NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West With Zach Lowe and Joe House

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Zach and Joe House for Part 1 of the annual Over/Unders pod, as they run through the win totals for every team in the Western Conference! Intro: (00:00) Thunder (04:00) Nuggets (12:10) Timberwolves (29:15) Trail Blazers (35:35) Jazz (43:25) Rockets (52:10) Spurs (01:00:56) Mavericks (01:10:55) Grizzlies (01:19:00) Pelicans (01:25:52) Clippers (01:34:40) Lakers (01:42:09) Warriors (01:51:21) Kings (02:00:25) Suns (02:06:45) Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Zach Lowe and Joe House Producers: Chris Wohlers, Ronak Nair, Eduardo Ocampo, and Chia Hao Tat The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Carhartt. We spend a lot of time talking about football, the players, the coaches, the big plays, but there's a whole other team we rarely think about, the people who make the game possible, the workers building stadiums, paving parking lots, growing the grass, welding the goalposts, even making the footballs. They're committed to their craft and they're doing the work long before kickoff. Carhartt is proud to outfit those crews. So next time you're watching a game, take a second to appreciate the people behind it. Learn more at carhartt.com/jointhetrades.

• 0:30Speaker 01

  I'm pro football Hall of Famer Brian Dawkins, and I lived for a long time with something I did not know the name of, major depressive disorder. I carried sadness and anger because I thought I could handle it alone, but I couldn't. Now I want to make sure others know that that support is out there. If you're experiencing similar symptoms, talk to a healthcare professional. Visit mddallies.com to watch my story.

• 0:56Speaker 02

  Paid partnership with Johnson & Johnson. Brian Dawkins has not prescribed Caplyta lumateperone.

• 1:08Speaker 03

  I needed more from my antidepressant, so my doctor added Caplyta lumateperone, proven to provide greater relief from depression symptoms than an antidepressant alone, building on my progress without starting over. Caplyta is for adults with major depressive disorder when used with an antidepressant and is available by prescription only. Individual results may vary. In clinical trials, weight gain was not common.

• 1:28Speaker 02

  Elderly dementia patients have increased risk of death or stroke. Caplyta is not approved for dementia-related psychosis. Call your doctor about new or sudden mood changes, behaviors, or suicidal thoughts right away. Antidepressants may increase these risks. Report fever, confusion, stiff muscles, which may be life-threatening, or uncontrolled muscle movements, which may be permanent. High cholesterol and weight gain may occur, as can high blood sugar, which may be fatal. Monitoring is recommended. Common side effects are sleepiness, dizziness, nausea, dry mouth, feeling tired, and diarrhea. These aren't all the side effects.

• 1:54Speaker 03

  Ask your doctor about Caplyta. Learn more at caplyta.com or call 888-252-4824.

• 2:00Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network, where we put up a new episode of the Rewatchables on Monday night. We did sneakers. As part of Robert Redford Month, we have one more Redford movie coming next week. We're gonna do a quiz show and then, and I think we have to do a horror movie for the last week of October. So I think one more Redford Month movie and then a horror movie. Prestige TV Podcast Task, episode six, that is up now with me and Joanna Robinson breaking it down. The season finale is on Sunday. We had a little announcement with The Ringer. We are gonna be in January moving some of our podcasts. They're still gonna be on Spotify. They're still gonna be on all platforms. There's still gonna be a video podcast on Spotify,

• 2:44Bill Simmons?

  but we are also going to be moving the video to Netflix as part of their experiment slash initiative with video podcasts. So very excited about that. This podcast will eventually be able to be watched on Netflix as well as the rewatchables and a bunch of other Ringer stuff. And it's, we announced the first wave. Hopefully there's more to come and we're very excited to, to team up with that. There's gonna be some, some big upgrades all the way around from a production standpoint. You've already seen some of them. So very excited about that. Very excited for this over unders podcast we're about to do. We've done this every year. I think it's year 16. Joe House has been a staple since we've done it. Zach Lowe is gonna join us this year. This is part one. We're doing the West. We

• 3:27Bill Simmons?

  get guests, the over unders. They do win totals. FanDuel has them. Any, any place where you bet, but we love FanDuel. Win totals for the season for each team and we go over or we go under and we talk about every team and we have some laughs. We have some fun and it's about to happen. We're gonna take a break. Pearl Jam and then the West over unders is next. This is the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you wanna jump in live your way. So you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast. It's easy to use. And best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts recently. Guess what I did? Use Fanduel.

• 4:11Bill Simmons?

  Super fun. Download the Fanduel app or go to fanduel.com/BS to get started. Must be 21 plus, present in select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky and Wyoming. Game problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-79777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.

• 4:56Bill Simmons?

  All right, the time is here. NBA over unders. Joe House is here. We first did this on the BS Report on ESPN in 2010.

• 5:06Speaker 04

  Wow.

• 5:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 5:07Speaker 04

  15 years.

• 5:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, somebody on YouTube has all the old BS Report podcasts. 2010, so that would make it. I'm bad at math.

• 5:14Speaker 04

  15.

• 5:15Bill Simmons?

  This is our 15.

• 5:16Speaker 04

  If we're inclusive, it's 16.

• 5:18Bill Simmons?

  So it's our 16.

• 5:19Speaker 04

  This is why we have Zach Lowe.

• 5:20Bill Simmons?

  Zach Lowe is here. Never has been on the over unders pod. In fact, you and Joe House have never done a podcast.

• 5:25Speaker 04

  Is that true? We're doing it. Amazing.

• 5:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 5:28Speaker 04

  I'm doing it. I have one, one goal. I told Zach already. I want him to say something bad about somebody. That's my goal for this podcast, to get Zach Lowe to say something bad about somebody.

• 5:37Bill Simmons?

  Zach looks tan, rested.

• 5:39Speaker 04

  I don't know, but yeah.

• 5:40Bill Simmons?

  Ready.

• 5:41Speaker 04

  I'm ready to go. I'm excited.

• 5:43Bill Simmons?

  I, dare I say, one of the most fun over under seasons we've ever had. There's so much flux. There's so many teams you could make a case for either way, just being either way better than people think or way worse. And yet, we're going to start with the West. This is part one. And we're going to start with the Oklahoma City Thunder, who won the title last year, Zach. And are somehow not that exciting to talk about. I just think they're going to be awesome again, and I don't really have a lot of Thunder takes. Like, why wouldn't they be awesome again? What would be the case against it?

• 6:14Speaker 04

  Well, they're gonna be awesome. The, the, there's no question about that. They have some injuries. Jalen Williams, how quickly is he gonna be ready to start the season? Good Jalen Williams. Topich had some kind of surgery. Kenrich Williams.

• 6:25Bill Simmons?

  It wasn't some kind of surgery. There was some testicular.

• 6:29Speaker 04

  I don't want to get into the details.

• 6:30Bill Simmons?

  Did you research the testicular Topich surgery?

• 6:32Speaker 04

  I did not. I felt like it was okay.

• 6:33Bill Simmons?

  I did not either.

• 6:34Speaker 04

  It was, I just saw the timetable, but it, there's no question they're gonna be awesome. They're the favorites to win the title. The question is 62 and a half. It's a pretty giant number.

• 6:43Bill Simmons?

  62 and a half wins, House. Minus 340 for the division, plus 130 for the conference, and plus 210 for the title. Minus 210 for the one seed on Fanduel, if you're interested in that one. House, only 11 teams, I think in the, in the last 30 years or something, have been over 60 wins for an over/under. And I think it's 8 and 3 where it's been under. Most recently was the Warriors of 2019. We were dumbfounded by this last night. Over/under of 67 and a half for them. That was the year Durant got hurt. But, um, did you think this was too high?

• 7:22Speaker 04

  It's just a tad too high, and it's just because of the, the math aspect of it. It's what you just described. It's what, we know what history tells us about teams that, that come in having won the title. Every team in the league circles that game like, hey, Oklahoma City's in town. Let's give a, a good effort here.

• 7:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 7:40Speaker 04

  Let's see how we match up against the, the champs. Uh, and so it's, I don't feel like it's disrespectful to, to say that they win 61 or 62 games. It's still an awesome season. They're still an awesome team. They should be the one seed. They should be, they should win the conference. Um, but I, I am not gonna bite down too hard on this one.

• 8:00Bill Simmons?

  They would have to go six wins worse to go under. Cause they were 68 and 14 last year. Uh, they had a plus 12, 7.7, or plus 12.7 net last year.

• 8:12Speaker 04

  It's the best in the history of the NBA.

• 8:14Bill Simmons?

  I don't know why that would be considerably worse.

• 8:18Bill Simmons?

  I just don't see how they're not a mid 60s team unless there's some sort of major injury, but we could say that about any good team.

• 8:25Speaker 05

  Their expected wins last year were 69, according to Cleaning the Glass. So you have to like, do the thing where it's like, how many did you win? Were you lucky? Were you unlucky? They're like a flat out, basically a 70 win team.

• 8:35Bill Simmons?

  We'll be talking about that during the Detroit section in part two.

• 8:38Speaker 05

  Wow, just flashing all the way ahead.

• 8:40Bill Simmons?

  Wow, just, you know, 46 wins, but eh, was it?

• 8:44Speaker 05

  Is this the part where I say what I think is gonna happen? Like, I don't, you have the cadence for this over/under thing, you know, you're going under, it sounds like.

• 8:51Bill Simmons?

  Let me set you up.

• 8:52Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 8:52Bill Simmons?

  In 2002, they won 24. In 2023, they won 40. In 2024, 57. And in 2025, 68. So if you do the math, they're gonna win 77 games this year by those. So they're 77 and 5 is how it's gonna go. I'm going over. What are you doing?

• 9:12Speaker 05

  I'm going aggressively over.

• 9:13Bill Simmons?

  Oh, aggressively over?

• 9:15Speaker 05

  I, I.

• 9:16Bill Simmons?

  Didn't even know that was an option. I just thought we were doing overs.

• 9:18Speaker 05

  Aggressively over. I just think they're so good and so deep and their defense is so much better than everybody else's that they just like, how many games are they gonna be underdogs in the entire year? Like, on the road against Denver?

• 9:33Bill Simmons?

  Well, the other thing is they can sit dudes and it doesn't matter. It's like, oh, we'll just put this guy in instead. It'll be fun.

• 9:38Speaker 05

  And they seem like the kind of team, but first of all, they won 68 with Chet missing half the season, Hartenstein missing almost half the season. Maybe they suffered some other injuries this year. I just think they walk into every game with a defense. It's like, we can play a shitty offensive game and still win and the floor is so high. And they do strike me as a team that is gonna like what you said. Like, oh, you, you're gonna give us your best shot? Come at us. We're young. We're not just like old, creaky champion. Actually, we kind of like being the hunted. We like kicking the shit out of everybody on defense.

• 10:14Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 10:15Speaker 05

  We want history. Like, I think it's, I think 70 wins is in play if they're healthy.

• 10:20Bill Simmons?

  So the case for this house would be the 1992 Bulls? Who went 67 and 50 in the year after they won the title were young like this team, had guys that were still ascending, had Pippen going up a level, which you can make the case, maybe Jalen Williams or Chet or both this year.

• 10:37Speaker 05

  Chet, big time.

• 10:39Bill Simmons?

  And I'm with you. I actually think, I think they have a chance to be better. And the reason I mention this is you can bet on this house if you think the OKC Thunder can win 70 games. What do you think the odds are on Fandel?

• 10:52Speaker 04

  Probably not great. You know what I mean? Like probably three to one, something like that.

• 10:56Speaker 05

  I was gonna go longer than that.

• 10:58Bill Simmons?

  How about plus 680?

• 10:59Speaker 04

  Oh, wow. Now that you have my attention.

• 11:03Speaker 05

  I was gonna say 12 to one or something like that.

• 11:07Bill Simmons?

  Could they win 70 games?

• 11:08Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 11:08Bill Simmons?

  Has not happened a lot. I think it's, I think the plus 680 I thought was high.

• 11:13Speaker 04

  That, out of all the bets that we've talked about so far, by, that, that's, that's the one that's got my attention.

• 11:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 11:18Speaker 04

  Odds wise.

• 11:18Bill Simmons?

  So you're, are you over or under?

• 11:20Speaker 04

  I'm over now.

• 11:20Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 11:21Speaker 04

  Wow, just like that.

• 11:22Bill Simmons?

  Well, no, he just had to be talked into.

• 11:24Speaker 04

  Because 63 is still over.

• 11:26Speaker 05

  I was.

• 11:27Speaker 04

  And that's five years worse than last year.

• 11:28Speaker 05

  I was stunned by how little I thought about a number this big. It was like over 60, like, what do I feel bad? If they win 61 games, I still feel good. 60 games are still awesome. I'm going over.

• 11:39Speaker 04

  Yeah, 63.

• 11:40Bill Simmons?

  One other thing with these guys, some assets to trade if they wanted to get frisky, right? They have, uh, all the draft picks, which aren't quite as good as they felt like they were three years ago. They're still all right. They have like some, some Philly stuff. They have some Utah stuff that's protected. They have some swap stuff with the Clippers and Houston. They have some Denver picks that I'm not too excited about because they have Jokic. They have a 2028 swap with Dallas that was way more exciting before Dallas with 1.8% odds won the Cooper Flag Lottery.

• 12:13Speaker 04

  Let's not talk about.

• 12:14Bill Simmons?

  But they have stuff they can just be like, here's four firsts. We want to upgrade this spot and do it.

• 12:20Bill Simmons?

  I wanted to do one question for each team beyond just the over under. Is SGA the most untradeable guy in the league for you right now?

• 12:28Bill Simmons?

  How many people would you put over him? We're doing trade value rankings. Cause I had him three when I did my list in January. I had Jokic ahead of him and I had Wemby.

• 12:39Bill Simmons?

  SGA is gonna be 20, he's 27 years old. He is MVP, finals MVP. He's 31, six and five, the last three seasons. And I wrote down, he's like independent movie Kobe, basically. He's Kobe, but the, it's a lower budget with the director who did For Scale and got a bunch of actors. And they made it for 2 million and took it right to Cannes.

• 13:01Speaker 04

  Yeah, he's not a blockbuster.

• 13:02Bill Simmons?

  Like he even shaded this GQ interview, like cover story and had quotes it in. It's, and it's like, whoa, Shay being interviewed. Like he's just like, we don't know anything about him and I think he likes it that way.

• 13:15Speaker 05

  No, I mean, look, I, I'm, it's tempting to say Shay, Wemby and Jokic are completely untradeable. And yet we are eight months removed from Luka Doncic getting traded like inexplicably to the Lakers. But I, I think the, I think it's just Wemby. Like if you're gonna rank them all, I think Wemby has to be the number one most untradeable.

• 13:31Bill Simmons?

  Would you put him over Jokic?

• 13:32Speaker 04

  Wow, that's great.

• 13:33Bill Simmons?

  I think Wemby's one.

• 13:34Speaker 05

  He's so young.

• 13:36Bill Simmons?

  Jokic versus Shay is a really good argument now, cause Jokic is now in his 30s. Right? So you're getting basically three extra apex years from, from Shay. Although maybe with the way Jokic moves, he could just play until he's 55. It's possible.

• 13:51Speaker 04

  His body looks like he's, he's gonna be able to withstand it.

• 13:54Bill Simmons?

  I, I still have Joker and Wemby over him. Wemby one, Joker two. I think Wemby's one now. Especially after the preseason game we watched last night.

• 14:03Speaker 04

  Good God.

• 14:03Bill Simmons?

  It was like, I think Wemby is now our number one. Okay, we're all over for OKC. Next one, ironically, the Denver Nuggets. Their over under is 53 and a half. They are plus 470 for the conference, plus 750 for the title, 6-1 to be our one seed. And unlike OKC, which basically returned the same team, they dumped Porter and Saric and Russell Westbrook. Good joke on the internets this week about Russell Westbrook might change his name to Antetokounmpo to see if he can get signed by a team. Mean, funny, it really checked all my boxes.

• 14:38Speaker 05

  It's mean to everybody. It's mean to everybody involved.

• 14:41Bill Simmons?

  Everybody's insulted. Multiple people get insulted with that joke. They added Cam Johnson, huge fan. Bruce Brown, who really peaked with those guys and then was adrift for a couple of years, now back. Jonas Valančiūnas, who is a weird agent situation over the summer, unclear if he wanted to put Denver or not, but he's there. And then Tim Hardaway Jr. plus Holmes is coming back. This is the deepest bench they've ever had. Zach, this is the best Nuggets team I think Jokic has ever had. Is that fair to say?

• 15:13Speaker 05

  It's in play. It could be the best regular season team they've ever had, for sure.

• 15:17Bill Simmons?

  What would be another one for you?

• 15:19Speaker 05

  The year they won the title would be, you know, with Bruce Brown and KCP and other guys who Jeff Green was still like a viable player.

• 15:27Bill Simmons?

  So they went seven deep that year?

• 15:29Speaker 05

  Uh, probably a little deeper than that.

• 15:32Bill Simmons?

  Like seven and a half?

• 15:33Speaker 05

  Probably a little deeper than that. Yeah, this is on, this is on par or better than that as a regular season team. I just, I'm, we'll see how the young guys develop. Like I've always liked Strather, but it's never really happened. I like Peyton Watson, can he make enough threes? It's like some of the bench young guys hit, like Pickett is interesting. It's sort of like an Andre Miller clone, but not nearly as good, but like the big bulky point guard guy.

• 15:57Bill Simmons?

  Interesting, like it's interesting to watch somebody try to walk across, like traffic, interesting or interesting?

• 16:03Speaker 05

  One of these young guys is going to pop a little bit at some point. How much does Bruce Brown, like how much of the Bruce Brown slump was just like, I miss, I just, I'm longing for Jokic. I miss Jokic. I made a mistake or I didn't make a mistake, I got paid, but.

• 16:17Speaker 04

  But yeah, it's on the table. This is the deepest and best regular season Nuggets team.

• 16:21Bill Simmons?

  What I like about this team, House, they can bring in dudes that aren't as good as their starters, but can replicate a lot of stuff that those guys, like when Valon Shunis comes in, you can kind of run offense through him for five minutes. You had him in Washington. Bruce Brown comes in, he can kind of pretend to be Aaron Gordon for a couple of minutes. Hardaway can come in, he can kind of pretend to be Cam Johnson for a couple of minutes. The, the issue I had with them the last couple of years is the guys they were bringing in the bench, it's almost like an NFL team where it's like, here's Lamar Jackson, Jackson's backup, a guy who's a completely different quarterback than him. And it's like, why don't you just have a running quarterback? Anyway, what do you think of the Nuggets?

• 17:01Speaker 04

  I absolutely adore them. I'm so happy for the Joker to have this cast at this moment, after what we all saw the last couple of years, them being quality wise as good as any team in the league, them being able to stand up in a series to any team in the league. And then they just get to that threshold moment and they just didn't have the depth. They didn't have the depth against Minnesota.

• 17:25Bill Simmons?

  And still almost won.

• 17:26Speaker 04

  That's right. Yes, this is the thing. So I absolutely, this, we've been clamoring for this for how long now? Years, right? You know who else was clamoring for it? Mike effing Malone, who gets to watch it on television this season.

• 17:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 17:41Speaker 04

  Because him and Calvin Booth couldn't get on the same page, right, Zach?

• 17:43Speaker 05

  Yeah. So they cleared out the, the cloud of dysfunction, those hanging over the organization. David Adelman is the new coach. Everyone seems to like him. He's doing creative stuff in the preseason. They're playing zone, they're playing the centers together.

• 17:55Bill Simmons?

  Some people are calling him Dave.

• 17:56Speaker 05

  Is that on the table?

• 17:57Bill Simmons?

  They say he's like, he's David Adelman, but now they're so comfortable with him. There's a couple of days.

• 18:02Speaker 04

  He's Dave to me.

• 18:02Speaker 05

  He's doing the opposite of Malone, who went from Mike Malone to Michael Malone. He's going long to short. It's a culture shift.

• 18:09Bill Simmons?

  Dave Adelman.

• 18:10Speaker 04

  All across the board for Denver.

• 18:11Bill Simmons?

  Maybe like one or two Davies.

• 18:13Speaker 05

  I don't know, Dave, you can't go Davy.

• 18:15Speaker 04

  Davy, Davy, quick, quick question, Davy, on the zone defense, you ready in the third quarter?

• 18:20Bill Simmons?

  Were you on a side in the cloud of dysfunction or were you just?

• 18:23Speaker 04

  I was on the side of like, I can't believe you two.

• 18:28Speaker 05

  I can't believe it got this bad. Like the team is good. They won a title. How does it get this bad? Why did it get this bad? Valanciunas is interesting because like he's become a journeyman. Now he's been all over the Western Conference and a little bit in Washington, Toronto, obviously. And I just think like when Jokic would go out of games, they would have just no identity. It was like if Jamal Murray doesn't make crazy step back 20 footers, we're just not going to score. He's not

• 18:55Bill Simmons?

  You were holding on for your life for five minutes.

• 18:57Speaker 05

  JV is at least like, I can dump it to him in the post and kill time and feel like I'm not just desperately grasping at straws to score points.

• 19:06Speaker 04

  I was blown away by the short stint that he enjoyed in Washington. I got lucky enough to sit low enough at a couple of games in Washington. Tickets were available and you could hear him talking and the leadership role that he played with those kids. That dude just knows how to play effing basketball. He gets to the right spot. He knows where everybody's supposed to be. Tells them, go, go, move, whatever. And he is a big boy. That's a big boy right there.

