Raging Moderates: Why Progressives Won’t WIN in the 2026 Midterms (ft. David Frum)

On the heels of the No Kings protests that drew an estimated seven million Americans, there seems to be a strong coalition to take on Trump and the GOP. But, what will the Democrats’ message be? Jessica Tarlov and guest host David Frum of The Atlantic discuss the Democratic Party’s predicament — and the value of tacking to the center. Plus: is there a justifiable rationale for the Trump administration’s deadly strikes on boats in the Caribbean? And, Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner’s insurgent campaign was set back last week by years of past internet comments coming to light. He has taken responsibility for his remarks — but, in a primary against Gov. Janet Mills, will it matter? Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov. Follow Prof G, @profgalloway. Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod. Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required. Compatibility and availability varies 18 plus.

• 0:27Speaker 01

  Hogging seats on a crowded train, not saying, excuse me, watching videos on your phone with no headphones in. Sometimes it feels like we don't know how to act anymore. What we have been seeing increasingly is people breaking rules. Why should I play by the rules if nobody else is going to do that for me? This week on Explain It To Me, how to mind your manners. New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

• 0:59Jessica Tarlov?

  Welcome to Rage and Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlov. Scott is out today, but we have a fantastic replacement, someone that Scott is actually obsessed with. So it's always good when that works out. I have the Atlantic's David from here. David, it's so good to have you.

• 1:11Speaker 03

  Thank you. I didn't know I had this virtual relationship with Scott.

• 1:14Jessica Tarlov?

  Oh, he has a virtual relationship with a lot of people. And he tells me, well, he says it publicly. But if you don't listen to every Scott podcast, which frankly would require you to quit your job and only consume Scott Galloway content, you would know that he uses your line from your 2019 piece, "If liberals won't enforce borders, fascists will," constantly. So.

• 1:35Speaker 03

  All right, well, thank you. I'm honored. Okay.

• 1:38Jessica Tarlov?

  Oh, if you're uncomfortable with the praise, I can move on to.

• 1:40Speaker 03

  No.

• 1:42Jessica Tarlov?

  You want more?

• 1:42Speaker 03

  Oh, pshaw.

• 1:46Jessica Tarlov?

  Are you a baseball fan? Because your Blue Jays won the pennant last night.

• 1:51Speaker 03

  So my son is a Blue Jays obsessive.

• 1:53Jessica Tarlov?

  Okay.

• 1:54Speaker 03

  And this has actually been a kind of, my late father was a sports fan, and I was such a disappointment to him. So I would go to games and read a book. And he was, it just broke his heart. But God has judgments in store for people who break their father's heart, which is my son. I have three children, but my son was a sports fan. And I had to take him. And with your son, you can't read a book. Isn't this great, Dad? Oh, yeah, loving every. In uncountable second of this unending spectacle. So anyway, he is so into the Blue Jays. He is so crazy about this. So yeah, big day.

• 2:27Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah. My favorite line about it, I'm not a tremendous baseball fan, but I was thinking about, you know, we've never met. We just messaged a little bit. So how can I connect with David Frum in the banter section? So I was like, oh, Blue Jays, you're from Toronto. But it's the first time that we'll have a World Series with teams from two cities that the president has threatened to invade. That was my favorite commentary on the situation.

• 2:50Speaker 03

  That's very good. If the Blue Jays win, the United States becomes the 11th province. I think that's that there should be a little like, um, action on the table.

• 2:56Jessica Tarlov?

  Is that how it works?

• 2:57Speaker 03

  I think, I think that should be how it works.

• 2:58Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, I'm sure Carney has something funny going for how he'll react. I think we nailed it in the banter section. So I'm going to get into the, the meat of the pod. In today's episode of Raging Moderates, we're going to talk about why Democrats are still running against Trump, why Trump is creating chaos for our southern neighbors. And we're checking in on Graham Platner's race and his controversial Reddit posts.

• 3:20Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 3:21Jessica Tarlov?

  So it has been nearly a year since Democrats lost the White House. I'm still sad, but you wouldn't know it from watching their campaign ads. From Virginia to New Jersey to California, candidates are still running hard against Donald Trump, warning voters that the Republican opponents are just extensions of the presidency. Strategy may fire up the base, and it looks like it does, based on this weekend's No Kings protest, but critics say it risks sounding stale at a time when voters are looking for something more forward looking. I want to start with Democrats' strategy right now. What do you make of the, you know, running against Trump all the time approach?

• 3:56Speaker 03

  Well, can I just say something as someone who does this for a living?

• 3:58Jessica Tarlov?

  Yes.

• 3:59Speaker 03

  About the construction of the New York Times story that we're talking about? So, so there you are, a Democratic pollster going about your business, polling for mayors and governors and so on. And the New York Times calls up and they say, what do you think about the future? What, what do you think the Democratic message should be? And maybe you're caught off guard and maybe you don't want to give away stuff for free. So you say, I think elections are about the future. The most anodyne, boring, meaningless thing. And I think the Democrats need an affirmative message as they campaign for the future. So that's all you've said. You've said nothing. But the New York Times reporter, who's responding to different constituencies that say, you know, this guy Graham Platner, you progressives foisted on the party. He's a disaster and you shouldn't have done that. So what you do is you take the completely anodyne quote from the Democratic pollster

• 4:41Speaker 03

  and you plug it into a story that is to say, my progressive friends who foisted Graham Platner on the party and Mamdani and all the others, that was not a disaster. That was a good idea because you see elections need to be about the future. So you don't have an evidentiary basis. It's a pure opinion piece of a kind that you're seeing in some progressive places because Graham Platner is a disaster. And they're trying to build this into something. And when you sort of add up the article, I think, okay, Donald Trump is the president of the United States. He's a president who said he intends unconstitutionally to stay for a third term if he possibly can. He completely controls his party. He's raising taxes without Congress. He's imposing spending without Congress. He's demolishing the White House without permission from Congress. He's quite unpopular.

