Easter “Truce” Lasts Less Than an Hour | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

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Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

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• 1:40Speaker 03

  Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here with Nick Mulroy, Jason Lyons, and I'm Dimitri Kontakos. Happy Easter to everybody who celebrates.

• 1:51Speaker 03

  A lot cooking, as usual. World falling apart at the seams, it seems like.

• 1:57Speaker 03

  Let's kick off with the Iran negotiations. We're shooting this on Saturday at 11 a.m. And they just wrapped up maybe an hour, an hour and a half ago and instantly on Iranian state TV, it said the talks were constructive. It was happening in Rome. There was some confusion last week about like, is it happening again? Is it in Rome or is it happening in Oman?

• 2:20Speaker 03

  As long as they're happening, I think it's a good, good thing. I mean, you have seen over the last week or so since like the it's come out where like they're talking about a Jipoa number 2.0. Like that's what I see a lot of people talking about it as. That this is crazy, like we shouldn't do this and stuff. And I get it. Some Iran hawks are Iran hawks and they're going to do what they need to do.

• 2:42Speaker 03

  But Mick, I wanted to ask you, because I'm sure you've been in like meetings like this, or at least like seen this go down, like how these talks go. Because they're saying that there's two, the two parties are in separate rooms and there's a mediator running between them both and stuff like that. And it seems to me like very odd, like these guys just can't sit in a room together. You, you know what I mean? Like, it just seems like a weird buffer at the, anyway.

• 3:07Speaker 04

  Yes, I can see how that would be the case, looking at it. And I think it really stems from when the U.S. assassinated Qasem Soleimani, right? In Baghdad, the Ayatollah said that they would never sit down with Americans again. So that's probably a factor in this.

• 3:28Speaker 03

  Got it.

• 3:28Speaker 04

  I would say, although it makes sense, I guess, in the beginning stages of this negotiation to have the Omanis going back and forth. And this is in the Oman Embassy in Rome. And Oman has traditionally played this mediator role between the United States and Iran. But if they really want to get into the weeds of this, this is a very complicated, very technical type of negotiation. They're going to have to not only be face to face, but they're going to have to bring in experts as well. They can't just, I don't think, have some guy running back and forth talking about, you know, how many centrifuges they're going to allow or, you know, what's, what's the device that's going to be on the Iraq? With the A R A K.

• 4:15Speaker 04

  Heavy water treatment plant. I mean, there's all sorts of, and I think it's important, Dee, to go back to the 2015 so people understand what that was. And then we can see how this is shaping up to either be a 2.0 version. Yes. Be an improvement or essentially going back into the same agreement. But so that was a P5 plus one. So US, UK, France, Russia, China, Germany. Um, in the agreement, basically it capped uranium enrichment at 3.6 something, 6.7, I think.

• 4:54Speaker 04

  Um, so far less than it was now. Right now, we're at 60. I mean, the Iranians are at 60 and that's easy, easier to get to, obviously 90. Uh, apparently exponentially easier to get to 90, which is weapons grade. Uh, the 2015 agreement capped how many centrifuges they could have, where they could have those centrifuges, which were that non-tons. So then when it came to the IAEA inspecting, they knew where to go. Um, they had to send out the spent fuel from, you know, civilian energy to, I think it was Russia. Uh, so they didn't have it around. Um, the water treatment plant, or not treatment, but the heavy water plant at Iraq.

• 5:35Speaker 04

  Um, had this device on it, so they couldn't make plutonium, which is another material you can use to make a nuclear bomb. It had a lot of it. So it's very technical, very specific. Uh, there's other, there was other, oh, snapback sanctions, for example. So if Iran violated the 2015, that sanctions would be automatic, that Russia and China couldn't veto. Uh, there was a specific part of the 2015. Um, so that is kind of the, the framework, if you will. We elected to get out of it 2018. Uh, now we're looking to get back into some version of it. Hopefully it is improved.

• 6:17Speaker 04

  But the, the criticism back in 2018 was it didn't address proxy forces, which Iran apparently is not even talking about now. So it looks like it won't again.

• 6:28Speaker 04

  And I think to a certain extent, people were concerned that it wasn't transparent enough. So I hope we get a better agreement, but quite frankly, even if we end up back in the similar agreement, it won't be bad for the US national security interest in the region. Because it'll it'll prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. So I I hope that's the case. I think it's headed that way, although Iran has put, at least in reports, put out specifics like they won't dismantle their nuclear, anything they've done so far, which is unacceptable. It's way above where it was in 2015.

• 7:11Speaker 04

  So hopefully, the US doesn't accept that. They have to dismantle it back. Everything should go at least back down to 2015. Because if they leave everything in place, then it's then they're just one quick step from being able to leave a nuclear weapon. And I think the US in this in this area of foreign policy is on the right track. We're using the threat of legitimate military options as a pushing point for them, and we're it looks like we're headed toward an agreement that would be beneficial. But last point, I'll turn it over to Jason.

• 7:50Speaker 04

  To your point, Israel's not going to like it. They just didn't like the 2015. They pushed hard to get out of 2018. I get it. I'm I I am very concerned about Israel's security and pro Israeli.

