Cathie Wood on the Bitcoin Halving, Apple/Open AI & NVDIAs Dominance w/ Cathie Wood | EP #108

In this episode, Cathie and Peter discuss… 6:23 | Apple/OpenAI Partnership 24:13 | The Future of Nvidia and AI 34:14 | Bitcoin After the Halving Cathie Wood is a renowned stock-picker and the founder of the $60 billion ARK Invest, a key figure in the investment landscape for disruptive innovations such as self-driving cars and genomics. After founding ARK in 2014 and gaining experience at various investment firms, Wood aimed to offer active stock portfolios in an ETF format. Her flagship Ark Innovation Fund, with assets totaling $23 billion, has delivered an impressive average annual return of nearly 45% over the past five years. Wood is a prominent advocate for Tesla, predicting the electric car company's future valuation to surpass $3 trillion. ARK Big Ideas 2024: https://www.ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2024 ARK Venture Fund: https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx ARK Invest: https://ark-invest.com/ ARK’s Podcast episode with Peter: https://www.ark-invest.com/podcast/peter-diamandis-and-cathie-wood-on-longevity-ai-and-bitcoin ____________ I only endorse products and services I personally use. To see what they are, please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: Reverse the age of your skin with Oneskin; 30% here: http://oneskin.co/PETER Get started with Fountain Life and become the CEO of your health: https://fountainlife.com/peter/ AI-powered precision diagnosis you NEED for a healthy gut: https://www.viome.com/peter _____________ Get my new Longevity Practices 2024 book: https://bit.ly/48Hv1j6 I send weekly emails with the latest insights and trends on today’s and tomorrow’s exponential technologies. Stay ahead of the curve, and sign up now: Tech Blog _____________ Connect With Peter: Twitter Instagram Youtube Moonshots Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Peter Diamandis?

  Cathy, bienvenue. C'est génial de vous voir.

• 0:02Speaker 01

  Merci, Peter.

• 0:03Peter Diamandis?

  Alors, Bitcoin. Nous avons juste eu le divulgation et la question est : où va Bitcoin ? Comment vous sentez-vous sur les choses ?

• 0:09Speaker 01

  Nous sommes, nous croyons, à la moitié de ce marché et je pense que ce qui va se passer est...

• 0:16Peter Diamandis?

  Je pense à cette partenariat entre OpenAI et Apple comme le challenge direct à Google. Je suis curieux si c'est vraiment ce qui a fait que ça a dépassé.

• 0:26Speaker 01

  On voit déjà Bing, croyez-le ou pas, commencer à gagner de la part. Nous avons pensé : oh mon Dieu, Google est dans le danger ici.

• 0:36Peter Diamandis?

  Nvidia, vous savez, c'est jockey pour être la compagnie la plus précieuse sur la planète. Quelle est votre opinion sur Nvidia ?

• 0:42Speaker 01

  Notre idée ici est : ok, une compagnie de 3 trillions de dollars, des margins grosses dans les 70s. Maintenant, est-ce que l'environnement concurrentiel permet ça ?

• 0:56Peter Diamandis?

  Bonjour, tout le monde. Bienvenue aux Moonshots. Mon invité aujourd'hui n'est pas autre que Cathie Wood, investisseur technologique, visionnaire, la tête de l'Ark Invest, plateforme de 60 milliards de dollars. Nos conversations vont sur l'AI, toutes les choses de l'AI, les robots humains, le divulgation Bitcoin, les taxis robotiques Tesla, les robots humains et les biotech comme AlphaFold. C'est l'une de mes conversations préférées sur ce qui se passe dans les 12 mois suivants, dans les cinq années suivantes. Si vous aimez ces conversations, s'il vous plaît, abonnez-vous. Ça me donne la chance de vous amener des gens comme Cathy. Merci. Allons-y. Cathy, bienvenue. C'est génial de vous voir. Tout d'abord, laissez-moi vous souhaiter un anniversaire 10e.

• 1:37Speaker 01

  Oh, merci. Oui, oui. Une grande étape cette année, 10 ans.

• 1:42Peter Diamandis?

  2014 à 2024. Et c'est une décennie incroyable, entre l'AI et la robotique, le Bitcoin et Tesla, les roquettes et tout. Je suis juste sur le téléphone avec Ray Kurzweil, qui est mon partenaire dans Singularity et Abundance 360, quelques autres entreprises. Et nous avons parlé de son nouveau livre, "The Singularity is Near", qui vient juste de sortir, dont je dois lui parler de nommer ses livres, mais c'est un autre sujet. Yeah, I think the next book is going to be called The Singularity Just Past, but we'll see. And we're saying that, you know, the next 10 years, the way to think about it is the next 10

• 2:23Peter Diamandis?

  years, we're going to see as much progress as we've seen in the past century, which is an extraordinary way to think about this, right? So on your 10 year anniversary, thinking about the next 10 years, it's going to be insane.

• 2:38Speaker 01

  It is, and we talk about this a lot on our brainstorming sessions and, you know, the market, the equity markets mosey along like, you know, nothing much is going to change. It's same old, same old. And, and we're trying to figure out, you know, oh my gosh, these, these technologies are falling so dramatically in costs, whether industrial robots, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology, multi-omic sequencing, they're, they're all, the costs of all of them are, are hitting such low levels that they're going to scale, I think,

• 3:18Speaker 01

  much more dramatically than, than most people think. And I think it's going to be very exciting if you're on the right side of change. It's going to be very disturbing if you're not on the right side of change. And I don't think, and, and this is where I think you've got it right, Peter, I don't think people understand how quickly this is going to happen.

• 3:42Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah, I don't, the government's not ready. I think the public's not ready. Our educational system isn't ready, but they're going to have to get to it. And it's going to be, I think, more, I don't want to use the word disruptive in a negative connotation, it's going to be more reinventive of society than we saw during, during COVID, right? COVID was the last time we had a step function change that the world stopped and people got, you know, sort of disoriented and then reestablished in new norm. But I think we're going to see that. You know, I just read through your Big Ideas ARK Invest research paper. It's magnificent. So congratulations on that.

• 4:22Speaker 01

  Our team, all our research team, just amazing. Yeah.

• 4:26Peter Diamandis?

  If you haven't seen this report, go, it's downloadable for free. It's the Big Ideas ARK Invest Report, and it's pretty incredible.

• 4:34Speaker 01

  Can I just say, what it showcases is, yes, the speed at which we expect these technologies to evolve because costs have come down to such a low level. And it also highlights how we've set up our organization. Our analyst responsibilities are broken out, not by sector, not by industry, not by sub-industry, because technology is blurring the lines between and among industries, and these technologies are converging. So it's going to seem, you know, to the traditional analysts, it's going to seem like a chaotic world. And we did have, and I know we talk about Tesla a lot, but it is the poster child, and

• 5:18Speaker 01

  you get a sense of what's going to happen here. It's a robot company, it's an energy storage company, it's an AI company.

• 5:25Peter Diamandis?

  It's an AI company, yes.

• 5:26Speaker 01

  It's a software-as-a-service company. You know, it is, and yet, auto-analyst.

• 5:32Peter Diamandis?

  It's ridiculous, the way Tesla's being valued, but let's get to that. First of all, you mentioned convergence, it's going to be the theme of Abundance 360 2025, and excited to have you on stage with me to help interpret all of this and where it's going.

• 5:48Speaker 01

  I'm excited, yeah.

• 5:49Peter Diamandis?

  There are three subjects I want to talk about today with you. The first is AI, I mean, a lot between OpenAI and Apple, between Nvidia, between XAI, which I think we're both investors in. Next, I want to hit Bitcoin, a lot happening there, and you have been a staunch advocate for Bitcoin and making some, I think, bold predictions, which I'm counting on because it's my biggest asset class personally. And then the third is, I want to talk about disruptive tech. Everything from the genomics revolution, AlphaFull 3, to robots, a lot in robots, I'm just a big robot fan right now, and see where this is going.

