#804 Bitcoin Whales Are Starting To Accumulate w/ Will Clemente

Will Clemente is the Lead Insights Analyst at Blockware. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various on-chain analytics. In this conversation, we discuss the bitcoin fundamentals, on-chain metrics, what happened in the past week, and what the on-chain data is telling us to be prepared for moving forward. Will joins us every Friday on "The Best Business Show." To see the video with the corresponding charts that Will references throughout the interview, go to "The Best Business Show: LIVE" YouTube Channel ======================= Exodus is leading the world out of the traditional financial system by building beautiful and user-friendly blockchain products. With its focus on design and user experience, Exodus has become one of the most popular and loved cryptocurrency apps. It’s supported on both desktop and mobile, allowing you to sync your wallet across multiple devices so you can have access to your funds anywhere. You can instantly exchange around 100 different cryptocurrencies straight from your wallet. Interactive charts let you view an asset’s price history and your portfolio’s performance over time. And maybe the best part, Exodus is integrated with the Trezor hardware wallet - making advanced security easy for everyone. Visit exodus.com/pomp for your free download or search Exodus on the App Store or Playstore. ======================= The fastest way to double your Bitcoin is at MyBookie. Instead of taking an altcoin gamble, invest in your sports knowledge. Set yourself up for success by doubling your first Bitcoin deposit when using promo code POMP at MyBookie. Deposit with Bitcoin and double your initial deposit up to $1000. Crypto is the best way to play at MyBookie because there are no fees, faster payouts and bigger bonuses. Playing with crypto also gets you access to exclusive crypto contests – NFL Crypto Survivor, NCAA March Madness Crypto Bracket Contest and more! Click here to get started. MyBookie accepts; Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and Ripple. The deals don’t stop after your initial deposit. Take advantage of our industry leading Crypto Re-up bonus and receive a 15% cash bonus on all crypto deposits made AFTER your initial deposit!

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is the Lead Insights Analyst at Blockware. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, the market structure, on-chain analytics, and where we go from here. I really enjoyed this weekly conversation with Will, as always, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Exodus, the world's leading desktop, mobile, and hardware crypto wallet. They offer beautiful, user-friendly blockchain products that sync across all of your devices, making it easier to send, receive, and exchange over 150 or

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• 2:12Anthony Pompliano?

  Bet anything, anytime, anywhere with my bookie.

• 2:16Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 2:39Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, we got a whole bunch of stuff. We're going to rip through these charts and then we'll talk to you about some sentiment stuff afterwards. But let's just start with the on-chain data, which really the first on-chain is actually exchange data, which is the price. So obviously Bitcoin's fallen in recent weeks. What are you thinking about price? What are you seeing in terms of resistance, support, etc.?

• 3:02Speaker 02

  Sure. So we can first just start with a couple of price levels I drew out. So I think, you know, the level we were previously talking about was 40K. And now that we flipped that previous, you know, strong support level as resistance. And that's now going to, you know, serve as the most important resistance for us to, you know, flip in the, in the local intermediate term. And then as well, the most, you know, the strongest support we have below is 30K. That's kind of confluence across several different timeframes. So it's just basic little price levels that I think are important to be watching.

• 3:35Anthony Pompliano?

  And when you look at this other chart you have around Coinbase and this idea of front-running, explain exactly what happened. I saw you tweeting about this this week and I was fascinated that you were able to find this. What was happening on Coinbase when we kind of reached that, that low or that bottom?

• 3:51Speaker 02

  Sure. So I think, you know, if we really zoom out, we're kind of just in this range between 30 and 60, call it. And so, you know, you can look in the order books and see there's a lot of bids that are stacked around 28 to 30K, which were those prior lows from the summer. So I think there's, there's a, you know, fair amount of demand down at that support level. But whenever there's, you know, whenever there's transparently a lot of demand in a certain area, that'll get front ran, right? So someone can say, okay, well, everyone wants to buy at 30K. I'll just step in and buy at $30,001, right? And so in this case, you did have an entity that started to kind of front run some of those bids that were stacked as we broke. Below thirty-three K.

