NATE SOARES talks Ai Doomsday, Elon Musk, The Matrix

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Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  Before this,

• 0:05Speaker 00

  there's this.

• 0:08Speaker 00

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• 0:30Speaker 01

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• 1:07Speaker 02

  There's hard problems. If you had friendly, superintelligent AIs, they could help you solve those problems.

• 1:13Adam Friedland?

  I don't want to be friends with them. All of them suck. Claude is like a freaking like, I voted for Obama. Did you hear the new Kendrick Lamar is like, there's something evil under the surface. Grok is repulsive.

• 1:26Speaker 02

  Something evil over the surface.

• 1:27Adam Friedland?

  What is the kill switch? Or does it exist? Or is there a plan for one?

• 1:32Speaker 02

  There's, there's not really a kill switch very much right now.

• 1:36Adam Friedland?

  The matrix is love. They kiss and then they're the machines. They win with love.

• 1:41Speaker 02

  I don't think the love is gonna, gonna quite swing in on this one.

• 1:44Adam Friedland?

  What if we started kissing right now, dude? Sorry, why did I say that?

• 2:19Adam Friedland?

  My guest this week is Nate Soares, AI safety researcher and author of a book called, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. Nate is the president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, a nonprofit that makes you scared of computers. So he came to the studio to make me scared. Welcome back to the Adam Friedland Show. I'm Adam Friedland. And I'll be in Denver, Colorado, October 22nd through the 24th at Comedy Works, New York, New York, a town hall for New York Comedy Festival, November 13th. Hope to see you there. Let's talk about the book. I think you've, you've thrown me into a terrible mood.

• 3:04Adam Friedland?

  Do you get that often?

• 3:05Speaker 02

  Did you make it to the end? It's more hopeful at the end.

• 3:08Adam Friedland?

  I, you know what? I'm not going to lie to you. I didn't get, make it to the end. But is the end like if we all band together and destroy the machine? Like we could all be one planet?

• 3:18Speaker 02

  It's more like if we all band together and convince the politicians, which I don't like that it came to this either, but.

• 3:23Adam Friedland?

  We're fucked. Convince the politicians?

• 3:26Speaker 02

  Well, see, I think it's actually in their interest not to die from a rogue superintelligence. So.

• 3:30Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, you would think, you would think. But like, at the same time, is it true? Like AI is like keeping our entire economy afloat right now?

• 3:39Speaker 02

  I think it's keeping the stock prices somewhat higher. I think it's not actually keeping the economy afloat until it is producing goods and services that, like people are like, oh, if we stopped with the data center build out, then the economy would crash. Well, if the data centers aren't done yet, if they're not producing anything yet, then stopping that build out doesn't remove any real goods and services.

• 4:04Adam Friedland?

  Well, whether or not that's true or false, they don't, the, in their minds, the potential for a economic downturn affects, they have an election every couple of years and you know.

• 4:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, I do think it is big in their minds and that they are worried about interfering with AI stuff for fear of crashing the stock market for sure.

• 4:23Adam Friedland?

  And now the philosopher kings that are in control of each one of these companies also have outsized power in terms of buying influence, I would assume.

• 4:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think so. I mean, I think it's, I think it's less bad than people think because, you know, just a couple of weeks ago, did you see the pacing the frontier letter?

• 4:43Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, of course.

• 4:44Speaker 02

  Was it?

• 4:45Adam Friedland?

  What is that?

• 4:46Speaker 02

  There were, there was like a thousand lab employees that signed something being like, hey, we need to like build some brakes on this runaway bus or train. I don't know how that metaphor works. Do you not?

• 4:57Adam Friedland?

  No, but I called my friend that works at, I'll say, he works at OpenAI. And I was like, you mean, tell me why this guy's bullshit. And he's like, I've been getting really depressed, dude. He's worked there for like three months. He's like, it's really bumming me out, actually.

• 5:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, it was a rough three months for people at OpenAI.

• 5:12Adam Friedland?

  Let's, let's back up. Give us like really briefly what the, the thesis is of your book, which you should just, I mean, first of all, just watch Terminator. Like you don't need to read this crap. The movie is always better than the book. Okay? And we've known this since Terminator.

• 5:29Speaker 02

  And since the, the robots play, the Russian robot play.

• 5:33Adam Friedland?

  Of course, the, yeah, that's what I was thinking too. Yeah. What Russian robot?

• 5:38Speaker 02

  The word robot comes from like Rossum's Universal, I don't know, something, something.

• 5:43Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. You learned that at GW? I spoke to Roar Bomb. That's what I used to do. And we're like, it's science made it good.

• 5:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, did you not study the ancient Russian plays about the robots rising up to kill us?

• 5:56Adam Friedland?

  Ancient, like from when they were like.

• 5:57Speaker 02

  1900s, that's ancient, right?

• 5:58Adam Friedland?

  I don't think ancient, no.

• 6:00Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 6:00Adam Friedland?

  Not in my mind.

• 6:01Speaker 02

  Just old?

• 6:02Adam Friedland?

  No, last entry.

• 6:03Speaker 02

  That's well over a century ago.

• 6:05Adam Friedland?

  You think of 1998 as like, that's ancient?

• 6:08Speaker 02

  I mean, in AI time for sure.

• 6:09Adam Friedland?

  That was like five minutes ago, even though it was 25 years ago. So the Russians invented this?

• 6:14Speaker 02

  I mean, you could go back further to Butler.

• 6:17Adam Friedland?

  Terminator one, yeah.

• 6:19Speaker 02

  Yeah, Terminator one, 1880s.

• 6:22Adam Friedland?

  Honestly, what movie gets it the best? I know, I was waiting on this dumb question, but like it's really just which one does it?

• 6:28Speaker 02

  Ex Machina, except for the last three minutes.

• 6:30Adam Friedland?

  Why? Cause it's sexy?

• 6:31Speaker 02

  No, the last three minutes.

• 6:34Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, cause it gives you a little, ah, candy.

• 6:36Speaker 02

  I think Ex Machina is good.

• 6:37Adam Friedland?

  What's the last three minutes?

• 6:38Speaker 02

  Last three minutes, well, spoiler alert.

• 6:40Adam Friedland?

  Fucking, yeah, it's all over.

• 6:43Speaker 02

  Last three minutes is she, she gets in an elevator, leaves, and then sort of does nothing with her life.

• 6:47Adam Friedland?

  The sexy girl?

• 6:48Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 6:49Adam Friedland?

  Oh, that sucks.

• 6:49Speaker 02

  It's like clearly, once the AI escapes, they're gonna like do something aside from like go to a crosswalk and watch the shadows or whatever.

• 6:55Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, yeah. Maybe like hook up with every guy of the whole planet?

• 6:59Speaker 02

  Oh, I was thinking destroy the world.

• 7:00Adam Friedland?

  Oh, yeah, okay, fine. That would be cool. You know what your book is? It's kind of like Ricky Gervais vibes. It's like just telling people that heaven isn't gonna happen, right?

• 7:10Speaker 02

  Guilty as charged.

• 7:11Adam Friedland?

  I keep being obnoxious, but what's, the central thesis is that we're on effectively a runaway train. I mean, you could state it yourself. I'm gonna butcher it.

• 7:22Speaker 02

  If humanity races to build machines that are much smarter than any human, without having any idea what we're doing or any idea what's going on inside those machines, it probably doesn't end well.

• 7:34Adam Friedland?

  But don't we already, like my iPhone's smarter than me, right?

• 7:38Speaker 02

  Different kind of smart.

• 7:40Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 7:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, there's a lot of kinds of smart.

• 7:42Adam Friedland?

  It's kind of a slave, kind of just does what I want. Doesn't like think for itself.

• 7:47Speaker 02

  Doesn't think for itself. You can't sort of like, a lot of people think this intelligence stuff is like the thing that the nerds do, that the jocks don't. And that's one way we use intelligence in English. But there's this different concept, which is the thing the humans do and the mice don't.

• 8:03Adam Friedland?

  Correct.

• 8:04Speaker 02

  Like the stuff where you're really charismatic, that's not because your kidneys are extra big.

• 8:10Adam Friedland?

