Zohran Mamdani Wins — Why NYC’s Mayor Race Was a Referendum on Inequality

Ed Elson is joined by Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify, to break down the company’s third quarter earnings. Then, Jessica Tarlov, host of the Raging Moderates podcast, joins the show to discuss the economic toll of the longest government shutdown in history. Finally, Ed unpacks what NYC’s mayoral election says about where the city, and country, is headed. Listen to Raging Moderates Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Order "The Algebra of Wealth" out now Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Follow Scott on Instagram Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Good times mean competitions between you and your friends. Like seeing who can throw some pigskin the farthest, or rush the field the fastest. Winner gets an ultra. Because it's not just a superior light beer, it's also giving fans superior access to their favorite sporting events. Superior is worth playing for. Visit michelobultra.com/superioraccess to enter. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2026 Anheuser Busch InBev Michelob Ultra Beer, St. Louis, Missouri.

• 0:30Speaker 01

  Flowing ad budget on metrics that look great, till the CFO sees them. That's bullspend. And marketers are calling it out. In. Dashboard. Confessions.

• 0:39Speaker 02

  I remember telling my boss, "It'll be good for the brand", when leads were slow. Yeah, it, it wasn't.

• 0:47Speaker 01

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• 1:00Speaker 03

  I get so many headaches every month.

• 1:02Speaker 04

  It could be chronic migraine. Fifteen or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more.

• 1:08Speaker 05

  Botox, on botulinum toxin A, prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those who have 14 or fewer headache days a month. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS, Lou Gehrig's Disease, Myasthenia gravis, or Lambert Eaton Syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.

• 1:52Speaker 04

  Why wait? Ask your doctor. Visit botoxchronicmigraine.com or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more.

• 2:00Ed Elson?

  Today's number? 1,000. That's how many times a hummingbird's heart beats per minute. Only two animals have a faster recorded heart rate. They are the Etruscan shrew, and also Bill Ackman, right now.

• 2:18Speaker 07

  Money markets. If money is evil, then that building is hell.

• 2:28Ed Elson?

  Welcome to Profty Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is November 5th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices declined as AI valuation concerns dragged down tech stocks. Palantir sank 8% after Michael Burry disclosed a $900 million bet against the company. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slid 6%, dropping below $100,000 for the first time since June. The dollar hit its highest level since May. And finally, Tesla fell 5% on news that one of its largest investors voted no to Elon Musk's $1 trillion pay package. Results of the vote will come tomorrow at the company's annual shareholder meeting.

• 3:12Ed Elson?

  Okay, what else is happening? Shopify posted a strong quarter of growth yesterday, but rising costs weighed on investor sentiment. Revenue rose 32% year-over-year, beating estimates. However, net income fell 68% as operating expenses increased significantly. Shares closed down 7% on the results. Just a reminder, what is Shopify? This is your one-stop-shop platform for e-commerce. It helps you set up your website and your payments and your shipping, etc. So if you are a small to medium-sized retail business, chances are you're using Shopify. But they are also now expanding to larger companies, too. Companies like Mattel and Luxottica and Estee Lauder, lots of large retailers.

• 3:56Ed Elson?

  So Shopify is a juggernaut at this point, a juggernaut in e-commerce, more than $200 billion in market cap. And I am very pleased to say that we are breaking down these Q3 earnings with the president of Shopify, Harley Finkelstein. Harley, great to have you on Profty Markets.

• 4:14Speaker 08

  Great to be here, Ed. Big fan of the show and big fan of yours. So thanks for having me.

• 4:17Ed Elson?

  Wow. Thank you very much. That is, that is very kind coming from you. We want to talk through the earnings here. Some pretty incredible numbers. Revenue up 32%. Gross merchandise volume also up 32%, $92 billion. Let's just start with like your headline takeaways on this most recent quarter for Shopify.

• 4:38Speaker 08

  Yeah, you know, I've been I've been doing these earnings calls for over 10 years now since the IPO. I think this is an earnings call number 42, maybe 43 at this point.