• 6:33Peter Diamandis?

  So, is that good for a roadmap for us? All right, let's jump into AI.

• 6:43Peter Diamandis?

  Apple OS and OpenAI. I found that fascinating. I'm curious. You know, I expected for the longest time that we would get a update to Siri and that it would be a large language model that Apple had been, you know, been defining because Siri sucks, right? Still spells my name wrong and it's pretty simple. It should not be spelling it P I E T E R.

• 7:10Peter Diamandis?

  And they didn't. They ended up partnering with OpenAI. I'm curious what your thoughts are about that.

• 7:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, we've been watching Apple for a long time from a particular AI angle. We believe that autonomous vehicles are the ultimate mobile devices. And so rightly, Apple should have gone for it. And yet we saw one management turnover after another, after another. And now they're pretty much abandoning it. And so that was our first clue that, you know, AI was a tough nut for Apple to crack. And so, yeah, it was very interesting to hear various responses and a big debate around what this means for Apple.

• 8:01Speaker 01

  It's not bad, of course, but we, within our own organization, have two points of view. One of them is, this is great for Apple. You know, they're going to be able to layer in all of these features, functionality. They already know so much about their users. And one of my friends said, you know, I almost felt relieved when I heard the features they were going to roll out. I felt safe. They were going to keep me safe in this world, which, you know. So I found that very interesting. And so, of course, Nick Gruess, our Apple analyst,

• 8:47Speaker 01

  was very excited. He thinks this is going to be fantastic. One thing it will do is the refresh cycle.

• 8:56Speaker 01

  Uh, this next one will probably be a good one, uh, uh, because there's something new new. Okay, so that's that.

• 9:04Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah.

• 9:05Speaker 01

  On the other side.

• 9:06Peter Diamandis?

  Better camera.

• 9:07Speaker 01

  Right, on the other side of the debate is, uh, and I'm, I lean a little bit here. Uh, is our chief futurist, whom you know Brett Winton, is saying, well, wait a minute. Apple's, Apple is known for privacy and security. And sure, it's going to roll out these, these features which sounded kind of meh, you know, uh, during the launch. Uh, sure, they're going to roll them out and it's going to make, uh, you know, these Apple phones somewhat more interesting. But there is so much happening when it comes to AI.

• 9:45Speaker 01

  And there are going to be companies who are not constricted by this, uh, you can say constricted or confined or whatever by this privacy, uh, security kind of, uh, you know, uh, uh, priority. Who will come up with some crazy new ideas that are going to become very attractive to people. Uh, but Apple will not be able to adopt them in the same way. So this, this has set up for us, and this is part of the mag seven or mag six versus rest of disruptive innovation. You know, is it those companies, is it their, theirs to lose here?

• 10:27Speaker 01

  And, you know, the history of disruptive innovation is, yes, it is theirs to lose. We just don't know who's going to come up with what provocative product to dislodge them.

• 10:39Peter Diamandis?

  Well, you know, it's, it's never been the, the dominant player that made the transition. The icebox manufacturer didn't design the refrigerator, right? It's always been someone from the outside. It's always been the young innovator who doesn't know what they can't do that comes in and disrupts the world. Um, you know, it's, it's interesting. I, I think about this partnership between OpenAI and, uh, and Apple as the direct challenge to Google. Um, and I'm, I'm curious if that was what really underlying drove that. Cause I, I, I had to imagine that Apple, and I didn't make that connection that you just made about them not going after an electric car, which was always part of the, uh, part of the equation, but they didn't have the.

• 11:22Speaker 01

  Car, yeah.

• 11:23Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah, autonomous electric cars, yeah. Real quick, I've been getting the most unusual compliments lately on my skin. Truth is, I use a lotion every morning and every night religiously called OneSkin. It was developed by four PhD women who determined a 10 amino acid sequence that is a senolytic that kills senile cells in your skin. And this literally reverses the age of your skin, and I think it's one of the most incredible products. I use it all the time. If you're interested, check out the show notes. I've asked my team to link to it below. All right, let's get back to the episode. XAI.

• 12:04Peter Diamandis?

  I'm an investor. I think you are an investor in XAI. Did you take a good position there?

• 12:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, we have a small venture fund. It's scaling. It's almost 65 million now. So, you know, we took a nice little slug for the size of that fund, and we're very, very happy to be on the cap table. So, yes. You know, when we first, as we've been studying foundation models, we've been thinking, oh, my gosh, Google is in harm's way here, you know, because who wants to link to anything anymore? We can just go directly to whatever we're looking for. So, and that was kind of a risk for Apple as well, you know, the apps, you know, maybe we don't have to use these

• 12:51Speaker 01

  apps, maybe the developers won't have to pay that tax, you know, as with ChatGPT and and others, we can just go where we want, ask, you know, and get exactly what we want. Now, that's an oversimplification, and I think it has been confirmed that Google paid Apple $20 billion to be the default search, if I'm not mistaken. And, and, and so, yes, the whole world is being, I think, I think the traditional world

• 13:32Speaker 01

  is, is going to be shaken up in a way that I think people don't quite understand yet.

• 13:39Peter Diamandis?

  I agree. You know, if I have You know, right now, the entire search engine industry, and I love Google. I've had a 20-year love affair with the teams there. I know them well. They've been partners, they've been XPRIZE sponsors. Eric Schmidt and Larry and Sergey were huge underwriters of XPRIZE in the beginning, and Larry's on our board. And I, you know, they've had this cash machine that has allowed them to go and build Waymo and purchase incredible companies. But that is going to be fundamentally threatened. You know, if I say to my AI, "Listen, go buy me all my stuff," my AI is not looking at ads.

• 14:22Peter Diamandis?

  It doesn't care what someone's smiling at them for toothpaste. It just knows my genetics, it knows which toothpaste is going to work best for my teeth and not for others. And so the hegemony of the ad industry is going to be up for grabs with AI in the mix.

• 14:39Speaker 01

  Absolutely, absolutely. And, you know, even already we're seeing Bing, believe it or not, starting to gain share. That's very interesting because of the OpenAI and now you have Apple and, you know. So again, a rearranging of the guards, but, but, you know, are they the real winners anyway? I think the world we're imagining is, is going to be so different from the world we're in right now. And, and, and yet you wouldn't know that from the way the equity markets are behaving.

• 15:19Peter Diamandis?

  There's a paper that just came out that talks about the projected speed of AGI and digital superintelligence. And the paper is predicting two orders of magnitude increase by 2027. Right, a hundredfold increase in capabilities. And heading towards, you know, you know, massive GPU, TPU clusters coming up as an arms race, really. And so if we really do have AIs that are a hundredfold beyond GPT-4. So GPT-4 is described as a intelligent high school student, college student, where two orders of magnitude further is the world's top double PhD expert in whatever.

• 16:05Peter Diamandis?

  Accessible in your hand at a moment's notice. The world is very different all of a sudden.

• 16:11Speaker 01

  Yes, it is. No, I have not read the paper, but this aligns with some of our own research. And maybe that's a little bit faster.

• 16:22Speaker 01

  But the the the cost declines associated with AI, so training costs dropping seventy five percent per year. Inference costs dropping eighty five percent plus per year, as you mentioned, in Big Ideas. Um, yes, we're we're seeing, um, even, and I'm not sure if we talked about this uh uh on our last podcast together, but we're seeing uh pre pre uh ChatGPT.

• 16:51Speaker 01

  AGI was predicted by futurists uh uh out maybe eighty years. Uh, and then post post ChatGPT, so just a year and a half ago, uh eight years, and now uh maybe even sooner than that. So so, yes, we're it's a and you know, we try and imagine, okay, what is the world going to be like? Well, one of the things, and I it this is in Big Ideas as well. Is, again, those who actually harness these tools. Um, uh, if they are underperformers today and they become very uh serious about

• 17:32Speaker 01

  about harnessing tools, the performance increase for a low performer, and I think it was BCG or Bain.

