Ukraine Is Breaking Russia’s War Machine | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

This week we break down the collapse of the Iran ceasefire talks, the escalating tit-for-tat strikes between Tehran and Washington, the fight over the Strait of Hormuz, and why the current MOU may be far more fragile than it appears. We also dive into the war in Ukraine, Russia's growing military and economic problems, the future of NATO support, and what these developments could mean for the broader geopolitical landscape GhostBed ⬇️ https://www.ghostbed.com/team FOR 10% off! Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Marc's new article: https://engelsbergideas.com/author/sam-worby-marc-polymeropoulos/ Subscribe to our newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join Jack's news outlet:⬇️ https://thehighside.substack.com/ Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️ Jon's Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Jon's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Jon's books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6 Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Whitefish security summit ⬇️ https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com Find Marc P here: https://x.com/Mpolymer Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio 00:00 — Start 01:13 — Iran-U. S. Strikes and the Ceasefire Falling Apart 02:43 — Israel-Lebanon Deal and Hezbollah’s Role 03:58 — CENTCOM’s Alternate Route Through Hormuz 05:20 — Why the U. S. Should Stop Giving Iran Financial Incentives 07:58 — Could an International Coalition Reopen the Strait? 09:06 — Why Any Iran Deal May Be Built on Shaky Ground 12:46 — A UN-Backed Hormuz Coalition? 17:33 — Oil Prices, Futures Markets, and the Real Risk Still Ahead 21:01 — Would the U. S. Really Pull Forces Away From Iran? 24:05 — The MOU’s Impossible Terms 25:51 — Why Public Negotiations Make the Deal Harder 27:43 — Trump’s Rhetoric and the Iran Negotiation Dynamic 32:20 — The Broken NSC Process and Bad Foreign Policy Planning 36:57 — Ukraine Starts Hitting Deeper Inside Russia 38:22 — Russia’s Meat Grinder Is Running Out of Meat 43:04 — Poland, the Baltics, and Russia’s Influence Operations 47:22 — Russia’s Fuel Shortages and Ukraine’s Oil Infrastructure Campaign 49:26 — General Donahue Pushed Out of Europe 52:35 — Final Thoughts and Closing Plugs Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

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• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:57Speaker 02

  Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here with Jonathan Hackett, Mick Mulroy, and might be joined by Andy Milburn, fingers crossed. Per usual, a lot happening, dizzying as ever. We left off yet last week, Vance and Kushner and Whitkoff are going to meet in Switzerland with the Iranian delegation to supposedly hammer out what comes next during the 60-day ceasefire. Obviously, that's not exactly happening. Over the last week, there's been, the Iranians hit a couple of commercial ships with some drones. We knocked down a drone out of the sky, and then we, and then we hit areas in southern Iran.

• 1:42Speaker 02

  Iran then shot, I might, I might be getting the timeline wrong, but like Iran shot drones and ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. So it very much doesn't seem like there's a ceasefire anymore. Israel and Lebanon made a deal. I don't know if Hezbollah is exactly game for this deal, doesn't sound like it. So there's a lot to be, a lot to be said. I mean, where are you guys tracking? What are you guys looking at? Hackett, you can go first.

• 2:10Speaker 03

  Well, it seems that the strikes back and forth between Iran and the United States are different than they were, obviously during the war, which was, you know, kind of an unrestrained military operation at that time. And now it's more tit for tat, which is actually very similar to what it looked like back in 2019, 2020, around the Qassem Soleimani strike. If people remember that time period, there was a lot of escalation in November and December, leading up to that, back and forth, increasing each time. And we kind of see something very similar right now, which is a little bit more choreographed, in my opinion, or at least telegraphed. These are not intended to cause wide scale damage or destruction to the other side. Instead, they're a messaging opportunity for each side to demonstrate to the other that there's resolve. And this is a key component of deterrence. You know, deterrence requires

• 2:53Speaker 03

  that the other side believes that the threat is credible. And the threat needs to be public. People need to know the threat exists. And so we kind of see that playing out right now. That's why these strikes are so small, precise, specific, on very narrow targets and not continuing after each one occurs. So I think that's how the best way to probably read that is a military extension or an operational extension of the discussions going on in Switzerland, to demonstrate both sides to each other that they're serious in both directions, serious about negotiating, but also serious about what happens if negotiations fall apart. And they have to both feel that they can keep up the reality that that's true on both sides.

• 3:32Speaker 02

  Make you there?

• 3:33Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 3:36Speaker 02

  Go ahead, go ahead. Yeah.

• 3:37Speaker 04

  Yeah. So I'll start with some positive. So obviously, there was a signing of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. I'd agree that Hezbollah is the problem here. But it, on the positive front, it does, it does specify the need to disarm Hezbollah and get Hezbollah above the Lutani River, which is required by UN resolution anyway. And I think it does recognize that the key factor in this is also a Iranian proxy. Right, so although Iran is demanding the stabilization of the Middle East,

• 4:22Speaker 04

  Iran is also the biggest destabilizing factor in the Middle East. It's kind of like, you know, starting the fire and then demanding it be put out and then somehow taking credit for at least the parts of the fire that were put out. Uh, but on the positive side, I think that was a good thing and hats off to Secretary Rubio for getting it to where it is. Uh, the other positive I would say is there does seem to be an attempt now led by CENTCOM uh, to create an alternative path through the Strait of Hormuz. That's obviously closer to Oman. That said, so that they can mitigate against this uh unwillingness by Iran

• 5:06Speaker 04

  to give up control of the straight, which they clearly are not, clearly, and have no intention to.

• 5:13Speaker 04

  Uh, however, I'm told by people who I have both served in the US Navy and are familiar with transiting there and in a commercial capacity, that it would only be available to use for outflow. Don't know why that's the case. If there's somebody that knows, I had to jump off the call with them, so I didn't get the details of why that's the case, but he said that that path out is could get the 500 plus ships that are stuck, but it can't be used, I think, in mass for inflow. If that's the case, uh, it would be interesting to hear exactly why. Maybe I'll give my friend a call after this.

• 5:55Speaker 04

  Again, but anyway, so that's somewhat positive. The negative is it looks like to me that Iran has no interest in even doing any part of the MOU except for take money. So I don't know how much we've given away already, but my advocacy would be stop. Don't give them any more money. Don't allow them to make any more money. Don't give them any more unfrozen access. Uh, and stop talking about 300 billion, which seems. I don't even know why that was ever the case. They need to preserve that capacity, that carrot, if you will, for an ironclad, verifiable, more restrictive JCPOA.

