Kevin Scott: Microsoft CTO

Kevin Scott is the CTO of Microsoft. Before that, he was the Senior Vice President of Engineering and Operations at LinkedIn. And before that, he oversaw mobile ads engineering at Google. This conversation is part of the Artificial Intelligence podcast. If you would like to get more information about this podcast go to https://lexfridman.com/ai or connect with @lexfridman on Twitter https://twitter.com/lexfridman, LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman/, Facebook https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman, Medium https://medium.com/@lexfridman, or YouTube https://www.youtube.com/lexfridman where you can watch the video versions of these conversations. If you enjoy the podcast, please rate it 5 stars on iTunes or support it on Patreon https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Lex Fridman?

  The following is a conversation with Kevin Scott, the CTO of Microsoft. Before that, he was the Senior Vice President of Engineering and Operations at LinkedIn. And before that, he oversaw mobile ads engineering at Google. He also has a podcast called Behind the Tech with Kevin Scott, which I'm a fan of. This was a fun and wide-ranging conversation that covered many aspects of computing. It happened over a month ago, before the announcement of Microsoft's investment in OpenAI that a few people have asked me about. I'm sure there'll be one or two people in the future, they'll talk with me about the impact of that investment. This is the Artificial Intelligence Podcast.

• 0:45Lex Fridman?

  If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube, give it five stars on iTunes, support it on Patreon, or simply connect with me on Twitter at Lex Fridman, spelled F-R-I-D-M-A-N. And I'd like to give a special thank you to Tom and Alanthi Bickhausen for their support of the podcast on Patreon. Thanks, Tom and Alanthi. Hope I didn't mess up your last name too bad. Your support means a lot and inspires me to keep this series going. And now here's my conversation with Kevin Scott.

• 1:35Lex Fridman?

  You've described yourself as a kid in a candy store at Microsoft because of all the interesting projects that are going on. Can you try to do the impossible task and give a brief whirlwind view of all the spaces that Microsoft is working in? Both research and product?

• 1:54Speaker 01

  If you include research, it becomes even, even more difficult. So.

• 2:03Speaker 01

  So I think broadly speaking, Microsoft's product portfolio includes everything from, you know, big cloud business, like a big set of SaaS services. We have, you know, sort of the original or like some of what are among the original productivity software products that everybody uses. We have an operating system business. We have a hardware business where we make everything from computer mice and headphones to high-end, high-end personal computers and laptops. We have a fairly broad-ranging

• 2:43Speaker 01

  research group where like we have people doing everything from economics research. So like there's this really, really smart young economist, Glenn Weil, who like my group works with a lot, who's doing this research on these things called radical markets. Like he's written an entire, an entire technical book about, about this whole notion of radical markets. So like the research group sort of spans from that to human-computer interaction to artificial intelligence. And we have, we have GitHub, we have LinkedIn, we have a search advertising and news business and like probably a bunch of stuff that I'm embarrassingly not recounting in this.

• 3:28Lex Fridman?

  And gaming to Xbox and so on.

• 3:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, gaming for sure. Like I was, I was having a super fun conversation this morning with, with Phil Spencer. So when I was in college, there was this game that Lucas Arts made called Day of the Tentacle that my friends and I played forever. And like we're, you know, doing some interesting collaboration now with the folks who made Day of the Tentacle. And I was like completely nerding out with Tim Schafer, like the guy who wrote Day of the Tentacle this morning, just a complete fanboy, which, you know, sort of, it like happens a lot. Like, you know, Microsoft has been doing so much

• 4:09Speaker 01

  stuff at such breadth for such a long period of time that, you know, like being CTO. Like, most of the time, my job is very, very serious. And sometimes, like, I get to, I get caught up in like, how amazing it is to be able to have the conversations that I have with the people I get to have them with.

• 4:31Lex Fridman?

  Yeah, to reach back into the sentimental. And what's the radical markets and the economics?

• 4:38Speaker 01

  So, the idea with radical markets is like, can you come up with new market-based mechanisms to, you know, I think we have this, we're having this debate right now, like, does capitalism work, like, free markets work? Can the incentive structures that are built into these systems produce outcomes that are creating sort of equitably distributed benefits for every member of society?

• 5:12Speaker 01

  You know, and I think it's a reasonable, reasonable set of questions to be asking. And so what Glenn, and so like, you know, one mode of thought there, like, if you have doubts that the, that the markets are actually working, you can sort of like tip towards, like, okay, let's, let's become more socialist and, you know, like, have central planning and, you know, governments or some other central organization is like making a bunch of decisions about how, you know, sort of work gets done and, you know, like, where the, you know, where the investments and where the outputs of those investments get distributed. Glenn's notion is like, lean more into, like, the market-based mechanism. So like, for instance, you know, this is one of the more radical ideas, like, suppose

• 5:57Speaker 01

  that you had a radical pricing mechanism for assets like real estate where you were, you could be bid out of your position and...

• 6:12Speaker 01

  In your home, for instance, so like if somebody came along and said, you know, like I've, I can find higher economic utility for this piece of real estate that you're running your, your business in, like, then, like, you either have to, you know, sort of bid to sort of stay, or like the thing that's got the higher economic utility, you know, sort of takes over the asset, which would make it very difficult to have the same sort of rent-seeking behaviors that you've got right now, because, like, if you did speculative bidding, like,

• 6:53Speaker 01

  you would, you very quickly, like, lose a whole lot of money. And so, like, the prices of the assets would be sort of, like, very closely indexed to, like, the value that they could produce. And like, because, like, you'd have this sort of real-time mechanism that would force you to sort of mark the value of the asset to the market, then it could be taxed appropriately. Like, you couldn't sort of sit on this thing and say, oh, like, this house is only worth 10,000 bucks, when, like, everything around it is worth 10 million.

