Pod Insights The Vergecast Tech in 2025: who's in and who's out About this episode For the second episode in our two-part 2025 preview, Nilay and David are once again joined by Wall Street Journal columnist (and friend of The Verge) Joanna Stern to talk about what will, and won't, happen in tech next year. This time, David joins us after a quick jaunt to the end of next year, and relays a bunch of things that happened in tech in 2025. But some of them are lies. Joanna and Nilay have to decide which things really will happen next year, and which won't. As always, the hosts get points for good guesses and negative points for bad ones. And once we're all in late 2025, we'll declare a winner.
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Transcript 10,855 words · 7 speakers
Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:02 David Pierce? Welcome to The Vergecast, the flagship podcast of low stakes time travel. I'm your friend David Pierce and I am sitting here doing my New Year's resolutions. I discovered a long time ago that if I do my New Year's resolutions, like on December 29th, or more likely like January 17th, they don't actually get done. Or I'm just tired and so my ambitions are like, go outside once this year. And so my goal now is to find a day, usually in December, where I'm more present, more active, feeling better, feeling more ambitious, and that's when I do some real goal setting. And I try to think of it like goal setting, not resolutions. I've also learned that I should make them very small and very actionable. So like a couple of years ago, my goal was to read one page of a book every single day,
0:45 David Pierce? just as a way to kickstart some of that energy again. And it was such a small thing that I would feel guilty not doing it. So I actually did it every day that year because it's only one page. But the idea is when you read one page, you read more than one page. And then all of a sudden, you're reading a lot more in a way that feels less sort of over your head than the idea of like, I'm going to read 50 books this year. And I read more than 50 books that year. Perfect strategy, absolutely no notes. Anyway, I will share my tech resolutions at some point, by the way. I've done that before and people have said they like it, just having some ideas about how I want to use tech better next year. So I'll share those, but that's for another episode. Still got to figure some of those out. Use my phone less didn't work, so we're going to try some new things.
1:30 David Pierce? Today, we're doing the second episode in our series, previewing 2025. Like we said last week, 2025 is going to be a big year. There's regulation stuff happening. There's a new administration coming in in the US. There's questions about the Fediverse. There's questions about AI. Is all of this going to amount to like the next big thing in technology or not? I think 2025 is going to be the year that either things change or they don't. And we're going to find out in some really interesting ways with pretty high stakes. Last week, I had Neelai Patel and Joanna Stern on and they just ran through some predictions. We had mild, medium and spicy predictions. We talked about them all. We agreed or disagreed. It was a lot of fun. I think I've figured out the points system. We'll lay that out at some point. We got 12 months to figure it out.
2:15 David Pierce? We'll come back to it. For this episode, we're going to do something slightly different. So I asked all of you to give me basically things that either will or won't happen in 2025. We will land on Mars. Don't know yet, by the end of 2025, we'll know the answer. Will there be a new CEO of Google? Don't know. We'll know by the end of 2025. So these things that are kind of either going to happen or not going to happen. I made a big list of them and I'm going to throw them at Neelai and Joanna. And we're going to see what we think about all of them. And again, this goes on the same point scoring system. So if you're right, by the end of 2025, you get a point. Wrong, no points. Whoever gets the most points gets a prize. We as a group are going to decide the prize together. So we'll figure that out later on in the year.
3:00 David Pierce? But the idea is just if I'm a time traveler from the end of 2025, coming back and I have some things to say to you, some of them are true and some of them are false. What are we going to do? It was very fun. We had a very good time and I think you will enjoy this. We agreed more than I wanted to, but we'll make it work. Anyway, all of that is coming up in just a second. But first, I'm going to go read one page of a book because I am now like three years into this resolution and it continues to work really well and I'm not losing it today. This is the Vergecast. We'll be right back.
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4:04 David Pierce? Welcome back. Neelai Patel is here.
4:06 Nilay Patel? Again.
4:06 David Pierce? Again.
4:08 Nilay Patel? Once again, David has dragged me into the studio.
4:10 David Pierce? If you're all wondering why we're wearing the same clothes and don't look like we've moved, we did. It's been a full week since we recorded this. Don't worry about it. Joanna Stern is also here. Hi Joanna.
4:18 Speaker 03 I wear this every day.
4:19 David Pierce? Yeah, it's this is, this is my podcasting sweater.
4:22 Speaker 03 I've moved to just basically wearing, like I have the same shirt.
4:24 Nilay Patel? You're Steve Jobs now.
4:24 Speaker 03 I am, I really am. I have done that.
4:26 Nilay Patel? Closet full of this Miyaki.
4:28 David Pierce? Truly, the older I get, the more I understand.
4:30 Speaker 03 Legitimately, I have three of these shirts.
4:31 Nilay Patel? Yeah. And then one day you're going to break out the Obama tan suit. Full Fox News cycle.
4:39 David Pierce? Okay, so last week, we did our predictions for 2025. We all had homework, we all talked it through. We still haven't figured out the point system, but I have a whole year to figure out the point system. I'm probably gonna win, but we'll see. What we're gonna do today is I have written down a long list of things that either will or will not happen in 2025. And the way we're gonna set this up is I am a time traveler from the end of 2025, and I'm coming back. And I'm telling you a bunch of things that happened, and you have to decide which ones are true and which ones are lies. Does that make sense? All lies. Fabulous.
5:14 Speaker 03 Why are all these games so complicated?
5:16 David Pierce? It's not complicated. I'm gonna, I'm gonna say a thing that happened at the end of 20, by the end of 2025, and you have to decide, did it or did it not happen? Good?
5:25 Speaker 03 You should have done a costume change.
5:26 David Pierce? I do, I should have, honestly.
5:28 Speaker 03 Because then you could have been like, I am dressed, I'm coming back from, I am David from the end of 2025.
5:34 David Pierce? Like, like jeans get even bigger in 2025.
5:37 Speaker 03 Right.
5:37 David Pierce? So I'm gonna come back.
5:38 Speaker 03 You have a mustache. Anyway.
5:41 David Pierce? A beret. Berets are- This is what AI is for. Berets are huge in 2025. When this actually publishes, will we replace David with AI mustache? 70s David will be here in full flares.
5:53 David Pierce? The only facial hair I can grow is like a pretty, like, evil goatee, so we could do that. Evil David could be- I don't think you have a choice but to grow an evil goatee. Okay. I've ordered these loosely into categories, but the categories don't really matter. So we're just gonna blow through as many of these as we can until we have to get out of here. And again, the, the thing we all have to decide individually is, is this true by the end of 2025, or is it not? Thing number one, not only is Tim Cook still the CEO of Apple, all four big tech CEOs are still the same. Oh, absolutely true. Unless Google breaks itself up. Okay, but then would Sunil Prashay still be the CEO of Google in that instance?
6:35 Speaker 03 That's the one where I have a question mark.
6:38 Nilay Patel? I think right now, the only thing that the big tech companies can do is put familiar faces in front of Donald Trump. And anything that disturbs that is a huge risk. Donald Trump saying Sunil Prashay called me to say I was the most important thing on Google is the thing that protects Google from regulatory risk. You change out that face, that name, that relationship, suddenly Donald's like, I don't like this new guy, and all goes to hell.
7:04 Speaker 03 Yeah, I mean, definitely. There's, yeah, true.
7:07 David Pierce? But you don't think there's, it's possible that one of these CEOs will just decide it's not worth it anymore? That like faced with the prospect of what's coming in so many different directions, it's, they're not just gonna be like, eh?
7:19 Speaker 03 I think they want to, but they're, they're bored to what Neil is saying, they can't.
7:23 Nilay Patel? He says they're all sharks. They think they can win.
7:26 David Pierce? That's fair.
7:27 Nilay Patel? This is not, this is no longer a game about strategy. It's a game about personality and deal making and...
7:33 Speaker 03 Yeah, I think Tim Cook's getting ready. He's like excited about it. I think Tim Cook's excited to retire.
7:40 Nilay Patel? Oh, yeah. He's been laying the groundwork to retire for a long time. This is why John Turner's name keeps getting floated.
7:46 Speaker 03 Right.
7:46 Nilay Patel? But he cannot. Apple is a small country.
7:50 Speaker 03 No, I said, he's, Tim Cook is sad. I don't know this. I think Tim Cook is sad.
7:55 Nilay Patel? I would say, we published this story about Donald Trump saying Tim Cook had called him about European regulations, and the number of comments and responses we got that was like, he would never. This is just salacious slander. I'm like, no, he definitely did.
8:09 Speaker 03 Yeah.
8:09 Nilay Patel? Like, this man opened a fake factory for Donald Trump.
