Iran REJECTS Trump's 15 Point Peace Plan | PBD #765

Patrick Bet-David, Tom Ellsworth, Brandon Aceto, and Barry Habib break down Iran rejecting Trump’s 15-point peace plan, a $580 million oil trade ahead of Trump’s ultimatum extension, Dave Ramsey warning Gen Z about corporate America, and Federal Reserve rate hike signals impacting inflation, interest rates, and the U. S. economy. -------- 👍 LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE! Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4kSVkso⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4kSVkso Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP 👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4lzQph2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj⁠⁠⁠ https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj 💬 TEXT US: TEXT “PODCAST” TO 310-340-1132 TO GET THE LATEST UPDATES IN REAL-TIME! ABOUT US: Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:13Speaker 00

  My handshake is better than anything I ever signed, right here.

• 0:17Patrick Bet-David?

  You are a one of one? My son's right there.

• 0:19Speaker 02

  I don't think I've ever said this before.

• 0:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so we got Business Podcast Wednesday. We have the great Barry Habib here with us, as well as Brandon Aceto and Tom Ellsworth. The goal is to get smarter, make better decisions. So a lot going on. I mean, obviously, we have to still continue talking about the stuff that's going on with Iran. I think there's a 15-point plan to end the war with Iran. As Trump says, the regime has agreed to scrap nuclear program. What does that really mean? Iran's come back and made their request. They want reparations for the damages that is taking place. We'll go back and forth. We'll address that. And then, at the same time, just this morning, could have been last night, but I think it's this morning, the age to join the military, that was always 34, 35, because I'll never forget being in boot camp, and a 34-year-old guy was with us. We were 18, 19 years old.

• 1:10Patrick Bet-David?

  We're like, what are you doing? He says, I got out, did eight years, want to come back in to finish my 20 years? I said, you're 33, 34. Maximum age at the time was 34, 35. Now, as of today, for some of you that are open and interested, Vinny's outside right now trying to get a job, just so you guys know that. He's concerned. He's worried that AI is going to replace his character on the podcast. And he says, look, I got to go back into the military. The age is officially from 35 to 42 years old. I wonder why. Maybe they want you, they need you. We'll talk about it. Vinny's requesting if they can raise it to 48. They're not listening to him. But we'll see what's going to happen there. Aside from that, a few other things that's going on. Wall Street Journal comes out with a story with everything that's being talked about. You would think they're talking about

• 1:55Patrick Bet-David?

  lowering the rates, right? But no. Wall Street Journal comes out with a story talking about a Fed likely hikes next, not cuts. Wall Street Journal, just a couple of days ago, they're talking about that. What do you mean rate hikes? Well, maybe they're going to be raising the...

• 2:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Rates when it comes down to no masks for ICE agents for airports. A lot of videos going around showing the fact that ICE agents are being polite, giving water, taking care of people, being respectful to them. So there's a lot of good messaging right now going with ICE agents. Going out there working while TSA agents are not working. I don't know what the number is. Over 400 TSA agents have, TSA employees have full on quit since the shutdown. Absence hit 12% of the 30,000 workforce. That's 3450 as of Sunday. If you're traveling, it's still not a good sign. And a lot, some places are addressing it, some places are not. A hidden $580 million oil bid. I don't even know if it's hidden because we know about it.

• 2:55Patrick Bet-David?

  But it was a $580 million oil bid just before Trump's Iran announcement. 6200 contracts. Can you imagine quickly? You put in the money, boom, you made a ton of money right afterwards. A lot of people, 6200 people were parked. Who knew? How did they know? What did they know? We'll address that. Michael Burry's got some thoughts that we'll get into on the SNP, his concern. There's a story that came out with a SeatGeek job listing. Very weird. Who posts a job listing? And the way they describe it, advertising up to 25, they're paying $121,000,

• 3:32Patrick Bet-David?

  $275,000 analytics engineer and advertising up to $25,000 in gender affirming care benefits. Is that a recruiting tactic today? Okay, by the way, we're about to show our recruiting video. We don't offer that. If you're, we're thinking whether we, we don't offer that here. If you're going to do something like that, you can go pay it for yourself. It's not our, you're an adult, you can do it. But can you imagine it's gotten to a point that some companies are so woke that they're thinking by doing that, they're going to get people that are going to come work for, work for them. Maybe it's going to work. Maybe we're the naive ones and they're the ones that are right. Obviously we know the answer to that question. New York City homeowners age, average age of New York City homeowner hits record high.

• 4:16Patrick Bet-David?

  You know how old the average age is today? 58.8 years old, 59 years old homeowners.

• 4:25Patrick Bet-David?

  And we have a gas prices story we'll get into just this morning. I think oil is at 88. The Dow is up 2 points. Everything is up about 2 points. S and P, NASDAQ, everything's up too. We'll address those stories as well. Aside from that, we got more things going on with Iran that we gotta talk about. Uh, there's a story that came out by Barron's Tax the Rich or Kill Income Taxes. States are divided on what to do. Flat out divided on what to do with numbers. We'll talk about that with California, Washington, Florida, Texas, and then Russia, largest oil port crippled and huge Ukrainian drone attack.

• 5:04Patrick Bet-David?

  This came out of nowhere. Nobody was like, wait a minute, while this is going on with Iran, Ukraine is attacking Russia? Yes, why? Well, Ukraine is trying to say, hey, man, you're not gonna sell that oil. We have to put some pain in you because while they're negotiating their terms, we haven't finalized our terms. What do you want to do? So can you imagine Zelensky's position? This is a great time to make some noise. While everybody is looking at the other side, let's come and do this. Dave Ramsey warns, "The young hopeful locked out of housing market. Corporate America has screwed you." That's Dave Ramsey. We'll address that. Anthropic says Claude, lots of news this week with Claude. I don't know if you've been following it. A lot of news this week with Claude.

• 5:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Anthropic says Claude can now use your computer to finish tasks for you in AI agent push. I'll have Tom share with you guys what Claude is doing if he's comfortable with it. I'm sure he is. Uh, he'll share some of those stories because there's a girl we keep hearing about Courtney, and we're kind of hearing about Courtney a little too much lately. None of us have met her. She's a secret. We can't meet her, but she's emailing all of us. And so this Courtney girl, wherever you are, please reveal yourself. Everyone's trying to know who you are, and Vinnie wants to know if you're single. We don't know that yet. So, with that being said, before we get into the stories, couple things. Number one,

• 6:22Patrick Bet-David?

  51% of you consume the content here on the podcast who have not subscribed. We'd like to take PBD Podcast to 5 million subscribers. We're at 2.9 million right now. We're going to have something we'll announce here soon. And we'd like to take Valuetainment to 10 million subscribers. We're currently at 7.1, 7.16 million subscribers. So if you haven't yet, if you enjoy what we do, you support the conversations that we have, click on that subscribe button and helps us out with the algorithms. And last but not least, if you're a full stack developer, if you're a good editor, if you're somebody with an MBA, if you're somebody that's been in the consulting side, we're hiring aggressively right now. We just got the floor plan for how high we can go here.

• 7:05Patrick Bet-David?

  We're planning on building a building and we got some good news on how high we can go on the building that we're going to build here to house a couple thousand employees. We're hiring aggressively. Rob, if you want to play the clip for some people that just think this is a podcast, there's a lot of stuff that's going on here, go for it and play this clip. Many times when people think about Valuetainment, all they think about is a podcast, but it's a lot more than that. It's nine companies working together on an 11 acre campus. If I was to give you a virtual tour here, you'll see the HR department hiring, talent acquisition. We have full stack developers that are working on Manac and higher metrics. We have a full-fledged events team that puts together events with thousands of people. We have a merch department designing the latest product. We just launched the FLB shoes made in Italy. We have a marketing department.

• 7:47Patrick Bet-David?

  And if you go to the complete opposite side of the building, 50, 60 people making calls, working for Bedivin Consulting, sales setters. And then on the complete opposite side of the campus, there's a full-on production company with editors, shooters, creating content, doing podcasts. Then you can drive down a couple miles and go to our private boardroom cigar lounge with members only. Regardless of what it is, working at Valuetainment, every day is a surprise. You could be walking into work and right next to you is a governor, is a billionaire, is an athlete. We are hiring aggressively, but Valuetainment isn't for everybody. For the right person, this could be the last company you ever work for. So if you're watching this and you want to learn more, go to vt.com/careers and apply now.

• 8:31Patrick Bet-David?

  Again, go to vt.com/careers and if you know somebody that's looking for a job, fully qualified or has a job, but they're not happy, fully talented, share this video with them as well. With that being said, let's get right into it. First thing I want to talk about is story that comes out, US sends 15-point plan to end war with Iran as Trump says the regime.

• 8:52Patrick Bet-David?

  has agreed to scrap the nuclear program. Okay, so let's read through this. The U.S. has sent a 15-point plan and ceasefire proposal to end the war in the Middle East, and President Trump claims the regime has already agreed to a critical part of the peace, no nuclear weapons. They've agreed, Trump said Tuesday, of his biggest demand. Rob, is this the president speaking? Yes, sir. Go for it.

• 9:14Speaker 03

  What do you think was the turning point to make you want to pursue a ceasefire? A few days ago, you know, you said you wanted to continue bombing Iran. Now you want to pursue peace talks. Was there something that happened?

• 9:24Speaker 04

  The fact that they're talking to us, and they're talking since. And remember, it all starts with they cannot have a nuclear weapon. Just, you know, I said yesterday, what are they said, what are the top 10? I said, well, number one, two, and three is they can't have a nuclear weapon. And they're not going to have a nuclear weapon, and we're talking about that. And I don't want to say in advance, but they've agreed they will never have a nuclear weapon. They've agreed to that.

• 9:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so that's what the president's saying. This is the 15 points. Iran must dismantle existing nuclear program. That's number one. Number two, Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons. It's the same as number one, but it's like, we're never going to have it. Number three, no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory. They're all the same thing, but again, that's number three. Number four, Iran must hand its stockpile of enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency. 444, same topic. Five, the Natanz, Esfahan, and Firdan nuclear facilities must be dismantled. What does that mean? The IAEA must be granted full access to Iran's nuclear facilities. Great. Iran must abandon its regional proxy paradigm. Eight, Iran must seize the funding directing and arming its proxies.

• 10:35Patrick Bet-David?

  Nine, the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. 10, Iran's missile program must be limited in both range and quantity. 11, Iran must limit its use of missiles to self-defense. In return, Iran would benefit from. 12, the end of sanctions imposed by the international community. The U.S. assistance to advance its civilian nuclear program. And US snapback mechanism allowing for automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply would be removed. Now, this is what they said. Rob, do we have anything of them responding to this? Because I think that was also what the Iranian Foreign Minister responded to this as well. Tom, I'll come to you first and then Barry next. Tom, your thoughts on this?

• 11:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, there's basically four points to it. When you see 15, Pat was very correctly pointing out in those top six. So you have A, nuclear program, uranium, manufacturing facilities, that's A. B, Hamas and Hezbollah, you must stop funding them. C, you can build missiles, but only little ones to defend your borders. And then D, the sanctions go away. So it's nukes, Hamas, missiles, and sanctions. And that's a 15-point which you get down to it. Now, you know, what's, what's interesting about this is, you know, they are so dedicated to it. They tried previously to get them to agree a nuclear program, they didn't do it.

• 11:58Tom Ellsworth?

  You know, this, when I, when I see this, I hope we get some progress on it. I hope there's a negotiation. I hope that all the destruction of so much infrastructure and things that we've gone after is sending a message that gets them over the line. But this is only part of it for me. The other part for me here is who are they negotiating with? Who's going to sign the paper? The current regime. What happened about a new regime that would give, bring the people back to the glory of Iran and all the people that were protesting in the streets and the ones that were slaughtered for something? Pat, who signs this? If the current regime signs it, okay, so what? The war's over, but now don't we go back to the people?

• 12:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, I mean, the question that becomes, so it's neither a regime change or a regime collapse. So which one was it?

• 12:45Tom Ellsworth?

  Correct. But now, the current regime is going to sign a document.

• 12:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Of course. So guess what?

• 12:50Tom Ellsworth?

  You're in charge.

• 12:51Patrick Bet-David?

  What, what was accomplished?

• 12:53Tom Ellsworth?

  For the people that are now in the, that, that, first of all, what do you think the IRGC does minutes after this gets signed if it's the same regime?

• 13:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, they're gonna go back.

• 13:02Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, it's, we have pride month, they're gonna have head bashing month. You know, it's terrible.

• 13:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, that won't be changing, that won't be changing. Barry, where are you at with this?

• 13:10Speaker 06

  So, look, you're right, Tom, clearly, but what we would accomplish is the three important things. If we could stop the money flow to Hamas, Hezbollah, you know, Houthis, if we could do that, that's a very big plus for us. If we can keep oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz without it being a future threat, that it will be shut down, that's great for us, that's great for worldwide economy, and I think the stock market's kind of reacting to that this morning. And of course, the several points on the no nukes that you mentioned, the thing I worry about is compliance, because we've heard this from them before. So, I don't know how they would get around having Iran potentially do something that,

• 13:55Speaker 06

  that's sneaky, you know? If, if that could be contemplated, then I think that the give on the side of the US is saying, hey, in lieu of boots on the ground, in lieu of loss of life, in lieu of further economic harm, we have to leave the current regime in place. I think that that's, you know, when you sum it up, and Tom did an excellent job as well, I think when you sum it up, that's the give that we, that is being thought of to say, okay, if we can accomplish these things, that's pretty good progress, we don't get everything, but it's pretty good progress.

• 14:27Tom Ellsworth?

  Brandon?

• 14:28Speaker 07

  Yeah, I mean, at this point, I think if we make peace with them with this current, whatever you call it, regime right now, whoever's leading things, I think that's a worse situation than before. And I mean, if we do happen to make a peace deal with them, the most important thing is that they actually agree to let us inspect their facilities thoroughly, because... If you guys remember the Iran nuclear deal that Obama made, it was essentially we give Iran a ton of money, billions and billions of dollars, in return for them promising not to develop nuclear weapons. I think they were supposed to cap uranium enrichment at like 3%, but they never let us inspect it. So, they were doing all the things they weren't supposed to do. We weren't holding them accountable for the inspections. So that's why they have things like the missiles that we, that go much farther than we thought. I don't necessarily think that they have enriched uranium to the degree that people

• 15:11Speaker 07

  are saying on using it as the grounds to do this invasion, but they could, they could have all kinds of things we don't know about because we didn't hold them accountable with the inspections. So, I think at this point with how far we've gone, I think you go harder and go more savage with them and, you know, just get it over with because it's gonna be a worse situation. Like, why are we delaying the inevitable? They're not gonna stop giving money to the terrorist groups. They're not gonna stop trying to have a nuclear weapon because look how much we leave North Korea alone. Now, they have nuclear weapons. So they're trying to follow that model.

• 15:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, and, and by the way, Rob, if you want to play this clip, because the Foreign Minister, Aragchi, said a completely different thing. This is just a couple days ago. Go ahead, Rob.

• 15:44Speaker 08

  I don't think the question of talking with Americans or negotiation with Americans once again would be on the table because, you know, we have a very, you know, bitter experience of talking with Americans. We negotiated with them last year in, in last June, and they attacked us in the middle of negotiations. And again this year, they tried to convince us that this time is different. They promised us that they don't have any intention to attack us. So, and they wanted to resolve Iran's nuclear question peacefully and to find a negotiated solution, and we finally accepted. But again, after three

• 16:25Speaker 08

  rounds of negotiation, and after the, the American team in the negotiation, you know, said itself that we made a big progress, still they decided to attack us. So I don't think, you know, talking with Americans anymore would be, you know, on our agenda anymore.

• 16:46Patrick Bet-David?

