#923 Dylan LeClair On Why The Bond Market Is Flashing Warning Signs

Dylan LeClair is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management, a digital asset fund investing in the analog to digital transformation of money and the emergent financial system. In this conversation, we discuss bitcoin, on-chain metrics, market structure, and what to expect from the rest of the bitcoin bull market. Dylan joins us every Tuesday on "The Best Business Show." To see the video with the corresponding charts that Dylan references throughout the interview, go to "The Best Business Show: LIVE" YouTube Channel ======================= Brave Wallet is the first secure crypto wallet built natively in a web3 crypto browser. No extension required. Store, manage, and grow your portfolio, get NFT & multi-chain support, and more. Download the Brave privacy browser at brave.com/Pomp, and click the wallet icon to get started. ======================= The Pomp Podcast is powered by BetOnline.ag, the world's largest sports betting, casino, poker and horse racing website that accepts cryptocurrency for wagering. BetOnline.ag gives you the ability to use Bitcoin and more than a dozen altcoins to make deposits and withdraw your winnings. There are no crypto transaction fees, and processing is instantaneous and secure. Visit https://promotions.betonline.ag/pomp and use PROMO CODE: POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus on any crypto deposit. BetOnline.ag is available in nearly every country around the world, making it the top global gaming destination for crypto users. =======================

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Dylan Leclerc is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management. He also writes a newsletter with Bitcoin Magazine. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, on-chain metrics, we talk about Bitcoin's price, the market structure, and what to expect in the coming weeks. I really enjoyed this conversation with Dylan, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by FTX US. FTX.us is the safe, regulated way to buy and sell Bitcoin and other digital assets. You can trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than

• 0:44Anthony Pompliano?

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• 1:26Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:10Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:49Anthony Pompliano?

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• 3:06Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 3:29Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, we got Dylan Leclerc coming on. Dylan, my friend, how are you?

• 3:34Speaker 02

  What's up guys? How we doing?

• 3:35Anthony Pompliano?

  We're doing fantastic. How, uh, how's life? Everything good? Sentiment check on Twitter, all good?

• 3:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, doing great. Uh, you know, not, not too much has changed in the Bitcoin price action recently, but macro is heating up and it's getting really interesting.

• 3:47Anthony Pompliano?

  Woo! All right, let's jump into, you got the US 30-year Treasury yields to start with, and it's going just up. Just looks like it's just taking a little rocket ship ride here. What's going on with the 30-year?

• 3:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, more bonds talk today. Uh, like I said last week, and I, you know, I've said it a bunch on Twitter, if you want to understand why Bitcoin's trading like it is, look at equities. And if you want to understand why equities are trading like they are, you have to look at credit, you have to look at the bond market. Uh, where everyone's talking about the inflation prints, uh, and, and really the biggest impact is in the bond market. So we see the 30-year Treasury, Really the entire treasury curve bending upwards just today, just before we came on actually, thirty year treasury broke above three hundred basis points, three percent. And so I think there's, you know, there's a trend, a secular trend, which I show in the next chart of the ten year. And kind of this lower high pattern that we've seen basically for the last four decades.

• 4:39Speaker 02

  And so it's getting very, very, very close to a lot of these kind of, to really a break in trend of this lower high pattern. And there's a whole lot of debt out there that, you know, needs to be rolled over. This is how our monetary system works. And so when yields spike like this, not only is the the value of these bonds getting mark to market lower, but at the same time, the financing costs for all of this debt, the hundreds of trillions of dollars of debt in the global economy is rising rapidly. And so there's a lot, a lot of interesting stuff happening.

• 5:10Anthony Pompliano?

  What is the issue with the breaking of the trend? If that occurs, what, what, what are the ramifications or impact in your opinion?

• 5:16Speaker 02

  Yeah, so I mean, essentially, just to kind of say it again, I think the the point needs to be hammered home that all of this debt in the system, all of this money supply, money is, is, is dead in this system. Money is created through, through lending and it's destroyed through debt default or repayment. And so when debt has to be rolled over, like all debt has to be rolled over, that the, the US government's thirty trillion dollars in debt. And they're consistently running higher and higher deficits. They fund themselves through tax receipts, but increasingly it's through debt. And they're, they were relying in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one on the Federal Reserve to monetize that debt. The Fed's saying inflation's running high, we got to step out of the market. And now it's entirely up to the market and up to investors to, to basically, to fund the US government. And it's through that treasury issuance.