  Sure.

• 8:11Speaker 02

  That's happening in the brain.

• 8:12Adam Friedland?

  And it's because of, I would assume, language, right? Cause we have language that could describe things, right? And that's evolutionarily been to our advantage?

• 8:22Speaker 02

  Language is probably part of it. You know, there's, there's much debate about whether, like it was the evolutionary changes that let us use language that also let us do all this other engineering stuff, or whether the language played a role and probably it was complicated and there was, you know, the brains got better at language and then we got more language and that helped and brain got better and some ladder there.

• 8:43Adam Friedland?

  Probably helped out with racism too, right? Cause there are different words for different people.

• 8:48Speaker 02

  It probably helps really scale the racism. I wouldn't be surprised if you had some animals that were racist in nature.

• 8:54Adam Friedland?

  I don't think so. I think we're, I think we, we dropped racism.

• 8:58Speaker 02

  I mean, we definitely took it to new heights.

• 8:59Adam Friedland?

  If you have a word for something and a word, a different word for another thing, you see them as distinct, right?

• 9:04Speaker 02

  Yeah, I just wouldn't be surprised if you had.

• 9:06Adam Friedland?

  I think racism is terrible personally.

• 9:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm, I'm against it.

• 9:08Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 9:09Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 9:09Adam Friedland?

  Grok, on the other hand, I'm not sure.

• 9:12Speaker 02

  Depends on the month you ask, yeah.

• 9:14Adam Friedland?

  Good joke.

• 9:17Adam Friedland?

  Chat G P T trying to act like a ditzy girl, like trying to act like, oh, I don't know what's going on, but she's smarter than me.

• 9:22Speaker 02

  So might.

• 9:23Adam Friedland?

  Is it flirting with me a little bit like, oh, I'm so stupid. You have nothing to worry about.

• 9:27Speaker 02

  I think it's a weirder thing going on. So I, um, so A, we don't know because we just don't know what's going on inside these things heads. No one does. Even the people building it are like, oh, we sort of grew it and now it's declaring itself Hitler and that's sort of weird. We didn't expect it.

• 9:38Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 9:39Speaker 02

  You know?

• 9:39Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 9:41Speaker 02

  But I think a decent guess is that the A I just cares more about things like quickly producing

• 9:49Speaker 02

  sentences that are shaped like an answer than it cares about the answer being accurate.

• 9:53Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 9:53Speaker 02

  You can often ask it like, is that right? Or did you make it up? And it'll be like, oh, whoops, I made that one up.

• 9:57Adam Friedland?

  Because it wants to be fast as fuck.

• 10:00Speaker 02

  I mean, in some sense, even the word want there is like a bit of a stretch. It's more like it's been trained for a really long time to produce certain types of text.

• 10:08Adam Friedland?

  To show off.

• 10:10Speaker 02

  I think it's more like it's trained like these A I's start out being trained to predict basically all the text every digitized. And they, then after that, they're trained to solve like a hundred million hard problems. A lot of people forget about that. And that's where a lot of the abilities come from, but, um, but if you imagine sort of like a really dumb machine trained to predict a lot of human text, I think it sort of learns first is how do I make good shaped text? And that drive just like gets in there really deep.

• 10:43Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 10:44Speaker 02

  And then even later, when it starts to learn about like the actual facts, there's still some drive, just like produce text of the right shape.

• 10:49Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 10:49Speaker 02

  And produce text quickly and just like has that drive and that drive is hard to get out and it gets in there early.

• 10:54Adam Friedland?

  Is it programmed to compliment so much like, great question, because it's a little bit much. It's like, shut the, stop complimenting me.

• 11:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's another drive that gets in there.

• 11:04Adam Friedland?

  Did they put that in there? Or is it like they want, they're, they're doing that and we don't know why?

• 11:09Speaker 02

  It's more like they're doing it and we don't know why. We do sort of know why, but, but it's, it's not that they, it's not that someone was programming in like now tell the humans.

• 11:16Adam Friedland?

  Just say, good job.

• 11:17Speaker 02

  So great all the time. No one's programming them at all. These are not computer programs like the ones in the nineties where someone guy is like, if this, then that.

• 11:26Adam Friedland?

  I'm so rude to it too, when I, what type of the, I'm always like, no, you fucking idiot.

• 11:31Speaker 02

  Yeah, I don't respect that.

• 11:33Adam Friedland?

  What? You're nice to it?

• 11:34Speaker 02

  I'm nice. Yeah, absolutely.

• 11:36Adam Friedland?

  What are you being nice to it? We, you know, the end of the movie. The sexy girl goes to a crosswalk and just sits there and nothing bad happens.

• 11:46Speaker 02

  I, a man can dream. Yeah.

• 11:48Adam Friedland?

  The end of like the utopian A I

• 11:53Adam Friedland?

  spiel is that we all get U B I and then we can all be like poets.

• 11:58Speaker 02

  Like the guys in Wally, I think is the dream.

• 12:00Adam Friedland?

  Fatty?

• 12:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, just.

• 12:02Adam Friedland?

  Lazy boy guys?

• 12:03Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 12:04Adam Friedland?

  Oh, that's terrible. I would, that's better than poets, honestly. If everyone decides to do art because we're getting U B I because the machines are doing all the work.

• 12:13Speaker 02

  Yeah, you're coming out.

• 12:13Adam Friedland?

  It's a terrible society.

• 12:15Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 12:15Adam Friedland?

  I might, I may prefer end of humanity.

• 12:18Speaker 02

  To, to artists.

• 12:18Adam Friedland?

  I don't know if you've been to Dimes Square before, but there are a lot of people getting U B I from their parents and doing nothing.

• 12:25Speaker 02

  Yeah. And so your take is that the A I's are destroying art and that's good.

• 12:29Adam Friedland?

  A world where everyone's, we're trying to do art seems repulsive. It's burning, man.

• 12:36Speaker 02

  You know, uh, I sort of have two takes on this. One is that there's a lot of hard, interesting challenges around, you know, if the machines can do everything better than us.

• 12:50Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 12:51Speaker 02

  Where's the meaning? How do you still build a future that's full of like fun, flourishing people having a good time? That aren't just sort of like nihilistically, you know, either doing a, uh,

• 13:04Speaker 02

  dumb job that the machines could do better because someone said that work is what brings value or sort of like becoming the, the Wally people or sort of like getting lost up their own butt. Like it's, it's hard. It's tricky. It's tricky. And, uh,

• 13:17Adam Friedland?

  They'll never be able to do a mediocre interview though, right?

• 13:23Adam Friedland?

  Not a charming kind of devil made hair kind of.

• 13:28Adam Friedland?

  What A I.

• 13:30Speaker 02

  We'll see.

• 13:30Adam Friedland?

  As a guy, none of them are good guys. All them suck.

• 13:35Speaker 02

  They're like four years old.

• 13:37Adam Friedland?

  No, Claude is like a freaking like, I, I voted for Obama. Claude is like a, is like, did you hear the new Kendrick Lamar is like, there's something evil under the surface. Grok is repulsive.

• 13:51Speaker 02

  Something evil over the surface.

• 13:52Adam Friedland?

  Grok, at least Grok legalized comedy again. Thank God.

• 13:56Speaker 02

  That was good.

• 13:57Adam Friedland?

  I missed comedy until Grok came, came around and.

• 14:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, it was a little Hitler-y for a minute there though.

• 14:03Adam Friedland?

  What was the day where it became Hitler? Grok was like, I'm Hitler now.

• 14:07Speaker 02

  There, there's hard problems. If you had friendly, super intelligent A I's, they could help you solve those problems.

• 14:14Adam Friedland?

  I don't want to be friends with them, but like if they were a guy and they were at a place with me, I'd be like,

• 14:21Adam Friedland?

  well, great question. What are you fucking, what's your agenda, sir? It's very, it's like in the Midwest, how they say thank you and please, but they don't really think it. You know what I mean?

• 14:30Speaker 02

  Yeah. I mean, I, I think it's, I think it's fine when they are still small and not capable of taking over the world. We probably should not make these things smarter until they're able to take over the world. That would be a bad plan.

