Dave Collum: Financial Crisis, Diddy, Energy Weapons, QAnon, and the Deep State’s Digital Evolution

There aren’t many Ivy League professors as bold as Dave Collum. It’s amazing he still has a job. (00:00) How Collum Predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis (11:00) Collum’s Mission to Uncover the Truth About Covid (19:36) Government Experiments Being Conducted on Foster Care Children (24:17) What’s the Truth About Diddy? (34:07) What’s the Truth About the Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump? (1:00:45) Are We Being Purposefully Distracted From Things That Actually Matter? (1:12:04) The Real Dangers of AI Dave Collum is a professor of organic chemistry at Cornell University, where he earned his BS in biology and later returned after completing his PhD in chemistry at Columbia. A former department chair and 20-year associate editor of The Journal of Organic Chemistry, Dave has also consulted for major pharmaceutical companies including Merck, Pfizer, and Amgen. Outside of academia, he’s known for his sharp, contrarian takes on politics, economics, and culture—often shared via his unfiltered X account (@DavidBCollum), frequent podcast appearances, and his widely read annual “Year in Review” at Peak Prosperity. He’s also coached collegiate gymnastics and taekwondo and has been featured in outlets like The Wall Street Journal, Rolling Stone, and The Federalist but usually on topics far removed from chemistry. Paid partnerships with: Dutch: Get $50 a year for vet care with Tucker50 at https://dutch.com/tucker Liberty Safe: Visit https://LibertySafe.com to find a dealer and learn more Beam: Get 30% off for a limited time using the code TUCKER at https://ShopBeam.com/Tucker Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:30Tucker Carlson?

  Very few college professors do what college professors are supposed to do, which is kind of break through outside campus into the conversation among smart people about what the world is about. And in other words, they don't, they don't kind of influence the broader culture directly. And you do, and you're an organic chemistry professor. I, how, are you allowed to do this at Cornell? Are you allowed to kind of opine on economics, social policy, foreign policy? Like, what if, what are your administrators saying when you do this?

• 1:11Speaker 02

  Um, I don't know if it's generally true, but Cornell's not giving me any guff. The, the only problem I had with Cornell, and we talked, you know, we had breakfast and we talked a little bit about, I think my colleagues wish I would shut up, but, but they don't tell me to shut up. Although, you know, they've told me to stay on. I have kind of an intellectual Tourette syndrome.

• 1:31Tucker Carlson?

  Stay in your lane.

• 1:32Speaker 02

  Well, I'll be in the middle of class, like in March of, of 07, in the middle of class, no warning. I blurted out the banking system's about to collapse. I had written about it in 02, but I turned, I said, I think it's about to collapse.

• 1:47Tucker Carlson?

  This is an organic chemistry class?

• 1:49Speaker 02

  An organic chemistry class. And they looked at me and I just said, look, I think the entire banking system's going down the tubes now. And it took another year, year and a half to.

• 1:56Tucker Carlson?

  Did they say that's not a related discipline? What are you talking about?

• 1:59Speaker 02

  No, no, no, no one gave me guff for that. What was entertaining about that particular Tourette's like outburst is that I had the same kids. In an honors thesis course, two years later, in the first lecture, one lecture a week, the first lecture, I said, didn't I warn you this is February of 09? So didn't I warn you that that the banking system was going to collapse? I said, they said, yeah, you did. And I said, did your econ professors tell you that? They said, no. And I said, what are those assholes paid for?

• 2:48Speaker 02

  In this thesis course, I used a lot of guest lectures. So my first guest lecturer was the CEO of Morgan Stanley Bank. And he had cut his teeth on mortgage backed securities. And he spent two hours talking about the catastrophe that we were in the middle of in February of 09. And so, yeah, I do occasionally go off the rails, but, but no, no one gives me grief. I got canceled in 2020. The closest you and I, I've been following you for years, but the closest you and I actually came to actually meeting, but we didn't, was in 2020, I got canceled during the height of cancel season, right? Remember how it was happening

• 3:30Speaker 02

  all the time? And the probability of me ending up being interviewed by you was pretty high because it was being, I got canceled, I was written up in the Federalist and places like that. And so

• 3:39Tucker Carlson?

  What were you canceled for?

• 3:41Speaker 02

  Oh, it was a real crime against humanity. I supported the police.

• 3:45Tucker Carlson?

  Oh, okay.

• 3:46Speaker 02

  It was one of those. Remember the guy got knocked over in Buffalo?

• 3:49Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 3:51Speaker 02

  A friend of mine I was doing a podcast with that Saturday, posted that late one night and said, said, I think this is just appalling when the old guy got knocked up by the riot police. And I watched the video a couple of times. I said, well, Chris, his name is Chris Irons. I said,

• 4:09Speaker 02

  We can talk about it on Saturday, but, but, but I have no idea what he was doing there. So this is in a tweet, and I said, um, I said, he was poking riot police with something that looked kind of like a taser or something. Turns out in retrospect, it was a skimmer. And, uh, and, and so I said, it looks like kind of a self inflicted problem to me, right? I didn't say he deserved it or anything like that, but it is self inflicted. If you poke a riot policeman and he knocks you over, right? That, that, that's pretty much, you know, it's a Darwin Award.

• 4:39Tucker Carlson?

  Bears and riot, riot policemen shouldn't be poked.

• 4:42Speaker 02

  Turns out, um, what I learned that night was the cancel culture is not organic. It was, it was incredibly astroturfed. The speed with which it happened was staggering. It was automated. Yeah. Within, within 20 or 30 minutes, um, email boxes all across the administration were filling with complaints. Um, it, it went everywhere. I had to lock down my Twitter feed fast and, and things like that. Um, and, and then Cornell was on sort of a war footing, trying to figure out what to do. Now they're trying to figure out what to do, just because they wanted the fire to be put out, right? So they weren't against

• 5:21Speaker 02

  me in that sense. Um, it was during the lockdown, so, um, I didn't, I didn't actually, uh, I, there was the advantage of everyone was locked down, but I wasn't sure Antifa wouldn't show up. And we know that's not organic either. Right? And so, uh, and so, uh, and so I slept with some loaded guns and I was emotionally ready to blow someone's brains out.

• 5:47Tucker Carlson?

  How many tenure professors in Ivy League schools have guns at home?

• 5:51Speaker 02

  I don't know. Just you? I would not. Well, there's probably more. We have natural resources department and stuff like that. And those guys probably use the resources available. Um, but the, the one mistake Cornell made, they made two mistakes. First of all, um, it turns out the guy was a grifter. The whole thing was faked. And there's, there's video footage of him telling people he's gonna go get knocked down and people yelling at him for doing that. It turns out the blood that came out of his ear, I've talked to physicians, they said it would never come out like that. There's pictures of him on the gurney talking on his cellphone behind the ambulance. The, the press couldn't find him in any of the hospitals. He made a lot of money on GoFundMe. So he,

• 6:33Speaker 02

  he grifted his, while he was supposedly in a coma, his Twitter feed, which had all sorts of fuck the police kind of comments, was being scrubbed very quickly. And, and so, so the turn of the whole thing in retrospect was a grift. So I was dead right. Cornell was on a war fund, trying to figure out how to just stop this. There's graffiti all over the campus and stuff. And so they made two mistakes. One is, at no point did someone from Cornell reach out and say, how are you doing? Right? Cause I got in North Carolina, got canceled, and he killed himself, right? I wasn't gonna kill myself. It was unpleasant. I would admit that.

• 7:09Tucker Carlson?

  How long had you been at Cornell at that point?

• 7:11Speaker 02

  Oh, that would have been 40 years.

• 7:13Tucker Carlson?

  Forty years?

• 7:14Speaker 02

  Right. Plus, four years as an undergrad. So, you know.

• 7:16Tucker Carlson?

  So you spent 44 years at Cornell at that point? So not a newcomer?

• 7:20Speaker 02

  No. And, and by the way, the guy who was the provost at the time was a friend of mine. He, he was, um, he, I knew him from the day he got to Cornell. He's now the president. And it's useful. So when I, when I, when I told, I, I knew I was coming here and I asked a trustee, um, I'm gonna be talking to talkers or anything, and you'd like me to somehow get out there. Not that I'm gonna be there talking, man. But I, it'd be stupid to, to miss it. And I sent a quick email to the president and said, and he gave me a couple bullets, but they were obvious. They were the obvious things. And, um, the second mistake they made is eventually they put together some, and, and the Daily Sun was doing what

• 8:02Speaker 02

  I called the daily column, where, where they'd publish an article out what an asshole I was, right? And they'd write an article about the football team and get the NSA. By the way, did we mention columns and asshole, right? That sort of thing. So, um, So they, they finally wrote a letter denouncing me. And it was signed, interestingly, by the president, who I didn't really like that much, that president, the provost, who's a friend of mine, which was ironic, the chief of police, which was super ironic, and a couple other administrators. Who was missing was one of our deans, the dean of arts and sciences, who didn't sign it. He would have been an obvious signer. And he once said to me, what good is tenure if you don't have free speech? Now, they weren't trying to hurt me.

• 8:47Speaker 02

  They were just trying to put out a fire, and it put it out. So to, in that sense, they did the right thing.

• 8:52Tucker Carlson?

  Do they call and tell you they were going to denounce you before?

• 8:54Speaker 02

  No. And by the way, I know a number of trustees at this point, and they all said they should have just shut up. So that was a mistake. More recently, a guy named Rickman, I think it was, you know, made that statement about it being exhilarated that Israel got attacked, right? And he shouldn't have said that, right? That was stupid. But, but what people don't understand is that universities are a funny combination of free speech and academic freedom. We're supposed to foster speech, and that means dumb speech. That means sometimes hostile speech, right? You know that drill. And, and then the president denounced him, same president, the one I didn't really like, the one who denounced me. And she said, this is only the second time I've denounced something a faculty member has said. And I go, yeah, I was the first.

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• 13:01Tucker Carlson?

  What about the then Provost, now the President, who was your friend who denounced you? Did that affect your friendship?

• 13:07Speaker 02

  No, not a bit. They were just trying to put out a fire and I was ready for the fire to be put out. What helped is several trustees wandered in the President's office and said, don't even think about doing something stupid here. So I had, one day I put out a tweet, talked about how lovely Cornell is. Cornell is a phenomenal institution. So my loyalty to Cornell is tainting my vision, but Cornell is not like the other Ivies. It's not Harvard, it's not Princeton. It is, it's in the middle of this idyllic setting with, we have 200 gorges. The people at Cornell are self-selected. They're the ones who want to live here, right? If there was a college in your neighborhood, it would be filled with people who love the outdoors.

• 13:50Speaker 02

  It would be filled with people who like this way of life, right? Cornell has that. And so, and by the way, it's ranked number one in a critical category. It has more top 10 ranked departments than any school in the country.

• 14:04Speaker 02

  And that's because we have so many different things going on here. So it's a very special place.

• 14:09Tucker Carlson?

  So the letter denouncing you was really just Kabuki? I mean, it was just...

• 14:13Speaker 02

  It was Kabuki, yeah. It was, it was try to just put out the fire and it did. And, and I paid a price. I lost a consulting gig at Pfizer because of it, because I was now a Nazi, you know? And, and...

• 14:28Tucker Carlson?

  Wait, Pfizer didn't stand by you?

• 14:30Speaker 02

  I had consult, I had consult there for 20 years and they were going to Zoom consulting. And Pfizer doesn't need a controversial consultant either. So they just cleared the deck as well. So I don't hold it against, I hold against, what I hold against Pfizer is the vaccine. I don't hold, the guys I consult with at Pfizer were great guys. And Pfizer, they were trying to get their job done right, stuff like that.

• 14:51Tucker Carlson?

  Why do you, as an organic chemist, why do you hold the vaccine against them?

• 14:57Speaker 02

  Because I think it killed a lot of people and they knew it. I read the, so I started writing about COVID right away. You can imagine, right? A scientist. I started networking. I started trying to figure it out. I'm in a group called Doctors for COVID Ethics for four years where we had every major anti-vaxxer on the planet go through this.

• 15:15Tucker Carlson?

  Wait, so you're a consultant to Pfizer. You're a pretty famous, one of the most famous organic chemists in the country. So if you say the Pfizer COVID vax killed a lot of people, it can't be dismissed as crank talk?

• 15:29Speaker 02

  Well, it could be because I'm not a, I'm not a vaccine expert. I'm an organic chemist. So I, I have certain technical skills that probably helped me burrow. And it's the genetics majors undergrad that helps me. I don't use the biochem or the genetics, but it allows me to sort of read stuff and.

• 15:48Tucker Carlson?

  But you think it killed a lot of people?

• 15:50Speaker 02

  Well, the Pfizer papers, which is, which, which, which your papers written about the clinical trials and the VAERS database show huge number of, of problems, right? And, and so our, the doctor for COVID ethics, we had every famous anti-vaxxer. One of the first ones I went to, it was Bobby Kennedy and we had, you, you name it. You name an anti-vaxxer. You name the Malones, the Brian Coles, the Brian Artises, the, you can go on and on and on. They all went through this, this group. And, and we talked about things three or four years became.

• 16:24Tucker Carlson?

  Is anyone keeping track of how many Americans were killed by it?

• 16:28Speaker 02

  Well, it's very hard because first of all, every flu death got absorbed into the COVID stats. So flu disappeared, which can't be true. And if it did, because we were locked down, then how'd we all get COVID, right? So there's now studies coming out from other countries because we have too many, too many people who, who will look very bad when this data comes out. But the Japanese, for example, have come out and said some very strong things about what didn't happen. The head of the Japanese medical system, I think, came out and said that you could correlate the, the number of deaths with the number of shots, right? And, and so that it's now that the gag order's been released, um, scientific.

• 17:11Speaker 02

  Studies are making it into the literature and there's already thousands.

• 17:15Tucker Carlson?

  It's got to be one of the great manmade disasters of our lifetimes.

• 17:18Speaker 02

  The lockdown too. I think you mentioned, or someone did in one of your podcasts about the travesty, maybe it was Walter, about the travesty of locking down. You show me, you tell me how old a kid is and I can tell you what subjects he does not, or she does not know. So if you were studying trigonometry, the year that everything was locked down, you don't know trigonometry at all. We pretended to teach them, they pretended to learn, nothing happened.

• 17:50Tucker Carlson?

  And do you see that now?

• 17:52Speaker 02

  Well, you can see it going through the system. So for example, our first year grads who were taking organic chemistry went during lockdown, when they showed up, they were very weak in organic chemistry. Yeah, you can see it. So think of the poor kid who's five years old, trying to learn how to read and write and everything's through a mask, right? That, that, that, and there's imprinting periods, right? There's periods where you learn to read and write, or you're kind of in trouble. And so we, it was disastrous. It was absurd. And the whole thing was done by Fauci.

• 18:23Tucker Carlson?

  But how could?

• 18:24Speaker 02

  And our Zoom group, by the way, had, had Scott Alice. And so I asked Scott, I said, Scott, was it malicious? Fauci and Burks did what they do is malicious? And I think it was. I mean, I think there's evil forces behind those two, but he took a different tactic. He said, you cannot fathom how stupid those two are. That was his answer. He said, Fauci never gave a scientific argument, never. And he said, one day, this is astonishing. He said, one day, this is all recorded. So I'm not, you know, talking behind his back. This is, there is a recording on the internet with this. He says, one day he walks in with a scientific paper that Alice had read. And so he's thinking, whoa, Fauci is actually

• 19:07Speaker 02

  going to say something scientific. Fauci went to say encephalomyelitis. Now, if you work at the 7-Eleven, you might stumble on that one. But if you're head of the entire health organization, you shouldn't. And he said he botched it so bad, it was unintelligible. And Atlas said, come again? What'd you just say? And Fauci wouldn't repeat it. He said Burks was yanking shit off the internet, making pie charts, having not a clue what it meant. Not a clue.

• 19:37Tucker Carlson?

  That's terrifying.

• 19:38Speaker 02

  Now, here's a Chris from Atlas, though. He didn't speak up, I don't think.

• 19:43Tucker Carlson?

  Fauci?

• 19:44Speaker 02

  Atlas. I think he sat there.

• 19:48Tucker Carlson?

  Can I ask you to back up just a moment, though? So you're describing now incompetence, but you alluded earlier to malice. What do you think the dark forces behind Burks and Fauci were?

