Why You Can’t Capitulate to Trump

If you want to understand the ruins of President Trump’s foreign policy, look no further than Canada. Trump tried to strong-arm America’s trading partner and closest ally with punishing tariffs and threats of becoming the “51st state” in order to extract more concessions. The result? A recent poll found that 41 percent of Canadians now consider the United States an enemy country. Prime Minister Mark Carney is pursuing closer trade ties with China and Europe in order to diversify away from the U. S. And in August, he walked away from trade talks with the Trump administration, barreling our two countries toward a Jan. 1 deadline when huge new tariffs will go into effect. Trump’s theory of power appears to have failed here because Canada — even though it’s the weaker party — simply refused to capitulate. There’s a broader lesson in that. Chrystia Freeland served in a number of senior roles in the Canadian government, including deputy prime minister, minister of finance, and minister of foreign affairs, where she was a lead negotiator for Canada in trade talks with the first Trump administration. She’s the author of a new book, “Unreliable Boyfriend: An Insider’s View of Dealing With a Chaotic Superpower, Plutocrats, and Other Complicated People.” Mentioned: “US business leaders are waking up to the perils of plutopopulism” by Chrystia Freeland “How Democrats Drove Silicon Valley Into Trump’s Arms" by Interesting Times “Jamie Dimon: A Plan for the Western World’s Revival” by Jamie Dimon Book Recommendations: “The Dispossessed: An Ambiguous Utopia” by Ursula K. Le Guin “The Player of Games” by Iain M. Banks “Book of Lives: A Memoir of Sorts” by Margaret Atwood Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected]. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs. This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Jack McCordick. Fact-checking by Kelsey Lannin and Kate Sinclair. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota and Isaac Jones. Our recording engineer is Aman Sahota. Cinematography by Bets Wilkins. Video editing by Kristen Williamson, Julian Hackney and Dani Dillon. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Marie Cascione, Annie Galvin, Kristin Lin, Emma Kehlbeck, Rollin Hu, Marina King and Jan Kobal. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Shows is Annie-Rose Strasser.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:55Ezra Klein?

  No country right now better reveals the transformation of the way the world sees America, the way we've turned from ally and partner to bully and predator than Canada. In late August, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away, walked away from trade talks with the Trump administration.

• 1:14Speaker 03

  Canada is becoming stronger and less dependent on America. We are already giving ourselves more than they can take away, and we are just getting started.

• 1:23Ezra Klein?

  He did so knowing that the retaliation could be ruinous for the Canadian economy. But it's also ruinous and revealing about the shambles of Donald Trump's foreign policy, the way that what Trump is doing is not getting America what Trump wanted. I mean, Trump wanted Canada to be the 51st state.

• 1:42Speaker 04

  They'll end up being the 51st state because it's the only way it works. You know, we don't need them, but they need us.

• 1:50Ezra Klein?

  Instead, they might become an associate member of the European Union. Trump wanted to weaken China in the global sphere.

• 1:58Speaker 04

  You know, we're beating China. You know it. China knows it. In fact, President Xi congratulated me.

• 2:03Ezra Klein?

  Now Carney and Canada are negotiating deals and agreements with all manner of other countries, but including China, including China, in an effort to diversify away from America. And so now, American Canada are hurdling towards this January deadline in which massive new tariffs will go into effect. So who is this helping? And what does it mean not just for Canada, but for America, for our relationship with our neighbors, and for our relationship with the rest of the world? From 2013 till earlier this year, Chrystia Freeland was a member of the Canadian Parliament. She served in a number of senior roles in the Canadian government, including Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance and Minister of Foreign Affairs, where she was a lead negotiator

• 2:46Ezra Klein?

  for Canada in trade talks with the first Trump administration. And now she's the author of a new book, Unreliable Boyfriend: An Insider's View of Dealing with a Chaotic Superpower, Plutocrats, and Other Complicated People. She joins me now. Chrystia Freeland, welcome to the show.

• 3:08Speaker 05

  It is wonderful to be with you, Ezra.

• 3:10Ezra Klein?

  So, a recent Canadian poll found that 41% of Canadians consider the United States an enemy country, enemy country. A Pew poll found more Canadians have a favorable impression of China than of the US. So I guess my question is, how did we get here?

• 3:30Speaker 05

  That is a brilliant place to start.

• 3:33Ezra Klein?

  Thank you.

• 3:34Speaker 05

  And, no, it is. And, no, like, it really is, because I don't think Americans fully realize what has happened. And I'm familiar with both of those polls. What is really interesting, if you compare where we are today and where we were in 2023. And in 2023, obviously, Canadians considered the United States to be an ally and considered China to be an adversary. And that position has actually flipped. And what's happened is Donald Trump and challenges to Canadian sovereignty and tariffs. That's what's happened.

• 4:16Ezra Klein?

  There was a Trump administration before this one. I'm reliably informed of dim memories. How is that different?

• 4:24Speaker 05

  So, I actually don't think President Trump is different. And I think it's important for people to remember, he tried all this stuff in the first administration, and he did a lot of it, right? He did impose tariffs on Canada and allies, the 232 steel and aluminum tariffs. He didn't threaten our sovereignty, but he said lots of mean things about us and about lots of Europeans. Remember, he famously threw those candies at Angela Merkel at the G7 meeting?

• 4:57Ezra Klein?

  No.

• 4:58Speaker 05

  Yes, I was there.

• 4:59Ezra Klein?

  He threw candies at Angela Merkel?

• 5:00Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 5:01Ezra Klein?

  I don't remember this at all.

• 5:02Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah, no, no, he did, he did. It was at a G7 meeting that Canada was hosting, and the G7 leaders were trying to convince the United States to sign on to what was like a totally historically milquetoast, everyone agreed with it clause about, you know, we together agree on the rules-based international order. They could not get Trump to agree. He really didn't like the fact that he was the only one disagreeing with the group. Angela Merkel, who I think was actually quite magnificent in how she handled Trump, was the one sort of sitting in the middle.

• 5:42Speaker 05

  And as he left, he took some candies out of his pocket and actually threw them at Angela Merkel.

• 5:49Ezra Klein?

  When you say she was magnificent in how she handled Trump, how did she handle Trump?

• 5:53Speaker 05

  So I think she got it right.

• 5:56Ezra Klein?

  Angela Merkel, the former Chancellor of Germany, for people who are less up on German politics.

• 6:01Speaker 05

  Her view, and I think this was shaped by the many years she spent dealing with Vladimir Putin, who could be insulting and demeaning and really try to knock her off her game. He knew she was frightened of dogs, and so he would bring in a dog sometimes in the meeting. So she was kind of used to...

• 6:24Ezra Klein?

  Yeah, Putin does a lot of psychological warfare kind of things.

• 6:27Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah. So she was kind of used to dealing with bullies. And her approach, I think shaped by that, to President Trump was to be what you would say in French is correct, like, to be just cool, calm, not to try to be sycophantic, not to try to curry favor, not also to fight him, but just to be very clear, rational in her approach. And, you know, I think there are leaders who have thought, I can win this guy over, you know? I can give him the shiniest prize.

• 7:11Speaker 05

  I can give him a gold, you know, a gold watch that's encrusted with diamonds. I can give him the most, you know, I can flatter him in the most outrageous way.

