Guess the 2025 NFL Over/Under Win Totals With Cousin Sal

Surprise! The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to guess the win totals for every NFL team by division for the 2025-26 season, closing the show with Parent Corner! Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producers: Kyle Crichton and Chia Hao Tat Order Michelob ULTRA today, available on Doordash! ENJOY RESPONSIBLY © 2025 ANHEUSER-BUSCH, MICHELOB ULTRA® LIGHT BEER, ST. LOUIS, MO. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  You're listening to the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. FanDuel Sportsbook is the best place to bet on the NBA. We have these fun little Tuesday, Friday player performance stuff. We have same game parlays. We have picks from me sometimes and boosts and all kinds of fun things. Get ready in the playoffs. Download the FanDuel Sportsbook app today to get in on the action. And by the way, The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit theringer.com/rg to learn more. Listen to the end of this episode for additional details. Must be 21 plus, president of select states. Game in problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Hey, we launched Good Hang with Amy Poehler. It's doing great. You can get it as a video podcast on Spotify. You can also get it on the Amy Poehler Good Hang YouTube channel. Go check it out.

• 0:44Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season. Uber Eats is delivering deals every game day. This week, get 10 free boneless wings from Wingstop on qualifying orders. Game on, flavor on, Wingstop is here. So if your fantasy league is coming over for some in-person smack talk, order Wingstop on Uber Eats and get 10 boneless wings free. It's the perfect way to keep everyone fed tonight so you can focus on the game. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score a great deal. Order now and get 10 boneless wings free from Wingstop only on Uber Eats. Offer valid from September 14th to September 27th and from November 2nd to November 16th. Order minimum before taxes and fees is required. See retailer's storefront for details. Taxes, fees and terms apply.

• 1:28Bill Simmons?

  Product availability varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a Prestige TV podcast yesterday. We covered the studio, the first two episodes. People like the show. Me, Sean Fantasy, Joanna Robbins, talked about that. I'm also going to be there on Sunday night, White Lotus, episode seven. We already have that one in the bank. It's the last one we were able to tape ahead of time because it looks like no screeners for the last episode, the 90-minute one. So we're going to be doing that live. Uh, two Sundays from now, uh, new rewatch was coming Monday night. We are doing, I'm in Boston right now. We're doing, uh, Good Will Hunting tonight. So you can hear that as a podcast of

• 2:09Bill Simmons?

  the live show on Monday night, and then we're sticking around all weekend. Coolidge Corner, um, a place that I lived for a little bit, once upon a time, uh, we're doing a little Coolidge Corner Film Festival. They have a theater that's been there forever. Um, and they've actually taken care of it. And it's one of the best places to see movies in Boston. So we're showing high stakes movies, Boston movies all day, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I think we did nine movies total. Me and Sean and Chris are gonna be there for a couple of them to talk afterwards. So if you're interested, I, I think there might be some tickets left. It's, uh, the ringer.com slash events to go check that out. So this is fun. This is like an unexpected Christmas. NFL win total over unders came out today and cousin Sal and I decided we missed

• 2:54Bill Simmons?

  Guess the Lions. We're just gonna do it again. We're gonna play Guess the Lions with the over unders. We intentionally did not look at them. Uh, they came out on Fanduel right before they, we taped this podcast and that's what you're about to hear. But first, Pearl Jip.

• 3:29Bill Simmons?

  All right. Taping this on a Thursday, cousin Sal is here. Normally we just play Guess the Lions during the NFL season. We haven't seen Sal since the Super Bowl. The saddest look on his face every year, knowing that it's come to an end. And now we came up with a new idea. Thursday, I'm doing a pod. You were available. Fanduel dropping NFL over under win totals. So we said last night, I'm not gonna look, you're not gonna look, and we're gonna do Guess the Lions. We made our guesses and we're gonna go through every team and see, and see what our instincts were. What do you think?

• 4:00Speaker 01

  This is a spectacular day, uh, a new day in our calendar. Hopefully we could keep doing this. I mean, I've been sick all week. I was in Vegas. I, I come back from Vegas. I'm sick every time now. It's like, I come back with syphilis. I just have a cold. It doesn't help being next to nephew Kyle who fires up like 37 lung darts in 18 hours. It kills my throat. But anyway, I got some pep in my step. This is one of the five, if they should do this, Fanduel should release the win total over unders. The last Thursday in March, this would be one of the five best non-football sports days of the year. I mean, between March Madness, the four Sweet 16 games, opening day baseball,

• 4:38Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 4:39Speaker 01

  and preseason over under win totals. Are you kidding me?

• 4:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 4:42Speaker 01

  This is great.

• 4:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we should have gone live. This should have been an event. It should have been like when the NFL releases the schedule.

• 4:49Speaker 01

  Right.

• 4:49Bill Simmons?

  We should have been the one announcing the Fanduel over unders for each team. Try and guess what they were. Yeah, we'll work on this. I think next year we can do an even bigger version of it. I know you go right from football just to a series of wagering on sports. You don't really know that well. There's a basketball like you're, I'm sure you made a shitload of preseason baseball bets. March Madness.

• 5:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 5:13Bill Simmons?

  You got some golf coming. There's some weird tennis stuff happening. What's the dumbest thing you've bet on in the last six?

• 5:18Speaker 01

  I have Joker in the Miami Open. I have to wake up and bet soccer. And now there's like, you have to have like nine streaming services to have the, all the soccer capabilities for the world to worldwide gamble on it. But yeah, that's basically it. Just nonsensical soccer in the morning.

• 5:35Bill Simmons?

  Really? Like, like what country? What region of the world are we in?

• 5:38Speaker 01

  All of them. All of them. The ones.

• 5:40Bill Simmons?

  All the parts of the world?

• 5:42Speaker 01

  Yes. Is Greenland a country or do they belong to us now? I don't know. I bet them all.

• 5:46Bill Simmons?

  It's a continent? I don't do that. Are they our 51st state?

• 5:49Speaker 01

  Our cherished 51st state. Yes. Yeah.

• 5:52Bill Simmons?

  Were you able to bet on Stephen A. versus LeBron? Is there like a future bet there? Who's favored?

• 5:58Speaker 01

  Stephen, make no mistake, Stephen A. would swing at him.

• 6:02Bill Simmons?

  He would?

• 6:03Speaker 01

  Worst thing I've ever heard.

• 6:05Bill Simmons?

  Stephen A., they started First Take today.

• 6:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 6:08Bill Simmons?

  Two minute intro from the show credits of Molly and went to Stephen A. 17 straight minutes and it was incredible, compelling TV. He's an artist.

• 6:16Speaker 01

  Really?

• 6:17Bill Simmons?

  I was really into it. Yeah, I really enjoyed it. He's really good. Yeah. I don't know where this goes, but I'll tell you this. If you're, if you're gonna do the who has more to lose sweepstakes, I'm gonna say LeBron has more to lose. If this just gets worse and worse and worse.

• 6:31Speaker 01

  Interesting. Really?

• 6:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, I'm not saying he has more to lose. I'm saying he's just more famous.

• 6:37Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 6:38Bill Simmons?

  For Stephen A. Like this is great. I'll keep this going as long as you want.

• 6:42Speaker 01

  I don't know that LeBron's more. Stephen A. could be our next president. I don't know who's more famous.

• 6:46Bill Simmons?

  Maybe that's how Stephen A. wins. He becomes the next president and he abolishes the NBA max contract. That'll be his first thing. Okay.

• 6:55Bill Simmons?

  NFL regular season win totals. So we're gonna go by, you want to go alphabetically or you want to go by divisions?

• 7:02Speaker 01

  Um, probably divisions. I mean, I would really like to do 15 minutes on Jokic's no look pass and another 20 on whether Steph's tunnel shot went in. But okay, if you want to get right into it, it's fine.

• 7:14Bill Simmons?

  The tunnel shot. Is that Steph's fault that it was sent it? Like, should he have retweeted the angle and said that it didn't actually go in?

• 7:22Speaker 01

  He needs to apologize. I was saying that he's no longer a first ballot Hall of Famer. I mean, he now drops to two or three, but I, I thought the my, my favorite thing about it is typical NBA fashion. It took three days to review. Like, why didn't we get that second angle an hour later? We found out like on Thursday.

• 7:39Bill Simmons?

  Mark Davis is still at the monitor. Okay.

• 7:41Speaker 01

  Divisions. Yeah, let's do divisions.

• 7:43Bill Simmons?

  We'll start with the AFCs. Buffalo Bills. They went 13 and four. We're going to tell you the only things that we know that we did work on were what other two divisions each team is playing.

• 7:54Speaker 01

  Right.

• 7:55Bill Simmons?

  So the Buffalo Bills were 13 and four last year. Next year, they're playing the AFC North. Not awesome. NFC South, pretty good. So I'm going to say that's, it's about an average degree. Yeah, it's a wash.

• 8:08Speaker 01

  I think that's fair. Then we should also say, like, you know, we may have like some leans here, but these aren't our official picks. You don't want to tarnish your, what were you, 27 and five last year?

• 8:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I'm never, I'm going to go five and 27 next year. I'll never top 27 and five.

• 8:22Speaker 01

  So we're still missing like two key components. We haven't seen the draft, obviously, and we don't know the schedule. We know who everybody plays. We don't know like rest advantage. We don't know like, you know, who has three road games in a row and stuff like that. Those are crucial.

• 8:34Bill Simmons?

  We know, we don't know what's happening in the draft. None of this stuff. Just like, and we're trying to guess, what do we think FanDuel thought would be the perfect over under? Cause the goal of this, when they're putting out these over unders in March, how do we get the most action both ways and the over under? Last year, Dallas, they put it a win too high. Everybody bet, well, this, I'm sorry, it was your team, but everybody bet the under. Everybody kept that in the under and they had to move it from 10 and a half to nine and a half, which was a really bad sign. So one of the things we're interested this year is snapshot of in March when this comes out and then how does it shift? They'll start putting action. If people are banging the over, like if people start banging the Patriots over, they'll make it a minus 140, minus 145. So you'll get a

• 9:17Bill Simmons?

  sense of like, oh, who is America really starting to get behind? Which can either be a good thing or a bad thing.

• 9:22Speaker 01

  Right.

• 9:23Bill Simmons?

  So Buffalo. I went with 11.5, so.

• 9:28Bill Simmons?

  11 and a half wins as the over under. What'd you have?

• 9:31Speaker 01

  I said 12. And again, I'm looking at these for the first time.

• 9:36Bill Simmons?

  You can't say 12, you have to do a point five, right?

• 9:38Speaker 01

  No, no, no. Ha- half of them were re- regular square numbers.

• 9:43Bill Simmons?

  Oh, really? Oh, I didn't even know we were doing that. Okay.

• 9:45Speaker 01

  Yeah, I wrote down the last years. They were like, uh, you were right though, of course. So the, the cheating, uh, right off the top. Worked out. 11 and a half.

• 9:53Bill Simmons?

  I do. I knew this would be a new way for you to get bad. Meanwhile, you won Guess the Lines last year and there's been a lot of talk about you and whether you've been cheating.

• 10:00Speaker 01

  This doesn't count. This doesn't count.

• 10:02Bill Simmons?

  Like, are you using PDs? What's going on over there?

• 10:06Speaker 01

  Uh, so they went, they had 13 wins last year and it's 11 and a half.

• 10:11Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 10:12Speaker 01

  And that's to say that the division got better or you just can't make them 12? I don't know.

• 10:16Bill Simmons?

  Well, we should also mention, this is crucial too, minus 140 already.

• 10:21Speaker 01

  Uh huh. For the over.

• 10:22Bill Simmons?

