472. Is Trump’s Peace 'Plan’ Forced Surrender for Ukraine?

Who is really behind the White House 'peace plan' for Ukraine: Trump or Putin? Why isn't Europe taking the threat from Russia more seriously, and doing more to protect Ukraine? How does all of this relate to Russia’s hybrid warfare and the ex-leader of Reform UK in Wales taking pro-Russia bribes? Join Rory and Alastair as they answer all these questions and more. __________ Get more from The Rest Is Politics with TRIP+. Enjoy bonus episodes, ad-free listening, early access, live show ticket priority, our members’ newsletter, and private Discord community – plus exclusive series on JD Vance, Rupert Murdoch, and more. Start your 7-day free trial today at therestispolitics.com The Rest Is Politics is powered by Fuse Energy. The Rest Is Politics is powered by Fuse Energy. Fuse are giving away free TRIP Plus membership for all of 2025 to new sign ups 🎉 TRIP Plus gets you ad-free listening, discounts, and early access to episodes and pre-sale tickets for live shows! To sign up and for terms and conditions, visit ⁠fuseenergy.com/politics⁠ ⚡ Get our exclusive NordVPN deal here ➼ nordvpn.com/restispolitics It's risk-free with Nord's 30 day money back guarantee ✅ To save your company time and money, open a Revolut Business account today via get.revolut.com/z4lF/therestispolitics, and add money to your account by 31st of December 2025 to get a £200 welcome bonus or equivalent in your local currency. __________ For more Goalhanger Podcasts, head to goalhanger.com Instagram: @restispolitics Twitter: @restispolitics Email: [email protected] __________ Social Producer: Emma Jackson, Harry Balden Assistant Producer: Daisy Alston-Horne Producer: Evan Green, India Dunkley Senior Producer: Callum Hill Exec Producer: Tom Whiter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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• 3:17Alastair Campbell?

  Welcome to an emergency episode of The Rest is Politics with me, Alastair Campbell.

• 3:22Rory Stewart?

  And with me, Rory Stewart. And this is us focused on Ukraine. You've been speaking to people who've been at the G20, where most of the leaders, except for Trump, have been. We're talking on a Sunday night when in Geneva at the moment, Marco Rubio, Steve Wicoff and the Ukrainian delegation are meeting. But the reason we're talking, of course, is this plan, which was leaked, which seems to be the working draft, put together by Steve Wicoff, who's Trump's main negotiator, with Kirill, who's doing the negotiating on behalf of the Russians, and which has produced some extraordinary results. Over to you.

• 3:59Alastair Campbell?

  It depends what you mean by extraordinary. Extraordinary reactions. I don't think there's been any result. Yeah, I suppose apart from these meetings that are now going on in Geneva. I mean, this is a little bit of a rerun of the Gaza plan, but I think it's even worse. In that we talked when when Trump came up with his Gaza plan and we should maybe point out that we're talking on a day that Israel has just been has just taken out the chief of staff for Hezbollah in Lebanon where more Palestinians were killed yesterday. So I think it's mythology to say that peace has been delivered there. But this one next to no reference to the Ukrainians, some doubt even as to whether this might actually have been written by the Russians.

• 4:44Alastair Campbell?

  There are American senators who've come out and said that Rubio told them that he had very little input into it. He's now denied that. But I think that, you know, if you if OK with you, Rory, I'd quite like to do what we did with the Gaza plan when it first came out, which is essentially to go through the whole thing because, I mean, it's 28 points, we don't need to do them all. But I just think it as we go through and see what Ukraine is being asked to take, I hope that most decent, reasonable people will think this is this is this is more than Trump just driving a bulldozer. This is basically saying, I'm sick to death of dealing with this. I'm sick to death of being told that I'm the only person who can sort it out. For God's sake, it's going to end and here's the basis on which it ends.

• 5:28Alastair Campbell?

  So shall we shall we just have a quick run through?

• 5:30Rory Stewart?

  Yeah, brilliant. Let's maybe even chat a few of the points as you raise them.

• 5:34Alastair Campbell?

  Absolutely. So the point point one, and you do sort of wonder why this even has to be said, Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed. Who whoever put it in doubt? And then I think you have to go after that, you have to go to point 21 of the 25 point plan, which relates to territories. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States. Now, what the Americans can say is, well, the Russians aren't happy about that because they want de jure, they want to say this is theirs. But it does somewhat conflict with the idea that Ukraine has sovereignty.

• 6:15Rory Stewart?

  Let's just just come and come to that for a second and just just expand on that a little bit because the the big news there is that contained within that is that Ukraine currently occupies bits of Donetsk and Luhansk. These were, of course, all Ukrainian territory before Russians' invasions in 2014 and 2022.

• 6:35Rory Stewart?

  Ukraine has been fighting very, very bravely, but at huge cost to hold those lines. And the Russians have been advancing, as people have pointed out, very, very slowly. Some people calculate it would take them years to conquer that territory. They don't currently conquer the western edge of that territory. They currently don't occupy. So the first thing to note is that this plan is not just freezing the front lines where they are. It's giving Russia more than they currently have. And then there's an ambiguous phrase halfway through about international recognition, which even makes it a little bit unclear whether they're trying to sneak in something more than just de facto Russia controls this. Because there's a toy about full international recognition for a buffer zone as Russian territory.

• 7:20Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah. Donald Trump has said they, they, they may have to give up on land they have not lost. Um. So they're actually being asked to give up more than Russia has already taken. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it console controls outside the five regions. Your point, Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control. This control zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone. Russian forces will not enter. Now, here we are. Just listen to this one, Rory. This is point two. So that's one and twenty one. Point two, a comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last thirty years will be considered settled.

