#632 Bitcoin Supply Shock w/ Will Clemente

Will Clemente is a Finance Major at East Carolina University. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various onchain analytics. Subscribe to Will’s new email newsletter here: https://btcbywc3.substack.com/ In this conversation, we discuss the supply squeeze, strong hands buying, dormancy looking better, and what happens when bitcoin broke $42,000. ======================= Gemini is a leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange, wallet, and custodian that makes it simple and secure to buy, sell, store, and earn bitcoin, ether, and over 40 other cryptocurrencies. Offering industry-leading security, insurance and uptime, Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. Open a free account in under 3 minutes at gemini.com/pomp and get $20 of bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within 30 days. ======================= Do you have a business idea you’ve been dreaming about, but don’t know how to actually start building it? Use Bubble’s drag-and-drop tool to develop custom, interactive, multi-user web apps in hours. Go to Bubble.io to build, launch, and scale real ideas and products without engineers or code! Bubble is the go-to no-code platform for over 1 million builders, and has recently closed a $100M funding round to continue supporting startups like yours, from MVP to IPO. Go to Bubble.io/pomp and the first 500 listeners will get their first month free on any of Bubble’s paid plans. ======================= Polymarket is the world’s leading information markets platform where you can trade on the most pressing global questions and see unbiased, real-time data on what the market thinks will happen – all on the blockchain. For a limited time, sign up with referral code “Pomp” to get your first trade reimbursed up to $100. Click on the link to get started: polymarket.co/pomppod

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off.

• 0:11Anthony Pompliano?

  Will Clemente is a finance major at East Carolina University. He's quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things Bitcoin, including deep dives on various on-chain analytics. You can subscribe to Will's new email by clicking on the link in the description that I've provided. In this conversation, we discuss the supply squeeze, strong hands buying, dormancy looking better, and what happens when Bitcoin broke $42,000. I really enjoyed this conversation with Will, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up is Gemini. They're a leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange, wallet, and custodian that makes it simple and secure to buy, sell, store, and earn Bitcoin, Ether, and over 40 other cryptocurrencies.

• 0:52Anthony Pompliano?

  They offer industry-leading security, insurance, and uptime. Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. You can open a free account in under three minutes at Gemini.com/pomp and get $20 of Bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within the first 30 days. Again, you can open a free account in under three minutes at Gemini.com/pomp and you'll get $20 of Bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within the first 30 days. Go check it out. Next up is Polymarket, the world's leading information markets platform, where you can trade on the most pressing global questions, all on the blockchain. You can choose from a variety of markets. Will Cardano support smart contracts by October? Will the US have more than 100,000 COVID cases before 2022? Will Trump run for president? With over $100

• 1:36Anthony Pompliano?

  million traded in the first year, Polymarket is the go-to platform to settle the biggest debates of the day. Think you know more than the market? Trade on your beliefs and earn a return if you're right. Want tomorrow's news today? Use Polymarket to see real-time data on what the market thinks will happen. No fake news, no pundits without skin in the game. So head over to Polymarket.com and make an account today. For a limited time, if you sign up with the referral code Pomp to get your first trade reimbursed up to 100 bucks. Again, go click on Polymarket.co/pompod or use the referral code Pomp.

• 2:10Anthony Pompliano?

  When you sign up for an account and you'll get your very first trade up to $100 reimbursed by the platform, go check it out at polymarket.co. Last but not least is Bubble. Do you have a business idea you've been dreaming about but don't know how to actually start building it? Use Bubble's drag and drop tool to develop custom, interactive, multi-user web apps in hours. Go to bubble.io to build, launch, and scale real ideas and products without engineers or code. Bubble is the go-to no-code platform for over 1 million builders and has recently closed a $100 million funding round to continue supporting startups like yours, from MVP to IPO. Go to bubble.io/pomp and the first 500 listeners will get their first month free on any of Bubble's paid plans.

• 2:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Again, bubble.io/pomp and the first 500 listeners get their first month free on any of the paid plans. Bubble's awesome, I think you'll really enjoy it, so make sure you go check it out. All right, let's get into this episode with Will. You guys enjoy this one.

• 3:06Speaker 02

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 3:29Anthony Pompliano?