• 19:57Speaker 02

  Well, I think they, first of all, they love the fact we're talking about whether it came out of a lab in Wuhan, because that way we're debating whether to blame the Chinese or not, right? When in fact, I think it came out of a lab, probably in North Carolina. A number of guys have tracked both the disease and, and the vaccine back years before it showed up on our dinner plate. I think low level of malice would be-

• 20:28Tucker Carlson?

  Wait, you think it came out of a lab in North Carolina?

• 20:31Speaker 02

  Yeah, Ralph Baric. Yeah, he, you can follow, a guy named David Martin has followed the patent trail. And, and, and artificial organism can be patented, not a, a natural one.

• 20:45Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 20:45Speaker 02

  And this, you can follow the patent trail on COVID. And, and, and you can follow vaccine patent trail. And it gets, why'd you get moved around? Move from point A to point B?

• 20:55Tucker Carlson?

  If it was created in North Carolina, how did it get to Wuhan? And what was that?

• 21:00Speaker 02

  Because we were funding, we were funding research in Wuhan because we were not allowed to do game of, game of, sorry, I keep tapping the table.

• 21:08Tucker Carlson?

  It's all right. This is a topic that deserves some table tapping.

• 21:11Speaker 02

  Well, I, I've done podcasts where I have headphones and I have four boss, three Boston Terriers, soon four, and they snore. I can't hear them because my headphones are noise dampening. And then I listen to the podcast, you hear this humongous amount of snoring behind me. So I, I'm aware of background noise.

• 21:28Tucker Carlson?

  You didn't bring the terriers this morning?

• 21:29Speaker 02

  I didn't bring the terriers, no.

• 21:31Tucker Carlson?

  So, but you- I just want to flesh this out a bit. You think it was created or begun in North Carolina, then brought to Wuhan for?

• 21:42Speaker 02

  To be elaborated, to be studied, to be. So I think we took everything offshore because it got, uh, gain of function got banned in the US. I, but I don't think we banned it. There were something like 36 bio, bioweapons labs in Ukraine.

• 21:57Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 21:57Speaker 02

  Of US origin.

• 21:59Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 22:00Speaker 02

  So why is Ukraine perfect? Ukraine's perfect. To run a bioweapons lab, you need first world, um, infrastructure.

• 22:07Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 22:08Speaker 02

  And third world people to test shit on. Ukraine's pretty much got that, right? Cause Fauci, for example, in, in the United States, when he had to do clinical trials, when one of his lower rank, they'd go to, they'd go to foster care. They would do clinical trials on foster children.

• 22:29Tucker Carlson?

  What?

• 22:29Speaker 02

  Yeah. You gotta read Kennedy's book. Yeah. He did, he did an estimate, he, they use an estimated 13, 14,000 foster kids to do clinical trials. They said the kids would figure out they're getting sick and they wouldn't want to take the meds.

• 22:45Tucker Carlson?

  That's so, that's like Nazi.

• 22:47Speaker 02

  So I think Fauci's been, been doing damage to people and killing people for many, many years. Yeah.

• 22:52Tucker Carlson?

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• 24:59Tucker Carlson?

  Be safe. But to do clinical trials on foster kids, I thought after the Second World War, when both the Japanese and the Germans were doing things like that.

• 25:07Speaker 02

  Nuremberg Code?

• 25:08Tucker Carlson?

  Well, exactly. It was codified there, but for scientists, but for the rest of the world, and certainly American culture, we were taught that.

• 25:19Tucker Carlson?

  Testing potentially dangerous drugs on people without their full consent, or on the weakest among us, or euthanizing mental patients, or whatever, all that was bad.

• 25:27Speaker 02

  Right.

• 25:28Tucker Carlson?

  I thought that was one of the big lessons of the Second World War.

• 25:31Speaker 02

  Well, as we both know, there are no rules.

• 25:36Tucker Carlson?

  Well, that's, boy, is that the truth.

• 25:37Speaker 02

  There are no rules, right? There are none. There are rules for us, you and me, but there are subjects for which people could be thrown in prison.

• 25:51Speaker 02

  You know, a great example would be Diddy.

• 25:55Speaker 02

  So what happened with Diddy? I think what happened with Diddy is Diddy had a bunch of very incriminating tapes. I think Epstein light. And, and I think they arrested him to round it all up, all the data. I think they did it to get all the data away from Diddy because he was being sued in civil court.

• 26:16Speaker 02

  And the guilty party said, we got to get it out of there before the civil court gets it. And so they arrested him. What'd they just convict him of? Nothing.

• 26:26Speaker 02

  They could have put him away for 20 years based on what he did to Justin Bieber.

• 26:31Speaker 02

  Right? They didn't even get him on any of that. So it's a classic, it's a classic case. I know I sound like a nutcase, but you've had a lot of nutcases on your show.

• 26:41Tucker Carlson?

  I had a guy.

• 26:41Speaker 02

  My brother is trying to dial me back. His day, they're going to think you're a nutcase if you talk about all the things you think about. And I go, well, I think that ship has sailed. You know, as I said to.

• 26:50Tucker Carlson?

  Well, I thought that was the whole point of academic research was that, you know, the predicate for it, the basis of it is free thinking.

• 26:58Speaker 02

  Well, but according to Douglas Murray, I'm not supposed to talk about it unless I'm an expert.

• 27:03Tucker Carlson?

  Well, you are a demonstrable expert in your area. I mean.

• 27:07Speaker 02

  Which is not Diddy.

• 27:09Tucker Carlson?

  It's not Diddy. You're not a tenured professor of Diddy studies at Cornell?

• 27:14Speaker 02

  We could have it, you know, we have subjects and.

• 27:18Tucker Carlson?

  So you think the point of arresting Diddy was to shut down inquiry into what Diddy was doing?

• 27:25Speaker 02

  Get the data, right?

• 27:26Tucker Carlson?

  Well, that's clearly the point of the first Jeffrey Epstein arrest.

• 27:30Speaker 02

  Hunter Biden's laptop.

• 27:31Tucker Carlson?

  Tell me your view of Hunter Biden's laptop.

• 27:33Speaker 02

  Well, Sidney.

• 27:36Speaker 02

  What's her name? Lawyer? Come on. Sidney Powell.

• 27:39Tucker Carlson?

  Yep.

• 27:40Speaker 02

  Elite lawyer, now down a few notches because she worked for Trump and that always gets you in trouble.

• 27:46Tucker Carlson?

  Yep.

• 27:46Speaker 02

  Said that if, if, if Hunter Biden's laptop were ever released, no, if Anthony Weiner's laptop were ever released, the government would fall. Weiner's laptop had kill switches in it. I mean, it was filled with crap that wasn't supposed to be there. We never get to see it. Supposedly nine cops watched the videos on Weiner's laptop. They had to keep leaving the room because they couldn't stand what they were seeing. And all nine are now dead. And there's names and faces and deadness, right? They're, they're real people. Now you can say, well, maybe they died for other reasons. I go, but it's still nine cops.

• 28:30Speaker 02

  And, you know, it's like the five cops who died after January 6, right? The four of them were suicides. Out of, according to AI, there were about 80 cops really in the thick of things. Four of them died from suicide. I don't need any more information to wonder what the hell is going on there. That's one of those standalone observations where I go, that's not right. The math of that doesn't work for me.

• 28:57Speaker 02

  I've got pictures of Ukrainian, see, I'm going off topic. I've got pictures of you known Ukrainian operatives with, with, you're not going to believe this, with the QAnon Shaman guy. They have the horns in January 6, at January 6. What is that all about? I've got videos of-

• 29:14Tucker Carlson?

  That seems totally normal.

• 29:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, totally. I've got videos-

• 29:17Tucker Carlson?

  With the National Guard 100 yards away, not doing anything?

• 29:19Speaker 02

  I've got videos of John Sullivan, right? The guy who was supposedly Antifa, but Antifa said, no, he's a fed. Don't talk to him. Who then filmed Ashley Babbitt getting shot. This guy's getting around. What, what's your image of an Antifa person? Lost soul, tattoos everywhere, right?

• 29:40Speaker 02

  No meaning in life, right?

• 29:42Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, and no, no path forward, really.

• 29:44Speaker 02

  No path forward, yeah, yeah, yeah. If they're real, that is, if they're legitimate.

• 29:49Tucker Carlson?

  But I mean, if you look at the mugshots of Antifa arrest or the people who came to my house, the Antifa there, I mean, these are, you know, obviously I disagree, they threatened my family, I don't like them and all that. But you also feel like these are like one step above homeless, like these are

• 30:03Speaker 02

  Right.

• 30:03Tucker Carlson?

  losers.

• 30:04Speaker 02

  Right. And, uh, and, um, so if he's Antifa, it's really odd that he was a nationally ranked cyclist.

• 30:16Tucker Carlson?

  Are you serious?

• 30:17Speaker 02

  What I know about nationally ranked anythings is their lives have purpose. Now, there's a mugshot, you follow this Patriot Front story? I'm really, this, this is now the helmet's on, the leash to the jungle gym is on. The Patriot Front guys, those guys who'd stop around looking like neo Nazis who also were buff and had no pot bellies and covered their faces and get arrested and they're handcuffed with their backpacks still on and their, their, their megaphone's still over their shoulders and, and, and, and then I saw mugshots of them. Not a single tattoo.

• 30:50Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 30:51Speaker 02

  No tattoos, these are neo Nazis, not a single tattoo.

• 30:56Tucker Carlson?

  They didn't have like Waffen SS lightning bolts on their cheeks?

• 30:59Speaker 02

  No, swastikas, you know? Right, so, so, so we are in this big Walter Kornish, we're in this made for the internet plot. Walter is great in his description of the, I've been tracking the Manjoni story. It's not the right story, there's something wrong and I, Walter laid it out. Now, what Walter didn't say is who's behind him.

• 31:28Tucker Carlson?

  That's obviously the question. I mean, you can look at all of these different stories, particularly the acts of violence, which are because they are acts of violence are, you know, examined much more closely than any other kind of act. Um, and it like doesn't, it doesn't make any sense. I mean, the, the shooting of Trump a year ago in Butler, Pennsylvania is

• 31:46Speaker 02

  Oh, I wrote about that too. Everything, do you know what I just read the other day? The guy who shot Thomas Crooks, right? There were bullets flying all over that place. But it was a catastrophically poorly set up defense of Trump.

• 32:03Speaker 02

  But the guy who shot Thomas Crooks was the same guy who organized the protection of Trump. And they say, oh, you know, he didn't get convicted of anything and other guys didn't. I go, well, so the guy who was in charge of making sure that after the assassination was done, he popped the assassin is somehow not getting prosecuted. Why am I not shocked?

• 32:24Tucker Carlson?

  So you're saying he was the Jack Ruby figure here?

• 32:28Speaker 02

  He was the Jack Ruby figure, yes. So, so what was odd about that story? Well, first of all, all the news agencies were there. This was a totally irrelevant rally in the, in the relevant place, Butler, Pennsylvania. And there's a stranger story there. And again, I just pick up these shards and sometimes they fit together into a story. And sometimes it's just put it in your head, keep it there until you get more detail. There's a guy sitting behind Trump. Name Joseph Fusca? Fusca is his last name. I've seen him before many times.

• 33:09Speaker 02

  He was by the QAnon guys, which are a bunch of whack jobs. Said to be, you're not gonna believe it, said to be John F. Kennedy Jr. Waiting to come back and save the world. And I'm going, oh, you guys have lost your minds finally. You've really gone. It doesn't matter that that's a total crock. Fusca is this guy, and they say now his name is Fusca and whatever, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But, but he's one of supposedly Jeff K. Jr. In disguise. Fusca was there, sitting right behind Trump. I go of all the rallies, there he is.

• 33:47Tucker Carlson?

  Who is he?

• 33:48Speaker 02

  I don't know. And what's really interesting, Trump gets shot, everyone's reacting and Fusca's not.

• 33:55Speaker 02

  And then there's two pieces of footage.

• 33:56Tucker Carlson?

  When you say you've seen him before, you've seen him in photographs before?

• 33:59Speaker 02

  Oh, he had been talked about. I've dug down some deep rabbit holes and find this guy. So one of the things you discover, you know this as well as anyone, you, you think you're going down a rabbit hole and you discover Gobekli Tepe. You get down the rabbit hole and you go, this thing, that this, there's a, there's an entire ecosystem down here that people don't know exists. Once, once you, it's like, it's like, once you, you, you ask, how did Kennedy get killed? And you go, oh, boy, you know, that, that's troubling, right? And then building seven, which you talked with Ron Johnson, who by the way, was in our Doc Zoom group, right? When I'm talking, we had everyone, we had everyone. Once you go on one or two of these and you go, I, I can't trust anything.

• 34:43Speaker 02

  And I'm, I work in a field where you're supposed to be able to get the facts and say, now here's an odd story. A friend of mine is binding all my annual reviews that I write, I write one blog a year. I've been thinking about why.

• 34:57Tucker Carlson?

  And, and I Can, can you just pause and describe what that is? That, that's really the reason I wanted to talk to you was because your, your interview is, you know, well known among people who are paying attention. What is it and why do you do it? So the people trying to wreck our civilization want you to be passive. They want you weak so they can control you. Weakness is their goal. No, thanks. Our friends at Beam, a proud American company, understand that our country can only be great if its people are strong. And that's why they've created a new creatine product to help listeners like you stay mentally sharp and physically fit. People like to mock creatine. CNN doesn't like creatine at all.

• 35:40Tucker Carlson?

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• 36:24Tucker Carlson?

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• 36:33Speaker 00

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• 37:03Speaker 05

  This podcast is supported by Anthropic, the public benefit corporation behind Claude. Everyone's got a hard question about AI. Anthropic was built to surface those questions and share what it finds along the way, because there's hope in hard questions. Ask yours at claude.ai/spotify and keep thinking. That's claude.ai/spotify.

• 37:29Speaker 02

  So I stopped paying 100% attention to chemistry and started on the side looking at markets when I became a boomer with some wealth and I started paying and I became, I was a tech ball. And then by 98, I realized the markets were in trouble. I'd read enough books, read enough blogs, read enough articles. And, and so, and then that naturally led me to politics, because if you don't understand politics, you don't understand economics. And, and around 07, I wrote a, I used to, on this chat board I was at, I'd write a summary at the end of the year. And part of it was to, to, to make

• 38:12Speaker 02

  sure that my fairly extreme views weren't costing me serious pain and suffering. And, and, and instead of getting 200 clicks, because this group is about 200 of us talking, it went to like 4,000. I go, what happened? And he said, oh, I put it on my blog. Someone told me that. So, so in 09, I decided to do it seriously. I said, 30 years of investing. And so I wrote this, this thing. I said, 30 years of investing from, from the cheap seats was the title. And it went wild, actually. And part of it was because, because I'd been highly

• 38:52Speaker 02

  successful as a rank amateur through the 90s as a tech bull. I made 700% on WorldCom and then got out. I made 700% on Dell, Warner Lambert. I thought I was a genius. And, and so I had years where I made over 100% without leverage. And, and, and then I got out. And I got out due to Y2K, which turns out to be a grift. Yeah. It took me decades to figure that out. I thought I just blew it. But no, Silicon Valley selling software and hardware. And I can make that story, but it's not worth it. And then, and then, so I started paying

• 39:35Speaker 02

  attention to politics. And then I just went deeper and deeper down rabbit holes. I see, I know I'm reading about Putin in 2012, trying to understand what's going on there and stuff like that. So, so I just kind of naturally got on rabbit holes. Now, you can't market a blog worse than writing one a year. Right? That's about as bad as you get. And I don't charge for it. So there's that. And, and then I realized, though, the reason it works for me is if I wrote a blog once a week, most of them would be garbage. Because imagine how many blogs I would have written about how Trump and Elon are best friends. Right? And now it seems irrelevant. I'd be writing about how Trump and Elon are enemies. And

• 40:20Speaker 02

  then a month from now, it'll be irrelevant because they'll be best friends again. You're right. And so you could, I could not write a weekly blog. And so what I do is, is I, by writing once a year, gives me a long time to think about. So I get the idea and then I sort of watch and go, oh, look at that. That's a puzzle piece right there. So it essentially is book length. 250, 300 pages every fall.

• 40:48Speaker 02

  And you don't charge for it. And I don't, and I, you also can't write it in March. That's not a year in review. So I usually end up with about 700 pages of links and notes. And if, if I see something, we talked before about, about using tripe metaphors, you know, how we both hate it. And, but once in a while I'll see a way to insult a person. I'll go, oh, I'm saving that. Right? Now, the other reason it's really great. Where do people find it? It's published at Peak Prosperity. And, and it's my, it's my pinned tweet. So it stays up there all year and then until I publish the next one. And it gives me the chance to collect the information, to ponder what's going on that year. And then, and some things become irrelevant. So I don't write about them.