• 8:05Alastair Campbell?

  Now, I, I don't know if I'm the only person, when I hear comprehensive non-aggression agreement, the, the, the names Molotov and Ribbentrop sort of flow somewhat into my head. This is when the Nazi Soviet non-aggression pact was made.

• 8:19Rory Stewart?

  And I think you're making a really good point here because I, I was talking to a, a good friend from the Baltic earlier today, who said that fundamentally, this is what the Soviet Union, the USSR did to Finland. So effectively they invaded Finland and then they created the situation where they took away Finland's sovereignty.

• 8:40Rory Stewart?

  And effectively, that's what's happening here. The idea is that Ukraine wouldn't be fully sovereign. A fully sovereign country is a country which is free to have its own army, invite people in, create international treaties. This is essentially Finlandisation. This is making Ukraine into a state that simply doesn't have the same sovereign rights that Russia would have.

• 9:01Alastair Campbell?

  Okay, number three. It is expected, interesting choice of word, that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further. Now, first of all, it is expected, well, it was expected, not least by the United States intelligence services, that Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine. NATO not expanding further, I assume that is them responding to Russia, your point about Finland, saying they weren't very happy about NATO expansion as a result of the invasion of Ukraine. But here's one that absolutely, and I was speaking to one of the leaders who's at the G20, you said this one really kind of got

• 9:43Alastair Campbell?

  them absolutely, they just, they just couldn't begin to believe what this meant. Number four, a dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO mediated by the United States to resolve all security issues. Now, NATO is the United States and the United States is NATO.

• 10:02Rory Stewart?

  So the thing there that's so amazing, and this is part of something you often talk about, which is the way that Trump eventually, over time, does things so extreme that it begins to change our expectations. One almost has to remind people of why that is so mad. And the reason it's so mad fundamentally is that NATO was created by the United States. The whole idea of this whole thing was NATO was lining up with its liberal democratic allies in Western Europe against Russia and the Soviet Union.

• 10:37Rory Stewart?

  So for for the US to then pose as a sort of neutral mediator, hey, it's nothing to do with us. This is just between you guys is the most extraordinary kind of revelation.

• 10:49Alastair Campbell?

  And that's why in in the what's now becoming a European counterproposal that's being put. One of the things they're saying is that Ukraine should be when we get on to security guarantees, which is point five. So point five is Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees. There's no reference to American forces doing anything on that. Just says reliable security guarantees. So what the European counterproposal is saying is that that should include an article five type relationship for Ukraine. No response from the Americans. Number six, the size of the Ukrainian armed forces, not just the army, the armed forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel. Now, why are the Russians so insistent on lower levels of personnel?

• 11:34Alastair Campbell?

  If it is not that later down the road, they'd like to take on a weaker armed forces.

• 11:40Rory Stewart?

  So this is this isn't a weird element of spin in the sort of micro concessions. And you're completely right. The way to think about this is this is a repeat, basically, in many ways of what Trump did with Gaza. Which is it's an attempt to create peace through giving almost everything to the stronger party. And the stronger party makes these sort of mini concessions. So the Russians would say 600,000 is still a lot of people. It's more than we wanted. We wanted to limit the Ukrainian army to, let's say, 100,000 people. But the fundamental point is this, I mean, you're limiting the sovereign ability of a country that's been invaded to defend itself.

• 12:16Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah. And and the point about the armed forces is that that includes Navy, Air Force. It's the so the army is currently, I think, about 880,000. The European counterproposal, which is being discussed now, they're saying they would accept 800,000. But the point is, if you're a sovereign country, you can decide how much you want to spend on defence, which is exactly what Vladimir Putin has done.

• 12:40Rory Stewart?

  Furthermore, if you are a sovereign country, which has actually been invaded in the last two and a half years, you need to be able to increase your forces and do what you want. Anyway, let's keep running because it gets worse and worse. Keep keep rolling through these points.

• 12:54Alastair Campbell?

  Right. Number seven, Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO. And NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future. So again, Nate, if it's a sovereign country, it has a sovereign choice about which defence partnerships to make.

• 13:11Rory Stewart?

  And if we're serious about security guarantees, and logically, all of Europe is agreeing to security guarantees, and the United States is agreeing to security guarantees. So if every NATO member wants to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine, isn't it basically in NATO anyway? So refusing to allow it to join NATO is essentially Trump signalling that the US security guarantee will not be as firm as a normal Article Five guarantee.

• 13:37Alastair Campbell?

  Correct, and we'll get on to that when we get on to point 10. In fact, point eight, NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine. Well, it hasn't stopped Putin putting Russian troops into Ukraine.

• 13:49Rory Stewart?

  That's another very fundamental one. So if we think about a world in which increasingly the US pulls its support out, and in which the US says to Europe, Russia's your problem, you haven't been spending enough on defence, step up and deal with it. Well, the only way that you could actually provide a security guarantee to Ukraine is by putting troops in. And we talked about what that could be. That could be brigades back, that could be brigades forward, that could be tripwires, that could be training. But how can we possibly talk about providing security guarantees to Ukraine? This American story, Europe needs to step up. If Europe is now banned from putting troops in, what kind of security can it provide?

• 14:28Alastair Campbell?

  Number nine, European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland, well, that's fine. Number 10.

• 14:33Rory Stewart?

  No, wait, but let me hold on that too, because I think that the small print there is twofold. As my Baltic friend was pointing out, does this mean European fighter jets can be stationed in Poland but no further forward? And does it mean only European fighter jets, so you can't have fighter jets from the US in Poland? I mean, why is this thing here? I mean, we have fighter jets in Poland already. So what is this cause unless it's trying to restrict?