• 17:40Peter Diamandis?

  Yes, I saw that report. Yeah.

• 17:41Speaker 01

  On its own consultants, right? The the high performers improved after ChatGPT by seventeen percent. The low performers by forty three percent. And and we've begun to think, okay, so that's at the individual level. What about at the company level? Companies that are scrapping and scraping around and, you know, they're they're they've found it difficult to compete against some behemoths who have well-oiled machines. Well, if they harness tools and if the world is changing as rapidly as as we think it is, maybe they're developing a competitive advantage relative to the big guys.

• 18:24Peter Diamandis?

  It's flattening the playing field in a fascinating way, right? It's it's no longer your level of dominance that will save you. It's it's really how you can integrate technology rapidly. You know, I want to go back to XAI because I'm super curious, right? You've got the leading players right now with Gemini and Google and OpenAI and Microsoft, and you've got Anthropic, and then here comes this startup XAI. Now, I've learned over the years, I will never bet against Elon, and I've had the most extraordinary returns betting on him from a financial standpoint. And so your position in in Tesla for me is 100% warranted, and it's a it's a good reason

• 19:08Peter Diamandis?

  to really look at your innovation fund.

• 19:13Peter Diamandis?

  He never plays for second place. And so the question is, can he catch up and excel and really leapfrog the current players? What are your thoughts on that?

• 19:26Speaker 01

  Like you, I would not bet against him. And you know what's interesting also is this is the physical world and the digital world coming together. He's a maestro at that. You know, a lot of the a lot of the Silicon Valley born and bred innovators, they they have gotten used to the digital world and viral apps and, you know, very high returns on investment with very low fixed costs. Elon is the inventor of our age, who who is, I'll say, a maestro at the convergences between and among technologies. Tesla's one example.

• 20:11Speaker 01

  Um, and yeah, so I I think he has big ideas and uh, I think he's motivated by what has happened at OpenAI. And uh, probably wants to, probably is betting on something uh, pointing uh, away from OpenAI in terms of, okay, where, where, where should I place my bets and towards uh, what he is doing from, from a, a trust point of view, which, you know, OpenAI has just been through a transition with, you know, a lot of the so-called safety

• 20:52Speaker 01

  advocates uh, leaving. So, uh, you know, there's certainly a compare and contrast uh, evolving there. It'll be very interesting to see. To see what he does.

• 21:02Peter Diamandis?

  Kathy, when I think about what's required to, to excel and win the AI wars, and let's call them that because they, they are. Uh, it's GPU concentration, it's talent, um, and it's data. And what I think is interesting about XAI is that Elon, uh, I don't think, I don't hear people talking about this. He's got access to extraordinary data through Tesla, right? Tesla is a imagery gathering machine. Millions of them on the roads, interacting with people and things. And uh, and also the X platform, right, is a massive data asset for him.

• 21:44Speaker 01

  Absolutely. We, we, we, we just had a brainstorm around this and

• 21:50Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah.

• 21:50Speaker 01

  Yes, we, we think proprietary data at the end of the day is going to be uh, the, one of the biggest competitive advantages. And yes, think of all of his companies and all of the different kinds of data, even. Even Neuralink, you know, there's, there's AI around that as well and, you know, bringing in the human brain neural network. So, I mean, he's covering, when I think about our five platforms, he's covering, he's touching all of them and they're all converging and they're all spewing out data that only he has.

• 22:27Peter Diamandis?

  Convergence, baby. It's, it's crazy.

• 22:30Speaker 01

  Yes, yeah, preview for your, your conference next year.

• 22:33Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah, I mean, honestly, I, I'm, I'm giddy as a, as a geek about the potential of how much things are going to accelerate and change and worried for those people who, you know, unfortunately, the majority of humanity likes to go to sleep and wake up and hope that the morning is just like the night before. People don't like change, but we're about to see a lot of change.

• 22:57Speaker 01

  They don't like change and I, I do think that it's important to get these ideas into schools as early as possible. I think I've, I've mentioned to you before the ARC Education Initiative. We are going to be the science curriculum throughout Pinellas County within the next, for the middle school system, so sixth, seventh and eighth grade, which...

• 23:23Peter Diamandis?

  I just changed my kids' middle school because it is, was devoid of a vision of the future and technology. Oh my God, it's preparing them for 40 years ago, not for the next 10 years.

• 23:37Speaker 01

  And it's so important to inspire them at that moment. They, they face a lot of forks in the road around middle school, right? And, and so to actually inspire them and, you know, and, and let them know, look, if you study this, it is so new. You, you are on the same playing field. You'll know more about whether it's drones or robots than 98% of the, the, the people in the world. If you, if you study this now and then go for it. There's so many ways with our own AI tutors. We can deepen our knowledge of

• 24:17Speaker 01

  any given area and deepen our understanding of the convergences that are evolving and, and how we might, how we might capitalize on them.

• 24:27Peter Diamandis?

  One last question on the AI front here. Nvidia. What's your theme on this? I mean, honestly, I missed Nvidia. I knew it was going to come as powerful, but I didn't. I took my chips off the table way too early. You know, it's jockeying to be the most valuable company on the planet, which is extraordinary. And they still have a lot of, they can create their own platform plays instead of just selling chips, right? There's a lot of opportunity for them. Do you think it's at the peak? Do you think it's going to continue growing? Can it be disrupted? I happen to know one of my investments, Liquid AI, is working closely with Intel on

• 25:09Peter Diamandis?

  a new type of chip that could be orders of magnitude faster. What's your take on Nvidia?

• 25:16Speaker 01

  So, like you, well, we did enjoy a hundred, nearly a hundred-fold increase in Nvidia. It'd be from, on this stock, the split stock, from around forty cents to forty dollars, and the stock's at a hundred and twenty. So, and we still own it in our more specialized portfolios, one being more AI-focused. But we, our thought here is, okay, three trillion-dollar company, gross margins in the high seventies, its major customers, the cloud customers, their gross margins are lower than that. That's a very concentrated customer base.

• 26:01Speaker 01

  And the history of the hyperscalers is when they see the economics going to their suppliers, they decide, you know, we're going to do that, you know, we should do that, we can do that, you know, they're very cash-rich. So, you know, Nvidia is an incredible story. All praise to Jensen Huang and his team. And they're trying to evolve from a strictly hardware company to more of a software company, a platform company. Now, will the competitive environment allow that? As I mentioned, the hyperscalers, they're all designing their own chips, right? Some of them more general purpose, some, some like Tesla, I put that in a hyperscaler,

• 26:46Speaker 01

  designing its own chip. Uh it already pulled one Nvidia chip out of its cars and and with Dojo ultimately I think that uh uh it will it will uh verticalize completely. So you know uh the the the

• 27:02Peter Diamandis?

  And by the way, that's Elon's play continuously, right? He always verticalizes. I mean, that's what he did. He did that in SpaceX. I remember having a conversation with him in the early days during Falcon One and he's like, he's pissed at the supplier and it's like it's like a ridiculous pricing and his immediate reaction is figure out how to build it ourselves, right? As soon as somebody's margins are too big, yeah.

• 27:24Speaker 01

  Well, right. And what happened a couple of quarters ago, uh during an earnings call, uh Elon said, and we know he was uh he was trying to get more Nvidia GPUs. So a couple of quarters ago, he said, you know, building a chip is really hard, really hard. Now, we might be successful, but it's really hard and the odds are low. And then low and behold, a couple of quarters later, later, uh not only does he have all the chips he needs, but he donates, I I don't know how it worked, I'm sure it was legal, uh some from Tesla

• 28:03Speaker 01

  to uh to to X. Now, wh- this brings up uh um supply versus demand. I think what's happening in AI, and I'd love to get your thoughts, Peter, um what what uh what we're seeing and and we hear about this from Palantir, we're be we're learning from Pa- Palantir, how much it is going to take, how much time and preparation it's going to take to move into the AI age for these large enterprises and all of these companies are catering to the large enterprises. What do they have to do? The way they need to set up is, first of all, they have to aggregate their data, far-flung data. They don't even know where

• 28:47Speaker 01

  a lot of their data resides. Aggregate it, clean it up, integrate it, map out workflows in excruciating detail. And what we're seeing now is, you know, the the cycle is a little uncertain, the the cycle, meaning the economic cycle. We're seeing uh the consumer is showing signs of uh significant weakness in some some categories. And so companies are saying, okay, this is a strategic decision we have to make and we're going to put a lot of resources into it. But let's make sure we prepare appropriately.