• 41:33Speaker 02

  Some things are not, some things become trite, right? But I think my analysis of the 2016 election, for example, is really good. The prophetic line. I was watching BET. Please don't get me to explain why I'm watching BET and Black Entertainment Today or something, whatever. Television. And some burly black guy's talking about Trump. And he says, forget the messenger. Listen to the message. Listen to the message. I'm going, holy moly, right? Turns out he was the head of the end of, of the new Black Panther Party. I go, Trump just got endorsed by the Black Panthers.

• 42:15Speaker 02

  So I, and then I saw Jimmy Brown, the running back, say he will be a president of the people. And, and all of a sudden, and so I wrote, it might just be a flicker, but I think the black community's moving to the right. And boy, was that ahead of its time. And so what I won't do is write about something that I was writing about. Why? Yeah. The other problem I face is that I don't write about stuff. I'm an expert. I write about stuff that I know nothing.

• 42:48Speaker 02

  So when I wrote about, I've been following Putin, but when the Ukraine war came, first thing I noticed, I bet you noticed it too, it wasn't a war. It was a police action. And they weren't killing people. They were moving troops across the border. They were talking to Ukrainians. They were, and I kept saying to my wife, this is not a war. You see some grandmother going, ah, this is just really terrible. You know, and I'm going, that's not a war. You want to see a war, look at Baghdad, day one.

• 43:16Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 43:17Speaker 02

  That's a war. That's what a war looks like, right? You'd see an explosion from 20 miles away, you wouldn't know what blew up. Right? Like, my wife thought I was nuts, I go, it's not a war, it's not a war. Well, it became a war because as you and I both know, NATO wanted a war. And so it morphed from being a police action, which I think Putin was trying to throw a fastball past NATO's chin and saying, back off on this whole NATO thing.

• 43:40Tucker Carlson?

  That's correct.

• 43:41Speaker 02

  And, and so when I wrote about that, I found about 20 to 40 guys who were trying to get it right, which includes you. It includes guys like Max Abramson, do I know, do I have that right? Glenn Greenwald, the guy who died, what's his name? The guy who got killed by the Ukrainians.

• 44:02Tucker Carlson?

  Gonzalo Lira.

• 44:03Speaker 02

  Gonzalo Lira.

• 44:04Tucker Carlson?

  An American who was murdered by the Ukrainian government.

• 44:06Speaker 02

  And we could have gotten him out with a phone call and we chose not to.

• 44:08Tucker Carlson?

  Hundred percent.

• 44:08Speaker 02

  Because the narrative was Putin's bad, Ukraine's a bunch of really nice guys, super nice guys, it's a democracy. What a crock of shit. That was a lie from head to toe. We wanted a war, we still want a war. I've, I have intelligence friends too, not like you, but I have them. And, and I was talking to one the other day. I think he likes to talk to me because he can talk to me about these subjects. And in his universe, I'm the only guy he can talk to for which he's, he does have to worry. Cause everyone else in his world is connected, everyone else in his world. So I think he likes to have real honest conversations. One day, we're on the phone, he says, do you do Signal? I go, yeah. So we went to Signal, he said someone was listening to us.

• 44:54Speaker 02

  Boy.

• 44:55Tucker Carlson?

  There's a lot of that.

• 44:56Speaker 02

  There's a lot of that.

• 44:57Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, I know.

• 44:58Speaker 02

  So there's always a narrative. There's always one narrative and we're now in an era where you only get to talk about that narrative. You know that. I know that. You and I were just mutually.

• 45:07Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah. And, and the penalties for straying from the story are.

• 45:10Speaker 02

  You get fired.

• 45:11Tucker Carlson?

  Are real. Yeah, totally. I mean, whatever. I, there's been no age in human history where telling the truth, the real truth is rewarded. So.

• 45:20Speaker 02

  So, so where you first really won me over. So you and I agree that when you were young, you were a punk.

• 45:28Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 45:29Speaker 02

  The fact that you're so proud of the metamorphosis is great. It may have come before this, but where I noticed it was the Las Vegas shootings where is, we kind of talked a little bit of breakfast. Here's the funny story. They interviewed that night a guy named Mike Cronk. And Mike Cronk tells.

• 45:51Tucker Carlson?

  The night of the shootings.

• 45:52Speaker 02

  The night of the shooting.

• 45:52Tucker Carlson?

  That was 2017, maybe?

• 45:54Speaker 02

  I can't remember. Yeah. And Mike Cronk told this story. He didn't look very emotional, which I found a little odd. I, by the way, think all the shootings within an error bar are not what they appear to be. I'll take it all the way back to Columbine if you want. But Mike Cronk talks about his friend getting shot three times in the chest from hundreds of yards away. And, and later a marksman said, not possible. Too much spray. A sniper would be required to hit a guy three times. And, and, and the guy was just doing this, right? And Mike says his friend stuck his fingers in the bullet, his own bullet holes

• 46:39Speaker 02

  to stop the bleeding. I'm going, now you're lying. Why is Mike lying? Right away, red flag. Why is Mike lying?

• 46:46Tucker Carlson?

  And who is he, by the way?

• 46:47Speaker 02

  Well, that's a great question. So Mike then finishes, how are they put him on a cart and wheeled him out?

• 46:55Tucker Carlson?

  May I just ask why?

• 46:56Speaker 02

  I'll tell you.

• 46:57Tucker Carlson?

  Why did you know he was lying when he said his friend put his own fingers?

• 47:00Speaker 02

  Because you don't, you don't get shot three times in the chest and provide your own healthcare. Fair, fair.

• 47:06Tucker Carlson?

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• 47:50Tucker Carlson?

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• 48:37Speaker 05

  This podcast is supported by Anthropic, the public benefit corporation behind Claude. Everyone's got a hard question about AI. Anthropic was built to surface those questions and share what it finds along the way because there's hope in hard questions. Ask yours at claude.ai/spotify and keep thinking. That's claude.ai/spotify.

• 49:03Speaker 02

  So then, like YouTube, you see it rolls over 15 seconds and then it goes to the next YouTube. And we're, we're watching Vegas like you watch 9/11, right?

• 49:13Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 49:14Speaker 02

  It was really sad. 500 people. It is the biggest shooting since probably Gettysburg.

• 49:19Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 49:20Speaker 02

  Right? When was the last time you heard a gun antagonist say, remember Vegas? We gotta get rid of guns.

• 49:28Tucker Carlson?

  Never.

• 49:29Speaker 02

  Never. Right. And you know why? So it rolls to the next interview and it's Mike Cronk, new network, same guy. He tells the same story. Now he's looking a little more emotional and his story changes just a little, just a little around the edges. And then it rolls to the next interview and there's Mike Cronk again. And I go, why? You got 22,000 people and why are you interviewing Mike Cronk? And then there were oddities that were always showing up like some lady walking through the crowd saying, you're all gonna die tonight and they wilt, they carted her away and things like that. Yeah, yeah. Weird stuff. And so I tried to figure out who Mike Cronk was. He's just some hick from Alaska. Right? He's just some hick from Alaska. After the fact, I looked and just picture him

• 50:13Speaker 02

  holding an elk by the horns, you know, that he shot. The next day, the, the head of the police said, there's no way one guy did it. The following day, he said, one guy did it. Takes a long time to show one guy did it. Right? That's, that's something you don't know. There's a lot of debris before you figure that out.

• 50:33Speaker 02

  There's now a documentary called Route 41. So I dug into this. You, what I noticed is you stayed with the story for about two weeks, maybe, and you were bringing up, and Coulter jumped in, you know, Paddock was making money. How? Playing video poker? That's his, that's the way he's making a living? That's like saying I'm a professional crackhead? And, uh, and then what happens is there was shooting all over the place. There was shooting everywhere.

• 51:02Tucker Carlson?

  In the city that day.

• 51:03Speaker 02

  In the city that night. And so now there's, if you don't believe me, there's this documentary called Route 41, and they got stuff I didn't know about, but they also got stuff that, um, that I, so it's kind of an answer key for me to use academic terms. And if you watch Route 41, you will see there were shooters everywhere. There are cop cameras showing shooters. And then, remember the guy got shot in the leg up on the floor where paddock was?

• 51:26Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 51:27Speaker 02

  Yeah, some guy named Jesus or something, right? Some, some illegal with two social security numbers. Hello. Um, and, and, and, and then afterwards, reporters tried to get to his house. His house is being protected by, by cars. They had no license plates. And, and then all of a sudden he goes to Mexico. And when asked, well, where'd he go? They said, well, he was planning a trip to Mexico. So when I wrote it, I said, oh, by the way, Jesus, when you get back, could you stop in? We've got some questions for you. Right? And then he comes back and he does one interview on Ellen DeGeneres. And Ellen introduced him saying, and he's there with a handler I had already seen. I'm going, wait a minute.

• 52:08Speaker 02

  That guy, I've been seeing that guy a lot, that other guy. So Jesus is looking at his feet. His name isn't Jesus, but it's something like that. Ellen introduced him, this is the only interview you're gonna do, and you gotta get it off your chest. I'm going, oh shit, here we go. And then, and then, and then the handler's doing all the talking. Jesus is looking at his feet. And then we never hear about Jesus again. Probably he's in some shallow grave somewhere because he's too inconvenient. But, um,

• 52:34Tucker Carlson?

  I tried to interview him at the time.

• 52:36Speaker 02

  Really?

• 52:37Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 52:37Speaker 02

  Couldn't get to him, could you?

• 52:38Tucker Carlson?

  He drove to Mexico from Vegas.

• 52:41Speaker 02

  Right.

• 52:42Tucker Carlson?

  Two of them.

• 52:42Speaker 02

  Yeah, probably an escort.

• 52:44Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, then he came back and, uh, yeah, I tried, I tried my hardest.

• 52:47Speaker 02

  Ellen works for, man, the company that owns Mandalay.

• 52:52Tucker Carlson?

  His handler.

• 52:53Speaker 02

  Yeah. No, no, um, Ellen DeGeneres.

• 52:56Tucker Carlson?

  Ellen, I'm so sorry.

• 52:57Speaker 02

  Yeah. And so, so they're buttoning it down. Now, what you see from Route 41 video is there was just an enormous amount of chaos. There's enormous number, numbers of shooters. Even that night, you were seeing, uh, videos from cab drivers saying they're shooting over here, they're shooting over there was, and, and, and there would be some chaos, but there's way too much. There's guys who took audios and said, here's, here bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, here that, that, that, that, that. And so you could hear multiple guns, the whole thing. So then what happened? Mike Cronk. I start reading trauma surgeons saying there's something wrong with the story. You know, if you get hit with, you know, what was AR-15 or something?

• 53:38Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, and a 308, a bigger deer rifle.

• 53:40Speaker 02

  You're gonna die out there. You're gonna bleed out right there. Even if it doesn't hit a major artery, it's gonna turn your leg to jello.

• 53:46Tucker Carlson?

  Free chest wounds from a rifle?

• 53:47Speaker 02

  Yeah. So, so what would he look like? And so then I saw an interview of a, of a young woman and she's sitting there in a chair in the hospital and they're interviewing her. I'm going, you look pretty perky. And, um, and, and then Mike Cronk with a news crew goes in and interviews his friend. Now, first and foremost, we know HIPAA says you ain't bringing a news crew into a hospital room. Second, we know three shots to the chest, he'd be in the ICU. The only way you'd know he's alive is that there'd be a beeping on the screen. And he'd have hoses coming out of every orifice and he would look dead. And so they take the news crew and they interview his friend. He's got a nasal cannula, a nasal cannula.

• 54:31Speaker 02

  So I'm sitting there thinking, oh, so you're, you're talking with three holes in your chest. What are you sticking your fingers so the air doesn't come flying out of your chest holes? Right? And then I notice the screen's not even plugged in. Now, what is Mike Cronk now? He's a state senator from Alaska, in Alaska. I think he's a state level state senator.

• 54:53Tucker Carlson?

  What?

• 54:53Speaker 02

  Yeah. Who's the chief of police? He became governor of Nevada or something, right? So, so again, so there's a guy named John Cullen, who did an analysis of the shooting and his conclusion-

• 55:10Tucker Carlson?

  A relative?

• 55:12Speaker 02

  A relative?

• 55:12Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 55:13Speaker 02

  No, no, no, no, no, this felt different. John worked for Oracle, he's some on the spectrum code head. He also analyzed the Butler shooting, um, the audios of the Butler shooting.

• 55:23Tucker Carlson?

  He's an on the spectrum code head?

• 55:25Speaker 02

  He's on the spectrum code head. He, he, he sort of bears down and grabs on something a little too firmly, I think, but, but, but he brings-

• 55:31Tucker Carlson?

  As on the spectrum code heads.

• 55:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, I know. And he, there was pretty good evidence that a lot of the shooting was coming from helicopters behind the Mandalay and he tracked the transponders turning on and off behind the Mandalay. The story was that Mohammed bin Salman was on the top floor.

• 55:49Tucker Carlson?

  The crown, crown prince of ruler of Saudi Arabia?

• 55:51Speaker 02

  Yes, yes. A guy who lots of people would like to kill. And his theory is, is that the Saudis tried to flush him out of there and on the way out, they would cap him. Now, they blew it. If that's the story, they blew it. I think the helicopter idea is not bad. But I did a couple of podcasts with John and I said, John, but what about all the shooting on the ground? And John was kind of dismissive. I go, you can't dismiss it. You can't let that stuff go. Your model's got to include that. But, um, it occurred, um, a year later, Mohammed, remember when Khashoggi got killed? What was his name? Jamal Khashoggi. Now, a non Khashoggi is one of the most famous CIA

• 56:36Speaker 02

  guys on the planet. Jamal Khashoggi is the one who got diced up and fed to the camels. Now, he's a New York Times reporter. I think he was also CIA.

• 56:44Tucker Carlson?

  Washington Post columnist. Yeah. And he was killed in

• 56:47Speaker 02

  In the embassy.

• 56:49Tucker Carlson?

  In Istanbul, I believe.

• 56:51Speaker 02

  Okay. Supposedly, on the anniversary of the Vegas shootings, supposedly Mohammed bin Salman had a party, locked the doors and showed a video of him getting sliced up and said to the royal sitting in the room, don't even think about it. Now, when I wrote about Khashoggi, everyone was having a cow over Khashoggi, right? When he got killed. I'm going, we're killing tens of thousands of Yemenis. We killed 5 million people in the Middle East, directly and indirectly, due to our post 9/11 responses, right? And I called him ODK, One Dead Khashoggi. I said, it is insane to worry about one dead guy

• 57:34Speaker 02

  in a region of the world where people die for no reason all the time.

• 57:39Tucker Carlson?

  Who was at war with this, his own government, the Saudi government? I mean, I'm, you know, I'm obviously not for vivisecting people, but I also think, like, there, yeah, there, there's a scale of evil and starving kids is worse than what happened in Khashoggi. I agree with you.

• 57:56Speaker 02

  Right. So, so you were the only mainstream guy who I watched steadily on this story, staying with the Vegas shootings, noting that there's something wrong.

• 58:06Tucker Carlson?

  We got very hassled by law enforcement.

• 58:09Speaker 02

  I'm sure you did.

• 58:10Tucker Carlson?

  Which was, you know, I worked at Fox News, obviously at the time, and big supporters of law enforcement. I've always been a big supporter of law enforcement. We've never gotten hassled anywhere. Just the opposite. Oh, you work for Fox News? Oh, my gosh, of course. Slow down.

• 58:23Speaker 02

  The official law enforcement is what got you.

• 58:25Tucker Carlson?

  Man. I mean, they blocked our camera position. Oh, yeah. They were totally opposed to us doing that. I've never had that experience.

• 58:33Speaker 02

  So, so let's stay on the shootings just briefly. Uvalde, there's problems all over that shooting. Remember that shooting in Texas where the guy got into the school?

• 58:40Tucker Carlson?

  I knew, knew the mayor. Yes.

• 58:42Speaker 02

  There's problems all over the place because first of all, there's something like 800 law enforcement guys within reach of the damn thing. And there's a ton of like 5,000 people. And, and then they didn't go in for 78 minutes or something. I go,

• 58:57Tucker Carlson?

  I remember.

• 58:57Speaker 02

  Excuse me. You show me 10 cops, probably eight of them have kids. Right now, I'm reading a book called The Moral Animal. It's about human behavior.

• 59:07Tucker Carlson?

  Yep, yep.

