Understanding Africa's Geopolitical Landscape | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

In this episode of Eyes on Geopolitics, Dee and Jason engage with Ladd Serwat, an expert on African geopolitics, to discuss the complex dynamics of conflict and foreign influence across the continent. The conversation covers recent US airstrikes in Nigeria, the ongoing struggles against Boko Haram and the Islamic State, and the implications of foreign powers like Russia and China in the region. Lad provides insights into the military operations in Nigeria, the contentious relationship between insurgent groups, and the challenges faced by local governments. The discussion also touches on the political repression in Uganda, the situation in Sudan, and the evolving role of Gulf states in African geopolitics, highlighting the need for accurate media coverage of these critical issues. Find Ladd here:⬇️ https://acleddata.com/staff/ladd-serwat https://uk.linkedin.com/in/ladd-serwat-57a63b83 Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Subscribe to our new newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join New merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️ https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.com Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio" 00:00 Start 00:57 US Airstrikes and Religious Violence in Nigeria 06:21 Nigeria's Military Commitment Against Insurgents 08:43 The Relationship Between Boko Haram and Islamic State 10:08 Challenges in Nigerian Military Operations 12:14 Foreign Influence in Africa: China and Russia 15:13 Western European Powers and Their Role in Africa 22:57 Gulf States' Influence in Africa 26:30 Overview of the Sudan Conflict 30:50 Understanding the Rapid Support Forces vs. Sudanese Armed Forces 33:59 Current Situation in Western Africa 37:15 Researching Conflicts: Ground-Level Insights 39:17 Political Repression in Uganda 41:25 Regional Conflicts and the Great Lakes 44:00 Media Coverage of African Conflicts Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

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• 1:01Speaker 03

  Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm joined today with Jason Lyons, of course, and our special guest is Lad Sirwat. I hope I got your last name right, Lad. I'm praying.

• 1:12Speaker 04

  Yeah, Sirwat, that's very good.

• 1:14Speaker 03

  Awesome. Thank God. I've been worrying about that for a week. It's great to have you here, really appreciate it. Lad is an extremely accomplished analyst, dealing with predominantly Africa. He's done some great work. I'm gonna link everything he's done in the description, so you can check it out there.

• 1:35Speaker 03

  Really, I mean, where to begin, right? Like, there's, you know, Africa is a vast continent of different things happening all the time.

• 1:46Speaker 03

  I guess let's start off with, like, what's been going on with the US recently striking alleged jihadist camps and stuff like that in Nigeria. You know, what's your take on that? Like, what's your sense on what's going on and what's gonna happen afterwards with it?

• 2:07Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's certainly one that I've been following for a while. Um, back in September, we saw a number of US politicians, including President Trump, uh, start discussing high levels of Christian targeting in Nigeria. And that started, uh, sort of a snowball effect of more and more people

• 2:32Speaker 04

  talking about this. And I think the, the challenge is that Nigeria does have, uh, high levels of religious violence. Um, but the, the figures of a hundred thousand or fifty thousand Christian fatalities, um, is really not supported by the data. I mean, a hundred thousand fatalities is, uh, is more than the total number of fatalities in Nigeria from militants, from soldiers, from all civilians combined, since the insurgency really escalated in two thousand nine. You know, I, I think it's important to be accurate with the, the concerns, to understand

• 3:14Speaker 04

  the conflicts, um, well, in order to know, you know, what is driving religious violence in Nigeria, where is it happening, which groups are carrying it out. Um, so I think that really is what prompted the, uh, US mobilizing airstrikes on Christmas Day, uh, last year. And those strikes, uh, seem to be targeted against, uh, the Islamic State Sahel Province. Uh, many of the fighters in Nigeria are frequently referred to as Lakerawa, um, but hit, um, numerous sites, uh, around Nigeria's northwest. Um, now, yes, that did strike, uh, IS Sahel.

• 3:58Speaker 04

  Uh, there's not, um, confirmed fatalities, uh, around.

• 4:04Speaker 04

  Did strike in areas that ISL tends to operate. But I think importantly, that's not an area that has had high levels of religious targeting. So we see more religious violence occurring elsewhere in the country. So I think kind of all of that combines, we have a number of factors to consider. But that's kind of a general overview of how we got to those strikes.

• 4:33Speaker 05

  So, Lad, I'm hearing that, if I recall correctly, that the Nigerian leadership pushed back on the fact that it was, these strikes were conducted because the violence was focused on Christians. And I believe they pushed back and said that it's rampant, that there is no distinguishing the violence, that it's not just Christians. Is that true, to your recollection?