• 29:24Peter Diamandis?

  They're screwed.

• 29:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, well, well.

• 29:27Peter Diamandis?

  I think I think I think this is Macy's, JCPenney, Toys R Us, all over again. I think that they're gonna have the small players who are digital first, AI first born. Who are going to eat their lunch in the final result.

• 29:43Speaker 01

  I think there will be a lot of that. That's that's our bet. Uh we're all about a truly disruptive innovation. That's not how the market's betting right now. And, you know.

• 29:54Peter Diamandis?

  The market's betting, the market's betting, I think, from uh from a safety, what they know, not willing to make the leap.

• 30:02Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 30:02Peter Diamandis?

  It it there, it's just, it's it's momentum of their previous mindset. Um and they haven't seen the disruption yet. They haven't seen it. Yeah.

• 30:13Speaker 01

  And if there is any disturbance, let's just say we have this, you know, strategic reset, you know, pause. Then what we have is uh probably uh too much supply out there relative to current demand. Uh and I am talking about uh GPUs and, you know, use of that. But that will be a moment in time because this is so big. And and we're seeing in the private markets, a lot of companies being funded who are gonna come up with. You know, something new, interesting, different, provocative, controversial, you know. And uh and and probably the way the world's going to work.

• 30:56Peter Diamandis?

  Everybody, I want to take a short break from our episode to talk about a company that's very important to me and could actually save your life or the life of someone that you love. The company is called Fountain Life. And it's a company I started years ago with Tony Robbins and a group of very talented physicians. You know, most of us don't actually know what's going on inside our body. We're all optimists. Until that day where you have a pain in your side, you go to the physician in the emergency room and they say, listen, I'm sorry to tell you this, but you have this stage three or four going on. And, you know, it didn't start that morning. It probably was a problem that's been going on for some time, but because we never look, we don't find out. So what we built at Fountain Life

• 31:41Peter Diamandis?

  was the world's most advanced diagnostic centers. We have four across the US today, and we're building 20 around the world. These centers give you a full body MRI, a brain, a brain vasculature, an AI-enabled coronary CT looking for soft plaque, DEXA scan, a GRAIL blood cancer test, a full executive blood workup. It's the most advanced workup you'll ever receive. 150 gigabytes of data that then go to our AIs and our physicians to find any disease at the very beginning, when it's solvable. You're going to find out eventually. Might as well find out when you can take action. Fountain Life also has an entire side of therapeutics. We look around the world for the most advanced therapeutics

• 32:25Peter Diamandis?

  that can add 10, 20 healthy years to your life, and we provide them to you at our centers. So if this is of interest to you, please go and check it out. Go to fountainlife.com/peter. When Tony and I wrote our New York Times bestseller, Life Force, we had 30,000 people who reached out to us for Fountain Life memberships. If you go to fountainlife.com/peter, we'll put you to the top of the list. Really, it's something that is, for me, one of the most important things I offer my entire family, the CEOs of my companies, my friends. It's a chance to really add decades on to our

• 33:07Peter Diamandis?

  healthy lifespans. Go to fountainlife.com backslash Peter. It's one of the most important things I can offer to you as one of my listeners. All right, let's go back to our episode. On our next conversation, because we don't have time for it today, I wanted, I do want to talk about the fact that in one more iterative cycle, one more order of magnitude, we're going to have the best AI programmers as AIs. And the acceleration that occurs at that moment is blinding. And where we're going to have drop in employees, drop in programmers, drop in physicians, drop in lawyers. And, and it's just, this is what's going to enable a startup to come from nowhere and become the single person billion dollar company and

• 33:52Peter Diamandis?

  disrupt the large players who didn't see it coming.

• 33:56Speaker 01

  Right. I, I just to take that, you know, when the cloud happened, the barriers to innovation came down. And even more so now that we can all become natural language programmers or prompt engineers, or I think the barrier to entry is coming down. And the costs of all of this innovation are coming down. Not so much the large language models, but the cost of most innovation is coming down dramatically.

• 34:28Peter Diamandis?

  Let's go to our topic number two, a subject that your audience, my audience loves, so we have Bitcoin. We just had the halving. It happened with little fanfare, little change. And the question is, where's Bitcoin going? You know, it was 70,000 or thereabouts, you know, a month or so ago, it dropped down to below 60. I bought more Bitcoin. How are you feeling about things? What's, what are you seeing as the future here?

• 34:56Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think, so we have four people at ARC who are working on crypto generally. One dedicated to Bitcoin on-chain analytics. And judging by those, we are, we believe, halfway through this bull market. And halfway doesn't mean we're halfway through the price increase. Because, you know, at the end of a bull market, prices tend to go parabolic. So we have no idea where that, but we feel very strongly, just based on on-chain analytics, looking at them versus the short 10-year history, 10, a little bit more than that, history,

• 35:40Speaker 01

  that we're halfway through the bull market. What's very interesting, since the ETFs were launched in January, many people think, oh, all right, the boom and, and, you know, we, we had, we've had a very nice showing, David versus Goliath, we're, we're, we're in, we're in the fight and very happy where we are. Yeah.

• 36:05Speaker 01

  But not one major, we call them wirehouses, like Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Not one has put Bitcoin on its platform yet. A Bitcoin ETF, they're all doing their due diligence. And I think what's going to happen is, within the next few months, one will, and it may be not the big ones, it may be an independent RIA like LPL. They tend to move a little more quickly. Once you get one with a spot Bitcoin ETF on its platform,

• 36:49Speaker 01

  the others will fall in line pretty quickly.

• 36:51Peter Diamandis?

  It was so funny, my, my mom was like, where do I put my retirement money? I said, put it in a Bitcoin ETF. And I said, you know, who manages for you? She says Merrill Lynch. Let me talk to your Merrill Lynch person. We, we're not allowed to do that. And I'm like, Mom, change who manages your money, please. You know.

• 37:09Speaker 01

  Well, it, well, she, any, any of the big ones, she's not going to have any, any better luck. So, but, but you can go to an online. Online broker, Robinhood and others and and they they tend to be a little bit more a little bit more adventurous.

• 37:32Peter Diamandis?

  Kathy, when you were on stage with me at Abundance 360 last, you were saying you saw a million dollar per coin price. Are you still there?

• 37:41Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 37:42Peter Diamandis?

  By 2030?

• 37:43Speaker 01

  Yes, 2030. So our our bull case, bull is over 1.5 million. Our base is in the 650,000 dollar range, so about tenfold from here by by 2030. And there are three big building blocks. Institutional is one and I would put the the it sounds like retail distribution, but these are institutional decision makers at B of A, Merrill Lynch and so forth. So that's one. The second is, this is a replacement for gold. So we assume that it's going to subsume

• 38:23Speaker 01

  50% of the the goal, what would be the gold market, especially as younger people are looking to diversify. And then it is an insurance policy. In emerging markets, you know, I I just visited El Salvador and had the pleasure of meeting the top officials there and they are blazing a trail, making it legal tender. And, you know, giving their populations or showing the way for other countries to give their.

• 38:55Peter Diamandis?

  What a brilliant move.

• 38:56Speaker 01

  Yes, it is a brilliant.

• 38:57Peter Diamandis?

  What a brilliant move.