• 7:23Lex Fridman?

  That's really interesting. So it's an incentive structure that, where the prices match the value much better.

• 7:30Speaker 01

  Yeah. And Glenn does a much, much better job than I do at selling, and I probably picked the world's worst example, you know, and, and, and. But like, and it's, it's intentionally provocative, you know, so like, this whole notion, like, I, you know, like, I'm not sure whether I like this notion that, like, we could have a set of market mechanisms where I could get bid out of, out of my property, you know. But, but, you know, like, if you're thinking about something like Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax, for instance, like, you would have, I mean, it'd be really interesting in, like, how you would actually set the, the price on the assets. And like, you might have to have a mechanism like that if you put a tax like that in place.

• 8:11Lex Fridman?

  It's really interesting that that kind of research, at least tangentially, is touching Microsoft research.

• 8:16Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 8:17Lex Fridman?

  That you're really thinking broadly. Maybe you can speak to...

• 8:24Lex Fridman?

  This connects to AI. So we have a candidate Andrew Yang, who kind of talks about artificial intelligence and the concern that people have about, you know, automation's impact on society. And arguably, Microsoft is at the cutting edge of innovation in all these kinds of ways. And so it's pushing AI forward. How do you think about combining all our conversations together here with radical markets and socialism and innovation in AI that Microsoft is doing? And then Andrew Yang's worry that that will result in job loss for the lower and so on. How do you think about that?

• 9:04Speaker 01

  I think it's sort of one of the most important questions in technology, like maybe even in society right now, about how is AI going to develop over the course of the next several decades? And like, what's it going to be used for? And like, what benefits will it produce? And what negative impacts will it produce? And, you know, who gets to steer this whole thing? You know, I'll say at the highest level, one of the real joys of getting to do what I do at Microsoft is Microsoft has this heritage as a platform company.

• 9:44Speaker 01

  And so, you know, like Bill has this thing that he said a bunch of years ago, where, you know, the measure of a successful platform is that it produces far more economic value for the people who build on top of the platform than is created for the platform owner or builder. And I think we have to think about AI that way.

• 10:08Lex Fridman?

  As a platform?

• 10:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, it has to be a platform that other people can use to build businesses, to fulfill their creative objectives, to be entrepreneurs, to solve problems that they have in their work and in their lives. It can't be a thing where there are a handful of companies sitting in a very small handful of cities geographically. Who are making all the decisions about what goes into the AI and and like and then on top of like all this infrastructure, then build all of the commercially valuable uses for it.

• 10:48Speaker 01

  So like, I think like that's bad from a, you know, sort of, you know, economics and sort of equitable distribution of value perspective. Like, you know, sort of back to this whole notion of, you know, like, do the markets work? But I think it's also bad from an innovation perspective because like I have infinite amounts of faith in human beings that if you, you know, give folks powerful tools, they will go do interesting things. And it's more than just a few tens of thousands of people with the interesting tools. It should be millions of people with the tools. So it's sort of like, you know, you think about the the steam engine in the late 18th century.

• 11:29Speaker 01

  Like it was, you know, maybe the first large scale substitute for human labor that we've built like a machine. And, you know, in the beginning, when these things are getting deployed, the folks who got most of the value from the steam engines were the folks who had capital. So they could afford to build them and like they built factories around them and businesses. And the experts who knew how to build and maintain them. But access to that technology democratized over time. Like now, like, like an engine is not a, it's not like a differentiated thing. Like there isn't one engine company that builds all the engines and all of the things that use engines are made by this company.

• 12:11Speaker 01

  And like they get all the economics from all of that, like, no, no, like fully democratized. Like they're probably, you know, we're sitting here in this room and like, even though they don't, they're probably things, you know, like the the MEMS gyroscope that are in both of our foot. Like they're like little engines, you know, sort of everywhere. They they're just a component in how we build the modern world, like AI needs to get there.

• 12:34Lex Fridman?

  Yeah. So that's a really powerful way to think. If we think of AI as a platform versus a tool that Microsoft owns as a platform that enables creation.

• 12:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 12:46Lex Fridman?

  On top of it, that's the way to democratize it. That's really. That's really interesting, actually. And Microsoft throughout its history has been positioned well to do that.

• 12:55Speaker 01

  And the, you know, the tie back to the, to this radical markets thing, like the, so my, my team has been working with Glenn on this and Jaron Lanier, actually. So Jaron is the, like, the sort of father of virtual reality. Like, he's one of the most interesting human beings on the planet. Like, a sweet, sweet guy. And so Jaron and Glenn and folks in my team have been working on this notion of data is labor, or like they call it data dignity as well. And so the, the idea is that if you, you know, again, going back to this, you know,

• 13:35Speaker 01

  sort of industrial analogy, if you think about data as the raw material that is consumed by the machine of AI in order to do useful things, then like, we're not doing a really great job right now in having transparent marketplaces for valuing those data contributions. So like, and we all make them like explicitly, like you go to LinkedIn, you sort of set up your profile on LinkedIn, like that's an explicit contribution. Like, you know exactly the information that you're putting into the system. And like, you put it there because you have some nominal notion of like, what value you're going to get in return. But it's like only nominal, like you don't know exactly what value you're getting in

• 14:17Speaker 01

  return, like services free, you know, like it's low amount of like perceived. And then you've got all this indirect contribution that you're making just by virtue of interacting with all of the technology that's in your daily life. And so like what Glenn and Jaron and this data dignity team are trying to do is like, can we figure out a, a set of mechanisms that let us value those data contributions so that you could create an economy and like a set of controls and incentives that would allow people to like, maybe even in the limit, like earn part of their living through the data that they're creating. And like, you can sort of see it in explicit ways.