• 14:57Alastair Campbell?

  Well, well spotted, it's even worse than I thought. Number 10, the US guarantee. Now, you have to remember, and this is, there was a very, very good editor in the Financial Times yesterday, which said that this is laid bare, the cynical, money-grabbing nature of Trump's approach to everything. The US will receive compensation for the guarantee. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee.

• 15:22Alastair Campbell?

  If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, again, USA not mentioned, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked. And then get this one. If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid. When have we ever heard of Ukraine whacking off a missile at Moscow or St Petersburg?

• 15:52Rory Stewart?

  Well, there have been allegations of drone attacks and things, but I agree with you. And remember also that the only threat that Russia faces there is that if it invades Ukraine, it returns to basically the position it's in at the moment.

• 16:04Alastair Campbell?

  Correct.

• 16:05Rory Stewart?

  It doesn't actually end up any worse off. It's just reimposition of sanctions.

• 16:08Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah. Now, how we make clear that it can't join NATO, number 11 says Ukraine is eligible for EU membership. Okay. But then we really get on to the meat of what Wickoff, and by the way, I noticed in the picture they released of the meeting in Geneva today, who should be there in the background again but Jared Kushner yet again, and we know what his prime interest is. Number 12, a powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to the creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers and artificial intelligence. The United States, not the United Nations, the United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure,

• 16:53Alastair Campbell?

  including pipelines and storage. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas, infrastructure development, extraction of minerals and natural resources, and the World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts. Point 13, Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy, lifting of sanctions, long-term economic infrastructure, invited to rejoin the G8. Now, number 14, just get this.

• 17:21Alastair Campbell?

  We have talked so often on the podcast about these frozen funds.

• 17:25Rory Stewart?

  Frozen funds, which just to remind remind listeners, Europe was hoping that if we got these frozen Russian funds, we would be able to hand them to the Ukrainian government to fill in the holes in their budget, pay for their military, and basically pay reparations from Russia to the damage done.

• 17:40Alastair Campbell?

  Exactly. And essentially, you and I, whilst accepting there are huge legal issues that flow from it, it would be basically saying to Europe, for God's sake, get on and do this. Here is the plan, number fourteen. One hundred billion of the frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive fifty percent of the profits from this venture. Europe will add one hundred billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine. This is like a mafia deal.

• 18:15Rory Stewart?

  Explain the, so the business deal here is that America puts in no money. There's a hundred billion dollars from frozen Russian assets. There's a hundred billion dollars from Europe, and the US gets fifty percent of all profits, having put no money in. Yeah.

• 18:28Alastair Campbell?

  Correct. I mean, you know, you know Chatham House, foreign policy, right? And you know how they're normally very, very sober in their discussions? Their head of the Ukraine, their Ukraine desk has put out a statement saying, this is like the mafia days of old in American business deals. This, this is, and it then says this. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. Right. Number fifteen, a joint American-Russian working group on security issues. American-Russian, not the UN, nothing to do with Europe.

• 19:09Rory Stewart?

  No, no Europe, no NATO, no Ukraine, no, no, no.

• 19:14Alastair Campbell?

  Number sixteen, Russia will enshrine in law, oh, take that seriously, its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine, utterly meaningless. Number seventeen, the US and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, fair enough. Number eighteen, and this to me is the one that if I was a Ukrainian reading this, I would say, and there's, there's a Ukrainian MP, Lisa Yasko, who's saying that.

• 19:43Alastair Campbell?

  If we accept this whole package, it is an act of national suicide. That's what you call it, national suicide. Eighteen, Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with, yes, you guessed it, the Treaty on the Nonperiphrasis of Nuclear Weapons Budapest Memorandum 1994. That's the one where Ukraine agreed to give their nuclear weapons over to Russia in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, US and UK. So why would they sort of not think of that one? Well, hold on a minute. Right, then there's more stuff about nuclear. And then there's this one. Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools

• 20:23Alastair Campbell?

  and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice. This is all about language. This is all about you've got to speak Russian. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.

• 20:38Rory Stewart?

  I notice it's Ukraine adopting this, not Russia. No, Russia's not adopting this.

• 20:42Alastair Campbell?

  Correct, correct. And get this one right, get this one right. All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited. Well, who says whom is a Nazi?

• 20:54Rory Stewart?

  Right. Putin's has consistently said the Ukrainians are Nazis and that what he's doing is facing a special military operation against Nazis.

• 21:01Alastair Campbell?

  That's a way of saying to Russian people, we've got in this agreement that they won't be allowed to be Nazis anymore.

• 21:08Rory Stewart?

  Furthermore, they've admitted they're Nazis. I mean, otherwise, why did they sign this deal unless, say, admit they're Nazis?

• 21:14Alastair Campbell?

  Right, we've then got twenty-one, which we've talked about. We're getting near the end there, folks. Twenty-two, after agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force, which is pretty much what was said in the past. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment. Twenty-three, Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnipro River for commercial activities and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea. Twenty-four, now this is where it gets really, really ugly. A humanitarian committee will be established. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned,

• 21:59Alastair Campbell?

  including children. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims. And here we are, all parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future. So we know war crimes have been committed. Not, they mentions children, children have been taken from their families and taken to Russia. No punishment, blanket amnesty for all war crimes.

• 22:29Rory Stewart?

  Well, I mean, I think that that was really good and I'm, I'm really pleased somebody's actually gone out in detail because it just explains how shattering it is all the way through. I think there are three main overall things that you, you might say. Um, the first is that this is a, a peace deal that destroys Ukraine's sovereignty. That's what we talked about. It limits how an independent nation can have its army, its weapons, what organizations it can join, what alliances it can join. Secondly, these very hollow security guarantees. Not, not just no detail on what guarantee America has provided, but actually no European troops allowed into Ukraine, all this stuff about planes in Poland.