• 5:24Speaker 03

  There are important races ahead in Virginia, New Jersey and New York soon. And there are midterms that may or may not be free and fair next year. Of course you run against the president. Who would say otherwise? And the only people who say otherwise are the people who are trying to convince their nervous followers that Graham Platner was not a disaster.

• 5:40Jessica Tarlov?

  Well, I definitely want to get into the Graham Platner of it all. But in the piece that we're talking about, so this was Shane Goldmacher's big piece from, it was published on the 19th. And it was one of the articles that was most texted around, I would say, in democratic circles. And it, I think part of it was that it came off of the high of the No Kings protest, which felt like, hey, we're alive. And then Shane was like, Not really, or like you're alive, but you've been saying the same thing on loop. And I totally get your point that when you have an opponent that is so unpopular, and there are so many different threads to his unpopularity that you could pick at, that it's smart to run against it.

• 6:22Jessica Tarlov?

  But Shane also had spoken to Chris Listavita, who's Donald Trump's pollster, who said that this was a one dimensional strategy.

• 6:30Speaker 03

  Wait a minute, Donald Trump's pollster thought it was not a good idea for Democrats to run against Donald Trump?

• 6:34Jessica Tarlov?

  No, no, no, no.

• 6:37Jessica Tarlov?

  Listen.

• 6:38Speaker 03

  Okay, I guess we should follow your advice, sir.

• 6:40Jessica Tarlov?

  There is more to this.

• 6:41Speaker 03

  Like, isn't that?

• 6:42Jessica Tarlov?

  But they figured out something that we didn't. And I have listened to many interviews with Chris Listavita, and some of it I find super annoying and detestable. And some of it, I think, like, he got something that we didn't. And I'm not saying that we won't, Democrats won't win the midterms. I'm not saying that special elections haven't been going in our direction. But there are a lot of people who voted for Donald Trump in 2024, who gave him a shot again, right? Who voted for him in 2016, then Biden 2020 and went back.

• 7:13Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 7:13Jessica Tarlov?

  And also, I'm thinking about younger people, where the same kind of messaging doesn't resonate. They actually do need a positive view of what the future is going to look like, or candidates that are talking about something that feels different from Donald Trump has autocratic tendencies.

• 7:30Speaker 03

  Can I dissent from that?

• 7:31Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah.

• 7:31Speaker 03

  It's not just the autocratic.

• 7:32Jessica Tarlov?

  That's why you're here.

• 7:32Speaker 03

  Okay, so, once there is a Democratic nominee for president, that individual person will need an individual person's message. That's a bit off. What is upcoming are the 2026 elections, which may or may not be free and fair. And I keep saying that, and people say, yeah, yeah. But like, that's a really important asterisk.

• 7:50Jessica Tarlov?

  JB Pritzker was here a couple of weeks ago, saying the same thing.

• 7:54Speaker 03

  But if they are free and fair, the Democrats will not win those elections. Trump will lose them. And there will not, there cannot be a message, because the message that works in one place is not the message that works in another place. And one of the reasons the out party does well in midterms is the out party has the possibility to run different races in different places, whereas the in party has to run the same race everywhere. So if you're a Republican... Anywhere, you have to defend the tariffs. You have to defend Americans being forced to pay more for everything. You have to defend Trump raising taxes without permission of Congress. You have to defend the spending. You have to defend the wars in the Caribbean. You have to defend everything. But if you're on the other side, you can attack where your constituents are most likely to be impressed by the line of attack. And you can emphasize different parts of the incumbent's record.

• 8:38Speaker 03

  Then when people try to sell you a vision of you need an affirmative message in a midterm election. What they're usually trying to do is bootstrap into the party discussion. An argument that would not succeed on its merits. Um, I mean, the No Kings rally demonstrated. You know who is very responsive to the anti-Trump message? Not super ideological, middle of the road boomers who normally Alex B. Keaton, remember him?

• 9:02Jessica Tarlov?

  I do.

• 9:03Speaker 03

  He was at the No Kings rally, I'm sure in like he's a fictional character. But he was there with his wife and daughters and they're very upset about different. He's upset about the tariffs and the wife.

• 9:11Jessica Tarlov?

  These are your NPR listeners, right? That's a.

• 9:14Speaker 03

  Not so much. These are your Atlantic subscribers, actually. These are, uh, these are the people who vote in for PTA. These are the people who show up all the time. Um, these are people who don't move around that much, who have homes. That is your midterm electorate and it's not that progressive. And so a lot of the progressive energy in the party is trying to bootstrap. Well, we need an affirmative message. Here's an affirmative message. Let's do this. When in fact, what is going to happen in 2026, if Americans are allowed to, they're going to vote. Some will vote against the tariffs and some will vote against the wars in the Caribbean. And some will vote against the autocratic tendencies and some will vote against the mass roundup into tensions. And everybody will have their own reasons. And you've got a coalition here that spans Bernie Sanders to Ann Romney. Um, and you have to talk to all of them and get them all motivated. And the affirmative message is for the presidential election.

• 9:59Speaker 03

  When, when you have an individual person who can make individual decisions.

• 10:03Jessica Tarlov?

  Okay. I'm putting Chris LaSavita aside. You've made him no longer relevant, but you did say something about how the No Kings crowd. No, I, listen, this is fun. This is like lively right off the bat. You know, sometimes when you meet a new podcast friend, you don't know how it's going to go. But I'm thoroughly enjoying it so far. This feels not quite like the five, but we're alive this morning, uh, which is great. And you said something about how the no kings crowd wasn't that progressive. And there was a big look into the candidates who have been winning their elections. And that the Times did pretty graphics as well. And they were emphasizing how it's usually the moderate candidates that end up winning these elections.

