#1424 Anthony & Polina Pompliano | Is Bitcoin Ready To EXPLODE Higher?!

Polina Pompliano, Author of ‘Hidden Genius’ and Founder of The Profile, and Anthony Pompliano, Author of ‘How To Live An Extraordinary Life’ and CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss why bitcoin is going up, why the mainstream media reports don’t matter, Goldman Sachs S&P prediction for the next decade, Elon Musk, and prediction markets. ======================= Buy book: https://www.amazon.com/Live-Extraordinary-Life-Anthony-Pompliano/dp/0857199927/ ======================= Gemini is the safe and secure way to trade crypto. Gemini is offering eligible new users the opportunity to earn $100 in BTC when they trade $1000 in crypto within their first 30 days of signing up. Head over to https://www.gemini.com/partners/pomp and start trading crypto to earn $100 in BTC. ======================= Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/ ======================= View 10k+ open startup jobs: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's up guys? Today I've got an amazing episode for you with Polina Pompliano. In this conversation, we talk about why Bitcoin is going up and all the things that the mainstream media is telling you don't actually matter. Who the president is, what's going to happen in the economy? None of it is going to matter, and I'm going to explain to you why.

• 0:45Anthony Pompliano?

  On top of that, we talk about Goldman Sachs and how they've lost their minds. They're predicting a negative real rate of return for the stock market over the next 10 years. That's wrong, and I'll explain that as well. Then we get into Elon Musk, the greatest entrepreneur of our lifetime, how he is doing what he's doing, even though he's being heckled and constantly overseen by so many different regulatory organizations that are just full of bureaucrats that are getting in his way. And then last but not least, we talk about prediction markets, what's going to happen with the presidential election, and why the prediction markets may actually be a little bit more accurate than you think. This conversation is full of different topics. I really look forward to hearing your thoughts, what you agree with, what you don't agree with, and of course, how we can make this better. So please leave comments or reply on Twitter. Here's my latest conversation with Paulina Pompliano.

• 1:30Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 1:54Anthony Pompliano?

  Today's episode is brought to you by Gemini. Gemini is a fantastic platform. How do I know? Cause I've used it for years. These guys get it. They right now have a special offer where they are offering all eligible new users, the opportunity to earn a hundred dollars in Bitcoin. That's right, 100 big ones. They're going to get out in Bitcoin if you go and you trade a thousand dollars in crypto within the first 30 days of signing up. What is Gemini? Gemini builds crypto products that are simple, elegant and secure. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the billionaire Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss founded Gemini in 2014 with the security first mentality and ethos of asking for permission, not forgiveness.

• 2:37Anthony Pompliano?

  They've been pioneers for the crypto industry since day one. And unlike many exchanges, they are available in all 50 US states. Gemini has tools for new and advanced traders. They've got an advanced trading platform called Active Trader, which is where crypto traders go for advanced charting tools, access to over 300 crypto trading pairs and multiple order types to trade the way you want. Head over to gemini.com/partners/pomp and start trading with Gemini today to earn a hundred dollars in Bitcoin. That's right, Gemini will give you a hundred dollars in Bitcoin. If you head over to gemini.com/partners/pomp and you trade a thousand dollars in crypto within the first 30 days. All right, Palina, what's the first topic we got today?

• 3:22Speaker 02

  All right, we got Bitcoin flirting with $70,000 on Monday as a spurt of inflows into exchange traded funds for the largest digital asset, as well as optimism about the outlook for US regulators supported, sorry, US regulation supported sentiment. So the US spot Bitcoin ETFs lured almost 2.4 billion of net inflows in the six days through October 18th.

• 3:49Anthony Pompliano?

  It's not going up because of any of that.

• 3:50Speaker 02

  Is it the election?

• 3:52Anthony Pompliano?

  People are just grasping for straws. No, it's not going up because of the election. It's not going up because the ETF was. It's going up because it's time to go up. Sideways summer is now officially over and we go up from here. And so if you go back, you can use 2020 and 2021 as the perfect overlay. People forget that we already had a supply shock earlier this year. The supply shock is that halving until in May of 2020 is when that supply shock happened. Bitcoin was trading somewhere around eight, $9,000. We then went the whole summer sideways summer and nothing happened. Everyone's like, well, is it broken? You know, it's like meme where they're like with the stick. We're just poking it like, does it work? And then all of a sudden we got to the end of October and up only. And we went from $10,000 to $64,000 by March.

• 4:36Anthony Pompliano?

  And so in six months or less, we went up 600%. Fast forward to 2024, there's a whole bunch of chaos, FTX nonsense, bear markets, bull markets, interest rates, all of it is noise. What we are watching is we are now going to get the pricing in of that supply shock. When we had the halving, we're pretty much flat to today. Sideways summer happened, the sideways summer is over and we go up from here. And so people will try to attach Bitcoin to all these different narratives. Well, guess what? It doesn't matter. Doesn't matter who the president's going to be. Bitcoin's going up. Doesn't matter what the monetary policy is. Bitcoin's going up. Doesn't matter what happens with the ETFs. Bitcoin's going up. And so Bitcoin is going to go up from here.

• 5:19Anthony Pompliano?

  The question is not whether it's going to go up, it's how much is it going to go up? And the severity of that move is going to be greatly determined by a number of different factors. Obviously you need more buyers than sellers. You need people to not sell and kind of hold that Bitcoin. There is a public narrative that Trump will be better than Harris for Bitcoin. All those things, they do not impact, uh, impact direction of travel. They impact the severity of the move. And so my guess is that we are going to see over the next 18 months or so, a pretty substantial move in Bitcoin. My only word of caution is do not expect it to be nearly as big on a percentage basis as it has been in the past. And so if you're used to 500, 1,000% move.

• 6:02Anthony Pompliano?

  Maybe you should expect maybe 100 or 200% move, which still is great. But as an asset gets larger and volatility comes down, the asset naturally can't just keep compounding at these really high rates of return forever.

• 6:14Speaker 02

  But let me just challenge that for a little bit. I hear what you're saying. Yeah, I hear what you're saying about like the it'll impact the severity or the magnitude or whatever. But how can you say that, let's say it's been called the Trump trade, you know, people are expecting Trump to be much friendlier to Bitcoin in the crypto environment. If Harris is too, I think, I think people have said that she's looking to create a regulatory structure. But let's say that there was a political candidate who got into office and suddenly was like, absolutely not, we're not going to be friendly, we're not gonna, we're going to be more punitive than supportive. How is that not going to impact the price?

• 6:54Anthony Pompliano?

  That would be more bullish for Bitcoin, I think.

• 6:56Speaker 02

  Why?

• 6:56Anthony Pompliano?

