#1553 Jordi Visser | This Is the Year Bitcoin Goes Parabolic

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we talk about bitcoin, a potential bitcoin upside collapse, global liquidity, national debt, bonds, AI, Nvidia, and is the US being quiet about bitcoin a strategic move?=======================Figure Markets is where crypto meets real-world finance. Trade 24/7 with speed and transparency, borrow against your crypto with no credit checks, and earn—all on-chain. Stocks and real estate trading are coming soon, giving you 24/7 access and instant settlement. It’s the best of TradFi and DeFi in one platform. Get started today at https://www. Figure.com/pomp! Disclosures: https://www.figuremarkets.com/disclosures/=======================Maple Finance is where real money meets real yield. With over $1.5B managed, Maple offers secure lending, Bitcoin yield, and premium DeFi assets like syrupUSDC. Get started today at https://www.maple.finance !=======================Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Created by Gavin Wood, co-founder of Ethereum, Polkadot empowers users to build decentralized applications with ease. Backed by industry leaders, making it a preferred choice for big names, Polkadot stands out as a leading choice for investors seeking a reliable, future-proof solution in the growing world of Web3 technology. Learn more at https://polkadot.com/.=======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Speaker 00

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• 0:30Speaker 01

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• 0:58Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's going on guys? Today we've got an amazing episode with Jordy Visser. His 30 years on Wall Street has prepared him for this exact moment right now. He has a couple of things that you're gonna want to hear, including remember when he told you that a Bitcoin short squeeze was gonna happen? We just broke all-time highs. Was that the short squeeze? Jordy says we haven't even started yet and

• 1:43Anthony Pompliano?

  he explains exactly what he thinks is gonna happen. On top of that, bond yields are going up. Shouldn't that be bad for certain assets? Jordy explains why actually that might be a good thing. You're not gonna hear a lot of this information anywhere else. So make sure you're paying attention and of course we talk about the national debt, AI, what's going on at the White House and much, much more. Hope you guys enjoy this conversation. Here's my latest with Jordy Visser.

• 2:04Speaker 03

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 2:28Anthony Pompliano?

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• 3:13Anthony Pompliano?

  or download their app to explore all their offers. They're currently giving away $50 to new users who deposit and trade $100. Explore crypto, loans, earning opportunities, and more with them. Go to figure.com/pomp. Today's episode is brought to you by Maple, the go-to place for on-chain asset management. There aren't many teams in crypto who manage real money the right way, but Maple does. Maple now manages over $1 billion, combining serious finance experience with DeFi innovation. I use Maple because they make it simple to earn real yield, whether that's allocating stable coins for over-collateralized lending to institutions, depositing Bitcoin to their institutional Bitcoin yield offering, or accessing their premium DeFi assets like syrup USDC. If you're serious about putting capital to work,

• 3:58Anthony Pompliano?

  then go to maple.finance to learn more. Once again, that's maple.finance. Go check them out today. Today's episode is brought to you by Polkadot. Polkadot offers secure, scalable, and decentralized blockchain technology that perfectly aligns with the needs of innovative projects. It was developed by Gavin Wood, one of the co-founders of Ethereum and the creator of Solidity. Polkadot aims to build an internet where users have full control over their data and their applications. Polkadot offers tons of unique features, a shared security model, along with a new auction model and significant implementations like ASIC banking. Given these characteristics, it's easy to understand why Polkadot is gaining more and more traction in the cryptocurrency world. Some people even are talking about it as the AWS of Web 3.

• 4:42Anthony Pompliano?

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• 5:03Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, Jordy, I thought a great place to start this conversation is, you were right. No one else is going to give you that credit. I'm going to give you that credit because you told me, you said Bitcoin, possible short squeeze, we could be starting to run here. That was two, three, four weeks ago. Bitcoin now, new all-time high, $110,000, $111,000 recently. What is happening and what is driving the price higher in your opinion right now?

• 5:23Speaker 04

  Well, first of all, this wasn't the short squeeze I'm looking for. So, we may have made new all-time highs, but I think this came from a combination of factors. The big thing that I don't think gets enough attention, we actually are moving, Vol's been going down. So, when there's a short squeeze, you're going to have a correlation between the price going higher and Vol going higher. The, the large short call option positions, which are still out there, that's keeping us from moving faster than we otherwise would. The buying, to me, is still coming from corporate adoption. It's coming from the numbers that you keep seeing about, everyone across the planet, in my opinion, is buying a little bit more because it has distanced itself from fiat assets.

• 6:06Speaker 04

  This year has been the point in time where, most of the conversations I have with people that I talk to on a regular basis, and I'm going to say this for the first time on here, the number one thing for Bitcoin to go higher and to have the short squeeze is for long-term rates to go higher. So, you're not going to see this. This is, the reason we're doing this is because I started embarking on how Bitcoin fit into the future of macro. Most macro people I talk to, this is not even a part of the conversation, neither is AI. So, from the network effects point, we've talked about it, AI is a driving factor to more volumes, more stable coin, more transactions, more tokens, everything, which will just lead to more money entering this ecosystem. But the most powerful move that I thought would take more like four years of Donald

• 6:51Speaker 04

  Trump, he's pushed everything and all the chips on to this year. I am convinced we are going to have a short squeeze, and I've talked about Bitcoin doubling this year. The distribution to me of where we could end up this year before the end of the year is starting to shift much higher. And the reason is because we haven't had the short squeeze yet, and now rates are moving higher. And rates moving higher is not bearish for Bitcoin.