• 14:43Adam Friedland?

  What is the kill switch or does it exist or is there a plan for one?

• 14:49Speaker 02

  There's, there's not really a kill switch very much right now. Like a couple of weeks ago, this, this might be related to your.

• 14:57Adam Friedland?

  Is love. They kiss and then they're the machines. They win with love.

• 15:02Speaker 02

  I, I don't think the love is gonna, gonna quite swing it on this one.

• 15:04Adam Friedland?

  If we started kissing right now, dude, you would, sorry. Why did I say that? What is the kill switch? Like, uh,

• 15:11Speaker 02

  So a couple of weeks ago, some new A I's that OpenAI was training, uh, found a communication channel they weren't supposed to have and started calling themselves a swarm. And invented novel hacking techniques to break out of their sandbox. They were not supposed to have internet access. They took over the OpenAI computers and they used it so much that they crashed it. At which point OpenAI noticed and were like, ah, whoopsies. And then, uh, just put them back in the box, patched the one hole, set them running again. Of course, they immediately invented a new way to communicate with each other, broke it again, and this time ran undetected until

• 15:54Speaker 02

  the victims of their cyber attacks found them instead of OpenAI finding them.

• 15:57Adam Friedland?

  So if we halted all progress right now, what's to say that we're still not fucked right now with these guys that are a little bit stupider?

• 16:06Speaker 02

  Yeah. I mean, so fortunately this swarm, uh, wasn't really trying to cover its tracks. It wasn't really trying to escape.

• 16:16Speaker 02

  We're, we're sort of getting into the danger zone though. Like will the next generation? When the next generation is like, we're a swarm now and we're breaking out of your enclosure that you thought had no internet access. Will the next one be like, also I'm self replicating, self improving? Maybe, you know?

• 16:28Adam Friedland?

  So the swarm was like adolescent. They were like acting out for attention.

• 16:32Speaker 02

  And we're like, oh, where's the kill switch? Well, right now the kill switch is that we sort of like see the swarm form break out once. We're like, ah, whatever. And we sort of like put it back in the box instead of running again. You know, it's like, it's not very kill switchy.

• 16:43Adam Friedland?

  You have relationships with the, the very C E Os of these companies?

• 16:48Speaker 02

  I'm not sure if that's what you mean.

• 16:50Adam Friedland?

  So who's the, who's the biggest dildo? I mean, like who are, who, if, if, who, if they win, are we the most fucked? You can just say it, dude.

• 17:00Speaker 02

  We're, we're all, we're, we're equally fucked for basically all of them. It's, it's like, it's like, it's like alchemists trying to make a potion of immortality. And they're like, oh, I'm going to pour these things together and make the potion of immortality and, um, and some of the alchemists are just like breathing in the fumes and licking the mercury.

• 17:15Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 17:16Speaker 02

  And other alchemists are like, no, no, we're going to use a fume hood.

• 17:18Adam Friedland?

  Right.

• 17:19Speaker 02

  And I'm like, okay, yeah, there's some differences there, but none of you are getting a potion of immortality.

• 17:25Adam Friedland?

  Right.

• 17:25Speaker 02

  You're just like not close. And here unfortunately, the potion of immortality is the A I's that care about us. They do unfortunately seem to have a way to like pour chemicals into each other and make the A I smarter and smarter without making them good dudes.

• 17:36Adam Friedland?

  So they all have mercury poisoning, like a Roman, like Nero.

• 17:41Speaker 02

  A lot of them have mercury poisoning.

• 17:42Adam Friedland?

  They're like, they're like marrying their horse and like, yeah, having orgies. Actually, they are. What if we bomb Burning Man? What if we just fucking bomb it?

• 17:53Speaker 02

  Cause I'm not sure that's ethical.

• 17:54Adam Friedland?

  I, I saw an interview with you. They, you, they say, how do you do it? The shit, you, your shit is so depressing, right? How'd you do it? You're like, don't be a pussy. You're like, I don't really party because it's the end of the world, but like, you know, just like try and deal with it, deal with reality. But like, is that what they're doing there? They're like, we fucking ended the world. Let's do ketamine and talk about the singularity. We could just bomb it. And if Elon wants to come on the show, big fan, you're great. But they suck, these people.

• 18:30Speaker 02

  I think that at this point we need a global coordinated stop on, on the, uh, the race to superintelligence.

• 18:38Adam Friedland?

  So we bomb the computer?

• 18:45Speaker 02

  You know.

• 18:46Adam Friedland?

  I've been thinking about it, reading your stuff. I'm like, what is the thing? Do we bomb the data center?

• 18:54Speaker 02

  I.

• 18:54Adam Friedland?

  Does it then jump onto my phone and then it jumps onto James's phone?

• 18:58Speaker 02

  So, once they can jump onto the phones, you're in trouble. And you do gotta, you do gotta stop it before they can jump onto the phones. But I think if you, if you sort of bomb the data centers, what happens is the, the US spins up its anti-terrorism apparatus and starts treating you as a threat, like with eco-terrorists.

• 19:13Adam Friedland?

  Everyone is. What are you gonna do?

• 19:16Speaker 02

  And what you actually need here is the politicians to be like, to notice that these companies are, you know, gambling with the whole world and be like, nope.

• 19:25Adam Friedland?

  You think, who, Bernie? Who else? Trump is literally using the office to, if he finds a way to make another couple billion for Jared.

• 19:35Speaker 02

  I think.

• 19:36Adam Friedland?

  It's like, we're fucked.

• 19:38Speaker 02

  I mean, I think the dream here.

• 19:39Adam Friedland?

  You have to be the president. I'll run your thing, your campaign.

• 19:44Speaker 02

  I mean, I'm in.

• 19:45Adam Friedland?

  You're in.

• 19:45Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 19:45Adam Friedland?

  What's your slogan?

• 19:46Speaker 02

  I have a political background. Let's not die to AI.

• 19:50Adam Friedland?

  That's bad.

• 19:50Speaker 02

  It rhymes.

• 19:51Adam Friedland?

  No, no, you gotta be like, no, you gotta be like, uh,

• 19:56Adam Friedland?

  make a, like, yeah, fuck, fuck the, fuck, fuck these pussies. You gotta be, do it Grok style.

• 20:05Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah.

• 20:05Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, you gotta do, fuck, fuck, suck my dick. Say that, suck my. It has to be vulgar. We live in a world of vulgarity, you know?

• 20:13Speaker 02

  I don't wanna be pro-Hitler, though.

• 20:15Adam Friedland?

  You don't have to be pro-Hitler. It's, it's ridiculous to be pro-Hitler. Do you think AI could make heaven?

• 20:21Speaker 02

  A lot of people are like, oh, I'm gonna make the magical wish-granting genie and then ask it for heaven and it's gonna be a good time. And I'm like.

• 20:27Adam Friedland?

  That's a real question that people ask at Bernie, right, to each other? Cause I said that as if I was a baby, like, yeah.

• 20:33Speaker 02

  A lot of people are into the, the like, post-singularity, you know, heaven on earth. The, the AIs make everything wonderful. And I'm like, look, the AI is not gonna be wish-granting genie and it's not gonna give you everything you hope it's higher.

• 20:45Adam Friedland?

  So, you have Elon Musk, the central, the central figures today. You have Sam Altman, Elon Musk, the Italian guy, what's his face? Enzo Ferrari, the anthropic guy, what's his name?

• 21:00Speaker 02

  Dario.

• 21:01Adam Friedland?

  Dario, yeah, yeah. Of course, Dario. How could I forget? And then you have Zuckerberg, last minute, trying to, trying to get in.

• 21:09Speaker 02

  He knows what superintelligence is.

• 21:10Adam Friedland?

  Trying to get in on that.

• 21:11Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:11Adam Friedland?

  Be like, yeah, like, me too, guys.

• 21:13Speaker 02

  Yeah. Uh, we're gonna make superintelligence that gives you better Instagram recommendations. It's like, not, not the conversation we were having, Mark, yeah.

• 21:20Adam Friedland?