• 14:59Speaker 01

  There are these companies like Scale AI and like there are a whole bunch of them in, in China right now that are basically data labeling companies. So like you, you're doing supervised machine learning, you need, you need lots and lots of label training data. And like those people are getting, like who work for those companies are getting compensated for their data contributions into the system. And so.

• 15:24Lex Fridman?

  That's easier to put a number on their contribution because they're explicitly labeling data.

• 15:29Speaker 01

  Correct.

• 15:29Lex Fridman?

  But you're saying that we're all contributing data in different kinds of ways. And it's fascinating to start to explicitly try to put a number on it. Do you think that's possible?

• 15:39Speaker 01

  I don't know. It's hard. It really is. Because, you know, we don't have as much transparency as, as I think we need in like how the data is getting used. And it's, you know, super complicated. Like, you know, we, we, you know, I think as technologists sort of appreciate like some of the subtlety there. It's like, you know, the data, the data gets created and then it gets, you know, it's not valuable. Like the, the data exhaust that you give off or the, you know, the explicit data that I am putting into the system isn't value valuable.

• 16:20Speaker 01

  It's super valuable atomically. Like it's only valuable when you sort of aggregate it together into, you know, sort of large numbers. It's true even for these like folks who are getting compensated for like labeling things like for supervised machine learning now. Like you need lots of labels to train, you know, a model that performs well. And so, you know, I think that's one of the challenges. It's like, how do you, you know, how do you sort of figure out like, because this data is getting combined in so many ways, like through these combinations, like how the value is flowing.

• 16:53Lex Fridman?

  Yeah, that's, that's fascinating.

• 16:54Speaker 01

  Tough.

• 16:55Lex Fridman?

  Yeah. And it's fascinating that you're thinking about this. And I wasn't even going into this conversation expecting the breadth of, of research really that Microsoft broadly is thinking about. You are thinking about it, Microsoft. So if we go back to 89, when Microsoft released Office or 1990, when they released Windows 3.0, how's the, in your view, I know you weren't there the entire, you know, through its history, but how has the company changed in the 30 years since, as you look at it now?

• 17:30Speaker 01

  The good thing is it's started off as a platform company, like. It's still a platform company, like the parts of the business that are like thriving and most successful are those that are building platforms. Like the mission of the company now is, the mission's changed. It's like changed in a very interesting way. So, you know, back in 89, 90, like they were still on the original mission, which was like, put a PC on every desk and in every home. Like, and it was basically about democratizing access to this new personal computing technology, which when Bill started the company, integrated circuit microprocessors were a brand new thing.

• 18:14Speaker 01

  And like, people were building, you know, homebrew computers, you know, from kits like the way people build ham radios right now. And I think this is sort of the interesting thing for folks who build platforms in general. Bill saw the opportunity there and what personal computers could do. And it was like, it was sort of a reach. Like, you just sort of imagine like where things were, you know, when they started the company versus where things are now. Like, in success, when you've democratized a platform, it just sort of vanishes into the platform. You don't pay attention to it anymore. Like, operating systems aren't a thing anymore. Right. Like, they're super important, like completely critical.

• 18:55Speaker 01

  And like, you know, when you see one, you know, fail, like, you just, you sort of understand. But like, you know, it's not a thing where you're, you're not like waiting for, you know, the next operating system thing in the same way that you were in 1995, right? That's right. Like, in 1995, like, you know, we had Rolling Stones on the stage with the Windows 95 rollout. Like, it was like the biggest thing in the world. Everybody was like lined up for it, the way that people used to line up for iPhone. But like, you know, eventually, and like, this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Like, it just sort of, you know, it, the success is that it's sort of, it becomes ubiquitous. It's like everywhere, and like, human beings, when their technology becomes ubiquitous, they just sort of start taking it for granted.

• 19:35Speaker 01

  So, the mission now that Satya re-articulated five-plus years ago now, when he took over as CEO of the company.

• 19:46Speaker 01

  Our mission is to empower every individual and every organization in the world to be more successful. And so, you know, again, like, that's a platform mission. And like, the way that we do it now is is different. It's like we have a hyperscale cloud that people are building their applications on top of. Like, we have a bunch of AI infrastructure that people are building their AI applications on top of. We have, you know, we have a productivity suite of software, like Microsoft Dynamics, which, you know, some people might not think is the sexiest thing in the world, but it's like helping people figure out how to automate

• 20:27Speaker 01

  all of their business processes and workflows and, you know, like, help those businesses using it to, like, grow and be more. So it's a it's a much broader vision in a way now than it was back then. Like, it was sort of very particular thing. And like, now, like, we live in this world where technology is so powerful and it's like such a basic fact of life that it, you know, that it both exists and is going to get better and better over time, or at least more and more powerful over time. So like, you know, what you have to do as a platform player is just much bigger.

• 21:07Lex Fridman?

  Right. There's so many directions in which you can transform. You didn't mention mixed reality, too. You know, that's, that's probably early days, or it depends how you think of it. But if we think in a scale of centuries, it's the early days of mixed reality.

• 21:21Speaker 01

  Oh, for sure.

• 21:22Lex Fridman?

  And so, with how a lens, Microsoft is doing some really interesting work there. Do you do you touch that part of the effort? What's the thinking? Do you think of mixed reality as a platform, too?