• 8:05Speaker 04

  But ultimately, the concern is

• 8:09Speaker 04

  if we do the military option, it will be a continuous thing. So we'll be essentially at war militarily, and Iran has options to retaliate, which will not be good to include shutting down the Straits of Hormuz, attacking partners in the area, going, you know, gray zone, killing diplomats. I mean, there's issues that we have to at least acknowledge. And again, I'm not against the military option. I think it's a viable option. But it's not just to pull the trigger and this thing's over. It could trigger a much broader conflict. And that's something we have to take into account, including Israel.

• 8:46Speaker 05

  Yeah, I agree. I mean, there's not much for me to add to it. The only thing I would add, and you touched on it, is I'm not one of those bomb them back into the Stone Age, so there's nothing left. And I'm also not one of those, let them have whatever they want. We have a nuclear, you know, we have nuclear weapons, one of those people. I don't believe that they should have it, and I hope they don't get it. But I also don't believe that we should completely dismantle their program. If, when I say program, what I'm saying is their civilian program to be able to generate energy, because their people are suffering. And even, I believe, if I heard it correctly.

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  Hi, I'm Jenna Ashkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

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• 11:18Speaker 05

  President Trump during a ceremony for Dr. Oz. I don't even know what the hell he was doing for him. But I feel weird even saying Dr. Oz. But for him, said, he mentioned Iran, and he said, "I want them to thrive. I want them to do well." So I'm hoping that that includes leaving the apparatus in place for them to be able to safely produce electricity for their people. But take away dismantle the ability for them and the mechanism for them to have weapons-grade material. So, yeah, we'll see. And as far as Israel's concerned, I wholeheartedly agree. I think I would assume that they're going to give us a, hey,

• 12:03Speaker 05

  your guys are pushing it and we're going to do this on our own. But I don't put it past them just doing it. And like you said, I think if that happens, it's going to be a continuous thing. Because one strike, especially without verification that it, you know, took out the intended targets, is not going to be enough. So, and there's also, like you said, we could actually BDA that we took out the, you know, the intended targets. But like you said, they have other tools in the toolbox. You know, they could go gray zone, they can do other things. So, you know, hopefully it won't get to that point.

• 12:37Speaker 04

  Good point. The other issue is if Israel does take a strike, then the negotiations will probably be kaput. Because the way the Iranians will view it is the US and Israel are essentially one. So they'll view it as the US trying to get this agreement at the same time, given that we cannot strike. I think you're right, they might do it without our approval. That'd be a big step for them.

• 13:06Speaker 04

  Ultimately, I think the goal should be preventing Israel from, I mean, excuse me, Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And if they do comply with the, with, and I think Secretary Rubio and Mike Walzer are right on this. They have to be like hardline, especially going into the negotiations, like, and then that gives them some wiggle room to come back closer to the middle. And hopefully it's, hopefully it's a better agreement than 2015, but quite frankly, if it's the same, we'd still be in a better place. And to your point, Jay, they, the Iranian people will benefit, right? So the sanctions will come off and they are very innovative, very educated society. I think they'll do really well in the global economy.

• 13:52Speaker 04

  The only thing that's hindering them is, is the regime because of the sanctions. And their, you know, seemingly endless desire to destabilize a region of, a region of which they could prosper in if they would just, you know, stop that. And it'll, and let the Iranian people compete on a fair playing field. I think they'll do very well.

• 14:14Speaker 03

  Yeah, um, I think it's good that like, yeah, we're willing, like, we're saying we're willing to hit Iran.

• 14:23Speaker 03

  For now, I mean, you gotta do that to bring them to the negotiation table, right? The wild card, like you mentioned, is Israel.

• 14:31Speaker 03

  Also, there's nobody else involved in these negotiations, right? Like the last one was a multilateral kind of deal. This one's pretty, pretty bilateral and like our proxy, for lack of a better term, Israel, which is not our proxy, but you know what I'm saying?

• 14:48Speaker 03

  Can literally destroy it with one, with one go of it, right? And if Israel did do that unilaterally, they're probably not destroying it. I mean, we couldn't, the word is we're not going to be able to destroy it ourselves. They'll be able to bring it back in three to six months, right? We've spoken about this.

• 15:04Speaker 03

  So I don't know where it goes besides making a deal of some kind.

• 15:11Speaker 03

  It's funny though, cause like we, you know, the whole Trump agenda early on was how the first agreement was BS and we're getting out of it. And like, we're back here in the same place where it's probably going to look, if we're lucky, probably going to look like the same exact agreement or like very similar.

• 15:32Speaker 03

  Wild um same place same region Houthis we're bombing the Houthis for like what seems like an eternity it's been over thirty days um they're still obviously capable they shot down another MQ nine drone fifth since March fifteenth and twentieth since October twenty twenty-three

• 15:50Speaker 03

  which is a kind of a wild that's how odd that's seems like a lot uh

• 15:56Speaker 03

  they obviously seem to still be capable um after thirty plus days of us continuously bombing them what needs to happen is this just gonna be an ongoing thing like I I don't I I what happens now Mick

• 16:11Speaker 04

  Yeah so yeah this I I agreed with the need to escalate uh I'll start there um I also think it's fair to say that you gotta be realistic about what you can actually do from the air right here's a major component in any conflict uh has been for many many decades uh but it's it's one of those continuously debated although I don't know why uh that it can't essentially win a war without any kind of ground component so again I think you know hats off to all the servicemen and women that are out there carrying this out it was the right move to escalate but it is not having

• 16:52Speaker 04

  the desired effect uh at least completely the desired effect which is removing the Houthis capacity to attack um commercial vessels and military our military assets and our partner countries if they chose to do so uh they'll never stop the desire but the only thing we can do is keep them from getting the weapons basically just dismantling them uh like the Israelis did to Hezbollah uh but they also used a ground component right so they send in Israeli troops so then the question becomes what's gonna be the ground component And I don't think anybody has a desire politically to send, you know, you know, the Marines or conventional army forces in on the ground to be that ground component.

