#686 Bitcoin Could Go To $5 Million w/ Plan B

Plan B is one of the most notorious Bitcoin investors in the world. He has amassed a loyal and engaged following on Twitter. Plan B also invented the stock-to-flow model that is widely cited throughout the Bitcoin community. In this conversation, we discuss bitcoin, the stock-to-flow model, price targets, gold, macro economics, and external tailwinds. ======================= My friends at Coin Cloud will give you $50 in FREE Bitcoin when you buy $200 or more at any of their 4,000+ machines. Use promo code POMP to get your free Bitcoin. For details or to find your nearest Coin Cloud machine, visit www. Coin. Cloud/Pomp Coin Cloud has been serving customers since 2014 and has established itself as the world's leading digital currency machine (DCM) operator. More than just a Bitcoin ATM, Coin Cloud machines make it easy to buy and sell Bitcoin and 30+ other digital assets with cash. To get your $50 in free Bitcoin, visit www. Coin. Cloud/Pomp ======================= Compass Mining is the world's first online marketplace for bitcoin mining hardware and hosting. Compass was founded with the goal of making it easy for everyone to mine bitcoin. Visit compassmining.io to start mining bitcoin today! ======================= AG1 by Athletic Greens, the category-leading superfood product, brings comprehensive and convenient daily nutrition to everybody. Keeping up with the research, knowing what to do, and taking a bunch of pills and capsules is hard on the stomach and hard to keep up with. To help each of us be at our best, they simplify the path to better nutrition by giving you the one thing with all the best things. ONE scoop of AG1 contains 75 vitamins, minerals and whole food-sourced ingredients, including a multivitamin, multimineral, probiotic, greens superfood blend and more in one convenient daily serving. The special blend of high-quality, bioavailable ingredients in a scoop of AG1 work together to fill the nutritional gaps in your diet, support energy and focus, aid with gut health and digestion, and support a healthy immune system, - effectively replacing multiple products or pills with one healthy, delicious drink. To make it easy, Athletic Greens is going to give you an immune supporting FREE 1 year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 free travel packs with your first purchase if you visit athleticgreens.com/pomp today. Again, simply visit athleticgreens.com/pomp to take control of your health and give AG1 a try. =======================

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Plan B is one of the most notorious Bitcoin investors in the world. He has amassed a loyal and engaged following on Twitter. Plan B also invented the stock to flow model that is widely cited throughout the Bitcoin community. In this conversation, we discuss Bitcoin, the stock to flow model, price targets, gold, macroeconomics, and external tailwinds. This exact conversation was deleted from YouTube and they deleted our entire YouTube channel yesterday because they deemed it to be too "dangerous." While I would be laughing, it did get censored on YouTube. So make sure you tune in and share this with all of your

• 0:45Anthony Pompliano?

  friends. Before we get into this episode, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up is CoinCloud. Did you know you can buy and sell crypto with cash? I want to introduce you to my friends at CoinCloud, more than just a Bitcoin ATM company. CoinCloud is the world's leading digital currency machine operator. They've been around since 2014 and have thousands of machines across the country. You can buy and sell Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Cardano, and over 30 other digital assets. No connecting bank accounts, no long waits, and if you have questions, you can speak to a live US-based customer support rep 24/7. I've had a lot of Bitcoin ATM companies reach out, but CoinCloud is the only team I've found that does things, right? They put together a special offer for listeners of the show.

• 1:26Anthony Pompliano?

  You can get $50 in free Bitcoin when you buy $200 or more at any CoinCloud machine and use the promo code POMP. For details, go to coin.clored/pomp. Again, coin.clored/pomp and use promo code POMP. You get $50 in free Bitcoin when you buy $200 or more at any CoinCloud machine. Next up is Compass Mining. This episode is explicitly sponsored by Compass Mining, the world's largest marketplace for mining hardware and hosting. With Compass, everyone can mine Bitcoin. Their team makes it easy to start mining wherever you want, at home or in one of their 23 hosting facilities around the world. Through the Compass marketplace, retail miners can access mining hardware with similar prices and

• 2:10Anthony Pompliano?

  Plans is the world's largest mining companies. Compass miners all their own machines. They choose whatever mining pool they want and they mine directly to their own wallet. Miners who don't want to host their machines can order ASICS directly to their doorstep. Simple and low cost hosting agreements coupled with best in class customer service are the reasons why Compass is the simplest and most popular way to mine Bitcoin. Start mining your own Bitcoin by visiting compassmining.io today. Compassmining.io today. Next up is Athletic Greens. AG1 by Athletic Greens, the category leading superfood product brings comprehensive and convenient daily nutrition to everybody.

• 2:51Anthony Pompliano?