• 7:22Ezra Klein?

  Who's had that strategy?

• 7:23Speaker 05

  I think most people have tried it, actually. And I think that strategy is in part based oddly on underestimating Trump, right? I think there are a lot of leaders who think Trump is dumber than they are. And so they think, well, I'll just sort of butter him up. I will outrageously flatter him, and maybe I'll agree to some things he wants, but it'll just be on paper, it won't be real, and it'll all be fine. I don't think that's the right approach. I think a sort of cool, calm, during the first NAFTA negotiations, our approach and,

• 8:07Speaker 05

  you know, a line I must have said a million times, maybe not a million, but many, many in public, was, we do not escalate and we do not back down. And I think that kind of steady, I'm not going to suck up to you, I'm not going to be bullied by you, but also, I'm not going to kind of raise the emotional register with you. I think that's the way to deal with the president.

• 8:31Ezra Klein?

  What does, what does the world in which this goes to full-on trade war, or continues in full-on trade war, look like? What can Canada's economy withstand what America is doing? And what is Canada's response to America, given the size differential?

• 8:48Speaker 05

  The first thing I would say is I think Canadians are very realistic about the fact that this is an asymmetric...

• 9:03Speaker 05

  Standoff, shall we say, or this is an asymmetric confrontation. And it means it will be more painful for Canada. Canadians recognize that. But Canadians also really recognize the stakes. It matters more for us. And I am really confident that Canadians will hold the line. So we have been in a version of here before. And the last time the United States imposed tariffs on Canada, we retaliated dollar for dollar. I was the minister responsible for that. And ultimately, America dropped its tariffs.

• 9:45Speaker 05

  And the reason America dropped its tariffs was twofold. One, imposing tariffs on our exports to you actually hurt you. That that that's what is perverse about all of this is, you know, the notion that somehow America is better off when it imposes tariffs on Canadian aluminum is just perverse. We're actually doing you a favor by getting you to drop those tariffs. Because tariffs on Canadian aluminum are a tax on electricity. You yourselves are choosing to make electricity more expensive. And you're also

• 10:29Ezra Klein?

  Explain the mechanism there.

• 10:30Speaker 05

  Well, aluminum is basically electricity in solid form. That's all it is. That's why Quebec produces a lot of aluminum, because it has cheap hydroelectricity. And when you put a 50% tariff on aluminum, you're putting a 50% tariff on electricity. The aluminum that Canada normally exports to the United States contains the amount of electricity equivalent to more than 450 data centers, equivalent to the output of half a dozen Hoover dams. It's a lot of power. And you are choosing voluntarily to say, we're going to make that 50% more expensive. Like, that's the whole absurdity of these tariff wars.

• 11:13Ezra Klein?

  When Trump says things we buy from Canada become more expensive, he's taxing things Americans buy.

• 11:18Speaker 05

  Right.

• 11:18Ezra Klein?

  That's the literal.

• 11:19Speaker 05

  That's like, like that, exactly. Like, that's like, the absurdity here is the initial thing that you want to do and you are seeking to do unopposed is actually bad for you.

• 11:33Ezra Klein?

  But it's also bad for you.

• 11:34Speaker 05

  Right, for sure, for sure it is. But you are getting that pain. And one reason, and this is kind of a technical reason, Ezra, but I know that you're a wonky person. One reason, one advantage Canada has in a trade fight with the United States, and one reason imposing tariffs on Canada is just so dumb, is we mostly export intermediate goods to you. So the stuff that we sell you is mostly stuff you use to make stuff yourselves. And so by imposing tariffs on the stuff

• 12:12Ezra Klein?

  Give some examples of intermediate goods.

• 12:14Speaker 05

  So aluminum is an intermediate good. Very few people go to the store and say, I'd like to buy a ton of aluminum. Aluminum is used by, you know, companies to build stuff. Another really good example is the softwood lumber that we export to you. Very few people just like buy the wood, but people maybe buy a house or buy a table. Potash, another great example. Farmers buy potash. I grew up on a farm, so. But actually, farmers don't even buy raw potash. But farmers buy potash turned into fertilizer. But everyone uses potash because we like to eat.

• 12:57Speaker 05

  So, you know, tariffs on Canadian goods make stuff in the United States more expensive. And then Canada's retaliation actually has an impact. It's true that the Canadian economy is smaller than the American one, obviously. It's true that Canada is more exposed to trade in general than the United States, obviously. But we actually were your biggest market, larger than China, Japan, and the UK combined. You guys aren't major exporters. But insofar as you have an export market, your first one is us. So our tariffs can have an impact.

• 13:38Ezra Klein?

  So can you describe, because I think it's more for Americans thinking about what it might mean for for our economy. Much like China targeted essential parts of the American manufacturing process with, you know, rare earth magnets and things of that nature. There seems to be a view on Canada's part that it can cause outsized pain by focusing on, you know, things like auto manufacturing.

• 14:07Speaker 05

  Yeah, look, this is trade policy 101. It's not something that Canada invented. It's what we did in 2018. And by the way, in 2018, we were joined by the EU, which was really important. And I would love if the EU came on board this time. In 2018, we were joined by the EU and by Mexico. The way to retaliate is you try to do two things. Inflict maximum pain on your adversary. And I hate like even using those terms when it comes to the United States because Canadians like really do not wish Americans ill.

• 14:47Speaker 05

  They just want not to be the target of unjustified and illegal tariffs. But once you're in that situation, you want to inflict, let's say, maximum pressure on the other side and minimum pain on yourself. So the minimum pain on yourself is you try to avoid imposing tariffs on the intermediate goods. You don't want your own economy to suffer. You don't want your own manufacturers to suffer. You try to impose the counter tariffs on things that are easily substitutable. And then you try to target your retaliation so that it hits politically sensitive constituencies.

• 15:30Speaker 05

  So you look at who are the influential senators? Who are the influential members of Congress? Which are the swing states that the White House depends on? And you try to be sure that your retaliation is hitting there so that people recognize the tariffs are hurting them. So Smucker's Jam, this was in 2018, turned out to be a really great thing that we targeted, made in Ohio. And I had a conversation with Sherrod Brown, who like you wouldn't have expected to be a defender of Trumpian trade policy. And I want to be clear, he was not. He is a great guy, was a great partner, and ultimately supported our renegotiated deal. But at one point, he said to me,

• 16:14Speaker 05

  could you guys ease off on Smucker's Jam, please? It's like really hurting my constituents. And I said, Sherrod, with all due respect, that's the point. We want your constituents to be complaining to you. And we want you to go out and say, you guys might lose your job because of Trump's stupid trade war with Canada. And I'll give you one example of how this is starting to work. So as you may have heard, there's a pretty important Senate race in Michigan.

• 16:49Ezra Klein?

  I have heard that.

• 16:50Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah. The Republican candidate has done an ad where he is drinking Labatt's Canadian beer. And he says how bad the tariffs are.

• 17:01Speaker 06

  Drinking a Labatt and watching the Red Wings, man, it just doesn't get any more Michigan than that. And here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now.

• 17:12Speaker 05

  So the Republican guy who, you know, is part of a party that is imposing these tariffs is doing everything he can, including visual cues to say, I'm on Team Canada's side.