  By the way, his ask, number one, full lifting of sanctions, which is one of the things they're talking about. That's their number one priority, removal of US military presence in the region, meaning closure of US bases in the Gulf. It's what their ask is.

• 17:00Speaker 06

  No way.

• 17:01Patrick Bet-David?

  I mean, who's gonna be doing that? Then reparations, which is, yeah, you gotta pay for all this stuff that happened. Control of revenue from Strait of Hormuz, ability to change or control shipping flow, keep the missile program, right to nuclear capability, security guarantees that US won't attack again, respect recognition of regional power, acknowledge our role in the Middle East. That's what they're asking.

• 17:22Speaker 06

  Yeah, they're not gonna, they're not gonna get that. And here's the other side of it, is that, you know, by the time this five-day pause in attacks ends, US will be in a position militarily because troops would have arrived there. So, you know, Trump is always, it was very good at kind of talking one way or having one way, and then using the element of surprise to our advantage. So, I wonder, is that another repeat of that? If we are, you know, positioning ourselves, buying some time for that, and then, as Brandon said, maybe going in a little bit more, you know, to use his word, a little bit more savage. I mean, we don't, we really don't know, but that is a possibility.

• 18:00Patrick Bet-David?

  So, Rob, do you have the clip of what MBS, which clip is this here? Because I want to play what MBS said.

• 18:05Speaker 09

  Uh, this is one of the Iranian officials listing their demands for a ceasefire.

• 18:09Patrick Bet-David?

  This is when?

• 18:10Speaker 09

  This was earlier this week, I believe, Monday or Tuesday.

• 18:13Patrick Bet-David?

  Go ahead.

• 18:14Speaker 02

  Until all our damages are recovered, until all economic sanctions are lifted, and until we obtain an international legal guarantee against Iran's, against America's interference in Iran's affairs, this war will continue. And I'll explain why such a decision has been made by our nation, our leader, and our armed forces. I will state in the interview that whether our conflict with America is just a 12-day war and a Ramadan war, or rather, a 47-year saga that we must bring to an end right here and now.

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• 21:17Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so that's that on what he's saying. Similar request to what I just read. Okay, MBS comes out, I have the comments here where he says, "He fears if Trump retreats now Saudi Arabia and the rest of the region will be left to face angry Iran." I think he told us to, is this the interview wrap or?

• 21:36Speaker 09

  I'm looking for the clip. I found this clip, I'm not sure if it's him though.

• 21:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, angry Iran, he told us to New York Times. Then yesterday, when the president is being interviewed, they asked the president, I don't know if you saw that clip, Rob. They're asking him, hey, I just texted it to you, Rob. I'm sorry, I texted it to myself. Reporter asks the president, "Is MBS encouraging you to do certain things related to Iran?" And here's what the president had to say, go forward.

• 22:03Speaker 04

  Saudi Arabia, what do you hear with Saudi Arabia?

• 22:05Speaker 15

  Just hearing that he's been talking and that he has been encouraging you to do certain things related to Iran. Can you share?

• 22:11Speaker 04

  He's a warrior. He does, yeah, he's a warrior. He's fighting with us, by the way. Saudi Arabia has been excellent and UAE, excellent. And I will tell you, Qatar, incredible. Saudi Arabia, what do you hear with Saudi?

• 22:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so there you have it. So he's responded the way he is. And Rob, I don't know if there was an interview with him or not, or just like a face-to-face interview. Barry, you make a good point because, you know, when you think about this, is he putting out the 15 points to give a little bit more time? Because he got an update that USS Triple E needs four more days, needs five more days. Because I got a quote here, very weird quote. And I don't know if I like this quote, but let me read this quote to you from Netanyahu. Here's what Netanyahu just said, okay? Look what his quote is. Netanyahu just said, when asked, "How long do you think this is gonna last?" He told Fox News, "May take some time, but it's not going to take years."

• 23:08Patrick Bet-David?

  He vowed to keep striking Iran's enemies and help topple its regime after missile attacks he called Iran's behavior threatening the entire world. So... There's two different problems. There's the Israel problem, there's the world problem, there's the America problem. The Israel problem is what? You just attacked these guys, guess what, Tom, with the Israel problem. They are furious with you, right now. They're not happy with you, with what you have going on. And Israel has to sit there and say, dude, if we don't finish this off right now, you think they're gonna let us go? They're gonna come back and take us out? Then you have a world problem. Did this even make the world a safer place? Did it make Gulf states feel better? Did it make them feel

• 23:51Patrick Bet-David?

  more comfortable? Are Europeans and NATO allies feeling more comfortable about this? Then the last one is what? Trump the president. How is this sitting in America? How is America reacting to this? Is America sitting there because we just had a Democrat that won in Palm Beach, is it Palm Beach Emily, I don't know what her last name is?

• 24:12Tom Ellsworth?

  Emily Gregory.

• 24:13Patrick Bet-David?

  Emily Gregory, who just won in Palm Beach, and Democrat flips Florida State House district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago, okay? I mean, that's his house. So what are they saying? Tom, you made a good point earlier that, you know, we've talked about this for the last four or five years, if there's one thing we've been consistent about, don't worry about Democrats and Republicans. Who runs America's independents, okay? That's who runs American elections. If independents are kinda going like this, you know, it's like, hey, we're not fully with this, okay? Your base may be with you, this may be with you, but us independents, we're kinda leaning this way. Do you see that pattern kinda happening, Tom?

• 24:54Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, this is a flip of a district. This was a Republican, this was a GOP district. And now Gregory has won it, the special election. And so now you look at it and say, okay, what does this say?

• 25:05Patrick Bet-David?

  By a couple hundred votes, by the way. And the Boca guy won by like 13, 14 votes.

• 25:08Tom Ellsworth?

  Right, and then under audit, it went down to three votes and even one vote in Boca. So, yeah, that was debated back and forth, right on the edge of a knife. So what this says is that the independents in Florida are basically not saying, hey, overnight I became liberal, but what they're saying is, I don't like what's going on and this is the way I'm leaning. And it doesn't take much to move that, especially in the lavender districts. Miami, Broward County is blue. Miami is blue, but lighter blue than it's been. And it goes lavender certain times.

• 25:46Speaker 06

  I just wanted to say, the point that Pat made is very true, is that the America problem is, it has this issue in a, by the way, there's just a canary in the coal mine for the midterm elections as well. And that's the bigger issue that has to be contemplated. So the public opinion right now does not favor what's going on for the most part. Maybe they're looking at it short term. Maybe they're feeling what's going on with gasoline prices and they just don't have a distaste for it. I don't know if they're thinking about the bigger picture. Like you had mentioned, this is an opportunity for a bigger picture here. But it has to be balanced as far as, you know, what are you willing to sacrifice for? It's a really tough situation to be in.

• 26:28Speaker 07

  There's not really a narrative either. Like normally you have a narrative behind a war of like, oh, we have to do this because of this reason, like 9/11, it was revenge. Sometimes there's an imminent threat, but they don't really have like a narrative to capture that tolerance. So that's, I think that's part of it too.

• 26:42Tom Ellsworth?

  Got it. Rob, what is this?

• 26:44Speaker 09

  This is the president yesterday in the Oval Office, he talks about receiving a gift from Iran and it shows that the United States is now dealing with the right people in the regime.

• 26:54Tom Ellsworth?

  Let's hear it.

• 26:54Speaker 04

  Make a deal. They did something yesterday that was amazing, actually. They gave us a present. And the president arrived today. It was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money. And I'm not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant.

• 27:14Speaker 04

  Prize and they gave it to us and they said they were gonna give it so that meant one thing to me we're dealing with the right people. Is that nuclear related? No, it wasn't nuclear related. It was oil and gas related and it was a very nice thing they did but what it showed me is that we're dealing with the right people. Because you know, you don't know because the leadership was killed, all gone. Khomeini, all gone, as the expression goes, the past supreme leader. And then the new supreme leader was racked up, at a minimum racked up pretty good and everyone else was gone. And then many of the people in the third tier are gone. But we're dealing with a group of people that I think turned out and the president, the

• 27:59Speaker 04

  gift they made to us was very significant and they said they were gonna do it and it happened. And they're the only ones that could have done it.

• 28:07Patrick Bet-David?

  So much fog of war right now. Like you're hearing everything to sit there and say what is really going on? What is really being said? Is politics being played?

• 28:14Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 28:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Who's he talking to? Is it games? Is it not games? Or is the other side sitting there saying, what the hell is he talking about? We didn't give you anything. There's so much that's going on right now.

• 28:23Speaker 06

  But Pat, you think about it, wouldn't that be like the perfect scenario for the US if the regime in kind of like save face is there but those who are in charge of the regime are not as radical? I don't know if that's a possibility.

• 28:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, no way. No, no, no. Okay, so let me, let me ask you. How long, if you spent 10 years with Lucky Luciano, okay? How long do you need to spend every second of the day with Lucky to become like Lucky? How long? What do you think the timeline is? How long do you need to spend with the cartel from Mexico? Give me one of the heavyweights cartels of Mexico. Name any one of them.

• 29:08Speaker 06

  El Chapo.

• 29:09Patrick Bet-David?

  How long do I need to spend with El Chapo to become El Chapo? How long do I need to spend with, you know, the Manson's? How long do I need to spend with these guys to become them? What do you think that timeline is?

• 29:19Speaker 06

  Not long.

• 29:20Patrick Bet-David?

  What, what do you think that, honestly, it's a very good question because how long do you think that is? Three months, six months, 12 months, two years, three years?

• 29:25Speaker 06

  Not long.

• 29:26Speaker 04

  No, not long at all. We, we have a case study.

• 29:28Patrick Bet-David?

  What would you say? What would you say this?

• 29:30Tom Ellsworth?

  Like a thousand hours?

• 29:31Patrick Bet-David?

  You think it's a thousand hours?

• 29:32Speaker 04

  To be just like them? I, I, you know.

• 29:35Tom Ellsworth?

  If you're going into it and you're manipulable, you know, three weeks. I mean, we saw what happened in history when Patty Hearst was kidnapped. And then she basically went from, they say psychologically, she went from Stockholm syndrome, where you kind of start to lean with the feelings of your captors, to actually participating with the Symbionese Liberation Army in a bank hit.

• 30:05Patrick Bet-David?

  How long did that take? Effli Bailey was her lawyer, by the way.

• 30:08Tom Ellsworth?

  Right, it was, she was only 19 years old, she was very impressionable. It was only like 30 days.

• 30:13Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so here's the question. How many people have spent a thousand plus hours with the current regime, Khamenei, Pezeshkian, any of those guy to be true believers? How many?

• 30:26Speaker 06

  They all are, they all are. A couple hundred. They all have. The point I'm being is making is that if the president's saying we're talking to the right people, is there some sort of a shift or a tone change? I have no idea, I don't know who he's talking to.

• 30:37Tom Ellsworth?

  So, or is he softening us up that the regime's not going to change?

• 30:42Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I think, I think it is, I think, I think, look, if you, here's what the debate was. The first debate was, should we or should we not? Okay? So then the president says, Iranian people, we have your back. Okay? Then Iranian people are becoming bolder to go out there. So now the president's position is what? We have your back. That's a statement being made from the most powerful person in the world.

• 31:09Tom Ellsworth?

  And I'm warning you guys, don't hang anybody, don't execute.

• 31:13Patrick Bet-David?

  But they kept doing it, right? And they kept, and they're turning off the internet and we saw the numbers that came up, 31,000, 33,000, 70,000, and then they came back and said, no, no, we didn't kill 30,000 of our people, we only killed 3,117 of our own people. Rob, can you find that clip that where, that's the clip I was trying to find with Araguchi, where he said, we didn't kill 31,000 people, that's incorrect. We killed only 3,117 of our own people. As if like he's trying to say, look, we're nice people. So then from there... Everyone's now debating, don't do it, do it, do it, don't do it, do it, don't do it. We're not in, we're out. Right. And then who makes the decision? The president. Now we're in. Why are we going in? Regime collapse? Regime change? So now at the end, it's a nuclear?

• 31:58Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't know if I buy the fact that, so if now it ends and you claim the war is done, so the position for me would become like this. If, if you're talking to Bibi, hey, listen, here's what we're doing. What's that? We're disconnecting from here. And we're going out. Which I don't think is happening because we just got a report right now, two hours ago from an insider, a good friend, that Ranger said this Sunday, they're being deployed, you know, boots on the ground, going out this Sunday. Yeah. And they're calling their families, hey, this is what's going on. This is a Ranger, this is not somebody, so, listen, we are getting deployed and they're telling us here's where we're going. So, if he's talking like this that we're negotiating, but on the back end we're sending in,

• 32:43Patrick Bet-David?

  is he trying to deflect and confuse? Is that Trump's possibly, Trump's lineup doing things? Because if he doesn't and it comes back and it was a nuclear negotiation, and you just killed 50 of their family members, you now, you thought they were angry? You just increased the temperature of anger to a whole different level that the world, so, so then the people that were, you know, non-interventionists are gonna come out and say what? I told you you shouldn't have gone in the first place. So he's in, he's in a very interesting place. But again, I voted for him to, you know, in these situations to trust the decisions he's making. Let's see what they're gonna be doing, because no matter how much we talk about, guess what we don't have? We don't have all the information. We don't have all the intel. We don't know what they're gonna be doing. Rob, did you find that clip? I'm still looking.

• 33:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, it's a, it's a, it's a clip from two days ago, where he says that, so if you do find it, let me know. Uh, any thoughts?

• 33:35Speaker 07

  Yeah, it's a lot of smokescreens, but I think that's intentional. And I, I mean, if it's gonna follow the patterns of what he's done in the past, it's, something, he's just distraction, distraction, distraction, confuse people and then, boom, out of nowhere, something swift, fast and, uh, super effective happens where I, like, I don't think the Tripoli is gonna ultimately play a role. Whatever happens because everybody in the world's looking at or watching it saying, okay, it's three days away now. It's two days away now. It's one day away now. So I think something different is going to happen aside from that, maybe with Carg Island. But no, there's no way that we just make a deal with them now because that would be a worse situation than we went into in the first place. So it gets like a, you know, what goes from a extremist hostile regime to a pissed off extremist hostile regime, like, you know, with oil at

• 34:16Speaker 07

  a higher price and with all the infrastructure for oil halfway damaged. So, yeah, no, you have to go all the way now. No half measures. Tom?

• 34:24Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, I hate it because, you know, I liked that Maduro was in and out. I liked that I thought we had conducted a precision bombing up in the hills and had gotten to some nuclear facilities. And now there's a little part of me that's like, you know, here we go again, weapons of mass destruction, except that now we can see a missile going 4,000 miles. We see one and you can't have that, right? Now that you have a missile, it's like North Korea, when you have an ability to throw a missile this far, now you're just scared to death on what kind of a bomb can be on top of it. Now you have, now you have trouble. And so I'm with that. We got to finish this up. We have to do it. You know, we see the reports that the USS Tripoli is there. The USS Boxer, which we brought up

• 35:08Tom Ellsworth?

  on this podcast first, has left San Diego a week ago and is en route. It's still over a week out. And, you know, at the end of this, this ultimatum, you know, they got to get it together. I mean, the Iranians have a decision to make at the end of the ultimatum because Trump has got a set of arms and a set of tactics that are ready. The FT, Financial Times, ran a story talking about the ground invasion of Carg Island. Everybody is waking up to the fact that's, wait a minute, the Americans are not just talking back and forth here. This is not a debate like in the American Congress. The Americans are continuing to move their military assets around. And at the end of this saying, if we don't have

• 35:51Tom Ellsworth?

  an agreement in place, they're going to, they're going to take the next step. And the next step is going to be Carg Island. And by the way, the USS Tripoli is also part of what's called the

• 36:03Tom Ellsworth?

  Israeli called the Iron Dome, but it's an envelope of protection to all the minesweepers can clear the rest of the Gulf. So Trump has next bullets in this gun and he's serious. This is not a long discussion.