• 21:34Speaker 01

  Oh, sure. When we look at what the platforms of the future could be, it's like fairly obvious that, like, AI is one. Like, you don't have to, I mean, like, that's, you know, you sort of say it to, like, someone and, you know, like, they they get it. But like, we also think of the, like, mixed reality and quantum as like, these two. Interesting, you know, potentially.

• 21:58Lex Fridman?

  Quantum computing?

• 21:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 21:59Lex Fridman?

  Okay, so let's get crazy then. So.

• 22:03Lex Fridman?

  So you're talking about some futuristic things here. Well, the mixed reality Microsoft is really not even futuristic is here.

• 22:09Speaker 01

  It is.

• 22:10Lex Fridman?

  Incredible stuff.

• 22:10Speaker 01

  And it and look, and it's having it's having impact right now. Like, one of the one of the more interesting things that's happened with mixed reality over the past couple of years that I didn't clearly see is that it's become the computing device for for folks who for doing their work who haven't used any computing device at all to do their work before. So technicians and service folks and people who are doing like machine maintenance on factory floors. So like they, you know, because they're mobile and like they're out in the world and they're working with their hands. And, you know, sort of servicing these like very complicated things there.

• 22:54Speaker 01

  They don't use their mobile phone and like they don't carry a laptop with them and, you know, they're not tethered to a desk. And so mixed reality, like where it's getting traction right now, where HoloLens is selling a lot of a lot of units is for these sorts of applications for these workers. And it's become like, I mean, like the people love it. They're like, oh, my God, like this is like for them, like the same sort of productivity boost that, you know, like an office worker had when they got their first personal computer.

• 23:25Lex Fridman?

  Yeah, but you did mention it's fairly obvious AI as a platform, but can we dig into it a little bit?

• 23:32Speaker 01

  Sure.

• 23:32Lex Fridman?

  How how does AI begin to infuse some of the products in Microsoft? So currently providing a training of, for example, neural networks in the cloud.

• 23:43Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 23:44Lex Fridman?

  Or providing.

• 23:46Lex Fridman?

  Pre-trained models or just even providing computing resources, whatever different inference that you want to do using neural networks.

• 23:56Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 23:56Lex Fridman?

  Well, how do you think of AI infusing as a platform that Microsoft can provide?

• 24:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, I think it's it's super interesting. It's like everywhere and like we we run these we run these review meetings now where it's me and Satya and like members of Satya's leadership team and like a cross-functional group of folks across the entire company who are working on like either AI infrastructure or like have some substantial part of their of their product work using AI in some significant way. Now, the important thing to understand is like when you think about like how the AI

• 24:43Speaker 01

  is going to manifest in like an experience for something that's going to make it better. Like, I think you don't want the the AI-ness to be the first order thing. It's like whatever the product is and like the thing that is trying to help you do like the AI just sort of makes it better. And, you know, this is a gross exaggeration, but like I, you know, people get super excited about like where the AI is showing up in products. And I'm like, do you get that excited about like where you're using a hash table like in your code? Like, it's just another.

• 25:18Lex Fridman?

  It's just a tool.

• 25:19Speaker 01

  It's a very interesting programming tool, but it's sort of a like it's an engineering tool. And so like it shows up everywhere. So like, we've got dozens and dozens of features now in Office that are powered by like fairly sophisticated machine learning. Our search engine wouldn't work at all if you took the machine learning out of it. The.

• 25:44Speaker 01

  Like increasingly, you know, things like content moderation on our Xbox and Xcloud platform.

• 25:54Lex Fridman?

  When you mean moderation, do you mean like the recommenders is like showing what you wanna look at next?

• 25:58Speaker 01

  No, no, no. It's like anti-bullying stuff.

• 26:01Lex Fridman?

  So the usual social network stuff that you have to deal with.

• 26:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, correct. But it's like, really, it's targeted, it's targeted towards a gaming audience. So it's like a very particular type of thing where, you know, the, the line between playful banter and like legitimate bullying is like a subtle one and like you have to, like, it's sort of tough. Like I have, I-

• 26:24Lex Fridman?

  I'd love to, if we could dig into it, because you're also, you led the engineering efforts of LinkedIn.

• 26:29Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 26:30Lex Fridman?

  And if we look at, if we look at LinkedIn as a social network.

• 26:34Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 26:34Lex Fridman?

  And if we look at Xbox gaming as the social components, the very different kinds of, I imagine, communication going on, on the two platforms, right? And the line in terms of bullying and so on is different on the two platforms. So how do you, I mean, it's such a fascinating philosophical discussion of where that line is. I don't think anyone knows the right answer. Twitter folks are under fire now, Jack at Twitter, for trying to find that line. Nobody knows what that line is. But how do you try to find the line for, you know, trying to prevent abusive behavior? And at the same time, let people be playful and joke around and that kind of thing?

• 27:19Speaker 01

  I think in a certain way, like, you know, if you have what I would call vertical social networks, it gets to be a little bit easier. So like, if you have a clear notion of like what your social network should be used for, or like what you are designing a community around, then you don't have as many dimensions to your sort of content safety problem as, you know, as you do in a general purpose platform. I mean, so like on, on LinkedIn.

• 27:54Speaker 01

  Like the whole social network is about connecting people with opportunity, whether it's helping them find a job or to, you know, sort of find mentors or to, you know, sort of help them like find their next sales lead or to just sort of allow them to broadcast their, their, you know, sort of professional identity to their, um, their network of peers and collaborators and, you know, sort of professional community. Like that is, I mean, like in some ways, like that's very, very broad. But in other ways, it's sort of, you know, it's narrow. And so like you can build AIs, uh, like machine learning systems

• 28:38Speaker 01

  that are, you know, capable with those boundaries of making better automated decisions about like what is, uh, you know, sort of inappropriate and offensive comment or dangerous comment or illegal content, uh, when you have some constraints. You know, same thing with, uh, yeah, same thing with like the, the gaming, gaming, social networks. So for instance, like it's about playing games, about having fun. Uh, and like the thing that you don't want to have happen on the platform is why bullying is such an important thing. Like bullying is not fun. So you want to do everything in your power to encourage that not to happen. And yeah, but I think it's a, it's sort of a tough problem in general.