  Keeping up with the research, knowing what to do and taking a bunch of pills and capsules is hard on the stomach and hard to keep up with. To help each of us be at our best, they simplify the path to better nutrition by giving you the one thing with all of the best things. One scoop of AG1 contains 75 vitamins, minerals and whole food sourced ingredients, including a multivitamin, multi mineral, probiotic, green superfood blend and more in one convenient daily serving. The special blend of high quality bioavailable ingredients in a scoop of AG1 work together to fill the nutritional gaps in your diet, support energy and focus, aid with gut health and digestion and support a healthy immune system, effectively replacing multiple products or pills with one healthy delicious drink.

• 3:35Anthony Pompliano?

  To make it easy, Athletic Greens is going to give you an immune supporting free one year supply of vitamin D and five free travel packs with your first purchase if you visit athleticgreens.com/pomp today. Again, simply visit athleticgreens.com/pomp to take control of your health and give AG1 a try. Athleticgreens.com/pomp. All right, let's get into episode of Plan B. I hope you guys enjoy this one.

• 4:00Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 4:23Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, first I want to start.

• 4:24Anthony Pompliano?

  With a stock to flow model, you're the creator of this. And most people point to it as kind of the single guiding light to them in terms of the relationship of Bitcoins price to these halving cycles. So talk us through a little bit about what the stock to flow model is and then what it's showing us so far.

• 4:43Speaker 03

  Yeah, so the stock to flow ratio is a ratio from the commodities market, actually, that that tells you something about an asset scarcity. It divides the stock, the reserves of a certain asset by the flow, the newly issued Bitcoins or gold, newly mined gold. And if you divide the stock by the flow, you get the stock to flow ratio. So that ratio was known for ages in the commodities market. What I did was connect that with the market value of, well, Bitcoin in the beginning, but later also the other assets like silver and diamonds and gold and real estate. And what you find that there is a perfect linear relationship in the logarithmic space.

• 5:28Speaker 03

  So that was quite shocking. And with that, you can, you can actually predict the price of Bitcoin very roughly, I should say, but you can do it. And because we know the stock to flow ratio of Bitcoin, it's pre-programmed. And that's, yeah, that's a very nice thing. And it's of course very bullish at the moment. It predicts somewhere around $100,000 Bitcoin for the current halving cycle, which is 2020, 2024. So we're actually heading towards that. Yeah, it's, it's that.

• 6:04Anthony Pompliano?

  So when you think of the stock to flow ratio, one of the things that I'm fascinated by is it comes from the commodities market, but it's actually potentially more accurate when it comes to Bitcoin, because we know with certainty and can prove the supply of both the outstanding supply and the daily incoming supply. Describe a little bit about why that certainty and that that verfability is so important to the accuracy of a model like this.

• 6:28Speaker 03

  Yeah, so for example, with gold, we don't know how much gold is mined every year. It's, it's, we Can make a forecast, but we don't know it precisely. And a lot of factors impact that that supply, that that mine supply of of gold. And one of the factors impacting that is is is price, right? If the price of gold is high, then the miners will will increase their production. And if the price of gold is low, they will decrease the the production and the mining of gold. With Bitcoin, yeah, well, the whole production, the whole flow is pre-programmed. Every 10 minutes, on average, right? Every 10 minutes, there's a block, and in that block is a block subsidy

• 7:10Speaker 03

  with the new Bitcoins for the miner that found the hash of that block. So we know sort of that every 10 minutes and and and for the whole year, how how much Bitcoins will be mined. Of course, we don't know it exactly, because there is some variability in the in the 10-minute interval. Sometimes it it lasts an hour, sometimes you have like three blocks in in 10 minutes. But on average, we know, and especially long term, we know what the stock to flow ratio will be and thus what the price will be roughly.

• 7:45Anthony Pompliano?

  So when you think about these halving cycles, obviously, there's a supply shock. But how do you think about kind of the cyclical nature of this, right? Is there a point where you expect the model or ratio to be invalidated, either through external forces or people start to kind of price it in and and front run it? Like, how do you think about the fact that we do know the supply? And that helps for the accuracy of stock to flow. But at some point, does that become a a negative?

• 8:14Speaker 03

  Yeah, there's several aspects to that. Of course, from efficient market hypothesis, you would expect that this knowledge and the model would be priced in. So I actually, and and most people with me, expected the halving, the May 2020 halving would be priced in already. So we did, we would not see the actual price rise that we're seeing now that is very much in line with the stock to flow model. Because all the information is out there, the stock information, the flow, the stock to flow ratio and the model. So it it shouldn't follow the model as closely as it does today. On the other hand, there's there's a lot of people not believing the model, and the model, of course, hasn't proven itself. So maybe that that sort of

• 8:58Speaker 03

  Um puts the efficient market hypothesis argument aside, but on the other hand, um. Yeah, I I think that the stock to flow model will break uh in the future because um. One of the nice things about the stock to flow uh model and especially the stock to flow cross asset model, stock to flow X model. Which also incorporates uh data from the gold market, diamond market, real estate market and silver market. So other uh stores of value, if you will. If we um look at at that stock to flow X model, we can interpolate the data.