• 17:25Ezra Klein?

  So you are central in the trade negotiations between Canada and America in the first Trump term. How did that resolve? Why did that not escalate into what we're seeing now?

• 17:38Speaker 05

  Well, it did escalate.

• 17:40Ezra Klein?

  But not to where we are now?

• 17:43Speaker 05

  Not far off, actually. The night before that trade retaliation went into force, President Trump called then Prime Minister Trudeau and threatened him with the destruction of the Canadian economy if Canada went ahead. He told him he should fire me and called me a nasty woman. And, you know, I really give Justin Trudeau a lot of credit for holding his nerve. And you saw then what you're seeing now, which is that Canadians understood the stakes and Canadians supported that action. We did have, you know, an intense trade conflict. And we got to a deal.

• 18:27Speaker 05

  And we got to a deal that Donald Trump said was the best trade deal ever, that Nancy Pelosi supported too, that Sherrod Brown voted for. So we had the fight and we had a positive conclusion. One thing that really helped was we had Republican allies. You know, people like John McCain, people like Chuck Grassley. Even at the end of the day, Bob Lighthizer, who was the USTR. And was someone with whom I had many tense moments. But at the end of the day, he is a very, very smart, very, very sophisticated trade negotiator.

• 19:12Speaker 05

  And he understood, actually, it is in the interests of the United States to have a trade agreement with Canada. And so I think for those reasons and with those voices on our side, we were able to get a deal.

• 19:28Ezra Klein?

  So is this what you mean when you say that Trump was not that different between the two terms? But in the first term, he had, from your description of this, less control of the Republican Party. There were more independent voices, you know, who had their own power bases, much more so than there are today. Think of John McCain, you think of Paul Ryan for part of that. And then Trump's staff did not treat him in the way they do now as this great man of history who cannot be questioned and in fact, should have his impulses accelerated. That there are people there who are also trying to guide and restrain Trump, even if they agreed with him on some dimensions of what he wanted to do.

• 20:13Speaker 05

  Yeah, I think that's right. And, you know, I think it's

• 20:22Speaker 05

  When you are the leader of a country, or even a minister, the job of the people around you is, yes, to help you accomplish the things you want to accomplish, but also to stop you from doing dumb stuff. And sometimes the way to help you accomplish what you want to accomplish is to say no to you. You know, I would say the war in Iran is a great example. President Trump would be much more effective had America not started that war of choice. And so people in his entourage, had they managed to convince him not to wage that war, they would have been doing him a favor. And I think, you know, for sure, there's less of that.

• 21:07Speaker 05

  But the other thing I would say, Ezra, that is a big difference. And you're American, I'm not. So maybe you can explain this difference to me. I think this, a big, big difference is the capitulation to the president seems across all of America, seems much more widespread than it was in the first Trump administration. And, you know, inevitably, that does seem to embolden the president. And for America's friends and allies, it makes people ask, is this just about the president? Or is this about the whole country?

• 21:52Ezra Klein?

  I think that was truer in the first eight months, 10 months broadly than it is now. I do think it happened.

• 21:59Speaker 05

  But you think the tide is starting to turn?

• 22:02Ezra Klein?

  I don't think that civil society, I don't think the Democratic Party, I don't think the country writ large has been, you know, laying down before Trump in the way that much of it was what we saw with law firms and universities in the first months. I do think the biggest problem is the Republican Party is. And when President Trump has a Republican majority in Congress and you have a political system where the check on the president is first and foremost, a Congress jealous of its own prerogatives and committed to the national interest. If Congress is captured,

• 22:46Ezra Klein?

  if it is intimidated, there's no real check. And so it's not like American society, as you know perfectly well. I think an amazing poll is that Prime Minister Mark Carney's tariff reprisals against Donald Trump are more popular with Americans than Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada are. I mean, literally, in a trade war, in polls, Americans are taking the Canadian side. The other thing, though, this is where I think you're a little bit underselling how different Trump 2 is from Trump 1. Because even in the story you tell in the book, the trade negotiations in Trump 1 feel like they are about trade. And they're ultimately resolved through questions of trade.

• 23:29Ezra Klein?

  And that may be true here. But the trade negotiations in Trump 2 seem like they are about dominance, tribute, how affronted Trump is that Canada does not want to become the 51st state in a way that has not been easily solvable through, say, higher labor standards on auto manufacturing. Where that came from in Trump, I think, is an interesting question. But that has been much more present in Trump 2 than I think it was in Trump 1.

• 24:04Speaker 05

  You're totally right. And I think that it was always there. I think that there was always that, I'm not even going to call it latent, but it was more than that. There was always that drive to domination. But you're absolutely right that in this iteration, it has become absolutely explicit. And I do think that Trump's Washington, you know, their offer to the rest of the world is you choose either to be a vassal or fight your way to being an equal.

• 24:48Speaker 05

  And for a country, you kind of have to decide, which lane are you going to pick? If you pick the vassal lane, then I think be Delcy Rodriguez and, you know, negotiate the best possible terms of submission. Obviously, that is never the lane that Canada would choose. And so, you know, you said, Ezra, it's harder to know what to do. In some ways, it's easier because although the situation Canada finds itself in is dreadful, there is a very deep national consensus that, given that our sovereignty is actually being questioned,

• 25:33Speaker 05

  the only thing for us to do is to stand up for ourselves. And, you know, that's the view of the current Liberal Government. But Stephen Harper, who was a very long-serving Conservative Prime Minister, said in early 2025, when the issue of sovereignty was first really being raised, he said, "Canada should be prepared to pay whatever the economic price is if it is about defending our sovereignty." So, and I think, I hope Americans would agree that if they were in that position, that's the view they would take too.

• 26:16Speaker 05

  And maybe that poll you cited about the tariffs speaks to that.

• 26:20Ezra Klein?

  Well, this feels to me like a place where Donald Trump has, in profound ways, underestimated or misapprehended the psychology of other people and other places, which is the core of the Trump administration's case is transactional. America is bigger. We should get more. Bob Lighthizer, the former Trade Representative, said to you in a trade negotiation at some point, you say this in the book, that America is 10 times a Canadian economy. He should get his way 10 times as often as you do. And the thing is that people aren't governed

• 27:03Ezra Klein?

  as, in their souls, as transactionally as Trump is. So you might, it would, I think, be easy to imagine a world in which Prime Minister Carney, walking away from the trade table with Trump, threatening pretty ruinous levels of tariffs on the Canadian economy would be an unpopular move. By simplest, he's now the most popular Prime Minister in Canadian history. Trump very arguably elected Carney in the first place with a sort of threat to Canadian sovereignty because the more Conservative Party in Canada had been surging before Trump sort of nationalized and united Canada against him. And I think this is really important because it gets to this question of whether or not Trumpian foreign policy will work. Right? Whether or not it does what it says on the tin and gets America more power and more wealth.

• 27:48Ezra Klein?

  If you misunderstand the way people will react to you, if you think you're going to get them to accept a better deal and actually what you're going to do is turn them against you in a non-transactional way, like you're going to unite them spiritually against you, well, then your foreign policy is going to fail.