• 29:21Speaker 01

  And it's one where I think, you know, eventually we're going to have to have some sort of clarification from our policymakers about what it is that we should be doing, like where the lines are. Because it's tough. Like you don't, like in democracy, right? Like you don't want, uh, you want some sort of democratic involvement. Like people should have a say in like where, where the lines, uh, lines are drawn. Like you don't want a bunch of people making like unilateral decisions. And like we, we are in a, we're in a state right now for some of these platforms where you actually do have to make unilateral decisions, where the policymaking isn't going to happen fast enough

• 30:05Speaker 01

  in order to like prevent very bad things from happening. But like we, we need the policymaking side of that to catch up, I think, as, as quickly as possible because you want that whole process to be a democratic thing, not a. You know, not, not some sort of weird thing where you've got a non-representative group of people making decisions that have, you know, like national and global impact.

• 30:29Lex Fridman?

  It's fascinating because the digital space is different than the, the physical space in which nations and governments were established. And so what policy looks like globally, what bullying looks like globally, what's healthy communication looks like globally is an open question. And we're all figuring it, figuring it out together, which is fascinating.

• 30:49Speaker 01

  Yeah. I mean, with, with, you know, sort of fake news, for instance, and

• 30:55Lex Fridman?

  deep fakes and fake news generated by humans?

• 30:59Speaker 01

  Yeah. So, I mean, we can talk about deep fakes. Like, I think that is another, like, you know, sort of very interesting level of complexity. But like, if you think about just the written word, right? Like, we have, you know, we invented papyrus, what, 3,000 years ago, where we, you know, you could sort of put, put word on, on paper. And then, uh, 500 years ago, like, we, we get the printing press, like, where the word gets a little bit more ubiquitous. And then, like, you really, really didn't get ubiquitous printed word until the end of the 19th century, when the offset press was invented. And then, you know, just sort of explodes and like, you know, the cross-product of that and the

• 31:43Speaker 01

  industrial revolutions need for educated citizens resulted in, like, this rapid expansion of literacy and the rapid expansion of the word. But like, we had 3,000 years up to that point to figure out, like, how to, you know, like, what's, what's journalism? What's editorial integrity? Like, what's, you know, what's scientific peer review? And so like, you built all of this mechanism to like, try to filter through all of the noise that the technology made possible to like, you know, sort of getting to something that society could cope with. And like, if you think about just the piece, the PC

• 32:24Speaker 01

  didn't exist 50 years ago. Uh, and so in like, this span of, you know, like, half a century, like, we've gone from no digital, you know, no ubiquitous digital technology to like, having a device that sits in your pocket where you can sort of say whatever is on your mind to like, What would Mary Haven or Mary Meeker just released her new like slide deck last week? You know, we've got 50% penetration of the of the internet to the global population. Like there are like three and a half billion people who are connected now. So it's like, it's crazy, crazy, like inconceivable, like how fast all of this happens. So, you know, it's not surprising that we haven't figured out what to do yet.

• 33:08Speaker 01

  But like, we gotta like, we gotta really like lean into this set of problems because like we basically have three millennia worth of work to do about how to deal with all of this and like probably what amounts to the next decade worth of time.

• 33:24Lex Fridman?

  So since we're on the topic of tough, you know, tough, challenging problems, let's look at more on the tooling side in AI that Microsoft is looking at is face recognition software. So there's, there's a lot of powerful positive use cases.

• 33:38Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 33:39Lex Fridman?

  For face recognition, but there's some negative ones that we're seeing.

• 33:42Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 33:42Lex Fridman?

  Those in different governments in the world. So how do you, how does Microsoft think about the use of face recognition software as a platform in governments and companies? How do we strike an ethical balance here?

• 33:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think we've articulated a clear point of view. So Brad Smith wrote a blog post last fall, I believe, that sort of like outlined like very specifically what, you know, what our, what our point of view is there. And, you know, I think we believe that there are certain uses to which face recognition should not be put. And we believe, again, that there's a need for regulation there. Like the, the government should like really come in and say that, you know, this is, this is where the lines are. And like, we very much wanted to, like, figuring out where the lines are should be a democratic process. But in the short term, like, we've drawn some lines where, you

• 34:42Speaker 01

  know, we push back against uses of face recognition technology. You know, like, the city of San Francisco, for instance, I think, has completely outlawed any government agency from using face recognition tech. And like, that may prove to be a little bit overly broad. But for like, certain law enforcement things, like, you really, I would personally rather be overly cautious in terms of restricting use of it until, like, we have, you know, sort of defined a reasonable, you know, democratically determined regulatory framework for, like, where we could and should use it. And, you know,

• 35:26Speaker 01

  the other thing there is, like, we've got a bunch of research that we're doing and a bunch of progress that we've made on bias there. And like, there are all sorts of, like, weird biases that these models can have, like, all the way from, like, the most noteworthy one, where, you know, you may have underrepresented minorities who are, like, underrepresented in the training data, and then you start learning, like, strange things. But like, there are even, you know, other weird things. Like, we've, I think we've seen in the public research, like, models can learn strange things, like,

• 36:08Speaker 01

  all doctors are men, for instance. Yeah, I mean, so, like, it really is a thing where it's very important for everybody who is working on these things before they push publish, they launch the experiment, they, you know, push the code, you know, online, or they even publish the paper, that they are at least starting to think about what some of the potential negative consequences are of some of this stuff. I mean, this is where, you know, like, the deep fake stuff, I find very worrisome, just because...