• 19:33Bill Simmons?

  Well, also like what fun situation has he been in? Like he was on that weird New Orleans team. He was on Washington. He was in Sacramento. Like, like this is like the perfect team for him. Just come in, we'll run everything through you for six minutes a half. And then if Jokic gets in foul trouble, we actually have an option of a professional basketball.

• 19:50Speaker 05

  Can I just state some, some, some dings to the Denver?

• 19:54Bill Simmons?

  I'm excited for Skeptic Zach on the 53 and a half. No, the 53 and a half is a little high for Zach.

• 19:59Speaker 05

  The Aaron Gordon leg stuff seems to come and go. Looks good in the preseason. Cam Johnson's missed a lot of games over the last couple of years.

• 20:08Bill Simmons?

  I wouldn't say he's Cal Ripken Jr.

• 20:10Speaker 05

  I think their rebounding will take a little bit of a hit without MPJ. That was like one of the things he did consistently pretty well for them. Jamal Murray, all the camp reports are very exciting. He's in, you know, better condition and mentality than you. He always starts slow, right? That's one of the reasons the Nuggets tend to not blow away their win total over under. So those are like the dings, I think. Like do these bench veterans whose names sound good? Like Bruce Brown, dawg, he did stuff for Denver. Tim Hardaway Jr. Do they actually help the team? Or is their name recognition allowing their value? And just like win totals from the last You know, X Denver seasons, 46, 47, 48, 53, 57, 50.

• 20:53Speaker 05

  They just don't have a track record as like a blow away regular season team. Playoffs, different story. Absolutely terrifying with the best player on the planet and a team that makes sense. Regular season, they're not like blowing you away.

• 21:07Bill Simmons?

  The 57 would be the doppelganger, I think, for this season, for me. The last year, the Murray thing was so weird, those first six weeks. How's, I have a question for you because you've shared season tickets with people before.

• 21:20Speaker 05

  I have.

• 21:21Bill Simmons?

  And when you share season tickets with people, you do a draft where you send your list and like, here's my, here's my 20 and then you do like, somebody gets first pick and you get it. If I was doing this with my season tickets, Denver would be my first pick.

• 21:36Speaker 05

  Oh, wow.

• 21:36Bill Simmons?

  I would want to see them over every other team in the league. Would they be your first pick?

• 21:40Speaker 05

  No, because I need to see Wemby. I haven't seen Wemby yet in person. I need to see Wemby.

• 21:43Bill Simmons?

  So that would have been my second pick.

• 21:45Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 21:45Bill Simmons?

  What would be your first pick? Fortunately for you, you can go to MSG, see any game you want, but with Denver.

• 21:51Speaker 05

  The Barclay Center, just you just, you're not even considering that.

• 21:55Bill Simmons?

  I just thought they had WNBA games. They have an NBA team?

• 21:59Speaker 05

  Wow.

• 22:00Bill Simmons?

  What's it called?

• 22:01Speaker 05

  Poor Jordy. It has the worst team name in the NBA, the Nets.

• 22:04Bill Simmons?

  I thought that was where the Liberty played.

• 22:06Speaker 05

  In any case.

• 22:07Bill Simmons?

  And they have pizza.

• 22:08Speaker 05

  I think, I think Wemby is now ascended to like, I gotta see this guy again and again. But, but to your point, Jokic, like, you know, I go to Toronto every year for the holidays where my wife's parents live. The Raptors have a murderers row schedule right after Christmas, including Denver at Toronto on like New Year's Eve. And I've told my wife and my family, like, A, we're staying through New Year's Eve, so I'm going to that game. And B, we're going to all go to the game together because you need to watch this dude play in person and just ravage the poor Raptors. So it's still, it's still a hot ticket.

• 22:42Bill Simmons?

  Can I make the Joker case? Because you're doing this draft in September.

• 22:48Bill Simmons?

  Jokic is playing, probably 97% certainty when he's in your town.

• 22:53Speaker 05

  I got a story.

• 22:54Bill Simmons?

  Wemby, I have no idea.

• 22:56Speaker 05

  We're gonna knock on wood.

• 22:57Bill Simmons?

  Joker plays. Joker's out there and you know you're gonna see him. And especially if it's a bigger city, he shows up. Unlike say a Joel Embiid in Denver. Like if you're doing the season ticket draft, you live in Denver and Embiid goes 30th because he hasn't played at Denver in a decade. I would have Joker first, Wemby second.

• 23:16Speaker 05

  Can I tell you, can I tell you a heartbreaker for me? So I got laid off from ESPN last year.

• 23:21Bill Simmons?

  What?

• 23:21Speaker 05

  You know, yeah.

• 23:22Bill Simmons?

  When did that happen?

• 23:23Speaker 05

  Zach Lowe?

• 23:24Bill Simmons?

  I thought you still worked there.

• 23:26Speaker 05

  Organized my wife, big mistake on my wife's part. It was like when I got home from LA, she was like, you know what Zach? carte blanche, take whatever trips you want to clear your head. And she said it in front of a dad friend of mine.

• 23:38Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 23:38Speaker 05

  So the planning began like, oh carte blanche. Seven dads from Connecticut descend on the deep south for a week. Starting in New Orleans, built around Nuggets, Pelicans.

• 23:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 23:51Speaker 05

  Cause I'm like, I'm telling you guys, this is like, this is a religious experience to watch this guy. We had great seats, like this is a religious experience to watch this guy in person. Here was the Nuggets starting lineup that night. Dario Saric, Michael Porter Jr., Peyton Watson, Jamal Murray, Christian Brown, Hunter Tyson got in the game.

• 24:10Bill Simmons?

  Hunter Tyson.

• 24:11Speaker 05

  Jokic, Jokic's wife gave birth.

• 24:13Bill Simmons?

  Oh, that seat has to be like a crazy event like that.

• 24:17Speaker 05

  Heartbreaker.

• 24:18Speaker 04

  You didn't do anything wrong.

• 24:19Speaker 05

  Heartbreaker. Found out on the flight down, news broke. I didn't know how to break it to them. It's like, now you guys are like Peyton Watson's kind of like, might block a shot, you know? Luckily they played the Lakers the next night and LeBron hit a game winning jumper.

• 24:32Bill Simmons?

  That was a good game.

• 24:33Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 24:35Bill Simmons?

  First, legacy, legacy shift, new segment on the over under spot. Can I talk about legacies? Is there a star player with a bigger legacy shift brewing on a pot on the stove than Jokic this year? Because if they win the title and he wins MVP again.

• 24:55Bill Simmons?

  I think he's indisputably one of the best 10 players ever. I think that has to be the outcome because at that point, his 2020s. I'm including, let's say he first team this year MVP, just hypothetical. His 2020s, just this decade, four first team, two second, four MVPs, two second place finishes, and probably should have won one of those two. And then he would be basically a triple double for the entire decade. Plus 29, 13, and eight in 80 playoff games, whatever it's going to end up being like. I just don't see how he's not on a top 10 list after that. He has to be.

• 25:32Speaker 05

  I think the more interesting question is like, if they never get a second title, is he still? Like his statistics are so, and individual honors are so crazy. And like, no one who has watched the Nuggets for the last, the years they haven't won the title, can make a case that it's Jokic's fault like at all. He shows up in every.

• 25:52Bill Simmons?

  It becomes a Jerry West situation. Like I had West in the top 10 when I did my book. He only won one title. I didn't hold that against him because they were in there.

• 25:59Speaker 05

  But if he gets a second one, the names he's next to, like next to immediately, not next to like, oh, three more years. It's next to immediately are like the holy pantheon of NBA players.

• 26:09Bill Simmons?

  He has to be with Bird and Magic at that point.

• 26:11Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 26:11Bill Simmons?

  He's next to them. And then we can start talking about top four.

• 26:14Speaker 04

  Yeah, we're all in agreement and, uh, you know, it's why the fist pumps, the huzzas, as this off season occurred and we saw this team finally giving that, you know, the assets, creating the, the multiplicity, uh, in terms of they're, they're built to withstand a little bit of time off for Gordon. They're built to withstand a little time off for Murray. They're built to, even if Joker wants a little break, I'm okay with JV getting some, some starter minutes there over the course of this long regular season. The answer is hell yes. I do wonder, I do want to have this legacy shift conversation. I have a guy in mind. Do we save it for, for when we get to that team?

• 26:52Bill Simmons?

  If you want to hit your legacy shift button, just pound it and tell us.

• 26:57Speaker 04

  Okay. Well, I'm, I'm sitting on mine for now.

• 26:59Bill Simmons?

  I had one other thing on Jokic because I thought of this when I was doing the research. And it's not a hundred percent fair because it's a decades thing. So somebody could peak, starting in the middle of a decade and then to like the first two years of the next decade. So you can't say whatever. The 60s were owned by Russell. The seventies were owned by Kareem, like those were indisputable. Eighties were Bird and Magic together. Nineties were Jordan. Two thousands were Duncan and Kobe together. The two thousand teens were LeBron and Curry together.

• 27:33Bill Simmons?

  The twenties are just Joker right now. I don't think we're, we have twenty six, twenty seven, twenty eight, twenty nine. So we have four, unless, where do you stand on what, what is decade end for the twenties? Does it have to be the thirty season or the twenty nine season? That's where it gets super confusing for me.

• 27:50Speaker 05

  I have not put a lot of thought.

• 27:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. It's really, it's your call. But who would you even have in the running for the two thousand twenties other than Joker? If we're like, what were the twenty twenties? Who owned that decade? It's Joker right now convincingly.

• 28:02Speaker 05

  Kawhi, just for being in the news all the time.

• 28:04Bill Simmons?

  But I mean, in the twenty twenties, they haven't.

• 28:06Speaker 05

  No, I'm just kidding. Shay, maybe.

• 28:10Bill Simmons?

  I just got your aspiration joke five, five seconds later. By the way, we're in the aspiration dome.

• 28:14Speaker 05

  Yanis.

• 28:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but they just.

• 28:16Speaker 05

  Yeah, Yanis is the only other one.

• 28:18Bill Simmons?

  Yanis hasn't made the.

• 28:19Speaker 05

  I understand, I understand.

• 28:20Bill Simmons?

  Round two in four years.

• 28:22Speaker 05

  I've got five years to play with.

• 28:23Speaker 04

  We do.

• 28:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 28:24Speaker 04

  Twenty five, twenty six, twenty seven, twenty eight.

• 28:26Bill Simmons?

  So the guy who can take it over the rest of the decade is Shay.

• 28:31Speaker 05

  Sure.

• 28:31Bill Simmons?

  Couple more titles with the resume. He's the only one, I think that's in the.

• 28:35Speaker 05

  You're just dismissing Jason Tatum? You've already got him coming, coming back in, you know, February Celtics, you know?

• 28:41Bill Simmons?

  I mean, that's maybe another candidate, Jason Tatum?

• 28:46Bill Simmons?

  I'm over for the Nuggets at fifty three and a half house.

• 28:49Speaker 04

  I am super over. This is a lock. Put it in my book right now. House lock Denver over for all the reasons.

• 28:58Bill Simmons?

  I'm not gonna announce my locks until.

• 29:00Speaker 04

  Oh.

• 29:00Bill Simmons?

  At the end of the pod, but you can do whatever you want. You can hit the legacy button whenever you want.

• 29:05Speaker 04

  It's Nuggets over is a lock.

• 29:06Bill Simmons?

  Are you over Zach?

• 29:08Speaker 05

  This was one of the ones I struggled with the most. There's like three that I went back and forth on. I'm going under on 53 and a half.

• 29:16Speaker 05

  Based on their history as sort of a regular season, good, but not great team. And I can't go over on everyone in the West, right? Like I've got to have some unders. True. So I I'm going slightly under like 51 and 31, 52 and 30. Prepared to be very wrong. I'm just gonna, I just gotta go under on someone. I'm going under on them. Playoff, different story. I'm not, I don't want any part of these dudes in a playoff series. I think they would be the number two seed in the West. And I'll go from there, but I'm going under.

• 29:46Bill Simmons?

  I would like to go on the record and say, because the season is about to start, that I think it's OKC, Denver.

• 29:53Speaker 05

  And then we drop. That's the finals.

• 29:54Bill Simmons?

  I think those are the two best teams.

• 29:56Speaker 04

  Western Conference Final is OKC.

• 29:57Speaker 05

  I mean, look, who knows what changes, right? Injuries and everything, but.

• 30:00Speaker 04

  Of course, of course.

• 30:00Bill Simmons?

  And if you're just talking about a ceiling of a team that could potentially join that nightclub. Maybe Cleveland, just from a talent standpoint and the fact that they won 64 last year, but I don't feel as certain of that.

• 30:13Speaker 05

  Honestly, I I mentioned this on my pod yesterday, like one of the fascinating, like I rarely start thinking about seedings. Until we're 60 games into the season. Everyone in the West has to be rooting for some scenario. Where Denver falls to four and has to play Oklahoma City in the second round, where you don't have to go through both of them. Because they're so clearly to me in a tier hovering above everybody else.

• 30:37Bill Simmons?

  Would you say that GM survey, they said, uh, which I thought was really interesting. But they had the home court advantage question. And Denver and OKC were basically like, had 95% of the votes or 90% of the votes or something. I was like, yeah, that's fair.

• 30:50Speaker 04

  But that's a good point because that's another incentive for Denver to get to.

• 30:53Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 30:54Speaker 04

  And be motivated to win 55.

• 30:55Speaker 05

  I'm still staying under. I'm just, I gotta be under on somebody.

• 30:58Speaker 04

  Can't hold that against you.

• 31:01Bill Simmons?

  Emails from Denver, message board, things from Denver, tweet replies from Denver.

• 31:06Speaker 04

  Fuck you, Zach. No. He went under you, motherfucker.

• 31:09Bill Simmons?

  I was so early on Jokic that I have a lifetime of fire with the Denver fans.

• 31:15Speaker 04

  Nuggets capital.

• 31:16Bill Simmons?

  Minnesota's over 49 and a half, one of the toughest ones. They were 49 and 33 last year. They are 10 to 1 to win the division and the conference, 17 to 1 for the title. And they have the seventh best finals odds.

• 31:32Bill Simmons?

  Zach, why don't the sports books respect this team? What is Minnesota missing? What did they do to antagonize?

• 31:39Speaker 05

  Okay, we're gonna go this way. All right. 49 wins last year, you said, like, not, that's not a lot of wins. That's under their current number. Lost a critical bench player in Alexander Walker, have to replace him mostly with young guys. When does the Mike Conley thing just fall apart completely to the point that they have to start DiVincenzo?

• 31:57Bill Simmons?

  That'd be my number one.

• 31:57Speaker 05

  And there's a trickle down effect there? That is, that would be the, that would be the case for the line being this low.

• 32:05Bill Simmons?

  Counterhouse?

• 32:06Speaker 04

  Well, the crazy thing is, they got to 49 after they started off really slow last year. They were an under 500 team through the first 20, 25 games or so.

• 32:15Bill Simmons?

  Unhappy. I mean, they had multiple podcasts for multiple weeks about what's going on with Minnesota.

• 32:20Speaker 05

  Was this, is this Randall fit like a disaster? What's happening?

• 32:23Bill Simmons?

  DiVincenzo is miserable. I mean, they made a pretty traumatic trade right before the season.

• 32:28Speaker 04

  It was, it was traumatic and it took a little bit for the chemistry experiment to work, but then we saw it work a little bit. And I think the version of what we saw in the Western Conference Finals, the second consecutive Western Conference Finals.

• 32:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 32:42Speaker 04

  That's who this team is, and there's still another level for Anthony Edwards. There's still another level for that dude. So I am in the same place as Zach, is sort of puzzled by the number being flat. And I'm not sure what informs that. I think the, it's anticipating the market being out on Minnesota. Not, because this, this number hasn't moved. It's been a hard 49 and a half.

• 33:06Bill Simmons?

  I mean, them having worse finals odds than the Lakers is pure lunacy and. I just don't understand it. They were top five net last year. They have a top 10 player. They still have a top five defense. And one thing that I I used last year that helped me a little bit. I used leaned on it more this year is the records and the numbers for the last 30 games of the season. And Minnesota was 20 and 10 the last 30 games. There's plus 7.3 with basically the team they have. And the only piece that's an X factor is Alexander Walker, who's getting those minutes other than Conley. But they have young guys that they can throw in those Alexander Walker minutes and and maybe get lucky. Plus they'll have a full DiPinto year.

• 33:49Bill Simmons?

  And Conley's like Horford, like I'm just not ruling him out anymore until we see that he's just completely washed up.

• 33:58Bill Simmons?

  I'm over. I I just think, I think you can make a case. This is like the fourth or fifth best team in the league. So at that point, you have to be 50 wins and over. So I am an over yet again, three overs in a row for me.

• 34:10Speaker 05

  Dillingham, Shannon, I like Jalen Clark, like I think they can eat up the Alexander Walker minutes well enough. With Ant ascending, Randall feeling more comfortable, Gobert just as a great floor for your defense. Okay, the other case against is they got 82 games out of McDaniels last year, 82 Alexander Walker, 80 Nas, 79 Edwards, 72 Gobert, 69 Randall, though it felt like he missed more time. Like they were very healthy last year. But expected wins last year, 54. They shat the bed in close games.

• 34:41Bill Simmons?

  Yep, for two months, remember? They were really bad.

• 34:45Speaker 05

  I am going aggressively enthusiastically over.

• 34:49Bill Simmons?

  All right. Aggressively over. See, I understand. I think this is a 50 win team.

• 34:52Speaker 04

  Yeah, and I understand why Zach wouldn't want to do Denver because it's it puts it would put him in the position that you and I are in BS, which is another over, over, over, over. We show up at the over under podcasts 2025 and we're banging West overs. But you know what?

• 35:08Speaker 05

  Denver's number is four numbers higher than Minnesota.

• 35:10Bill Simmons?

  But if we think these are three of the five best teams in the league, it makes more sense. It's just coincidentally, they're on the same division. We didn't mention Julius Randall, living happily in his post marijuana life. No more marijuana for him.

• 35:26Bill Simmons?

  He felt like it made him distant. It slowed him down. His brain's clear. He's feeling great.

• 35:32Speaker 05

  Do you think that message reverberated amount around the NBA community and there are going to be imitators?

• 35:37Bill Simmons?

  There was a great Durant quote, Durant quote where Durant was like, yeah, I respect it, but me personally, I really liked the plant.

• 35:48Speaker 04

  I did not see that. I do. I do want to hear from Zach. This will factor in. What I will get to Toronto eventually. What's the Toronto situation with the plant? That's going to factor in crucially for me.

• 35:59Speaker 05

  Are you asking me because you think I plan on vacations around around?

• 36:03Speaker 04

  Generally aware as a person that spends time in Canada.

• 36:05Bill Simmons?

  Is it a marijuana city?

• 36:07Speaker 05

  I'm unaware, but I Canada generally is a Toronto is a forward thinking.

• 36:14Speaker 04

  There's a player I'm thinking of that I'm worried about.

• 36:17Bill Simmons?

  House, don't get us canceled. Come on.

• 36:19Speaker 04

  Just a player I'm worried about. That's all.

• 36:21Bill Simmons?

  House, are you over or under?

• 36:22Speaker 04

  Over.

• 36:23Bill Simmons?

  All right, three overs.

• 36:24Speaker 04

  Over.

• 36:25Bill Simmons?

  Well, we spent a lot of time on those three teams, so we're going to take our first break and come back with the two crappy teams in the vision. This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what, you're going to want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're going to want WeatherTech for American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather. Visit weatherTech.com today. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun, sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead, but what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and

• 37:08Bill Simmons?

  save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully, your team doesn't go to Cancun. One, two, three, Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes. Yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming.

• 37:49Bill Simmons?

  PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 as a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association Member, FTIC. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA season is coming. FanDuel is the place to let you play your game. Everything, everything they have to get you ready for the season. We're going to be talking about a lot on the podcast for not just today, but the rest of the week and next week. Cool bets, season leaders, player specials, win totals, exact team outcomes, playoff parlays. You can go nuts. Even better, you can parlay your favorite bets together for an even bigger payout. Take a flyer in the MVP race, crown your champion in October, parlay or playoff dark horses.

• 38:34Bill Simmons?

  We're going to be doing our season future boost. We're trying to figure this out during the over/under pods. FanDuel is going to have it. I'll talk about it on my Thursday podcast. We like to put three teams together with win totals, 40-plus wins, 45-plus wins, 50-plus wins, put them together and we're on a win streak. We lost last year because of the stupid Suns, but we're going to win this year. So get ready for our boost announced on Thursday's pod. Visit FanDuel.com/BS today and you can start planning your futures bets now. FanDuel, play your game. Must be 21-plus, present in select states, 18-plus in DC, Kentucky and Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMER or visit RG-help.com, call 888-79777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut.

• 39:18Bill Simmons?

  I don't feel like we mentioned Anthony Edwards enough in the last segment, but it's fine. We have a whole year of podcasts for him. We're going to go to the Portland Trailblazers, the next team in whatever this division is called, Northwest. The State Farm Northwest Division.

• 39:30Speaker 05

  Presented by Kia.

• 39:31Bill Simmons?

  Their over under is thirty four and a half and they're plus four ten to make the playoffs. Plus two hundred for the playing house. If you want to get frisky, they had a Drew Holiday, they traded Anthony Simons for him. They lost Deandre Ayton. They didn't lose him. They they they basically they brought him to the airport like a suitcase and just left the suitcase.

• 39:51Speaker 05

  They evicted, they evicted him.