• 6:01Speaker 02

  And so with these yields rising, it's getting a lot more expensive for the treasury and really everyone else in the corporate world, the individual investors to say mortgage rates to finance this debt. And so we're not starting to see the kind of second order implications of this, which is really just kind of a balance sheet crunch. But I think that's to come, and I think that's The biggest story of 2022 so far.

• 6:21Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, it's fascinating to watch this happen. You've got this chart here with gold over global bonds. And again, rising very rapidly. What what is this telling you?

• 6:31Speaker 02

  Yeah, so why why am I talking about gold? Why am I talking about bonds? The Bitcoin analyst, you know? I think really what what we see here, this is a multi-decade chart. It's a trend of hard money outperforming soft money, right? We have fiat-denominated bond markets selling off in a rapid fashion. And I have the bond, the total Vanguard Total Bond Market Index in the chart after this that we can show. But essentially, gold, hard money, been hard money for millennia against fiat-denominated bonds. What's what's this chart show when when we see that the trend really breaking a huge decade-long cup and handle pattern? Well, it's it's showing that hard money is outperforming soft money. And so I also like to look at, say, like Bitcoin versus gold, which is the hardest money against hard money, which is consolidating.

• 7:16Speaker 02

  But I think this this trend, this broad trend of hard money outperforming soft money. And we have, I have later in the chart, we can go over this, but it's USD versus JPY, the Japanese yen. The dollar is almost like the cleanest of the dirty shirts. And so while we see bonds selling off, while we see the dollar really depreciating against real goods and services, we see stuff like gold. And I think eventually, in my opinion, Bitcoin, which is consolidating right now, going to outperform in a big, big way over the coming coming decade.

• 7:48Anthony Pompliano?

  When you see Bitcoin over Treasury bond futures, I know you've got this chart here as well. It looks like it's consolidating, so it's not exploding upwards yet. What what's your expectation for this?

• 7:58Speaker 02

  Yep. So this is a log chart important to kind of understand that just it's it just makes more sense to chart Bitcoin and kind of because of its exponential trends and logarithmic scale. But I think this is the this is the trend that the chart that Wall Street doesn't want you to see. And I think eventually, this is going to break out to all-time highs. And it's really, it's almost like the battle of Treasury Reserve assets. The Treasury market is that world reserve currency. It is the asset that basically all risk is priced off of. And I think the pioneers, the forward-looking Individuals and corporations are saying, I think this Bitcoin thing might be the new risk free rate. It might be the new treasury reserve asset. And while it is super volatile, uh, this is really kind of, I like to denominate assets in each other.

• 8:42Speaker 02

  I mean, the you denominating in USD, obviously there's there's signal there because everything's priced off the dollar in the global economy, most everything. But denominating assets in each other, I think is is really telling and kind of shows these these big broader trends. So while this does look like pretty similar to the Bitcoin chart alone, uh, bonds have been selling off in a big, big way. And so this is actually outperforming and and looks better than just the USD chart.

• 9:05Anthony Pompliano?

  When you look at the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, uh, just down, down only over the

• 9:12Speaker 02

  Dead end lows.

• 9:13Anthony Pompliano?

  Over the, uh, the, uh, short term here, what, what is this telling us?

• 9:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is just showing that fixed income investors are getting their face ripped off essentially. Uh, and you know, Bitcoin Bitcoiners have been kind of, they were kind of chirping at bond investors. Why would you ever hold bonds through 2020, 2021? And this is why, uh, in an inflationary environment, uh, really fixed income gets gets absolutely killed. And so if you bought fixed income, you know, whether it's Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, Treasuries, et cetera, and locked your sin, locked yourself at a 1%, 2% yield, not only is inflation just killing your real returns, it's actually negative. But also the, because of the duration of these instruments, um, the longer dated the bonds as as yields rise, that the value of those ETFs themselves fall.

• 9:59Speaker 02

  And so you lock yourself into a low yield and the the principal value of your holdings decline in the meantime. And so fixed income investors, really, I think I saw a really interesting stat this morning. There's 500 or so fixed income bond ETFs that that trade on the, on the NASDAQ or in US markets. I think there's only eight that have a positive year-to-date performance and they're only like 1% to 2%. So fixed in income across the board, because of these big broad trends, treasury market selling off in a big way, fixed income across the board is getting murdered. So people will say, you know, Bitcoin's struggling to perform, but the biggest markets in the world where there's 80, 100 trillion dollars of assets, they're, they're getting murdered. And so it's important to Keep that in mind when you're looking at these markets.

• 10:39Anthony Pompliano?