• 6:41Speaker 04

  Period. Because if we give all this upfront, it's just basic negotiations, right? They're going to have little to no incentive to enter another agreement. And everything they're saying says they're not going to enter agreement that's more restrictive than the JCPOA. They're saying, I mean, Poseschkin came out and said, "We are never going to give up in Richmond." Well, if I'm not going to give up in Richmond, you're not going to get a more restrictive JCPOA because it was already pretty restricted, you know, in there. So I would say, stop any money going to them. Potentially get ready because we still have the assets in place to blockade because they have not done anything. Anything that they were supposed to do under this agreement, which was very little.

• 7:23Speaker 04

  Open the strait, same status as for the war. They have not done. So I think we're in solid footing to say, well, well, then you're not getting into the benefits. And until we get through this nuclear discussions and we find out whether you're legitimately, genuinely negotiating or you're just stalling to the end of this administration, which I think many people think they're doing.

• 7:50Speaker 04

  You're not getting any financial incentive. In fact, we're going to re-impose sanctions. We're going to put more sanctions. So, and then I'd end with this, and I'd be interested to hear both your comments on this. There is a lot more discussions when I am talking particularly on foreign media of other countries being willing to join a coalition to open, force open the strait. I don't know if they necessarily, in the European countries specifically. I don't know if they necessarily mean use ground forces, but willing to contribute mine clearing, you know, capabilities. Many countries like Germany, for example, have that capability. There's two standing groups in NATO, for example. But there's more of a willingness to go, okay, didn't agree with the war, wasn't asked about the war,

• 8:36Speaker 04

  but the strait is international and it affects my people as much as it affects the Americans. I have to do something. I'm speaking as if I was a leader of one of these countries. So I think there is a, I think there's a growing.

• 8:52Speaker 04

  Potential that other countries could become involved because of the straight. We'll have to see what that means.

• 9:00Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think Japan is actually a key, you know, non European partner in this because they have mind clearing capabilities. And they also have operational experience, not only in the straight area, but in the Red Sea. So from south to north, all along the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula, their ships have sailed recently on counter piracy missions. In an integrated capacity with the, not only the UK maritime organization, but also the combined maritime task force, which is dozens and dozens of countries working together. So I think Japan would definitely be a key part of that, especially because Japan is suffering from this conflict, just like everyone else, obviously. But in particular, because of the energy squeeze on Japan, on their economy.

• 9:38Speaker 03

  So there is an incentive for them to want to participate, not just, you know, morally, but economically as well for the Japanese industrial capacity. That's an acute problem for them. But also going back to the agreement that you're talking about, Mick, there's a fundamental flaw in this agreement. No matter how brilliant this agreement comes, even if, let's say, the ideal situation happens and it suddenly flops, it flip flops over into this overwhelmingly positive thing for the United States and overwhelmingly negative for Iran. It's an executive agreement, not a treaty. And that means, just like the JCPOA, the next president could come in, crumple it up and throw it away. And you have to put yourself in the mind of the other side of the table. They know that.

• 10:20Speaker 03

  So they're worried about, you know, even if this deal turns out and they get the 300 billion, everything's great for Iran. That could all go away and get pulled away immediately. So if you're thinking like that pragmatically, you'd have to be setting up some kind of background structures to protect yourself. In the case that your negotiating counterpart pulls the rug out from under you. And that goes exactly to what Poseschkin is talking about with the enrichment. It would be unwise for them to stop enrichment even with this agreement, but it'd be even more unwise knowing that the agreement itself is on flimsy ground and will likely be changed in the next presidency. Even if a Republican comes in, it will still likely be changed because the current agreement is not popular with some of the Republican Party. So it's possible that no matter who-

• 11:03Speaker 04

  Secretary Rubio, right?

• 11:05Speaker 03

  Exactly.

• 11:06Speaker 04

  He doesn't look like-

• 11:06Speaker 03

  Yeah, so no matter who comes in-

• 11:08Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 11:09Speaker 03

  Exactly. No matter who comes in, it's going to get shaken up and changed in a negative way, probably to Iran. And so they're thinking about that. They're saying, what structures can we set up behind the scenes so that if and when this does happen, we're ready to survive again, to continue surviving? They're not stupid. We've seen this. They've demonstrated forethought, significant forethought over decades. Again, we mentioned this last episode. Some of the guys sitting at that table, like Araguchi, themselves have sat at the table with Americans in the last 20 years, every single time. So these are experienced negotiators. They've felt what it feels like when the US decides to reneg on a major agreement. They, they won't allow themselves to be left out in the cold, ever. And I don't think they ever have. They've always been preparing to be betrayed by the, by the other side. I mean, it's in their ideology that you can't trust the West, you can't trust Israel

• 11:53Speaker 03

  and all this, like that's built into their ideology. So even if the agreement was pure and true, they still wouldn't believe it. So you have to expect that they're setting things up in the background. And we, as pragmatic thinkers in, you know, the US government, especially in the intel side, have to be thinking about what things are-

• 12:11Speaker 03

  just in case this agreement doesn't happen. And a lot of those things look like surrogate forces, uh, special ways of using the economy to continue having access to cash, uh, the ability to keep the shadow fleet going. Because right now, we've removed a lot of the, the restrictions on their ability to ship oil. So we're allowing them to make money off of the oil that we have said was the terrible thing for them to do, and we're letting them do that now. Well, they're not going to just stop using their shadow fleet. They're going to continue using the shadow fleet and use regular commercial fleets. It, it would not make sense for them to suddenly just pull the plug on this elaborate system of clandestine shipping and receiving and financial assets that they've, they've spent blood on and treasure on. They're not giving that up. And it would be very naive of us on this side of the negotiating table to think that that's true.

• 12:53Speaker 03

  And so there has to be something on the West side, not just the United States, but also Europe, European partners. And as you mentioned, any, you know, international partners like Japan or South Korea, coming together to ensure that even if this agreement gets crumpled up, there are structures on our side in place that are going to help preserve our position there too. Because that energy- Value is not going away anytime soon. Even if we completely change to electric vehicles, you still require petroleum to make plastics. A lot of the crude oil that China was using was not for energy. It was for producing plastics, like things you buy on Amazon. That's what that crude oil is for. And until we find a solution to replace that, we're kind of still dependent on that strait until we change otherwise.