• 17:36Speaker 04

  Because we're gonna fight people who are heavily entrenched in their territory in the mountains. And we all know where that's gonna go, even though we're, we, we are the most effective military in the world. We will lose a lot of soldiers of Marines. So I don't think that's even in the cards, thank goodness. But there is a sizable Yemeni capability that we've worked with before. There is a legitimate government of Yemen that is not, of course, the Houthis, on Zara Alaa. It is, it is a recognized by the UN, the US, they're headquartered out of Ayton. There has been a plan for their forces to take Houda, going all the way back to 2015.

• 18:19Speaker 04

  We're the ones that kind of pushed them not to do it. We were concerned about kind of the humanitarian issue, rightfully concerned. But essentially, if, if the coalition forces took Houda, they would cut off Sanaa. Right? And that's where the Houthis are. So there could be a combination where we have, you know, soft forces from both the military and, and the agency, working with this partner force in conjunction with, of course, intel and air. And it would be, it would make them very effective. And I think they could actually take the port. And that would change the tide. It would cut off the Houthis.

• 19:00Speaker 04

  And on the humanitarian front, the World Food Program just cut off aid going to the Houthi-controlled areas because all the aid is being taken by the Houthis for their fighters. So it's not even going to the people. So that kind of took away that, that one component of the Houda operation. So I don't know exactly what they're looking at, but that's what's in the media. And I think it's very doable and it would, it would have a big impact on the Houthis.

• 19:26Jack Murphy?

  Talk to you for a moment about how you can support the show if you've been watching it, enjoying it, but you'd like to get a little bit more involved and help us continue to do this. You can check out our Patreon. It is patreon.com/the team house. And for $5 a month, you can get access to all of these episodes of the team house ad free. The same goes with our affiliated podcast Eyes On with Andy Milburn, Jason Lyons, Mick Mulroy. That one, you will also get all of those episodes ad free. And you support the channel and the show and we really appreciate it. The Patreon members are literally what has helped this company, this small business survive, especially during our early years.

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• 21:01Speaker 05

  Yeah, agreed. I, from the, I was thinking about as you were talking about air, can't do it all. From the time that I was a baby grunt at School of Infantry down in Lejeune, you know, we were always taught, A, it's about you guys. Everything else is supporting arms. You know, you support the warfighter. So you can bomb all you want. And I think we proved that in Gulf War I, that, you know, you can have a 100-day air campaign all you want, you know, your little, the highway of death, all that stuff. But until you put boots on the ground to hold that, it's kind of a moot point. So I agree. But I also, I also think too, on the far end of that, if you cut off the supply from Iran, which I

• 21:46Speaker 05

  don't think is coming anytime soon.

• 21:49Speaker 05

  When that well dries up, that might have an effect, you know, a positive effect as well. So I know it's not, probably not in the cards for the negotiations, but at some point, I think that should be addressed.

• 22:02Speaker 04

  Good point. Hopefully it's some kind of sidebar to this. You know, Iran won't put anything like that into an agreement because they view them as their allies. All right. They'll, they'll say, well, why don't you cut off support to Israel then? Uh, but I agree with you, Jason. It could be a side thing. It's like, we're going to have this agreement, but we're also going to see weapons flow stop from Iran to the Houthis in Yemen. And in our intel, we'll know that, or you don't even have to have intel. If there's a Iranian weapon that's getting shot at, you know, the USS Carl Vinson, there you go. So I, I hopefully they do include that as kind of sub rosa or, you know, maybe an untalked about portion of that.

• 22:47Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 22:49Speaker 03

  Yeah. So where's Saudi Arabia in all this? Cause Saudi Arabia for a long time was going at the Houthis and stuff like that. I know they've had a ceasefire and stuff like that. Where do they, do they come in? What intelligence wise? I mean, clearly we're probably going to be flying stuff out of there, but.

• 23:06Speaker 04

  So they have excellent intelligence and you're right. When I was referring to the, the 2015 discussion on who data, it was a Saudi led coalition that was the air component of the effort against the Houthis. Right. So we just replaced them, but it was Saudi Arabia. UAE was on the ground. They have really effective special operation forces and they're probably the ones that would be fully embedded with, perhaps, I don't know, but certainly was at the time, uh, the Yemen forces that would take Kudeta. Uh, so I think, I think they, they will be involved. Certainly on the intel side and and they have a lot of, you know, capacity there, especially UAE. So I think it would be a combined effort against the Houthis,

• 23:51Speaker 04

  but it's much needed and it's it's past time. They have, I mean, think about it. Every shot that they take at a commercial vessel is the International Terrorist Act, Terrorism Act, right? These are civilian unarmed commercial vessels that have nothing to do with nothing when it comes to, you know, the war in Gaza, which of course the Houthis were doing this before the war in Gaza even started. So they're just using it as a as a rallying cry now. But it was done for it's time for them not to be able to take the world hostage in essentially target commercial vessels and international waterways. And everybody should be for this shouldn't just be a US thing. This should be like,

• 24:33Speaker 04

  where's China? This 40% of the energy goes to of the world comes out of this area and most a lot of it goes to China. We don't even need it. Yeah. So, yeah, we should get a lot more support. If not military support, it should be political support to do what we're doing.