• 4:59Speaker 04

  Well, I think what we see from numerous insurgents, you know, Islamic states or Boko Haram, is that they have an Islamist ideology. And they also have media outlets where they tend to frame the violence that they carry out as being against Christian civilians primarily, or make the military out to be a Christian force or something like this. And what we see from many on the grounds, the reports that we receive, is that the violence tends to be more often indiscriminate and affect entire communities. But then the media reports that come out from Islamic states or Boko Haram

• 5:44Speaker 04

  specifically focus on the Christians that are targeted. So they're trying to support the ideology that they have. And sometimes they do, in target Christians. And, you know, I don't want to diminish the fact that they do often carry out targeted violence against Christian communities. But that being said, the scale and the way that the violence more often than not affects entire groups is something that I think we need to add to the conversation.

• 6:17Speaker 05

  No, no, you can go ahead if you, yeah. Let me follow up with asking about, and you, obviously you can't speak for everyone there, even the government, but do you know if uh, they're the Nigerians, whether it's the government or the average person on the street welcomes US intervention in this?

• 6:41Speaker 04

  As far as public support, um, it's, it's not something that I can generally speak to, uh, on these specific strikes. It seems that Nigerian military and intelligence did collaborate with the US, so you know, as far as, uh, you know, the US being in a position of power and being able to carry this out, uh, kind of with or without the Nigerian, uh, supports, uh, that I, you know, I don't have, uh, privy access to, but what I can say is that for these strikes the US carried out, uh, it was done in collaboration with Nigerian officials.

• 7:22Speaker 03

  Um, I mean, what, obviously Nigeria, you know, biggest country in Africa, um, they're going to be playing a major role in the next however many decades in terms like their population is going to continue to grow, they're going to be like an actual, like a real deal powerhouse there, um.

• 7:42Speaker 03

  In terms of like fighting, uh, the Islamic State, are, are like, is their administration like committed to it, like they really are like this is something that they take seriously and like, really fight them?

• 7:59Speaker 04

  Well, the Nigerian military has conducted kind of ongoing campaigns against Islamic states and spoke of Iran now for, you know, well over 10, 15 years. Um, they have aerial capacity, so we do see their military carry out airstrikes in ways of

• 8:22Speaker 04

  The US was trying to accomplish with these missile strikes. And they also have joint forces with other countries in the region. Uh, so they're collaborating uh with countries like uh Shadd and Cameroon and Niger to um. Especially where we see Islamists being able to move across borders uh and retreat from military offensives. I think that's where we see this kind of regional collaboration um really become crucial. Some of that regional collaboration has been strained.

• 8:57Speaker 04

  And I think another point that makes it difficult uh for Nigeria is they've always struggled with local uh police forces. And I think with Islamic State or Boko Haram, they're quite embedded in local areas. They tend to interact with civilians in in the in the region. And I think in ongoing um the ongoing ability to push out militants and truly have long-term solutions is is going to come down to Nigeria's ability to adapt and uh work properly with more localized uh forms of of policing.

• 9:43Speaker 05

  What um to your knowledge, what's the uh relationship between Boko Haram and Islamic State like? Is there a lot of fighting between them or do they collaborate a lot?

• 9:59Speaker 04

  It's more contentious. So we see a fair amount uh and actually increasing in in the past year um the number of clashes between the two groups. So within the Lake Shadd region, um Boko Haram and ISWAP have been contesting for territory, for influence. Um kind of strategic areas, uh especially cross-border areas between Nigeria and Cameroon. Uh Genin uh also has a very contentious relationship uh with the Islamic State Sahel uh further in the northwest part of Nigeria and uh into the Sahelian states.

• 10:39Speaker 04

  So we don't see evidence of collaboration um quite uh quite unlike that. We we see uh high levels of fighting uh between.

• 10:52Speaker 05

  Yeah, you would think that when these groups are uh have their contentious relationships that it would make it easier to uh to counter them, but you know, if you can't get your own house in order, then it's a it's a little bit harder, so.

• 11:08Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And like I said, I think a big part of this is the ways that we see more localized mechanisms, uh stronger intelligence from local communities. A big concern across uh the Sahel in Nigeria and even other parts of Africa has been uh the lack of local police, uh rather in many cases, a more uh federal or central police force that's then deployed uh.

• 11:38Speaker 04

  Is instead arming local uh civilians to form these kind of like community or self-defense groups. And what that has a negative effect on is now insurgents move into a community and the assumption is every civilian is now armed, every civilian is now a target. So we're seeing higher and higher levels of civilians that are targeted by insurgent groups as these countries look to form what kind of self-protection groups as their military struggle to combat insurgents.