• 36:52Speaker 01

  There are going to be some very good beneficial uses of like GAN-generated imagery.

• 37:03Speaker 01

  And funny enough, like, one of the places where it's actually useful is we're using the technology right now to generate synthetic, synthetic visual data for training some of the face recognition models to get rid of the bias.

• 37:19Lex Fridman?

  Right.

• 37:20Speaker 01

  So like, that's one, like, super good use of the tech, but like,

• 37:25Speaker 01

  you know, it's getting good enough now where, you know, it's going to sort of challenge a normal human being's ability to, like, now you're just sort of say, like, it's, it's very expensive for someone to fabricate a photorealistic fake video. And like, GANs are going to make it fantastically cheap to fabricate a photorealistic fake video. And so like, what you assume you can sort of trust is true versus like, be skeptical about is about to change. And like, we're not ready for it, I don't think.

• 37:57Lex Fridman?

  The nature of truth, right. That's, uh, it's also exciting because I think both you and I probably would agree that the way to solve, to take on that challenge is with technology.

• 38:09Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 38:09Lex Fridman?

  Right. There's probably going to be ideas of, of ways to verify which, uh, which kind of video is legitimate, which kind is not. So, uh, to me, that's an exciting possibility, most, most likely for just the comedic genius that the internet usually creates with these kinds of videos.

• 38:27Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 38:28Lex Fridman?

  And, uh, hopefully will not result in any serious harm.

• 38:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, and it could be, you know, like, I think we will have technology to,

• 38:38Speaker 01

  that may be able to detect whether or not something's fake or real, although, yeah.

• 38:44Speaker 01

  The fakes are pretty convincing, even like when you subject them to machine scrutiny. But you know, we also have these increasingly interesting social networks, you know, that are under fire right now for some of the bad things that they do. Like, one of the things you could choose to do with a social network is like you could, you could use crypto and the networks to like have content signed where you could have a like full chain of custody that accompanied every piece of content. So like when you're viewing something and like you want to ask yourself like how, you know, how much can I trust this?

• 39:28Speaker 01

  Like you can click something and like have a verified chain of custody that shows like, oh, this is coming from, you know, from this source and it's like signed by like someone whose identity I trust.

• 39:40Lex Fridman?

  Yeah.

• 39:41Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think having the, you know, having that chain of custody, like being able to like say, oh, here's this video, like it may or may not have been produced using some of this deep fake technology. But if you've got a verified chain of custody where you can sort of trace it all the way back to an identity and you can decide whether or not like I trust this identity, like, oh, no, this is really from the White House or like this is really from the, you know, the office of this particular presidential candidate or it's really from, you know, Jeff Weiner, CEO of LinkedIn or Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft. Like that might, that might be like one way that you can solve some of the problems. So like, that's not the super high tech, like we've had all of this technology forever.

• 40:21Lex Fridman?

  Right.

• 40:21Speaker 01

  And I, but, but I think you're right. Like it has to, it has to be some sort of technological thing because the, the underlying tech that is used to create this is not going to do anything but get better over time and the genie is sort of out of the bottle. There's no stuffing it back in.

• 40:39Lex Fridman?

  And there's a social component, which I think is really healthy for a democracy where people be skeptical about the thing they watch.

• 40:47Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 40:47Lex Fridman?

  In general, uh, so, you know, which is good. Skepticism in general is good.

• 40:53Speaker 01

  It is good.

• 40:54Lex Fridman?

  Content, so deepfakes in that sense are creating global skepticism about can they trust what they read? It encourages further research. I come from the Soviet Union. Where basically, nobody trusted the media because you knew it was propaganda. And that encouraged, that kind of skepticism encouraged further research about ideas. Yeah. As opposed to just trusting any one source.

• 41:19Speaker 01

  Well, like, I think it's one of the reasons why the, you know, the scientific method and our apparatus of modern science is so good. Like, because you don't have to trust anything. Like, you, like, the whole notion of, you know, like, modern science beyond the fact that, you know, this is a hypothesis and this is an experiment to test the hypothesis. And, you know, like, this is a peer review process for scrutinizing published results. But, like, stuff's also supposed to be reproducible. So, like, you know it's been vetted by this process, but like, you also are expected to publish enough detail where, you know, if you are sufficiently skeptical of the thing, you can go try to, like, reproduce it yourself.

• 42:01Speaker 01

  And like, I, I don't know what it is, like, I think a lot of engineers are like this, where like, you know, sort of this, like, your brain is sort of wired for skepticism. Like, you don't just first order trust everything that you see and encounter. And like, you're sort of curious to understand, you know, the next thing. But I, I think it's an entirely healthy, healthy thing. And like, we need a little bit more of that right now.

• 42:29Lex Fridman?

  So, I'm not a large business owner. So, I'm just, I'm just a huge fan of many of Microsoft products. I mean, I still, actually, in terms of, I generate a lot of graphics and images and I still use PowerPoint to do that. It beats Illustrator for me, even professional, sort of, it's fascinating. So, I wonder, what is the future of, let's say, Windows and Office look like? Is, do you see it? I mean, I remember looking forward to XP, was an exciting.

• 43:04Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 43:04Lex Fridman?

  When XP was released, just like you said, I don't remember when 95 was released. But XP for me was a big celebration. And when 10 came out, I was like, okay, well, it's nice, it's a nice improvement.

