Dan Zuller, Partner at Vision Hill Advisors: How Fund of Funds Examine Crypto and Digital Assets

Dan Zuller is a partner at Vision Hill Advisors. In this conversation, Dan and Anthony Pompliano discuss fund of funds in crypto, what investing strategies are enticing right now, how due diligence of asset managers works, and what institutions are thinking about their crypto allocations today. ---- Totle is a rare blockchain investment opportunity, one that offers a live product, active customers, an established revenue model. Totle solves three significant problems with blockchain asset exchange: 1) Security 2) Complexity and 3) Pricing. Over $4 trillion of blockchain assets were exchanged in 2018 and growth is forecast for at least the next 10 years. Totle’s sophisticated platform powers the blockchain economy with safe, simple decentralized asset exchanges at the best price for traders, wallets, businesses and other financial apps. Totle’s B2C Web App and B2B API are live and serving customers today. Visit totle.com/pomp for more info. ----- BlockFi allows you to keep your crypto, put it up as collateral, and receive a USD loan funded directly to your bank account. They do loans ranging from $2,000 to $10,000,000, and they're perfect for helping you reach your financial goals of all sizes. Visit BlockFi.com/Pomp to learn more about putting your crypto to work without having to sell it. ----- If you enjoyed this conversation, share it with your colleagues & friends, rate, review, and subscribe. This podcast is presented by BlockWorks Group. For exclusive content and events that provide insights into the crypto and blockchain space, visit them at: https://www.blockworksgroup.io

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to Off the Chain, simply the best podcast in crypto. Let's kick this thing off.

• 0:12Anthony Pompliano?

  Dan Zuller is a partner at Vision Hill. In this conversation, we talked about fund to funds in crypto, what investing strategies are enticing right now, how due diligence of asset managers works, and what institutions are thinking about their crypto allocations today. I really enjoyed this conversation. Dan's super smart, and I hope you enjoy it as well. I'm sure a lot of you have used Kayak to find the best flight. Total's kind of like Kayak, but it don't find you no flights. It helps you find liquidity on decentralized exchanges and it optimally routes your trades for execution. So Kayak, you find flights. Total, they help you find liquidity. We should get Kayak on for this spot that I'm providing them,

• 0:56Anthony Pompliano?

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• 1:40Anthony Pompliano?

  I highly suggest you go check out blockfi.com/pomp. Again, that's blockfi.com/pomp to sign up and start earning crypto today. Anthony Pompliano is a partner at Morgan Creek Digital. All opinions expressed by Pomp or his guests on this podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Morgan Creek Digital or Morgan Creek Capital Management. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. All right, guys. I got a special treat for you today. We've got Dan here who sits in a very unique aspect of the crypto ecosystem. Thank you so much for coming, sir.

• 2:26Speaker 01

  Thank you, Pom, for having me. Excited to be here.

• 2:28Anthony Pompliano?

  Absolutely. Let's do a little bit on your background and how you eventually discovered crypto, and then we can get into what you're doing with Vision Hill.

• 2:36Speaker 01

  Sure. So I started my career in valuation and transaction advisory. I was at Duff and Phelps for a few years, focused on structured product valuation. So these are your credit derivatives, asset-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, and other forms of capital structure solutions. So very deeply analytical. And I navigated over to the buy-side where I joined Citigroup a few years ago to manage pension assets on behalf of their pension fund. So there, my focus was really the private equity, the venture capital, and the energy hedge fund markets, mostly managed due diligence and other buy-side opportunities where I was essentially trying to manage a portfolio to capitalize on the opportunities across those different marketplaces. So my crypto story really

• 3:20Speaker 01

  began in late 2016, early 2017. I had two college roommates that were computer science majors, but back in college, I totally ignored what they were focused on. I imagine most people did. And then in 2016, 2017, I started to take another look at the asset class because I just saw so much buzz around it, and I didn't know what words like Bitcoin and Ethereum meant. And I just started to do a deep dive because I was starting to realize that technology was the future. And I don't have, at the time, I didn't have that technology background. So I really wanted to gravitate my career to learning and getting more involved with technology. So that's really how my crypto journey began.

• 4:01Anthony Pompliano?

  That's awesome. And so you're at Citi, you're doing a ton of diligence on managers, right? And so it's kind of a natural extension to what you do with Vision Hill as a fund of funds. But maybe talk a little bit about just describing what a fund of fund is, how they normally work in traditional markets, and why you chose to go do fund of funds outside of Citi when you left.

• 4:23Speaker 01

  Absolutely. So a fund of fund... Is exactly what it sounds like. It is a hedge fund that is comprised of individual investments in other hedge funds. And the reason why we do this, and we could talk about this later, is uh, you know, we want to capitalize on many different strategies in this asset class. So in the traditional world, you know, with the equity markets, you have a lot of long only equity managers, have long short equity managers and all sorts of derivative strategy managers. So in this crypto asset class where, you know, you're starting to see developments every single day and maturation in many cycles. You know, front of funds made sense to capitalize on all the different strategies offered. So Vision Hill essentially was founded by my partner Scott Army, who comes from a high yield credit trading background at J P Morgan.

• 5:07Speaker 01

  And he was in conversations with a lot of his peers to open up a direct fund strategy. And I met Scott through a mutual fund of mine, who essentially introduced us because he thought our skill sets were very complementary. And the idea of a front of funds was started because both of us realized that the opportunity in front of us is absolutely massive. And we wanted to capitalize on all those different strategies. So Vision Hill is very much a multi-strat digital asset investment firm that invests in other hedge funds to capitalize on different time horizons and the risk profiles associated with those time horizons and also different strategies.

• 5:47Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And so as you start building Vision Hill, you two come together and was there a thought process of there's three or four strategies that we're really excited about to begin with? Or was it, we want to look at the entire landscape? What is every single fund manager doing? And then we're going to go pick the strategies that we think are interesting.