  At least I'm in Boston, so I can bet and I could do a live bet as we're talking, but, um, minus 140 already, which makes me wonder, did they bump that at some point? But I think Miami's probably a little, either the same or a little worse than last year. Jets, I, who knows? The Pats are the only one that you could say they'll definitely be better.

• 10:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 10:41Bill Simmons?

  So, and we, as far as we can tell, Buffalo didn't get worse. So.

• 10:45Speaker 01

  I think they're fine. I think that is, you know, you know, what they have out of Bosa is good. They just need, you know, basically.

• 10:52Bill Simmons?

  They have Bosa. They're gonna get the seven Bosa games.

• 10:54Speaker 01

  Yeah. I mean.

• 10:55Bill Simmons?

  Where he looks awesome.

• 10:56Speaker 01

  That's good. I mean, he's definitely gonna miss time, but they extended, uh, Allen, which is, which is great. I mean, we don't, 11 and a half, 12 is fine. So you get it.

• 11:04Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I forgot to mention one variable that you have to factor in is the schedule. So we're doing this by how they finished last year. So AFC's Buffalo's first place schedule next year.

• 11:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 11:13Bill Simmons?

  They'll have a bunch of night games. So all that stuff. Miami, eight, nine last year, AFC North, NFC South, second place schedule and, uh,

• 11:24Bill Simmons?

  Whatever this is, I might make a live under bet right now. Um, what do you have for this one?

• 11:30Speaker 01

  I have nine.

• 11:32Bill Simmons?

  Nine. Wow. You really went round numbers.

• 11:35Speaker 01

  Yeah. Yeah. How about half of mine? Uh, no, I got more, more of halves, but yeah, I have nine.

• 11:43Bill Simmons?

  I might be low.

• 11:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 11:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. They're eight, nine. I might be low. I said seven and a half. I don't like the vibe of that Dolphins team at all. And the answer is eight and a half.

• 11:53Speaker 01

  Eight and a half. So I get it.

• 11:55Bill Simmons?

  I'm going under. Yeah, that's a guaranteed under for me.

• 12:00Speaker 01

  Well, they had eight last year.

• 12:01Bill Simmons?

  You want to imitate JJ talking about this or should I do it?

• 12:04Speaker 01

  Go ahead. You do it. You go ahead. You start. I'll jump in.

• 12:07Bill Simmons?

  I don't know, bro. Eight and a half's low. It's a must, must win season for McDaniel. It's a must win. It's gotta win 10 games or he's not keeping his job, bro.

• 12:16Speaker 01

  You're gonna tell me Zach Wilson is gonna step in there and do the job? I'm not buying it. I'm not buying it for sure.

• 12:22Bill Simmons?

  You think he goes under?

• 12:23Speaker 01

  That's a discussion for a different day.

• 12:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Uh, all right. Eight and a half, even money both ways. So I, my prediction is that's going to be an under bet for a lot of people. All right. Jets are next. They were five and 12. Third place schedule next year. Justin Fields now a quarterback. Seventh pick in the draft. We'll see what they do with that. The one thing that could affect this is if they take Shador Sanders with the seventh pick. And basically get nothing out of that first round pick because they already took, uh, Fields. So

• 12:56Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna say six and a half for these guys. What do you have?

• 12:59Speaker 01

  All right. I get this. I said six and did you see it?

• 13:03Bill Simmons?

  Uh, it is five and a half.

• 13:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 13:06Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 13:07Speaker 01

  Amazing. It was nine and a half with Rogers. It's five and a half with Justin Fields. That's a, they went way too high on Rogers, which we know, but five and a half. What a slap in the effing empire.

• 13:22Bill Simmons?

  That's too, I think that's too low. Don't you? New coach, Aaron Glenn. Fields, different look than.

• 13:31Bill Simmons?

  Then Rogers, but not necessarily a worse look.

• 13:34Speaker 01

  Uh huh.

• 13:35Bill Simmons?

  Seventh pick in the draft. I don't know.

• 13:39Speaker 01

  I haven't seen like, all right. So how many games will they be favored in? One in their division?

• 13:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, maybe the home Pats game, the home Dolphins game, maybe.

• 13:49Speaker 01

  None of the AFC North games, probably.

• 13:51Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 13:52Speaker 01

  Couple of them NFC South.

• 13:53Bill Simmons?

  Carolina, if it's home against Carolina.

• 13:56Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think that's about.

• 13:57Bill Simmons?

  If it's home against New Orleans.

• 13:59Speaker 01

  Uh, what a mess.

• 14:00Bill Simmons?

  And then maybe one other shit team. All right. All right. This is the most exciting one. The Patriots, four and 13, new coach. Just spent money all over the place on a bunch of different positions. They have the fourth pick in the draft. Seems like about a 50 50 chance they're getting Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. Drake May year two. To say the coaching staff will be better is an understatement and they're going to have a fourth place schedule and they get to play the NFC South. There's a lot of things lining up for them to be the Washington.

• 14:28Speaker 01

  This could be 10 and a half and you're going over. I don't know.

• 14:31Bill Simmons?

  10 and a half, I'd be insulted. I think it should be 12 and a half. What, what do you have?

• 14:35Speaker 01

  Love it. I have seven and a half.

• 14:38Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's what I had too. And the answer is seven and a half.

• 14:42Speaker 01

  All right. That's fine. That's fair.

• 14:44Bill Simmons?

  Minus 115 already. All right. So we're two, you're up 211 with me right now.

• 14:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 14:53Bill Simmons?

  Does that go up? What if they get Abdul Carter or Hunter in the draft? Does that go up?

• 14:59Speaker 01

  Well, you're very influential and I know you're.

• 15:03Bill Simmons?

  I'm not influential with this.

• 15:04Speaker 01

  You're over the moon about Stefan Diggs. You got your way there.

• 15:07Bill Simmons?

  Not that one. I'm not, I'm, I'm, uh, I'll work. By, by the end of April, I'll be over the moon on the dick signing. Right now I'm, I'm kind of still confused. Although it does seem like they can get out of it after a year, but the, the 32 year old receiver coming off ACL surgery. I don't know. I don't know.

• 15:24Speaker 01

  You're not going to be in a spot where you're going to want to lose that last game, right? Which is where you were, which when we typically go over some of these teams over unders. You have to factor that in. And no, I think, I think you could be an eight and nine team. You should be happy with eight and nine and Drake May's second year.

• 15:40Bill Simmons?

  Well, the question is, could you be better than that? And that's what we said with Washington last year where they checked every box and both of us were, we both jumped on the over.

• 15:49Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 15:49Bill Simmons?

  We're, we kind of drew the line at could they be a playoff team?

• 15:53Speaker 01

  You need to watch.

• 15:53Bill Simmons?

  We've seen NFL.

• 15:55Speaker 01

  Denver type situation, right? I think your situation is even closer to Denver, even though it's, I know Nick was a rookie coming in, but older, whatever. Yeah, I think that's kind of what you have to do. Sneak up there.

• 16:06Bill Simmons?

  It's the recipe that works every year. And the question is whether it's the Patriots or another crappy team making the jump. It's, did you improve your coach? Do you have a QB? Is your schedule easy? If you have those three things, it becomes very realistic to go from four to 10 wins. We see it all the time. And I think they're a great candidate for this. So.

• 16:27Speaker 01

  I mean, you already sold, you already sold the nine part documentary for the 2025 Patriots. So, I mean, good job by you, I guess.

• 16:34Bill Simmons?

  Did they, did they green light that yet?

• 16:36Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:37Bill Simmons?

  It's just about Drake May. It's not about the Patriots. It's, it's, we're just with, it's like Truman Show. Remember that movie Truman Show? It's that with Drake May. We just, we follow him around. Um, all right, we're going to take a quick break and then we're going to do the rest of the divisions. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We are getting close to the NBA playoffs, which means we are getting close to the NBA Finals. One of my favorite sporting events, not just because it's really fun basketball at the highest possible level, but all the historical legacy stuff. It's my favorite. You've heard me talk about on the podcast many times. Speaking of finals, Michelob Ultra has given you the chance to win tickets to the NBA Finals, which I hope Boston is a part of.

• 17:19Bill Simmons?

  Not only do they make a superior beer, they're also helping fans like you get closer to the game. Michelob Ultra, superior is worth playing for. Check out michelobultra.com slash NBA finals to enter for a chance to win tickets. Michelob Ultra Courtside NBA Finals Sweepstakes, no purchase necessary. Open to US residents excluding Maryland residents 21 and up. Ends on May 5th, 2025. See official rules at michelobultra.com slash rules for price and detail. Message and data rates may apply, void where prohibited. All right, come back. We're going to do the AFC North.

• 18:00Bill Simmons?

  There's a world where this is the best division next year. Depending on what happens with Cleveland, like if they took Sanders at second and he was good right away with the rest of the team they have, maybe, I don't know.

• 18:12Speaker 01

  Yeah, let's try to remember to add up, add up the over under wins to determine who's the best division. So yeah, we'll, we'll see. This should, this could have the most.

• 18:21Bill Simmons?

  Baltimore, so the AFC North is playing the AFC East and the NFC North.

• 18:27Speaker 01

  Pretty tough.

• 18:29Bill Simmons?

  Pretty tough. So for easy games. If the Bears are even mediocre to decent, there's no easy games in the NFC North. And then in the AFC East, maybe the Jets, maybe the Dolphins, maybe the Pats, but maybe two of those three teams are like pretty frisky. So that's a pretty tough one. Baltimore first place schedule. They're going to have Sunday night games, Monday night games, they're in the running for a Christmas game. A Thursday game. You know, they're going to have another monster schedule because they want to put Lamar on TV. I predicted 11 and a half for this.

• 19:02Speaker 01

  That's exactly what I said. Where are we?

• 19:05Bill Simmons?

  The answer is 11 and a half.

• 19:09Speaker 01

  It's 11 and a half. Okay, we got it. We split it and 110 too. They're really.

• 19:13Bill Simmons?

  That's one of those, if the schedule stuff was a little easier, I would have gone 12 and a half, but I think you almost have to do the docket by one game just because you know it's probably headed for them. Okay.

• 19:23Speaker 01

  They were 11 last year and they won 12 games. So it kind of, that's a nice settling spot for them.

• 19:30Bill Simmons?

  Last year Pittsburgh 10 and 7.

• 19:34Bill Simmons?

  Second place schedule. We talked about the AFC East, NFC North, and as far as we know, they don't have a quarterback yet. Now, they're running out of possibilities because the Giants signed two of the guys. Rogers is still lurking. And just seems like he's milking it. There's Jackson Dart possibilities, I guess, maybe. They wanted to try to Bo Nix that situation.

• 19:56Bill Simmons?

  I don't, not a lot of other options after that unless they want to play the Mason Rudolph card. And yet this is a team every year that goes over their over. Do you think they factored that in with this over under pick or not?

• 20:08Speaker 01

  You know what's weird with it? They didn't. So yesterday, Russ signs with the Giants and Fandel's like, all right, so Rogers is the only missing piece at this point, and probably to the Steelers. We don't give a shit. We can't wait. We can't wait. We're not going to move at a tick if he signs with Pittsburgh or not. I don't, I mean, what do they have? They have Rudolph and they have Skylar Thompson. They should go for it. Go for it with those two. That'll be fun.

• 20:34Bill Simmons?

  Or trade for, or trade for not Kenny Pickett, but somebody of that ilk.

• 20:40Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 20:41Bill Simmons?

  Give up like a sixth round pick. It's pretty brutal. I can't believe they didn't figure this out. So I guessed eight and a half. That's what it was last year. Sounds great. What'd you have?

• 20:49Speaker 01

  I said seven and a half. I don't like this team.

• 20:52Bill Simmons?

  Uh, you're right. Seven and a half.

• 20:54Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 20:55Bill Simmons?