8:13 David Pierce? He is good at this game.
8:15 Nilay Patel? Uh, but if you don't know that, he reopened the Mac Pro factory, where they were already making the Mac Pro, and Trump got to go there and pretend they'd opened a factory.
8:24 David Pierce? As long as you cut a ribbon, it's new. You know what I mean? It counts. Alright, so we're all, we're all saying yes.
8:28 Nilay Patel? By the way, corollary, do we think Donald Trump knows who Andy Jassy is?
8:34 Speaker 03 No.
8:35 Nilay Patel? The CEO of Amazon.
8:36 David Pierce? Yeah.
8:37 Nilay Patel? I think he knows who Jeff Bezos is.
8:38 Speaker 03 Yeah, right.
8:39 David Pierce? And I think the fact.
8:40 Nilay Patel? This is what I, this is.
8:41 David Pierce? I think Andy Jassy's favorite thing in the whole world is probably that everybody knows who Jeff Bezos is. That like, if people are, people are very mad at Jeff Bezos about things that Jeff Bezos is no longer in control of. And I think if you're Andy Jassy, that's a pretty nice place to be.
8:56 Nilay Patel? Yeah. I'm just saying, I, the, we are entering a period where people's personal relationships with the president will determine how American tax regulation goes, and none of these guys can move. Introducing a new face is.
9:10 David Pierce? And also Mark Zuckerberg is unkillable, so he, he doesn't.
9:13 Nilay Patel? Oh, he's by far the most stable.
9:15 Speaker 03 No, he's, he's in.
9:16 Nilay Patel? Right. Founder, CEO, he's staying forever.
9:18 David Pierce? Okay. All right. Moving on. We're all saying yes.
9:21 David Pierce? End of 2025, Nvidia is the most valuable company in the world.
9:26 Nilay Patel? No.
9:27 David Pierce? Okay.
9:28 Speaker 03 What is more valuable?
9:30 Nilay Patel? Right now, it's, it's Apple and Microsoft every day, go back and forth, right?
9:33 David Pierce? Yeah. But Nvidia's right there.
9:35 Nilay Patel? Yeah. I just think that my prediction on the last episode was the AI bubble is gonna pop.
9:39 Speaker 03 Right.
9:40 Nilay Patel? And so if that necessarily means demand for chips will drop.
9:44 David Pierce? Okay. I'm saying yes. Because Nvidia seems to be so far ahead of this game right now. And even if what you're saying is true, there's gonna be some lag to that. Like, I think if the AI bubble does burst, I don't think it's gonna happen in 2025. And I think we're gonna get one more year of wild frothiness. And then something is gonna happen and it's all gonna fall apart.
10:08 Speaker 03 People are gonna keep buying these Blackwell chips. It's gonna just keep happening.
10:12 David Pierce? Yeah.
10:12 Speaker 03 Maybe it.
10:14 Nilay Patel? But all of that forward investment has to turn into revenue.
10:17 Speaker 03 Not for Nvidia.
10:19 David Pierce? Yeah, Nvidia's good.
10:20 Speaker 03 Nvidia's, they're selling them.
10:22 David Pierce? Yeah.
10:22 Nilay Patel? Right. But then at some point, when the companies stop booking.
10:25 Speaker 03 Sure, but maybe it doesn't happen in 2026.
10:28 Nilay Patel? Let me tell you, at some point, when the companies don't have business models to run on their Nvidia chips, Nvidia will stop selling as many chips.
10:35 Speaker 03 But that might not happen until the.
10:36 Nilay Patel? It's coming faster.
10:37 Speaker 03 You think it's gonna happen in 2025?
10:40 Nilay Patel? Yeah, right now, there are companies.
10:41 Speaker 03 Promising their AI agents and they're all, they're all on in, they're all in in next year.
10:46 Nilay Patel? Right. And then they have to ship them.
10:49 Speaker 03 Sure, and then.
10:50 Nilay Patel? I mean, there are companies right now, like cloud computing companies, that are taking out loans to buy Nvidia chips. And the collateral they're putting in for their loans is the Nvidia chips.
11:00 Speaker 03 I just
11:01 Nilay Patel? That's bananas.
11:01 David Pierce? That is the bubbliest bubble you could possibly describe.
11:04 Speaker 03 We might have time.
11:06 Nilay Patel? Oh, seriously? Okay. I but yeah, but I think if the straight prediction
11:10 Speaker 03 It's gonna keep going up.
11:11 Nilay Patel? Is the stock, right? That's how I'm measuring this market cap.
11:14 Speaker 03 Yes.
11:16 Nilay Patel? I'm out.
11:16 Speaker 03 Okay.
11:17 Nilay Patel? I don't think so.
11:17 David Pierce? Are you in?
11:18 Speaker 03 I'll be in.
11:18 David Pierce? I'm in too.
11:21 David Pierce? End of 2025, somebody has acquired Snap.
11:28 Speaker 03 Who?
11:30 David Pierce? Somebody. I can't tell you. I forgot. I have a lot to remember coming back from December 2025.
11:36 Speaker 03 Is it Apple? No, it's not Apple.
11:40 David Pierce? I don't think it would be Apple.
11:41 Speaker 03 Apple doesn't want, no, Apple doesn't want it, but they have things, uh.
11:44 David Pierce? Maybe it's Walmart again.
11:45 Speaker 03 Walmart?
11:46 Nilay Patel? Walmart buys TikTok and Snap.
11:47 David Pierce? Yeah.
11:48 Nilay Patel? No.
11:49 Speaker 03 No.
11:50 Nilay Patel? Just because it's a public company.
11:52 David Pierce? It's just hard to do.
11:53 Nilay Patel? It's just, it's got to fail on its own. Activist investor shows up and tries to push out Evan Spiegel.
11:59 David Pierce? Hmm.
11:59 Nilay Patel? Sure.
12:00 David Pierce? Okay.
12:00 Nilay Patel? A straightforward GE is here to buy Snapchat. Wow. I don't think so.
12:06 David Pierce? Yeah. I think I lean the same way just because I don't know where it goes.
12:09 Speaker 03 I don't know where it goes.
12:10 David Pierce? Yeah. Because I think Snap's problem continues to be that it is a phenomenally successful product that is essentially impossible to turn into a business. And I don't think anybody else has ways to solve that.
12:22 Speaker 03 And I don't know who would want it.
12:23 David Pierce? Like, maybe it's one of the big advert, like, maybe Amazon buys it just because it's like, we're better at selling ads. We can do that, but I don't, I don't totally see it. So, all right, I'm out on that one. We're all out on that one?
12:34 Speaker 03 Yep.
12:35 David Pierce? Okay. Uh, number four, OpenAI is officially a for-profit company and it's making money.
12:42 Speaker 03 Those should be two separate things.
12:44 Nilay Patel? Making money or making a profit?
12:47 Speaker 03 Well, yeah.
12:48 David Pierce? All right, you're right. Let's, let's split them. OpenAI is officially a for-profit company.
12:53 Speaker 03 I would say yes.
12:57 Speaker 03 Making a profit? I would say no.
12:59 David Pierce? This is hard for Neil I.
13:00 Nilay Patel? I think that I think that's a harder, longer fight than anybody thinks.
13:09 Nilay Patel? But can they pull it off in a year?
13:12 David Pierce? A year is both a long time and not a long time. I mean, like this, this lawsuit with Elon Musk is going to keep getting messier. He just, he's going to paperwork everybody into oblivion, it appears, for however long it takes.
13:27 David Pierce? I think OpenAI gets it done just because there is so much money at stake that they're just going to have to figure out how to do it. And again, if you believe that the AI bubble is going to burst, it is in everyone's best interest to get that done as quickly as humanly possible. Because then a bunch of people are going to get liquid.
13:45 David Pierce? And take that money out. And that's how they win. I think everyone has an incentive to do this really fast.
13:50 Nilay Patel? So I'm with you that they will get it done. I'm out that they will turn $1 profit.
13:54 David Pierce? Okay, all right. So we're all in on OpenAI as officially a for-profit company. OpenAI is a profitable company.
14:00 Nilay Patel? No way.
14:00 Speaker 03 No.
14:01 David Pierce? Yeah, easy now. Okay.
14:04 David Pierce? I think I would honestly have a harder time with the like, OpenAI is on an obvious path to being a profitable company than this one, right?
14:13 Speaker 03 Right.
14:14 David Pierce? Can, is this company going to be around for a while? Probably. Are they ever going to make a dime? I have absolutely no idea. All right. Last one.
14:24 Nilay Patel? What? Oh, sorry.