• 7:13Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, let's explain this, right? So when you say rates are moving higher, just very elementary, you're talking about long rates pushing up. Why are they going up? And then what impact does that have on Bitcoin, in your opinion?

• 7:26Speaker 04

  So let's go back to the white paper. At that time, the number one reason why this was an interesting thing is not because the government was going to fall, it's because the banking system was in trouble. And the banking system is one of the three pillars of the fiat system. So if you have a situation where you've got corporates, you've got banking, and you've got government, and they're kind of all in the system, and you want to decentralize it. All right, well, the banking system is really important. So at that time, you had the equity prices of banks going down, and you had their bond prices going down with yields blowing out and spreads going because they were going to default. So that's when the beginning happened to where the government started taking the debt on their books. So

• 8:07Speaker 04

  we had 7 trillion of debt back then. Now we have 36 trillion. So it started in 2020, when Bitcoin started. In 20, or sorry, in 2009, 2008, 2007. In 2020 is when we actually gave a corporate bailout. And that corporate bailout, when we printed all that money, was, okay, now you guys can go out and you can move out, you're borrowing 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, 100 years in some cases. They move rates to zero, and corporations took their debt out. The government has short-term debt, and the long-term debt, which they don't have control over, is starting to scream the same thing that the banks screamed. That

• 8:49Speaker 04

  is the fiat system realizing at this point, we have a problem. So for everyone who wants to extrapolate tariffs mean we're going to have an equity collapse, you're ignoring the fact that, remember it was only three months ago, there's a bond put, Trump won't let rates go higher, and boom. He probably won't let them go too high because that would be a problem. So anyone who's now saying, I'm going to short bonds, bond vigilantes and go through it. That's not the macro trade. It is the pressure point because it's saying that we have a deficit problem. We have a debt problem and we just put a tax bill in which is not addressing that. So the government and Donald Trump has said, we don't care. But it's not just US debt, JGBs, gilts in the UK. All bonds around the world on the longer end are seeing pressure go higher, partly because they're in a similar situation.

• 9:34Speaker 04

  But partly what we've talked about, which is the US doesn't want to be the global reserve currency anymore. And that has, when the dollar weakens, tenure rates should go higher because if there's repatriation happening, everyone's like, we're all in this for ourselves. Let's bring the money back from the US. It has a negative side. Now, I'm going to keep going and extrapolate it a little bit further. Bill Ackman is in the press today for an interview he did at Austin. And he's attacking Harvard and saying that their book, which is heavily into something we've talked about here, long duration assets. He's specifically saying private equity, VC and real estate. The problem is as rates go higher, those assets are under pressure and AI is also hurting them as well. We don't have to go through that.

• 10:16Speaker 04

  But the problem is a good portion of the global assets are long duration assets. He just named their portfolio. I could throw in Apple, Microsoft, Google. Long duration assets or anything in technology where your multiple is at a high level and you're dependent 10 years from now from somehow earning that out in competition against AI. So the competition of AI and long rates, technology and innovation and long rates is putting pressure and Bitcoin's at all time highs with all of that going on. What I don't think people realize is what does Bitcoin have? It has liquidity. It's outside the system. Those are the two dominant factors right now. So the fact that that pressure is brewing to where Harvard is saying

• 11:00Speaker 04

  they're going to sell some of their private equity and Ackman's going, well, they do that. Everyone's got to take marks on this because the beauty is you have illiquid assets. You don't have to take mark to market. The Middle East, there was a lot of press in there about, hey, we're going to dump ours. We're not happy with not getting any cash back on these long duration assets. The pressure is growing on the bond market and the fiat system is heavily weighted in long duration assets. Now, the governments are going to not allow this to collapse. But I believe before the end of the year with rates going higher, it's more likely every day. That we're going to have capital controls. It's more likely every day that we're going to have some kind of stimulus or some kind of QE to buy long duration bonds. We're going to have some change in Fannie and Freddie.

• 11:43Speaker 04

  They're magically starting to be brought into the picture to help mortgages, allow people, maybe some second mortgages. Doesn't really matter. The dollar is weakening. The whole system is kind of fracturing. The macro trade is not to short stocks on this. It's not to fade that governments won't figure something out. It's to realize that everyone's going to be looking for assets outside the system. That's gold. That's Bitcoin. That's how it all lines up. The only part I left out is I am still convinced with inside Bitcoin and watching the way the option market trades and the way that the futures trade at such a premium to spot that there is going to be a squeeze where someone who keeps selling Bitcoin higher is going to get caught in this whole thing. And we're going to see a week where it's up 10, 20, 30,000 in a week.

• 12:28Speaker 04

  And that's the interesting part about Bitcoin. We always worry about stocks collapsing. Ever since 1987, there's been a change in the option market. I think there's going to be an upside collapse in Bitcoin at some point this year.

• 12:40Anthony Pompliano?