  How about the US dollar currency index? That seems to be pretty telling as well and kind of fits alongside this exact same thought process.

• 10:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, so here's the trend. We have the dollar debasing against real goods and services, but we have most all other currencies. I mean, not everyone, but a lot of the biggest currencies in the world that are depreciating against the dollar. So like, again, the dollar is the cleanest of these dirty shirts. So important to note that the dollar is the world reserve currency. And so most investors, you know, there's a ton of capital around the world that's implicitly short dollars. They have dollar-denominated liabilities. And so they're selling, whether it's their exports or some central banks are selling their currencies for dollars. Essentially, you know, their dollar-denominated liabilities can create this short squeeze. If you look at what happened in COVID, at the same time that every asset on the planet sold off, what happened to the DIX, the dollar index?

• 11:26Speaker 02

  There was a super spike, right? So we're not there yet, but this is kind of indicative of tightening financial conditions. And really, it's showing that weaker fiat currencies, the euro, the yen, are selling off faster than the dollar. And so I think, like, kind of my case and what a lot of other investors in Bitcoin kind of think is that the dollar is failing, but it will be the last fiat to really fail, to collapse. And that sounds somewhat dark, but in essence, all these fiat currencies are weakening and are designed to weaken, are designed to debase. But the dollar is, again, just the strongest of these weak currencies and because we are in this world reserve currency status. And so if you want to look at like Bitcoin's chart and a lot of these, you know, emerging market currencies

• 12:11Speaker 02

  or just other currencies, or say like the Japanese yen, the gold denominated in yen, the chart looks way, way different than a dozen dollars. And so as a US-centric, you know, investor, it's important to kind of understand that there are other markets and that the dollar, even though it's weakening, a lot of other countries have it a lot worse.

• 12:28Anthony Pompliano?

  So when we take a look at this last chart, we have JPY, BOJ, and then the relative fiat decay. And this is

• 12:37Speaker 02

  Just a continuation of what you're describing? Yeah, so I my kind of thesis and what I've kind of repeated on this on this show for the past quarter, really all of 2022 is that Bitcoin's consolidating, it's an accumulation phase. All the on-chain metrics that we showed, didn't go through any today, but all the on-chain metrics that we show, most of them show the hodlers are stacking and you know that that free float supply is kind of constraining. Bond market selling off, Bitcoins correlated with the NASDAQ. These are kind of the big ideas. And my my case, my thesis is that eventually the bond market breaks because inflation is at multi-decade highs. And something, you know, whether it's, you know, kind of under the surface, something in the credit markets break in the plumbing of the financial system. And what happens?

• 13:21Speaker 02

  And because of the lack of tools the Federal Reserve has, right? They've only lifted rates by 25 basis points and they've done a decade of quantitative easing. It ultimately leads to yield curve control. So so what are we showing here? We're showing the yen against the dollar. And look at the chart, it's broken multi-decade highs. So why is that? Well, if you look at the last candle, it's kind of it's kind of wild, right? What happened there? Japanese, the Bank of Japan implemented yield curve control. They're saying we're going to buy these bonds. If you let it get above this rate, which means if the if the bonds sell off below a certain level, we're going to buy an unlimited in theory amount of them. And so this is two, again, this is two relative fiat currencies. So they're both decaying in real value, but the yen is depreciating rapidly against the dollar.

• 14:04Speaker 02

  So if you want to do this thought experiment, when when the Fed inevitably flips course, and they will, it's a matter of not if, but when, you have an absolutely scarce monetary asset in Bitcoin against a fiat currency that's, you know, in theory going to be printed at infinitum to keep the bond market held together. And so that's why holding an absolutely scarce asset in the in the face of yield curve control and theoretically an unlimited amount of debt monetization is very, very powerful. We're not there yet and the Fed's still jawboning, saying they're going to tighten. And they somewhat have to, they're kind of they have that political. Pressure to do so, but bear none, all, all kind of roads lead to yield curve control at more debt monetization and credit expansion.

• 14:44Speaker 02

  This is the end game of the long-term debt cycle. We're living through it and you know, the days and weeks go by and it feels like nothing's happening and Bitcoin is doing nothing. But make no mistake about it, hodlers understand this end game, they're cornering the market and if not when, uh, I'm sorry, when not if yield curve control comes Bitcoin's going to make this uh yen chart look, look like a joke.

• 15:05Anthony Pompliano?