• 4:49Speaker 08

  GMV, obviously, you know, $92 billion is is super important because it's a proxy for how well merchants are doing on Shopify. That's up 32%. What I don't think was was well understood was that that is our ninth consecutive quarter of GMV above 20%. So that I was really excited about. On the revenue side, 2.8 billion, up 32% as well. That's our 10th consecutive quarter of 25% of greater top line growth. And the free cash flow was 18, 18% of revenue or about 507 million. So that's 12 consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow and nine consecutive free, nine consecutive quarters of double digit free cash flow margin. Why does this matter? One of the things that we've been trying to to articulate, and I hope I've done a good job of this, is this idea of like durable, consistent growth.

• 5:34Speaker 08

  And Shopify will do what we say we're going to do. I talked about, you know, in our last call that we're going to be doing something in agentic commerce. Obviously, I was able to announce a couple, two weeks ago, that that we're doing this incredible work with OpenAI, but also with perplexity. So ultimately, while the numbers themselves, I think, are incredibly impressive and we're balancing kind of top line and bottom line. What matters to me is Shopify is a well trusted publicly traded company. And I think the way you do that is just to do what you say you're going to do.

• 6:01Ed Elson?

  From my understanding, Shopify is investing pretty significantly into AI. R and D spend up this quarter. You recently announced this integration with OpenAI. Like, what is AI have to do with Shopify? How does it help the business? Where does it fit in?

• 6:17Speaker 08

  Yeah, I was just with this two buckets. The first is, or maybe three buckets. The first is, the first bucket is, is how we use Shopify. We're flexibly inside the company. And obviously, you know, there's now, I think, a leaked email out there somewhere that Toby wrote to the entire company talking about that. Shopify has to be a reflex, has to be AI reflexive, meaning we, we, every person that works here thinks about how they can use AI to make their job better. And in fact, you know, before you, you, you ask to to hire someone, a new person, you have to first substantiate why AI cannot help you do it. That is. embedded in the culture of the company. And so, you know, a good example is our support organization, our frontline support organization, where now they're able to have much more of these high quality conversations, like helping merchants grow their business and less of the low quality conversations like,

• 7:01Speaker 08

  you know, password reset or domain or C name configurations. So that that is important. The second bucket is probably how merchants, we give these tools to merchants. And that's really where Sidekick plays a role. This idea that, you know, I mentioned on the call, but, you know, so far since since we launched it, 750,000 of our merchants are using Sidekick to effectively as a core part of running their business, whether it's writing reports or analytics or figuring out which, you know, which products are selling better, where to launch campaigns, things like product photography or product descriptions or merchandising. This idea of giving merchants these like superpowers through Sidekick, which knows everything about your business and knows everything about Shopify. And maybe the third bucket is is really on this Agentic side, that we believe there may be a new surface area

• 7:46Speaker 08

  that will be an important surface area beyond just the online service and offline service and social services whereby merchants can actually find new customers. And so our our objective and our model there is really to make sure that we're not only like, we want to be the launch partners there. We want to build the best permutations of what could be. We don't know exactly what Agentic is going to look like, but whatever the permutation might be, Shopify and our merchants are deeply embedded to it. And, you know, Agentic obviously is getting a lot of attention now. The OpenAI announcement did, but we're also working with Microsoft Copilot, who's already adopted our CheckoutKit or with Perplexity. And so, again, if we do see a shift in consumer behavior whereby more searches and more discovery happens on using an agent in chat,

• 8:30Speaker 08

  we've now built a set of tools with CheckoutKit with with Shopify Catalog, so we can deliver these things kind of on a silver platter to these Agentic applications and they can ingest it. And now our merchants have a brand new place to to engage with the consumers.

• 8:45Ed Elson?

  Yeah, I have a couple of slightly less Shopify focused questions. One is, you know, I mentioned $92 billion in gross merchandise volume. You are the president of one of the largest e-commerce companies in the world. The way I see it, you kind of have like a front row seat to the consumer, or at least how the consumer is doing. Based on your, what you see in the data you see at Shopify, how is the consumer doing right now? You know, we've seen inflation rising, obviously the tariffs. Is that having any effect on consumer behavior right now?