  Because in countries where they have banned it, Pakistan, Nigeria, China, adoption goes up faster because the people understand that the government is full of shit. And so if the government says you can't have something, people are interested. Look at every industry that they've ever said you can't participate. The people revolt and they go and they adopt that industry. And so there's a huge argument that the war on drugs actually made the drug industry bigger. If you look at prohibition, yeah, sure, you pushed it into the into the shadows, but it actually probably made the alcohol industry bigger. And so if you think

• 7:37Anthony Pompliano?

  about kind of these industries have like a respawning of them. So look at nicotine as an example. Oh, we're going to slap all these labels. We're going to stop people from smoking cigarettes, all this stuff, things that a lot of people say, hey, that's a good thing. We're going to tax the hell out of cigarettes. How many kids are running around with nicotine pouches in their mouth? How many kids are running around with jewels and they're vaping? You didn't kill cigarettes. What you did is you just pushed it into other form factors. The people get what they want. And so if you had somebody come in and say, I'm going to shut down Bitcoin, guess what everyone would do? They'd rally around it and they'd go buy as much Bitcoin as they could before that happened. They go and they put it in cold storage and the price would skyrocket. So actually by them embracing it,

• 8:20Anthony Pompliano?

  it is making Bitcoin something that is, it's not that it's not going to go up. It's just not going to be a violent move upwards as people maybe think. Instead you get what we've seen. Bitcoin is up about 60% so far this year. And so that's a great performance for any asset. But 60% in a year where gold is up 30% year to date? It's only up two times more than gold. And so you look at that and you say, look, it's not that crazy outperformance of, you know, gold's flat and Bitcoin's up 500%. And so I do think that you've got to kind of contextualize this. And then the other thing that you got to look at is, both candidates are saying that they are going to be positive, but it doesn't matter.

• 9:00Anthony Pompliano?

  The President of the United States cannot really do anything to hurt Bitcoin. They, a lot of people say, oh, what do you mean? They could go and they could outlaw ownership. There's a lot of countries around the world that have outlawed ownership and Bitcoin did not care. Continue to produce block after block after block of transactions and Bitcoin is fine. So you can hurt the American citizens, but you can't hurt Bitcoin. And so that is really important because ultimately Bitcoin's value is derived from the fact that it is not controlled by anyone. It's never been hacked. It is a programmatic monetary policy that is globally accessible to anyone in the world. And that is a very nuanced component. Because in a weird way, the most powerful person in the world, the President of the United States,

• 9:45Anthony Pompliano?

  cannot wound and kill Bitcoin.

• 9:49Anthony Pompliano?

  Instead Bitcoin will survive the president, Bitcoin will survive the country, and Bitcoin will also continue to produce blocks of transactions regardless of what policy is in any one country. And the craziest part is even if every country came together and they said, "We're all going to collude and we're going to shut down Bitcoin," they couldn't do it. Bitcoin is the strongest computer network in the world. If you take AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure, you put all that computing power together, Bitcoin is still bigger than all of them combined. This thing got like, talk about the public health crisis that got let out of a lab. This thing got let out of a lab in terms of the free market of ideas,

• 10:31Anthony Pompliano?

  and it is winning in a meritocracy kind of world because it is the best idea. It is the best implementation. And so people want to attach these narratives because it makes us feel better. But the simplest explanation is the most likely. Bitcoin is going up because it's time to go up because we had a 50% supply shock. Demand has not changed. Actually, it has increased. Bitcoin's gone sideways. The coiling of the asset is ready to unleash, and here we go.

• 11:01Speaker 02

  And a small nuance, but you said that, you know, the returns may not be as lucrative now. But isn't the fact that the volatility has kind of dampened a good thing? Meaning that Bitcoin is now so mainstream that you shouldn't expect these big swings in either direction?

• 11:19Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, I do think that there's a very strong argument. You know, the Bitcoin community is good at a lot of things. One of the things that it is not good at is intellectual flexibility. And what I mean by that is it's very hard for Bitcoiners to hold in their head, "I want mass adoption, and I'm willing to give up returns for it." But that is what mass adoption means, is if you want everyone to hold the asset, then you are going to get a dispersion of ownership. You are going to get a dampening of returns because it is less risky. So buying Bitcoin in 2024 is child's play compared to buying it in 2016.

• 12:00Anthony Pompliano?

  But if it is less risky, the risk you take is the return you get. And so you should expect a lower return. Now, the nice thing is Bitcoin is still quote unquote riskier than buying the S and P 500. So you should expect it to outperform the S and P 500. And risk is not true risk. Risk is basically how many people in the market believe that this is safe, likely consensus. You know, you use your term of choice. And so my expectation is that Bitcoin will do better than gold stocks, real estate, anything else. But it's just not going to perform on the upside to the degree that it has done it in the past. By the way, that's what every cycle of history so far shows is that the returns in the first

• 12:44Anthony Pompliano?

  cycle were highest, the second cycle were second highest, the third cycle were the third highest is going to continue. But Bitcoin is up 60% to start the year. There's not very many assets that you could have bought at the start of the year on January 1st and outperform Bitcoin. And so I'm not bearish. I'm not saying that you shouldn't buy Bitcoin or hold Bitcoin. What I am saying though, is you should understand that happiness comes from a meeting of expectations in reality. And if your expectation is that Bitcoin's going to $500,000 in the bull market and that doesn't happen, you're going to be unhappy. You're going to feel disappointed. But instead, if you have lower expectations and reality matches or exceeds that, then you will be happy.

• 13:26Anthony Pompliano?

  And so set your expectations lower for any sort of price movement in a bull market. And that is the way to guarantee that you are happy over the next 18 months.

• 13:34Speaker 02

  Fantastic. Goldman Sachs says US stocks are unlikely to sustain their above average performance of the past decade as investors turn to other assets, including bonds for better returns. You say, so Goldman also says that the S and P 500 index is expected to post an annualized nominal total return of just 3% over the next 10 years. You say you disagree with this analysis.

• 14:00Anthony Pompliano?

  They should fire whoever wrote that report. That's how dumb that is. If somebody in our organization wrote that report, I would fire them. You know why I would do that?

• 14:09Speaker 02

  No.

• 14:09Anthony Pompliano?

  Because it is a mark of stupidity. Let me explain why. If you hold bonds, you're an idiot. That point blank period. TLT over the last.

• 14:18Speaker 02

  This is not financial advice.

• 14:19Anthony Pompliano?

  TLT over the last five years is down like 25%. How is holding bonds?

• 14:27Anthony Pompliano?

  You don't make money. The real return on bonds is negative. On top of that, you get the capital is being eroded away because of inflation.

• 14:40Speaker 02

  Right.

• 14:41Anthony Pompliano?

  So people sit there and they say like, oh, I'm holding bonds. I have a 3% return, blah, blah, whatever. No, you don't. You're losing money. You are losing money.

• 14:47Speaker 02

  Inflation isn't keeping up with.

• 14:49Anthony Pompliano?

  Yes. Bonds drive a negative real rate of return. And so it is dumb to hold bonds that do that. Again, you could argue with me all you want. That's dumb. How do I know? Cause I have money in the market. Does the person who's writing this article, are they buying bonds? Show me your portfolio. If you're telling people that bonds are going to do so well, go put a hundred percent of your portfolio in there. Cause if you're not willing to do that, then you shouldn't be able to write this, uh, report. On top of that, the idea that, uh, the S and P is going to return 3% over a year for the next 10 years. That's the nominal rate of return that they're talking about. So if you add in inflation, they are basically saying that the stock market is going to return

• 15:34Anthony Pompliano?

  a negative return for the next 10 years.