• 23:13Rory Stewart?

  And, and the third thing is the whole wider security of Europe because the reason why this matters to us is that if Putin triumphs in Ukraine in this way, there is a considerable risk that he will then continue to push ahead in places like the Baltic. And, you know, people keep talking about the Russians needing three to five years to build up an army capable of fighting NATO. I don't see why he couldn't actually simply move his troops, move his troops straight from Ukraine to the Baltic border. And you can see him testing already, testing the drones, testing with attacks. So there's nothing here that explains, I suppose, the big question, which is what is going on in Trump's head?

• 23:57Rory Stewart?

  Now, if I was being cynical, and I, I hunt you on this, this ties in with my prejudice, which is I've basically kept saying. Since November that he's on Putin's side, his view of this is Putin's view of this. And this hopeful message that we kept hearing from European leaders, that they'd changed Trump's mind, they'd shown him something he didn't understand, you know, one month we were told that they'd shown him that Russia was less powerful than he thought, next month we were told they'd explained the importance for Europe. And you remember all this hokey-cokey, you know, bringing Putin to Alaska, putting out tweets saying he was cross, shouting at Zelensky, not shouting at Zelensky. But the common theme, I think, remains totally unbroken.

• 24:43Rory Stewart?

  Trump is much more consistent than people appreciate. This deal is only a hair breadth different from the deal that Russia was asking for and that basically Trump was fantasizing about when he said he could fix it in 24 hours.

• 24:57Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah, a couple of points that we didn't cover, one of them is very important, point 25, Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days. Well, you know why Russia wants that, because they've convinced themselves that Zelensky might lose.

• 25:09Rory Stewart?

  US wants for the same reason, they also want rid of Zelensky.

• 25:11Alastair Campbell?

  And one of the, one of the leaders that I spoke to in Johannesburg said they were very suspicious that the timing was related to the fact that Zelensky is kind of engulfed or his team is engulfed in this corruption scandal that some of the people close to him have got involved in that. And then we've also got, Roy, just as we had in Gaza, point 27, the agreement will be legally binding, its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the peace council headed by President Donald J. Trump. So we've got a peace plan, he's on the board of peace in Gaza, he's on the peace council in Ukraine. And I think that the, I think that the, what I, if you're, if you're Zelensky there, and we got that guy, he's got so much kind of resilience and courage.

• 25:56Alastair Campbell?

  So his initial reaction was to say, this is the most difficult moment in Ukraine's history. We're either going to have to surrender our dignity. Or we're going to have to lose a very, very important ally. Since when, and this is a sort of, this is a repeat of previous patterns of behaviour. Since when the Europeans have now come out, and to be fair, they seem pretty united. They're saying the right things. But I just think sometimes because we all have to bow down to Trump in the way that so many leaders do. And even Zelensky was doing it tonight. Trump put out this most ridiculous social media post where he said. Ukraine is showing zero gratitude for the efforts that we're making. And Zelensky put out a statement saying, I'm very grateful to everybody who's trying to

• 26:41Alastair Campbell?

  save our country and save the lives of our people, but.

• 26:44Rory Stewart?

  One of the mysteries here, which is, I guess, a mystery that we got to with the ceasefire deal that he pushed through in Gaza. Is why other countries sign up to this? And this is basically about American power. So if you say to the Palestinians, or indeed a lot of the Gulf states, why on earth did you accept that particular ceasefire deal? They say, in the end, we had no choice. We'd run out of room here. So the question is, will he be able to pull it off again? Because Trump's gamble is always the same. It's that if I don't care about including the other side and I just get behind one side in this. I can force through an end to the fighting, at least temporarily.

• 27:29Rory Stewart?

  I don't fix any of the underlying problems. But I get, I get a bit of space where I get to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Now, this is a bit different. Here, he's not dealing with small Gulf monarchies. Who are very wealthy, but are nevertheless relatively small countries compared to Europe as an economic size. In fact, their economic size is a fraction of Europe's. And he's not dealing with Hamas, he's dealing with Ukraine that was invaded. So what leverage has he got? How's he going to make this happen? Why are European leaders being polite? Why is Zelensky saying, I'm very grateful? Why are we hearing people saying, well, look, this could be the beginning of a negotiation? What do they mean by that? Well, all they mean by that is we're scared witless that we're going to really annoy Trump.

• 28:14Rory Stewart?

  And what we're really worried about is he can do things he hasn't done. So he can suspend all intelligence and satellite cooperation entirely.

• 28:24Alastair Campbell?

  Which he did very, very briefly before, didn't he?

• 28:25Rory Stewart?

  He did, exactly. Sorry, you, you, you pulled me up there. I think, sorry, that, that's worth bearing in mind that actually, some of the things I'm about to list, he has done and then stopped doing them. But that probably means that if somebody says, well, he's never going to do that, you could turn around and say, well, actually, he has done that. So stop, uh, intelligence and satellite sharing. Stop the sale of key weapon systems like Patriots. Stop the sale of European weapon systems which have American components in them. So there's a complicated American law that allows them to block things made by the British, Germans and French that have American components in them. And ultimately, he could push ahead and start doing more aggressive things.

• 29:06Rory Stewart?

  Sanctions, pressure against the Ukrainians and anyone who's supporting them. And Trump is capable of doing those things, which is why, I guess, even though everybody looking at this agrees with you, agrees this is a terrible deal, this is a Russian deal, you're hearing people say, well, this could be the beginning for a negotiation. We're very grateful.