  Will is here. Will, what's up, man?

• 3:31Speaker 03

  Hey, brother, what's going on?

• 3:33Anthony Pompliano?

  Not much.

• 3:34Speaker 03

  Getting ready to head back to school this afternoon, so I'm stoked.

• 3:36Anthony Pompliano?

  Let's go.

• 3:37Speaker 03

  Have a good weekend.

• 3:38Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, Will is going back to school. I feel like everyone forgets all the time that you still have like another life outside of Bitcoin. But what no one is gonna forget is you got that sweatshirt on, the day one Best Business Show hoodie. Absolutely love to see it. All right, let's jump into on-chain metrics, and I think kind of the first takeaway really is just accumulation still is showing to be really, really strong across all these different metrics, right?

• 4:04Speaker 03

  Yeah, for sure. You know, obviously, this is something that I've been looking at for a while, but you know, there's a couple of different ways we can break this down. For a while, we had just been looking at the liquid supply shock ratio, and what that is, it's essentially a ratio of the amount of Bitcoin held by strong hands compared to weak hands, or as Glassnode puts it, a liquid and liquid and highly liquid entities. But you know, just for layman's terms, just saying strong and weak hands, I think is pretty sufficient. So that's one way to look at it, more of like a... A qualitative way to look at like where the coins are moving, right? And so when you look at this ratio, I mean, it's been moving up pretty strong over the last, you know, two, three weeks as we've been covering, but it's now at what previously marked Bitcoin

• 4:49Speaker 03

  at price levels of 55 to 57K. So I still think like this still hasn't fully been priced in yet, although we have been starting to see it, you know, get priced in over the last two weeks. Um, next we have the, uh, the exchange supply shock ratio. So, um, all the previous was, was more of like a qualitative way to look at the supply shortage. This is more of a, uh, you know, quantitative way, just literally looking at the amount of coins that are available to be bought versus the amount that aren't. So the amount of coins that are on exchanges versus, um, you know, measured against the, the overall circulating supply. Um, and so, you know, you're seeing an uptick in this, um, as well. And then third, we have the, uh, long-term holder supply shock ratio.

• 5:31Speaker 03

  This is, uh, very similar to the liquid supply, but this is looking at, um, the ratio of coins held by long-term holders versus short-term. Um, and so the, the ratio that Glassnode uses to cut this off is 155 days because they've like done some statistic research on, uh, just the fact that like, once you get right around that mark, the, the likelihood of, of, um, market participants moving those coins out of their wallet kind of drops off. Um, and so like for anybody who wants to like look into the nuance of it, they have a, a research article published on their website. Um, so you, you know, you have three different measures of this accumulation that, that you can look at, and they're all pointing the same thing, which is, you know, really aggressive buying.

• 6:14Anthony Pompliano?

  And so as we continue to see more and more buying happening, I think that most people say, okay, this market structure is setting up. And so the bulls are, uh, looking to higher prices and saying, you know, kind of the supply squeeze, uh, thesis is going to play out. There is, uh, critics or, uh, those that are still bearish, uh, and they're really looking at this as kind of a dead cat bounce. I know that you've done a bunch of work to try to see, you know, what are some of the data points that either, uh, support the dead cat bounce theory or actually end up being, um, kind of critical of it. So where are you coming out in terms of, could this just be a dead cat bounce?

• 6:47Speaker 03

  Yeah, for sure. You know, I think it's um, I think it's like a logical thought process and it's something like everybody has to, you know, keep in mind until it's disproven because you can never, you know, speak in absolutes and rule out everything. Um, but you know, looking at, I guess, the, the evidence and trying to build a case, I think, um, there's a pretty strong case against this being a dead cat bounce. And the reason I say that is because, um, you know, one of the things that we said we were looking for like two weeks ago was, okay, if we start moving back up, are these long-term holders that have been buying, are they just going to dump on like the first opportunity that they get? Um, and, and so like the way to look at this is, you know, we can look at it a few ways, but the one I, I threw in the newsletter this week,