• 4:34Speaker 02

  And in particular, the entity or group of entities seem to be coming from Coinbase. So we can see that in several different ways. So first of all, just through looking at volume, we saw a large spike in volume coming from Coinbase. We can also see that in the heat map when we're looking at all the bids and asks on the heat map. And then the third thing is we can look at something called cumulative volume delta. And so this just is telling you is price moving to the bid or the ask? So as you can see, the spike up in CVD around where we bottomed out right below thirty K, we saw that large uptick in Coinbase, which was showing you that a pretty aggressive bid from Coinbase had been stepping in.

• 5:15Anthony Pompliano?

  And so when you see that happening, is that something that people can identify before it happens? Or is this data only once it's actually occurred, right? Because it's not like on the blockchain where you can see like a mempool or something like that. Instead, you almost have to see that it actually got filled. Okay, there was that spike in volume and then it's, you know, maybe you can tell almost in real time, kind of right after it occurs. But you can't actually see that. So it's impossible for somebody to front run the front runner to some degree.

• 5:42Speaker 02

  Yeah, I guess so. I guess I guess that's accurate. You know, you could you could see the bids and asks, right? So you can see, are there bids and asks set in the order book? You know, someone, it's like for, you know, for in layman's terms, if you're like on eBay, right? And you're bidding for something, you say, okay, you know, I don't deem the current, you know, price that this is being priced at at market value, you know, where I'd be interested in purchasing this. So I'll set a bid below, you know, if it gets filled, great. If not, then that's not what I deem fair value for this, right? And so it's pretty much the same thing, right? You have someone coming in and saying, well, I'm not interested at buying BTC at this price, but I will be interested at, you know, if we get down below, so I'll set a bid at that at that price.

• 6:23Speaker 02

  And so it's a bit more nuanced than that. You get, you know, a lot of spoofs in the order books and all that kind of thing. But generally speaking, that's kind of the premise behind looking at bids and asks, right? And then you can look at what are the active bid, what you know, what are the active orders coming through the market? So, you know, the bids and asks, they're great to look at, but at the end of the day, they're really just advertisements. What you really need to see is, you know, what are the orders that are actually getting filled? Because when someone's setting a bidder ask again, it's an advertisement, it's someone just saying, you know, I'm putting this in the order book, you know, here, everyone look at it, right? Versus someone stepping in the market and actually market buying. And so of course you can't see that beforehand. We can't see that as it's occurring. And so you did see that uptick in volume as well, CBD ticking up as that started to occur.

• 7:08Speaker 02

  Once we broke below thirty three and this was on Monday. So and you saw in the in the day after as well, another kind of steady bid during New York hours. So there is some type of entity or group of entities that was interested in buying around that thirty three K area.

• 7:23Anthony Pompliano?

  When you mentioned spoofing, real quick, explain what that is for folks who don't understand some of the the kind of complexity and nuance of what folks are doing in these order books. That that can affect price to some degree.

• 7:34Speaker 02

  Sure. So spoofing is something that's like illegal in traditional markets. But in the Bitcoin market, because a lot of, you know, these exchanges are more unregulated, it does occur a lot. The premise behind this is, again, bids and asks are basically just advertisements. So let's say that, you know, I wanted to fill up my bags. So what I can do is, and I'm a whale and price is starting to run away from me. I can set, you know, a large wall of asks above the current price, cap off the price because no one's going to want to buy into that big wall of of sell orders. Right. And then I can actually be filling my bags. So using those, those, you know, those fake asks, the spoof asks to actually generate liquidity.

• 8:15Speaker 02

  Because everyone's going to close out their longs or short into that wall of asks so that I can fill my bags. Or conversely, I could set a wall of bids below if I'm trying to get out of the market. Because no one's going to want to sell into that big wall of buys. Meanwhile, I'm actually using that liquidity to exit the market. So again, like, there's a lot of nuance to this. But when we talk about spoofing, that's what we're talking about is basically using bids and asks to your advantage to kind of generate your liquidity to get in and out of positions. And this is something, again, that's illegal in traditional markets. But because a lot of these exchanges are less regulated, it does occur on a on a fairly regular basis in the Bitcoin market.