• 38:59Speaker 01

  President Bukele is going after two, two big ideas and we're talking about them, AI and Bitcoin. And my mentor and friend Art Laffer, who joined me on this trip, I think is going to be working with that government. It's only a 30 billion dollar economy. Can you believe that?

• 39:20Peter Diamandis?

  Wow.

• 39:21Speaker 01

  And here we're talking. And they're going after, they're being very progressive. They're putting in tax policies that are are going to encourage innovation. So I I think that's a very big idea. Think about that. El Salvador, the entire country, 30 billion.

• 39:38Peter Diamandis?

  Wow. Time to buy some real estate in El Salvador.

• 39:41Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:42Peter Diamandis?

  Wow. Honestly, and I wish other nation states would take, would would follow suit here. What an incredible gift to your populace.

• 39:50Speaker 01

  Argentina is moving in this direction. We've talked to the economics ministers there. They're not ready to go the Bitcoin route in the way that President Bukele is, but they're moving in that direction. They're thinking, they're thinking about it. And then the other insurance policy is for anyone, but and in high net worth individuals, but anyone as, you know, a protection against confiscation of wealth, whether that's inflation or outright confiscation because of corruption.

• 40:26Peter Diamandis?

  And that, and that is, that's the story of South and Central America, unfortunately. And an important one. Are you tracking anything that would disrupt Bitcoin? Are you concerned at all? I mean, US politics are interesting. We just saw a rather shaky presidential debate. We'll see what goes there. I don't want to talk about it. But, but, you know, it's interesting. I was meeting with a minister out of Saudi Arabia and who was telling me in, I won't say, I don't even confidence, but he was saying that his understanding was the US really

• 41:07Peter Diamandis?

  wanted to block the continued growth and proliferation of Bitcoin. And I can't imagine that that's possible anymore. Do you?

• 41:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's, we don't think it's possible. And it's, it's so interesting how surreptitiously Bitcoin really is, got into the hands of 50 to 60 million Americans and has become an election year issue. In fact, for many voters, it is the election issue. And that is why for the Financial Innovation Technology Act of the 21st century, so FIT 21.

• 41:50Speaker 01

  I was able to attract seventy six Democrats. I think, I think when, um, uh, uh, when, uh, the, the Republicans basically turned this into uh, an election year issue, whether accept, accepting campaign, uh, donations in crypto or, or saying that they would, um, protect the right for self custody. That's a big one. That's a very big one for, for Bitcoin. And we're, we're very much, uh, uh, aligned, even though we have an, uh, ETF and that could be a centralization vector. We think, uh, both, both are true.

• 42:31Speaker 01

  Self custody for, you know, the early adopters and those who learn more about the ecosystem. But then just getting people into understanding what this is, how powerful this movement is, that is the role of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Because once you own a spot Bitcoin ETF, you want to learn even more about it. You'll want to understand the risk profile or return profile.

• 42:55Peter Diamandis?

  It's the easy button for those of you who want to get into, into Bitcoin.

• 42:59Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 43:02Peter Diamandis?

  Your predictions or your team's predictions for 2025, what do you, where do you see Bitcoin going?

• 43:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, we tend not to do one year, but if we're in the middle of, uh, the bull market, I think the next spur is going to be, uh, the, uh, the, the, the platforms, uh, putting the spot Bitcoin ETF on it. So, uh, and I do think that will happen this year. We were told by some of our, our, um, prospective clients, uh, the platforms themselves, that they would need six to nine months to evaluate it. So here we are entering the sixth month.

• 43:46Speaker 01

  Uh, so I would expect in the fall, one or more will put, uh, its, uh, put the A spot Bitcoin ETF or many of them on, on their platforms. And, uh, I think that will be the next wish then. You know, it's interesting.

• 44:02Peter Diamandis?

  All they have to do.

• 44:03Speaker 01

  I remember in the la- I think it was the last halving. Many people, you know, we went through the halving and everybody waited for a pop. And it didn't happen. Well, first of all, it didn't happen because there's a lot of anticipatory buying into it. But I've, I've watched it kind of, you know, gestate, shall we say, and, and then all of a sudden. So those two could coincide in the fourth quarter of this year. It could be pretty exciting.

• 44:33Peter Diamandis?

  All those, all those platforms need to do is, is spend an hour with Mike Saylor, and I'm sure they'll accelerate their.

• 44:40Speaker 01

  Well, maybe not. Okay, they're, they're, they're, they're risk averse, so they don't, they, they, they want, they don't, and I, and, and Mike is an incredible evangelist for the space, but, but that doesn't feel safe evangelism. It, it has to, you know, I'd like to think that our research, and we've done a number of white papers, our first one starting in 2015, I'd like to think that that kind of methodical approach and, and studying of the subject, and someone like Art Laffer, who, he couldn't be more excited about Bitcoin, because for him, he really believes that,

• 45:21Speaker 01

  you know, the Fed, many people feel that they have managed monetary policy over the years, so, you know, we've prevented terrible things from having, from happening. If you look what happened before the Fed came about in 2000, I mean, in 1913, what happened then is, prices were stable, we're on the gold standard, and the economy was very volatile, and you ran into, you ran into booms and busts, but they were very quick. They were over in weeks. We lead up for years to a crash, in 08, 09, poster child for that, and here we are again.

• 46:04Speaker 01

  We had zero interest rates, and, you know, I wonder what the fallout from private equity, private credit, you know, putting. Enormous sums into real estate and then leveraging it up. We're starting to see the fallout, whether offices.

• 46:21Peter Diamandis?

  And the post-COVID, right, with the office.

• 46:24Speaker 01

  And multifamily, multifamily now, even in, even in the areas where there's been large in migration. So the, the, the sun belt, we're beginning to see, uh, multifamily in excess. So, you know, we're going to, we're going to, we'll continue to see, you know, crises, I think. Hopefully nothing like oh eight, oh nine. I don't think so, but still, you know, zero percent for a very long period of time leads to reaching for yield, which leads to bad behavior.

• 46:56Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah, gluttony, I think is the term that I would put towards that. Did you see the movie Oppenheimer? If you did, did you know that besides building the atomic bomb at Los Alamos National Labs, that they spent billions on biodefense weapons? The ability to accurately detect viruses and microbes by reading their RNA? Well, a company called Viome exclusively licensed the technology from Los Alamos Labs to build a platform that can measure your microbiome and the RNA in your blood. Now Viome has a product that I've personally used for years called Full Body Intelligence, which collects a few drops of your blood, spit and stool, and can tell you so much about

• 47:38Peter Diamandis?

  your health. They've tested over 700,000 individuals and used their AI models to deliver members' critical health guidance, like what foods you should eat, what foods you shouldn't eat, as well as your supplements and probiotics, your biological age and other deep health insights. And the results of the recommendations are nothing short of stellar. You know, as reported in the American Journal of Lifestyle Medicine, after just six months of following Viome's recommendations, members reported the following: a 36% reduction in depression, a 40% reduction in anxiety, a 30% reduction in diabetes, and a 48% reduction in IBS. Listen, I've been using Viome for three years. I know that my oral and gut health is one of my highest priorities.

• 48:24Peter Diamandis?

  Best of all, Viome is affordable, which is part of my mission to democratize health. If you want to join me on this journey, go to viome.com/peter. I've asked Naveen Jain, a friend of mine who's the founder and CEO of Viome, to give my listeners a special discount. You'll find it at viome.com/peter.

• 48:43Peter Diamandis?

  Let's go to our third subject, my favorite, and it's the disruptive tech conversation. And you and I share that DNA and that fascination and that focus. I put into that category for our conversation today humanoid robots. I want to talk about Tesla's autonomous robot taxi, which is a huge, huge deal. I don't think people realize how big the opportunity is there, and you have, obviously, with the work that you've done. And then biotech with AlphaFold. And I want to get your thoughts on the sort of the biotech winter and if that's over. So let's begin with humanoid robots, shall we?