• 13:36Speaker 04

  So on that point, Jonathan, I think there is a provision in the MOU, if I recall, where the agreement would be also

• 13:47Speaker 04

  validated with the UN Security Council. So I think they are concerned about the very issue that you brought up, which is obviously the case because we tore it up in 2018 or threw it away.

• 14:02Speaker 04

  The other thing, and I don't know if this would work, but what if the UN passed a resolution specifically calling for a coalition to open the strait? And countries did contribute to a maritime

• 14:17Speaker 04

  coalition that simply went through the strait, collected all the 500-plus ships and left. I mean, would Iran, obviously risky, and I don't know that this is just simply a hypothetical because I don't know that any countries would do it, but say they would. They're not attacking Iran. They're simply going through an international waterway to ensure it's open so they can get their oil that's going to go to their country, right? Would Iran attack? Would they, you know, it's coming down. It's coming down the Red Sea. It's coming down, it's going in the Gulf of Oman. It's getting closer to the strait. Would Iran attack a blue-flagged international coalition of countries who aren't part of the war,

• 14:59Speaker 04

  that are simply going into the Persian Gulf to collect and escort these ships out? And then they just keep doing it. They keep bringing ships in and out. Would Iran be willing to then turn its military efforts against an international coalition?

• 15:16Speaker 03

  I think the only way that would be successful is if Pakistan was a key member of that fleet. And another point is that the UN has only done, I believe, 13 missions like this, like Unisam in Somalia, Manousma in Mali, for example, and the Operation Unifil on in northeast Israel, Lebanon, Syria region. And UN DAF, another force as well. I believe there have been only 13 since 1946. So it takes a lot of political will, first of all, to even have it structured. And then for it to function, that's a whole separate issue. In Mali in particular, which was the most recent one that I participated in, it was a very challenging, to say the least, operation to hold these forces together to actually do something toward a shared outcome.

• 16:00Speaker 03

  Because they kind of don't put their individual state interests aside when they go in there. So I'd be interested to analyze that more. But as I mentioned with Pakistan, that's important because right now Pakistan is really the only actor that has a navy that can contribute because Qatar doesn't really Bahrain doesn't really Bahrain wouldn't participate anyway. Qatar might, but Pakistan needs to contribute fleet forces. And also put the imprimatur of an actual international force rather than a US backed force. This is very important here. So that would need to occur. But going again to the fundamental weakness of even this, if this is a good idea, but look at UNSCR 1701, which is the 2006 ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. That was supposed to see the withdrawal of Hezbollah from the south.

• 16:45Speaker 03

  The Lebanese Armed Forces were supposed to come in and replace them. Both Israel and Hezbollah have violated different components of 1701. And right now they're firing at each other. I mean, this is what 20 years later. That and that UNSCR 1701 is only a page long. It's not complicated. So even if the UN did come together, the Security Council did come together. That would be a good show of unity, which also is something that we do need these days. Maybe a UN General Assembly plus Security Council Joint Resolution, something like this would be helpful to show unity. But in the end, we need the political will for it to actually be carried out. And it seems that that will isn't there yet.

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• 20:30Speaker 04

  Yeah, I don't think it's a magic bullet, but the current situation isn't working. So if it's not working, it's time for other ideas, in my opinion. And if that's, if, even if the resolution itself sent a message, and then there was an armada that went down there, I'd just be interested to see, because they're already shooting at commercial ships, right? So it can't get much worse than that. They're shooting at unarmed civilians. And somebody's gonna get, I mean, we're gonna have a mass casualty event here pretty soon.

• 20:58Speaker 03

  And these civilians are just, these are mariners. These are guys from the Philippines, you know, from, from Seychelles. Yeah, they're, they're, they're in a tough spot anyway, and they're stuck on this giant vessel. If any of the listeners have ever been on one of these huge container ships, it's very lonely. There's like 13 people on this giant, giant object at sea. It's, it's, it's terrible. And imagine also living under the threat that you might get bombed any day just for being in the water and you have nothing to do with it, you know? It's, it's gotta be tough for them.

• 21:27Speaker 02

  John, let me ask you, we've seen like oil prices go down somewhere around 70, 75 bucks. Is that showing up in like Japan, South Korea, like where they're really affected? Because I remember we were talking about it, their, their price per oil back when this was really going hot was, you know, 160 bucks a barrel or something like that. Are they seeing relief in terms of prices? Or is that just like the market being the market and not really? You know, showing like what the reality is and like on the ground.

• 21:59Speaker 03

  Well, you have to remember that oil is a commodity, so it's sold on futures, not on current value. So what you're seeing is the future assumptions about the market that these people purchasing these futures are making. So they think that, for example, in 60 days or a year, and it's actually the one year Brent crude benchmark you should look at, like, what do people think will be going on one year from now? And it's slightly higher, I think, than current futures of like normal oil futures that everyone's looking at, which means people are not pricing their risk out as much as we might feel like they are. The other thing is that as summer goes through, oil prices will decrease just because the blends for summer crude change. And we're kind of coming up on that period. The other very important

• 22:40Speaker 03

  economic component to match up to these futures pricing is we're about to end a quarter, fiscal quarter. We're about to enter the summertime, and we're about to see some huge earnings on tech get released. And there was just massive sell offs on tech the past month and a half. That looked like kind of a downward trend there. Those things are all going to conspire together because these things are all backed by energy requirements. So if risk comes up anywhere, that energy area, the tech, the chips, the AI area, which is, you know, massive component of the market right now, is going to react in a way that's that's higher than than should be. In other words, they're more risk sensitive currently because there are more difficult to measure factors that are affecting these prices.

• 23:22Speaker 03

  And I think there's a lot of hope right now with people. They think that we might be on the way to something. But remember, we're only in the first week and a half of a 60 day negotiating window. And as we get closer to that midpoint and toward the endpoint, especially toward August, people will begin to notice more of a reality in front of them rather than a dream. So if the negotiations don't appear to be improving well, I think you'll see oil futures go back up again, obviously, even before they're over, before the negotiations are over, because the risk will find the correct balance point within the market. That's that's more likely what's going to happen. But Unless something goes on like Mick mentioned with the securing of the straits with a maritime organization, I don't think the oil will be able to recover to pre-war levels soon.