• 8:53Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then let's look at the the supply shock ratios. We've been talking about this now for for almost a year, I think, and you've been all over this. So what are you seeing with the supply shock ratios? It looks like it's pretty bullish in terms of what you would expect right now in a price drawdown.

• 9:08Speaker 02

  Right. So I think we first need to preface. With like in any market, there's supply and demand, right? And so there's been a lot of people that have been saying, what happened to the supply shock? Right? You're talking about a supply shock, right? For a supply shock to occur, you need low available, you need low available supply plus demand. Okay. And so this is just looking at the demand side. So what this is telling you is in layman's terms, it's showing you the movement of coins from strong to weak hands or from weak to strong hands. And the way I'm defining that is by the spending behavior of the entities on the blockchain. So you're tracking the movement of coins from entities that have a high, high tendency to sell to entities that have a low tendency to sell, right?

• 9:50Speaker 02

  Low tendency to sell being illiquid entities, hence liquid supply shock ratio. And so what you can see is throughout 2017 with an uptrend in this until once we finally broke below that, that, you know, uptrend that marks the 2017 top almost to, almost to the tick. Uh, as well as we, you know, once we broke below the uptrend from, uh, late 2020, early 2021, that kind of gave you a preface that we were going to have this drawdown in May. Uh, we continue to move up off of the summer lows and this continues to just grind up and up and up. Uh, but of course, again, this is only speaking to the supply side. So this is just telling you the quality of Bitcoin's float is very healthy right now.

• 10:31Speaker 02

  But I do think the kind of lackluster of demand on the other side of the equation has been kind of driven by this macro uncertainty. You know, we're talking about like monetary tightening. We've seen general, you know, risk off behavior from the NASDAQ and just overall equities. So, uh, I think that's kind of to blame for the lackluster of demand. But when we talk about what does the supply side look like, which I do think is very important to still keep in mind because that's one half of the equation, that still does look very healthy. You still do have very strong hodling behavior.

• 11:02Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. What, what's fascinating to me, and I was actually talking to somebody this morning about it is like, it feels like there's basically a bifurcation of people using Bitcoin. Some of the folks who are more the institutional investors, uh, the Wall Street hedge funds, et cetera. Bitcoin is the riskiest asset they have in their portfolio, right? It is the risk asset. It's kind of the pure macro asset. And when you look at that, they're going to sell it in times of the Federal Reserve kind of talking tough and talking about raising interest rates, et cetera, you know, risk off and let me go back into more conservative assets. But then there's this whole community of Bitcoiners that actually treat Bitcoin as the reserve asset. They don't sit there and treat it as a risk asset. And so they don't care what goes on at the Fed. They're going to just continue to stack. And I think that's what you're seeing here with these kind of strong hands.

• 11:44Anthony Pompliano?

  They just continue to buy Bitcoin and at cheaper prices they get excited because it's transferring it from the short-term kind of weak hands to the strong hands, which, you know, if people were paying attention last summer, you and I spent literally week after week after week talking about that theme and then eventually it led to some, you know, pretty crazy fireworks. So let's look at on the demand side, whale balances. What are you seeing here?

• 12:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, um, if you don't mind, like, just to touch on what you just said.

• 12:09Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, of course.

• 12:10Speaker 02

  I think like the big difference between like now and then is back then we still had a dovish Fed, right? So you still had a favorable monetary backdrop for Bitcoin versus now, again, you know, there's been a lot of fears around macro uncertainty, which is kind of, you know, in my opinion, driven this lackluster of demand that we haven't seen. And then to comment on your other point, I completely agree. I posted a chart this week, if anyone's interested and wants to like scroll back on my Twitter, I just threw it in the newsletter. It's looking at all entities, I think we talked about this before, actually, on the show, it's looking at all entities less than 10 BTC and then comparing that to overall circulating supply. I mean, and this chart literally goes up and to the right. And so this is just showing you exactly what you just said in form of data, which is just that there's a hardcore base of, you know, hodlers that are just dollar-cost averaging