• 9:19Speaker 08

  Well, look, for us at least, consumer confidence is measured at the checkout. That's what we see. On Shopify, what I can tell you is shoppers, they keep buying, they keep returning. Demand has remained resilient across pretty much every channel, every category. So I can only comment what we see at Shopify. But if you look at GMV, look at revenue growth, consumers, maybe this is worth mentioning, consumers are certainly being more selective. They are buying from brands they love. We are very fortunate that the brands and merchants love happen to be on Shopify. And we've baked that into our, you know, our Q4 outlook, and it suggests that. But if you look at the Q3 numbers, you know, it was another quarter

• 10:00Speaker 08

  of consistent GMV growth by our merchant, 32%. And that was up, I think, from, that was, and it was 31% in Q2. So it's nine consecutive quarters of GMV growth above 20%. I think it highlights the resilience of our merchants. I think it actually shows that there is a segment of consumers that are still buying. They're just buying from brands they love, and they're being more selective about that.

• 10:23Ed Elson?

  Yeah. And then I have a question about investor relations.

• 10:27Speaker 08

  Sure.

• 10:28Ed Elson?

  I've been saying for a while that, you know, traditional investor relations is kind of boring. It's outdated. The days of CNBC and webinars is coming to an end.

• 10:39Ed Elson?

  Now is the time to lean into new media, et cetera. And I often cite you as an example of someone who is doing it right. Someone who's getting on social media, leaning into short form, going on podcasts. You've been doing it for a while. Indeed, you are now on a relatively young podcast for the first time. I'd just love to get your views on investor relations in 2025. What is your approach? What is your philosophy? And how should other public company leaders think about it moving forward?

• 11:09Speaker 08

  I can't tell any other public company what to do. I can tell you the way that we look at it, the way that I look at it is this is a storytelling opportunity.

• 11:16Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 11:16Speaker 08

  It isn't the quarterly earnings are just, it is, it is a bookmark every three months. And it allows us to go out and talk to obviously investors, but also talk to our merchants, talk to our partners, talk to the media, talk to the general public about how Shopify is doing. It's a check in. And I think the traditional way of doing it, which is you do your earnings call. In some cases, you know, you don't even take Q and A, which I think is ridiculous. We spent about half the earnings call talking about the quarter, then opening up for Q and A. And then kind of doing the media tour. I mean, look, the reason I'm on your show now, Ed, is because I believe that there are more people than simply just the investors of Shopify who are interested in learning how we are doing.

• 11:56Speaker 08

  If you are building, if you are Stefan, you're the CEO of Estee Lauder and you have carriage and the responsibility of a 40 or 50 billion dollar company. And you've just selected Shopify. I think you care a lot about Shopify's performance, not just on one quarter, but quarter after quarter. If you're a Shopify partner, if you're a great company like Klaviyo, for example, or another company like Affirm, for example, which is deeply embedded in Shopify. I think you're very interested in how Shopify is performing quarter after quarter. If you're simply just someone who is in tech, and I think you've done a great job, the guys from TVP N have done a great job of this. We effectively are consumerizing to some extent, this, the traditional IR function.

• 12:37Speaker 08

  And the companies that get it, you notice it, you notice that the way they are speaking is simply different.

• 12:42Ed Elson?

  Yes.

• 12:42Speaker 08

  And I think, you know, this is not necessarily across the board, but I think the companies that do it better. Typically are founder-led companies. The founder-led companies, call it founder energy, whatever you want to call it, founder mode, the founder-led companies tend to be better at that because they're just like, they just care more. There's a, I don't know if I can say this on the show, but there's a give a shit factor that I think is above those where you have a professionally managed company, where the executive team are a bunch of, you know, suits and they're hired to do a job. But like Shopify is a mission-driven company. Shopify may be, you know, a $200 billion market cap company. We're the entrepreneurship company. We care deeply about entrepreneurship. We care deeply about, you know, retail and commerce and where it's going.