• 43:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 43:16Lex Fridman?

  So what do you see is the future of these products?

• 43:20Speaker 01

  You know, I think there's a bunch of exciting, I mean, on the office front, there's going to be this like increasing productivity wins that are coming out of some of these AI-powered features that are coming, like the products are sort of get smarter and smarter in like a very subtle way. Like, there's not going to be this big bang moment where, you know, like Clippy is going to reemerge and it's going to be-

• 43:45Lex Fridman?

  Wait a minute. Okay, well, I have to wait, wait, wait. Is Clippy coming back? Well, it's quite seriously, um, so injection of AI, there's not much, or at least I'm not familiar, sort of assistive type of stuff going on inside the office products, like a Clippy-style assistant, personal assistant. Do you think that's, there's a possibility of that in the future?

• 44:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, so I think there are a bunch of like very small ways in which like machine learning-powered assistive things are in the product right now. So there are, there are a bunch of interesting things like,

• 44:24Speaker 01

  the auto-response stuff's getting better and better and it's like getting to the point where, you know, it can auto-respond with like, okay, let, you know, this person's clearly trying to schedule a meeting. So it looks at your calendar and it automatically like tries to find like a time and a space that's mutually interesting. Like, we, we have this notion of Microsoft Search where it's like not just web search, but it's like search across like all of your information that's sitting inside of like your Office 365 tenant and like, you know, potentially in other products. And like, we have this thing called the Microsoft Graph

• 45:06Speaker 01

  that is basically an API federator that, uh, you know, sort of like gets you- Hooked up across the entire breadth of like all of the, you know, like what were information silos before they got woven together with a graph. Like that is like getting increasing with increasing effectiveness sort of plumbed into the into some of these auto response things where you're going to be able to see the system like automatically retrieve information for you like if, you know, like I frequently send out, you know, emails to folks where like I can't find a paper or a document or whatnot. There's no reason why the system won't be able to do that for you. And like, I think the, the, it's building towards like having things that look more

• 45:50Speaker 01

  like, like a fully integrated, you know, assistant. But like you, you'll have a bunch of steps that you will see before you, like it will not be this like big bang thing where like Clippy comes back and you've got this like, you know, manifestation of, you know, like a fully, fully powered assistant. So I, I think that's, um, that's definitely coming in like all of the, you know, collaboration, co-authoring stuff's getting better, uh, you know, it's like really interesting. Like if you look at how we use, uh, the office product portfolio at Microsoft, like more and more of it is happening inside of, uh, like teams as a canvas.

• 46:31Speaker 01

  And like, it's this thing where, you know, you've got collaboration is like at the center of the product and, uh, like we, we, we built some like really cool stuff that's some of, which is about to be open source that are sort of framework level things for doing, uh, for doing co-authoring.

• 46:52Lex Fridman?

  That's awesome. So in, is there a cloud component to that? So on the web or is it, um, and forgive me if I don't already know this, but with Office 365, we still, the collaboration we do, if we're doing Word, we're still send the file around.

• 47:07Speaker 01

  No, no, no. Yeah, this is. We're already a little bit better than that. And like, you know, so like the fact that you're on a warehouse, it means we've got a better job to do, like helping you discover, uh, discover this stuff.

• 47:20Speaker 01

  But yeah, I mean, it's already like got a huge, huge clout component. And like part of, you know, part of this framework stuff, I think we're calling it like I, like we've been working on it for a couple of years. So like, I know the, the internal codename for it, but I think when we launched it, it bill is called the fluid framework.

• 47:39Speaker 01

  And but like what fluid lets you do is like, you can go into a conversation that you're having in teams and like reference, like part of a spreadsheet that you're working on, where somebody's like sitting in the Excel canvas, like working on the spreadsheet with a, you know, chart or whatnot. And like, you can sort of embed like part of the spreadsheet in the team's conversation, where like you can dynamically update and like all of the changes that you're making to the, to this object are like, you know, cord and everything is sort of updating in, in real time. So like, you can be in whatever canvas is most convenient for you to get your work done.

• 48:17Lex Fridman?

  So I, out of my own sort of creativity as engineer, I, I know what it's like to sort of lead a team of 10, 15 engineers. Microsoft has, I don't know what the numbers are, maybe 50, maybe 60,000 engineers, maybe 40.

• 48:32Speaker 01

  I don't know exactly what the number is. It's a lot. It's, it's tens of thousands.

• 48:35Lex Fridman?

  Right. This is more than 10 or 15.

• 48:39Lex Fridman?

  What, I mean, you've, you've led different sizes, mostly large size of engineers. What does it take to lead such a large group into a continue innovation, continue being highly productive and yet develop all kinds of new ideas? And yet maintain like, what does it take to lead such a large group of brilliant people?

• 49:06Speaker 01

  I think the thing that you learn as you manage larger and larger scale is that there are three things that are like very, very important for big engineering teams. Like one is like having some sort of forethought about.

• 49:25Speaker 01

  What it is that you're going to be building over large periods of time? Like, not exactly, like, you don't need to know that, like, you know, I'm putting all my chips on this one product and like, this is going to be the thing. But like, it's useful to know, like, what sort of capabilities you think you're going to need to have to build the products of the future? And then like, invest in that infrastructure, like whether, and I like, I'm not just talking about storage systems or cloud APIs. It's also like, what does your development process look like? What tools do you want? Like, what culture do you want to build around? Like, how you're, you know, sort of collaborating together to like, make complicated technical things? And so like, having an opinion and investing in that is like, it just gets more and more important.