• 28:06Speaker 05

  Yeah. Look, I think you are 100% right. And I would even go further. Like, I think there is this huge miscalculation when it comes to what will the impact on other countries be. I would say the world's capitulation contributed to this Trump administration thinking it would work. Because, you know, at the beginning, it wasn't only Americans who were trying out appeasement. So did most of the rest of the world. So it's, I'm not going to say understandable, but it is easier to understand why,

• 28:49Speaker 05

  you know, when Liberation Day, quote unquote Liberation Day, was met with appeasement, that, you know, the Trump team said, hey, this is working.

• 28:59Ezra Klein?

  Describe what you mean by appeasement.

• 29:01Speaker 05

  Well, countries accepting the imposition of unilateral tariffs. Shocking, really. And, you know, the Trump, Trump administration officials themselves said, as these tariffs were being proposed, that they expected that other countries would retaliate. And most of the world didn't. The exceptions were China and Canada. That was a mistake. So I agree with your point that beating up on your friends is actually not going to make them give in and do what you want. But I would add another twist to this, Ezra,

• 29:42Speaker 05

  which is even if this approach to trade were to quote unquote "work" and you were to have your partners really give in and accept the approach that is being pushed on them by the United States, it would actually be a bad outcome for the United States.

• 30:13Speaker 07

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• 31:06Speaker 00

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• 31:11Speaker 01

  Tax loss harvesting is a tax management strategy. When you have a position that's gone down over time, we intentionally sell out of it to realize a loss, which we then say to the IRS, hey, we lost money. You get to use that to offset your ordinary income every year, decreasing your tax burden.

• 31:28Speaker 00

  Investing involves risk. Performance not guaranteed. Betterment does not offer tax advice. TLH may not be suitable for all customers. Learn more at betterment.com/TLH-terms.

• 31:37Ezra Klein?

  So go back to that Lighthizer quote to you, which I find very telling. America is 10 times your economy. We should get away 10 times as often. The corollary, the obvious international relations, realist way of thinking about that relationship, is a world in which America acts that way. If we are 10 times your economy and we are much more than 10 times your military, we are a tremendous threat to you at all times.

• 32:09Ezra Klein?

  And a world in which the Western superpower is a threat to everybody in its reach, which is everybody, is a world in which all the other countries maybe cut deals with us in the short term, but in the background are banding together to contain our threat in the long term. So in the last couple of years, I mean, two years, Canada has signed a trade deal with China.

• 32:39Speaker 05

  Not quite.

• 32:40Ezra Klein?

  How would you describe it? It's a...

• 32:42Speaker 05

  Like, a trade deal is like a big thing, but Canada did a deal with China. How's that?

• 32:47Ezra Klein?

  China has begun forging closer trade ties with China and being very public about that.

• 32:52Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah.

• 32:53Ezra Klein?

  Canada, instead of becoming the 51st state, has begun talking about becoming an associate member of the European Union, which I didn't quite expect that to happen.

• 33:04Speaker 05

  Really?

• 33:05Ezra Klein?

  Yes.

• 33:07Speaker 05

  Oh.

• 33:09Speaker 05

  I, Canadians very much expected that to happen.

• 33:14Ezra Klein?

  Wait, so then tell me, tell me more about that. Why have Canadians wanted to be an associate member of the EU rather than our proud 51st?

• 33:23Speaker 05

  Oh, my God, Ezra, don't say that. We can't.

• 33:28Speaker 05

  Canada will not be the 51st state. Let me just be really clear. And we don't, I know you didn't mean it this way, but we do not treat it as a joke. On the EU, this is something that, in a joking, not joking way, we started to talk about in the first Trump administration. Because just a couple of weeks before President Trump was elected for the first time, Canada concluded our free trade agreement with the EU. I was the lead negotiator. And what is not widely appreciated is that deal is actually, on paper, a much deeper

• 34:10Speaker 05

  trade agreement than the USMCA, because it includes government procurement. So Canada and the EU open up government procurement to each other. So we had that foundation. And then, when Trump was elected for the first time, and for the first time started beating us up with tariffs, we had become friends with the negotiation of CETA, our trade deal with Europe. And we talked, in a kind of joking, not joking way, pretty regularly with the EU about how if NAFTA fell apart, if our trade deal with the United States didn't work, would the Europeans let us be members?

• 34:51Speaker 05

  And it even got to a point where Cecilia Malmström, she is a wonderful Swedish liberal, was the EU Trade Commissioner. She was dealing with the US. I was too. We would text each other and talk to each other. And we developed this shorthand where if you said, I am in Mordor, that meant I'm in Washington.

• 35:17Speaker 05

  Cecilia once sent me a text saying Gandalf is going to Mordor next week. Obvious to me what that meant. Anglo Merkel going to Washington. In the shorthand, the elves were the Europeans. Hobbits were Canadian. I didn't mind that. I'm very small. I don't have huge feet, but in other respects, I'm not dissimilar to a hobbit. Grew up on a farm and stuff. And of course, I think you know who Sauron was.

• 35:48Ezra Klein?

  And so were you constantly going back and forth from the Shire, then?

• 35:51Speaker 05

  Yes. Oh, definitely. I would say, like, safely back in the Shire, for sure. And by the way, I felt that way. I felt like that relief.

• 36:01Ezra Klein?

  That's the other side of that deal-making strategy, that you force people to begin treating you as a threat, which means figuring out how to create defenses against you. And in the long run, this is classic IR theory, figuring out how to weaken and undermine you.

• 36:19Speaker 05

  100% correct. I mean, I think that the Trump administration is unintentionally revealing the genius of the post-war American establishment. And, you know, it's actually remarkable what they did. They created an alliance based on the idea that they would be better off if their allies were stronger and more prosperous. They actually invested in the post-war reconstruction of Germany and Japan. They actually, you know, America was in this position of unmatched dominance after the Second World War.

• 37:02Speaker 05

  And it decided to build an alliance. And, you know, from the position of a country that was not America, very easy to bitch about that alliance. And by the way, when you guys are not in the room, we always have, right? And these were never truly equal partnerships. America was always first among equals. But America did actually listen to its allies. America was governed by this general idea that this is a win-win partnership, that we will get rich together, that the prosperity of one country, far from, within the group

• 37:45Speaker 05

  of allies, far from being a threat, is actually going to help us, and that we have an interest in each other's security.

• 37:54Speaker 05

  And like, wow, such a great idea. And a great idea for America. Like, that is what made America different from the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union certainly did not have partners. It only had vassals. Same with China. That's how America was a distinctive superpower. And when Tim Snyder talks about superpower suicide, what he means is America voluntarily wrecking that. And I think you're totally right.

• 38:29Speaker 05

  Like, part of why this incredibly ill-conceived approach seems to have been pursued is no one thought about the next step. No one thought about, okay, if we do that, what are our counterparties going to do? And the counterparties are doing two things. One is try to become as not dependent on America as possible. Disentangle those ties as much as they can, particularly in the military space, but also economically. And that's bad for America materially.

• 39:13Speaker 05

  You know, countries are going to think really hard before they buy another F-35 controlled by the Pentagon. Why would you want a jet that Americans control?

• 39:23Ezra Klein?

  Europe and Canada. Obsessed with having an alternative to Starlink.

• 39:26Speaker 05

  And so is Ukraine.