14:27 David Pierce? All right, last one for this section, then we're gonna take a quick break. The government is breaking up one of the big tech companies. Lot of possible candidates on this one. Google seems like probably the most likely in our current timeline.
14:37 Speaker 03 Okay, let's talk about the verb there. Breaking up? Has broken up?
14:43 David Pierce? I would say I would allow anything from has broken up to has officially decided and one required court cases in order to break up.
14:52 David Pierce? It has to be, it has to be done and official that it is happening, but it doesn't have to have happened yet.
14:58 Nilay Patel? Oh, I think Google, then yes, Google is in for it.
15:02 Speaker 03 Yeah, I agree.
15:03 David Pierce? What do you think it looks like?
15:04 Nilay Patel? The one with Chrome and search, it's kind of on the exact same timeline as the Microsoft case. Or like the Clinton administration won that suit and then the Bush administration like settled that suit. So like, you can see how maybe you're just gonna get a bunch of weird compliance stuff happening. The other one, though, the ad tech one, like someone in the Trump administration has to understand what's going on in order to stop it.
15:32 David Pierce? True, but that one would also be the cleanest if you wanted like the, the answer to what to do about that one is just split the two things apart.
15:40 Nilay Patel? Right.
15:40 David Pierce? That's the whole argument is these two things should not be together. We are going to take them apart and then everything will be better. And so if you're the government and you win that case, we don't have to do all this other like, what are the right remedy? You just split the two things apart.
15:53 Nilay Patel? And the reason I say someone in the Trump administration has to understand what's going on is, who knows?
16:00 Nilay Patel? But the people around the Trump administration hate Google. I guess JD Vance is in the Trump administration, but like he's the vice president, like what's he gonna do? It's like the nature-
16:08 David Pierce? He's gonna be busy like getting kids to be more active.
16:10 Nilay Patel? Right, the nature of the vice president is not like you get to break up Google. Uh, but Marc Andreessen hates Google, Peter Thiel hates Google. There's a lot of antipathy towards Google.
16:20 David Pierce? Yeah.
16:20 Nilay Patel? JD Vance, by the way, also hates Google. He has been on stage at events being like, Google is a problem. So I, that one seems assured to me. Whether or not the search case is the mechanism. That's like too fancy.
16:36 David Pierce? Yeah.
16:36 Nilay Patel? Like the Trump administration made Google sell Chrome with all whatever DOJ shakeup is happening. Maybe that's too much. Trump administration forces Google to divest ad tech. Who cares? Like, try, try to get that story across the Fox News Channel. Like, we'll see.
16:56 David Pierce? Yeah, I tend to agree. And I also think, like, as we've talked about on the show, the Google search stuff seems more likely to end with a bunch of, like, behavioral remedies, right? Like, Google's gonna have to do the weird data-sharing stuff. It's gonna have to stop making the default deals. That's not the same thing as...
17:13 Speaker 03 Breaking it off.
17:14 David Pierce? I don't even think they end up selling Chrome. Like, would be my prediction.
17:16 Speaker 03 That's what I was wondering. Like, do some of these concessions happen? And would that happen?
17:20 Nilay Patel? Oh, and all of those concessions are like First Amendment nightmares. I just want to be very clear about this.
17:24 David Pierce? Oh, for sure.
17:25 Nilay Patel? Right. Google is not allowed to have Google Search be the default in Chrome, but, like, rightwingsearch.com has to be the default search in Chrome is a real outcome here. Covidiscool.com is the new default homepage of every Chrome browser is like a real outcome we could get to.
17:42 Speaker 03 But does that hap- could that happen sooner than they break off the ad tech business?
17:48 Nilay Patel? Well, that case is already decided.
17:51 Speaker 03 But...
17:52 Nilay Patel? Right. So, Google is like ruled a monopolist. They're guilty of it. We're on to the what are we gonna do about it phase.
17:58 Speaker 03 Right.
17:59 Nilay Patel? The Trump administration is gonna... Well, yeah, that'll all go back and forth. But somewhere in here, the Trump administration now has the ability to settle that case. Right? And like, who knows what will happen? And whether or not those settlements are a bunch of weird First Amendment ideas that Trump already has about Google, right? I get such bad results in Google is a thing Trump says out loud. That's all messy.
18:20 David Pierce? Yeah.
18:21 Nilay Patel? And the ad tech one is like not messy.
18:23 Speaker 03 This all comes back to me about time. Like, how much can they really do in a year?
18:27 David Pierce? That is fair. I think that's the...
18:29 Speaker 03 That's what I guess I'm trying to understand.
18:30 David Pierce? Most compelling reason to bet against would be that this stuff all just takes a long time to get done.
18:34 Nilay Patel? Right. Sunil Pichai calls Donald Trump and says, "Hey, I will make you the number one result for every query in Google Search. If you settle this case with us is a thing that could happen."
18:46 David Pierce? Yep. But you're still saying yes.
18:49 Nilay Patel? Yeah. Something will happen with Google. Like, I think...
18:52 Speaker 03 But something will happen and they break off their business, or something will happen and there will be...
18:59 Speaker 03 Clear concessions made.
19:02 David Pierce? Clear concessions.
19:03 Nilay Patel? Clear concessions.
19:04 Speaker 03 Okay.
19:04 David Pierce? Okay. I'm in too.
19:06 Speaker 03 Sure.
19:06 David Pierce? What do you think? Yeah, we're all in.
19:07 Speaker 03 I don't know. My whole thing is this time, like,
19:11 Speaker 03 a year is long.
19:12 David Pierce? I mean,
19:12 Speaker 03 but it's also not.
19:13 David Pierce? Betting on the legal system taking a really long time is a pretty safe bet most of the time. So I think it's not, it's not crazy. But now you have to decide, you in or you out?
19:19 Speaker 03 I'm out then.
19:20 David Pierce? All right. All right.
19:23 Nilay Patel? But by the way, I have no idea what's gonna happen with the Apple cases.
19:25 Speaker 03 Yeah.
19:26 Nilay Patel? Right.
19:27 David Pierce? Yeah.
19:27 Nilay Patel? They might not even arrive.
19:28 Speaker 03 Right.
19:30 David Pierce? And there's Amazon stuff floating around and there's Microsoft stuff floating, like, I think all of that stuff definitely takes too long.
19:35 Speaker 03 Amazon stuff, I mean, whatever.
19:37 David Pierce? Yeah. All right. One more for this section, then we're gonna take a break. We have had a huge society shaking AI scandal that made everybody think differently about AI. End of 2025.
19:49 Nilay Patel? Oh, yeah. I think they're already happening. I just think we don't know how to talk about them. I think that the sort of like deep fake bullying in schools will reach a crisis point like so much faster than we think. And none of the big platforms have any real plans to stop it.
20:04 Nilay Patel? Like, it's, it's, it's already here.
20:06 David Pierce? But do you think, I would argue, that would have to get bigger than some of this stuff? Like, that would have to be an order of magnitude bigger than like the stuff that has been happening on Instagram already and like cyberbullying stuff and the, the mental health crisis on Instagram? That stuff didn't, it never hit the level of like,
20:23 David Pierce? the most important thing to everybody.
20:25 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
20:27 Speaker 03 Yeah, I think it's probably gonna happen in some sort of, like institutional way to make people care. Cause like, I'm not sure people keep caring about these one-off issues about kids. But if there's some big hospital or some big company that has some AI flaw and they're, put it all on, you know, they lose a lot of money or at worst they lose some lives and they put it on AI, then that's probably a likely thing.
20:52 Nilay Patel? America is very much in the let's touch the stove moment.
20:55 David Pierce? Yep.
20:56 Speaker 03 Right.
20:56 Nilay Patel? Like, let's just see, is it hot?
20:57 David Pierce? Right.
20:57 Nilay Patel? Let's just super, let's touch it as hard as we can. And I think that's where we are with AI. And I, I just think that we're also in a moment where a bunch of parents are really rethinking the value of the phones for their kids.
21:08 David Pierce? Yes.
21:09 Nilay Patel? Just across the board. And one or two more of these stories where a bunch of kids circulate non-consensual deep fake nudes of each other.
21:21 Nilay Patel? You can just, it's like, we're also in a political environment where we have much politicians who are like, "I'm gonna do stuff." And this is, you can just point a lot of that energy at this because no one can argue about it.
21:31 David Pierce? Yep. Yeah, I think I'm a yes on this one. I have no idea what it'll look like, but I think the idea that, like, I just think about, like, Cambridge Analytica, which was one of those things that-
21:40 Speaker 03 Right. I think that's what we, we're gonna, we're definitely going to get one of those at some point.
