Prof G Markets: Will Boeing and Intel Recover? — ft. Aswath Damodaran

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Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:11Ed Elson?

  Hi Prof G fans, it's Ed dropping in to share an episode of Prof G Markets that we do not want you to miss. We are on our own separate feed now, so type in Prof G Markets wherever you get your podcasts and hit follow to stay up to date. This week on Prof G Markets, we spoke with one of our favorite guests, Professor Aswath Damodaran. We talked about tech earnings, what Wall Street thinks of Harris and Trump, and we spoke about some fallen heroes in the stock market. Here's a clip.

• 0:37Aswath Damodaran?

  I think the problem for Intel is they were at the top for so long that their story is we're the biggest, we're the best. And when that slipped, they wanted to go back to the top. I mean, if you think about what they've done over the last 10 years, it's not that they haven't tried to do the things that would make them successful. I think they've tried too hard. Tried too hard in what sense? They tried to out TSMC, TSMC with the Intel Foundry, huge investments in manufacturing chips, saying we too can be like TSMC. They've invested, I think after Nvidia, perhaps even more than Nvidia, they've thrown in billions of dollars into developing the next AI chip because they're convinced that they can out Nvidia Nvidia.

• 1:18Aswath Damodaran?

  And I think in the process, they've overreached. I call it me too-ism on steroids because that's basically what Intel has done for the last five years is me too, I can do that. And I can do it five times more expensively than you can. Now, I remember going into Intel six or seven years ago, I went to their offices and I was talking to their, you know, they asked me to come in and speak to their, as a general audience. And what I noticed about Intel as a company was the absence of energy. You don't get that sense of excitement and energy and it wasn't there anymore. And it's tough to be in the business that Intel is in without that driving the choices. I do think though, that it's been oversold. I think, especially when it drop below $20 per share,

• 2:00Aswath Damodaran?

  you are effectively assuming that Intel would shrink over time and its margins would go away. Intel has a couple of advantages still that can work in its favor. One is the Inflation Reduction Act, as you know, put as a priority, chips made in the US.

• 2:19Aswath Damodaran?

  TSMC has built a factory in the US, but Intel is supremely well positioned to take advantage of the subsidies that come out of that. So if Intel can find its feet on the foundry business, there's a way back. And I think that as long as they don't try too hard and accept the fact that they will not dominate AI, that that battle's lost. Nvidia will, but they have a niche portion of the AI business they can go after. I think there's a pathway back to middle age. Not great growth, but middle age for Intel. And at less than $20 per share, I thought it was, it was a pretty good bargain as an investment. I own Intel now, so I've got to be quite, quite, quite open about that. I did it after I wrote the piece and I looked at,

• 3:04Aswath Damodaran?

  you know, what would happen if they became a 3% growth company and the margins slipped by 3% or 4% and they were $28 per share with those assumptions built in. I can live with those assumptions. I think the odds are in fact in your favor in Intel. Boeing, though, is an entirely different story. I mean, I've never seen a company blow up its reputation as thoroughly and as completely as Boeing has done over the last 20 years. I mean, it's one of the great engineering companies in the world. I mean, a company that was, you know, people went to because it had superb, superb engineering and technology knowledge, trusted in many dimensions. The only reason Boeing is afloat is because it's in a duopoly.

• 3:48Aswath Damodaran?

  I mean, that's, that's a reality is this company has so thoroughly trashed its credibility in markets that in any other market, we'd be talking about wrapping all, winding up the story and selling the assets to others. I do think they're, they're thinking about selling their space division now, and that's the first phase in a company saying, we're in trouble. We're going to sell off our crown jewels because we have to survive. They're in complete survival mode, and I don't know an easy pathway back to credibility because once people get the perception that you cannot be trusted, that your products are not safe. It's for an aircraft manufacturer. Is diabolically dangerous.

• 4:33Aswath Damodaran?

  It's very difficult to find a pathway back. So Boeing, I would not buy at any price simply because I, you know, I think there are too many things that can go wrong here that can cause the company, if not to go bankrupt, at least to be taken into receivership by somebody that might maintain the assets and run it. But, you know, the company is in serious, serious trouble.

• 4:55Ed Elson?

  If you want to hear the rest of that episode, search Prof G Markets wherever you get your podcasts and hit follow. You'll get the full conversation along with a new interview every Thursday, and that's exclusively on Prof G Markets.