• 39:27Ezra Klein?

  And so is Ukraine.

• 39:28Speaker 05

  Rightly so, you know, so become less dependent. So, American companies get less money. They have fewer clients, but then also America has less leverage. And the part about all of this that I find so, it's not just depressing, but horrifying is the biggest winner is China. Because as with that poll that you cited at the beginning of our conversation Ezra, we are now in a world where citizens of democracies of countries that have been

• 40:08Speaker 05

  US allies for generations now believe the United States is a greater threat than China. And this is she's China. This is a China which is more authoritarian than it has been in decades. So I find sort of a world where

• 40:29Speaker 05

  every country that is not the United States or China is engaged in a balancing act between these two predatory hegemon's to be a really bad world.

• 40:40Ezra Klein?

  And just to add some data to that, the Democracy Perception Index put out a survey of 98 countries. The US was the fifth worst perceived country. We were just ahead of Iran, two spots behind Russia. China among these countries was net favorable. One of the, again, going back to the question of even instrumentally, even from the Trump administration's promises and perspective, is this working? To the extent that the Trump administration had a coherent theory of the case, it has always been about American competition with China. American competition for power, American competition for manufacturing capacity, American competition for geopolitical influence, American competition at some level for hearts and minds.

• 41:23Speaker 05

  Even now for technology and AI.

• 41:25Ezra Klein?

  For technology and AI.

• 41:28Ezra Klein?

  Trump has acted like a Manchurian agent. I mean, he has put China in incredibly strong position compared to where it was even a couple of years ago. And one, one way in which he has done that is what countries want above all from counterparties is predictability and reliability. China has a lot of problems.

• 41:49Speaker 05

  Unreliable boyfriend.

• 41:51Ezra Klein?

  Unreliable boyfriend. What they are is fairly predictable and reliable.

• 41:57Ezra Klein?

  I'm, you don't, you wouldn't say that's true in deals people make with them?

• 42:01Speaker 05

  So, look, I think that I totally agree with your observation that there has not been a president who has been more beneficial for China than Donald Trump.

• 42:18Speaker 05

  Astonishing, astonishing how this has helped China. The Economist had a great cover, said, you know, don't interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake. And I think that's like the Chinese.

• 42:29Ezra Klein?

  Yeah, wasn't it she looking at Trump?

• 42:31Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah. And you know, and I think that is 100% correct. The only thing that I would take issue with a little bit is I would say, let's not fall for the Chinese propaganda. Right? The Chinese line is, okay, you might not like us. You might think it's bad that we oppress Uighurs and Tibetans and that we crushed liberties in Hong Kong. But don't pay attention to that, like, don't be like a nam be pam be liberal. You can trust us as an international player because we play by the rules. We are not, we are not a power that seeks to expand. We're not a power that seeks to dominate.

• 43:16Speaker 05

  We actually believe in the rules based international order. So kind of, you know, we might, I might be beating up my wife and kids at home. But, you know, when I'm outside in the world, I'm a trustworthy partner. And a partner who, and this is critical in what China is saying right now, a partner who is supportive of the rules based international order and multilateralism. And I don't think that's quite true. And where I think it's not true is, first of all, in trade, China broke the global trading system through intentional overcapacity

• 43:57Speaker 05

  and through intentional and pretty vicious building of supply chain dominance. And that's one of the things that got Trump elected, not the only thing, but one of the things. And that's an area where I think he has a point. And then the second thing is, I think we should be careful about believing the Chinese assertions that, you know, they don't want to change us, that they want, you know, the world just to kind of have have rules based multilateralism. China definitely wants to change Taiwan. And China passed a law that gives it extraterritorial authority

• 44:43Speaker 05

  as deemed by itself over political forces outside China that China deems to be acting against China's ethnic unity. So, and, you know, final thing I would say is China has been pretty Stephen Miller-esque, the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must in its foreign policy.

• 45:12Ezra Klein?

  The iron law of power.

• 45:13Speaker 05

  Right, exactly. The only difference is China has done it effectively. So when Norway granted a Nobel Prize to a Chinese writer, okay, like, that's not something the Norwegian government is the boss of, but China punished Norway. And China punished Norway by banning salmon exports. And Norway had to grovel and kowtow to get them reinstated. When Lithuania wanted to have a relationship with Taiwan, China imposed economic punishment on Lithuania. When Canada honored our extradition treaty with the United States

• 45:50Speaker 05

  and arrested, but like, under pretty nice house arrest in a $5 million Vancouver mansion, the CFO of Huawei, two Canadians were illegally arrested and detained in conditions that experts said amounted to torture. So China is very good at imposing dominance and vassalage on countries that it thinks ought to obey.

• 46:19Ezra Klein?

  It's funny, I don't think, I agree with you. I don't think we're saying something different, but I realize where the difference is when you were saying that. I don't think the rules based international order is a concept that still has meaning.

• 46:32Ezra Klein?

  And so when.

• 46:35Speaker 05

  Maybe it has meaning, but it doesn't exist.

• 46:37Ezra Klein?

  Yes, yes, I understand. I understand linguistically what you are gesturing towards.

• 46:43Speaker 05

  Yeah, no, no, like, like it could exist, you know what I mean? It's not.

• 46:47Ezra Klein?

  But, but the point I'm making about this is that I think that a lot of the conversation is like caught on this nostalgia for a thing that arguably has not existed for a while and definitely does not exist now. And that what China is pointing the way towards, when I say China is reliable, I don't mean they are reliable as a multilateral partner who upholds a fair and neutral rules based order. They're obviously not reliable at that.

• 47:14Speaker 05

  But that's how they pitch themselves.

• 47:16Ezra Klein?

  I agree, that's how they pitch themselves. I think that they are broadly speaking, a predictable counterparty in, in quite often very unequal relationships, whereas Trump is an erratic counterparty.

• 47:30Speaker 05

  A predictable predatory hegemon.

• 47:32Ezra Klein?

  Yes, so, so if you're Taiwan, you know what China wants from you. And to some of you, if you're Norway, you know what China wants from you, you know what are their, their red lines are going to be, right? This is a bad system to move towards, right? This system is a regression towards older forms of geopolitics that we moved past through a lot of blood. But this is the tragedy.

• 47:58Speaker 05

  Yeah, fully agree. And I think another way of putting it might be China is what an effective Trump administration would seek to become.

• 48:07Ezra Klein?

  That's interesting.

• 48:08Speaker 05

  Right? Like a predatory hegemon, but that's good at it. And I would include that's good at mercantilism. And that is good at running a rent seeking kleptocratic state.

• 48:25Speaker 05

  So, yeah, China, I, I agree with you. China is good at being

• 48:32Speaker 05

  a 19th century style, totally immoral, self-dealing interested elite at the top superpower. And if, you know, a totally dystopian.

• 48:48Ezra Klein?

  Interested, I don't even think you have to say totally immoral. They are, some things they do are immoral, some things are amoral, something, but they are extremely transactional in pursuit of their own power. It's why I think we are right when you say in some ways they're what Trump only promises to be.

• 49:03Speaker 05

  But I think there is some actual immorality there too. Like, it's the difference between abusing your workers just to make money and wiping out the Uighurs and the Tibetans because you believe there should be one Han people.