• 15:36Speaker 02

  But let me stop you right there. Hold on. They say they also see a roughly 72% chance that the benchmark index will trail bonds and a 33% likelihood they'll lag inflation through 2034.

• 15:50Anthony Pompliano?

  Are these people stupid? Do they understand how finance works? If you have a stock market that is priced in dollars and the dollar is being debased, you can't lag inflation because the inflation pushes the stock prices up. You're the 500 largest companies in the United States. You're the best companies ever created in the history of humans. And they're telling us that they're going to grow at less than 3% a year for the next decade.

• 16:17Speaker 02

  That's what they're saying.

• 16:19Anthony Pompliano?

  Which means it's a negative real return. These people have lost their minds and they're violating rule number one. Warren Buffett is very fond of saying never bet against America. Goldman Sachs is basically telling people you should bet against America.

• 16:31Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 16:32Anthony Pompliano?

  That's what they're saying. They're saying the S and P 500 is going to deliver a negative real rate of return. So if you as an investor read that and you want to make money, essentially you should bet against America.

• 16:41Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 16:41Anthony Pompliano?

  You should sell and not lose money because a negative real rate of return means you're going to lose money holding the S and P over the next decade, according to this report. That is dumb.

• 16:49Speaker 02

  Yet the S and P 500 is on track to outperform the rest of the world in eight of the last 10 years.

• 16:56Anthony Pompliano?

  The S and P 500 is destroying historical returns and has been for a long time. Why? Because inflation is higher than it historically has been. Earnings are better than it has historically been. These companies are more capital efficient than they've ever been. Think about how efficient some of these companies are. We've never had trillion dollar companies before. They're still compounding at incredibly high rates of return. One of the most interesting things about some of these companies is that as they get bigger, they grow faster rather than as they get bigger, they grow slower. And so this idea that somehow the S and P 500, which right now is returning 11% a year is the latest data.

• 17:38Anthony Pompliano?

  So on average returning 11% a year, that somehow we now are going to drop to a negative real rate of return for the next decade?

• 17:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, but, but it used to be 13% in the last decade.

• 17:49Anthony Pompliano?

  No, no, no, no, no.

• 17:50Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 17:50Anthony Pompliano?

  That's part of adding to the 11%. It used to be, if you go all the way back to 1920, the average rate of return for the S and P is like 8%. So now it's 11 if you go and look over the last, I think it lasts like two decades or so. So it's actually increased. And some of those, depending on which time laps you take, right? I don't know what it is, maybe the last seven or 10 years, maybe it's been 13%. And so if you then zoom out over 20 or 30 years, it's 11%. And so you can manipulate this data to say whatever you want. The one thing that I'm sure of again is whoever wrote the report, are you short the S and P 500? Are you sure? Show us your portfolio, or are you just screeching on the internet? Because there's a hell of a lot more people who are betting that the S and P 500 is going to go up

• 18:35Anthony Pompliano?

  compared to the people who think it's not. And so it goes back to they put out these research reports. Show me that you believe what you're saying. Show me your portfolio. Because if you're claiming that the S and P 500 is going to have a negative real rate of return, I want to go buy a gun because that means America is going to be in a really bad spot. Right? I want to actually start thinking about a hell of a lot of things other than my investment portfolio. Because what would happen if all of a sudden the S and P returned a negative real rate of return? What about all the pension funds that owe money to people? What about all the people who are depending on the stock market to be able to live their life moving forward? All that goes away if you have a negative real rate of return. And so it goes back to the fact that this is insane.

• 19:19Anthony Pompliano?

  It is just showcasing either one, they're looking for attention, they got it, I'm paying attention, I'm talking about you. Or two is they don't understand how the debasement of the currency and the stock market is related to each other.

• 19:31Speaker 02

  How is it possible that the analysts at Goldman Sachs don't understand the debasement of currency?

• 19:35Anthony Pompliano?

  Have you talked to some of these people before?

• 19:37Speaker 02

  All right.

• 19:38Anthony Pompliano?

  Again, there are some people, forget which company, there are some people who work in finance that are very smart. But there's a hell of a lot of people that are really dumb. And the best way to show it is if you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Right? Warren Buffett has a great quote where he says, uh, Wall Street is the only place where millionaires ride in their Bentleys to go take advice from people who don't have a million dollars that ride the subway. Right? That's Warren Buffett saying that. The whole point is that this is just a propaganda factory that they are putting these things out into the world.

• 20:10Speaker 02

  Oh, God, things got spicy.

• 20:13Anthony Pompliano?

  But if you're so smart, why aren't you rich? And again, it goes back to there's a difference between the people in the market and the people commenting on the market. We need both. It's important to have both. There are times where the people in the market are wrong and the analysts are right. And the people who are producing the research, they're right. And when that happens, I promise you that the researchers, they take their victory lap. They say, I told you X was going to happen. I told you Y was going to happen. Look at how bad the market was off sides here. Look at what happened in the housing crisis. I'm the one who wrote the research report, blah, blah, blah, whatever. Right?

• 20:48Anthony Pompliano?

  But when the opposite happens, the market participants should also, they should call the foul. I'm throwing the yellow flag. I'm saying, listen, you guys, this is a penalty. You can't write a report like this and just get off scotch free and no one critique it.

• 21:00Speaker 02

  Scott free.

• 21:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Scotch free, scotch free, whatever. Probably a guy named Scott wrote the report.

• 21:05Speaker 02

  Scotch free, get you a scotch tape. Okay.

• 21:08Anthony Pompliano?

  I'm just saying that we should call it out. We should say it's stupid. And by the way, if the analyst wants to make a bet, I would gladly bet over the next decade that the S and P does more than a 3% nominal return.

• 21:21Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:22Anthony Pompliano?

  I can almost guarantee you that they won't take me on the bet.

• 21:26Speaker 02

  I will make a note and we'll return in a decade and rediscuss.

• 21:30Anthony Pompliano?

  That's fine.

• 21:30Speaker 02

  Okay, let's talk about Elon Musk. Elon Musk has been busy.

• 21:35Anthony Pompliano?

  Skinning the game.

• 21:36Speaker 02

  Busy. And in one week, he's caught rockets with some metal chopsticks. He has launched humanoid thing, robot things. And he's putting robo taxis on the roads, kind of. So, okay, let's start with the Starship rocket. Fun fact, for those of you, we watched it live with our two-year-old in the room. And Anthony said a bad word when Elon caught the rocket.

• 22:04Anthony Pompliano?

  I said holy S H I T.

• 22:06Speaker 02

  No, you said what the?

• 22:07Anthony Pompliano?

  Oh, I said, yeah, I said both of them, probably. It was a, it was a holy shit moment. It was a whole fuck moment.

• 22:15Speaker 02

  So I looked at him and I was like, oh. And then, of course, she just ran around the apartment yelling it all morning.

• 22:22Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, at least we know she listens to me.

• 22:24Speaker 02

  She does. So, okay, so let's talk about that. It was, this rocket was caught in a giant mechanical, like chopstick situation as part of its fifth test flight. What I thought was interesting about this is that Elon Musk himself did not think that they would catch it. He thought it would take a few tries, but they caught it on the first try. What do you think?