• 24:51Speaker 03

  I mean, is there any talks like from us talking to China about like, hey, you guys want to help here? Or is like, that doesn't work? We can't talk to China because they're the enemy when it comes down.

• 25:02Speaker 04

  Talk to them. But right now, you know, we're in a trade war with them.

• 25:08Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Ashkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 25:23Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant. So I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 25:34Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 25:39Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 25:45Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At The Table, the food allergy podcast on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At The Table and start listening on the free iHeart radio app today.

• 26:05Speaker 02

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• 26:35Speaker 04

  And I know we're going to get to the topic, but now there's Chinese soldiers showing up on the battlefield in Ukraine. So, I mean, we think we can split this group, but we have not proven that to be the case. And every step that we see, they come closer together, whether it's, you know, what I'm talking about, of course, is China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. They are becoming more intertwined and their relationships seem to be more and obviously are more important to them than any kind of détente with the West, especially when the West is separated like we are now, you know, talking about.

• 27:13Speaker 03

  Sure.

• 27:14Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 27:16Speaker 03

  Oh, God. Why don't I never feel better about these conversations, guys? Jesus. So moving to Ukraine, just happened just now as well. Putin put out a thing where there's going to be an Easter truce, I think for, I don't know what it was, 36 hours from the 19th, that's something to the 21st. And then Zelensky came out, maybe 40 or so minutes later, saying that

• 27:44Speaker 03

  Russians are still targeting areas in Kursk and the Belogrod region. So who knows what's gonna happen with this truce. There have been a number of like some offenses that the Russians have been taking the last few days that have failed. Maybe that's the move like to replenish their their lines or whatever. Also, in terms of like talking ceasefire and some kind of like stop arm like stop to the fighting. The US came out a couple of days ago saying that they were possibly okay with acknowledging Crimea as part of Russia. And

• 28:25Speaker 03

  help me, help me figure this out. When you negotiate in public by just giving the other side more and more shit. Doesn't that make, I mean, I'm not a business guy. I mean, I've owned businesses, but doesn't that make your position of negotiation weaker?

• 28:44Speaker 04

  Yes, especially, yes, absolutely. Especially with one of the parties not being an honest broker when it comes to negotiations at all. I think it's clear that Russia is not interested in a ceasefire. Last month, March, in Saudi Arabia, the US offered a ceasefire 30 days. Ukraine accepted. Russia did not.

• 29:09Speaker 04

  Russia continued to not only to attack Ukraine, but attack civilian infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine. They are not accepting this because they do not see what's in it for them because the US hasn't put more pressure on Russia to get to that point. We could have secondary sanctions, which means sanctions against China and India for buying Russian oil. That's how they feed their war machine. We could increase our support for Ukraine so that Russia sees no realistic end state coming to fruition because the support to Ukraine keeps growing, not subsiding. If we don't do that, Russia is just going to keep nodding, winking, taking the compliments,

• 29:53Speaker 04

  and continuing their war. And if they're successful in Ukraine, the chances of them going into another country, particularly a European country that is not NATO, goes way up. Because, you know, one of the old Russian adages is, going back to the Soviet times, when you proceed with bayonets, if you strike steel, withdraw, if you strike mush, as they call it, you proceed. And that's what they're seeing, mush. So if you, if we're not going to increase our capacity to arm and supply Ukraine, and apparently we rejected them purchasing Patriots. Patriots are a defensive weapon. Yeah. Like, think about that. Yeah. That is only used to defend yourself against missiles that are flying at your

• 30:38Speaker 04

  cities. So it, it might be, and I think, I think the US should stay involved. I think, obviously, I think we should increase our support. But if the US isn't going to do anything to push Russia into a position where they want to negotiate and support Ukraine and punish Russia, the aggressors, then perhaps we don't need to be involved in the ceasefire negotiations because we're not even a neutral party in this. And maybe Europe needs to step up, which is probably going to happen if, if this keeps going like this. And, and I mean, Secretary Rubio, I think, should be leading the effort, not a special envoy. But if he's saying that they're going to withdraw, I think the people in Ukraine and

• 31:22Speaker 04

  Europe are like, fine. I mean, you're, you're doing nothing to actually hold Russia accountable. They, they claimed they took the ceasefire, did it, and then the next day, before the special envoy even left Russia, they were attacking. So they're making a mockery out of us. So as much as I think the US is on the right track on the Iranian thing, I don't understand how we think this is an effective way to negotiate with Russia and try to get to a ceasefire in Ukraine. We have to, we have to actually show Russia consequences to their continuation of their unlawful, unpropoked attack on Ukraine.

• 32:01Speaker 05

  Yeah, I think I think Europe's gonna step up. Like you said, I really think they they don't have a choice at this point. And I think Ukraine is gonna not necessarily turn its back on us for support, but it's going to blade away from us and be like, you're, you know, what can you guys do for us? Because as it stands right now, even if we we stepped out right now, there's breaking news and we said, we're done with the negotiation. We have left Russia in a position of power just by our words, you know, just even even saying we could, we would consider, you know, recognizing this territory as Russia's, that's enough, you know, in that,

• 32:41Speaker 05

  in that aspect, all that is just sticks and stones, all that doesn't account because words do count in this,

• 32:50Speaker 05

  in this, in this instance. And yeah, I think Europe is gonna step up and I just think we're we're digging ourselves into a really bad hole with this, the things that we're saying and doing as far as Ukraine is concerned. I think as far as Iran is concerned, we're moving in the right direction, basically. But with Ukraine, we're digging ourselves in a bad hole worldwide, so.