  Wow. You're doing better than me. You're, you're plus two on me right now. And there's been, there's been some juice already. That is minus 120 as we're taping this. It is 151 Pacific.

• 21:07Speaker 01

  Which way?

• 21:07Bill Simmons?

  East time. Juice on the over. Yeah.

• 21:10Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 21:11Bill Simmons?

  Because Mike Tomlin wins nine or 10 games every single year, and that's just what he does.

• 21:16Speaker 01

  Yeah. I don't know. This is a tough schedule. I think, I think everybody knows how to beat the Steelers now. Need 17 points. Go get it.

• 21:26Bill Simmons?

  Maybe even 16.

• 21:28Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 21:29Bill Simmons?

  Rogers going to the Steelers is probably the most fun outcome from a content standpoint.

• 21:35Bill Simmons?

  And there's a chance that Stiller fans will just hate his guts by November. Um, but we'll see how it goes. Cincinnati. I had the hardest time with this one. I think of anyone in the AFC. They're playing the AFC East, NFC North, third place schedule. They re-sign their receivers. They have Burrow. We'll see what happens with Hendrickson.

• 21:56Bill Simmons?

  Middle of the first round pick. I couldn't get to the 10 range with them. I went nine and a half. What'd you do?

• 22:02Speaker 01

  Oh, wow. All right. I went 10 and a half. I think they juice this up because any fantasy player is not really paying attention to how bad their offensive line might be, wants to bet the over in the Bengals and it was 10 and a half last year. What is it?

• 22:16Bill Simmons?

  It is 10 and a half. You're fucking killing me. What the hell?

• 22:19Speaker 01

  There we go.

• 22:20Bill Simmons?

  This is your new favorite game.

• 22:22Speaker 01

  This is it. This counts as four, four weeks, I think.

• 22:27Bill Simmons?

  One thing with this one, though, there's already a lot of juice on the under. It's minus 130, the under 10 and a half. So I might be right in two months. I don't, I don't see 11 wins for this team. That's a lot. That 11 wins makes them one of the four best teams in the AFC and you would take Buffalo over them, you'd take KC over them, you would definitely take Baltimore over them. And then, then it comes down to, would you take like, are they in the Texans Chargers kind of class or higher than that? Cause this, this, that over under says they're higher than that.

• 23:03Speaker 01

  I'm with you. I'm as right about the Bengals as I am as wrong about the Browns. And I feel like betting them to win 11. So it's going to be a tough schedule. They always get off to a slow start. I said they're a whole lot. They lost Alex Cap and Trent Brown. So it could be one of those years where Burrow's running for his life. So I don't love them with 11 wins.

• 23:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And we still don't know what's happened with Hendrickson.

• 23:23Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 23:24Bill Simmons?

  Cleveland, three and 14 last year, fourth place schedule and no cap space whatsoever. Kenny Pickett maybe is the quarterback unless they take Sanders.

• 23:37Speaker 01

  I love what you said. What'd you say? That was the funniest trade ever?

• 23:41Bill Simmons?

  Who's it? Oh, it's Pickett. Somehow Philly got like a sixth round pick out of it to trade Pickett, turn Pickett into Dorian Thompson Robinson. Like we need a pick.

• 23:49Speaker 01

  DTR.

• 23:50Bill Simmons?

  Need like a six-rounder. That's gotta be it. I, I went low. I went five and a half.

• 23:58Speaker 01

  You know, I said five and a half too. I'm regretting this. I think it could be even lower. They're miserable.

• 24:03Bill Simmons?

  No, five and a half.

• 24:04Speaker 01

  Is it? Okay.

• 24:05Bill Simmons?

  Yep. So juice on that one too already, minus 125. So people are banging the over. If you're banging the over, there's a case where you have to think they're taking Sanders and that he's going to be good right away. Right? He's Bo Nix next year for them and

• 24:23Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. I guess that's the case.

• 24:24Speaker 01

  This is a weird year with the quarterbacks. It really is. There might be actually too many quarterbacks versus teams that are going to take quarterbacks in the first round. I know I'll be wrong because everybody takes quarterbacks early, but are are the Browns and Titans definitely taking a quarterback or the Giants like?

• 24:41Bill Simmons?

  Titans are. I think Titans. I think Cam Ward is pretty locked into that one.

• 24:46Speaker 01

  All right.

• 24:47Bill Simmons?

  McShay McShay had some intel in his newsletter today that he thought there was a possibility the Giants were trying to trade up to one and basically got the word that Titans were taking Ward. Everyone seems to think he's going first. The odds reflect it. Right now, he is minus 1,200 on FanDuel to be the first pick.

• 25:05Speaker 01

  I I thought I'd go for some of those. I I put money on Dart and Sanders just thinking like maybe someone does something really stupid here, but because I don't feel like we've heard a lot about. Well, I know Ward's getting a little bit buzzed, but not to warrant minus 1,200.

• 25:19Bill Simmons?

  I told our guy Jack at FanDuel, I said, I wanted them to have the Bill Simmons runs around his house with his arms up in the air screaming euphorically, one, two, three, four draft scenario that I want to be able to bet.

• 25:33Speaker 01

  Oh.

• 25:34Bill Simmons?

  Ward goes first. Cleveland takes Sanders second. Giants take Travis Hunter third. And then we get Abdul Carter fourth in that I'm running around my house like this.

• 25:44Speaker 01

  That's fine.

• 25:45Bill Simmons?

  And I want to be able. And by the way, we should be able to bet that. They don't have the exact order of draft things yet because I think it's too far away. They they usually do it two weeks before the draft. I want it now.

• 25:54Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 25:54Bill Simmons?

  We're within a month. Like fucking put it up. Let's go.

• 25:57Speaker 01

  Right.

• 25:58Bill Simmons?

  I want to bet all kinds of scenarios.

• 26:00Speaker 01

  Bangs his shoulder on the fridge, separates it much like Abdul Carter.

• 26:04Bill Simmons?

  Hey, come on. That's fine. All right. AFC South.

• 26:11Bill Simmons?

  Now they're playing the AFC West and the NFC West this year. What are your thoughts on that?

• 26:15Speaker 01

  Uh, I think that's a that's fine. I think that's fine. They they play themselves. So that's what's that's what's good.

• 26:25Bill Simmons?

  That was a tepid endorsement.

• 26:27Speaker 01

  Well, you know what? I'm also looking at so so let's add that up. 33 wins for the AFC East and 35 for the AFC North.

• 26:39Bill Simmons?

  Oof. Okay. Well, that number is about to drop for the AFC. So Hughes did 10 and 7 last year, and then they're playing the West in the West.

• 26:50Bill Simmons?

  Think you could argue they're worse, right? I don't know when Tank Dell's coming back. Diggs is gone. He was gone anyway. They traded Tunsil. They got a second round pick for him. The AFC South, I'm assuming will be a whiff better than it was last year. And they're playing a first place schedule. I wanted to go 10 and a half. And I couldn't get there. I went nine and a half. What'd you do?

• 27:12Speaker 01

  That's what I have. There's a nine and a half. It can't be 10.

• 27:16Bill Simmons?

  We'll see. I, I did think about the round 10. Yep. Nine and a half. Ooh. Breaking.

• 27:22Speaker 01

  You got it, right?

• 27:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Not only do we get it right. Minus 160 on the under. So that's the biggest. So the most action we've seen so far is the, is that. Minus 160. Vegas doesn't like Houston.

• 27:38Speaker 01

  They're a weird team, right?

• 27:40Bill Simmons?

  Fired their offensive coordinator?

• 27:42Speaker 01

  Yeah. They should mow through this division and they were in how confident were we in CJ Stroud last year? And then we didn't get that confidence back into like the first round of the playoffs. So.

• 27:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 27:52Speaker 01

  It's strange. They signed a lot of one-year players. Cam Robinson, Danell Hunter, Trent Brown. We'll see what happens.

• 27:59Bill Simmons?

  Indianapolis, eight and nine last year. Second place schedule. Um, our guy, the bundle is a little higher on the Anthony Richardson. Don't count this guy out. He was banged up last year.

• 28:10Speaker 01

  This is his team, right?

• 28:11Bill Simmons?

  Going to be the FU comeback year for Richardson.

• 28:14Speaker 01

  Hmm.

• 28:15Bill Simmons?

  Uh, if that doesn't happen, Daniel Dimes is right behind him. What'd you go?

• 28:19Speaker 01

  I want to have a strong opinion about Jones. I, I, I'm not there yet, but I feel like, and I have no reason to support him. But maybe that was a, as disastrous a situation as you could come from.

• 28:31Bill Simmons?

  Going to New York Giants. Torn ACL Giants. Yeah.

• 28:34Speaker 01

  And now coming to the Colts? Maybe, maybe that's a good deal.

• 28:38Bill Simmons?

  Oh, sounds like you like it. I have seven and a half. What'd you have?

• 28:41Speaker 01

  Uh, we're on, we're on par here. Seven and a half for me too.

• 28:45Bill Simmons?

  And it's seven and a half and minus 110 both ways. Not a lot of Colts action.

• 28:49Speaker 01

  These are good.

• 28:49Bill Simmons?

  All right. So you're still up plus two on me, but we've nailed the last couple. Okay. This one was a hard one. Jacksonville, third place schedule. West and West, four and 13 last year.

• 29:02Bill Simmons?

  You know, I, I, I don't know what this team does. I don't understand it. You're like, they waive Christian Kirk and then just sign another receiver for the money and now they're paying two, two fine receivers a double salary, basically.

• 29:17Speaker 01

  You're not excited about the Ami Brown?

• 29:19Bill Simmons?

  I'm not. Uh, fifth pick in the draft.

• 29:25Bill Simmons?

  Could be Gentey. Could be Tyler Warren. Everybody likes him as like an awesome tight end. They just keep throwing resources at the receiver position and it never happens. But, uh, I was, I was between five and a half and six and a half for this. New coach was the big thing for me. And I went six and a half. What'd you have?

• 29:45Speaker 01

  Did I go too high with seven and a half? I just feel like all these teams are the same.

• 29:49Bill Simmons?

  You did not go too high. Seven and a half.

• 29:51Speaker 01

  Whoa, Simba, you could quit now. You want to cash out? Hit the cash out button.

• 29:56Bill Simmons?

  Is there a bet back? What's that bet back thing? Fendel has, um, not only is it seven and a half, minus 130. So, action on the Jaguars. What am I missing?

• 30:05Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 30:06Bill Simmons?

  What are we missing? Just bad division?

• 30:08Speaker 01

  Bad, the, bad division, bad owner though, too. Like, that's why you can't ever take them. Like, it doesn't ever seem to work out for them. Injuries or anything.

• 30:17Speaker 01

  But I thought they were about the same as the Colts. I mean, they shouldn't be that much less than the Colts.

• 30:24Bill Simmons?

  Our agent, James Baby Doll Dixon.

• 30:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, babe.

• 30:27Bill Simmons?

  Likes to wish luck from people. Wish luck to some people from time to time. Some people recently got some luck.

• 30:33Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 30:34Bill Simmons?

  Some, yeah, there's some people in the Hollywood industry who might have, might have been phased out of their jobs. There was, luck was wished by James Baby Doll Dixon. Uh, I wish a lot, I wish everyone a lot of luck going over Jacksonville minus seven and a half. I'm just telling you right now, that's insane. I don't see it at all. You really have to believe, this is the year with Lawrence. It's like, it's now year six. Like,

• 30:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 30:57Bill Simmons?

  I'm not saying it's not going to happen with him, but I'm not betting that scenario, right?

• 31:02Speaker 01

  I don't like it either, but you know, it, it all ends up being like, they come up with a number of how many games they'll be favored in, right? And so that's probably it. Playing that garbage division, they'll be favored in every home game and they'll be favored against a couple NFC West teams.