• 36:16Speaker 06

  If this is that, that, you know, we talked, I mentioned it earlier, he's very good at, you know, these distractions where similar to Midnight Hammer. If that is a similar situation, well, at least for a short period of time, it would probably impact oil prices higher. So it'd be a good time to go long oil. Also would probably hurt bond prices and for a period of time hurt stock prices. So that is something to contemplate, you know, if you're listening to this on, you know, from a business perspective, that's, uh, that's something to contemplate, but uh, clearly it's a much bigger picture here.

• 36:48Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah.

• 36:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Let's, let's go to that. Let's go to that on what happened yesterday and we got again, a lot of other stories here that we'll go through, but one of the stories that came out is 580 million dollar oil bet just before Trump's announcement, uh, within seconds before Trump's ceasefire post, traders placed extraordinary large oil future bets, roughly 5100 contracts on Brent, uh, WTI crude oil, 13 million barrels were traded between 1049 to 1050 GMT, uh, worth well over $500 million. Some reports cite 6200 contracts at 580 in that minute, immediately after Trump announced that 1105 GMT, which is like 15 minutes later, 13,000 plus contracts, 13 million barrels, exchanged hands in one minute, oil prices plunged on the news.

• 37:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Brent crude oil fell 15% from 112 to 99 and WTI fell from 99 to 86. By comparison, before the war, Brent traded at 300,000 contracts a day. Recently, daily volume have jumped to 1,000 contracts, uh, a day. Uh, Tom, thoughts on this story?

• 37:54Tom Ellsworth?

  I hate it. I absolutely hate this because the average American, the average investor has no access to this. Who knew what the president was going to say? A circle of people in Washington DC, they know what the president's gonna say. And these contracts are going out and basically after hour tradings that some people don't even have access to, and they put this out here, you know, this is why we need the insider trading rules that they won't pass, you know, I look at this and I come to this, I've said it before, it's like, we don't need term limits, we need jail. You know, it's like, it's like, if you're, there's the old joke, if a senator is elected, what should he get? And then the answer is 24 to 36, right? If you were elected. This disgusts me, Pat.

• 38:39Tom Ellsworth?

  Somebody made a bundle of money, knowing what the president was gonna say, and they went out and jumped on the contracts, a person or a group of people. This is horrible.

• 38:49Speaker 06

  Couldn't agree more with you. It is disgusting. And, you know, the increase in the amount of contracts in a situation where it's volatile, okay, but the timing of this certainly stinks. And I don't think it's somebody, I think, yeah, I think it's a lot of people, Tom, that made money on it, but this is just, it's not fair. It's not fair to folks like us who want to try and make investments based upon the information that's available, and this is clearly cheating.

• 39:12Speaker 07

  Yeah, I mean, even 9/11, the same thing happened, COVID, the same thing happened, you know, constantly with government contracts are getting given out from Google or Amazon, you know, they're front running that stuff too. So, I mean, there's just layers and layers and layers of unfair advantage for, you know, the like, the bigger investors or people in Congress, you know, they do like the payment for order flow thing where they could see a big line of retail investors come and trying to invest in something, and then they could cut the line and go in front of them before that comes in. So, yeah, there's a whole lot of nasty stuff with the way that stocks are investing as a structure against the average person.

• 39:44Speaker 06

  Let's remember, it kind of got swept under the rug, but you had three Fed members resign.

• 39:49Speaker 07

  The bonds.

• 39:50Speaker 06

  Exactly. You had Rosengren, Kaplan, and...

• 39:56Speaker 06

  May have been clouded. I don't want to speak incorrectly, but I know Rosengren and Kaplan both resigned because there was questionable trading that they had, so.

• 40:08Speaker 07

  Which is crazy.

• 40:09Speaker 06

  Yeah, and these are Fed members at the time.

• 40:10Speaker 07

  Yeah, they were the ones deploying those bonds.

• 40:12Speaker 06

  Yeah, yeah. Boston Fed President Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Kaplan, who now works at an investment bank, but.

• 40:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so was.

• 40:21Speaker 07

  Rosengren admitted it.

• 40:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Vice Chair Richard Clarida.

• 40:24Speaker 06

  That's what it was. It was clouded. So I was right. Okay.

• 40:27Patrick Bet-David?

  There you go, on them resigning. And by the way, this kind of leads to the story that came out from Wall Street Journal, Fed likely hikes next, not cuts. This is two days ago, market now see a rate hike more likely than a cut this year. The Atlanta Fed Probability Tracker shows Fed cut odds plummeting from 60% in February to 16% now, and Fed hikes odds going up from zero to 15% over the next three months. By late March, futures imply 85% chance of no move through June. Hike odds 15%, cut zero. Inflation remains

• 41:05Patrick Bet-David?

  above target with 2.4% year-over-year, well above the 2%. The core PCE was 2.8% in January, and one standard note, 100% basis point hike would add about $300 billion annually in interest on $30 trillion of U.S. debt, roughly 6% of federal budget. Barry, what is this story all about?

• 41:24Speaker 06

  So, a couple of things here. One, Fed Funds Futures contracts are extraordinarily volatile, so they are going to move. So you can't read too much into future months, but the most recent month tends to be more accurate. I don't think we're going to see rate hikes. I mean, let's never say never, but we know that nothing's going to happen until Kevin Worscht takes the reins and he'll preside over the June meeting, right? The one that we have, I think it's April 29th, we're not going to have any Fed action.

• 41:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, flat.

• 41:52Speaker 06

  Yeah, but Kevin Worscht is a really, really good person to have at the reins. Remember that Powell was an attorney, not a trained economist. Kevin Worscht has experience at the Fed. He certainly has the chops for this. And I believe that. He would like to cut if we have inflation under control, if this situation is under control, because you need it. The job market, we are not creating jobs. GDP is pretty soft when you think about it and you remove all of the noise. It's pretty soft GDP. It's trading just below 2%. When you look at the final demand component, which takes out things like inventory and government spend, and when we get the real numbers, which I like looking at is final demand, it's just under 2%. That's kind of anemic growth. And

• 42:36Speaker 06

  given the labor market conditions, the Fed should be in a position to cut. The fear is inflation. But inflation's overstated by, we've talked about this in past shelter, it's also probably going to get some relief as the tariffs come off this summer. And you should start to see that because they were instituted last summer. So unlike inflation, tariffs are one step up and then it flattens out and then it's a one-time price adjustment. So I think he'd like to cut. We don't want Kevin Warsh in there as a dove who looks to cut all the time. I wish Powell would have been, you know, hiking rates back in 2021 and 2022. So you want a Fed chair that doesn't look in the rearview mirror as they're driving down the freeway like we'd seen with Jerome Powell. You want somebody that

• 43:18Speaker 06

  could look through the front windshield and look through these. I thought Christopher Waller would have been a great Fed chair. If you hear him speak, he oftentimes talks about looking forward. I think Kevin Warsh will do the same thing. So I don't think we're going to see a hike. I think it's likely that we see one or two cuts by the end of the year. Tom?

• 43:35Tom Ellsworth?

  I'm on the same page with the cuts. I'm still in for definitely one cut. And I feel relatively confident there's going to be two. But if you take a look at the way the news media, even the business news media, not the deep business news media, the popular stuff, the surface stuff, they react to market forces the same way they react to last night's score of a baseball game. Oh, Yankees eight, Boston two, Yankees on a roll. And that's just, that's just a headline. And I think what you have to look at, at all these statistics, you have to look at the totality of it. For instance, this is, you know, inflation stubbornly above 2%. Yeah, but look where it is really, and it's, and it's overstated, as Barry said.

• 44:21Tom Ellsworth?

  And take a look at what's really happening with unemployment and take a look at what's really happening with the economy. You know what business needs?

• 44:29Speaker 06

  Hmm.

• 44:30Tom Ellsworth?

  A little bit cheaper money to make some investment. And you know what the US frickin' government needs?

• 44:34Speaker 06

  Hmm.

• 44:35Tom Ellsworth?

  A little bit cheaper money when we refile this debt, which is coming up. So this is, I don't want a knee jerk reaction, just drop, drop, drop, drop, drop. Because Trump says, you know, take them down to one, take them down to one. No, no, no, no, no. I'm not on that page at all. And I am definitely not on the page of that, that, that Trump becomes the de facto head of the Fed where he decides what he wants and then just forces it. I think what we've got coming in worse is a really good person. And I think he's strong. I think he's got an even hand. And I see these, these headlines, why the next Fed rate move could be a hike. It's because they're looking at the last three little things that happened, like the score of last night's baseball game.

• 45:15Speaker 06

  I'd like to underscore is, first of all, great points. And one of the things that people look at when they see the economy and they say, well, you know what, the labor market is strong, is they misread the initial jobless claims numbers, you know, we'll get that tomorrow. And they have been very, very well behaved. So this is people filing for unemployment benefits, as you guys know, for the first time. And those numbers have been extraordinarily low and consistent. I think that people that are looking at that and they watch people on CNBC talk about it and other economists and even publications, I think they miss the point. I think that their thinking is pre pandemic thinking. I mean, think about it from a logical perspective. Median income in the US is $87,000 per a household. So let's just say somebody's making 80 or $90,000. You just, heaven forbid, you just

• 45:59Speaker 06

  lost your job. Yes, you could claim unemployment benefits and collect 300, 400 dollars a week, but that's not going to make ends meet. But what do you have today? You have gig economy. I could do Instacart. I could do Uber. I could do Lyft. And while that might not be something I want to do forever, that can help me make ends meet. But that would disqualify me from going on the ranks of unemployment benefits because I wouldn't be able to collect it. So I think that unemployment benefits are artificially low. And I think because we have a gig economy, that the number is truly much higher. When you take a look at how many people have also fallen off unemployment benefits because, you know, either 26 weeks expired, or, or the 19 weeks, depending on the state that you're in.

• 46:42Speaker 06

  Those numbers are continuously growing. And one other thing is job openings. Job openings are plummeting. If you take a look at the last three years, they are absolutely plummeting. The Jolts report, you could see it on a graph. It is, it paints, it paints the picture. But even that is incorrect because it's interesting. You guys probably know this, but the way that job openings are accounted for is it's not a a government number that comes across the whole country. It is state by state and they aggregate them. Again, post pandemic, you could work from anywhere. So if I'm an employer and it's a job that can be worked from home, I'm not going to be limited to one state. I'll post the same job in several states, which means that that's going to be counted multiple times in certain situations.

• 47:25Speaker 06

  So I think as bad as the numbers look for job openings, the true story is it's much worse.

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• 49:45Tom Ellsworth?

  Yep, and I'll give you a simple chart, and people that are watching can see it. Rob, I just sent it to you, just texted you right here, just one click away. Look at this is, this is Fred, you know, St. Louis statistics. This is Fred, which is Federal Reserve Bank in St. Louis. They put out a lot of statistics. Pat, look at what's happened since the end of COVID, since COVID peaked 2020. Look at what's happening to the number of multiple job holders in the United States. Look at that. This is, this is-

• 50:16Patrick Bet-David?

  That's in how many? Is that in the thousand? That's in the thousand. So-

• 50:19Tom Ellsworth?

  That's correct.

• 50:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Go all the way up, 488,000 people right now hold multiple jobs?

• 50:23Tom Ellsworth?

  That they can count. And this is a full-time, and this is people that have full-time employment. So it's like a subset of subset. So you have to treat this as a trend line and look at it across the population. This is exactly what Barry is talking about.

• 50:36Speaker 07

  It's such an unhealthy sign. I'm gonna play devil's advocate, though. So I actually disagreed with you guys last time we spoke, where you guys were saying that we should cut rates. I was saying that we should hike rates because I think that disposable income was getting hurt because of, you know, I think inflation's understated, if anything, between housing and food. But- With the oil situation now, that's why they're talking about hiking rates instead. But I think they're misreading that now. There's some debate about this, but typically when oil goes up like this, you know, there's argument that yes, it makes everything else expensive, but also destroys disposable income. So a lot of things actually go down in price because people don't have the extra disposable income to buy it. So I think an argument can be made that maybe you do need to either keep rates the same

• 51:18Speaker 07

  or cut rates now that oil's this high because this situation tends to make, you know, everything deflate because people don't have as much disposable income. So that kind of causes recessive aspects with the market. And, you know, when you cut rates, when the market goes up, when house prices go up, then the wealth effect happens where people have more money and they spend more money on goods and services and that pushes prices up. So it's a question of do people need more money or do things need to be less expensive?

• 51:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Everybody thinks selfishly. So what you're sounding like a buyer.

• 51:50Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 51:51Patrick Bet-David?

  And, and, and maybe Barry and Tom are speaking on behalf of the owner and the seller.

• 51:56Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 51:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. So as the buyer, what do you want? You want everything to be discounted. So your idea, your philosophy.

• 52:03Speaker 07

  Fair market value.

• 52:04Patrick Bet-David?

  It is fair market value, but you want to be able to get a bit of a discount and maybe, you know, you may think certain things are overpriced. Barry may be saying, you know, and Tom may be saying and speaking like as a president, politician, guess what the president wants? The president wants what?

• 52:19Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 52:20Patrick Bet-David?

  He says, look, I want housing prices to go up. I don't want housing to go.

• 52:23Speaker 07

  Cause he's known, yeah, yeah.

• 52:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Six weeks ago.

• 52:25Speaker 07

  Cause he's an owner.

• 52:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Cause not only is he an owner, but the way the system is set up to get reelected, sometimes the right thing to do won't get you reelected and hurt you in the midterms.

• 52:36Speaker 07

  Right.

• 52:37Patrick Bet-David?

  So you may not be wrong.

• 52:39Speaker 07

  Mm hmm.

• 52:40Patrick Bet-David?

  But the likelihood of doing what you're proposing won't happen because there's a midterm coming up in six or seven months.

• 52:47Speaker 07

  Yeah, it's like Argentina situation.

• 52:48Speaker 06

  Think about the prices coming down though. I, I'm, I don't think that that's a good thing. Just like, like people say deflation is worse than inflation. It's true. It is. Nobody wants to buy the bottom.

• 52:58Speaker 07

  Sure.

• 52:58Speaker 06

  Think about, think about this though. Think about if you're. Waiting for prices to come down. By the way, you're gonna wait a long time. If you're waiting for prices to come down and you win, you're right, prices come down. Now guess what? Now you're starting to root for them to go up, aren't you? Because if they continue to go down, are you buying at the bottom? That's a losing.

• 53:15Patrick Bet-David?

  I agree. That's what I'm saying. It's the buyer and the seller's mentality.

• 53:18Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 53:19Patrick Bet-David?

  So, so check this out.

• 53:20Speaker 06

  That buyer becomes a seller and owner.

• 53:22Patrick Bet-David?

  So here's what you have to be thinking about, Brandon. Something for you to consider.

• 53:26Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 53:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, if you're the president, he- hear me out.

• 53:30Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 53:31Patrick Bet-David?

  Who, who, who should, who should you win over? Those who want the market and the economy to go up because they're vested? Because they have invested into property, because they have invested in equities? Because they've invested into what the market is doing? Or those who are on the sidelines? Who, who should you make better policies for?

• 53:51Speaker 07

  People who own things carry more weight.

• 53:52Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm more in the business of making sure I make the climate better for those who have more to lose. Because those who have more to lose are taking risks and the others are not.

• 54:02Speaker 07

  But the people who own things right now, like say the boomers, for example, who own like half the wealth.

• 54:06Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I'm gonna go because I think the Dave Ramsey story, I'm gonna come to you first because I wanna hear your thoughts. Because there are millions of people that do agree with you and I want that argument to be made as well. Barry, I know you're talking to Rob about a chart. Do you wanna kind of tell us about the chart?

