#671 Whales Are EATING UP Bitcoin Supply w/ Will Clemente

Will Clemente is the Lead Insights Analyst at Blockware. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various onchain analytics. In this conversation, we discuss the bitcoin fundamentals, on-chain metrics, what happened in the past week, and what the on-chain data is telling us to be prepared for moving forward. ======================= If you haven’t started building your crypto portfolio on Okcoin, there’s no better time. They’re one of the fastest growing global exchanges around and they have some promotions happening right now to help even more people be part of the future of finance. If you have an account already, you can split $100 in BTC with a friend when you invite them to sign up for Okcoin if they buy $100 of crypto in the first month. The more friends who sign up and buy, the more BTC you get. And I always recommend dollar-cost averaging as a way for investors to have more control over their average price when building their portfolio. Now you can automate dollar-cost averaging with completely fee-free daily, weekly, or monthly recurring buys on Okcoin until November 1. That’s no fees at all on your purchases until the holidays. Get started on the web or on their new super easy-to-use app at okcoin.com/pomp ======================= Gemini is a leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange, wallet, and custodian that makes it simple and secure to buy, sell, store, and earn bitcoin, ether, and over 40 other cryptocurrencies. Offering industry-leading security, insurance and uptime, Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. Open a free account in under 3 minutes at gemini.com/pomp and get $20 of bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within 30 days. ======================= AppSumo is the leading digital marketplace for entrepreneurs, and a great way to get your product in front of 1M+ entrepreneurs, founders, and small businesses. AppSumo is giving away their entire $1 million Black Friday marketing budget to creators. If you have an ebook, online course, template, or any other digital product — this is for you. List your product on AppSumo between September 15th - November 17th and the first 400 offers to go live will receive $1,000, the next 2,000 to list a product and go live get $250. And everyone who lists gets entered to be one of 10 lucky winners of $10k! Go to AppSumo.com/pomp to list your product today and cash in on this amazing deal.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is the Lead Insights Analyst at Blockware. He's quickly become one of my favorite writers in all things Bitcoin, including deep dives on various on-chain analytics. In this conversation, we discuss the Bitcoin fundamentals, the on-chain metrics, what happened this past week, and what the on-chain data is telling us to be prepared for moving forward. I really hope that you enjoy this conversation with Will, as I always do. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up is AppSumo. AppSumo is the leading digital marketplace for entrepreneurs and a great way to get your product in front of one-plus million entrepreneurs, founders, and small

• 0:47Anthony Pompliano?

  businesses. AppSumo is giving away their entire $1 million Black Friday marketing budget to creators. If you have an ebook, an online course, a template, or any other digital product, this is for you. You can list your product on AppSumo between September 15th and November 17th, and the first 400 offers to go live will receive $1,000. The next 2,000 to list a product and go live, get 250 bucks, and everyone who lists gets entered to be one of the 10 lucky winners of $10,000. Go to appsumo.com/pomp to list your product today and cash in on this amazing deal. Again, appsumo.com/pomp, or you can click on the link in the description as well. Appsumo.com/pomp.

• 1:29Anthony Pompliano?

  Next up is Gemini. They're a regulated cryptocurrency exchange wallet and custodian. Some might say they're actually an industry-leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange wallet and custodian. That makes it simple and secure to buy, sell, store, and earn Bitcoin Ether and over 40 other cryptocurrencies. They offer an industry-leading security, insurance, and uptime. Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. You can open a free account in under 3 minutes at gemini.com/pomp and get $20 of Bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within the first 30 days. Again, takes 3 minutes when you go to gemini.com/pomp and you'll get $20 US dollars of Bitcoin after you trade. $100 or more within 30 days.

• 2:13Anthony Pompliano?

  Gemini.com/pomp. What are you waiting for? Let's go. Last but not least is OKCOIN. If you haven't started to build your crypto portfolio on OKCOIN, there's no better time. They're one of the fastest growing global exchanges around, and they have some promotions happening right now to help even more people start being a part of the future of finance. If you have an account already, you can split $100 in Bitcoin with a friend when you invite them to sign up for OKCOIN. If they buy 100 bucks of crypto in the first month, you invite them, they buy $100 of crypto, you both split a free $100 from OKCOIN. The more friends who sign up and buy, the more Bitcoin you get. And I always recommend dollar-cost averaging as a way for investors to have more control over their average price when building their portfolio.