• 31:17Bill Simmons?

  At least two of the home games. One of the, yeah, okay. Tennessee, three and 14 last year, West and West, fourth place schedule. Cam Ward, we're assuming they take him first.

• 31:29Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 31:31Bill Simmons?

  I don't know their offensive line situation, if it's much better than it was last year.

• 31:36Bill Simmons?

  I, I, I was trying to think, is this, is this the safest bet to be the worst team in the league in the AFC next year? Tennessee. Is there any team you like less?

• 31:46Speaker 01

  No, and I don't know why I put this at five and a half. I think I regret that because they, they could make it nice and easy and well, I don't, I don't want to sway you, but did you go low?

• 31:55Bill Simmons?

  No, I, I had so initially I penciled in five and a half and then after I did all the divisions for the AFC and I was like, man, who's the worst team? Like there's gonna, we see this every year. There's a four and a half, there's a three and a half, and there's none of those in the AFC that I had and I, so I ended up with a four and a half. So we will see. The answer is five and a half.

• 32:18Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 32:18Bill Simmons?

  Okay. Nailed me again.

• 32:20Speaker 01

  This is my new thing. This is my jam. Let's just do, keep doing this every week.

• 32:25Bill Simmons?

  Not only is it five and a half, it's up to minus 130.

• 32:29Speaker 01

  I wouldn't go over on that at all.

• 32:31Bill Simmons?

  So if you're doing that, you're expecting Cam Ward to get drafted and be good right away?

• 32:35Speaker 01

  Right.

• 32:37Bill Simmons?

  And you're gonna say like rookie Cam Ward is significantly better than Will Levis, which it's not inconceivable.

• 32:43Speaker 01

  No, I, I'm still having nightmares of that game one. I bet against Caleb Williams, who was supposed to be the rookie. I bet Will Levis had a giant lead on the Bears and then Will Levis is throwing passes from his ass.

• 32:54Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 32:55Speaker 01

  Staring at pick sixes. It's just, it's just not.

• 32:58Bill Simmons?

  My favorite with that with you is when you then get mad at Will Levis, like this was his fault, like you bet on him.

• 33:04Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 33:04Bill Simmons?

  It's like, I can't believe this Will Levis. It's like, you can't? No signs at all? He might shouldn't have been today?

• 33:11Speaker 01

  He threw the game. If we would have write down three games that players threw, quote, whatever. I know, Fanduel, we're not getting in trouble. That's the one.

• 33:18Bill Simmons?

  Felt like what it would have looked like if somebody actually, yeah, I see.

• 33:22Speaker 01

  Right. If you had had me to make a movie about it, that's what it would look like. Yeah.

• 33:26Bill Simmons?

  Well, here's the thing. We only had the Jets at five and a half, Cleveland at five and a half and Tennessee at five and a half so far. We have no four and halves.

• 33:34Speaker 01

  Uh huh.

• 33:35Bill Simmons?

  So one of those three will be at four and a half by like June or July, because that's just how this shit goes.

• 33:39Speaker 01

  That's right. That's fair. So just to recap, East 33 wins, North 35, South 30.

• 33:48Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 33:51Bill Simmons?

  Going to the AFC West.

• 33:56Bill Simmons?

  Which might be good for all we know.

• 34:00Bill Simmons?

  Kansas City 15 and 2 last year.

• 34:04Bill Simmons?

  Playing the AFC South in the NFC East.

• 34:09Bill Simmons?

  So you're talking.

• 34:12Bill Simmons?

  Giants are gonna suck. Three of those AFC South teams might suck. Houston might not be very good. Sorry, your Dallas team might not be very good. And Washington and Philly would be the two hard games out of those eight. And but they'll have the first place schedule. They're gonna be in all the night games, but that's about as good of a. Is there a better division draw than AFC South, NFC East? Maybe West, NFC West, AFC South?

• 34:34Speaker 01

  That's pretty good.

• 34:35Bill Simmons?

  Those would be two of the three I would want.

• 34:37Speaker 01

  One of the teams has both Souths. I think that's in the NFC, but one of the divisions, but.

• 34:42Bill Simmons?

  So I went a. I went 12 and a half for this.

• 34:46Speaker 01

  That's what I did. And I wonder if it's even light. Tell me what it is.

• 34:50Bill Simmons?

  It's light. It's 11 and a half.

• 34:52Speaker 01

  That's wrong. That's very weird.

• 34:56Bill Simmons?

  Do your spiel. Just do it. You do it every year.

• 34:58Speaker 01

  Well, just to bet Chiefs at 6 to 1, bet Mahomes 6 to 1.

• 35:02Bill Simmons?

  Just do, do all of them.

• 35:04Speaker 01

  Well, first of all, like everything you say, they go through it. It's 15 frigging wins last year. Every year they have a first place schedule. Every year they possibly play the first Thursday night game. Every year they're gonna play on Christmas. Every year they're gonna have six prime time games. And they end up with 13, 14, 15 wins. How do you make this 11 and a half? They won the division by four games last year. All right, the Chargers might be a little better. Raiders a tiny bit better. Is Denver gonna be better? I'm all in on over 11 and a half. That's, that is embarrassing. That's bold and boring material.

• 35:39Bill Simmons?

  Super Bowl 7 to 1 for them. Mahomes 8 to 1 MVP.

• 35:43Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 35:45Bill Simmons?

  At the Mahomes layaway MVP bet plan, was that your idea or houses? I can't remember.

• 35:50Speaker 01

  I mean, it's, I'm not gonna, it's just so, it should be out there for everybody. I, I just do it.

• 35:55Bill Simmons?

  Just say bet that every year and it'll win three out of five times.

• 35:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, the KCD, like a CD, like a, a, a savings book, but yeah, that's right. You're not gonna wait seven or eight years to cash in on those.

• 36:07Bill Simmons?

  Or Chiefs plus three, six to win the conference. Just do it. Just do it every year. You win three out of the four years and you're getting incredible multiples on your, on your wagers.

• 36:17Speaker 01

  And they had a decent offseason with the free agents. They lost Tooney, but they, you know, they got Nick Bolt. They extended Bolton, Jalen Moore, Trey Smith, they franchise tag. They're gonna be fine.

• 36:29Bill Simmons?

  Um, I'm marking that one down. I feel like that's 11 and a half. That's 11 and a half for what? Another week? Come on. What are we doing? Chargers 11 and 6, second place schedule, AFC South, NFC East. And, uh, I don't know, they lost some guys. Now, some guys weren't playing full seasons for them.

• 36:53Speaker 01

  Right.

• 36:53Bill Simmons?

  The wide receiver room, we'll see what they do in the draft. Running back, I don't know. There's some scope position stuff. Last year, easy schedule, overachieved. Didn't, the season did not end great and, uh, and yet I felt like it's gonna be 10 and a half because of Harbaugh and Herbert. What'd you have?

• 37:16Speaker 01

  Wow, I had nine and a half. I don't know.

• 37:20Speaker 01

  I think that's tough.

• 37:20Bill Simmons?

  And you hit it again. You're up four on that. Jesus.

• 37:24Speaker 01

  Wow, look at this. Look at this.

• 37:27Bill Simmons?

  Nine and a half.

• 37:28Speaker 01

  10 and a half, huh? If the Chiefs are 11 and a half and you thought, uh, I don't know.

• 37:35Speaker 01

  They're still the Chargers, remember, right?

• 37:38Bill Simmons?

  That, so my thinking was the Harbaugh year too. With he, they weren't supposed to be as good as they were last year, but they were able to on the fly add some dudes, make some, and now like one more free agency and draft.

• 37:51Bill Simmons?

  Could the arrow be pointing up? But Vegas is saying no.

• 37:54Speaker 01

  I don't want to screw anything up, but I know some Chargers people. They like the tight end out of Michigan. Lovely.

• 38:01Bill Simmons?

  Oh, okay.

• 38:01Speaker 01

  That could be a nice little thing for them.

• 38:03Bill Simmons?

  Denver was 10 and 7 last year, playing a third place schedule because the Chargers passed them. That's helpful.

• 38:09Speaker 01

  Right.

• 38:10Bill Simmons?

  And we have them AFC South, NFC East.

• 38:14Bill Simmons?

  I went eight and a half. Where'd you go?

• 38:16Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm right there with you. Eight and a half. It's gotta be eight and a half.

• 38:20Bill Simmons?

  It's eight and a half.

• 38:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 38:22Bill Simmons?

  Minus 105. So just a whiff of action on that one toward the under. And then last but not least. This one's a hard one. The Las Vegas Raiders to get Geno Smith. And they got rid of our guy Antonio Pierce.

• 38:38Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 38:40Bill Simmons?

  Who I don't feel like is probably getting hired anytime soon for another head gig. Just be my guess.

• 38:47Bill Simmons?

  And they replaced him with a pumped in Jack P. Carroll.

• 38:50Speaker 01

  Right.

• 38:52Speaker 01

  Lot of gum chewing. Max Crosby gets extended.

• 38:56Bill Simmons?

  Fourth place schedule.

• 38:59Bill Simmons?

  Plus AFC South, plus NFC East. And by your theory, you think at least in the home games, they might be favored like five times.

• 39:07Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:09Bill Simmons?

  I went five and a half.

• 39:11Speaker 01

  Oh, I went a little higher. There was six and a half last year. I think they may perceive this Geno Smith thing as an upgrade, even though they didn't have, they only have four ones. I said six and a half.

• 39:21Bill Simmons?

  And you nailed it exactly. And not only did you nail it, uh, minus 130 now action on the Raiders. I should have seen that one.

• 39:29Speaker 01

  Interesting.

• 39:30Bill Simmons?

  You're killing me. You beat me by five.

• 39:33Speaker 01

  So this is the

• 39:34Bill Simmons?

  I'm firing all my scouts and my, all my helpers and I've got to, I don't know why I'm just off left and right. Or here's the thing. Maybe I'm not off. Maybe we'll look back in, in December and be like, oh, Simmons' first instinct. Maybe we should have

• 39:49Speaker 01

  Well, that's what you should do. You should, you should mark your biggest differences and say, hey, that's, that's gonna be. So 36 wins for that division. That's the tops. That's more than the AFC North projected. 36 for the West.

• 40:01Bill Simmons?

  And by the way, God bless Pete Carroll, but he's in his mid 70s. Geno Smith, 34 years old. I'm not sure if they, offensive line, would you even go C plus on the offensive line? That was we like.

• 40:16Bill Simmons?

  But yeah, there was a lot of work left with that team.

• 40:19Speaker 01

  They're still fourth best in the division and they're still two games behind Denver, according to this, so.

• 40:24Bill Simmons?

  I mean, they just drew the short straw with that division is the big issue.

• 40:27Speaker 01

  Right.

• 40:28Bill Simmons?

  Six games, all those games are gonna stink. All right, one more break and then we'll do the NFC. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association Member, FTIC.

• 41:13Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun, sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead, but what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun, 1-2-3 Cancun, or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save, savings vary. All right, during that commercial break, I licked my wounds, I fired two people and trying to come back, there's only 16 teams left and you're up five. You found your calling, you found the perfect game.

• 41:55Speaker 01

  What was his name? Duke was in your corner and he almost didn't let you out for the seventh round here. And you're like, no, no, no, don't you dare throw that towel in, but all right, let's see what you got.

• 42:05Bill Simmons?

  He thinks it's a damn show, thinks it's a damn fight.

• 42:09Bill Simmons?

  Philadelphia are defending Super Bowl champions. I know that kills you just to hear those words.

• 42:15Speaker 01

  Ugh, disgusting.

• 42:17Bill Simmons?