• 54:18Speaker 06

  I just wanted to show the Jolts report. That's, that's not this one. But if you look at this Jolts report, Fred has a little bit better view of it if you have the Fred one. You'd see that peak there and you could just see what has been happening since 2020.

• 54:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Can you explain to us what this is?

• 54:31Speaker 06

  So job openings and labor turnover. This is what we were talking about. You post a job that's available. So this is a job opening. I wanna hire you, just like you did at the very beginning. You're hiring, right?

• 54:40Patrick Bet-David?

  So this is in the thousands, just to speak clearly with everybody that's watching this. So if I add a thousand to that, that means there's, in March of 2022, there was 12.3 million job openings in a market.

• 54:52Speaker 06

  And that's come down to about 6.4 million, if I'm not mistaken, is where we should be in the LACE report.

• 54:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 54:58Speaker 06

  That's right. I think there's one more that we're missing on the data points. Yeah, it's around there. So, so 6.5 million. But as you could see, and what's happening here, Pat, is if you contemplate the fact that this does incorporate what I talked about earlier. You can post jobs in several states. The way this data is aggregated, it's state by state and you add them up. It's highly likely and very probable that there are, this is overstated because there are multiple postings. You did not have that pre-pandemic.

• 55:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, so this could, okay, I got it. So, yeah, but how many is that? So let's just, is that 1%? It's not 10%.

• 55:33Speaker 06

  You know.

• 55:34Patrick Bet-David?

  It's probably, it's probably, let's say it's 3%, because we've been hiring for a long time. But let's just say, like, right now, we'll do job postings for certain jobs. And we're recruiting now from New York market, from San Francisco, from LA, from Chicago, from Dallas. So let's just say we are. Let's say it's 5%.

• 55:50Speaker 06

  Yeah, but, but that's a 500% increase on that one job, though. Okay?

• 55:55Patrick Bet-David?

  It is, but that, but that's 6, 6.5 million job postings. Take 300,000 out, there's really 6.2 million job postings. It's not that big of a difference.

• 56:06Speaker 06

  In either case, the fact that it's likely overstated is just on top of the fact that you can't ignore the trajectory of where.

• 56:13Patrick Bet-David?

  So what's the point you're making?

• 56:15Speaker 06

  The point is that the, the job market is, has got a lot of weakness. We've got.

• 56:19Patrick Bet-David?

  I agree.

• 56:19Speaker 06

  We, we've got creations which have been negative more times than they have been positive on the BLS report in the last six months, seven months.

• 56:26Speaker 07

  Is that just because of rates, though, you think? Because it looks like that lines up pretty closely with where rates are. Like, even going back on that chart.

• 56:32Speaker 06

  No, because rates, rates were, um.

• 56:35Speaker 07

  They were at zero until 2022.

• 56:36Speaker 06

  I understand. That is absolutely correct, which really underscores the point that while it's not entirely rate-driven, it does tell you that the Fed really needs to help this economy by cutting rates because the labor market is soft.

• 56:49Speaker 07

  I mean, but every time the Fed tries to help the economy, then they end up over-correcting and making the situation worse.

• 56:54Speaker 06

  Because of the real-view mirror effect, because if they, how many times have we heard them say, "We're data-dependent"? I agree with you, but the fact that they are constantly data-dependent, and they're looking at data that is either lagging, old, or overstated, they're making the wrong decision. It's kind of like, I think Alan Greenspan gave this, and the maestro was a terrific Fed chair. No, I thought he was a good Fed chair. 18 and a half years, you know, we, we did have a situation, but over the 18 and a half years, most of the time, he did get it right. It's not an easy job. But with Greenspan, what he gave was the analogy of a shower. And he said, "If you go into your shower and you turn the water all the way hot because it comes out cold," Then you have to adjust it later, it becomes too hot. And then if you go the other way, he said, you should probably set it where it's going to be and be patient.

• 57:39Speaker 06

  And I don't think we've seen that from the Fed. I think they, as you had just said, overcorrect one direction or the other.

• 57:46Speaker 07

  Yeah, I can't say it, state it strongly enough. I think it's the most poisonous, toxic, horrible thing in our society that some group of old people controls the price of money because, you know, the, what socialism or communism is, is when the board of people control the price of things. But the most important thing in our world is money. So they control the price of money and they get it wrong every time. So I think that's one of the biggest problems that we face. That and the gold standard getting taken out.

• 58:07Patrick Bet-David?

  You, you may not be wrong, but it's where we are right now. Okay, so that decision was made many years ago before us in 1906.

• 58:13Speaker 07

  1913.

• 58:15Patrick Bet-David?

  At the Jekyll Island, and we know that meeting, I've been in that room, I held a meeting in that room five, six, seven years ago. It's a very historic place, right? It's right outside of Jacksonville. I think it's like, uh, uh, it's like an hour away from Georgia and Jacksonville. It's right there. But anyways, go, go into this. Let me tell you where I want to go with this because, um, you almost went there, but you didn't go there. And that's job market right now. So I'll read a couple of headlines and you see where it's going. Business Insider, how tech broke the job market. All right. Business Insider, uh, yesterday, employees are taking pay cuts in huge numbers. Okay? Dave Ramsey warns young hopefuls, locked out of housing market, corporate America screwed you.

• 58:59Patrick Bet-David?

  So these, these messages are coming left and right, right? What should I be doing? And, and I think, Rob, let's go with the one of employees are taking pay cuts, uh, in huge numbers. Let me read this to you and kind of go through it because these are, when you're seeing a market, Facebook's claiming they're going to let go of 20% from 78,000 to losing what? 15,800 people? These are $370,000 a year jobs, high paying jobs. Where's that job going to? Is this the conversations of Claude? Hey, we can do the job of this many people. I don't need to hire this many people anymore. And, you know, Jack Dorsey's tweet of six weeks ago, he just opened up and said, this is what I'm going through. What do you want me to do?

• 59:34Speaker 07

  AI developers.

• 59:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Yes, AI developers. Now you got developers that are coming in that as good of a developer, you may be a full stack, but a lot of them behind closed doors are just kind of using Claude and others to help them do, you know, they're using different language learning models. So they're not even doing what they learn how to do. They're relying on, because they don't even know they're replacing themselves sometimes on the way they're working. It's a very interesting climate right now, but let me read the story to you and I'm going to come to you guys. So.

• 1:00:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Employees taking pay cuts in huge numbers. What is this? Yesterday, when we were going through the story, Humberto kept saying, can we please not talk about that story? And I said, look, you brought the story up, so we gotta talk about it. So, since losing his job in 2023, Scott has applied to 1,600 jobs, completed 78 interviews, and depleted his savings just to stay afloat. This guy reminds me of the Jubilee guy, but they're different guys. The constant rejection has become so unbearable that he went on antidepressants. Now, remember, this is Business Insider, so it's a little bit of a woke type of a thing. So, as you're reading this, please, you know, brace for impact. There's emotion. That's probably the person that wrote this

• 1:00:43Patrick Bet-David?

  went to a, you know, school that's more of a left-leaning journalistic school. So, Rob, can we find out who wrote this article? I actually want to know who the author of this article is. So, when a recruiter from a staffing company called with a job offer last December, he hung up, walked upstairs, told his wife the news, and cried, "It finally happened." He remembers thinking, "The triumph through, though bittersweet, the position was a six-month contract as a technician, two steps down from his previous role as a senior manager. He'd have no guarantee of work once the contract ends, and he'd be earning only half what he made before. Accepting this is going to set my career back five years," he told me. "I know I'm really good. I want a chance to prove myself." "We've all heard about how grueling the white-collar job search has become,

• 1:01:28Patrick Bet-David?

  but the market is so tough right now that even the people landing jobs often aren't the success stories they appear to be." "Revellulabs, an analytic provider, recently looked at the data it collects from across the internet and found that an alarming share of people are settling for roles that pay less than the ones they had before. Among all white-collar workers who changed jobs at the end of last year, 40% of them took salary cuts of more than 10%, Revellulabs analysis showed. That's the highest share in at least a decade. The share of professionals getting similarly large raises is also at its lowest level." Tom?

• 1:02:04Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, guess what? We have now come to the other side of the supply chain. Right? This is, this is, to me, this is supply and demand. Now, call it AI, call it adjustments, call it, say, CEOs are using AI and AI washing to justify right sizing. By the way, Meta came out, remember I called them out, Pat? And I said that some of those job layoffs were from the metaverse. Remember this large, large hole that Facebook dug and started when they rebranded Meta? Started pouring billions and billions of dollars in and analysts were saying, just how big is that hole for the metaverse you keep pouring billions of dollars into? Well, guess what? They came out and said, well, yeah, some of these layoffs this week, yeah, there's a

• 1:02:49Tom Ellsworth?

  good number of them that are metaverse. Then they came out and said, how about 1,500? And then there were Reddit, there was Reddit responses from people that claimed to be inside Facebook that said, yeah, buddy, more like 4,500 to 6,000 of them were related to the metaverse. So there's AI washing going on on the layoffs. What am I getting to? Well, there is a supply difference happening. In that article, it also provided statistics that the number of large percent raises are down. Oh, that means people aren't having to give raises to keep people. Remember you had to pay the bribe during COVID?

• 1:03:25Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 1:03:26Tom Ellsworth?

  Or lose your best engineer who said, I'm walking across the street, I work from home and I can have my dog on my lap and all these things I can do? Well, the supply has changed. And right now, there's fewer job openings, there's people looking for them, and now you have a supply issue. And guess what happens? Price goes down when supply goes up. And I think that's what's happening now. And it's also happening on a regional basis. Now, is some of it AI? Maybe. Is some of it that the economy is taking a pulse right now? You're looking at the number of jobs that were, that being made, it's basically flat for four months. Even if you go back and you say, oh, the 92,000 job losses, they're going to revise that down. Yeah, okay, go back and look at all those. Let's say we revise it. It basically says flat.

• 1:04:10Tom Ellsworth?

  It doesn't say that we lost half a million jobs and there's a recession and all this. It says it's basically flat.

• 1:04:15Speaker 06

  Yeah, certainly it's much more acute in the tech sector, of course, because they as they know, with that branch out, it potentially could. But if you look at the numbers from ADP and you look at the job stayers and job switchers, while the numbers have certainly come down on the switchers, it's still a premium. They're still at about roughly six and a half percent year over year versus roughly four and a half percent year over year on the job stayers. So there's still some premium. So I think in the tech sector, this is very acute, but there are probably other sectors where they are still relatively stable.

• 1:04:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Brandon?

• 1:04:45Speaker 07

  Yeah, I mean, the situation in 2021, 2022 was la la land. I mean, anybody reasonable should have thought that that was unsustainable. We just had a ton of money pouring into the economy. We had, you know, companies with zero percent interest rates taking out loans. So they were able to pay a ton of money like that. So that's why that craziness was happening. But while I think people that are around my age in this ballpark are in a tougher situation than historically speaking, I think it's still entirely feasible to get whatever you want out of life. If you're, you know, make sure you're exceptional in some way or go the extra mile in other ways, but if you do what everybody else does, you're going to get what everybody else gets. So this guy applying to 1,600 jobs on LinkedIn or whatever, I mean, yeah, like you're blending in with everybody else.

• 1:05:30Speaker 07

  I mean, like, for example, when I came here, I took like all these crazy drastic measures that nobody else would have done. I was like contacting every single person that worked at the company. I was like mailing stuff here, like all these.

• 1:05:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Very creative, the way you got the job here.

• 1:05:44Speaker 07

  Yeah. So I mean, I think that that's what, how people have to think.

• 1:05:47Patrick Bet-David?

  I agree. I agree. And by the way, look what happened. You got one job, then another job, then now you're running it on the consulting side, which is a complete different thing. And your background was what? A master's in national security and a bachelor's in national security, right? But you had to drive to go get it done. This is why part, sometime when I hear stories like this, when, hey, here's what this person's going through and here's how long it's taken to do this and here's how long it's taken to do that. If the people that are in this mindset. That you can't go get, sometimes you have to go and see what the market wants to pay you today. Sometimes your market price changes. Some people come in like, let me tell you, do you know I used to be with CNN or Fox or MSNBC?

• 1:06:29Patrick Bet-David?

  And I'm gonna start a podcast and I want you to pay me $10 million, five-year contract. First of all, have you ever done a podcast? No. You think your fame is gonna translate from CNN to just start a podcast? Didn't Jake Tapper just recently on CNN, was he doing a show? And they're trying to do it on the podcast, said because CNN is starting to realize what's going on. This is him actually doing his, this is really his new set. Wow. And Rob, this isn't a podcast, right? This is actual CNN cable TV. Can you play this for the first 30 seconds?

• 1:07:00Speaker 16

  So you're probably wondering what's going on, why we're in my office for the first hour of the lead today. So it's an experiment. This is my actual desk where I do my actual work, not the desk in the studio. And we thought we would bring you into the space where me and my team do our actual journalism and plan the show every day. So here we are giving it a shot. You might also be wondering about the decor, the posters and the kerchiefs and such on my wall. Well, the theme is these are all losing presidential campaigns. And this hobby started 26 years ago after I covered my very first presidential campaign in the year 2000.

• 1:07:35Patrick Bet-David?

  You can pause it. So you know, a lot of times people are like, well, I'm gonna go from there to this. And then you look at ranking for some podcasts, they're like, how is that guy beating that guy? How are amateurs beating professionals? The market is gonna tell you exactly how they feel. Like, I'll give you an idea. Yesterday, we're having a conversation. I think Justin's in the room, could have been yesterday, could have been two days ago. Justin remembered this. And the conversation was, hey, what do we want to do with the chat? I said, what do you mean? He said, man, the chat says this, the chat says that, the chat says this. What do we do with the chats? I know Tom reads every one of the chats that comes out, right? He's going through it right now as we see. No, I'm not. So what do you do with the chat, right? What do you look at the chat? You know, why don't we shut down the chat? Why?

• 1:08:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Man, that's brutal sometimes. I said, no. You sure? Absolutely. Why not? Let them rip. Why? That's the difference between mainstream media and independent podcasters. You and I cannot watch, you know, the news on TV and see what listeners are actually saying. You just have to accept the fact that that's what the messaging is. Then you read the commentary and by the way, I'll go and I'll look at Instagram or X or YouTube and I'll see comment sections. And this is the part that's a very important skill set that people have to pick up nowadays. So yesterday there was a post made and I watched the video and I went down. And I looked at the first account I clicked on. Follows 3,000 people, has zero followers.

• 1:09:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Follows 992 people, has 17 followers. So I said, "You're a bot, you're a bot, you're a bot, this is real." "You're a bot, you're a bot, you're a bot, you're a bot, you're a bot, this is real." That effort has to be on you. And on top of that, here's the other part that's happening right now, which is a beautiful thing because, you know, you have to know propaganda. Like this is the greatest season to be in a propaganda business. If you're an enemy, if you want to divide a nation, if you want to divide a political party, if you want to divide a family, if you want to divide a team, if you want to divide a state, if you want to, if you want to divide anything today, the greatest propaganda weapon ever has been handed to you

• 1:09:50Patrick Bet-David?

  that even the amateur, the guy that wrote the book Propaganda, will look at it and say, "My God, we can really destroy some great states today." Because of the propaganda tool that we have, right? And you'll see all these videos of, I remember one time, one guy says, "Pat, one of our clients was a previous presidential candidate that got up to 19%. I won't say his name. He said, "He was one of our big clients." I said, "What do you mean he was one of our big clients?" He says, "Come in the room." I go into the room. I'm not even kidding with you. Thousands of phones. Who are all sending tweets, who are all sending comments, who are all, I said, so what do you do? He says, we can take anybody and make the market believe they are trending more than anything else. And the backend, like where the internet is coming from, they're able to link it to different places.

• 1:10:33Patrick Bet-David?