• 7:27Speaker 03

  um, was the spent output age bands. So this is literally looking at, um, the, you know, the, the, the UTXOs being spent, you know, in certain age bands. And so looking at, um, the age band of six, older than six months, which is the closest I can get to that long-term holder 155 day cutoff. Um, what you see is that, you know, at the end of the bull market, um, when you have a dead cat, all of a sudden, you know, all those long-term holders pile in and take the exit liquidity. As they say, okay, I want to, you know, I'm going to GTFO, you know, because prices have bounced up a little bit. I still think we're going much further down. I'm going to take this opportunity to just get out of the market. Um, and so that's been one thing that I've been really looking for and, and haven't seen. So that, that's a really positive sign that, you know, these, these, um, long-term holders that have,

• 8:12Speaker 03

  um, A, you know, been in the market for a while, or B, just starting to mature into that, you know, 155 day threshold. They aren't, um, selling on this exit equity. So, you know, that, that in my opinion is, is a pretty strong case against it being a dead cat.

• 8:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then when we start to look at our favorite metric, which is a Sopra, uh, remind everyone what Sopra is and then kind of what you're seeing there.

• 8:34Speaker 03

  Yeah, I feel like, uh, you and I have been talking about Sopra here for like two months straight. Uh, Sopra is basically just a, a ratio of, um, the profit and loss that, that coins hold. So, what you're basically looking at is, you know, are the coins that are being traded on the day, when, are, are they being, um, traded in, in profit or loss in aggregate? Um, and so, you know, in, in a bull market, what you see is they're like, Every time that so far dips below one, it's a really good buy opportunity. Um, because people in a raging bull market, there's really low tendency that they're going to want to sell at a loss. Right. And then, um, conversely, in a bear market, whenever so far goes above one, you know, it's a good time to trim some because, you know, you're in a downtrend, people are just going to sell on any up move that they get. Um.

• 9:17Speaker 03

  And so we had been kind of hovering below one, you know, since, uh, the May 19th capitulation. But what we've seen over the last couple of weeks is this move back up over the one threshold. And then, um, we've been looking for twofold after that. So A, we're looking for, um, a retest of one. So, um, you know, price drops and then we bounce off and, and hold that one threshold as support. Um, and then two, we are looking for, um, you know, seeing if we could stabilize above one, which would be a really good time. Um, so far we have gotten that bounce off of one, like a textbook to bounce off of it. Um, and then right now it looks like we're starting to stabilize. I think maybe need, you know, a couple more days a week to really like, get full confirmation, but it, it looks really good so far.

• 10:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then funding rates, I know is something else you've been spending a lot of time looking at.

• 10:05Speaker 03

  Yeah. So, um, funding rates is like in layman's terms, it's, it's basically like the mechanism that pegs the perpetual swap, which is the, you know, it's, it's a futures contract pretty unique to Bitcoin in the sense that like it never expires, you, you know. The reason it exists is well several fold, part of it like because it clears so fast, you know, it makes, um, getting leverage easier. Um, but the funding rate basically pegs the perpetual to the Bitcoin index price, which is like a weighted average of all the major exchanges. Um, and so when funding is below, um, when funding is negative, I should say, um, what, what's that, what, what that is showing is that, um, spot is being more, is being bid up more aggressively than futures.

• 10:48Speaker 03

  And then conversely, when the, when funding rate, um, is above the spot price, you know, you're positive funding rates. So that's showing that, you know, um, it's, it's, um,

• 10:59Speaker 03

  Taking a long position is more aggressive in the market, I guess. I probably worded that terribly, but what you're looking for is like prolonged positive funding or prolonged negative funding are both signals of, you know, perhaps a reversal. And so throughout like the main phase of the bull market, we had positive funding rates, like really high positive funding rates. But then after May 19th, we had pretty negative funding rates all across the board throughout that whole kind of consolidation. We have started to see funding rates move like slightly positive again, but when you compare where we are now, you know, at 46K compared to where we were in terms of funding back in February at the same price levels, it's just not even comparable.

• 11:44Speaker 03

  Open interest is still not at those levels. It's coming back up, but both of those things, especially funding, is really far from where it was in February. And so like the key takeaway here is that this rally is really being spot driven. That's also reflected in like when you look at bids, right? You're seeing bids being moved up. And so people are, in other words, like respecting the pump, right? People are getting kind of impatient, you know? People had bids set down at like 35K. We broke out of the range. People said, okay, yeah, maybe I won't get 35K. Maybe I'll get a good entry if we retest, you know, the top of the range. We never retest the top of the range. Now people are moving their bids up higher. So, yeah, like all in all, like also seeing like the accumulation trends.