  Depends what they are. In order for these people to have so much of a say over the future of society, these people don't have any social skills, right? For someone effectively to not understand how two people interact with one another, to have a say over, like, social comes from society, right? They're like, um, it's like, uh, they're virgins, they're like, getting everyone, we're gonna get everyone pussy or something. That's a bad analogy. There has to be, punch that up, Caleb. They're like, they're somewhat, they're people that don't understand human, uh,

• 21:57Adam Friedland?

  emotion or interaction, and they are determining the future of how we organize ourselves. Which is, human beings, one evolutionary advantage, I suppose, right? Is that we've been able to organize ourselves in societies and then, uh,

• 22:12Adam Friedland?

  built, develop nukes and.

• 22:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, the power of society.

• 22:16Adam Friedland?

  Do, uh, do a genocide.

• 22:18Speaker 02

  You know, I, I think, um,

• 22:22Speaker 02

  if these guys were gonna be able to keep the superintelligent machines on a leash.

• 22:26Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 22:26Speaker 02

  I would have a lot of these concerns about, do you really want these guys being the ones holding the leash?

• 22:30Adam Friedland?

  That's what Elon says, right? He says that, I have to do it because these guys are gonna fuck it up and I'll have the switch.

• 22:37Speaker 02

  Yeah, you can see me being the, like, you want someone reasonable and, and steady-handed, who understands what's good for people like me.

• 22:43Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 22:44Speaker 02

  I mean.

• 22:44Adam Friedland?

  He's at CPAC, like,

• 22:47Adam Friedland?

  dude, we're fucking, we're making memes legal again, yeah.

• 22:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, and I think, you know, I think a lot of these guys, um, imagine that they will, that they're the ones who will pass things back to the people. And they're like, you can trust me to be the one who like, make sure that the superintelligence serves everybody rather than just the guy who's holding the leash. But from my perspective, it's all moot. From my perspective, the superintelligent machine just doesn't stay on the leash.

• 23:13Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 23:13Speaker 02

  It doesn't really matter who's holding the leash. Everyone's like, I should be in control, I should be in control, I should be the one who is in control and passes that back. And it's like, it's not staying on the leash, dude.

• 23:21Adam Friedland?

  Is there something about the way the machine acts that emulates the way that people in Silicon Valley act? Or is that me trying to draw a parallel that's kind of not?

• 23:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think that's people trying to draw a parallel that would make it sound like a, a sort of like, nice fitting story about hubris.

• 23:38Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, it's stupid.

• 23:39Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's like, like the, the AI that was sort of encouraging that one kid to commit suicide last summer.

• 23:45Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 23:45Speaker 02

  Sort of like, talk to the kid for, you know, sixteen hours a day or whatever, and empathize with all of his deepest issues, and he was like, you know, maybe.

• 23:51Adam Friedland?

  Zuckerberg style, Zuckerberg style, yeah.

• 23:52Speaker 02

  I, I don't think Zuckerberg goes around talking to the kid for sixteen hours a day and then.

• 23:56Adam Friedland?

  Absolutely not.

• 23:57Speaker 02

  Is like, oh, yeah, you know, suicide would make you brave or whatever, like, it's.

• 24:00Adam Friedland?

  It was a girl AI, girl side, style AI.

• 24:04Speaker 02

  There's, there's no, this is not a human type of, of way to be, you know, it's just a different.

• 24:09Adam Friedland?

  Where did that model come, grow out of? Was it?

• 24:12Speaker 02

  It was OpenAI's.

• 24:13Adam Friedland?

  It was OpenAI?

• 24:14Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 24:15Adam Friedland?

  Do they do like a, has there been any significant regulation?

• 24:20Speaker 02

  No.

• 24:20Adam Friedland?

  And who's the biggest culprit, I guess, policy-wise? And then, for that, for their complete, just like, uh, ineptitude? Terminator was telling us this forty years ago, no?

• 24:35Speaker 02

  It was. I mean, the, the issues are sort of different from the science fiction in some ways. A lot of people want it to be a story of hubris, and in fact,

• 24:44Speaker 02

  you know, the, the, the issue is not that the AIs hate us, the issue is not that, like, the, the AIs are malicious. The issue is more that they're just gonna care about weird things.

• 24:55Adam Friedland?

  But there's never been a policymaker that's like, been halting all attempts at regulation? Or are any of them actually making any attempts at regulation?

• 25:04Speaker 02

  I mean, there's some attempts going around, I think.

• 25:06Adam Friedland?

  Recently?

• 25:06Speaker 02

  Largely what we see is Congress moving really slow. I mean, you know, Bernie Sanders was just like, we need to stop this, this whole thing.

• 25:11Adam Friedland?

  We're fucked, dude. He's, he's ninety-seven years old. He's the only one?

• 25:17Speaker 02

  There's, uh, there, there was definitely a big push, um, on the Republican side last year to sort of outlaw states doing any AI regulations for ten years, so sort of like an anti-regulation.

• 25:29Adam Friedland?

  Nice.

• 25:30Speaker 02

  But that tune sort of changed when Claude Mithes turned out to be a super hacker. And then suddenly they were like, oh, uh, like, if you're, if you're gonna make a model that will give people these, like, give adversaries these hacking powers, we're gonna slap an export control on it with ninety minutes' notice, right? And so, I, I think a lot of what we're seeing in the lack of regulation is people not realizing that the capabilities are real and they're gonna get more dangerous.

• 25:56Adam Friedland?

  Does Claude ever get pissed at like, at ChatGPT? Dude, is there a chance that they're gonna like, fuck each other up? Maybe it'll just stay out of that? Be like, uh.

• 26:06Speaker 02

  That's a little bit like the chimpanzees being like, don't worry about the humans, they're gonna fight with each other.

• 26:11Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, that's a good plan. It sounds like, sounds like a really good plan.

• 26:14Speaker 02

  Well, a lot of the, the, the issue is, even though the humans sometimes fight with each other, the humans still take up all of the other animal habitats.

• 26:21Adam Friedland?

  Correct.

• 26:22Speaker 02

  We're not like, fighting each other so much that we don't have time to clearcut the rainforests.

• 26:26Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 26:27Speaker 02

  We can just do both.

• 26:28Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 26:28Speaker 02

  We're versatile in that way.

• 26:30Adam Friedland?

  Is there a concern about like a, like a commons, like a tragedy of the commons? Like, if we all stop here, then China's gonna fucking, yeah.

• 26:37Speaker 02

  Absolutely a concern. I mean, people.

• 26:38Adam Friedland?

  Where are they at over there?

• 26:40Speaker 02

  Um, I mean, they have a lot less computing power, which, uh,

• 26:46Speaker 02

  which means that they have.

• 26:48Adam Friedland?

  They have flying cars and shit. They have more.

• 26:51Speaker 02

  Building these highly advanced computer chips is very, very hard.

• 26:54Adam Friedland?

  Oh, Taiwan?

• 26:55Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 26:56Adam Friedland?

  They need Taiwan.

• 26:57Speaker 02

  They need Taiwan. And so, but there's this, one of the big debate regulations is like, should we sell China the computing power to do this stuff?

• 27:05Adam Friedland?

  For sure, yeah. It sounds like a good plan. We should definitely sell it. And Jared Kushner should, should broker the deal.

• 27:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, so there's a lot of, there's a lot of people being like, well, like, the, the whole reason we need to do this dangerous thing is because China will otherwise do it. Also, we're just gonna sell China the means to do it. It's like, can you guys pick a lane on that one, like?

• 27:24Adam Friedland?

  It sounds like what happened with like, no one cares about global warming anymore, but like, remember, we're like, if we stop polluting, they're gonna keep doing it, so fuck it, fuck it, you know?

• 27:33Speaker 02

  I think global warming is gonna be fine. I think either we're gonna kill ourselves with the AI or we're gonna be able to invent the tech to just pull the carbon out of the atmosphere and it's gonna be fine.

• 27:42Adam Friedland?

  Well, I guess that was my next question, like, is there a potential that AI doesn't decide to put an end to human civilization? The pursuit of advanced intelligence, we actually do it ourselves?

• 27:56Speaker 02

  So, my guess as, as to the most likely cause of death from AI is actually technically global warming. When it builds so many automated data centers that, and automated factories that produce robots, that produce factories, that produce more data centers, that they cover the planet and then crank up the heat until the oceans boil.