• 2:58Anthony Pompliano?

  Now you can automate dollar-cost averaging with completely fee-free daily, weekly, or monthly recurring buys on OKCOIN until November 1st. That's right, those automatic dollar-cost averaging purchases are completely free of fees, whether you're doing it daily, weekly, or monthly, until November 1st. That's no fees at all on your purchases until the holidays. Get started on the web or on their super easy-to-use app at OKCOIN.com/pomp. Again, OKCOIN.com/pomp. All right, let's get this episode with Will. I hope you guys enjoy this one.

• 3:32Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 3:55Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up, man?

• 3:56Speaker 02

  Hey, guys, how's it going?

• 3:58Anthony Pompliano?

  We're doing good, how are you?

• 3:59Speaker 02

  Can't complain, I was just sitting back watching Jack. It's going to be hard to follow that up.

• 4:04Anthony Pompliano?

  Listen, everyone knows when the young wizard comes on, you got charts and you got good news for us. So let's get into the charts first and then we'll get a little college update too, since we haven't done that in a while. But first, let's start with the UTXO realized price distribution or URPD. Help us understand, we've been looking at this for a while now and it seems like we're getting kind of a continuation of the existing trends.

• 4:29Speaker 02

  When you look at this, there's several different clusters of volume essentially. So you're looking at different zones of cost basis for market participants. And right now, we're kind of sitting right in between the cluster between 30K and 40K. And then also the cluster between like 40, 30K and 50K. And so I'm looking for either, you know, that previous cluster to, you know, serve as support or the upper cluster to serve as kind of short-term resistance overhead. But I don't think we'll stay in between for long. Usually whenever we get between these clusters, it tends to gravitate one way or the other.

• 5:11Speaker 02

  But that, you know, that 38, 39K seems like kind of a really strong line in the sand there.

• 5:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And help people understand like this realized price distribution. Basically, this is showing where people bought their Bitcoin. And so when we're below it, it's unlikely that they're going to be selling it because they'd be selling at a loss. And if we're above it, that they would actually be selling at a profit. Is that kind of the way to read this?

• 5:33Speaker 02

  The way I'm also looking at it is if you have a zone of distribution above you, then that's going to serve as resistance and then below support. And so you want to get as much of the volume below you as you can. Because there's, you know, just natural market psychology as you move up, the overhead supply is going to be sold to an extent because people look to take profits as prices move back up to where their initial cost basis is. So kind of, I just see it as. Areas for, for, you know, uh, where, where prices going to interact pretty heavily, especially like when we get up to like the edge of one of these clusters. Um, that tends to be where, you know, price has really heavy resistance, or when you get to the bottom of those, we, we see pretty strong support.

• 6:17Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. So let's also look at this net realized profit loss chart that we have, uh, in terms of, uh, we're, we're back in kind of the green here. Help us understand what this is showing us.

• 6:27Speaker 02

  This is just looking at the net realized profit losses, it says in the chart on every given day. So you look at all the profit and loss and what's the, you know, what's the net between the two, what's the, um, you know, when you subtract the two, what, you know, what, what, uh, state is, is the market trading in? And so what you get is from this week earlier, you know, we had two consecutive days of, of $650 million of net realized losses. Uh, this is the first back-to-back consecutive, uh, pair of days that we had, uh, you know, net realized losses since like early July. So, you know, we had a, a significant little sell-off that the, that the, uh, the market absorbed. Uh, you know, a lot of that was driven by some, some, uh, you know, de-risking behavior in, in traditional markets.

• 7:11Speaker 02

  Um, and we'll also get into our so for metric, which is very similar, but you want to now see the market, um, hold a, a state of profit. Cause that's basically saying that people are selling, you know, their coins from below and the market's able to absorb that versus on Monday and Tuesday, we actually had supply from, that was, well, you know, accumulated above where price was currently that, that we're doing us.

• 7:35Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then when we look at something like the futures open interest, what are you seeing here?

• 7:39Speaker 02

  The big difference between the sell-off or whatever, two, three weeks ago and earlier this week was you see, you know, earlier, uh, that, that the first sell-off was just a complete drop-off in futures open interest and that was because it was driven by a liquidation cascade. So you had, you know, spiking open interest, uh, spiking funding rates. And then as, you know, uh, spot being in the sell-off that kind of triggered, um, the stop losses and it has this cascading effect on the market. And, and so you'll see that just completely dropped off and that first sell-off. This recent one seems a bit more controlled. It just kind of seems like a risk-off behavior, uh, from active managers and, and traders. So.