  When you say upside collapse, explain how that works and then who gets caught, right? Because it's a very interesting thing of normally when there's leverage, when there's issues, people who are long an asset and it goes up, they're good. They're betting on it to go up. If it goes against them and it goes down, then you get a bunch of collapses and issues and bankruptcies, whatever. You're saying kind of the opposite here, that actually there may be pain in the Bitcoin market as Bitcoin's price goes up.

• 13:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, and that's the part. I think the selling, everyone kind of looks, there's been a lot of buying. You can see sellers buying, but who's selling? So the option market continues to say that it would be people selling to get yield on one side. So if you can get, and I've talked about it before, I mean, 30% out of the money Bitcoin for out to September, you can get a yield of like 3% to 4%. In the market, it's called selling volatility and PIMCO was known for it a lot. They would sell strangles around the bond yield to get an enhanced yield. So in Bitcoin, there's a lot of people that have been selling upside. To monetize some yield. At the same point, you know this as I do, a lot of people don't sell their Bitcoin ever.

• 13:48Speaker 04

  So there's people that have a lot of net worth that have been created by owning stuff since 2010, 2012. And it's not just in the US, it's a global asset. So when people think about it, I think they think that the wealth is here. I think it's spread all over the globe. And Asians in particular love yield enhancement strategies as well. So I think the problem is going to be that people have probably sold upside volatility in much bigger size than people realize. And if they get called on this, and I use the reference point nickel, that was a production. So in Bitcoin, it would be a miner if it was a similar thing. And so a miner anywhere around the globe that's been selling against their future production could be in a situation where they've sold options and we've gone through the strikes. And now they have to turn around and start buying.

• 14:32Speaker 04

  And the one thing I always remember about Bitcoin, the way GameStop traded, where you had that short squeeze. I envision a very similar thing in Bitcoin and in a lot of parts of the market. That if the pressure starts and you see someone turn around and need to buy, I just don't know who's going to be the seller at that point. My question will be at some point this year, who is the seller in the middle of one of these squeezes? Very similar to when we have a put the other way. And this is the beauty of Bitcoin, there is a finite amount, so it is a scarce thing. And if it's going up and you have a lot of people holding that never sell, at some point you sold too much on lending and you've created too much leverage, it'll create a squeeze.

• 15:09Anthony Pompliano?

  And so when that happens, to me, there's a lot of market structure stuff you're talking about. I always think about Bitcoin is unique because there's a supercharged megaphone attached to it. I mean Bitcoin goes up a thousand dollars, people yell on screen. Bitcoin goes up another thousand dollars, people be yelling, right? It dominates the media headlines. Like it almost feels like all of these others, you know, the nickel market does not have like nickel maxis who are yelling and screaming when nickel goes up or there's a short squeeze. People may, you know, oh, I see what happened there. They may write about it in a, you know, kind of a traditional research report. Maybe it gets mentioned on TV. If Bitcoin has a short squeeze. And you don't like Bitcoin, put earplugs in, get off the internet because there is going

• 15:53Anthony Pompliano?

  to be victory laps all over the place, right? Now, there are very real risks to this, like, it does feel like it's a perpetual kind of reinforcing cycle is once the price starts to move, you then get the like megaphone going. And that's coming now, not just from hardcore Bitcoiners. Like, you know, I lovingly say that Larry Fink is the CMO of Bitcoin. If he goes on TV and he says something positive, the messenger matters way more than the message.

• 16:16Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 16:17Anthony Pompliano?

  If you have Wall Street and the Bitcoiners working together to say Bitcoin's the thing, Bitcoin's the trade, and it's moving and proving them right. I mean, have we ever seen an asset that would get that much attention?

• 16:29Speaker 04

  And so you just hit on a critical thing. Whenever, whenever people try to value something, so like, one of the best performing assets since, since the end of March, so before Liberation Day, is Fartcoin. Okay? So I bring this up.

• 16:44Anthony Pompliano?

  Makes sense.

• 16:45Speaker 04

  Yeah, it makes perfect sense. Logical sense. There's a fundamental reason for it and everything else. There's no narrative for Fartcoin. It's just, it's going higher.

• 16:53Anthony Pompliano?

  It's funny.

• 16:54Speaker 04

  People are making money on it. For, for Bitcoin, everything that I talked about for that introduction of five, 10 minutes, that's the narrative to me that will come out. The fiat system is breaking down in front of our eyes. It's not allowed to completely break. It's just showing that it's looking for a change. At the same time, AI is accelerating. There was an interview with CZ this week that I listened to, and I found it interesting. Smart guy, I'm sure you've, you've interviewed him before. But he, he made a specific statement that we've talked about, which is AI and AI agents

• 17:34Speaker 04

  are changing the global economy, and they're accelerating the need for the ecosystem of stable coins. And even admitted, he got one thing wrong, and I like to see people that are visionaries in the space that were in very early, and I like to find out what they got wrong. It's stable coins. And so stable coins value for the ecosystem and its value just continues to grow. And so I Think the narrative is shaping this year, the stablecoin bill. You could look back at the end of this year and if Bitcoin was 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, you look back. There is a narrative that you could say, oh, fundamentally, this makes sense, but your point?