• 39:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 39:52Speaker 05

  Evicted.

• 39:53Bill Simmons?

  And they added a Yang Hansen. Who uh already feels like that was like one of the smartest marketing moves of the decade. People love him. He's selling jerseys, hats, everything.

• 40:05Speaker 05

  The kids love him.

• 40:05Bill Simmons?

  He might be good.

• 40:06Speaker 05

  My kid insisted on watching every summer league game with Young Hansen.

• 40:09Bill Simmons?

  The kids love.

• 40:10Speaker 05

  I'm telling you.

• 40:11Bill Simmons?

  Young Hansen.

• 40:12Speaker 05

  Cause they can, they can see his enthusiasm out there.

• 40:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 40:16Speaker 05

  And it's infectious.

• 40:17Bill Simmons?

  I have no idea if it's going to translate to NBA games, but uh I do enjoy him. The one thing with this over under. And I was leaning more toward over, but Scoot tore his hamstring. And is out. They're like one to two months. I I feel like that's one of those injuries where you're not right for a while, even when you come back. And uh Zach.

• 40:40Bill Simmons?

  That shaded me toward the under here.

• 40:42Speaker 05

  Okay. Thirty six wins last year, so they went over this number. Expected wins thirty three. Fattened up at the end of the season, twenty three and eighteen in their last forty one, which you could read either way. They found something or they took advantage of, you know, the morass.

• 40:57Bill Simmons?

  You know what they found? House's old friend, Denny Abdia.

• 40:59Speaker 05

  Abdia.

• 41:00Bill Simmons?

  On fire. He was unbelievable. He's like one of the best twenty players in the league during the stretch.

• 41:05Speaker 05

  He's, and I think that was totally real. Like, I think that dude is a legit.

• 41:08Bill Simmons?

  Sustainable.

• 41:09Speaker 05

  Like, very good player.

• 41:12Speaker 05

  Shaden maybe goes up a level. Grant only played forty seven games last year.

• 41:18Bill Simmons?

  Might be forty six too many.

• 41:19Speaker 05

  Yeah. We both had the same joke. I'm sure you're hoping this is the year Time Lord plays eighty games. He's still on the Blazers.

• 41:27Bill Simmons?

  Not betting on that one.

• 41:31Speaker 05

  I am going under on this, which surprised me because I, I felt like a kind of a jolt of optimism about how the Blazers finished the season. I'm like super intrigued by their young guys. I just don't like their depth. I think their offense is going to be putrid. Like, there's just no shooting. I don't know if the centers are really ready for this level of offensive responsibility in Klingon and Young. And the West is just really, really good. I think Portland's going to be solid. Their defense is going to be really good. Like Kamara, Abdi, Klingon, like a rock solid defensive team. I just think they're not going to score enough to go over this number. So I'm going slight under.

• 42:05Speaker 04

  This is literally the script. They can't score. And I don't want the Portland soccer bombs to get mad at me. I love this Portland team. I root for them because Denny, I root for Denny. It broke my heart when he, when they shipped him out of Washington. I understood why. I get the timeline that Washington is on. He's too good for the Washington timeline.

• 42:24Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 42:24Speaker 04

  And I'm glad for him to be in the situation that he's in. But I think that they are going to have a hard time scoring the basketball. And so I am doing the under play for the Portland Trail.

• 42:36Bill Simmons?

  I was surprised. I was over in my head all offseason.

• 42:39Speaker 05

  Me too.

• 42:40Bill Simmons?

  And I think here's the title that they're going to win because I think we all think they're going under and I think they will. They might have a chance to be 2026's hipster NBA team.

• 42:50Speaker 04

  Oh, that's, that's a good idea.

• 42:52Bill Simmons?

  Defense. There's going to be some really good defense.

• 42:55Speaker 04

  Say camera. We have to say camera's name multiple times.

• 42:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 42:58Speaker 05

  Tumani Kamara. I said it.

• 42:59Speaker 04

  Kamara.

• 43:00Bill Simmons?

  I like when you called him camera, though.

• 43:02Speaker 04

  I'm going to keep up.

• 43:02Bill Simmons?

  Because you had the first malprophism of the pod. You had the first mispronunciation.

• 43:06Speaker 04

  One of a dozen.

• 43:08Bill Simmons?

  Kamara, who I think was really the thinking man's, like that, that really, really, really nerdy epicenter of, of basketball on the internet, where people are like, look at these fucking numbers when this guy's plays. Look at the numbers of guys that he guards and how much he, uh, I think I voted for him. Second team defensive all defense.

• 43:31Speaker 05

  I didn't have a ballot, but I would have.

• 43:33Speaker 04

  He had a first team candidate.

• 43:35Bill Simmons?

  Scoot. I still have all my Scoot stock. Feeling great about it. And then Yang Hansen. I think this will be a really fun league pass team, but there, you made the key point house. Like, no Scoot for two months. We're not even positive if he's going to be like a, I don't know, an efficient offensive player. But I thought, you know, Simons, the, Simons is intriguing. The Celtics are like.

• 43:58Speaker 04

  Oh, boy.

• 43:59Bill Simmons?

  Zach knew I was gonna do this. The Celtics are like, whoa, Simons, like, this guy's like a really gifted offensive player. Like, you can run offense for him in the last four minutes of the game. And he did that a lot for the Blazers last year.

• 44:12Speaker 05

  He did.

• 44:13Bill Simmons?

  And they just pulled that out. And guess what? I love Drew Holiday, but that's not Drew Holiday.

• 44:17Speaker 05

  And I don't, I don't have a lot of faith that he's gonna get to 60, 65 games for the Blazers. They're already down one guard and screwed. It should be noted, like, I think their incentives are all like, we're trying to win this year. We're diehard trying to get in the play-in.

• 44:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 44:30Speaker 05

  Chase of whatever, like, as win as much as we can get.

• 44:32Bill Simmons?

  The heart's in the right place.

• 44:33Speaker 05

  However, they do owe a lottery-protected pick to the Bulls. So like, if things are not going great 55 games into the season, you always have to factor those in. You always have to factor that. I don't think they care. I don't think it's gonna guide their thinking. It's just if we get to a point where we have to start thinking about them.

• 44:51Bill Simmons?

  I didn't love the Drew Holiday season last year. And I say that as somebody who loves Drew Holiday. And I thought, uh, I thought it was alarming that he couldn't guard anyone on the Knicks. Because I thought a year ago, he's somebody who could have guarded all of the Knicks. And in that Knicks playoff series, I just, I was really surprised that he wasn't at that same level. I mention this because they're paying Drew Holiday, Jeremy Grant, and Dame Lillard, who's not gonna play this year, it combines $77 million. And wait, that then goes to $82 million guaranteed the year later. Oh, wait, 88 million in year three of that for those three guys. And Holiday will be like 37 at that point.

• 45:35Bill Simmons?

  It's really bad cap management. I'm just gonna say it. Like, when we have the second apron and stuff, that's just a lot of money to pay for those guys. Uh, I don't agree with it.

• 45:43Speaker 05

  Well, Grant was the desperation, trying to keep Dame, you know, we promised you this deal.

• 45:49Bill Simmons?

  It was the Myles Turner. Um, I really wanna stay married, here's a ring.

• 45:53Speaker 05

  The Drew, I didn't like-

• 45:54Bill Simmons?

  Here's a new ring, I gave you a new carrot, please, don't divorce me.

• 45:58Speaker 05

  The Drew trade was a little ahead of their skis for me. That was like a very win-now, we need an adult in the room, we need leadership. Which is like, all that stuff is valuable, but it's not as valuable as a $37 million player option three seasons from now. That's, that's just-

• 46:15Bill Simmons?

  It was a miracle trade for the Celtics.

• 46:17Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 46:17Bill Simmons?

  I get, listen, I get why they did it. It's good to have adults around. It really is. That's fundamentally like they just felt you can just be too young and it's nice to have a couple of people like even I was talking to, I was talking to our friend Callie Curry because Seth went to Golden State and it's like, well, what's different about Golden State than Charlotte other? I don't think she'd mind me saying this. And she's like, well, they have like people his age on Golden State like Curry, Al Horford, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, like these are older players. There's something to have a couple of old guys around. So I get it. Why Portland's like, hey, we need a couple

• 46:58Bill Simmons?

  more experienced guys. Drew is like a beloved locker room guy. I get it.

• 47:03Speaker 04

  I mean, that's like

• 47:04Bill Simmons?

  I wouldn't have done it, but I get it.

• 47:05Speaker 04

  What's the difference between Maui and Galveston? Like, what? What kind of question is that?

• 47:10Bill Simmons?

  Are we three unders?

• 47:11Speaker 05

  Three unders.

• 47:12Speaker 04

  Unders, yeah.

• 47:13Bill Simmons?

  Utah Jazz, over under 19 and a half. They were 17 and 65 last year. They lost John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, and Colin Sexton. Didn't really get anything back for any of those guys. They have Kyle Anderson. They have my comeback player of the year pick, Yusuf Nurkic. That's not true. George Niang and they added Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton. And most importantly, Zach, we'll keep mentioning this with the picks. They owe a top eight first protected to OKC, which means to be safe. You want to be in the bottom five to feel really good about not having to hand

• 47:57Bill Simmons?

  that pick over. I don't know where to start with this team. I get, we'll start here. How does Will Hardy explain his job to his wife? When he's home at night, what does he say? This is year four for Will Hardy being like, hey, if it's cool, we want to go 18 and 64 again.

• 48:15Speaker 04

  I think he say, there are only 30 of these. Mike, they keep extending my contract into perpetuity. Do you like the home we live in? School system seems pretty good. Like we're living, we're like the five star hotels on vacation all summer where we go.

• 48:30Bill Simmons?

  Ski's great.

• 48:31Speaker 04

  Yeah, I think it's a good situation. I think he's like, look, like, look around the league at the coaches. If he became available, he would, I mean, you know, instantly by any of the top teams in the league, if a top team needed to make, make a move. Like, none of this is going to besmirch his character. Well, interesting, interesting name.

• 48:52Speaker 05

  This is why Utah, I mean, they've literally, I've lost count of how many contract extensions Will Hardy has got. Like, I assume his deal runs for like 17 more years. They know, but that's what you do. Like, if you believe in a coach and the coach is going through a rebuild, you, you give him these kind of years. So it's not the classic thing where as soon as the team gets good, oh, we're hiring the veteran coach.

• 49:11Speaker 04

  He's overqualified for this team, and that's been the case for, for all four years.

• 49:14Bill Simmons?

  Plus, it worked out incredible for Brett Brown.

• 49:17Speaker 05

  That's what I'm saying. You don't want that, you, you treat.

• 49:19Bill Simmons?

  That was a joke.

• 49:20Speaker 05

  I know, but that's what I'm saying. You, this is what the extensions.

• 49:23Bill Simmons?

  This is, you just made the case that Brett Brown's friends were making in the 2010s. No, this is great. Someday it's gonna be awesome, and he's never coached again.

• 49:31Speaker 05

  But they never gave him like extensions on top of extensions on top of extensions, like the Jazz were doing with Laurie.

• 49:36Speaker 04

  Why do, why do you think they did?

• 49:37Bill Simmons?

  Gave him the GM job.

• 49:39Speaker 05

  That's true.

• 49:39Bill Simmons?

  Took Markel Fultz over Jason Tatum.

• 49:42Speaker 05

  That wasn't him.

• 49:43Bill Simmons?

  Wasn't him? Who was it?

• 49:44Speaker 04

  I think that was one of the.

• 49:46Bill Simmons?

  Oh, here's my next what's in it for you at this point. What's in it for Laurie Markkinen? House at this point. Why does he want to be on this team?

• 49:54Speaker 05

  175 million dollars.

• 49:55Speaker 04

  Great contract. Yeah, a lot of dollars.

• 49:57Bill Simmons?

  Well, they gave him the extension, like, you're being the team this year, and then we'll talk about it after, but.

• 50:00Speaker 04

  Nice, comfortable situation.

• 50:03Bill Simmons?

  So.

• 50:03Speaker 04

  Not being asked to do too much.

• 50:05Speaker 05

  That's the only, that's the over argument, is that the number is extremely low, and they have an all-star borderline all-star level player who played 47 games last year, and a good starting center who played 58. And if they get 75 games out of those two, can they go over this number? Because the bigger is, the issue beyond that is, I think all these other veterans are gonna go to contenders. I think a guy like George Niang could help a contender. I think like, um, uh, I, I, I think they're all going, the biggest issue is like, who in the hell is dribbling the ball for this team that I trust to manage productive NBA possessions? And I had, the answer is like, at this point, and it's not, it's not a bad thing, because they're all so young. I don't trust anybody. And so like Lowry Markkinen is not like a first option ball handler

• 50:50Speaker 05

  type of star. I just don't know that combined with the possibility of them trading Markkinen. I'm going, I'm going under, which is shocking considering 19 and a half is like an embarrassingly low number.

• 51:03Speaker 04

  It's a super low number. The thing that makes me nervous about it is that Ace Bailey might be a badass motherfucker. And that might make those people so excited that they come out and they try and win games. They do like what Brooklyn did last year, which is they come out and wins some games early on in the season. And, and you know, look really good.

• 51:22Bill Simmons?

  Hold on. I'm on with my realtor. I told him we'd be calling.

• 51:28Bill Simmons?

  Cause apparently Ace Bailey Island, there's condos.

• 51:31Speaker 05

  There's no island. How is there an island?

• 51:32Bill Simmons?

  It's a giant island. It's like a peninsula.

• 51:34Speaker 05

  He's a top five pick of the draft.

• 51:37Bill Simmons?

  Doesn't matter. It's a huge island.

• 51:38Speaker 04

  He was a top three that slid.

• 51:39Bill Simmons?

  There's beachfront property available on Ace Bailey Island. I'm in. Are you in?

• 51:44Speaker 05

  I assume we're all in.

• 51:46Speaker 04

  Yeah, we're all in, obviously.

• 51:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 51:47Speaker 05

  It's overcrowded.

• 51:48Bill Simmons?

  I'll call you back.

• 51:49Speaker 05

  It's overcrowded.

• 51:49Speaker 04

  The bars are packed.

• 51:50Bill Simmons?

  No, he's saying, he's telling me it's not overcrowded.

• 51:52Speaker 05

  But like he's gonna.

• 51:53Bill Simmons?

  He said that all the stuff, all the stuff in the offseason made people nervous, right?

• 51:56Speaker 05

  Yeah. Okay. All right. We're in. He's going to be very exciting. I'm high on him. He's going to have crazy highlights. I just don't think it's going to be like efficient in against adult NBA teams. That's all.

• 52:08Bill Simmons?

  Counter. Um, he looked like a more filled out 19 year old Kevin Durant in all the highlights I've seen so far.

• 52:16Speaker 05

  I would take it, I would take it a little easy.

• 52:18Bill Simmons?

  I said, look, I just said, look, you can't see my boner right now.

• 52:21Speaker 04

  Zach, Zach Lowe sending you some settle down juice right now. He's pushing it right in your direction.

• 52:25Speaker 05

  I assume you're going like way over.

• 52:27Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm going under.

• 52:28Speaker 04

  I am going under as well, but I just wanted to make the case that Ace Bailey is the argument for the over. Cause I mean, like that enthusiasm.

• 52:36Bill Simmons?

  I actually thought he was going to be a bust after, but like the, some of the advanced stats with him as a college player, combined with how erratic some of the non basketball stuff seemed, and then him going to Utah and not seeming like he wanted to go there. And I was like, oh, man. But I understand why Danny did it because it's like you have to go highest ceiling. This guy's the highest ceiling. You gotta do it. But then all the stuff I've read, all the stuff I've heard, and then watching him, how comfortable he seems physically in these games already, when he's like a baby.

• 53:07Speaker 04

  He's a professional basketball player.

• 53:08Bill Simmons?

  He, he has more like thickness and size than I was expecting. And then the, the shot, I don't know if he would be fun to play with. He might just be like his own solo act, but I think it's gonna be really easy for him to score. And it may, it may be right away, which to me makes me think that maybe you move faster on marketing, like trying to make the trade. Cause it's like you can put Ace in, like, let's get him the ball. Let's get him shots.

• 53:33Speaker 05

  And I just want to say for the Utah fans, me saying who's dribbling the ball. I watched your team. I saw what Isaiah Collier did, like solid. Kante George has flashes. I'm just saying, like, this is the NBA. It's hard to run offense and their efficiency numbers are bad. If you have property on Ace Bailey Island, which is by the way ridiculous, it's like a continent. Can I get like a little condo on Filipowski Fjord?

• 53:56Bill Simmons?

  I like that guy. He's pretty good. I like him too. I like Sensible. I like some of the guys in this team. They're gonna be terrible this year.

• 54:01Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 54:03Bill Simmons?

  They...

• 54:03Speaker 04

  I'm gonna watch them, by the way.

• 54:05Speaker 05

  So our only disagreement in this entire division is Denver.

• 54:09Speaker 04

  I'm under and you're over. That's it.

• 54:10Speaker 05

  So far.

• 54:10Speaker 04

  Otherwise, we're unanimous.

• 54:12Bill Simmons?

  We're all under on this?

• 54:14Speaker 05

  Yes, we're all under.

• 54:15Bill Simmons?

  Can I give you three marketing teams really quick?

• 54:17Speaker 05

  Sure.

• 54:20Bill Simmons?

  Detroit's been

• 54:21Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 54:22Bill Simmons?

  the, the sexy one. Could this be our last gasp Golden State move? They already tried to get him.

• 54:29Speaker 05

  I'm not sure how that one works now with Butler in the door, salary wise.

• 54:32Bill Simmons?

  Kaminga, they, they can't patch the salaries together or no?

• 54:36Speaker 05

  They have picks to trade. I mean, Kaminga's got a base year compensation thing.

• 54:39Bill Simmons?

  Buddy Heald, all their picks.

• 54:42Speaker 04

  Is Kaminga on the, on the right timeline for Utah?

• 54:45Bill Simmons?

  I don't, that I don't know. Would I, would I want to jeopardize the Ace Bailey continent with, with Kaminga? I'm not sure.

• 54:54Bill Simmons?

  Should Houston have gone after marketing over KD?

• 54:59Speaker 04

  We're gonna have, that's a fascinating question.

• 55:01Speaker 05

  That's a good one.

• 55:03Bill Simmons?

  I was thinking about that the other day. Look, would Utah have taken Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and the number 10 for Markkinen?

• 55:09Speaker 05

  I don't think so.

• 55:09Bill Simmons?

  But probably like another first. You'd have to throw in like more stuff, right? Maybe a Brooklyn pick?

• 55:14Speaker 05

  Yeah, you'd have to throw in more stuff. And the contract is like, the contract is right now, after he played 47 games last year, not entirely his fault, the Jazz were faking injuries and all that stuff.

• 55:24Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 55:26Speaker 05

  The contract is kind of an eye of the beholder contract. Like, you can find executives around that are like, I don't know if I want to pay Lowry Markkinen $54 million in four years.

• 55:36Bill Simmons?

  I did, I sent House the depth charts, the starters, bench for each team. Utah's bench, Ace Bailey, Williams, Sensabaugh, Clayton Nurkic, and Phil Pauski. Are they gonna play him and Markkinen together?

• 55:50Speaker 05

  What, let's go. Like, what are we waiting for?

• 55:52Speaker 04

  Good point.

• 55:53Bill Simmons?

  All right, we're moving to the Southwest Division, which is led by the Houston Rockets. Over/under 52.5, minus 220 to win the division, which surprised me. 17-1 for the title, 10-1 for the conference. They were 52-30 last year. They added Kevin Durant, you might have heard of him. Clint Capella, for some reason. Finney Smith. They lost Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green. They lost Landale, who I like. They lost Whitmore to House's Wizards.

• 56:21Speaker 04

  Let's go Whitmore.

• 56:22Bill Simmons?

  And sadly, they lost Fred Van Vliet. And, and I think that's the question with this over/under, is, I'm old school, I still believe point guards kind of matter. And this seems like a high number and a really good conference for a team that I have no idea who's gonna be handling the ball for them against pressure and crunch time situations. Who's gonna be making sure people get the ball properly? I talked about this with Goldsberry last week, like, the, there's some stagnation, toilet bowl offense potential with this team. 52 seemed high, Zach. What'd you think?

• 56:58Speaker 05

  Uh, the Van Vliet injury is a killer. Amon Thompson, Reed Shepard, you know, they'll get their turns. We'll see how that goes. I think they're, I think game to game, their floor is really high because their defense is going to be so good. Their rebounding is going to be so good and they're going to play super hard every single night. Um, I'm worried about Eason missing games because he misses games every year. Van Vliet's already out. Finney Smith has had health issues in the offseason. Durant generally checks in at like 60 games.

• 57:32Bill Simmons?

  Durant was in the 2007 draft.

• 57:34Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 57:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Were you married yet?

• 57:36Speaker 04

  Been around. No.

• 57:38Bill Simmons?

  How many wives ago was that?

• 57:39Speaker 04

  That's not funny. I've only been married to one wife, but I took my time. That's why I wasn't married in 2007.

• 57:46Bill Simmons?

  I thought it was kind of funny.

• 57:47Speaker 05

  I, 52 and a half is a big number. I'm surprised it didn't move a little bit more with Van Vliet's injury.

• 57:52Bill Simmons?

  Me too.

• 57:53Speaker 05

  And I am going under on the Rockets.

• 57:56Speaker 04

  Oh, I wanted to be the first one to say under on the Rockets. I'll be the second one to say under on the Rockets. That's the case. That's.