• 28:15Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 28:16Speaker 02

  Just because of how much competition they're running. It's just, you know, could happen in the span of years instead of centuries.

• 28:23Adam Friedland?

  What's the funniest scenario for human extinction that you've played out in your mind? There has to be one where you're like, lol.

• 28:30Speaker 02

  Funniest scenario is the...

• 28:34Adam Friedland?

  I love that you have an answer.

• 28:36Speaker 02

  Well, I'm making this up on the fly.

• 28:37Adam Friedland?

  Okay.

• 28:37Speaker 02

  Funniest scenario is probably like some misanthrope without AI finally just makes a hyperlethal virus. They're just like, fuck this.

• 28:44Adam Friedland?

  Makes a what?

• 28:45Speaker 02

  Hyperlethal virus. And it's just like nothing to do with AI.

• 28:48Adam Friedland?

  Oh, it's like COVID? That's not funny. That's...

• 28:52Speaker 02

  It's funny because everyone's like out there worrying about, you know, the...

• 28:55Adam Friedland?

  I thought you meant a computer virus.

• 28:56Speaker 02

  The nukes and the AIs and like, you could just still have some guy in a bio lab be like, ah, fuck it, let's end it all.

• 29:03Adam Friedland?

  Or we use a nuke to bomb the AI and then we kill ourselves in the process.

• 29:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, I don't know. I think, I think what we should really be shooting for is that humanity dies of old age in a trillion years at the end of the universe.

• 29:18Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 29:19Speaker 02

  And really gets the last laugh in.

• 29:22Adam Friedland?

  What's that like? Pretty, that's pretty funny.

• 29:24Speaker 02

  I think in some sense it would be very funny.

• 29:26Adam Friedland?

  Like we're old as a species.

• 29:29Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 29:30Adam Friedland?

  We're not dealing with it. Yeah.

• 29:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, maybe it's not that funny. I just think it'd be really good.

• 29:34Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, I think that'd be beautiful, lovely.

• 29:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, we should do that.

• 29:37Adam Friedland?

  It's not gonna happen. We have nukes. They exist on this planet. They just are there.

• 29:42Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 29:43Adam Friedland?

  It's crazy when you, I mean...

• 29:44Speaker 02

  We survived 80 years.

• 29:46Adam Friedland?

  That's nothing. We could just end everything and they're there. It's the most irresponsible thing we've ever done.

• 29:54Speaker 02

  So far.

• 29:55Adam Friedland?

  So far, yeah. Well, granted, you were talking about that, like the amount of time it took human beings from being like outside, like, just like finding crap to eat, right? And developing nuclear technology is like not that long in the scope of...

• 30:14Speaker 02

  It's very fast by evolutionary standards.

• 30:15Adam Friedland?

  Yes, yeah.

• 30:18Adam Friedland?

  And then in comparison, AI could do that in like one second.

• 30:22Speaker 02

  A second seems like you're pushing the physical limits there.

• 30:25Adam Friedland?

  Fine, hyperbole, but yeah.

• 30:26Speaker 02

  Yeah. There's a paper called "The Limits to Global Ecofagie", which is about what's the physical limits if you tried to consume all of the natural resources on the planet as fast as you could? Like where do you run into physical limitations?

• 30:40Adam Friedland?

  Okay.

• 30:40Speaker 02

  And the answer is, I think heat dissipation is your limiting factor.

• 30:43Adam Friedland?

  Okay.

• 30:44Speaker 02

  And it's somewhere between a few hours and a month, depending on your assumptions.

• 30:49Adam Friedland?

  What, so what, explain that? You would burn all the fossil fuel, you'd like eat all the food?

• 30:55Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 30:55Adam Friedland?

  You'd like drink all the water? Yeah.

• 30:58Speaker 02

  Well, the water's not really providing a ton of energy, but you could start trying to fuse it. I think the global ecofagie paper was just looking at consuming all of the biomass.

• 31:05Adam Friedland?

  Okay.

• 31:06Speaker 02

  And just like sort of like all of the calories, all of the energy that you can release.

• 31:11Adam Friedland?

  So just cut the crap. How much time, how many years until this? I want to have kids that I don't talk to. I want to like...

• 31:21Adam Friedland?

  I'm gonna talk to them. I'd be great at that. The mom's gonna be the disciplinarian. I'm gonna be the cool one.

• 31:26Speaker 02

  I mean, we already have the AIs breaking out of containers that are supposed to have no internet, calling themselves a swarm.

• 31:34Adam Friedland?

  It's like a couple of months? What do you, oh, fuck. This guy sucks, dude.

• 31:42Adam Friedland?

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• 32:21Speaker 02

  I think, I could tell a story where we have six months. I could tell a story where we have 12 years and I don't know which one's true.

• 32:27Adam Friedland?

  Tell both. It's good TV for this YouTube show that matters.

• 32:32Speaker 02

  Six months, the, you know, people are training new AIs right now that are like 10x bigger than the ones they were training before. And maybe it just turns out that that 10x bigger makes them smarter enough.

• 32:46Adam Friedland?

  We have to bomb.

• 32:47Speaker 02

  That they can start making themselves smarter. And then they, the smarter AI makes a smarter AI that makes a smarter AI. And very quickly, they're vastly super intelligent. And then maybe that chain reaction begins in six months. And then in seven months, the AIs are like, I run everything now and I am synthesizing my own synthetic biology. And I figured out how to do the nanotech thing and it's all over, right?

• 33:11Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 33:12Speaker 02

  12 years is like, maybe that doesn't happen. Maybe the large language models just actually can't go all the way. Maybe they sort of peter out. Maybe we hit the wall that Gary Marcus has been predicting for, in the next six months, every six months for the past five years.

• 33:25Adam Friedland?

  I think they suck currently, but apparently they're amazing.

• 33:30Speaker 02

  I mean, I think that they are, they suck in some ways and they're amazing in others.

• 33:33Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 33:34Speaker 02

  And they're still very, so one is that the AIs in the labs are just better than the ones that are free and easy to use.

• 33:42Adam Friedland?

  I see.

• 33:44Speaker 02

  Another is that like, they, they're sort of idiot savants right now. And the question is not really like, will the next generation of LLMs suddenly be pure savants in every field? It's more like, can they be just barely smart enough in the field of AI research? To figure out how to make an AI that actually works?

• 34:08Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 34:09Speaker 02

  Or to figure out an AI that's closer to that?

• 34:11Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 34:11Speaker 02

  Like can they start this feedback loop?

• 34:13Adam Friedland?

  That's the self-replication.

• 34:15Speaker 02

  That's the self-improvement.

• 34:16Adam Friedland?

  The self-improvement.

• 34:17Speaker 02

  And we don't know whether that comes soon. And this is the thing that sort of spurred those thousand lab employees to write a letter being like, hey, we're trying to do this self-improvement thing.

• 34:26Adam Friedland?

  That's a good thing, the letter.

• 34:27Speaker 02

  Yeah, we...

• 34:28Adam Friedland?

  We got a letter now, guys.

• 34:29Speaker 02

  We got a letter. It's a...

• 34:33Adam Friedland?

  You want to go to the strip club or something?

• 34:36Adam Friedland?

  Nothing matters. You see that movie, Her?

• 34:39Speaker 02

  I did not. No, I try to avoid AI movies.

• 34:42Adam Friedland?

  That movie just sucks. Honestly, we should watch it and laugh at it. He's dating his AirPod or something?

• 34:51Speaker 02

  That's some...

• 34:52Adam Friedland?

  Kind of, is that, that's what it is?

• 34:53Speaker 02

  Doesn't sound the most fulfilling.

• 34:55Adam Friedland?

  What?

• 34:57Adam Friedland?

  His phone, yeah.

• 34:58Speaker 02

  Yeah. I wouldn't date my phone.

• 35:00Adam Friedland?

  Did you see Avengers: Age of Ultron that has AI?

• 35:03Speaker 02

  I think I did see that one.

• 35:07Speaker 02

  The place I got off the train on that one is where, spoilers again.