• 12:28Speaker 03

  I, you know, I believe that this rally is really spot driven.

• 12:31Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. And then I know that we've also talked a bunch in the last couple of weeks about miners and it feels like we can tell a lot from what they're doing. You recently wrote, "One of the best historical buy signals in the Bitcoin space." And so when people hear you say that, I think their ears kind of perk up. Explain what this kind of hash ribbon buy signal is and then kind of what you're seeing the miners do from an accumulation standpoint and the hash ribbon stuff.

• 13:00Speaker 03

  Yeah, sure. So like, first of all, um, hash has started to slightly recover. You know, we're still obviously very far from where we were, um, you know, at peak in, in April, early May. Um, but you know, we, we are starting to see a slight recovery. And so the hash ribbons are basically two moving averages of, of hash. And so what it's trying to capture is like when miners capitulate, um, and, and then start coming back on the network, then you have the, um, cell pressure subsiding, right? Because they're, you know, they're capitulating, you know, they're moving off the network and then the hash is, that hash rate is starting to come back on. Um, and, and so like in, in theory, then the, the cell pressure, the forced cell pressure comes off, right? Um, and so that's what the hash ribbons are looking at. It's looking

• 13:43Speaker 03

  at the 30 and 60 day moving average of hash. And so whenever, um, the 30 day crosses above the 60 day, that's, that's the buy signal. Um, and so like, when you go back historically, the hash ribbons have been like one of the most accurate, um, kind of macro, like multi-month, um, you know, uh, timeframe buy signals in, in Bitcoin. So, yeah, we just did get that buy signal a couple of days ago.

• 14:06Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then last, uh, I guess I got two more questions. One is around the miner net position change. Uh, that seems to be just a continuation of the trend, uh, kind of miners have flipped and just are continuing to accumulate as much as they can?

• 14:20Speaker 03

  Yeah, exactly. Just seeing, you know, continued accumulation for them, partially because, you know, we, we had this record difficulty adjustment and then the miners that were still left on the network were extremely profitable. Uh, and so they really have an incentive to, you know, hold the coins that they're, they're betting right now for pretty much, uh, dirt cheap in comparison to like the energy output that it took to mine them previously.

• 14:41Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then what about, uh, transactions? I know that previously you said, uh, the number of transactions on the network would be, uh, kind of the best supporting evidence for a bearish outlook. Uh, I don't think you, me, my brothers, anyone is, uh, is bearish that's on this call, but, uh, what, what are you seeing there with, uh, with the transactions?

• 14:58Speaker 03

  Yeah, for sure. Um, we're starting to see that trend back up, like not in a big way. Um, not where I would like to see it yet. Um, but you know, it is, it is starting to like slowly grind up. Um, one interesting thing though is like, although we've had fewer, like the number of transactions, um, we've, we've seen larger transactions. So seeing like really big spikes in, in transactions above, um, ten million dollars in value. So obviously, you know, those are, those are big buyers in the market moving coins around. Um, and also like the, the fact that we have lower transactions also shows to me that like, we're not in this speculative mania phase. We're talking about how, you know, funding is low and, and this is pretty spot driven. Um, I, I think this rally is healthy in that sense. Um, all like just the fact that we aren't in any type of euphoria at all.

• 15:43Speaker 03

  Um, it's mostly just, you know, like big buyers slowly picking up coins here. Um, yeah. So yeah, like that's reflected in, in the size of, of the transactions. So like transaction volume. Um, and then also when you just look at, um, whales holdings. So like over the last two weeks, whales have like added all, you know, I don't know the number off the top of my head. Um, let me see here. I put down a hundred seven, a hundred seven thousand, a hundred fifty coins, um, since July twenty seventh. Um, so like what I did was I took all the entities. So this, these are like forensically clustered addresses. Um, and I took all the entities with more than a thousand Bitcoins. Um, the reason I did that is like, I had been throwing in the newsletter like a thousand to ten thousand or ten thousand to a hundred thousand.