  And guess what? They have endless amounts of money to just, I know they lost some starters. They didn't lose any of like their best eight or nine guys.

• 42:24Speaker 01

  I'm with you, man. It doesn't make sense. I don't care. I get people, you know, I have smart people telling me, oh, just follow the money. It's like, no.

• 42:32Bill Simmons?

  Just roll it over and just keep rolling it over and the bills do eventually. Okay, cool.

• 42:37Speaker 01

  Creative accounting. It's what the Niners did. Yeah, just, I know it's sour grapes, but whatever.

• 42:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they're paying 50 million a year for the QB, 57 million for the two receivers.

• 42:47Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 42:47Bill Simmons?

  And now 12 million a year for Saquon Barkley. Somehow that's all legal under the cap. They have Jalen Carter coming. They paid Bond who's like, oh yeah, oh my God, somebody's gonna grab him. Nope, they kept him.

• 42:57Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 42:58Bill Simmons?

  But I get the model because you have to just keep nailing the draft. You let the veterans go and you move those draft picks you move in and it makes sense. It's just, it's just weird, but when the salary cap goes up 30 million every year. I just can't believe any team can afford two primetime receivers and a quarterback.

• 43:14Speaker 01

  The receivers thing. Yeah, the Cowboys did that. They would be 90 million over the cap. Like, we just want to pay three guys and we can't do it. So.

• 43:23Bill Simmons?

  Right. But, but maybe you can pay the three guys. Maybe that's the lesson. You pay Parsons, Lamb and Dak and everybody else could pay three guys. Why can't you pay three guys?

• 43:32Speaker 01

  Just draft Georgia offensive lineman and defensive tackles and in two, three years, they'll all work out. They'll be fine. They'll dominate.

• 43:40Bill Simmons?

  What was your reaction to the, whatever was going on on the social media the last 24 hours with the guy claiming that Dak might get traded to the Cleveland Browns?

• 43:49Speaker 01

  I just ignored it. I ignored it. I, I, you know.

• 43:52Bill Simmons?

  Can't even figure out how that would work.

• 43:53Speaker 01

  Well, you know, it's like, you know, when we have friends telling us, you gotta bet this, you gotta bet this. And depending on the friend, you're like, no, I'm gonna stay away. That's kind of how I was with this rumor mill. Like whoever was passing it along. I was like, oh, that guy has no credibility. This is dumb. But yeah, that.

• 44:08Bill Simmons?

  So the thing would be you would take Deshaun's. Contract and trade Dak and just get killed for a year, but you would then be able to reset your I don't even get, but now you wouldn't have a quarterback?

• 44:19Speaker 01

  They would, they would have to lead Jerry off in handcuffs, a straight Jack, the, the, the guys at the White Coast would just have to take him away at that point.

• 44:29Bill Simmons?

  He's like, I've traded Dak Prescott for Deshaun and a future second round pick and I'm going to become a professional actor.

• 44:35Speaker 01

  Right.

• 44:36Bill Simmons?

  Taylor Sheridan is building a new show around me as an aging NFL owner who's lost his mind.

• 44:42Speaker 01

  Take three, three cheerleaders of your choice too. I'm out of here. Whatever you want.

• 44:47Bill Simmons?

  Philadelphia 14 and three last year. Yikes.

• 44:51Speaker 01

  That's not true, is it?

• 44:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Playing the NFC, NFC North in the AFC West. That's pretty hard.

• 45:00Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 45:01Bill Simmons?

  So your easiest games are Vegas and Chicago out of those eight.

• 45:04Speaker 01

  God, I love that.

• 45:05Bill Simmons?

  Not to mention first place schedule. They're playing Thursday, the first game of the year.

• 45:11Speaker 01

  Not to mention, no one ever wins this division two years in a row. You're just not allowed.

• 45:16Bill Simmons?

  I, I, I really wanted to go 12 and a half and I couldn't do it. And I'm going 11 and a half.

• 45:21Speaker 01

  That's where I'm, it's gotta be 11 and a half.

• 45:24Bill Simmons?

  And it's 11 and a half.

• 45:27Speaker 01

  This is the best.

• 45:27Bill Simmons?

  Even money both ways.

• 45:29Speaker 01

  I can't, I swear I'm not cheating.

• 45:34Bill Simmons?

  Philly minus 165 to win the division, by the way. Oh, just for the record, since we did the AFC ones, Casey's minus 150. Texans plus 140, Baltimore minus 135 and the Bills are minus 210.

• 45:48Speaker 01

  Those are new too. Those divisions weren't up till today either. That's great.

• 45:51Bill Simmons?

  Oh, really?

• 45:52Speaker 01

  Yeah. That's great. No, they just had conference and, um, and Superbowl.

• 45:57Bill Simmons?

  Pat's plus 650.

• 46:01Bill Simmons?

  Uh, Bengals plus 190. So it looks like the opportunity would be the AFC South. If you can talk yourself into the Colts of plus 290 and I'm not sure I want to talk myself into that. Plus 290, I don't know.

• 46:13Speaker 01

  What'd you say Texans were? 160 or something?

• 46:16Bill Simmons?

  Texans are plus 140, Jags are plus 250.

• 46:19Speaker 01

  Plus 140 Texans.

• 46:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I don't like the Texans.

• 46:22Speaker 01

  We can't bet the Souths. Come on, let's not do it.

• 46:26Bill Simmons?

  And then Chargers plus 330 and Broncos plus 490. Raiders 12 to 1 if you want to get excited about that. For your division, well, let's do the over runners first.

• 46:38Bill Simmons?

  All right, coming back. So we have Washington.

• 46:43Bill Simmons?

  12 and 5 last year. I forgot they won that many games. I knew they were a playoff team, but shit.

• 46:50Bill Simmons?

  That's an unbelievable record. The Pats got 12 and 5. I'm gonna lose my mind.

• 46:54Speaker 01

  Their over under was 6 and 1/2 and they won 12 games.

• 46:57Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah. They almost doubled it.

• 46:59Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 47:00Bill Simmons?

  Second place schedule, NFC North, AFC West. I battled between 9 and 1/2 and 10 and 1/2 for this and I went 10 and 1/2.

• 47:08Speaker 01

  All right, I upped it from 9 and 1/2 to 10. So I have 10, you have 10 and 1/2.

• 47:14Bill Simmons?

  Motherfucker, 9 and 1/2.

• 47:16Speaker 01

  Really? Wow. Wow, no trust.

• 47:20Bill Simmons?

  Little action on the under too. Minus 120 under. Interesting.

• 47:26Speaker 01

  In a dumb way here, like, you know, like they give Ertz and Debo, I don't. Is he gonna make a difference? Laramie Tunsil, I feel like they, Houston gave him up too easily. Maybe there's something there more than Bobby Wagner. Some of these signings, Kinlaw, I don't know.

• 47:44Bill Simmons?

  How is this team 3 wins worse if Daniels is healthy?

• 47:49Bill Simmons?

  Let's say, let's say he plays the whole year. How would, how would they not be a 10 win team?

• 47:54Speaker 01

  Oh, 3 worse because they won 12. Yeah.

• 47:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they won 12. And they won in the playoffs. And now, now 9 and 1/2 is their over under? That seems weird to me. I think they're anticipating the schedule is gonna be harder, but that's kinda nuts.

• 48:07Speaker 01

  I wonder if they look at like point differential from last year, like were those really, was that really a 12 win year or wasn't, you know?

• 48:14Bill Simmons?

  Also, really good coaching staff.

• 48:17Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 48:17Bill Simmons?

  Nobody left. They kept everybody.

• 48:20Speaker 01

  Mm-hmm.

• 48:21Bill Simmons?

  That's a weird one. I'm gonna mark that one down. So plus 100 over 9 and 1/2 wins for them right now.

• 48:28Bill Simmons?

  The Cowboys.

• 48:31Bill Simmons?

  Did you go eight, nine, or seven and 10 last year? What did we decide?

• 48:33Speaker 01

  You tried to give me an extra win. They were seven and 10. Disgusting.

• 48:37Bill Simmons?

  Seven and 10.

• 48:40Bill Simmons?

  Playing the NFC North and the AFC West in Philly and Washington four times. And that was enough for me to go seven and a half.

• 48:48Speaker 01

  Oh, I bumped it to eight. I figured this is a team that won 12 games three years in a row. They fell apart last year. This is America's team. They can't give everyone free money. I have eight. What is it?

• 49:01Bill Simmons?

  Seven and a half. Here comes the comeback, baby. I'm back down to minus five. Seven and a half and plus 100 on the over. I like the under.

• 49:11Speaker 01

  Embarrassing, man.

• 49:13Bill Simmons?

  Why are you guys gonna be good? What's the case?

• 49:15Speaker 01

  Because we were selectively aggressive during the free agent period. We extended Osa. We got Fowler, a guy had 10 and a half sacks last year.

• 49:25Bill Simmons?

  What does selectively aggressive mean? Is that even? I've never heard that phrase in my life.

• 49:29Speaker 01

  I'm telling you, exactly what it is. You sign Javante Williams and Miles Sanders. You get your punt, not only your punter, your punt returner and your long snapper tied up. You get that? We're good. Seven and a half. Wow.

• 49:43Bill Simmons?

  Might have to bring Baby Doll back in to wish you a lot of luck.

• 49:48Speaker 01

  This was a 12-year team two years ago, the 12-win team.

• 49:52Bill Simmons?

  They're not gonna win the Super Bowl in the 2020s, which will mean

• 49:56Speaker 01

  That's fine.

• 49:57Bill Simmons?

  three straight Super Bowl-less decades for you, but at least you have Juan Soto.

• 50:02Speaker 01

  How dare you?

• 50:04Bill Simmons?

  We have Juan Soto. I'm praising you. We're in the Mets hat, opening day of the season today.

• 50:09Speaker 01

  Juan Soto is gonna be the Cowboys quarterback in like three years. You'll see.

• 50:13Bill Simmons?

  New York Giants, three and 14 last year, tough division, plus NFC North, AFC West. And they're paying Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for some reason. Why not pay?

• 50:25Speaker 01

  That's a fun quarterback.

• 50:25Bill Simmons?

  Why not just pick one of those guys?

• 50:27Speaker 01

  Yeah. They gotta get Hard Knocks back in New York. I know Joe Shane's gonna lock his doors, not gonna let anybody in, but they have that, that quarterback room with Jameis, Russ and Tommy DeVito. What laughs? And that's before they even throw any pick sixes.

• 50:42Bill Simmons?

  What did they possibly see from Russell Wilson in the last six games of the season with the Steelers to think he's anything more than like a $5 million quarterback? I do not understand it. What is that? What's the game plan for that? And you have Jameis, who's, I, I would probably rather have Jameis at gunpoint. Wouldn't really want to eat in the room. Who would you rather have? Jameis or Russell Wilson?

• 51:05Speaker 01

  Coin flip. No, I have no reason to pay $10 million.

• 51:07Bill Simmons?

  Coin flip. So you're paying one guy $4 million and the other guy like 20?

• 51:11Speaker 01

  Yeah. I like it. This was my favorite Cowboy signing, the free agency, Russell Wilson to the Giants. It was, it was the best. I mean, honestly, like.

• 51:19Bill Simmons?

  You were selectively aggressive at cheering for it.

• 51:22Speaker 01

  Well, we're not getting 2015 Russell Wilson. He doesn't run. He's bad in the pocket. If that offensive line was anything like it was with Daniel Jones, it's gonna be a disaster for him, right?

• 51:33Bill Simmons?

  It went bad for him in Seattle near the end. He went to Denver, it went so bad that they paid him to go away and then went to the Steelers who completely quit on everybody in the last four weeks of the season. And now you have Dayball and Shane basically trying to save their jobs, telling us, we don't want to take a rookie quarterback three because we won't be here when he starts being good. And now they're, so the Wilson versus Russell is, uh, Wilson versus Winston's nuts.