  One of the things I've been thinking a lot about uh for like the last 24 hours. So you know, all it takes is a grain of salt. Is uh recently Mohammed El Iron, uh the Alliance Chief Economic Advisor and the former CEO of PIMCO. Uh, he went on CNBC yesterday and he started talking about the raising of the Federal Reserve's inflation target rate. So right now it's 2%. He started talking about, well, like what if they raise it to 3%? Which like 2 to 3% doesn't sound crazy until you're like, well, that's a 50% increase in the inflation target. For the world's, you know, most trusted, largest central bank, uh of the world's largest, most powerful economy in the world.

• 15:47Anthony Pompliano?

  What is the impact of stuff like that? Like, how crazy would that be if, if that was to occur?

• 15:53Speaker 02

  Yeah, well, I mean, I think at the very least, the Fed's credibility, if they had really any left or any smidge of credibility left is, is really taking a hit. Um, that, that you know, the repeated line of the inflation is transitory, you know, 2% is our long-term target if it overshoots a little bit. And now inflation's at 8.5% and it continuing to accelerate month over month. Um, there's a problem and it's, and the, the worrisome thing is that really we, I don't think monetary policy is the correct tool here. There's a, there's a constraint on, on real goods and services. There's a commodities crunch. There's an energies crunch. There's, there's a ton of CapEx amount, uh, under investment over the past decade. And so uh, these things aren't going to be resolved easily.

• 16:36Speaker 02

  Um, potentially we're kind of at the crux of this, you know, four decade-long trend of globalization reversing. Uh, and so the, all of these things are super inflationary. If the US wants Onshore manufacturing, good luck with CPI, you know, averaging at three, three percent over the next decade. It just doesn't seem, doesn't seem too feasible. And so the reality is, and these are again, we're repeating these big, big, big picture ideas here. Um, there's hundreds of trillions of dollars of assets, of assets that are priced off of basically negative real yields. And so there's a problem, there's a big problem. And so every investor on the planet needs to continue to ask themselves, how my position is my capital, um, not just in nominal terms, but in real terms and purchasing power terms.

• 17:19Speaker 02

  Am I insulated from all this? And I, and I truly believe even at these levels, uh, if you're holding fixed income products, even if you're holding just a lot of equities that are valued off of these negative real yields, are you insulated? Um, and I would, I would say in my opinion, no, um, no, you're not completely insulated. You may be in nominal terms, but in real terms, you're, you're losing purchasing power at a rapid rate. So my, my position is, is I hold Bitcoin and I continue to buy Bitcoin every single day. That's unchanged. Uh, I'm, I'm not marking my position to market every quarter and, uh, any leverage if there is, uh, you know, on the position is, is very minimal. So volatility doesn't worry me.

• 17:54Speaker 03

  Joe, John, what questions you guys got? Dylan, when you look at what's happening around the world, we saw that Australia today is announcing that they are going to go ahead and approve a spot ETF that is linked to other spot ETFs. What are your thoughts around, uh, how that can affect the market moving forward?

• 18:09Speaker 02

  Yeah. I mean, I saw Barry Silver, uh, quote, retweet Gary Gensler today. Um, you know, I think it is, it is somewhat, uh, kind of crazy or asinine that we don't have a spot ETF, uh, in the United States. Uh, it's definitely, it has nothing to do with investor protection. And I think it's a matter of, uh, you know, it's a matter of time until we get one. I imagine like grayscale, uh, trust with 600,000 plus Bitcoin will be converted. Uh, how that, that works in practice is, is something that I'm, I'm not sure of the details, but, uh, you know, the floodgates will be open when that happens. There's a whole lot of capital that can't just go buy Bitcoin on Coinbase. Uh, the institutionalization of Bitcoin, there was kind of that landmark of 2020 with MicroStrategy as the first publicly traded company,

• 18:51Speaker 02

  but it's still not, uh, not too mainstream. It's, it's still very hard for say, you know, these. These credit funds, these fixed income funds, uh, maybe pensions to allocate to Bitcoin itself. You know, they can out, they can allocate to publicly traded companies with Bitcoin exposure, but it's still really hard to get, to get, you know, exposure to the asset itself. So I think, you know, in terms of Australia's capital markets having access to it, uh, they're expecting, I think I saw a billion of inflows. So not too significant, but, uh, the expected US equivalent of that would be a hundred billion. And so that's significant. We're not there yet, but again, just a matter of, of when, but not if.

• 19:27Anthony Pompliano?

  Gotcha. Joe, what do you got? Dylan, how do you think about timing for the Bitcoin market in general? We've obviously moved sideways for a period now, uh, with some greater uncertainty when it comes to the global economy and, and interest rates and so forth. And we've moved in line with equities. How long do you think this lasts? And more importantly, what are you looking at when it comes to a breakout?