• 12:19Speaker 05

  That actually tells nicely into what I was uh gonna ask about. I was looking at one of your from December, uh I think it was an article you wrote about, uh it says the M23s offensive throughout South Kivu culminates in capturing Uvira. It was an expert comment by you. So my question as far as Nigeria is concerned is basically across Africa. Uh I know the Israelis have had an issue in Gaza and uh we, the United States did the same thing in Vietnam with uh fighting for and capturing a city or a hill or whatever and then within 24 hours they're abandoning it for the next um the next objective. Is that an issue uh with you know, in Nigeria with uh the military where they'll take a

• 13:04Speaker 05

  city, you know, from Boko Haram or Islamic State and then kind of just push through and leave it and leave the people vulnerable?

• 13:15Speaker 04

  Yeah, that's certainly something and especially in Nigeria's northwest where we see not only Islamic State Sahel and now Jenim, the Al Qaeda affiliates in that region, but also over a hundred distinct and fragmented bandit groups that constantly are able to contest the states. I mean, as soon as the military forces are moving

• 13:45Speaker 04

  These bandit groups are able to quickly move in and not always take control, but loot or pillage from set up roadblocks in order to carry out extortion from civilians along these areas where the military doesn't have a strong presence at that time. So I think the northwest is particularly vulnerable to that.

• 14:09Speaker 05

  Now, is that due to a lack of numbers on the part of the military? Or is it just their objectives are kind of fleeting?

• 14:19Speaker 04

  There probably is some capacity lacking for the Nigerian military. But yeah, I guess no comment on that one. I can't claim to be a specialist per se on the Nigerian military.

• 14:36Speaker 05

  Gotcha. Okay. Yeah, it seems in a lot of these places, it's body count, you know, kill as many as you can and call it, you know, call it a victory and move on when there's no follow-on logistics to either rebuild the populate, you know, the infrastructure or bring aid to the people that you just supposedly liberated. And that's, you know, just seems to be a common theme.

• 15:05Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think part of the capacity challenge with the Nigerian military is the required service that people, you know, tend to do for, I believe, two years within the Nigerian military. And so, I mean, with that, you have a large population, but also a large proportion of the military that's relatively

• 15:34Speaker 04

  Yeah, less trains and is not there for long term service, but would kind of do their time and then leave.

• 15:43Speaker 05

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• 15:47Speaker 03

  Yeah, no, not at all. This is incredible. I'm learning. I'm learning a lot. Yeah.

• 15:52Speaker 05

  So stepping away from the Nigerian military, but still in that area. What about foreign influence as far as China, Russia? I know Wagner Group is a big subject for you that you're an expert on. What, what, where do you see that all coming in?

• 16:13Speaker 04

  I think for Nigeria, they're quite a key economic player in the region. They have a massive economy. They're a big oil producer, so I think they, they do have numerous economic partners. But from a security perspective, I think the, the biggest challenge for Nigeria has really been foreign influence in the Sahelian states. So what we see across the Sahel has been kind of an anti-French sentiment that Russia has actively cultivated. So Russia has supported disinformation campaigns. They've supported many of the coup now military junta.

• 17:00Speaker 04

  As you mentioned, also sent Wagner, now Africa Corps into supports various military missions. With that, we've seen rather than a contraction of Islamist violence in the Sahel, an expansion, especially the Al Qaeda affiliate, the Jannin, has been rapidly growing, now carrying out widespread economic embargoes and moving across the border into Nigeria. So with that, we're seeing the Nigeria face this kind of impending threat from weakening

• 17:38Speaker 04

  Sahelian states that they're now already having to respond to with insurgents coming across the border and new groups forming.

• 17:52Speaker 04

  That's that all to say, they've long faced challenges internationally with the Lake Chad region. Cameroon's northern area, the extreme north of that country is insecure and they've struggled to contain militants moving across the border there. So maintaining those positive relationships with Cameroon, with Chad, as well as Nigeria has also been really, really important, but is currently strained, especially on the side of Chad that is threatening exiting the joint partnership in the region.

• 18:37Speaker 05

  I'm sorry, I know you mentioned France. Do you have any insight on what Western European countries who have traditionally been, had a colonial presence in Nigeria, Africa as a whole, are they kind of taking their hands off the wheel or does it look like they're gonna, you know, maybe either surge back into Africa to counter the Chinese and Russian threat or, you know, I just wanted to see what your opinion on that is.

• 19:12Speaker 04

  Yeah, with a lot of the kind of Western European former colonial powers, I mean, France being one that has really been pushed out of the Sahel and no longer has the strong presence that they once did in those states. We also see some anti-British sentiment, anti-general, anti-colonial sentiment across the continent that's been, I think, challenging for not only those former colonial states to pivot and kind of understand their new role.

• 19:54Speaker 04

  For these states, how do they adapt to no longer having that former security partner? And...