• 13:27Speaker 08

  And I think the earnings call is an opportunity for that. And also from a recruiting perspective, the people that want to come to Shopify, if you are looking to come work at Shopify or any company, it behooves you to listen to the earnings call to know what is exciting about this company? What are they talking about? So I think you were early also in sort of the analysis that this industry is changing and not everyone is keeping up. But the ones that do, there is alpha opportunity in that.

• 13:52Ed Elson?

  Hundred percent. Thank you very much. Harley Finkelstein, president of Shopify. Really appreciate your time, Harley.

• 13:59Speaker 08

  Thanks, Ed.

• 14:00Ed Elson?

  After the break, the economic impact of the longest government shutdown in history. If you're enjoying the show, give Prof G Markets a follow.

• 14:16Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Good times mean competitions between you and your friends, like seeing who can throw some pigskin the farthest or rush the field the fastest. Winner gets an ultra because it's not just a superior light beer, it's also giving fans superior access to their favorite sporting events. Superior is worth playing for. Visit michelobultra.com/superioraccess to enter. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2026 Anheuser Busch InBev Michelob Ultra Beer, St. Louis, Missouri.

• 14:44Speaker 09

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• 15:14Speaker 03

  I get so many headaches every month.

• 15:17Speaker 04

  It could be chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more.

• 15:22Speaker 05

  Botox, onabotulinum toxin A, prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those who have 14 or fewer headache days a month. Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms. Alert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease, myasthenia gravis or Lambert Eaton syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.

• 16:07Speaker 04

  Why wait? Ask your doctor. Visit botoxchronicmigraine.com or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more.

• 16:19Ed Elson?

  We're back with Prof G Markets. It's official. We are experiencing the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Today marks the 36th day of the shutdown, passing the 35-day record that was set in 2018. So far, one in every eight Americans has gone without food assistance, 1.4 million federal workers have missed paychecks, and key economic data has gone dark. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that at least $7 billion in economic output has been permanently lost. And if the shutdown lasts another week, that loss may reach $11 billion. So here to help us unpack this shutdown, what it means, how it is affecting our economy,

• 17:01Ed Elson?

  we are speaking with Prof G Media's very own Jessica Toloff, host of the Raging Moderates podcast. Jessie, great to have you on.

• 17:08Speaker 10

  Yeah, it's fabulous to be here. Thank you for the invitation.

• 17:12Ed Elson?

  Absolutely. I love a crossover. I loved going on your show, so thank you for having me on RM.

• 17:18Speaker 10

  Yeah, no, it was great. And Scott was thrilled, too. Like his kids were playing nice or something out in the backyard.

• 17:25Ed Elson?

  Exactly. Maybe a little jealous, perhaps.

• 17:28Speaker 10

  Always a little jealous. It keeps him going, though. Like, even on book release week, he can find it in himself. He's like, I'm number one on Amazon, but you're hanging out with Ed without me. And that kind of burns me. So it's a good thing.

• 17:44Ed Elson?

  Exactly. We love the FOMO. Well, we want to get your reaction to this shutdown, this record-breaking shutdown. I guess let's just start with your initial reactions. What do you make of this?

• 17:55Speaker 10

  Well, I think that it is incredibly sad for the United States. Obviously, people are feeling this deeply. And you called out the loss of SNAP benefits to 42 million Americans, which amounts to 1 in 8, which is a disheartening number, to say the least. And people, you know, you don't feel anything more intensely than when you don't have a meal to look forward to. And the heartbreaking stories that are pouring in of people waiting on food pantry lines, because usually people that are on SNAP, it's a misconception that SNAP covers the entirety of their meal provisions. But it's usually that they have to be on SNAP and then also work with local food pantries to make sure that their families have enough to eat.

• 18:40Speaker 10

  So you're just hearing absolute heartbreak from around the country as the Trump administration, so far, looks like they're saying that they're going to comply with a court order, according to the press secretary, but Donald Trump is posting himself on Truth Social that they are not going to. So you just have people really left in limbo. So sad day for the United States. It also doesn't feel like this is going to end anytime soon. The betting markets have it at over 50% odds that it goes into the back half. Of November, um, there are people who are talking about, you know, 60 days, 90 days. That feels inconceivable to me based on the level of pain that it's causing. But Democrats are also very dug in on this.

