Niners Magic, Schlitt Happens, a Red Sox Postmortem, the Seahawks Ceiling, and Week 5 NFL Picks With Kevin Hench and Joe House

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Kevin Hench to react to the end of the Red Sox's season (5:43). Then, Joe House joins for their Ringer 107 picks for NFL Week 5 before discussing some early NBA bets (47:22). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Kevin Hench and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:25Speaker 01

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• 0:37Speaker 02

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• 0:57Speaker 01

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• 1:24Speaker 02

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• 1:30Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network, where you can find me on two other podcasts, The Prestige TV Podcast, where we're breaking down Task every Sunday night right after it runs on HBO. Fifth episode is, uh, is, is, it's really something. So we are on Right After. You can find it, download it, watch it on Spotify, on YouTube, wherever you get it. Rewatchables, we're doing Redford Month, and on Monday, we're doing Jeremiah Johnson, one of my dad's two favorite movies. It is- Unlike, it might be the ultimate mountain man movie that's ever been made. It's one of Redford's, I think, best performances.

• 2:14Bill Simmons?

  It's a good one for his catalog, which we talked about on the podcast, but that's actually on Tubi. So if you want to watch that before Monday, you can find it. Also, big news on the rewatchables front. Eddie and the Cruisers, a movie we've been dying to do for a couple of years, is going to be on TMC at 11:30 PM on Monday, October 13th. So record it, watch it live, whatever, because we have to do Eddie and the Cruisers. It is one of the great bad cable movies of all time, but it's not bad. It's actually awesome. And I'm so glad it's running because there's some rewatchable movies that we want to do, and they just don't exist. I don't know what happens to them, like the rights get screwed up or whatever happens to some of these movies, like The Sure Thing or Reconcilable Differences,

• 2:59Bill Simmons?

  Kiss of Death with Nick Cage can't be found, but there's a million of these. And it might be one of my crusades in 2026 to get these movies back, back in the eyes and ears of people that should be watching them. And more importantly, for the rewatchables. All right, before we talk about what's coming up on the podcast, Niners Rams tonight. So this was on during the Red Sox game that we're going to be talking about later. And then actually, the fourth quarter was happening as Kevin Hench and I were recording our Red Sox postmortem and talking about Schlittler and what this means for the Yankees, Red Sox rivalry. What are the silver linings? We did a whole bunch of stuff and it was really fun. And then the game went into overtime, so I actually watched the overtime just now.

• 3:41Bill Simmons?

  And the Rams went for it on fourth and one with a typical terrible Sean McVay fourth and one call. This is like for what a genius he is as an offensive mind and what a great coach he is. And I think he's one of the best five or six coaches. It's stunning how bad some of his big fourth and one or like season on the line, game on the line. Some of his calls, like I was like, I'm watching it going, please don't run Williams right into the middle in front of eight guys. Just do the, do the play where Puka just flares out and he throws it for two yards like, or fake that you're gonna, no, nothing. The Niners end up stealing it. The Niners are now four and Even though half of their team is injured. Mac Jones, who looked like he was playing on one leg for and just got hurt over and over

• 4:24Bill Simmons?

  again during the game, finished with 342 for two touchdowns. Kendrick Bourne was over 100 yards. These are all like former failed Patriots. This is the year of former failed Patriots. Why is God torturing us? But it was a great win for the Niners. The Rams fall to three and two. And I think the big winner might have been the Seahawks because I still think the Seahawks are the live bet in that division. Joe House and I are going to talk about that later, but it was a really, really great Thursday game. And for a second, it felt like another tie was in play. There are never ties ever. We had a tie Sunday and it felt like there would be another one today, but the Rams really blew it. They ended up, I think they were eight and a half, eight point, nine point favorites. It was over seven by the time game time happened and the Niners playing on short rest.

• 5:09Bill Simmons?

  It seemed like a throwaway game for them in a lot of ways and it just, it wasn't. Somehow they are now four and one. Their over under for the year was 10 and a half. And it seemed like when they started getting all these injuries, no way they're not, no way they're hitting that over. Now, now they're four and one and can they get to 11 and six? Bizarre. They've had, they've had some very strange games this season. And the Rams, I just feel like are probably the most talented team in that division and are somehow a game back with Seattle kind of looming. And as we talk about later with House, I really like that Seattle team. So House and I are coming up later. We're breaking down the week five slate. We're doing Ringer 107 picks. Coming up next, my buddy Kevin Hench, Red Sox postmortem.

• 5:54Bill Simmons?

  We're going to talk about the Yankees. Do they actually have some World Series chances? We're going to try to, we're going to try to jinx them as much as we can. It's all coming up next. We're going to take a break and then our friends from Pearl Jam. This is the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL. Come on, FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live your way. So you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts recently. Guess what I did? Used FanDuel. Super fun. Download the FanDuel app or go to FanDuel.com/BS to get started. Must be 21 plus, present in select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Game

• 6:37Bill Simmons?

  problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 888-79777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.

• 7:13Bill Simmons?

  All right, recording the top part of the podcast. It's a little before 8 o'clock on Thursday night. The Red Sox season is over. The Niners Rams game is going. We're gonna try this one. We're gonna have the NFL game on as my buddy Kevin Hench and I recap the end of the Red Sox season. A team that was lovable, frustrating, and you saw all of it over the course of this series. It all came down to one inning, Hench. A four-run inning with our rookie early out there and our defense let us down and all of a sudden the season was over.

• 7:46Speaker 04

  I mean, really, the series was lost last night. You know, Jaren Duran, being built like DK Metcalf, not always great for baseball. Like, you know, he's a bodybuilder. And so he did all the hard work of getting to Aaron Judge's pop fly. And then the simple part, which is also DK's problem, by the way, the simple part of just squeezing it in your mitts, got away from him. So that's one run that they shouldn't have scored. And then obviously, if Sedan gets the bunt down last night, Sogard's fly ball is the sack fly. We win the game 4-3. Instead of losing the game 4-3, we vanquished the evil empire.

• 8:27Speaker 04

  But Sedan's bunt, now, believe me, I wish I was in Zoe Simmons soccer game last night. So Sedan, you know, Cora puts the bunt on first and second, nobody out. You're like, definitely the right baseball play in a playoff game for sure. Then Sedan proceeds to stab at a pitch 14 inches outside the strike zone. And I'm like, you gotta take the bunt off. There, there, this guy is not going to execute a bunt. And so he doesn't, he leaves the bunt on and Sedan bunts it on the fly to the rubber, which ironically is further than he hit a ball for eight weeks in July and August. Like he had a slump after the All-Star break where he

• 9:12Speaker 04

  just never hit the ball. And then, and then he rips a bunt back to the pitcher's mound. They don't have any runners. They lose last night by a run and just tonight felt preordained. Like I was like, when you let a team off the hook, when you have them, Cora, Cora going and getting Baio in the third, like he was not messing around. He knew he went for it last night and we had him and then, and we let him off the hook. And, uh, and then, you know, you and I have, uh, have a lot of experience with Cam Schlittler, uh, very little of it as good as it, you know, as, as Roto owners, um, who now have to keep him for $19. Uh, but

• 9:53Bill Simmons?

  We actually have to. He played himself on our roster next year. Henshaw and I picked him up. What was it? Mid-July for 19 bucks. We took a flyer. He had big strikeout numbers. And he had some good starts for us, but nothing, nothing, nothing like tonight.

• 10:08Speaker 04

  Historic dominance, uh, you know,

• 10:10Bill Simmons?

  Of a shitty lineup.

• 10:12Speaker 04

  You know, it was, yes. I mean, that, and that's the thing, you know, uh, this is not our team. Our best player is out for the season, Roman Anthony, the, the best player in a generation for the Red Sox. You know, the Willian Abreu, a top five player on this roster, also essentially out for the season. Like he never got his timing back. So he back and dressed, but he didn't do anything after he came back. Um, you know, our first baseman, Tristan Casas, lost him for the season and then we lost. How cutter Crawford, Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitz, those are four guys who could have made 120 starts.

• 10:52Speaker 04

  They made 30 starts. So you end up with like, why are you guys starting Connolly early in a playoff game?

• 10:59Bill Simmons?

  And G. Lito, who made it all the way to the end of September to get his bonus for next year and then got hurt.

• 11:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, we're, we're on our 11th starter. That, that's why this kid who doesn't look like he's old enough to drink is starting a deciding game in Yankee Stadium. We've, you know, this is modern baseball. You kind of have to have a staff where six guys have TJ. And that's how you get through the season. Um, but you know, so obviously going back to Sunday, I was like, we have to lose to the Tigers. We have to lose to the Tigers and you know, this was.

• 11:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. You were comparing it to the Joe Milton game.

• 11:34Speaker 04

  Yeah, it was, it was David Hamilton, David Hamilton and Jose De Leon, Joe Milton does. Uh, on the last day of the season where we absolutely have to lose, you know, Butch Coolidge is supposed to take.

• 11:47Bill Simmons?

  The irony of David Hamilton, who had the worst bunting sequence, not just of the season, but of, uh, of the decade. That cost us the extra win that we would have had to maybe even sniff, sniff something better than where we ended up.

• 12:01Speaker 04

  Bunt attempts in San Diego where it's like, you're an under 200 hitter, middle infielder, utility infielder.

• 12:08Bill Simmons?

  With no power.

• 12:09Speaker 04

  Borderline guy like this obviously is a skill you have to have, like you must do this, you must do this all the time. And it's like, nope, can't bunt as, as nobody, I feel like, you know, Clint Eastwood and Gran Torino. Why can't anybody bunt? Like I'm fucking just angry old man.

• 12:26Bill Simmons?

  That's the thing about these 162 game seasons that we experienced day to day on our text thread. These little moments that happen during the six months. And then when you get to the playoffs. They all come back like Rafaela, who I think is a fantastic center fielder. He has one weakness on those little stupid pop flies into mid center that he's always laid on and he's always diving wrong. And how many times did that happen this year? Eight?

• 12:51Speaker 04

  It's insane for a guy who catches everything in the triangle.

• 12:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 12:56Speaker 04

  You're like, how is he even there? And he, I don't know, he just must not get a good read because the last 22 pop flies in front of him, he's laid out, got leather on them and caught zero of them.

• 13:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 13:08Speaker 04

  So, so yeah, we had to lose so we could face the Guardians who obviously they were going to pump again. That, that team was not, that team had a minus six run differential on the season. They were not good. We had to lose on Sunday. And then of course, when Jose De Leon starts for us, I'm like, who's Jose De Leon? And I go to the baseball stats and he was 0 and 9 with a 6.93 ERA in AAA. And I'm like, okay, Cora is doing everything he can. You, you can't get a call from the commissioner. You have to put players on the field. So it's like, you start Jose De Leon, you start David Hamilton, you're doing everything you can. Jose De Leon has the start of his life and David Hamilton hits a home run and we win

• 13:53Speaker 04

  and we have to play the Yankees instead.

• 13:55Bill Simmons?

  The funny thing was you were actually focused on this. I was just like, whoever we play, whatever the, the roster we have, it's not like we're winning four rounds. Ryder Cup was on, NFL was on, but in retrospect, I wish I had been more focused on Jose De Leon.

• 14:12Speaker 04

  You know, I mean, the Guardians, like they're, they're number five hitters hitting 195, like their lineup reminds me of our lineup. Like they are terrible. And I know you, me and O'Malley and sure, the thread all recognizes how flawed this Yankees team is, but they also almost always have a terrifying guy at the plate. Like you, you say what you want about what a weird team they are, but like a lot of time you're like, oh, Ben Rice could go deep here.

• 14:42Bill Simmons?

  Well, especially if you're, if you have a righty going against them, it feels like, like six, seven guys could just go deep on any at bat, which we used to have back when the owner spent more money and they actually cared about the roster. Now we have, now we have Nate Lowe. Is there a more obvious guy in the history of the franchise to make the last out of the season than Nate Lowe?

• 15:03Speaker 04

  I mean, that it was such a bummer. I mean, because of course, we had no first baseman for most of the year. We were trying to do it with like Abraham Toro.

• 15:12Bill Simmons?

  We did have a first baseman. We just never asked him to play first base in February and March.

• 15:16Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah. He, that's right. I forgot about.

• 15:19Bill Simmons?

  We just told him he was going to DH only. And then when our first baseman got hurt, all of a sudden, he was mad at everybody and didn't want to play first base.

• 15:27Speaker 04

  That guy's dead to me forever. So, so Abraham Toro, bless his heart, because you know, he, he really battled, but he was like my height and I am not. And it, you know, as someone who's played a lot of shortstop, you don't like throwing to midgets at first base. Like every throw has to be right on the money. There's no stretch.

• 15:49Bill Simmons?

  What's funny is you bringing him up that he was like 12 terrible Red Sox hitters ago. He's not even in the team anymore. He batted cleanup for us after the trade deadline.

• 15:57Speaker 04

  He would have hit fifth tonight. Like, I really like this. Anyway, so, so when we got in the thing, hello, but like the first thing I do is like, I'm like, oh, he's 6'4". Okay. Well, that's right off the bat where he's 6'4".

• 16:09Bill Simmons?

  He looks the part.

• 16:10Speaker 04

  And then I look and I'm like, oh, you want to go glove? Okay, that's good. And then I looked at his Ranger numbers and I'm like, this guy's, this guy's not very good. Like he strikes out all the time. And he, you know, and he obviously kind of just finally fizzled out with the Nationals. So like, there's a reason he was on the slag heap. And then, you know, hit the big home run against the Orioles and we're like, oh, he's going to have that death rattle two months where he's awesome. And then it's like, no, he's just a not very good hitter. And it, and it really.

• 16:39Bill Simmons?

  Well, he had the death rattle on, on the ground ball to first base where we needed him to make a really good play. And of course he did not.