21:44 David Pierce? For whatever Cambridge Analytica was and wasn't, it was like, it was a thing everyone knew about and could reference and talked about. And I think we haven't had any of those with AI specifically yet, and I think we're gonna get one.
21:56 Speaker 03 And that's why I think it's gonna be like something institutional. Like, it's gonna touch-
21:59 David Pierce? A hospital's a really interesting one, honestly. You could see a bunch of ways that could get-
22:03 Speaker 03 I think it's gonna touch some part of life, and I hear what Neil is saying about the kids, but I just don't think there's enough outrage. Like, there's outrage about it, but like, yeah, everyone agrees, like, you know, kids have too much to have.
22:14 David Pierce? Kids don't have the juice.
22:15 Speaker 03 Yeah. Like, there's already, everyone, like, every side agrees.
22:20 David Pierce? Yeah. And yet, here we are.
22:23 Speaker 03 Yeah.
22:23 David Pierce? All right. I buy it. So, we're all in on this one. All right, let's take a break, then we're gonna come back, we're gonna do much more.
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23:03 David Pierce? All right, we're back. I have a bunch of streaming ones that we're gonna do. Streaming, entertainment, et cetera. Uh, I'm gonna get you out of here on time, I promise. I see you looking at your watch. One or more of Macs, Paramount Plus, and Peacock no longer exists.
23:20 Nilay Patel? I feel like I have to disclose already because Peacock is owned by Comcast. Comcast is an investor in Rox Media. I made a Netflix show.
23:30 Speaker 03 Do you really have to disclose these things?
23:31 Nilay Patel? We do it every time.
23:32 Speaker 03 Really?
23:32 Nilay Patel? And when we don't do it, the people yell at us.
23:34 Speaker 03 Okay.
23:35 David Pierce? Disclosure is our brand, Joanna.
23:36 Speaker 03 Okay.
23:37 Nilay Patel? One time in a review of Starlink.
23:38 David Pierce? Joanna won an Emmy. Can we disclose that?
23:40 Nilay Patel? We should.
23:41 Speaker 03 Disclosure.
23:42 Nilay Patel? It's done.
23:43 Speaker 03 Disclosure. Done.
23:46 Nilay Patel? Uh, one time I reviewed Starlink and I said, this is kind of spotty if you shine it through trees. And most people have trees in their backyard. And then, uh, I was like,
23:54 Speaker 03 What's?
23:54 Nilay Patel? My wired internet connection is superior to this. And I was accused of being a Comcast shill because I said wireless, wired connections are better than wireless ones. And I was like, if that's where we're at.
24:05 Speaker 03 Was Peacock an option there?
24:06 David Pierce? Peacock, Paramount Plus, Max. One or more of those three services in particular.
24:10 Nilay Patel? Paramount Plus is gone.
24:11 David Pierce? Does not exist at the end of 2025.
24:13 Nilay Patel? Although I will say they're like all in on letting Taylor Sheridan do whatever he wants.
24:18 Nilay Patel? Which is like a reasonable strategy, actually. Like I watched Landman.
24:22 David Pierce? It does kind of work. Yeah.
24:23 Nilay Patel? The Billy Bob Thornton one. I was like, oh, you should just let Taylor Sheridan do whatever he wants. It's pretty good. He's kind of like redneck Aaron Sorkin. Like it's just like a lot of nothing happens in these shows and then there's an explosion.
24:36 David Pierce? Yeah, but like the dialogue is crisp.
24:38 Nilay Patel? Right.
24:38 David Pierce? Brew out.
24:39 Nilay Patel? I mean, like everyone's walking and talking and then like, man, that's been about an hour. Something should blow up.
24:46 Nilay Patel? Every one of these episodes.
24:47 David Pierce? He's Aaron Sorkin not coastal elite. I love it.
24:51 Nilay Patel? It's good. Uh, but they're done. That deal will go away. That's not going to drive enough stuff for them.
24:57 Speaker 03 I really love Max. That's my, that's my contribution here.
25:01 Nilay Patel? I should have picked Max.
25:03 David Pierce? To die?
25:03 Speaker 03 To die?
25:04 David Pierce? I think.
25:05 Speaker 03 I love Max.
25:05 David Pierce? One of Max and Paramount Plus is going to be gone. I don't know which one it is. There's going to be some.
25:10 Speaker 03 Max has to be doing pretty good.
25:13 Nilay Patel? Because they're being run so well by Warner Brothers Discovery.
25:16 David Pierce? That's, that's going great.
25:18 Speaker 03 They have decent programming on there.
25:20 Nilay Patel? What do you watch on Max?
25:22 Speaker 03 I just watched all of Industry.
25:24 Nilay Patel? Sure, okay.
25:25 David Pierce? Industry's selling.
25:26 Nilay Patel? People like that show.
25:26 David Pierce? Yeah.
25:26 Speaker 03 Yeah.
25:27 David Pierce? Gen Z succession.
25:28 Nilay Patel? One, one show.
25:31 David Pierce? Hacks. Hacks is good.
25:33 Speaker 03 Hacks? I think we watched Paw Patrol through Max.
25:38 Nilay Patel? Hmm.
25:39 Speaker 03 Maybe not.
25:40 Nilay Patel? It sucks that my kid is named Max.
25:41 Speaker 03 Yeah, it does.
25:44 David Pierce? Joanna just calls Max and says, describe Paw Patrol to me.
25:47 Speaker 03 We also watched Jurassic Park on there.
25:49 Nilay Patel? Did your kids have a crush on Chase?
25:52 Nilay Patel? Max had a, like, a baby crush.
25:54 Speaker 03 The dog?
25:54 Nilay Patel? Chase was her favorite dog on Paw Patrol. And I was like, why'd you pick the cop?
25:58 Speaker 03 Uh.
25:58 Nilay Patel? Like, why, why not? There's a water dog.
26:01 Speaker 03 Alex does like, no, I think he, she really likes rubble.
26:04 Nilay Patel? Yeah, rubble's great.
26:05 Speaker 03 Rubble's great.
26:06 Nilay Patel? He likes, he fixes stuff.
26:07 Speaker 03 Do we watch it through Max?
26:08 Nilay Patel? Cop dog.
26:10 David Pierce? See, I would argue this, this might not be the great case for Max that you think it is.
26:15 Speaker 03 But I like, okay, I'll be on it. Like, we had Peacock for the Olympics. Don't have it anymore. Paramount, don't have it anymore.
26:22 Nilay Patel? Oh, this is my other prediction. They will all solve this problem by not letting you turn as hard as you can turn right now.
26:27 Speaker 03 That I believe. That I will put a lot on.
26:30 David Pierce? That's a really good one.
26:31 Speaker 03 But yeah, there was just that legisla, like, there's, was it, what's the legislation that just happened that makes it, you have to make it?
26:37 Nilay Patel? Cancel.
26:37 Speaker 03 Yeah.
26:38 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
26:38 Speaker 03 So how are they gonna get around that?
26:39 Nilay Patel? That's going away in the Trump administration. A federal agency doing stuff? Yeah, uh, that's, that's all over now.
26:45 David Pierce? Yeah.
26:45 Nilay Patel? Especially because Lena Con did it.
26:48 David Pierce? All right, we're all saying yes to that one, right?
26:50 Nilay Patel? But one of the three. You don't have to pick one.
26:52 David Pierce? One or more of the three is, is gone.
26:53 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
26:54 David Pierce? Uh, again, my, my time travel is, you lose some stuff, it's hard to remember everything in the time travel. Netflix is killing it in live TV and is already the biggest thing in life.
27:06 Nilay Patel? No.
27:06 Speaker 03 No.
27:07 Nilay Patel? Disclosure. You already know it.
27:09 David Pierce? We did that.
27:10 Speaker 03 Disclosure. How long ago did that show, like, how long do you have any years you have to say that?
27:15 David Pierce? Forever.
27:15 Speaker 03 Since it's on there, it's gonna be on there forever.
27:17 David Pierce? Video on demand.
27:18 Nilay Patel? Yeah, I didn't even get paid for it. This is like the funniest part of this. It was like not even a conflict of interest. I just did the thing.
27:24 Speaker 03 Do I have to have a disclosure that I talked to you when you were doing?
27:27 Nilay Patel? If you want to. If you, if everyone like to remind everyone else that I made a Netflix show, that's great for me personally.
27:33 Speaker 03 Disclosure, I spoke to Neelai when he was working on Netflix, his Netflix show, and I also talked to him when he had Comcast.