• 10:45Jessica Tarlov?

  And one of the things that came out of it that flies a bit in the face of what people had been thinking for a long time is that it's actually the economically progressive and socially moderate, or even socially conservative candidates that are doing well. It had always been, at least for me and kind of the circles that I run in, this idea that you had to be socially liberal and more fiscally conservative in order to win votes. But that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. If you look at like a Ruben Gallego and the way that he talks, right? He's unabashedly, you know, Medicare for all, tax the billionaires, always talking about corporate greed. Jon Ossoff is doing the same thing. And you're seeing that all over the country, but then they're shying away from being as socially liberal as certainly the reputation for the party has been. What do you make of that?

• 11:29Jessica Tarlov?

  Do you think that is the secret sauce to Democrats being able to win?

• 11:33Speaker 03

  We're talking in congressional elections, it depends where. So that's not Abigail Spanberger's formula. That's not the formula in New Jersey. That's not Lizzie Fletcher's formula in Texas seven. So in 2018, Democrats made their breakthroughs in House elections in places that were kind of upscale. I keep pointing out in 2018, they won what had been George H W Bush's district that had not gone Democratic since before the civil rights era. They won Newt Gingrich's district that had not gone Democratic since the seventies. They run Eric Cantor's district. And in every one of those cases, they were winning with economically moderate women who are mildly socially liberal. Because that's, those are affluent areas where that message worked. And so the whole point to a midterm election is if you're the out party, you get to be flexible and there is no formula.

• 12:16Speaker 03

  And I think what happens is I think a lot of, there are a lot of Democratic strategists who don't just want to win, but they want to win a certain way. And they start with, we need an economically progressive message. How do we do that? Well, normally economically progressive messages are quite hazardous and even toxic. But maybe if you find someone with plaid shirts and tattoos, then you can sell an economically progressive message. But I think like, who's pushing this? Is this truly an analysis of where your district is? Or is this something you want to do anyway? And you're looking for a way to get it done. And I don't, look, people have come into politics because they have views. I don't criticize that. But you should always be, when you're talking to consumers of information. Be clear in your own mind and be clear to them, what is advocacy and what is analysis?

• 12:59Speaker 03

  And the analysis is different things work in different places. And there are a lot of places that are going to be on the map in 2026, where economically moderate and socially moderate is going to be the formula. And where the attempt to have one more go at the Bernie Sanders campaign is going to not work.

• 13:14Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, that's, I mean, I've kind of felt he, I have a bit of a, it's like a 10 year bone to pick with Bernie Sanders, basically. And I feel like he gets a free pass for a lot of the things that he advocates for. And also in the age discussion, and we're going to talk about Graham Platner and Janet Mills towards the end of the show. But yes, Bernie Sanders politics obviously don't work everywhere. But as someone who works in conservative media, I know how important it is that you have the branding right for the party. So yes, everybody goes out and they run their races. And the people who are running races that don't fit the stereotype of AOC or Bernie Sanders, they get ignored by the right, like no one wants to talk about Pat Ryan. Right? That's very boring.

• 13:57Jessica Tarlov?

  They want to talk about Bernie and AOC and Graham Platner. Yeah. So I'm thinking of this from a communication standpoint, as well as the practical, kind of on the ground of how you're doing it. And that's why I think I was drawn to this idea of really emphasizing how much you can have a through fair argument about, you know, pushing back on the quote unquote oligarchy, if you want to use Bernie's terms about it, but making sure that you are not as socially liberal as Democrats have been in the past.

• 14:22Speaker 03

  Yeah, well, you definitely, look, if socially, what does socially liberal mean? The Democratic weak points are crime, immigration, and to a lesser degree, trans. And those are not messaging problems because being soft on crime in particular, it was the great unifying message of the Democratic Party from 2014. The carceral state, defund the police was maybe on the extreme edge, but there are lots of people wanted to release people out of prisons. And indeed, there were something like, I now forget the exact number of reductions in the number of persons held in prisons, but it was measured with six digits, not five. So that was, that was a real problem because crime, I remember writing about this for the Atlantic in 2014, saying Democrats are making a huge gamble here. And look, 2014 is one of the low points in crime in the United States. There's nothing wrong with making a little experiment.

• 15:07Speaker 03

  What if you reduce incarceration a little? But you don't, on a gamble and a hunch and a whim, reduce it massively all at once, because then you're going to get a crime wave, as indeed followed, partly because of the pandemic, but continuing after. But one more thing that needs to be said about the Bernie Sanders problem. Look, Democrats are the party of the state. They're the party of government. There are things they want to do. And if they are the party of government, you have to elect people who know what they're talking about. Now, if you're the party of the anti-state, then it doesn't matter. Then you can elect all kinds of Ron Johnson types who don't know how anything works. Because you're not trying to make something work. But if you're trying to make things work, you need politicians who understand how things work. You need responsible people. And I think there's a lot of chafing that Democrats look at Republicans and have envy and say,

• 15:52Speaker 03

  well, why can't we have our own Ron Johnson? Like, why can't we have one of those fools? Well, you could if you didn't want to run the state. But since you do, you'd better get someone who knows how things work. And that's the problem with the oligarchy message. There's nothing wrong with saying, if you're, and I'm not a social Democrat, but I'm not a liberal. But if you were, you know, we want to have a more redistributive, nothing wrong with that. How would it work? And you know what? It's not going to work through class war and antagonism. It's going to work through mechanics of bureaucracy and government. And you'd better understand them and better understand what the trade-offs are and what kind of revenue measures work and what kind are going to be counterproductive. You need a real concern for the mechanics of government if you're going to be a Democrat.