• 22:47Anthony Pompliano?

  Because he set the expectation to meet reality. The odds that the first time in human history, we're going to launch the largest rocket ever created by humans. And when it comes down, we're going to be able to catch it in a thing that no one's ever done before. is very low. And so if you go in, you say, you know what, we're 100% likelihood. We're going to be able to do this. You're probably going to be disappointed. But instead of you say, I actually don't think it's going to work, but we're going to use it as a way to learn and then we're going to do this again. Then if it works, you're, oh my God, that was amazing. And so it's just being pragmatic. The other thing that I think is really important about this is we need things like this to happen

• 23:30Anthony Pompliano?

  in our country so that young men and women are empowered to dream what is possible.

• 23:38Anthony Pompliano?

  There are so few things that happen on a day to day basis where somebody looks at and they objectively say, that was cool. That was impressive. I saw for the first time in a long time, a lot of people on Twitter say something to the effect of, I disagree with Elon Musk's politics. He's a bad guy, but that was cool. I respect that he figured that out. Right? Kind of the like, let me caveat all this stuff and then give this guy kudos because you can't deny results. Results are the best resume. And Elon Musk shows up and he's got a long list of results. And most of the people critiquing him online, all they got is hot air. And so

• 24:22Anthony Pompliano?

  watching something like that, how many people, I mean, I did it. I turned it on. I got our kid and I said, sit here, watch this thing. Whether she remembers or not, doesn't matter.

• 24:32Speaker 02

  Well, to the point where she's now so excited about rockets and space, she is having a a space themed birthday party.

• 24:39Anthony Pompliano?

  Because you end up being inspired by the things that you are exposed to.

• 24:44Speaker 02

  Right.

• 24:45Anthony Pompliano?

  And so it doesn't matter that you can't explain to a kid how it works. It doesn't matter that a kid doesn't even understand 100% of what's happening. All they realize is that humans can do anything. And so I liked, my brother tweeted out a picture of the original Wright Brothers flight and then of SpaceX catching the rocket. 100 year difference.

• 25:11Anthony Pompliano?

  In 100 years, we went from can we fly to we can fly without people and catch ourselves in rockets in the air.

• 25:20Speaker 02

  The iteration.

• 25:21Anthony Pompliano?

  Imagine what happens in the next 100 years.

• 25:24Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 25:24Anthony Pompliano?

  And so it goes back to this idea that regardless of what you think of Elon Musk, I don't care because objectively, he is the best entrepreneur of our lifetime. He's solving real problems and we are now figuring out that SpaceX can do things that governments can. And that's the power of capitalism. That's the power of the private market and anyone who is attacking him is attacking him for things that are not on the playing field. It's kind of like watching football.

• 25:50Speaker 02

  We'll get to that.

• 25:51Anthony Pompliano?

  Right? You watch a football game. You can critique someone for what they do on the field or you can critique them for what they do and say off the field. If you're objectively looking at who's the best player, none of the things off the field count. It's just, are you the best in between the lines? And in the game of business, Elon Musk, he's winning.

• 26:08Speaker 02

  It reminds me of the kid in school that like was always a little rambunctious or like would talk back to the teacher, things like that.

• 26:15Anthony Pompliano?

  Probably the smartest kid in the class.

• 26:17Speaker 02

  And then you would want to knock him for that, but then he would like, you know, get an A on the test or like do things that were like, man, they're smart, but you want to not like them for certain things. I think Elon was a little bit like that.

• 26:29Anthony Pompliano?

  When I was in school, I used to talk in class a lot, which that's, you know,

• 26:32Speaker 02

  shocker.

• 26:33Anthony Pompliano?

  Uh, that's not very encouraged and the teachers would always be like, uh, stop talking. What did I just say? I had a hundred percent accuracy. I could repeat back to them exactly what they just said.

• 26:43Speaker 02

  I know, this is, but.

• 26:44Anthony Pompliano?

  And they would get so frustrated and I would basically, I didn't know how to articulate it at the time, but I was bored. I would just sit there and just be like, okay, like I don't need, I already read the book thing. Like, I don't need you to then regurgitate to me what's in the book. Like, do you even know what you're talking about? Right? And so I do think that, um, looking at people with idiosyncrasies, right? Uh, and you know, all that kind of stuff goes back to Elon said it on SNL when he hosted it. He said, I'm trying to, uh, go to Mars. Did you think I'd be normal?

• 27:15Speaker 02

  Right, right, right.

• 27:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Kanye West, you know, show me a genius that's not crazy. And I think that those things, there's a very strong hint of truth in them and Elon just, you know, kind of, um, is the perfect embodiment of that idea.

• 27:29Speaker 02

  Hot take, I like Elon.

• 27:31Anthony Pompliano?

  That shouldn't be a hot take.

• 27:33Speaker 02

  So the event also highlighted Optimus Tesla's humanoid robot. It's capable of performing various tasks like navigating complex environments and assisting with manual labor. Here they have, you know, a photo of a humanoid robot waiter, it looks like handing people drinks. It can do assembly line work, caregiving, and even exploration in hazardous areas, demonstrating a broad potential impact across industries. I think this could be huge. I mean, obviously.

• 28:06Anthony Pompliano?

  It is going to completely revolutionize the world. If you think what Uber did, Uber essentially brought a private driver to every single person, right?

• 28:15Speaker 02

  Now, private butler.

• 28:17Anthony Pompliano?

  All you do is you press a button and a car shows up. That used to be reserved at one point for kings and then eventually for rich people. And now anyone with a smartphone can press that button and the car shows up. What these humanoid robots are gonna do? What do kings have?

• 28:35Speaker 02

  Butlers.

• 28:36Anthony Pompliano?

  They have staff.

• 28:37Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 28:38Anthony Pompliano?

  What do rich people have?

• 28:39Speaker 02

  Butlers.

• 28:40Anthony Pompliano?

  They have staff. What is the everyday person, regardless of wealth status, gonna have? They're gonna have a staff. Now that staff, depending on who you are and what you do on a day basis, may do different tasks. But how many people in America would love for someone to cook, clean, fold laundry, mow the lawn, do all that stuff?

• 29:00Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 29:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Everyone would like somebody to do it. But everyone then jumps to, well, how much does it cost? And a lot of people in America can't afford it. But when you automate the work and you can drop the price down lower and lower and lower and lower, eventually it will become cheaper to actually have somebody else do it than for you to try to do it yourself.

• 29:24Speaker 02

  Could you imagine having a private humanoid chef? Oh, amazing.

• 29:29Anthony Pompliano?

  That's what 100% coming. But then it gets into things like this. This is where it becomes really fascinating. Will the setup, the structure, the architecture of homes change? Because you need to put the robot somewhere. But you may not need a kitchen in the same way that you need it today. And so there's these ramifications across industries when a piece of technology like this comes out. On top of that, are you going to bring your robot to the grocery store? If you go to your kid's soccer game, does the robot come with you?

• 30:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Does the robot have to wear a seatbelt?

• 30:08Anthony Pompliano?

  Does the robot have to pay taxes? Because Bill Gates thinks that you should, that the robot should have to pay taxes.

• 30:13Speaker 02

  Oh, my God.