• 16:45Speaker 04

  I mean, it's funny about the four runs tonight because like, not only, you know, last night, our bodybuilder in left field couldn't squeeze the ball, but Romy Gonzalez is, is also built like a bodybuilder. And then when he was trying to get to Volpe's dribbler, it's like, he's fast in a straight line like DK, but you have to move laterally. And then he also could have been standing under Bellinger's pop-up that started the whole problem. Somebody should have been camped under that ball because it was up there for a week and a half. And, and so, so.

• 17:19Bill Simmons?

  It was ridiculous. I can't believe that started everything because early was, early was dealing.

• 17:25Speaker 04

  But as, as depressing as those four runs were, you know, I texted you early on. I was like, how are we going to score a run? We're not.

• 17:34Bill Simmons?

  You could tell with Schlitter right away.

• 17:35Speaker 04

  It was just like, oh my God, he could just announce, hey, it's going to be 101 right down the middle. We there was, we were overmatched from, from Jump Street.

• 17:44Bill Simmons?

  He must have loved playing our lineup too.

• 17:46Speaker 04

  Oh, I know. You get excited, right? You're like.

• 17:48Bill Simmons?

  Well, the thing with these guys, these big strapping right-handers who can throw 101 and you also give them an awesome crowd and playoff adrenaline. Like, we were arguing on our thread about whether he should have even come back in for the seventh. I liked it because he was only at like 90 pitches, but it's like, we haven't, we haven't touched this guy. He of course, but when they brought him back for the eighth, I thought that was pushing it. And then of course we swung at everything and it was a seven pitch inning.

• 18:13Speaker 04

  You know, I mean, game one, Luke Weaver scarred Booney for life. So I mean, he just was like, please, please get me to Bednar. Uh, Low, you know, Low's, Low's body would look out of shape on a men's league softball team. Like he would be the fat out of shape guy on a, on a team of 50 year olds.

• 18:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. They had a slow mo of him miss swinging, missing and his belly was juggling in the slow mo. I was like, I haven't seen that in a while.

• 18:41Speaker 04

  He, he hits a comebacker and it's like, it's the most slow motion double play. I use Devon Williams last night airmails Volpe. So it's like, he almost throws it into center field and you're like, oh, are we, are they going to get no outs? It's like, oh, no, no. Volpe saved it from going to center field. He came down on the bag. Well, it's obviously they're not going to get a double play. It's like, oh no, Low's still running. He's two thirds of the way to first base. Wow.

• 19:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. He's like running like he's in a horror movie, being chased by a serial killer villain. So I gotta be honest. I mean, especially after yesterday, wasn't feeling great about today because it was October 2nd, which is our Michael Myers day for Red Sox fans. You just go back to 1978, which, um,

• 19:31Bill Simmons?

  I think was the first real, maybe the Ben Dreyfoss game. I was pretty young when that happened, but I knew something bad had happened in Raiders Pats. Definitely watched it. The rough in the past against Sugar Bear Hamilton. But that, that Bucky Dent game was the first like actually crying from a loss game for me. And so just seeing that this game was on October 2nd, I can't say I felt great. You must have felt the same way, right?

• 19:56Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, obviously, all the success has ameliorated the pain of that day quite a bit.

• 20:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but there's still the, just the day itself. It's hard not to just think of Yaz popping out to that.

• 20:11Speaker 04

  It's funny because you know, your, your, your doc was on a couple nights ago and I was, I was watching the comeback from, from 3-0. And it's just, it never gets old. It's so amazing. All those characters, all those moments, all those plays. Like, you know, you talk about like Duran not squeezing Judge's ball last night and, and missing the bunt. It's like, the 2004 Red Sox, it made every play. Like, there was no Curtis Laskin. Like, there's nobody, once we had no margin for error, nobody did anything wrong. It was insane.

• 20:45Bill Simmons?

  Well, and then we got every break too. I'll never forget that Tony Clark, Tony Clark double going, going into the stands and just saving our asses.

• 20:53Speaker 04

  But, but in, so whenever you're establishing what the mood was in 2004, you have to show 2003. And like, sometimes I see these things that I'm like, how did I survive? How did I, I like, how did we?

• 21:08Bill Simmons?

  We didn't. We, we were working together at Jimmy's show. I, I left the next day. I left early. I asked if I could leave. I couldn't function.

• 21:16Speaker 04

  And then, and then, you know, when, when he brings, when, when Tito brings Pedro in, in game seven.

• 21:24Bill Simmons?

  Why are you doing this?

• 21:25Speaker 04

  2004.

• 21:27Speaker 04

  It's there's no explanation for it. And then, you know, I know Tito's already doing sound bites, so I know he's gonna be asked this question. And then Pedro has already said, I didn't have my cleats on. Like, I know, I, there's no, under no circumstances did I think I was pitching in this game. And then Tito goes, it was really important to Pedro. And I, I love those moments where someone's lying. Someone is definitely lying. It's like, well, if it was so important to him, he should have known where his cleats were. Because he didn't think he was pitching. But it took me back to like, even when, even when you're up, you know, 8-1, you can get nervous because you're a Red Sox fan.

• 22:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but we flipped this, though, in them. By the time we got to this decade, I felt like we had flipped the juju. And now it took 2025, where they just have a way more expensive, better lineup, and better pitchers, and, and better everything. And we had basically this, we had a five man team.

• 22:25Speaker 04

  You don't think Nathaniel Lowe could start for the Yankees?

• 22:28Bill Simmons?

  I don't. I, I mean, they must, I was thinking about, like, you know, some people don't really watch other teams until we get to, if you're a National League fan, you've probably haven't watched the Red Sox this year. I was thinking about people just watching our lineup, going, wait, this guy, this guy's batting fifth?

• 22:48Speaker 04

  Or, or just first pitch, Rob Refschneider is your, your leadoff hitter? Like, that guy's been a utility player for 10 years. And we did have this crazy smoke and mirrors thing, where Romy and Ref were our, our lefty killers.

• 23:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that, I actually thought they were gonna do well in game one.

• 23:06Speaker 04

  They, they are utility players. They're, they're not everyday players. And so, when they started the series 0 for 13, I was like, yeah, uh, America's introduced to our lineup.

• 23:18Bill Simmons?

  Well, and then that, those guys, and then the other one was Raffiella, who really came on the last couple of weeks of the season, and seemed like he was back to where he was in June. And then he stunk in this series.

• 23:30Speaker 04

  He had the 11 pitch walk. And I was like, this, this, the 11 pitch walk against Weaver, that really won game one. Was like a poker player, setting a guy up for the big win at the end. Like Rafael spent 600 plate appearances going, you're not going to believe what's going to happen. I'm going to take that pitch out of the strike zone. I'm going to walk.

• 23:58Bill Simmons?

  It was like the sting.

• 24:00Speaker 04

  He was back to his normal self tonight, striking out on ball four in the second.

• 24:04Bill Simmons?

  Let's, uh, let's take a quick break and then I want to do silver linings. This episode is brought to you by Carhartt. We spend a lot of time talking about football, the players, the coaches, the big plays, but there's a whole other team. We rarely think about the people who make the game possible, the workers building stadiums, paving parking lots, growing the grass, welding the goalposts, even making the footballs. They're committed to their craft and they're doing the work long before kickoff. Carhartt is proud to outfit those crews. So next time you're watching a game, take a second to appreciate the people behind it. Learn more at carhartt.com/jointhetraids. This episode is brought to you by Workday. Guessing is for game shows, not your business, especially when your margin for error is zero.

• 24:48Bill Simmons?

  Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance and IT with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails. So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24/7 and the ability to not just get work done, but get it done right. It's a new Workday. All right, hedge silver linings. The Yankees have to bring back Aaron Boone now. I think that's a win for us, right? Can't, you can't fire him now. I want to play upstairs. Men have to extend them.

• 25:19Speaker 04

  And by the way, like, I don't, I mean, I've said this a lot, but like, I miss George Steinbrenner. Like I, I love, you know, we grew up with the, you know, Billy Martin, Bob Lemon, Billy Martin, Dick Hauser, Billy Martin. Like, that was fun. This thing of like Cashman and Boone have lifetime appointments, like Supreme Court justices. Like, where's the fun of New York? And I feel the same way about the Cowboys. Like Jerry Jones is the nicest guy in the world. Like, you know, like they lose a game and he's like, I'm sick to death for the kids. I love those guys. Like, are you pissed off?

• 25:53Speaker 04

  Nobody's angry anymore. Billionaires aren't angry like, uh, yeah, Boone should have been fired 10 times over and Cashman, I can't believe how many lives Cashman is, has lived through this, this drought. Like 2009, you're the Yankees. Why is this guy still making personnel decisions?

• 26:12Bill Simmons?

  Silver lining number two. Judge didn't really do anything. Playoff judge is still a factor. It's still a fun thing like, cause all we have now, once the Red Sox get eliminated is now rooting against the Yankees, which is like, brings me 97% of the satisfaction of the Red Sox winning. So Judge not being able to get over the hump as like this awesome playoff hitter. We still have that holding on to it.

• 26:35Speaker 04

  Well, and sure, sure. Made the great point that like Judge hitting a flare to left that Duran drops and then, and then going, this is our house. At first like you, you, you just hit a weak fly ball to left.

• 26:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 26:50Speaker 04

  That, uh, you know, Randy Macho Man Savage couldn't haul in like, like, why are you happy? Why are you proud of yourself?

• 26:58Bill Simmons?

  Here's my third silver lining. McMahon made that great, great, uh, careening into the dugout catch in the, what was it? The eighth inning? Um, nobody, nobody helped him. I said, I like that the Red Sox Yankees, he had a must that is still there. That guy was just going to careen to his death and people are like, ah.

• 27:18Speaker 04

  No, like, no, obviously the, the lesser angels of our nature immediately when Slayton hit Judge were like, oh, is that the hammock bone fracture possibility?

• 27:29Bill Simmons?

  I was like, ah, did maybe that'll sting them for the rest of the game. Um, the, uh, the four silver lining, and this is a bigger conversation. Are the Red Sox owners going to care that they lost the series to the Yankees, a team that we have tilted the upper hand on over the last 20 plus years? And now when you watch the Yankees roster versus the Red Sox roster, and they allegedly traded Devers so that they would have more money to spend this winter. And you have Roman Anthony, who's this generational talent, as you said, who I do think if he's in this series, I think he maybe swings game two, but I just want people to understand like how good that guy is. Are they going to actually give a shit about next season in a real way? Because I have no idea.

• 28:14Speaker 04

  Well, I mean, obviously the nucleus is already there. So the question becomes, what do they add?

• 28:20Bill Simmons?

  How about some starters? That would be fun. Well, how about not doing the roll the dice with the $19 million guy coming off some sort of injury and keeping your fingers crossed? Can we stop that?

• 28:29Speaker 04

  The Walker Bueller formula has failed.

• 28:33Bill Simmons?

  Repeatedly failed.

• 28:35Speaker 04

  Maybe we get a guy like Nick Pavetta. Hey, that's an interesting thing. Four years, 55 million for a guy who makes every start. Like, I don't really, you know, and then Quinn Priester going 19 starts for the Brewers without losing, you know, that when we're, when we are going into like literally into double A to get to the finish line because we have no starters and Pavetta and Priester are making every start.

• 28:59Bill Simmons?

  We're in, we're in an AL keeper league and we also follow all the baseball America prospects. At no point in the first four months of this season was I like, I wonder if Early can start a playoff game for us. That was not a conversation we had.

• 29:12Speaker 04

  We all had our eyes on Toly because he was ripping through the system so fast and he threw so hard. And then it's like, you're like, oh, he's not your best rookie lefty. I mean, Tommy Early knows what he's doing out there. He really.

• 29:28Bill Simmons?

  And it was so unfair that I was annoyed by the announcers. I thought they did a terrible job in the fourth inning. I thought they're pretty good for the game, but being like, oh, and they're finally figured him out. Second time in the order, they're, they're finally late. And it was like, are you watching this? We should have caught the pop fly. The grounder, the grounder is like, Bowlby would have had to stop one of those. And then Nate Lowe.

• 29:51Speaker 04

  Announcers like a guy, a guy gets completely beaten by a pitch and it jams him and he hits a flare over the first baseman's head. They're great piece of hitting.

• 30:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, gutsy.

• 30:03Speaker 04

  It's like, it's like, oh, what a save. That thing that hit him in the throat that he didn't know anything about. What a save. Uh, yeah, they, they were, that they had figured something out the second time through the order so that they could hit all those weak pop flies.

• 30:17Bill Simmons?

  Meanwhile, as we're, as we're recording this, the, the Rams driving for a possible game winning touchdown. This could be yet another Kyle Shanahan has the lead and then collapses late game. I don't know how he does it.

• 30:30Speaker 04

  If you win three games with Mac Jones, you should go right to the Hall of Fame. I know, like, I'm sorry.

• 30:37Bill Simmons?

  You should get the Aaron Boone extension.

• 30:39Speaker 04

  Obviously, I've been watching baseball, so I don't, I don't know how Mac Jones has done tonight, but it's pretty crazy.

• 30:44Bill Simmons?

  Well, big picture thoughts. So

• 30:48Bill Simmons?

  Mike Schor, our friend, texted that it's the least talented Red Sox playoff team since the Jose Offerman years, and that sounded chilled down my spine because I remember the, those, those 90s teams kind of talking yourself into the chants while deep down knowing like this was a freaking mismatch and that these Yankees teams were juggernauts and we weren't going to be there. Now, the reasons for that, there are a lot of injuries, like a comic amount of injuries this year, combined with some bad frage moves, but I also feel like the nucleus isn't that far away with the young guys.

• 31:21Speaker 04

  My guy Kyron Williams just fumbled at the one yard line.

• 31:25Bill Simmons?

  Come on.

• 31:26Speaker 04

  He remandre Stevenson it.

• 31:30Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 31:31Speaker 04

  I, I think so. I think so. I'm sorry.

• 31:33Bill Simmons?

  He just remandre it?

• 31:34Speaker 04

  He remandre it at the six inch line. I just looked up because I thought I was getting my third Kyron Williams touchdown. The Niners are celebrating. Sorry, sorry.

