
Written by a model from the transcript; not yet reviewed.
This episode explores the fragility built into modern financial markets through two major recent events: the collapse of Leopold Ashenbrenner's AI-focused fund Situational Awareness and the emergency currency intervention by the US and Japan to support the plunging yen. Host Ed Elson speaks with Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, about how excessive leverage and levered ETFs create devastating volatility drag and endogenous selling feedback loops. Later, Financial Times columnist Katie Martin joins the show to discuss why the US Treasury took the unprecedented step of intervening alongside Tokyo to backstop the Japanese yen, the interconnected role of US Treasury demand, and the geopolitical calculus of foreign exchange management. Finally, the episode examines the launch of Trump Media's Truth API, which sells high-speed access to presidential social media posts to high-frequency trading firms for $100,000 per month.
Hosts open the episode with Google Chrome and stamps.com advertisements before transitioning to the main content.
Ed Elson reviews the day’s market movements, highlighting record highs, commodity shifts, and currency dynamics.
The episode details Leopold Ashenbrenner’s rapid rise and fall, illustrating the dangers of high leverage in AI-focused funds.
Michael Green explains how leveraged ETFs amplify volatility drag, leading to catastrophic losses when markets swing.
The discussion covers South Korea’s 44% market plunge, margin calls, and the country’s eventual ban on leveraged ETFs.
Katie Martin and the host analyze the U.S. Treasury’s unprecedented support for Japan’s yen, exploring geopolitical and market implications.
The episode critiques Trump’s new data feed service, highlighting its potential impact on high-frequency trading and regulatory concerns.
Situational Awareness Fund Collapsestory
Leopold Ashenbrenner's fund lost $35 billion in six days after using up to 400% leverage to bet on AI infrastructure and software disintermediation, forcing a fire sale to Citadel.
Lack of Learning Mechanismsinsight
Michael Green explains that because non-public entities do not reprice transparently, young fund managers running extreme leverage have no mechanism to learn the dangers of market volatility.
The Mechanics of Volatility Dragstrategy
Daily rebalancing in levered ETFs creates a compounding mathematical penalty called volatility drag, which requires massive annual returns simply to break even.
South Korean Market Falloutdata
South Korea banned levered ETFs after the Kospi crashed 44% from its highs, sparking massive margin calls and protests from retail investors.
US and Japan Currency Interventionstory
The US Treasury joined Japan in intervening to support the yen for the first time since 2011, selling currencies to stop a slide that hit a 40-year low.
Protecting US Treasuriesinsight
Katie Martin explains that the US participated in the currency intervention primarily to prevent Japan from dumping its massive holdings of US Treasuries.
Intervention Using Third-Party Currenciesdata
The US intervened in the yen market using euros from its reserve pot, marking a rare and confusing curveball in foreign exchange operations.
Truth API Subscription Feeddata
Trump Media launched Truth API, charging financial firms $100,000 per month for real-time, early access to market-moving social media posts.
“the fund had lost roughly $35 billion in assets, plunging from a peak of $45 billion to around $10 billion.”
“Situational Awareness reportedly used as much as 400% leverage to amplify its bets on AI infrastructure.”
“If you imagine a series in which I make 10% today and lose 10% tomorrow, many people would assume that the answer to that is I now have a zero return.”
“In a postscript, Ashenbrenner wrote that it was, quote, "a particularly good time to add funds."”
“assets under management in US leveraged ETFs have reached a record $218 billion, up 60% since the end of March.”
Ed Elson is joined by Michael Green to discuss the role that leverage played in the turmoil with Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund, Situational Awareness, and how leveraged-ETFs are impacting the semiconductor industry. Then, Katie Martin returns to break down why the U. S. intervened to help Japan with the yen and whether the U. S. is actually in a position to prop up the currency. Finally, Ed gives his take on Trump’s decision to sell early access to his social media posts. Michael Green is the Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management and author of the Yes I give a fig Substack. Katie Martin is a markets columnist and editorial board member at the Financial Times. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets Youtube Channel Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack Follow Scott on Instagram Send us your questions or comments by emailing [email protected] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
5,937 words · 11 speakers
Speaker names marked are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
Page updated · transcript and summary are machine-generated