• 58:01Speaker 05

  I think they're going to be like 50 and 30, 49 and 33, 48 and 34, but I'm going under. That's a big number.

• 58:07Speaker 04

  Just tell me who they're going to acquire for the F V V spot. They, they need, they need a body.

• 58:12Speaker 05

  That's the wild card. They could make any kind of trade they want.

• 58:14Bill Simmons?

  House, make your case for your team with this, in this spot.

• 58:17Speaker 04

  Well, I do think that CJ McCollum would be kind of an incredible replacement for, for F V V. I think it's like an 85 cents on the dollar kind of thing. I had to shout out my guy Ben Standing who threw that at me. He's like, why wouldn't Houston grab CJ? I was like, oh, you know what? That's a goddamn good point. The other thing, the reason to be concerned about this number is because their, their coach is, is just a monster. And they're, you would worry looking at this team coming in with the F V V injury and say the chemistry piece of this is going to be funky. Are they going to be like Minnesota, a 500 team for a little while until they figure it out? Not with Ema. I think, I think they're going to come in prepared.

• 58:56Speaker 05

  Are you, are you sending out Van Vliet in this McCollum trade?

• 58:59Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 59:00Speaker 05

  Just cold hearted, like thanks for your service.

• 59:01Speaker 04

  Cold hearted. It's the NBA.

• 59:02Speaker 05

  Enjoy your rehab.

• 59:03Bill Simmons?

  House is just ice cold when it comes to trades.

• 59:06Speaker 04

  Ask him about Isaiah Thomas.

• 59:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 59:08Speaker 05

  It's fair.

• 59:09Speaker 04

  I mean, this is the NBA.

• 59:11Bill Simmons?

  It's a one to 10 scale with the 10 being trading Isaiah Thomas when he had a hurt hip. That was just fucking brutal. I didn't feel good about that when it happened.

• 59:19Speaker 04

  Houston wants to win the title. They had, they, they acquired Kevin Durant. How many more years is Kevin Durant going to be effective?

• 59:27Bill Simmons?

  So the case for the over 52,

• 59:31Bill Simmons?

  if you're gonna make it, Thompson would have to go make the leap that everyone's been.

• 59:37Speaker 05

  He's making a leap.

• 59:38Bill Simmons?

  But I'm saying like a leap leap.

• 59:40Speaker 05

  Like reliable 18 to 22.

• 59:42Bill Simmons?

  Like we'd have to be like, holy shit, this guy's turned into, I think, a pretty amazing two way player.

• 59:47Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 59:49Bill Simmons?

  But the other thing is defense is good with the over unders. I was like, if you're reliable defense night to night over 82 games, it's usually a decent indicator with the overs.

• 59:58Speaker 05

  And I think Shengun goes up a notch this year too.

• 1:00:01Bill Simmons?

  Eurobasket? You wouldn't do it.

• 1:00:04Speaker 05

  What, I wouldn't watch it?

• 1:00:05Bill Simmons?

  You weren't watching the Eurobasket pay per views. You were just highlight.

• 1:00:09Speaker 05

  I don't need another streaming service, but I think Shengun is,

• 1:00:13Speaker 05

  still has untapped stuff.

• 1:00:14Bill Simmons?

  House didn't watch it. He just went on NBA Reddit a couple of times and watched highlights of.

• 1:00:19Speaker 05

  Good enough.

• 1:00:19Bill Simmons?

  That's it. That was all you had.

• 1:00:21Speaker 05

  Good enough.

• 1:00:21Bill Simmons?

  Uh, uh oh. Legacy makeover.

• 1:00:24Speaker 05

  Oh my. Uh oh, I'll be where we're doing it, aren't we? You're, we're doing it. We're just gonna dive right in and do, do, do the thing.

• 1:00:31Bill Simmons?

  If they make the finals this year with, without Van Vliet and Durant's the centerpiece of this, super happy. It's, it's, it's a, this is like the last thing that could shift anything for him, I think. Cause I think people have decided one way or another on him. If you, year for the camp, like I think you and I are in and House where it's like, we actually think this guy's better than people realize. This career was better in 17 and 18 on Golden State. He actually was fucking unbelievable. That 14 MVP season, all the scoring stuff. I think he's the best pure scoring forward of all time. The LeBron fans will debate that. Cause they'll be like, well, LeBron has the most points. I'm just saying like, just from getting two points, I think he's the surest bet we've ever had at the forward position.

• 1:01:17Bill Simmons?

  And yet there's all the other stuff that we don't need to go into and all the baggage and how unhappy the Phoenix thing was, how unhappy the Brooklyn thing became. 2016, OKC up 3-1 in that series, blowing it. 2014, not being able to get over the hump. There's a lot of ways you can ding him.

• 1:01:35Bill Simmons?

  But if he takes Houston to the finals as their best guy, that's, that's like an unbelievable new wrinkle to this.

• 1:01:43Speaker 05

  Look, we could do three hours.

• 1:01:45Bill Simmons?

  We could. We probably will at some point.

• 1:01:47Speaker 05

  Reconstructing Kevin Durant's career or going through the alternate realities of Kevin Durant's career after that 2016 season, including one where maybe he goes and saves the Wizards.

• 1:01:55Bill Simmons?

  I would say he's had the most sliding doors of any NBA player this century, even if you start with the Seattle thing. Just him, them moving and just having that nucleus. He's probably still there now in the Seattle Supersonics.

• 1:02:08Speaker 05

  And I think he and his people were caught off guard by, and I don't think they should have been, but just like the perception that the Warriors championships count as like half championships. Like he's just never going to get the credit that a two-time finals MVP should for those two seasons because they, the deck was stacked.

• 1:02:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:02:27Speaker 05

  And he's been searching for Brooklyn, Phoenix, and it like, you know, it just hasn't worked. And he's part of the reason it has the award. Like he's been awesome, but he's it like the mood of those teams has not been very happy.

• 1:02:42Bill Simmons?

  Anything to add, House?

• 1:02:43Speaker 04

  No, I, I agree.

• 1:02:44Bill Simmons?

  He turned down your team like seven different times.

• 1:02:46Speaker 05

  You need even, you need even take the calls.

• 1:02:49Speaker 04

  Didn't take the calls. Zach knows. I didn't have to say it. Yeah. I mean, you can understand why. Franchise in Washington finally has a good front.

• 1:02:57Bill Simmons?

  Have you decided on KD or could he do anything with the rest of his career that would change anything in your head?

• 1:03:03Speaker 04

  I feel like there's two more years. It's this year and next, and let's see what happens.

• 1:03:07Bill Simmons?

  I'm excited just to have him have all the Jalen Green possessions from last year. Just in my head with the Rockets. Just give him all of the Jalen Green dribbling the ball up for 15 seconds and doing some sort of Jalen Green play. Um, that'll be fun.

• 1:03:25Speaker 05

  Oops, sorry. Are you re, are you reigniting your feud with Jalen Green? Is that what's happening right now?

• 1:03:30Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm just excited to see Kevin Durant.

• 1:03:31Speaker 05

  Are you going under? What's your call?

• 1:03:34Bill Simmons?

  I'm a hard under.

• 1:03:38Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm just under. I think this is, they're somewhere in the 48 to 51 range for me. But I think them going 53 and 29 or higher without Van Vliet seems insane to me. In this conference, they're in the East, more of an argument. Zach, I asked Goldsberry this last week, West teams you'd want to be the next five years. OKC and San Antonio are 1-2 in some order, correct?

• 1:04:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, without, without thinking about it, it's hard to beat.

• 1:04:08Bill Simmons?

  Those two are the top two house, you agree? OKC, San Antonio. You'd want to be, you want to have those rosters and those assets over anybody else.

• 1:04:15Speaker 04

  Okay.

• 1:04:16Bill Simmons?

  Does Houston have a case for the third spot?

• 1:04:18Speaker 04

  Great. This is a great question.

• 1:04:20Bill Simmons?

  I gave you Houston, Denver, Dallas, Minnesota.

• 1:04:23Speaker 04

  Minnesota is the, the one that I think is the closest for me. So I think Anthony Edwards.

• 1:04:29Speaker 05

  I think it has to be Blink Test, as you like to say, I think it has to be Houston.

• 1:04:34Bill Simmons?

  Cause of the picks.

• 1:04:34Speaker 05

  The picks and Amen Thompson, like just give me all the Amen Thompson stock.

• 1:04:38Bill Simmons?

  And the trade flexibility.

• 1:04:39Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:04:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think we all agree. All right, San Antonio, 43 and a half is the over under. There was some action on this. This was 44 and a half last week. It dropped. Plus 450 for the division. Hold that thought. 35 to one for the conference. 65 to one for the title. Minus 166 for the playoffs. They won 34 games last year, even though Wemby did not play after the All-Star break. They added Luke Cornet and Kelly Olynyk. They added Dylan Harper, the second pick in the draft. They added Carter Bryant. And they lost CP3 Mamu, who I know you love. Branham, they have new coach Mitch Johnson. Fox is out to start the season.

• 1:05:24Bill Simmons?

  So the case here would be, are these guys 10 wins better? Than last season. What do you think, House? Are they 10 wins better?

• 1:05:32Speaker 04

  Um, just right out of the box? Nope. I don't think so. It's, it's, it's, it's asking a lot with the injury uncertainty. And I don't feel like we're completely in the clear with injury uncertainty with this team. Like the way they're building, Wemby looks unbelievable.

• 1:05:48Bill Simmons?

  So is that a Wemby injury certainty?

• 1:05:50Speaker 04

  It's just across the board.

• 1:05:51Bill Simmons?

  You're just nervous for him just perennially?

• 1:05:53Speaker 04

  Yes, I'm going to be until we get 70 games from him. Give me a nice, nice, easy, reliable 70 and then, you know, then that we can build from there. After what happened. So, uh, and the Fox thing is, is a bummer also. 10 wins is just a, a bridge too far for me. And I think the West, this is a function of how competitive the West is. I only have like one team dropping out of the top 10, one team moving into the top 10. The Spurs ain't it. So it's an under for me.

• 1:06:24Speaker 05

  Zach Lowe? Over. Over. 43 and a half over. I don't even like, I just think Wemba Yama is incredible and he's gonna be, I mean, what's the, at worst, the six or seven best player in the NBA this year? Top 10 defense all by himself. The Fox thing makes me nervous. The Fox injury was my only pause, the only reason I even thought about this. So you can say, well, do they have enough shooting around Wemba Yama? Fair question. How does Fox, Harper, Castle, three ball handlers who are shaky three-point shooters? How does that all fit? Sohan is another non-shooter. I think the Cornet thing is a massively underrated upgrade for their team. Olynyk can help their team. I just, but it, to me, it comes down to, I just thinks this dude is so goddamn good.

• 1:07:07Speaker 05

  And their supporting cast is good enough that I, that I can get to 44, 45 wins. I'm over.

• 1:07:13Bill Simmons?

  Best big men, year three.

• 1:07:17Bill Simmons?

  Duncan won the title in year two. Kareem also won the title in year two.

• 1:07:23Bill Simmons?

  Hakeem lost the finals in year two. So these are all things that happened the first three years of someone's career. Dave Cowens, year three, MVP, 68 wins, Eastern Conference Finals. Shaq, year three, 57 wins, made the finals. David Robinson, year three, was his famous fantasy season house. 23 and 12 with 6.8 stocks, blocks and steals combined. Moses, 49 wins, Eastern Conference Finals. The only two, Yao had 51 wins. The only two year three guys out of the great centers, Ewing and Dwight, where nothing happened. We had him on a TV last night as we watched football. And I just think it's indisputable that he looks way better than he did as a rookie,

• 1:08:07Bill Simmons?

  that he moves better, with all the shit that he's doing with.

• 1:08:10Speaker 05

  He's a tiny bit heavier. He's a tiny bit.

• 1:08:13Bill Simmons?

  He doesn't look like a, a baby deer running around in the woods that's falling over half the time. Like, he doesn't, he's just moving fluidly. And there's some stuff he's added, like he has this crazy two-hand Shaq dunk now, where he thrusts his chest and groin into the guy's face, basically.

• 1:08:32Speaker 05

  Thrusting groins. It's been, it's been a, there's been a lot of innuendos, you know.

• 1:08:36Speaker 04

  No, no, no, he's French. What do you expect?

• 1:08:38Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. The three-point shot looks more fluid. I'm with you. I think he, I think he might be actually awesome. Like, he's 12 to win the MVP. I think it's like a real.

• 1:08:47Speaker 05

  He might be actually awesome.

• 1:08:48Bill Simmons?

  I'm saying like, he's already awesome.

• 1:08:50Speaker 05

  He's fucking awesome.

• 1:08:52Bill Simmons?

  I'm saying like MVP conversation, 12 to one, awesome.

• 1:08:54Speaker 05

  Yeah, he's in the MVP conversation. I said this last week on my pod, it's like, people are, keep saying like, well, if things go right, he could get the fringe of, no, he's in, he's gonna be in the MVP conversation.

• 1:09:03Bill Simmons?

  He's one of the best six players in the league. So to me, it's an automatic over. But we didn't mention one thing. You skipped over it. Cause you mentioned Cornet and Olynyk, and I think that's gonna be really important, that they actually have competent big guys that can play with him, that can come in when he's missing a game, whatever. I was thinking of a nickname for them house.

• 1:09:23Speaker 05

  Cornet Olynyk.

• 1:09:25Bill Simmons?

  I can offer you White Castles, Cracker Barrels, or the Mayonnaise Men.

• 1:09:33Bill Simmons?

  I like the mayonnaise man.

• 1:09:34Speaker 04

  Huh.

• 1:09:34Bill Simmons?

  Or just the mayo man.

• 1:09:35Speaker 04

  You're so sad that Cornet's not on the Celtics.

• 1:09:38Bill Simmons?

  I love Cornet.

• 1:09:38Speaker 04

  Are you over it? Are you like?

• 1:09:40Bill Simmons?

  Not only, I mean, my dad has really been inconsolable, but he was also like a great locker room, like really beloved personality guy.

• 1:09:48Speaker 04

  He would just make gestures on the court after random events.

• 1:09:50Bill Simmons?

  Really? Just a great teammate?

• 1:09:51Speaker 04

  Even the teammates were like, I don't know where, like what that signifies.

• 1:09:54Bill Simmons?

  But that's another thing with the Spurs. I think there's, I think the chemistry is gonna be awesome.

• 1:09:58Speaker 04

  I agree.

• 1:09:58Bill Simmons?

  Um, but we didn't mention one thing, and I think it's really important, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. And I, I think people just assumed he wasn't gonna be impactful this year, myself included. But watching some of the preseason, this is the only preseason team that I've actually watched multiple times. Plus, reading the stuff about the team and the, the quotes from people. I think Harper's gonna be good right away. I think he's gonna be actually impactful. And when you watch him, and he's, you know, he's a kid. He was a freshman in college last year. There's a comfort and an ease with how he plays that you just see immediately. He really knows where to go. He's got, he's patient already. He's big. He's not like this,

• 1:10:39Bill Simmons?

  you know, 19 year old guard coming in who's like, oh, man, when he grows into his body, like, he has the fucking body already. He's lefty. And I, I think there's something really special there potentially with him. And granted, I've only watched him a little bit, but to me, that is the X factor. I'm already counting in Wemby. It's the Harper piece.

• 1:10:56Speaker 04

  That's fine. And I'll just, I'm, I'm content with waiting to see it. I wanna say out loud, I know that Wemby played over 70 games his rookie year and then 46 last year. I don't need people saying, hey, you played 70. Well, I wanna see it post this kind of injury.

• 1:11:13Bill Simmons?

  He had a major medical issue and he's gigantic.

• 1:11:15Speaker 04

  That's what this is, is about. And I'll, I'll, um, reserve judgment on Dylan Harper, which feels fair.

• 1:11:20Bill Simmons?

  I also, I think there's a castle. Everybody forgot about me and I've worked really hard on my game and I'm really good too.

• 1:11:28Speaker 04

  I don't think that we, we forgot about. I mean, one rookie of the year. It's just like not that.

• 1:11:32Bill Simmons?

  It's not, not.

• 1:11:33Speaker 04

  It wasn't, it wasn't a well.

• 1:11:34Bill Simmons?

  When you talk about this team, you talk about Wemby, you talk about Dylan Harper, you talk about all the bench ads. And nobody's like, oh, they also have Castle, who was the best rookie last year.

• 1:11:41Speaker 05

  I think this is like a great landing spot for Dylan Harper. Everyone is fixated on like Fox and how does he fit timetables? Like he, when Fox is back. You can play Dylan Harper 15 minutes a game. You don't have to force feed him anything. You don't have to overdo it. You can stagger the minutes so that Fox is out, he's in, and Wemby's in at the same time because you're going to stagger and like make his life a little. I think it's a great spot for him. And I just want to say, did you guys see the highlight of Carter Bryant chase down block attempt where he's like, it's in the flow of the game and he jumps and his hand is above the square.

• 1:12:16Speaker 04

  They were measuring it. Yeah, I saw that.

• 1:12:18Speaker 05

  Like if this guy can give them anything on offense, he is such a freak and such an elite defender already. Like I'm tempering my excitement.

• 1:12:28Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's the thing.

• 1:12:29Speaker 04

  That's fine. I'm gonna lose. You guys are gonna win this one and I'm gonna lose it.

• 1:12:33Bill Simmons?

  I'm not just a hard over. I'm a fully erect over.

• 1:12:36Speaker 04

  I want you to know, the market moved. Like they were 44 and a half and people thought that was too rich. So that's it's settled at 43 and a half. And I'm just, you know, I'm gonna just temper my enthusiasm.

• 1:12:48Bill Simmons?

  There's a couple. There's one Fandow bet I wanted to mention. They're three to one to win 50 games. And I think, I think of all the teams that we're not thinking of as 50 win teams, this is the team that has the ceiling for me because like you just mentioned Carter Bryant. They have multiple athletes at these wing spots. I always think about it like if you're just on another team and you're looking at the schedule like, oh, where are we going this week on our road trip? And you, San Antonio is one of the teams. You're like, fuck. This is a.

• 1:13:19Speaker 04

  And they got, they got, they got stuff to trade. They got anything they need to trade.

• 1:13:23Bill Simmons?

  They have stuff to trade, which was the last piece of this house. They have all their own firsts.

• 1:13:28Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:13:28Bill Simmons?

  They have first swap with Atlanta this year, which might not matter. They have Atlanta's unprotected next year. They got some Boston, Dallas stuff. They have a swap with Sacramento in 31.

• 1:13:38Speaker 04

  Anything you got with Sacramento is always a golden ship.

• 1:13:41Bill Simmons?

  And they have some contract stuff to, you know, like they, they can put like Barnes with Kelton Johnson. If you want Vassell, like we'll talk about it. Like they could, they could pretty quickly add up to like a 40 to 45. Like this could be a marketing team. Um, this could be.

• 1:13:59Speaker 05

  They're on the list. They're on my marketing list.

• 1:14:01Speaker 04

  That's a good one.

• 1:14:01Bill Simmons?

  This could be an out of nowhere Jaylen Brown team.

• 1:14:03Speaker 05

  I mean, you can't, you can't even pencil in a better fit than marketing Wemba Yama. It's just if you have marketing Wemba Yama Fox, you are now loaded with like three 50 million dollar plus salaries.

• 1:14:14Bill Simmons?

  Harper was the one that flipped it for me, though. You just, you know, like, sometimes you know with this shit. That guy belongs on a basketball court with good players. I think there's something with him and Wemby that they, I mean, them getting, they didn't expect, when they traded for Fox, they didn't know they were getting the second pick. Right? I don't think they trade for Fox if they know they're getting the second pick. I think they probably saved the assets, even though that was a pretty fair trade for them. All right, next team. Wow, if you thought our boners were in full swing, the Dallas Mavericks over 40 and a half. They are plus 850 for the division. They are plus 108 for the playoffs, which might be my single favorite bet on the board. Not to tip my hand. They're 3943 last year.

• 1:14:58Bill Simmons?

  They lost Spencer Dinwiddie and they added D'Angelo Russell. They don't have Kyrie for probably two thirds of the season. They added Cooper Flag, who has a chance, Zach, to be the most impactful American rookie since Anthony Davis. And I think that's in play and I think it's going to happen.

• 1:15:15Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:15:18Bill Simmons?

  Over, under?

• 1:15:20Speaker 05

  Just flat out, you're asking me.

• 1:15:21Bill Simmons?

  Well, where do you want to start?

• 1:15:24Speaker 05

  The weird, this was the one that I struggled with the most. I mentioned to you after I left last night, when, before the commanders blew that game. Sorry.

• 1:15:32Speaker 04

  Come on, I thought we were new pod friends here.

• 1:15:36Speaker 05

  That I was going to go revisit, just make sure Adam locked in. This was the team that I was struggling the most with. It's a 40 and a half, it's like right, obviously right in the middle. Flag is going to be awesome. They're a weird team, like that trends super big, you know.

• 1:15:50Bill Simmons?

  I mean, they're just openly not starting a guard.

• 1:15:53Speaker 05

  Yeah, last night they're like, what if, yeah, what would it look like if we just don't even start D'Angelo Russell and we don't have Kyrie Irving and we don't really have another.

• 1:15:59Bill Simmons?

  What did they do? Flag, Washington, Gafford, Davis?

• 1:16:02Speaker 05

  It was a gigantic lineup.

• 1:16:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, everybody was like six, seven and up.