• 19:46Speaker 02

  Yeah. So really, uh, my kind of base case is I'm watching, I'm watching more of legacy markets than I ever did, uh, in terms of volatility indices. So the VIX, I'm watching credit really closely and I'm watching for better or worse, the kind of the positioning of the Fed, they're still in the kind of tightening mode. They haven't even begun to, to withdraw their, or to, to kind of taper their balance sheet. Um, and so I think we're in for another kind of quarter or so, maybe, maybe longer of volatility and likely, uh, drawdowns in, in equity indices. And I think it's really a matter of time until we get a Fed pivot. The exact timeline is unknown, but for the Bitcoin investor, I mean, you can set limit orders a little bit lower, um, likely to fill, maybe not. Personally, I'm very comfortable with continuing my dollar cost averaging strategy.

• 20:31Speaker 02

  Um, and on a personal level as well as, uh, with the fund I work with, which is just Bitcoin, a Bitcoin denominated alpha fund, uh, where the whole goal is to outperform Bitcoin. And so when that time comes where, you know, it's peak fear, maybe we see equity market capitulation, credit market, uh, capitulation, something in, in the kind of the plumbing of the financial system really breaks, uh, we're looking to actually, uh, increase our Bitcoin exposure and, and likely adds, you know, a good amount of leverage, uh, not there yet. And that's not something I'm advising, uh, for the average person. Simply stacking spot Bitcoin to cold storage is, is more than enough and will definitely insulate you from, from this kind of debt monetization and monetary expansion that is to come. Uh, but yeah, I, that's, you know, that's what I'm completely comfortable with.

• 21:14Speaker 02

  Uh, I think anybody that's buying Bitcoin today shouldn't be thinking in terms of days, weeks, months, even quarters or years, uh, but just have a really long time horizon. And, and if you do, uh, You'll do great.

• 21:27Anthony Pompliano?

  Dylan, my last question for you before we let you go is if you had to think out over the next, I don't know, two, three years, you get to pick one chart to pay attention to, to understand both the macro economy, but also Bitcoin. What's the one chart that you're like, man, this is the one I would pay attention to? This is the one that I would put the most importance on?

• 21:46Speaker 02

  Yes, that's a really tough, that's a really tough question. I mean, I would say, I would say, you know, even though we didn't even show it today, just probably the Bitcoin chart itself, price, price action is definitely important. But if not that, then I would, I would definitely probably choose maybe the VIX or some, some credit market kind of tool. I really think that these are, these are the tells that the legacy system is, is in. It's not last days, because again, this sounds like very, very doomer. But in terms of the macroeconomic backdrop, we have to remember that the world's more over indebted, the US and the world than it's ever been. Interest rates, maybe not now, but as of a year ago, were lower than they've ever been,

• 22:27Speaker 02

  especially in real terms. And so really, the only way out is for financial repression to continue, meaning inflation higher than, than yields. And so this is, this is basically every capital allocator's dilemma. And I think, again, I just to continue to repeat myself, I feel like I've been, been beating the drum on this for, for over a year now, since I've, I've been, you know, doing this job full time, and especially since I've been coming on here. But this is, this is what every capital allocator needs to ask themselves, is how are you going to outpace, outpace the financial repression? And my continued response is Bitcoin.

• 23:02Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, I think that that so far has proven to be a pretty good, pretty good strategy. We'll see how it plays out moving forward. But we appreciate every single Tuesday you coming on and educating us. My understanding is that you're going to be gone for a couple of weeks. So what was it, a three week no Dylan? Or maybe lost at sea without you there, buddy?

• 23:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, headed to Europe for, for a few weeks to have some fun, but I will be back.

• 23:26Anthony Pompliano?

  That just sounds cool. Headed to Europe. Like, I'm just going over here. I'll see y'all later. What's, what's up with the, the follower count? How, how are we looking on that? Even when priced down slash sideways, account's still growing, right? Ooh, 155.

• 23:42Speaker 02

  Yes, sir.

• 23:43Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, I like it. I like it. All right. Where, where, oh, there we go. And obviously, the newsletter as well, anyone wants to go? Check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro provides an in-depth look at the Bitcoin market, daily content, etc. I appreciate you, man. Any last words you want to leave the people with? Oh, appreciate you guys as well, and we'll catch up in a few weeks. All right, have fun, stay safe. Cheers. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry.

• 24:26Anthony Pompliano?

  It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.