• 31:45Bill Simmons?

  Nucleus, 2026 nucleus.

• 31:48Speaker 04

  But, but what I'd say, okay, so, you know, I don't know if Tristan Casas is a 3.2 war or a 2.5 war, but we've never really been given an opportunity to see his ceiling. Like, does he hit 27 home runs and walk 90 times? Like Tristan Casas, I'd like to see him play a season at first base if it's physically possible for him.

• 32:14Bill Simmons?

  I would have traded him last February, as we argued about many times, for one of those Seattle guys.

• 32:19Speaker 04

  That would have been the correct move. You know, another guy who can't stay on the field, but if he could, Marcelo Mayer showed us a lot defensively and he's got a great swing. You and I have been with him for years in rotisserie and we know he has trouble staying on the field, but if he could play second base.

• 32:41Bill Simmons?

  Trouble.

• 32:42Speaker 04

  Every day, that would be a huge upgrade.

• 32:46Bill Simmons?

  We, we drafted him, we had the first pick in the ale keeper thing in the minors. We drafted him over Volpe. And I think every single year, he's had the red flag next to his name on our team roster thing for at least, at least two months.

• 33:01Speaker 04

  Well, he never.

• 33:02Bill Simmons?

  And it happened again.

• 33:03Speaker 04

  Yeah, he never makes it to the finish line, you know.

• 33:05Bill Simmons?

  My dad, I told you, my dad has given up on him. He's like, I just don't think he's ever going to be healthy. He's not shown us that he can be a durable baseball player. I have not given up on him.

• 33:13Speaker 04

  So, so I, you know, hopefully that's not the case. Obviously, the outfield of Roman, Sedan, Willier, and Duran in some combination in rotation is pretty good.

• 33:27Bill Simmons?

  What about Yoshida, who was the best hitter we had for the last five weeks of the season that we made fun of all through July?

• 33:33Speaker 04

  And then, and then if you, you know, Story seems to have, he was great. He was had an incredible season. He was healthy. And you and I were just talking earlier about the Bregman thing, which is suddenly confusing and terrifying because.

• 33:49Bill Simmons?

  Well, explain that for the audience, because this seemed like he was going to opt out at the end of the year after he had this awesome season and then sign a bigger deal. But then he got hurt, comes back, and I'm not sure I want to sign to a bigger deal.

• 34:02Speaker 04

  So, you know, the Tigers thought they were getting Bregman because they offered him a six-year deal at crazy money. And then the Red Sox offered him a three-year deal for 120 million with the option to opt out, which is like, you know, you're going to make 120 million, but you're also betting on yourself. Like, it's a double whammy. You get, you get 120 million, but, you know, so he was so good right away that I was like, oh, we should give him the Tigers deal. Like, then he got hurt, then he came back and he was excellent, then he vanished. From August 22nd on, he was like the second worst player in baseball. It was, he, he was, he couldn't, he could not drive the ball.

• 34:46Speaker 04

  And, and then, you know, Barrett, Brian Barrett was saying, if Meyer had been healthy, he could have played two days a week at third base and Bregman. Might have made it to the finish line, but it's like, well, you can't sign a guy to a six-year extension if you're already thinking about how to play him five days a week.

• 35:07Bill Simmons?

  Well, you forgot the irony of this whole thing is that part of the reason that they traded Mookie Betts, which they were dumb enough to tell us when John Henry did the whole thing about these big free agent contracts, when these guys hit their 30s, they transform into, you know, a different level of player. So it's like, now you're just going to overpay Bregman. So it'll be interesting if they just completely do the opposite of why they traded Mookie Betts, which is still one of the worst trades in the history of Boston.

• 35:33Speaker 04

  You know, so now, so I was, I was against Bregman across the board when it was rumor.

• 35:42Bill Simmons?

  Cause I felt desperate. It just felt like they had struck out. They needed to do something so we wouldn't be mad at them.

• 35:48Speaker 04

  And I was looking at that baseball card and I was looking at like the year he knew what was coming versus all the other years. And I was like, this is a decline phase in the making. We could get overtime in this, this, this game.

• 36:01Bill Simmons?

  Rams kickoff back to 30. Wow. This is some exciting podcasting right now. Of course, there's a flag.

• 36:07Speaker 04

  So I was kind of like, I was like this, uh, I don't love this Bregman signing. And then I just had to shut up because he was incredible offensively.

• 36:16Bill Simmons?

  We were like in awe of how good he was the first five weeks.

• 36:20Speaker 04

  And, and like an incredible leader and like.

• 36:23Bill Simmons?

  He was great defensively, great baserunner, everything.

• 36:26Speaker 04

  Playing the game to guys like, and so, you know, it's just such a great presence, but then watch, watching him, uh, you know, hit shallow fly balls for six weeks down the stretch was rough and not a great, not a great salary drive. Like, you know, so I don't, you know, he, he had, obviously had a huge hit in game one. Um, but, uh, yeah, it wasn't, it was, you didn't feel, um, the confidence.

• 36:54Bill Simmons?

  No, he didn't feel like the same guy.

• 36:56Speaker 04

  Ironically, you had a lot more confidence in Story. I mean, I, I always thought Story was going to hit the ball hard by the end of the season.

• 37:03Bill Simmons?

  And Yoshida. Um, I think Durant is probably the trade piece because he's on a reasonably, uh, reasonably good deal. I think they get a pitcher for him and, uh, they have other outfitters to play his position. Right?

• 37:19Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, we have, we have four outfielders for three spots. And the thing about Duran, he's so terrible against lefties. And if you're in a division and in a league where you're going to have to deal with Max Fried and Carlos Ordone every year, what is the point of having this guy that you have to either not play at all, or drop him way down in the order because he can't hit the two best pitchers on your rival? Like, his value shrinks. So, you know, you, you've got to go get somebody who can hit those two guys.

• 37:53Bill Simmons?

  He could play center for a bunch of teams. Like, it's not like, it's not like he couldn't help. So the Rams, third and 10 now, 32nd sub.

• 38:01Speaker 04

  It's so weird because I, you know, I watched him play centerfield, and he graded out very well. And he didn't regularly drop balls in centerfield. Like, that drop, that drop against the Yankees was, you know, he had like, a bunch of those this year, where he just gets kind of disoriented on his route to the ball, and then gets there and doesn't finish the easiest part, catching a baseball with a baseball glove.

• 38:30Bill Simmons?

  So we had, we had eight, eight-figure guys this year for MoneyWise. Yoshida, 18, Bregman, 25, Story, 22 and 1/2, Chapman, 10.8, they're bringing him back. Giolito, 19, which I think triggered an option that he's in control of for next year. So he might be a comeback. Matt's at 12.5. Jordan Hicks, 12.5, couldn't make the playoff roster. The turd in the punch bowl of the Rafael Devers trade, we knew with him immediately. It was just 99, right down the middle, and guys teeing off. And then Bueller at 21 million, who got waived. So.

• 39:10Speaker 04

  Wow, that, there's a lot of poo poo platter in there.

• 39:13Bill Simmons?

  Well, so here are the Yankees. Cole, 36, Redon, 28, Freed, 14 and 1/2, Goldie, 12 and 1/2, McMahon, 12 and 1/2, Judge, 40, Bellinger, 27, and Stanton, 32.

• 39:26Bill Simmons?

  The contract that everybody said was too expensive and meanwhile, he's fucking terrifying. When you're going against him in a playoff series, it's a miracle when you get him out. You can't believe like you escaped him.

• 39:36Speaker 04

  He hits 300 miles per hour worth of balls on consecutive swings like

• 39:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 39:42Speaker 04

  That was foul was like 200 miles an hour and then he hits one that he thinks is gone. And I didn't like, I just don't know how a guy who can look that bad. It just feels like you could, you, you can bounce the ball up to him sometimes and he'll swing it at anything. And then the playoff, the playoffs come around and, and it's like, nope, I'm, I'm only going to hit lasers.

• 40:03Bill Simmons?

  Well, so big picture with this Red Sox. Roman is the only thing that matters. Like ultimately, like we could talk about all this other stuff, but you know, I, we didn't talk about him a lot on this podcast. Cause I didn't want people to think I was a maniac, but we just were like in awe of incredible. His, that was the best rookie season for the part that he played that I can remember since Nomar in 97. When Nomar would just come up and just hit these rockets time and time again. You're like, this guy's a rookie. And Anthony, I think was better than him.

• 40:34Speaker 04

  It, it, it, cause you know, obviously he hit the 497 foot homerun in Worcester and it was like, oh my God, you know,

• 40:41Bill Simmons?

  Get him up.

• 40:42Speaker 04

  Roy Hobbs is, this is, this is mythical. This guy's coming and then struggled out of the gate and was kind of like, all right, that's, that's what rookies usually do. Then clearly he figured it out. And then the three at bats that come to mind, which make it so depressing about how our season ended and how his season ended. But so we're in Minnesota after the turbulent flight. And they bring in Johan Duran, who's definitely going to get moved, but he throws 100 miles an hour with movement. And Roman's unfazed, there's no pitcher he's phased by. He gets the game winning base hit off Duran.

• 41:20Speaker 04

  Then against the Astros, they bring in a lefty specialist who like, hasn't given up a hit on his slider to a left-handed batter all year. Roman goes off the base of the wall for the winning hit and you know, immediately on the pitch, no lefty.

• 41:38Bill Simmons?

  And we're texting when he's coming up like Roman's going to hit this guy, Roman's going to hit this guy.

• 41:41Speaker 04

  We don't care what the numbers are, we're, we're so confident in him. And then of course, the, the greatest moment of our season. He takes Paul Skeens deep while Peyton Toley's dad is being interviewed live. And Peyton Toley's pitching a shutout and Roman Anthony hits one off Skeens like, who the fuck's Paul Skeens? I don't give a shit. And then Peyton Toley's dad is like, that ball's gone. And we're like, this, that moment, that was obviously the peak of our season because then Cora likes totally come out for the sixth, then it all falls apart and then Roman tears a muscle that didn't exist when Hank Aaron and Willie Mays were playing, but I don't, I don't get that part either. But anyway, so we've already seen that

• 42:22Speaker 04

  nobody dominates Roman Anthony. That, that, that there's no, once, once you're launching off Paul Skeens, there's nobody better than that. So he is, you know, the reason we're going to be so excited in March. Crochet is the guy. I mean, that, that performance where he gives up the homerun to Volpe and then he just said, well, that's it for you guys. That is it for you guys. 17 in a row are going down. And then Baio made a big leap until he didn't. So he's probably a three or four guy.

• 42:54Bill Simmons?

  Kind of ran out of gas the last six weeks.

• 42:56Speaker 04

  I think early is going to be a three or four guy. Um, you know, can Howe come back and be a three or four guy?

• 43:03Bill Simmons?

  Can Crawford come back?

• 43:05Speaker 04

  Those guys, but you know, to your point, what we-

• 43:08Bill Simmons?

  Will they spend money on a starter? Who's Max Fried this year? Can we get that guy?

• 43:12Speaker 04

  We need the second, we need the number two starter, you know, and it's like, when you look at the, the bubble gum and matchsticks that we tried to put this roster together with in the series against the Yankees and then look at the Dodgers who are like, um, okay, well, obviously Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Otani are never going to give up a run, but what do we do about the bullpen? And they go, oh, look in our garage, we have this 100 mile an hour, like just laying around like, we, everyone forgot about it. It's like, oh, he throws 100, let's have him go close out the series. It's like the Dodgers roster is so comically deep. You're just like, you know, Piz, Piz would be our

• 43:54Speaker 04

  best hitter. Like he would have, he would have hit third in our lineup in this series.

• 43:58Bill Simmons?

  We used to spend money like that though.

• 44:01Speaker 04

  Nobody spent money like that.

• 44:03Bill Simmons?

  Well, I mean, no, not money like the Dodgers, but we used to be in the, in the stratosphere where we would have an embarrassment of riches with expensive guys.

• 44:10Speaker 04

  And we're so torn because we love Mookie eternally because he's just the fucking greatest human being to ever play professional sports. And so we don't like it when he's got a 690 OPS and playing shortstop seems to be ruining his career.

• 44:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 44:27Speaker 04

  And then the playoffs come and he's just hitting lasters all over the place. They're like, okay.

• 44:32Bill Simmons?

  Well, big picture, we need the Yankees to lose just because that's what we need to begin with.

• 44:38Speaker 04

  That's what the world needs.

• 44:39Bill Simmons?

  But also, I'm a little worried about them next year because this Schlittner, um, I don't know, that was a pretty, that was, I know it's against our crappy lineup, but we were watching him the last two and a half months. He was throwing a hundred every time he pitched and he just looked like, oh, this guy, they have something and he's going to be their number four starter next year because Cole will be back at some point. Rodan, they still have.

• 45:03Speaker 04

  Fried, Cole, Rodan, Schlittler.

• 45:06Bill Simmons?

  Schlittler is your number four?

• 45:07Speaker 04

  Is terrifying.

• 45:09Bill Simmons?

  And are they keeping Bednar? They are, right? Cause I think.

• 45:12Speaker 04

  It's, you're right to be terrified. That is, that is a terrifying rotation.

• 45:17Bill Simmons?

  Not to mention, they still have, you know, they, Stanton and Judge are going to be back. They're going to have Jazz. By the way, that was another great thing about this series. Boone not playing Jazz in game one was like a gift. That guy's, I don't care if he's lefty or righty. I don't want him in the game. He does too many good things, even if he's not going to get a hit. So.

• 45:37Speaker 04

  And, and, and I mean, you know, in all, all the, all the things it took for us to lose a one run game last night, you know, Whitlock threw Jazz changeups that everybody swings at. Like he threw him these changeups. They were like, that looks like a strike for 59 feet. And he just, on them, you're like, you can't throw a better pitch. You can't throw a changeup that's a strike that he'll hit it. So he lays off it, he walks, but we're still okay unless the count goes to three, two, and Wells hits the fucking chalk.