• 20:02Speaker 04

  With the kind of rollback of development aid and humanitarian aid in the US, we've seen that simultaneously appear with a number of Western European countries that were former strong partners for numerous African countries, the UK, France, you know, kind of go down the list of strong donor countries, many of which aid budgets have been shrunk in order to

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• 22:04Speaker 04

  Deal with the war with Ukraine and to pivot some of those finances into those military Budgets and not saying that that was the the right move or the wrong move to take from that the sort of developments in humanitarian aid. Pot uh and transfer it over to military spending, but I think in effect uh that's what's happened and. The kind of with that waning influence of a lot of these uh former colonial powers.

• 22:37Speaker 05

  Popping on the uh you just mentioned um military and humanitarian aid are. To your knowledge, are countries like China or Russia offering. Offering that humanitarian aid that the United States seem to have pulled back on um. In order to uh advance their influence or is it kind of like, hey, here's the guns and the bullets, you know, handle the rest on your own.

• 23:05Speaker 04

  In the cases that I'm most familiar with, uh Russia's involvement in the Sahel and Central African Republic. That has largely been really uh contractual where Russia offers um say Wagner um mercenary forces. Or they offer support politically. Economically, uh they want something in return, especially in Central Africa African Republic. Uh they're receiving rights to various mining sites, they're logging um in various forested areas. Uh so they're they're pulling out natural resources in exchange for their services.

• 23:50Speaker 04

  I think similar arrangements are uh are true elsewhere. Um although in somewhere like Mali where they're also deeply involved, um it's been more financial that. Uh the Malian government is simply paying Russia for uh their services and. I think with China, we do see various uh aid uh packages. But it's it's different in each country um with some of the um Chinese loans or aid. Um they're quite beneficial to local countries with.

• 24:28Speaker 04

  In the form of aid where they're not required to repay on those

• 24:34Speaker 04

  on the financial distributions or for the support that's given, whether it's building roads or infrastructure. But in other cases, I think Zambia being the big one, you know, there is expectation to repay on those debts and for the Zambian government, those debts are rapidly accumulating.

• 24:58Speaker 05

  Okay. So I know that place, a big story, I don't know, big being relative, has been the recognition of Somaliland.

• 25:12Speaker 05

  Is, are any of the Gulf states, do they have any sort of influence in places like Nigeria or, you know, more of the interlands or do they really stick towards to the the coastal areas in their influence?

• 25:31Speaker 04

  I think the Gulf states, you know, I think about Qatar, for example, currently involved in mediating between the M23 and the Congolese governments. So they're relatively active in playing this mediative role. Qatar has actually been involved even recently in Libya, wanting to be, have stronger economic ties.

• 26:00Speaker 04

  United Arab Emirates has been another one with really fascinating relations across the continent. I mean, when we look at the UAE, doing everything from

• 26:14Speaker 04

  supporting or carrying out strikes in Somalia to supporting the rapid support forces in Sudan, which completely throws off the logic of traditional UAE partnerships. The UAE is actively supporting a group that the US and many Western countries are against. So I think, you know, some of these Gulf relations across the continent are definitely not confined to the countries nearest to them, but sometimes they

• 26:54Speaker 04

  Don't exactly fit into our like common, uh, you know, international relations, uh, picture or narrative, you know, isn't it bizarre that, uh, the US and Iran would be supporting, uh, the same side in Sudan while UAE is on the other side. I mean, that's, uh, you know, defies much of our thinking around, uh, the way that international relations normally.

• 27:20Speaker 05

  Yeah, I was, uh, looking at, I'm gonna give a quick plug for your, your, uh, organization's website, um, which is the, I'm gonna make sure I get this right. The ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, um, really awesome, uh, organization and website. And one of the things that you have is a, uh, like, um, it's an overview map. So I would really like played with the, uh, Africa overview map. And so I was looking at some of the routes between the UAE and the Gulf States and into Africa for arms and things. And so it's like watching a flight go from UAE all the way

• 28:00Speaker 05

  up to Libya and then come down into the interland. And it's just, it's like all over the place. It's like mismatch and it's, um, it's pretty fascinating how these things are happening in real time. And like you said, there, it's like a, um, partnership that you would never think of, you know, the, uh, us as well as Iran backing, you know, not necessarily together, but seem to be backing the same sides in conflicts. And it's just, it's very wild. So I, um, would, uh, encourage everyone to check out the, the website. So, and Dee, can we put that link in the description?

• 28:36Speaker 03

  Yeah, absolutely. That's gonna be in the description. Check it out right now.

• 28:40Speaker 05

  So, um, do you have anything else, Dee, before we switch?

• 28:43Speaker 03

  No, I'm, I am locked in as a listener, basically, right now. If anything comes up, I will scream it. Yeah.

• 28:49Speaker 05

  Awesome. Yeah, this is great. Um, so let's move to, uh, the Sudan. Um, to Sudan, what's, um, what's the overview?