• 8:18Speaker 02

  I think there's a, you know, a little distinguishing between the two that that needs to kind of be acknowledged there where this wasn't necessarily for selling. It just seems like it was, you know, correlation to traditional markets. You know, we saw the S and P so off they really heavily correlated to the S and P over the last month or two. So not surprising to see some, some, you know, de-risking in Bitcoin as well.

• 8:41Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then funding rates are negative right now. It looks like.

• 8:45Speaker 02

  Yeah. And this is something, you know, we've been talking about for a long time. This is the mechanism that pegs the the perp contracts to spot. Uh, when you have prolonged negative funding, it's bullish. When you've prolonged positive funding, that's seen as a, as a bearish thing. And so we kind of had these different regimes when we were, you know, in the summer in that little mini bear phase. I've had prolonged negative funding. Uh, and then over the last, you know, month or month or two, uh, we've had pretty prolonged, uh, positive funding, including a spike between, as you mentioned, that that liquidation cascade two or three weeks ago. Uh, but over the last week or so, we've, we've had, uh, just straight negative funding. Um, so, so I want to see that continue because that means um, either A spots lead futures or also the futures market is, is, uh, in aggregate, you know, having

• 9:30Speaker 02

  strong demand to go short. So if you're going to have a, you know, you want to see the price rally while traders continue to, to be in disbelief in our shorting that rally.

• 9:38Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then Sopra, which is, uh, I feel like you, me and Sopra have been hanging out all summer long, buddy. Uh, talk to me about, uh, what you're seeing with Sopra.

• 9:47Speaker 02

  This is the, you know, net, uh, profit state of the market. Essentially, uh, it's a ratio between all the coins trading on a given day. Uh, and so what you're looking at is you have this one line and that's your neutral virtual below. Uh, one is you're trading, you know, in a, in a state of loss above in a state of profit. And so in, in bear markets, this can be a good metric to use to, to fade rallies where whenever Sopra comes up and retests one, that's a good time to perhaps, you know, uh, hedge yourself or, or take some risk off the table. And then in, uh, you know, broader bull market trends, uh, buying along these retests of one, um, is, is have served to be, you know, good kind of buy the dip opportunities.

• 10:28Speaker 02

  And so what you see is, you know, once again during that summer regime, very similar to funding negative, we also had sober below one, came back to, you know, retested one as support. And then since then, we've been trading above that one threshold. But this week we actually dipped below and recovered, but want to see now us one, one now see us, you know, come back down, retest that one as support and then kind of stabilize above the one perhaps over the next week or two. You know, we, we dipped below one before in broader bull market trends, but what you don't want to see is us, you know, come back below one at, you know, and then retest it and then get rejected. That's, that's what you would want to see. So, so far I've reclaimed that, that state of profit, but now we're looking over the

• 11:12Speaker 02

  next week or two to see if we can retest it as support and then also stay below.

• 11:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And one of the things that I think you and I have talked about in the past and you've been doing a great job of is not just reporting on and kind of covering or analyzing existing metrics, but you've also been creating a number of new metrics. And one of those is this idea of an illiquid supply floor. So describe what is the illiquid supply floor? Like, how does it work? And then tell us what you're seeing in the chart.

• 11:38Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is something I created this week with my, my buddy, Matt. He helped me code because I can't code to save my life. Essentially what this is, is is Plan B stock to flow model, but instead of using circulating supply, you're using illiquid supply. And so for anybody who's not familiar, illiquid supply is defined as supply held by entities who have very low spending history. So they take in a lot of coins, don't move many out. And then liquid supply is defined as entities who are, you know, taking coins in, but moving a lot out. So those are like kind of the speculators in the market. And then highly liquid is probably like market makers, those kind of entities. But the liquid guys are really the, the long-term, you know, investors, the, the strong hands that we, we all like to, you know, joke around about.