• 30:15Anthony Pompliano?

  I disagree, but those are the questions that are coming is if this becomes prevalent.

• 30:21Speaker 02

  Right.

• 30:22Anthony Pompliano?

  Is the robot treated like a human? Or is the robot treated like a machine?

• 30:26Speaker 02

  I do think it's interesting that Musk, I'm sure there's strategy and like it's very methodical, but that he does want them to look human and it's not just like a box, right? Because easily this humanoid robot doesn't have to look like a human with arms and legs. It could just be like a box or some sort of vertical thing. I was talking to a VC once and he told me that he was talking to me about the Roomba in their house, you know, the little self-cleaning robot is just a circle that moves around the floor. But he was like, my kids think of the Roomba almost as a pet because there's something about when something moves, humans tend to anthropomorphize it. I think that's how you.

• 31:09Anthony Pompliano?

  They put it, they give it a name.

• 31:10Speaker 02

  They give it a name. They, they, they think about it as something with feelings just because it moves. So I wonder like if, and that's just the Roomba, this is a robot that looks like a human. I bet you you're going to be nice to it. You're going to treat it almost like a human living thing.

• 31:27Anthony Pompliano?

  I made an investment recently that I'm not ready to talk about yet, but it is in the robotic space and all I can say is we're coming. I'm super excited about this. I think that it is when people see the demo of what these people have built, they are going to be blown away. And the only thing that I'm going to say is that have you ever seen a robot unplug itself from the wall and go do what it's supposed to do and come back and plug itself back in?

• 31:55Speaker 02

  Oh, that scares me, but yeah.

• 31:56Anthony Pompliano?

  These things are going to come alive. They are going to be here and they are going to do tasks for us. And so that is this huge wave of what's coming. People will fight it. People will say, I don't want it. People will say, that sounds scary. But you're gonna put it in your house and it's gonna do a lot of work for you and you're gonna be happy.

• 32:16Speaker 02

  One of the only times Anthony has gotten misty eyed is when I, we watched a movie where a robot got hurt.

• 32:22Anthony Pompliano?

  Chappy, I already know you're gonna say Chappy.

• 32:24Speaker 02

  A robot got hurt. He couldn't handle it. You couldn't.

• 32:27Anthony Pompliano?

  What was the name of the movie? Was it called Chappy?

• 32:29Speaker 02

  You watch, yes, you watch war movies and you were upset about the robot getting hurt.

• 32:34Anthony Pompliano?

  Cause it was a human.

• 32:36Speaker 02

  Human on robot violence.

• 32:38Anthony Pompliano?

  Uh, cut off his arm, if I remember correctly.

• 32:41Speaker 02

  Yeah, he did not like that.

• 32:42Anthony Pompliano?

  That's messed up, man.

• 32:43Speaker 02

  So we had to stop. We didn't finish the movie.

• 32:45Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, so I can't watch this. This is violence like this. Robot should just spawn another arm and just smack this human to another planet.

• 32:54Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think it was called Chappy. So robo taxi.

• 32:59Speaker 02

  It's a two seater vehicle designed for individual or small group transport. No, is this the same?

• 33:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Robo van and cyber cab. There's two different versions.

• 33:09Speaker 02

  What is the one where like, there's a, there's a camera in your Tesla and you can make money while you're not in it?

• 33:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Uh, well, there's the Teslas that exist today, which are the consumer cars.

• 33:19Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 33:19Anthony Pompliano?

  Then there's cyber cab, which is, uh, you can own it and like rent it out, but basically just think of it like cabs that are full self-driving that just are like patrolling around a city and you basically, you know, call, comes to pick you up. And then there's the robo van, which is, uh, like a 20 seater and can take you different, um, you know, different places.

• 33:41Speaker 02

  Interesting. Cause I remember I was always asking you like, why do the Teslas have this camera? And I think Elon's vision for the future is that people can generate some extra income by, um, letting it be a robo taxi for the day and then collecting their income.

• 33:56Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, I mean, well, the camera has a bunch of different purposes. Uh, one of them in the future could be, hey, you can actually see what people are doing in your car. But also, uh, one of the things that it does is, um, I believe that the camera evaluates whether your hands are on, uh, the steering wheel or not. So when you turn on full self-driving, if you take your hands off the wheel in some of the cars and some of the versions, uh, the wheel will actually like give you a warning. And if you don't kind of, uh, you know, uh, jiggle the wheel a little bit to make sure that, uh, it knows that you're back with your hands on the wheel, it will actually shut off the full self-driving. Um, that's like a safety precaution.

• 34:30Speaker 02

  Okay, alright, so I have one more thing on the Elon topic. California officials cited Elon's antics in rejecting SpaceX's plan to launch more rockets off the central California coast. So the California Coastal Commission on Thursday rejected the Air Force's plan to give SpaceX permission to launch up to 50 rockets a year from Vanderburg Air Force Base in Santa Barbara County, and listen to the reason. Elon Musk is hopping about the country, spewing and tweeting political falsehoods and attacking FEMA while claiming his desire to help the hurricane victims with free Starlink access to the internet.

• 35:13Speaker 02

  And that's why they rejected it.

• 35:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Fire them all. Whoever can, whether it's the president on down, whoever's responsible, fire every single one of them. And when you fire them, put their faces on the front page of every national newspaper and say, "We will not stand for abuses of power, unconstitutional behavior, or political lawfare."

• 35:34Speaker 02

  If we judged politicians on every lie they told, I think they'd all be rejected.

• 35:39Anthony Pompliano?

  I bet these people are on Facebook saying a bunch of nonsense themselves, right? And so...

• 35:46Speaker 02

  It's gotta be Facebook.

• 35:47Anthony Pompliano?

  That is, of course it's Facebook. Of course it's Facebook. That's what, that's how you stop this stuff in this country, is you fire them and you put their pictures on the front page of every national newspaper and you say, "These are the faces of people who are violating the Constitution, who are using political lawfare, and who are actively working against the best interest of our country." If you want behavior to stop, call it out and punish it. But instead, they live in California, and there's a bunch of people in California who are cheering them on. And so guess what? When they go on the weekend to their kid's soccer game, or to a birthday party, or out

• 36:29Anthony Pompliano?

  on Friday night, I bet that there are people saying to them, "Great job. Way to get 'em." That is the difference. There's a fracturing in this country of two different types of people. There's a fracturing on one side of people who say, I believe X, but I am willing to defend free speech enough to defend your right to say things I disagree with.

• 36:52Speaker 02

  In the pursuit of innovation and bringing innovation to our area.

• 36:57Anthony Pompliano?

  No, just period, not even innovation, just period. I believe X and I think you're wrong, but I'm still willing to defend your right to say the thing I think is wrong. That's one group in this country. There's another group in this country, which will say, I believe Y. And if you say anything else, you're a threat to democracy, you're spreading misinformation, and we should put you in jail. That's the difference between the country. It's a very extreme fracturing. I've never seen this before. But the thing that gives me solace in the whole situation is that the people who are willing to defend free speech, they have history and they have accuracy on their side. And so guess what? Elon Musk is gonna still be launching rockets after these people are gone. They may be able to give him a hard time right now, but he's still gonna be launching rockets 20 years from now.