• 29:26Alastair Campbell?

  Apparently, the discussion that the European leaders were having in, in Johannesburg, uh, and including Canada and including Japan, uh, and including, you know, some of the others who were there. And the people I spoke to said there was no dissent about this. There was, the only discussion was whether actually to reject this outright or, and to say, we will bring forward our own, or to do what they've done, which is to say, this is a point of departure, but it's going to need radical change before Ukraine or Europe can accept it. And just on the other point in Europe, Roy, in his insulting tweet about, um, his post today about, uh, Zelensky showing zero gratitude.

• 30:07Alastair Campbell?

  He also said, you know, he's, he's angry with Europe because they're continuing to buy, buy Russian oil. The only ones who continue to buy Russian oil are Hungary, with his blessing from a meeting with Orban recently, and Slovakia, his friends.

• 30:19Rory Stewart?

  Who he said could continue to do this, yeah. Um, so that then brings us to what is the American position? So one of the things that America is perpetually doing, particularly at the sort of senior official level. Is pushing the blame onto Europe. So they will say, and you know, they're right in this. Europe has not spent enough on defence. It's spent forty years not investing enough. And therefore, they say, it's your fault. It's Europe's problem. This is not the United States' problem. You sort it out. And then if you're Elbridge Colby, you say, we've got to focus on China. Russia doesn't matter. China's what matters. China's much bigger than Russia. The US is going to focus on China. Europe can deal with Russia.

• 30:58Rory Stewart?

  But if you really push and say, okay, but what happens if you can't trust Putin? What happens if he invades the Baltic? Maybe it's true. I mean, it probably is true. Sorry, definitely true that Europe's not invested enough in defence. But the fact is, in the next three, four years, they're not going to be there. So are you going to be providing the support to help Europe step up? I mean, if you're, if you're sincere, if what you're saying is, we want to focus on China. Europe is meant to be taking on Russia, then you would expect the US to be saying, here are the loans. Here are the weapons systems. Here is the glide path. This is when we exit. This is how we're standing up the European armies.

• 31:40Rory Stewart?

  And my guess is, actually, if you were to say, but what happens if you're wrong and Putin invades the Baltic? The answer at some level, coming from people like J D Vance, is pretty close to, we don't care. And it's beginning to feel like J D Vance does not like Europe. You saw, we saw that in that amazing signal exchange. Really doesn't like what he sees as the liberal democracies of Europe. And the whole system, which America has set up since nineteen forty five, which was, we're on the side of liberal democracies, human rights, democratic values, against autocrats like Russia has got out the window. And they're behaving as though these are two places at the other end of the world, who they don't have any stake in and they don't care about at all.

• 32:21Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah, that's why, you know, you and I were talking yesterday and, and sort of saying, I think people are underestimating the significance of this. And, and you mentioned Vance. I think, I think this all goes back to Vance's Munich speech. Interestingly, Vance was, was the, more than Trump, Vance has been the one who's been talking directly to Zelensky of late. The other thing that's really sort of interesting and, and quite new about this, you've always had kind of advisors and what have you. But this, this idea of Sort of diplomat freelance diplomacy. So the pictures, as I say, of the meeting with um with Zelensky's chief of staff with Witkoff. There's Witkoff, there's Rubio, who's the secretary of state, you'd think he'd be the main guy. But there's Witkoff, there's Jared Kushner.

• 33:03Alastair Campbell?

  And you mentioned earlier, this guy Kirill Dmitriev, the he's the guy on the Russian side. And he seems to have completely sidelined Sergey Lavrov. And if you remember our interview with Radek Sikorski, the Polish deputy prime minister. He said Lavrov's just a kind of, he's just a vassal. This guy, this guy is actually born in Ukraine. Uh, in his pre, in a previous part of his life, he was actually a voice for Ukrainian independence. He's educated at Harvard, he's worked for Goldman Sachs, he's worked for McKinsey. He's run a huge sovereign, a huge equity fund. And he apparently, I don't know the guy, but I talked to somebody who does, who says that, or knows about him.

• 33:46Alastair Campbell?

  And who said that this guy, he was featured in the Mueller report on Russian interference in the American elections. He was actually on the sanctions list at the time of the invasion. Of course, Trump has kind of led him off that. And he's now, he's now driving Russian policy with Witkoff.

• 34:01Rory Stewart?

  And certainly the big suspicion at the top of the American administration, which is confirmed basically by WhatsApp messages from Witkoff himself, is that this was the working draft between Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev. And the Kirill Dmitriev deliberately leaked it in order to put Ukraine, America on the spot. Force Trump not to deny it. Now, the question then is, you know, what is the status of this thing? Is Europe and the West again going to get Trump to back off from the Russian position?

• 34:34Alastair Campbell?

  Well, they have to, they have to, they have no choice, they have no choice on this. They can't, they can't, Ukraine cannot possibly accept. Of those 28 points, I'd say there are, you could put on one hand the ones that they might be able to accept. This is a, this, let me just give you the headline of the, of the Kiev Independent paper. US peace plan pushes Ukraine towards capitulation. The word that's being used is capitulation, surrender, suicide. I mentioned Liza Yasko, the MP. Um, this is, this is just truly horrible for the Ukrainians.

• 35:05Rory Stewart?