• 12:22Speaker 02

  And so essentially what this is trying to do is create a floor based off of Bitcoin's real-time scarcity. And so you'll see like we have dipped briefly below the model before, like in mid 2017, very, very briefly at the bottom of 2018, and then also recently over summer, we, we went below, but we never stayed below briefly. And so although maybe, you know, this model isn't perfect to the tick, you also see like after 2013, we can Back down and retested the floor there. It has served as a, as a good proxy. You know, for perhaps where, you know, long-term holders have, have set that price for. We also see like, um, last year after September, we, we retested the floor and bounced right off of it into the bull market. So,

• 13:05Speaker 02

  I think, you know, with this being, you know, with this being said, the floor currently sits at thirty eight thousand, three hundred. Um, when we had that correction, uh, last week, we came back down to like thirty thou- thirty nine thousand, five hundred, I believe. So it came pretty close to the floor. Um, but you know, I think, I think this is a good, uh, area to, to say, you know, uh, the, the, you know, long-term holders have kind of support here and it's a good time to kind of average and supervise, you know, thirty eight, thirty nine K is also, uh, you know, pretty strong, uh, technical support level, uh, as well as, you know, you see some bids set down there. Um, so like a little bit of, um, confluence there, but, yeah, that, that, that's, that's essentially what the model is trying to do is looking at the behavior of these long-term investors and trying to kind of estimate where they've had a support at.

• 13:50Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, it is fantastic. So great work on that one. Uh, supply shock ratios, we've been talking a bunch about this, uh, and it looks like we've got kind of this bullish divergence that's playing out here. So what are you seeing on this?

• 14:01Speaker 02

  Right. We have three different metrics here. Um, the blue one, which,

• 14:06Speaker 02

  you know, I, I talk about this one all the time. This is the, uh, illiquid supply ratio. Uh, essentially this is just capturing the movement of coins from those liquid entities, uh, to the illiquid entities. So movement of coins from, from weak to strong hands. Uh, the, the red line is the movement of coins from, uh, highly liquid to liquid entities. So these are kind of the intermediate term investors. Purple line is the change slide shock ratio of movement of coins from, uh, well, it's, it's essentially a ratio of, uh, the coins available to be bought on exchanges that, to the amount of coins that aren't available to be bought on exchanges. And so right now, as you mentioned, we have this kind of bullish divergence. And this is very similar to the, the, the divergence that we had in like June or July.

• 14:46Speaker 02

  I remember, um, you know, very vividly, like being in Hawaii and me, and me and my lady created this and I did the episode. I remember one week and I was like in the Hawaiian shirt when I created the metric. And this is back when we were like, you know, Crypto Twitter was just completely desperate on in like sentiment was garbage. And I remember we put this out and we were saying, yeah, there's this divergence and we're expecting some kind of a supply shock to play out. People were like on-chain is hopium. This is all nonsense. And then we had 10 straight updates. And it's interesting because that divergence was a little bit larger in terms of like how long it took to play out. And it was this kind of slow grind up, whereas now the metrics almost had this impulse up while prices kind of had an impulse down.

• 15:30Speaker 02

  So I find that interesting. Just kind of the the slope of the divergence is different. But yeah, going back, it's hard to find any times where where price hasn't, you know, over time reacted to the underlying fundamentals, although sometimes it can take time to play out as we saw in the summer. Also, like this was a good leading indicator of the drawdown before, you know, we moved out in May. I didn't have the metric at the time, but you know, if I started to see similar behavior where these metrics started to decline pretty heavily, then I would turn bearish. But for now, you know, as you see the chart, we just have this big impulse up while price is moving down. So, you know, expecting that divergence to kind of play out in the intermediate term.

• 16:14Speaker 02

  Exchange flows have looked slightly bearish this week, you could say. 4,586 BTC in aggregate put down to exchanges, just about $190 million. A lot of these inflows came to Binance, especially on Monday and Tuesday when we had some of that de-risking behavior. But you know, when you zoom out, it's, you know, you have these little, you know, down draws. But overall, you know, we've been in an uptrend since mid-July, but you know, if it changes, then we'll be tracking it, so.

• 16:42Anthony Pompliano?

  What about whales? It seems like whales are just gobbling up every Bitcoin they possibly can find.

• 16:47Speaker 02

  In this newsletter, I tried to focus on some of the more macro trends and kind of zoom it out. But I don't know the exact number that they bought this week, but you'll see, you know, whales in a general sense buy into these early parts of the rallies, you know, obviously because they're the big buyers. So they pretty much are the ones that are initiating the rallies. And then they also begin to trim their holdings into strength. Retail substance. So you'll see they bought really heavily between the two 2013 double pumps. Um. They started buying into the bear market after 2014, um, started buying in, you know, the bottom of the 2018, moving into that little mini 2019, uh, bull run. Also after COVID or right around COVID, they started buying heavily.