• 46:12Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 46:12Speaker 04

  Like, and then he scores by six inches. Like it was the, the nightmare of all the things that had to go down for, for us to lose by one run and, and it all happened. And that's.

• 46:23Bill Simmons?

  Who do you think is the best baseball team? You watch more of the other teams than I do.

• 46:28Speaker 04

  Well, I I've been very high on the Mariners since they got all those guys.

• 46:33Bill Simmons?

  Me too.

• 46:33Speaker 04

  And you you've uh you because we got him in Roto, you've been um.

• 46:38Bill Simmons?

  Oh, Naylor. We're keeping him next year. Yeah, Naylor for 24 is happening. I mean, our Roto season came down to not going an extra dollar for Cal Raleigh.

• 46:47Speaker 04

  Oh.

• 46:48Bill Simmons?

  And letting him go and then spending the money we would have spent on Cal Raleigh on Christian Campbell, thinking he was going to be like the next guy. And he had a month and a half and was never seen again.

• 46:57Speaker 04

  That that April may be unprecedented in baseball history. I mean, I'll let the Tim Curtins dig into it, but he just hit nothing but line drives for a month against major league pitching and then.

• 47:11Bill Simmons?

  We were comparing him to Mookie Betts. We were like, this is what Mookie was like when he was young. Just line drives.

• 47:16Speaker 04

  And then, starting on May 1st, he did not hit a ball over 70 miles an hour.

• 47:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the league figured out something with him and that was that. All right, give us your 32nd, the Patriots might win in Buffalo on Sunday night case.

• 47:31Speaker 04

  You know, I think that Bill's defense stinks like and and I think Drake May is good. So, you know, we our defense is not as good as I thought it would be. Obviously, looked a lot better with with our full complement of players, including Gonzo. Um, but I think if the Bills, if we're within a score late, I think we could drive on that defense. And if and if it's 31 30, I hope Frable goes for two.

• 47:59Bill Simmons?

  Well, we'll be talking about that on Ringer 107. My last question, um, the good son at the end, when she's holding Macaulay Culkin and the other and Elijah Wood, and she doesn't have the strength to keep both and has to drop one of them.

• 48:12Speaker 04

  Oh, no.

• 48:13Bill Simmons?

  You're holding Drake Drake May and Roman Anthony, and you only have the strength to keep one. Who do you keep?

• 48:21Speaker 04

  Bye Drake. Goodbye Drake. I love you.

• 48:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you love Roman Anthony.

• 48:24Speaker 04

  I love.

• 48:24Bill Simmons?

  I don't, since we've known each other, I don't think, not even Tatum. I think Roman Anthony is number one for you.

• 48:32Speaker 04

  He's one of one.

• 48:34Bill Simmons?

  He really is. I mean, he was like must watch. Uh, he, it was the first time in a couple of years where I was like going out of my way to watch at bats from a Red Sox hitter. Like, I think like Manny was probably the Ortiz, I guess, like 2013 Ranger Ortiz. But Manny was the last one where I was like, I just don't want to miss a single, a single pitch with this dude.

• 48:58Speaker 04

  And the way he carries himself, like his interviews, he seems like he's from another time. Like, he's just so great.

• 49:05Bill Simmons?

  We like his family.

• 49:06Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 49:06Bill Simmons?

  Like, I was in love. Parents are going to every game. They just seem like good Hanks.

• 49:10Speaker 04

  Meanwhile, I'm like, you know, do I have to hold my breath every time he swings as hard as he can? Like, is this oblique something that's gonna, you know?

• 49:18Bill Simmons?

  We didn't have these obliques and Achilles when we were growing up with sports. It was.

• 49:22Speaker 04

  My day.

• 49:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, people would just blow out their knee every once in a while. All right, Kevin Hench, great to see you as always. Uh, can't wait to figure out, uh, our AL keeper team with you over the course of the winter as we debate on Schlittner for $19. He roped us in. He's definitely, we're gonna keep him and he'll probably, it'll probably put some sort of curse on him.

• 49:40Speaker 04

  Would you go back in time and kill baby Schlittler?

• 49:47Bill Simmons?

  See you, Edge.

• 49:48Speaker 04

  All right, brother.

• 49:50Bill Simmons?

  Hey, I was lucky enough to get a son and a daughter through their early teens and their mid teens in the social media era. And even though we were constantly monitoring it, there's still a whole bunch of stuff that can go wrong. And that's why Instagram teen accounts have automatic protections on by default. Built-in content settings for the content teens can see, contact limits for who can contact them and time management tools like daily time limits. And sleep mode, teens are automatically placed into teen accounts. Teens under 16 will need a parent's permission to change any of these settings to be less strict. Instagram will continue adding built-in safety features to help create age-appropriate experiences. Learn more about teen accounts and Instagram's ongoing work to protect teens online at instagram.com/teenaccounts.

• 50:38Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat, or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what. You're going to want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season. Whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault. You're going to want WeatherTech for American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather. Visit weatherTech.com today. All right, we're recording this before Rams-Niners. So whatever happens in that game, we don't know. It's happening in the future. Ringer 107 also happening in the future. We're going to come up with some picks. We did okay last week. I felt like it could have been better. I wanted to throw some October odd stuff at you. Just that stuff I noticed on FanDuel, like Josh Allen now being a minus odds for MVP.

• 51:23Bill Simmons?

  He's minus 105. Feels early for that, and yet I couldn't come up with somebody I liked more. Herbert's 6-1, Mahomes is plus 650. Nobody else has really emerged, but do you agree with Allen having minus MVP odds?

• 51:38Speaker 05

  No, but they have this incredible schedule in front of them. It's really hard to go through the Buffalo schedule and find losses. And if they end up 14-3, you know, it seems like everybody else, the Chiefs, look like they're fine, but they're like a 12-5 team. The Rams, the one that does kind of intrigue me is Matthew Stafford. Now, I'll knock on wood right now.

• 52:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 52:04Speaker 05

  You know, he will have played. It will have results from that game when people are hearing this, but.

• 52:12Bill Simmons?

  How about Drake May at 70-1? Nothing?

• 52:14Speaker 05

  Come on, man. Drake, Drake, maybe?

• 52:15Bill Simmons?

  Nothing at all?

• 52:16Speaker 05

  No, thank you. No, thank you.

• 52:17Bill Simmons?

  Are you in the Drake maybe camp?

• 52:20Speaker 05

  No, I do expect a really good game from him out of this Buffalo. This is a great referendum on Drake maybe. Let's see, let's see it.

• 52:28Bill Simmons?

  He's Drake definitely for me. Some division odds that jumped out to me. AFC North Pittsburgh still plus 185 and taping this on a Thursday afternoon. Who knows if Lamar is playing or not? They're claiming he might try to play against Houston this week, but Pittsburgh plus 185 still feels mildly enticing. It feels like they can get to nine and eight. I'm not betting it, but I just thought the odds would be lower. Did you notice that one?

• 52:52Speaker 05

  Yeah, I'm looking at it. I don't know what to do. It's a stay away to me.

• 52:57Bill Simmons?

  Because Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback? And they could be one and three?

• 53:02Speaker 05

  It's still, it's still Baltimore can rip off, you know, 10 wins in a row.

• 53:07Bill Simmons?

  And then they're, they're decimated though. They are. This is they, they, there's this imaginary point that you can pass during the NFL season with injuries. And it feels like they've either passed it or they're really close. But on the other hand, Lamar and Josh are the two guys that you feel like they can win nine to 10 in any situation. I guess we'll find out. Plus 185 seemed a little high considering the Baltimore injury stuff. Houston AFC South plus 650. They were minus 110 before the season. If they beat Baltimore this week, they'd be two and three. And if you're playing it out like Jacksonville loses to KC on Monday night, Houston beats Baltimore Indy, you know, they're probably winning this week against the Raiders, but they'd be four and one, but at least the, the Texans would get to play them again.

• 53:53Bill Simmons?

  Plus 650 seemed high. You surprised by that?

• 53:56Speaker 05

  It's worth a little taste just because of that defense. But honest to God, I like getting the Colts even money. I think the Colts are legit.

• 54:06Bill Simmons?

  I think you're right because they should have won last week. They had two touchdowns that got called back. This is my favorite and sadly I can't do it because I have so much money in them already from June, July, August. But Denver plus 460 to win the AFC West. And the case would be you also have to expect them to beat Philadelphia this week. That would be the upset for week five to move to three and two. But there's some really good advanced metrics with them. They lost two games. They easily could have won and you could argue that they blew and their defense is good and I think they have a top five running game right now, at least by the stats and there's the Bo Nix issue, but plus 460 seemed high to me, House.

• 54:49Speaker 05

  Well, it's basically you're gambling on on Bo Nix. Like that feels like the right amount of return on the risk of Bo Nix. Let's see him go on the road and and beat a playoff team. Just just once.

• 55:02Bill Simmons?

  So you're gambling on Bo Nix. You get to feel like Sean Payton because that's been the last two years of his life. He's like, oh, I'm Sean Payton right now. The Chargers losing all for definitely this week, maybe next week and just how much pressure Herbert was under the last couple of weeks, which they've talked about, you know, all the articles were about that can't happen anymore. We can't have him being hit like that. But, uh, look, man, you only have so many hits before something bad happens with one of the hits. NFC North Atlanta is plus 290. This would be more of a Tampa Bay losing this week and continuing to just have injuries kind of hedge. I thought that price is pretty good,

• 55:44Bill Simmons?

  three to one. They're not playing this week, but, uh, but more more a little hedge against Tampa and some stuff that's happening against them. I'm not doing it. I'm just flagging it.

• 55:53Speaker 05

  Yeah, I I already have a preseason on Atlanta just on the theory that that, um, you know, Tampa wouldn't stay healthy the whole season. That was really it in the preseason. I I got it.

• 56:03Bill Simmons?

  You do a flyer on Atlanta, I feel like every August.

• 56:07Speaker 05

  I don't know. I mean, nine and eight, nine and eight could could win that division yet.

• 56:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, here's my favorite. NFC West, Seattle's plus 360 still. The odds and the respect for them has just not been there all year. Wasn't there before the year. It's not there now. They're number one in DVOA, House, through four weeks.

• 56:28Speaker 05

  Yeah, so this, this game this week, them hosting Tampa is, is speaking of referendum games, let's see it. Let's like, you know, that's a good team, even though Tampa is beat up. You know, they, they should hold serve at home. The line is fair. So if we, if we see them handle their business against Tampa, if that defense is what we're

• 56:50Bill Simmons?

  But that's gonna be too late. The plus 360, you gotta basically gamble on them beating Tampa.

• 56:54Speaker 05

  I understand. I'm just saying, uh, you're, you're, the gamble is them making a leap over the ramps and

• 57:02Bill Simmons?

  So we got Rams, Niners, somebody's losing that game today. So somebody's going to three and two. And then the Cardinals, who lost their second string running back and are down, now down their third string running back and they're like 28th passing. You know, I, I think that feels like a possible crater. Uh, I like that plus 360. I think Seattle's good. Um, some, some conference odds, Buffalo's still plus 180. KC's plus 460. Denver would be the long shot probably at 16 to one. I think that's a pretty fair price of the talent. And then in the NFC, Philly plus 290, Detroit plus 440, Green Bay plus 480, Seattle 17 to one. So any team you're interested in other than those seven from an odds standpoint?

• 57:44Speaker 05

  Kansas City at that price is, is remarkable to me. It feels like an autoplay, must play, go do it. What's that gonna be if and when they take care of business against Jacksonville this weekend?

• 57:55Bill Simmons?

  Right. And they got Rice coming back week seven. And I agree with you. I, the plus 460 jumped out to me. Yeah. I, that could be plus 220 by, uh, by Monday morning.

• 58:09Speaker 05

  Right.

• 58:10Bill Simmons?

  And then I still like the Seattle 17 to one. I'm not, I'm not saying they're gonna make the

• 58:15Speaker 05

  Go ahead.

• 58:15Bill Simmons?

  Super Bowl, but I just think those odds are pretty good. The Rams, six to one, I wanted to see a Rams number that made me go, oh, and I think the people have already bet it. It's already priced in.

• 58:26Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 58:26Bill Simmons?

  And then, uh, just from a long shot standpoint, there's really nothing. And I, I think at this I don't think we're going to see anybody over the 17 to one range. You know, the even the Jags, which you say, oh, the Jags, maybe throw, they're only 15 to one when the AFC. There's not even real value in that and everybody else is too far. Houston, 27 to one. I wish I liked their team more. All right, let's, we're going to hit, we're going to do Ringer 107, but as always, we do the, uh, do the stayaways. So last week we went three and two in Ringer 107 and I really feel like we had a good week and the mistake was just not assuming something stupid was going to happen in the Sunday night game.

• 59:11Bill Simmons?

  Green Bay, Dallas, everyone was on Green Bay, everybody had them in teaser parlay. The favorites had been winning nonstop for four weeks and I don't have regrets, but I guess that was the mistake. I still don't know how they give up 40 points to Dallas without C D Lamb.

• 59:25Speaker 05

  The mistake was us gambling on Carson fucking Wentz. That was the mistake on the Sunday morning game. That's a mistake. That's what we did. It was a mistake.

• 59:34Bill Simmons?

  And you, you brought it up.

• 59:38Bill Simmons?

  You said, this is just for the record, a 930 ET game that we're wagering on. We shouldn't do this and I plowed ahead. So we're staying away this time. It's Browns, Vikings, Browns plus three and a half. I actually, if this was a normal game, I would probably want to bet the Browns because I think their defense could just win this. Minnesota's offense, they're 32nd in sacks, 31st in QB hits.

• 1:00:02Bill Simmons?

  That just suck in general and then the Browns, uh, first to run fourth and pass first yards per play. They're second in DVOA. Like it feels like the defense might win it by himself. I'm excited for Dylan Gabriel. I thought Flacco looked terrible. Here's why you don't bet Cleveland. A rookie QB in his first start in a 930 overseas game. That is what I talked about when FanDuel sends you the automatic alert and you're trying to make the bet. And Fandals just like, hey, just so you know.