• 19:25Speaker 10

  And I was, I don't want to say skeptical, but based on what happened in the funding fight back in March, the first time that we did this during the second Trump administration, the Democrats folded pretty quickly. Like, it was about 20 minutes before Chuck Schumer was like, actually, you know what? Let's keep the government open. Let's see what it looks like, how they're actually going to run the government in Trump 2.0. And now the answer is very clear about how Trump 2.0 is going to run the government. And it's simply not good enough, not for my party and not for the American public. And poll after poll after poll shows that this is a fight that the Democrats should have taken on because people can't have their ACA premiums going up an average of 114%.

• 20:10Speaker 10

  Some people have already seen, because the ACA exchange has opened, up to 400% increases. And you still have millions of people that are going to be thrown off Medicaid because of the Big Beautiful bill. So they're blaming the Republicans, I mean, 10 to 15 points, depending on the poll. And so Democrats feel pretty secure.

• 20:27Ed Elson?

  For those who haven't been following that closely, could you just like, I mean, you mentioned the ACA premiums going up. Can you just spell out for us, like, what exactly is the disagreement here? And why hasn't this been resolved?

• 20:40Speaker 10

  So this hasn't been resolved because Washington doesn't work, which I feel like is the answer to every question that you could possibly give to a political strategist. I'm probably putting myself out of business, but if you programmed someone who looks loosely like me in these kinds of glasses, so me or Rachel Maddow, and said, what's wrong? And they'd say, Washington doesn't work. The Republicans have been claiming that they are putting forward a clean CR, so a clean continuing resolution to keep the government open. And that would be true if the Big Beautiful bill hadn't happened. But it did happen, and that passed in May, and that totally changed the calculus.

• 21:20Speaker 10

  Of how Americans are thinking about their lives and certainly how the Democratic Party is thinking about a resolution to keep the government open. And there were so many massive cuts that came in through the big beautiful bill. Democrats took a step back and they thought, we're in the minority, right, of absolutely no institutional control. How can we possibly leverage what little power we have to affect the most change? And so they zeroed in on healthcare, which has typically been the issue that Democrats have done better on. We've lost a lot of ground over the years in terms of who's better trusted on the economy, immigration, crime and policing, all these very important issues, but always remained ahead on healthcare, due in part to having passed the Affordable

• 22:04Speaker 10

  Care Act under Obama, but also the Republicans' refusal to even put forward a bill themselves. You know, they're still in the quote, "concepts of a plan" phase. So Democrats basically dug in and they said, if you are not even going to have a conversation with us, that would mean that we would include restoring the Medicaid cuts, which happened in the big beautiful bill, and making sure that we do something about these ACA premium increases, which are going to go up astronomically in a matter of months, then we can in good conscience fund the government. Yeah. I think that Republicans thought that Democrats would balk, à la March. And I think that they also thought that the American public wouldn't be so animated about it.

• 22:45Speaker 10

  But that has not been the case. So while the shutdown has been going on, Democrats have creeped up in their advantage on the generic ballot. It's eight points now in the NBC poll. It was only one point in March. So that could spell a quote unquote "blue wave" is what you call it. But on top of it, you would see even today, there was reporting that in the Senate GOP lunch, that members were saying very loudly to Senator Thune, the Majority Leader, that they want to at least have a GOP bill on funding the Obamacare subsidies, so they could at least show the American public that they're trying to do something without being forced to either take on a Democratic written bill or even a bipartisan bill. So they are hearing it at home. If they do town halls, they're hearing

• 23:29Speaker 10

  it there. They're also seeing it in public opinion.

• 23:32Ed Elson?

  How do you think this will all shake out in the end? I mean, I I looked back at like 2018.

• 23:38Speaker 10

  Yeah.

• 23:39Ed Elson?