  And, and the question of course is, how do you? Change Trump's mind because you've used all the arguments. I mean, you could think back in January or February that Trump doesn't really understand this, the stuff he doesn't get. So a lot of those initial briefings, the Europeans were trying to turn up and with intelligence briefs and this stuff, but he's heard it all now. He's heard it enough times that he's sick of hearing it. So you're not going to be able to say to Trump or Vance or Driscoll, who I think was even a college roommate of J D Vance, the Secretary of the Army, turned up in Kiev as this piece was launched to try to force it through the system. So this, this treaty, all the hope now is that although Vance and Driscoll and Whitkoff

• 35:48Rory Stewart?

  seem to want it, is it going to be a counter move from Marco Rubio? Can someone else get to Trump? Can the European leaders pull off a miracle? But I'm still left with this question, Alison, maybe we should head over to comments. But what is it that allows Trump to back down for this? Does he care what the European leaders think? Why is it that we keep seeing this repeated pattern of him essentially selling out Ukraine and then a few days later being sort of talked off the ledge?

• 36:20Alastair Campbell?

  I mean, you, look, he is capable of changing his posture and all sorts of things. I mean, I don't know if you watched that extraordinary meeting in the Oval Office with Zoran Mandani, the newly elected mayor of New York. I mean, quite frankly, Trump looked like he had a massive great crush on him. He was sort of stroking his arm and he was.

• 36:37Rory Stewart?

  But, but isn't, but isn't that, isn't that your point that you make with Michael Wolff about reality TV, which is that Trump has an instinct for how to catch the headlines? And it's much more exciting in the headlines. If he goes from saying this man is a communist who should be in jail to this man is my best friend. And then next week, go back to this is man, a communist who should be in jail. Yeah.

• 36:59Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah. And he said at one point, he said at the one point, Mandani, he said, you know, I've had all sorts of world leaders in here, but you know, you should see how many cameras there are outside for this guy, you know, it was like, but also with it and within, so he can change his posture. And likewise, you know, within that, somebody asked him about the row with the BBC. And although he rambled on about the BBC, he was at pains to say, I really like Keir Starmer. He's a good guy. He's got problems at home, but I really like Keir Starmer. He's a good guy. The one who is. I think been quite robust, as you know, I look at a lot of German media. Merz has been, Merz had a telephone call with Trump where he, you know, Keir Starmer tends to have these telephone calls and they put out a line saying that working together, close cooperation, da, da, da, da, da.

• 37:44Alastair Campbell?

  The line from the German government was much more, you know, Merz had a long telephone call with Trump and made clear that this was unacceptable to Ukraine and Europe. Von der Leyen has done a rather effective piece to camera today, is, you know, repeating the lines, but essentially saying you cannot. But partly what you're saying, that you're talking here about a sovereign country, that you're asking to do things that go completely against its own sovereign interests. And also made the point, Ukraine has chosen Europe, Ukraine has made that choice. And no outside power from across the Atlantic or anywhere else can come along and say, no, that that is the wrong choice.

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• 40:05Alastair Campbell?

  We've got loads, we're getting loads of comments and questions.

• 40:07Rory Stewart?

  Here's one that I wanted to tackle quickly. Elaine Schallus 1179. How much what's going on in America right now is going to be determined by the outcome of the Vance Rubio struggle? Oh, and listen, I haven't paid enough tribute to the extraordinary Jack Watling, who does stuff for Rusty, who very kindly interrupted his Sunday to talk me through things. And again, obviously, the errors are mine and the good information is his. But anyway, Elaine Schallus, on the outcome of Vance Rubio's struggle, I am much more worried by Vance, actually, almost than by Trump. Because I think Trump is all the things that you've said. Peculiar, erratic, reality TV. Vance, I'm beginning to think, has a real problem with the European

• 40:50Rory Stewart?

  Union, with Western liberal democracy, with European allies. And, and he isn't like Elbridge Colby, a tilt to China guy. I think he's a full-on, America has nothing to do with the rest of the world. Let's retreat behind our big, beautiful ocean and occasionally throw some bombs at Venezuelan boats.

• 41:10Alastair Campbell?

  What I guess the questioner is assuming that Vance Rubio, of course, the other thing that's happened in Magellan is Marjorie, Marjorie Taylor Greene, or Traitor Greene, as he now calls her, clearly trying to stake out a very, very different position. We've got a question, lots of questions on this theme. I'll just give you one. Leon, Trip Plus member from Hampshire. What will it take for the British public and media to start taking the threat from Russia seriously? Surely such a threat should be dominating the political discourse. And just on that, Roy, I am absolutely staggered. I didn't watch the BBC this morning, but I saw a thing on Twitter. And it said, how did Laura Koonsberg manage to get through an hours program without mentioning that last year, a former MEP

• 41:54Alastair Campbell?

  went to jail for taking bribes from the Kremlin?

• 41:58Rory Stewart?

  And it has been sent to jail for 10 years?

• 42:01Alastair Campbell?

  10 and a half years.

• 42:02Rory Stewart?

  Yeah.

• 42:02Alastair Campbell?

  Now, how is that not a, and you know, on the day after, on Saturday, the only newspapers that had it on the front page were The Mirror and The Guardian. There is, I'm sorry to say this, there is a right wing media conspiracy to, as I kept saying on our live show, to what Chris Mason calls the rise and rise of reform, that that is the story that the right wing media want.

• 42:24Rory Stewart?

  Yeah, well, just to remind people, this was a guy who was the head of Farage's party in Wales, who was with Farage in the European Parliament, and who's pled guilty, he said, I did it, to taking Russian money to pursue Russian interests in European Parliament. In fact, the only sad thing is that we haven't, because he pled guilty, we haven't had the full evidence played out in court.

• 42:43Alastair Campbell?