• 49:23Speaker 05

  Do you see what I mean?

• 49:23Ezra Klein?

  Yeah.

• 49:24Speaker 05

  They're like, like the objective.

• 49:27Ezra Klein?

  Yeah, I don't want to be here defending Chinese treatment of Uighurs.

• 49:30Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah, no, but like I'm saying is, yeah, I know it's not, but like the, the abuse, what I guess what I'm trying to say here, which I think is an important distinction, is it's not just like a ruthless pursuit of economic efficiency.

• 49:44Ezra Klein?

  Oh, that's what I said, a pursuit of power. And, and I think this is not a new thing. Longstanding view of particularly large regimes is power comes from enforced social solidarity, which can often mean the extinguishing of difference.

• 50:02Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 50:03Ezra Klein?

  That is a scary thing, right? I do not want to live in a world ruled by China. I don't want to live under Chinese rule.

• 50:12Ezra Klein?

  This world where you're caught between China and America is a tough world for everybody who's not China and America, and possibly a tough world for America too.

• 50:23Speaker 05

  I 100% agree. And I, the only sort of stipulation I would add is this world where you're caught between China and a predatory America, right? An America, a Trump America. It's a terrible world. I think that in that world, America is less rich, it does less well economically, and I think America is less free. You know, the danger for America, that it shifts from being, broadly, I don't want to, you know, romanticize pre-Trump America, but broadly, a rules-based market economy

• 51:07Speaker 05

  to a kleptocracy where rent-seeking is the way that businesses prosper. And, you know, history is replete with examples of how, when you flip to rent-seeking, it can be good for the individual rent-seekers, but it is always terrible for the country as a whole. So I think it's a, it's a bad option for America, and it's a really bad option for the world's democracies. I'll give you an example of the benefits of a benign America that I came across just this week. I was talking with a Brazilian about the Brazilian

• 51:47Speaker 05

  elections. And this is a progressive. This is someone who is very much anti-Bolsonaro. And this person said, you know, the problem is, even if a miracle happens and Bolsonaro doesn't win, and by the way, this person is predicting Bolsonaro will win, fair and square. But the person said, even if a miracle happens and Bolsonaro doesn't win, there's a real risk that the vote will not be fairly counted. And then what this person said is, it would be different with a different US administration. Because in the past, something

• 52:26Speaker 05

  that helped guarantee fair election counting was a US administration. And we don't have that now. And I think that kind of impact at the margins is something that the world's democracies will really lose. And again, this is one of the reasons I wrote my book, and kind of one of my big conclusions, is the battleground for liberal democracy in the world is America. And if liberal democracy loses here, it's going to be in tough shape in the rest of the world.

• 53:11Speaker 07

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• 54:23Ezra Klein?

  We've had Bad Bunny, Olivia Rodrigo, and Anne Hathaway. We've also hosted live performances with Andre 3000 and Erykah Badu. Plus, we end every conversation with a snack. Catch new episodes of PopCast every week on YouTube. And anywhere you get your podcasts.

• 54:40Ezra Klein?

  In the first term, if you looked at people like Jeff Bezos, or Mark Zuckerberg, a lot of people at the top of the economy, you know, they were very opposed to what Trump seemed to mean for how to do business in America, right? They didn't like what he meant for democracy. They didn't like what he meant for openness to immigrants. They didn't like what he meant for our values. But they also didn't like this idea that you would have this transactional pay-to-play system. And to, you know, they, they were not in his coalition. In the second term, to varying degrees, many of them have been, you know, going all the way up to Elon Musk, who just dumped $250 million or something to try to save Republicans in the midterms. And it has a kind of antecedent in your book

• 55:22Ezra Klein?

  from your time in Moscow, post-Soviet Union's crackup, watching the, the sort of oligarchs take over. And so I'd be curious how this has looked to you, played out to you, because in some other world, it's American business executives who are very, very strong in talking Trump down from the tariffs. But I don't think they've been as strong as they would have been in the first term.

• 55:43Speaker 05

  Um, yeah, I totally agree with you, Ezra. And it's really frightening to me, actually, because of what I saw in Russia. I don't want to stretch it too far, right? Like, you know, Russia tried to become a democracy in the 90s, but never fully got there. America is arguably the world's strongest democracy.

• 56:10Ezra Klein?

  Arguably.

• 56:11Speaker 05

  Arguably, arguably. And, you know, Russia never fully built a really freely functioning market economy. So many, many differences, but parallels too. And, you know, what I saw in Russia in the 90s was, the men who became oligarchs were broadly, like, really smart guys, innovative, entrepreneurial, you know, PhDs in math and physics. In a different environment, they might have become like a Silicon Valley founder. But they were smart enough to figure out, the best way to get super rich is to get the government

• 56:50Speaker 05

  to give you an oil company. It is a way to get very rich, very fast. But then, as they sort of realized this, they decided that they could control the state. And it started with Yeltsin. But then, as Yeltsin was fading, they needed to put someone else in his place. And it was actually the oligarchs, or at least one of the oligarchs, who put Putin in place. And the thinking was, he will be our guy, and ultimately, we will manipulate him. We're so much smarter than this guy. He's like a primitive KGB agent. We're like

• 57:31Speaker 05

  brilliant business entrepreneur guys. But of course, he got the last laugh. And once he was firmly installed in power, he showed them he was boss. And that was him. That should be a cautionary tale for America's plutocrats. And I think they should be very careful about thinking that they can control President Trump.

• 57:58Ezra Klein?

  Do you think they think they can control him? I don't actually think that's what they believe.

• 58:04Speaker 05

  Elon Musk?

• 58:05Ezra Klein?

  I don't think he thinks he can control him.

• 58:06Speaker 05

  Really?

• 58:07Ezra Klein?

  Yeah.

• 58:07Speaker 05

  Do you think he ever did?

• 58:09Ezra Klein?

  I don't know. Trump didn't come from where Putin did, right? Trump was already president when they began, had already been president once, when they began moving towards him. Trump had be, had developed particularly around the assassination attempt, which is when Musk endorses him, this somewhat force of history, great men of history, the, these same people were very angry at the Biden administration. It had snubbed them, it had taxed them, it had regulated them, it had investigated them, it had spoken unkindly of them, it had moderated them, it had done all these things that they-

• 58:41Speaker 05

  Trust busted them.

• 58:42Ezra Klein?

  Trust busted them. So in some cases, actually, for a lot of them, it hadn't, actually. But we can put that to the side. Their level of fury often seemed to me quite outsized to whatever regulatory tax they're willing to pay. It's not like Biden actually did break up Facebook or something. Anyway, what I think they saw in Trump, though, wasn't somebody they could control so much as somebody they could do business with. I think they know they're not in control of him. But particularly now that he won.

• 59:14Ezra Klein?

  They take this system as it is. And this is the real danger of a system mutating into what our political system is mutating into. And the tariffs are part of this. Tariffs are, among other things, a tool of corruption. Is that this is actually the way to prosper and attain power in the system. That then in a world where the Trump administration will go after its enemies and give favorable decisions on mergers and other things to its friends, that I think many of them convince themselves that this is just how you do business. You're not doing anything wrong. It is what it is. That it becomes a, some of them are true believers.