  So it doesn't show like it's all from one location coming, so it doesn't even trigger an X or Facebook or the old Twitter or YouTube to be able to read this. Guess what the market's gonna say? We want the chat, we leave the chat. A lot of people don't like to do it. I love it. I love for the market to go through it and filter each other out because you, you gotta be, you gotta be almost, what's the word, Tom? You gotta be almost, um, there's a word for it where, when, when I was on the podcast with Joe and Joe and I were talking about comments and Joe says, but Pat, you, you can't compare us because we're used to comments. We're used to what's going on. The average person's not, right? I love that the market is speaking to each other to see what's gonna be happening. The market right now, when they're talking about jobs,

• 1:11:18Patrick Bet-David?

  people are saying it's a scary time for jobs. Forget about the article we're reading. The market is saying, Pat, I'm afraid, I had 22 students here two weeks ago. Top ambassadors of this great school, 4.85 GPA, going, getting accepted into big schools. Yeah. We're talking about schools like, uh, you know, uh, uh, that, that, you know, Ivy League and some of these other, and I'm talking to these guys. And we're talking about career planning, what they do next. What should we do? How do we reposition ourselves? This is not a time to go into, you have to find a way to compete against everybody else. And even look, I'll go to the Dave Ramsey story. Dave Ramsey warns young people.

• 1:11:55Patrick Bet-David?

  Locked out of housing market, corporate America has screwed you. Rob, do you have the clip on, uh, Dave Ramsey here if you want to play this clip? Here's what Dave Ramsey had to say about it. Go ahead.

• 1:12:05Speaker 17

  Says that, uh, corporate America has screwed you. Car debt is at an all time high. The car companies have now got you signing up for $1,200 car payments. Student loan debt is at an all time high. And this is Gen Z and millennials. And of course, credit card debt, thank you to the big banks, is at an all time high. When you've, when you're drowning in Personal debt, you can't afford to buy a freaking house. And that's what's happened. We've had these big companies, the car companies, the banks and Congress with the student loan debt, screwing these two generations at a record like never before. And so what we're finding is we're finding lots of Gen Z'ers, lots of millennials, able to buy a home when they fight through and sell the stupid car and get rid of these debts.

• 1:12:50Speaker 18

  Do you think that that's why they're maybe not going out there and buying those first-time homes? They're looking to other investments?

• 1:12:56Speaker 17

  Well, they're not looking at other investments. They're broke. Their disposable income has been eaten up by those three categories I was talking about. Again, car debt is out of control.

• 1:13:06Speaker 06

  Barry, what do you think about what they're saying here? I think he's talking his book to some degree. You know, certainly there is a lot of debt out there. We've seen that. You're thinking he's selling the book right now? I think he's just talking his book. His whole thing is, I'm gonna get you out of debt. I'm gonna get... So that's his whole... For sure. That's a good point. Okay. So, but he made some good points. And clearly, the evidence is there that we have seen credit card debt rise rather significantly. I believe it's up 22% over the past four or five years. So, we have seen a big jump up in credit card debt. And the amount that you're carrying. So, that has a, you know, a very poor effect on your overall ability to purchase a home. But I do believe that what we really need to look at is on the overall picture. If I'm looking to purchase a home right now,

• 1:13:51Speaker 06

  my down payment is definitely part of that problem. Is the down payment, I have to come up with the savings. Also, my psyche is another one because I'm hearing all this negative stuff about the housing market. And many people don't have the education. Some people think you need 20% to buy a home. They don't realize you could buy a home with 3.5% or 5%. If you ask, I think there was a survey that was done by Realtor.com. About half the individuals that are asked to buy a home, they think you need 20% down. So, there is an educational... Gap there in people entering the housing market. That said, it's still, it's still a challenge to, to buy home. But what Ramsey is also talking about here is, is that, you know, this debt is something that is pushed upon people.

• 1:14:35Speaker 06

  To some extent it is, you get 100 credit card offers in the mail. But there also should be some financial education as well to make good decisions too.

• 1:14:43Speaker 10

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• 1:16:13Speaker 13

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• 1:17:00Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, we live in an instant satisfaction society. And that's why, and I've been railing against this. Your credit cards now were about to hit 1.3 trillion or 1.28 trillion right now. The numbers I saw, which was the January monthly calculations. Number one. Number two, BNPL had all kinds of default figures that were popping up in January. What does that mean? Well, it means that the Christmas and holiday purchases and post-holiday sales, and you went and bought a big screen TV for another $1,000 and everything, you know, at Best Buy and got it installed for your Super Bowl party, and you put it on BNPL, and then you only made half of the first payment,

• 1:17:45Tom Ellsworth?

  and you triggered the hyper-interest rate. Look carefully at BNPL. If you don't pay those two, three, or four very specific payments on specific dates, the slam bam that you get on the interest rate is insane. It's 30% or more in some cases. And so, it's the... Part of it is, Pat, we can talk about student loans and manipulation of students and the cost of tuition. And I'll rail against colleges that basically use the US government's student loan program to raise tuition. It's a monopoly. We could talk about that. But I'm going to stick with the consumer. There's some common sense for the consumer and financial education that's needed that Barry was alluding to. Because no college manipulated you

• 1:18:29Tom Ellsworth?

  to spend $1,000 bucks at Best Buy on a big-screen TV and put it on BNPL, right? Nobody forced you to do that. So, there's got to be some common sense on the consumer. And I'll say, oh, these people are being victimized, victimized. You know, that's, that's not always the case. And, you know, the things that have happened to car loans are correct. They kept stretching it out. I remember when, I remember where I was when a friend says, hey, I got a 60-month car loan. I said, you got a 60-month car loan? When I had bought a Ford Escort after I got out of college, a little Ford Escort, cheap to insure, reliable, you know, economical in terms of gas. That was my criteria.

• 1:19:13Tom Ellsworth?

  It was a 48-month car loan with an option to bring it down to 36. So you know what I did? I got my bonus and I put like an extra $1,000 down. And I had a 36-month car loan. So you still had 36 and 48. Now look at the lengths of them. 36 months now is a, oh, you want 36 months? Lease it. Lease it. This is what we're gonna do. So the consumer, you know, has to have a hand in their own salvation here, in my opinion. And Dave Ramsey's, Dave Ramsey's right, but to merely sweep it off and say, oh, corporate America has screwed you, maybe there's some of that going on. But come on, Dave. Consumers have to have, you know, common sense.

• 1:19:58Tom Ellsworth?

  You see a 400-pound person and you say the food got in there somehow.

• 1:20:02Speaker 07

  Yeah. Brandon? Yeah, so I don't think it's just corporate America. I'm, I'm using analogy, but first I'll say my base case is that I think boomers pillaged America, pillaged their generations after them, Gen X and millennials and Gen Z. And I'll use the analogy that, um, you guys have all done well for yourselves. Do you think if you were to take out an amount of debt that exceeded your net worth by like 5 to 6X and then left your kids and grandkids with that, would that put them in a good situation?

• 1:20:31Tom Ellsworth?

  Are you talking about the federal deficit?

• 1:20:33Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 1:20:35Tom Ellsworth?

  Okay, well, you could say that for the last three generations, right?

• 1:20:38Speaker 07

  Yeah, going back to boomers, so boomers. But boomers have been running.

• 1:20:43Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't like to generalize all boomers as pillaging. I don't like that.

• 1:20:46Speaker 07

  No, well, it's not. It's obviously not all of them, because not all of them control society, but the ones that are in politics, the ones that are in business, the ones that are creating monetary policy. So when I say boomers, I'm saying like the boomers that run society.

• 1:20:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so it's not boomers.

• 1:20:58Speaker 07

  No, like a lot of people have no idea what's going on, but like, you know, people don't, aren't as aware of what's going on as they should be.

• 1:21:03Patrick Bet-David?

  What's your question? Go back to your question.

• 1:21:05Tom Ellsworth?

  I share your ire, but.

• 1:21:06Speaker 07

  So if you put, if you start off in a strong position, but then you take out an amount of debt to pull a lifestyle forward that you want to, that exceeds your current capacity for a lifestyle.

• 1:21:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Like, meaning if you, are you talking house or college?

• 1:21:19Speaker 07

  For the analogy I used?

• 1:21:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, the analogy you're.

• 1:21:21Speaker 07

  Just like for style of.

• 1:21:22Patrick Bet-David?

  If you're this age, you buy this, you buy this, what do you do?

• 1:21:26Speaker 07

  So I'm talking for standard of living, like, so, you know, say you're doing well, but like you're in the top 1%, but you want, you want even more than you have. You take out an amount of debt that exceeds your net worth by 5 to 10x or exceeds your yearly.

• 1:21:38Patrick Bet-David?

  To buy a house.

• 1:21:39Speaker 07

  Yeah, to buy a house, to buy boats, to buy cars, and then your kids end up getting left with that debt. So you start off with like a high.

• 1:21:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Also have the asset.

• 1:21:46Speaker 07

  Yeah, like we have assets here, but our debt exceeds our yearly revenue. Like, our tax revenue is like 5 trillion, our debt's like 40 trillion. Right? So there, it wasn't always the case that our national debt exceeded our annual revenue. So I'm saying that the reason our standard of living has gone down, the reason our disposable income has gone down is because the generations prior to us have pulled forward money that, you know, was from the future to themselves, inflated assets. Now those assets are much more expensive.

• 1:22:13Patrick Bet-David?

  Is that available to you?

• 1:22:15Speaker 07

  The ability to do that?

• 1:22:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Options available to you?

• 1:22:19Speaker 07

  To pull wealth forward like that?

• 1:22:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, are those options available to you?

• 1:22:23Speaker 07

  Um, that we're still doing it, yeah. And like, like the last four, five years, for example, we're still technically pulling wealth forward from the future when we're printing a couple of trillion dollars.

• 1:22:31Patrick Bet-David?

  To me, there's two things. There's two things on how I process that. The one way I process that, Brandon, is. You and I, i- i- in every sales organization, there's comp plans. Mm-hmm. And sales organizations will often change comp plans. Yeah. And sometimes when, why do they change comp plans? Let's go reason why sales, we've all been in sales. So why do sales organizations change comp plans? Think about it. One, they realize they're overpaying. Two, bad habits were being created by sales guys and it was affecting, they were like gaming the system. Three, to produce better quality clients that stay on the book, so it's a long-term valuation versus a short-term. But why do they change comp plans? There's a reason why they change comp plans. And I'm gonna tell you one other thing why they change comp plans that goes to you. Mm-hmm.

• 1:23:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Sometimes they change comp plans that benefits the guys that no longer work, okay? The guys that are like, man, I haven't, I haven't done shit for a while, but dude, change the comp plan to benefit. I was in a company that changed the comp plan for the guys that were no longer working, they just wanted more to go to them. That they're no longer working, okay? Regardless of what happened, you have a couple of choices. Either you maximize that comp plan and eventually have so much clout and voice that you can what? Impact the comp plan. Yeah. I don't know if that made sense. It does. So go maximize whatever the current comp plan you have, then get moral authority, then go talk about it and then do something about it. Those are really your options. Yeah. You understand what I'm saying? Yeah, and that's what I'm doing. Yeah, and I love that.

• 1:24:01Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm just making it clear to everybody. I want you to keep doing that, but a- a- a part that with Tom and, and, um, Barry are saying is that the, the guy, in my opinion, the guy, there's a saying, I took my kid to a tryout with one of the most well-known soccer teams here. And one of the coaches shows up and these kids are talking about, well, that kid's gonna be younger next year and that kid, the new age thing that they're doing is gonna go this and it's gonna, and the coach said one thing that shut every parent up. You know what the coach said? What? Very simple line. He said, if you're good enough, you're old enough. Hmm. So no parent could say anything about their son, because every parent thinks their, their, their son is what? The greatest.

• 1:24:43Patrick Bet-David?

  The greatest, and it's like, no, we have 12-year-olds that are beating 16-year-olds. We have 10-year-olds that are doing laps around 14-year-olds. Yeah. So guess what? If your kid is good enough, you're what? You're old enough. Yeah. So, what's the point? I have a feeling, the guys that made it in the seventies, would have made it in the nineties, would have made it in the two thousand teens, and would have made it in twenty twenty six. Why? What do they have? They're gonna find a way to make the current tax system and complan work in their favor. Yeah. And I will lean towards that mindset than anything else. Like, you know, just yesterday, we're doing some math on, on athletes, right? Like, if you, you're an athlete, you play for four different teams. I made this video and I was talking about it.

• 1:25:28Patrick Bet-David?

  But let's just say somebody makes two hundred thousand dollars a year. Mm-hmm. And over the next ten years, what's your income gonna be next ten years? What are you gonna make? Two million dollars? Yeah. Okay. So, if you live in California, on that two million dollars, you're gonna pay an additional thirteen point three percent in taxes. Right. What's thirteen point three percent in taxes over ten years? What's thirteen three on two million? Two hundred and sixty thousand if you don't count for the growth of it. That's right, two hundred and sixty thousand. In New York, it's two hundred and fifty thousand. By the way, if you lived in Texas, Tennessee, Nevada, Florida, what happens to that two hundred and fifty, two hundred and sixty thousand dollars? In your pocket? You take that two hundred and sixty thousand dollars. You could, you use compound interest at four, eight, eleven and a half percent,

• 1:26:13Patrick Bet-David?

  which is what the S and P's done the last, you know, uh, uh, what do you call it? Forty years. Rob, run this calculation. Two hundred and sixty thousand dollars, forty years from now, at four percent, at eight percent, at eleven and a half percent. What is it turning to? Now, let me tell you where I'm going with this. I don't have to live in California. Yeah. I don't have to live in Illinois. I don't have to live in New York. Someone, well, you don't understand, I'm a true New Yorker. My family are true Iranian, Armenian, Assyrian, but they chose to go somewhere where their kids are gonna have a better career. Okay, and they're gonna do better for themselves. Not in four years, Rob, in forty years, Rob. Yeah. In forty years. The easy way to do it is you have that many doubles, you use the rule of seven. Yeah, I, I totally get that.

• 1:26:56Patrick Bet-David?

  But to me, if, if I'm going to that in, you know, two hundred and sixty years and just put in forty years, uh, uh, he, here's, here's what you'll see. The four percent turns into one point two, eight percent turns into five point six, twelve percent turns into twenty four million. You living in New York? Or California, making $200,000 a year costs your future kids generational wealth of potentially $24 million. That's your decision. Nobody told you to do it. You know, so, so to me, a lot of this stuff, when they go into poor me, you don't understand all this stuff. I get it. It's a message, but if you're using that the reason why you're losing, not you, because you're, you're a worker. You're one of the hardest working guys in the building, but some kids or young men and women

• 1:27:40Patrick Bet-David?

  who use that as the reason why they're not winning, that's exactly the mindset why you are in the situation that you are in right now. You gotta change it. You gotta go to a climate where your peer pressure challenges you to work better, to make better decisions. I'll go to this next story to be, to be thinking about, and it's about Claude.

• 1:27:57Speaker 07

  Can I give one quick thing on that?

• 1:27:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, go for it.

• 1:27:59Speaker 07

  Um, so I totally agree with you on that, but the, the fact of the matter is that, you know, the, the rule of 80/20, you know, 80% of people are just regular people and I'm, you know, I'm not concerned about myself at all. I know exactly what I need to do to get where I want to get, but people who are just average people that are trying to work a job. Like back in the day, they could have an okay standard of living. Right now, those people are going to get eviscerated and that's not good for society.

• 1:28:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Can I ask you a question?

• 1:28:19Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 1:28:20Patrick Bet-David?

  How many of those guys have taken a Claude course that's six months to learn how to use Claude?

• 1:28:24Speaker 07

  Probably not enough of them.

• 1:28:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Then whose fault is that?

• 1:28:25Speaker 07

  Yeah, theirs.

• 1:28:26Patrick Bet-David?

  But, but, but here's what I'm saying. Is the information out there for everybody? Probably more than ever. Don't tell me you don't have an opportunity.