• 6:04Speaker 01

  Great question. So it was more the latter. You know, we, we did a very deep dive fund landscape review. And we do this about two times a year, so a semi-annual review. So in the summer of 2018, right after the second quarter ended, we basically did a deep screening across the entire landscape, trying to figure out who the investable funds were and what strategies they were executing. So at the time, we had screened a little over 300 funds and we identified five main strategies. That we curated into our benchmarking work that we published, it's free and publicly available for all. And those five strategies are fundamental, opportunistic, quantitative, venture and smart beta.

• 6:48Speaker 01

  And we can get into more detail there if you wish, but more or less, starting in the summer of 2018, we realized that these are sort of like the five core strategies associated with this asset class. And each of those strategies can break down into different sub-strategies that we can get into. But that's really how this aggregation of our data came to be and how vision hell was starting to be built. So just to give you some context on our research, and when we did our second deep dive fund landscape review as of the end of fourth quarter, we found, we were tracking around 425 funds. Well, almost at the end of first quarter 2019, that number is now exceeding 500. But back to fourth quarter, the fund, the crypto native fund landscape aggregate assets under management,

• 7:31Speaker 01

  we estimated to be about 4.5 billion. And the top 20 funds was comprised approximately a little over 50% of that landscape asset under management.

• 7:43Anthony Pompliano?

  So just to recap there, in the end of Q4 2018, there's about 420, 425 funds that it were existence. But out of the 4.8 billion or so that is in those funds, the top 20 manage over 50% of it.

• 8:00Speaker 01

  Correct, our 4.5 billion is what we estimate.

• 8:02Anthony Pompliano?

  4.5, okay.

• 8:03Speaker 01

  And to put that in context, as of the end of the second quarter, we estimated the fund landscape, the crypto native hedge fund and venture fund landscape AUM to be about 6 billion. So.

• 8:14Anthony Pompliano?

  So actually between Q2 in 2018 and Q4, there was almost a 30% drawdown in assets managed by these funds.

• 8:22Speaker 01

  That's what we estimate. Now, capital raising has been tough across the board and.

• 8:27Anthony Pompliano?

  How much of that is because the asset value drew down versus like redemptions? Do you know?

• 8:33Speaker 01

  So we don't have that data.

• 8:35Anthony Pompliano?

  Hard to get.

• 8:36Speaker 01

  It is something that we very much hope to include in our future analyses. But as of the, as of the end of the second quarter, the top 20 funds comprised. About forty percent of landscape AUM and as of the end of the fourth quarter, that was just over fifty percent. So we're starting to see wealth concentration shift upward towards top quality funds.

• 8:54Anthony Pompliano?

  It, yeah, it's the concentration in quality, right? Where basically you see this in the liquid assets themselves, right? So when there's a bull market, kind of the, the amount of Bitcoin dominance goes down because everyone kind of goes into all these altcoins. And then when the bear market hits, that dominance goes back up because there's that flight to quality. And what you're saying is basically in the fund landscape, you're seeing the same thing, right? Those top twenty funds are really dominating in terms of AUM, especially during a bear market.

• 9:22Speaker 01

  That's correct. And going back to a question about fund redemptions, the, the average lockup period for most hedge funds that we have seen has varied between one year and three years. Three years is on the longer end. So any, any redemptions that happened, no, you're still locked up for a prolonged period of time. So for redemptions to have, to happen in the fourth quarter of 2018, you would have had to be in this asset class in 2017. And then even still, a lot of funds structure their redemption cycles so that's staggered. So you can only withdraw up to a certain amount and then you can go into, no, whether it's quarterly or semiannually, it can be deferred to withdrawn until that staggered redemption schedule hits.

• 10:04Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And so let's talk a little bit about the, the manager specialization, right? So you kind of named those five core strategies that you guys identified, but maybe talk a little bit about, you know, or let's just first, why don't you describe those five and give a little bit of more detail on what do you mean by each of the five categories?

• 10:22Speaker 01

  Sure. So we also described those five in our quarterly benchmarking pieces. So for anyone listening, if you want to read more comprehensively, it is publicly available. Fundamental, I think, is pretty straightforward. You know, you have on one side, long only managers that really do a deep value research and these guys go granular to the protocol level to study the engineering trade-offs in the consensus algorithms. So certain examples of that would be, you know, how do you, how do you reach distributed consensus? And what is the most secure or? Optimized way to do that without jeopardizing other factors such as performance or decentralization. So whether it's liveliness, it's safety managers, and liveliness refers to our finality.

• 11:06Speaker 01

  So finality is in the sense of like how do nodes communicate with each other to ensure that a state is reached so that consensus can be achieved and then move on to the next transaction, which will be a new state. So it's essentially a state transition function. So on safety refers to protecting against double spends. So when you think about those trade offs and you know Byzantine full tolerance, which is essentially protecting against bad actors. These managers are really studying at the layer one level all the trade offs that the engineers have made and then trying to figure out which one is poised for the largest upside potential and value capture therein. On the other side, you have long short managers and tactical trading managers.

• 11:48Speaker 01

  These guys are essentially trading around the beta spread that's offered by exchanges and other over the counter market participants. So that's obviously a traditional market strategy that is carried over into asset class. And then you have hybrid managers that are really doing a combination of those two and also long tail venture illiquid risk. And those happen in side pockets where which are simply just carved out allocations for illiquid investments that are separated from the main fund but are funded nonetheless by the existing limited partners. So that's sort of like how fundamental breaks down. If we turn to quantitative, you know, this is also continuing to be an interesting developing sub asset strategy.

• 12:32Speaker 01

  But you have your market neutral managers. So these guys could essentially be doing basis trading or could be doing exchange arbitrage. You also have your directional managers that could either know be running some kind of risk model and a variety of factors there and so it could be, you know, factors like momentum, like, you know, sentiment. And they trade based on those factors to determine the direction that an asset might be trading on to capitalize on any upside opportunities there. And then you have a developing strategy that we refer to as long volatility. And these guys are simply just trading the Greeks.

• 13:13Speaker 01

  So these are not just your delta and your gamma, but also your theta, your Vega, and other forms of option derivative strategies. So that continues to develop, but I think this asset class is still a bit young because there's not that much data to work with. No, the fund landscape didn't really take off until 2017, when we saw no significant, significant volume come to this asset class. The other strategies, smart beta is more or less active and passive indexing. Venture is akin to traditional equity. You have your seed rounds, you have your early stages and the late stages. And then the last strategy is opportunistic.