• 52:01Speaker 01

  But I'm the other way. I'm like, why even keep Dayball around? Cause you're not gonna win with this team and this is gonna be his last year, right? This, this Russell Wilson thing. I mean, they're a mess. They offered Darius Slayton more money than they did Saquon.

• 52:13Bill Simmons?

  What was that?

• 52:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 52:16Bill Simmons?

  I picked four and a half for this. I think this is gonna be our first four or three.

• 52:21Speaker 01

  I'm gonna say five. I don't even know why, but.

• 52:24Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 52:27Bill Simmons?

  Five and a half. You win again.

• 52:29Speaker 01

  Is it really?

• 52:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 52:33Bill Simmons?

  I might want to book that five and a half from people.

• 52:36Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's a disaster. What's the division odds?

• 52:41Bill Simmons?

  Division odds.

• 52:44Bill Simmons?

  Giants 20 to 1. Is that the biggest one we've had so far? Cleveland's 23 to 1. Dallas 7 to 1. Washington plus 250, Eagles minus 165. I like, don't mind that Washington total.

• 52:56Speaker 01

  Washington's a play.

• 52:57Bill Simmons?

  I don't mind that one at all. Okay, NFC North.

• 53:00Speaker 01

  So, so the NFC East 34 wins, AFC East 33. I don't know about that.

• 53:08Bill Simmons?

  I don't agree with that Giants number at all. In fact, I'm gonna make my first like market down prediction. I think that's four and a half by the summer.

• 53:16Speaker 01

  Right.

• 53:16Bill Simmons?

  I don't think that stays there.

• 53:18Speaker 01

  Can I tell a quick story? Been in Vegas. So I bet the Giants to have the worst record in the league last year. And they were 3 and 14, right? But it tied with three other teams. So it's a four-way split. So I go to cash this. I don't have to say what casino this is. But I go to cash it in. So I should, you know, I was about to win $1,300. So if you split it four ways, I win 300 and change. So I presented to the counter. It's a miracle. I'm cashing a futures ticket from last year. And the guy's like, nope, this is a loser. I was like, well, how is this a loser? I pull up on my phone. There's four teams with three, with three wins. Then he brings this guy over. Couldn't have been older than 19 years old. He's got this thing that resembles a phone that he's looking into. The Giants lose on a tiebreaker to the Browns.

• 54:03Speaker 01

  And he lists six tie-breaking scenarios and they lost on the sixth tiebreaker. I was like, wait a minute. Isn't this dead heat rules? And it was like, no, we don't do Teddy, sir. This is how we do it. And you lost on the sixth tiebreaker. I'm like, all right, I don't even know what you're looking into, by the way. You could be, you know, you could be, I'm not sure what you could be, but, and I hate when they're indignant about it like,

• 54:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 54:24Speaker 01

  Like TSA is, like when you fly from, and they're like, you have to take your laptop out, like, all right, well, I just flew in from Fort Worth and I didn't have to. And they're like, they're so dickish about it. But anyway, I lost because of the sixth tiebreaker.

• 54:39Bill Simmons?

  That feels like fraud.

• 54:41Speaker 01

  I know. It's like all this rooting I did for nothing.

• 54:45Bill Simmons?

  Kind of wish you would name the casino, but.

• 54:48Speaker 01

  Um, all right.

• 54:49Bill Simmons?

  That's unbelievable.

• 54:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 54:51Bill Simmons?

  NFC North Detroit 15 and two last year. That's not happening again. They do play the NFC East and the AFC North. So Giants, that's an easy game. Maybe your team's easy.

• 55:07Speaker 01

  Steelers.

• 55:08Bill Simmons?

  Browns easy, maybe Steelers are easy if they don't get a quarterback.

• 55:14Bill Simmons?

  A lot of trouble with this. I'm going to say 11 and a half.

• 55:17Speaker 01

  That's what I have. 11 and a half. Is it higher?

• 55:22Bill Simmons?

  It is 10 and a half.

• 55:25Speaker 01

  That's bad. That's wrong.

• 55:28Bill Simmons?

  Well, I'll tell you this much. There's, there's a action on the under of all things.

• 55:34Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 55:36Bill Simmons?

  Minus 140. Under 10 and a half.

• 55:41Speaker 01

  I'm sorry. That's wrong. This team had the year from hell injury wise. You're not going to find a worse example of like a, a, a team that was plagued with injuries and they won 15 games. And now you're taking four and a half games off their total. They can get their whole defense back. I know the division's tough.

• 55:58Bill Simmons?

  They lost both coordinators.

• 56:00Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 56:01Bill Simmons?

  That's not nothing.

• 56:02Speaker 01

  Right.

• 56:02Bill Simmons?

  They, uh, they had a horrible end to the season.

• 56:07Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 56:08Bill Simmons?

  And.

• 56:09Speaker 01

  They lose Cal Davis to your team. Four and a half wins.

• 56:13Bill Simmons?

  They replaced them though. They replaced them with a cornerback. Everybody likes.

• 56:16Speaker 01

  They did. Yeah.

• 56:17Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. And we haven't seen the draft yet.

• 56:20Speaker 01

  I like the over. I'm saying I like the over. Why is that four and a half different? Like Minnesota is not going to win 14 games. So they'll, right? I don't, I don't even know that the division's better.

• 56:31Bill Simmons?

  So you would bet the Lions plus 120 at over 10 and a half right now?

• 56:35Speaker 01

  Yeah. 11 and six.

• 56:38Bill Simmons?

  I really liked that one too. I almost, that line's so suspicious. I almost feel like we don't know something.

• 56:44Speaker 01

  Right.

• 56:45Bill Simmons?

  Like, what do they know that we don't know? That?

• 56:48Speaker 01

  Dan Campbell bit all the kneecaps off. There's none left.

• 56:52Bill Simmons?

  Dan Campbell has been deranged all off season.

• 56:58Bill Simmons?

  Minnesota was 14 and 3 last year.

• 57:01Speaker 01

  This is so hard.

• 57:01Bill Simmons?

  And they changed their quarterback from the great Sam Darnold to J.J. McCarthy, who we have not seen play NFL yet.

• 57:10Bill Simmons?

  Tougher schedule, second place. I can't, this is the low, biggest drop off, 14 and 3, but I went 9 and 1/2 for them. I don't see how it can be in the 10s.

• 57:20Speaker 01

  I went 8 and 1/2. I think this is an impossible one to pick. I think 9 and 8 would be good for them.

• 57:28Bill Simmons?

  You motherfucker.

• 57:29Speaker 01

  Is it?

• 57:30Bill Simmons?

  8 and 1/2.

• 57:31Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 57:33Bill Simmons?

  That is plus 115 right now. Wow, you're really good at this. Guessing the over unders, your final destiny. This is it. You found the gimmick. We've been podcasting since 07. You figured it out. Unbelievable.

• 57:49Speaker 01

  I did it. You're gonna have to pull me in 10.

• 57:51Bill Simmons?

  You've already, I think you've clinched. I think I'd have to like get all the rest ones just to tie you.

• 57:56Speaker 01

  That's it.

• 57:57Bill Simmons?

  What a, what a beating this was. Yeah, so that is a full-fledged, we don't trust J.J. McCarthy number.

• 58:03Speaker 01

  So that's the biggest drop off, 5 and 1/2? From 14 to 8 and 1/2?

• 58:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, 5 and 1/2 drop off and J.J. McCarthy might be good.

• 58:11Speaker 01

  Right, right.

• 58:13Bill Simmons?

  Vikings, dare I say a little, nobody believes in us.

• 58:16Speaker 01

  And there's still some Aaron Rodgers.

• 58:18Bill Simmons?

  14 and 3 last year. A lot of the guys are still in this locker room. They went 14 and 3.

• 58:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 58:24Bill Simmons?

  All right, Green Bay. They went 11 and 6 last year.

• 58:29Bill Simmons?

  Third place schedule and I'll probably regret this, but I went 9 and 1/2. I did think about the 10 and 1/2.

• 58:35Speaker 01

  It's gotta be 9 and 1/2.

• 58:37Bill Simmons?

  And it's 9 and 1/2, but.

• 58:39Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 58:40Bill Simmons?

  Plus 115 on the over. So they're minus 135 on the under.

• 58:46Speaker 01

  I think that's just right for them.

• 58:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So division odds now, Detroit plus 110. Green Bay plus 250. Bears plus 450 and Minnesota with the worst.

• 59:01Bill Simmons?

  Odds of anyone at plus 550. But I should have done that before we did, after we did the Bears.

• 59:06Speaker 01

  Right. Well, now you're gonna, you can maybe lock in there.

• 59:10Bill Simmons?

  Maybe I can cheat.

• 59:13Bill Simmons?

  Well, I had eight and a half for them anyway. They're five and 12 last year. NFC East, AFC North.

• 59:20Bill Simmons?

  They spent a lot of money in the Lions. They're gonna have a high draft pick. And with the way the division's kind of falling back to them a little bit, it seems like an eight and a half. What'd you have?

• 59:30Speaker 01

  I went nine only because it was nine last year, right? Like, wasn't that weird? Remember, we were betting them not to make the playoff. Do we bet them under nine? Or do we bet them not to make the playoffs? I feel like they're in love with the Bears. The fans are in love with the Bears. I know they fixed that offensive line.

• 59:46Speaker 01

  I have nine.

• 59:47Bill Simmons?

  It is eight and a half.

• 59:48Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 59:49Bill Simmons?

  Plus 120 for the over on that one.

• 59:56Speaker 01

  Not touching that. Not touching.

• 59:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but that is a, that is a stay A way. Okay.

• 1:00:02Speaker 01

  So 19 and 18. So that's 37 wins. Is that the most? That's the most for any division. Yeah.

• 1:00:12Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right. It's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with the experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside.

• 1:00:57Bill Simmons?

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• 1:01:44Bill Simmons?

  Playing the NFC West and the AFC East. So potentially. I, I, I don't really love anybody in the NFC West and we might not love three of the four teams in the AFC East. So this is a nice little scenario.

• 1:01:57Speaker 01

  To make it a break. Yeah.

• 1:01:58Bill Simmons?

  For the South and then, uh. You know, they're bringing their receivers back, bringing the team back. It felt like a nine and a half to me, Sal.

• 1:02:07Speaker 01

  Oh, really? Oh, I don't think you can make any of these teams over eight and a half.

• 1:02:12Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:02:13Speaker 01

  That's what I did.

• 1:02:15Bill Simmons?

  And you were correct. Eight and a half.

• 1:02:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, you should.

• 1:02:18Bill Simmons?

  This is like.

• 1:02:19Speaker 01

  This is embarrassing for you.

• 1:02:20Bill Simmons?

  This, I'm at the stage now where I'm bringing the shortstop to pitch the night thing.

• 1:02:26Bill Simmons?

  He's starting his knuckleball.

• 1:02:28Speaker 01

  I mean, this could be a, just a giant Bill Simmons meme for 90 minutes. This is great.

• 1:02:33Bill Simmons?

  It's, I'm gonna make the Walton Goggins finding out that his, his friend had sex with everyone Thailand face.

• 1:02:41Bill Simmons?

  Minus 125 action for the Bucks, FYI.

• 1:02:45Speaker 01

  Can't do it. No South, no South talk till week 12.

• 1:02:49Bill Simmons?

  New Orleans, oh no, not New Orleans. Uh, Atlanta is next. So they're playing a second place schedule, plus the NFC West, plus the AFC East. And they went eight and nine last year. Full year of Pennix. I put eight, eight and a half for these guys.

• 1:03:07Speaker 01

  Little, this is a weird off season already. I just went eight.