• 33:17Speaker 04

  Yes, absolutely. And to recognize Crimea as Russian territory essentially just promotes the idea that if you're strong, you can take territory, period. I mean, it's, and of course, nobody else will, except for Russia. And then, and then, of course, in the United States, there's always a shift in, you know, who's the president, who's not, and they'll go back to not recognize it. So it's, it's, it not only show a bizarre deference to Russia, one of our most significant adversaries, it's not gonna last as long, it's not gonna last, it's gonna just, and and Ukraine's gonna keep fighting and Russia's not gonna be successful in taking over Ukraine. And to Jason's point, the Europeans are definitely gonna step up, they are stepping up.

• 34:01Speaker 04

  They realize, like, they have to, they have to spend a lot to ensure that Russia loses to Ukraine, and I think they're willing to do it. And they have the economies to do it.

• 34:11Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 34:12Speaker 03

  The interesting thing is like we're. We've like bled Russia big time over the last three.

• 34:20Speaker 04

  Eight hundred thousand casualties, eight hundred thousand casualties, probably around three hundred thousand dead.

• 34:25Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah, that's like incredible cuz like I imagine imagine a war the US was involved in and we had that kind of casualty count.

• 34:33Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 34:33Speaker 03

  There would be riots in the street.

• 34:35Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah.

• 34:36Speaker 03

  We'd be like, this is it.

• 34:37Speaker 04

  Thousand Vietnam, all of Vietnam, fifty eight thousand death.

• 34:39Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 34:41Speaker 04

  Yeah. Uh, over three hundred thousand, so.

• 34:44Speaker 03

  And just the blatant disregard of Putin and his regime for like Russian hu- people is kind of unfucking believable. It's like biblical, it's World War Two number stuff.

• 34:58Speaker 04

  Annihilation of a whole generation of young Russians.

• 35:01Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 35:02Speaker 05

  I think I read something that was like one percent, it's one percent of their male population or something like that has been wiped out.

• 35:08Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 35:09Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 35:10Speaker 04

  And a lot, and a lot more have fled Russian number.

• 35:13Speaker 03

  Yeah, who's gonna get, who's gonna clip Putin, bro? Let's, let's make a, let's do it, let's, let's devise it right now. There's gotta be something in the works like Ukrainian or some kind of like S uh, SBU or whatever, trying to figure it out. Or the polls, I'm sure they're, they're involved heavily.

• 35:31Speaker 03

  The scary thing is, I know it's like more speculating, like if that were to happen, like who takes over after Putin? And is it more of a lunatic? Which is hard to believe, right? Um, or somebody who would be looking to, looking for the off ramp here.

• 35:49Speaker 03

  And I don't know, it, it's just unbelievable.

• 35:51Speaker 04

  It's a transition for just from the normal, you know, life cycle of a leader. Uh, and Putin gets to pick him, then it's, I imagine it's gonna be somebody aligned with him or potentially even more fervent. Uh, if it's a, if it's an organic overthrow of the government, who knows, right?

• 36:09Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 36:11Speaker 03

  Total crap.

• 36:12Speaker 04

  I mean, he, he stayed in power this long, uh, he's a former KGB Colonel. He knows security, he, I mean, he knows how to keep his regime in place. So it's, uh, yeah, we can't count on, on a change in leadership.

• 36:25Speaker 03

  Sure. And I'm sure like, uh, probably scared the shit out of him, went down with, uh, uh, Prigozhin. Right? Um, I'm sure like after that, he probably clamped, clanked down. Times ten.

• 36:42Speaker 03

  Yeah, there seems to be a real schism in the Trump administration of, you know, the Witkoffs and the Rubio's, the Rubio's catalogs and the Witkoffs and everybody else, basically. I honestly don't know how Rubio's doing this, how he wants to do it.

• 37:04Speaker 04

  I mean, I would say that there's a traditional Republican view, which of course is Russia is our adversary. The US should lead the free world, you know, kind of the Reagan view. And I think Rubio kind of represents that in the current administration and so does Mike Walz to a certain extent. So I hope they stick around because it's important, you know, from the person who kind of views the world that way, that that is represented. The idea that you can go kowtow as some have to President Putin and somehow that's going to work out well for you is just lost on me. It just ignores essentially all of human history. So especially when dealing with an autocrat, right? They never

• 37:49Speaker 04

  go, wow, this guy's really nice, so I won't take advantage of him. They go, wow, this guy's really nice. I am definitely going to take it. Right? All right. It's, I'm sure the Russians are baffled. There's even reporting that they're like, they're confused, you know?

• 38:08Speaker 03

  Yeah, like, is this a move? Like, what's going on? It's just too easy.

• 38:15Speaker 03

  I mean, listen, you, you hear Steve Witkoff speak and he's the, he's the point guy, right? For this, at this point, at this point in time, and it literally, like, you listen to it and you're like, what is going on? Like, this isn't a real estate deal. This isn't a deal where like, everyone could kiss each other's ass because everyone's going to get rich. This is like real life, people living and dying, civilians dying, like, and both Ukrainians and Russians fucking dying too, like.