27:40 David Pierce? Well, you're clearly in somebody's pocket.
27:42 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
27:42 David Pierce? I don't know who it is.
27:43 Nilay Patel? Comcast, you mean the service in Chicago?
27:45 Speaker 03 You still have Comcast?
27:46 Nilay Patel? No, there's no Comcast out here.
27:48 Speaker 03 What do you have? Xfinity? Isn't Xfinity content?
27:51 Nilay Patel? Do I have to say disclosure? I have FiOS and rules. Wired internet is better than wireless internet, my friends.
27:57 Speaker 03 Disclosure, I also have FiOS.
27:58 Nilay Patel? Well.
27:59 David Pierce? I have Ting. Let's go.
28:00 Nilay Patel? We're conflicted out.
28:01 David Pierce? Ting maybe. All right, next one. We're all saying no on that one. Yeah, we're good. Okay.
28:06 Nilay Patel? They have a long way to go.
28:08 David Pierce? Yeah. Jake Paul needs to fight somebody else and then.
28:11 Nilay Patel? They have a big test. Christmas, this Christmas.
28:13 David Pierce? Yeah.
28:13 Nilay Patel? I reserve the right to revise this after the NFL on Christmas on Netflix, but I don't think they're right.
28:20 David Pierce? Netflix certainly has the money to do it, but it's harder work than anybody thinks. Grand Theft Auto launched, Grand Theft Auto 6, rather. Grand Theft Auto 6 launched and it is the single most successful game in history and has basically changed the video game industry all by itself.
28:35 Nilay Patel? That's, that's too many ideas. So I say yes to launch.
28:40 David Pierce? Grand Theft Auto 6 is the prince that was promised.
28:43 Nilay Patel? It's too many ideas.
28:44 Speaker 03 It launches.
28:44 Nilay Patel? It launches, it makes a bunch of money. Agreed.
28:47 David Pierce? Okay.
28:47 Nilay Patel? Everyone else has already tried to do the big game as a service thing. What was the Sony one that just failed?
28:56 David Pierce? Concord?
28:57 Nilay Patel? Yeah, everyone just wanted to do Fortnite and it like didn't work. You need to have the big property that can support it. Grand Theft Auto is one of those properties. Changes, I think everyone's gonna be like, man, I wish we'd invented Grand Theft Auto and they will continue not investing money into these things that fail.
29:12 David Pierce? But you think Grand Theft Auto on its own? Big hit, it's gonna work.
29:17 Nilay Patel? Yeah. I mean, assuming it's not a disaster, but I think a lot of people are gonna.
29:20 David Pierce? No, this is, this is the prediction we have to make here. It's, I mean, the, the reason I put this in is that we have had a long run of huge, expensive games that haven't worked for one reason or another. And if that happens to GTA 6, it's gonna be a disaster.
29:36 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
29:37 David Pierce? Like, this, this is the most hyped game in forever. And it has been around for forever. It has like loomed over the gaming industry for years. And if it doesn't hit, and it's not as good and big and exciting and cool and groundbreaking, like GTA V is still a wildly successful game. If GTA 6 flops.
29:57 Nilay Patel? Chris Grant, who's our publisher and the founder of Polygon, has always shown me this chart. It's like the highest grossing games in the world, and they're all over like seven years old.
30:04 David Pierce? Yeah.
30:05 Nilay Patel? They're all very old, because they've all just turned into these places where people hang out. So GTA 6 has a long road.
30:10 David Pierce? It does.
30:11 Nilay Patel? Like Cyberpunk 2770 came out and like didn't work. And then that works and like everyone loves it.
30:17 David Pierce? But a lot of, a lot of heads rolled in the meantime.
30:19 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
30:19 David Pierce? All right, I'm in on this one. Sounds like you are too.
30:22 Speaker 03 I have no idea what you're talking about.
30:23 David Pierce? Joanna is just a big question mark. Um, okay. Few more. Uh, it's the end of 2025 and folding phones are completely mainstream now.
30:35 Speaker 03 Unless Apple's releasing one, and they're not. So no.
30:38 Nilay Patel? You don't think they are?
30:39 David Pierce? One of the other ones I was gonna put is.
30:41 Speaker 03 In 2025? I don't think so.
30:45 Nilay Patel? I think it's actually very funny that Apple thought it could drive a supercycle with AI. And really it just needs to make the phone fold over and that will be the thing.
30:51 Speaker 03 Yeah, well, 100% drive a supercycle.
30:53 David Pierce? What if I changed it to, "Apple released a foldable iPhone?" Or iPad. "Apple released a foldable something in 2025."
31:00 Nilay Patel? The displays aren't good enough.
31:01 Speaker 03 They released a foldable MacBook, which is just a MacBook. It's a laptop.
31:05 David Pierce? But it's a MacBook, you can, you can.
31:06 Speaker 03 It just folds.
31:07 David Pierce? Scrunch up into your pocket.
31:08 Speaker 03 It's just like that, but it has a better chip. That's their foldable for the year.
31:13 David Pierce? All right, so you're out on foldable phones going mainstream.
31:15 Speaker 03 I think they will go mainstream once Apple has one.
31:18 David Pierce? But you don't think it's next year?
31:19 Speaker 03 No.
31:20 David Pierce? Okay. Neil, I?
31:22 Nilay Patel? No, not next year.
31:23 David Pierce? Yeah, I'm out too. I think it's coming.
31:27 Speaker 03 Yeah.
31:27 David Pierce? I continue to believe.
31:28 Speaker 03 2026 was one.
31:30 David Pierce? Foldable phones and flip phones, which I all.
31:32 Speaker 03 Yeah.
31:32 David Pierce? Collapse into folding phones.
31:34 Speaker 03 It will be a thing.
31:35 David Pierce? Going to happen.
31:36 Speaker 03 Yeah.
31:36 David Pierce? Yeah.
31:37 Speaker 03 They're getting better. I see him. I see him a lot now.
31:39 David Pierce? Okay. The Pixel 10 is by far the best and most successful Android phone.
31:45 Speaker 03 What a success. How is best measured?
31:47 David Pierce? Let's just land on best. It is by far the best Android phone.
31:49 Speaker 03 How is best measured?
31:51 Nilay Patel? You're a product reviewer.
31:52 David Pierce? Yeah, right?
31:52 Nilay Patel? You were the lead product reviewer of the Wall Street Journal.
31:55 Speaker 03 How was it measured?
31:56 Nilay Patel? Are you having this like existential debate about what's a good phone? How do you? What do you think a good phone is?
32:02 Speaker 03 Best? Fine. I think we've all agreed that it's been the best Android phone for a long time.
32:06 Nilay Patel? Wait, are we agreed on that?
32:08 Speaker 03 I mean.
32:11 Nilay Patel? Go on.
32:14 Speaker 03 I will say I do not think Samsung has, other than some hardware improvements, I do not think they've had substantial improvements to their phones. And I think they lean very heavily on their relationship with Google to do all the work. And yeah, like, at this point, like, nobody.
32:33 Nilay Patel? You don't think the Galaxy Fold is better than the Pixel Fold?
32:37 Speaker 03 Yeah, I guess on foldables, I would say they've done a better job on the hardware and they're fine. But I guess I'm talking about like flagship phones that continue to be the most popular.
32:47 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
32:47 Speaker 03 That is always going to be Samsung. They're going to, sorry, and I say this by sales, Samsung will continue to sell more phones, whether they have the best one or they don't. And that's just been the story of Android for how many years?
33:01 David Pierce? Mm hmm. All of them.
33:02 Speaker 03 Is that going to change in 2020, 2025?
33:05 Nilay Patel? Do you think right now the Pixel is a better phone than whatever Galaxy?
33:10 Speaker 03 I.
33:12 Speaker 03 I prefer, I will always prefer the software experience of the Pixel. I just do.
33:18 Nilay Patel? Yeah, I don't disagree with you.
33:19 Speaker 03 Yeah, so I mean, like, you know, I don't know the, like, can it, the Galaxy take slightly better photos in my last testing like two years ago? I don't know. Like, did that change? You guys tell me?
33:33 David Pierce? Not really.
33:33 Speaker 03 I haven't done camera testing of the Pixel and the Samsung in probably two years.
33:37 Nilay Patel? They, at this point, they are all on top of each other.
33:40 Speaker 03 Yeah, right. So I come down on, okay, there's a great software experience on the Pixel. And people, they, they gained one point of market share, I believe, this year.
33:53 Nilay Patel? Well, they also.
33:53 Speaker 03 According to IDC.
33:54 Nilay Patel? Google can't try very hard.