• 18:12Speaker 04

  I completely agree. This will be a megaphone situation where all of the people that have been saying this is the thing to have. Not gold. Gold's up now 28% year to date. Bitcoin's up 18% year to date. Remember when it was? Gold was up, Bitcoin was down, the real acceleration.

• 18:29Anthony Pompliano?

  It also, if you remember. A month ago, two months ago, there was two things that the Bitcoiners were yelling and screaming about. We talked about on this show I've done. At this point, it feels like tens of videos about. Bitcoin will follow global liquidity. Bitcoin will follow gold. So global liquidity was up and you could see Bitcoin had not yet run. Gold's price had run. You could see Bitcoin had not run and people were saying between 100 to 150 days after gold runs that Bitcoin historically has run as well. We're starting to hit that time period, right? And so again, you can't always look at history. But damn, is it a pretty good guide in terms of what to expect. And so we now feel like as we saw those two things happen.

• 19:10Anthony Pompliano?

  You have kind of Bitcoin going. The other thing that I think has changed from a narrative perspective is. I was pretty bullish on Doge being able to cut into spending. Just the lack of uh maybe fiscal responsibility is definitely there. Elon Musk, he's pretty good at cutting out costs, right? He put together a great team, all that stuff. I believe that they had a sports car that was going down the highway at 100 miles an hour and they were going to do everything that they said they were going to do. And they ran into the wall of bureaucracy and media. Who frankly fought them tooth and nail at every single thing and prevented them from making any sort of material changes that are actually needed. Not because the changes aren't there to be made, but because basically they got fought. And so I think that now you see Besen.

• 19:56Anthony Pompliano?

  He verbally is waving the white flag. I don't hear about balanced budgets this much anymore. I don't hear about yields coming down. What I hear is we're going to grow our way out, which I put grow our way out into the finance vernacular translator as we're printing, debt's going to explode, inflation may come back, let's play ball, asset prices are going to go up. Is that how you read kind of situation?

• 20:19Speaker 04

  Yeah, so the dollar's weakening, which is a part of this equation that has helped the situation that I think has enabled them to choose the debasement path. So I think they wanted, you know what, I don't even want to say wanted. Every single time, the one common thread you hear with Donald Trump, and if you if you look at what Ackman said, I believe he collects information from everyone. And so he may not know all the specifics about every point, but there's so many different levers that can be pulled to deal with the situation. It doesn't have to be get the deficit down in four years. It could be let's try to get it down in four years, but let's do it a different way. So I think that they

• 21:03Speaker 04

  realized and they they changed. But the other thing, and this is again why it gets back into Bitcoin, it's the bond yield. It's the fact that, so I'm a student of markets. If you go back to 1984, and you go back to when 10 year yields were above 10%. And if you look at a long term chart of bond yields from 1984 until 2022, it is a ski slope that is just very linear. Charts don't look like that over time. We kept making lower lows and lower highs continuously. So the reason that that was necessary is because every time that we had a recession, we had to move rates lower, and the corporations

• 21:46Speaker 04

  moved their debt. So it's kind of like, okay, we've borrowed at 4%. Okay, now we borrowed a 3%. Okay, now we borrowed a 2%. Okay, and finally you got to 2020, every corporate moved out. And at that point, we had We had the the technology companies which have no debt, the big ones, and everything changed. And now the 10-year yield didn't matter for the private sector as much. It now matters for the government side. So if you go back to where we were in January, and you think about everything that's played out, when we had the peak in Bitcoin, the number one narrative was that we're going to get a Bitcoin reserve. You don't hear anything about a strategic Bitcoin reserve now. We've gone back to the all-time highs, not because of speculation on the Bitcoin reserve. We've gone there because 10-year yields are now higher, and that ski slope that was down forever,

• 22:31Speaker 04

  we're at the highest level, and we're about to be at the highest level in about 15 years since 2007, 2008, which means the entire fiat system has finally changed officially. And this is the time where Bitcoin should go through a parabolic move, in my opinion.

• 22:46Anthony Pompliano?

  The only thing I'll say about the strategic Bitcoin reserve is, uh, maybe not talking about it at the moment is strategic.

• 22:53Speaker 04

  I agree.

• 22:54Anthony Pompliano?

  And, uh, I think they will start talking about it again this year.

• 22:58Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 22:58Anthony Pompliano?

  Um, we'll see what happens, but the people that are there, I think they have said what they're gonna do. Um, I have a lot of faith that they're gonna do what they said.

• 23:11Speaker 04

  So I I brought it up to say more that for people who are fading this, you've been able to get to all-time highs without speculation over it. No one's buying today because that's coming.

• 23:22Anthony Pompliano?

  Mm-hmm.

• 23:23Speaker 04

  I believe with the sovereign wealth fund, I believe the things that I've talked about about bit bonds, different ways, these systems are gonna merge without any doubt in my mind. So that's the way to say it, is if the US did do a strategic Bitcoin reserve, by the end of the year, it has to be much higher than it is today. Because the systems have officially merged. If we issue a bond that has an attachment to Bitcoin, where we're then using those funds to buy Bitcoin, I happen to believe they are gonna do something. They said, let's get through the stablecoin, that's the first part. Let's get through the genius act, let's get through, okay, well, we're getting through that now. So the second half of the year, there should be something along those lines. I agree with you.