• 37:41Anthony Pompliano?

  And so when you see what is happening, the only way it self-corrects is if the people stand up and they say, you are wrong. You should not do this. It's unconstitutional to deny someone's ability to operate their business based on political beliefs.

• 38:02Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 38:03Anthony Pompliano?

  Why don't we instead start saying things like, you can't drive on the highway if you're a Democrat? That's about the same thing that they're saying. And so obviously, driving on the highway, whether you're Republican or Democrat, and not allowing people to do that, use a public good, airspace is a public good.

• 38:25Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 38:25Anthony Pompliano?

  Then we would all yell and scream and say, that's unconstitutional.

• 38:32Anthony Pompliano?

  People forget, just real quick, how much the government overreached over the last five years?

• 38:41Anthony Pompliano?

  Do you remember the guy in New Jersey? Who had a gym? And the government kept telling him to shut down his gym and he said, no. And they said, we're gonna find you. I think it was like $10,000 a day and he said, do it. And he kept his gym open? If I remember correctly, he recently won in court and it was deemed that them shutting him down was unconstitutional.

• 38:59Speaker 02

  There was something like that, yeah.

• 39:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Right? And so all those people who were cheering the government on? To do all that nonsense? They were wrong.

• 39:09Speaker 02

  He was cleared of more than 80 charges.

• 39:12Anthony Pompliano?

  They charged a man with 80 different things. And you know what? That man? His face should be on the front page of every national newspaper and they should put him up there.

• 39:23Speaker 02

  Instead, it's in like local news.

• 39:24Anthony Pompliano?

  Who believes in the American constitution? And was willing to stand up? For those rights? Regardless of the personal pain he went through.

• 39:34Speaker 02

  One of the charges is disturbing the peace. I didn't even know that could be a charge.

• 39:41Speaker 02

  You get charged with that every day.

• 39:43Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, I was gonna say, uh.

• 39:45Speaker 02

  What?

• 39:46Anthony Pompliano?

  Never mind.

• 39:47Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 39:48Anthony Pompliano?

  So.

• 39:49Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 39:49Anthony Pompliano?

  If you go back and you look at it, people all wanna say like, oh, the government has what's in your best interest. No, they don't. They charged this man with 80 different things and it came out that none of them, they went 0 for 80. All 80 of them, they were wrong on. They violated his constitutional right as a business owner in America to operate his business. And he ended up being on the right side of it all.

• 40:11Speaker 02

  Ian Smith, somebody should buy Ian Smith a shot.

• 40:14Anthony Pompliano?

  How many other things are happening that we don't know about? I saw a graphic recently? That had all the investigations that all of Elon Musk's companies are under. It's like alphabet soup. All these different organizations are all investigating. By the way, if he does something wrong, then they should investigate.

• 40:34Speaker 02

  Actually, this is what I was gonna say earlier is I think it's it's it's almost like mind boggling to think the problems that Elon Musk has set out to solve are so just, you know, difficult. It's like an engineering feat each and every one. It's so hard. Rocket science. But he's been doing that and figuring that out with the backdrop of like constant regulatory nightmares.

• 41:04Anthony Pompliano?

  Did you see the SEALs?

• 41:06Speaker 02

  No.

• 41:06Anthony Pompliano?

  He came out, they, the government, this is not a joke. The government forced SpaceX to kidnap a SEAL and put headphones on it to test how SEALs actually react to all these noises and all this stuff.

• 41:23Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 41:25Anthony Pompliano?

  They also, at one point, he told a story that when they launched the rocket and they were gonna land it in the water, asked, well, what if it hits a shark? And he said, uh, the odds it hits a shark are like really low. And they're like, but like, what if it does? And so he was like, uh, okay, we'll go figure that out. They came back and then the next question was like, what happens if we hit a whale? And he was like, are you guys serious right now? But that's the stuff that happens. And so what it goes back to is goes, America has a bureaucrat problem. Right? Guess what? Bureaucrats don't have anything to do, so they sit around pontificating about bullshit. And then what they do is they take all of that pontification and all that bullshit. And then they bring it to people who are really doing things.

• 42:10Anthony Pompliano?

  And they say, well, what if, what if, what if, what if, what if? And entrepreneurs, you know what they usually say? I'm gonna figure out the what ifs of the big stuff and then I'll figure everything else out. And you know what?

• 42:21Speaker 02

  It's just surprising that he's been able to do all of that, given that all the roadblocks on the regulatory.

• 42:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Imagine someone telling you, I can launch a rocket to space and then I'm gonna bring the rocket back down, I'm gonna hit a shark in the water.

• 42:34Anthony Pompliano?

  You would be like, I'll bet my life you can't do that. Right? So it's just stupidity. And so it goes back to, there's a fracturing of the country. There's the doers and then there's the talkers. And if you look at it, unfortunately, we are now seeing the doers say, I have to get more involved in certain aspects of society that I didn't want to get involved in. I don't believe that Elon Musk enjoys going and talking about politics, talking about these stories. I bet that Elon would like to just build his companies. But it's not just a Republican thing, right? Now, what we're starting to see is that actually there's Democrats coming out saying the same stuff.

• 43:19Anthony Pompliano?

  I've seen more Democrats come out and say some version of, I'm trying to do something in the business world and the government is stopping me. How many times has the FTC blocked acquisitions in the tech industry over the last five years? It keeps reinforcing this idea that if we want a country that is going to accelerate and have GDP grow and get results, we have to empower the people who are creating value. And so instead, we live in a country where people want to lionize success.

• 44:03Anthony Pompliano?

  Here's the thing that I think everybody should write moving forward. Every time you mention Elon Musk's name, you have to put next to it, Elon Musk, the man who paid the most amount of taxes in a single year in history, did blah, blah, blah, whatever. How much would that change the way people thought about Elon Musk? He paid $11 billion in taxes in a single year. It's the most money anyone had ever paid in taxes in a single year.

• 44:34Anthony Pompliano?

  But that's not the narrative. The narrative is, look at this leech. He's leeching off the US government.

• 44:41Anthony Pompliano?

  It's crazy.

• 44:42Speaker 02

  I know. All right. Well, on a more positive note, um, America has a new millionaire class and it's made up of blue collar workers.

• 44:52Anthony Pompliano?

  This isn't new.

• 44:53Speaker 02

  It's not new. Okay. But wait, wait, wait. This is good. This is a good thing that, um, it's interesting. Private equity firms across the country have been scooping up home services like HVAC and plumbing and electrical companies. And the growth of these home services, uh, marks a major shift from away from family operators because it used to be like a mom and pop shop. And, and the PE firms are offering these people seven figures or eight figure paydays. And suddenly you're running your like dad's HVAC business and now you're a millionaire. What do you think?

• 45:29Anthony Pompliano?

  You were already a millionaire before.

• 45:31Speaker 02

  Inflation.

• 45:32Anthony Pompliano?

  No, no, you're, the business is worth what it's worth.

• 45:34Speaker 02

  Right, right.

• 45:35Anthony Pompliano?

  You, it was illiquid, but you were still already a millionaire. So this idea of like, oh, the private equity firm made you a millionaire. No, that's not what happened.