• 12:55Speaker 02

  into this asset no matter what. Of course, you know, their balances uptick more so in a bull market because you have more speculative market, which has been stepping in. But generally, yeah, like, you know, they're just continually stacking no matter what the price is. So the data definitely backs up what you're saying. To move on to whale balances. So as we just talked about, supply side looks great, still lackluster of demand. This is actually one of the, one of the few metrics that I think can kind of give you a hint as to what's going on with demand. So this is looking at whale balances. And so what we're doing is we're looking at all the entities with over 1,000 BTC. It's an entity being a forensically clustered address based on some of the data science that the Glassnode team has done.

• 13:36Speaker 02

  And so we're taking all those entities with over a thousand BTC and then we're filtering out all the known entities on the blockchain. So we're filtering out exchanges, which in my opinion is the most important to filter out because let's say you haven't filtered out for exchanges. You know, you could see what's perceived as a whale inflow when it's actually coins moving on to an exchange to be sold, which of course is, you know, perceived to be a bullish thing by you, but is actually bearish. Or conversely, you could see what appears to be whales distributing when meanwhile, it's actually coins moving off exchanges. Right. And that's actually a bullish thing that you're perceiving to be bearish. So it's very important to filter out those exchanges when you're, when you're looking at this. And then as well, we filter out grayscale, the purpose ETF, QBTC.

• 14:19Speaker 02

  And then what we get left with is just the raw balance of whales. And so as you can see, if I was to, you know, zoom a little further out, you would see throughout all of late 2020 up until early 2021. We had this really aggressive move up in whales. It was the largest period of whale accumulation in Bitcoin's history. Most of the, the most amount of new whales stepping into the market in Bitcoin's history as well. After about February to March, they started distributing their coins all the way back down into about August. And we had this big pop up off the lows. And then they did start to accumulate all the way up until kind of late September, early October. And since that time period, so that's almost six months ago, they've just continually distributed their coins.

• 15:01Speaker 02

  And so that's something that, you know, probably would have wanted to be paying attention to. Admittedly, I just hadn't been watching this metric. I kind of wish I was in retrospect, and of course, you know, hindsight shows 2020, but you know, since September, whales were distributing. And then recently, what we've seen though, is over the last week or two, we've seen them actually start to accumulate again. So if you look on the right hand side, you'll see that little blue circle that I've highlighted. You see this big pop up in whales holdings. So this is very interesting to me. We're kind of breaking out of this downtrend of distribution. So, you know, I think this is, this is one of the few on-chain metrics that you can actually.

• 15:40Speaker 02

  Look at aside from perhaps like transactional activity to give you a hint as to what's going on on the demand side. I think, you know, if you had been watching this for the last few months and seeing this decline, obviously showing you that whales have been distributing, uh, but you know, over the last week or two, starting to see their, uh, you know, holdings tick up. Uh, I think that's very interesting, something you want to see kind of continue over the next week or two to see if we are starting to finally see some demand from larger players begin to step in.

• 16:07Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, it's absolutely fascinating to watch this play out. Um, you, you've got another chart here, the Bitcoin relative transfer value breakdown by size. Uh, I'm not familiar with this one, so take me to school, my friend. What, uh, what are you looking at here?

• 16:20Speaker 02

  Sure. So all we're doing here is we're just taking all the transactions on the blockchain and then we're just breaking them down by size. So we're saying where is transactional volume and where's transfer volume being dominated, uh, based on the size of the transactions. And so what we see is since 2020, we've kind of just been this like perpetual uptrend. Um, of course, you know, a bit of fluctuation here and there, uh, but generally just been trending up since that time period. A lot of that has to do with institutions being in the market as well as transaction batching, uh, being done by exchanges. And so, you know, again, this is really just showing you that kind of the, the big boys are running the show, if you will. Uh, you know, larger market participants are really kind of dominating the transfer volume. And then if you go to the next chart, you'll see the same chart, but it's looking at, um,

• 17:05Speaker 02

  the, the one we just looked at is looking at, uh, transfer volume above $10 million. This one that we're now looking at is transfer volume below $100,000. So these are the smaller market participants, uh, generally retail. And what you'll see is that they've taken up a smaller and smaller portion of volume over the last, call it years. So, uh, I think this also kind of shows you that there's a, a decrease in kind of retail, you know, speculative euphoria in the market as well. Uh, and that generally, you know, the bigger market participants, you know, the larger transaction. Volume is dominating the market right now.