• 1:00:29Speaker 05

  Well, and not only that, it's against a Brian, Brian Flores defense. It's like, it's also a defense that's going to blitz him half the time.

• 1:00:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I mean, they are missing a couple of linebackers. You could feel it last week with no Van Ginkle.

• 1:00:40Speaker 05

  I think they're going to run the, the Cleveland game plan, this, you know, it's a, it's an under. I think it's the lowest total on the board. It's like in the 34 and a half range or something. And this has all, all the makings of a 14 to seven game or a 10 to seven game.

• 1:00:54Bill Simmons?

  Right. And the under almost seems too easy.

• 1:00:56Speaker 05

  I don't think if it feels, seems too easy, who's going to score?

• 1:01:00Bill Simmons?

  I don't know.

• 1:01:00Speaker 05

  And what are the circumstances?

• 1:01:03Bill Simmons?

  Well, for Minnesota, Carson Wentz overseas with the banged up offensive line and an depleted Minnesota front seven in a 9:30 overseas game. That's also a FanDuel alert. Stay away. So we're staying away. Chargers, Washington, Chargers minus two and a half at home. I wrote rat line in all caps.

• 1:01:19Speaker 05

  Oh, wow. Okay.

• 1:01:22Bill Simmons?

  The Chargers, we were talking about as a Super Bowl contender a week ago. Your team doesn't have McLaurin. It's got Daniels in a, in a, playing with a knee brace.

• 1:01:32Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:01:33Bill Simmons?

  I, to me, just to stay away. I don't know how long Herbert can stay healthy, but wait, interestingly, Washington is fifth in DVOA and the Chargers are 10th, but uh, what do you expect, Washington fan?

• 1:01:44Speaker 05

  I do think that Washington's defense is going to play better than they played against Atlanta on the road last week.

• 1:01:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:01:51Speaker 05

  Um, but the problem is it's too much uncertainty to try and make a wager on what the hell's gonna happen here. Because, you know, Jayden Daniels in a knee brace, the receiver room continues to be, you know, a mess. And, and, you know, the defense has to come up with, with an identity. They have to be able to stop the run because that's what, how, how the Chargers are gonna try and establish themselves. So it's a stay away. I, I, I'm rooting very hard. It's a good opportunity for Washington to go beat a good team on the road. So I, I, I do think the odds are decent.

• 1:02:27Bill Simmons?

  What do you think, uh, the Washington fan base in LA on Sunday?

• 1:02:31Speaker 05

  Oh, I think there's a, there's a big contingent. We know a bunch of them.

• 1:02:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:02:35Speaker 05

  I think, I think it'll be vocal. Yeah, for sure.

• 1:02:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that might be worth a half point. All right. We're staying away regardless. I don't know what to make of the Chargers with these, both of these tackles out. I just don't want to bet on, on their offense. Cowboys, Jets, Cowboys minus two and a half at the Jets. This is the sell high, buy low game of the week.

• 1:02:53Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 1:02:54Bill Simmons?

  Where Cowboys looking great. Oh, yeah, they can put the ball on anyone. And then, uh, the Jets just couldn't have looked worse. And, uh, I will stay away. I was leaning Jets for a second. And then that stat that keeps popping up about how Fields is 0 and 25 when the other team scores 21 plus points. Dallas can score 21 plus points. So.

• 1:03:15Speaker 05

  I if this was three, if Dallas was favored by three, I'd be making a really passionate argument on the Jets.

• 1:03:22Bill Simmons?

  Three and a half would be a real conversation.

• 1:03:24Speaker 05

  Right. Yes, for sure. The two and a half is not enough. Dallas coming off of a Sunday night game where they played 70 minutes, the 60 and then every, every, every last second of the overtime. Yeah. And, and, and Dax, the splits for Dak outdoors versus indoors and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

• 1:03:44Bill Simmons?

  Did you see that stat? When that happens, the team's like, oh, the underdog in the game is like 0 and 4 in the next week. Fields had a classic Monday night game where you're just completely out. You're like, this guy has no chance. This guy just cannot complete passes. And then he has the 45 yard fourth and one awesome run. You're like, Fields, oh, maybe there's something here. I think that's just going to be his whole career. Then the other stay away is Cards minus eight and a half at home against the Titans. I would make the case Arizona should not be favored by eight and a half over anyone in the league. Even their schedule, which was easy so far. Saints won by seven. Panthers won by five. Lost to the Niners by one when the Niners are missing a bunch of guys, then lost to

• 1:04:29Bill Simmons?

  Seahawks by three last week. And then now they're on their third string running back. So I don't think they can protect leads. And yet I'm never taking the Titans. That, that Titans, their streak against the spread, what is it? Three and?

• 1:04:41Speaker 05

  They're three and eight, three and 18 since Tommy Boy Callahan has, has taken the helm there. So, you know, the only thing to do ever is to bet against the Titans on the line. But I mean, they'll, we can't, we can't countenance the Cardinals by eight

• 1:04:59Bill Simmons?

  Can we pay some, pay some respect to the three and 18 then?

• 1:04:59Speaker 05

  and a half.

• 1:05:03Bill Simmons?

  What an incredible record.

• 1:05:05Speaker 05

  Where have we been? That's my question. Where the hell have we been?

• 1:05:08Bill Simmons?

  Setting these odds so that they're the conceivably will have action both ways and they're three and 18.

• 1:05:15Speaker 05

  Here's the thing, they're, they're really two and 19 because they get credit for the fact that the line moved a full point from the summer into the actual beginning of the game in that first game of the season against Denver. So they're getting, they're getting credit for covering a spread because Denver won by eight or whatever it was rather than eight and a half. But that line was seven and seven and a half all summer long. That, that's how.

• 1:05:38Bill Simmons?

  What just happened? Just wipe your nose?

• 1:05:39Speaker 05

  I did, I did.

• 1:05:40Bill Simmons?

  Are you sick?

• 1:05:41Speaker 05

  I, I need, I need a little hot water with lemon. That, that's, that's.

• 1:05:46Bill Simmons?

  I need a little. Don't knock it till you tried it.

• 1:05:48Speaker 05

  I, I could have used some. Yeah.

• 1:05:50Bill Simmons?

  Maybe having some right now.

• 1:05:52Speaker 05

  I was at a Bethpage Black this, this weekend and I'm a little hoarse from yelling all my F U's at Rory. You know, it didn't work, but here I am.

• 1:06:03Bill Simmons?

  You should have been cheering for Rory. They had all, they had all of our favorite golfers.

• 1:06:07Speaker 05

  I'm making a joke. It's, I, I obviously bet heavily on the Euros.

• 1:06:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. You were cheering, you were cheering for Rory and yelling your support to him and telling the fans to leave him alone.

• 1:06:17Speaker 05

  I was saying F you, New Yorkers.

• 1:06:20Bill Simmons?

  My favorite was when you pretended you didn't bet on, on Europe. You were doing this bit on Ringer Podcast. You were like, look, I wouldn't necessarily bet this because I want us to win. So you, you repeatedly told me how many times you bet this.

• 1:06:34Speaker 05

  I said that I bet it. I just said that that doesn't make me any less of a patriot.

• 1:06:39Bill Simmons?

  Here is a new category called getting three free points and yet it's still a stay away.

• 1:06:46Bill Simmons?

  These games include the Saints. Plus one and a half against the Giants. I don't know how they're not favored. They're home. They actually can move the ball. The Giants don't have neighbors. I don't know what's good about the Giants. Aaron Schatz had a thing. They, the Giants had the worst run defense by DVOA through four games since 1979.

• 1:07:09Bill Simmons?

  They've allowed 6.1 yards per carry and guess what the Saints like to do? Run the ball and get first downs. Taysom Hill, maybe back? Uh, and yet I'm not going near the Saints. I, I'm not, I can't. As you know, I don't like betting a two terrible teams game. And that's what this is.

• 1:07:26Speaker 05

  The problem is it keeps bouncing back and forth. The Saints right now are minus one and a half.

• 1:07:31Bill Simmons?

  Did that move again?

• 1:07:32Speaker 05

  Yes, it just keeps moving. So it's a definite stay away. Any, anything where those one and a halves flip. They've been losers so far this season. The Raiders was one and the, and the Ravens were the other one so far this season. Where the ones, the one and a halves are flipping across the, the line.

• 1:07:48Bill Simmons?

  I think there's a scenario where the Saints actually kill the Giants.

• 1:07:52Speaker 05

  I don't disagree one bit.

• 1:07:53Bill Simmons?

  Maybe that's the bet.

• 1:07:55Speaker 05

  I don't disagree.

• 1:07:56Bill Simmons?

  All right, I just outed up house.

• 1:07:58Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:07:59Bill Simmons?

  The Saints to win by 13 and a half is five to one. Saints minus 13 and a half, five to one. Saints minus 19 and a half, 10 to one.

• 1:08:08Speaker 05

  No, can't do that.

• 1:08:10Bill Simmons?

  They're just blowing out the Giants. It's like a 30 to six.

• 1:08:15Speaker 05

  No.

• 1:08:15Bill Simmons?

  And Jackson Dart looks terrible kind of game. I don't know. Uh, I won't be putting any money on the normal spread. Colts Raiders, Colts minus six and a half. Colts cornerback situation in shambles. And it's a kitchen sink game for the Raiders and they're getting three, they're getting three extra points.

• 1:08:33Speaker 05

  Eh, I don't know.

• 1:08:35Bill Simmons?

  I'm just saying that see, it says season's over if we lose this one game. So bring in all the stops. You don't think the season's over?

• 1:08:42Speaker 05

  Well, I, I do think the season's over because I think the Raiders suck.

• 1:08:46Bill Simmons?

  You think it's already over?

• 1:08:47Speaker 05

  It's already over and I'm not, I'm not ready to just move past this game in terms of things we might consider for our card.

• 1:08:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, all right. God damn, I'll, I'll mark it. I wrote down in my notes, Gino Smith and Pete Carroll, the worst reunion since De Niro and Pacino and Righteous Kill. Did you ever see Righteous Kill? It's really bad.

• 1:09:07Speaker 05

  Not familiar with that one.

• 1:09:08Bill Simmons?

  It sucked because we get older, we forget stuff. I think it sucked me in three times on cable over the last 15 years. Like, ah, De Niro and Pacino, I'll give it a chance and it's just horrible.

• 1:09:18Speaker 05

  I feel like there's some worse reunions than that. We can come up, we can do better.

• 1:09:21Bill Simmons?

  Oh, how about this? Watch Righteous Kill and then decide whether, uh, whether I'm right. All right, I'll mark that down because apparently you are intrigued from a parlay standpoint, I'm guessing. Uh, Panthers Dolphins. Panthers plus one and a half was the was the move.

• 1:09:38Speaker 05

  Nope.

• 1:09:38Bill Simmons?

  This is the official pooper ball, right?

• 1:09:40Speaker 05

  It is the pooper ball. Yes, sir.

• 1:09:41Bill Simmons?

  Is this the worst game we can have without Tyreek Hill?

• 1:09:45Speaker 05

  Uh, let's think. What is the worst game? Well, Tennessee would have to be involved.

• 1:09:49Bill Simmons?

  Oh, Tennessee needs to be involved.

• 1:09:50Speaker 05

  The worst game we can have, but yeah.

• 1:09:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you're right. Uh, no Tyreek Dolphins played Monday Panthers coming off a blowout loss and uh, already the Bryce Young whispers are starting again. Watch out, Andy Dalton, just go Uber for the next few weeks. People are worried. Uh, Lions Bengals is the other one. Lions minus 10 and a half at Cincinnati. This is just way too high. I just automatically if a home dog is getting more than 10 points in our picks poll, I'm just taking them.

• 1:10:19Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:10:20Bill Simmons?

  It's at least three free Cincy points on paper. They're coming off a horrible loss. And Detroit's having a cornerback crisis. They're, they're just running out of cornerbacks completely. And yet I'm not taking Cincy. The, it's funny. They're two and two. It feels like they're minus one and five.

• 1:10:40Speaker 05

  Well, that's.

• 1:10:40Bill Simmons?

  I went, I, go ahead.

• 1:10:42Speaker 05

  No, I was just saying, that's because we've seen two and a half games of Jake Browning. And it feels like, you know, that, that's, that's days of our lives that we can't get back.

• 1:10:51Bill Simmons?

  I have all the team Reddit pages bookmarked and I zoom through there on Thursday mornings as I have my coffee just to see what their fans are saying.

• 1:11:00Speaker 05

  Oh, no.

• 1:11:01Bill Simmons?

  By far, Cincy has the funniest Reddit page of all the team Reddit pages.

• 1:11:06Speaker 05

  Congrats to Cincy. They just, they win something.

• 1:11:10Bill Simmons?

  They had seven or eight different pictures of that photo of, of uh, their offensive line blocking a three man rush where the two guys are going around the tackles and four guys are blocking the guy in the middle and the two guys are going around the tackles and they're about to sack the quarterback. And it's just all these different jokes about it. They're talking about, um, You know, boycotting the home game, doing chants. They're so fucking pissed that they, that they had this Burrow, T. Higgins, Chase thing, and then decided not to give them an offensive line, which anybody who was watching from afar is like, what are these guys doing? The Cincy fans are mad, and they have a cheap owner who doesn't really spend that much money.

• 1:11:50Speaker 05

  That's the thing. That's the thing that they have every right to be mad about. And the, the constant mismanagement, the institutional mismanagement of the franchise is, is appalling. It reminds me of what happened here in Washington, although we never had anybody as good as Joe Burrow for the 20-plus years that, that, the, the devil was the owner.

• 1:12:12Bill Simmons?

  The devil, wow. Strong takes from Joe House. All right, we're gonna take a break, and then we're gonna do Ringer 107 and try to figure out our picks. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you your live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching, just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory.