• 29:00Speaker 04

  Yeah, I think, uh, you know, in the last year, oh my gosh. Sudan has really kind of continued to be, uh, extremely deadly, uh, as a conflict. You know, it was amazing going over the data, um, for the kind of 2025 as a whole. And seeing the Rapid Support Forces, uh, be the deadliest group globally when it comes to targeting civilians. I mean, that is really concerning and, you know, while we, I think, have a lot of conflicts in the world to be concerned about or to follow.

• 29:42Speaker 04

  Um, the fact that we do have an armed group carrying out such widespread, um, killing of civilians is, is one that I think makes Sudan, uh, one that we need, um, we need to focus on, we need a, a resolution to. Um, and I think unfortunately where we're at, at the moment is kind of an increasingly de facto partition, uh, between east and west.

• 30:12Speaker 04

  Sudanese Armed Forces were able to capture Khartoum and solidify some of their, uh, territorial gains um, across much of the eastern Sudan. And the Rapid Support Forces, uh, kind of in the area of traditional influence in Darfur, uh, also was able to take, um, uh, kind of major areas across that region. And so we're seeing this kind of east and west, uh, splits take place.

• 30:43Speaker 04

  One thing I would say has been, uh, a development that's happened across the last year is that the Sudanese Armed Forces have traditionally maintained hegemony with their aerial combat. They've had fighter jets, they've had much better air power, uh, in general, um, better long-range, uh, missile systems, uh, and that is kind of changing. Um, it's not that it's completely tipped the scales, but, uh, last year, the Rapid Support Forces did receive, uh, quite a large shipment of the Chinese, um, get it, if I get this right, FH95, uh, drones. And so with that, they've been able to carry out.

• 31:29Speaker 04

  A number of drone strikes and we saw just uh the RSF in this last year really escalates in their aero capacity. So I guess the concern is you have both this partitioning where you have a kind of east-west division with fighting um in the Cortepon region in between. But now the rapid support forces are able to carry out uh farther and farther strikes into uh SAF territory.

• 32:00Speaker 05

  So these drones are, I mean, it's obvious, it's pretty much globally that drones are making a huge difference in the way warfare is conducted and the this the shift in the tide.

• 32:12Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's it's amazing and it's something that I think with ACTLIVE, we're actively um working to understand and monitor these changes. I mean, for a long time, I think we could monitor kind of air and drone strikes in general uh because military-grade drones would be able to carry kind of similar payloads to fighter jets, although there's, you know, obviously tactical differences and there's nuance to that, but uh both, you know, carrying large weapons. Now with commercially available quadcopter drones, armed groups can get a

• 32:52Speaker 04

  hold of these uh relatively cheaply, break in fashion, uh explosive devices to them and carry out uh although much smaller uh explosives remotely and further away uh from their from their own position. So we see that, I mean, to scale in Ukraine, but that's also happening uh throughout uh different conflicts in Africa.

• 33:20Speaker 05

  Taking a step back, because we, Dee and I were joking just before we started taping that we are not the Brookings Institute or Heritage Foundation. So we kind of have people who literally just come off the streets and are like, you know, and listen. So could you explain the differences and maybe similarities between the RSF and the SAF? Because I think most people are think, when they think of Africa and they think of these kind of groups, they just think rebels, just like non-uniforms, just walking around with AK-47s, and they're just killing everybody. So can you explain a little bit about the differences?

• 34:05Speaker 04

  Yeah, with the Sudanese Armed Forces, I mean, this was the military forces of the country that are being led by, you know, the general. But for a number of years, within Sudan, there was a power-sharing agreement between kind of another, many people refer to them as a paramilitary, but really they were a bit more integrated into the security apparatus of the state, and that's the Rapid Support Forces. So, three years ago now, in April 2023, we saw this sort of power-sharing arrangement break down. And so, unlike what

• 34:47Speaker 04

  we see in other conflicts where it's very, it's very different, there's a big power gap between the military forces of the country and, you know, a much smaller rebel group that are kind of relying on more insurgent-style tactics, kind of one-sided combats, just kind of moving into an area quickly and then retreating. With the Sudanese conflicts, we have two sides that each have their own tactical advantages, but are very much kind of two parts of the former, say, former military forces, but former security apparatus within the country.

• 35:34Speaker 05

  Basically, it's like parallel governments?

• 35:38Speaker 04

  Well, just in the, in the last year, we have seen both sides set up parallel governments. So both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces now have their own kind of parallel administrations within the country.

• 36:00Speaker 05

  Um, okay. So I, again, I was all over this Africa overview map. So, um, I remember, I'm an old guy, so when I was in the Marine Corps, um, you know, in the nineties, uh, a big thing besides Somalia where I was was like Liberia, uh, Western Africa, things like that. Um, I'm, I'm not gonna use the word quiet, but how are things in Western Africa? Are they as bad or is it quieter? If that's a word, you know?