• 1:28:33Speaker 07

  Right.

• 1:28:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Like my kids, if they're going to come to me and talking about, you don't understand. No, no, you don't understand.

• 1:28:38Speaker 07

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:28:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Forget about the, the challenges. Every generation, we're all going to have different challenges. You know, the, the silent generation, which is what? The twenties, right?

• 1:28:47Speaker 07

  Great Depression. Yeah.

• 1:28:48Patrick Bet-David?

  That generation had different problems than the ones, would you, would you rather be your generation or a silent generation? Think about it. The silent generation went through what? Holy moly. You, you're talking about a scary time, food, we're sitting at night, you wouldn't, you've been wearing the same clothes for three years. Break bread. This is your piece, your piece, your piece. Hey guys, I'm just going to try to go make some money today and come back. They found a way. They found a way. Every generation has to face a new crisis that you have to find a way to overcome. You have to find a way to overcome. Claude comes out with Anthropic. Okay, I'll read this to you. Okay, Anthropic said, and what's crazy is it sounds like I'm preaching at him or lecturing him. You guys should see how this guy works.

• 1:29:33Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm not even kidding with you. Why do you think he's the young guy that's on the podcast? Why do I put him on here? You think I put him on here because, you know, I put him on here because he's smart and he works his ass off in the building. He has that reputation. And you know, he has a reputation of a guy that's smart. He's a reader. He's always working on himself. That message is not to you. You're gonna be fine in life. That message is to 26 year old that's listening to you right now. Yes, Brandon is speaking on our behalf. But they don't work as hard as you're working. So they can't sit there and say, you're playing video games and streaming, feeling sorry for yourself. Get off your ass and do something with your life. Yeah. That messaging is evergreen, no matter what the time is. Well, let me read this article. And I'm gonna come to you, especially with you as well on Claude, because I know you got thoughts on this. Yeah. Anthropic says Claude can now use

• 1:30:16Patrick Bet-David?

  your computer to finish tasks for you in AI agent push. All right, so this is CNBC story that we're looking at. And Tom, I'm coming to you because we all want to meet Courtney. It's just, that's what it's come down to. I swear to God, if we don't meet Courtney. Courtney, if you're out there, manect me. I want to know where you are, Courtney. So Anthropic Claude can now use a person's computer, complete tasks as a company looks to create an AI agent that can rival the viral open claw. Users can now message Claude a task from a phone and AI gym will then complete that task. Anthropic announced on Monday, after being prompted, Claude can now open apps on your computer, navigate a web browser, fill in spreadsheets. Anthropic said one prompt Anthropic

• 1:31:02Patrick Bet-David?

  demonstrated in a video post Monday is a user running late for a meeting. The user asked Claude to export a pitch deck as a PDF file in the chat to a meeting invite. The video shows Claude carrying out. Is this the video, Rob? Yes. So we're gonna show that video here in a minute. The Claude carried out the task. Latest update from Anthropic underscores the push from AI firms to create so-called agents that can anonymously, autonomously, carry out tasks on behalf of users at any time. Rob, do you want to show this from the beginning? So, Tom, maybe why don't you narrate over what this is doing right now to explain what's going on?

• 1:31:37Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, what AI is doing is AI is

• 1:31:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Keep playing the clip while Tom is speaking.

• 1:31:40Tom Ellsworth?

  Increasing its ability to do tasks. AI is not sitting there impersonating you, sending an email. Maybe someday it will.

• 1:31:47Patrick Bet-David?

  So what is this doing in the clip? Is it just kind of doing?

• 1:31:49Tom Ellsworth?

  What it's doing is it's doing what you would do. It opened up your calendar.

• 1:31:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Or an assistant.

• 1:31:54Tom Ellsworth?

  It's basically doing what an assistant in the Philippines would do over COVID. No, seriously, over COVID, you could basically give assistance proxy to go do things.

• 1:32:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Start a code task? Did it really say start it? Go back a little bit, Rob? Go back 10 seconds? Look at this here. So start the dev server screenshot, the library page, and send it to me before the demo at 3:00 PM, please. On it, starting a code task to run the dev server and grab the screenshot. Press play?

• 1:32:21Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, so it's saying, take a screenshot of something on my desk and then send that in the in the meeting invitation so people could look at that and we can get on a Zoom together and talk. And so it goes and does the task for you. It'll also open a, hey, open the spreadsheet and put the following numbers into the last column for today's sales and then send me the chart that's on the second tab of the spreadsheet. Boom, that's a task. That's not like managing the sales force for you. So what these tasks are doing and what Claude and what AI agents that you could create with OpenClaw are doing, and that's what Courtney is. Courtney is an AI agent or a replicant that I created with OpenClaw

• 1:33:03Tom Ellsworth?

  on a Amazon EC2 server that I put Ubuntu Linux on, put OpenClaw on it, and then taught her certain skills so that she can do things so that I can get to the brain work and making the decisions, but the gathering of data, assembling it, I get it. Now, I still check it. I still check it very, very carefully. And now what they're saying with Claude is, hey, if you want Claude to do some advanced tasks like open Excel, drop some things in, open my email, attach this and send it. Courtney does that to Rob. Courtney does a news sweep in the morning that I have Right here, it's like, what are Americans reading most based on 30 news outlets in the United States?

• 1:33:46Tom Ellsworth?

  And the number one story of everything was 15-point plan from Iran. It gives all the places that are covering it and how. So that was helpful to us when we think, hey, these are the highest. That's a task. That's a task. So think of, think of the AI agents as doing chores for you so that you can faster get to the work of managing humans around you and making decisions.

• 1:34:10Patrick Bet-David?

  How much are you using Courtney right now?

• 1:34:12Tom Ellsworth?

  Courtney does about, um, probably 15 tasks a day.

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• 1:36:46Patrick Bet-David?

  15 tasks a day.

• 1:36:47Tom Ellsworth?

  Yep.

• 1:36:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Are you comfortable sharing some of them with the public?

• 1:36:50Tom Ellsworth?

  Sure, I do, yeah. I do an email scan in the morning.

• 1:36:55Patrick Bet-David?

  What's the prompt? What do you tell the prompt?

• 1:36:57Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, I've created it as what's called a cron job, a chronological job. So, once I got it right, I say, "Run that job every morning at 7:45 a.m." She goes through all the emails. She looks for anything that's @vt.com and gives me your prioritize, a few other people's prioritize. Tell me what those are. And she'll give it to me in a recording so I can listen to it in the car. Excuse me. So she reads me my email summary in the morning.

• 1:37:26Patrick Bet-David?

  It's a summary, though. It's not reading all the emails.

• 1:37:29Tom Ellsworth?

  No, I can ask that, but I just want the summary. That's one. Second, it says, "When Rob sends the summary for the podcasts or stories, I say, 'Hey, can you compare that to the stories that are hot out there that a lot of people are watching?'"

• 1:37:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:37:46Tom Ellsworth?

  "'Cause we want to give value on the podcast. I want to give value on the podcast." So, I compare the hottest stories versus the ones we scanned. Ah, these 10 are really good. And then we do our prep. It usually overlaps. I also ask I'll say, "Hey, here is a standard spreadsheet that comes out of our sales reporting system. Here, can you, I have a job that's been created. Do as you always do, turn this into bar charts, so I can give this to Pat, so he can easily see the data, and he can have a meeting with sales. Guess what? Now, now, nobody's sitting there for 20 minutes, making that. So, those are the example of tasks.

• 1:38:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Can I say something here? Uh, Tom, if you're comfortable sharing at this point, Adams promoted your age many times. How old are you, Tom?

• 1:38:31Tom Ellsworth?

  I am 63.

• 1:38:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 1:38:33Tom Ellsworth?

  And I look younger, thank you very much, but, sorry ladies, I'm married.

• 1:38:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so 63, married, and his mistress's name is Court, who is not a real person, okay? But, check this out. You're 63 years old. The average, uh, let's go to the 80% of 63-year-olds. What does the 80% of 63-year-olds do? Getting excited for retirement. Get excited for retirement. Yeah, "Two more years", that's what they say. Here's a guy at 63, with all the tasks that he has. The other day, he's at the airport at 3:45 with his daughter, who just went back, and he's ready to come to the podcast, so that means, if he's at the airport at 3:45, what time do you think they got up that day? 2. 2 o'clock, he had a full workday till 9, 10 o'clock at night. Not one complaint about anything.

• 1:39:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Crushed the podcast, goes and is learning how to identify this task. That's what I mean by, at any generation, if Tom was born in any generation, Tom would have been a value add to that society. That's the part. So, what I'm, what I'm trying to say is, don't tell me you're 63 years old, this is for the kids. Don't tell me you're 22 years old, and, "No, this is for the 63-year-olds." No, this is for anybody and everybody. This is for, you take the time to, thank you, Alicia. You take the time to go learn about what's going on. And look at the way Tom just flat-out explained what he's doing with it every day. How much time is that, Tom, how much time is that saving you, from what you put, what you put into this?

• 1:39:58Tom Ellsworth?

  I believe that I've already found about 4 or 5 hours a week, which is huge.

• 1:40:03Patrick Bet-David?

  And how much time did you put into it? Or learn how to do all of it?

• 1:40:07Tom Ellsworth?

  It's, I started with it when it was called, you know, um, you know... Claude Bot, then Molt Bot. So I was in Aspen when we were on vacation, reading about it and creating the primitive basics of it at that time.

• 1:40:21Patrick Bet-David?

  How many total hours into it?

• 1:40:23Tom Ellsworth?

  I probably spent about 40 hours getting it up and going. And then now I've honed it and honed it and honed it.

• 1:40:29Patrick Bet-David?

  80 hours total?

• 1:40:30Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, probably 80, probably a couple hundred because I like to read.

• 1:40:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Perfect. So a couple hundred, but it's giving you back five hours a week. Five hours.

• 1:40:40Tom Ellsworth?

  And quality decisions of what comes out.

• 1:40:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Five hours, better performance, better quality. What is five hours given back to you over five years? Think about that. Five hours every week. That's 50 weeks, 255 years, 1250 hours given back to them. It's pretty cool.

• 1:40:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, it's sick.

• 1:40:56Patrick Bet-David?

  To see that taking place. Barry, are you doing anything?

• 1:40:59Speaker 06

  I'm a fellow baby boomer as well. That's why we were so defensive.

• 1:41:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Both of you look good.

• 1:41:05Tom Ellsworth?

  The two of us were like, you know, wait a second, we're not pillaging anything.

• 1:41:10Tom Ellsworth?

  We didn't rip you off.

• 1:41:12Patrick Bet-David?

  After podcast.

• 1:41:13Speaker 06

  So we use AI a lot in our company and in highway, we use AI a lot. I use AI all the time. Obviously, Pat, you know, I've had a medical challenge that, you know, I'm still still dealing with, but thank God we're in a better place now. But as I, as I went through it, literally, I would, I would talk with, with AI hours a day to try and learn. And what winds up happening.

• 1:41:37Patrick Bet-David?

  For your health.

• 1:41:38Speaker 06

  For health. Yeah, for health. So what wound up happening is that I'd speak with physicians that'll ask me if I were a physician. But you, but you also have to be very careful because I like what Tom said with these agents. And when you use them, they don't always get it right. You have to constantly fine tune and you have to know which questions to ask. You can't accept the responses as okay blindly. That's why I love what he said. I check everything. And that's, that's a big, big part of it. You have to check everything. That's, that's the key.

• 1:42:05Patrick Bet-David?

  I love it. Brandon, are you currently yourself? You're 30. Did you turn 31 or you're 30?

• 1:42:10Speaker 07

  I turned 31.

• 1:42:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. How are you using your language learning models right now while you're building your consulting business?

• 1:42:16Speaker 07

  Yeah, oh no, a ton. Like it's helping with everything. Like you can plug into money.com, you can plug in the Excel sheets, you could, um, like all types of admin tasks.

• 1:42:23Patrick Bet-David?

  How many hours a week do you use language learning models? Hours a week?

• 1:42:27Speaker 07

  Uh, I'd say it's part of my everyday. So probably like cumulatively, like maybe three hours a day I'm interacting with it.

• 1:42:33Patrick Bet-David?

  So 21 hours a week, give or take, every day, including Saturdays and Sundays?

• 1:42:37Speaker 07

  Alright, because yeah, I work every day.

• 1:42:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Got it.

• 1:42:39Speaker 07

  But, um, but yeah, no, definitely it expands the amount of things I'm able to do so much. Like I'm able to probably do like a, a whole day's worth of work within one hour or two hours because of it.

• 1:42:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. And by the way, if you're watching this right now, and I'm just being straight up with you, if, I'm going to give you a challenge, okay? Here's a challenge. If you're watching and saying, holy shit, what did just Tom say? Manectum. Go ahead and manectum. Tom will share that knowledge with you. And by the way, you can cold email people nowadays or DM them and they got thousands of messages. People can't get back to you. But if you pay for it, they'll get back to you. That's the whole purpose of Manectum. Manectum and say, Tom, what are you doing with, uh, Claude and how can I use it for myself? Maybe schedule a call with Tom on Manectum. If you have questions for Brandon or Barry, everybody here is on, uh, uh, Manectum as well, we'll be announcing something

• 1:43:26Patrick Bet-David?

  little bit crazy in a couple of weeks about Manectum that has to do with, uh, has to do with going to the World Cup finals, which are like 30, 40,000 dollar tickets. But anyways, please don't repeat that to anybody else. I'm just sharing it with you. I don't want anybody to know except the five of us that are here together. Uh, watching this and the couple of you that are watching this right now, out there in the YouTube world and Spotify world. Alright, so next story I want to get to.

• 1:43:54Patrick Bet-David?

  The next story is, uh, farmers. This story got me so emotional that I came in on fire yesterday and I brought Tom in, I brought Paul in, I said, guys, I want to share this with you. Rob, do you have that clip of the farmers? If you go to my Twitter account, okay? If you go to my Twitter account, here's what you'll find. Uh, keep going, keep going. It's like the right there, that video. So check this out. Imagine you own a farm that's been passed to you from your family.

• 1:44:23Patrick Bet-David?

  And a family that passed it to you, bless you, grandparents passed down to you, that farm is roughly $6,000 an acre, which will be a total of $2.6 million. And a data center company comes in and offers you 10 times the amount. What do you mean? Not 2.6 million, we'll pay you $26 million. What would you do? Here's what this lady did when they got the $26 million offer. Go for it, Rob.

• 1:44:52Speaker 20

  If it's my way, I'll stay and hold and feed a nation. 26 million doesn't mean anything.

• 1:44:58Speaker 21

  Some people might find it hard to understand how Delcia Bear can turn away a $26 million offer to buy some of her land until you spend a little time with her walking the dirt roads she grew up on and in the house her daddy built.

• 1:45:11Speaker 20

  My grandfather and great-grandfather and a whole bunch of family has all lived here for years, paid taxes on it, fed a nation off of it, even raised wheat through the depression and kept breadlines up in the United States of America when people didn't have anything else.

• 1:45:29Speaker 21

  Delcia is one of dozens of landowners approached by an anonymous buyer, one of the major players in artificial intelligence, likely Google or Meta or Amazon, to purchase their land. The market value for land in Mason County is about $6,000 an acre. The realtor that came to her door last April offered her and her mother about 10 times that.

• 1:45:52Speaker 20

  They call us old stupid farmers, you know, but we're not. We know whenever our food is disappearing, our lands are disappearing, and we don't have any water and poison, we know we've had it.

• 1:46:04Speaker 21

  Delcia's mom, Ida Huddleston, is now 82 years old. She says she does not need the money or the hassle. She was born on this land and she plans to die here, and she certainly does not trust the promises made by the AI companies or the people who want them to build here. So what do you say to the people who are in town that say, hey, this is going to bring jobs, this is going to bring economic prosperity?