33:57 Speaker 03 Well, maybe they'll break them up.
33:59 Nilay Patel? This is a real problem for them, right? They can't piss off Samsung.
34:02 Speaker 03 Right. So I guess that's where I was like, success and best, like, sure, it's the best, but you first said success, which you changed.
34:11 Nilay Patel? Wait, read, read your thing again.
34:12 David Pierce? If we want to just, I originally said best and most successful. But if we want to split hairs, we can do one and the other.
34:18 Speaker 03 I think those are very different things.
34:20 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
34:20 David Pierce? Well, yeah, they are different things, but I'm telling you both happened in 2025.
34:24 Nilay Patel? Oh, then that's a hard no. If it's both, absolutely not.
34:27 Speaker 03 That's what I'm saying.
34:28 David Pierce? Okay.
34:29 Speaker 03 Okay.
34:30 Nilay Patel? But it will remain the best one?
34:35 David Pierce? How do I write that in my notes about what you guys said? All right. Yeah, I think we're all, we're all nos on that one.
34:40 Speaker 03 I mean, but like, what is the most exciting thing that's going to happen in smartphones in the next year?
34:46 Speaker 03 What are we all going to be excited about when Samsung comes out with the Galaxy S25?
34:48 David Pierce? Ostensibly, it's AI.
34:50 Speaker 03 And is that something we're going to get excited about?
34:52 David Pierce? No.
34:53 Nilay Patel? Bluetooth 6.
34:56 Speaker 03 Bluetooth is AI. I've come full circle.
34:59 David Pierce? All right, let's do a couple more. Joanna, you have to leave here in a minute. Let's do a couple more. Apple is actually making a television. It's official.
35:06 Nilay Patel? There's, there's been rumored again recently.
35:09 Speaker 03 Yeah, they've been making the television.
35:10 David Pierce? It's real this time. Apple is going to sell you a television.
35:12 Speaker 03 2008?
35:15 Nilay Patel? Not in 2025, but I think that the rumors on this will heat up. Apple is out of markets. This is a real problem. They don't make enough stuff. It's weird that they don't make enough stuff.
35:26 David Pierce? The longer I wrote this one down originally, like as kind of a joke, and the longer I think about it, the more I want to say yes.
35:31 Speaker 03 But this year?
35:32 David Pierce? Yeah, I think it's possible.
35:34 Nilay Patel? I mean, it's not like hard to do.
35:36 David Pierce? A TV is right.
35:37 Nilay Patel? Like, at the end of the day, they gotta buy an OLED panel from Samsung. They gotta glue an Apple TV to the back of it, and they're gonna be like $6,000.
35:44 Speaker 03 Some nice frames.
35:44 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
35:45 Speaker 03 To put around it.
35:48 Nilay Patel? It's weird because the thing you're saying about cable television dying and all this other stuff, like runs against Apple doing a TV.
35:54 David Pierce? Yes.
35:55 Nilay Patel? It's a real problem. I think they might have missed the window on doing this.
35:59 David Pierce? Unless Apple thinks there's a giant ads business in being.
36:02 Nilay Patel? Or an extension of their services business.
36:04 David Pierce? Sure.
36:05 Nilay Patel? But they were chasing other huge iPhone-sized markets, and the only ones they could identify were healthcare and cars. And they got run out of cars because it's too hard. I know what they're gonna do in healthcare over time.
36:15 Speaker 03 But if the home, which seems to be this big place, they're gonna focus some of the effort this year, and they do this home tablet sometime this spring, seems like something between an iPad and an Apple TV type of thing.
36:28 David Pierce? Yeah.
36:29 Speaker 03 In terms of like software, right?
36:31 Nilay Patel? They gotta put another screen in your house, and they gotta find a way to charge you money.
36:33 Speaker 03 So let's say they put another screen in your house that's home-based. Is it a TV this year, or is it this like tablet?
36:39 Nilay Patel? They're gonna do this little thing first.
36:40 Speaker 03 Right. So I don't know. I think this TV thing is, to your point, like they've got to go to other markets. This makes sense. They can finally say, hey, we've got it all integrated. It's just one cord into the wall. Like, great. But then, does that happen this year?
36:55 David Pierce? I'm saying.
36:55 Speaker 03 I don't think it happens this year. No.
36:57 David Pierce? I'm in on it.
36:58 Nilay Patel? I think we're gonna hear a lot about it this year. They're gonna feel that. Just like Apple making a TV.
37:04 Speaker 03 Like reports.
37:05 Nilay Patel? Yeah, we're gonna hear a lot of noise about this.
37:07 Speaker 03 Is gonna be very busy talking about this.
37:09 Nilay Patel? Doesn't Apple TV have HDMI ports?
37:11 Speaker 03 No.
37:12 Nilay Patel? Well, then what are all the people with PSYs gonna do?
37:14 Speaker 03 They're not.
37:16 Nilay Patel? So you're gonna make it a TV that just excludes?
37:18 David Pierce? No, it'll have HDMI ports.
37:20 Speaker 03 You think so?
37:20 Nilay Patel? This is complicated. It immediately makes it complicated.
37:23 Speaker 03 See, I think that's what they've wanted to do, is the like, one port, like it just plugs in.
37:28 David Pierce? But again, if you're doing, if you're doing the home stuff you're talking about, you could sell me a bunch of new screens, or you could take advantage of the big screen that sits in the middle of everyone's house, and is like, this Gen 2 E on our team keeps railing on this, like, the TV is the center of the smart home.
37:45 Speaker 03 It is. I love that.
37:46 David Pierce? No one has solved this yet.
37:48 Speaker 03 I love when my garage door opens and I see a little alert on my TV that says garage door open.
37:54 David Pierce? And it's 2 o'clock in the morning and you didn't do that on purpose, and here we are. All right, last one, and then Joanna, you're gonna go.
38:02 David Pierce? What do I want to do last? Waymo's self-driving cars are now everywhere in New York City.
38:07 Speaker 03 No. I just interviewed the CEO. No. But I, but they will be like, in a lot of other cities.
38:13 David Pierce? Okay. I, I picked New York specifically, because it is, it is probably the highest bar.
38:18 Speaker 03 Like, New York, they are working on. But it's, it's not, not yet.
38:22 Nilay Patel? New York also has the weather issue, that they are... The last time I talked to, to Kedra, she was, I was like, can you get this thing in Aspen, Colorado? And she's like, no. She's like, no, like, we can't solve that problem yet. Like, weather is too hard. And New York has enough weather where I think it's too...
38:37 Speaker 03 That's true.
38:38 David Pierce? Do you think it'll...
38:39 Speaker 03 They're testing here, apparently.
38:40 Nilay Patel? They are. And there's aspects of New York that make it simpler.
38:44 Speaker 03 Totally.
38:44 Nilay Patel? It's a big grid.
38:45 David Pierce? Yeah.
38:46 Nilay Patel? You can just like, solve that problem. But there's two feet of snow on the ground. It's real icy.
38:52 Speaker 03 There's no bike lanes. I think New York's really challenging.
38:55 Nilay Patel? No, I'm saying there are aspects of New York that make it simpler than LA, or whatever, right?
38:59 Speaker 03 See, I think like, Brooklyn makes a lot of sense.
39:03 Nilay Patel? Just like no laws in Brooklyn.
39:04 Speaker 03 No laws in Brooklyn. But like, you go down, Manhattan is gonna be tough for them. But weather, it, there's a lot of reasons I think no, but I think we're gonna, I, I think that 2025 is the year that met, I don't wanna say most people.
39:21 Speaker 03 A lot of people will go in Waymos for their first time. And you'll see tons of it on social media.
39:27 David Pierce? It's gonna have its moment.
39:28 Speaker 03 It's gonna have its moment.
39:29 David Pierce? Okay.
39:30 Speaker 03 Because like, I was in LA last week and everyone who was in LA was trying it. It was like a total viral thing. So it's coming to Austin, Phoenix. They're already in San Francisco. They're working on getting on highways. It's already in LA. They expanded. It's gonna, people are gonna talk about it when they go to these cities.
39:46 David Pierce? Okay, I like this one. I'm changing this to Waymo is going to have its moment.
39:49 Nilay Patel? Waymo has a real problem though, because their platform is the Jaguar i-Pace. And Jaguar has decided to just be an influencer company now, or whatever it is. Like, they need a new car.
40:01 Speaker 03 They have Hyundai.
40:02 Nilay Patel? Oh, Hyundai's coming on.
40:03 Speaker 03 Yep. Hyundai's coming this year.
40:05 Nilay Patel? Alright.
40:06 Speaker 03 I love Waymo.