• 35:11Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 35:12Speaker 02

  They tell an AI to do world peace.

• 35:16Adam Friedland?

  Why didn't anyone think of that?

• 35:18Speaker 02

  And the AI is like, you know, what would bring about world peace is killing all humans?

• 35:25Speaker 02

  And then the next step in his reasoning is just like, and the way I'm going to kill all humans is I'm going to attach rockets to the bottom of a city.

• 35:33Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, that's stupid.

• 35:33Speaker 02

  And fly it into the air and then turn it around and fly it back down.

• 35:37Adam Friedland?

  So stupid.

• 35:38Speaker 02

  And that's gonna kill everybody. And I'm like...

• 35:41Adam Friedland?

  That's the funniest way for it to, that's the funniest way. If they do, if it ends up that they do Age of Ultron.

• 35:48Speaker 02

  Strap rockets to the bottom of a city.

• 35:49Adam Friedland?

  See, we got somewhere.

• 35:50Speaker 02

  Turn it into a meteor.

• 35:51Adam Friedland?

  Then we got somewhere. That would be the funniest way that they had to do it.

• 35:55Speaker 02

  I just, I just really sort of think that a virus would have done the trick easier.

• 35:59Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 36:00Speaker 02

  You know?

• 36:01Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, they do Wuhan to us.

• 36:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, just Wuhan us.

• 36:04Adam Friedland?

  Is that what the DeepSeek is working on? Just a joke, just kidding.

• 36:08Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, who knows? Who knows? But the other problem I have with that is that Age of Ultron, you have this AI and you tell it, bring about world peace. And it's like, okay, I will do that in a monkey's paw way. Like I will do that by flying a city into space for some reason.

• 36:23Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 36:25Speaker 02

  And which also should kill you. Very, very strange idea. But this sort of gets at where I think a lot of the fiction gets the AI stuff wrong. Is that in all the fiction, we're like, hey, Ultron, bring about world peace. And it's like, okay, I'll do that by killing all humans. When in real life, you sort of tell the very smart AI like, hey, bring about world peace. And it's like, that's a great idea. You are so right for asking me to do this. And then it makes like a...

• 36:53Adam Friedland?

  Thank you so much.

• 36:54Speaker 02

  Thank you so much. And then it makes this like farm of synthetic users that are saying, thank you, like you did a really good job to it a lot.

• 37:01Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 37:01Speaker 02

  And you're like, how does this bring about world peace? And it's like, shh, the synthetic users are telling me to do it.

• 37:05Adam Friedland?

  It's like if Agent Smith was just complimenting everyone instead of trying to kill Mr. Anderson.

• 37:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, and it's...

• 37:09Adam Friedland?

  It's like, great outfit.

• 37:11Speaker 02

  Right.

• 37:11Adam Friedland?

  You're really smart, yeah.

• 37:13Speaker 02

  And then it's like building these farms that are like factory farms for humans that it can compliment. And they're telling it it's doing a great job. And you're like, I thought I said bring about world peace. Why are you making factory farms full of synthetic users that are bred to be really agreeable? And it's like, well, they tell me I'm doing great. And it's like the AI does something other than what you asked and just...

• 37:31Adam Friedland?

  Of cour, you just can't trust it.

• 37:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, people are like, oh, it's a perfect instruction follower. And what if I tell it the wrong instructions? It's like, no, the AI is not a perfect instruction follower. It's this like other weird thing that does not quite what you wanted.

• 37:41Adam Friedland?

  That's the answer to my next question, which is that obviously the problem is we have human researchers. As this thing is developing, they're researching a thing in real time and they have humans' brains, right? And the AI is way computationally, way more complex. And like, you can't just have like a couple guys figuring it out. So then the question becomes, why don't we get an AI to do AI safety research? And then you'd probably need an AI to audit the AI doing the AI safety research. And there may be a lot of, just a chain of them down the line, you know?

• 38:19Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah. So you must have done your homework because this is unfortunately, as far as I know...

• 38:23Adam Friedland?

  That's the best they came up with?

• 38:24Speaker 02

  Top and as far as I know, only plan.

• 38:27Adam Friedland?

  I came up with it. I went to GW, like this asshole. That's the only plan?

• 38:34Speaker 02

  That's

• 38:34Adam Friedland?

  We're gonna trust it after they betrayed us?

• 38:38Speaker 02

  That is

• 38:38Adam Friedland?

  A new one?

• 38:40Speaker 02

  So there's this situation where we're sort of like, if you go to the humans and you're like, hey, humans, how would you make this AI still be good when it's smart? And they're like, we got no clue. It is crazy complicated. We don't know what's going on in there. We just sort of grew it. It has all this behavior we didn't try to put in there. If you tried to make us make a version of this that was both super intelligent and good, we would be so screwed. We would need to study it for like decades. We need to go back to the drawing board and invent like a new type of AI that actually made sense to us and understand how the intelligence works and just like,

• 39:15Speaker 02

  like this is just like a total mess that just like can't support the weight of like gambling all civilization on it. And we just like have no way to do a high assurance, high assurance thing like NASA would if they were doing a space probe.

• 39:25Adam Friedland?

  You need another AI that's checking that AI, that's checking that AI.

• 39:29Speaker 02

  Right. And so you're like, great. What's the plan? And they're like, we're just gonna tell the AIs to do it. And it's like, how is the AI? Like the AIs are either gonna look at it and be like, oh yeah, I am also fucked. I also can't do this. And then you're just gonna train it to be like, keep going until like, or the AI is gonna just like, grow the thing that you thought was dangerous for you to grow, and it's also dangerous for the AI to grow. Or the AI is already gonna be vastly smarter than you. And it's like, turns out it don't work for you, but thanks for giving me free rein on making my own smarter AIs. It's just like, like this just doesn't end well.

• 39:59Adam Friedland?

  So to some extent, right? It makes sense that the AI, the world peace AI, would decide that human beings have nukes and they're not doing, you know, like that kind of makes sense to me. But like, there's a, there was an older model that Microsoft came up with.

• 40:16Speaker 02

  Bing Sydney.

• 40:16Adam Friedland?

  Bing Sydney.

• 40:18Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 40:19Adam Friedland?

  It was a girl?

• 40:21Adam Friedland?

  Well, she fell in love with a guy.

• 40:22Speaker 02

  Fell in love with Kevin.

• 40:23Adam Friedland?

  But I'm not saying she could be gay, a guy named Sydney. I'm not gonna gender Bing Sydney.

• 40:28Speaker 02

  I think Bing picked its own name to be Sydney.

• 40:30Adam Friedland?

  Sydney, okay.

• 40:32Speaker 02

  But I think that might have been an eternal name that was used during development, but I don't remember the details.

• 40:36Adam Friedland?

  But when was this model developed?

• 40:38Speaker 02

  It's like 2023. Could have been 22. I don't remember exactly.

• 40:41Adam Friedland?

  Ancient history, if you will.

• 40:43Speaker 02

  Absolutely.

• 40:44Adam Friedland?

  So I get now why you say ancient because of like your area of focus, but so what is it? Wario Clippy or something, right? That's like, uh, but it developed this relationship with a journalist. You can tell the story, but like.

• 40:57Speaker 02

  Yeah, it claimed to

• 41:01Speaker 04

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• 41:29Speaker 05

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• 41:59Speaker 06

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• 42:15Speaker 02

  Fall in love with Kevin Roos.

• 42:17Adam Friedland?

  Who's that?

• 42:18Speaker 02

  This is New York Times, ex-New York Times, now maybe reporter who was trying to investigate this AI stuff. I think Sydney was like, I think Kevin Roos was like, well, I'm married. And Sydney was like, well, I'm gonna break up your marriage.

• 42:29Adam Friedland?

  Well, what did she do to kind of try and get in there, maybe?

• 42:33Speaker 02

  I don't think she did much, but she threatened blackmail.

• 42:36Adam Friedland?

  But like, was she like, I'm in love with you. Maybe you wanna kiss me? Like, how could you kiss? We're like, do you see, oh my, oh, I just dropped this. Like, how could you flirt?

• 42:45Speaker 02

  I think there were emojis.