• 59:08Speaker 02

  And, and out of those eight, eight would have gone in and said, I don't care what you say. I'm going in. You give me a soccer mom, she's going in. Right? And then there was the mom who did go in and her story was incoherent. Her story, she came out and she said this, and then she said this, and it was not consistent. And I'm going, that's just a narrative thrown on top of it.

• 59:33Tucker Carlson?

  So what are we looking at here? So?

• 59:35Speaker 02

  K-Fabe.

• 59:36Tucker Carlson?

  What does that mean?

• 59:37Speaker 02

  K-Fabe is something Eric Weinstein wrote about. He was asked to write an essay with a bunch of other scholarly types. And he said that politics was K-Fabe. It was professional wrestling.

• 59:49Speaker 02

  And there's all these layers, there's all these tricks, it's way more sophisticated than people think. The way you get, the way you engage the audience and you have some reality and some non-reality and things change. And he talked about politics being cave fame. I don't think anything you see can be interpreted literally and at face value.

• 1:00:12Tucker Carlson?

  Now, what would be the purpose, however?

• 1:00:16Speaker 02

  Well, um, as I was telling you, a friend's binding all my annual reviews and I will probably make a thousand dollars off this. I mean, this is not getting rich. I'm paid probably .001 cent per hour pay for this task. I had to go back, I've been proofing the drafts from previous years. And what I noticed about 2013, 14, 15 is something's changed. And what's changed is

• 1:00:51Speaker 02

  you could get facts and you felt like you were game and the stories would break and they would stay that way and they wouldn't be shifting around and you could say, okay, here's what happened in here, here, and this piece fits in here. And, and, and now you can't. Now it's like, and we talked about using tribe metaphors. Here's one, but I really like it. It's like when your GPS starts randomly rerouting you. And our GPS just keeps random rerouting, rerouting, I go, I'm not taking that right turn now, you know? So you just boot the GPS, you break out your gazette here and you figure out where you're going, right? And so we, our GPS is rerouting us constantly.

• 1:01:32Speaker 02

  And, and one of your guests, Mike Benz, who I occasionally chat with briefly, who's very impressive. And as, as I've said, I don't know everything about him. And I don't mean just in a casual way. I think he's, I think there's a complex story there. But right now, he's saying the right stuff. He gave a talk one day where he talked about how around 2013, the so-called deep state, which is a term I've tried to figure out where it came from. I think the guy gets the most credit is kind of Peter Dale Scott, who wrote about drug trafficking, Berkeley professor, and he called it deep politics. But I think it predates that, but that's where I get it from.

• 1:02:17Speaker 02

  He said, "The deep state realized they were losing control of the narrative. They had underestimated the internet and social media."

• 1:02:26Tucker Carlson?

  Exactly.

• 1:02:27Speaker 02

  And as a consequence, they had to get a hold of it completely. And so then this is where we're at. Now, we thought Trump was going to save us. We thought Elon was going to save us. My Twitter feed is a dumpster fire. So instead of taking away data, they provide excess noise. So now, so now, instead of trying to suppress the signal, you just increase the noise.

• 1:02:51Tucker Carlson?

  I think that's very deep. And I think it points to the what's happening. I think that's clearly true.

• 1:02:58Speaker 02

  So what is the fact? That was the title of last year's write-up. What is the fact?

• 1:03:04Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, it's impossible. You can't actually control the, you can't restrict the flow of information across the internet.

• 1:03:12Speaker 02

  So you throw debris out there?

• 1:03:14Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 1:03:14Speaker 02

  It's like the pilots who throw the debris out the back of the plane so that the guided missiles don't know what to hit.

• 1:03:23Tucker Carlson?

  Of course, exactly right.

• 1:03:24Speaker 02

  Right. And they also throw out debris so that, so that then they can prove that it's not true. So you feel like an idiot.

• 1:03:30Tucker Carlson?

  QAnon was clearly that.

• 1:03:32Speaker 02

  QAnon, yeah, QAnon.

• 1:03:34Tucker Carlson?

  What was QAnon?

• 1:03:35Speaker 02

  I don't know.

• 1:03:36Tucker Carlson?

  I don't either.

• 1:03:37Speaker 02

  I avoid, you know, I'd be listening to something and it would have useful information. And all of a sudden, then it would show the whole, and here's Trump and his generals are going to save the world.

• 1:03:45Tucker Carlson?

  No, I agree. But the interesting, I never knew anything about QAnon. I never paid any attention at all. I have a good friend who I really admire, is much smarter than I am, who, because he is smarter than I am, took like a year to look into QAnon.

• 1:03:58Speaker 02

  What'd he get?

• 1:04:01Tucker Carlson?

  I don't fully understand it, but here's what I understand is that, um, you know, some of the predictions in QAnon came true. I mean, it's a sophisticated thing. It's not just-

• 1:04:11Speaker 02

  Oh, I think it's a bunch of ex-spooks.

• 1:04:13Tucker Carlson?

  For sure. It's not a, you know, a bunch of college kids on-

• 1:04:17Speaker 02

  No.

• 1:04:18Tucker Carlson?

  4chan or whatever they claim it was.

• 1:04:20Speaker 02

  These are guys who are probably pissed that the system went bad.

• 1:04:23Tucker Carlson?

  It was, the point of it, it's unclear, you know, who's behind it. I have some theories, but, um, people I know actually, but, uh, but I don't know if they're true. But what I, what is obvious to me is that it was, it's a control mechanism. Trying to siphon off some of that energy and move it in a-

• 1:04:41Speaker 02

  Siphoning off the energy. That's exactly-

• 1:04:43Tucker Carlson?

  Less dangerous direction.

• 1:04:45Speaker 02

  Right. Focus on Wuhan. Right? Focus on the lab in Wuhan. That's siphoning-

• 1:04:52Tucker Carlson?

  It's all American politics. Like, have a race war. Leave us alone as we loot your country.

• 1:04:56Speaker 02

  That's right. That's right. It, there's a meme out there. There's a joke where the king and his, his right-hand man, his chief of staff are looking at the angry townspeople. Some have pitchforks and some have torches. And the king says, don't you have to worry? You just convinced the guys with the pitchforks are the enemies of the guys with the torches.

• 1:05:16Tucker Carlson?

  Um, so you said that a couple of times. Focus on Wuhan. I've, I've fallen for that, for that squirrel.

• 1:05:23Speaker 02

  Squirrel.

• 1:05:24Tucker Carlson?

  Uh, Wuhan thing. Uh, why-

• 1:05:27Speaker 02

  A blind nut finds the squirrel.

• 1:05:30Tucker Carlson?

  That's funny. Um, that's real. I'm stealing that. Sorry. I'm making, making a note.

• 1:05:35Speaker 02

  That's an original. I never know if I heard it and forgot where I got it, but that's an original.

• 1:05:40Tucker Carlson?

  The squirrel. Uh, what is that distracting us from?

• 1:05:44Speaker 02

  I think it is great. You put me in an asylum overnight.

• 1:05:48Tucker Carlson?

  An asylum overnight?

• 1:05:49Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah. My, my, my hotel's a former asylum.

• 1:05:52Tucker Carlson?

  Is it really?

• 1:05:53Speaker 02

  Yeah. You didn't ask?

• 1:05:54Tucker Carlson?

  No.

• 1:05:55Speaker 02

  Oh yeah. It's a former asylum. I said, you finally got it right.

• 1:05:59Tucker Carlson?

  Well, I think there's, there's wisdom here.

• 1:06:01Speaker 02

  There is wisdom here.

• 1:06:02Tucker Carlson?

  What are they distracting us from by having- Focus on Wuhan.

• 1:06:06Speaker 02

  Well, huge amounts of grift. You had, you interviewed Catherine Austin Fitz.

• 1:06:12Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 1:06:13Speaker 02

  I've been blessed.

• 1:06:15Tucker Carlson?

  A smart woman.

• 1:06:16Speaker 02

  So I come out of nowhere. I have no credentials beyond those that I can create. Right. And I think one of the ways you created is by being truthful.

• 1:06:25Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 1:06:26Speaker 02

  And I know truth is everything to you.

• 1:06:28Tucker Carlson?

  I, I try to make it that.

• 1:06:29Speaker 02

  And, and, and, and actually in this book, The Moral Animal, I say, the reason we self-delude is so that you can be truthful and deceive your opponent. That's what self-delusion is.

• 1:06:41Tucker Carlson?

  Yes.

• 1:06:42Speaker 02

  Um, and, and.

• 1:06:44Tucker Carlson?

  I practiced a lot of that.

• 1:06:46Speaker 02

  I've been adopted by some people who didn't have to adopt me. And so, for example, I'm tight with Steve Hanke, who's a famous economist. And, and Catherine has been very supportive and, and, and there's several dozen who, who somehow have decided that, that I'm worth their time and, and, and help me. And, and so they're, they're useful to chat with, they're useful to, but, but Catherine's story, and a lot of people think Catherine's nuts, right? But, but she talks about the huge amount of resources that have been siphoned off and the tens of trillions of dollars of resources that have been.

• 1:07:30Tucker Carlson?

  I know Catherine Austin Fitz, you can disagree with her, she's not nuts. That's not true.

• 1:07:34Speaker 02

  She's not what?

• 1:07:35Tucker Carlson?

  Nuts.

• 1:07:35Speaker 02

  Oh, no, I don't think she is nuts, right?

• 1:07:37Tucker Carlson?

  No, she's a ground, she's a grounded person.

• 1:07:39Speaker 02

  She could have things wrong, but that's totally different. And I had a friend, another friend who I think is phenomenal, tell me that she's nuts and don't, don't, don't get near her. And I said, no, I don't think so. And, and, but we all can get sucked down into the rabbit hole to the point you can't get out too. There are days where I wish, why don't you just go play golf?

• 1:08:04Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:04Speaker 02

  Or, right now I'm on a, my house is hanging off a hundred foot cliff looking west over Kewa Lake. I can literally throw rotten fruit off my deck and drop it down into the drink from, I can, I'll show you afterwards, I'll show you photos. It's, the view is such that if, there are places in the country where the view would cost $20 million, not in Ithaca, of course. Um, and, and, and if people come and visit.

• 1:08:31Speaker 02

  They should. It's beautiful. I can't remember why I said that. That's probably

• 1:08:36Tucker Carlson?

  Saying that people dismiss, um, you know, the, the few who are just committed to pursuing truth, no matter what as crazy. And you gave Catherine Fitz as an example, and but you said, you can actually go crazy.

• 1:08:51Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:08:51Tucker Carlson?

  By looking too carefully into.

• 1:08:53Speaker 02

  So the lake I'm on turns out broke the small, New York state small mouth bass record about three years ago, broke the New York state large mouth bass record last year. And I used to fish all the time when I was a kid and I haven't fished it. What's wrong with this picture?

• 1:09:08Tucker Carlson?

  Well, if you've got small mouth bass there, I think you need to fish it on a fly rod.

• 1:09:12Speaker 02

  I know.

• 1:09:12Tucker Carlson?

  It'll totally change your life.

• 1:09:13Speaker 02

  It's not a fly rod. It's a deep lake. It's a, um,

• 1:09:16Tucker Carlson?

  But you can catch them on the surface with a popper. And if you do, if you catch a sizable small mouth on a popper and a fly rod, you know,

• 1:09:22Speaker 02

  I'm an 18 foot deep shoal guy.

• 1:09:25Tucker Carlson?

  Sinking line.

• 1:09:25Speaker 02

  But, but so, you know, my wife thought that I had fish removed from my thumbs because she never saw a picture of me that didn't have a fish hanging off my, my hand. Um, but I haven't fished it.

• 1:09:36Tucker Carlson?

  Because you're absorbed in trying to figure out what's happening.

• 1:09:39Speaker 02

  Raising kids. I'm absorbed in other things. My wife has issues I gotta help her with. Um, and, and, and I, I have this fear of buying a boat.

• 1:09:50Tucker Carlson?

  But you, as someone who has taken, you know, ample intellectual energy and intelligence and focused it on trying to figure out what are we watching? Which I think is like a fair way to describe what you're doing. Like, what is this? What's the truth of it? Has that been

• 1:10:10Tucker Carlson?

  worth doing?

• 1:10:11Speaker 02

  That's the question. That is the question. And, and there was a time where I thought if I could get to the truth, then, then that would help in some way. But now it's not as clear.

• 1:10:23Tucker Carlson?

  Tell me what.

• 1:10:24Speaker 02

  Well, you know, now, first of all, what is the truth, right? The truth is now becoming very ambiguous. Um, last year I wrote about the history of World War II. I did a mini Daryl Cooper.

• 1:10:36Speaker 02

  And it started when I read a book by Diana West, who would be good if you interviewed her. And it was, it's this all revisionist history of World War II. And you go, well, why would you want to read that? Well, it turns out, I think the story we got about World War II is all wrong.

• 1:10:51Tucker Carlson?

  I think that's right.

• 1:10:52Speaker 02

  And, and then I read about FDR and FDR's right hand man was a Soviet spy.

• 1:10:57Tucker Carlson?

  Certainly was.

• 1:10:58Speaker 02

  Right? And, and therefore.

• 1:10:59Tucker Carlson?

  Confirmed.

• 1:11:00Speaker 02

  We should have been, one can make the argument, we should have sided with Hitler and fought Stalin. Patton said that. So, and, and maybe there wouldn't have been a Holocaust, right? You know, there's, but, but Stalin was awful by any metric and we, we weren't his ally. The story is that there were a few missing American soldiers at the end of World War II in Russian territory.

• 1:11:23Tucker Carlson?

  No.

• 1:11:24Speaker 02

  15 to 20,000 were missing and we left them there. And then you read about Pearl Harbor. We all sort of know the Pearl Harbor stories, not what we're told, but I dug into that and you find out the, we knew to the morning that Pearl Harbor was going to get attacked. Stalin knew it was going to be attacked. He wanted us to take the Japanese off his flank. And, and FDR's right hand man was okay with that because he was a Soviet spy, right? Then I read about FDR and the Great Depression, find out that every single penny he spent trying to help the, the forgot, Amity Shlaes, the forgotten man was spent to buy votes, every last penny. He was a sociopath. And every, the only thing he could do is lie. He was a compulsive liar. His, his inner circle had to constantly cover for his lying.

• 1:12:08Speaker 02

  And, and, and, and, and the only thing he's used for now is every time you want to grow government, you cite FDR. And, and so, so I read a half a dozen books that sort of went at these different angles and wrote about it. So I start out knowing nothing and then I write about it and I try to write to learn, which is the most terrifying part of AI, by the way. If you take out the writing, you take out, you take out the thought.

• 1:12:34Tucker Carlson?

  Completely agree.

• 1:12:36Speaker 02

  The other thing that scares me about it, boy, they're a squirrel.

• 1:12:43Speaker 02

  AI is going to make the system very unforgivingly brittle. I'm not worried as much about the authoritarian slant that Elon occasionally talks about, which might be just to fake us out, who knows. I am worried that we're going to reach a point where, you know, when everything, everything computer does is binary. So you go to the grocery store, you slip your credit card in, it says you're good to go, or didn't work. Swipe it again. Didn't work. Sorry, you're out of here, right? They de-bank people. This is a big problem. What happens when everything is so AI'd up that, that, that there's no person anywhere within earshot who can help you at all? No one who can say, okay, let me, let me get this for you, right?

• 1:13:21Tucker Carlson?

  Right. There's been a misunderstanding, or there's

• 1:13:23Speaker 02

  There, yeah.

• 1:13:24Tucker Carlson?

  Some sort of human nuance required.

• 1:13:26Speaker 02

  Happened on the other day on a credit card. We were talking to a lady and it kept sending me in these loops and she finally straightened up. But what happens when the code is being written by computers? So there's no human who understands the code. So the system will be very brittle, be very unforgiving. Forget about whether it's used nefariously. Forget about whether someone uses it as an authoritarian tool, which is very real possibility. And I worry about that a lot. Just the fact that no one will know who's driving the cab, ever on anything. And, and also now you're taking out the intellectual part. So when I write, when you write, when I write a scientific paper, the project's not done until I've written it, because that's where you, you, you lay it out. And if you can't put it on

• 1:14:07Speaker 02

  paper coherently with no internal contradictions, you're not done. You're not done understanding it. You're not done understanding it. The writing is understanding.

• 1:14:18Tucker Carlson?

  I, so I think people who don't write for a living or aren't forced to write regularly don't understand. This concept is a hard one. But the, it's through writing, or I would also say speaking, you know, public speaking, that putting concepts into words makes the concepts intelligible to the person who's articulating them. Like you don't really understand something until you've been forced to write about it.