• 50:07Speaker 01

  And like, the sooner you can get a concrete set of opinions, uh, like, the better you're going to be. Like, you can wing it for a while, uh, at small scales, like, you know, when you start a company, like, you don't have to be like, super specific about it. But like, the biggest miseries that I've ever seen as an engineering leader are in places where you didn't have a clear enough opinion about those things, uh, soon enough. And then you just sort of go create a bunch of technical debt and like, culture debt that is excruciatingly painful to, to clean up. So like, that's one bundle of things.

• 50:45Speaker 01

  Like, the other, uh, the other, you know, another bundle of things is, like, it's just really, really important to,

• 50:56Speaker 01

  like, have a, a clear mission that's not just some cute crap you say because like, you think you should have a mission. But like, something that clarifies for people, like, where it is that you're headed together.

• 51:14Speaker 01

  Like, I know it's like, probably like, a little bit too popular right now, but, uh, um. Yuval Harari's book Sapiens, one of the central ideas in his book is that like storytelling is like the quintessential thing for coordinating the activities of large groups of people. Like, once you get past Dunbar's number, and like, I've really, really seen that, just managing engineering teams, like, you can, you can just brute force things when you're less than 120, 150 folks, where you can sort of know and trust and understand what the dynamics are

• 51:57Speaker 01

  between all the people. But like, past that, like, things just sort of start to catastrophically fail if you don't have some sort of set of shared goals that you're marching towards. And so, like, even though it sounds touchy feely, and, you know, like, a bunch of technical people will sort of balk at the idea that, like, you need to, like, have a clear, like, the missions, like, very, very, very important.

• 52:20Lex Fridman?

  Yuval's right, right? Stories, that's how our society, that's the fabric that connects us, all of us, is these powerful stories. And that works for companies, too.

• 52:30Speaker 01

  It works for everything. Like, I mean, even down to, like, you know, you sort of really think about it, like, our currency, for instance, is a story. Our constitution is a story. Our laws are, I mean, like, we believe very, very, very strongly in them, and thank God we do. But like, they are, they're, they're just abstract things, like, they're just words. Like, if we don't believe in them, they're nothing.

• 52:53Lex Fridman?

  And in some sense, those stories are platforms, and the kinds, some of which Microsoft is creating, right? They have platforms on which we define the future. So, last question, what do you, let's get philosophical, maybe, bigger than even Microsoft, what do you think the next 20, 30-plus years looks like for computing, for technology, for devices? Do you have crazy ideas about the future of the world?

• 53:21Speaker 01

  Yeah, look, I think we, you know, we're entering this time where we've got, we have technology that is progressing at the fastest rate that it ever has, and you've got...

• 53:35Speaker 01

  You got some really big social problems, like society scale problems that we have to, we have to tackle. And so, you know, I think we're going to rise to the challenge and like, figure out how to intersect like all of the power of this technology with all of the big challenges that are facing us, whether it's, you know, global warming, whether it's like the biggest remainder of the population boom is in Africa for the next 50 years or so. And like global warming is going to make it increasingly difficult to feed the global population, in particular, like in this place where you're going to have like the biggest population boom. I think we, you know, like AI is gonna, like if we push it in the right

• 54:20Speaker 01

  direction, like it can do like incredible things to empower all of us to achieve our full potential and to, you know, like live better lives. But like that also means focus on like some super important things, like how can you apply it to healthcare to make sure that, you know, like our, our quality and cost of, and sort of ubiquity of health coverage is, is better and better over time. Like that's more and more important every day is like in the, in the United States and like the rest of the industrialized world.

• 55:00Speaker 01

  So Western Europe, China, Japan, Korea, like you've got this population bubble of like aging, working, you know, working age folks who are, you know, at some point over the next 20, 30 years, they're going to be largely retired. And like you're, you're going to have more retired people than working age people. And then like you've got, you know, sort of natural questions about who's going to take care of all the old folks and who's going to do all the work. And The answers to like all of these sorts of questions, like where you're sort of running into, you know, like constraints of the, you know, the, the, the world and of society has always been like, what tech is gonna like help us get around this? You know, like when I was, when I was a kid in the seventies

• 55:43Speaker 01

  and eighties, like we talked all the time about like, oh, like population boom, population boom, like we're gonna, like we're not gonna be able to like feed the planet. And like, we were like right in the middle of the green revolution where like this, this massive technology driven increase in crop productivity like worldwide. And like some of that was like taking some of the things that we knew in the West and like getting them distributed to the, you know, to the, to the developing world. And like part of it were things like, um, you know, just smarter biology, like helping us increase. And like, we don't talk about like, yeah,

• 56:23Speaker 01

  overpopulation anymore because like we can more or less, we, we sort of figured out how to feed the world. Like that's a, that's a technology story. Um, and so like I'm, I'm super, super hopeful about the future and in the ways where we will be able to apply technology to solve some of these super challenging problems. Uh, like I've, I've, like, one of the things that I, uh, I'm trying to spend my time doing right now is trying to get everybody else to be hopeful as well because, you know, back to Harari, like we, we are the stories that we tell. Like if we, you know, if we get overly pessimistic right now about, uh, like the, the potential

• 57:04Speaker 01

  future of technology, like we, you know, like we, we may fail to fail to get all of the things in place that we need to like have our best possible future.

• 57:14Lex Fridman?

  And that kind of hopeful optimism, I'm glad that you have it because you're leading large groups of engineers that are actually defining, that are writing that story, that are helping build that future, which is super exciting.

• 57:26Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 57:27Lex Fridman?

  And, uh, I agree with everything you said, except I do hope Clippy comes back. We miss them. I speak for the people. So, Galen, thank you so much for talking today. Thank you so much for having me. It was a pleasure.