• 1:16:06Speaker 05

  And Klay is still here and got, you know, it's, it's a strange team. I am going under on 40 and a half.

• 1:16:14Speaker 04

  Okay.

• 1:16:14Speaker 05

  I'm stunned. Well, can I?

• 1:16:17Bill Simmons?

  You know what? You're not allowed on Cooper Flag Island.

• 1:16:21Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:16:21Speaker 05

  Not, not everything can be an island.

• 1:16:24Bill Simmons?

  You're not.

• 1:16:25Speaker 04

  An island is designed to be something with a limited population and a small territory.

• 1:16:29Bill Simmons?

  It's fair.

• 1:16:30Speaker 05

  All right, here, here's my case for, for, for this. These are Anthony Davis's games played.

• 1:16:36Speaker 04

  This is exactly the right.

• 1:16:37Speaker 05

  Sixty-two, this is from 2020 on.

• 1:16:39Bill Simmons?

  Oh, boy.

• 1:16:39Speaker 05

  Sixty-two, thirty-six, forty, fifty-six, seventy-six, fifty-one, forty-two. If it's fifty-five games or fifty games, they're going under. Like, they just, with Kyrie missing two-thirds of the season, nothing about flag, love flag, love their centers, love the PJ Washington deal, love some of their depth pieces, shout out Najee Marshall, like Max Christie, blah, blah. If they just don't get enough games out of Kyrie coming off a massive injury and AD, who I just read the game logs, I, I, forty-one wins in the West is a, is a bridge just a teeny bit too far for me.

• 1:17:13Bill Simmons?

  Wow. Boy, you, when you're talking about, uh, your concerns about Anthony Davis's durability, that's just right in the house wheelhouse. I think he was the first person ever to express concerns in America.

• 1:17:25Speaker 05

  Fully healthy, and I don't know if you can count on Kyrie full, they're, they're more a next year team than it is this year team because of Kyrie. Kyrie changes their team, obviously. Fully healthy, they're a scary motherfucking team in the playoffs. I'm just talking about getting through eighty-two games and winning more than half your games. It's, it's a, it's, if I have to get, plus, there's a sneaky, like, if this season is not going great and we do have injuries, this is the, one of the only years we control our first round pick in the next half decade. So I'm going, I'm just, enough is pulling me to under.

• 1:17:58Speaker 04

  Well, we know that they'll, they'll gladly tank down the stretch. I mean, we have recent memory to look at for that, uh, exercise. They, they, that's how they got Derek Lively.

• 1:18:09Speaker 04

  Man, this one is, is, is indeed, uh, the most difficult. Really, probably across the whole NBA.

• 1:18:16Bill Simmons?

  Davis thing.

• 1:18:17Speaker 04

  Cause the, yeah, I mean, we, Anthony, every other.

• 1:18:19Bill Simmons?

  If I told you AD was playing sixty-five games, you would go over, you wouldn't even think about it.

• 1:18:23Speaker 04

  No, not even think twice.

• 1:18:24Speaker 05

  He has, uh, played sixty-five games once since 2017, 18.

• 1:18:31Bill Simmons?

  So what are you doing, House?

• 1:18:34Speaker 04

  Over, because 40 and a half, this team with the size and the wings and the versatility, you're asking for a 500 team to get to the over. And I think Cooper Flag with 45 Anthony Davis games is enough for the over. I also think, here's the thing that I really regret. Karma, the basketball gods, should be on the side of an under, should be this team sucking ass this upcoming season as the, because I mean.

• 1:19:08Speaker 05

  But then they're in the lottery again with another chance.

• 1:19:11Speaker 04

  And they get, and with that chair, they get the 14th pick. That's, that's the karma that the basketball gods should reward.

• 1:19:18Bill Simmons?

  Counter, great trade. They traded Luka for Anthony Davis and Cooper Flag.

• 1:19:24Speaker 04

  Fuck me.

• 1:19:25Bill Simmons?

  I don't know, maybe Nico knew what he was doing.

• 1:19:26Speaker 05

  You see the vision.

• 1:19:27Bill Simmons?

  He saw the vision.

• 1:19:28Speaker 05

  You see it.

• 1:19:29Bill Simmons?

  He had the vision.

• 1:19:29Speaker 04

  This total dropping from 41 and a half to 48 and a half, put it right into my kisser and it's a 41 win team, so I'll take the over.

• 1:19:40Bill Simmons?

  I mentioned earlier the teams that the people look at the schedule and they're like, fuck, we're playing that team. I think Dallas is another example. This is just a long, scary team that's going to try really hard. Flag tries as hard as any rookie move coming in the league.

• 1:19:56Speaker 05

  I love Flag so much. It hurts me to go under for that reason.

• 1:19:58Bill Simmons?

  I just think they're going to have an intensity that's going to cover up some of like, okay, Davis isn't playing for four weeks. They're actually probably fine if he doesn't play for a couple of weeks because they have, they actually have big men depth. It's like, all right, fine, I guess we'll just play Gafford and Lively with Cooper Flag at power forward. We'll be okay.

• 1:20:18Speaker 05

  I think Lively is being slept on as like a potential leap guy. I just, the strangeness plus the injury risk plus the West just being loaded, I'm going like slight, slight under.

• 1:20:28Speaker 04

  It's very, it's very fair case. Who's going to shoot threes on this team and knock them down?

• 1:20:33Bill Simmons?

  Clay.

• 1:20:34Speaker 04

  Clay. That's, right.

• 1:20:37Bill Simmons?

  D-Lo, don't forget about first three months of the season, D-Lo. This is what he does.

• 1:20:41Speaker 04

  I'm okay with forgetting about him. You going over?

• 1:20:44Bill Simmons?

  I'm going hard over.

• 1:20:45Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:20:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I think this team's going to be good. I already bet on this.

• 1:20:49Bill Simmons?

  Is Anthony Davis the 21st century's most frustrating superstar? Or would you pick someone else? Granted, he's won a title.

• 1:20:55Speaker 04

  Just in basketball or in other sports?

• 1:20:57Bill Simmons?

  Basketball.

• 1:20:58Speaker 04

  Nobody's more frustrating than Joel Embiid.

• 1:21:01Bill Simmons?

  Oh, good. Good counter.

• 1:21:02Speaker 04

  Nobody's.

• 1:21:02Speaker 05

  Oh, you know what? That just, okay.

• 1:21:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:21:05Speaker 05

  I was gonna, I was gonna nominate Harden. But he's won multiple, he's won AMVP rather.

• 1:21:11Bill Simmons?

  Fair.

• 1:21:11Speaker 04

  And he's made it to a conference.

• 1:21:12Bill Simmons?

  It's Joel Embiid. You know, we, we talked about Dylan Harper. We talked. Yeah, Ben Simmons is up there too.

• 1:21:20Speaker 05

  Gilbert Arenas is pretty frustrating.

• 1:21:21Speaker 04

  He made an all NBA team. No, Gilbert Arenas just got hurt.

• 1:21:24Bill Simmons?

  Gilbert Arenas seemed like he was as good as Kobe for like a year and a half.

• 1:21:27Speaker 04

  No, maybe for three months.

• 1:21:31Bill Simmons?

  Flag and Harper. I just wanted to say this, that this draft is night and day from last year. Where last year, some of the guys like, like Reed Shepard was the third pick and just was like a G League player. We don't know if he's good or not. This year's draft, Flag has a chance to be like a transformative star. I think Harper is really special. Edgecombe is gonna be winning Twitter and NBA Reddit and Instagram. Ace Bailey, we are fascinated by. Houses dude Trey Johnson.

• 1:22:02Speaker 04

  Trey Johnson. He's gonna be good. God damn, we got the sixth fucking pick.

• 1:22:05Bill Simmons?

  He's gonna be a really, but he's gonna be an excellent scorer.

• 1:22:07Speaker 04

  He's gonna be great.

• 1:22:08Bill Simmons?

  But then all of these other like wings, these athletic wings that some of these teams have? I don't know. I think this draft's awesome.

• 1:22:13Speaker 05

  Did you intentionally skip over Bill Simmons 2028 Olympian Konk Nipple? Just, just left him, is, is he, is he above this discussion?

• 1:22:21Bill Simmons?

  I'm trying, I, I talked to my lawyers and they said, only talk about Con during the Charlotte part. Cause it's getting weird. So I, I try, I'm just trying to obey that. But yeah, he's another one though. He's gonna play 35 minutes a game.

• 1:22:32Speaker 04

  I think the kid in Toronto is gonna be sick.

• 1:22:35Bill Simmons?

  This is like, has a really, has a chance to be an all time. We'll look back six years from now and be like, oh my God. And we've had a couple of those drafts over the years, but I think this one. Be a really good one. Uh, Mipps, 39 and a half, dropped, was 40 and a half, went to 39 and a half. They've had some injuries. They traded Desmond Bain.

• 1:22:57Bill Simmons?

  They lost Cole Anthony. They lost Luke Kennard. They lost Huff. I know you're a Huff guy.

• 1:23:03Speaker 05

  I like Huff.

• 1:23:04Bill Simmons?

  Zach's already running out of steam. We got like 20 teams left.

• 1:23:07Speaker 05

  I'm going, I'm going. Another four hours to go. I don't, not enthusiastic about Jay Huff mentions.

• 1:23:12Bill Simmons?

  Ty Jerome, they added him.

• 1:23:13Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:23:14Bill Simmons?

  KCP.

• 1:23:15Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 1:23:15Bill Simmons?

  Landau. Cedric Coward, Bruno's guy. They're plus 154 for the playoffs. Plus 100 for the plan, which might be the bet of the year. And they have some injuries coming out of the gate and John Moran's already hurt. Should be okay at some point. First couple of weeks and yeah.

• 1:23:41Speaker 05

  Not just some injuries. Like it's not great when all your centers are hurt except for Doc Landau.

• 1:23:46Bill Simmons?

  Like. Edie's out for a while. Edie's out for a while. And it's one of those where it's like, no, he should be back in December. It's like, Willie, he's.

• 1:23:51Speaker 05

  Brandon Clark had like another thing, another surgery.

• 1:23:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:23:55Speaker 05

  Triple J's out for a bit. Yeah, it's not, it's not great. The number is like, this is on its, on the surface, a disrespectful number to a team that has won like 48 to 50, whatever games in the last few years. And they just seem to win. They just seem to punch above their weight in the regular season until of course they fell apart last year, could not beat any good teams down the stretch, plummeted down the standings, et cetera, et cetera. I think this is a really good number by Vegas. Cats off to Vegas because like 39 and a half, like, oh, that's like, they can't even, they can be under 500 and go over this number. I think that's appropriate, given their injury situation. This was a very tough one. This was another one of my very toughest, toughest picks. Pass.

• 1:24:33Speaker 04

  Totally agree with Zach. I'm going to play over because this team goes so goddamn hard at home. They play their asses off for that Memphis crowd. They have a chip on their shoulder perpetually. I think, say his name properly, Tomas Isalo.

• 1:24:49Speaker 05

  Tuamos Isolo.

• 1:24:51Speaker 04

  See that?

• 1:24:51Speaker 05

  Tuomas. It's tricky.

• 1:24:54Speaker 04

  Yeah, Isolo. Isolo. I think Coach Isolo. See, they, they lost a defensive identity. That was part of what contributed to them sucking ass down the stretch. They couldn't stop anybody. Their games, their overs in the last like 45 games, money in the bank. I love playing Memphis overs down the stretch last year. Um, I do think that, you know, if they can weather the storm with these injuries and have any injury luck whatsoever, when Triple J and Chris Vernon made this case, he makes it every single time we give him a, a, a microphone. When Triple J and Ja Morant play together, they win basketball games. And so what's our over or under for number of games that those two guys play? That sets the, that sets the.

• 1:25:37Speaker 05

  It's a fair que- that's a big question.

• 1:25:39Speaker 04

  That sets the, the, the, the total number. So we're asking for them to win half their games. I think they're gonna win half their games.

• 1:25:46Speaker 05

  I'm going, what would that number be? Over, under on how many games both Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Play 55 and a half?

• 1:25:53Bill Simmons?

  I mean, I would even. A hundred and five?

• 1:25:55Speaker 05

  No, but I'm saying together, they both play in the same game.

• 1:25:58Speaker 04

  There's 82 games and how many of those 82 do those guys play?

• 1:26:02Bill Simmons?

  Forty.

• 1:26:02Speaker 05

  You think it's in the 40s?

• 1:26:04Speaker 04

  See, I think it's worth, I think 60 ish is in play. So I think this is why I'm taking the slight over here.

• 1:26:09Bill Simmons?

  But you guys can't, you did, made the whole Anthony Davis case and then now, now these two are gonna be.

• 1:26:16Speaker 05

  I just said the over at 55 and a half. I thought it was low. You're going lower than me. Okay.

• 1:26:19Bill Simmons?

  I just don't trust the health of those guys.

• 1:26:21Speaker 05

  We're doing over unders within the over unders.

• 1:26:25Speaker 04

  It's an over under pod.

• 1:26:27Bill Simmons?

  Uh, the Edie thing I thought was really bad.

• 1:26:29Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:26:30Bill Simmons?

  Cause I feel like that's a half the year. And look, Bain was really good last year. I mean, he's a top 40 to 50 player in the league. Wherever you have him on your list, and they traded him for a bunch of, you know, a bunch of future stuff.

• 1:26:43Speaker 05

  KCP, I don't know what happened in Orlando last year where like literally no one could shoot, including the guy that they got to shoot.

• 1:26:50Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:26:50Speaker 05

  KCP is like a solid fifth starter. Like I feel good about his fit on the team. I like Scottie Pippen Jr. And Ty Jerome off the bench. That's like a good stabilizing bench backcourt. I'm going over with House here. I, I think the number just got too low. I'm going over.

• 1:27:04Bill Simmons?

  Okay. I went, I'm only going under because I felt like San Antonio, Dallas and Memphis, you can't do all three overs. And I already did my overs on San Antonio, Dallas.

• 1:27:15Speaker 05

  I went under on Dallas.

• 1:27:15Bill Simmons?

  I don't trust, I don't trust the health stuff. I thought though, the, the last 25, 30 games of last year were so bad, maybe more of an indication of who they are. And.

• 1:27:27Speaker 04

  Well, they fired the coach.

• 1:27:28Bill Simmons?

  I get it.

• 1:27:29Speaker 04

  There's, there's also some, uh.

• 1:27:33Speaker 05

  Like if this becomes the year from hell, 25 games into the season, what do you, what do you do about that if you're the Grizzlies?

• 1:27:40Bill Simmons?

  And they gave.

• 1:27:41Speaker 05

  There's some year for, there's some year from hell potential with the, starting off with this many.

• 1:27:45Bill Simmons?

  I mean, I, I could argue you already have the year from hell with all the injuries they've had.

• 1:27:48Speaker 05

  It was two years ago.

• 1:27:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:27:50Speaker 05

  That's true.

• 1:27:52Bill Simmons?

  I didn't, the Jaren Jackson extension was pricey. I know they had to do it, but.

• 1:27:57Speaker 05

  He's sick. He's sick. He's a sick ball player when he plays. I love him.

• 1:28:01Bill Simmons?

  Can he give me seven rebounds a game?

• 1:28:03Speaker 05

  That's not his, his, his game.

• 1:28:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, who's going to rebound for this team this year?

• 1:28:08Speaker 05

  Whenever those, those big guys.

• 1:28:10Bill Simmons?

  My boy, John Conchar. Yeah, I couldn't get there.

• 1:28:13Speaker 05

  Santi.

• 1:28:14Bill Simmons?

  Uh, I look forward to, uh, them starting out the season well, and then Verno sending me long angry texts about it.

• 1:28:20Speaker 05

  They do. I did. I went deep enough into the Memphis weeds that I looked at their first 15 games. It's a pretty soft first 15 games, which is another reason I went over. I was like, they should be able to survive this being like seven and eight after this, this amount of time.

• 1:28:34Bill Simmons?

  We're going to take a break and then we're going to talk about, uh, the most entertaining team in this conference from a conversation standpoint, the New Orleans Pelicans.

• 1:28:40Speaker 05

  Oh my God.

• 1:28:42Bill Simmons?

  All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows your live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you, so they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This episode is brought to you by Workday.

• 1:29:27Bill Simmons?

  Guessing is for game shows, not your business, especially when your margin for error is zero. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance and IT with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails. So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24/7 and the ability to not just get work done, but get it done right. It's a new Workday. As you could tell from this over/unders pod, I love betting NBA futures. One of my favorite things, gives you a little stake, not just in your team, but you can pick five, six, seven other teams, just kind of monitor their progress over the six month season. I like doing finals winners. I like doing pairings for the finals.

• 1:30:11Bill Simmons?

  I'm not allowed to bet on any of the awards because I have a vote, but the playoff stuff is really fun. Playing is kind of a fun one. Season leaders, you can bet on stuff like, well, Wemby have a quadruple double this year. You can bet on that on Fanduel. You can parlay stuff together. I love betting on Steph Curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games. Anyway, we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the over/under podcast. And then on Thursday night's podcast, we're going to be announcing our big super boost for the upcoming season. That will be Friday, 10/14 on Fanduel. Be ready. New Orleans Pelicans over 30 and a half.

• 1:30:54Bill Simmons?

  They had the first round pick. It's just gone. They lost it in a crypto scandal.

• 1:31:00Speaker 04

  Where did it go?

• 1:31:01Bill Simmons?

  They lost it. They invested in aspiration and lost their first round pick.

• 1:31:05Speaker 04

  What's the bushy head guy who's in jail? Sam Friedman?

• 1:31:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:31:09Speaker 04

  He took it.

• 1:31:09Bill Simmons?

  He took it. They, they invested in a movie studio that went bankrupt. It's just gone.

• 1:31:15Speaker 04

  They were trying to buy trees. They wanted some trees.

• 1:31:17Bill Simmons?

  No matter what happens with this team, they won't be able to draft to play off their success, which makes them an enticing over for 30 and a half because we've seen this every year. There's two teams that. They're not going to tank. Why would we tank? We have nothing to tank for. Let's play hard. Let's try to win. Uh, they added Jordan Poole, House's guy, who was actually like sneaky good last year. Kevon Looney, veteran. Siddiq Bay's back. They drafted Derek Queen, who's already hurt, Jeremiah Fears, who won't play until about 2030. They lost McCollum, Olenek and Bruce Brown.

• 1:31:53Speaker 05

  That was a, that was a very pointed shot.

• 1:31:56Bill Simmons?

  He's 18.

• 1:31:57Speaker 05

  Um, he's playing now. He's gonna play now.

• 1:32:00Bill Simmons?

  Okay. We'll see.

• 1:32:04Bill Simmons?

  Um, the question, Zach, is could they be this year's 2025 Hawks? A team that-

• 1:32:10Speaker 05

  This year is 2025. Last year's Hawks, this year's Hawks?

• 1:32:13Bill Simmons?

  Last year's Hawks. Last year's 2425 Hawks.

• 1:32:16Speaker 05

  What happened with them? Why are they?

• 1:32:17Bill Simmons?

  They didn't have their first round pick and they just gave a shit and tried. And even when Jalen Johnson got hurt, they were like, we're still going to try. We're not going to be resting anybody. We're still going to be going for it.

• 1:32:28Bill Simmons?

  And, and, uh, the addendum to that, did Skinny Zion suck you in at all?

• 1:32:33Speaker 05

  No.

• 1:32:33Bill Simmons?

  No?

• 1:32:35Speaker 05

  I mean, it's better than the alternative, but I'm not sitting here like, oh, I saw some photos, pencil in 70 Zion games. Like, I'm gonna pencil in, if I'm an optimist, I'm gonna pencil in 56 Zion games. Like, that's like, I'm not hoping for anything better than that.

• 1:32:50Bill Simmons?

  We should have done a games played draft.

• 1:32:53Speaker 05

  Did, save it.

• 1:32:54Bill Simmons?

  Where, where we-

• 1:32:55Speaker 05

  You, you have a podcast network.

• 1:32:57Bill Simmons?

  For Philly. No, we could, we could do that later.

• 1:32:59Speaker 05

  I can't wait for Philly.

• 1:33:00Speaker 04

  You guys, you guys do it.

• 1:33:01Speaker 05

  Well, Herb Jones played 20 last year. Murray played 31. He's gonna miss at least a big chunk of the season.

• 1:33:08Bill Simmons?

  And Murphy got hurt right before the season.

• 1:33:10Speaker 05

  Ingram, Ingram played 18.

• 1:33:15Speaker 05

  Yeah, it was, it was, no, Skinny Zion did not suck me into like, oh, everything's great now. They figured everything out. But your question is the interesting one. I talked to people around the league.

• 1:33:25Speaker 05

  You would think-

• 1:33:28Speaker 05

  The trade and all the flack they took for it would incentivize them to win, win, win, win, win at all costs. And Willie Green may be coaching for his job. Win, win, win at all costs. We have to save ourselves from embarrassment as a front office, save our job as a coaching staff. But also, the counter is, the front office is massively incentivized to show right away that Queen in particular is good. That Queen and Fears is good. Do you have, do they, do they love, do they put their thumb on the scale with the coaches? Like, you gotta give these guys major rotation roles because we gotta show they're good. Because if they, the more they play, rookies tend to not help you win games. So I think those, it's a fascinating.

• 1:34:05Speaker 04

  Wow. So this is, this is another situation where the front office and the coaching staff, maybe not on the same page.

• 1:34:12Speaker 05

  Well, maybe the front offices knew they didn't hire the coaching staff.