• 16:34Jessica Tarlov?

  Well, that doesn't fit on a bumper sticker. And that's something that we struggle with constantly. You know, you ask a Democrat, you know, even up to the leadership of the party, like Takiim Jeffries, you know, what are the slogans? And he's like, you know, speaks for 20 minutes or something. And you say, no, it has to go on a bumper sticker, right? Like, no tax on tips, build a wall. And Ruben Gallego, in particular, I'm on a Ruben Gallego trip right now. So be warned for the rest of the podcast. But he was talking about how damaging equity or the concept of economic equity has been to the party and that people don't hate the rich. They want to be rich themselves or they at least want to be able to buy a home and a big effing truck. That was his messaging. And I was like, we could run on,

• 17:18Jessica Tarlov?

  let's get a big effing truck, I think, for sure.

• 17:21Speaker 03

  Yeah. I mean, look, everyone runs on the same slogan in every election. More for you. That's everybody's slogan. And then the question is, what is more and who's you? And that's where the footnotes come in. And then the question is, well, why haven't you got more? And the different parties have different explanations. But it's just, look, the Republicans have a structural problem, which is Americans care a lot about healthcare. And what does a Republican answer on healthcare? Less for you.

• 17:46Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah.

• 17:46Speaker 03

  So the Democratic fate is they are the party of governance. And that means they have less room to nominate people who don't care about governance.

• 17:55Jessica Tarlov?

  We do. We need to do some change, I think, in that reputation. But overall, you're right, which is a pretty consistent theme with you. And we're going to take a quick break, and then we're going to talk about wars in the Caribbean.

• 18:11Scott Galloway?

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• 20:21Scott Galloway?

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• 21:29Jessica Tarlov?

  Welcome back. Trump says he's taking the fight to, quote, "narcoterrorists ordering US forces to blow up suspected drug boats in the Caribbean." But officials on the ground, including in Venezuela and Colombia, say those vessels aren't carrying fentanyl to the US at all. They're moving cocaine and marijuana bound for Europe and Africa, which, you know, better than fentanyl, but still drug trafficking. Now, after a Colombian fisherman was killed in one of those strikes that followed a spiraling, Colombia's president is accusing the US of murder, Trump's cutting aid and threatening tariffs, which he loves to do. And even some inside the Pentagon are questioning whether this campaign is really about drugs or regime change. What are your top-line thoughts on what's been going on over these, you know, last several weeks? We have 32 dead now in seven strikes, I think was the latest count.

• 22:14Speaker 03

  I've been obsessing with over these subjects for a while, dating back to the Biden administration. Because one of the things that happened during Biden was a lot of Republicans rallied around the idea that the United States needed to conduct strikes inside Mexican territory. That's where the fentanyl comes from. And Ron DeSantis, when he was running for president, talked about having a kind of naval blockade of the Mexican Pacific coast, potentially intercepting Chinese vessels carrying precursors. J.D. Vance endorsed rocket strikes. And these are Dan Crenshaw, who is, in a different world, would be a very important Republican leader, who is by no means a hothead or not a very intelligent person. He endorsed the idea of strikes on Mexican territory. Now, this is not a war on the Mexican state, but this would be war on Mexican territory with or without Mexican permission, a very dangerous situation.

• 23:00Speaker 03

  Trump was always less hot-headed on strikes inside Mexico than some of his other people were. And once president, he's backed away. And I think the Venezuela campaign is a way to give the people who wanted strikes inside Mexico something, but something less dangerous than strikes inside Mexico. It's on the high seas, it's not on Mexican territory, you know, these are controlled incidents. But it is, again, even though it's less dramatic and dangerous than what they wanted to do inside Mexico, it still has dangerous implications. And the story about Colombia is an example of this. So Trump can't even spell the country Colombia correctly. He spells it like the university.

• 23:34Jessica Tarlov?

  That is confusing, though, when you've gone after the university so much, right?

• 23:39Speaker 03

  Yeah, maybe it's like spell check, but...

• 23:41Jessica Tarlov?

  I don't think Truth Social has spell check. Sorry. Now, carry on with your very smart point.

• 23:46Speaker 03

  No, the United States has a very important relationship with Colombia, dating back to the Clinton years. Colombia was a major source of cocaine to the United States. Crack cocaine was a big killer. And Presidents Clinton, President Bush, President Obama had a series of programs to facilitate security cooperation with Colombia. They became a very, very important partner. And the Colombians paid a heavy blood price to clean up their act. And as part of the price, the United States helped Colombia to redirect its economy away from cocaine. If you go to the supermarket and buy cut flowers, those are probably from Colombia. And cut flowers need to move with incredible speed. They perish rapidly, everyone knows that. And so Bush negotiated and President Obama signed a free trade agreement with Colombia. That's one of the last free trade agreements the United States entered into before the era

• 24:31Speaker 03

  of protectionism began. So this is an important relationship. Now, the current president of Colombia is kind of a... Loudmouth, and he's quite unpopular and he's at the end of his term. So he's someone, the relationship proceeds around him. He's so he can be kind of an isolated figure and he's very on the far left side of Colombian politics and Colombia tends to tilt toward the more conservative side. Um, he's, he was the first, Petro was the first lefting president in like 35 years. But when he says the Americans killed a fishing boat, if that's not true, that would be a very big lie for him to tell because the United States could easily refute it. And there are a lot of people inside the Colombian political system who'd want to make him pay a price for making the relationship with the United States even worse than it is. So without having a lot of confidence in Petro, I'm going to guess that that was not a lie.