  And reminded myself that actually Trump capitulated when we had the 35 day shutdown. And, you know, it was it was a loss for him. And so part of me says, oh, maybe the same thing will happen. But I don't know, maybe 2025 is different. Maybe he's going to continue to dig in and maybe the Democrats will continue to dig in as well. How do you think it all shakes out? How does this end?

• 24:05Speaker 10

  Well, my hope is, and there have been signals from senators on both sides of the aisle. So Senator Thune and then also Dick Durbin on the Democratic side, that they could be nearing some short term proposal that would include a deal on the Obamacare subsidies. If you really got people, you know, off the record, they would say undoing the Medicaid cuts from the big, beautiful bill is really off the table. But we should do something about these Obamacare premiums because they affect Republican voters more than Democratic voters. So 21 million of the 24 million people that are going to be affected are in red states. So I think that a mini deal, like a stopgap solution that involves negotiation over that is the most feasible way out of this.

• 24:50Speaker 10

  But, you know, the pressure is really going to be stepped up because I don't know if you saw ABC is reporting that the Transportation Department is saying that they might have to close some of US airspace because of air traffic control shortages of the 1.4 million workers that are furloughed. That's everything from our national parks to our veterans affairs. SNAP benefits not coming through, also money for Head Start programs. Like, these are all things that really touch people's daily lives. And that drumbeat will get louder and louder and become unsustainable.

• 25:22Ed Elson?

  Yeah, so I would say we're approaching it being unsustainable, but not quite there yet. I think a lot of Americans, if you're not on SNAP, for example, you're probably not really feeling this, but eventually we'll get there if this goes on. I mean, you said back of November. Ultimately, who is going to be to blame? I mean, this is sort of the classic question. If you're experiencing air traffic control shortages, so you can't make your flight to get to your business meeting or whatever it is. Do you blame the Democrats or you do or do you blame the Republicans? What is the consensus, do you think?

• 26:00Speaker 10

  I think the consensus is that you blame the people who are in charge. And that's the blessing and the curse of actually winning elections. Right? You get to effectuate your agenda, but also when something bad happens, the buck stops with you. And the reality is, is that the big, beautiful bill cuts $186 billion out of the SNAP program. And in 2018, with the 35 day shutdown, Trump made sure that people got their SNAP benefits. So they're not being honest in terms of what they can do with funds that have already been appropriated, that actually wouldn't be affected by a government shutdown. And I think the American public is smart enough to know these things. I also think that there are two

• 26:38Ed Elson?

  Right.

• 26:39Speaker 10

  plot line or subplot lines that are going on that are sending a really bad signal to the American public about how Trump is running this government and what he thinks of the average American. The first is the continued construction of the ballroom, the 90,000 square foot ballroom that's replacing the East Wing. So, you know, we could talk about history and how ridiculous this is and that it's not like a basketball court or it's nothing like, you know, building the West Wing or whatever. But the point is, is that while American workers are furloughed, going without food, he can pay a construction crew to do this. And I know

• 27:15Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 27:16Speaker 10

  a lot of that is coming in from his donors and things like that, but it's still very bad optics.

• 27:20Ed Elson?

  The visual stands, yeah.

• 27:21Speaker 10

  Terrible. And then it's even worse to see the Great Gatsby themed party at Mar-a-Lago from over the weekend, which even had, you know, a girl in a martini glass. And it's a, you know, a very on the nose encapsulation of let them eat cake. And I know that Trump is YOLOing him, you know, through the second administration, basically. But I think it's a pretty big middle finger to the people, especially his own voters that are waiting in food pantry lines to say, like, not only do I not care, I'm going to party while this was going on. I thought it was even suspect to go to Asia while the government was shut down.

• 28:04Ed Elson?

  All right. Well, we will be monitoring this closely. Jessica Toloff, co-host of the Raging Moderates podcast. Really appreciate your time. Thanks very much, Jessica.

• 28:14Speaker 10

  Thank you.

• 28:19Ed Elson?