• 24:04Speaker 03

  Because the new risk that's in there, even if if hostilities go away completely and sustainably, the new problem is that Iran is going to exact tolls on vessels. That could be direct tolls as they've been advertising, or it could be indirect through kind of off-market exchanges between Iranian activity and other country activity, where there's this kind of in-kind requirement that if you want to pass through the straits, you have to do something for us, but it's not going to be on the balance sheet. So there might be some of that going on as well, which has to get priced into that oil price, you know, so that's it's all getting stacked onto that one barrel of oil costs more because there are more things affecting that barrel as it passes through. So that's something to think about, too. There are these exogenous or outside factors

• 24:46Speaker 03

  that are not energy related and not war related that are going to be baked into that barrel estimate.

• 24:54Speaker 04

  You know, there's another thing that came up this week that I've gotten pinged a lot about that isn't talked about as much as, say, the strait itself, or, you know, what's going on in Lebanon, is there's a component of the agreement that says the US is going to pull their military, our military, from the proximity of Iran. Well,

• 25:17Speaker 04

  my friends that are in the proximity of Iran include our friends, I should say, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia even, I suppose.

• 25:30Speaker 04

  That's a big win for Iran. It's a big loss for those countries. At the same time,

• 25:37Speaker 04

  apparently, we're asking those countries to pay to reconstruct the very country that attacked them. And then we're going to leave. So if we go with the letter of the MOU itself, I don't know what else would be the proximity of Iran. Maybe I'm misreading it, but I think most people would say, these countries are right across.

• 25:56Speaker 04

  The straight, right? UAE is right there. So and then Qatar is right there. So that's got to be the proximity. Are we really planning to do that? And if we are, why?

• 26:07Speaker 03

  The other question is, Turkey is a NATO ally, and we have Indralik base, a US occupied NATO base that's on the like, Turkey shares a border that it's actually Turkey's border with Iran is the oldest border that exists in the world. It's an interesting factoid. And that border is a NATO Iran border. Are we are we thinking we're going to withdraw from Turkey? I don't think so.

• 26:31Speaker 04

  No way. And why would we withdraw from these places? Because Iran wants us to. That's why we want to be there. You know, I mean, literally, if they're that concerned, we should go, well, then we're definitely not doing it. And let's remember, when it comes to US presence overseas, yes, it does benefit the country. Nothing wrong with that. But it's for our own purposes. It gives us the ability to project power around the world. If we want to be the global, you know, power center of the world, we have to have that ability. Not that we want to run around starting wars, but we want to have the capacity to surge the places. So these, these are our benefit to

• 27:11Speaker 04

  benefit us. Same with in Europe, right? It's not a charity case for Europe. It's not a charity case for the Middle East. But it seems that we've given away our ability to stay in the proximity of Iran. And there's nobody talking about it, except for the countries that assume that's means them. So this is going to be if we get through a lot of these more difficult things, say, for example, Iran just gives up their ability to control straight. I don't think they're going to do it, but say they do. Say peace breaks out in Lebanon. Great. We still got plenty of big hurdles to get through. And that's a big one. And so is the 300 billion, which I still can't imagine any country is going to contribute to.

• 27:58Speaker 02

  Doesn't that just add to like the uh the thinking that from some people, my kind of myself included, that the MOU is kind of, at least some of the bits of it are kind of bullshit. Like, we're never gonna fucking back out of like Kuwait or any of our bases in and around the region, ever. Like, that's never gonna happen.

• 28:20Speaker 02

  So like, and like you mentioned, the $300 billion reconstruction fund. These things sound like pie in the sky, like nonsense, frankly. You know what I mean? To be, I mean, from a layman, at least watching this, I mean, you guys are practitioners, you guys are experts. Like, you tell me, these things seem like tasks that are literally impossible. Or like, are just, are deal breakers for either side, really. Because like you said, Iran's not gonna give up the strait.

• 28:49Speaker 04

  Yeah. I mean, think about it, when a country wins a war, they don't negotiate the terms. They dictate them, right? When a country wins the war, they don't pay to reconstruct the other country unless they have removed their adversary. So you could say, oh, the Marshall Plan. Yeah, that's because we took out Nazi Germany, right? We weren't paying Nazis to stay in place to reconstruct the country. You see what I mean? Like, so this is not how, and I don't think the US has to do this. My point is not to say we lost. My point is, like, we don't have an obligation to do any of this stuff. We don't have an obligation to reconstruct their country with the regime still in place.

• 29:33Speaker 04

  That's simply gonna make sure the regime stays in place forever. Don't know why we would do that.

• 29:41Speaker 03

  I think also, it's a reflection of this very public negotiation going on, where normally, these kind of maximalist positions would be the, the things that define the edges of what's going to be discussed. That would happen privately, in a, in a, you know, secret setting. Could be in Switzerland like it was in 2015 and before 2015, leading up to that. You know, there were days and days when John Kerry and Zarif, the Foreign Minister of Iran at the time, took walks together privately and discussed the terms without notes, without secretaries, without recording it. It was all private and it was carefully, quietly done so that they could just speak together as representatives of their countries to their interests without anyone noticing that because I'm sure there were some crazy terms in that discussion as

• 30:26Speaker 03

  well. But those crazy terms kind of fall away into the background and they're the backdrop of what we're going to get to later. And if you've studied, you know, like best alternative to a negotiated outcome and zone of primary agreement and all these like concepts of negotiation. There's, there's a big piece that one side comes in with another piece the other side comes in with and they don't all align together. It's not a Venn diagram. Instead, there's this place in between where they're supposed to meet at. That shouldn't be public because once it's public, now you're involving many other individuals, any other entities who also share opinions and beliefs and then exert pressure on the negotiators, which pulls away the power the negotiators are supposed to have to clandestinely or secretly discuss the terms outside of the public view. It's important for transparency. It's important that we all understand like how this agreement gets reached. But in the moment that that's

• 31:11Speaker 03

  happening, it's actually better to have it quiet, just like covert operations. You don't need to tell everyone what every covert operation is. There's, there are transparency mechanisms built in to help make sure there is oversight, but it shouldn't be just completely in the open all the time because that, that takes away the power of doing it that way, just like negotiations between states also.