• 17:38Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then when we go ahead and we look kind of at the opposite end, when we look at these transfer sizes less than 100K, that's basically just showing us that it is really the the large players, not the small players.

• 17:50Speaker 02

  Exactly.

• 17:51Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, so it's it's pretty interesting when you kind of look at it's impossible to deny this data, right? In terms of what we're seeing. All right, let's um, let's talk a little bit about the flows into Bitcoin. I know you've got kind of this like almost like volume or flow chart here. What does this show us?

• 18:08Speaker 02

  Right. So as we talked about, I think part of what's been driving the lackluster of demand for BTC over the last couple of months, there's just been general risk off behavior driven by macro uncertainty, whether that's, you know, what's going on with Russia or quantitative tightening fears. And so like, this is looking at the correlation of BTC to the NASDAQ. And so what you'll see is generally this is kind of spurious, right? We go through these heavy periods of correlation. We draw down these kind of like brief decoupling periods, but over call it the last month or two, we've had a really strong correlation. As you could see, kind of on the on the right hand side, this is kind of the largest block of of correlation in recent history.

• 18:48Speaker 02

  And so again, I I think I don't want to sound like a broken record here, but for a lot of the reasons we just mentioned. But to break this correlation, I think you need two things. So you either need a traditional finance rebound, particularly the NASDAQ, which would allow Bitcoin to just trade as a higher beta asset. You know, whenever you're in risk on mode, you can start to see these correlations break down as people go out further on the risk curve. So that's one way. If you start to see a lot of the macro uncertainty subside and start to see a rebound in risk on assets, particularly, you know, tech stocks and just, you know, overall, just the QQQ. And the second way would be if we had some type of catalyst that would draw in idiosyncratic flows.

• 19:31Speaker 02

  So idiosyncratic is just like a fancy word I like to use to sound smart, which just means unique flows to Bitcoin. Right? And so what I'm saying here is that, you know, unless we have some type of macro rebound, you're going to need some type of event that forces that correlation to break down to the upside ideally. Could potentially be, you know, to the downside if you have terrible news, but I'm saying. Ideally, you know, to the upside, obviously. Um, so we're looking at, you know, several different potential catalysts. We've got things like Russia being rumored to looking, you know, Russia potentially looking to mine Bitcoin. Intel getting involved in mining chips, Google looking to store crypto when in their partnership with Coinbase. Apple and Microsoft talking about the metaverse, El Salvador, their bond raise coming up.

• 20:17Speaker 02

  Which I think that'll get really interesting if it's oversubscribed to. As well as rumors of other Latin American countries following El Salvador. Making their current, making their legal currency Bitcoin. So. I think, you know, I, I, it's, it's a bit foolish to just blindly bet that a catalyst is going to occur. But I do think, you know, again, always trying to speak in if then format. If one of these events occur, then I would expect. The kind of correlation, the really heavy correlation that we've had. To risk on equities to kind of break down. And so that's just something to kind of keep in the back of your mind. If we do see some, you know, one of these kind of catalysts take place. I would expect some type of idiosyncratic flows to then come into Bitcoin.

• 21:01Speaker 02

  Uh, but for now, because we haven't had anything like, you know, that's, that's uh, causing those unique flows into BTC. We are just kind of trading at the hip of equities for the time being.

• 21:12Anthony Pompliano?

  And then let's talk lastly about on-chain cost basis. This is something that I've been paying a lot of attention to. Uh, and you've kind of gone back and charted, you know, what's happened over the last couple of years here. What, what is this telling you?