• 16:27Speaker 03

  The problem with that is, is that sometimes you get, um, you get these movements from, from one cohort to another. So like, let's say, you know, you had, uh, nine thousand nine hundred ninety nine coins in, in this one entity. And then I added one more coin. Well, all of a sudden ten thousand coins get added to the, to the ten to a hundred thousand cohort. So it looks like that cohort accumulated just ten thousand coins, right? But all it was is, someone in the, in the lower cohort under them just added one coin. And so, um, like it, that got really nuanced trying to filter through that. And I just said, forget it. I'm just going to take all the lower entities above a thousand to eliminate that. The factor of having those cohorts kind of like move into each other.

• 17:07Speaker 03

  And so like I did that and then filtered out the exchanges, obviously great scale QBDC purpose ETF and like all the all the major basically on chain recognizable entities. And so you get basically like the raw balance of like big whales over a thousand Bitcoins. And yeah, so you've seen strong accumulation from them as well the last couple of weeks. And so like pairing that with the fact that we've seen those large transfers, so over over $10 million in in, you know, USD value, you know, that that's showing that there's some big buyers in the market.

• 17:42Anthony Pompliano?

  I love to hear that. Joe, John, what questions you guys got?

• 17:45Speaker 04

  Hey, well, thanks for doing this. Pump for you to get back to school. I'm sure you're excited.

• 17:51Speaker 04

  So I had a quick question. I saw an interesting tweet from Willie Wu yesterday. I think you retweeted it also. But it was around the supply distribution of Bitcoin. And it was talking about if we zoom out and we look at the last four to five years, it looks like whales, those who own a thousand or more Bitcoin have dropped off dramatically from a percentage standpoint, maybe around 35, 40%. Now they represent about 25% of the supply. And in the same vein, publicly held entities have increased dramatically and so have minnows, right? Those who own less than 10 Bitcoin. How do you think about supply distribution in general and like its impact on long term price?

• 18:25Speaker 03

  Yeah, sure. Great question. Like when you, like you said, when you look at this plotted out, what you see is you look at retail compared to overall circulating supply over time, the portion that they hold goes up and then whales over time are distributing. So, you know, that that's a good thing in terms of like the supply distribution. It's really healthy because you don't want, obviously, a lot of supply held in the hands of the few. You know, for price purposes, mostly because, you know, large buyers can just dump at will and they have, you know, stronger control over over the price, at least in the in the short term. And so, yeah, like seeing that, seeing that distribution over time, and in my opinion, is going to kind of coincide with some kind of stability in price because you have that more even distribution.

• 19:09Speaker 03

  And so people don't have as much individual effect on the market, I guess.

• 19:13Speaker 04

  Yeah. And and I guess so. Part of that is obviously from publicly held entities, right? Which we can go back and forth on whether they should be considered whales or not. But how do you think about their impact on the supply, right? So they Could, I guess, do similar, they could act in a similar nature as whales. But how do you think that they, more of them getting involved long term impacts the price?

• 19:32Speaker 03

  Yeah, I guess it kind of depends on the structure, right? Like when you look at grayscale, grayscale has just pretty much been a black hole. And they've just taken coins in and they haven't moved any out. And they sell them for their 2% fee. But, you know, in general, they're just a black hole for coins. But then you have like the purpose ETF and, you know, those coins can move in and out all, you know, because it's pegged and add. So, yeah, I guess it just depends on the entity also like, you know, we're looking at these, these large whale entities, but a lot of times these are representative of a bunch of small buyers. So like, you know, the entities for exchanges, right? That, that we're looking at, these are actually, you know, holding coins for, for tens of millions. Or in some cases like Coinbase, hundreds of millions of people.

• 20:18Speaker 03

  And so, yeah, it's like one entity on the blockchain. But when you actually like break that down, you know, it's way more small guys that are making up that, that one large entity that's identified on chain. So like, yeah, like there's some limitations to like the accuracy of this completely. Like in terms of, you know, we obviously don't know how many retail participants are on exchanges. And like the exact, so like supply distribution on exchanges. So like, I think it should just kind of be taken with a grain of salt, I guess, this information. And just knowing that like, we do have that healthy distribution over time. Although like the numbers aren't perfectly accurate because of that.