• 31:33Speaker 02

  Question for you guys. What happens to those negotiations when people show up on Sunday in Switzerland just to continue them and like get to the next step? And the big boss of one country tweets out or Truth Social's out that he's gonna, he's gonna wipe everybody out or, you know, some extremely threatening tweet. Of course, yeah, no, this is a hypothetical. This is a thought, this is a thought exercise. It didn't actually happen last week. What, what do you think happens in that like whole?

• 32:06Speaker 04

  Like the Iranians thinking, I mean, I know I've read that the Iranians have like psychologists to try and understand like how Trump thinks and how he operates and stuff like that, which if you find a psychologist that could figure that out, you know, they should be, you know, you know, give them some kind of prize. But yeah, what happens to the dynamics of the negotiation when something like that happens?

• 32:30Speaker 03

  I think very little happens because we are seeing the English language, things that are said that Trump says, for example, in Iranian media, they do the exact same thing. They say very similar things. And it's, for example, after Qassem Soleimani was assassinated, there was a lot of this like, we will punch America in the nose, that they would say in Farsi, and like, they were going to bloody America, and like, a lot of these statements. And it wasn't like, low level people saying that, it was the president, it was the foreign minister, it was the IRGC commander. And they're still doing it now. And you'll see this in Farsi, they're talking as if they've defeated the US, they've torn the US down. If you look at the imagery in Tehran, where they have these regime sponsored graffiti artists, if you see like, it looks like aircraft carriers destroyed, there's one that has like a rope tied around an aircraft carrier, like pulling it in half. So they have their

• 33:15Speaker 03

  own rhetoric in Farsi going on, but all we're seeing is the English side. That doesn't mean we should match their rhetoric. In fact, I don't think that's probably helpful. But I'm just saying that it might, in context, it may not be as extreme as we measure, but it's also not helpful.

• 33:32Speaker 04

  And I, I mean, it's not helpful, I agree with Jonathan. I do think there's so much of it now, that it's kind of just become background noise. And I say that because, you know, when you say stuff like, I'm going to wipe out your civilization, that's, that's pretty, you know, hyperbolic. But when you say that every Tuesday, it becomes like,

• 33:55Speaker 04

  right? So even when I'm on, you know, I use this as examples, because I tend to get more feedbacks. I'm usually on when I do the foreign thing with Iranians.

• 34:04Speaker 04

  When they start saying, oh, President Trump said that even the host interrupts and says, "Look, if we're going to talk about everything President Trump says, that's all we're going to talk about. Like, we're not, we're not, we're not even going to go into like that was inappropriate stuff, because it's, it's, it's just going to happen again and again and again and again. And therefore, it's not even, we never address the substance of it." From their perspective, right? You see what I mean? Like, the host doesn't even want to talk about it anymore, because then that's all we do on their program. Let's talk about that. So I think even the Iranians, they'll use it to their benefit, right? But if they take it too serious, well, maybe. I mean, we did start our decapitation strikes between

• 34:47Speaker 04

  Friday and Monday. We're supposed to be on Monday. So, but I think, you know, when it comes to the rhetoric, even if it's unhelpful, and I'm sure the Secretary of State would say it is, if he could, but I just don't think it's having that big of an impact. I just don't think.

• 35:04Speaker 04

  We're gonna, you know, if you don't do this, we're gonna, you know, start the war over, and we're gonna blow your country into oblivion. I just, I just think they just, just.

• 35:15Speaker 02

  Isn't that, doesn't that kind of say something else about like how fundamentally broken this reality is that we're living in? Because like, back in the day, not even back in the day, like literally, you know, last term or during Obama or Bush, if a president made a statement like that, or any kind of statement that the president makes carries, used to carry a ton of weight. And now it's just like, oh yeah, that's like our crazy granddad that's like out of his mind. But it happens to be the leader of the free world, the guy making, the actually making the decision, right? Like, the fact is, this shit went down because Bibi came for a PowerPoint, and then five guys in the Situation Room figured,

• 35:55Speaker 02

  "Let's bomb Iran. Let's, and not just bomb Iran, let's take out the top 40 of the entire hierarchy, hierarchy. And just see where everything lands afterwards, when the smoke settles, you know, and here we are." So, I mean,

• 36:10Speaker 02

  I don't know.

• 36:10Speaker 04

  There's two parts. There's the actual decision and then there's a rhetoric. As far as rhetoric, I mean, if you're, if somebody was asking me, I, I go with Teddy Roosevelt, right? Walk softly and carry a big stick. Um, but obviously that's not the current thought process of the administration. So, and they're, they're not asking me. So it is what it is, but the, the, the decision process, I think, would be greatly helped, to your point, Dee, by expanding it back to what it always has been, which is a process. The National Security Council, uh, was, is a process that has input from, uh, several different levels, expertise,

• 36:50Speaker 04

  diplomacy, military, intelligence, economic. Uh, I think we'd be helped by that, rather than just people who feel like they have to agree in a very limited.

• 37:01Speaker 03

  It seems that the process is not working. I mean, and we see that because this kind of whipsaw behavior with foreign policy where it seems like there's one thought that's executed. It didn't work out well. They didn't like it. So they stopped. They'll try something new. And there's a lot of this kind of testing of policy in real, real time. Normally that testing of policy would happen in discussions in the NSC where someone would bring that up and they'd war game it. They'd talk through it and they'd find out like, oh, there's a weakness here in that execution pathway. We need to rethink how we're going to get there. And it wouldn't happen in, in the real world normally. But it seems that that is actually happening now where they're testing out policy decisions by making them, by doing them, which is obviously backwards.