• 25:14Speaker 03

  And if it's not a lie, then you really have to think, well, what about the next strike? This is not as hermetic. And although all the strikes are illegal, if you actually are killing narcos, probably the American political system won't give you too hard a time about it. It's illegal, but these are people who deserve something. But if you're actually killing fishermen and it looks like the United States is, that's, that's a moral reckoning.

• 25:36Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, well, there's also the story, there's a name attached for the first time to a person who's a, from Trinidad and Tobago, who has disappeared, that his family is claiming was swept up in this, someone who is also not a drug trafficker. And then we have repatriated two Venezuelans that survived

• 25:54Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 25:54Jessica Tarlov?

  these attacks instead of trying them, which would indicate that we didn't have the goods to be doing this in the first place. And you already mentioned that this would be illegal, but if you get a narco trafficker, probably people will turn, you know, blind eye to it. And I think Rand Paul has been doing a very good job out there advocating as much as he can for the fact that, you know, there are procedures you're supposed to go through when you do this, especially if it's not just a one-off, right? This has been 32 people dead, seven strikes thus far, and Trump has been asking for authorization if, if he wants to go into Venezuelan land, which obviously has big implications. And the Mexican connection is very interesting there. Do you think, you know, I guess looping back to what we were saying about the authoritarian

• 26:38Jessica Tarlov?

  tendencies of this administration.

• 26:40Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 26:40Jessica Tarlov?

  One of the biggest ways that they've been doing that is subverting the role of Congress, right? I mean, we basically have a unitary state, right? Is that what you would say? Where the executive is all that matters and, you know, there are a lot of Members of Congress that are hot and bothered about this, you know Congressman Adam Smith, Jim Himes, et cetera, but so far on the Republican side have only really been hearing Rand Paul screaming about it because you're supposed to be able to get authorization, especially if you think that the administration has something like regime change on the mind. Do you think that they have that on the mind? And do you think there's any chance that there is some sort of discussion within Congress about what's going on?

• 27:19Speaker 03

  Yeah. Well, I don't think President Trump tends to have plans the way other kind of people have plans.

• 27:24Jessica Tarlov?

  Concepts of plans?

• 27:25Speaker 03

  He has kind of instincts that, think of him as like an ooze that oozes wherever it is not met with a blockage. He's got various kinds of authoritarian and corrupt and sinister projects, sometimes just ego, sometimes making improper money. And he's just looking for where's a place where I'm not going to get a check. And killing drug dealers is a place where he won't receive too much of a check. But there are only so many things you can do in the realm of counter drug. You can control demand, and that means punishing Americans, which is always unpopular. You can control supply, and that means getting involved with foreign countries in various ways, and that's difficult. Or you can say, we'll control neither supply nor demand, and we'll have some kind of legalization, and then you get a lot of victims inside the United States.

• 28:10Speaker 03

  So it's a triangle, there are only three choices. Controlling supply, the United States has been working with that project since the 1970s. And the basic problem is violence doesn't work. If you want to control supply, you need a, as happened in Colombia, you need to create new opportunities for people who are involved in the drug trade, not all of whom want to be criminals, to grow cut flowers instead of growing cocoa. And it turns out cut flowers were more profitable. They were often like serfs to the drug lords. Cut flowers were a more profitable business, but you had to protect them because the former serf holders would say, well, we'll kill you if you grow the cut flowers. So you needed to protect them. But the idea that you're going to say, okay, the way we're going to stop drugs from flowing into the country is every time we see a $40,000 powerboat with crew who are making a couple

• 28:54Speaker 03

  of dollars a day, carrying a load of cocaine that costs dozens of dollars to manufacture, whatever its street value, and we're going to send naval vessels and jet fighters, and we're going to blow them up with a missile that probably costs more than the entire project of the boat, just the missile. That's a losing. Project, I'm reminded very much of one of the great stories from the world of drug lore that Daniel Patrick Moynihan told in his memoirs. It's 1971 and the United States has just made the largest heroin bust in the history of the world to that point. This is the bust that was the origin of the movie The French Connection, if you've seen that.

• 29:25Jessica Tarlov?

  Oh, yeah.

• 29:25Speaker 03

  Okay. Five million dollars in 1970, Dr. Evil, 1970, five million dollars.

• 29:31Jessica Tarlov?

  Inflation has been wild.

• 29:32Speaker 03

  So, at the time that this happens, Daniel Patrick Moynihan is the drug czar, the man in the White House with drug control responsibility. He's enormously excited and he's so excited that he summons up a helicopter to go to Camp David to meet President Nixon and tell him that they have intercepted five million dollars of the heroin. And as he gets on the helicopter, who is also on the helicopter? George Shultz, who was then Secretary of Labor, one of the great, great figures in American government over the 70s and 80s. And Shultz has got the big helicopter headphones on, he's reading the Wall Street Journal and he greets Moynihan. Moynihan is burbling with incitement and he says, George, I have to tell you what I'm going to tell the President about, we just had the biggest drug bust in the history of the world, five million dollars. Shultz looks up from the Wall Street Journal and says, good, congratulations.

• 30:16Speaker 03

  Not interested. Moynihan is a little hurt. George, you don't understand, this is the biggest drug bust in the history of the world, five million dollars. Good, congratulations. And then Moynihan thinks, and then he remembered, George Shultz used to teach economics at the University of Chicago. So, George, I imagine you think that so long as there's a demand for drugs inside the United States, there will be a supply. At which point George Shultz folds down the journal, interested for the first time, and says, Dan, there may be hope for you after all.

• 30:46Jessica Tarlov?

  That's a great story.