• 1:34:15Speaker 04

  Great point. Great point.

• 1:34:17Bill Simmons?

  I mean, Willie making it through last year was kind of a miracle. I certainly didn't agree with it.

• 1:34:21Speaker 04

  They won 49 games the year before that.

• 1:34:23Speaker 05

  So, so Queens hurt to start the year.

• 1:34:26Bill Simmons?

  Yes.

• 1:34:26Speaker 05

  If they're like a frisky eight and nine when he comes back, or whatever the timetable is for his return, does he get gifted 25 minutes a game because he's Derek Weenan? We made this massive swing for him? Or does Willie Green have the leeway to be like, hey, man, sorry, we're kind of rolling. We'll spot you six, seven minutes at the end of the first half and see what goes from there, you know?

• 1:34:46Bill Simmons?

  House, let me give you the rotation. Missy, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, Poole.

• 1:34:54Speaker 05

  Looney's gonna start over Missy.

• 1:34:56Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:34:56Speaker 04

  Which I like. Adult, adult in the room. Set screens, get rebounds, make the right reads. I like it.

• 1:35:01Bill Simmons?

  So Looney, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones and Poole. It's a professional basketball team.

• 1:35:07Speaker 05

  Sure is. And the guys on the bench.

• 1:35:09Bill Simmons?

  Missy, Alvarado, Hawkins, who I just continue to like. I would have been trying to trade for him the last two years. Queen when he comes back, Murray when he comes back, Fears.

• 1:35:21Bill Simmons?

  I mean, they, they have.

• 1:35:22Speaker 05

  I like, I like Bay.

• 1:35:23Bill Simmons?

  And Bay, if he's, I haven't seen him yet.

• 1:35:25Speaker 05

  He's playing, he's playing okay in the preseason.

• 1:35:27Bill Simmons?

  Like, that's a lot of basketball players have.

• 1:35:29Speaker 04

  I agree. I, I, I'll just come out, I'm an over on this team. I think the way the incentives run and, um, you know, Willie Green, they were, they won 49 games two years ago and 42 games the year before that. And that's with all of the Zion, you know, how many games is he playing? Situation. They have a lot of dudes and they have, uh, the capacity to be an, a pretty intense defensive team. And you're only asking them to win 31 games.

• 1:35:58Bill Simmons?

  31 and 51.

• 1:36:00Speaker 04

  Over.

• 1:36:01Bill Simmons?

  And you're like this.

• 1:36:02Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:36:03Bill Simmons?

  Um, I have a confession. I have two confessions for you guys. I kind of like the Jordan Poole trade, the more I looked at it.

• 1:36:11Speaker 05

  For Washington?

• 1:36:13Bill Simmons?

  For both teams.

• 1:36:14Speaker 05

  Okay. Um, I love it for Washington. I still find it inexplicable for the Pelicans.

• 1:36:19Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna try to explain it. Wait, are they ever signing a free agent ever in a million years?

• 1:36:26Speaker 05

  Okay, continue.

• 1:36:28Bill Simmons?

  Poole has this year and the next year.

• 1:36:30Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:36:32Bill Simmons?

  Poole, I think for the team they have is probably a better fit than expiring CJ McCollum, who they're not going to trade for future pieces anyway, because they already lost their first round pick. And then Poole's an expiring a year from now. I thought Poole was really competent last year and House and I had talked about him a bunch of times where it was like, this guy's like a good offensive player.

• 1:36:51Speaker 04

  He could help a team down the stretch. He can help a team that needs the, a boost scoring wise. You just really have to tell that dude, here's the role. Don't let him think that he's in charge of anything.

• 1:37:03Bill Simmons?

  Right. That there's no big three. He's not on T-shirts with Zion.

• 1:37:07Speaker 04

  Don't roll and say, oh, we're rolling the ball out, Jordan. Go ahead and do your thing. No, no, no, no.

• 1:37:12Speaker 05

  They also got, they also got Bay in that trade who I.

• 1:37:16Bill Simmons?

  Right. Who we all liked for a while and then it got hurt.

• 1:37:18Speaker 04

  I was hoping he was gonna be able to play for Washington.

• 1:37:20Bill Simmons?

  I have another confession for you guys. There's a couple Pelicans starting fives I really like. How about center Zion with Murphy, Jones, Hawkins and Poole? I want to see that for five minutes.

• 1:37:31Speaker 05

  The opposing offense is also dying to see that for.

• 1:37:35Bill Simmons?

  I didn't say I was going to win with it. I just thought it'd be entertaining. And then Missy, Murphy, Jones, Hawkins and point forward Zion, no guards. When they do the point forward Zion thing, that'll be fun.

• 1:37:45Speaker 05

  That's what makes me a little nervous is not, we know Zion's health is always going to be an issue. They really need like more point Zion than they've ever needed before with any team. Cause you just said, I don't want Jordan Poole in charge of the whole machine for too long.

• 1:38:00Bill Simmons?

  Nope.

• 1:38:00Speaker 05

  McCollum gone, Murray gone for at least part of the season. Alvarado is a good backup. Fears is a rookie, like they're going to need not only Zion to play, but to run more of the offense than he's ever run.

• 1:38:11Bill Simmons?

  Sounds great. I like when he does that.

• 1:38:13Speaker 05

  Well, does his body like when he does that? Like it, everything takes a toll, right?

• 1:38:17Bill Simmons?

  He's taking things seriously now.

• 1:38:18Speaker 05

  You're going, you're going playoffs.

• 1:38:20Bill Simmons?

  I am going over 30. I think they win between 31 and 35 games.

• 1:38:24Speaker 05

  Me too, me too. So you win the, you win the bet.

• 1:38:27Bill Simmons?

  I win the bet.

• 1:38:28Speaker 05

  We are all over. The number is too low. Too much talent for this to be 30 and a half.

• 1:38:32Bill Simmons?

  One Pelicans point quickly.

• 1:38:36Bill Simmons?

  Remember when they had this war chest of picks and we were like, wow, the Pelicans, all these picks. No war chest. The war chest is empty.

• 1:38:47Bill Simmons?

  They have their own first in 2832. They have that 26 first is going to Atlanta. And then they have a Bucks or New Orleans first. The worst goes to Atlanta. They get to keep the best one in 27.

• 1:39:02Speaker 05

  The thing I, I have to remind myself all the time from that Queen trade. That they traded their, the best of those two picks to Atlanta. Is Milwaukee still gets the other one, like New Orleans just gets nothing. Like Milwaukee gets the lesser of their own and the, and the Pelicans picks. Like it's, it's.

• 1:39:22Bill Simmons?

  The most unfounding decision.

• 1:39:24Speaker 05

  Atlanta might get into the lottery with two bites at the apple. Like if the season goes badly for Milwaukee.

• 1:39:30Bill Simmons?

  A major trade piece with that pick. All right, we're going to the Pacific.

• 1:39:34Speaker 05

  Oh yeah.

• 1:39:36Bill Simmons?

  Where the LA Clippers were the second highest favorites in this division.

• 1:39:41Bill Simmons?

  And then LeBron had some back issues. And the odds flipped and the Clippers jumped two spots or two wins to 49.5.

• 1:39:51Speaker 05

  They're up to 49 and a half.

• 1:39:52Speaker 04

  They sure are.

• 1:39:53Bill Simmons?

  Forty nine and a half.

• 1:39:54Speaker 05

  Ooh, nearly.

• 1:39:56Bill Simmons?

  They are plus 130 for the division. Now they're the favorites. They are 16-1 for the title.

• 1:40:03Bill Simmons?

  Minus 600 for the playoffs. Last year they were 15-32. They lost Powell, Coffey and Eubanks. And added John Collins, Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez and Chris Paul.

• 1:40:15Bill Simmons?

  They also added a pretty annoying offseason scandal that still has not been resolved. Zach, how hilarious would it be if the Clippers won the 2026 title? I'm gonna give you some of the things that would happen from that.

• 1:40:28Speaker 04

  I mean, I.

• 1:40:29Bill Simmons?

  The Kawhi trade will have worked out. James Harden would get off the hump. Chris Paul would get a ring. Bradley Beal would be a cult hero. And Steve Ballmer would go from embattled Clippers owner Steve Ballmer to an absolutely crazed guy holding the trophy and screaming like a fucking maniac. Those are all things, on top of all the other things, like the Clippers have never been to finals before. Anyway, I think it would be hilarious.

• 1:40:54Speaker 04

  It's a double legacy button.

• 1:40:56Bill Simmons?

  It's a true.

• 1:40:57Speaker 04

  It's two.

• 1:40:57Bill Simmons?

  Legacy buttons everywhere.

• 1:40:58Speaker 04

  It's legacy buttons. It's Harden's legacy.

• 1:41:00Bill Simmons?

  Chris Paul.

• 1:41:01Speaker 04

  It's Kawhi's legacy. It's Chris Paul getting the chip.

• 1:41:05Bill Simmons?

  Kawhi titles on three teams.

• 1:41:06Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:41:06Speaker 05

  Kawhi's legacy is really gonna be incredible. Like two-time finals MVP. And just all the injury, mistime, mystery, controversy.

• 1:41:20Bill Simmons?

  Arguably should have been the finals MVP for OKC last year.

• 1:41:24Speaker 05

  Wow.

• 1:41:26Bill Simmons?

  I would have voted for him. I didn't get a vote.

• 1:41:28Speaker 04

  So rude.

• 1:41:28Bill Simmons?

  Imagine that?

• 1:41:31Bill Simmons?

  Seven SGA votes and a vote for Kawhi Leonard.

• 1:41:33Speaker 05

  What about Paul George doesn't even get any votes?

• 1:41:36Bill Simmons?

  I guess he could have.

• 1:41:39Bill Simmons?

  Anyway, 49 and a half for the deepest kind of veteraness-y team in the league seemed low to me and I'm just a I have to go over on this. I do that knowing that Kawhi Leonard's on this team. What do you have, Zach?

• 1:41:59Speaker 05

  I mentioned how I went under on the Nuggets because I can't go over on everybody in the West.

• 1:42:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:42:05Speaker 05

  I like all these teams, love their depth. Harden, love him, hate him, look forward to his game seven shit burgers, whatever. The dude is a regular season wins machine who plays all the time. Which is, which is the best possible insurance for whatever happens with Kawhi. Like I, I can at least, I know I can hand him the offense. They have depth. I was gonna go over forty eight and a half. If I'm going over forty eight and a half, I should go over forty nine and a half. I'm over, I'm over. The age really makes me nervous.

• 1:42:33Bill Simmons?

  You seem really excited about it.

• 1:42:34Speaker 05

  Like Bogdanovich is already a little banged up. CP's ancient, you know, like.

• 1:42:39Bill Simmons?

  It is one of those on paper versus the actual. Cause if you go through, it's like, well, Chris Paul's over forty. Brook Lopez kinda looked like, you know, on the, on the last legs of being a productive rotation guy last year.

• 1:42:53Speaker 05

  Zoo, Zoo plays every game and plays a tons of, ton of minutes.

• 1:42:56Bill Simmons?

  You mean my thirteen all NBA?

• 1:42:58Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:42:58Bill Simmons?

  Pick last year's zoo?

• 1:42:59Speaker 05

  Perfect spot for.

• 1:43:00Bill Simmons?

  Deserved it too. I also think they actually have a little bit of a home court advantage now, which is the opposite of where they've been forever. There's like good energy at these games. In the aspiration dome.

• 1:43:10Speaker 05

  Little bit of us, us, us against the world energy now.

• 1:43:12Bill Simmons?

  Oh, especially now. I mean, the, the league's trying to bring down the Clippers. What do you have, House?

• 1:43:17Speaker 05

  Uh, this team won fifty one games in twenty twenty three, twenty four, fifty games last year and a total under fifty? Sign me the fuck up. I will take the over. Thank you, sir.

• 1:43:28Bill Simmons?

  We all went over on the Clippers at forty nine and a half. That's not a small number, forty nine and a half in the West.

• 1:43:33Speaker 05

  This is with Ty Lou, with this group, this is, these are professional basketball players. Who's the chump on this team?

• 1:43:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that, one thing I like, the Collins piece I really like because I always felt like when Kawhi wasn't in there, they'd always, just felt like Batum was the only kind of tall wing with size that they, that they had.

• 1:43:51Speaker 05

  He shot forty percent from three last year, didn't he?

• 1:43:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, and Utah basically had to trade Collins because he was too good for them.

• 1:43:57Speaker 05

  He's become the most underrated player in the NBA. I think John Collins is good. I think he's gonna be good for the Clippers.

• 1:44:02Bill Simmons?

  Good for the Clippers.

• 1:44:03Speaker 05

  Like, I don't think he's, I don't know if he's gonna start or come off the bench. They've been a little cagey about that. It seems like he's gonna come off the bench. They'll start Derrick Jones Jr. Cause they want someone to guard the best wings on the other team and not have that someone be Kawhi, which I get. But he needs to play a lot, John Collins. I think he fills, checks a lot of boxes for them. He's, he's wildly underrated. I have him. At least, or young in his prime, at least on this team, he's like a baby.

• 1:44:27Bill Simmons?

  I had the OKC Denver drop Clippers and then I would add Houston. I would add a three A, three B, three C with Houston Clippers, Minnesota. And I think Houston can't be in there anymore because of the bamboo thing. So I would say Minnesota Clippers three A, three B for me.

• 1:44:44Speaker 05

  I'm stunned we all went over on the Clippers. I'm stunned.

• 1:44:46Bill Simmons?

  They have so much talent.

• 1:44:48Speaker 05

  It's a big number and they're so old.

• 1:44:49Speaker 04

  They were really good in the playoffs. Also, I gotta hit the legacy button for Brad Beal. This is a chance for Brad.

• 1:44:54Speaker 05

  They were really good in the playoffs?

• 1:44:57Speaker 04

  I know the way that they wait, the matchup wise, I like the way that they matched up. I understand the outcome.

• 1:45:02Bill Simmons?

  I thought they played Denver great.

• 1:45:04Speaker 05

  They did.

• 1:45:04Bill Simmons?

  They were right.

• 1:45:05Speaker 05

  They should have won that series.

• 1:45:06Speaker 04

  No, I know, I know.

• 1:45:07Speaker 05

  You get no flowers from me.

• 1:45:08Bill Simmons?

  But they should have won in six.

• 1:45:09Speaker 05

  Yes, well, they didn't. You get no flowers from me for that. When you embarrass yourself in game seven.

• 1:45:14Bill Simmons?

  Hot take, I thought they were third best team in the league last year. I really did.

• 1:45:19Speaker 05

  And yet, would you ever trust them in a game seven on the road?

• 1:45:21Bill Simmons?

  No, I wouldn't trust them at all, but I think they can win 50 games.

• 1:45:23Speaker 04

  We all make money that way. We wait till they get to game seven, then we make money.

• 1:45:26Speaker 05

  Look, I took the over, so I'm stunned. No one went just aggressively like too old scandal, under, boom. No, I thought there was like a sitting there for you to just like make fun of the Clippers for 10 minutes.

• 1:45:38Bill Simmons?

  With the way they care about the environment through aspiration.

• 1:45:41Speaker 04

  That's it. All the trees. All the trees.

• 1:45:44Bill Simmons?

  Trees have been planted thanks to the Clippers.

• 1:45:46Speaker 05

  Think about that.

• 1:45:47Bill Simmons?

  You love the wall. Do you like the wall?

• 1:45:49Speaker 04

  The wall's good.

• 1:45:49Bill Simmons?

  The wall's good.

• 1:45:50Speaker 04

  We went over on the Clippers, all three of us.

• 1:45:52Speaker 05

  Remember when he, Ballmer flew the wall, the core, the inner circle of the wall to Denver for game seven?

• 1:45:58Bill Simmons?

  It's a sad flight home.

• 1:46:00Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:46:01Bill Simmons?

  No, I think, look, a lot would have to go wrong for this to go under.

• 1:46:06Speaker 05

  I don't think that much has to go wrong.

• 1:46:08Bill Simmons?

  But I'm saying like you'd have a 30 game Kawhi season.

• 1:46:11Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:46:12Bill Simmons?

  You would have to have Chris Paul and Lopez are just washed. You would have to have Beal being 10 games in like, I signed here because I thought I'd be a bigger part of everything that's happening. And it's, I guess I'll have to get used to my new role.

• 1:46:26Speaker 04

  I'm waiting for you to say something that's like wildly implausible.

• 1:46:31Bill Simmons?

  All right.

• 1:46:33Speaker 04

  You said over.

• 1:46:36Bill Simmons?

  Zubots would have to not be as durable. I don't know.

• 1:46:39Speaker 04

  Zubots getting hurt fucks this up. That's for sure. Undoubtedly without.

• 1:46:42Bill Simmons?

  I just think they have defense.

• 1:46:43Speaker 04

  That pick and roll with Harden was fucking awesome.

• 1:46:46Bill Simmons?

  The thing they didn't totally have last year that I think they have this year is like different kinds of lineups depending on who they're playing. But I, I felt like, I just thought they played OKC so well last year. It was the one team that I felt like was like boxing, could go toe to toe with OKC and really move around the ring with them. Um, all right. The Lakers dropped from 49 and a half to 47 and a half. They added, uh, Deandre and Jake Loravia and whatever version of Marcus Smart this is going to be. They lost Finney Smith. They lost Goodwin, who I kind of liked.

• 1:47:22Bill Simmons?

  They're plus 220 for the division, 16 and one for the title, which is ludicrous. And, uh, I guess the, the question for me when LeBron comes back, can you actually be a contender? When you have to hide your three best guys on defense?

• 1:47:41Bill Simmons?

  That's the part I can't wrap my head around with this team. Their three best guys are all people you would attack if you're the other team on defense at this point. LeBron can have those moments when he looks like Miami LeBron for two seconds, but for the most part.

• 1:47:54Speaker 04

  He was pretty dialed in for like a two month stretch last year.

• 1:47:57Bill Simmons?

  He's gonna be a year older and now he has some sort of herniated disc, whatever makes me nervous.

• 1:48:04Bill Simmons?

  I, uh, I'll just spoil my pick right now. I'm under for this. I, I think I have them in like the 44 to 46 range.

• 1:48:11Speaker 04

  Shocker. I know.

• 1:48:12Bill Simmons?

  Shocker. The Lakers, the Lakers hate.

• 1:48:15Speaker 04

  Exactly. Cause can't believe that.

• 1:48:17Bill Simmons?

  How dare both of you?

• 1:48:18Speaker 04

  Enthusiasm.

• 1:48:19Speaker 05

  We came to your house.

• 1:48:21Bill Simmons?

  I went way over on them two years ago and they, I think they might've, they, we crushed on it.

• 1:48:26Speaker 04

  The challenge for me, Zach Lowe, is there used to be a rule, we used to have a rule that you just can't go under 46 or 47 games when one of the game's five best players are on a team, right?

• 1:48:40Bill Simmons?

  So we're right on the cusp here at the 46 and a half. I thought the same thing.

• 1:48:43Speaker 05

  We're down to 46 and a half?

• 1:48:46Bill Simmons?

  I'm sorry, 47 and a half.

• 1:48:47Speaker 04

  It's 47 and a half. So Luca, skinny Luca. Luca with an agenda. This team is Luca's team. This is his season to make his mark. The true welcome to Los Angeles because they went out so feebly in the playoffs. And that wasn't, that's Luca can, you know, wipe that dirt off his shoulders. This team is his team. It's going to succeed or fail with him. I am taking the under because I don't have a defensive identity for this team. I can't come up with the defense for this team.

• 1:49:23Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:49:24Speaker 04

  I go through the, the, the personnel. I don't know. Nobody jumps off the page and also I can't over emphasize the respect for the LeBron. I don't think sciatica is, is not like, oh, it's this thing that gets fixed. Here's the fix for sciatica. No, no, no, no, no. Not when you're 41 years old. This is going to be a persistent problem all season long. If you want to do over under for games played for LeBron James and, and I'll set it, I'll set it at 30 and a half.

• 1:49:55Speaker 05

  Wow.

• 1:49:56Speaker 04

  I'll set it at 30 and a half for LeBron James. Well, here's the thing. The, the important thing is for him to play in the playoffs. So.

• 1:50:03Speaker 05

  Got to get there. In the West, you got to get there. You can't have these conversations in the West if you, for one of these teams like, oh, we get to the playoffs. That doesn't exist in the West.

• 1:50:10Speaker 04

  But that's, that's Luca's role.

• 1:50:11Bill Simmons?

  Playing exists. Yeah. Luca by himself is 42 wins.

• 1:50:14Speaker 04

  He better, he better be.

• 1:50:15Speaker 05

  What do you think the most regular season wins, uh, uh, Luca Mavericks team ever got was?

• 1:50:22Bill Simmons?

  Was low 50s, right?

• 1:50:23Speaker 05

  52.

• 1:50:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:50:24Speaker 04

  This is why I said it.

• 1:50:25Bill Simmons?

  They had a couple of under 40. What was the year?

• 1:50:27Speaker 05

  They made the finals 50 wins.

• 1:50:30Bill Simmons?

  But they had the one year when they, when they got lively.

• 1:50:33Speaker 05

  Uh, that was a tank year. So they went, uh, 38 and 44.

• 1:50:37Speaker 04

  And how many of those games did he miss though?

• 1:50:39Bill Simmons?

  I don't think he missed as many as. Didn't like he was playing most of that time.

• 1:50:45Speaker 05

  All right, well Lakers fans, I'll be on the island by myself. I'm going over forty seven and a half. The line dropped to a point where I felt comfortable doing it.