• 59:59Ezra Klein?

  Musk has a very extreme form of politics. I don't think they're all true believers. But the thing that is very frightening about capitulation at the level we've seen and the kind of kleptocratic structure I think Trump is trying to to build, both explicitly and intuitively, is that there becomes a competitive logic to further capitulation. Right? If you-

• 1:00:26Speaker 05

  It's the opposite of the virtuous cycle of collective action.

• 1:00:31Ezra Klein?

  Exactly, right? You're anthropic and Dario Amadei.

• 1:00:33Speaker 05

  Yep.

• 1:00:33Ezra Klein?

  You try to put limits on what, you know, your system will do through the Pentagon. And all of a sudden, you're being potentially declared a supply chain risk and frozen out of all government contracts. Right? Conversely, you're one of the other companies and you say, we'll do what you want, Mr. President, and you get all the contracts. It changes the entire incentive structure in a way that creates this like feedback loop between power and capitulation.

• 1:00:58Speaker 05

  But what I also believe has happened, and this maybe came first, you know, the reason that you saw some big business interests get behind Trump before he was reelected, is a sense, or maybe sense is too weak a word, an observation that populist rage was rising in America, that there were a lot of people who felt left out and an anxiety that that rage could be pretty bad for the 0.1%.

• 1:01:36Speaker 05

  And from that comes the view, okay, here's a guy who can harness that rage. Here's a guy who can be the hero of people who are really unhappy with how things are going right now. And the good news is, he is not going to be a trust buster. He's not going to break up our companies. He is not going to raise our taxes. He's going to find a different direction in which to channel that anger.

• 1:02:07Ezra Klein?

  Here's the only amendment I would make to this. I don't think that what the business titans were describing here feared was populism in the country. I don't think they were worried about laid off steelworkers in Ohio. I don't think that's the kind of rage or power that they feared. I've talked to many of these people. I've heard many of them talk to each other. One of the wonderful things about the podcasting economy is you can listen to billionaires talk to each other and see them talk to each other on Twitter and elsewhere, X. And what they hated, like, say, in Silicon Valley, was the way New York Times covered tech.

• 1:02:51Ezra Klein?

  What they hated was their employees organizing on Slack, demanding they put out Black Lives Matter statements, say nothing of unionizing or, you know, other more threatening things to to the business. And when I think of like what they were trying to bring to heel, and many of them have talked about this very explicitly, you know, Marc Andreessen has talked about this when he did an interview with my former colleague, Ross Douthat, is what they were trying to bring to heel, what they were trying to stop, was this effort by like another part of society with actual power centers to not just regulate them, not just tax them, but to diminish their

• 1:03:33Ezra Klein?

  social status, to say that what they did was bad and it should change and they should not have the pull or the power that they currently have. But I don't think they were worried about populism as like normally understood. I think they were worried about progressivism that was coming from other kinds of power centers in society.

• 1:03:57Speaker 05

  Um, I sort of agree, but with a plus, plus, plus. So I think that there are kind of two parts to kind of the hurt feelings of the super rich. I think one part is exactly what you talk about. It's that it's not quite status anxiety as it is, what is your social position? Are you, do you have the main character energy in the society?

• 1:04:31Ezra Klein?

  Should you be lauded in praise?

• 1:04:33Speaker 05

  Right.

• 1:04:33Ezra Klein?

  Should the garlands of flowers be thrown at your feet for what you've done?

• 1:04:36Speaker 05

  Exactly, exactly. Like, are you the heroes? Because like, you know, there was certainly in kind of Reagan, then Clinton, then, you know, dot com techno optimism, there was this moment of like, yay entrepreneurs, inventors, the heroes. And I think there is, kind of understandably, like, everyone wants to be considered good by their society, a resentment at not being considered good. But I would not overlook, Ezra, the power of material self-interest. And the anxiety being, sure, like, a New York Times columnist might write something

• 1:05:20Speaker 05

  mean about me, but where that becomes really offensive, sufficient to politically organize, is all of those mean columns end up electing a Bernie Sanders or an Elizabeth Warren who is going to tax us, regulate us, and break up our companies.

• 1:05:38Ezra Klein?

  Or they potentiate into a Biden administration that has Lena Kahn-

• 1:05:43Speaker 05

  Right.

• 1:05:43Ezra Klein?

  That is actually trying to tax them.

• 1:05:45Speaker 05

  Yeah. Like, it's not just hurt feelings. It's partly hurt feelings, but it is also my economic interest is going to be hit. And I'm going to put to you a thesis or a possibility, which is, the tide may be turning. I've actually just written a piece for the FT making this argument that I think we're getting, we're reaching a tipping point and that you're going to see a lot less capitulation. Because I think there are a lot of people who decided appeasement was the right thing to do.

• 1:06:25Speaker 05

  And I think a lot of them are deciding, first of all, it actually has just encouraged the president to be even more, even more unhinged. But second of all, I think they think maybe he's going to lose. And if the tide does end up turning, I'm going to say, the moment that it started to turn was the Wall Street Journal piece that Jamie Dimon published on the 28th of September. So just a few weeks ago, I don't know if you saw this, where he called for a massive US-EU trade and economic deal.

• 1:07:05Speaker 05

  And he even described it as a big, beautiful agreement and said, this is what America should be doing. I see that as really significant because the piece that Jamie wrote says it contains no direct criticism of the Trump administration, but its actual content is 180 degrees different from the policies the Trump administration is pursuing. And there is also, I think, a really big group of CEOs who actually think global trade,

• 1:07:44Speaker 05

  particularly with value sharing partners, is a good idea, who believe in the transatlantic alliance, who think Ukraine should win the war with Russia, who think it is nuts to be having a trade war with Canada. I think there are a lot of business leaders like that. Certainly, I talk to a lot of them. Now, I'm Canadian and also support Ukraine, so maybe I know more people like that. But, you know, I talk to a lot of people like that, many of whom actually donated to the Trump election campaign, who are profoundly disappointed right now and even kind of scared by what they see happening. They're scared by the war in Iran.

• 1:08:29Speaker 05

  They are scared by Trump actually siding with Putin rather than Ukraine. They're scared by trade wars that seem about a sort of fight for dominance that-

• 1:08:45Speaker 05

  Americans don't want, like, Americans don't actually want Canada to be the 51st state. They do not want to crush Canada's submission.

• 1:08:54Ezra Klein?

  Or our enemy.

• 1:08:55Speaker 05

  Or your enemy. So I think that we may, I think it will depend on the midterms because I think what we've seen from American business is they're going to be on the side of power. But I think that if they see that President Trump and MAGA no longer deliver at the ballot box, you may start seeing some very different behavior.

• 1:09:21Ezra Klein?

  I think that might be right. I mean, so there's this idea of preference cascades, which are situations where a lot of people hold a preference that they don't yet feel comfortable voicing. And so something changes and then like everything spills out because there's been pressure building up behind a wall. So, so many people will make the argument that there was a preference cascade towards Trump in 2024, that many in the American business community and in the American sort of cultural elite and so on, had actually become very, at the very least, against the Democrats, right? They hated wokeness, they hated Joe Biden, they hated Lena Khan, they hated, you know, the whole kind of situation.