40:07 David Pierce? There you go. I'm out on this one. I think.
40:10 Speaker 03 And I think Zooks is doing some stuff this year, too.
40:13 David Pierce? I think the momentum here is really good.
40:14 Nilay Patel? And Tesla has a fake robot.
40:16 Speaker 03 Oh, yes, right. The fake robot.
40:17 David Pierce? It's real. You can look at it in a store and it doesn't move. I don't know what you're talking about. Are you in on this one, Neel?
40:23 Nilay Patel? Yeah. Anyway, Waymo's due.
40:25 David Pierce? I'm out on this one only because I've been burned by being in on this one so many times.
40:29 Speaker 03 This is the year. This is the year.
40:30 David Pierce? Alright, we'll see. Alright, we gotta take one more break, then we're gonna come back. We're gonna rapid fire through the rest of these and we're gonna get out of here. Sound good? Alright.
40:36 Speaker 03 On it.
40:38 Speaker 04 Flowing ad budget on metrics that look great till the CFO sees them? That's bull spend. And marketers are calling it out in Dashboard Confessions.
40:48 Speaker 05 I remember telling my boss, it'll be good for the brand when leads were slow. Yeah, it, it wasn't.
40:56 Speaker 04 Cut the bull spend. LinkedIn lets you target by company, job title, and more. Advertise on LinkedIn. Spend $250 on your first campaign and get a $250 credit. Go to LinkedIn.com/campaign. Terms and conditions apply.
41:11 David Pierce? Alright, we're back. Okay, I have a couple here that rhyme slightly with some of the stuff we were talking about last week.
41:19 David Pierce? The first one I have here is, the new Alexa is sick and everybody likes it.
41:24 Speaker 03 Like sick.
41:25 David Pierce? It's sick. It's not just like
41:27 Speaker 03 It actually physically gets sick.
41:30 David Pierce? It is literally cold. My Alexa has been throwing up on me.
41:33 Speaker 03 It's so sentient. It's like, ugh.
41:36 Nilay Patel? Wait, wait. I'm in if we are like, it has an illness.
41:38 Speaker 03 I cannot set a timer.
41:40 Nilay Patel? If we're, if it's sick, it's so cool. It's sick. I'm out.
41:44 David Pierce? It's so cool. It's sick.
41:45 Nilay Patel? Has it appears to have an illness? I'm in.
41:48 Speaker 03 It appears to have an illness and it's so, it's, it has such a strong personality that it develops sicknesses and colds and has stomach problems. It's like, oh,
41:57 David Pierce? I have to say.
41:58 Speaker 03 You ordered too much Whole Foods.
41:59 David Pierce? If you could set the character as just like your ill relative who lives with you, that would be incredible.
42:06 David Pierce? And anytime you ask it for anything, it's like, ugh.
42:09 Speaker 03 Anyway, I'm totally in on Alexa having an illness.
42:11 David Pierce? Okay.
42:12 Nilay Patel? Yeah. Well, I think we're both, we're both picking illness.
42:14 David Pierce? Yeah. Uh, I'm writing illness. Uh, I'm in on this one. My, I, I think Amazon is.
42:22 Speaker 03 That is actually a best case scenario for the launch is they, they put these in homes and it's so sentient and it's, and it, and it believes it's alive that it's like, sorry, I can't, I can't order the Whole Foods today.
42:36 Speaker 03 Sorry, I can't tell you if the package was delivered. Do you like my sick Alexa voice?
42:42 David Pierce? That's pretty good.
42:42 Nilay Patel? I'm a little worried that if I react to it too much, it's racist.
42:49 Nilay Patel? It's like a little too neurotic. You know what I mean?
42:51 Speaker 03 Yeah.
42:51 David Pierce? Yeah, that's fair. Um, all right.
42:53 Nilay Patel? Well, I could do anxious Indian mom.
42:54 Speaker 03 Yeah, do it.
42:55 Nilay Patel? Like, do you think that's gonna work?
42:59 Speaker 03 I think you need more of a stronger accent there, but I get you not wanting to get racist. Okay.
43:03 David Pierce? Should I go to med school? Um.
43:04 Speaker 03 Yeah.
43:05 Nilay Patel? See what I mean?
43:06 David Pierce? Uh, all right. Next up, Blue Sky is every bit as big as Threads.
43:11 Speaker 03 I think it already kinda is. I don't know. Is it?
43:14 Nilay Patel? You're having a real, what is everything existential crisis over there? No, absolutely not. They're gonna keep juicing the Threads numbers with Instagram forever. Is Blue Sky more relevant than Threads? Yes.
43:25 Speaker 03 Relevant?
43:26 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
43:27 Speaker 03 Because of the people that are there?
43:28 Nilay Patel? Because of the people that are there. Is that where the conversation is?
43:30 David Pierce? Okay. I'll, I'll allow both of these. So Blue Sky is more relevant than Threads. You're saying, yeah.
43:36 Nilay Patel? But Threads will be huge. And Threads is just gonna be, it's already hundreds of millions of people, right?
43:39 David Pierce? Hmm.
43:40 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
43:40 David Pierce? It's, it's probably, given what we've heard from earnings and since they're probably like knocking on the door of 300 million users.
43:46 Nilay Patel? Yeah, that's, and they're gonna keep juicing it with Instagram and it's a creator platform and it will, that will be a thing. I think Blue Sky, who knows how big it will get. I'm very high on Interop and Fediverse and all this stuff. But the, the ceiling that we know of is Twitter, which in its heyday was 325 million people. And so I think Threads can get bigger than that because they can just keep juicing it with Instagram.
44:09 David Pierce? Hmm, that seems right to me. I think the Threads is going to be so big and so integrated into Instagram that it's actually going to be more powerful than it would have been on its own.
44:20 Nilay Patel? Mm hmm.
44:20 David Pierce? But I think the cool kids will be on Blue Sky and that matters. Like the, what are, what are people on cable news going to read and put on the screen as they talk about it? I would bet on Blue Sky.
44:32 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
44:32 David Pierce? Over Threads. If it's those two against each other, I would bet on Blue Sky.
44:36 Speaker 03 Well, this goes back to your cable dying thing from last week, but I think those people continue to stay on X.
44:43 David Pierce? Interesting, okay. So the answer is kind of neither one.
44:47 Speaker 03 I, I think it depends, but like I hear what Neil is saying on the relevant, like if, if it continues at this pace and it can bring over people that are breaking news there and it is more of the conversation, but they've got to keep, and this is where Threads has done a slightly better job is getting politicians and celebrities and they've had those people, but they're not actively posting there.
45:08 David Pierce? Right.
45:08 Speaker 03 So if they can build the relevancy on Blue Sky and get those people coming over and actually consistently posting, I'm in.
45:16 David Pierce? Okay.
45:17 Nilay Patel? It is. I don't think they're going to stay on X, though. X has, is going to have the same algorithmic brain rot as Threads.
45:23 Speaker 03 Yeah.
45:23 Nilay Patel? Right.
45:24 David Pierce? It's just a different kind of gas leak social network.
45:26 Nilay Patel? Yeah, it's just like Threads, like I keep making this distinction, I probably need to like, explain it better, but I think you have creator platforms now and you have social media platforms. And like most things have become creator platforms where they are walled gardens, they're focused on keeping your engaged time on those sites high, they're algorithmic for you recommendations. They're entirely built around incentivizing creators to run content businesses on the terms of platforms. That's threads.
45:52 Speaker 03 Got you.
45:53 Nilay Patel? That's the shape of threads.
45:54 Speaker 03 Yeah. But you're talking old school, social media, you go, you share your thing, you don't care if people leave, you've got links, it's a portal to the web.
46:02 Nilay Patel? Right. Well, I mean, that part is interesting, but the part where it's like, I'm going here to follow a bunch of people and see what they're talking about. And those people are not professional content creators.
46:10 Speaker 03 And they're not totally like after the algorithm and juicing the algorithm.
46:13 Nilay Patel? Right. And so Blue Sky just is much more of that. And Twitter used to be that, to whatever extent. And I think that that is going to be where that class of people wants to gather. Because the economics and the incentives of creator platform algorithms just
46:29 Speaker 03 Make it that way.
46:29 Nilay Patel? They just make it that way. And X is headed that way.
46:32 Speaker 03 Yep.
46:33 Nilay Patel? In like a meaningful, explicit way.
46:35 Speaker 03 All they know how to do.
46:36 Nilay Patel? Yeah. So that's what Elon wants. Like Elon's like, just don't do lazy links. Just like, put your content on the X platform.