• 13:55Speaker 01

  Opportunistic, we separate into two underlying sub-strategies. One of them is credit. So credit also carries over from the traditional asset class. It's just taking the existing legacy business model of lending, and you just have a new form of crypto collateral. And then the last one is what we refer to as generalized mining. And generalized mining is really just active network participation. So if you think about blockchain, it's really just are ways of coordinating human behavior so that you are either contributing a decentralized digital go-to-service to a network and then either being remunerated for that contribution or paying for that specific contribution on a given network.

• 14:38Speaker 01

  So by essentially providing some kind of supply-side service or being awarded coins by a native network as a good faith of being a good actor. So a really interesting way to look at this is sort of like the taxi medallion model. It's the right to work in a given system. And the taxi medallion could go up in value if there's demand for it, but it could also stay flat. It doesn't necessarily mean that you can't generate positive returns because taxi drivers collect their compensation in US dollars.

• 15:08Anthony Pompliano?

  For sure. How do you think about the difference between public and private investing? Kind of in the traditional markets, it's very well articulated, very well understood. In this market, it's a little bit different in that you've got public and market investing, which is what most people think of crypto. And then the private market is really these credit or venture opportunities. How do you think about that from a fund-to-fund perspective?

• 15:31Speaker 01

  That's a great question. So exactly like I said. Public crypto is really the crypto that most of the world sees. So these are your liquid listed crypto assets like Bitcoin, like Ether, like Litecoin, and so on and so forth. And then on the private side, you have a lot of VC and hedge fund backed startups that have created special projects that are not publicly traded. And we've seen that continue to develop. So I think in the, at the end of the second quarter, we estimated the private market valuation to be anywhere between 10 and 15 billion. And as of the end of the fourth quarter, when we did our second deep dive landscape review, we entered, we estimated that to be about 15 to 20 billion.

• 16:10Speaker 01

  And a lot of that is really because if you look at 2017, you saw the potential for illegal securities offerings in the ICO boom. So that shifted a lot of capital formation back to the private markets because a lot of entrepreneurs that we want to build and also be regulatory compliant. So we want to raise capital to fund our startups, but also we don't want to break under loss. So the way we think about it is, you know, it goes back to side pockets and getting access to liquid opportunities while also appropriately managing the assets and liabilities inherent with fund structures, particularly as it relates to terms. But the private market valuation has, in our view, shifted upward because of the demand,

• 16:55Speaker 01

  because capital formation is starting to continue to flow back to, you know, those private opportunities. But that doesn't necessarily mean that the private market is going to trade for that 15, 20 billion dollar estimate I just gave, because that is really based on post-money valuation, which is a paper valuation and doesn't necessarily represent fair value. It's entirely possible that the private market could still trade a significant discount to those post-money valuations because, you know, we're already starting to see that in secondary markets. Now, I think Coinbase was trading at about 60 cents on the dollar. We saw Circle trade at one point in time for about 25 cents on the dollar. And you see simplified agreements for future tokens, SaaS trade at discounts as well for other projects.

• 17:38Speaker 01

  So, you know, there's a lot of opportunity there and we're starting to see also a lot of those private projects come onto mainnet. So Cosmos just launched last night into mainnet, which was a private project that's now live in public. So we're going to see a lot more of those launches at the end of this year.

• 17:56Anthony Pompliano?

  It's so interesting to watch the nuances of crypto from an investor seat, right? Because there are some things that are very different. And the network launch is kind of similar like an IPO, right? Like to some degree. And you've got the ICOs, which is another form of an IPO, right? And so you kind of have various applications of financing mechanisms or kind of, you know, networks going live, etc. It's pretty cool to watch.

• 18:25Speaker 01

  Definitely.

• 18:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Give us some insight into the institutional interest, right? So you guys, basically, your job is to go raise capital from institutions, family offices, high net worths. And then you go and you deploy it into all of these different funds. What are you seeing on the institutional front?

• 18:41Speaker 01

  So I think sentiment is turning. I think the announcement of JPM Coin and what Cambridge Associates released, I think are two positive catalysts to get people that sort of were not excited about the asset class in 2018, given the public price drawdown, because that's really how they look at the entire asset class. I think those announcements got them back to the table to say, no, wait a minute. Maybe we should take another look at this. And then also, no, the whole question about whether we have actually bottomed is continues to float. But I think the fact that sentiment is turning, people are interested in trying to look beyond just the price of Bitcoin, look beyond, you know, just a public market valuation

• 19:23Speaker 01

  and look at the private side as well, I think is a tremendous positive. Not to mention that February was the first monthly positive return since July 2018, and before that was April 2018. So the fact that we have seen upside volatility again and we see sentiment is sort of starting to pick up. Sentiment is very hard to control, right? So I think institutional interest is growing again. Whether or not we have bottomed, you know, I wish I had a crystal ball. I wish I could tell you. I think, though, that there are certain factors that we can get into that speak to the possibility that we have bottomed that weren't. Around a few months ago, one of those factors is if you look at the futures markets,

• 20:05Speaker 01

  the backwardation curve has flattened. So the fact that futures prices are now more or less stable relative to spot price, I think is an entirely bullish signal. And that wasn't the case just a few months back. And then also in the make or die ecosystem, this is a more granular example, but the fact that die is trading below a dollar suggests that a lot of users are leveraging long the price of ETH because they don't want to sell it. And we can get into mechanics of that peg if you want, but I think that's also incredibly, incredibly bullish signal because people don't want to sell because they believe that the drawdown has essentially, you know, it's, it's, it's over. Otherwise, they, they wouldn't

• 20:49Speaker 01

  be leveraging long. So I think, you know, there's a variety of quantitative and qualitative factors that could speak to the possibility we have bottom. Again, I don't know, but that narrative was not the same just a few months back. And I think institutions are starting to consider that.

• 21:04Anthony Pompliano?

  Absolutely. I, I tend to agree that the sentiment is definitely changing and institutions are surprisingly very in line with retail sentiment, right?

• 21:14Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 21:14Anthony Pompliano?