• 36:33Speaker 04

  Yeah, I would say as we kind of move down, you know, many of those states that were formerly in conflict, uh, in conflict, um, you mentioned Liberia, Sierra Leone, um, these states that were very turbulent in the, in the nineties, um, they in general are much, uh, I mean, levels of violence have definitely decreased, uh, would be considered peaceful, uh, states at this point, you know? Obviously at different levels of development, we've seen, uh, different kind of regime

• 37:12Speaker 04

  changes or democratic, um, elections, uh, the ability for these states to undergo kind of free and fair, um, democratic or, uh, political party changes. Um, but, uh, at the moment, the one that's probably most at risk is Benin. Um, they've been the most subject to spillover from the Sahel. So, um, for Benin, the northern parts of the country, um, have faced increasing presence of Genem. Uh, they have struggled militarily to repel that and to, um, kind of keep insurgents,

• 37:56Speaker 04

  um, at their, at their doorstep, um, Togo to some extent as well, um, and even less so in somewhere like Tautiwa. So. For many of the West African states, we we certainly don't see the conflict that we did um you know thirty years ago.

• 38:16Speaker 05

  Yeah, it's uh it's really wild for again, someone my age who served during that time because those were, you know, like I said, you have Somalia on one side and then it was like Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, all those places were, they were the hotspots. Um so it's uh it's re- refreshing. I mean, I I don't live there, but relatively speaking, it's nice to see that there is some peace coming to some of these regions, so. Um but now I'm gonna drag you uh as far south as we can go. Um do you have any uh insight on what's going on in South Africa?

• 38:53Speaker 04

  Uh I can't say I have uh too much recent research on on South Africa. You know, a few years ago, I did look into their election cycle. Two years ago now, uh just in terms of some of the local uh administrative areas that were struggling with with violence and some political party dynamics. But yeah, it's um been a couple of years now since I've focused on that area.

• 39:24Speaker 05

  Okay, okay. So um now we're gonna go get a little personal here. Um when you're when you're researching these places and maybe you were able to do this before and you're not now, are you able to get foot uh feet on the ground in these places? Like um you know, to be able to, you know, talk to the people on the ground?

• 39:46Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, for from my perspective, uh I've lived in the the Great Lakes region of Africa um for most of uh my life since two thousand twelve. Um so I've I've been here for uh you know, over ten years now and and I've been based in in Burundi for most of that, uh but travel lots uh in the region um with athletes. Uh we try to develop, you know, local networks uh of of monitors, um especially where we don't have organizations that are able to share security reports with us. So with that, you know, I've been able to, you know, recently traveled to places like the northern parts of Ghana

• 40:31Speaker 04

  or uh over to Benin uh.

• 40:36Speaker 04

  You know, the list kind of goes on and in places where we're actively working to set up these partnerships and develop security networks because I think, you know, there's always bias in your reporting and in the sources. But having kind of local monitors on the ground that aren't subject to kind of the news cycle that journalists are often subject to, the just kind of sharing reports that, again, subject to their own interpretation, but don't necessarily need to meet certain criteria to make it onto the front page of a website.

• 41:18Speaker 05

  I'll have one last question, unless do you have something?

• 41:22Speaker 03

  Um, I love to talk about what's going down in Uganda. I was reading a little bit about that and it seems like there's a bit of a

• 41:32Speaker 03

  for lack of a better term, shit show happening with the election and like the internet's been cut out and 2000 plus opposition people have been arrested and stuff like that. I would just love to get your rundown on what went down there.

• 41:48Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, I think it's a somewhat concerning trend in East Africa after Tanzania's turbulent election. Um, we saw some similar dynamics in Tanzania with really harsh crackdowns against protesters and opposition figures, internet shutdowns in a country that's traditionally regarded as as very stable and to some extent democratic. Uh, Uganda has had much fewer transitions of power. Museveni has been in power for a very long time. He's going on his, now on his seventh term in office.

• 42:30Speaker 04

  So, uh, you know, with that, uh, we did see pretty fierce repression of especially the, uh, the opposition, um, um, there, the kind of tactics that we saw the most were, uh, police forces going into, uh, campaign rallies and firing tear gas and dispersing, uh, the political opposition from gathering. So I think that was, you know, interesting where it wasn't necessarily, um, going in and disrupting protests, but even keeping opposition parties from being able to meet and, uh, share kind of whatever their party

• 43:11Speaker 04

  narrative was, but, um, this was a tactic. And then two, um, that happened, uh, across over twenty-two districts of the country. So, uh, for me, I think it really spoke to the popularity of bobby wine across the country, you know, it wasn't confined to a single kind of urban hub. Uh, it was very, uh, widespread. Um, and also the, you know, the ruling party's reach, uh, to stop campaigns even from happening in rural places.