• 45:43Speaker 02

  They're just giving you cash.

• 45:44Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, you could convert it to cash, but like you were already a millionaire. That's first of all. Second of all, for decades, people have been, oh, I want to go work at this high flying finance job. I want to work at this high flying tech job. Most people in a local community, the richest person runs a small business. They operate something that the community needs. There's restaurateurs, there's construction, there is, you know, uh, various things around HVAC, electricians, all, all these different kind of trades, uh, small businesses, all that kind of stuff. Like that is the backbone of a local economy. And so you need to get paid. And if you're not good at your job, you go out of business.

• 46:26Anthony Pompliano?

  If you are good at your job, then you make money. And so guess what? It's pretty hard to run a small business for 30 years and not be rich. Because you had to build a good enough business to last for 30 years. And then you had 30 years to compound that money. And so I just think that it's always funny, like people are like, whoa, look at these people. It's like, who did you think were the rich people?

• 46:48Speaker 02

  The Wall Street Journal just got caught.

• 46:50Anthony Pompliano?

  No, it's not. I actually, you know, I'll go after the, uh, the researchers publishing nonsense about, uh, you know, the, the stock market returns, but I don't think that the mainstream media gets this wrong necessarily. I do.

• 47:02Speaker 02

  They're just highlighting a trend.

• 47:03Anthony Pompliano?

  I do think that what you get is probably, uh, you get a journalist who wrote the article. And the article, actually, I read the article. It was very good, right? It talks about this idea that the private equity firms, really a private equity trend. They're now rolling up a bunch of these businesses. And then there's somebody else who's testing a bunch of headlines and they make it the new millionaire. You know, whatever, but like, a lot of times what you have to do is you have to separate out the journalist who wrote the article from the headline that is used. Because most times the journalist has no say in that headline.

• 47:34Speaker 02

  He tells the journalist.

• 47:35Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, I'm just clarifying for people because, but here's the thing, the reason why I know that, because I was surprised by that. When I first started learning how these mainstream media organizations work, I thought that it's like, you know, it's like a school paper. You write the paper and then you come up with your own title and you send it to the teacher.

• 47:51Speaker 02

  I mean, you do, but oftentimes it gets changed depending on.

• 47:54Anthony Pompliano?

  So now, when I read an article, I judge the reporter on the words in the article, not by the title. And so I think that a lot of people would benefit from doing that. And this, in this particular case, I thought the article is very good. I thought it accurately described the trend, had a lot of data in it and stuff like that. But I don't think the trend is necessarily new. It's just that, uh, private equity is now being more aggressive in doing a lot of this. And it's the kind of financialization that the global approach people are taking. There's a lot more capital going into private equity, venture capital and alternatives. And so that's exasperating this. And if you have more capital flowing in, the prices of these businesses rise up. And so people can make more money by starting these companies. And there's a whole bunch of stuff that is all working together, uh, to really drive the value of these companies up.

• 48:37Speaker 02

  And of course, it's like free PR for these PE companies that are normally heavily criticized by what they do to some of these companies, like load them with debt, et cetera. But they're using this as a moment to say, one of, one of the PE guys said, you don't need to go to Silicon Valley to have a successful career and entrepreneurial opportunities. You can just have it right at home.

• 48:59Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, I would say that too, if I was looking to buy small businesses in local areas.

• 49:02Speaker 02

  That's what I mean. All right. Our final topic.

• 49:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Yep.

• 49:06Speaker 02

  Are prediction markets telling us who will win the election?

• 49:10Anthony Pompliano?

  Yes.

• 49:11Speaker 02

  Well, prediction markets seem to be all the rage right now. I was talking to somebody in real estate today. He knew all about prediction markets.

• 49:19Anthony Pompliano?

  Smart guy.

• 49:20Speaker 02

  What? Yeah. But given that it's political season, all people, all eyes are on the prediction markets, and they seem to be telling us that Donald Trump will win in a landslide, but you say that there may be a big problem. There may be some skewing and manipulation.

• 49:38Anthony Pompliano?

  No, I say the opposite.

• 49:39Speaker 02

  Oh, I should read your newsletter.

• 49:43Anthony Pompliano?

  They, the mainstream media said that they think that the data is manipulated. I don't

• 49:47Speaker 02

  That's what you get when you skim. Don't skim, kids.

• 49:49Anthony Pompliano?

  So let me, um, let me maybe lay out for a second. Uh, my personal belief is my opinion is Bitcoin is a free market solution to money. I believe that prediction markets are a free market solution to politics. And what do I mean by that? Um, the only way you know until election night, kind of what the sentiment is and all that is polling. Polling is horrible. In 2016, that's probably the most egregious example in our lifetime. Um, there was this like Trump bump where, uh, people would go into the ballot box. Uh, they didn't tell any of their friends. It was very taboo. They voted for Trump. When they walked out, uh, they got asked, who did you vote for? And they said one of two things. They either said, uh, I don't want to tell you, or they said, I voted for, um, the other candidate,

• 50:34Anthony Pompliano?

  the Hillary. And so, uh, that Trump bump meant that that exit polling was misleading people. And when the numbers started to come in of the actual tallying, Trump ended up surprising people and winning. So, so that was like a key piece to it. Now, there is polling where people have these proprietary models. There's the Nate Silvers. There's, you know, many different, uh, media organizations, whatever. Uh, they're only as good as the data they get, right? So that's the first thing is, are people actually telling you the data that you need that's accurate to represent that? The second thing is then how do you calculate it? Right now, I just saw one, I think it was Real Clear Politics.

• 51:14Anthony Pompliano?

  They came out and they said there's a 93% odds that Donald Trump wins the Electoral College. Not general population, but Electoral College.

• 51:21Speaker 02

  That's the one that matters, right?

• 51:22Anthony Pompliano?

  Of course, but that was the thought process. So if you go and you look at the prediction markets, the reason why I tell you 93% from that specific one on Electoral College, they're pricing in like a 63% chance that Donald Trump wins. Now, I've previously said two things. The first thing, and I think this is the most important thing for this election, it has to be a landslide. Regardless of who wins, we need a landslide. It cannot be a close race because if it is a close election, both sides are going to yell and scream that the other side stole it. And so if we want to avoid the questioning of democracy and of an election, it has to be a landslide. Again, whether you like the right or the left, or you're a complete independent.

• 52:05Speaker 02

  Why do you think the left would say that, though?

• 52:07Anthony Pompliano?

  They already said it.

• 52:08Speaker 02

  Who said it?

• 52:09Anthony Pompliano?

  They literally said it after Trump won in 2016. Everyone forgets Hillary Clinton literally said Russia stole the election. They manipulated the election. Again, I'm an independent. I'm not caught in any of this tribalism stuff.

• 52:20Speaker 02

  I do remember Hillary waited to concede.

• 52:23Anthony Pompliano?