• 1:03:12Bill Simmons?

  I don't know why you keep doing the round numbers, but I'm not going to question your process since you're beating me by six teams. Seven and a half is our answer. Wow, you won that one too, motherfucker.

• 1:03:24Speaker 01

  I mean, that's just so much is up in the air with his cousins and they lose their center.

• 1:03:28Bill Simmons?

  I was feeling so good after my 27 and five, but now I'm in shambles.

• 1:03:31Speaker 01

  No, you're good.

• 1:03:32Bill Simmons?

  Such a good year last year that I lose the Super Bowl, I get killed, KC, and now, now my whole, that thing's falling apart. Maybe the under should be me. I think I've dropped by five wins.

• 1:03:42Speaker 01

  This doesn't matter. You, you picked the winners 27 times, just picking the number.

• 1:03:47Bill Simmons?

  It matters to me.

• 1:03:47Speaker 01

  I don't know what the hell to do. I don't know what to do with the number.

• 1:03:49Bill Simmons?

  I care about dumb shit like this, so it matters.

• 1:03:52Speaker 01

  You're right.

• 1:03:53Bill Simmons?

  New Orleans, God, are they going to be terrible. Five and 12, NFC West, AFC East, and the third place schedule. And they're in cap hell. They brought back Carr with this weird, well, we're screwed anyway. How about we'll guarantee your money. They have the ninth pick in the draft.

• 1:04:11Speaker 01

  Yeah. Brandon Cooks, Juwan Johnson, same old names.

• 1:04:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. New coach, but they had like the last pick of the coaches. It was like they went to go get a dog from the kennel and every other choice was gone. And they're like, we have this one left. Any interest? I went, I went five and a half and it might be a win too high.

• 1:04:34Speaker 01

  I went round number because I couldn't think about it too much. Six for me.

• 1:04:39Bill Simmons?

  No, you hit it again.

• 1:04:41Speaker 01

  Really?

• 1:04:41Bill Simmons?

  You, you doing this round number thing is bullshit. There's been no round numbers the whole time.

• 1:04:46Speaker 01

  Fandel has round numbers.

• 1:04:48Bill Simmons?

  You're, I, I'm just trying to do this correctly. Can't believe you.

• 1:04:53Speaker 01

  You should try harder.

• 1:04:54Bill Simmons?

  This is like the most you've ever cheated.

• 1:04:56Speaker 01

  There are round numbers. I looked last year.

• 1:04:58Bill Simmons?

  Pick five and a half or six and a half. So I was like, I'll just take six and I'll, it's like Price is Right. You're just gaming the system.

• 1:05:03Speaker 01

  I sent you all the numbers from last year. You could have noticed that there weren't halves on several of them.

• 1:05:08Bill Simmons?

  Well, there, it's six and a half this time. We haven't had a round number yet.

• 1:05:12Speaker 01

  Wait, is it six and a half or six?

• 1:05:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's six and a half. You won because you picked six because you cheated.

• 1:05:17Speaker 01

  Oh, okay. Oh, I see.

• 1:05:19Bill Simmons?

  And then, uh, last one is Carolina.

• 1:05:22Bill Simmons?

  Five and 12 last year somehow. I still can't believe I didn't win my, when I was in Boston that time and I bet the adjusted under four and a half wins for them and somehow Bryce Young came in and just

• 1:05:35Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:05:35Bill Simmons?

  smoked it. They ended up with five wins. I lost. I still, and the other one was the adjusted under on the Pats, three and a half and, and, uh, Joe Milton came in at the end. Joe Milton?

• 1:05:49Speaker 01

  Yeah. He's gonna be a cowboy.

• 1:05:52Bill Simmons?

  Joe Milton, the, the next to worst quarterback? Anyway, he came in.

• 1:05:56Speaker 01

  By the way, that was nuts. We, we don't think about that enough, that Andy Dalton was, you know, totally content to bring them to another three and 14 year.

• 1:06:05Bill Simmons?

  Then at the car.

• 1:06:05Speaker 01

  Gets in that car accident. You should see if you're covered, your auto insurance covers that bet. Like if you, do you have to pay the deductible?

• 1:06:12Bill Simmons?

  I won't try to find out at the casino you went to.

• 1:06:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:06:15Bill Simmons?

  I went five and a half for the Panthers.

• 1:06:17Speaker 01

  I did too.

• 1:06:19Bill Simmons?

  Okay. The answer is? Six and a half.

• 1:06:23Speaker 01

  No.

• 1:06:24Bill Simmons?

  The hell? What are we doing?

• 1:06:26Speaker 01

  Come on.

• 1:06:27Bill Simmons?

  I don't agree with that at all.

• 1:06:28Speaker 01

  Why are they better than five ones last year?

• 1:06:31Bill Simmons?

  Holy moly.

• 1:06:32Speaker 01

  Where do they pick up this extra two games?

• 1:06:35Bill Simmons?

  Divisions. Tampa plus 135, Atlanta plus 230, New Orleans plus 480, and Carolina, action. Started out in the four slot, but now they're plus 410. People are banging the Panthers. What am I missing?

• 1:06:51Speaker 01

  We may have to do that, but no South talk. Hey, what was your bet last year for the South? They'd have fewer than how many wins?

• 1:06:58Bill Simmons?

  We, one of our locks that we hit was that they would have less than 30 wins, which they did. And then we had an NFC East first, uh, first South bet. And I think just the top two teams in the NFC East almost beat the entire NFC South.

• 1:07:13Speaker 01

  Yeah. So it's 29 this year. If you add the seven and a half, eight and a half, six and a half, six and a half, it's 13 and 16. 29. Hit it again.

• 1:07:22Bill Simmons?

  I gotta be honest, we've done 28 teams. I think my single favorite is New Orleans under six and a half so far.

• 1:07:29Speaker 01

  Is it?

• 1:07:29Bill Simmons?

  Why are they gonna be good? What, what is good about them? What's the case?

• 1:07:35Speaker 01

  Nah, they're all, they're messy. They came out, they're great start last year. They were 2-0, scored like 100 points and then, then they were the Saints.

• 1:07:44Bill Simmons?

  Like if we were to say who's gonna have the worst record in the league next year, they would at least be one of the teams we batted around. All right. NFC West, they're playing the NFC South and the AFC South, which I thought the NFC West, yeah, that's the best draw. I thought the NFC West was probably gonna suck this year, but that made me rethink it. The Rams are in the one spot with the schedule. They were 10-7 last year and, uh, and I, first place schedule on the one hand, but then playing the Souths kinda messed with my head a little bit. I went 10 and a half for them.

• 1:08:17Speaker 01

  Oh, wow. I went nine. So let's see. I know you don't like the round numbers.

• 1:08:23Bill Simmons?

  Nine and a half.

• 1:08:26Speaker 01

  That's me.

• 1:08:27Bill Simmons?

  Minus 145. Listen, I think, uh, I think this is gonna be ultimately good for me because I think my instincts will be the correct instincts. I do. I like them because of their schedule and because I don't think their division's gonna be good.

• 1:08:43Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:08:44Bill Simmons?

  Do you like Arizona, San Francisco, or, um, Seattle this year?

• 1:08:48Speaker 01

  No. After the Super Bowl, I picked my way too early team, odds-wise, value-wise. The Rams were 20-1. I was like, wow, that's pretty good. They were a couple of plays away from beating the champion Eagles. And then they did a smart thing, signed Stafford. Awesome. I think Devante Adams has juice left.

• 1:09:06Bill Simmons?

  Flip cup into Adams.

• 1:09:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, it's good. Uh, they're in good shape, I think. Nine and a half is, is a nice number, too.

• 1:09:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I mean, one of the great things about this process is especially after the draft, when we get to the summer, I'm sure we'll flip-flop on a bunch of these instincts, but I, I just think the Rams, best coach, they've had success, Stafford's kinda near the end. Like, this seems like a pretty good division bet type of thing for me. Uh, Seattle, they were 10-7 last year, same South vs. South, second place schedule, and I went eight and a half for them.

• 1:09:42Speaker 01

  I said seven and a half.

• 1:09:45Bill Simmons?

  Uh, I hit this one. Eight and a half.

• 1:09:48Speaker 01

  Really?

• 1:09:49Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:51Speaker 01

  I mean, really, you won one?

• 1:09:53Bill Simmons?

  I did. Really, I won one. I'm remembering all of this for Guess the Lines this year.

• 1:09:59Speaker 01

  I don't like these moves. These could go very badly with Sam Darnold and Cooper Cup. I don't know.

• 1:10:05Bill Simmons?

  I didn't like the Cooper Cup signing at all. There were so many bad stats about him getting open over the last five years. In 2020, he was open 90% of the time and it was down like 14. The thing with Darnold, though, he was 14 and 3 last year.

• 1:10:17Speaker 01

  I know.

• 1:10:18Bill Simmons?

  So now he's an 8-win quarterback. That's the only thing that makes me nervous, but I want to see if they fix their offensive line completely through the draft. We'll see. Arizona's 8-9.

• 1:10:28Speaker 01

  Yep. No Geno, no Metcalf. Yep.

• 1:10:31Bill Simmons?

  Arizona was 8-9 last year.

• 1:10:34Bill Simmons?

  And if Seattle's 8.5,

• 1:10:38Bill Simmons?

  with this South-South thing, I think Arizona has to be 8.5. So that's what I picked.

• 1:10:43Speaker 01

  Maybe you'll beat me here. I said 7.

• 1:10:46Bill Simmons?

  7?

• 1:10:49Bill Simmons?

  Round number bullshit.

• 1:10:50Speaker 01

  It's higher.

• 1:10:51Bill Simmons?

  8.5. Plus 105. Well, at least I'm ending in a way with my fans can at least have some hope.

• 1:10:58Speaker 01

  I'm gonna let you win these last couple.

• 1:11:00Bill Simmons?

  You took out your starters. You're like Buffalo in Week 17, and Joe Milton let you up. Plus 105. And then last but not least, San Francisco, who lost so many people, it's like a whole paragraph of all the people they lost.

• 1:11:13Speaker 01

  This is so tough.

• 1:11:15Bill Simmons?

  And yet they were 6-11 last year. That was the rebuilding year, but now they're in a rebuilding year. And they're gonna have to pay Purdy, but they are playing the South in the South. I said 6.5. What'd you have?

• 1:11:26Speaker 01

  Oh, wow. I had 8.5.

• 1:11:29Bill Simmons?

  Okay. Wow, this is the biggest disparity we've had.

• 1:11:33Speaker 01

  It's gotta be my way, right?

• 1:11:39Bill Simmons?

  How is this right? 10.5.

• 1:11:43Speaker 01

  That's too high. That's way, way high.

• 1:11:46Bill Simmons?

  What in the hell?

• 1:11:49Bill Simmons?

  What am I missing?

• 1:11:50Speaker 01

  You know, you read enough about them. It's like, yeah, these were good moves. These were good cuts. Debo Samuel, all these cuts, everything they did, Greenlaw. I don't know. I don't. They can't be ten and a half.

• 1:12:01Bill Simmons?

  I thought this was like a blow it up or building here for them.

• 1:12:03Speaker 01

  Wait, so they're favored to win the division?

• 1:12:05Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna tell you right now.

• 1:12:08Bill Simmons?

  I'm stunned by that. Yeah. San Francisco plus 155, Rams plus 180, Seahawks plus 490, Cardinals plus 500. So I have to bet this now. If I was four wins off, even though we don't know what's happening in the draft, that has to be an automatic bet for me.

• 1:12:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's atrocious. That's not good.

• 1:12:27Bill Simmons?

  I'm stunned.

• 1:12:29Speaker 01

  That's not good. We gotta go under there.