• 37:43Speaker 04

  Yeah. Just to give a short example of what Jonathan's talking about. Okay. We decide to go to war. What's likely to happen? The strait's going to get closed. The intelligence community is going to say, yes, that's likely to happen. So you have to go with that assumption. Okay. So the strait is closed. Are we, what do we have to do to open the strait if they want to open it? Well, we're going to have to use ground forces. Are we willing to do that? Yes or no? No. Okay. So then we're going to do a blockade. What effect will the blockade have on the regime? How long will it take to have the, the actual effect that we want? Are we willing to wait that long? Will we take the economic pressure? And if the answer is no, right, it. I know that's not, you know, super sophisticated, but ultimately that's what is discussed in

• 38:27Speaker 04

  the National Security Council. Are we willing to take that pain? No. Well, then rethink the whole thing. Or, you know, it's, it's that kind of scenario, the constituency plans, whether we're willing to do it. What is it? The enemy's most likely course of action, most dangerous course of action. It's basic military planning, to be honest, but they do it at a, at an interagency level in the NSC. And everybody weighs in because there's expertise like for the, like the Energy Department, Treasury Department, they have a lot of input into things that you don't necessarily think of as a military person, but then you're like, oh. And then other things we can do to amp up pressure that could have been an alternative to strikes.

• 39:10Speaker 04

  Those kinds of things. And it's not like it's over, you know, as, as we talk about every week, I want the US to come out ahead. So it's not over. We still have a chance to get a better nuclear agreement, um, which is good for the world, but we're going to have to probably do, we're going to have to do something different because it doesn't seem be heading in that direction. They seem to be saying, not going to punch on anything. There's not even real discussions about recovering the HEU, which, you know, the Vice President said was in the MOU.

• 39:45Speaker 03

  Yeah, more likely we're going to have to have an Adams for Peace type, you know, Eisenhower outcome where they're allowed to continue using what they have under very strict supervision and guardrails and different agreements with various countries. China in particular is very interested in small modular reactors, SMRs, that they've been building in the Middle East and North Africa and things. And I think that probably to get true international buy-in, you're going to need China or Russia, Rosatom, for example, to come in with the US and actually agree to monitor and work with the Iranian program. That's probably the most realistic. It might not be ideal or what we want, but to actually get it back again under scrutiny, that's probably what's going to have to happen.

• 40:26Speaker 04

  Perfect be the enemy.

• 40:28Speaker 02

  Yep. So a lot's going to be happening. We're going to keep an eye on it. And obviously, this is probably going to be a lead off discussion again next week.

• 40:37Speaker 02

  If I had a bet. All right, moving on to Ukraine and Russia. We've seen over the last, you know, several weeks. Russia's air defense is either severely depleted, or they're moving them around because they don't know where Ukraine's going to hit next. You've seen a lot of hits in Moscow. Super far and super deep. Crimea is getting pounded as well. So there's a lot going on there. Over the last week as well, our last few days. The Russian delegation or, you know, Putin was in a closed door meeting with Lukashenko. Talking about what? I don't know. I mean, Lukashenko is being the president of Belarus or the dictator Belarus.

• 41:19Speaker 02

  I don't know if they're asking, he's trying to push him to join the fight, get some Belarusian. Soldiers in on it. I don't know. But it obviously seems like, I don't know if the tide's turning in Ukraine. But Russia does not seem like this unstoppable force. They really haven't for four years, but. You know, to see Moscow get peppered like they did. It's pretty incredible, frankly, and it's something we haven't seen before. So, you know, where are you guys at on this? What do you guys like tracking?

• 41:52Speaker 04

  So to start with, and we share this in our group chat.

• 41:57Speaker 04

  The average life expectancy now for a Russian recruit is three weeks from when they walk through. They stand on their version of the yellow footprints. If you've been to Paris Island, you know what I'm talking about. They're dead. It's literally minutes once they get into combat. Right? So the meat grinder is running out of meat. The meat grinder is running out of meat. I think you're muted there, buddy. I can't hear you. Can you hear him, gentlemen?

• 42:22Speaker 03

  I can't hear Dee. I see his mouth moving.

• 42:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, we're a little, you're a little choppy, Mick, so I have my mic muted. Uh, just repeat what you were saying from when they first get in the average lifespan of a new soldier in Russia.

• 42:33Speaker 04

  Yes, so there was a study, uh, I think a well sourced one, that for when a soldier is taken from his, you know, village in Russia, it enters into training, he has three weeks and he'll be dead. Three weeks, that's the average. Uh, they have minutes, it's like twenty seven minutes is the average soldier's life expectancy once they engage in combat. So the meat grinder is running out of meat. Uh, even if you don't care, which Putin obviously doesn't care about the next generation of Russian males, um, they're still gonna run out. They're just not gonna be.

• 43:11Speaker 04

  And this is at the same time when the capacity, not only the, the actual capabilities of these really sophisticated drones are increasing, but their, um, their quantity is also increasing substantially. Like they're producing more drones every day than they did the day before. So think about it, just running out of soldiers. But at the same time, Ukraine is, and you already mentioned it Dee, they're getting, they're striking further into Russia, which is where all of their significant logistical facilities are on purpose, right? Cause they didn't think they could be hit. There, there's a state of emergency in Crimea for the same reasons.

• 43:55Speaker 04

  And that's gonna get more and more challenging. And quite frankly, if they could take Kursk Bridge out for weeks at a time, not just days, and potentially block the ground corridor that the Russians have, um, that's gonna seriously challenge Russians' ability to stay in Crimea. So talk about a shift right now that's going on. We're talking about Iran all the time. And maybe it's a good thing, cause this is just happening anyway. Ukraine is shifting the tide. I don't want to overstate it and say like, you know, they're gonna throw them out tomorrow, probably not. But the tide is shifting. So there's one of two things can happen. It can keep shifting and then potentially, hopefully, uh, Putin's deposed and cooler heads there, uh, step in. Or Putin does a crazy Ivan.

• 44:41Speaker 04

  And goes, I don't know what he can do, but he could seriously escalate, start, you know, using tactical nukes. I don't know. Hopefully that's not the case. The, the West needs to be very specific now. We are going to support Ukraine even more. And by the way, the US is doing basically nothing. We're basically just allowing them to buy some of our stuff. That's nothing essentially. But we could double down on it. We could increase our support. Obviously, there's support for that in Congress across the aisle. Double down and say Putin, the only way out of this is immediate ceasefire negotiations, period. If not, we're just going to increase our

• 45:21Speaker 04

  support and we're going to increase the economic consequences to you. That's what we should be doing now. If not, I think Putin's going to probably go with the extreme option because he doesn't, he doesn't see another way out of it. I don't know what that extreme option is, but it could drag in other countries into war. That's why you're seeing countries like Moldova's. I think they're talking about joining, um, Tommy, there's the country they're talking about. That's right. It's for some reason, can't remember the name of the country, but it's the other countries in NATO. All right. So that, there's other things that are happening right

• 46:02Speaker 04

  now that are prepping for this. It's either going to turn to something that's what we want to see, like a negotiated into this settlement, probably more in line with what General Kellogg was proposing a long time ago. If you remember, a long time being a couple of years ago, or Putin's going to do a crazy Ivan and literally do something extreme. And that could push this into expanded war into NATO countries if we don't want that.