• 43:45Speaker 05

  Are there any, uh, other areas of the continent that we have not touched on that you think that the public should know about?

• 43:56Speaker 04

  Well, I mean, like I said, I'm based in the, in the Great Lakes. So I think, um, you know, the M twenty-three, uh, rebellion has certainly upended, um, quite a lot of dynamics in the region. The U S is actively involved in peace negotiations between D R C and Rwanda, um, but Burundi is also, you know, deployed across the border. Uh, Ugandan troops are deployed across the border. So it is very much, uh, regional conflicts with regional implications. Uh, and then, uh, we didn't touch too much on the Islamic State's presence in Mozambique, which continues to threaten, uh, the northern parts of the country there.

• 44:45Speaker 04

  With the Great Lakes is that Rwanda has deployed troops to northern parts of Mozambique in order to defend against Islamic State's Mozambique. So with that, it's levels of violence in Mozambique are not as high as they were a few years ago, but ISM is a persistent threat.

• 45:08Speaker 05

  Yeah, again, Mozambique, the name, it's like brings back like 80s memories for me. You know, because it's like, these things are like hotspots, they're in the news and then they just kinda, you don't hear anything and now they pop up again. So it's like, you know, these are probably places that some people have never heard in their life because they're so young. Um, but I definitely remember the, uh, the stories coming out of there. But so that segues into a last question for me, unless D you've got something else. Um, so this is kind of a broad question and it's your opinion on it. I recently watched a a video, I cannot remember the name of the historian, but he basically delved into the question of why

• 45:52Speaker 05

  the Africa, the continent itself, and as well as these conflicts does not make the level, reach the level of media coverage that say Ukraine or, um, you know, what's happening with Greenland do. And he said that it's not, in his opinion, it's it's not as simple as people make it. Some people will say it's racism. Some people will say it's economics. Some people will say it's, uh, um, the rampant, their view of rampant corruption, things like that. Um, so in your opinion, why are these things underreported? Which is why I brought you on? Because I believe it's underreported as well.

• 46:30Speaker 04

  Yeah, I do think that conflicts are underreported here. Um, part of that, uh, probably comes from, you know, the very ground, uh, level where journalists often do struggle with one, adequate funding, and then two, uh, functioning, uh, within many rather repressive, uh, media environments. So I think having local-based, uh, journalists.

• 46:58Speaker 04

  It's something that's rather difficult. Uh, we even see large, uh, media organizations. I'm not going to throw any under the bus, but I work with them often. They have like one or two people, uh, for an entire continent. Uh, so part of the coverage issue, uh, is also, uh, that, you know, these big organizations, uh, don't have, you know, adequate number of journalists to pick up on these stories. So, you know, there's, there's probably the journalistic side. Um, probably a lack of understanding as well. You know, even coming back to that last point on Mozambique. I mean, most people might not, uh, be aware of the Islamic State's influence there,

• 47:43Speaker 04

  nor the fact that they're disrupting one of the world's biggest supplies of liquid natural gas. And, uh, in, have they disrupted for years the ability for a big French, uh, company, Total, uh, to extract from that LNG, uh, project? So, uh, I think that is, is rather big news. Um, it's as much of an economic resource as we see with the war in Ukraine, but, um, yeah, no, certainly not reported on.

• 48:13Jack Murphy?

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• 50:17Speaker 05

  Anything else, Steve? I can't hear you. Hey, you're still...

• 50:20Speaker 03

  Apologies, guys. My computer's on the fritz. No, this is incredible. I mean, Lad, we need to have you back as...

• 50:26Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 50:27Speaker 03

  Again. And like, really deep dive, maybe into like singular issues and stuff like that, because you know, we could be here for ten hours talking about what's going on. You know, it's a massive continent. I want to remind everybody to go and check out Lad. I want to have links in the description for everything. Lad is the A C L E D's Africa Senior Analyst. He knows what's going on. So, and I can't, I'm gonna check out that, that interactive map you mentioned, Jason. That sounds pretty cool. You know, you're doing stuff that people need to hear, I think, not just regionally, but internationally, and I think it's important what you're doing. And I hope you continue to do it, man, because we need experts like you.

• 51:12Speaker 03

  Educating, you know, like the layman like me who has a passing interest and stuff like that, who wants to know more. Uh, I think being able to communicate it in a way that you do is extremely important. So I really appreciate you coming on.

• 51:28Speaker 04

  Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. And I think with the, the, you know, US strikes in Nigeria coming full circle to that point, uh, I think it just highlights, you know, the, the desperate need that we have to understand the, the drivers of conflict, who's carrying it out.

• 51:48Speaker 04

  Is specifically taking place. So, uh, yeah, thanks for, thanks for having me on.