• 20:57Speaker 04

  Yeah, directionally, I think it's a good sign.

• 20:59Speaker 02

  John, what you got for us?

• 21:01Speaker 03

  Yeah, Will, how you doing? Congrats on going back to school.

• 21:04Speaker 02

  I'm good. Are we just congratulating Will for going back to school? Making it to another year. So my question is around like, what do you think is most affected the price in like the last week or so? Is it those large transactions? Is it the number of users? Like, what do you think around like where we've been? I guess, say from the bottom of the bear market.

• 21:25Speaker 03

  Yeah, um, you know, I think like, like I said, most of this has been spot driven. Um, you know, we're seeing limited, um, you know, like funding rates have been low. Um, open interest isn't at, you know, where it was in the, you know, main phase of the bull market earlier this year. Um, and so like, when you also look at just border books in general, like Coinbase has been bidding really aggressively. So seeing a lot of, a lot of buying from them. Um, and then in general, like you said, you know, whale. So, so I think it's, it's a lot of, uh, large buyers that have been, uh, pushing the price up in general. Um, but like no kind of like speculative, you know, euphoria or anything like that. I think like this rally is, is very healthy in that sense.

• 22:04Speaker 03

  Um, and yeah, it's, it's just been mostly driven by, you know, steady spot buying and, and people are just slowly moving bids up. Um, as, as you know, they, they're kind of getting impatient because, because prices just slowly kind of grinding up. And, um, I think like the Max Fain theory here is like, not that shorts are going to get squeezed, but more so there's a lot of capital on the sidelines that has been watching this thing slowly grind up. And they keep thinking they're gonna, well, I'm just assuming they, they probably think they're still going to get a good entry. Um, you know, there's a lot of capital still sitting in, uh, stable coins, you know, tether, USDC. Um, and, and so I think like that, that's going to have more of an effect on, on the upside than any kind of like short squeeze. It's more of like a FOMO squeeze, I guess.

• 22:48Speaker 03

  Uh, because you have all those people just watching this thing slowly grind up. They're slowly, you know, you can see they're slowly, you know, putting their bids up higher and higher. Um, and then, you know, at some point, I think like the impatience kind of takes over. Uh, so like, I'm watching closely, um, something called the stablecoin supply ratio. And so that's kind of like a good way to gauge, um, the flow of, of stables in and out of the Bitcoin market. And, and like what you have been seeing over the last couple of weeks is like, that, that's starting to been, you know, that's starting to pick up in terms of like how much of the, uh, those stablecoins have, have started to flow back into the market. So I think like impatience, I guess if I could like sum it up, I think, um, that, that's been kind of the driving factor here. Like people who were, wanted to accumulate, you know, they were really patient buyers throughout that range.

• 23:34Speaker 03

  You know, you saw they would slowly wait to pick up, you know, around thirty K, you know, no rush. And I think that kind of resembles these, you know, bigger, more mature buyers that they aren't like rushing into the market. And so, you know, they had no problem waiting for price to slowly grind back down to like thirty two to twenty eight K. But now they're starting to realize, okay, yeah, I'm not going to get that. I'm not going to get thirty five, you know, so maybe we'll set some bids at forty. And I think like, you're going to get this effect that continues over the next couple of weeks.

• 24:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, before I let you go, we got to ask the big question. What do you think is price action looking like over the next week or so? And then what is, what's kind of your price thoughts through the rest of this year? We're currently sitting around forty five, forty six, forty seven thousand dollars. Where are we going?

• 24:22Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think over the next week, it kind of depends like what derivatives look like. And so kind of like look at it as it comes, like if funding just moons all of a sudden, like open interest moons, then we probably get a correction there in the short term. So I don't know, it's kind of hard to gauge over the next week. I'd say over the next couple of weeks, higher, looking at kind of retest fifty K as like a pretty important level. I think we could potentially set, you know, theoretically a lower high there. But I think like if we get above fifty K, the legitimacy of like a thesis of some kind of dead cat bounce, I think really dies down after we get above that fifty K level, partially because it's like technical support. Also because just in general, it's a round