• 21:23Speaker 02

  Yeah. So, I mean, to back up for one second, I think like. There's two types of buyers in the market. So we have momentum buyers and we have value buyers for BTC. Of course, the difficult part is defining what is momentum? And what is value? Because that's kind of subjective because Bitcoin doesn't have cash flows. It's just, you know, a very subjective thing based on different strategies that you like to implement to determine these things. From a momentum perspective, I think this is where short-term holder cost basis steps in. Because if we look historically, this has kind of been the area that served as either, you know, bull market support or bear market resistance. And why is this? You know, the kind of. Psychology behind this is that whenever we're above short-term holder cost basis,

• 22:08Speaker 02

  so the red line is showing you that we're the shorter-term market participants or the newer market participants, because these are entities that have been on the blockchain for less than 155 days, they're in profit when we're above the line, right? And so in bull markets, we come back and retest that line. Shorter, you know, newer market participants don't want to sell at a loss. So people stop selling when we retest that and we continue up. When we flip below, when we come into a bear market, once we're below, they're now in a state of loss, right? So they're now underwater in aggregate, not every single market participant, but in aggregate, they're underwater. And so whenever we have this underside retest of that level of the short-term holder realized price, or in other words, short-term holder cost basis,

• 22:54Speaker 02

  that's, you know, it's it's a opportunity for those market participants to exit at break even. Okay. And so as we as we head down into the bear, you see these continuous rejections of that line until finally we break above that, right? And then what you want to see is breaking above and then retesting that line as support. So as you'll see throughout 2017, this kind of served as support until we broke below, then it became heavy resistance until we finally broke above at the very bottom of the bear market. Heading into like the 2020 area, you'll see once we retested this in September of 2020, then we, you know, was off to the races. Once we broke below in May, we would have been cautious until breaking back above and retesting in

• 23:36Speaker 02

  September. Recently, we've broken below. And so this is something we talked about for a long time, for months. We were talking about at the time, this was at the 53K area, talked about how we were gonna becoming cautious once we broke below this area, because historically, that's signaled a good time to be cautious. We had this failed underside retest of short-term short-term holder cost basis. And so for now, you do want to kind of maintain a bearish bias from a high timeframe momentum perspective. And so again, this is for momentum-based market participants. The short-term holder cost basis is dynamic based on, you know, the the, you know, the movement of of market participants on chain. So it's now down from 53K and currently sits at

• 24:18Speaker 02

  about $41,500. And so this is kind of the area from an on-chain perspective that I would be looking at to get to to be reclaimed, to say from a from a, you know, broader standpoint that Have reclaimed momentum for the market. So with that in mind, that's that's for momentum based market participants. When we talk about value based market participants. I think the kind of low thirties, upper twenties area is like a nice value area for BTC. So this is partially based on price action and price levels. It's also based on several kind of macro bottom indicators. So like, for example, the 200 week moving average. Realized price and not short term only realized price, just the aggregated realized price.

• 25:03Speaker 02

  As well as delta price. And these are all kind of in the mid twenties. And so the way I'm kind of approaching this personally, and of course, not financial advice. Is that, you know, calling the exact bottom, I think is a bit of a fool's game.

• 25:18Speaker 02

  And, you know, sometimes I think it's as simple as just saying, where does the asymmetry lie? Right. And so I think at this time, with a lot of those kind of macro bottom indicators in the low to upper twenties. And we're sitting, you know, hanging out in the mid to low thirties. I tend to think that the low thirties to upper twenties is a value area for BTC. And the asymmetry, meaning the potential, you know, upside versus downside. Is not skewed to the downside. I think at this time, the asymmetry is skewed to the upside, meaning that the potential downside is is lower than your potential upside. And you'll call it a six to 12 plus month timeframe. And so the way I'm personally approaching this in my personal portfolio. Is that I'm not trying to get too cute with this. I'm just kind of averaging in.