  And what you've got to remember is, I don't care if you're a CIO at an endowment or you're an analyst, you know, at a public pension, you're still a human and you're still, you know, feeding off of the same information, whether it's, you know, Reddit, Facebook, or I'm sorry, Twitter, Telegram, et cetera. That, that sentiment change is kind of happening across the landscape, which is important.

• 21:33Speaker 01

  Definitely. And sentiment seems to be, no, if you think about, if you think about it like a boulder, it's very hard to control. It's very hard to control the direction. It's very hard to move. But when it is moving in the right direction, it can work like a tailwind. And I think that's a positive catalyst for everybody.

• 21:49Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, for sure. You spend a lot of your days doing due diligence. Let's, let's talk about that a little bit. So maybe first of all, just explain how you think about your role in the due diligence process. Like, why do you guys spend so much time doing it? And then we can get into what you actually do during the diligence process.

• 22:04Speaker 01

  Sure, so we think of our roles as two things. One, we want to be educational translators for institutions to come into the SaaS class because the SaaS class is very opaque, it's very complex. There's a lot of front end and back end complexities that may not necessarily be picked up by someone that's looking at the SaaS class for the first time. So from a strict risk management perspective, we want to be able to offer sophistication of diligence, both for ourselves and our investors, but also for all the funds that we are diligence in so that they are employing what we believe are best practices for their investors. So it's really an alignment of incentives there to just be as professional as we possibly can to help this asset class mature.

• 22:47Speaker 01

  So the way we think about diligence is really akin to those five strategies that I just worked it through. And we want to have exposure to all five of those strategies, whether directly or indirectly. And diligence happens when we roadmap a fund that looks institutionally investable and is transparent with their data, whether it's performance, whether it's how they think about their strategy, whether it's just market sentiment and their own narratives. But we want to diligence them from a framework that we have a vision hall that basically starts off by going deep into strategy and philosophy and then going granular into how

• 23:32Speaker 01

  do they think. So it's quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative, kind of like a side note, one of our advisors likes to say it takes three years to get a three-year track record. So it takes time to build those track records. And nonetheless, while we do that benchmarking work that's publicly available every quarter, the snapshots of performance at a point in time, and they shouldn't be indicative of longer-term performance of any given managers. So as it stands today, quantitative analysis for our due diligence is still relatively limited. And on the private side, when you have private networks that come public, you don't have that many case studies of the value creation.

• 24:12Speaker 01

  If I entered into a private deal with a one-time multiple capital and I was able to generate whatever the exit multiple is, hopefully it's higher than one times, what's that attribution? What's that value creation attribution in between point A and point B when point B is public? So given that there's not that much quantitative data to work with yet. A lot of it is very qualitative and qualitative refers to how do people think? And I usually refer to this as kind of like the the talent stack. And I think there's three ways to really analyze the SaaS class. There's, you know, from a financial perspective, how do you analyze token economics? Which is a lot of it carries over from traditional finance one on one.

• 24:54Speaker 01

  And that can help you understand how a network can behave economically. But then there's kind of two other layers, I think. One is whatever I refer to as technical from the outside. And then the second one I refer to as technical from the inside. Technical from the outside, I think, is looking at certain metrics that are available on things like GitHub to try to understand developer activity. So, for example, Electric Capital just posted this fantastic state of developers report.

• 25:21Anthony Pompliano?

  It was amazing.

• 25:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, it was really, really robust.

• 25:24Anthony Pompliano?

  It was so good.

• 25:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, that was that was really very impressive. And that really just painted a picture of the health of the development of all these networks, what the developers are working on, how many, what the trend of that developer growth is. And on GitHub, no certain metrics like no commits and stars and watches are great. But no, you still have to be careful that a lot of those can be gamed or manipulated. So that is all important from a technical analysis perspective. I prefer to that as technical from the outside. And then technical from the inside is really, like I was saying before, understanding grandly the engineering trade offs that are made by the builders of these protocols and these projects, you know, from a security perspective, from a performance perspective.

• 26:05Speaker 01

  You know, if there are a lot of disparate applications that warrant different programming languages, that warrant different trade offs and distributed consensus. You know, all of course, we once said, you know, if you have an air traffic control system, if you have an accounting legend, if you have a social media platform, all three of those use cases aren't going to demand the same programming language and the same security and performance trade offs. So I think that is all what I refer to as technical from the inside, because you have to really understand the decisions engineers are making and also the trade offs that come from those decisions. vulnerabilities are opened up, what potential attack factors are opened up because of some

• 26:47Speaker 01

  trade-off decision that you elected to make, not to mention governance, coordinating human behavior in the division of labor is all extremely important because you need to think about what is sustainable in the long run and how humans are incentivized. So that is all what I've heard is technical from the inside. So to wrap that up, that's really how we go deep with the manager on the qualitative aspects. And then last but not least, and due diligence is operational due diligence. So this is not just your custody and your security and your asset verification. This is also what's evaluation policy. How do you mark your liquid positions based on what you determine?

• 27:26Anthony Pompliano?

  So I want to get into a couple of things. So basically you just described this as a qualitative and quantitative analysis of, you know, what's your philosophy, what's your strategy? How do you actually, what are you going to do with the money that, right? If we give it to you and how will you think about deploying it? And what type of return can we expect, right? Or would we anticipate?

• 27:44Speaker 01

  Correct.

• 27:44Anthony Pompliano?

  Then, and I think a lot of managers focus on that, right? That is what their business is, is I'm going to take money from my investors. I'm going to go and invest it and that's the fun part of the job.

• 27:54Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 27:55Anthony Pompliano?

  The second part is this operational due diligence. Usually most managers actually don't like the operational side of it because it's not investing, right? It's the necessary evil to the business. And in this, there's all kinds of nuances, right? And in my experience, the larger the asset manager and the longer they've been around, they just have muscle memory, right? They're able to say, this is how we've done this. We've gone through a lot of due diligence processes. We've learned, we've kind of, you know, we're a well-oiled machine. In crypto, most of these funds are very young, right? Year or less old. And so they don't have that muscle memory. They don't have, you know, the 50-person staff. They're trying to build up for that, but it's going to take a couple of years. And it's going to take, they're going to have to some profits to invest to build that type of infrastructure.