  Of course. By the way, what has happened in this country is that because the media is controlled by one side of the political aisle, they yell and scream about all this stuff, they both do it. The national debt doesn't just go up under Republicans, it goes up under Republicans and Democrats. Republicans and Democrats, historically, both sides have claimed that the election was rigged, stolen, all this stuff. I'm not saying that I agree with either side. I'm just saying that as an external observer, as an independent, I see two political factions that are arguing with each other, and they're both claiming at different times that the election was stolen. So if we want to avoid that, we need an absolute landslide. Because if we get the landslide, then what will happen is it'll be too overwhelming for whichever the losing side is, is to claim that, right? Now-

• 53:07Speaker 02

  Is it ever a landslide, though?

• 53:09Anthony Pompliano?

  Usually not. Now, before I go any further, if you think anything that I've said is inaccurate, please go Google it. This is not me.

• 53:16Speaker 02

  Oh, I'm scared.

• 53:17Anthony Pompliano?

  All I am saying is that, and by the way, if I'm wrong, I want someone to tell me, right? This is what I spent a lot of my day doing is trying to understand, try to go find the source of information, try to go find. The first time that I heard that a Democrat had claimed that the election was rigged, the friend who told me that, I thought he was lying. I went and I Googled it, I found the thing, I watched the clip. I said, oh, I did that, that's shocking to me. But it was true. And so going to find the information, do the homework. Don't trust me, go do the homework, go learn for yourself, think independently. But landslide is important. The second thing is, I know, and we've talked about this before, a ton of registered Democrats

• 53:56Anthony Pompliano?

  who are saying publicly, or to us, I can't vote for the far-left leaning policies. They're not talking about candidates. They're just saying, I live in a city that we use those policies and it is bad. It didn't work.

• 54:17Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean.

• 54:18Anthony Pompliano?

  And so, let me caveat one other side of this. Those same people will say a whole bunch of frankly, kind of nasty things about Trump.

• 54:28Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 54:29Anthony Pompliano?

  And then they will say, but I'm gonna hold my nose and vote for him. And so.

• 54:33Speaker 02

  Hold my nose.

• 54:34Anthony Pompliano?

  Two things can be true. You can not like the person, which we could debate all day long, whether you should or not, or whatever, right? But you could not like the person. And also, you can vote for the policies. And I think that that is, again, very anecdotal, but conversations with people across the country that I have, that are friends, that are, and again, I don't talk to a lot of people over the age of 50, I don't talk to a lot of people that are under 25, but kind of in that demographic, I don't have a single friend who is registered as a Republican who says I'm voting the other way. That to me is the shocking anecdote.

• 55:13Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm also an independent, but I think that people who are center-left, I think the right has somehow like acquired those people or like moved just far left enough to capture some of the moderate-left leaning folks.

• 55:35Anthony Pompliano?

  Yes.

• 55:35Speaker 02

  Versus, I think that. At some point, I mean, you know, like, parties shift all the time. I think at some point, the left has kind of become less the party of the working class person and more of like the elites. And now the right is back to

• 55:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Donald Trump was at McDonald's.

• 55:54Speaker 02

  Well, I wouldn't

• 55:55Anthony Pompliano?

  Hold on a second. He had the steelworker hat on, right? He is going into these communities and that are blue collar communities. And what they are saying, again, this is on, Polina knows this. When something happens, I turn on CNN, I flip to MSNBC, I flip to Fox News, and I rotate them. I want to see what they're all saying. I am shocked at how many times in the last 30 days I've turned on CNN. You would think it was Fox News.

• 56:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, I saw that. I was surprised, too. Because I used to work at CNN, guys.

• 56:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Like, I was just like, wait, what? Let me check to make sure I'm actually watching CNN.

• 56:31Speaker 02

  I mean,

• 56:31Anthony Pompliano?

  But I think that that is what's starting to happen, is that you're getting these people who are saying to themselves, again, it's not act, everyone wants to make it a political thing. I don't think that that's really what we're talking about here. What I think people are saying is, I want to be safe, I want to be economically secure, and I want to feel like the future is brighter than the past. And so, what they are asking themselves now is, which policy set is going to help me do that? And I actually think that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both agree on what the policies are to get that done. And that's why you see them going towards the center. In what world are they both agreeing on? No tax on tips, on the southern border wall, and all these different things they're agreeing on? It's because it's clear to the people, which is then being communicated to the candidates,

• 57:16Anthony Pompliano?

  this is the path forward.

• 57:17Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 57:18Anthony Pompliano?

  It's just now that people are going to go in a ballot box, and they're going to ask themselves, who do I actually believe is going to do it?

• 57:23Speaker 02

  Neither candidate is true working class, but they're trying to appeal to those people. And like we just said, a lot of the new millionaires are blue collar business people. So it's very interesting to see how they vote, because I think a lot of those people vote with their business in mind first.

• 57:40Anthony Pompliano?

  It goes back to the guy in New Jersey who says, there's a public health crisis. I run a gym. We make people healthy here.

• 57:54Anthony Pompliano?

  Free American citizens are voluntarily choosing to come to my business of establishment. And you, the government, are telling me that me as a free citizen and them as a free citizen cannot do business together.

• 58:11Anthony Pompliano?

  Kick rocks. And that feeling, I think, is just rushing through the country. And again, what you are going to see is, I think, that more so than any election that I've paid attention to, you also are going to see people who vote one way, Republican or Democrat, in the presidential election, and they're going to pick people down the ballot that may be on opposite sides of the aisle. So like, what we're getting, hopefully, is a little bit more critical thinking, where people are starting to say to themselves, I previously identified as X or Y party, but now what I'm going to do is I'm going to start evaluating the policies, the topics, the who these people are, because we have access to more information. I remember the first time I ever voted, you go in the ballot box, I don't know, maybe no four of the races, but like, you're voting in a state, there's like, you know, the local

• 58:55Anthony Pompliano?

  city, this, whatever, and you're like, I don't even know who these people are.

• 58:59Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 59:00Anthony Pompliano?

  Right? I know the three big races, but I don't know who the, you know, the least popular, smallest election. And people don't, they're like, oh, you should always be educated. Name one person who isn't involved in politics, who walks into that ballot box, and let's say there's 12 races, and they could tell you the policies of all 24 candidates.

• 59:18Speaker 02

  They can't.

• 59:18Anthony Pompliano?

  Of course not.

• 59:21Anthony Pompliano?

  All right.

• 59:21Speaker 02

  On that note, see you guys next week.

• 59:25Anthony Pompliano?

  Thanks, everyone. What's up, guys? I hope you're enjoying this episode, but I got a quick message for you. I just released my very first book. It's called How to Live an Extraordinary Life. In this book, there are 65 life lessons that I've picked up over the years. These lessons will teach you about money, investing, relationships, work, health, happiness, and much more. In this book, I wrote letters to each one of my children, and I tried to share those life lessons with them. If you pick up this book, there's three things that I can promise you. The first is that it is very concise. The audiobook is only three hours. You can listen to it on a long drive or on a rainy afternoon. The second thing is that you're going to learn something. It's worth the price of admission just for the lessons themselves. And then the third thing is it will make you think more deeply about your life and how

• 1:00:10Anthony Pompliano?

  you try to live it. So go pick up How to Live an Extraordinary Life today. It's a quick read. It's very impactful. It's very concise and it would mean the world to me for the support. Go check it out today on Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or wherever you buy your books. Hardcover, audiobook, it all works. Thank you so much for the support and I'd love to hear what you think about the new book.