  But there's a lot, there's a, there's a lot of stuff that did come out in court, which, which, which exposes the extent to which the Russians do this. I actually honestly think, I, I, I really do think it's time for the government to, to, to set up a full inquiry into the interference of Russia in our democracy, including Brexit. And let me tell you this, Roy, about, this is, this is such a European thing. So the question from Leon, this debate is happening, as we saw with the interview with Sikorski in Poland, it's happening in, in Finland, it's happening in Estonia, it's happening in Latvia and Lithuania. But as Sikorski said, if Ukraine falls, we're next in line. That's what he said. And I think, and the French, I don't know if you saw the French, the head of the

• 43:25Alastair Campbell?

  French military this week, did an address to all the mayors of France to say, are we really preparing people for what might lie ahead, that we are going to lose some of our children in a war with Russia?

• 43:36Rory Stewart?

  Well, but this, so Awesome Penguin42 says, this is very, sounds like Boris Johnson, "See vis pacem parabellum." So, you know, if, if you want peace, prepare for war. It's as relevant today as ever, I fear. I, I think we, we are there. I mean, just, just on that, when I'm trying to explain what's happening to my children, what I'm trying to explain is that the reason why these conversations matter is that we're getting closer to war. We're getting closer to something that we in Britain haven't really seen since the Second World War. And all the lessons and all the architecture that was set up after the Second World War to try to keep European peace with America at the heart of it.

• 44:20Rory Stewart?

  Is being dismantled and it's being dismantled not as America sometimes tries to suggest, you know, responsibly because we want to focus on China because Europe needs to be spending more on its defence. It's being done entirely irresponsibly through carelessness and I'm afraid greed.

• 44:40Alastair Campbell?

  Hmm. I don't know if you managed to see him last week, but I saw your friend Gerald Knaus last week for lunch.

• 44:47Rory Stewart?

  I did indeed, I had dinner with him the day you had lunch with him.

• 44:49Alastair Campbell?

  Okay, very good. So he was doing, he was doing the rounds and I know he's seen lots of people inside the government as well. Um, but what was he, I've actually spent part of the afternoon writing my column for the New World and I've written a thanks to Gerald about some information that he sent me. And it was a paper published by the Alternative for Deutschland, the hard right party in Germany. And it was setting out how they would, quote, save 66 billion euros from the budget. Okay. Get this, stopping arms deliveries to Ukraine, 8.7 billion cut. Reduction of payments to the EU, 18 billion cut. So that's the amount of the European Union. On top of the Ukraine, cuts to excessive defence spending, 10.7 billion.

• 45:33Alastair Campbell?

  Cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund, 36.7 billion. Other, numerous other unnecessary or insufficient government expenditures, back of a fag packet, here we go, 66 billion. Now, just think about that, that's Germany, whereas you and I've been talking quite regularly, 30% in the polls, almost certainly going to win these regional elections, uh, next year, Meads under pressure to say, maybe we should do a deal with them, bladdy, bladdy, bladdy, blah. Meads, to be fair to him, is holding firm. But there you have, that is why Putin, part, one of the reasons why Putin is prepared to play a long game, he thinks Trump will always side with him and he thinks if he can get rid of Macron, or if the French get rid of Macron and the Germans put the AFD into a

• 46:17Alastair Campbell?

  position of power, he's kind of home and dry. So that, and I think we, why do we talk about the E3? This meeting today, one of the leaders I was talking to said, he was very pleased, he's not there, they're not part of it, but the E3 is there. The E3 is France, Germany and the UK. And people can rage about Keir Starmer being this and Keir Starmer being that. I've got to be, I've got to be, I'm quite pleased that he and Jonathan Powell are involved in this right now.

• 46:41Rory Stewart?

  But this point about the AFD in Germany is, and of course, as you've pointed out. JD Vance reached out to them, Elon Musk profiles them as well as profiling Tommy Robinson. And a lot of this relates back to the whole vision that they get from Hungary. I mean, this is, we forget how a lot of the people on the populist right are hanging out together. This will be true for people in the UKIP or Brexit or Reform camp in Britain. This is true for the Le Pen crowd, for the AFD crowd. They're all going to these conferences in London, in Budapest, they're sharing ideas.

• 47:20Rory Stewart?

  And those ideas are, of course, as you say, often pro Russia, anti-climate, anti-immigration, but also anti-liberal democracy, anti-woke, dismantle the universities, go after civil society, go after the judges. So the world that Vance is imagining is a world where he's putting ideology and culture wars, right, his hatred of liberal democracy, ahead of America's actual long-term security interests. He's supporting parties like the F D, which will make for a much weaker Germany and a much more dangerous conflict-prone Europe.

• 48:02Rory Stewart?

  These are far-right nationalists who want nothing to do with international cooperation. And the one thing we know about far-right nationalists in Europe with weapons is that it doesn't end well.

• 48:12Alastair Campbell?

  Well, the other thing they would cut is all overseas and international aid. Question here from Sir Wig, not a question, a statement. Europe now has to take the US's place, no matter the consequences. I mean, I guess that is part of what the MAGA right is kind of pushing for. It's your problem, you deal with it. And I think that part of what Europe is doing is sort of buying time. They actually, I think, it's agreed, Zelensky believes this, Starmer believes this, Macron believes this, they all believe this, that the American, whether we like it or not, the Americans are fundamental to any solution here. So they're trying to keep them broadly on board, but buy time to, for European to develop his better defenses.

• 48:53Rory Stewart?

  We're beginning to see also some of the arguments here. Paul Maders, five, four, three, four. While Rory really wants war, why do people like these want to always send someone else's kids to die? Well, with respect, the people who are sounding the alarm on this are people who have served their country.

• 49:12Rory Stewart?