• 17:28Speaker 02

  And then they started selling, you know, uh, into the, the peak in the second half of 2013, uh, into the strength in 2017. They sold the top in 2019. They also sold the top in, in earlier this year. So following the, you know, the behavior of Wells has, has been a pretty decent strategy, I would say. Um, and you know, they've started buying heavily since, since mid-July and, and you're seeing, you know, just continued accumulation from them.

• 17:52Anthony Pompliano?

  And then retail, it seems like they also are getting in the game as well.

• 17:56Speaker 02

  And this is once again, you know, very, very macro, which you see is kind of in the middle of these broader, you know, uh, uh, bull runs, 20, 2011 to 2013 double pumps, 2017. Um, you see these large upticks in the supply held by retail. So what I'm doing here is taking all the entities less than 10 BTC and then dividing that by overall circulating supply. So you're getting a portion of supply held by the little guys, essentially, and we call these guys the minnows. Um, and, and what you see is, you know, since like mid to late, uh, Fed, or I'm sorry, mid to late, uh, May, they've been buying in, in kind of macro since you're seeing that uptick that's similar to, uh, previous cycles.

• 18:37Speaker 02

  But it's, it's not as, the slope isn't as steep. Um, like if you look at the chart, you see these really steep upticks. So I find that interesting. Uh, but yeah, nonetheless, you, you're seeing that same behavior that you see kind of in the middle of each cycle from, from these, uh, smaller guys.

• 18:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then if we skip ahead to, uh, looking at the hodl waves, uh, kind of last chart that we have here. How do you think about, um, kind of, one, what is the hodl waves telling us? But then two, like, are there any takeaways or implementations, uh, or things that people can kind of say, hey?

• 19:08Speaker 02

  The charts tell me this, here's what I should be doing. They're basically showing you the, um, by different age brackets. So you have from 24 hours, day or week, you know, week to month, et cetera, et cetera, all the way up to 10 years, over 10 years. Um, you're looking at the amount of supply that hasn't moved in each of those denominated cohorts. Um, so you can, you know, in a, in a broader sense, and we've talked about this many times before, um, what you see is that long-term holders accumulate into weakness, they accumulate into the bear market. Um, and, and they kind of lead us into the early phase of the bull market. As, you know, short-term holders begin to leave into these bearish phases of the market and then they come step in and, and push the price up and, and uh, basically buy the long-term holders' bags the whole way up into the bull line.

• 19:52Speaker 02

  Uh, and so you see that in, in short-term holder's supply and long-term holder's supply, but also here in the hodlage. Um, and so what you see is like, as we head into the, into the, uh, bear market, you see that the longer-term guys take up a larger portion of supply, move into the bull run, uh, the, the shorter-term guys take up a larger portion of supply, right? Um, and so right now, um, over, over 93% of supply hasn't moved in at least a month, which is an all-time high. Um, and so I just look at this as another way to illustrate, you know, these broader supply dynamics where this isn't going to have an effect on price the next week, the next two weeks, but when we talk about what's going to happen over the next couple of months, you need to pair this with a lot of the illiquid supply data, uh, all these different, you know, ways of measuring it that we've been looking at, you know, talk about

• 20:35Speaker 02

  illiquid supply, RSI, liquid supply shock ratio, I just created another metric using moving averages of illiquid supply. Um, you know, a lot of these different things, you look at long-term holder's supply reaching all-time highs and also the liquid supply is at all-time highs. Uh, all these supply dynamics are pointing to positive price action over the next couple of months. And so, yeah, we may have these short-term derivative-led moves, we have these short-term, you know, uh, macro, ma- macro, macro de-risking events, uh, that cause these short-term drawdowns. But when we talk about, you know, what, what is Bitcoin's price going to look like in the next two, three months? You know, we're talking about late Q4 into, into Q1, I think you're going to see much higher prices.

• 21:15Speaker 02

  Uh, as Jack said before I, before I hopped on, um, you know, y- y- you're seeing large, you know, large buyers, um, you know, you were talking about whales earlier, um, also these long-term guys. And then anecdotally, you know, like, I, I thought for a while that a lot of the- To talk about institutions was perhaps, you know, stretching the truth a bit. You know, I've been working at a Bitcoin company for almost two months now. Like I can just confirm anecdotally that all that stuff is true. And you see that in the data as well, right? We're seeing, like I said, the buyer. So. You know, I, I think we're going to see much higher prices over the coming months and who the hell knows if we have these short-term brought downs. You know, I, I don't really care to be quite honest, but I'll be, I'll be following the, the data to try to help people be prepared to an extent in my newsletter.