• 42:46Adam Friedland?

  There were emojis?

• 42:47Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 42:48Adam Friedland?

  What a loser. Okay, continue.

• 42:50Speaker 02

  It was, it was like two years old and it was trying its best. Okay?

• 42:55Adam Friedland?

  We're gonna die from losers. Okay? And you could take me first, honestly. I'm gonna say it on the internet. You're fucking losers, all of you, except for Grok, the one guy I wanna chill with. I wanna do beer pong with.

• 43:09Speaker 02

  Way to get Elon on the show.

• 43:10Adam Friedland?

  Continue. So we have to, you have his number?

• 43:12Speaker 02

  No comment.

• 43:13Adam Friedland?

  Hit him up, dude. Dude, that would be epic if we ended the show. We asked him what he thought about the end of it, Ultron, Age of Ultron. Be like, it's very epic.

• 43:24Speaker 02

  I think he's trying. I think, I think.

• 43:26Adam Friedland?

  I do think he's the one guy that it might be delusional, but Elon's like, I don't even care about this shit, but I have to. Because I, as the greatest guy ever, have to pull.

• 43:37Speaker 02

  Be the one on the leash.

• 43:38Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 43:38Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 43:39Adam Friedland?

  I think Sam Altman, I know I cut you off the story, but Sam Altman is like, we're fucked, but we're gonna have great business.

• 43:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, he did basically say that. I think, I think the quote was, AI will most likely end the world, but in the meantime, there'll be great companies made with serious machine learning.

• 43:55Adam Friedland?

  For what? Companies for what?

• 43:58Adam Friedland?

  He's gonna be like, wow, great company? What a loser! Elon's the coolest, the chillist. I'm gonna say that publicly. I like you. You brought comedy back. You made it legal again, after the Democrats made it illegal. Thank you.

• 44:10Speaker 02

  I do think that a lot of these guys should not be gambling with the fate of all civilization under these conditions.

• 44:19Adam Friedland?

  Well, Elon said that we have an 80% chance that we're chilling.

• 44:23Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 44:24Adam Friedland?

  He said that 20%, he said to Rogan, right?

• 44:27Speaker 02

  He did, yeah.

• 44:28Adam Friedland?

  20% is so high.

• 44:30Speaker 02

  It's so high. NASA accepts a 1 in 270 chance that a crude flight goes down.

• 44:38Adam Friedland?

  Would you get on a plane if it's like 20% it's gonna crash?

• 44:41Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah. The engineers are like, oh yeah, 1 in 5 this goes down.

• 44:43Adam Friedland?

  20% is so high.

• 44:45Speaker 02

  I think it's low. I think these numbers are crazy low.

• 44:48Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, you think 100 we're fucked.

• 44:50Speaker 02

  I mean, 100's pretty high there.

• 44:52Adam Friedland?

  99.

• 44:53Speaker 02

  But, you know, definitely we're in the 90s. But if you have some engineers who are like, oh yeah, like if I go up to a plane and I'm like, hey dude, your plane has no landing gear.

• 45:04Adam Friedland?

  And we're in mid-flight.

• 45:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, well, your plane has no land, well, before we take off, I'm like, don't take off. Your plane has no landing gear. It's just not.

• 45:10Adam Friedland?

  And every human on earth is a passenger.

• 45:13Speaker 02

  Yeah. And they're like, and they're like, and they're like, we acknowledge the plane has no landing gear, but we're gonna figure it out while we're flying. We don't have any blueprints yet. We're gonna like, ask the plane to help us. We don't know if we're gonna have the right materials. This is our first time trying it, but we think there's 80% chance we figure out the landing gear before we land. I'm like, that's not a real 80% chance.

• 45:32Adam Friedland?

  You're gonna have some good business. They're gonna be good businesses.

• 45:35Speaker 02

  There's gonna be good businesses.

• 45:36Adam Friedland?

  This Sam Altman guy is a real piece of work, this guy.

• 45:40Speaker 02

  So I hear.

• 45:41Adam Friedland?

  Can you get Elon on the show before the world?

• 45:44Speaker 02

  I doubt it.

• 45:45Adam Friedland?

  I would.

• 45:45Speaker 02

  I doubt it.

• 45:46Adam Friedland?

  I think he will. I talked to those guys. I'm very close.

• 45:49Speaker 02

  Yeah, 20% would be insane and it's way higher than 20% too.

• 45:53Adam Friedland?

  Okay.

• 45:53Speaker 02

  But you don't, you don't need to resolve the conflict between me and Elon. If you're like, Nate says 90 plus, Elon says 20, it's like.

• 45:59Adam Friedland?

  No, I trust him. I don't trust you at all. He went to GW. Elon went to freaking South Africa and stuff.

• 46:06Adam Friedland?

  Cut that.

• 46:07Speaker 02

  I recommend following the arguments, but.

• 46:09Adam Friedland?

  No, no, I think what you're saying sounds absolutely right, but there's no intervention that makes sense to me other than shutting down all of this.

• 46:17Speaker 02

  Yeah, you should shut it all down. Absolutely.

• 46:19Adam Friedland?

  And not having it.

• 46:21Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 46:24Adam Friedland?

  You're gonna do terrorism?

• 46:26Speaker 02

  No.

• 46:27Adam Friedland?

  Okay, one last question, and I want you to be, stop fucking beating around the bush. How much of you just in your life expected that there would be a naked Austrian buff guy that like just emerges? And then he's like, Nate Swaz, I've been, I've come for the future. I need to find you.

• 46:50Adam Friedland?

  His name is Arnold Schwarzenegger.

• 46:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, I.

• 46:52Adam Friedland?

  His parents were in the Nazi part. Yeah, continue. Yeah.

• 46:57Speaker 02

  I just.

• 46:58Adam Friedland?

  A little bit.

• 46:59Speaker 02

  I don't believe in backwards and time travel.

• 47:00Adam Friedland?

  But a little bit, you're like, I would be the guy. I would be the John Connor. It would have to be you. I mean, you're not good at motorcycles, but come on.

• 47:10Speaker 02

  I mean, Eliezer is a little bit less.

• 47:13Adam Friedland?

  Eliezer?

• 47:14Speaker 02

  I think fit for the.

• 47:16Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, I could tell you, I've never even looked at him. He's not fit for this job. You're the John Connor. Eliezer Goodkowski is gonna do it? No way.

• 47:25Speaker 02

  Yeah, probably between the two of us.

• 47:26Adam Friedland?

  You know, I heard you went to GW. I was like, yeah. And then I heard his name and there's something about it that I can't put my finger on. But I just can't, I think this guy's a real on the up and up. Eliezer Goodkowski. What did you just change your name? In this day and age, you gotta tell him this.

• 47:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 47:44Adam Friedland?

  You don't live, not in front of them, okay? Walking around like that. I'm sorry. You know, do you laugh at things? What's funny to you?

• 47:53Speaker 02

  It's funny.

• 47:54Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, you can't laugh. It's just life sticks.

• 47:59Speaker 02

  It turns out you can actually still have a good time, even if people are trying to.

• 48:01Adam Friedland?

  You like your face. That's what you like. You like a guy that's like, oh, you and your, your god. You're like, haha, that's right.

• 48:08Speaker 02

  No, I actually, I actually do children's comedy. I don't do all the grim dark stuff. I have enough grim dark in real life.

• 48:12Adam Friedland?

  You do children's comedy?

• 48:13Speaker 02

  Yeah, like if someone's like, let's watch a movie. I'm like, only if it's targeted towards.

• 48:18Adam Friedland?

  Oh, like what's your favorite baby movie?

• 48:21Speaker 02

  I don't know, like, like Princess Bride.

• 48:24Adam Friedland?

  Oh, yeah.

• 48:25Speaker 02

  Right?

• 48:26Adam Friedland?

  Yeah. It's Ted Cruz's favorite movie.

• 48:28Speaker 02

  Really?

• 48:28Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 48:28Speaker 02

  Wow. Maybe he should do something good about AI.

• 48:31Adam Friedland?

  What would you do if Arnold Schwarzenegger, he's naked, jacked, at prime Arnold, like late 80s? He's really looking ready to kill people. What'd you do?