• 1:12:31Bill Simmons?

  Also, like, how do we know McCaffrey's even gonna be remotely where he was?

• 1:12:36Speaker 01

  Exactly. That's the way to go. Yeah, I don't know why. That was a good time. And they have Mac Jones, though. Did you mention that? They did sign him for two years.

• 1:12:45Bill Simmons?

  I forgot to mention Mac Jones. The MVP is Lamar plus 450, Allen plus 550, Burrow plus 600.

• 1:12:53Speaker 01

  So the Niners are probably like seven. Seventh best to win the Super Bowl?

• 1:12:58Bill Simmons?

  Um, I hope that's not true. For the conference, they have the third best odds, nine to one. What am I missing? What's happening? I think it's way more likely they have a year from hell again and Shanahan is like out of there.

• 1:13:11Speaker 01

  I missed the whole offseason. I really did.

• 1:13:14Bill Simmons?

  I was there for the whole offseason. I didn't see anything that made me think that they were gonna be awesome. I thought they lost a shitload of people. I mean, do we feel like they hit their drafts the last couple of years? Like, you know, they're trying to trade IU as we speak, and I don't even think they can do that. This is coming off an ACL.

• 1:13:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, they were riding high off the Purdy not having to pay him. Now it's, I gotta look into that. We're missing something.

• 1:13:38Bill Simmons?

  Let's do a quick parent corner before we go.

• 1:13:40Speaker 01

  All right. Um, my son Archie's home on spring break. They do quarters. So, um, he gets home and I say, uh, like, how are your grades? And he like, kinda like, half asses a response and everything, and immediately shifts gears and tells me he's on season four of The Sopranos. And I was like, oh, that's great. That's better. You could have told me you're, you're. You're mafia cum laude right now. I mean, that that's all I care about. That's what college should be all about, right? Spend tens of thousands of dollars a semester to catch up on classic TV shows in your dorm.

• 1:14:15Bill Simmons?

  And it's like reading a great novel.

• 1:14:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, it really is. So I was like, well, sorry. So you're in season four. You got like a season and a half. I was like, I want to watch the finale with you. And he's like, oh, I don't know. Once I get going, I really, I don't know. Am I really going to be able to stop short and not watch the finale for like a month? I'm like, no, I want to watch with you. And it's like, he's like, all right, I'll try. But it made me think like, if you had to watch a finale with your kids. Who are viewing for the first time, which ones would you put up there?

• 1:14:42Bill Simmons?

  Sopranos.

• 1:14:43Speaker 01

  Only Sopranos. Anything else? Bringing Bad? Or not as much?

• 1:14:48Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 1:14:49Speaker 01

  Only Sopranos.

• 1:14:51Bill Simmons?

  Just for the reaction.

• 1:14:53Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:14:54Bill Simmons?

  There was this clip going around of people watching Tommy get shot in Goodfellas. Did you see that? Different reactions?

• 1:15:01Speaker 01

  Right. Yeah. Yeah.

• 1:15:02Bill Simmons?

  And I would think that would be the TV version of of that, watching people react to like, wait, what? Wait, what? You hated that. That was the maddest I've ever seen you non-sports related.

• 1:15:13Speaker 01

  I'm still mad that you're not mad about it. I really do.

• 1:15:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, now I think it's great, but I know it's gonna happen. I know it's happening now.

• 1:15:20Speaker 01

  You liked it right away. You did. But it's like.

• 1:15:23Bill Simmons?

  I did not like it right away.

• 1:15:24Speaker 01

  It's nonsensical. Well, I guess no one hated it as much as I did, but I had a terrible reaction to it. I didn't want to be friends with anyone who liked it. I like, I like, that is such a cheap way to go out, but the answer is he left it open ended because he's a movie maker. He wanted to maybe make a movie. What? That's the only answer. So he didn't die. This is dumb.

• 1:15:46Bill Simmons?

  He's set it up. That this is what death is like. You don't know when it's coming and everything goes black.

• 1:15:53Speaker 01

  Bullshit.

• 1:15:56Bill Simmons?

  So my son, like five days ago,

• 1:16:01Bill Simmons?

  for spring break, went to Portugal and Spain. Cause he's in this, he plays the upright bass and he's in this jazz band. So a bunch of the jazz people went to play in all these places.

• 1:16:13Bill Simmons?

  So they, my wife drives him like in the middle of the night to the airport. Cause they have like a six o'clock flight and then he's flying for two days straight.

• 1:16:24Bill Simmons?

  I wanted to redo all of our interactions with him since he's been gone. He's been gone since Friday night and WhatsApp, cause they don't have uh, messages, anything.

• 1:16:34Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:16:37Bill Simmons?

  First of all, she only hears from him once on WhatsApp, then puts me on a text with them.

• 1:16:43Bill Simmons?

  Miss you guys too.

• 1:16:46Bill Simmons?

  That was, that was one.

• 1:16:49Bill Simmons?

  We are in Rondo and are about to perform in four minutes. Second form of communication with him. Sent us one, two pictures of, you can see of, of a tree and a mountain.

• 1:17:01Speaker 01

  Nice.

• 1:17:03Bill Simmons?

  My wife asks, how was the performance? No answer. Sends a picture of the dog, misses you, nothing. Performances have been great. It's super nice out here. That was the third communication. Miss home though, T H O. Great. Picture.

• 1:17:21Bill Simmons?

  Need a photo of your face, my wife says.

• 1:17:25Bill Simmons?

  Nothing. Then silence again.

• 1:17:29Bill Simmons?

  Hey guys, super long day. We left at nine and just got back. My wife responds, that's your report? Anything else happening? Is it any fun? Sends us back this picture.

• 1:17:41Speaker 01

  What is it? I couldn't see what.

• 1:17:43Bill Simmons?

  It's just a picture of him and his friend with the mountain behind them. And he says, it is fun. It's just a lot.

• 1:17:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:17:52Bill Simmons?

  And that's it. Those have been all of our interactions with him. Has he tried to call us what's? Only one picture of his face and I have no idea if he's even alive in Spain right now. I was trying to, my wife and I were talking about, I was trying to remember, was I this much of a dick when I was 17? And I think the answer is probably yes, right?

• 1:18:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:18:11Bill Simmons?

  We said we had to deal with our parents in any way, shape or form when we were 17.

• 1:18:15Speaker 01

  Right. We didn't have WhatsApp and anything else like that too. So it wasn't as easy. So maybe that's a little. Yeah, but maybe we.

• 1:18:22Bill Simmons?

  It's hard to believe there was a one moment where he's like, you know what? I'm gonna send my parents an update. Just a long paragraph. Here's the best thing I ate. Just check in, say hi to grandma for me, whatever. Nope, nothing.

• 1:18:35Speaker 01

  I think the big news is who the hell knew that Ben Simmons played the upright bass after all these years on an international level? This is great.

• 1:18:44Bill Simmons?

  I was an international baseball.

• 1:18:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:18:48Bill Simmons?

  That he went to Portugal and Spain to countries I have been to yet.

• 1:18:53Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. Who could figure?

• 1:18:54Speaker 01

  I bet on them in soccer. I have a bunch of Portuguese.

• 1:18:57Bill Simmons?

  I didn't mean to mention Portugal and Spain in a non soccer context.

• 1:19:01Speaker 01

  You just reminded me. Yeah.

• 1:19:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:19:03Speaker 01

  There you go.

• 1:19:03Bill Simmons?

  Anyway, that's a, that's parent corner. The other thing is I, we're doing this live rewatchables tonight in Boston. And, uh, you know, my daughter goes to college here. So I left her a ticket and I'm like, you gonna come tomorrow night? And she's like, I don't know. It's a, you know, it's a big night. Meaning like it's a big night where they go out. So she's 50 50.

• 1:19:27Bill Simmons?

  I just, I might need to have more kids is what, that's where I've really ended. But you know when those older guys, when they just like all of a sudden they have the second family and like, huh, that's weird. Maybe I just need to start again.

• 1:19:38Speaker 01

  Yeah. Nah, dude. Now they'll come around. I think you need to have, hold the rewatchables at the place where she's going out. That's what you have to figure out.

• 1:19:46Bill Simmons?

  Maybe go to the bar, maybe that's.

• 1:19:47Speaker 01

  She shows up by accident. Yeah.

• 1:19:49Bill Simmons?

  50 50. Might go, might not. Depends on what's going on tonight.

• 1:19:52Speaker 01

  You son of a bitch. You guys are doing Goodfellas tonight?

• 1:19:54Bill Simmons?

  No, we're doing Good Will Hunting tonight.

• 1:19:56Speaker 01

  Oh, Good Will Hunting. Good.

• 1:19:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Goodfellas is playing at the Low Coolidge Corner Film Festival.

• 1:20:01Speaker 01

  Man, that's gonna be so much fun. So much.

• 1:20:03Bill Simmons?

  All right, Sal. Congrats on absolutely kicking my ass. That was a baseball game. That would have been 17 to three. What's your favorite MLB future?

• 1:20:10Speaker 01

  Mercy rule. Um, I went, uh, Soto over 33 and a half home runs. And, uh, what was, what was my other one I had? I have Texas Rangers to make to make the playoffs.

• 1:20:23Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I like it.

• 1:20:23Speaker 01

  And so, yeah, I think you're good. And I had Mad Dog Russo on Cousin Sal's winning weekend. You could see it Friday on FanDuel TV. And by the way, he, I went through, I'll send you the clip. I was like, you know, Simmons and I do this podcast for the last 15 years. We've closed it with good job by you. We stole it from you. I said, can you give me a good, a good job by you? And he's like, well, first of all, you tell Bill, I watched three episodes of the Celtics documentary and it is dynamite. I mean, you got him and his father and they're talking and Cousy and Russell. And then he went through all that. I'm like, all right, I'll tell him. And then he gave me a good job by you. Like, I thought he was going into convulsions. Like, it was great. I'll send it to you.

• 1:21:05Bill Simmons?

  Oh, that sounds amazing. All right. Check that out. That's on, that's on, that's on Against All Odds, right?

• 1:21:11Speaker 01

  Against All Odds.

• 1:21:12Bill Simmons?

  But you're also on the Ringer Gambling Show, too.

• 1:21:14Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 1:21:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. All right. So there you go. Big, how you doing on March Madness, by the way? You winning?

• 1:21:19Speaker 01

  I'm doing all right. I mean, you can't, it's hard to lose when there's all chalk. I mean, it's, I know you hate it.

• 1:21:25Bill Simmons?

  Are you doing three favorite parlays?

• 1:21:27Speaker 01

  I get irrationally angry at how much you, your irrational.

• 1:21:31Bill Simmons?

  I've been following. I'm just doing a bit. I like the.

• 1:21:34Speaker 01

  I know you are. I know.

• 1:21:35Bill Simmons?

  I was on the thread we have with JJ and Rahim and House, just, oh, my bracket, oh, my God, it's busted.

• 1:21:42Speaker 01

  It's dumb, but it's still guys coming to Vegas. By the way, it's not like, it's not like 20 years ago. They charge like 500 bucks to get into Caesars. Anyway, you want to see it anywhere, it's 400. Like, ask Kyle. It's 400 or more. It's, um, but anyway, we did all right. It's a lot of fun.

• 1:21:58Bill Simmons?

  Good job to you. Great to see you. Thanks to Kyle and Surdi and Gahow. As always, don't forget you can watch this on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel or as a video podcast on Spotify. Sal?

• 1:22:07Speaker 01

  Good job by you. Good job by you, buddy.

• 1:22:34Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, I like those guys, star in the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy

• 1:23:18Bill Simmons?

  Award winner Martin McDonagh, writer-director of The Banshees of Minnehoshan and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island. Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9. Only in theaters Friday. Get tickets now.