• 1:50:53Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:50:53Speaker 05

  Uh, I trust Luca, I trust Reeves. I think they have, I think they have better depth this year. I think LeBron will play more than what you just said, but who the hell knows? I've never had sciatica before. It sounds awful.

• 1:51:06Speaker 05

  Fifty wins last year, expected wins forty five. Won a lot of clutch games, got some opposing, the opponent shooting luck from three.

• 1:51:13Bill Simmons?

  They also had some crazy schedule stuff where they, it felt like over and over again, they were playing some team where their best guy wasn't playing or two guys were missing. So yeah, I didn't feel like they were fifty.

• 1:51:23Speaker 05

  Well, and to, and to lean into your, your Lakers, uh, exceptionalism thing. They, they will lead the league in free throw rate every year and never get called for any fouls. So I feel like I'm starting every game ahead five zero.

• 1:51:35Speaker 04

  They certainly have the right head coach for that.

• 1:51:36Bill Simmons?

  Great point.

• 1:51:37Speaker 05

  I'm going over forty, I don't feel, I like, this feels like optimistic. I don't think, like, I wouldn't go fifty on this team, but I can see forty nine or forty eight. So I'm gonna go barely, barely over.

• 1:51:49Bill Simmons?

  So part of my case for, if there was like real urgency with this season with them, I might feel differently about it, but this feels like such a transition season in so many ways.

• 1:51:59Speaker 05

  That's the, the smart money is on the under because they have a little bit to trade now, but they have more to trade later and they have the cap room thing looming like that's.

• 1:52:08Bill Simmons?

  And they've been very clear, like twenty seven.

• 1:52:11Speaker 05

  Uh, yeah, we got them.

• 1:52:13Bill Simmons?

  Yes. Hour and a half in, we finally broke Zach. He's got real regret about a pick.

• 1:52:19Speaker 05

  I'm sticking, I'm sticking with it. I'm not, I'm not letting.

• 1:52:21Speaker 04

  What's going on with the ownership group? Like in, in the sense of directionally? Bill Simmons has his hand up.

• 1:52:27Bill Simmons?

  This is part of my thing. I think this is a really tumultuous year for them. You have the ownership group where a lot of stuff has not come out yet about what's going on with the kids and I can't wait to see who does that.

• 1:52:39Speaker 04

  The bus kids.

• 1:52:39Bill Simmons?

  The bus kids, the sale, like there's a lot of acrimony all over the place. I feel very comfortable saying that. Second.

• 1:52:45Speaker 05

  Ford, it was a four to two vote among the siblings. That means two said no.

• 1:52:48Bill Simmons?

  Second, you have LeBron. Who did all the stuff last summer.

• 1:52:54Speaker 05

  I know. We got him. His head is in his hands.

• 1:52:56Bill Simmons?

  With like, we'll be monitoring this. We'll see if they want to be competitive. And meanwhile, he has, he has nowhere to go. And he's never been in a situation before. He's been on somebody else's team. And now House made the point, I had sciatica. I had all kinds of backstab in 03 and 04. I was working for Jimmy Kimmel Show. We would have the writers meetings and I would just lie on the floor because I couldn't sit in a chair. Like when it goes down to your knees and your feet, it's a whole other, it, it does not just heal in two weeks. Like it's, it's, and I don't care how much technology you have.

• 1:53:26Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:53:27Bill Simmons?

  It's like every hit he takes, he's going to feel it. And on top of it, he doesn't have a contract next year. So you have that. You have Rui isn't expiring. You've Gabe Benson is expiring. Max Eight is an expiring. I don't feel like they're going to use future assets to try to upgrade. I think they want to just get to 27 and see what's going on with Yanis. See what's going on with whoever the other stars are.

• 1:53:48Speaker 05

  Part, which was the Luca extension. They did that thing. That was the important thing.

• 1:53:52Bill Simmons?

  Just go nuts this year. Score 33, 34, 35 a game. Do your thing. A year from now, we're going to go all in. They gave JJ. How about the suspicious JJ extension? Guy, guy was hired a year ago as the head coach. He got an extension. Why did he get an extension? Because they're telling him like, we don't care if we're a contender this year.

• 1:54:09Speaker 05

  Did a good job.

• 1:54:11Bill Simmons?

  I don't think they care if they're a contender this year.

• 1:54:14Speaker 05

  You don't think Connect was the steal of the 2024 draft anymore?

• 1:54:19Bill Simmons?

  I think most of the guys they have can't play defense. And I would include Marcus Smart, who I think can guard bigger guys, but has no chance against point guards anymore. Vanderbilt's going to have to guard everybody in the other team. And we need to mention Deandre Ayton.

• 1:54:32Speaker 05

  This is the most fired up you've gotten the entire podcast.

• 1:54:35Bill Simmons?

  I just think they have so many variables. Like Deandre Ayton, two teams with Deandre Ayton have said, please take him. Like you can have him. It's, he's like a couch that people are just trying to get rid of. So I see on paper.

• 1:54:48Speaker 05

  He's already been, he's already been a suitcase and a couch in this podcast.

• 1:54:52Bill Simmons?

  Through furniture. I just don't think they, they care about this year.

• 1:54:56Speaker 05

  Are they over 500?

• 1:54:58Bill Simmons?

  I think they're Luca, they have to be between 42 and 45.

• 1:55:02Speaker 05

  Don't be disrespectful to Luca.

• 1:55:03Bill Simmons?

  I think they're an above 510.

• 1:55:04Speaker 05

  I'm not being disrespectful. I'm taking the over. You guys are not talking me out of it. I came in here with my convictions. I stick with my convictions.

• 1:55:10Speaker 04

  That a boy, that a boy.

• 1:55:11Bill Simmons?

  I think 48 and 34 is really hard, especially if I don't know how many games LeBron's playing.

• 1:55:17Speaker 04

  That's it. 47 and 35 because the.

• 1:55:19Bill Simmons?

  So I'm an under.

• 1:55:20Speaker 04

  I set my number.

• 1:55:21Bill Simmons?

  I'm an under, but I do think there's possible year from hell potential.

• 1:55:26Speaker 05

  Lakers, nobody believes in you. Nobody believes in the 2025, 26 Lakers. Luca, nobody believes in fit Luca.

• 1:55:32Speaker 04

  There's gotta be karma one way or the other.

• 1:55:34Speaker 05

  Fit Luca.

• 1:55:35Speaker 04

  Fit Luca. I love.

• 1:55:36Bill Simmons?

  Well, here's the other thing with that. I was thinking about this too. What's like the best case scenario for their season? Like 50 wins, 49 and 33?

• 1:55:44Speaker 05

  There's a best case scenario where they can win 52, 53 games. But I mean, you're talking best case. Best case means LeBron's healthier than we expect. They get lucky and close games. That would be fine. I'm over.

• 1:55:54Speaker 04

  I'm over.

• 1:55:55Speaker 05

  I like.

• 1:55:55Bill Simmons?

  So here's another thing.

• 1:55:57Speaker 04

  I want to be clear. I like to watch LeBron play.

• 1:55:59Bill Simmons?

  This was a, there could only be one at 47 and a half, and you had to go over with one and under and the other. And our next team, the Golden State Warriors, 47 and a half is the same number.

• 1:56:09Speaker 05

  We just transitioned right to the Warriors?

• 1:56:11Speaker 04

  What's wrong with that? They're in the same division.

• 1:56:13Speaker 05

  I understand. I'm just, I'm fired up now because you guys are just the East Coast bias.

• 1:56:18Bill Simmons?

  You have to be on the side. It's fine.

• 1:56:19Speaker 05

  East Coast bias.

• 1:56:21Bill Simmons?

  Golden State 47 and a half. I don't think you could take over for Golden State and the Lakers.

• 1:56:27Speaker 05

  Why?

• 1:56:27Bill Simmons?

  You have to pick one.

• 1:56:29Speaker 05

  You know, who has two thumbs? You know, who has two thumbs and took under for the Denver Nuggets for this exact reason? This guy right here. So you don't get to tell me what I can do on your own podcast.

• 1:56:37Bill Simmons?

  That's fair.

• 1:56:38Speaker 04

  Fair enough.

• 1:56:38Speaker 05

  God damn.

• 1:56:40Bill Simmons?

  Plus 220 for the division, Golden State. 27 to one for the title. Same odds as the Atlanta Hawks.

• 1:56:46Speaker 05

  Ah.

• 1:56:48Bill Simmons?

  Minus 420 for the playoffs. Plus 130 for the play in house.

• 1:56:52Speaker 05

  Now I'm fired up.

• 1:56:53Speaker 04

  Plus 130 for the play.

• 1:56:55Bill Simmons?

  They lost Looney. They added Al Horford, the most beloved Celtic teammate probably in the history of the franchise. And they added Seth Curry.

• 1:57:05Bill Simmons?

  They have a veteran, good karma, good personality, professional team and Jonathan Kaminga.

• 1:57:13Speaker 04

  Tell me who Jonathan Kaminga is on this team in whenever they decide to trade him. Who's it gonna be? Cause Jonathan Kaminga, I don't, there's no, they're not entering the playoffs in April of 2026 with Jonathan Kaminga.

• 1:57:28Bill Simmons?

  I had that as one of my questions. Where is he playing in February? Because it won't be a Golden State.

• 1:57:34Speaker 04

  I earnestly asked that question because it will help me determine. I, this is, I have a, a big question mark. I don't know what to do with this team.

• 1:57:40Speaker 05

  I, I went through all, I went through all the fake Kaminga trades last week. And I don't remember what they all were off the top of my head, but it was actually kinda hard to find one that was realistic.

• 1:57:52Speaker 04

  Is marketing not realistic?

• 1:57:54Bill Simmons?

  Marketing's realistic for me.

• 1:57:56Speaker 05

  It would have to, it would have to be Kaminga and everything else. Remember he's got that weird base year compensation thing where his salary counts differently for the Warriors than it does for the team that gets him, which is tricky.

• 1:58:07Speaker 04

  Doesn't that help with marketing? Cause marketing is expensive, isn't it?

• 1:58:10Speaker 05

  I feel like it never helps.

• 1:58:13Bill Simmons?

  Well, so right now they would, they would be starting, I would guess Draymond with Kaminga, Butler, Podzemski and Curry. Horford, Heald, Moody, Jackson Davis, GP2 and Post off the bench. But they have contracts they can put together. They have all their picks and.

• 1:58:33Speaker 05

  Except one, which they owe you guys.

• 1:58:36Bill Simmons?

  Frisky.

• 1:58:36Speaker 04

  Yeah, let's go.

• 1:58:37Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:58:37Speaker 04

  That's the Jordan.

• 1:58:38Speaker 05

  But they can trade a piece of that pick.

• 1:58:40Bill Simmons?

  Is the best case scenario of a 2026 Warriors season, top six in the West, just being one of the six teams?

• 1:58:47Speaker 04

  Yeah, for sure. Yes. This, remember 48 wins was the number to make the play in, in the West last year. And thi- thi- this team to me.

• 1:58:59Speaker 04

  Looks like a 48 ish win, win team. Now that, you know, the number moved, the market responded to the Lakers injury.

• 1:59:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:59:08Speaker 04

  To LeBron's injury, the Lakers have been docked and the Warriors.

• 1:59:12Bill Simmons?

  Nobody believes in the Los Angeles Lakers, is it for me?

• 1:59:15Speaker 04

  My hands up.

• 1:59:16Bill Simmons?

  I like it.

• 1:59:17Speaker 04

  I don't, yeah, it's good.

• 1:59:19Bill Simmons?

  Here's, here's another case for Golden State. If you're going to go over, they were just really good the last 30 games of the season.

• 1:59:25Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:59:25Bill Simmons?

  They're 22 and 8. They were 8.8 plus net rating. They had probably the second best defense in the league for that stretch. This is all with Butler and I just think when you're that good for that long and you're bringing everybody back and you could be reasonably healthy. The, the, the question and the issue with the over runners with a team like this is just you got old guys. I'm counting on Butler, Curry and Draymond to play minutes.

• 1:59:52Speaker 04

  They had to go 22 and 8 down the stretch to make the effing play in.

• 1:59:55Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:59:56Speaker 04

  They weren't going to make it.

• 1:59:57Speaker 05

  Urgency.

• 1:59:57Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:59:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:59:58Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:59:59Speaker 05

  But they, they, their team changed in exactly the kinds of ways you would hope it would change by adding Jimmy Butler. Like their turnover rate went way down, their free throw rate went way up, their forcing turnovers on defense went way up. It was like they just injected all this stuff they didn't have.

• 2:00:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:00:15Speaker 05

  That came in one guy who can play their cut and screen and move style of play without any tutorial, just walk in.

• 2:00:22Bill Simmons?

  Well, also you go from having Curry to now Curry where there's less attention on him. So you're getting a better Curry on top of all these other things.

• 2:00:31Speaker 05

  And also just like we talked about with Denver, like when Curry goes to the bench, we actually have like a reliable thing we could. This was one of the easiest overs on the board for me. I'll, I'll, I'll press my lock button for the first time.

• 2:00:43Bill Simmons?

  Oh, wow.

• 2:00:43Speaker 05

  This is a lock over.

• 2:00:44Speaker 04

  This is amazing.

• 2:00:45Speaker 05

  Yeah. So I worry about their playoff, like, like, like getting through 82 games plus a grind of a couple of playoff series because they're so old. But I just think the IQ and talent on this team is way over 47.

• 2:00:58Bill Simmons?

  The chemistry is going to be awesome.

• 2:00:59Speaker 05

  And I do, my eyes pop, my eyes pop when all the projection systems like Pelton, Hollinger are like spitting out huge numbers for this team. If they're all in agreement, I'm like, okay, the Vegas is missing something.

• 2:01:12Bill Simmons?

  Horford too, because part of the problem with them, just the way the league has changed, with just being able to put shooters around Steph to give him more space, right? And you're just flipping Looney for Horford is so massive for him. If Horford has anything left, we can just park him at the top in that post role. They're playing post a bunch, who I don't even think, all due respect to him, is not somebody you really want to rely on for 25 minutes a game. Now you have Horford, who then can play defense too. I think they're going to be really good defensively. And I just like the team.

• 2:01:46Speaker 04

  I have a question for you guys, and then, well, let me ask.

• 2:01:49Bill Simmons?

  We haven't made a pick yet. So do you want to do that first?

• 2:01:51Speaker 04

  I know, because I have a question. I'd like to ask the question first. How many games do you think that Draymond, Steph, and Jimmy Butler will play together? There's 82 games. How many of those 82 games will those three guys be helping to play?

• 2:02:03Bill Simmons?

  Is it also fair to say this will be our last happy Jimmy Butler season before he'll then be, have a year left? And then, so this next summer will be when he starts up with the, I don't know what's happened with my contract.

• 2:02:18Speaker 05

  Would you say that to his face?

• 2:02:19Bill Simmons?

  Huh? I probably would, actually.

• 2:02:22Speaker 04

  I mean, you would like it if you did.

• 2:02:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's like, hey, Jimmy, can you be happy for a year?

• 2:02:28Speaker 05

  Maybe.

• 2:02:29Speaker 04

  Yeah, I'm too, so you're.

• 2:02:30Speaker 05

  My question is how many?

• 2:02:31Speaker 04

  Because that, that, that is important to, I think. Or is it not? But doesn't matter.

• 2:02:37Bill Simmons?

  I'm going to say 60 plus for me.

• 2:02:39Speaker 05

  No, I don't think so. I think it's more than that. I was going to say 45 or 50, that all three of them play together, 55 maybe?

• 2:02:45Bill Simmons?

  Are you talking about injury, or they're going to like stagger?

• 2:02:47Speaker 04

  Whatever it is, injury and rest.

• 2:02:48Speaker 05

  Injury and like, they're just.

• 2:02:49Bill Simmons?

  I'm going higher.

• 2:02:50Speaker 05

  Like, they're all project to be like 65 game players. So you just start doing the math of how much do those overlap?

• 2:02:57Speaker 04

  So if you have two of those three guys for good stretches of the season, we're saying that it doesn't matter, right?

• 2:03:02Speaker 05

  I feel good.

• 2:03:03Bill Simmons?

  So, I feel good like. On the one side with Curry, Kerr has been, I don't, Steph looked a little gamey tonight. I'm resting him in Phoenix tomorrow. Like, he'll just, he'll always do that.

• 2:03:12Speaker 04

  Yes.

• 2:03:13Bill Simmons?

  On the other side, they really hated being in the play-in last year, and just all the, all the miles you have to put on yourselves in games like that. I don't think they want any part of it. I think they want to be in the top six, which makes me, the question for me though, Zach, they'd have to jump, OKC not happening, Denver not happening, Minnesota probably not happening.

• 2:03:37Bill Simmons?

  The Clippers, I'm gonna say not happening. Houston, Lakers, San Antonio. So they have to jump two of those to be in the top six, basically.

• 2:03:47Speaker 04

  I mean.

• 2:03:48Bill Simmons?

  That's where it gets hard. They're gonna have to be in the 49 range.

• 2:03:51Speaker 04

  For me, it gets easier.

• 2:03:52Speaker 05

  They're not jumping, they don't have to jump San Antonio.

• 2:03:54Speaker 04

  Right.

• 2:03:54Speaker 05

  They are ahead of San Antonio last year and coming into this year.

• 2:03:57Bill Simmons?

  We just made the case earlier that Wemby's

• 2:03:59Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 2:03:59Bill Simmons?

  has a chance to be like.

• 2:04:01Speaker 04

  You guys made that case, not me.

• 2:04:02Speaker 05

  But this is why I said when Van Vliet got injured.

• 2:04:05Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 2:04:05Speaker 05

  Like there is, it's not hard to come seventh in the West. Like, not a lot has to go wrong for your team for you to suddenly be in the play-in tournament. And Houston fans, like, I'm not saying they will. I think they're gonna be a little better than that, but like, you can't pencil any of these teams below Oklahoma City and Denver into the third seed, like, just like no brainer.

• 2:04:25Speaker 04

  If you win 47 games, you're, you're in the play-in. You're looking, you're like fighting to make the play-in. I am going to take the over. I want to be on the record with this team. I think they're gonna win 48 games.

• 2:04:36Bill Simmons?

  You just fucking copycat at us. That was bullshit.

• 2:04:38Speaker 04

  We talked it through.

• 2:04:39Bill Simmons?

  Ridiculous. I like, you should have come in with the pick.

• 2:04:42Speaker 05

  I like Melton.

• 2:04:43Bill Simmons?

  That was cheating. Moody cheater.

• 2:04:45Speaker 04

  What are you talking about?

• 2:04:46Speaker 05

  You guys couldn't talk me out of the Lakers over. I look forward to being wrong on that one, but I'm taking it. Sticking with it.

• 2:04:52Bill Simmons?

  You mentioned the Houston play-in possibilities?

• 2:04:54Speaker 04

  Yeah, what are the, what are the odds?

• 2:04:55Bill Simmons?

  Plus 330 on Fanduel. Kind of intriguing.

• 2:04:59Speaker 04

  Before the season starts.

• 2:05:00Bill Simmons?

  Cause there's gonna be a play-in team in the West that we did not think was gonna be in the play-in.

• 2:05:03Speaker 05

  One of these older LA, LA, Golden State teams is gonna just run into a pile of bad injury luck and just like, something is gonna go wrong for one of these teams.

• 2:05:10Speaker 04

  It's literally the Lakers.

• 2:05:11Bill Simmons?

  Lakers, plus 155.

• 2:05:13Speaker 05

  Nobody believes in the Lakers.

• 2:05:15Bill Simmons?

  Playing. Uh, two more. Contractually, we have to do these last two teams.

• 2:05:19Speaker 05

  Contractually, I'm, I'm just getting fired up now.

• 2:05:22Bill Simmons?

  The Sacramento Kings, their over-under is 35 and a half. They are, uh, plus 360 for the playoffs.

• 2:05:30Bill Simmons?

  They two to one for the play in. They lost, uh, Larravia and Valen Shunus. They added Schroder. They added the artist formerly known as Dario Saric. And, uh, Drew Eubanks. And they lost Keegan Murray for at least the first 10 to 12 games of the season. And, uh, they also had some weird offseason stuff with Vivek's daughter being kind of peripherally involved in this Chance Comanche story, which was pretty crazy. Um, in general, I mean, just saying the Kings had a weird anything is kind of, I don't know if I needed to say that. Do they get enough credit for being reprehensibly incompetent, Zach?

• 2:06:12Speaker 05

  Oh, yeah.

• 2:06:13Bill Simmons?

  Okay. You think they get enough?

• 2:06:14Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 2:06:16Bill Simmons?

  I just want to make sure.

• 2:06:16Speaker 05

  Yeah, no, there's

• 2:06:18Bill Simmons?

  Cause they have

• 2:06:18Speaker 05

  They're about to get more, so we can, we can keep going.

• 2:06:20Bill Simmons?

  They've won playoff series appearance since 06. They haven't won a playoff series since 04. They haven't made the finals ever, and they just seem to keep popping up whenever weird shit happens with the, uh, the NBA. I feel bad for the Kings fans because we got a taste of how cool it was once upon a time. Two years ago, it feels like 20 would light the beam. And then they just decided to reassemble the 2023 Chicago Bulls was a bonus. And that's where we are now.