• 1:12:57Bill Simmons?

  Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves, and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 as a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association Member, FDIC. All right, possibles for Ringer 107. Seahawks, Bucks.

• 1:13:27Bill Simmons?

  Mentioned earlier, Seahawks first in DVOA. This is a Darnold versus Baker. Nobody can get revenge for the Carolina situation because they were both miserable game. Tampa's D is really banged up.

• 1:13:39Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:13:39Bill Simmons?

  Missing a bunch of D backs. You look at their injury report, just out questionable, questionable, didn't practice. This just seems like a bad spot for them. And again, that Seattle defense, six first to run, second yards per play, fourth in hits and hurries. Tampa had some trouble blocking for Baker. That Philly game was pretty fluky. They were way, way down in Philly. They had the classic, they're wilting in the Tampa heat.

• 1:14:07Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 1:14:08Bill Simmons?

  Tampa coming, it was, you just kind of knew what was happening as it was happening. Philly holds on for the win. I really liked the spot. I wish this was two and a half, but Seahawks minus three is one of my favorites.

• 1:14:18Speaker 05

  We have to play it. It's an autoplay on Seattle. It, the crazy thing is, have you ever seen a minus three at minus 124? Do you see how much you juice? You have to lay minus 124 on Fanduel right now to get the minus three. But you know what? It's worth it. Bucky Irving, have we heard the MRI results yet? Do we, I mean, he's in a walking.

• 1:14:40Bill Simmons?

  He's another questionable and he's been awesome.

• 1:14:42Speaker 05

  He's awesome. If they don't have him, that's the bridge too far. And I honestly.

• 1:14:46Bill Simmons?

  They don't have him, that should be like minus four and a half.

• 1:14:48Speaker 05

  And maybe it'll move in that direction. So we're very lucky to get the minus three. I don't expect Bucky Irving to play. In fact, I've already benched him in, in our Guillotine League. Cause I, you know, the, the deadline to, to create your roster is Wednesday night. And if you don't set it for, by Wednesday night, here, you're, you're fucked until, you know, until, anyway.

• 1:15:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Okay.

• 1:15:14Bill Simmons?

  Lot, lot of jokes about our Guillotine League app. Monday narrative alert. Are the Seahawks genuinely good? Could the Seahawks make the Super Bowl? I, I just, I feel like this would be the game they're on the radar.

• 1:15:30Speaker 05

  No, no, no.

• 1:15:31Bill Simmons?

  I'm talking Monday.

• 1:15:32Speaker 05

  Not can they make the Super Bowl, but there will be.

• 1:15:35Bill Simmons?

  1110 on Monday on ESPN, somebody will say it.

• 1:15:37Speaker 05

  There'll be respect. There'll be heightened respect for Seattle.

• 1:15:40Bill Simmons?

  All right, we're marking down Seahawks.

• 1:15:42Speaker 05

  That's a, that's a lock.

• 1:15:45Bill Simmons?

  Next one I marked down was Broncos plus four and a half at Philly.

• 1:15:51Bill Simmons?

  This line feels like it should be Philly by three.

• 1:15:53Speaker 05

  That would be fine. I would be totally fine if it was Philly by three. I know that we will continue to confer respect upon the Denver defense. Except the Denver defense had a chance to close out the Chargers in LA with four minutes left in the game. And they let the Chargers drive twice and the Chargers scored a touchdown and a game winning field goal. And I just cannot in good conscience endorse betting on Bo Nix on the road. Like, go have a tremendous game and, and, and prove it and, and like just jam it in my face. Jam it in my face, Bo Nix. Just take it, put, put it right in my face.

• 1:16:36Bill Simmons?

  Please don't cut this out as a video, internet. No, please do, please do.

• 1:16:40Speaker 05

  Begging you to put it, to stick it to me, but I gotta see it. I gotta see it one time. One time from Bo Nix. I won't do it. I mean, Jalen Carter's banged up. Philly's out of rhythm. Their offense is a disaster. Yeah, like there's all this stuff that says that's a good number. You should play that number because it should be about a field goal. But fuck that.

• 1:17:04Bill Simmons?

  Denver's ninth in DVOA, Philly's 12th. Philly's defense 21st against the run.

• 1:17:11Bill Simmons?

  Denver's D first in sacks and hits, ninth against the pass.

• 1:17:14Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:17:15Bill Simmons?

  If they're for real, it starts this week. I asked Shiel Kapadia, our colleague, host of Philly's special, knows the Eagles inside and out.

• 1:17:24Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 1:17:27Bill Simmons?

  I was like, why isn't this line Eagles minus two and F Eagles minus three? He said 18 straight wins when Hertz starts and finishes a game. Feels like they can't be less than a 3.5 favorite at home unless they play the Bills. Their defense played awesome last week, looked like last year. Could put Nix in a blender.

• 1:17:43Speaker 05

  Those are all great points.

• 1:17:45Bill Simmons?

  It's our guy, Shiel.

• 1:17:46Speaker 05

  Have to agree with Shiel Kapadia there.

• 1:17:48Bill Simmons?

  Uh, I'm still marking it. I'm not gonna put it in bold.

• 1:17:50Speaker 05

  All right, all right.

• 1:17:52Bill Simmons?

  Texans Ravens in Baltimore Texans minus one and a half. No Lamar, we're guessing, and if it is a Lamar, it'll be a compromise, not moving around that well Lamar, which is not a Lamar I'm excited about. Defense decimated. I mean, it's, it's comical how bad it's been so far. The year from hell is now lingering. And Houston's one and three. I do like their defense.

• 1:18:19Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 1:18:20Bill Simmons?

  There's a guy in their team that I have on two of my fantasy teams, Woody Marks.

• 1:18:24Speaker 05

  Oh, wow. Congratulations to you.

• 1:18:27Bill Simmons?

  Backup running back. I picked him up. He just played a couple of plays and it was one of those immediate like, whoa, who's that?

• 1:18:35Speaker 05

  Yes, yes.

• 1:18:35Bill Simmons?

  And they unleashed him a little bit last week and I, I think he's a game changer for them.

• 1:18:40Speaker 05

  I agree with you.

• 1:18:41Bill Simmons?

  Makes dudes miss and

• 1:18:44Bill Simmons?

  they went from having a running back situation that I absolutely hated to one that I feel pretty good about. I also think this could be a CJ Stroud, like CJ Stroud in our Guillotine League was on the waiver wire.

• 1:18:56Bill Simmons?

  And I was like, I'm just, I had a principle picking him up. I have Jake Browning on, on my team. But if he was ever going to have a big week, this is the week Texans minus one F in Baltimore. What do you think?

• 1:19:08Speaker 05

  I really want to play the Texans.

• 1:19:11Speaker 05

  Like if you look at the losses, they had, they lost by five to the Rams on the road in their opener. They had a Baker last second pull of that of his butt in week two at home.

• 1:19:23Bill Simmons?

  Game one.

• 1:19:24Speaker 05

  They had the game one.

• 1:19:25Bill Simmons?

  They had a bigger at a, what was it? Fourth and 10, fourth and 12?

• 1:19:28Speaker 05

  Right. Exactly right. And they were driving to tie the game against the Jaguars on the road at Jacksonville. CJ did throw a bad pick in that game that clinched it for, for the Jags, but they aren't far away. They are, they played three teams that I think will look back and I think all three of the teams they lost to are playoff teams this year.

• 1:19:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:19:49Speaker 05

  And then they went and handled their business against Tennessee. I think you're right that the missing ingredient with that Houston offense has been.

• 1:20:00Speaker 05

  A running back with with any kind of of burst and remember last year when they had Nixon, it was a radically different offense like the splits between that offense with Joe Nixon versus without. So if Woody Marks is 75% of Joe Nixon, but really what we're betting on here is Cooper Rush and that that Houston defense against Cooper Rush and they basically just had a week off.

• 1:20:26Bill Simmons?

  That's one thing and then that then how bad the Baltimore defense is. I mean, this, I don't understand why this line isn't Houston by three. This is like a name only spread at this point.

• 1:20:37Speaker 05

  It might get there.

• 1:20:37Bill Simmons?

  As many guys as they are.

• 1:20:39Speaker 05

  It might get there.

• 1:20:40Bill Simmons?

  It's really crazy. Sports Illustrated, five hours ago, Woody Marks is quietly becoming NFL star thanks to touchdown surge.

• 1:20:50Speaker 05

  Here we go.

• 1:20:51Bill Simmons?

  Starting to get some press. All right, we're marked down to Texans.

• 1:20:57Bill Simmons?

  Patriots Bills.

• 1:21:01Bill Simmons?

  Patriots plus eight and a half. That was the line that we have to work with for Ringer 107. I'm just telling you, I think they can hang in this game. I've obviously watched every play of the Patriots. I think they're gonna be able to move the ball on that Buffalo defense and the backdoor cover is in play even if the Buffalo's up by 14. But I think the Pats, I think they're pretty good. I know they beat Carolina last week and Carolina stinks. I get it. But they've been moving the ball multiple weeks. Like they moved the ball against Pittsburgh for the last three quarters of that game. And I think Mays, I don't know, the Sunday night spot for them with Brable as the coach, kind of understanding what that means. This is a kitchen sink game for them. I

• 1:21:45Bill Simmons?

  thought they were intentionally a little bit vanilla last week. There's some wrinkles in there. There's digs coming back to Buffalo. And I don't think Buffalo's looked that good this season. The most exciting game they had all year was beating Baltimore and then. Like after week four, do we feel that great about lighting up Baltimore? I thought the Saints were hanging around with them in a really disturbing way last week. So the eight and a half just seems high to me. I don't know what the right line would be, maybe seven, but eight and a half is a lot of points and I think we should grab them.

• 1:22:16Speaker 05

  Yeah, I don't disagree.

• 1:22:19Speaker 05

  I'm not doing this because we're pals and because the Patriots are up.

• 1:22:22Bill Simmons?

  You love to make fun of me when we take the Pats.

• 1:22:25Speaker 05

  Well, I have, you know, at the outset of the season, we have a bet that Washington is going to end up with two more wins than the Patriots. So over the course of the season, so it's not like I'm heavily invested in the Patriots. This is just a bet, like you know, who agrees with you that they're, the Patriots can move the ball and score? Vegas, this is the highest total on the board at 49 and a half, and there were 50s. Out there over the course of the week, it's just a point and a half too many points. And, and you know, Buffalo can win by margin, we've seen it, but not against an offense.

• 1:22:59Speaker 05

  Like, like with the Patriots are able to bring to the table here. So I like the idea of, you know, the extra one and a half points. If you know, that was the way, that's the way I would handicap it. So I like, I like this, I do like the Patriots getting eight and a half.

• 1:23:13Bill Simmons?

  I don't think Buffalo has enough of a pass rush to force May to make some of the mistakes he's made. I think they've intentionally not had him use his legs that much because they're saving him for games like this. Not to compare him to Mahomes by any stretch, but those big games for the Chiefs when Mahomes actually uses his legs and has like the 10, 11 rushes, I think May, those plays are in there and they haven't, they've been intentionally holding him back. When he's moving around, he turns the corner as well as any quarterback. Of the, of the kind of 25 and under generation, like he flies around that corner and takes these hard angles and the pass rushers can't get him.

• 1:23:52Bill Simmons?

  There's a parlay here where we could take the Pats up to 11 and a half on Fanduel with the over of 37 and a half. If you wanted to even get more points out of this, so I'm just flagging that one as well.

• 1:24:06Speaker 05

  That would be our little parlay thing.

• 1:24:08Bill Simmons?

  If we want to do that, or we could just man up and take the Pats straight up. And then the last one is Chiefs, Jags in Jacksonville, Chiefs minus three.

• 1:24:20Bill Simmons?

  DVOA advanced metrics all around the same, except the Jags played the Panthers, the Bengals, the Texans and the 49ers. And probably should have lost the Texans game or had a chance to. And you could also say they could have beaten the Bengals and they could be 4-0 right now. I think my case here is I think Jacksonville is the good bad team. I think they're just gonna beat the other bad teams.

• 1:24:46Speaker 05

  I like this.

• 1:24:47Bill Simmons?

  I don't think, I think this step is a step too high for them. Playing on a Monday night at home with a big crowd and the Chiefs really starting to figure out who they are and with a little more speed. And I just don't want to take Trevor Lawrence against Mahomes.

• 1:25:04Speaker 05

  Nor do I.

• 1:25:05Bill Simmons?

  So Chiefs, Chiefs minus three seems like a nice, nice fun one on Monday.

• 1:25:09Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:25:09Bill Simmons?

  Don't you think that gets to three and a half by Monday night?

• 1:25:12Speaker 05

  Probably, yep, I'm comfortable with this. And it's already, it's minus 118 right now, the three is, so wouldn't be surprised to see a jump.

• 1:25:20Bill Simmons?

  All right, well, we only have four bets here, so what is your, make your Colts case?

• 1:25:26Speaker 05

  Um, it's really a Raiders case. We keep saying, you know, the game, the spot that the Raiders were supposed to show us that they were gonna be competitive this year was at home against the fucking Bears after they went on the road and laid a giant egg against the Chargers on Monday night and then went to Washington and laid another egg. We said, oh, okay, well, let's, this is a get right spot for the Raiders. They're gonna come home and, you know, they'll move the ball. They moved the ball at will against that Bears defense. They ran the ball up and down. It was the first Ashton Gentry good game. You know what else they did? They put the effing ball in the other hands teams five times when they were on their side, the other, the Bears side of the 50. Five times they did it.

• 1:26:10Speaker 05

  That is, who is that?

• 1:26:13Bill Simmons?

  That's wretched kill. De'Arin Pacino, it's Gino and Pete Carroll.

• 1:26:19Speaker 05

  An unholy reunion.

• 1:26:21Bill Simmons?

  Worst reunions ever.