• 30:50Speaker 03

  So, blow up the boats, it's going to accomplish nothing. You're serious about this? You have to re-dedicate yourself to Plan Columbia. You have to give people opportunities in the producing countries that are better than drug making. You have to protect them. You have to work with local authorities. You have to do foreign policy. You can't just do Hegseth policy, just let's blow up something and see what happens.

• 31:10Jessica Tarlov?

  Well, the administration is not big fans of doing foreign policy that way. And we saw that the head of Southern Command, General Alvin Holsi, resigned. He was only a year into the job and there's reporting that he was pushing back against whatever this plan is and that Pete Haxton didn't like it very much.

• 31:28Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 31:29Jessica Tarlov?

  Do you think there will be more pushback from within the rank and file? And ultimately, does anything come of this back and forth with Colombia and whatever tariffs they're going to levy and the aid that they're going to cut off?

• 31:42Speaker 03

  Yeah. I think with Colombia, so Petro's out of office early next year. The right will return to power in Colombia and I think probably the situation will get easier. I think a lot of people, that there will be pressure in Congress against the Colombia terrorists because they will recall that the reason there's a free trade agreement with Colombia is to keep Colombia out of the cocaine business. And if you blow up the free trade agreement, you kill, cut flowers, I forget how many minutes you've got to move them from place to place.

• 32:09Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah.

• 32:10Speaker 03

  But you don't have much time. And if you put a lot of barriers on cut, you can kill the cut flower industry as fast almost as you kill the cut flowers themselves. And then what do the farmers grow? You know, there's a pretty obvious replacement crop and there are people who are, and the remains of the drug industry and the left wing insurgency inside Colombia are still there, ready to come back to life. My guess is they'll blow up some warboats. Eventually, there'll be an undeniably innocent person. It'll be a scandal. And then at that point, it will also be undeniable that this whole project is a failure because you cannot blow up your way to a drug introduction. It's not going, it's just not, as George Shultz would say, the problem is the demand inside the United States. It will summon forth supply from somewhere. And I think the thing will probably tend to fizzle out.

• 32:53Jessica Tarlov?

  Okay. I hope that you're right. That's less scary than, you know, that we're suddenly doing regime change and.

• 33:01Jessica Tarlov?

  God knows where that, I can't even imagine what that looks like with our White House.

• 33:05Speaker 03

  Well, um, yeah, Colombia and Venezuela have been scenes of guerrilla war going back to the early 19th century. Um, it's just, it's not a good place for, certainly not a foreign power to try to impose control on the country by controlling the capital city.

• 33:20Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah. Well, they also, I mean, at least in the case of Venezuela, are so natural resource rich that it's a very different estimation than it seems like based on the actions or what they're purporting the actions are about. And Petro said that as well, which I'm sure pissed the administration off too. That he was, just said this is about oil, right? This isn't, and gold, I think he mentioned. Um, okay. We're going to take a quick break. Stay with us.

• 33:47Speaker 00

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• 35:21Jessica Tarlov?

  Welcome back. And before we go, we already talked about Graham Platner a little, but we're going to do more plaid and tattoos. Maine Senate race just turned into a headache for Democrats. Graham Platner, the Bernie-backed oyster farmer, once seen as the party's next working-class hope, is apologizing for years of offensive Reddit posts about race, police, sexual assault. Platner blames the comments on post-war trauma and say that he's changed. She also did take responsibility, which I am always appreciative of, and talked about his PTSD, too. But the scandals dividing Democrats, progressives defending him as authentic, party leaders backing Governor Janet Mills as the safer choice. I interviewed Janet Mills last week. She was definitely on message, talking about, you know, I'm the tested candidate,

• 36:04Jessica Tarlov?

  and the seat is winnable if you have someone opposing Susan Collins, who actually has a record to run on. You already previewed your thoughts, but what are you thinking about the race?

• 36:16Speaker 03

  So let me say something about people who take responsibility. I would have so much more respect for you. If what happened, if someone like this, in their announcement speech, said, "Now, I have to tell my followers something, which is when I came back from war, I was very disturbed. And I put a lot of things on the record that I'm not proud of. And I'm sure my opponents will eventually find them. You know what? Here they are. Here they are. Let me disclose to you what I said. And let me tell you why I've changed my mind about this." If you take responsibility after someone else finds you out, I don't think you took responsibility. Accountability begins with you being the first to say, and by the way, you owe this to your backers, to say to them, you know, here are my vulnerabilities. I'm not trying to steal a yard here. You know, one of the things that made Barack Obama so

• 36:57Speaker 03

  invulnerable, as a new candidate with an exotic name, was he'd written this big autobiography. You want to find a bad story about Obama? It's in the book he wrote.

• 37:06Jessica Tarlov?

  It's in the table of contents. You can look up, like, drug use, anti-American sentiment. Yeah.

• 37:12Speaker 03

  All there. And he works it through. So it's lost its power. Because he said, "This is who I was. This is not who I am. This is who I was. This is why I was. This is why I changed." Okay. And you told us. So I guess the change of heart is sincere. So that's my question. If you've got these things on the record, and you want to be forgiven after they come out, you have to tell people. And you especially owe that to your supporters, not just as an act of strategy, but as an act of moral authenticity. That's moral authenticity. If you're sorry after you're caught, that's not authentic.

• 37:44Jessica Tarlov?

  I mean, for some benefit of the doubt, I think, you know, Graham Platner, I think we're the same age, so we're both 41. I am less terminally online than majority of my peers. But certainly, you know, I don't know, I doubt I could run for office based on whatever old tweets or something, not like racist, anti-police stuff. Actually, that's not true. I could run for office. Maybe I will. But

• 38:08Speaker 03

  You should.

• 38:08Jessica Tarlov?