• 24:02Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, I think it's gonna be very, uh, very interesting. Let's see what happens. Um, another thing is, uh, we've got Nvidia earnings coming. We've got, um, a lot of people speculating about what's going on, actually, in AI. You talked about the long-duration assets. What is your expectation from Nvidia, and does it matter as much as it used to matter? Which, I mean Nvidia, I mean, you might as well had a party every time they were doing earnings, you know, last year.

• 24:25Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 24:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Does it really matter as much now?

• 24:28Speaker 04

  Uh, so Nvidia is the same price as it was a year ago, like almost exactly. Uh, and yet their earnings have gone much higher. So one thing that's happened is the multiples have contracted. I don't think it matters from the perspective of people violently jumping in, but in just talking with macro people on a weekly basis, there's still a belief that AI is number one overhyped. Um, which is, is shocking to me. Uh, two podcasts that I listened to this week, if people want to go just hear how fast things are moving. Eric Schmidt finally released a TED Talk that he, he, he was on. It's great.

• 25:10Speaker 04

  And again, he just emphasizes so many things in there, including the power thing we've talked about. And then Sergey Brin was interviewed by the All In Podcast. Whenever you can hear Sergey Brin at, at Google, I think it's great because he, I mean, he, he doesn't work for the company, but he is working at the company right now and coding.

• 25:27Anthony Pompliano?

  He is the company.

• 25:28Speaker 04

  He is the company for sure. But to hear him speak about this being the most amazing time in the history of computer science and how he literally got back in the company because he didn't want to miss the insane moves that are happening. So Nvidia itself, I think, is important as the final,

• 25:49Speaker 04

  the final short covering rally. I think that's the one, that thing and rates are the two places where right now I can hear macro people are, are, are going through. But the rate situation I think is going to be fine for the near term because I think it's going to be related to growth coming back more than what people expected.

• 26:05Speaker 04

  I'm going to do something for 22V this week or next week on Disney and I'm, I'm going to segue a little bit from, from Nvidia into Disney so people can, can get a grasp of the importance of AI for investors right now. Disney's a company whose revenue per employee is growing rapidly and it's growing rapidly because AI is not a technology. It is more like the internet or electricity. It's it's a macro theme that I don't think macro people spend any time on. I don't think they have the time to do it. I don't think it's their expertise. That's why I sit here with you every week and I do not go back to that world is that I'm using it every day and I'm seeing it. I think what people are going to start to realize is the profit margins in the S and P 500 are going to continue to remain high.

• 26:50Speaker 04

  Nvidia is kind of the last thing of Q1 to actually see what it was. All of the mag seven. I mean, I think their year over year numbers are up 28%. The S and P 500 is nine. X them. So this is still an AI story and I think Nvidia matters a lot mainly because the sentiment is so negative right now.

• 27:10Anthony Pompliano?

  What is the impact of the AI stuff on the national debt?

• 27:14Speaker 04

  So I I did write something this week on how from the debt and deficit perspective, people have to start putting in what exponential innovation means. So we hear the word AGI all the time. Well, with AGI comes a lot of things.

• 27:35Speaker 04

  Medicare and Medicaid, I think health and human services is like $2 trillion of our spending, which means the health of people, if people could live longer. Ray Kurzweil is redoing his human beings will be immortal by 2030. I mean, you have to listen. I mean, the guy has had a lot of predictions that have been right. And the reason he's saying it is the embodiment of inference. So we've talked about inference. I wrote something on it last week. The embodiment is about nanobots. So nanobots in your body that are killing off whatever things are entering your mind. He's saying that will be a possibility by 2030. Whether we have enough power for it, battery is small enough, all these things, it's going to take longer.

• 28:17Speaker 04

  But his point was it will be doable at that point. So the entitlement thing is a big portion of this AI makes is is a productivity gain. It will help in healthcare. It will help us find diseases early. And if you can find things early, then people can be healthier later. I do think the health of human beings will be in an exponential move. And if $2 trillion of our dollars in spending is there, it will have an impact on the deficit for sure.

• 28:42Anthony Pompliano?

  And given that the spending bill, the big beautiful bill, which obviously is maybe not what people were looking for when it came to cutting spending, are they counting on things like AI to be on the other side of that equation and kind of, you know, help on some of this stuff? It just feels like if you are in a silo and you create a bill like this, you gotta be counting on something else, right? Like, and I don't know, I'm not in the room. No one has told me what they're counting on, but it just feels like that's a grenade you're throwing in the room. And maybe you're just like, screw it. Hey, we know that there's gonna be collateral damage and we think that's the right thing to do.

• 29:23Anthony Pompliano?

  I would probably disagree with throwing the grenade, but maybe that is the plan. But could AI be like this? And then you're just like, oh, this is so deflationary, we can do this. And then it all kind of like net out.

• 29:35Speaker 04

  So I think over the long term, it will have a large impact, but I don't think that's inside the White House's thought process. And this, no matter how many smart people they have in there, when you have a situation where you're in kind of a death spiral with debt, meaning, okay, we have debt to GDP of 120% and we have seven, eight trillion more debt to bring to the market this year. And we've got a deficit of $2 trillion, of which we're not going to make a major dent in it this year. I, I think they're doing the kick the can down the road game and trying to restructure the trade and figure out some way to monetize stuff. That's why at the end of the day, we're, we're foreigners on 20,

• 30:19Speaker 04

  net $26 trillion of our assets. So when I say capital controls, I think capital controls are an option that will be brought up. It's been brought up by senators before.