• 1:46:30Speaker 20

  I say they're a liar and the truth ain't in them. Is what I say. It's a scam.

• 1:46:36Speaker 21

  For Delcia, scam or not, she says she's connected to her home like Scarlett O'Hara was in Gone with the Wind.

• 1:46:44Speaker 20

  As long as she was attached to that land, her spirit never would die. That's the exact same thing for me right here. As long as I'm on this land, as long as it's feeding me, as long as it's taking care of me, there's nothing can destroy me if I've got this land.

• 1:47:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Ain't that amazing? That's cool. Ain't that amazing? Ain't that kind of emotional, right? When you watch it? Wow. Right? You know, I watched this multiple times and it reminded me of something. You know, back in the days, there was a Paul Harvey, okay? And Paul Harvey told a story one time about the farmer. Rob, I send it to you. This is one of the most, I don't know why, it's one of the most emotional videos you'll listen to on how it ends. I brought Tom in. Tom and I are literally sitting in my office and Tom is asking himself, why the hell is Pat showing me a video of farming? Are we about to go into the farm business? Are we going to turn our, you know, 11 acre property into a farm? Are we now all of a sudden going to see cows and stuff like that and animals? I mean, I'm sure Vinnie would like the animals. Are we going to do that? I said, no, just watch this video to the

• 1:47:46Patrick Bet-David?

  end because I have some thoughts. I'm thinking about something. Watch this message, this sermon from Paul Harvey decades ago on farmers. Go ahead, Rob.

• 1:47:57Speaker 22

  And on the eighth day, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, I need a caretaker. So God made a farmer. God said, I need somebody willing to get up before dawn, milk cows, work all day in the fields, milk cows again, eat supper, then go to town and stay past midnight at a meeting of the school board. So God made a farmer. I need somebody with arms strong enough to wrestle a calf and yet gentle enough to deliver his own grandchild. Somebody to call hogs, tame cantankerous machinery, come home hungry, have to wait lunch until his wife's done feeding visiting ladies, then tell the ladies to be sure and come back real soon and mean it. So God made a farmer. God said, I need

• 1:48:42Speaker 22

  somebody willing to sit up all night with a newborn colt and watch it die, then dry his eyes and say, maybe next year.

• 1:48:51Speaker 22

  I need somebody who can shape an ax handle from a persimmon sprout, shoe a horse with a hunk of car tire, who can make harness out of haywire feed sacks and shoe scraps, who planting time and harvest season will finish his forty hour week by Tuesday noon and then pain in from tractor back put in another seventy-two hours. So God made a farmer.

• 1:49:11Speaker 22

  God had to have somebody willing to ride the ruts at double speed to get the hay in ahead of the rain clouds and yet stop in midfield and race to help when he sees the first smoke from a neighbor's place. So God made a farmer.

• 1:49:25Speaker 22

  God said, "I need somebody strong enough to clear trees and heave bales, yet gentle enough to yean lambs and wean pigs and tend the pink-combed pullets who will stop his mower for an hour to splint the broken leg of a meadow lark." It had to be somebody who'd plow deep and straight and not cut corners, somebody to seed, weed, feed, breed, and rake and disc and plow and plant and tie the fleece and strain the milk and replenish the self feeder and finish a hard week's work with a five-mile drive to church. Somebody who'd bale a family together with a soft, strong bonds of sharing, who would laugh and then sigh and then reply with smiling eyes when his son says that he wants to spend his life

• 1:50:11Speaker 22

  doing what dad does.

• 1:50:15Speaker 22

  So God made a farmer.

• 1:50:17Patrick Bet-David?

  Wow. Wow. Is that not powerful? Wow. Is that not amazing? Rob, send me that, please. That's crazy. Is that not amazing? It's beautiful, Harvey. You know, there's something about farmers that's emotional. I don't know what it is. You know, to me, I'm convinced God's favorite sport is baseball. I think he watches baseball. And and a part of baseball for me is when you think about the movie with Kevin Costner. The what is it called the Field of Dreams? Yeah. And they're on that farm and you know, shoeless Joe Jackson comes out and every night they're out there. It's like this can't be real. I'm telling you, people are gonna come and they start showing up and

• 1:50:59Patrick Bet-David?

  just a good old, you know, you and I sit there and we eat the chicken or we eat this and we don't think about it. You know, where did the steak come from? Where did the chicken come from? Like, oh, you, how do they do it? What do they do? It's because of farmers. And and the fact that you hear, so there's, it's funny because we went from all AI. What Courtney is doing, what Anthropic is doing, what Claude is doing. But to me, I would prefer to talk to human beings every single day and not have to talk to these language learning models. I prefer team human. I prefer people. I prefer us going, I don't think people realize, truly, if you work here, Tom, Brandon, Rob,

• 1:51:41Patrick Bet-David?

  guys in the back that are doing their thing, Justin, how often do we run podcasts? All day we're running a podcast. It's it's always like this. We're always talking like this. What do you think about this? What do you think? Well, here's what I would do and it's constant debate back and forth. You know why? I love human beings, man. I love people. I I love, it's not even close. All these tools that are out there, we gotta use it to be competitive. But at the end of the day, there is something so beautiful about what a farmer does that an AI language learning model will never, ever get my heart the way a farmer gets my heart. Something about it, something about it.

• 1:52:25Patrick Bet-David?

  When you see that, Tom, your thoughts?

• 1:52:27Tom Ellsworth?

  You know, I I think that in an age of technology and everything that's out there, you know, it grows up around you and everything that's that's going on. And and sometimes you miss, you can miss the human side of it.

• 1:52:43Tom Ellsworth?

  And Paul Harvey, I remember listening to Paul Harvey. I was in, um, I was in college and, um,

• 1:52:52Tom Ellsworth?

  I would go over my, go over to see my grandma like twice a week, um, around, right around lunchtime, just to check on her and say hi. Never mind she'd made lunch, you know, and I'm a college student, I'm broke. And she'd be listening to news and on AM radio in LA and Paul Harvey used to come on at noon on AM radio in LA. And I would hear him in his common sense tone and it was just the human tone. And then I see this and I see the images that are put with it and it's, and it's like, you know, have we lost it? Have we lost that humanness? Has the anonymity of the internet allowed people to be just so intense with their words that they've lost the human side of it?

• 1:53:34Tom Ellsworth?

  And so when I, I see that, I just think of the human side and it's like, wow, you know, how much more can we, you know, you know, calibrate, you know, to the human side, you know, that's what I love about baseball games. I love going to baseball games because you're sitting around a lot of other people. Well, but you're also sitting around other people, right? And you're forced to sit really close to the other. So you meet somebody and you talk to somebody.

• 1:53:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Would you rather sit next to other people or Courtney?

• 1:54:01Tom Ellsworth?

  Uh, no.

• 1:54:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Can you imagine if like the anthropic is sitting next to you? So Courtney, what's the most likely result that this game's going to end up with? This is probably going to end up being a score of four, two, where the pitcher will have nine strikeouts. What a boring conversation. Can you imagine that? No. I want to talk to a human being that's going to make a mistake, that's emotional, that's acts dumb, says dumb things at times, you know, and sometimes you get it right, you get it, wow, that was a great point. And, you know, you want that feeling. What COVID did to us was what? What COVID did to us is just tell us, no matter, the most annoying thing in the world, which is a human being, is also the thing we love the most. We missed it. How

• 1:54:45Patrick Bet-David?

  you doing, man? Remember it's like you're hugging, you hugged in a different way. It was like a hug like bodybuilder hugs. Like, man, how you doing? Man, what's this? You're a human being. This is cool. I'm seeing other people. You wanted to go to restaurants. There's other people here, man. This is so great. It was a very weird thing. But I think as we're going this next direction.

• 1:55:05Patrick Bet-David?

  There was a guy in LA, Tom, you may remember this guy from the church. He was a felon. He went to prison for many years. And he looked like a felon. And he talked like a felon. And when I mean like a felon, I'm talking tatted up, probably on TRT, juiced up, but on fire with Jesus. Okay? And just sincere. And he came up with a very weird idea. Here's what his idea was. He worked for a junkyard when he got out of prison because nobody would hire him. And he made a promise to himself that he's going to build a company that 100% of all his hires are what? Ex-felons, ex-cons. 100%.

• 1:55:48Patrick Bet-David?

  So he goes, he saves the money that he makes working at this junkyard and he buys a junkyard later on. And he's got like a hundred or something employees. They're doing 27, 28 million a year. Guess what they are? Every one of them was a felon. And he says, look, I'm team second chances. Because I understand. You know what I think's going to happen? I think we're going to experience that in the future where some companies are like, we hire human beings. Can you imagine? It's going to be like, look, I know it's not the popular thing to do is 2052 or 2048. Think about what 2048 is going to be like. We're in 2026. What is 2048 going to look like?

• 1:56:25Speaker 06

  You know, the woman in the podcast was, said something that I was, a lot of what she said obviously struck a chord. But the fact that, you know, food and water. You take the, take this land for data centers. Understand the profit motive, but where's food and water going to come from if that just continues to get eaten up? So, I mean, she said, God bless this woman. I mean, she really.

• 1:56:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Innocent.

• 1:56:52Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 1:56:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:56:53Speaker 06

  Yeah, and you know, I don't know how many people could turn down that type of money with that type of belief and conviction. You know, think of, think of, you know, most of us, if we're honest, that's, it's a hard thing to turn down and have that type of. of moral compass that this woman has so you know it's wonderful to see.

• 1:57:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, I agree.

• 1:57:12Speaker 06

  Inspirational.

• 1:57:13Patrick Bet-David?

  Some people would say 26 million is not what it used to be, but Brandon, what do you think about it?

• 1:57:17Speaker 07

  Um, yeah, I'll say you converted me a little bit because I there the last couple of years I was kind of hard on the farmers and I was all team um vertical farming and desalination and whatnot talking about how irrigation is inefficient, but uh you're totally right. Um, you know, farming is a beautiful thing and it's like the.

• 1:57:32Patrick Bet-David?

  It's like it's like church, man.

• 1:57:34Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 1:57:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Going to a good church.

• 1:57:35Speaker 07

  Interacting with the world, you know, interacting with living things all that.

• 1:57:38Patrick Bet-David?

  It's so beautiful, man. If you if you're a farmer out there, I just want to say thank you.

• 1:57:43Speaker 07

  Mm hmm.

• 1:57:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Honestly, thank you. You know how we walk, at least when you go into the airport and you see a man in uniform, what can you say? Thank you for your service. Unfortunately, we don't have a uniform farmers wear for us to say thank you for your service, but truly, I want to say thank you to you. You're so important for society. You're doing God's work. Can you imagine how important you're you're doing God's work and we're all grateful for you.

• 1:58:10Speaker 06

  Amen.

• 1:58:11Patrick Bet-David?

  May you have protection to continue doing what you're doing. The legacy left behind you with your father, your grandfather, your grandmother, all of them. Um, very important, very important what you're doing. Okay, let's go to the next story. Uh, next story I want to get into before we wrap up. I got a couple of angles I want to go with. I'm trying to see which one to go with. Uh, let's go with this one here. Interesting thing with, it's funny, we went AI, now we went farmers, now we're going robots. Okay, we're gonna throw you off today. This is when robots don't work. So a restaurant robot goes crazy that literally has a leash on, the owner or the worker has a leash on, that they had to take this robot away. And we're like, hey, man, customers were starting to freak out because how this robot was dancing like it's doing some stuff.

• 1:58:57Patrick Bet-David?

  You just have to see it to believe it, Rob. Is this it?

• 1:59:00Speaker 07

  Yes, sir.

• 1:59:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so this is like the robot going around. Imagine you're like at a Chipotle or a restaurant and you're doing your thing and this guy's walking around, wait a minute, who's this robot? Good. This is a taste of what the future looks like. Go ahead, Rob. Let's hear it.

• 1:59:13Speaker 10

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• 2:00:22Patrick Bet-David?

  She can't even stop it. Oh, the leash.

• 2:00:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Press a button to stop dancing. Look at this. That's crazy. There's two people now, three people. You got three people that can't stop this robot. It's all fun and games now. That's right, until they're everywhere. Ripping your arms off, yeah. Team human, baby. She's trying to put a stop to it and she's screwing up the dance moves. It's like a drone, let me control it.

• 2:00:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Just turn it off, that red button. Can you find the red button? It's like you want to end zoom or mute. Can't find the end button. So this robot is just going at it, I'm good. What's stopping from smashing somebody over the head? Nothing. Yeah. Nothing. It's a human being pressing the end button. So now imagine, put 50 million of these guys in the world. Strongest military. Whoever controls it. Whoever's independent has the strongest... You can pause it right there. Barry, when you see this, what's your initial reaction?

• 2:01:20Speaker 06

  You know, all this stuff is really in its infancy. What I think about is, what's it going to be like 10 years from now? Five years from now, 20 years from now? What? What difference will we see in the world that it's just going to be? Because the acceleration of it, I mean, we all know like, you know, Moore's law. But I think that this is even at a different scale, how fast AI has developed. You know, Tom and I remember when we were kids, like a big innovation, we had a microwave oven. That was a big thing, you know, so. But but to see innovation happen and robotics. I was in a restaurant the other day, it wasn't a robot like that, but a little robot that brings your food out. Which, you know, it kind of surprised me a little bit, I could see this thing.

• 2:02:04Speaker 06

  It just brings your food out and stops with your.

• 2:02:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Is it in Florida?

• 2:02:07Speaker 06

  In Florida, at the airport.

• 2:02:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, wow.

• 2:02:09Speaker 06

  At the airport, it was at Boe Campers Airport at the JetBlue Terminal. So, little robot. And here's your food. I was like, wow, man.

• 2:02:19Patrick Bet-David?

  By the way, that's coming to everybody. So we're gonna one day go out and you're all of a sudden gonna be, remember the day ChatGPT was dropped?

• 2:02:28Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 2:02:28Patrick Bet-David?

  And how life changed the way every business was being here like, wait a minute, this was a dramatic change. All of a sudden, we're gonna go everywhere and you're gonna see these guys, you know. Tom may actually have Courtney become the robot that's walking around the office. Tom, robot, when you see this, how do you react to it?

• 2:02:44Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, um, so there's, this is humanoid, obviously. I look at that and I wonder, you know.

• 2:02:54Tom Ellsworth?

  How many small jobs, how many warehouse jobs, how many delivery, you know, and all that goes away. And what is that, what does that slice of society do? You know, it's kind of, it's kind of, you know, it's comical to see this. But then I think about the second thing, the security hack, you know. You security hack and now you shut down a company's ability to do work and to ship. So I see two sides of it. One, things are gonna get quick and efficient, thanks to the robots. Second, you know, there's new levels of security, new levels of risk for businesses that depend on them. And then it's like, you know, I remember.

• 2:03:35Tom Ellsworth?

  You know, jobs I had and except the summer I worked in construction, you know, you know, I worked, I worked in a steakhouse, in a high-end steakhouse. I was a chef's assistant. And it's like, do those, does that job go away? Is there, is there that job in the future? If somebody wanted to do that. So I kind of think of that as like entry level and basic jobs. And what happens to that? All the, all the tasks. If all you do is a task and it's repetitive, look out.

• 2:04:05Speaker 07

  Yeah, well, that's probably not a good use of the, the time of humans. I mean, you know, you could really make anything a job that shouldn't be a job, like the Milton Friedman example of, of, so why don't you just like use, have people use spoons to dig holes if you're trying to just give people jobs. But, um, so I think that'll be fine. That's happened a bunch of times where like half the job market's been replaced by technology. And, um, you know, there's different timelines of how fast it sells itself out. But I think, um, new things that we aren't even thinking of right now will present themselves as jobs. But what I'm still scared of is even more so than the hacking aspect of is the robots like, you know, getting hacked and then just running around ripping people's arms and legs off and, you know, taking over. Cause I, I don't know, that thing like they couldn't even hold that thing back. That's a tiny robot. Like, uh, I don't, I don't know why people are comfortable having them in their houses and the restaurants.