• 1:26:23Speaker 05

  Why, if we, if we think this Colts thing is legit at all, what, why are we afraid of the idea? Gino has thrown into, and I, I haven't had a chance to sit down and do any of like the real deep PFF, you know, but deeper than turnover worthy, like, you know, where you go into the windows that he's throwing into, but it's as though he doesn't see defenders. He's not colorblind, he's linebacker blind. Because he keeps seeing, uh, things that aren't there. Um, and

• 1:26:53Bill Simmons?

  Can I give you the Bill Simmons DBA for Gino?

• 1:26:56Speaker 05

  Let's hear it.

• 1:26:57Bill Simmons?

  Sucky, sucky. Not just the seven interceptions, but Salem passes. I thought that Monday night game against the Chargers, the Chargers were dying to let them back in that game. Remember? And he was just missing wide open guys. He really just looks like he's not himself. I mean, so are you thinking parlay for this potentially?

• 1:27:17Speaker 05

  I don't know. Um, we, we haven't, we, we came up with four bets thus far that don't have any, anything exotic about them. Right? They're all sides that we like.

• 1:27:26Bill Simmons?

  Right. So would you go over with this?

• 1:27:29Speaker 05

  What about a money line parlay of?

• 1:27:32Bill Simmons?

  With the over?

• 1:27:33Speaker 05

  The, the, well, I don't know. Oh, we have to, we can't, we can't money line parlay with another team?

• 1:27:38Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 1:27:39Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:27:39Bill Simmons?

  Oh no, we could.

• 1:27:43Bill Simmons?

  We definitely could. Why? What team are you thinking?

• 1:27:46Speaker 05

  Well, it would be the Rams, but my favorite play of the week. I have so much money.

• 1:27:50Bill Simmons?

  The Rams is happening four hours from now. We can't do that.

• 1:27:53Speaker 05

  It'll be hilarious when people hear this and, and you know, somehow San Francisco beat the Rams. Cause that is by far my favorite bet on the board.

• 1:28:01Bill Simmons?

  I can promise you that's not going to happen.

• 1:28:07Bill Simmons?

  What about, what's, what's a number for alternate total points that would get your attention?

• 1:28:13Speaker 05

  Alternate total points.

• 1:28:14Bill Simmons?

  Forty one and a half?

• 1:28:16Speaker 05

  Like an over for that? See, my problem is, uh, I don't want to-

• 1:28:20Bill Simmons?

  Forty two and a half.

• 1:28:21Speaker 05

  I don't want, I don't want to mess with that.

• 1:28:23Bill Simmons?

  Forty three points.

• 1:28:24Speaker 05

  See, I don't want to mess with the total because what if the Raiders only score 14 points?

• 1:28:31Bill Simmons?

  With the Colts cornerback situation, the Colts had a guy who played, I think, most of the game, Xavier Howard last week. He retired.

• 1:28:40Speaker 05

  He deserved to retire.

• 1:28:41Bill Simmons?

  Starting quarterback, starting quarterback retired.

• 1:28:44Speaker 05

  And you guess what?

• 1:28:45Bill Simmons?

  That's a bleak situation.

• 1:28:46Speaker 05

  He made the right call. It was a good decision by him.

• 1:28:50Bill Simmons?

  I, the only reason I noticed them was he was the guy running after the guy who was wide open four times a game in the Colts game. So I think it was a good move.

• 1:28:59Speaker 05

  Here's what I'm going to propose. Let me see if it works out.

• 1:29:02Bill Simmons?

  By the way, this game's in Indianapolis.

• 1:29:04Speaker 05

  I know. I'm aware. Like, the Raiders are going to go on the road? This, this feels fair to me.

• 1:29:09Bill Simmons?

  I know, but this is, I said this to Sal on Sunday night, though. This is the fear with the Raiders.

• 1:29:13Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:29:14Bill Simmons?

  Is Gino isn't really comfortable until he's a big dog, ready to mess up some teases and parlays for people.

• 1:29:21Speaker 05

  Okay. Well, that's why-

• 1:29:22Bill Simmons?

  That's when he, that's when he feels the most comfortable. He doesn't want to be a favorite.

• 1:29:26Speaker 05

  Well, that's why I'm suggesting all we do is play the Colts on the money line. Let me see if I can get you to agree to the Colts and the Eagles together. That's minus 107. That's a money line parlay. It's square. I'm acknowledging that it's square, but I'll, I'll take it. I already told Bo Nix to stick it in my face. And then it would be Gino, uh, going on the road and beating Daniel Jones, which sounds hilarious, except he's been really good.

• 1:29:55Bill Simmons?

  Colts, Eagles, minus 107?

• 1:29:58Speaker 05

  Yeah. We don't have to do it. And, and I don't, I don't-

• 1:30:02Bill Simmons?

  Well, you, listen, we do Ringer 107. I get two picks. We share two picks and then you get your own pick. You could just make this your own pick.

• 1:30:09Speaker 05

  Okay, this is my pick. I'm willing to live with it. I'll take the, the, all the ridicule. I'm sure, I'm sure-

• 1:30:15Bill Simmons?

  I'm willing to live with it.

• 1:30:16Speaker 05

  I'm sure that it's square.

• 1:30:18Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:30:18Speaker 05

  I don't care. I don't care. Let, let Bo Nix go beat the Eagles.

• 1:30:21Bill Simmons?

  I'm willing to live with it.

• 1:30:23Speaker 05

  Let, let Bo Nix go beat the Eagles or let Gino go into, uh, Indianapolis and beat Indiana Jones.

• 1:30:30Bill Simmons?

  All right. Today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by our friends at FanDuel, who also sponsors our Ringer Sunday pregame show.

• 1:30:38Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:30:39Bill Simmons?

  You can watch. House is on that one. It's on our YouTube channel. We come on at 11:30. What are we coming on during these weird Sunday early games?

• 1:30:48Speaker 05

  We're 11:30. It's just the game is on.

• 1:30:51Bill Simmons?

  It hasn't changed. Yeah.

• 1:30:52Speaker 05

  Why would it change?

• 1:30:52Bill Simmons?

  Get all the bets. You, Sal, the Bundo, JJ, Raheem, the whole crew's there.

• 1:30:57Speaker 05

  A lot of great bets.

• 1:30:59Bill Simmons?

  And they'll be talking Ringer 107 on there. We're 8-12 for the season. Had some bad luck. I don't, I only feel really shitty about two of those picks and I feel like we got hosed on a couple. I'm fine. I'm not panicking. I'm not nervous. I think we have a good feel for the slate. Ringer 107, first one, Seahawks minus three at home against the banged up Bucks. House and I are both a little more bullish on the Seahawks than maybe the Lions are reflecting. Still plus 360 to win their division and I don't know, I like this team. I think this line probably moves up, right, House? To three and a half, maybe by Sunday?

• 1:31:35Speaker 05

  Wouldn't surprise me one bit. It's already, the juice is there.

• 1:31:39Bill Simmons?

  We're grabbing it three and if Baker Mayfield beats us, godspeed. It's happened before. I tip my hat to that man. He's a legend. Texans at Baltimore, Texans minus one and a half. And this is a bet against Cooper Rush and it's a bet against if Cooper Rush doesn't play because banged up Lamar is playing. It's a bet against banged up, can't really use his legs Lamar. And it's a bet against a Baltimore defense that has been absolutely annihilated and has given up 133 points. This feels like a get right spot for the Texans and you love their defense.

• 1:32:12Speaker 05

  I do and I think there's plenty to support loving their defense.

• 1:32:17Bill Simmons?

  Did that guy get suspended that they have who does, who does a cheap shot every, Al Shair?

• 1:32:22Speaker 05

  I don't think so.

• 1:32:23Bill Simmons?

  He didn't get suspended for that, right?

• 1:32:25Speaker 05

  I don't think so, but he does get suspended every year. So it's only a matter of time.

• 1:32:29Bill Simmons?

  He won't get suspended in this game. All right. Chiefs minus three on Monday night against the Jaguars. I made the case to you that I thought the Jags were the good, bad team and you liked it.

• 1:32:38Speaker 05

  We're all with my homie. This is easy. This is not, we're not gonna.

• 1:32:42Bill Simmons?

  This is it. By the way, I said Josh Allen was the best QB in the league. Mahomes could take it back in three weeks. Who knows?

• 1:32:49Speaker 05

  Plus 650, plus 650 for MVP. That's a good price.

• 1:32:53Bill Simmons?

  Patriots plus eight and a half in Buffalo on a Sunday night in the biggest game of Drake May's career by far. The first big Mike Vrabel Patriots game, a Patriots team that I feel like has been keeping stuff in their back pocket for this game the last couple of weeks and and a Buffalo team that just, just does not look that inspiring and the Saints were moving the ball in them. They're, they have a lot of injuries on defense. You can run the ball in them. On the flip side, you, they're gonna score and I think for the Pats to, for the Pats to hang with this eight and a half, they're gonna have to put up points. They're gonna have to maybe even get a backdoor cover, but I think they can hang around, hang around,

• 1:33:35Bill Simmons?

  hang around. I also love the over in this game. I just think there's gonna be a lot of points. This to me feels like a, like a 33 to 27, 36 to 30, like in that range. You agree with that?

• 1:33:46Speaker 05

  That's fine. Yes. That's all, that's all fine. Those are all winners for us.

• 1:33:50Bill Simmons?

  All right. So I had two of those picks. We shared two of them and then House got his own pick. Cause that's how we do it in Ringer 107. And you like the Indianapolis money line at home against the, the flailing, the failing Las Vegas Raiders. Parlayed with the Eagles money line against Denver. I actually like Denver plus four and a half. You, Shio Kapadia made the case. They don't lose when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes games. They've won 18 straight. Defense looked a lot better last week until the Heat kind of did them in. Colts Eagles money line parlay minus 107 make the case.

• 1:34:26Speaker 05

  Yeah, I, I just, uh, this is a, a last opportunity to go against Gino. It feels like we're not gonna get lines of less than a touchdown.

• 1:34:36Bill Simmons?

  Where's he going?

• 1:34:36Speaker 05

  When they play good teams. I, I don't know. Uh, to the eye doctor because he's, he's linebacker blind.

• 1:34:43Bill Simmons?

  Maybe that's what it is. It's like when my, when my eyesight changed when I turned 44 and my, my eyesight got better, my contacts, I thought I had like a brain tumor and it was just my contacts were too strong. Maybe Gino needs to get his eyesight checked.

• 1:34:56Speaker 05

  Yes. And the Eagles portion of this is just show me, Bo Nix. Show me one time.

• 1:35:02Bill Simmons?

  Well, you were a lot more explicit before. Today's Ringer 107 was brought to you by FanDuel. Odds subject to change. Have you done any NBA homework?

• 1:35:11Speaker 05

  I haven't really started yet. I know it's coming. It's October. Today's October the 2nd.

• 1:35:16Bill Simmons?

  It's coming faster than you realize. We're like two and a half weeks away.

• 1:35:19Speaker 05

  You're right. I'll be ready. Don't worry.

• 1:35:22Bill Simmons?

  We had Golden State sign Kaminga.

• 1:35:25Speaker 05

  I have to tell you.

• 1:35:25Bill Simmons?

  They announced the Horford thing.

• 1:35:27Speaker 05

  I did bet, uh, the Celtics are like 42 and a half for 43 and a half.

• 1:35:33Bill Simmons?

  I thought they were 41.

• 1:35:34Speaker 05

  Whatever it is, I bet the over. I bet it, um, last week. I'm just telling you right now, you're gonna be happy. I, I, I think that's a crazy number for the, for the East. Like, all of a sudden, all of these trash teams in the East are gonna win 45 to, to low 50 games? Get out of here. The Celtics are gonna be in a 500 team. They're, they're gonna be better than that just because they get to play in the East.

• 1:35:58Bill Simmons?

  They're 41 and a half.

• 1:36:00Speaker 05

  Yeah, great.

• 1:36:01Bill Simmons?

  Right now in FanDuel.

• 1:36:01Speaker 05

  I'm telling you, I bet it. I, I just, that, that's the only NBA bet that I can think of off the top of my head right now.

• 1:36:07Bill Simmons?

  I've been making the case that just the, the system they have and all the threes they're gonna shoot and how fast they're gonna play. The, the only, there, there was only one thing from the Tatum injury that I'm not even using the word a positive. I'm just saying that will change their style in a potentially positive way. Is Tatum, as you know, he used to drive me crazy, would walk the ball up, walk the ball up, start the shot clock late. They're gonna fucking run and gun now. Like, they're gonna push the pace, shoot threes, run off made baskets. They're gonna shoot 50, 55 threes a game.

• 1:36:46Bill Simmons?

  And I think they're gonna be weird to play. I think teams are gonna be like, oh shit, now we have to play this track me team. And then they'll change their style when, when Tatum comes back, if he comes back this year.

• 1:36:59Bill Simmons?

  I was all right. I don't want to do the over unders because during that couple of weeks, but I just want to mention the Hawks is up to over forty seven and a half.

• 1:37:08Speaker 05

  Yeah, that's what I mean. That's just crazy. Okay. Like, I love the Hawks.

• 1:37:12Bill Simmons?

  Forty seven and a half.

• 1:37:13Speaker 05

  We've been enthusiastic about the Hawks, but respectfully, get the fuck out of here. Like, it's like.

• 1:37:19Bill Simmons?

  Forty eight, thirty four is like a real record.

• 1:37:22Speaker 05

  Yeah, that's it for a real team. Like.

• 1:37:25Bill Simmons?

  I kind of like.

• 1:37:26Speaker 05

  We like, we like what they did in the offseason, but holy cow.

• 1:37:31Bill Simmons?

  What did you think of Michael Pino making the case that Wemby at twelve to one for MVP has to at least be, or not make the case, but brought it up.

• 1:37:38Speaker 05

  I mean.

• 1:37:39Bill Simmons?

  That the Wemby, the Wemby Kaiser sozé season could be.

• 1:37:42Speaker 05

  I'm, I'm gonna put fifty bucks on it. Every year that he's, I bet, I bet him to win the MVP last year at some crazy number. I'm gonna bet Wemby to win the MVP every year that he's in the league. Um, it's like.