• 30:31Anthony Pompliano?

  What exactly would they entail? Because capital controls could be like hardcore CCP, like, you know, you may disappear if you do something, or it could be more like, we're going to disincentivize you through various tools to not take the money out of the United States.

• 30:44Speaker 04

  So just, I mean, you just said something important. Part of the reason the fiat system doesn't work is because China does have capital controls and they're pegged to our currency. So.

• 30:57Speaker 04

  The two biggest economies in the world have one currency effectively and they've got capital controls and we don't. So we just let anyone come and invest. This would be more, and again, this has been different ways it's been talked about. So I'm just saying they will find a way to do this. Could be restructuring of the debt out to 100 years for a century bond. Or it could be that when you sell the assets, there's a 50 basis point tax on taking your money back to the country. If they announce this, the dollar would go down 15, 20%. But I think the reason the dollar is going down, in fact, if you go back to liberation day and then you go forward to the bottom in equities, a lot of times the great thing about markets are,

• 31:37Speaker 04

  you look at what's still working. So gold peaked at the bottom there. The dollar is getting very close to the lows. There hasn't been a balance in the dollar. It lasted for about a week. Stocks are still sitting near the highs of the move. Yes, they're down this week and they've given back a little bit, but it hasn't been a big move and rates are back up to the upper end. So if you ask me, weaker bonds and a weaker dollar are the structural things. And I think before this goes too far, there is a benefit that happens with a weaker dollar. The US is getting, I mean, think about Netflix or any of these service-based countries. So we only focus on the good side. Most of the exports we have are services. So let's just use Netflix. If Netflix

• 32:20Speaker 04

  is charging someone a certain amount of euros and they're bringing this in, they're getting more dollars for the euros today. So you're just kind of going through this in terms of, okay, we have a weakening currency. That means it's good for exports. It's good for the manufacturing side, but we don't manufacture much, but we do export services. So the benefit that comes there that kind of evens it out. The capital controls to me are going to be a discussion to help with the deficit and the debt. I just don't think it's going to be received well by the market, but that's why Bitcoin should have another leg to it.

• 32:50Anthony Pompliano?

  What's the bear case for Bitcoin right now?

• 32:55Speaker 04

  I mean, at this particular point, I would say somehow that rates go down and that stocks are comparable asset. The big thing with Bitcoin this year is there's not a lot of assets that are working. So if Bitcoin has been called by most people a risk asset, and it's under owned, the risk assets are not doing well, the ones that people own. So I think it would be the dollar just resumes its global reserve currency status. The probability of that to me is I just can't come up with a scenario that it happens. That would stop Bitcoin from having a parabolic move. I have viewed Bitcoin until this year as a simple rotation from fiat assets into other assets. So if you ask me, what's the most powerful thing? If if people can't buy another asset that's working as well as

• 33:40Speaker 04

  it, and their portfolio is flat because they own too much mega cap tech, which is what's happening this year. Wait, I want to buy something that's working. How much is Bitcoin up this year? It's up 19? I'm flat over here. They haven't had that problem before because the mags have been coming. That's one. Second thing would be if all of a sudden liquidity picks up in private equity and venture capital doing well. Another comparable thing. Well, the problem is, as we're seeing with Harvard as like a microcosm, Harvard is a major story for Bitcoin, in my opinion. It's places that have gone into illiquid assets to generate returns. Bitcoin's generating returns, and it is the most liquid asset if you include the fact that it trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week. So I think people are looking

• 34:23Speaker 04

  for liquidity. I think they're looking for innovation related risk assets that are still working. I don't think Americans and high net worth are going to go more into Europe and Japan and every place else in the world as their portfolio. I think Bitcoin just goes from a 1% weighting for traditional investments to two to three to four to five. And when you throw in the fact that corporations are really desperate and are doing more of the treasury activity and it's working, I the bare scenario I come up with is that the dollar rallies and the fiat system gets new legs. I just don't see that happening. I think Trump basically drew a match down and you can't you can't roll back what happened.

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• 35:59Anthony Pompliano?

  Is there a world where the United States has to nationalize Coinbase, strategy, miners, something to start trying to get more Bitcoin on this balance sheet for some sort of strategic purpose?

• 36:19Speaker 04

  I don't think so. Here, so if we didn't have as much gold as we have, and this is the thing, so the logic I've used is that Bitcoin, for the most part, will remain a private sector, non-fiat instrument. And for countries, gold will remain the predominant one. I think it's really hard to imagine, like you said, if they come out and say, "We're gonna go buy Bitcoin", who's gonna sell it anymore if the US government's gonna buy it? So I've kind of come to the conclusion that the right way to do this is actually through structured products and re-changing kind of the capital structure, using gold as kind of one of the pieces.