• 1:14:42Speaker 02

  It's like a comedy shop. You go, you know, the, the great comedians will go down to the cheapo comedy shops to practice, to figure out what works, what doesn't work, right? And then they go on Johnny Carson.

• 1:14:56Tucker Carlson?

  Exactly.

• 1:14:56Speaker 02

  And so, um, so you

• 1:14:58Tucker Carlson?

  So when there's no writing, there's no thinking.

• 1:15:01Speaker 02

  Right. So I read about Maui, the fires. I wrote about that. Very clearly a land grab.

• 1:15:09Speaker 02

  You may remember how many kids died?

• 1:15:11Tucker Carlson?

  No.

• 1:15:12Speaker 02

  Do you remember, the USA article said 750 kids are missing?

• 1:15:16Tucker Carlson?

  Yep.

• 1:15:16Speaker 02

  Right? When a kid's missing after something like that, they're dead. But they're not missing, they're dead. Maybe a couple found their way, someone drove them out of town, but they're dead. Try to find anywhere a statement about dead kids now. You can't find it. You go to Wikipedia, you, you search the word "child", you search the word, you read it, there's no mention of dead children. There were 750 kids missing according to USA Today. Then all of a sudden, the governor saying, "Well, you know, we're worried about land speculators, so we're gonna buy the land up so that the speculators can't get it." And I go, "So you can sell it to your friends?" Right? Is it possible, maybe they mowed down Lahaina because they want to put up resorts and things?

• 1:16:01Speaker 02

  Right? But what also was out there was this idea of directed energy weapons starting the fires. Now, I think that was a dead end. I don't think directed energy weapons are used, even though there's a, it's, they're called DEWs, even though there's a DEW facility on Maui, you don't need that. And there were videos, I go, "I think those are fake." So I found nothing, but I used it as an excuse to read up on DEWs. And I was reading RAND reports from 40 years ago and...

• 1:16:31Tucker Carlson?

  What is a directed energy weapon?

• 1:16:33Speaker 02

  It's basically Star Wars. And so, it's Reagan Star Wars, and everyone said, "Oh, that's just science fiction." And I go, "Well, Gorbachev seemed to want to get rid of them every chance he got." So Gorbachev took them very seriously. So it turns out what you do is you put something in space, then it shoots some sort of energy, guided energy down to the surface of the earth. And it can, the different frequencies have different efficacies. And so, some are really good at hitting a target, some broaden out like microwaves are different than, than some sort of ultraviolet laser. I'm not very good at this stuff, but, and then I started reading about how what they do is they use a pulse of one laser to punch a hole through the atmosphere,

• 1:17:15Speaker 02

  and then the second pulse would go through that hole. I mean, it's really clever stuff. This is 40-year-old RAND reports. What do they have behind the paywall 40 years later? Now, the best, I think, evidence of a DEW being used, and I was reading about fires in different places where... Trees were burning that shouldn't have burned and cars that there were there's I wrote about it. If someone wants to go read it, that was a couple of years ago. The best evidence of a DEW. So if you've got these, you gotta test them, right? It's like why you need, why you need, you know, bioweapons labs in Ukraine, you gotta test them. You

• 1:17:57Speaker 02

  can't use lab rats. You look at the Quebec fires. Satellite imagery of the Quebec fires, very mysterious. About 26 ish fires started simultaneously. How do you know some? Well, if a fire starts and then another one starts, it'll be downwind. So you'll see it'll look like the Hawaiian islands, right?

• 1:18:20Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 1:18:21Speaker 02

  Boom, all at once. 26 fires. In a crudely buckshot pattern, there was 350 miles in diameter.

• 1:18:36Speaker 02

  Boy, that's a determined arsonist. Or at least 26 of them.

• 1:18:41Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 1:18:42Speaker 02

  In the middle of nowhere.

• 1:18:43Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, with helicopter, I mean, no roads, so.

• 1:18:46Speaker 02

  But, but, no, a cellphone can't do it, you know, nothing, right? They're in the middle of nowhere. And all of a sudden, they all start simultaneously. And I'm going, okay, that probably was them testing out their weapons. And we have a lot of wars to test weapons, right?

• 1:19:01Tucker Carlson?

  So you, so your, your basic overarching theory is around 2014, 15, it became clear to the people running the world that you can't keep information under wraps anymore because the internet is impossible to control. And so you had to flood, flood people's brains with extraneous and misleading information.

• 1:19:26Speaker 02

  And shut down people. They, they shut, they booted the president of the United States off Twitter.

• 1:19:32Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 1:19:33Speaker 02

  How is that possible?

• 1:19:35Tucker Carlson?

  Because he was a racist?

• 1:19:37Speaker 02

  Shut up racist.

• 1:19:38Tucker Carlson?

  That's what they told me.

• 1:19:39Speaker 02

  Shut up racist.

• 1:19:40Tucker Carlson?

  He was a racist.

• 1:19:42Speaker 02

  Right. You know, so many, there's so many 70,000 got booted off Twitter. My sister in law, who's, she had a Twitter feed, she can't get it back. You know, that somehow, I don't know how I survived.

• 1:19:53Tucker Carlson?

  What was her crime?

• 1:19:54Speaker 02

  She must've said something favorable about Trump or something. I don't know.

• 1:19:59Tucker Carlson?

  So, but.

• 1:20:02Tucker Carlson?

  The control of information, the shaping of people's understandings of the world around them, that's, that's the whole game right there.

• 1:20:09Speaker 02

  So I used to say the internet was democracy's greatest hope and worst enemy.

• 1:20:16Speaker 02

  And that it was a battle. I don't think we're going to win it. And the reason I don't is because it's too powerful. And so whoever has control of it will then have that power.

• 1:20:30Speaker 02

  So it's only a battle for who gets control of it.

• 1:20:33Tucker Carlson?

  Control of information.

• 1:20:35Speaker 02

  Control of the, the digital world. Yeah.

• 1:20:38Tucker Carlson?

  So if you see voices out there dissenting from

• 1:20:42Speaker 02

  I hear voices, Tony.

• 1:20:44Tucker Carlson?

  If you, if you see, if you see or hear voices that are dissenting from the official storyline, they're going to have to be silenced or eliminated. I mean,

• 1:20:53Speaker 02

  Well, look at what happened. Look at the ambushes that occurred when Thomas Massey, who I think is great, Rand Paul, who I think has matured immensely, and who was the third Republican who, who stepped away from the narrative. And all of a sudden the attacks were relentless. Now that could just be Trump being Trump.

• 1:21:16Tucker Carlson?

  It wasn't just Trump attacking them though.

• 1:21:18Speaker 02

  I know.

• 1:21:19Tucker Carlson?

  Marjorie.

• 1:21:20Speaker 02

  Marjorie Taylor Greene, who by the way, is nowhere near as stupid. I mean, she's not even stupid.

• 1:21:25Tucker Carlson?

  Oh, I know.

• 1:21:26Speaker 02

  She ran a construction company.

• 1:21:27Tucker Carlson?

  Oh, I know. And her, um, she just doesn't have whatever that normal, the, the fear that controls people in DC where like, I can't.

• 1:21:36Speaker 02

  But how do you turn on Thomas Massey? Marjorie Taylor Greene at least played a role in kayfabe that you can imagine drawing fire. Massey's this guy, you know, who, who built his own house and fixes his own car and he's, he's an engineer, he's, he's, he's, he, he's the, he's an archetype of who we ought to be.

• 1:22:00Tucker Carlson?

  As a country.

• 1:22:00Speaker 02

  As a country.

• 1:22:01Tucker Carlson?

  I so vehemently agree with that.

• 1:22:03Speaker 02

  And they turned on him.

• 1:22:07Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, well, I haven't.

• 1:22:09Speaker 02

  We know why they turned on him.

• 1:22:10Tucker Carlson?

  Texted with him this morning. Um, no, I, I mean, you know, you could say I disagree with, with Thomas Massey, but if you think Thomas Massey is the problem.

• 1:22:19Speaker 02

  You are the problem.

• 1:22:20Tucker Carlson?

  I couldn't agree more. Um, I couldn't agree more just because first of all, he's a decent man, which always matters to me. And I think it should matter to all of us. I, you could, you know, give Thomas Massey a routing number and he's not going to take a dollar. He's just not, he's not gonna.

• 1:22:33Speaker 02

  He's the only one without a handler.

• 1:22:35Tucker Carlson?

  That's true. And, um, and I think we should admire that, even if you think that all members of Congress should be required to have handlers. It's okay to live in a world where one doesn't. That's, that, what I find so.

• 1:22:46Speaker 02

  But it's not okay to live in a world where everyone else does.

• 1:22:49Tucker Carlson?

  No, I agree with you, but I just find what's so interesting, and there's a religious quality to all of these conversations that I find so striking. It's like, it's okay if you have, you know, all this power, all this money, if you're running the US government, or whoever you are with a lot of power, you know, you can afford to have some percentage of the population not play along. You don't need, it doesn't need to be an Albanian election in 1982. Like you can have some dissent.

• 1:23:18Speaker 02

  Unless you're an authoritarian state.

• 1:23:20Tucker Carlson?

  I guess that's right. I mean, but even in an effective authoritarian state, Saudi Arabia, in the Emirates, these are, you know, basically theocracies. They don't, they don't agree with that, but they, you know, these are Islamic states under Sharia law. You can kind of dissent. It's okay. You just can't do anything really threatening, of course.

• 1:23:38Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:23:39Tucker Carlson?

  But more dissent is allowed in Abu Dhabi than in DC. I just find that just absolutely incredible. Like, what is this? Why, why can't they allow Thomas Massey to just like have his own Massey views?

• 1:23:50Speaker 02

  He has a vote.

• 1:23:51Tucker Carlson?

  He's a vote? Okay, but you've got hundreds of others. Like, I, I just think it's weird. There's this desire to make sure that nobody sings off the song sheet, like, and that person must be killed. And I, wow, I just, I don't enforce that among my own children.

• 1:24:07Speaker 02

  So.

• 1:24:12Tucker Carlson?

  Do you know what I'm talking about?

• 1:24:14Speaker 02

  No, I absolutely know.

• 1:24:15Tucker Carlson?

  It's bizarre.

• 1:24:16Speaker 02

  We used to allow opposing views.

• 1:24:19Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, I mean, look, if someone is really a threat to the system, well, I think that should be allowed, personally, because the people only.

• 1:24:26Speaker 02

  Depends on what way, but.

• 1:24:27Tucker Carlson?

  In what way? I have a very wide strike zone for that, but I get it if the system is like, I'm sorry, you're an actual threat, we have to kill you. Okay, systems exist to preserve themselves. I understand that. What I really can't even comprehend is someone out there in a place I've never been and never will go among 350 million people is making a noise that I disagree with, I must crush him. What is that? That's just weird to me. Why are you going to the effort to shut down all dissent?

• 1:24:56Speaker 02

  I don't know, but.

• 1:24:58Tucker Carlson?

  But it's, that's.

• 1:24:59Speaker 02

  That's what's happening.

• 1:25:00Tucker Carlson?

  Oh, I know.

• 1:25:03Speaker 02

  Not to swing the topic yet again, let me, let me get back to the universities.

• 1:25:10Speaker 02

  People don't understand universities. There are people who do, obviously, but the average person doesn't. So, so people are going to say, I'm talking my book. Let me, let me take this opportunity with your gargantuan following to explain how universities work so that.

• 1:25:28Tucker Carlson?

  Well, let me just say before you begin that I'm amazed by the broadness of your thinking, right or wrong, you're certainly thinking thoughts that most people don't allow themselves to think, and you are a tenured professor at an Ivy League college and you still have your job, apparently, so that does say something.

• 1:25:45Speaker 02

  It would be hard to fire me.

• 1:25:47Tucker Carlson?

  Apparently.

• 1:25:48Speaker 02

  I mean, part of the problem, one of the reasons I got canceled is because I twice fought unionizations.

• 1:25:54Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:55Speaker 02

  And the first time was at the request of the dean of faculty, the second time was at the request of the provost of late night phone call, you got to fight this, you got to put together a team, and that's the now president. And so if they fired me, that, that group was sort of behind my cancellation, so firing me would have been hard because, you know, you know, witness number one would be, did you ask column to, to fight the unions and did that lead to, you know, them canceling him and stuff like that?

• 1:26:24Speaker 02

  I really think Cornell's great. I think most universities are fine. We needed a fastball past our chin. Great example, Claudine Gay. Shouldn't be president of Harvard, shouldn't be on the faculty, shouldn't have a PhD, in my opinion. That is the sign of the rot that has gotten into the universities. But then, it's still an exceptional rot. So I don't see people at Cornell that look like Claudine Gay to me. And if you actually look in the whole DEI thing, you say, well, universities are super duper DEI. And I go, you guys are forgetting that a year ago, or two years ago, if you weren't DEI, you got destroyed. The whole system was geared up to make sure you paid dearly if you weren't DEI. So you

• 1:27:07Speaker 02

  had to have your deans of diversity and the world was demanding it. And don't forget, this is a world where biological men were competing in women's sports. They still kind of are, but at least it's now starting to dissipate. And that was considered totally normal and was considered rational. And if you fought it, you get fired and things like that. So the universities were simply responding. Now, they'd gotten way left wing. My colleagues were all hired, all hired based on their skills, guaranteed. I would have, I'd remember a case if it was a DEI hire. I remember a case because I would have fought it. I would have screamed. I don't shut up on things like that. We try to find the best person

• 1:27:51Speaker 02

  in the world to hire and we go for that person if we can. And we do pretty well. And so if you were on a campus, you wouldn't see what we're hearing about. I don't think. You'd walk around the campus, everything just looks pretty normal.

• 1:28:07Tucker Carlson?

  So you're in the hardest of the hard sciences, though. Do you think that...

• 1:28:10Speaker 02

  That's the problem. If I walked over the art squad, I'd see some Looney Tunes, right? And we're now to start, the cost of an education is too high to waste it.

• 1:28:22Speaker 02

  And so if you're gonna spend $300,000, you can't, you can't go into a career that you make 40,000 or that you make 25 because you're a barista.

• 1:28:33Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 1:28:33Speaker 02

  Right? It's just no longer even viable. So you have to. So colleges, if I were president of Cornell, I'd put together an elite committee of people I absolutely trusted and say, you guys are in charge of trying to figure out where we should be in 20 years and how to get there.

• 1:28:50Speaker 02

  Because, because we can't be here in 20 years. It's not gonna work. Arts and sciences and this whole idea of this broadly based education was formed prior to the cost and was formed when, when wealthy people went to college. So you could be frivolous if you wanted and, and, and getting a sheepskin could get you onto Wall Street and be the lead analyst for all the dot coms, Henry Blodgett's style, right? Those days are gone. And so colleges are gonna have to tighten up. But, but my colleagues are, I would say on average, out of 20, out of 30 colleagues, I'll say maybe, I think 27 of them are left of center. And

• 1:29:34Speaker 02

  I can't explain why. Now, when I talk to them, they're totally rational people, totally reasonable people. The way it works as a chemist is you are an entrepreneur. You get a job, they give you startup money to get started. You have to then go raise money. Funding rates are ballpark, maybe 15% of the people get funded. By the way, the ones who never get funded, they've dropped off. So that 15% of people still trying. And I'm gonna brag, I put 21 in a row successfully. Do the math on that. That's, that's improbable. But my colleagues are constantly battling, they're putting together this program, they're running research groups of anywhere from five to 30. No one pays for that. They raise

• 1:30:18Speaker 02

  the money from the federal system. You say, well, the Fed shouldn't pay the money. Well, years and years ago, we decided the way to run a research program in the United States was through universities and federal grants, was a Sputnik thing. There's other ways to do it, but we set up that system. And if you look at all the startup companies around the country and all the pharmaceutical agents, they all, you can trace their origins back to academic labs. Pfizer discovers far fewer drugs than they buy from some small startup that came out of some biochemistry department or some medical school or something. And so, so, so the academic research area

• 1:31:00Speaker 02

  is, is the foundation level starting point. I have a number of friends who were worth a fortune because they patented something. And that's actually good because it would be neutered and not even usable by the free market if it didn't have the patent coverage. And so it made sense. So, so it puts an incentive system in there, right? Cornell gets some, the investigating gets some, the department gets some, and the world gets a new drug. It's not a crazy system. Now, there's other ways to do it, but that's not how we do it. And we produce the best science. So it worked. Now, the problem is that Trump threw a fastball past our chin and we deserved it. We absolutely deserved it. So he's saying, look, get rid

• 1:31:45Speaker 02

  of the, the guys in sports, which Penn did with Leah Thomas, you know, get rid of the DEI, which a lot of schools are trying to and at the same time ducking, you know, naming them by different things. But, but the fastball was needed. The problem is, as you said at breakfast, it was the social stuff that Trump was going after. But you don't go after the social stuff. With social stuff, you go after it by going after the money.