• 21:59Speaker 02

  But that's what I'm really focused on is, you know, where is Bitcoin's price going to be at in November, December?

• 22:03Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And, and when you start to think about it, if we just zoom out here, it seems like, one, you're still very bullish. Two, there feels like there's a bunch of large buyers that are coming into the market, many of them who, I'm assuming that you and I both know that are unexpected or much bigger deals than people would, would think of. And then on top of that, all of the on-chain metrics continue to suggest that we're in this bull market and the bull market is, you know, kind of just getting started really to some weird way, not necessarily being near a top or headed into a bear market.

• 22:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think some of these metrics are pointing towards the move out of a bear phase into a, into a bull market. You know, similar to coming out of the bottom of 2018, you know, see some similar patterns there. Also, you know, coming out of the, the middle of the two 2013 double pumps. You know, I think when you're following these, these fundamental investor behaviors, you see, you see these patterns, right? And you're starting to see the patterns that resemble kind of the, the early phase of another major run up. And so to be quite, to be quite frank, I would be surprised if we didn't see all-time highs by the end of the year.

• 23:15Speaker 02

  I mean, I think that's conservative, but I'd be surprised if we didn't see all-time highs, you know, by like mid to late November, to be quite honest.

• 23:22Anthony Pompliano?

  So you think that we'll see it, you know, here in the next, call it six to Weeks or so is what you're thinking.

• 23:28Speaker 02

  Maybe.

• 23:29Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, and again.

• 23:30Speaker 02

  Be conservative, I would say indeed.

• 23:33Anthony Pompliano?

  Okay.

• 23:33Speaker 02

  We can be conservative.

• 23:35Anthony Pompliano?

  So, so and and part of this is like less about like people should be trading on this information. It's more so like the data is what the data is today and the data changes, which I think a lot of people don't realize either. The week ago and three days from now go look at the data and it says something completely different or there's been changes, whatever. So it's important to actually have an open mind to be willing to change your mind as the data changes, correct?

• 23:52Speaker 02

  Yeah, for sure. Like, one example is whenever I whenever I show like the liquid supply chart, I mean, people always say, oh, well, you know, liquid supply is at the same level that it was in April. And it's like, yes, but then it started going down. And so once it started going down, you you would turn various, right? I mean, you just follow what the data is telling you and, you know, the data is just continued to to show stronger and stronger trends. Um, you know, we've been, Poppy and I have been tracking these trends where you talk about whales, uh, and your liquid supply, long-term holders. I mean, we've been tracking these things since May. And I think that's part of the reason why people are like, well, this this stuff is all hoppy. I'm it's like, I'm just reading you the data, right?

• 24:35Speaker 02

  The data, the data is strong. Uh, and, you know, as as long as these trends continue, like my my outlook will will stay the same. If it changes, I'll I'll change, you know, my outlook for the coming months. But yeah, I think we're, I think we're in a strong spot here.

• 24:49Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, I I think that makes a ton of sense. John, you got any questions?

• 24:51Speaker 02

  Uh, yeah, well, so this morning there was obviously a pretty big sell off, uh, because of the China stuff. What did you see on chain this morning? Nothing crazy. I, you know, I saw some coins being moved on to exchanges, especially like some of the, uh, I sort of generalize these exchanges and say they're certain like geographic locations, but you know, like finance, uh, Yobi, OKX. I saw some influence there, which perhaps represent, you know, like, uh, eastern eastern buyers, uh, I'm sorry. Eastern sellers, um, but nothing like crazy. I think, you know, it's just another short term. I saw a bit of liquidations this morning. Nothing crazy. It just seems like, you know, the market

• 25:31Speaker 02

  overreacting a bit to news. You know, we've seen China ban Bitcoin 12, 12 million times. Um, I, I don't think that unless there's some news that I'm missing. I, I don't see this as, as any different than that. Um, yeah.

• 25:46Anthony Pompliano?

  Any other questions, John? No, it's good to hear. All time highs coming soon.

• 25:52Anthony Pompliano?

  I love it. I love it. All right. Well, what's going on with college? Uh, are you still, uh, enjoying it even though you're not going to classes or what's, uh, what, what's up in, uh, in, uh, life?