  Al Khans, who's now doing operations in the Ministry of Defence, is a British Colonel who's had more frontline experience, Paul, than you will ever have in your life. Ben Wallace, the previous Secretary of Defence, had been a regular soldier in the military. I was in Iraq and in Afghanistan, being shot at. This is absolutely nonsensical and disgusting. The reason why we are saying that we have to prepare and defend ourselves is exactly because we've seen places like Iraq and Afghanistan. We know how horrendous it is when things go wrong. And this idea that you're going to be safe by putting your head in the ground and not getting a sense of urgency, I mean, this is really at the heart of it. We don't have a sense of urgency.

• 49:56Rory Stewart?

  And if you really think about what's happening, we will be giving money to BAE Systems, we'll be signing procurement contracts, Rheinmetall in Germany will be making stuff. But there is not remotely a sense of this is a national effort, everybody together. We sit and, you know, we look at the problem, we admire the problem, we can't get 20,000 troops up to the Baltic. Fix it, do it.

• 50:19Alastair Campbell?

  Yeah. The, the, and the other thing, this, this, it is really strange to me that America, we've made this point before, Trump's America seems to value its relationship with traditional enemies more than with traditional allies. And the hard right across Europe, in which I would include Nigel Farage and Reform, they seem more tempted by a Putin style of leadership than a more civilized, standardized European leadership. And what was really interesting about that, that when Nathan Gill was sentenced the other day, I don't think Farage has said a word. And, you know, he's normally never off the BBC, but he's not, doesn't seem to have appeared, or perhaps they've just lost his phone number.

• 50:59Alastair Campbell?

  But he is, he's somebody who, on the, the messaging from Reform, on the day the, the plan came out, was you had Richard Tyson's, you say, this plan is unacceptable to Ukraine. Brackets, we haven't really said much like this before, but we've just had one of our people go down to jail for being too close to Russia and taking bribes off them, so we better pretend. I actually think there is something very, very strange. And I think it relates to the extent to which, the, the security service have been warning about this for years, Russia does not stint when it comes to hybrid warfare, it doesn't stint when it comes to intelligence gathering. And I think there is something very, very strange about the relationship of these

• 51:43Alastair Campbell?

  hard right parties and Putin's Russia, and we need to do a better job of looking into it, media and government included.

• 51:52Rory Stewart?

  Well, maybe, maybe final one for me. I think two things to take away. One is this document lays out now in black and white what Trump's position really is, what he really thinks of Europe, what he really thinks of Russia, what he really thinks the international system, the international order. And we should never fool ourselves again about who we're dealing with, the kind of guy we're dealing with. And don't underestimate that effectively what the US is saying is that it doesn't have allies anymore, that it no longer cares about the Western alliance, it no longer cares about values, it no longer cares about human rights, it no longer cares about state sovereignty, it no longer cares about liberal democracy.

• 52:38Rory Stewart?

  What Trump fundamentally cares about is making money. Right at the heart of this deal is minerals deals, 50% profits, doing business with Russia. Right at the heart of the Gaza deal is real estate deals, right? And the second thing I think that we need to take from this is your, is your point, which is if we now are facing a Europe which is in almost every conceivable way making the world poorer through its tariffs, more dangerous through its policies on international treaties, not even turning up at the G20, let alone tramping at it.

• 53:14Alastair Campbell?

  Or COP.

• 53:15Rory Stewart?

  Or COP, threatening to invade Greenland to take it off Denmark. We need to step up and stepping up is a complete change in mindset. That is a Europe and a Britain that we just haven't seen. We can do it, of course we can, right? This is 500 million people, this is one of the wealthiest regions in the world. If we wanted in three, four years' time to be in a position where Putin wouldn't think of touching us, we could be there. But we'd have to start now and do it seriously.

• 53:43Alastair Campbell?

  And your, your point on, on values and the rule of law and all that other stuff that goes with democracy.

• 53:49Alastair Campbell?

  The other big meeting in the Oval Office that got a lot of attention last week was, was Trump with Mohammed bin Salman. Leader of Saudi Arabia and a journalist from ABC asked a perfectly reasonable question about Khashoggi, who was famously journalist, who was famously lured into an embassy abroad and hacked to death or was chainsawed to death. And before MBS could reply, Trump basically attacked the journalist, fake news, ABC, horrible woman, da, da, da, da, da, and then went on to say, a lot of people didn't like that gentleman, and these things happen. In other

• 54:30Alastair Campbell?

  words, and, and so there you are, so far as he's concerned, if he's with the strong man leader that he likes, they are entitled to do absolutely what they want. Of course, that's what he believes he should be allowed to do exactly what he wants. And I think for Zelensky, and I know this, this corruption stuff is murky, and people close to him have clearly sort of, you know, let him down. But I, I think we've just got to stand by him as somebody who is really in one of the most difficult places it is imaginable for a world leader to be placed. And European leaders, Canada, Mark Harni, the Japanese, Australians, New Zealanders and others. I think one of these leaders said to me that we just have

• 55:12Alastair Campbell?

  to understand, he actually mentioned, you know, lots of the leaders who were at G20 are also a cop. Two big summits in recent days, he said, both boycotted by Trump in America. Trump gets all the attention. We got a lot of work done. We got a lot of stuff done. We can do a lot of stuff with or without the United States. They're the most powerful country in the world, along with China. We have to work with them. We have to trade with them. We have to do our best. But we are kidding ourselves, he said, if we don't understand, our world of diplomacy has fundamentally changed. And that's what Zelensky is finding out right now.

• 55:45Rory Stewart?

  Well, Alastair, thank you. Thank you for everybody who joined us and for all the comments, for the challenges, for the questions. And look forward to seeing you soon. We got question time coming. Got the UK budget coming, but this is something we've got to keep focused on.

• 55:59Alastair Campbell?

  See you soon. Bye bye.

• 55:59Rory Stewart?

  Bye bye.

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