• 28:41Anthony Pompliano?

  Let's go through a couple of the operational due diligence things, right? And so one thing that you mentioned that I don't think a lot of people understand the nuances of is like valuation methodology, right? So in the public markets, pretty simple. We're going to pick a date and time and this is how we're always going to measure it. And what is the, you know, what do we own and what's the price on the exchange? Simple. Private market is very different. So maybe talk about, you know, what the challenges are on the private market and then how you guys think about and talk with managers about that valuation methodology of the private markets.

• 29:11Speaker 01

  So that's a great question. I agree with everything you were just saying. So on the private side, you know, a lot of managers choose to hold their positions at cost, which could very well be the right way to go about it. What we advocate for is fair market value. And it's very possible that cost and fair market value could be the same number, but it's how you arrive there that can make auditors most comfortable that you are employing best practice. So what we have seen some managers do is create a framework. You know, it's essentially a list of parameters. And now if you think about it as a list, now step one is going to be,

• 29:51Speaker 01

  if this asset is very thinly traded on a exchange, whether it's centralized or decentralized, now can we exit in a timely fashion? How would that be defined? If we can't because there's not sufficient volume, then step one cannot be completed. Let's move on to step two. Step two could be something else. Now, can we derive a, you know, internal fair market value estimate based on some valuation methodology that we could also get into if we wish? There's some challenges around that, but if we can, then maybe that's fair market value. If we can't, then let's move on to step three. And it's possible that if all the above steps can't be met, then step three could be cost.

• 30:33Speaker 01

  Based on that defined methodology, you're arriving at cost, but cost could be equal to fair value. So that is something that we have seen some managers start to adapt and as well as we always recommend managers work with the auditors.

• 30:48Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, and the part that's interesting, I've even seen managers who say, I'm going to market at the last valuation that was validated by a third-party investment with a discount. So I'm going to take 20% off whatever that is, right? And just they're being overly prudent in a way or conservative, which I think is a really interesting way of approaching it as well. What are some of the other things that you see are really big points for you in the operation of due diligence?

• 31:14Speaker 01

  So what we see as really big points are business risk mitigation. So that really means is has your management company been separately capitalized to have sufficient money to cover the cost of operations if you didn't get another dollar in the door for profit or management fees? So in other words, are you separately and properly funded on your balance sheet to be able to cover the cost of operations? And then a second point on that is what assets under management do you have to have so that the management fees generated from that assets under management can cover the cost of operations alone? That's basically a break-even point. So what really makes us comfortable is trying to see what managers have thought about this,

• 31:59Speaker 01

  what managers have checked those boxes. Now, because otherwise the business risk is too high. If you only have three months to fund your operation and not another dollar in the door, you're either going to have to raise more capital for your management company or you're going to have to shut down. So that's one key thing.

• 32:15Anthony Pompliano?

  What percentage of funds do you think are making money right now? Like they actually are past break-even and profitable?

• 32:21Speaker 01

  So when you say make money, do you mean profit or do you mean that are? Having the management fees cover the cost of the operation.

• 32:30Anthony Pompliano?

  Let's go with management fees cover the cost of operations.

• 32:33Speaker 01

  So I think there's a healthy chunk. I think there's absolutely healthy chunk. Now, the top 20 funds that we just mentioned, more or less, I think all of those are sufficiently covering the cost of the operation. And now managers that are, now let's call it 5 million in assets under management or less, are still running incredibly lean operations. So the overhead costs are not that high, even though the AUM is very small. So I don't see that as a viable concern for the majority of funds in the SaaS class.

• 33:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it.

• 33:01Speaker 01

  But it's nonetheless a very important factor about due diligence.

• 33:04Anthony Pompliano?

  Yep. Okay. What else?

• 33:05Speaker 01

  So we talked about valuation policy. I think key person risk is also incredibly important because investment teams, given it's still extremely early days, investment teams are very small. And if you remove one person for whatever reason from the equation, now what does that do to the investment strategy and the ability of the fund to execute that investment strategy? So how key person risk is handled, you know, is there a succession plan? Now, who is the most valuable team member? And what happens if they are essentially no longer part of the team? I think it's really important to think through, and I would say that's another example.

• 33:44Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And how do you see the best teams handling the key man risk?

• 33:49Speaker 01

  So I see a lot of succession plans and also it really depends on the chemistry between the investment team. Now, how do you guys come to consensus at your investment committee? Now, does everyone have an equal vote? Now, is it defined based on certain parameters? And if for whatever reason, somebody were to depart from the investment team, you know, we see enough talent in the other investment team members to continue to carry the fund forward. We don't really see any one investment team member being so important to the operation of the business that if they are gone, then it's very unlikely that the investment operation was shut down.

• 34:30Speaker 01

  We don't see that often, but we have seen it in certain cases, and that is nonetheless a risk to be.

• 34:36Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. Let's switch gears and talk about crypto and like kind of 2019 into 2020. What's your outlook in terms of sitting in that fund to fund seat, both from inflows? So institutional investors coming in and then also from a strategy standpoint, which strategies are you kind of most excited about over the next year or so?

• 35:02Speaker 01

  Sure. So I think from a inflows standpoint, the institutional interest that we just spoke about a few minutes ago, I think is changing. Now, I think it's skeptical, but from a healthy perspective. And that is very tough to control. No, it's not like it's like a light switch. So I think that is a very positive catalyst for 2019, 2020. Of course, the global macro fears based on the state of the global economy. But nonetheless, if you look at crypto in isolation of that, now the fact that they're coming back to the table and reconsidering portfolio construction and deploying funds into the SaaS class, I think is extremely positive. And I don't think many of us saw that in 2018.

• 35:47Speaker 01

  So that's from an influence perspective. From an outflow perspective, right now, we're excited about a lot of things. No, we're trying to gain exposure to those five strategies I mentioned before. And then personally, I'm very, very interested in DeFi or open finance, as some people call it, because I see that as, you know, a very interesting use case to enable permissionless value transfer and all kinds of financial tools for anyone, anywhere in the world at any point in time.