• 38:48Speaker 03

  And just like the flip it kinda like, yeah, we're all buds here is head scratching.

• 38:56Speaker 04

  It's head scratching for a lot of reasons, but I can, I can tell you, and anybody's ever done with Russia knows, they don't view us as a friend. They never will. They never will. You could say all that stuff and they'll be like, yeah, yeah, yeah. And soon you just left the room. They're like, F that guy.

• 39:10Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 39:11Speaker 04

  They don't, I mean, they, they, they like, part of their existence is to be counter to whatever the US is. Just, it's just how they, it's how a lot of autocracies, autocracies work, right? They, they build up nationalist sentiment by having an enemy.

• 39:25Speaker 03

  Right.

• 39:25Speaker 04

  Well, we're the enemy.

• 39:28Speaker 04

  They're not, it's not gonna change.

• 39:29Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 39:30Speaker 04

  They'll, they'll say things and appease things and, you know, not appease, but uh, be conciliatory, but they don't mean it and they never will. And, you know, we've had other presidents that, you know, have thought this and proven wrong. And they even acknowledge it, you know, President Bush with the looked into the eyes.

• 39:45Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 39:46Speaker 04

  You know, and it's just not the case. It's time to be realistic. Doesn't mean we can't deal with them. We should deal with everybody in the world, right? We should do everything we can to mitigate another world war. Uh, because I think people have forgot just how horrendous a world war is. Um, so I, I'm, I'm certainly not saying that we should be, uh, at fisticuffs with Russia at all times. But we also ought to be smart enough to realize that they have no interest in being conciliatory to the United States in actuality.

• 40:16Speaker 03

  And the interesting thing is too, they've done some polling on this too, and like almost 60% of the United, of American people are like, yeah, we should continue to, continue to support Ukraine.

• 40:25Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At The Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 40:40Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic. In a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 40:51Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you, you're not alone.

• 40:56Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 41:02Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At The Table, the food allergy podcast on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At The Table and start listening on the free iHeart radio app today.

• 41:22Speaker 02

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 41:52Speaker 04

  Yes.

• 41:53Speaker 03

  So like the polling's there, obviously it's number 12 on the list or whatever of people, things to care about. But at the same time, there is sentiment in the United States where people are like, yeah, we should continue to help them out.

• 42:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, absolutely. It is in our own interest. It's in our own national security interest. It's not charity. And it's important that we stay as a main, main leader in the world. This is it. If we pull out of it, that people will view it for what it is. The US is withdrawn for being the leader of the free world.

• 42:23Speaker 03

  And who takes over?

• 42:25Speaker 04

  Who takes over? Probably be some European, or probably Europe in general.

• 42:30Speaker 03

  You talk in terms of like, in general, generalities, the leader of the free world, or like, the guy, the person who takes over the country that takes over, like, fills the vacuum there. I think it's China. Obviously not having to, I think China, even though there have been reports of Chinese fighters on the ground in Ukraine, and there has been a report too of some Chinese officials going over to Ukraine to like, observe what's going on, or Russia to observe what's going on.

• 42:57Speaker 04

  Well, China will try to take over as the world's superpower.

• 43:00Speaker 03

  Right, correct.

• 43:01Speaker 04

  The world, because they're not even a part of it. But the, the US is the one who set up the current system worldwide after World War II, with us essentially at the helm, which is a good place to be. Security wise, economic wise, and everything. We don't want that. Even just looking at, if you want to use the term, America first. America first would be to maintain our leadership of the free world. It's in our own interest. Uh, financially, uh, security, everything. So.

• 43:35Speaker 04

  We don't want to be replaced.

• 43:37Speaker 03

  No.

• 43:38Speaker 04

  But we have to actually do more than just talk. We have to actually act. And we have, uh, but we just need to continue to do so. My humble opinion.

• 43:48Speaker 03

  Yeah, we'll see what goes down. Um, another bit of news coming out from, uh, Nikki shared this with us yesterday. Do you want to give a, a rundown of what went down? It looks like the program to help the folks that helped us in Afghanistan is getting, uh, its funding revoked. And Mick, if you want to give us some more specifics on that.

• 44:10Speaker 04

  So, of course, going back to the horrendous withdrawal of Afghanistan, obviously a lot of people, but certainly veterans, became involved in the evacuation of our partner who fought alongside us for 20 years. It was, uh, quite frankly, an embarrassment, the way we left it. But a lot of things were put into place to help those that were left behind, since it was such a precipitous withdrawal. Even people with SIVs, uh, which is special immigrant visas, uh, to come to the United States weren't, didn't come because they didn't get a halfway out. They've been trying to ever since. So it looks like the coordinator for the Afghan relocation efforts, which is CARE,

• 44:54Speaker 04

  the acronym for the Office, is going to be. Closed down this month, which would leave people essentially stranded, people who fought alongside us, who met the qualifications for SIV or were very close. Of course, the Taliban doesn't care if you met it or were very close, they're still gonna kill you. And they have no place else to go. And I would point out that this is one of the most heavily screened populations of any person coming to the United States. They went through extensive background and of course, many of them, if not most of them, supported directly US military in the fight against the Taliban.

• 45:36Speaker 04

  So it would be a horrendous change, in my opinion, and it would be essentially abandoning our promise to these folks. There's a lot of other veterans, and I was involved in a group called the Tif Dunkirk, and a lot of other veteran groups that have stayed and really done a lot to continue this effort. Sean Vandenberg was one, I think it's Afghan evac. Hopefully, we can get him on the show and you guys can interview him. But that are still very much attracting this can go into much more detail. But essentially, this needs to happen.