• 49:24Peter Diamandis?

  So we've got TeslaBot, also known as Optimus. We've got Figure and Figure 2. We've got out of China, we've got Unitree. And by my count, there's like 30 other humanoid robots that are reasonably well-capitalized. We've got Vinod Khosla saying we'll have a billion by 2040.

• 49:48Peter Diamandis?

  Elon, Brett Adcock is saying maybe closer to 10 billion by 2040. I asked a friend of mine, I said, "What's it going to be like when you've got a humanoid robot walking down the street?" And he says, "Normal."

• 50:04Speaker 01

  Well, you know, it's so interesting that he says that because we walk down the street with our AirPods on and we're all talking. I remember when cell phones first came out, I wouldn't, I was an early adopter because they were so useful, so important. But I would not talk on the street because people would think I was crazy, you know? So I agree with that.

• 50:26Peter Diamandis?

  People talking to themselves.

• 50:27Speaker 01

  Yeah, I do agree with that. We think it's a $25 trillion market, broken down half between manufacturing and half non-manufacturing. Sam Kors has done a lot of work on it. Yes, Brett Adcock, we went, Charlie Roberts, our chief investment strategist and I went

• 50:49Peter Diamandis?

  to... Who I love, Charlie's amazing.

• 50:50Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. And we went, and his specialty, of course, is multi-omics.

• 50:57Peter Diamandis?

  Biotech.

• 50:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, absolutely. But we went to... To see Figure AI and it is amazing and I think there I think rumors this week are they they have been courting two very large companies testing with them and and they may have sealed a deal, not sure about that, that's rumor mill stuff, but um it's starting to move very quickly, no doubt about it.

• 51:22Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah, I was over at with Brett, my my venture fund is an investor in in Figure and I had a chance to we've all seen Figure one, uh and I had a chance to see Figure two and plans for Figure three and the speed of innovation there is amazing. I mean, I said to him, I haven't seen anything uh with this level of energy and iterative innovation since uh since I was at uh at SpaceX on the Falcon one days uh and they were like literally iterating as rapidly as they possibly could.

• 51:56Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 51:56Peter Diamandis?

  It's amazing.

• 51:57Speaker 01

  And and Optimus, it um I think the other, I think this came out this week um or else it's another one of those rumors, but uh and now uh Optimus is starting to work in Tesla's factories. So um I think they have.

• 52:12Peter Diamandis?

  And with a ten thousand dollar price tag? I mean, so now like that's the question. I I I love Elon's optimism. We both have an abundance mindset, an optimistic mindset for sure. And um and I think uh maybe his timeframes are becoming uh a little more realistic, but ten thousand dollars. Now, I have to imagine, you know, if you price a Optimus robot by weight and complexity compared to a car. Yeah, ten thousand dollars if if a Model Y is running at, you know, thirty or forty K. That's probably appropriate. If it's ten thousand dollars and you can finance it like you do a car. That means you've got, you know, a twenty four seven humanoid robot in your house or apartment for a hundred bucks a month. That's insane.

• 52:58Speaker 01

  Right, um, so our work, and as you know, we use rights law. And uh, what we have found that i- is that in the industrial-

• 53:08Peter Diamandis?

  Define ri- define rights law for, for folks.

• 53:11Speaker 01

  Oh, okay, sure. It, well, it's a relative of Moore's Law. Moore's Law is a function of time and uh, it worked very well in the semiconductor industry for years. Uh, now that semiconductors have hit up against the laws of physics, it's not working so well. What is working well is rights law, even in the semiconductor industry. Rights law is not a function of time, it's a function of units. And it says, uh, for every cumulative doubling in the number of units produced in this new technology, costs decline by a consistent percentage rate.

• 53:53Speaker 01

  And what we're finding is that in the industrial robot space, um, that is the steepest cost decline. It's fifty percent for every cumulative doubling. Now, what's fascinating about industrial robots, uh, again, you'll see this in Big Ideas, is that I think in all of the world today, there are only seven hundred or eight hundred thousand industrial robots. So we're at a very low base from which we're starting this cumulative doubling, so one to two, two to four, four to eight and so forth. Very low base and um, and the reason there are only seven hundred or eight hundred thousand is they're locked up in cages because they're so dangerous.

• 54:37Speaker 01

  Now, of course, with sensor technology, that is changing. That's a huge gating factor here. And that's why we do expect to see billions uh, over time. So-

• 54:49Speaker 01

  Based on our industrial robot cost decline work, I think Elon is close to the mark.

• 54:57Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah, yeah, and I think again, the implications of this, right, where everybody, this is your, this is your homemaker, in one sense, your, your cook, your elderly care, your baby care. I mean, I don't think we will see that, but if you've got, you know, AGI, and of course, the robot revolution is riding on top of the wave of, of AI, 100%. And then you've got, you've got incredible capability coming. And, and the question becomes, you're either going to see this as a dystopian future, or you're going to see it as a utopian opportunity.

• 55:38Peter Diamandis?

  You know, I don't know if you know the gentleman Sadhguru, who is a

• 55:44Speaker 01

  I don't know him personally, but yeah.

• 55:46Peter Diamandis?

  So Sadhguru, I was on stage with him, and he said something, and he said, listen, exponential technology is the means by which humanity takes a vacation from survival.

• 55:58Peter Diamandis?

  And that just really struck me. It was a beautiful, beautiful statement, right? So we spend all of our time struggling and surviving, and technology is the means by which we can relax. Now, the question is, what do we do with our time? You know, can we find newer, higher purposes? Can we up-level humanity in a way that we use those robots in that intellectual capacity to do even more extraordinary things?

• 56:22Speaker 01

  Well, I think

• 56:23Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah.

• 56:24Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think people were asking the same thing in the early 1900s, right? Late 1800s, early 1900s, around farming and the reason for being, and couldn't imagine how their lives were going to change. And that was the last time we've seen multiple innovation platforms evolve at the same time. Telephone, electricity, internal combustion engine, completely. And, you know, many people thought jobs were going to disappear. Tractors, right, there were just, there weren't going to be any jobs. Well, they forgot about human ingenuity and how creative we are, and how resourceful we are. And I think we have no idea the kinds of jobs that are going to be created

• 57:08Speaker 01

  in the next 10 years. We have, we have no idea. In the early 1990s. Um, with the early days of the internet, we couldn't even imagine Uber or Airbnb. We just couldn't imagine it. It was impossible, right? So.

• 57:25Peter Diamandis?

  I agree with you. Let's go to a subject that, uh, that you're, you've been speaking passionately about, and I fully endorse your passion and love the research, which is on Tesla's robotaxis. Um, we have an announcement coming up shortly, but a lot of news there. Uh, talk to us about what's coming, what the implications are, because it's huge.

• 57:50Speaker 01

  It is huge, uh, and there are so many doubters. It's, it's, it's very interesting. I think the most important, one of the most important pieces of work, um, not sure if I shared it with you, although it is in, uh, Big Ideas, is the safety work, uh, that-

• 58:07Peter Diamandis?

  I saw, I saw the graphs in Big Ideas. And again, by the way, where do people go to download the Big Ideas, uh, document?

• 58:13Speaker 01

  It's ark-invest.com. Uh, and in there you will see a, a chart showing the safety of, uh, of a cruise automation car, a Waymo car, the average car in the US, a Tesla car before FSD, and a Tesla car after FSD. Uh, I'll just give two of those. The average car on the road in the US has an accident every 200,000 miles. The, the average car with old FSD, think six months ago, uh, has an accident every 3.2 million miles.

• 58:56Speaker 01

  200 to 3, you know, Volvo built, uh, uh, its brand-

• 59:00Peter Diamandis?

  A brand, yeah.