• 36:19Anthony Pompliano?

  So I want to go deep with you on this because one framework that I've been using is institutional investors are still trying to underwrite fund managers. They're trying to meet due diligence and underwrite humans. DeFi, a lot of it is actually the humans are taken out of the equation, right? There's kind of algorithms and more automated processes, right? If you look at like a CDP or anything like that with Maker.

• 36:46Anthony Pompliano?

  How do you think that, well, first of all, how do you guys think about the DeFi versus like, let's call it human-driven fund managers? And then how do you think that the institutional investors, is there a world where they eventually just start actually getting direct exposure to DeFi-type instruments? Or do you think they'll still go through managers who then get the exposure for them?

• 37:03Speaker 01

  So I think they'll still go through managers to get that exposure, at least in the short term, because the the counterparty risk and the custodial risk of how do you actually custody these assets? And how do you trust the technology as opposed to a human, I think, is far too great right now. So I think a lot of institutions would still go through managers before they start to do it directly. That very well could change in a few years, but right now I think the risk is too high. I actually respectfully disagree with the point about DeFi being mostly machine-driven

• 37:34Anthony Pompliano?

  Okay, awesome. You don't even have to do it respectfully. You can disagree vehemently.

• 37:38Speaker 01

  I appreciate that. But the reason why is because I have this hypothesis that the idea of programmable value networks generating monetary premiums is very much a function of social capital, and social capital is really just human connection. You know, you could have smart contracts execute all sorts of code to create financial instruments and derivative instruments and so on and so forth. But how do you trust that where you're actually executing the smart contract on is secure? And that, I think, is indirectly a function of the people that are working on maintaining the technology and also building the technology. So when I was going back to the idea of a monetary premium, you know, a lot of people that look at the

• 38:21Speaker 01

  Ethereum blockchain think that ETH is accruing a monetary premium because they see it be used as a store of value in some things like Noland Dharma or collateralized depositions maker. But, you know, if we take a step back and you think about the human aspect here. There are some programmable public chains out there that can compete with ETH as Ethereum as, you know, if you want to call it the winning public blockchain. I don't want to say that really because I think there's going to be many different blockchains in the future. But if you look at EOS, if you look at Tezos, if you look at Zalquar, you know, there's a lot of similarities in the smart contract computing aspect. But ETH, as Electric Capital

• 39:02Speaker 01

  has stated, developers report has published Ethereum has accrued the largest number of core developers and total developers. And that trend has been growing at a very steady pace throughout the last 12 months. So the fact that those people want to build on Ethereum and the fact that they don't really have many choices yet, because a lot of the private programmable value networks, you know, I'm talking like EMEA, your Dfinity, your Oasis, and so on, a lot of those teams are still very much operating in closed environments. So that talent is pretty much not necessarily able to go anywhere because they're very confined to their funding that is backed by venture funds or hedge funds. And the Ethereum

• 39:47Speaker 01

  community is building on a protocol that they have a community around. Now, and just to give you some flavor of the strength of that community, DevCon, which was, you know, late last year, I think 3,000 tickets were sold out in just mere seconds. So it's a very strong community and the developers that are building on that network, now, when I referred to social capital earlier, if you remove that social capital, that if those developers were to go to a different project that was private that went public, or EOS or Zalquar, Tezos, would people still have faith in the fact that ETH is accrued a monetary premium because it's being used in all these different DeFi applications? My argument

• 40:28Speaker 01

  would be no, because unless the talent can be replenished, unless you can actually match that talent with equal or higher caliber, now, it's hard to justify assigning the same value to that same digital asset. So that's kind of a long answer to a question of why I disagree. And I think human connectivity is still a huge part of all these DeFi functions. It's just not the same as having a trusted counterparty. And so wrapping that up, institutions would still rather go the fund manager app to have a trusted counterparty, but then...

• 41:01Speaker 01

  The DeFi applications could be very much automated, but it's still a function that the value ascribed to that is still a function of the humans that are working on it.

• 41:09Anthony Pompliano?

  For sure. Um, how does crypto do during an economic turn down?

• 41:14Speaker 01

  On the public side?

• 41:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, like so Bitcoin, Ethereum, kind of all of the public crypto, because I think that's probably the most volatile and most likely to be affected. All of a sudden, there's some sort of global, you know, economic crisis, or even just a drawback in in the US economy, etc. How do you think crypto does? Or what's the framework you use to think about it?

• 41:35Speaker 01

  Sure, that's a great question. I think on the public side at least, these are still risk on assets. So I think it's very possible that they would have high beta and similar to public technology stocks. Now, when when there's a drawdown or concerns around the global macro environment, a lot of technology investors think that the ability to collect a claim on cash flow is distance, you know, because of operational challenges, because revenue is slowing down, whatever the reason for the drawdown is. And as a result, they lose confidence in their ability to collect cash flow from a particular stock in a short period of time. And I think that very much carries over into public traded publicly

• 42:17Speaker 01

  traded digital assets, because it's that same sentiment. If I'm losing confidence because of public market drawdowns, even though there's no revenue, there's no no equity business model, network networks and companies are very different. Nonetheless, I think that same investor profile is in the equation. And if I'm losing confidence, then I'm probably going to sell. So I think, no, I would expect digital assets on public side to trade down, just like public tech stocks. On the private side, no, I think there's a lag. I think there's a three or six month, possibly even more lag on private market valuations to the public market. And the reason why I say that is because public market valuations, in theory, should serve as reference points for what private markets should be able to

• 43:00Speaker 01

  achieve in the future. And public markets are drawn down, then it's only

• 43:06Speaker 01

  It's only presumed that private markets should be able to follow suit. It just might take some time to get there. And how private markets fare, no, I think the scarcity of funds in the private market could bring down those valuations. And if entrepreneurs are going to have to raise capital on those favorable terms, the cost of capital is going to increase. And as a result, that could put stress on their ability to grow their projects and the companies. So I think you're going to see stress in both the public and the private side, but the private side would probably lag the public.