• 25:06Speaker 03

  number, right? Like, you know, sometimes it's this simple. It's just looking at like psychological levels in the market. And, you know, round numbers are always just, you know, the common thing that price finds resistance. That's, yeah. I think like fifty K, we'll probably retest that in the next couple of weeks and then kind of gauging the reaction there. And then also like, I built like this on-chain like pricing model and so it looks at like some of these metrics I didn't build, but I just put them all together. So it's looking at like the floor that historically for all Bitcoin, like in the bottom of the bear market and then also at the top and then the mean between the two and you're looking at the realized price. Anyway, I'm probably like boring people to death here, but there's one mid-price level

• 25:49Speaker 03

  that I'd be watching. It's right around 57K right now. It's kind of like it's sloping upwards slowly, adding a couple hundred dollars a day. But I think if we get back above that, then like it would be full confirmation in my mind that we're going much higher. And then from there, if we broke above 57K, like I'd probably be targeting the mean between realized price and the top price. So that's like right around 92K right now. I'm kind of grinding slowly upwards. So

• 26:17Anthony Pompliano?

  Okay.

• 26:18Speaker 03

  Yeah, we'll see if we get that confirmation. But in the next couple of weeks, I think we reach that 50.

• 26:23Anthony Pompliano?

  A follow-on to that is I recently was talking to Dan Held and a couple of guys who really believe in this like super cycle thesis where basically they think hundreds of thousands of dollars of Bitcoin by the end of the year. Do you buy any of that?

• 26:36Speaker 03

  Um, it's hard to tell. Like, there's so many factors. I would say though, I think like Bitcoin moves away from this four-year cycle. I think eventually Bitcoin just becomes more free-flowing, kind of in correlation to like real rates and just in general, you know, the raw supply and demand. Like, I don't think a lot of these like overheated signals for the cycles that I look at, I think they'll all get broken at some point, whether it's like this cycle or the next. You know, obviously, like, it's impossible to say, but I suspect like over time Bitcoin will just become more freely traded amongst the just raw, you know, supply and demand and trade more in tandem with like some of

• 27:17Speaker 03

  the more macro factors. Like, you know, obviously Bitcoin has been majority, you know, retail-driven, so a lot of stuff hasn't mattered. But I think you'll start to move away from like the four-year cycle. So, yeah, like, does that happen this time? I don't know. It's hard to say. I guess we'll kind of like get a better grasp for that towards the end of the year when we start to see like The kind of buyers that that announce, I think like you're probably just a big buyers towards towards the latter half of the year, just because like, you know, the really strong accumulation we've been seeing and like, these people probably aren't going to announce until it makes them look smart to do so. Like, why would they announce when, you know, price is still at like 40K? You know, they're going to come out and announce that like, new all time highs, like, oh, yeah, yeah, we bought that down there. Yeah, like, what

• 28:02Speaker 03

  do you mean? You know, they're not going to say it now when when it doesn't make them look really smart to do so. So, I don't know. Long story short, I think it just depends on some of like the more like extraneous factors that we'll probably get a better grasp on throughout the year. And then obviously, you know, whatever's going on with the with the dollar has a huge impact on Bitcoin, right? Like, if all of a sudden, everybody loses trust in the dollar, well, then, you know, that's insanely bullish for Bitcoin. But, you know, it's really hard to like, I guess, call the the timing in terms of like, will that be this cycle or next?

• 28:31Anthony Pompliano?

  Absolutely. Where can people go follow you on on Twitter? And you've got the link to to the email there that people can subscribe to. Where you want to send them?

• 28:39Speaker 03

  Yeah, sure. So my Twitter is W Clemente III. And then you can click on, I just started the Blockware newsletter with them. And that's you can see the link in my bio and click on that would be like the weekly newsletter. It's the newsletter that I've been doing, just rebranded.

• 28:57Anthony Pompliano?

  Awesome, man. Can we give a can we give Will a little like round of applause as he goes back to school, you know? Get it?

• 29:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Listen, don't do anything I would do. Don't get too drunk. And we'll see you next week, man. Have fun.

• 29:11Speaker 03

  I appreciate it. It'll be a good weekend. So I'll touch base at some point, let you know how it's going, man. But I'm looking forward to it.

• 29:18Anthony Pompliano?

  Proof of life. That's what we need. We need a little proof of life this weekend.