• 2:04:50Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, they're going to be.

• 2:04:51Speaker 07

  It's crazy to me.

• 2:04:52Tom Ellsworth?

  They're going to be.

• 2:04:53Speaker 06

  Brandon, that's what I was talking about. It's like, what is this like in the future? It's like, you know, like the singularity. What if they start thinking for themselves?

• 2:04:59Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 2:05:00Speaker 06

  And what if the, I don't know. It either just takes some programming or maybe they learn it themselves. And then there's potentially malicious aspect of it.

• 2:05:08Speaker 07

  Yeah. I'm not like, I mean, I don't, I'm not a regulation guy, but I don't know. Should it be regulated? I'm, I don't like the idea of something like much stronger than me just like operating freely around me, you know? It's like, um,

• 2:05:20Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, don't get married.

• 2:05:29Speaker 07

  Oh, man. Um, but yeah, no, I, I, I don't, I don't feel good about it. Uh, I think there should be some regulation and like, we were talking about regulating AI a couple of years ago, but everybody stopped talking about that.

• 2:05:38Tom Ellsworth?

  The problem is, is the following.

• 2:05:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Because you know what the world is becoming? A smaller place. Yeah. If you think about it. Mm-hmm. And so if I'm the leader of the free world and I'm in US and other countries are not following the same regulation as me and you're building robots, I don't have a choice but to build robots. Yeah. I fall behind. I don't have a choice but to build robots. As a matter of fact, guess what I have to do? Be better and faster. Build it even faster, bigger and better. Mm-hmm. This is just the reality, what direction we're going to. And, and you're going to see, I'm telling you, you're going to see, I'm, I am so convinced of this. In 30 years, I'm gonna be how old? 77 years old.

• 2:06:22Patrick Bet-David?

  In 30 years, um, you're gonna see societies that are saying, this is 100% human society. Yeah. And people are gonna be like, no way. Hmm. Let's go to such and such ranch, or such and such city, and such and such veil. Mm-hmm. And you go in and everybody is people. Yeah. A small little city, 5,000, 50,000. And you're like, I kinda like this. You're gonna see how much we're gonna miss the days where it's 100% people. You will see. At the end of the day, AI, robots, they're ice cold, no emotions. We have something emotion. It's gonna go back to nostalgic times where it was just,

• 2:07:07Patrick Bet-David?

  remember back in the days when it was us, just the people? That's how you're gonna reminisce. Yeah. It's gonna be such a weird thing to reminisce about. And those cities are gonna be like, listen, man, if you're coming over here, you can't do this, you can't do this, you can't do this, because we just wanna be human beings. Mm-hmm. We just wanna be regular people. I think there, there's gonna be that, but then at the same time, these other guys who have the robots are gonna impose their powers to say, you don't have a choice but to listen to what we have to tell you. It is gonna be a very different war.

• 2:07:33Speaker 07

  Yeah, scary who controls them, the idea of who controls the robots.

• 2:07:36Patrick Bet-David?

  It's, it's a part of it is, you know, part of it is controlling it long term. Let's do one last story.

• 2:07:42Speaker 06

  You can see the police force, by the way, being totally robotic.

• 2:07:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Holy, did you, by the way, did you guys watch that movie, uh, uh, uh, what's the other movie I talked about, Rob? Not the one that just came out with Ryan Gosling? That one's called, um, Project Hail Mary or Operation Hail Mary. If you haven't seen that, go watch it.

• 2:07:59Tom Ellsworth?

  About thirty years ago, Robocop?

• 2:08:00Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no, no, this movie that came out with Mercy. Mercy. I'm, guys, two movies this weekend. I'm not executive producer on this. I'm not gonna get paid. Go watch one of these two movies. Watch Mercy or watch, uh, Hail Mary. Mercy's the best example of what AI is gonna be doing. A judge, where you're gonna go to court and you have ninety minutes to explain to the judge that you did not commit a murder. The movie Mercy, highly recommend this weekend. Go watch it. You'll see why. You'll thank me later. Do we wanna do one last story, Tom? This last story I got is, uh, about taxes. Do we do that? Tax the rich or kill some, kill income taxes?

• 2:08:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Or do we do tech exec accused of smuggling Nvidia chips to China resigns from the board? You wanna do that one? Taxes?

• 2:08:51Speaker 06

  We did so, so much AI stuff.

• 2:08:52Patrick Bet-David?

  So let's do taxes. Tax the rich or kill income taxes. States are divided on what to do. This is a barren story. Couple of days ago and it's not, I mean, it's truly what's going on right now. Some states just wanna tax the crap out of you and some states are saying like DeSantis, who was on Hannity yesterday and Hannity asked him, are you gonna be running in twenty twenty? He says, I don't know. So of course you have to run. It's just get a better marketing campaign. But, you know, for him, he wants to get rid of, uh, property taxes.

• 2:09:20Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 2:09:20Patrick Bet-David?

  So here's a story. Let me read it to you. Page twenty-one. Oh, I'm sorry. It says page twenty-one, but it's not on page, oh, page ten. So page ten, tax the rich. Or kill income taxes. Let's go to this.

• 2:09:32Speaker 06

  While you're pulling it, while you're pulling it up, Pat, you know, we talk a lot about housing affordability, the price of the home as well as interest rates, right? But a huge chunk of that is the enormous rise we've seen in insurance costs and property taxes. And that's part of the affordability problem that no one talks about.

• 2:09:49Patrick Bet-David?

  It's true. It is very true. So let me read this to you. U.S. states are heading in a different direction on tax policy reflecting diverging views of wealth and economic growth. California has grabbed headlines with a proposed ballot initiative for a one-time 5% tax net worth on billionaires. On March 11, Washington state passed a millionaire tax on personal income above a million and expanded the tax credit for low-income families. Maine, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are among several other states where proposal exists to boost tax on the wealthiest residents. New York City, Maldani, has also stirred debate with a proposed 2 percentage point increase in the city's income taxes for those that make over $1 million. At the same time, South Carolina, Georgia, and Missouri are seeking to cut personal income tax.

• 2:10:32Patrick Bet-David?

  A year after Oklahoma and Mississippi created a plan to eliminate personal income tax altogether to spur economic growth and attract businesses to their states, that some states governed largely by Republicans are cutting taxes to spur growth, while those governed largely by Democrats are raising them to pay public services. It's a century-old trend, Matt Gardner, senior fellow at Nonpartisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy said. Barry, thoughts on this?

• 2:10:56Speaker 06

  What works throughout history, you know, overtax, I mean, you know, it just doesn't work because you're going to lose your, and you're already losing some of the more desirable individuals you have there. Sure, some level of taxation may be appropriate, but if you overtax, you're going to wind up on the losing end of this. There's, there's only so much of this that you could do. And it's easy to stay in power and it's easy to vote for it because the majority of people are going to vote. It goes, oh, that doesn't affect me. You know, I don't make that much money or this and that. So it's easy to vote for it, but the effects that they don't realize, again, it is a, a... Age-old problem, and it's an age-old debate. But the reason why you have to have a balance is because if you do too much taxation,

• 2:11:41Speaker 06

  you will wind up increasing the burden and reducing the quality of life to those who are left behind.

• 2:11:46Tom Ellsworth?

  Tom, you know, what's really interesting, I love state budgets as a topic to discuss. Because in the United States, a state budget, there's a sense of truth to it. Because states can't run deficits. At the end of the year, they gotta sell bonds, they gotta do something, they gotta balance it, they gotta find the money somewhere. If they've had a natural disaster, or hurricane, Florida, earthquake in California, you can get federal relief dollars. But at the end of the day, you gotta balance the budget. So if you promise this, and you do this, now you have to tax. And if you tax, you get the outcome. People don't understand it.

• 2:12:26Tom Ellsworth?

  If you talk to the average person, they, most people are in favor of very reasonable taxes. Because they like shiny fire trucks that are in good condition, firemen, police, streetlights at work, streets without potholes, and sewage systems that actually flow. Americans are all very in favor of this. And you know, it takes taxes to do those, to do those basic things. And a public park for people to walk their dogs, they understand. But the rest of it is when it comes down to, you decide to win the vote, you're gonna promise free, and then the other guy's gotta pay for it, and then the other guy leaves. Because guess what? You have to balance the state budget. So now you gotta go get bonds, and you can't get them.

• 2:13:10Tom Ellsworth?

  Do you think Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island want to raise the taxes coming up in election year? No, they don't. They know they're about to get a cold bucket of water in the face. They know what's gonna happen, but they got no choice. And they have to go with the tax the rich. And that has to be the angle that they're pushing. So, guess what? Every action has a consequence and a reaction. And right now, you're seeing states raise taxes and lose.

• 2:13:42Patrick Bet-David?

  I love this system, man. I have so much respect for these founding fathers. If only federal government worked. That created it the way they did, that you have options. If you're sitting in a state that's destroying you with taxes, you got 49 other options. Where do you want to go? Pick and choose.

• 2:13:57Speaker 06

  Pat, this brings up a much bigger issue that, you know, we know that within six years, you're going to have a mandatory 23% cut in social security benefits. That's just mandatory unless something changes. But if you've looked, and there's charts, I don't know if you could find it, Rob, where you have inflows and outflows of government money. So the inflows are approximately, you know, five trillion. The outflows are approximately seven trillion. Probably no more precise numbers, but that's a round ballpark number. And if you say, okay, so how do I balance the budget? What can I do? If you look at the areas that you could cut, you have to pay interest on the debt, which is pretty much as big as social security is. Now, do you touch social security? That's a third rail. Do you touch the healthcare portion?

• 2:14:42Speaker 06

  It becomes very difficult. And the portions that are remaining out there, there's really not that much where you could cut. This is the sad state of affairs that we are in. It's easy to talk about it, but it's a very, very difficult way to balance it. I think that social security, we have to think about something like this. You got it, Rob. Perfect. You could see healthcare, interest on the debt, social security. This may be an old chart from 2024. Interest on the debt has gone up clearly since then.

• 2:15:10Tom Ellsworth?

  It will be a trillion this year, and it'll be above defense spending for the first time ever.

• 2:15:13Speaker 06

  That's right.

• 2:15:14Tom Ellsworth?

  And those two will be 25% of the total budget.

• 2:15:16Speaker 06

  That's right.

• 2:15:17Speaker 07

  It's weird how they snapped on Musk when he started going after the fraud. Because I mean, there is some fraud to be found here that could narrow it down. But it sounds like he got really scared when he was poking around with the social security fraud.

• 2:15:26Speaker 06

  Yeah. Now, and one of the things you can do, there's a calculator that you can go on where you could kind of try and balance or extend social security. The biggest one that we have to consider is extending the age of where you start getting benefits. I mean, you can't shock the system.

• 2:15:42Speaker 07

  Yes, no brainer.

• 2:15:42Speaker 06

  But you have to phase into that, right? Because otherwise, we're definitely heading down a bad path here. And people just have to. Suck it up and say, okay, you know, the only way the system works is if we delay some of those benefits a little bit longer. People are living longer. You talked about the age of, of.

• 2:15:59Patrick Bet-David?

  New Yorkers, fifty eight point eight.

• 2:16:01Speaker 06

  Yeah, you know, some of that is just because people are living longer. And also, there's another story, Pat, that you see median age of a first time home buyer. There's some discrepancies there. The media picked up on the forty years old. That's one survey. And that's, there's problems with that one. It's a hundred and twenty question survey. A lot of young people aren't going to do that. Low response rate. And it also will count you as a first time home buyer if you owned a home, rented, and then owned a home again. So that's skewed. It's probably closer to thirty four, thirty five, but that's a little above the historical average. So we have to address in realistic terms these issues. Tom and I were saying the same thing. Some level of taxation is appropriate, but you can't just spend crazy.

• 2:16:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Recklessly.

• 2:16:43Speaker 06

  Recklessly.

• 2:16:44Patrick Bet-David?

  It's a very weird thing they're doing. It's, it's, by the way, here's, here's all it is. Increasing taxes, if you're for it, you think the government can do a better job than free market and people. That's all it is. You think money going to them, they're better with that money than free market. Brandon, I'll give you final thoughts here.

• 2:17:04Speaker 07

  Yeah, I mean, it's, it's pretty straightforward with, with the impact of in state income taxes like Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts. They used to be great places, but when you put state income taxes in, it decimates the incentive to own a business. And that money doesn't even go towards productive things. Like, look at California. I think they get like two hundred and fifty billion dollars a year in state income taxes. And somehow they're always short of money for, you know, highway projects, for homelessness, for healthcare, for their, their, everybody talks about the California pension system as being the number one, uh, that's most likely to go down. They're going to have to get bailed out, which is crazy. So don't know where all that money goes. And I mean, Florida only gets fifty billion for, um, from the sales tax and, and like all the cumulative taxes for the state. And somehow we're cruising along fine with everything that we need. So.

• 2:17:48Speaker 07

  I don't know, called me crazy, but maybe some of that money is going towards things it shouldn't go to in California.

• 2:17:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, DeSantis said, our real estate revenue went from 30 billion to, I don't know what the number was, a massive number in the last five years. He said, it doubled. And I said, we didn't do anything different. It just went up. So you mean to tell me that's the right thing to do? I don't agree with it. So I kind of... What DeSantis is doing, man, I mean, he is, as a governor and the way he thinks, he's a phenomenal governor.

• 2:18:15Speaker 07

  Yes.

• 2:18:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Phenomenal governor on what he's done. Yeah, property income tax revenue went from 31 billion to now 60 billion. He says, we don't need that additional 30 billion. A rise in 20 billion dollars from 19 to 24. Forget about what it is in 2026. What are you doing with that 30 billion? He said, why do we need it?

• 2:18:32Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 2:18:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Why do we need it? Why don't we just give it back to the people? If you're living here, you say it's your house, you've paid it off. Why are we still taxing you? That doesn't make any sense. So I like the way he thinks. We'll see what happens.

• 2:18:43Speaker 06

  One thing on the, first of all, the tax thing that is absolutely fantastic, but what we were talking about just a moment ago. What was your point that you just made a moment ago?

• 2:18:55Speaker 07

  The fraud and the deficit spending or the, what the money actually gets spent on?

• 2:19:00Patrick Bet-David?

  California taxes.

• 2:19:02Speaker 07

  Yeah, where they shelling out those hundreds of billions.

• 2:19:05Speaker 06

  Yeah, I lost my train of thought on that.

• 2:19:08Speaker 07

  Oh, the pension system.

• 2:19:09Speaker 06

  We were talking about the pension system. It was another point I wanted to make, but it's okay. We covered it well.

• 2:19:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, all good. Well, gang, Friday, I will not be doing a podcast, but there will be a podcast and somebody will be sitting in. So for some of you guys that are wondering, you know, if Adam and his significant other are going to be on or not, on Friday, Adam will be on the podcast, not his significant other, but he'll be on with Tom and with Vinny and a person that has agreed to come in, do my job as a host on Friday, will be the one and only Sean Hannity. So Sean will be the one that is the sitting host for the podcast on Friday, the one and only great Sean Hannity Friday. So there will be a podcast.

• 2:19:56Patrick Bet-David?

  So if you want to come in and read the commentary on what's going to be happening, I'm running an event at Sales Leadership Summit at the Doral. Those of you guys that are coming, I can't wait to see all of you guys there. Right after this, we're we're headed to our events. We're looking forward to seeing you guys there, but enjoy. This weekend, I won't be with you. I'll be with you on Monday, but definitely do not miss the show on Friday. Barry, thanks for coming on. Tom, great commentary today, guys, everybody. Brandon, Manek, any one of them, if you got value and you have questions for them. God bless everybody. Take care. Bye bye, bye bye.

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