• 1:10:03Ezra Klein?

  But supporting Trump had been culturally looked down upon, maybe you wouldn't get invited back to your galas.

• 1:10:12Speaker 05

  Well, you might get invited, but people would think like

• 1:10:14Ezra Klein?

  Think you're a jerk.

• 1:10:15Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:10:16Ezra Klein?

  So people were sort of holding back and it was once Musk did his endorsement and Andreessen kind of, and then things began, all these people who had actually been quietly pro-Trump, at least somewhat, there was this like rush towards it. And then in the Trump era, because there is a real punishment for getting on Trump's bad side, lots of people at different levels of society, but particularly in the business community here, who actually can't stand this, they have the opinions they had in the first term, they think this is grotesque, but they're mostly quiet because it's a risk. Even something like the Jamie Dimon op-ed you're describing, yes, if you know how to

• 1:10:58Ezra Klein?

  read trade debates, Dimon is disagreeing with Donald Trump, but as you say, it doesn't come out with a critique of Donald Trump.

• 1:11:05Speaker 05

  But it's a disagreement at a profound level, right?

• 1:11:08Ezra Klein?

  Sure, but the, the thing that will tell me the dam has burst is when people say the thing that is true and say, this guy is insanely corrupt and he is harming America's interests. And this is a grotesque way of using the Oval Office and it is against what we stand for, both as a country and as citizens, right? That, I agree, I'm glad Jamie Dimon is standing up for decent trade policy, but I see that as a fairly low bar to clear.

• 1:11:41Speaker 05

  I, so look, yeah, like, agreed. And I would also just kind of going back to these preference cascades, I think part of what was kind of pent up was very well expressed in a great piece that the FT ran right after Trump's reelection, where they quoted an anonymous top banker saying, it's, we can now say pussy and retard again, it's great.

• 1:12:13Ezra Klein?

  Yeah, congratulations, guys.

• 1:12:15Speaker 05

  I mean,

• 1:12:16Ezra Klein?

  Also that they quoted him anonymously is so, some of these people.

• 1:12:20Speaker 05

  And it's so revealing that like, wow, we were so oppressed, we weren't allowed to call people pussies or retards, terrible, the oppression that we suffered under Democrats. But I think there clearly was that. And I guess I do think that there is now pent up among very privileged people, a pent up appreciation that the policies of this administration are bad for America. They are bad for the country as a whole, they are bad for the country economically, they are bad for the country in terms of security.

• 1:13:04Speaker 05

  And business leaders are starting to see that, even people who describe themselves as very conservative, who are quite sympathetic with some of the stated objectives, but I don't think they ever were supportive of America turning into a kleptocracy that was Putin's best friend, that was seeking for Ukraine to lose the war, and that was breaking up the NATO alliance. And that's what's happening.

• 1:13:31Ezra Klein?

  So I want to bring this then back to the US and Canada. If, before January 1st, there is a deal, what do you think that deal will look like? What, what do you think are the core issues that actually could be resolved such that both sides would say, that's good enough, we can, we can step back from this?

• 1:13:54Speaker 05

  So the first thing I would say is, there doesn't have to be a deal before January 1st, there just has to be getting into a negotiation and sort of saying, we're going to have a ceasefire on further tariffs while the negotiation happens. And I think that would be a good place to be in. In terms of where a negotiation goes, what I think would definitely be the outlines of a plausible deal, and this is not just a deal with Canada, actually, I think this could be a deal with the allies writ large, so including the EU and the UK, is America

• 1:14:36Speaker 05

  to say, actually, we want to be your friends, we want to be your trading partners, we actually recognize that trade between us is mutually beneficial, it makes us richer, it makes us safer, but we're concerned about China. And so what we would like to do is to have a common policy on China. I think, and by common, I don't mean, you know, exactly matched tariff policy, but a common approach that has real teeth. Like, I think it's important not to frame it as anything punitive towards China, but to create a space where our economies can flourish as well and where we do not have

• 1:15:21Speaker 05

  a dangerous dependence on China. That, to me, would be the basic logic of the kind of deal that you could have. What I would love to see happen, I'd love to see two things happen. The first is, the rest of the democratic world should join Canada in retaliating against US tariffs. You know, it's great to have declarations of solidarity and say we're all friends, but what should really happen right now is a kind of more in sorrow than in anger, united response from the allies who say, this is not acceptable to us and we're happy to have

• 1:16:04Speaker 05

  negotiations, if there are elements of the trade relationship that you want us to work on, we're happy to do it, but we are not going to accept unilateral tariffs and actually we're going to match them dollar for dollar. And if you had Canada, Mexico, the EU, I'll throw in Japan, South Korea, Australia, just for fun, basically, America's democratic partners, all respond together, I think you would see real meaningful pressure on the United States in the right direction. So I would love to see Canada not standing alone. The second thing I would love, and this did happen in the first Trump administration,

• 1:16:45Speaker 05

  is Americans said to the White House, this is nuts, you have to stop doing this. You need to see American business speaking up a lot more, I would say, starting with the auto industry, that's where we build things together. I think the midterm results will be really, really important. You know, I would say Senator Grassley was someone who really had guts last time around and said to the president, you have to stop this, this is not a good idea. There need to be more Republicans who say that.

• 1:17:27Speaker 05

  And, you know, that poll that you cited, showing that Americans support Canada's counter tariffs but don't support American tariffs against Canada, what that says to me is, that would be a popular position.

• 1:17:41Ezra Klein?

  I think that is a good place to end. I always have found a question, what are three books you'd recommend to the audience?

• 1:17:47Speaker 05

  Okay, so my books are, they're two golden oldies, which I reread often, but they're almost like characters in my life. One is The Dispossessed by Ursula K. Le Guin, do you know it? So I love this book and it's so, it speaks so much to our time, actually. When you think about both the dystopian universe that it describes, but also the hope for a small, hardy band of people standing for their values. So I love that book.

• 1:18:27Speaker 05

  The second one is The Player of Games by Ian M. Banks.

• 1:18:33Ezra Klein?

  You're a sci-fi head.

• 1:18:36Speaker 05

  Oh, I totally am, I always have been. I've read sci-fi like since I started to read. And, you know, I think that is darker, but also has light and hope. And I recommend both of those books because I do think, you know, we haven't talked that much about AI, but the combination of AI and a geopolitical order, which is all smashed up, and people having questions partly because of the economy, partly because of the geopolitical order, partly because of AI, about like what it means to be human.

• 1:19:20Speaker 05

  I think that reading sci-fi is a really good way to sort of explore those issues. So anyway, those are two great books, I highly recommend. And then my third pick is Book of Lives, A Memoir of Sorts by Margaret Atwood. And it's really wonderful. She's obviously a brilliant writer. The book kind of reveals her to be a just amazing person who doesn't take herself too seriously, who is able to laugh at her own weaknesses and failings, who is not self-indulgent.

• 1:20:03Speaker 05

  And since Ezra, we've been talking about how like suddenly people are kind of interested in Canada. Her life is a really Canadian story and reading her account of parts of her life tells you a lot about Canada.

• 1:20:21Ezra Klein?

  Chris Schreeland, thank you very much.

• 1:20:24Speaker 05

  It has been wonderful.