• 1:37:53Bill Simmons?

  Just like a layaway plan.

• 1:37:54Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Exactly.

• 1:37:56Bill Simmons?

  I don't mind that.

• 1:37:56Speaker 05

  It's fine.

• 1:37:57Bill Simmons?

  Um, my favorite, uh, so I'm trying to, like, the preseason, like, reading all the stories. I can't get enough of the Philly coverage. We had actually a good piece on the Ringer this week about them. This Maury now doing the, we want to have more youth on the team and blah, blah, blah. It's like, oh, yeah, that's why you, that's why you have Joe Embiid and Paul George. All like the, all like the spin. Um, but that is, I think, I, I've used this analogy a couple of times. I think that is the ceiling for most floors between the ceiling and the floor team.

• 1:38:33Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:38:33Bill Simmons?

  You could tell me twenty wins, you could tell me like fifty two.

• 1:38:36Speaker 05

  Oh, guess what? I tried fifty last year and.

• 1:38:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you lost.

• 1:38:40Speaker 05

  I'm not gonna tell you what hole it went into on my, my orifices, but it still hurts. Still hurts. I'm still haven't recovered.

• 1:38:48Bill Simmons?

  They're, uh, they're forty two and a half.

• 1:38:52Speaker 05

  Sure. Whatever.

• 1:38:53Bill Simmons?

  I wouldn't, anyone who bets that just has a gambling problem.

• 1:38:56Speaker 05

  That's, that's right.

• 1:38:58Bill Simmons?

  As I just flat out, I, I have an issue. That's like when Sal's betting on like the Singapore Open when there's no football.

• 1:39:07Speaker 05

  Or whatever this like, you know, uh, German League Soccer, I think he goes out sometimes. Tennis.

• 1:39:13Bill Simmons?

  He definitely a hundred percent does that sometimes. Your Wizards, by the way, 21 and a half for the over under. I kind of like the over.

• 1:39:20Speaker 05

  It's right at the number like 22. Okay. 21. Okay. Like that's a both of those are fair numbers. I don't know.

• 1:39:28Bill Simmons?

  They're just gonna have to keep trading veterans that might, might even show any sign of helping them or not.

• 1:39:34Speaker 05

  Well, you know what? Uh, you missed this, by the way, you and Zach missed this. The obvious answer for Houston is CJ McCollum. He's sitting right there. He's extremely available and he would go there and immediately, I might even argue that he is, he's at least, uh, an equal to Fred VanVliet. I don't know if he's, uh, an, an upgrade, but he's at least treading water. Competency wise, um, uh, act, you know, offensive acumen wise, leadership wise. CJ McCollum and KD, that's pretty fucking good.

• 1:40:10Bill Simmons?

  Didn't they beef once about CJ? Didn't, didn't he, they had a podcast like seven years ago and he's talked about how they could have beaten the title. And Kevin Durant was like, you mean over the Warriors? Like, do you remember that moment? There's something funny that happened with them.

• 1:40:25Speaker 05

  You're right.

• 1:40:27Bill Simmons?

  Wait, so CJ McCollum, who's on the Washington Wizards somehow, I keep thinking you have him on your team. That's so weird.

• 1:40:34Speaker 05

  For at least five minutes, he's on our team.

• 1:40:36Bill Simmons?

  So you're saying VanVliet makes 24 million a year and CJ makes 30.

• 1:40:44Bill Simmons?

  That's tough to trade VanVliet. He's like the leader of the team though. I guess he's out for, he's out for the year, but.

• 1:40:49Speaker 05

  He's not gonna play. They need players. They're trying to win. Like they're, you know, they're in the top five of winning the NBA title. They're in the top three of winning the Western Conference without VanVliet.

• 1:41:00Bill Simmons?

  They trade him there in like January and then like Washington waves him maybe, maybe he's got one of those deals where he can, I don't know.

• 1:41:08Speaker 05

  Whatever it takes.

• 1:41:08Bill Simmons?

  Clear option for year two.

• 1:41:10Speaker 05

  Anything is possible in the NBA. Just ask Kawhi. What's cold?

• 1:41:17Bill Simmons?

  It's cold to just, the guy trades his ACL and it's like, hey, bad news. We've traded you to Washington. You'll finish your rehab there. I mean, that's it.

• 1:41:25Speaker 05

  What do you think? I mean, how do you, how about Isaiah Thomas? Do you think Isaiah Thomas, what the Celtics did to him?

• 1:41:30Bill Simmons?

  That was cold. I didn't feel good about the Isaiah Thomas thing. Any other storylines or any other NBA storylines you're excited about?

• 1:41:38Speaker 05

  I'm a little bit, I want to, I want to pour some, some settle down juice on the Golden State Warriors situation.

• 1:41:46Bill Simmons?

  Which part?

• 1:41:46Speaker 05

  Well, the, the, the news this week that they, they took care of Kaminga and they got the, the Al Horford deal done. And now they, they really excited. They're looking, they think they're in that upper echelon. They think that they're among the, they think that if they had that team that went 24 and seven down the stretch, you know, that's the, that's the identity. Okay. All right. Let's see. But what's, I, I, I'm, count me mildly skeptical.

• 1:42:12Bill Simmons?

  Forty five and a half over for them.

• 1:42:14Speaker 05

  Perfect number. Forty five and a half is a perfect number for them.

• 1:42:19Bill Simmons?

  I think my favorite so far, I don't want to step on the pod. Charlotte, 26 and a half. I've been staring at.

• 1:42:30Speaker 05

  Which way you could play it?

• 1:42:32Bill Simmons?

  Over.

• 1:42:33Speaker 05

  Wow. Let me hear why.

• 1:42:36Bill Simmons?

  They're going to be really fun for the first two months of the season. I don't know. I like the guys on their team. Remember last year, we really liked Brooklyn?

• 1:42:45Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:42:45Bill Simmons?

  Before the year as a like, ah, that team's not bad. Like they have professional basketball players and, and then we were right. And then they immediately and frantically had to trade a lot of those guys to get them off the team.

• 1:42:58Speaker 05

  They hit their over.

• 1:42:59Bill Simmons?

  Hit the over. Yeah.

• 1:43:00Speaker 05

  We did. They did hit their over.

• 1:43:02Bill Simmons?

  I think Charlotte, um, first of all, they're not going to, I don't, they're, they're going to be too competent to, uh, To potentially try, like they don't really have anyone to train. They have young guys.

• 1:43:13Speaker 05

  This is Kneppel. This is you, you, your boy. This is, I understand what's going on.

• 1:43:18Bill Simmons?

  This is Brandon Miller, year three, coming back.

• 1:43:20Speaker 05

  All right.

• 1:43:21Bill Simmons?

  This is Miles Bridges. This is Grant Williams that eventually come back. This is LaMelo trying to play 60 games. I don't know. I think they have some talent.

• 1:43:30Speaker 05

  The East, they do have talent.

• 1:43:32Bill Simmons?

  Because the difference with them versus your team is you're gonna be trying to get rid of guys that can help you. Charlotte can't really, Charlotte can't do that. And I don't even think they'd mind if they were good.

• 1:43:43Speaker 05

  Who's their starting center? I, I can't pull it off. They traded every center. They traded all their centers.

• 1:43:48Bill Simmons?

  Listen, that's where it becomes an issue.

• 1:43:53Bill Simmons?

  I'll give you, I'll give you their, I'll give you their team. Hold on. It's, it's looking like it might be a Plumlee.

• 1:44:05Speaker 05

  Sure. That's phenomenal. God bless them.

• 1:44:10Bill Simmons?

  There's a Plumlee involved. Liam McNeely's on this team.

• 1:44:14Speaker 05

  Congratulations. Oh, yeah.

• 1:44:17Bill Simmons?

  Spencer Dinwiddie's on this team.

• 1:44:20Speaker 05

  The Kaku is my favorite. Dinshitty.

• 1:44:23Bill Simmons?

  The, one of the Martin Twins is on here. Josh Green.

• 1:44:26Speaker 05

  I wish him the best of luck.

• 1:44:28Bill Simmons?

  If you want me to. For a center.

• 1:44:30Speaker 05

  A 27. I'll bet I, okay, I don't mind a 27.

• 1:44:33Bill Simmons?

  Well, here's the thing. This is why I bring it up. I think one of these East teams will be, just because there's so many bad East teams, one of these teams will be like, all right, fine. We'll be the one that wins 32 games and goes 32 and 50. I would say they're a candidate.

• 1:44:47Speaker 05

  Is there any information out there about whether or not Malik Beasley is going to be allowed to play basketball in the NBA this coming season?

• 1:44:54Bill Simmons?

  Not a lot.

• 1:44:56Speaker 05

  Not a lot of information. And, and Detroit can't re-sign him? They, they don't have the cap room anymore?

• 1:45:03Bill Simmons?

  I think they can re-sign him and they do have the cap.

• 1:45:06Speaker 05

  Oh, oh, okay. Well, that so that this is.

• 1:45:09Bill Simmons?

  It's weird. They closed the investigation and then the investigation doesn't seem like it's totally over.

• 1:45:14Speaker 05

  Well, because the NBA is conducting its own investigation after the district attorney's office cleared him. So I'm excited to hear what the NBA comes up with, but the district attorney's office didn't find.

• 1:45:27Bill Simmons?

  I think the NBA is way more interested in figuring out, figuring out this Clippers thing. So it doesn't linger around the next four months of the season and affect the All-Star game and all that shit. How did you feel about Nikola Jovic signing a four-year rookie extension with the Heat for $62.4 million? Do you think that would be in our worst contracts draft with, with big was in, in early March?

• 1:45:55Speaker 05

  I mean, it's an amazing job by him and his agent.

• 1:46:00Speaker 05

  The Heat, what are we going to do with the Heat? I don't have an opinion on Jovic. I mean, what?

• 1:46:05Bill Simmons?

  Can I give you some Jovic stats? He's played 107 of a possible 246 games.

• 1:46:10Speaker 05

  I mean, this, how can you have an opinion on him? Go ahead.

• 1:46:13Bill Simmons?

  He averaged a career high 10.7 points last year. I just thought, I just thought when we, now that we're into the second apron era, I thought teams would start to be way more careful about these guys that aren't impact guys. Even the Kaminga thing, I don't feel great about for the Warriors.

• 1:46:31Speaker 05

  That, that's a just, that's a placeholder.

• 1:46:33Bill Simmons?

  24 million?

• 1:46:34Speaker 05

  That's the, that's the.

• 1:46:35Bill Simmons?

  I get it, but.

• 1:46:35Speaker 05

  That's the trade. That's the, the perfect trade contract.

• 1:46:38Bill Simmons?

  Who's trading for that? What, what team? Would you want your team to trade for Kaminga for?

• 1:46:43Speaker 05

  My team's not competitive.

• 1:46:43Bill Simmons?

  24 million? Then you have to pay him again?

• 1:46:45Speaker 05

  There will be a competitive team out there that, that sees that they have to do the audition that they've to, to date.

• 1:46:53Bill Simmons?

  There's only one team dumb enough and they are also in California and they play in the state capital of Sacramento.

• 1:47:02Speaker 05

  Oh, wow.

• 1:47:02Bill Simmons?

  It's the only team dumb enough to talk themselves into 120 million for four years for Kaminga.

• 1:47:08Speaker 05

  What makes sense to me, and I'm not kidding, is the Clippers. I think the Clippers, Kaminga could work for the Clippers. I really do think that with what they have, uh, and that they have parts of.

• 1:47:17Bill Simmons?

  After Kawhi's banned from the NBA?

• 1:47:19Speaker 05

  Whatever happens ultimately with Kawhi. The Heat are interesting at 37 and a half.

• 1:47:27Speaker 05

  They feel like they have a move. That's a place, that's a place Kamiga can land.

• 1:47:31Bill Simmons?

  Well, this is, don't they have, they don't have their pick this year? That's the other thing is these picks are so complicated with, with who has whose pick? You know, like San Antonio has, they can swap with Atlanta, but now Atlanta is good. So this, that pick that they had that they thought was going to be awesome, they don't have it.

• 1:47:53Speaker 05

  We said we weren't going to do it. We're too far down the rabbit hole. We're talking about pick swaps between the Spurs and the Hawks. We should stop.

• 1:48:00Bill Simmons?

  Clippers, the Clippers.

• 1:48:02Speaker 05

  We should stop.

• 1:48:05Bill Simmons?

  The Clippers could either send their first to Philly or OKC. They don't get to keep it. But they're going to be good. I don't know. There's a million things. You're right. We should stop. House, I hope we do well on Ringer 107.

• 1:48:19Speaker 05

  You and me both. I'm knocking on wood.

• 1:48:21Bill Simmons?

  And I hope the Rams win tonight in the future and I hope the Red Sox win tonight against my most hated team, the New York Yankees.

• 1:48:28Speaker 05

  Respectfully, I am rooting for the Red Sox because I can't under any circumstances root for the Yankees ever.

• 1:48:33Bill Simmons?

  Thanks, House.

• 1:48:34Speaker 05

  Yeah, my pleasure.

• 1:48:35Bill Simmons?

  Good job by you as always.

• 1:48:37Speaker 05

  Thank you.

• 1:48:38Bill Simmons?

  All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Hench and House. Thanks to Eduardo and Gahow as well. Don't forget new Prestige TV podcast coming this weekend on Sunday. New rewatchables coming on Monday. Enjoy the weekend. Have a great time. Keep a smile on your face. I'll see you Sunday. Cousin Sal will be going live on YouTube this Sunday, by the way. So, uh, live YouTube, Sunday, me and Sal. See you then.

• 1:49:15Bill Simmons?

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• 1:49:51Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, I like those guys, star in the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner Martin McDonagh. Writer-director of The Banshees of Minnehoshan and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island, Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys. Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters November 6th. Get tickets now.

• 1:50:36Bill Simmons?

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