• 59:01Speaker 01

  On safety. Uh, I think, I think Tesla, I think we're, we're trying to tell this story, but that Tesla should be using this. Um, uh, so, uh, we, we believe that, uh-

• 59:14Speaker 01

  With Unboxed Manufacturing, with this August 8th announcement, Elon has been sending messages to his employee base, his supplier base, to the extent he is not verticalized, and to ultimate consumers that we're getting very close to the days of a robo-taxi, driving us from point A to point B, safely, quickly, and cheaply, inexpensively. So, as you know, we've put out our model, and last year,

• 59:57Speaker 01

  we assumed that our price target, that two-thirds of it would be due to robo-taxi. Our confidence that robo-taxi is going to launch within the next 18 months, maybe two years, is very high, so much so that you'll also see in the Tesla report that we put out, that you can find on the same site, that we would be shocked if it isn't within two years. There's, you know, the probability of later, we think, has diminished significantly. Given the breakthroughs in AI, how quickly Tesla is harnessing them, how much data it is continuing to collect. And, you know, Tesla said,

• 1:00:40Speaker 01

  or Elon said in his shareholder, during the shareholders' meeting recently, that the disengagements are happening so rarely now with full self-driving, that he's worried about boredom, you know, of the humans who are overseeing this. They're not finding disengagements. So they are getting very close. Unboxed Manufacturing means they will be manufacturing both human-driven cars and robo-taxis in the same facility. No more assembly line, completely, you know, new, first principles thinking. And they'll toggle between them based on demand. So, we are getting close.

• 1:01:25Speaker 01

  And we also think we'll learn more about Master Plan 4 on October 8th. Might be wrong on that, but, you know, because he didn't put out Master Plan 3 more than maybe a year, a year and a half ago, so. But that's how quickly the world is made.

• 1:01:42Peter Diamandis?

  You know, I I think, I mean Tesla for me is is the is the unsung hero of the decade ahead, and so your position there is fully validated in my brain. And it comes from the work they're doing, obviously, in their in their vehicles and their lower-priced vehicles and really, I mean, they're going to decimate internal combustion engine cars. It's just going to be cheaper, faster, better, higher-performance vehicles, period.

• 1:02:08Speaker 01

  And Yeah, sorry, it's been, again, I've watched the traditional auto manufacturers, they've rallied in here. Why? Because they're pulling back on electric, they're pulling back on autonomous, and the mar- and they're raising dividends and increasing share repurchases. That's just more nails in the coffin, if you ask.

• 1:02:27Peter Diamandis?

  They're manipulate, it's manipulation in the wrong direction. But it's coming on top of that, of course, is Tesla is an energy company. Tesla Tesla is an AI company, Tesla's a humanoid robot company, Tesla is a replacement for Uber. And all of these things, any one of them can can double, triple, you know, get close to 10x-ing the valuation of the company. So the question you have to ask yourself is, can, will Elon fall this time? Will he not be able to perform? And I think the the recent, you know, pay package he received, or at least received

• 1:03:08Peter Diamandis?

  validation of, is all the motivation he needed to to push through and and and he will be, we talked about this last time, and it's now even more evident, he will become the first trillionaire, hands down, period. And I don't think that's very far away.

• 1:03:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, we would absolutely, we would not be surprised. Tesla alone, and in our model, we don't include much for Optimus. We just assume that Optimus becomes, you know, a huge productivity booster within the Tesla organization. We're not assuming any outside sales at all. So, you know, that's a call option. Energy storage, we is is much more of a call option for us. Elon thinks it can be as big or bigger than autonomous. We would find that hard to believe, because we think the autonomous opportunity Eight to ten trillion dollars, this is for the entire ecosystem, not just Tesla,

• 1:04:05Speaker 01

  in revenue generation. This is including China, and of course Tesla's now going to be participating in this space in China.

• 1:04:13Peter Diamandis?

  That was a coup.

• 1:04:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, it is. Some people say, you know, we're debating this ourselves, are, you know, did China invite them in because China wants to reverse engineer what they're doing? Because Baidu and Apollo are not, are not up to snuff yet? Or are they letting Tesla partner with Baidu for, you know, for mapping reasons? You know, there's, there's a big divide there. I tend to, I tend to think China wants to be first on robotaxis, meaning more ubiquitous robotaxis, and they want to learn more from Tesla, just like they did with EVs.

• 1:04:56Peter Diamandis?

  You know, speaking of this, let's not forget, China is developing their own humanoid robots as well. We've seen Unitree there, which was announced at sixteen thousand dollar price tag. The, the tariff doubled it to thirty two thousand, and then Elon came out at ten thousand. I found that within, you know, a month of it, a month of the announcements, fascinating. But it's moving fast. And again, we have to realize all of this is riding on top of the AI wave, right?

• 1:05:29Speaker 01

  Absolutely.

• 1:05:30Peter Diamandis?

  Another field, another field riding on top of AI is, is the whole biotech world that you and I love so much. Yeah.

• 1:05:39Speaker 01

  And it has.

• 1:05:39Peter Diamandis?

  How are you feeling about that?

• 1:05:41Speaker 01

  Well, it's been crucified in the market. I, you know, this is a classic healthcare analysts don't like technology. It moves too quickly, you know, break things, you know, in a regulatory industry environment, you can get in trouble. And tech analysts don't like healthcare because there's too much regulation, too many reimbursement obstacles. And so we have this, what is brewing in the multi-omics field.

• 1:06:14Speaker 01

  Is probably more transformative than in any other field. Sure, transportation, we just talked about it, that's pretty transformative. But but we've kind of gotten the we've kind of got the hang of what this is going to be because of Uber and Lyft longer run. We know we got that conceptually. But the idea of being able to diagnose cancer before stage one, thanks to the convergence of sequencing technologies and and and artificial intelligence. And then we'll be able to cure disease because of CRISPR gene editing.

• 1:06:49Peter Diamandis?

  Yes.

• 1:06:50Speaker 01

  I don't think the market believes that.

• 1:06:52Peter Diamandis?

  It's biblical. It's biblical.

• 1:06:53Speaker 01

  It is, but what's so interesting to me about this is CRISPR Therapeutics has its two of its therapies, one for beta thalassemia, one for sickle cell disease. They have been approved not only by the US, but also by the UK and Europe. And back then, I'll never forget, I was had the privilege of interviewing Jennifer Doudna before she won the Nobel Prize for CRISPR Cas9. And I remember back then, she was saying, look, I don't want to talk about efficacy at all. All I care about is safety. That is the thing we have to prove here.

• 1:07:35Speaker 01

  So here we are, not even, well, maybe roughly four years later, not only have we proven it out on safety, but efficacy, beta thalassemia, that cured.

• 1:07:49Peter Diamandis?

  Yes, single injection.

• 1:07:52Speaker 01

  Single, one, one. And this man, the first trial participant, now in the trial for almost four years, used to go to the hospital 17 times per year for on an emergency basis for blood transfusions. Now. Here we are. It's been approved. Uh, it's, you know, it's a low, single-digit billion-dollar company. This is a very big idea. And yet, the market has no time, no time. And what they're looking at, it's so interesting because, um, I think, uh, one of the Collison brothers

• 1:08:30Speaker 01

  just came out with, uh, with a new gene editing technique on bacteria. And so, this week, that was the scare story. Well, that's gonna take a decade, you know? Meanwhile, we can cure one disease after another, after another, with existing technologies.

• 1:08:49Peter Diamandis?

  You know, the, the marketplace has done a, uh, well, it's interesting that the, the entire pharmaceutical biotech industry has gotten beat up because of not having revenues, even though the market potential is massive. Uh, I've, I've seen this in my own companies, and it's, it's, it's awful. It's better to be a private company and grow than being a public company, because you're being, you're being beat up, you know, and, and trading below cash levels. It's crazy. Um, but what I think the market hasn't realized, and what I'm, you know, a lot of my work is right now, Kathy's on longevity. Um, it's the big, you know, there are two big markets on the planet, AI and longevity. You know, what would,

• 1:09:30Peter Diamandis?

  what would someone pay to add twenty or thirty healthy years, real, real vital, healthy years on the end of their life? I think it would be the majority of their net worth. I think that they would pay eighty percent of what they had in the bank account, um, if they had really the ability to add decades of health on their life. If you think about it that way, it's a huge marketplace.