• 51:54Speaker 03

  One last thing, which is like, I was just thinking about it when you guys were talking about it, like, uh, how the UAE and Saudi and Qatar are all involved, right? I- in different places on the continent. It really like kind of echoes how Syria was, where it's like, there are all these like different, uh, you know, countries and organizations that are fighting each other. Some hate each other, but some hate this one a little bit more. So like they're working together. It's like this incredibly complicated thing that, uh, you know, it's, it's just, it's kind of mind boggling how unbelievably complicated this is. Like Syria too, like, most people can't tell you like exactly what went down

• 52:36Speaker 03

  during the Syrian civil war, like whose side was, you know, Turkey hates the Kurds, but we like the Kurds. And it's like, it's just absolutely mind numbing. Uh, so I really appreciate bringing a little bit of clarity to it.

• 52:49Jack Murphy?

  Hey guys, I want to tell all of you today about a new newsletter that we're launching that encompasses both the Team House podcast, the Eyes On podcast, and the High Side news outlet, which I run with Sean Naylor. Uh, the newsletter is going to be once a week. It's going to come into your inbox and you're going to get the most current podcasts on Eyes On and the Team House and whatever's topical or current on the high side. So it's another way for us to get the information out to you as social media algorithms are pretty iffy and you never really know what you're going to get. Um, so this is a once a week email. It'll slide into your inbox and it will have, you know, the greatest hits of that week. It's really good. Checking it out.

• 53:33Jack Murphy?

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• 59:29Jack Murphy?

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• 1:09:00Jack Murphy?

  Ready to feel energized and in control again? At Orderly Meds, we have helped thousands just like you take charge of their health with a GLP-1. If you've tried dieting, exercising, and relying on willpower and nothing seems to stick, then it might be time to talk to a licensed provider about your options. That's what Orderly Meds is for. This fall, choose healthier habits for yourself with a visit to orderlymeds.com. You don't need to visit with a physician in person to become eligible. Orderly Meds has a simple, virtual process. Connect with licensed medical professionals who can determine whether a GLP-1 treatment may be appropriate for you wherever you are. Get started from the comfort of home online. Change your habits and consider a new approach to feeling your best.

• 1:09:43Jack Murphy?

  Visit orderlymeds.com to learn more. That's orderlymeds.com. Orderlymeds.com. Gain confidence and choose better habits this fall. Compounded medications are not FDA-approved. Eligibility required and determined by a licensed provider. Individual results may vary. See website for details.

• 1:10:01Speaker 07

  Hanging out at the pool is great. Relaxing and playing Vegas-style games on my phone at the same time. Drinking one hand and a blackjack in the other. It's all at Spinquest. Over 1,000 games, including your favorite slots and table games. Be cool with this summer special. New players get $30 coin packs for 10 at spinquest.com.

• 1:10:23Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.

• 1:10:30Speaker 02

  OnDeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A+ by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star TrustPilot reviews, OnDeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at ondeck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDeck or Celtic Bank. OnDeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

• 1:10:58Jack Murphy?

  Ready to feel energized and in control again? At Orderly Med's, we have helped thousands just like you take charge of their health with a GLP-1. If you've tried dieting, exercising, and relying on willpower and nothing seems to stick, then it might be time to talk to a licensed provider about your options. That's what Orderly Med's is for. This fall, choose healthier habits for yourself with a visit to orderlymeds.com. You don't need to visit with a physician in person to become eligible. Orderly Med's has a simple virtual process. Connect with licensed medical professionals who can determine whether a GLP-1 treatment may be appropriate for you wherever you are. Get started from the comfort of home online. Change your habits and consider a new approach to feeling your best.

• 1:11:41Jack Murphy?

  Visit orderlymeds.com to learn more. That's orderlymeds.com. OrderlyMed's.com. Gain confidence and choose better habits this fall. Compounded medications are not FDA-approved. Eligibility required and determined by a licensed provider. Individual results may vary. See website for details.

• 1:11:58Speaker 07

  You know what? It sucks to be bored. But when I get on my phone and play real casino games on spinquest.com, the time flies by. That two-hour wait at the DMV seems like 10 minutes. Play your favorite spots, live blackjack, live craps, with a live dealer. New players, $30 coin packs are on sale for $10. Play spinquest.com and you'll never be bored again.

• 1:12:22Speaker 01

  Spinquest is a free-to-play social casino. Void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.

• 1:12:28Speaker 00

  Network freedom and flexibility, that's what you want in a healthcare plan. With a Humana Medicare Advantage PPO plan, you can see any doctor in the country who accepts Medicare, including specialists. No referrals, no kidding. Learn more at gethumana.com. See any doctor who accepts Medicare and is willing to bill Humana. Humana PPOs may not be available in all areas. Benefits and costs share may vary. Humana is a Medicare Advantage PPO organization with a Medicare contract. Enrollment in any Humana plan depends on contract renewal.