• 46:19Speaker 04

  There's a lot of vets, left, right and center, who think this should happen and are gonna be pushing for this and talking to their Congress men and women about making sure we don't abandon these partners.

• 46:32Speaker 03

  Yeah, just a note, this was funded through 2027, or supposedly supposed to be funded through 2027. And it's, check my time, it's not 2027. Congress funded it, which is how the Constitution works, which maybe we should do that. And I think, you know, the blowback in terms of like, what are other allies gonna think if we're trying to use a partner force and stuff like that?

• 47:00Speaker 03

  They're not gonna believe a fucking word we say. I wouldn't, right? If I have some CIA guy coming to me, like, you're gonna fucking abandon me too. The minute like the political will is gone.

• 47:11Speaker 04

  Yeah. And as a guy who spent a lot of my time with partner forces, yeah, it's a big problem.

• 47:16Speaker 03

  I mean, at the same time, I'd be like, I'm gonna take your money and stuff, but you know, I'm not expecting that much from you guys. If I'm completely honest. Yeah.

• 47:24Speaker 04

  Yeah. Pass this prologue, man. That's what I would, I would be asking the same question if I was in their shoes. Yeah. And what, remember the earlier part of this discussion, not that we're gonna promise all these Yemeni fighters, uh, you know, SIVs, but we're talking about using a partner force right now, right?

• 47:40Speaker 03

  Exactly.

• 47:41Speaker 04

  Um, and it's gonna, that's, that's the way of modern warfare, regular warfare. A partner force operations are a key component for a reason. We don't like to, uh, it's a big political decision to put conventional US forces on the ground in arms way again. And after 20 years of fighting Afghanistan.

• 47:57Speaker 03

  In the Middle East.

• 47:58Speaker 04

  It's very unlikely to happen again, or at least it's, it's, it's less likely. So partner forces are gonna be key going ahead. And if we don't keep our, uh, word,

• 48:11Speaker 04

  it's gonna, it's gonna change the, the attitude they have toward us.

• 48:16Speaker 03

  Yeah. And listen, me as being like a regular citizen that doesn't, hasn't done anything, that's just been experiencing the last 20 years and stuff like that. I can kinda get behind, you know, a handful of ODA's, some little piece of the rage regiments and JSOC and CIA, you know, facilitating the Yemeni, uh, army into going after the Houthis and stuff like that. Like that I can buy, but not, you know, 150,000, 100 first airborne guys or Marines and stuff like that. Going like that's, that's it, it is a political no-go in this country.

• 48:49Speaker 04

  Yeah, it should be.

• 48:50Speaker 03

  Yeah, exactly.

• 48:51Speaker 04

  Yeah, I'm, I'm, I agree 100%. And not just because my son's in the 100 first.

• 48:57Speaker 03

  Right.

• 48:59Speaker 04

  Um, I mean, I mean, seriously, and when it comes to committing US force on the ground, it has to be an absolute direct, uh, US national security interest and no other option. That's what I would, that would be my policy. Until then, yes. Partner force operations, special operations intel, for sure.

• 49:18Speaker 03

  Yeah. I mean, that's the name of the game. That's, that's what they, that's what they do best, right? So.

• 49:25Speaker 03

  I'm down with that. You know what I mean? But I don't want it to be another quagmire in Yemen. Uh, where, when it's like, there's no coalition, really, like international coalition, especially what you would think, though. An issue like what's going on in the Red Sea. With navigation and freedom of navigation should be more likely to induce a coalition to get together to do something like this.

• 49:49Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 49:49Speaker 03

  Because everyone's economically involved and affected by this stuff.

• 49:54Speaker 04

  It's a good point because there is a coalition. I don't remember how many countries, but it's, it's um. Operation Prosperity Guardian, I think.

• 50:04Speaker 03

  Mick, you're an expert. You're an expert and you couldn't remember like, cause like, what's this fucking coalition actually doing?

• 50:10Speaker 04

  Yeah, right.

• 50:11Speaker 03

  Sorry, I'm getting, I'm getting, I'm getting red hot.

• 50:13Speaker 04

  And we had that, we had the international maritime security construct when I was at the Pentagon. So it's the same thing, basically. Because there's, especially when it comes to naval power, um, there's political like, hey, we're with you guys, but then there's actually capacity.

• 50:28Speaker 03

  Right.

• 50:28Speaker 04

  And very, very, very few countries actually have naval maritime air capacity. And it's basically the US, the UK and France, right? So this coalition of, I don't know, say 35 countries. Boils down to like three.

• 50:45Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 50:46Speaker 04

  Um, and nobody holds a candle to us. So I hope, especially with their European partners, they start realizing that they have to do more. They have to bring more to the game than just, you know, uh, what they're doing. And I, and I think you're seeing that because. They're concerned about Russia. But that's why these coalitions sound huge, but you can't remember who's in it. Because you never see any of them actually doing anything. They'll send staff folks to our, uh, jock, right? And they'll, that's them participating, but.

• 51:16Speaker 03

  They just stand there with like a clipboard?

• 51:20Speaker 04

  Yeah, that's what everybody does.

• 51:23Speaker 04

  But yeah, and I'm not diminishing it. We need politically, we need other countries, so it's not the US. But when it comes to naval capabilities, there's not a whole lot of countries out there that could even participate at this level.