46:41 David Pierce? I was just gonna say, I keep being really struck by how meaningful a thing it is that Blue Sky is the only one that's like, we love when you link to stuff. It's like, there's a whole group of people on the internet who are very important, who just link to stuff. And if all of those people go to Blue Sky like that, that's a pretty meaningful thing.
46:56 Nilay Patel? But I don't know if that ceiling is bigger than 325 million people.
46:59 David Pierce? Yeah, maybe not.
47:01 Nilay Patel? Like, that was as big as Twitter ever got.
47:04 Speaker 03 Comes back to my prediction from last week, we're all going to be just posting everywhere.
47:08 David Pierce? Yeah, I'm with you.
47:09 Speaker 03 But hopefully there's a system where it's easy.
47:12 David Pierce? All right, two more and then we're out of here. Apple launched the search engine. Call it, it doesn't have to look exactly like Google, but it is recognizably a web search engine.
47:20 Nilay Patel? Yes.
47:22 David Pierce? Yeah?
47:23 Nilay Patel? Apple's gonna start to hedge. And the AI will give them the cover to hedge.
47:26 Speaker 03 Yeah, I was gonna say, I think, yes, but it's under the guise of AI. And it might link into, you might be able to search ChatGPT or Gemini, or, I don't know, Claude, whatever businesses they actually partner with. I think we're gonna see those partnerships happen this year. And so that's their answer to search.
47:44 David Pierce? You think they do it?
47:45 Speaker 03 I think Apple also knows people are using these apps, these AI apps as search. So they're getting ahead of that and they will, well, they'll be a little bit behind that in some ways.
47:55 Nilay Patel? Apple also has a giant library of content that they don't really expose to anyone in Apple News.
48:01 Speaker 03 Yeah.
48:02 Nilay Patel? Like if what you want is like a bunch of recipes, they're in Apple News.
48:05 Speaker 03 Apple, I think this is a year for Apple News. Like more happens in Apple News. Or more hooks into Apple News, to your point.
48:13 Nilay Patel? Yeah, I mean, it's just.
48:14 Speaker 03 Cause I think that, I think Apple News is another place with that home display where they can really take advantage of it.
48:19 Nilay Patel? Oh, for sure. And if your thing is like the web is getting poisoned and search is bad and that thing, you know, like, well, I'll just point to people.
48:25 Speaker 03 Yeah.
48:25 Nilay Patel? High quality content.
48:26 Speaker 03 To the source.
48:28 Nilay Patel? I mean, if you go look at what's trending at Apple News, you will.
48:30 Speaker 03 Yeah, I'm aware. I'm aware.
48:32 Nilay Patel? It's like a lot of like old people yelling at stuff.
48:34 Speaker 03 Yeah.
48:35 Nilay Patel? Like the number one story at Apple News is always a BuzzFeed article that's like, why are these kids stupid?
48:40 Speaker 03 It's our like, I think, in post thing that's like ripped off three times from something else.
48:44 Nilay Patel? You can really get a sense of who a platform's users are.
48:47 Speaker 03 Yeah.
48:47 Nilay Patel? Probably the most popular post on the platform.
48:49 David Pierce? Yeah, I, I'm out on this one just because I think. The $20 billion from Google really spends and I think if you're Apple. Trying to balance those two things, you're just gonna land on the side of we're gonna keep taking the money as long as the money is here.
49:05 Speaker 03 And yeah, I mean, it doesn't necessarily mean they like change what happens through Safari search. I just think they're going to. Maybe they don't call it search.
49:13 David Pierce? But it was part of, part of the stuff that came up during the search trial was essentially Apple agreeing not to launch a search engine while they had these deals. So I think that stuff is just, I think, gonna take a while to unwind. I think if you gave me like three years instead of one year. I would say yes, but I don't know. Doesn't seem like it's gonna happen this fast, but you also may be right that like they're one button away from the chat GPT integration just being live web search. Like it just could happen.
49:37 Speaker 03 It's really slow and bothersome. Anyway.
49:40 David Pierce? Agreed. Okay, last one. The Nintendo Switch came out and I hate to break this to you, but it's kind of a bust.
49:47 Nilay Patel? Ooh, that's tough. It all, it all depends on the backend game.
49:54 Nilay Patel? No, I'm out. There's no way. They, they, they won't blow it. That's, that's too out of character for Nintendo.
49:59 David Pierce? I don't know. The Wii U exists. They did, they did do the Wii U.
50:04 Nilay Patel? No, no, still out.
50:06 David Pierce? No? All right. I want to believe, I'm saying, I'm saying no, just because I am at this moment avoiding buying a PS5 because I want the new Switch very badly. And if it sucks, I'm going to have wasted six months of not buying a game console.
50:23 Speaker 03 When is the Switch supposed to come out?
50:25 David Pierce? Sometime before the end of March was what Nintendo promised. So like with, we're, we're in the sort of any minute now phase.
50:34 Speaker 03 That changes some things for me.
50:37 Speaker 03 Hmm. They couldn't get it out before holiday? Anyway, I have no.
50:40 David Pierce? Maybe that's because it sucks.
50:41 Speaker 03 This is the first time I'm hearing of this, so I do not.
50:43 Nilay Patel? I don't know what video games are.
50:44 Speaker 03 What are video games? I'm gonna learn soon because I have a kid that's finally into video games.
50:49 David Pierce? You gonna buy him a Switch?
50:50 Speaker 03 Well, I was going to.
50:51 David Pierce? But maybe it sucks.
50:52 Speaker 03 But now I'm waiting because I don't know.
50:56 David Pierce? Hmm. I will say, I have.
50:58 Speaker 03 I should wait now.
50:59 David Pierce? The current Switch and it is slow and I would very much like the new one to be faster.
51:03 Speaker 03 I'm sure they'll do that. Okay. So I'm waiting then.
51:07 Nilay Patel? Yeah.
51:07 Speaker 03 It's successful because I have bought one.
51:12 Nilay Patel? You've already bought one.
51:13 David Pierce? Perfect.
51:13 Nilay Patel? Uh, no, there's no way that it's a bust.
51:15 David Pierce? Okay, great. I hope, I hope we're right. I believe in all of us. All right. I, this is too many things to go back over. I'm gonna put all the results in the show notes, but thank you both. This was delightful. Uh, we agreed more than I wanted to, but it's okay. We did all right.
51:29 Speaker 03 You seem like you've had a great year.
51:30 Nilay Patel? I've won.
51:31 Speaker 03 2025 was good to you, David.
51:32 David Pierce? 2025, listen, has been complicated.
51:34 Speaker 03 Yeah.
51:35 David Pierce? I've forgotten some of the details, um, but I'm killing it.
51:38 Speaker 03 Yeah.
51:38 David Pierce? That's all I can tell you.
51:39 Speaker 03 Yeah.
51:39 David Pierce? I'm on top of the world.
51:40 Speaker 03 You still fit in your clothes from 2024?
51:42 David Pierce? I, I have been wearing this sweater for 365 days and no one has noticed until you, just now.
51:47 Speaker 03 It's, you own that many versions of that sweater. It's a good year for you.
51:51 David Pierce? All right. Thank you both.
51:54 David Pierce? All right. That is it for the Vergecast today, and that's it for our two-part mini-series about 2025. Thank you to Neelai and Joanna for doing this deeply silly thing with me, and thank you, as always, for listening. I hope this was fun. I really enjoyed doing these two. We just got to have some wild speculation time, and that is rare in this business. We had a good time. There is lots more on all of this at theverge.com, and there's going to be lots more on all of this for the next year. I think inside of these two episodes, you can sort of see what we're thinking about for the next year. A lot's gonna change, a lot's gonna happen. We're probably not going to Mars in 2025, but a lot of things are gonna happen, and we're gonna be covering it all. So, keep it locked on theverge.com. It's a good website. I'm slightly biased, but I kinda like it. And,
52:39 David Pierce? as always, if you have thoughts, questions, feelings, or other things that you definitely, for sure, 100% think are gonna happen in 2025, you can always email us at [email protected] or call the hotline 866-VERGE11. We truly, truly love hearing from you. We're gonna do a couple more hotlines at the end of this year, and then we have a big plan for all of the stuff we're gonna get to do next year. So, keep calling, keep emailing, keep it locked on the Vergecast. This show is produced by Liam James, Will Por, and Eric Gomez. The Vergecast is Verge Production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. We'll be back on Tuesday and Friday with your regularly scheduled programming. We are nearing the end of the year, and we're gonna take a break at the end of the year, but we got a couple more fun things for you before we do. We'll see you then. Rock and roll.
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