• 37:03Speaker 04

  So I think that's why gold and Bitcoin are moving together. View them as, one is the private sector embracing Bitcoin. The other is the public sector, which has a hard time embracing Bitcoin and because of... Democracy and everything else and gold ends up being the choice for the public side. And that we really never get to the point where we need to nationalize that. I do think AI, people underestimate how AI is going to change this whole situation with debt, with expenses and everything. AI is a neutralizing force to me. It's just it can't happen in the next four years. It's more of a 15, 20, 30 year story. But when you can envision robots working, walking down the street, humanoids, you know, 15 years from now, when you're actually getting used to that.

• 37:48Speaker 04

  Of course, at that point, I think the debt and the deficit has become kind of ridiculous, in my opinion.

• 37:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, it is. Um, it's fascinating to kind of watch all this because I also think that

• 37:59Anthony Pompliano?

  the stories in the media have been very counter accurate. Maybe it's the best way to put it.

• 38:07Anthony Pompliano?

  They theoretically make sense. Like if you go and talk to a bunch of academic professors and they tell you, you're like, oh, this sounds smart. But they've been wrong. Retail seems to have one mode now. I see dip, I buy dip.

• 38:23Anthony Pompliano?

  It actually is pretty logical, though. Institutions haven't gotten the message yet, which is surprising to me. Why do you think that is?

• 38:31Speaker 04

  Number one, using outdated models and having.

• 38:38Speaker 04

  I wrote a Substack yesterday. It was on my favorite book and the one that had the biggest impact in my life back in 2009. So right around the time that the white paper came out, before I even believed as Bitcoin is something. I read a book called The Art of Learning by Josh Waitzky.

• 38:53Anthony Pompliano?

  Great book.

• 38:54Speaker 04

  A great book and has had a, I've read it multiple times and I will not say that about many books. But it forced me to think about how do I learn something new? Because at the time, people called me Dr. Doom and Gloom. I traded emerging markets. I only saw bear markets. I came back to the US in 99, just before the dot com bubble. I made a lot of money during 2007, 2008, 2009, believing that banks were going out of business. So I think being able to adjust to these times is very difficult. But in particular, it gets back to the long duration asset side. Everyone does this game of extrapolation. What retail seems to know, which the more, the more information you have right now. Oh my God, rates are going higher, means equities are going to collapse.

• 39:39Speaker 04

  Home buyers aren't going to be able to buy homes and they go down this extrapolation. And retail just goes, oh, rates are going high. The government has to do stimulus. And so this is a good time to buy. And I just think they don't have the history books in their mind. I think they've just seen, well, all my data points say that when we get pressure points on the government and the front page says that the Liz trust moment is happening. And it's what we are right now. And then everyone should go back, everyone go look at what happened when the Liz trust moment was on the front page of the paper. Every macro guy will tell you this was the time you wanted to be bearish. Go, hey, what happened to the FTSE, the stock market in the UK? We haven't been lower at all. We've gone straight up since the Liz trust moment. So yes, it fell for a little while, just like the tariffs.

• 40:23Speaker 04

  But right now the tariffs are in the rearview mirror as a low. So if you get worried at liberation day and you didn't buy two days later, like retail did, you're screwed. And I think macro people, they overthink this thing at this point. And I think they're looking and depending too more on the fiat system and the way it worked out. When the reality is this is about something else. The governments have a printing press. This is not about banks going out of business or corporations. This is the government that can print money whenever they want. And the downside is the deficits and the debt never get better. And that's why Bitcoin rises at the same time.

• 40:53Anthony Pompliano?

  So I think there's two things that are counterintuitive and paradoxical, but they're both true. Younger generation, whatever age, whatever. It reminds me a lot of Stanley Druckenmiller said, I forget where he was working. He was the head of research and he gets called into his boss's, I think his boss's boss's office. And they say, all right, Stan, he's like 28 and there's a bunch of older guys there who all are trading, whatever, and they say, It's your time. You're gonna run the, you know, you're gonna run the book. And he's like, what are you talking about? Like, all these guys have more experience than me, but why am I gonna do it? And his boss has some version to him of, uh, do you know why they say they send young men to fight wars? Cause basically they're too dumb to realize how risky it is, right?

• 41:38Anthony Pompliano?

  And he says, uh, all those guys out there on the trading floor, they all lived through the bear market. They're gonna be gun shy, but right now is the time to be hyper aggressive. And basically you're too stupid to know not to be hyper aggressive, right? So, you know, paraphrase story, but, but pretty good. I think that's a lot of folks that that is one true thing about this younger generation is they didn't live through investing in 99. Many of them probably were coming of age in oh, seven, oh, eight, oh, nine, right? They saw it, but they weren't materially exposed to the market. There's all these different things. The second thing that is also true is they are not complete amateurs because they've lived through more boom and bust cycles in crypto than they would have in the public markets. So it's this weird dynamic where on one hand,

• 42:21Anthony Pompliano?

  you don't have enough experience to actually be scared, believe the models, you know, understand the academic theories, all that kind of stuff. But on the other hand, you're kind of like that guy who, you know, you see the meme of him smoking a cigarette. He's dirty. He's like, you know, at the end of the war and he's just like, whatever, right? Yep. And if stocks go down 10%, I literally went on television on Bloomberg and I got a little note afterwards from somebody and they said, I can't believe you said that. And yeah, I think stocks were down like 5% at one point. I think Bitcoin's down like 15%. I said, this is a drawdown for ants, right? Bitcoin, you know, 30% is kind of what you would expect with stocks. Uh, you 5%, who they kind of, who cares, right? Like that can happen one day in crypto and, um,