  We're recording this on Tuesday night and at the time of this recording, the results of the New York City mayoral election are not out yet. However, by the time this is published in the morning, the results likely will be. And according to most polls, as well as the prediction markets, the winner will be Zohran Mamdani. Now, this is a markets podcast. It's not a politics podcast. Our job is to talk about money and stocks and finance and economics. But it would be completely obtuse not to acknowledge the myriad ways in which all of these topics are influenced by politics, whether we're talking about inflation or big tech or housing. All of these things are inherently interconnected with what is happening in the political world.

• 29:04Ed Elson?

  Politics drives policy. Policy drives economics and economics drive politics. You cannot divorce these things from one another. And no, you cannot talk about markets without talking about Trump. You can pretend he doesn't exist. You can pretend Wall Street has nothing to do with Washington, but we're not in the business of pretension. We are here to tell it like it is. And I'm sorry, but the reality is if you care about markets, well, by definition, you must care about politics too. So this brings us back to the new mayor of New York City or the new likely mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani. Will his mayoralty move markets? Probably not.

• 29:49Ed Elson?

  Remember, New York City is a city. The extent to which one mayor can impact an economy and even a market is very limited. His job is confined to New York. It's to keep New York's trains running on time. It's to help with New York's housing, New York's public schools. This is not a market moving level of executive power. What could move markets, however, is what this election says. Because as everyone is acutely aware of at this point, Zohran Mamdani is a democratic socialist. And regardless of how you even define that term, the point is this is something different from capitalism, which is important.

• 30:33Ed Elson?

  Because what it tells you is that what this represents isn't just a change to the system, but actually a total and structural overhaul of the system. What Mamdani correctly identified about New York and about America is that the system in its current form actually isn't working for people. The people reject it and they're calling for something else entirely. Now, the big question is, why do they reject it? Well, let's just start locally with New York, where the bottom 40% of earners are receiving about 8% of the total income,

• 31:12Ed Elson?

  where the average resident is spending almost 60% of their income on rent, where the poorest residents die on average 17 years earlier than the richest residents, where income inequality is greater than in any other city in America. That's New York. But then you think broader, you think beyond New York, at the national level, where the top 10%, as we've discussed, now make up for 50% of the spending, where productivity is growing three times faster than wages, where in the past 40 years, the top 19 households have almost 20x their share of wealth, and they now control roughly as much as the bottom

• 31:57Ed Elson?

  65 million households. And when you think about all of this, you start to realize that actually, New York isn't an exception to the rule. New York actually is the rule. It is the purest and starkest representation of where we are at as a nation. And someone came along and said, number one, I recognize the problem. And number two, I'm going to do something about the problem, and it's going to be something big. That's what this is all about. Now, do I believe that Mamdani is actually going to fix the issues? My personal perspective, no, I don't. I think he is an incredible voice, and I think he is a generational

• 32:42Ed Elson?

  symbol of the most important issues in America right now. But no, I do not believe in many of his solutions, some of which I think may actually worsen the affordability crisis, rent freezes being the most important example, and we can have the rent freeze debate another time. But the most important message from the Mamdani campaign, and the message that will reverberate around the nation for years to come, is the following.

• 33:10Ed Elson?

  Inequality in America is no longer acceptable. It has run rampant for decades. It has only gotten worse, and we have only enacted policies that have actively made it worse. And now we are reaching a breaking point.

• 33:28Ed Elson?

  It is indisputable. It is untenable. Whether it's the fact that Americans' belief in capitalism is at an all time low, or the fact that Americans' belief in America is at an all time low, or even the fact that public company CEOs are being shot dead in the streets. Pick your headline, or your survey, or your data point. The signs are all pointing in the same direction. We cannot continue down this path. Now, I don't believe in socialism, and I don't believe in communism. I believe in capitalism. But the people of New York told us loud and clear, whatever this version of capitalism is, it isn't working.

• 34:12Ed Elson?

  And now the question has been posed to leaders around America. And that question is, what are you going to do about it?

• 34:23Ed Elson?

  Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller, edited by Joel Patterson, and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Our research team is Dan Shalan, Isabella Kinsel, Kristin O'Donoghue, and Mia Silverio. And our technical director is Drew Burrows. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I will see you tomorrow.

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