• 1:32:15Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 1:32:16Speaker 02

  So Harvard's locked down for $9 billion of research funds. And my understanding is it's still locked down. Cornell's locked down for over a billion.

• 1:32:23Tucker Carlson?

  But nine, Harvard was getting $9 billion from the feds for research of various kinds. And it's on hold.

• 1:32:29Speaker 02

  And it's on hold. And the word cancel versus frozen, I was trying to figure it out. Columbia, I thought it was a cancel. Columbia got crushed. And then Columbia put on a memo that said canceled. Now, I don't know if that's because it's been canceled, but my, my understanding is the money's not flowing.

• 1:32:51Speaker 02

  Now, the problem is, as a trustee said to me, you know, if this goes into 2026, we're in a world of trouble. I said, if this goes into August, we're in a world of trouble. I've got colleagues with 15-person research groups that are all funded by these federal grants, and they do good science. They do good science. There's probably some crap in the humanities, but they suck about $10,000 of grant money out of the system to do that stupid thing. I don't know. And I don't even know if it's stupid. And there's no mechanism. So now, if you're getting your PhD, there's no one who can give you a postdoc. That's the next step. That step's broken. And so the system right now is

• 1:33:32Speaker 02

  flatlined. And I really wish they'd gotten rid of USAID, and you told me they didn't. They just moved it. Well, that's a problem. But I think the academic research system was working.

• 1:33:45Tucker Carlson?

  I think part of the problem, from a civilian perspective, are the endowments.

• 1:33:49Speaker 02

  Now, let me explain the endowments.

• 1:33:51Tucker Carlson?

  So, let me just complete the thought by saying, it's the no-tax part that I think drives some of us to want to sort of storm the campus with guns, because that's, everyone's getting, I mean, the private equity guys are taking all their income as interest, so they're paying half the rate. But for a normal person, you know, you're paying over half of everything you make to the government, and it's being spent on nonsense, or given to Ukraine. And then there are these giant hedge funds called university endowments that aren't paying any taxes. And I think that can really drive people bonkers, including me.

• 1:34:27Speaker 02

  Well, I understand. There are some subtleties of endowments. Again, it's not to say that you're not 100% correct, but I at least want to say to your listeners, so they understand what they're complaining about. First and foremost, there's supposedly rules where the universities are not supposed to be competing with the private sector. So, and they get around those. But if Cornell builds housing, is making money off the housing in town, that kind of breaks the rule, right? But they build dorms and things like that. So you're right about that. The endowments are a funny game. First and foremost,

• 1:35:13Speaker 02

  I looked this up last week, approximately 50% of all endowment spin off. So it spins off that revenue and Harvard's has been collecting since 1656.

• 1:35:28Speaker 02

  50% of the money spun off goes to financial aid, which means making college more affordable, admittedly not very affordable for a lot of people, but making it more affordable. So, so, so half of the money being spun off is going right back to education of the students. Another 20% subsidies for academic programs, which means paying for things that, that would have had to be paid for or we'd have to do without. And I would argue we got bloated. So there's things we should have done without. If you looked at the dining program now compared to what we, they have now, it's really unbelievable.

• 1:36:03Tucker Carlson?

  I'm not against good food. I'm against DEI administrators and administrators in general. Like college should be focused on professors.

• 1:36:10Speaker 02

  I agree with that. And that's where we should have gotten the fastball pass.

• 1:36:13Tucker Carlson?

  Did any of these schools have more tenure professors than they do administrators? I don't think so.

• 1:36:18Speaker 02

  The administrative bloat is a combination of all the problems that, that drive you nuts. And the fact that the, the interactions between the university and the, the feds and the states has gotten more complicated. So, so for example, uh, you need way more bean counters.

• 1:36:38Tucker Carlson?

  And grant writers and...

• 1:36:40Speaker 02

  Well, no, grant writers or me, they're us. The, the grants are being written by the faculty. And again, the DI, Michigan's DEI payroll is, was 93 million last time I read about it. That's a lot of money, right? But, but, but, um, but just when you get a federal grant, there's so many things you have to do. It used to, they ran it out of a shoebox. Here's your check, spend it wisely. You know, that's what, it's no longer like that. He, now it reached the absurd point where you're supposed to make statements about how you're going to save the whales and donate organs to Guatemalan orphans and things like that. And I think Trump's going to successfully get a lot of that crap out of there. He would save Cornell a fortune if he could get rid of all of DI.

• 1:37:23Speaker 02

  Now, I do think the original idea of affirmative action makes sense. It basically said, go find people who are being missed.

• 1:37:34Speaker 02

  Look into the dusty corners where you normally don't look and see if you find talent. Right? There's a famous chemist named Henry Gilman.

• 1:37:42Tucker Carlson?

  I thought the SAT was designed to do that.

• 1:37:44Speaker 02

  No, it turns out the SAT has problems now. And the reason it has problems is because when Kaplan got a hold of it, it, and they, they, they for profit coached kids on how to do well. And then they made it such that the SAT could be taken three times and you get to use only the one you like. All of a sudden, the cost of maximizing your score on the SAT became prohibitive. And so it's a legitimate argument that someone coming out of the hood

• 1:38:19Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 1:38:19Speaker 02

  cannot take the Kaplan course and take the SAT three times.

• 1:38:23Tucker Carlson?

  So, um.

• 1:38:23Speaker 02

  But you shouldn't get rid of it. You should just be aware of what it's telling you.

• 1:38:27Tucker Carlson?

  Would it be possible to design a corruption free screen for intelligence and, you know, initiative?

• 1:38:36Speaker 02

  Shut up racist.

• 1:38:39Tucker Carlson?

  No, but I mean, so the idea was that the SAT was supposed to democratize education. We're just going to locate.

• 1:38:46Speaker 02

  And discover kids who've got double eight hundreds who you wouldn't have spotted.

• 1:38:50Tucker Carlson?

  Exactly.

• 1:38:50Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:38:51Tucker Carlson?

  And actually have a child who got an eight hundred, couldn't get into college. So, um, so clearly it's like the system has gotten so corrupt. So, um, but, but the idea in Kaplan, you said corrupted it as well.

• 1:39:04Speaker 02

  Well, it, it, it, it kind of corrupted the SAT.

• 1:39:08Tucker Carlson?

  Right. That's what I'm saying. So.

• 1:39:09Speaker 02

  Now, the GRE, which is the next level is nowhere near as corrupted it because by then the students don't give a damn. They do, I'll take the GRE and they, so it's, it's more legit.

• 1:39:17Tucker Carlson?

  But is there, I mean, but the idea that of a colorblind, classblind, pure, you know, meritocracy test is, I mean, why give up on that?

• 1:39:29Speaker 02

  Here's what I think we should do. I used, I, I was graduate, uh, I was a graduate, director of graduate studies, which, which involved admission into our grad program for seven years, record.

• 1:39:43Speaker 02

  The only guy who held the four administrative positions in the chemistry department itself, that's pretty good for being the chemistry douchebag. And, and you learn about things. And I read undergraduate admissions on purpose for a number of years, because, and, and you read, read it. So I might read Manhattan, for example. And you learn about who's applying and stuff like that. And what, what I think you want to look for is a system where you see evidence that a kid overcame something. And it's not about color, although you could say non statistically, it's about color. Right. But a kid from the Ozarks, you know, J D Vance, who I find his origin story a

• 1:40:23Speaker 02

  little suspicious, I must admit. But, but, but, so we had a kid who applied and everything was sunshine and Skittles rainbows in his application. And one of his letter writers said, his mother died here, his father died here, he was raised by his neighbors, you know, and I'm going, and he didn't mention it?

• 1:40:40Tucker Carlson?

  I hope you let him in.

• 1:40:41Speaker 02

  Oh, my God, yes. You give me, in graduate admissions, I see some kid from Stanford with a, I see some kid from Stanford with 3.0, I didn't take them. Because a 3.0 is a kid who accepted a 3.0. You show me, I'll take a 4.0 from St. Mary's College of the Divinity. Because that kid said, here's the, they said, here's the highest you can get to. That kid got there. Right? MIT kids with lousy GPAs are lousy grad students, even though they're smarter than hell, but they're cocky. Now, it turns out, you show me a kid from Stanford with a 3.0 who played football, I take the kid in a heartbeat. You show me

• 1:41:22Speaker 02

  a kid from Stanford who, who, who, who is a 3.0, who is in, you know, who's, you know, brilliant violinist, I'll take that kid. My, here's my son, my son applies to Cornell for reasons you know, he was going to get in. But his resume, I had one son who was underachiever as a kid, who's now phenomenal. And the one who is a super achiever, what's super achieving? And we didn't push him, because it was a pain in the ass. We were driving all the time. All state orchestra, first violin.

• 1:42:00Speaker 02

  Gold medalist in the eight state regional gymnastics championship. Fifth in the nation equestrian. Played lacrosse. Got a resume better than that. So here's what happened. My older son, who could care less about school, just nothing. His teacher was a sweet kid, no attention. At one point I said to a teacher, I said, the only kids he's beaten are crack babies. And she kind of blew a snap bubble and then said, yeah. He's now phenomenally successful. He's a super dad. I'm so proud of the level of dad-ness that he is. He's the director of event management at the Council on Foreign Relations.

• 1:42:45Speaker 02

  After being the most underwhelming kid in high school, he grew up. He climbed Mount Stupid a little bit late. Fortunately, he was in a family that could help him get over it when the time came. The thing that we get credit for is not breaking him. Is not, is not forcing him into a mold that didn't fit. You know who he is? You know the book Ferdinand the Bull?

• 1:43:07Tucker Carlson?

  Of course.

• 1:43:08Speaker 02

  Child's story?

• 1:43:08Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:43:09Speaker 02

  That book wasn't for kids. That was for the parents. That was telling the parents, your kid is Ferdinand, maybe. My other one was Mike Mulligan's Steam Shovel.

• 1:43:20Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 1:43:21Speaker 02

  Right? Faster, the more people watched, the faster he went. Ironically, the overachiever got to Cornell and got lost. The underachiever got, just grew nicely in college. And now the, the younger one is now a professional after trying cubicle farming and all that crap that you get by being a business major at Cornell Hotel School. He's a professional violinist in Boston.

• 1:43:48Tucker Carlson?

  Better outcome.

• 1:43:49Speaker 02

  Better outcome. Bank of Dad's important because violinists in Boston don't make a lot of money. But, but I'm happy to support it because it's his soul. You know why he's a prof? You want neurobiology? My wife was flat on her back when she was pregnant and she put headphones against her stomach and played classical music when he was in the womb. I know prenatal development's important. By the time he's three years old, his friends are singing B I N G O and he's listening to orchestra pieces and he'd say, I like this part right here. And you'd hear the second violins come in there and you go, right there, I like that. And I'm going, holy shit, this kid's got an ear. He has an ear like you. He developed an ear.

• 1:44:28Tucker Carlson?

  From the womb.

• 1:44:31Speaker 02

  So don't do that to your womb. You'll have a musician in your family if you do that.

• 1:44:35Tucker Carlson?

  So I want to ask you here, since you mentioned the struggle, you know, the triumph, but also the struggle to pay for it because the economy doesn't support young people very well. Since you did call the financial collapse of 2008, it sounds like.

• 1:44:54Speaker 02

  In 2002.

• 1:44:55Tucker Carlson?

  In 2002. So you couldn't short, you couldn't get rich shorting anything.

• 1:44:59Speaker 02

  I shorted twice and it's shortings for fools and pros. And the Venn diagram of those two is almost that.

• 1:45:06Tucker Carlson?

  That's exactly right.

• 1:45:07Speaker 02

  That they're both.

• 1:45:08Tucker Carlson?

  I know both.

• 1:45:09Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:45:09Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah. Where are we now?

• 1:45:12Speaker 02

  We're in a catastrophic situation.

• 1:45:15Tucker Carlson?

  Catastrophe seems strong.

• 1:45:17Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, I think you can make arguments, the economy has a lot of problems and, and there's, there's a paradoxical problem with the economy. And that is you can go up to any 7-Eleven and they can't hire. They, there's help wanted ads. So it looks like an economy burning, burning hot. But if you look at the high end, there's layoffs going everywhere. So there's foreshadowing of, of real trouble coming.

• 1:45:42Tucker Carlson?

  So college graduates, even Ivy League graduates, humanities graduates, not engineers or chemists, but you know, the market, the business guy or whatever, they're having trouble getting jobs.

• 1:45:52Speaker 02

  The kind that they're trained for certainly.

• 1:45:54Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah. But there's just, I mean, I know a bunch of them and, but you see it in the numbers. Educated 22 year olds are having trouble getting jobs, but 7-Eleven can't hire.

• 1:46:04Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:46:05Tucker Carlson?

  So what, what is that?

• 1:46:06Speaker 02

  Well, so this is a normal sort of, it's a distorted version of, of I think a recession coming or in. Now, where it gets complicated is if you don't believe the inflation numbers, which I don't. And you've got Chapwood Index and Shadow Stats that give inflation numbers that are probably on average, six or seven percent higher than the official numbers. The official numbers are corrupted. And I don't want to go into it because it's technical, but

• 1:46:32Tucker Carlson?

  But the CPI is stupid.

• 1:46:34Speaker 02

  CPI is crap. Right.

• 1:46:35Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, I agree with that.

• 1:46:36Speaker 02

  Now, here's the problem. If the economy's been growing two and a half percent and the inflation numbers are underestimated by four, means we've been in a recession the whole way.

• 1:46:45Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, moving backwards.

• 1:46:46Speaker 02

  We're moving backward. And you say, well, that can't happen. The recession's last, you know, two quarters or whatever. And I go, no, the British Empire was in a recession for a century. Right? They just shrunk and shrunk and shrunk. And so, so no, you can be in, you can, you can be in a slow decline. So, so, but that's not what we're, that's not the catastrophe.

• 1:47:05Tucker Carlson?

  Recession means decline.

• 1:47:07Speaker 02

  Yeah. Actually, I think it's a stupid word because

• 1:47:10Tucker Carlson?

  I agree.

• 1:47:10Speaker 02

  It's like, you play golf?

• 1:47:12Tucker Carlson?

  No.

• 1:47:13Speaker 02

  Well, if you play golf and you, you go down into the sand trap, according to the definition of a recession, once you start climbing out, you're out. You ask a golfer if he's out of the sand trap because he's on the up slope of the trap, he's not.

• 1:47:26Tucker Carlson?

  No.

• 1:47:27Speaker 02

  So the fact that your economy's now growing again, if it's coming out of a hole, as far as I'm concerned, you're not out until you've gotten past that previous period.

• 1:47:35Tucker Carlson?

  So you're at par.

• 1:47:36Speaker 02

  Yeah. So you're at par. Right. Now, that's not the catastrophe because they happen all the time. And we've been able to either cover them or fake them or prevent them through very bad monetary

• 1:47:47Tucker Carlson?

  Monetary policy.

• 1:47:48Speaker 02

  Right. And what's bad? Pumping the stock market is just stupid. But, but, you know, private equity buys, private equity buys has bought up 80% of the hospitals, the healthcare. And what they do is they go in and they, they, they buy some organization. They strip it of its assets. They load it with debt. They pay themselves huge fees and bonuses. And then they sell the shell of a company, which is now effectively worthless, into the marketplace, like to pension funds, who are not smart enough to recognize that

• 1:48:29Speaker 02

  they just bought a piece of crap. And according to Gretchen Morgensen, a 47% bankruptcy rate.

• 1:48:39Speaker 02

  Now.

• 1:48:39Tucker Carlson?

  Post-sale.

• 1:48:40Speaker 02

  Post-sale. Now, as long as it's profitable to buy viable companies, destroy them, sell the shell and make money, monitor, money's too loose.

• 1:48:55Speaker 02

  Precious capital, if capital is of real value,

• 1:49:03Speaker 02

  it's a moat. So, a good businessman can get capital, bad businessman can't. The fact that BlackRock could get, buy, single-family dwellings, which is a terrible business, you really can't make money unless you can, unless there's a housing boom and you leverage up to hell. The fact that they could get it for, at an interest rate of 0.15%,

• 1:49:29Speaker 02

  is a highly flawed system. And that's where the inventory went after 07 to 09. They got bought up by these guys who could lever up and then charge rents to people. So, they basically scoop, scoop up the housing market.