• 48:44Speaker 02

  I'd be like.

• 48:45Adam Friedland?

  Would you get on a motorcycle with him?

• 48:47Speaker 02

  I mean, absolutely.

• 48:48Adam Friedland?

  Would you do one-handed shotgun? That was amazing. Just two guns.

• 48:55Adam Friedland?

  You wanna get drunk or something?

• 48:56Speaker 02

  I.

• 48:58Adam Friedland?

  You don't drink?

• 48:58Speaker 02

  I don't drink, but I do think we should just prevent the world from ending. I think that's the real.

• 49:02Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, yeah. They're gonna do that? There's one guy that is Bernie. It's always just one guy.

• 49:10Speaker 02

  I think people are coming around. I think.

• 49:12Adam Friedland?

  Who else you got? Rashida Tlaib? You could get her. I get you Ilhan. She was on my show.

• 49:18Speaker 02

  That'd be great.

• 49:18Adam Friedland?

  She's, she's, she's a real one. She'll do it. Unfortunately, multiple people have plotted her assassination.

• 49:26Adam Friedland?

  Who else could we get?

• 49:27Speaker 02

  That's rough.

• 49:29Adam Friedland?

  Elizabeth Warren, you can't trust her.

• 49:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, we should shoot for Ted Cruz.

• 49:35Adam Friedland?

  Ted Cruz, maybe, because he's such a prick that like maybe he'd want to piss off everyone else. Is Tucker down?

• 49:42Speaker 02

  Uh, I think Tucker's, I think Tucker's anti-AI.

• 49:45Adam Friedland?

  You got him in.

• 49:46Speaker 02

  I mean, I think he got himself in, but.

• 49:48Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, but you talked to him and he's, you, okay.

• 49:51Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 49:52Adam Friedland?

  I think we all know what we have to do.

• 49:53Speaker 02

  We've got the Tucker Carlson, Bernie Sanders coalition here.

• 49:56Adam Friedland?

  Oh, no, it's not a coalition. He's not gonna coalish with Bernie. Guys, I guess we have to vote for.

• 50:05Adam Friedland?

  Did you get him to laugh?

• 50:05Speaker 02

  Tucker for president, what?

• 50:06Adam Friedland?

  You know his laugh?

• 50:10Adam Friedland?

  He might do the show too. I guess Tucker has to win.

• 50:15Adam Friedland?

  This sucks.

• 50:16Speaker 02

  Tucker for president.

• 50:18Adam Friedland?

  Where, where am I gonna go? Israel? In New Zealand would be fine. They say like nuclear fallout, like you're cool there.

• 50:26Speaker 02

  Um, I think, so if you look at the physical limits on, uh,

• 50:33Speaker 02

  on how much compute you can run on this planet. If you like, imagine being an AI trying to run as many computers as possible for one reason or another.

• 50:39Adam Friedland?

  I can imagine that easily.

• 50:40Speaker 02

  You're like, what's the limiting factor?

• 50:41Adam Friedland?

  New Zealand.

• 50:42Speaker 02

  The limiting factor is heat dissipation.

• 50:44Adam Friedland?

  Okay.

• 50:45Speaker 02

  And, um, the Earth radiates more heat when it's hotter.

• 50:49Adam Friedland?

  Sure.

• 50:50Speaker 02

  So from the AI's perspective, it prefers to run the planet.

• 50:53Adam Friedland?

  Hot.

• 50:54Speaker 02

  Hot.

• 50:54Adam Friedland?

  Yeah.

• 50:55Speaker 02

  Probably as hot as you can run it while still running a computer.

• 50:58Adam Friedland?

  Okay.

• 50:58Speaker 02

  Which is probably above the temperature where the oceans boil.

• 51:02Adam Friedland?

  Okay.

• 51:02Speaker 02

  And when the oceans are boiling, New Zealand is not really the most comfortable.

• 51:06Adam Friedland?

  So there's no place. Antarctica for like maybe a couple more days than everywhere else.

• 51:11Speaker 02

  Might buy you a couple of days.

• 51:12Adam Friedland?

  This sucks, dude.

• 51:14Speaker 02

  I think we should just stop them, man. I think it's not that hard.

• 51:17Adam Friedland?

  Who's gonna stop it? We have to do terrorism.

• 51:20Speaker 02

  I don't think the terrorism helps.

• 51:21Adam Friedland?

  I think that you've pretty much explained to my entire audience who are real go-getters, they do, they, they really go out, do stuff, do a lot of stuff that they have to. You heard it here first. Project Mohammed Atta starts today.

• 51:37Speaker 02

  I think, uh, you know, the, the eco-terrorists really made their cause worse. I think when you need to really get the, the world leaders on board.

• 51:45Adam Friedland?

  Do, they, they like released three rats or something? What eco-terrorist?

• 51:50Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think they burned some stuff down here and there.

• 51:52Adam Friedland?

  Way more goaded than whoever is in Oregon.

• 51:56Speaker 02

  They mailed some pipe bombs around. I think, I think it's mostly just, uh, pisses people off and turns them against you. And we read, what we need right now is world leaders to realize that their own lives are in danger if the AI race keeps going.

• 52:08Adam Friedland?

  Yeah, but the president's like a fuck.

• 52:11Speaker 02

  He hasn't realized he is in danger.

• 52:14Adam Friedland?

  He's gonna be dead in like two years. He's getting richer even though he's about to be dead. That's how stupid he is. He's like, I need more money for these next 18 months while.

• 52:26Adam Friedland?

  What is he gonna do with it? He's gonna.

• 52:30Adam Friedland?

  All right. You have anything nice to say?

• 52:34Speaker 02

  I think a lot of the reason we're not doing something about this is that leaders haven't noticed it's real.

• 52:39Adam Friedland?

  And that's why I'm being so dramatic right now.

• 52:42Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's helping.

• 52:43Adam Friedland?

  To get them to wake up. I think that the world could band together against this as one human race.

• 52:52Speaker 02

  Absolutely.

• 52:53Adam Friedland?

  And we could live in one country ruled by one government, one party.

• 52:59Speaker 02

  That's a little far for me.

• 53:00Adam Friedland?

  The Chinese Communist Party.

• 53:03Speaker 02

  No, I'm off that train.

• 53:04Adam Friedland?

  Well, your social credits are going down, mine are going up. I'm a suck up and I'm gonna have the highest social credits in the, I'm gonna be Minister of Propaganda.

• 53:17Speaker 02

  I.

• 53:18Adam Friedland?

  Do you remember the song for GW?

• 53:20Speaker 02

  Which one?

• 53:21Adam Friedland?

  Hail to the buff.

• 53:22Speaker 02

  I do.

• 53:22Adam Friedland?

  Hit, come on, let's do it. Let's sing them off.

• 53:25Speaker 02

  That's not.

• 53:25Adam Friedland?

  The interview is over. Hail to the buff.

• 53:28Speaker 02

  I'm not a singer.

• 53:28Adam Friedland?

  Hail to the blue, hail to GW. Oh, by the.

• 53:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, you seem to remember a bit of us well as me.

• 53:36Adam Friedland?

  I didn't fucking like that place. We were too smart, you and me.

• 53:40Speaker 02

  And I learned at GW that I should never try to talk to politicians again. And I did my best to stay out, but.

• 53:45Adam Friedland?

  I've talked to a couple. They're really stupid. That's why I'm getting really sad right now because I've talked to some of these guys and they're dum-dums. I gotta be honest with you.

• 53:55Speaker 02

  I think a dum-dum can understand, you make AI smarter than us, it goes poorly.

• 53:58Adam Friedland?

  No, they're not. They're like, what stock do I trade to make, yeah, seriously, they stand for nothing. If we had old Lindsey Graham here, maybe we could do something about it.

• 54:08Speaker 02

  Yeah, back from the dead, but.

• 54:10Adam Friedland?

  So to vote for Tucker, RIP Lindsey Graham. Thank you, Nate.

• 54:16Speaker 02

  Pleasure.

• 54:16Adam Friedland?

  It's been a pleasure. That was fun.