• 43:40Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. Do you think that these institutional investors see Bitcoin as a non-correlated asset? Or do you think that we're still so far in the early stages of the education cycle, they're not even thinking about Bitcoin by itself? They're thinking of crypto as an entire asset class? Like, how far are we on the separation of the different assets? And then also, how do they look at it in those kind of global macro situations?

• 44:08Speaker 01

  Those are two great questions. I think I'm going to answer the second one first. I don't think that they separate the assets in this crypto industry because they very much look at the price of Bitcoin and think that's representative of the entire asset class. So unfortunately, I think it's early from an educational perspective. I think we're going to all collectively have to collaborate to get them to understand there's so much more beyond just the price of Bitcoin in this asset class. And then to answer your second question, I think that, I think the answer is yes and no. It's yes to the sense that they do look at it from an uncorrelated asset perspective because Bitcoin's history has largely been low correlated to traditional markets.

• 44:53Speaker 01

  But I also think that it's very early. Now, even though Bitcoin has been around for about 10 years now, it's still very early to have probable data because of the adoption curve. So 2017, I would say is when crypto fell onto most people's radar, and then we had the run up and then the run down. So very much could still continue to be a very low correlated asset. But I think as we get more years under our belt, that's when you'll be able to trust that it will remain a low correlated asset.

• 45:23Anthony Pompliano?

  Absolutely. Before I finish up, I always do rapid-fire questions. What do you think the most important company in crypto is?

• 45:29Speaker 01

  That's a great question.

• 45:36Speaker 01

  I think the most important company is,

• 45:42Speaker 01

  I would say, a company focused on education.

• 45:45Anthony Pompliano?

  Interesting.

• 45:46Speaker 01

  So I think I would say the answer to that question is really two companies that come to mind. It's Messiah, and I think it's The Block. And the reason why I mention those companies is because content curation and CoinDesk. So I'd say those three companies.

• 46:00Speaker 01

  It's really because content curation is so remarkably powerful for expanding this asset class from an educational perspective. And all three of those businesses are focused on different kinds of content. So it's really just trying to get people to read. And any podcasts are plus for anyone that loves podcasts such as myself over reading. But I think if you can continue to get information into the hands of non crypto natives and get that distribution out there, I think that is one of the most important things that we could ask for in this asset class, because otherwise we're not going to be able to spread the mission.

• 46:35Anthony Pompliano?

  Absolutely. If you could change any one regulation, what would it be? Change or improve?

• 46:41Speaker 01

  I would say I would, this is my personal opinion, of course, I would change the tax impact around treating crypto assets as property, because I think, you know, even if, I think it's two layers of complexity here. One, I don't want to spend a deflationary or a disinflationary asset in an otherwise inflationary environment. I'm much more incentivized to hold and collect the future rewards over time by doing some kind of active network participation. But even if I had a stablecoin, like we use the Mika DAO ecosystem, even if I was able to take that deflationary disinflationary asset, lock an interest mark contract, extract stablecoin and go out and spend that stablecoin, I'm still creating a taxable event.

• 47:24Speaker 01

  And I think that is a headache for many people. That is, you know, in a way.

• 47:32Anthony Pompliano?

  Doesn't make sense.

• 47:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's challenging adoption, I think. So if you could change that to enable people to be able to spend those stablecoins to facilitate points of sale and not much adoption, I think that would be a positive catalyst for the entire asset class. But unfortunately, don't control the tax law.

• 47:53Anthony Pompliano?

  What is the most important book you've ever read?

• 47:56Speaker 01

  Most important book I've ever read? How to Win Friends and Influence People by Derek Cronig.

• 47:59Anthony Pompliano?

  Really?

• 48:00Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 48:00Anthony Pompliano?

  What was your takeaway from it? Other than how to win friends and influence people?

• 48:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think two takeaways. One is listen more, because when somebody's speaking, getting information and now some parallels to that from where we set a vision of hell, but getting information is one of the most powerful tools out there. Now, if you're collecting information from someone else, now that, now, life shouldn't be looked at this way, but that that can now open up a lot of different ways conversations can go. And in certain circumstances, it can also help you create leverage for yourself. Now, so that could help with any kind of business negotiation, anything like that. So I think that was takeaway number one. Takeaway number two is, you know, at the end of the day, it's funny because

• 48:45Speaker 01

  crypto is looked at as financial incentives first and foremost. But I think a really important second part is the idea of human connection. Now, it sounds a lot cheesy, but no, the idea of looking for love, money can't buy love. People want to be connected to other people and have a sense of belonging, have a sense of purpose, have a sense of, you know, duty and mission. And I think people are always looking for that. So that book really helps you figure out how to connect with other humans that may come from different backgrounds, that may come from different, you know, geographies, and teaches you how to create a two-way street in conversation that can make you a much better person if you have information that

• 49:30Speaker 01

  you can apply to your own life.

• 49:32Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, I love that answer. I usually end with you asking me one question, but before we do, aliens real or not?

• 49:40Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 49:40Anthony Pompliano?

  Yes?

• 49:41Speaker 01

  Absolutely.

• 49:41Anthony Pompliano?

  Why?

• 49:42Speaker 01

  I think that the probability that we are the only species in this entire universe is incredibly low. I wouldn't necessarily say it's non-zero, but I think it's incredibly low. And I think it's only Normal to be open minded to the fact that there are other forms of life out there. Um, I don't necessarily envision aliens as your cartoon character with no big eyes and big head.

• 50:04Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah.

• 50:04Speaker 01

  And like that, uh, very well could be a possibility, but I, I think that there are other people out there and it's very possible that they have tried to communicate with us already and we're just not advanced enough as a society.

• 50:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Right.

• 50:17Speaker 01

  Um, but I, I very much do think there are aliens out there.

• 50:19Anthony Pompliano?

  Would you rather go to space or to the depths of the ocean?

• 50:22Speaker 01

  Depths of the ocean.

• 50:23Anthony Pompliano?

  Really? Wait, why?

• 50:25Speaker 01

  I am terrified of space.

• 50:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Oh man, I'm the opposite. I'm terrified of the depths of the ocean. Like, yeah, just like, I don't know, what's down there?

• 50:35Speaker 01

  Well, the way I look at it is if I'm scuba diving down there, no, um, if something goes wrong, my chances of getting to the shore are higher than if I'm in space and something goes wrong, getting back to earth.