• 1:09:53Speaker 01

  Not only that, there's going to be a massive shift in, uh, where investors allocate healthcare dollars. If we are curing disease, right, then...

• 1:10:08Speaker 01

  Then we're done, you know, I mean, that's an exaggeration. It's going to take years and years. But what are these big pharma companies? They're huge distribution SGNA engine, sales, general and administrative. And the salesperson has to go in year after year to make sure that his or her company's drugs are, you know, top of mind. Well, guess what? You're not going to need them, right?

• 1:10:34Peter Diamandis?

  No, there's a, there's a big disruption coming on the top of the food, on, on the pharma industry. You know, I was having, I had dinner with Demis Hasabis, the, the CEO of DeepMind, right? Sir Demis, I should say. And we talked about AlphaFold 3. So AlphaFold 1, as you remember, was the AI engine able to predict the exact folding of a protein based on the amino acid sequence, a super competing problem for 50 years. So AlphaFold 3 gets released a few months ago, and it can now predict the interaction of all molecules, like here's a carbohydrate, a protein, a, you know, whatever, and, and sugar molecule,

• 1:11:14Peter Diamandis?

  and how they interact together. And where they're going next is amazing. They want to be able to create an AI model of an entire cell, and then an AI model of a tissue, and an organ, and an AI model of you, to know that this drug works just perfectly for you. And, and, and the secret of why do some people make it 220 and some people die at 70? It's, it's not random chance. It's in the biology of the human, and we're able to understand that.

• 1:11:48Speaker 01

  We have the information. And year by year, you know, each of us will find more mutations, and the sooner we find them, now that we can, and we couldn't before. Um, the sooner we'll be able to correct them, edit those programming errors out. So, yeah, it's going to transform healthcare. You know, it's been fascinating to watch. I just told you what we think is going to happen to the large pharma complex.

• 1:12:17Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah, sure.

• 1:12:18Speaker 01

  They have the cash.

• 1:12:19Peter Diamandis?

  Yes.

• 1:12:19Speaker 01

  This market is treating companies with big cash, uh, and, uh,

• 1:12:24Peter Diamandis?

  The GLP-1, I mean, it's crazy what's happened with the GLP-1 drugs, making the most valuable companies on the planet.

• 1:12:31Speaker 01

  Right. Well, and that was, you know, that was discovered brute force, the old way, right? And more power to them. It is, but what if we cure diabetes? CRISPR Therapeutics has diabetes, both type one and type two, uh, on its roadmap. And if Sam Kilkarny at CRISPR thinks that it's possible, I believe it. And, uh, you know, these are the new, uh, platform companies in a, in a sense, you know, this reminds me of Genentech. I remember they're wrestling around Genentech in the early days. And, um, and Genentech launched the biotech age. Uh, the market's not even really looking at this and it is

• 1:13:15Speaker 01

  astonishing. And I, I know one of the showstoppers right now is, oh my gosh, this cure, one and done, is $2 million. Well, you have to do the cost benefit analysis of not going to the emergency room 17 times per year on an emergency basis. And we do have to look at value-based pricing. Okay. Maybe it's a hundred thousand or whatever upfront. And then for every year that this disease does not recur, uh, the insurance company should be willing to pay.

• 1:13:42Peter Diamandis?

  We need new business models. Absolutely. Absolutely.

• 1:13:46Speaker 01

  That's what's happening here.

• 1:13:47Peter Diamandis?

  But what you said is really important just now. Uh, these are cures versus Versus amelioration of the of the problem, right? So the pharma, the pharma industry has survived by not curing diseases, but by treating the symptoms of the disease. And so, once you get the disease, like AIDS, for example, we're not curing AIDS right now. We do have the ability with CRISPR to cure someone who has an HIV infection. We can go in there and disrupt it, and it's coming. But we're going to give you drugs for the rest of your life. And it's your, your, your customer for the next 50 years. Congratulations and welcome aboard.

• 1:14:25Speaker 01

  Yeah. Well, you know, it's interesting, in, in, in the hep C world, this is where we got the sticker shock first. It was Gilead, Solvaldi was the drug, and everyone was up in arms, right? No, we're not paying that. Well, the system is not, it's one of the biggest drugs out there. The system is paying because it is saving so much, you know, in the long run, yeah. So I think, I think that's, you know, as you say, many people do not, most people don't like change. And especially in the healthcare space, investors, they just know phase one, phase two, phase three. That's what they know. Cures, they don't know. It just doesn't register almost.

• 1:15:10Peter Diamandis?

  See, let me, let me make this, let me make this commercial for you rather than you doing it. It's, this is where you differentiate from the majority of the investor thought leaders out there, Kathy, in a beautiful way. You're not going after the mag six, right? You're going, because they're the dominant players today, that's great. But there's a thousand extraordinary young companies that are innovative, hungry, and iterating at a much faster rate. And that's true both on the AI tech side as well as the biopharma side. And, and your ability through your research team to find those companies, identify them early, because they are going to disrupt the, the, you know, my analogy here is, is the dinosaurs of 65 million years ago, right?

• 1:15:55Peter Diamandis?

  So these dinosaurs are fat and lumbering and moving along, and, and this asteroid comet strikes the earth, and it changes the The environment so rapidly that the dinosaurs are unable to adapt. And it's the furry mammals that are agile. They're able to adapt to this rapidly changing environment. That are the ones that survive and thrive. And the asteroid striking the earth today is AI. And these exponential technologies that are changing the game faster than, you know. You can snap the head of a CEO of a large old style company.

• 1:16:31Speaker 01

  It's a, it's a great analogy. And so we do look at companies like Nvidia. We get information, where are they choosing to invest themselves in their venture fund? And so recursion therapeutics, perfect example. But you know, and, and, and is enabling drug discovery. You know, at warp speed compared to other, compared to traditional methods. And again, the, the involving AI very importantly. One thing I will say, and this I just found out this week, very hopeful that, that Roche, Roche. Some people call it Genentech there is using it.

• 1:17:14Speaker 01

  Because we've been puzzled, why, why aren't these companies, you know. Racing after these new ways of doing things. It's, it has to do with talent and the kind of talent they have. And there will have to be a changing of the guard, just like there was from pure chemistry to molecular biology, right? Now, now you have to bring technology into it. And, and the way we started this was healthcare and technology in the investment world. Like it seems as though the, the types of investors clash or the analysts clash, you know. They're, they, they, they operate at different cadences. And they have different risk tolerances.

• 1:17:58Speaker 01

  And that's what I think we're dealing with, with your companies, with our companies. But truth will win out.

• 1:18:04Peter Diamandis?

  Yes. And exponential tech and innovation will disrupt it all. And it's not, just to, to close this out here, it's not something if, if, if you're, wherever you are in your life cycle. As an entrepreneur, as a parent, this is not something that's 10 years out or 20 years out, it's the next two or three years. This is the most exciting time ever to be alive. Kathy, congratulations on a 10-year run for ARC Invest. The next 10 years are going to be awesome.

• 1:18:38Speaker 01

  They're going to be wild, Peter, and thank you for all you do to enlighten people. It's so important. Get on the right side of change, right?

• 1:18:48Peter Diamandis?

  Yeah, yeah, and I enjoy our friendship and looking forward to seeing you next March, but more so to see where you're making your bets. And tell us real quick, where do folks go to find out about some of your funds?

• 1:19:05Speaker 01

  Yes, so the site I gave you before, ark-invest.com is our research site. Our fund site is ark-funds.com, and that includes both our ETFs and our venture fund.

• 1:19:20Peter Diamandis?

  Fantastic. Kathy, have a beautiful day.

• 1:19:24Speaker 01

  Thank you so much. Thank you so much.