• 26:03Speaker 02

  In the kind of low thirties, upper, you know, if we do see the upper twenties area. You know, I'm kind of just averaging in over the next couple of weeks or months, depending on how long it takes to kind of bottom out. But I'm not in any type of rush to just lump sum and try to call the the Pico bottom. I think that's kind of a a fool's game and anyone telling you. But they know exactly where the bottom is, is either drinking their own Kool-Aid or they're. Or they're just kind of foolish and for lack of of a better word. So I I do tend to think that. These kind of levels or you know, in, in a, with a, with a kind of multi-month, several year time horizon is extreme value for BTC and the kind of asymmetry is not skewed to the downside at this time.

• 26:46Speaker 02

  And of course, this doesn't rule out some type of, you know, capitulation WIC. If you see some type of, you know, one-off macro event or some type of run for dollars like we saw in March. I don't think you should be betting on that. I, I don't think that it's, it's, you know, very wise just to say, I'm going to hold off on averaging into BTC whatsoever. If you are a value buyer, because you're betting on some type of macro breakdown. Maybe if you're a momentum buyer, you step out of the market and say, until we reclaim, you know, whether it's from a non-chain perspective, that short-term holder cost basis, or if you're a technical person, some type of moving average or whatever, price level that deems you to feel like we've reclaimed that

• 27:27Speaker 02

  kind of high tongue for momentum, that's different. But from a value, from a, you know, a value buyer perspective, I, I don't think it's wise to just be sitting around waiting for some type of macro capitulation event that may not come. But with that in mind, it is possible. So I also don't think that it's wise to just try to lump some and time the bottom. And so that's kind of the reasoning behind why I'm personally just kind of averaging into these levels.

• 27:51Anthony Pompliano?

  My friend, you are absolutely killed it here. My last question for you, and then we got to run is sentiment. How are you thinking about kind of the Twitter sentiment in relationship to the actual kind of underlying fundamentals and data that you're watching here? It seems like people were really scared and fearful, and now maybe that's loosening up a little bit.

• 28:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, um, yeah, it definitely seems like there's a lot of kind of anxiety amongst, I don't know, some of the folks on Twitter. I try not to honestly pay too much attention to that because if you look at like the fear and greed index, it's been in, you know, heavy fear for two months now. So if you know, if you're kind of using that as like a buyer-sell indicator, I don't really find that super actionable, right? Because in a bear market, you know, we're in heavy fear for like a year or two. And then a bull market, you're in heavy greed for months and months and months. So I generally, I think, um, I think using something like a fear and greed index is not entirely useful, but it does seem like amongst, you know, some of the folks, at least on Twitter,

• 28:51Speaker 02

  that the sentiment does kind of lean pretty bearish. And people do kind of feel like we're entering some type of, you know, macro bear market. So I don't know. It's something just to add and to consider, but I don't think that sentiment in its entirety is necessarily actionable because of kind of what I just talked about.

• 29:12Anthony Pompliano?

  I think you're on to it, man. I think you, you're ahead of the game right now. How we, how we looking on followers? We got a million yet? Closing in? Fifty, oh, 600K though.

• 29:24Speaker 02

  You know, I've been surprised with the follower growth because, you know, you'd think whenever the market is down, that there wouldn't be new market entrants coming in. But I do find it really interesting, and I'm sure you probably noticed this as well with your own follower count, that it's continuing to see somewhat of a steady increase. Actually, I had more followers this month than last month, which not saying that necessarily in like a braggy way. I just do find that interesting because Bitcoin is down pretty substantially on a kind of month to month basis. So it is showing you that there's, you know, new market participants that are coming in and, and people are continually interested in Bitcoin no matter the price. I do find that something interesting to know.

• 30:05Anthony Pompliano?

  You're killing it, my friend. I appreciate you coming on every single week or every other week, whenever you can make time for us. I always like to say that Will Clemente, he brings the noise. He just got, he's got so much heat that he brings in terms of the data analysts. You're getting better and better. So I appreciate you, you coming on, my friend.

• 30:23Speaker 02

  Thanks so much. You guys take it easy. Appreciate you.

• 30:25Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, later, buddy. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.