• 50:47Anthony Pompliano?

  Okay, that's fair.

• 50:48Speaker 01

  That's how I look at it.

• 50:49Anthony Pompliano?

  You're looking at the downside risk protection.

• 50:51Speaker 01

  Downside protection, exactly.

• 50:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, exactly. Uh, all right. What, uh, what one question do you have for me?

• 50:56Speaker 01

  So one question I have for you is really, you know, obviously you built quite a brand for yourself and a following and, you know, all your podcasts, uh, which I'm very grateful to be here. You know, your Twitter following, you're on your newsletter. How do you balance your social life with what is a 24/7 asset class? And also trying to, you know, maintain the status that you have achieved?

• 51:19Speaker 01

  And I guess one follow up question is if you could look back, would you do anything differently?

• 51:26Anthony Pompliano?

  That's a good question. Um, I think one, uh, definitely don't have any status, right? I'm, I'm a big believer that, um,

• 51:35Anthony Pompliano?

  I look at it as I put my ideas out there and I wish that other people actually did that more often. Um, and I'm doing it from a selfish perspective because when I put those ideas out there, uh, I get lots of feedback very quickly on whether, okay, am I on track? Am I missing something? Did, did I actually take data that was, uh, accurate and applicable, but I applied it in the wrong way, right? Like you just get feedback and, and so it, um, it's really from a learning perspective. Uh, two is how do I? Balance it all. Um, one, I have an incredible girlfriend who is a super patient and she probably wishes I was on my phone a little bit less.

• 52:14Anthony Pompliano?

  But, but other than that, I'm pretty intentional. So I wake up early. I, I know that I kind of, um, I write the newsletter every morning before pretty much anyone else is awake. I'm able to do a bunch of calls and stuff, uh, you know, with other, uh, time zones. Um, and then I'm, I, I schedule my calendar in a way where I actually leave early. Right? So, so I don't stay in the office till seven, eight o'clock at night. Um, I, it, it's very important to me to kind of get out of the office. Go spend time with her, um, really do things other than work, uh, even if it's for just, you know, an hour or two every day. And then, uh, it's also the ability for me to seem like I'm always on.

• 52:57Anthony Pompliano?

  I engage with a lot of people and all the stuff, but there's times during the day where I'll go three, four, five hours and I won't be on Twitter. Right? But then when I come back on, I will go through and it'll take me 20, 30 minutes, but I'll respond to everybody. And so, yeah, there was a three or four hour lull where I didn't respond to them, but I responded. And so they feel like I'm, oh, he's always there. He's always responsive. And, and it's kind of the, uh, the perception is the reality to some degree. Um, and then would I do anything differently?

• 53:25Anthony Pompliano?

  I'm a big believer in doing what you want to do. Like there's a sense of freedom to that. There's probably some things where people have said something online and I've just, you know, I, I gave the example the other day, somebody like brought a little like water gun. And I came with like a flamethrower over the top, right? It was just like, that was just my reaction in the moment. And, uh, there's probably some of that stuff where, uh, you know, when you look at it six months later, you're like, that wasn't necessary or wasn't helpful. Um, but then there's an element of me that says, well, that's how I felt at the moment. And I said what I meant, right? And I don't apologize for it. So I think that there's a balance there that, uh, that sometimes there's probably, I probably shouldn't have said that.

• 54:05Anthony Pompliano?

  But also at the same time, would I do things differently? I think I would probably, uh, I, I wish that earlier in my life I would have learned, uh, the secret of.

• 54:16Anthony Pompliano?

  I don't care what people think and I'm actually willing to uh lose quote unquote friends or acquaintances who don't want to be in my life for the right reasons. So um that is a really unique way of looking at the world where I think a lot of people are like, oh, I don't want to like, you know, lose that friend. I don't want to lose connection with that person. I'm much more of the mindset of like, I'm gonna do the things that I want to do and the people who want to be in your life will be there. Um, the friends that you have are the friends who want to be there, right? That you find yourself talking to. Uh, so I'm less intentional about like, oh, I haven't talked to this person in three months. Like, I should go talk to them. Uh, and more of like, do I want to talk to that person? Right? And so that, uh, learning all of that, um, I, I still learned it pretty early in

• 55:01Anthony Pompliano?

  life, but you know, the earlier I would have learned it, I think the, the more I would have benefited from it.

• 55:05Speaker 01

  That's great. I'm really glad that you are finding ways to have fun outside of our what is incredibly busy environment.

• 55:11Anthony Pompliano?

  This is a, I, I am super transparent. The day that none of this is fun anymore, I'm done. Like, if I wake up one morning and I'm like, I don't want to write this newsletter, I, I promise you, I will stop writing it that day. I won't write it again. Right? If I walk in here to record one of these and I'm dreading it, I'll, I literally won't record that one. I won't record another one. Um, and so, uh, there's a lot of things in my life where I've done it that way. And it's just, let's all enjoy it while I, while we can, because I'm enjoying it. And then when I'm done, I'm done and I'll move on to something else.

• 55:42Speaker 01

  Great.

• 55:43Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. Thank you so much for coming, man. This is awesome. I'll have to do this again.

• 55:47Speaker 01

  Definitely.

• 55:48Anthony Pompliano?

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• 56:25Anthony Pompliano?

  Interest rate actually compounds, so you receive a 6.2% APY, which is very attractive given the alternatives. So you can actually take your Bitcoin, you can deposit it with BlockFi, and get paid an interest rate of 6% in return. Go check out blockfi.com/pomp. Again, blockfi.com/pomp to sign up and start earning interest on your crypto today. Hey everyone, Pomp here. If you liked this episode of Off the Chain and want to help us take crypto to the top of the apple, Spotify and other podcast charts, please do us a favor and rate, review and subscribe. To review, simply go to the Off the Chain homepage, scroll down until you see the five blank stars. Taking 15 seconds to fill those stars in and leave a quick review goes a long way in helping

• 57:09Anthony Pompliano?

  us take the entire crypto ecosystem to the top of the charts. I appreciate you listening and see you next time on Off the Chain.