• 43:05Anthony Pompliano?

  but I think that's the mentality, right? It's like when you see something that's an 80, 100 ball asset. And then you go into the traditional markets, you see this like little, small, tiny, you know, ant-like moves. You're kind of like, what? You guys are worried the stock went down 5% like buy, right? Like it's not like S and P is gonna go down 50%. And so it's a weird dynamic because you're like, on one hand, that there's the lack of experience and knowledge actually is a benefit. On the other hand, they're very experienced with high volatility, big drawdowns, like, you know, essentially extreme risk-taking. You put those two things together and you're like, purpose-built for a chaotic, uncertain, you know, macro environment like we have right now.

• 43:44Speaker 04

  Well, let me, so I got into markets and the two people that I read in Market Wizards before I was managing money and before I was a derivative trader, the two people that grabbed me were Stan Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones. And luckily, over time, I've had the ability to know both of them, to be on the other side of the phone with them, to sit with them. Stan also says something all the time, and it was reminded to me yesterday to breakfast, which is, at the end of something he'll say, he goes, "But what do I know?" It's the humbling side. It's the side that the market will always win. Your job is not to be right, it's to make

• 44:25Speaker 04

  money. I think retail understands that far more than most educated people. Educated people are looking for the reason. That's why they don't understand Fartcoin. There is no story for it. Bitcoin, there's no intrinsic value for it. I think people in the crypto world and younger people, they're not migrating to what the story is before they buy it. They're looking at the price. The reason I said Paul and Stan had an impact on me, I immediately went out because they both said one thing in that book that was a Venn diagram, which was, "I love Elliott Wave theory." Okay, Elliott Wave theory has nothing to do with a story. You first look at the chart. I don't trade anything, buy anything, without having

• 45:09Speaker 04

  a view on the Elliott Wave pattern at all. I don't want to buy something at 52-week lows unless I think it's the end of a move and there's exhaustion. And I'll buy anything that's that people hate because contrarian gives you better upside. But I want the pattern to make sense and then I'm looking for something. Right now, I want to buy Brazil. Nobody wants to buy Brazil. Their deficit's worse than ours. So people don't like it, but I like it because their bonds are going up, their stocks are going up, and their currency's going up, and their currency's at the weakest level since when I lived there. So Stan and Paul, in particular, I think they have a lot more retail, modern-day retail in them than the people who give all these reasons for stuff. They'll go look for a reason, but if you go read about when Stan bought...

• 45:53Speaker 04

  Argentina and the ADRs after he heard Malay speak. He's like, I'm gonna go buy stuff first and then I'll go do the work. The Elliott Wave pattern will lead there. I think retail is just much quicker and much more flexible in their mindset. They'll buy stuff, they'll get out of stuff. But I think knowing the story in a world of exponential moves. By the time, and I wrote this in there, it's like being on a car going 200 miles an hour as opposed to being on a bike. When you're on a bike, you're seeing everything. You're creating a story by looking. When you're going in a car 200 miles an hour, you can't see anything to create the story. By the time you create the story, you're now five miles ahead. I think retail is just very, very good at realizing, I don't know anything. I'm just here to make money.

• 46:32Anthony Pompliano?

  I think that that's exactly what they're doing and, uh, and it's working. And, uh, a lot of them are running laps around hedge funds and, you know, all this stuff. And, um, as they make more money, they become more confident in themselves, which is dangerous.

• 46:44Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 46:44Anthony Pompliano?

  But also sometimes you're just confident in being stupid and that can be a very good strategy.

• 46:49Speaker 04

  Yeah, always remember too, when volatility has been as wide as it has where the equity market can fall 20% and then go up 20%. The other thing that professional managers have is they have some kind of a loss level they have to protect on some kind of random time period. It could be a month, it could be a random, if you drop 3%, you're fired. This is why the market ends up in this situation. So volatility expands, but the, the liquidity terms don't expand, meaning, okay. Every month we're measuring your performance. Every 3% we're measuring your performance. So if we get in a world where Donald Trump's just like, oh, tariffs are back on in Europe, 50%. Okay, Apple, you have to make all your phones here. Oh, stock market falls, then all the people that just covered their shorts are now going

• 47:34Speaker 04

  to be screwed. And so I think when you get in this position, retail doesn't have anyone managing their stuff. They're just like, yeah, you know what? I lost money and I'm gonna go back outside and go, go hang out. I'm not gonna do this. Hedge fund managers, they have to still perform or they get fired.

• 47:47Anthony Pompliano?

  Where can we send people to get all your information, everything you're putting out?

• 47:51Speaker 04

  Uh, Visser Labs on X, on Substack, on YouTube. The videos are all there. And then 22V, I think it's securities.com now. They can read, where I get a little bit more specific with things like Disney, Brazil, uh, and the markets in general, but they can find me anywhere.

• 48:10Anthony Pompliano?

  Amazing. Thank you so much for doing this and do it again in the future.

• 48:12Speaker 04

  Thanks, Anthony.

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