• 2:06:49Speaker 05

  I would like to congratulate Vegas again. I don't know how to do this. I don't know. I'm not a gambling guy. This team in the last three years has won 48, 46 and 40 games. And Vegas is like, yeah, how about 35 and a half? How about you eat that crappy number Sacramento Kings? And I could not be more aggressively under even on that low number. Give me all the Kings understock. I hate this team. I hate this roster. I hate the Keegan Murray's already injured. I hate the vibes. I hate everything. I think this is going to be a year from hell for the Kings. I'm taking under, under, under, under.

• 2:07:27Bill Simmons?

  You didn't even mention Coach Doug Christie.

• 2:07:28Speaker 05

  Under. Could not be like, it's a low number and I just could not be more like this, this is the year from hell. Who's playing defense on this team? Why are DeMar DeRozan and Zach Levine on the same team anymore ever? Like, I hate everything about the, Dennis Schroder, I don't hate, but I don't hate everything. There are parts I don't mind. I hate the construction of the team. I hate the, I just hate it. I'm going under.

• 2:07:51Bill Simmons?

  House, are there, so we'll say Utah. Is there another West team you like less than the Kings?

• 2:07:58Speaker 05

  No, no, no, no. This, this team, it is the epitome of shit alchemy. Taking gold and spinning it into a giant pile of shit. This team had Tyrese Halliburton on it. This team had De'Aaron Fox on it. This team had a beam. I wanted, I liked lighting the effing beam. That was an amazing season. I enjoyed that season. I'm sorry, I gotta let, I'm sorry.

• 2:08:24Bill Simmons?

  What happened?

• 2:08:25Speaker 05

  No, I'm just like, who's the backup power forward on this team? Doug McDermott? Look at the depth on this team. Nick Clifford's gotta step in and play like 30 minutes a game.

• 2:08:33Bill Simmons?

  Like, Sarge is gonna play.

• 2:08:35Speaker 05

  Why? What is that? Hey, you didn't play at all for the Nuggets. We'll, we'll take you.

• 2:08:42Bill Simmons?

  Also, they tried to trade Malik Monk, Monk, Leek Monk. I did it, House.

• 2:08:47Speaker 05

  Our first one of the season.

• 2:08:48Bill Simmons?

  My first one.

• 2:08:49Speaker 05

  Love it. We haven't even got to many of the Yugoslavian players.

• 2:08:52Bill Simmons?

  They tried to trade him all summer. I kinda like him.

• 2:08:55Speaker 05

  There's still time to do it.

• 2:08:56Bill Simmons?

  I would take him.

• 2:08:57Speaker 05

  This team, this team stinks.

• 2:08:59Bill Simmons?

  They tried to trade Carter for Kaminga.

• 2:09:02Speaker 05

  They, the whole thing stinks like the garbage bags on the sidewalk that have been out two days too long. It just stinks. I could not be more happy to take an under on a low number on a team that has been around 500 or over for three straight years.

• 2:09:14Bill Simmons?

  I wrote, here are some of my notes. This is the single dumbest NBA roster. They have no salary cap space. They have no young studs. They have no under 25 player. You were like, this guy. They have no chance. There's no point for the team. There's no five man, there's no five man rotation you can put together with the players they have that could win two games in a playoff series if they played all 48 minutes without a bench?

• 2:09:42Speaker 05

  I like Keon Ellis. They messed that one up too.

• 2:09:46Bill Simmons?

  This is just, I hate it. I mean, thank God for these guys that Joe Dumars came back to New Orleans and was able to do his thing because this is the height of ineptness. And some of the East teams have gotten more competent. Some of the ones that we've had from an inept standpoint like Charlotte, Detroit, you know, the Wizards, there were like some really dumb, stupid, and now we just have the Nets. And we have the Nets and the Kings and the Pelicans as our big three. I'm a hard under as well, House, and I assume you are too.

• 2:10:14Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 2:10:15Bill Simmons?

  Okay, three unders.

• 2:10:16Speaker 05

  Not, not. I think this is, this is the Hindenburg of NBA teams this year.

• 2:10:25Bill Simmons?

  Also, like, might be the number one fanbase really mad at the team by like December? Trying to think of a fanbase that would be mad at a team.

• 2:10:34Speaker 05

  Chicago's hard to beat.

• 2:10:35Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah. Wow, wait till we get to them.

• 2:10:38Bill Simmons?

  No, but Chicago's like just trapped in a loveless marriage. Like, if you're a Chicago Bulls fan, you have no hope every year.

• 2:10:44Speaker 04

  Zach, I think you, this was on your podcast, maybe with Nikias yesterday. This is a team whose head coach went from Sacramento to a team that I think is going to be in the NBA Finals. Didn't take a break. Now, I think that was on your pod, I think I heard that on your pod.

• 2:11:04Speaker 05

  I don't even remember.

• 2:11:04Speaker 04

  But, yeah. My eyebrow went from this, this goddamn garbage dump to becoming the head coach of a team that

• 2:11:16Speaker 05

  Could make the finals.

• 2:11:17Speaker 04

  Will be my pick for the NBA Finals in the East.

• 2:11:19Bill Simmons?

  Also, why did they trade De'Aaron Fox? Why did they have to do it when they did it? What was the point of that?

• 2:11:25Speaker 05

  Cause he asked for it.

• 2:11:25Speaker 04

  He asked.

• 2:11:26Bill Simmons?

  Okay, we'll talk about it after the season, De'Aaron. That's what, that's what the max money was for. Let's try to make it through this year, we'll talk this summer. Instead, they made this crappy trade that nobody liked.

• 2:11:39Bill Simmons?

  Well, just when you think it can't get worse, here's the Phoenix Suns. Over under 31 and a half.

• 2:11:48Speaker 04

  It's a low number.

• 2:11:49Bill Simmons?

  New coach, Jordan Knight.

• 2:11:50Speaker 04

  Yeah, like him.

• 2:11:52Bill Simmons?

  They lost Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, among other players. They lost half their team. They added Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green. They have centers now, Mark Williams and Malleyak.

• 2:12:02Speaker 04

  Malawatch.

• 2:12:03Bill Simmons?

  Malawatch.

• 2:12:05Speaker 04

  Did I say it right?

• 2:12:05Bill Simmons?

  Malawatch.

• 2:12:07Speaker 04

  Zach gave you the right thumbs.

• 2:12:08Bill Simmons?

  They have to swap 2026 first with Washington, but might not have to because Washington's also going to be bad.

• 2:12:17Bill Simmons?

  Plus 680 for the playoffs, plus 200 for the plan. And they're paying Devin Booker. My math might be off, but I think he makes 143 million dollars this year. Somewhere in there, 133, 143. Their starting lineup is, looks like Mark Williams, Royce O'Neal, Dillon Brooks, Devin Booker and Jalen Green.

• 2:12:40Bill Simmons?

  How's, how many minutes a league pass are you going to watch of this team? Over, under 50?

• 2:12:44Speaker 04

  Oh, a lot.

• 2:12:45Bill Simmons?

  Why?

• 2:12:46Speaker 04

  This team intrigues me.

• 2:12:47Bill Simmons?

  Why?

• 2:12:48Speaker 04

  Because I think that they have something to prove. I'm actually interested in this, this team. I think that this is a curious experiment. You know, Ishbia and.

• 2:12:59Bill Simmons?

  Like how S and M is an experiment?

• 2:13:01Speaker 04

  Well, that would, would over, under 50 minutes of that?

• 2:13:05Bill Simmons?

  Is an experiment?

• 2:13:05Speaker 04

  No, no, no. We don't go that dark. I'm not that mean. I'm not, anyway.

• 2:13:11Bill Simmons?

  I'm not mean.

• 2:13:12Speaker 04

  Yeah. Uh, no, I actually think that this team with, with Booker is incented to try. I, I like, it was so dead there last year. The breathing the new life into the thing. I'm actually kind of intrigued.

• 2:13:28Bill Simmons?

  Counter. They could just suck and keep either their pick or Washington's pick and have a top five pick.

• 2:13:35Speaker 04

  They don't have to do anything. That's going to happen, right?

• 2:13:38Bill Simmons?

  Probably might happen. They're probably the third worst team in the West, sec, second or third.

• 2:13:43Speaker 04

  I don't think, I don't think they keep.

• 2:13:47Speaker 05

  I think that their pick swap is so complicated. I think Memphis has has left them in pick swap rights in this like morass of picks. I'm not sure how their pick swap works. They might, they don't control their own pick.

• 2:13:57Bill Simmons?

  I did so much research for this pod and it's impossible. We maybe maybe.

• 2:14:03Speaker 05

  It's a giant paragraph right here, but I just remember talking to people about how Memphis is like almost more or less guaranteed a lottery pick between Washington's pick and Phoenix's pick. In any case, I don't care either way. I'm going under anyway. It doesn't matter to me. I do think there's, I'm, I'm kind of with you where like there's some, they got a lot of, and I mean this in a good way, like a lot of tweener forwards on the team that I'm interested in sort of like Brooks and O'Neal and Fleming, the kid they just drafted, and Igadoro and Dunn. They trend a little big, which is interesting because they can be switchy and whatever. It's, it's the ball handling behind Booker that makes me really, really nervous.

• 2:14:43Speaker 05

  If he misses any amount of time, it's point Jalen Green, or it's like calling in Colin Gillespie for like super duper emergency 25 minute a game duty. That makes me very nervous. The youth of the centers makes me very nervous. Mark Williams missing half of every season makes me nervous.

• 2:15:01Bill Simmons?

  Mark Williams being frantically traded by his team, even though he's 23 years old.

• 2:15:05Speaker 05

  There's some Dillon Brooks, like flip you for a future pick potential to, um, which I think he's like a sneaky, interesting trade candidate.

• 2:15:15Bill Simmons?

  Me too.

• 2:15:15Speaker 05

  I, I think I'm with you that there's stuff to like not hate here, but, and the number is very low, but I'm still going under because in this conference, I just have too many questions about the roster.

• 2:15:25Bill Simmons?

  So I think you're right, Zach, on that Suns. It's, it's super complicated, but it looks like Charlotte's involved, Memphis is involved.

• 2:15:35Speaker 05

  I think Memphis.

• 2:15:36Bill Simmons?

  They did a use of Nurkic trade where they kind of dumped some sort of protection with something with 26.

• 2:15:42Speaker 05

  Were you going over either way?

• 2:15:43Bill Simmons?

  No, I wasn't going over.

• 2:15:44Speaker 05

  No, I'm going to correct it.

• 2:15:45Bill Simmons?

  You're going over, yeah.

• 2:15:46Speaker 05

  I am going over. Yeah, I am. I am. Cause 32 and 50 is a terrible record and you know, they're, they're still in that lottery.

• 2:15:55Bill Simmons?

  Absolutely absurd.

• 2:15:57Speaker 05

  It's fine.

• 2:15:57Bill Simmons?

  They won 33 games last year.

• 2:15:59Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 2:15:59Bill Simmons?

  Or 36 games last year.

• 2:16:00Speaker 05

  Yeah. The with, with a roster where they hated, everybody hated each other and the coach. I mean, Coach Bud Light.

• 2:16:07Bill Simmons?

  Can we talk about Jalen Green and, and Devin Booker sharing a backcourt together?

• 2:16:12Speaker 05

  I think it'll be fine.

• 2:16:13Bill Simmons?

  Find in what context?

• 2:16:14Speaker 04

  Ask Jordan Naught. This is, this is a little bit of a

• 2:16:17Speaker 05

  Jordan Naught's can be a good coach.

• 2:16:18Speaker 04

  I agree.

• 2:16:19Speaker 05

  But this is, but this is the place where coaches go to die.

• 2:16:23Speaker 04

  And like, well, I, you know, I mean, I All the has been retread coaches. This is a new, young, you know,

• 2:16:31Speaker 05

  We, we, we

• 2:16:31Bill Simmons?

  Terrible pick.

• 2:16:32Speaker 04

  Look, literally.

• 2:16:33Speaker 05

  I love it. I actually love it.

• 2:16:34Speaker 04

  Monty Williams made his mark with this. He went on to the, the, the ignominy that he deserved. But Monty Williams, you know, this is, there's a playbook for

• 2:16:45Bill Simmons?

  Ignominy?

• 2:16:46Speaker 04

  That's a word.

• 2:16:48Bill Simmons?

  You mean ignominy?

• 2:16:50Speaker 04

  Say it however you want.

• 2:16:52Bill Simmons?

  How about the correct way?

• 2:16:54Speaker 04

  Pull it up on Google, on the Google machine.

• 2:16:57Bill Simmons?

  So you're going over for the Suns.

• 2:16:59Speaker 04

  It's just 32 wins. It's a shit, that's a shit team with a shit record.

• 2:17:03Bill Simmons?

  I think they are either the second or worst third, second or third worst West team. Lock it down.

• 2:17:11Speaker 04

  I mean, that's kind of fine.

• 2:17:12Speaker 05

  I love that you're going, I love that you're going over.

• 2:17:15Speaker 04

  I am going over.

• 2:17:15Speaker 05

  Cause there's more talent here than people think. I just don't think it's enough.

• 2:17:19Speaker 04

  There's this guy who, who came from the MVP season in Europe. Or like, he played really good. Yeah, Hayes Davis. Another guy.

• 2:17:26Bill Simmons?

  So Phoenix made the 2021 finals and then they went 64 and 18 in 2022.

• 2:17:32Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 2:17:33Bill Simmons?

  Heading into that playoffs, they were a 64 win team.

• 2:17:36Speaker 05

  Mm hmm. And Luca broke them. Luca broke the whole

• 2:17:38Bill Simmons?

  Luca broke them. KD trade, Beal trade. They lost all their picks and swaps, plus Bridges, Cam Johnson. They lost Ayton. They went from 45, 49, 37 wins. They paid the highest luxury tax for three years.

• 2:17:52Speaker 05

  The Ayton thing, like the Nurkic, they also traded Kamara in that trade. Like, it's like a sneaky disaster, like trade within a trade.

• 2:18:02Bill Simmons?

  It's one of the great, terrible three year runs in the history of the league by a front office ownership. Which would be, that'd be a fun podcast for a rainy day. Just the all time worst anti heaters by a team. Just a three year shit fest.

• 2:18:18Speaker 05

  How many different Kings stretches could we put?

• 2:18:20Bill Simmons?

  Be tough. You have to pick eras. You almost said, they couldn't overlap the eras. You couldn't take 2012 to 14 if 14 and 16 was in there. All right, we're going to go backwards and go through all of our picks.

• 2:18:32Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 2:18:33Bill Simmons?

  And you guys tell me what the locks are.

• 2:18:38Bill Simmons?

  Oklahoma City, 62 and a half. We all went over.

• 2:18:42Speaker 05

  Lock. I'm locking a 62 and a half over. I'm locking it. It's one of my, how many locks do am I required to lock up?

• 2:18:48Bill Simmons?

  You can do, you can honestly do as many as you want, up to 10.

• 2:18:51Speaker 05

  I want a minimum number. I don't want that many locks. Six is my minimum.

• 2:18:54Bill Simmons?

  I am also locking that down.

• 2:18:55Speaker 05

  Six to eight. Yes.

• 2:18:57Bill Simmons?

  Double lock for OKC.

• 2:18:59Speaker 04

  I'm not locking it. I like the over. You guys talked me into it.

• 2:19:01Bill Simmons?

  Denver Nuggets, 53 and a half. House and I went over. Zach went under.

• 2:19:06Speaker 04

  I am a lock on, on Denver over 53 and a half.

• 2:19:09Bill Simmons?

  Okay. Very exciting. Minnesota Timberwolves, all three of us are over at 49 and a half.

• 2:19:16Speaker 05

  Lock it.

• 2:19:18Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 2:19:19Speaker 04

  I'm joining Zach. I need more locks. I'm joining Zach on the lock for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

• 2:19:25Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna stay away. Portland, 34 and a half, under, under, under for all three of us.

• 2:19:30Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 2:19:32Bill Simmons?

  Utah, 19 and a half, under, under, under for all three of us.

• 2:19:36Speaker 05

  I can't believe we all went under on 19 and a half. That's, congratulations to the Utah Jazz.

• 2:19:40Bill Simmons?

  Houston Rockets, 52 and a half, three unders for us. It's borderline lock.

• 2:19:48Speaker 05

  Lock it for me.

• 2:19:49Bill Simmons?

  Oh, you're locking that?

• 2:19:49Speaker 05

  Locking it. Locking the under. Wow.

• 2:19:53Bill Simmons?

  I want to lock it, but I wa, I really want to root for the Rockets to be good because I think we need one more really good basketball team. But that seems way too high.

• 2:20:03Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna stay away. San Antonio, 43 and a half, over for me, over for Zach, under for House. I'm locking this down. 43 and a half over for me.

• 2:20:13Speaker 05

  I'm not joining you.

• 2:20:15Bill Simmons?

  Dallas Mavericks, 40 and a half, over for me, under for Zach, over for House.

• 2:20:24Bill Simmons?

  It's a lock for me.

• 2:20:26Speaker 05

  You said that. You looked right into my eyes.

• 2:20:28Bill Simmons?

  But I'm locking it. Memphis, 39 and a half, under for me, under for Zach, over for House.

• 2:20:34Speaker 05

  I thought I went over on Memphis. I went over on Memphis.

• 2:20:37Bill Simmons?

  I'll switch you to over.

• 2:20:38Speaker 05

  I didn't even remember you going under.

• 2:20:40Bill Simmons?

  Under.

• 2:20:43Bill Simmons?

  New Orleans, thirty and a half, three overs.

• 2:20:47Speaker 05

  Obviously, a franchise you can trust to that level.

• 2:20:50Bill Simmons?

  What could go wrong?

• 2:20:53Bill Simmons?

  Clippers, three overs.

• 2:20:56Speaker 05

  Unbelievable. Someone should just go under on principle.

• 2:21:00Bill Simmons?

  Lakers, under forty-seven and a half for me and for Joe House, over for Zach.

• 2:21:06Speaker 05

  You hear that, Lakers fans?

• 2:21:08Bill Simmons?

  Lakers.

• 2:21:09Speaker 04

  Right into the camera.

• 2:21:10Bill Simmons?

  Lakers.

• 2:21:11Speaker 04

  He says it right into the camera.

• 2:21:13Bill Simmons?

  Golden State Warriors, forty-seven and a half, three overs.

• 2:21:17Speaker 05

  Lock. I already locked it. I prelocked.

• 2:21:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you did lock it.

• 2:21:19Speaker 04

  I prelocked it.

• 2:21:23Bill Simmons?

  I'm not gonna lock it, because of the old guys, but I am gonna lock this next one. Sacramento, thirty-five and a half. It is three o'clock.

• 2:21:33Speaker 05

  That's the legacy.

• 2:21:34Bill Simmons?

  Are you locking that one too?

• 2:21:35Speaker 04

  No, no, no, no. I'm not locking.

• 2:21:37Bill Simmons?

  No lock?

• 2:21:37Speaker 05

  You're not locking it?

• 2:21:38Speaker 04

  No, I mean, they're so weird. They're, they're, it's a disaster.

• 2:21:42Speaker 05

  I have, I have like four different locks. I have a combination lock, I have a bike lock, I have a chain lock.

• 2:21:47Bill Simmons?

  Tire lock?

• 2:21:48Speaker 05

  Possible lock.

• 2:21:49Speaker 04

  Vagina lock.

• 2:21:50Bill Simmons?

  Free hitters.

• 2:21:51Speaker 04

  For Doug Christie.

• 2:21:53Speaker 05

  That's right.

• 2:21:54Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:21:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, see, I forgot about that story.

• 2:21:57Speaker 04

  That's right.

• 2:21:57Bill Simmons?

  Phoenix, thirty-one and a half.

• 2:22:01Speaker 05

  We all, oh, no, you went over.

• 2:22:02Bill Simmons?

  Under for me, under for Zach, over for House.

• 2:22:04Speaker 05

  Lock it up.

• 2:22:05Speaker 04

  I only have two locks, so I'd like to lock the Clippers as well. Applying a lock.

• 2:22:09Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 2:22:10Speaker 04

  Retroactive lock for the Clippers. Forty-nine and a half. It's not retroactive. We're, we're talking about it now. I have Denver, Minnesota, and the Clippers as lock overs.

• 2:22:19Bill Simmons?

  You know what? Since we're going backwards on locks, I'm gonna lock in Denver over fifty-three and a half.

• 2:22:25Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:22:26Bill Simmons?

  As well, with my guy, Nikola Jokic, my favorite non-selt.

• 2:22:31Speaker 05

  Are you on, are you on Jokic Island?

• 2:22:33Bill Simmons?

  I'm Jokic continent.

• 2:22:36Bill Simmons?

  Uh, that's it for part one of the NBA Over/Under's. Part two will be the East. It's going up about twelve, fifteen hours after you listen or watch to this one, which you can hopefully watch on Spotify or wherever you get your pods. Uh, thanks to Chris, thanks to Eduardo, thanks to Ronic as well, and, uh, we will see you for part two.

• 2:23:11Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 888-797777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, or mdgamblinghelp.org. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, I like those guys, star in the Sharp Witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner Martin McDonagh, writer-director of The Banshees of Inisherin and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich

• 2:23:52Bill Simmons?

  and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters November 6th. Get tickets now. This episode is brought to you by Core Power Protein Shakes. You know how we always talk about the little things that separate great athletes? Post-workout recovery is a big factor. Core Power Protein Shakes help you keep going after your workout with high-quality protein to build muscle and electrolytes to help hydrate. It's all you need for your recovery in one bottle, available in 26 and 42 gram protein options to pick what works

• 2:24:37Bill Simmons?

  best for you. Visit corepower.com to learn more. We're in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 877-8HOPENY, or text HOPENY in New York.