• 46:31Speaker 03

  Yeah, in particular, Poland, if you've seen recently, there's a little spat between Zelensky and Tusk, the Polish president. And I'm curious if there is some Russian influence operation in there to amplify that and make it worse, because I think what Russia wants most is for less European countries to support Ukraine. They already got their success with the US supporting Ukraine less. And I'm curious if that is kind of a pocket that they're trying to exploit now because they are running out of new options. And so perhaps they're trying to do more of dividing support so that there's less for Ukraine to have. The problem is that Ukraine now has the largest ground force in Europe. It's a seasoned combat force. It has the ability

• 47:15Speaker 03

  to act autonomously. There are needs for support for sure, but the Ukraine today is not the Ukraine four years ago. And so it's kind of too late, I think, for Russia to try to exert those influence operations, especially on Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, which is kind of that that area that they are targeting because it's the near enemy for them. And those countries are concerned about what Russia will do next. And even a few months ago, before the tables had started turning, those three countries, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, were very concerned about being next. And I think Russia wanted them to be next. But since things are changing, Putin has to think about how can I still exploit that northern pocket, probably through influence operations against Poland. And

• 47:56Speaker 03

  as you know, Polish history, Poland has routinely been invaded by the East and West over time. It's very difficult for Poland to retain its territorial integrity, mostly due to its terrain structure. And so that's very hard for Poland, and Poland's acutely aware of that. And so Russia is kind of probably pushing that button a little bit domestically in Poland to create some tension between those erstwhile allies between Ukraine and Poland, one being a EU member and one not being a EU member. So I think that's a place Putin's trying to acutely influence. The problem is, there's a lot to focus on. As you mentioned, Crimea has become a problem that was originally an asset.

• 48:36Speaker 03

  And it's now becoming a weight that's pulling down attention southeast out of out of the combat area that Putin wanted to have. And that's going to be an interesting development. And as you mentioned with the bridge, that's infrastructure, that's a fixed target. So if you're creative, you can find new ways to go after it, even if it becomes hardened or defended well, there will be ways to destroy it because it's a fixed target. So that's going to be a challenge for them and a very expensive challenge for them to defend. And it will be a low cost relative, low cost thing to to attack and destroy.

• 49:11Speaker 04

  Romania, that's the country I couldn't remember. Moldova, and I think there's support from both sides. So from the Moldavian population and the Romanian to join.

• 49:24Speaker 03

  Problem with Moldova is that Transnistria is one of those frozen conflict zones that Russia invaded and occupied and still occupies illegally.

• 49:30Speaker 04

  That's right.

• 49:31Speaker 03

  And it's the same concern that Georgia has. If you drive down to Blyssy, there's all kinds of, there's actually a NATO office in Tbilisi because Georgia wants to join NATO. And both Georgia and Moldova have this Russian pocket inside their territory that's occupied by Russian forces to the state.

• 49:50Speaker 04

  So what will happen to that pocket if they join? Do you think anything?

• 49:54Speaker 03

  So the problem is they cannot join until that's released. Right. So the thing is that you have to have complete territorial integrity to join NATO. Now, this was a question because Cyprus joined, even though it's split in half by Turkey, but that was kind of put to the side.

• 50:09Speaker 02

  Don't get me crazy, John. You're getting me trying to set me off.

• 50:15Speaker 03

  Yeah, otherwise that has been followed. That rule has been followed. So countries have to have their territorial integrity, which is a reason that that Russia wanted to keep Crimea occupied, even if they lost all of Ukraine, they wanted to keep Crimea because that would exclude Ukraine from joining NATO and joining the EU if Russian forces occupied Crimea. So similar with Moldova, Moldova would have to shake that Russian occupation or surrender that territory to Russia, which is not going to happen. So there's there's those two options. Otherwise, they can't join.

• 50:44Speaker 02

  What do you guys, oh, and the other thing we didn't mention? That's been all over like the internet and stuff is showing like all the fuel shortages in Russia. You know, people fighting on fuel lines and stuff like that. And like, like, you know, wasn't it John McCain who said like they're a gas station? With nuclear weapons or whatever like, you know.

• 51:01Speaker 04

  Gas station with an army. Yeah.

• 51:02Speaker 02

  Yeah. So it's pretty incredible to see. There are also talks, supposedly they're gonna have some closed door talks Monday, starting tomorrow. Um, about stopping the export of diesel from Russia out. I guess to save it and ration it, which is fucking incredible and insane to see. So you're seeing the Ukrainian. You know, they've been, they've been targeting oil infrastructure for months now and uh. You're really seeing it kind of pay off. And I cannot believe it's like. People are probably walking around like it's a fucking funeral in the Kremlin or wherever Putin's bunker is, you know, like. Who's gonna tell him the bad news and all, you know, things to that nature. So.

• 51:44Speaker 02

  You know, I would lock my windows if I'm like a high up fucking Russian official or something like that. Cause who knows if you're gonna get tossed out of a window or not in the next, you know, coming months. It's, it's a pretty wild scene what's going on.

• 51:58Speaker 04

  That would be an indicator. We start seeing a lot of uh senior people get killed. It's either a coup was attempted. Or that probably means that to be frank, because he tried to get ahead of it. By taking him out. I mean, ultimately they can do it, right? If you got the right people, they could. Putin, you know, he has the levers, but if the lever is not working for him anymore, they could turn it against him. And it's in their own country's interest. And quite frankly, it would be an absolute gift to this generation that's being an highlight.

• 52:31Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 52:32Speaker 04

  Um. And Ukraine too.

• 52:35Speaker 02

  Right. Anything else you guys want to touch on before we, we move on?

• 52:41Speaker 02

  About Ukraine and Russia? Did I miss anything? I mean, that's pretty much general what I was saying, but.