  You know, there's this discussion now about what it means to be a millennial or a Gen Z candidate, and that they are going to come with a lot more baggage than a Barack Obama who had even, you know, written a lot of this stuff in his book does, and that people are a lot more forgiving of things that they find offensive or that all of society finds offensive. I mean, we've elected Donald Trump twice, right? And his stuff is on tape. For someone who doesn't use a phone, or I guess he does now, but, you know, famously didn't use to, you know, ever email or text, like, you know, he's on tape talking, we could still grab her by the, you know what? And I think that young people are so

• 38:52Jessica Tarlov?

  desperate for something different than what the establishment has been feeding them for so long that they are willing to forgive these kinds of things. Now, Janet Mills's campaign feels differently about that, obviously. But what do you make of, you know, what the new era of candidacy looks like with people who have been online their entire lives?

• 39:13Speaker 03

  Look, I think there are people who forgive in a very selective way. So JD Vance forgives you if you say Nazi things. He doesn't forgive you if you say non-Nazi things. He's very harsh. If you say, I don't think Charlie Kirk was all that, then you have your visas yanked and be deported. But if you say Hitler was right and put more people in gas chambers, and you're 42, that that's a youthful indiscretion that is to be forgiven, even if you did it 10 minutes ago. I think, just generally, when George W. Bush, who had kind of a troubled past, alcohol and maybe other things too, when he ran for president, he talked about it. And in his acceptance speech, he talked about it in a very eloquent way. And I had nothing to do with this, so I'm not praising my own work. But he, he talked at one point about his life, and he wasn't specific, but he said, I understand forgiveness because

• 39:57Speaker 03

  I have needed it. That, once you say, I'm not going to go into every sort of detail, but I'm letting everyone know there are things I'm not proud of, I'm not going to be shy about them, and I'm going to acknowledge my remorse. That's a different message than someone unearths it and holds you to account and then you have a story. Have the story first. And not just as a matter of strategy because it's because that's also how we genuinely know. That's how we know you're remorseful is that you you bring it to light yourself.

• 40:23Jessica Tarlov?

  Fair enough. And he obviously not even told even his, you know, highest level advisors about that because there were people who left the campaign once they saw this. And, you know, found it obviously to be incredibly disappointing that he had spoken about that, even if he was in the throes of PTSD.

• 40:40Speaker 03

  You know, one more thing, the people leaving. So if you are someone who in your 20s had substance abuse problems, had rage problems, sexual misconduct, and you've talked to your staffers about it and you truly are a different person, they will die in the last ditch to defend you. They will not quit because they will say, yeah, that was the guy I wouldn't have voted for when we were all 20, but now we're all 40 and this is the guy or woman I would vote for. And they have taken everyone's got something and this person has faced it and taken steps to correct it. I believe in him or her even more than I would if if they were someone who'd never known the temptation to do anything wrong. If people are leaving, it's because you haven't been straight with them. And if you're not straight with your staff, you're not straight with anybody.

• 41:23Jessica Tarlov?

  That makes a lot of sense. And it feels like there's definitely energy shifting away from Platten. We'll see how the next few weeks shake out because he has been, you know, he's raised like $4 million already and has been a big source of excitement across the state. I wanted to get your thoughts on the gerontocracy problem writ large because the Democrats in particular are obviously struggling with this. You know, Janet Mills is 77, Bernie, who's older than she is, is like, you know, it's time for a change. But this is happening all over the country and we did have a few representatives who passed away in office just since Donald Trump came back in. And, you know, there were seats left open where we could have, you know, taken key votes and needed that. So what are your thoughts about when it's time to go?

• 42:07Speaker 03

  I have a rather, I have a rather dark joke about this, which I hesitate to say in a public place.

• 42:11Jessica Tarlov?

  Go for it. This is a Scott Hallaway podcast. Like you, you say all the dark things.

• 42:16Speaker 03

  If I were like a Democratic Senator quizzing a judge for, or certainly a Supreme Court Justice, my first question would be, Mr. Justice, Madam Justice, I have one question for you. Do you smoke? No? Forget it.

• 42:29Speaker 03

  Like if if Ruth Bader Ginsburg had smoked, the whole history of this country would be different.

• 42:34Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah.

• 42:34Speaker 03

  She would have had a distinguished career and and been intensely mentally acute until age sixty eight, sixty nine, seventy. And then to the great sadness of all who loved her and to herself, but.

• 42:45Jessica Tarlov?

  She would have been taken.

• 42:46Speaker 03

  She she would have gone to meet her maker and gone to her just reward and have, but the seat would become vacant at an appropriate time. So I think one of the things that has happened is we've had this extraordinary public health revolution that the baby boom generation and just before have benefited from. And people are not adapted to it. And what also happens, I think this is more true for men than for women. You can go off the cliff quite quickly. You can be a very vigorous and healthy seventy seven and then a very sickly and feeble seventy nine. And so it surprises them. They they go into that last race at age seventy seven feeling, I'm more or less the person I was at sixty seven, maybe, you know. Maybe I need a little bit more rest in the afternoon, but I'm basically the same and then bang, two years later.

• 43:25Speaker 03

  It's gone. Again, I think this is more for men than for women. There's a lot of luck of the draw in how this goes. You know, John McCain savagely beaten, every bone in his body broken, it seems, and yet he was vigorous to the very, very end. Other people don't have that kind of good luck. In general, society is living longer, and so you should expect the politicians probably will age. And there's certain advantages to being there for a while. You build more networks. And, you know, something for voters to think about, but it's not the only factor. And I think some Democrats are over learning the Biden lesson. And not understanding that the reason Biden's age was such a problem was because Biden ran in twenty twenty as the last candidate of the Democratic Center. And he won as the last candidate of the Democratic Center.