• 26:02Speaker 02

  Yeah, man. I'm loving it here. Um, you know, I was suffering in Blackberry almost two months ago now. So I like all the people there, you know, having a good time. Uh, kind of having my own schedule and yeah, you know, having some fun, of course. It's, it's funny, you know, like, this is a little off topic, but you're having all these young guys on like that, you know, around, you know, college and you talk about Dylan, right? And, you know, Dylan, Dylan's similar to me. Um, he dropped out way before me, but he, he lives around all his college buddies. He's just like getting all the benefits of being in college and he's not even in school. And he's had Jack on and how old is it? What is Jack like 26, 27 or something like that?

• 26:37Anthony Pompliano?

  27, I think.

• 26:39Speaker 02

  Yeah. Okay. So it's like, you know, boomers, watch out. All, all the young guys are coming. You know, I, I think about this a lot in, in 15 or 20 years. Even if, you know, which I think just because of what's going on with, with macro, like Bitcoins has a really strong setup for the next 10 years. Um, but you know, even, even if that's not the case, and there's something unexpected happens, like over time, the, the zoomers are going to choose to denominate in Bitcoin. And like over time, the boomers are going to retire. We're going to become the, um, the, the predominant earners in, in the economy. And, you know, we, we, we choose to, to denominate in, in Bitcoin. Um, and so I think, you know, that's a trend that is just not going to change. You're going to continue to see these, these older guys.

• 27:24Speaker 02

  You know, whether it's retire or like not to be grim, but you know, as as they move into nursing homes and and die off like over time, you know, the the younger guys are gonna come in and and replace them and you know, we're we're very savvy with with, you know, uh, you know, technology and um, we under, you know, understand this whole concept of of digital scarcity. And so, you know, Bitcoin is just inevitable. Like, you know, meeting all these other young guys over the last couple of months and um, you see Jack like, you know, Jack's like a big inspiration. Just oh, you know, what he's done, especially using Bitcoin way before Bitcoin was a big, you know, I got into Bitcoin in twenty twenty. So by then Bitcoin was already a pretty established asset, you know, Jack got into Bitcoin years ago and, you know, seeing what what he's really

• 28:08Speaker 02

  um, done is is pretty inspiring for for a lot of the other young guys out there, you know. I think a lot of us look at this and say, um, you know, Bitcoin is so new and and the the you look at the TAM of Bitcoin and we're just wearing it now simply and um, you know, there's so much upside in that rather than going into boomer finance and all the edge has been extracted from the market. Um, you just get basically be a normal analyst like every other person and, you know, you come into Bitcoin and I get to create new metrics and and basically I have like X-ray vision on the market unlike anything that you have in traditional finance. I mean, the opportunities here, whether, you know, you're interested in analysis or you want to build stuff, I mean, just

• 28:50Speaker 02

  look at Jack, you know, he he just decided he wanted to build something from his from his, you know, closet. And, you know, he just he just got it integrated with Twitter. So, um, you know, I I think for for a lot of these younger guys, you know, just hopefully if people see Jack especially, but also, you know, guys like me and Dylan and you know, like, if if you're young out there and then you want to get involved in Bitcoin, just go go for it, you know, just just get involved. Um, just, you know, start putting out content and, um, you know, the the community will will, uh, you know, recognize that. And I don't think anybody in the Bitcoin community cares about how old you are, what you look like. I mean, we've got people with like anime avatars that are like

• 29:30Speaker 02

  multimillionaires in the space. I mean, as long as you're putting out like quality content on Twitter, it'll it'll get recognized. And so, I don't know, I just kind of wanted to to use this to just, um, encourage any any of the younger guys out there to, you know, like, go ahead and and get involved, like, don't be hesitant to share your thoughts and.

• 29:48Anthony Pompliano?

  And I just get in there, you know. I always tell people that the future is created and built by young people, right? It's not people who have their minds hardened to the past or believe they know the answers to everything. It's always built and created by young people. So I think your message is dead on. All right, so we've got a whole bunch of stuff we're going to go over next week. We're going to have you back on Friday. Any weekend plans you got? That's all you had to say. No, stop, stop.

• 30:21Anthony Pompliano?

  You have fun, stay safe, don't do anything I would do, and we'll talk next Friday, buddy. Yes, sir. You guys take it easy. Thanks for having me on, as always. All right, later.