• 52:47Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 52:48Speaker 03

  Well, General Donahue got forced out of Europe, most likely because of disagreements on either NATO policy or Ukraine policy, in my opinion.

• 52:57Speaker 02

  That's why you think, yeah, yeah.

• 52:59Speaker 04

  Great American there. Big, big loss for the US military. Well-known, super respected, and the special operations community, including inside the agencies.

• 53:13Speaker 04

  I mean, the guy did everything. He was a troop commander, squadron commander, unit commander of the army component of JSOC. He, you know, 82nd Airborne Commanding General. I mean, the guy was just a, a

• 53:28Speaker 04

  great American, selfless service. And the idea that he was just, he was going to be the next Army Chief of Staff. Um, and I know people who would know, and they told me he was going to be the next Army Chief Staff.

• 53:43Speaker 04

  So, big loss, big loss. I don't know how that works now. I think he, there's an issue of keeping his four-star because when he retires, the guy needs to be able to. And I know this is, seems forever, but he'll probably move on with his life. I hope he comes back. And, and, and, and I don't know if that's possible, but obviously the current acting, or not acting, the current, uh, Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff was retired before he became the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. So maybe CD could do the same thing.

• 54:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, and for everybody else, like, uh, you know, who doesn't know the inside inner workings of the Pentagon, who exactly General Donahue is, uh, the famous picture of him walking onto the, either was C-17 or whatever, getting, uh, leaving Afghanistan. So he was technically the last boots on the ground from our 20-year adventure in Afghanistan. Um, yeah, it's pretty incredible on a guy like that gets, uh, gets pushed out. And frankly, like John, if you're, if you're thinking that's because of, you know, strategy in Ukraine. I don't understand, I don't see where the, the downside is of helping Ukraine. Okay, if you don't want to give them $100 billion a year, fine, but like more than what we're doing right now, I don't understand where the friction is.

• 55:06Speaker 02

  I mean, I do understand, obviously, we all know why, but I'm saying like, it just doesn't make sense.

• 55:13Speaker 04

  At one point, since you brought it up rightfully, I'd like to say for those that are blaming General Donahue on like the accident of Afghanistan. Um, one, the military doesn't make policy. Two, he was sent there after the decision was made. And it was actually, it was already going down. Um, he made the best that he could of the situation he was in. Period. So blaming him for it is just, in my opinion, nonsensical. Not that many people are.

• 55:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah.

• 55:47Speaker 04

  That is an issue. Uh, in my opinion, it's not. He was simply ordered and he did the best with what he had.

• 55:54Speaker 02

  Yeah. And if anyone's uh confused as to what I'm talking about in terms of uh, it's because this administration for some reason or other kowtows to the Putin regime. Uh, and does everything it can to make it as easy as possible for Putin to get what he wants. Or placate him at the very minimum, placate him and it's a fucking disgrace. Let's be honest. Just, I just want to make sure there's nobody confused about how I feel.

• 56:24Speaker 02

  Yeah. All right, boys. Uh, if there's anything else, this is great. Um, we'll do the plugs. Look at John's beautiful background, too. You can grab his two books, Theory of a Regular War and Iran's Shadow Weapons. So the reason why he did that is for me to be able to plug it and remember the titles of the books, which I appreciate, John. Thank you.

• 56:43Speaker 04

  I plug those here.

• 56:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 56:45Speaker 03

  Thank you.

• 56:46Speaker 02

  Mick, the Whitefish Security Summit happening in February of 2027. Check that out. That link is in the description. Uh, Mick's got a great podcast called The Pub on the Porch, Applied Stoicism. All those links are in the description. If you want to find these guys on LinkedIn or Twitter or wherever else, everything's there. And help support the show, go to patreon.com slash the team house. Please, you get ad free episodes. And early episodes, like you'll get this episode earlier than the uh, than the regular people. So we appreciate and we appreciate the continued support. Thank you, guys. Guys, happy Sunday. Go get them.

• 57:23Speaker 02

  Punish the enemy. That's what me and my friends say in our group chat in the morning. Later.

• 57:33Jack Murphy?

  Hey guys, I want to take a moment to tell you about the Team House Podcast Newsletter. If you go and subscribe, it's totally free and what it will do is aggregate all of our data, all of our content that we put out, the things that are on the Team House, on our geopolitics podcast, Eyes On, things that I write journalistically with Sean Naylor on the high side, anything else that we have going on, books we recommend, upcoming guests that we have coming on the show and also filtering in some fun stuff in there as well. If you go and check it out, we send it out just once a week. We don't want to spam you guys. It's just a kind of roll up of all of our content on a weekly basis.

• 58:17Jack Murphy?

  You can find our newsletter at teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join. Again, the website for that is teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join. So we hope to see you there. The link will be down.

• 58:32Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down rather than giving teens the answer. Study mode helps teens work through problems and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 59:00Speaker 01

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 59:29Jack Murphy?

  The description.

• 59:36Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:00:03Speaker 01

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:00:40Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:01:08Speaker 01

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:01:45Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:02:13Speaker 07

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:02:50Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.com/parents to learn more.

• 1:03:18Speaker 01

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:03:54Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:04:21Speaker 01

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:04:58Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:05:26Speaker 07

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:06:02Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:06:30Speaker 01

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses, like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:07:07Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems, and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options, like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:07:34Speaker 07

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Covers seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:08:11Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:08:39Speaker 01

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:09:08Speaker 00

  ChatGPT for Teens is designed to help teens learn, think critically, and grow their skills. ChatGPT for Teens supports active learning by breaking concepts down. Rather than giving teens the answer, study mode helps teens work through problems and interactive quizzes test their knowledge and provide immediate feedback. Safety protections are on by default, and parental controls offer families additional options like setting study hours and quiet hours. Visit chatgpt.comPARENTS to learn more.

• 1:09:36Speaker 07

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval. What would you like today? Can I get a number two? Anything else?

• 1:10:10Speaker 02

  Same shift, different day. I need a smoke. What can I get you? Can I get a number four, number seven, number eight? Same shift, I need a smoke.

• 1:10:20Speaker 01

  Different day. Using nicotine to relieve stress might just make you feel worse. Break the cycle and quit nicotine with free daily texts, expert tips, and community support from X Program by Truth Initiative. Visit Xprogram.com to start your quit journey today.