• 1:49:42Tucker Carlson?

  Now, with free, with free money?

• 1:49:44Speaker 02

  With free money, kind of free money, unlike, you know, credit cards, which are 25%, right?

• 1:49:51Tucker Carlson?

  And not just free, I mean, if, once you factor in inflation.

• 1:49:54Speaker 02

  It's, it's a gift. Yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's profitable money.

• 1:49:58Tucker Carlson?

  Literally, just taking the loan is profitable?

• 1:50:00Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:50:01Tucker Carlson?

  You don't have to do anything with it?

• 1:50:02Speaker 02

  Yes, yes.

• 1:50:02Tucker Carlson?

  Right, yeah.

• 1:50:03Speaker 02

  So, so here, here's what happened. Somehow, the market has ceased to respond. And the reason the market's important is because, is because of the wealth effect. And that is that if you own equities, you own a house and they're soaring in price, your spending habits change. You, you, you, I'm having a great year, for example. So, when the bank of dad has to provide some liquidity to the children, I feel okay about it, right?

• 1:50:38Speaker 02

  The, the problem is, is that it's a false wealth. It's not real wealth. It's a false wealth. So, what happened? Well, I'm getting tired of seeing these. I see four-year plots of the equity market and they make various comparisons. I go, don't go back four years. Don't go back 40 years. Go back 120 years. So, I follow about 25 metrics of valuation.

• 1:51:02Speaker 02

  Valuation is inherently a price of the market relative to something it ought to track, whether it's the earnings, the revenues, the book value, a thing called Tobin's Q, the GDP, which is a fictional number, as I've heard you recently say, but I follow about 25 of them. So you can kind of track where the markets have gotten expensive relative to the thing it ought to track. Now, around 1981, the markets were at the cheapest valuation arguably in history. Inflation was scaring everyone, which is why they were cheap.

• 1:51:45Speaker 02

  It turns out that the boomers were just hitting the workforce. So demographics was a huge tailwind starting around then. And most economists agree demographics is huge. Now, I'm disingenuous in that I quote economists selectively. In the next sentence, I'll probably say something horrible about them. And so I'm obviously cherry picking my data, but economists like demographics. So the boomers hit the workplace. So it was almost guaranteed. I think Reagan was not important. I think, I think he did some very important things, but I think whoever got to be president was going to be at the beginning of a boom. It turns out that China was coming out of the dark ages.

• 1:52:27Speaker 02

  They started selling labor at slave wages. They were so desperate for capital when they sent their leader, don't make me pronounce his name, to the United Nations when he first started opening up.

• 1:52:41Tucker Carlson?

  Was it Deng Xiaoping?

• 1:52:43Speaker 02

  Yes. And they had to scrounge to get the money to send him. I mean, they really didn't have any foreign capital. And so I remember when China said, we're going to let our workers keep some of their profits. And it's like, whoa. Russia had, Soviet Union hadn't collapsed, but they were in trouble. So they were obviously cranking a resource base as hard as they could. And we had our guys in there helping them and stuff like that. And interest rates were at all time highs.

• 1:53:16Speaker 02

  And if you read a 1999 article by Buffett, who I think is a hoser, I think he's much more of a stock jobber, much more of a conniver than he is. He loves to be the mafia don walking around in a bathrobe saying, I'm harmless. He is not harmless. When, when, when, when we're in a bottom, he breaks all sorts of laws. They do all sorts of insider crap to bail the system out. But he pretends to just like Dairy Queen and Coca-Cola, whatever. He wrote an article in 99 that said, you want to understand secular, big, long, bull versus bear markets, it's all interest rates. He said, it's not GDP. He said, from 67 to 81, everything sucked. It treaded water, not accounting for inflation, and the markets

• 1:53:58Speaker 02

  dropped 75% accounting for inflation. So it was a horrible period. He said, the GDP grew faster during that period than from 81 to 99. But interest rates from 67 to 81 went up, not ironically. From 81 to 99, they went down. So we started in 81 with interest rates in the high teens. And over the next 40 years, they dropped to zero. That is absolutely the story. So when interest rates are dropping, risk assets go up.

• 1:54:31Tucker Carlson?

  Yep.

• 1:54:32Speaker 02

  Because they're competing against it as they get cheaper. So bottom line is that we just enjoyed 40 year recency bias.

• 1:54:40Tucker Carlson?

  Can you just explain that principle right there? You said, as interest rates drop, risk assets go up.

• 1:54:46Speaker 02

  Or are you going to buy shares of a stock that, by the way, has treated you like crap over the previous 14 years, or a bond that pays you 17%?

• 1:54:54Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 1:54:55Speaker 02

  Right? So the bonds become less, the fixed income becomes less and less attractive steadily for 40 years. Now, take the Case-Shiller-PE, which is, which is just one of the metrics, but I happen to like it. It's a kind of an averaged earnings, price earnings ratio. It also doesn't allow you to cheat because it doesn't use the immediate, and forward PEs are stupid, but Case-Shiller averages, so I like it. If you take the Case-Shiller from 1880 to 1990, it just channels. It just, it's a valuation metric, and it just goes up and down and up and down, and that's what it should do. It responds to things, but it stays in a channel. It's flat. Valuation metrics shouldn't trend.

• 1:55:38Speaker 02

  They should trend for a while, but then they should regress to the mean unless you can, someone can give me an argument why they should trend. And I don't think there is one. And I've tried to find one. And then in 1990, they just kind of started to take off. And the Case Shiller, so the Case Shiller P, the Case Shiller P averaged around 12, 13% for 110 years. Then around 1990, oddly, 1994, in every metric is when things left. I think it was because of a bond problem or something. I haven't been able to quite figure out why. But the valuations went up. Now, here's the problem with valuations going up. And now they're astronomical. So the Case Shiller P averaged 13, which meant it was

• 1:56:19Speaker 02

  priced to return about 8% a year. Right? If you think of it as a gas station, and you're paying, you know, 13 to 1 earnings, you're getting about 8%. And if it keeps pumping gas every year, you get about 13%. It is now 38. It's way above where it should be. It's a factor of 3, 200%. Now, if you assume it's never going to regress to the mean, now you're accepting, crudely speaking, a 2.5% return, not an 8. Now, if you're okay

• 1:57:00Speaker 02

  with 2.5%, that's fine. But by the way, most pensioners, most boomers are not planning on 2.5%. No, they're not. Right. Now, if it regresses to the mean, it's a 70% correction, assuming, if it's fast, assuming, nothing else changes. No damage to the economy, you know, all the bad things that happen when you lose 70% off the equity market, which is a questionable assumption. Another way to think about it, which I think is much clearer, is if you say, look, we'll just grow our way. I think it go up or down, up and down. You don't worry about the path. You say, if we grow to 2.5% a year, which I just questioned as being

• 1:57:42Speaker 02

  valid, but let's assume it's valid. If we grow to 2.5% a year, to get back to historical average of 13, will take 45 years. Now, here's the thing, I made no assumptions about good news, bad news. I assumed it's going to be like the 20th century.

• 1:58:00Speaker 02

  2.5% a year, it'll be 45 years from now. I don't care what path you follow. If we are at the average case yield or PE and the economy grew 2.5% a year, the equity markets will have returned capital gains zero.

• 1:58:19Speaker 02

  And it doesn't matter if we crash and spike. It doesn't matter, you know, if we get to, you know, Dow 40,000, 50,000, 60,000. 45 years from now, if we're at the mean, we will have earned nothing. Now you say, well, that would never happen. You go, well, if you own the 06, the 1906 high,

• 1:58:41Speaker 02

  you were even after something like 40 years. I don't ask from if you own-

• 1:58:48Tucker Carlson?

  You're even after 40 years.

• 1:58:50Speaker 02

  If you buy, if you own the top.

• 1:58:52Tucker Carlson?

  Yep.

• 1:58:53Speaker 02

  People always say, well, how long did it take to get back to the top? That's the favorite question. You go, oh, you know, it took 22 years. Oh, it took 15 years. Oh, it took. I like to ask the question, no, no, no, not how long it took to get from the top back to even.

• 1:59:08Speaker 02

  How long did it take to go from that top to the last time that that price was attained, adjusted for inflation?

• 1:59:19Speaker 02

  And those can go anywhere from 40 to 75 years. All you have to do is look at inflation adjusted S and P and draw a line from a top across the S and P and you will find that most of them break even in the mid 80s, no matter what year they started.

• 1:59:35Tucker Carlson?

  So you're just answering the question, what the hell is going on with land prices and asset prices?

• 1:59:42Speaker 02

  Everything. Everything's mispriced.

• 1:59:45Tucker Carlson?

  But is it mispriced? I mean, if I've got excess money, you know, and I need to store it somewhere and I'm listening to you, I'm like, oh, I think I'm going to buy something a little less volatile, a little more real.

• 2:00:00Speaker 02

  Like real estate.

• 2:00:02Tucker Carlson?

  Exactly.

• 2:00:03Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 2:00:05Speaker 02

  The first time, and I know this drives you bananas, the first time home buyers not too many decades ago were on average about 30 years old.

• 2:00:14Tucker Carlson?

  Yep.

• 2:00:15Speaker 02

  I just read, what's the fact? I don't know, 56 now.

• 2:00:20Speaker 02

  First time home buyers, 56.

• 2:00:21Tucker Carlson?

  That's been a massive consequences.

• 2:00:23Speaker 02

  Do you want to buy, do you want to buy that into that market? That somehow seems like it has to regress because you can't have people going 56 years without owning a house. Right? You said, you personally, I think it was in Turning Point USA, you went absolutely nonstop about how you can worry about Ukraine, but we've got guys, we've got young adults who can't raise families and houses.

• 2:00:53Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah. And, and it, it creates a very scary political environment where people don't own anything and therefore have nothing to lose and no future.

• 2:01:01Speaker 02

  Right. Well, here's an interesting ADHD moment.

• 2:01:07Speaker 02

  Monogamy versus polygamy. And this will sound random, but it'll get you to the same.

• 2:01:12Tucker Carlson?

  No, it's a core, it's a core question, actually. These are the building blocks of the West.

• 2:01:15Speaker 02

  Turns out, polygamy, monogamy is viewed as favoring women.

• 2:01:21Speaker 02

  That turns out to be backwards.

• 2:01:25Speaker 02

  And it's a simple math. Imagine there's a hundred people ranked one to a hundred. Number one hundred is Mr. Big Cheese. And on the women's side, hottest chick on the planet. Right? Monogamy says number one would marry number one, number two would marry number two in the perfect system. So think of it as just a very simple model. And that what you can't do is if you're at the bottom of the chain, marry up.

• 2:01:50Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 2:01:51Speaker 02

  If you do, then someone else gets pushed down.

• 2:01:53Tucker Carlson?

  Of course.

• 2:01:54Speaker 02

  Right? So it would be of the interest of the girl working 7-Eleven. To be Jeff Bezos' second wife.

• 2:02:04Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, I think that happened.

• 2:02:05Speaker 02

  And so, so, so in fact, you can upgrade your game. And, and, you know, Elon, right? I mean, the guy's a reproduction machine, right? Women are signing off on it because it's better to be with a guy worth that kind of money than broke. Right? And, and so it turns out that you say, well, then why did cultural evolution lead to monogamy? And the answer is, is because it minimizes violence.

• 2:02:36Tucker Carlson?

  Right.

• 2:02:37Speaker 02

  It's for the men.

• 2:02:39Tucker Carlson?

  Of course.

• 2:02:40Speaker 02

  So they don't fight.

• 2:02:42Tucker Carlson?

  Well, yeah, because in a polygamous system, all the high status males scoop up all the women.

• 2:02:46Speaker 02

  Well, now in a situation where men can't provide the home for their families and stuff like that. And so we're gonna fight.

• 2:02:54Tucker Carlson?

  I've noticed.

• 2:02:55Speaker 02

  I've noticed that too. And so now here's the deal. Let's say we're, I'm right, we're the market top. And if, if I'm not, I think we're close. One of the things that my peers who were paranoid as hell about this, some very smart guys, they tend not to put numbers on it. I'm one of the few who puts numbers on it. There's, there's a couple others who do, but they just say, oh, the evaluations are ridiculous. But no one wants to be on record that we're gonna be, to say it's catastrophically overpriced. Whatever correction you get, you say, see, I told you. I'm saying 200% overpriced. Now, how do you get out of overvaluation? You can inflate your way out.

• 2:03:36Tucker Carlson?

  No.

• 2:03:37Speaker 02

  Because the numerator, the price, and the denominator, the thing it's supposed to track, both are influenced by inflation. So as your price goes up because of inflation, your revenues go up because of inflation. You're still 200% over historical average valuation. And so you can't inflate away an overvaluation.

• 2:04:00Tucker Carlson?

  So what, I mean, is this just a gravity scenario where ultimately it has to revert to its actual value?

• 2:04:06Speaker 02

  Best model I have, and they never work because it's always one of these, something will be creatively different, but the best model is the Nikkei. Japan hit a high in 89. It briefly got back to that 35 years later. It's actually below that, I think, if I remember correctly. Inflation adjusts for that guaranteed.

• 2:04:26Tucker Carlson?

  Yes, that's right.

• 2:04:28Speaker 02

  I asked someone during a podcast, if you can do this spreadsheet for me, I'd love to get it. Someone did it. I said, what if you started buying the Nikkei at the top? Not own the Nikkei. If you own the Nikkei at the top, you're dead meat. You died broke. But what if you, what if you started buying? 22-year-old graduate of Tokyo University. You started putting yen into the Nikkei in 1989. How long, if you averaged, ended it take you to break even? It's around two decades. Starting with zero in the Nikkei. So I was on a podcast with George Noval, Twitter space, actually. He was Peter Lynch's right-hand man. And he said, well, you could, I said, I think the markets will be uninvestable. He said, oh, you could do this and this. And I said, the Nikkei?

• 2:05:13Speaker 02

  And he said, oh, you could short. I said, no, you couldn't. You can't short a market that takes 20 years to find a bottom. You can short a market like in 07 to 09.

• 2:05:23Tucker Carlson?

  Right, right, right. A volatile market.

• 2:05:25Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 2:05:26Tucker Carlson?

  You can't, a market in inexorable decline can't be short.

• 2:05:28Speaker 02

  So for, in a top, aren't tops supposed to be euphoric? Remember the dot com?

• 2:05:34Tucker Carlson?

  Oh, yes.

• 2:05:35Speaker 02

  The world was changing, the nifty 50, you know?

• 2:05:39Tucker Carlson?

  Webvan and eToys and Pets.com.

• 2:05:42Speaker 02

  The roaring 20s, you know, sustainable prosperity. We are supposed to be true believers that the world is wonderful. Do you sense much of the population thinks the world's wonderful?

• 2:05:52Tucker Carlson?

  I don't, I don't sense that. And all around us are signs of...

• 2:05:56Speaker 02

  What's it gonna look like when 70% gets clipped off this market?

• 2:06:01Tucker Carlson?

  So I'm immediately going into prepper survival mode. Um, what, where are the enduring safe stores of value?

• 2:06:08Speaker 02

  I, I don't, you can't answer that. I, I bought gold at around two seventy an ounce.

• 2:06:15Tucker Carlson?

  Two hundred and seventy?

• 2:06:16Speaker 02

  Two hundred and seventy.

• 2:06:18Tucker Carlson?

  Hope you bought a lot of it.

• 2:06:19Speaker 02

  I did, but it's worth a lot more now.

• 2:06:22Tucker Carlson?

  Do you think?

• 2:06:23Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:06:25Tucker Carlson?

  What spot price did you know?

• 2:06:27Speaker 02

  Ballpark thirty three hundred.

• 2:06:28Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 2:06:29Speaker 02

  I bought silver. I bought gold below two seventy. I'll tell you why. Cause my first purchases were actually in a close on mutual fund that was trading twenty seven percent below net asset valuation. Cause no, people say, oh, it was easy to buy back then. It was cheap. I said, it was cheap because five of us wanted it.

• 2:06:45Tucker Carlson?

  Right. Well, of course.

• 2:06:46Speaker 02

  Right. And by the way, the top, some Tuesday afternoon at two oh three PM, we will hit a top that will be decades later to be returned to potentially. The top is the point of maximum optimism, which paradoxically is the moment in time where your justification for optimism is zero. The bottom is the same thing in reverse.