• 51:38Speaker 03

  Yeah, alright, um, is there anywhere somebody could go to help out with like maybe putting the screws to the administration about, uh, not pulling this funding from, uh?

• 51:51Speaker 04

  Congress, you already said it.

• 51:53Speaker 03

  Call your congressman.

• 51:54Speaker 04

  Yep, and there's plenty of veteran congressmen on both sides of the aisle who are and have been very big staunch advocates of this program. So I think this is, this is, that is where people should go and have them explain why we're abandoning our partners. Uh, after not only promising them then, but promising them after we withdrew and left them. If not, there's gonna be, there could be, a lot of them are in other countries. I, I think I read 90 different countries or, and they're on their way here. Again, they are completely vetted, and if they're not vetted, they shouldn't come. But if they are vetted and we're,

• 52:35Speaker 04

  you know, we're confident they are who they said they were, they fought alongside of us and they're not a threat. Those are the kind of people we want to be Americans.

• 52:41Speaker 03

  Right. You would think, yeah, I mean.

• 52:45Speaker 04

  They already fought for America.

• 52:46Speaker 03

  Right, yeah, they've done more than most, most people that were citizens of America, so myself included, so it's like.

• 52:53Speaker 04

  And I know a lot of them, not that, I mean, anecdotally, they come and, man, they're like a lot of immigrants to the United States. They come, they're driving an Uber, the first generation and second generation, they're, you know, they own it.

• 53:05Speaker 05

  Own a business or, yeah.

• 53:08Speaker 04

  Going to fancy pants schools, I mean, they, they are here to, they're not here to mooch, nope.

• 53:13Speaker 03

  Right.

• 53:13Speaker 04

  They, they, they do, they do really well. They have a very tight knit community, uh, work tied into them just because people I knew in Afghanistan and they, and they look out for each other and they do really well. They're very productive members of the society in general. I think everybody knows that.

• 53:32Speaker 03

  Yeah, very well said. Um, anything else, guys?

• 53:37Speaker 04

  Oh, we covered a lot.

• 53:38Speaker 03

  Yeah. Um, do us a favor. Go and check out the links down in the description. Um, if you want to find Mick on LinkedIn or Fogbo, Lobo, uh, any of his publications, the links are in the description. Jason Lyons, his links are in the description. Andy Milburn, great book, When the Tempest Gather, sorry, I couldn't make it today. He's in the gym. Um, link is in the description as well. And if you want to help support the show and get the Team House ad free and early access, Eyes on Geopolitics, ad free and early access. Go to our Patreon, patreon.com slash the Team House. Buy some merch. You saw Mick drinking that other Eyes on mug. It looks incredible. Um, and yeah, guys, happy Easter. Whoever celebrates.

• 54:20Speaker 05

  Everybody.

• 54:21Speaker 04

  Happy Easter. Best place to celebrate? Greece.

• 54:26Speaker 03

  Goddamn right.

• 54:27Speaker 04

  Throwing it out to you, man. If you ever get a chance to be there and on Easter, that's the place to be.

• 54:33Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 54:33Speaker 04

  Yeah. You'll know what I'm saying. Once you go there and celebrate.

• 54:38Speaker 03

  Uh, Ja- Jason sent me an Instagram story yesterday, stereotyping us Greeks. And you know what? It was what goes on during Easter and stuff like that. It was pinpoint perfect. That's literally what's going to be happening tomorrow at my aunt's house.

• 54:54Speaker 04

  Awesome.

• 54:55Speaker 03

  Thanks, guys.

• 54:56Speaker 05

  Yeah, thank you.

• 54:58Speaker 04

  Great rest of your weekend.

• 54:59Speaker 05

  All right, Gents, you too. Happy Easter.

• 55:04Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 55:19Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 55:30Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 55:35Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 55:41Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 56:01Speaker 12

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• 56:45Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 57:00Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 57:11Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 57:16Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 57:22Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 57:41Speaker 02

  Cash flow crunch? OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 58:25Speaker 06

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 58:40Speaker 07

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 58:51Speaker 06

  And while there are challenges, there are moments that remind you you're not alone.

• 58:56Speaker 08

  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

• 59:02Speaker 06

  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

• 59:22Speaker 02

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans, up to $400,000, help make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 59:52Speaker 00

  She's been thinking about this sleepover all week, but I think about her food allergies all the time. Fortunately, her doctor prescribed Zolair, omalizumab. It's proven to significantly reduce allergic reactions if a food allergy accident happens.

• 1:00:05Speaker 01

  Zolair 150mg is a prescription medication used to treat food allergy in people one year of age and older to reduce allergic reactions due to accidental exposure to one or more foods. While taking Zolair, you should continue to avoid all foods to which you are allergic. Don't use if you are allergic to Zolair. Zolair may cause a severe, life-threatening allergic reaction called anaphylaxis. Tell your doctor if you ever had anaphylaxis. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or if you have swelling of your throat or tongue. Zolair should not be used for the emergency treatment of allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. Zolair is for maintenance use to reduce allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, while avoiding food allergens. Serious side effects such as cancer, fever, muscle aches and rash, parasitic infection, or heart and circulation problems have been reported. Please see zolair.com for full prescribing information. Ask an allergist about Zolair. This is an advertisement for Zolair,

• 1:00:49Speaker 01

  paid for by Genentech and Novartis.

• 1:00:52Speaker 09

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of 5-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.