• 44:09Speaker 03

  And then when he became president, his age caught up with him and he was too feeble to prevent, to resist the Democratic left. And so he ran a much more left wing administration than he had promised both his party and the country that he would deliver in twenty twenty. In twenty twenty, he promised normal. And what you got in twenty twenty one was basically a Warren Buttigieg administration. And that's not what Biden had promised. That's not what he thought he would deliver. And I think if Biden had been more vigorous, that's not what would have happened.

• 44:36Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, there certainly could have been more pushback, I think, against the more activist groups or consultants that were pushing things. But, you know, I think even purely on immigration, if he had sounded like the Biden of the election, we would not have had those first three years, which clearly could have been avoided with just the laws on the books, because they were avoided in the last year of the Biden presidency as a source of great frustration.

• 45:01Speaker 03

  And one of the other things that was a big problem was, look, this is probably the single most consequential, most difficult decision Biden faced, was whether to push for schools to reopen in the fall of 2021. And in retrospect, we can see that the right end, that there's a balance of risk here, because, I mean, there really were dangers associated with opening the schools early. Kids may not get sick, but teachers get sick, and kids' parents get sick. You had to, you had to make a really tough moral choice. What is more important here, the future of the next generation, because we know these kids are suffering from not being in school, or genuine risks to older people? How do you balance that? And the Biden administration basically acquiesced, as many of the blue states said, "We're going to let the teachers' unions make this call." And I think that

• 45:43Speaker 03

  is an underestimated fact in why Democrats lost in 2024. And it's an underrated fact in understanding what's happening to American society, because we think about little kids, but there are lots of people on the cusp of dropping out of high school or not in 2021, 2022. And the closure of the schools meant they dropped out of high school, and many of them got into trouble with the law, the spate of carjackings here in Washington. A lot of the people who did that, those were not people who had to be criminals. They were people who were marginal in school. The schools were closed. They went out. Their parents were working. They got into trouble. And they did terrible damage to others, and many of them will be in prison for a long, a long time and never, ever get their foot back on the ladder that they would have kept their feet on had the schools stayed open and they'd been able to finish their degree.

• 46:26Jessica Tarlov?

  Absolutely. I mean, the learning loss is astounding and smart Democrats and some Republicans, but pay more attention, I guess, to the advice the Dems are giving are, you know, working on programs, like tutoring programs to make up for that.

• 46:40Speaker 03

  And I don't want to make this sound like it was an easy call.

• 46:42Jessica Tarlov?

  It definitely wasn't. And there were some Republicans who went along with this as well. But it is the dividing line in society. And I've noticed that, you know, when I'm talking about whatever authoritarian thing Donald Trump is doing, that I get a lot of pushback. Like, well, you're the ones who shut down society. You're the ones who told us that your kids couldn't go to school. And New Jersey, the governor's race for Phil Murphy's second term being within three points, or that we have a Governor Youngkin in Virginia. I think you can draw a straight line between that and what happened with the management of our school systems.

• 47:13Speaker 03

  And you want to know that when the call was made, the President of the United States really thought hard about it and heard advice from all sides and balanced the decision. And of course, look, I have very little sympathy for COVID second guessing. People will say things like, well, the scientists said a different thing in September than they said in May. Yeah, called science. You have a completely new problem. You know what? Month by month, you know more about the problem. So of course, your answers change. I mean, religion doesn't change, but science does. So I have tremendous sympathy for the imperfect information, for the real time pressures, for the balancing of interests, because teachers and parents' lives, those mattered too. But the President of the United States and the system has to be the one to say, you know what? The next generation counts most. And

• 47:58Speaker 03

  if we're going to have, if we're going to impose burdens, we want to have fewer burdens on the rising generation and more burdens on those who've already been able to enjoy more of their lives.

• 48:07Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah. I think also, you know, as a nod to the importance of the transparency of everything, and, you know, I'm a New Yorker. We have the Andrew Cuomo daily press conferences. Having that kind of access or feeling like someone was actually puzzling it out in front of you would have made people feel a lot more secure in those decisions.

• 48:26Speaker 03

  Yep.

• 48:28Jessica Tarlov?

  Huge balance of factors and Randy Weingarten hasn't, actually, I haven't read her new book, but I have not heard that it was a massive mea culpa. So I doubt that that's the case, but she hasn't done that either.

• 48:40Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 48:41Jessica Tarlov?

  You know, come out and, and really said, I, I understand how disappointed parents were in these decisions. I think we could have done X, Y, or Z things differently. We could have built, you know, outdoor tents or recruited a bunch of younger teachers to come in for a couple of years and put our older teachers on Zoom classes and made it more of a hybrid model.

• 49:01Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 49:03Jessica Tarlov?

  Koda, wada, shoda, I guess. I don't know if that's an uplifting note to end on, but it is the note that we are ending on. David Frum, thank you so much for joining me.

• 49:10Speaker 03

  Thank you. And, and I, I wanted to, you, you dropped to him that you were thinking about running for office. Does that sound?

• 49:14Jessica Tarlov?

  Oh, I don't know. I, not really. No, I, maybe it's a, it is a sad reflection on the state of our politics, but I think that you can actually affect more change on the outside than you can on the inside, at least the way that our politics works today.

• 49:29Speaker 03

  Well, I hope, I hope if there are people who are within reach of your voice, they, they will think about it and understand that office doesn't mean, and this sounds something weird, but people say, if I'm not a United States Senator, I'm nothing. That state assembly, state senate, school board, city government, these are all intensely important callings. And I hope people who follow you will, will be inspired by your thoughts to, to take up that burden business. Every job matters.

• 49:53Jessica Tarlov?

  I love that. That is definitely an optimistic note to end on. I hope that you'll come back again. This was such a treat.

• 49:59Speaker 03

  Thank you. So kind of. Thank you.