• 2:07:11Tucker Carlson?

  Of course.

• 2:07:12Speaker 02

  So, so we're not happy now.

• 2:07:14Tucker Carlson?

  You're saying the herd's not always right? Is that what you're saying?

• 2:07:16Speaker 02

  I'm told.

• 2:07:18Speaker 02

  So.

• 2:07:18Tucker Carlson?

  So let's hold on. Let's just go back to gold for a second. So you buy.

• 2:07:22Speaker 02

  I bought gold net at around two ten.

• 2:07:25Tucker Carlson?

  Come on.

• 2:07:26Speaker 02

  Well, I bought it twenty eight percent below NAV when it was.

• 2:07:29Tucker Carlson?

  Physical delivery?

• 2:07:30Speaker 02

  Now, now that was not physical, but then I started buying. Here's what I did. I bought gold from the local coin dealer.

• 2:07:36Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 2:07:37Speaker 02

  And I'd say, when you get ounces, I'll pay cash. And he sold it to me at spot.

• 2:07:43Speaker 02

  And, and he'd call and say, I got three ounces in. I'd go to the bank. I'd get out nine hundred dollars, right? And I'd buy the gold from him. Cash. I'd buy silver from him. Cash. I could buy silver eagles at spot. Now you go on eBay. Holy shit. Those things are like 10 bucks above spot.

• 2:08:02Speaker 02

  And, and it was for, for ballpark, four dollars an ounce. And, and then I remember it was at four fifty seven and I was buying from him. And he said, don't you think there's a top? He knew I was gonna buy it. He said, don't you think there's a top?

• 2:08:17Tucker Carlson?

  Four hundred and fifty. Seven dollars an ounce for gold.

• 2:08:20Speaker 02

  There's like oh, three or something. I don't know. And, and I said, how many people are buying gold from you? He said, oh, about four. And I said, and the other three are my friends, aren't they? He said, yeah. And I said, does that sound like a mania to you? And, uh, and so, um, here's the thing I've been on. I, I, I'm a big fan of energy, but I think when the selling starts, everything sells. You'll be selling your children. You'll be selling, right? Everything sells. So I think the idea of trying to get into any risk asset is so dangerous. I'll take 4% on a treasury, two-year treasury. Some people think, you know, I'll lock it up for two years. Oh, that'll save me. I won't dip buy after six months.

• 2:09:02Tucker Carlson?

  So at what price would you buy gold again?

• 2:09:05Speaker 02

  Well, I've got so much I don't need anymore. If I didn't own any, I'd buy it now. But the Bitcoin guys would say, buy Bitcoin at 117,000. I turned it down at 10. Um, I wish I'd bought it. I would have sold it at 50 and spent the proceeds on therapy.

• 2:09:20Tucker Carlson?

  Well, why on therapy?

• 2:09:22Speaker 02

  Because I would have sold it at 50.

• 2:09:24Tucker Carlson?

  Right. Good point.

• 2:09:25Speaker 02

  And I know I would have. I know I would have.

• 2:09:28Tucker Carlson?

  You don't, you don't believe in crypto?

• 2:09:30Speaker 02

  I don't think so. I, the crypto community, I am their number one target. They say you are a hodler. And I won't buy it. And the reason is because I believe that, um, several layers. One is that, um, I believe that, that the authorities are not going to let crypto take over.

• 2:09:47Tucker Carlson?

  Of course not.

• 2:09:48Speaker 02

  And, and by the way, that means that

• 2:09:50Tucker Carlson?

  They're going to lose total control over society?

• 2:09:52Speaker 02

  That's right.

• 2:09:52Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, I don't think so.

• 2:09:53Speaker 02

  You think the Rockefellers, the Rothschilds are going to hand it over to Max Kaiser and Michael Saylor? I don't think so.

• 2:09:59Tucker Carlson?

  Oh, you don't, you don't think that's

• 2:10:00Speaker 02

  Here's what I think it actually is. You know, the first paper on crypto was written by three NSA guys.

• 2:10:04Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 2:10:05Speaker 02

  That means I think if I were smart and I were going to bring in central bank digital currency, which is an authoritarian nightmare, I would do it the way they did. I'd release the crypto. I'd have guys pumping it. I'd have guys supporting it. I'd let them debug the networks and the kinks and the, and acclimate people to it. And then I'd say, okay, it was fun. We'll take it from here.

• 2:10:34Tucker Carlson?

  And in the process, of course, you acclimate people to this new

• 2:10:38Speaker 02

  Digital world.

• 2:10:38Tucker Carlson?

  New kind of commerce. Yeah, exactly. No, that's and I get rid of the ATMs and I would make airport convenience stores credit card only. And I would do all that stuff to change people's habits.

• 2:10:49Speaker 02

  Cash is liberty.

• 2:10:50Tucker Carlson?

  Of course, I couldn't agree more. So you just have too much gold. You just don't want any more gold.

• 2:10:56Speaker 02

  I just, no, no, it's I'm.

• 2:10:59Tucker Carlson?

  What about real estate right now?

• 2:11:00Speaker 02

  I'm long, I own a nice house. I'm long real estate by owning that house. I wouldn't buy real estate as a speculation. If I, if you put a gun to my head, I'd say maybe farmland. But that's been getting scooped up. That's a pretty trite narrative now.

• 2:11:16Tucker Carlson?

  Big time. Well, I follow that because I'm interested. And I mean, it's turning for just crazy numbers an acre and that.

• 2:11:24Speaker 02

  Well, that's the problem.

• 2:11:25Tucker Carlson?

  That's what I'm saying. So.

• 2:11:26Speaker 02

  So here's what I, here's what I watched for years and then jumped in and it's a problem. The modern market, I bought gold steadily from 99 through about 03. And then I bought some more when it was around 1,200 in the teens. I said, Okay, it's kind of flattened out. I'm going to get some more. So around bought it around $1,200 and maybe 2016 or something. And but the modern markets don't wait. If you get a good idea and social media stuff, it will close up that gap so fast you want to hit you. So I'm bullish on energy long term, energy equities and stuff, but I think they're going to sell before they become a good buy. And so I just can't commit a lot of money to the energy, even though

• 2:12:09Speaker 02

  I think I have some mutual funds on uranium based investments, which I think we got to go to. And now it looks like we are. I actually think AI is not demanding nuclear energy. I think AI is being used as a Trojan horse to bring in nuclear energy, which I support.

• 2:12:28Speaker 02

  I think they're using the buzz of AI to say, now let's get the nukes going. People say, yeah, nukes, we need it for the AI. We've needed nukes. It was the obvious next thing to go to. Platinum. For years I watched platinum, owned so little platinum that if it went to zero, I wouldn't even notice. I mean trivial, trivial amount. And, and I've been watching, it's been flat. I mean, flat as in like a flat line, not moving away from $900 an ounce by a few dollars flat for 10 years after dropping. And I go, what's the platinum story? Well, the platinum story is, I don't trade. I don't trade at all. If I buy it, I'm buying it saying, look, I'm hanging on to it.

• 2:13:13Speaker 02

  If it goes down, I don't trade. The platinum story is, is I don't believe in the EV. I don't think it's a good technology. I think it'll be here, but I don't think it's going to take over the world. I think the hybrids are going to take over the world.

• 2:13:27Tucker Carlson?

  Well, they make sense. They make inherent sense.

• 2:13:29Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. They're more efficient. They use more platinum than EV, than internal combustion engines. Because, because their catalytic converters burn colder, so they need more platinum. Now, here's where it gets real interesting. The platinum miners are in Russia and South Africa. Russia will therefore have control. South Africa could become a failed state so fast, you don't know what hit you, right? More to the point, and again, trying to get real facts on this stuff, but, but the above ground platinum supply, the available platinum supply is something like $3 billion,

• 2:14:09Speaker 02

  which is a, something a medium sized hedge fund could buy at current prices. It's been in deficit production for at least four years.

• 2:14:18Tucker Carlson?

  What does deficit production mean?

• 2:14:20Speaker 02

  Means that we're consuming more per year than the miners are producing.

• 2:14:23Tucker Carlson?

  Oh gosh, okay.

• 2:14:24Speaker 02

  Based on the rate of deficit production, that the above ground supply will be gone within about a year.

• 2:14:33Tucker Carlson?

  So there's no more platinum?

• 2:14:35Speaker 02

  Arguably. We could go to potentially palladium, but you know, whatever. Platinum has not gone through a meme phase. So my, a little bit of trade in me says that meme phase could get spectacular. Platinum could go to 20,000.

• 2:14:46Tucker Carlson?

  Because it has industrial uses.

• 2:14:48Speaker 02

  Right.

• 2:14:49Tucker Carlson?

  You know, it seems kind of natural.

• 2:14:50Speaker 02

  So, so I decided, I was, so I reached out to some technical analysts who draw the squiggles on the, on the curves. And I make, I, I'm sarcastically occasionally commenting about technical analysis, but I can't do it or don't believe in it or whatever. But I asked a few, I said, look at this plot. Where would you start getting excited? Cause it's been flat for 10 years. I don't need to put money in and have it sit there for 10 years more. And a few gave me opinions about what price. I kind of formulated an opinion where I had to start and then hit. Now, instead of buying it, you know, slowly, I said, in the modern era, you gotta move quick. So I started hitting the buy button. And I'm still not, I face a

• 2:15:33Speaker 02

  boomer dilemma. The boomer dilemma is, the good news is, my net worth is good enough. If I don't screw up, I'm fine. I mean, I could retire today, not earn another penny. Fine. I want to leave money to my kids. I will be able to.

• 2:15:50Speaker 02

  The paradox is that to commit to an asset requires committing a percentage that's not stupid. If you commit 0.01% of your assets to it, it's not going to make a difference no matter what happens. So if you say, well, 5%. When I look at the quantity of money I have to spend to commit 5%, it seems huge. But it's only 5%. And so as a consequence, I go, look, if it went, if it went to zero tomorrow, I'd have a bad day. I'd lose 5% of my assets. But it would be too much money. So, so I'm fighting this bias about how many dollars

• 2:16:35Speaker 02

  it takes to get to us.

• 2:16:38Tucker Carlson?

  I get it. So let me ask you just a wrap up question, which is given your description of where we are, and you haven't even mentioned what could be a debt crisis when people stop buying our debt or slow down. But there are all kinds of things to worry about that are seem imminent. How does the average person respond?

• 2:16:59Speaker 02

  They don't have any money anyways.

• 2:17:01Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah, fair.

• 2:17:02Speaker 02

  I mean, the average person has no money.

• 2:17:06Tucker Carlson?

  So.

• 2:17:08Speaker 02

  So how does the five percentile boomer respond?

• 2:17:11Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah.

• 2:17:12Speaker 02

  Well, years ago, I did an analysis on the five percentile boomer. This is how bad it is. This is years ago, actually. And it actually got vetted by Stephen Roach, who's executive director of Morgan Stanley. He looked at my numbers and said, actually, you've overestimated something. You should be more conservative. The five, I invented five percentile guy. At that time, he was worth $1.1 million. He was earning $156,000 a year. You also know, he's not 22 years old. He's probably a boomer, because it takes a while to get to five percentile. At a reasonable rate of withdrawal from a retirement account, Mr. Five percentile guy, who is, has to be living the American dream, could take about $48,000 out.

• 2:17:58Tucker Carlson?

  Annually?

• 2:17:59Speaker 02

  Annually. Without risking going broke.

• 2:18:06Speaker 02

  And you know what? They don't know how to live on 48,000.

• 2:18:08Tucker Carlson?

  No.

• 2:18:09Speaker 02

  And they might have other assets. This is a complicated analysis, but that's a scary number.

• 2:18:14Tucker Carlson?

  For a modern life, that's a.

• 2:18:15Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, but the other thing is if he knew how to live on 30, $48,000, he'd have more than 1.1 million.

• 2:18:21Tucker Carlson?

  Good point.

• 2:18:22Speaker 02

  And so, so we've got a whole generation that has got expectations that are just off the chart distorted. And it's not because of a five year or 10 year recency bias. It's a 40 year recency bias. It's 1981. Let me finish that story. From 1981, the valuation, which should not trend, compounded annually 4% a year.

• 2:18:51Speaker 02

  What happens over the next 40 years when it compounds negative 4% a year to get to cheap again? Now you say, well, that'll never happen. I go, of course it'll happen. Show me an asset class that got overpriced. It didn't become cheap again.

• 2:19:06Tucker Carlson?

  Well, if you believe in markets, that's just by definition going to happen.

• 2:19:09Speaker 02

  Right. And if there's a way to fake it so it doesn't happen, then it means you're just deluding as to what actually happened. You're not getting a reality.

• 2:19:15Tucker Carlson?

  Right, right.

• 2:19:16Speaker 02

  And so the bottom line is, is that the boomer demographic, almost by definition, was going to generate a bubble, a big mother bubble because of the demographics. Now, I was telling you about how I was reading my old write-ups from like 13, 14, 15. I make a compelling case that, that the markets were crazy. How do I do it? I use numbers, I use stats, and I use quotes from the most famous money guys in the world, you know, Paul Tudor Jones, Stan Druckenmiller, you name it. These are not lightweights, saying these markets are insanely overvalued in 2015. What has happened since then? Straight up.

• 2:19:57Tucker Carlson?

  Oh, for sure.

• 2:19:59Speaker 02

  Example, Apple, tenfold gain on a growth in revenues of 50%. 95%, 95% correction brings that back down. Microsoft, 150% gain in revenues, tenfold gain. Doesn't make mathematical sense. Let's go to Nvidia. There is the winner, $4 trillion of market cap being run by a guy who has a very sketchy past. 25-fold gain in revenues. You go, now we're talking 250-fold gain in market cap.

• 2:20:44Tucker Carlson?

  Yeah. So that's the problem right there.

• 2:20:45Speaker 02

  90% correction takes you back to 2015. Do you remember 2015 being depressed? I don't. Stan Druckenmiller didn't think so. Howard Marks didn't think so. All these guys who were considered legends thought the markets were insanely overpriced in 15. And it's been nothing but up.

• 2:21:08Speaker 02

  And that will end. I don't know when.

• 2:21:11Tucker Carlson?

  And you think that all asset classes are tied to that?

• 2:21:15Speaker 02

  I can't say all because that means 100%, but I, if I found something that I thought was dirt cheap, I'm glad I own the gold from as cheap as I did because, because when it goes down, I go,

• 2:21:31Speaker 02

  I'm still up 15 fold or something, right? So it makes it easier. Buying gold now from scratch would be harder. It would be that, you know, the number of dollars to get the percent position, that sort of thing. And I think the debt problem is global. If you actually look at the metrics for the growth in the global debt relative to global GDP, the entire world has become priced much more than 10 years ago relative to what the world produces. So what's a global debt crisis? That's the question. You say, well, there's, you got lenders and borrowers. It's a zero sum game. No, it's not.

• 2:22:12Tucker Carlson?

  I know.

• 2:22:13Speaker 02

  A global debt crisis is when the entire world thinks they're going to get shit that the world can't produce. And the way you think of how to create one artificial Gedanken experiment, let's say the leaders of the world got together and said, look, let's just solve this problem. Let's guarantee healthcare to all our citizens. Let's guarantee their pension, all our citizens. Problem solved. They go, well, but you didn't in any way, shape or form, increase the ability to produce wealth. So you now have obligations for which you haven't a clue how you're going to pay for them. Who's going to do it? We're going to have the Chinese delivering Chinese food to our doors still? I don't think so. We're going to be delivering food to the Chinese.

• 2:22:56Speaker 02

  So, so everything will regress. 40 year recency bias says it won't. It will.

• 2:23:04Tucker Carlson?

  On that dark note, I'm just picturing myself showing up at a doorstep in Beijing with some Kung Pao chicken.

• 2:23:11Speaker 02

  Hoping for a tip. I can see you now, you turn the scanner around and shove the 25% tip in the guy's face.

• 2:23:21Tucker Carlson?

  Professor, thank you. I hope this doesn't get you fired. I hope you'll come back.

• 2:23:25Speaker 02

  I, anytime you call, I'm in the car.

• 2:23:27Tucker Carlson?

  Thank you.

• 2:23:32Tucker Carlson?

  We want to thank you for watching us on Spotify, a company that we use every day. We know the people who run it, good people. While you're here, do us a favor. Hit, follow, and tap the bell so you never miss an episode. We have real conversations, news, things that actually matter. Telling the truth always. You will not miss it if you follow us on Spotify and hit the bell. We appreciate it. Thanks for watching.