• 9:38Speaker 03

  Uh because gold has a higher stock to flow ratio than Bitcoin and real estate has a higher higher uh stock to flow ratio. Gold is sixty, around sixty, and real estate is around hundreds, uh where Bitcoin is fifty fifty five right now. Um so we know, we we can, within the data set we have available with with gold and and and and real estate in there with market. Uh values of of uh ten trillion for the gold market and hundred trillion for the real estate market. We can, we can interpolate within the data set. And uh and of course that ends, because if Bitcoin um will have its next halving in twenty twenty four.

• 10:21Speaker 03

  The Bitcoin stock to flow ratio will jump to a hundred, which is very, yeah, which is approximately the same as um real estate. Um but after next halving, where we jump to two hundred stock flow ratio for for Bitcoin. We're out of the model data uh bounds, if you will, and then we have to extrapolate. Which which is what basically all the other models are doing, they they're extrapolating into the future. Um which is very dangerous and and one of the big assets, big advantages of the stock to flow. Model, the stock for X model in particular, is that that this interpolation can be done. So to be in short, I think the stock to flow model.

• 11:04Speaker 03

  Uh, will end uh to be valid somewhere after next halving when the stock to flow is above hundred because we cannot interpolate anymore. And of course, that that that means probably that the dollar, uh, the denominator in that model wi- will end to play a big role or or or or something. Of course, it doesn't say that Bitcoin will die or something. It's it's or, you know, it's it's just a model will not be very accurate after that.

• 11:34Anthony Pompliano?

  For sure. And one of the things that I appreciate about you is not only can you look at something like the stock to flow model and talk about um kind of the cyclical natures of the havings, but also you've got a very good understanding of market structures uh and various things that happen on the exchanges. You had a tweet recently talking about these sell walls as uh kind of pure scare tactics. And we've pulled up the tweet here. Describe a little bit more about what goes on uh in these order books with the sell walls and how folks are using them as a scare tactic.

• 12:01Speaker 03

  Yeah, what most people maybe don't know is my background is in institutional investment. And I've been in the institutional investor roles uh my entire life. So I um started at a dealing a dealing room in FX trading, then went to banking balance sheets and and insurance balance sheets. And lately, my latest job was uh managing a pension balance sheet with the team. Uh, and that balance sheet was a hundred billion uh US dollars approximately. So I, yeah, I I spent my life chasing those those charts that you have in front there and and chasing those sell walls and buy walls. And I, yeah, what what I noticed was that most people are sort of scared by those big walls, those big, big uh sell walls in

• 12:46Speaker 03

  this case, in in that chart. Um, and and of course, the most of the time, not all the time, but most of the time, these sell walls are just there to scare people in uh not buying or or even selling. And um, because they signal, um, well, don't come here where there's at a price level where the sell wall is because we will uh we will sell and we will keep the price under this level. But in fact, what you see in real life, nine in 10 times, you see that as as the price approaches the sell wall. The sell will gets canceled and moved further away.

• 13:30Speaker 03

  So in this case, the price, the sell will be moved at a higher price. So it's just scare tactics and I thought it was a good thing for to put that in the tweet for other people to know.

• 13:44Anthony Pompliano?

  For sure. No, I think that people really appreciate that one. When you start to think about whether it's the sell walls on the order books, whether it's the stock to flow ratio, how do you think about what I'll call more quantifiable metrics and analysis with things like regulation or things that seem to be more external to the asset itself? Do you worry about that stuff? Do you think about it? Do you incorporate it in any way into your analysis?

• 14:09Speaker 03

  Yes, I certainly think about it and follow it like a hawk. Because the big moves in Bitcoin were all sort of triggered by regulatory changes, regulatory clarity. So I track all the important news and I put it in a database as well. However, I don't use it as an explicit input variable in my models. Both the stock flow model, which only has one input, which is stock to flow ratio, but also the on-chain models or the floor models, more technical analysis based models. They don't use that kind of information.

• 14:50Speaker 03

  But in fact, those kinds of news events, it could be regulatory news, but could also be other macroeconomic news, like El Salvador adopting Bitcoin or China banning Bitcoin, etc. This kind of news is very difficult to predict. Once it happens and what the impact will be, is it priced in? Do people expect it or not? So I regard those as trigger events that create an outlier in the model. Or and that means that there is a spike above the model value or below the value of the model.

• 15:33Speaker 03

  But those spikes, those trigger events are very rare and are very like black swan events. So they cause some variation in models, some model error. But they don't disturb the general trend in the models. That's what I, yeah, that's how I look at it.

• 15:53Anthony Pompliano?

  And how do you think about your investing philosophy? Do you try to trade around the asset based on all the data you look at? Are you just dollar cost averaging, buy and hold? Like, talk to us a little bit about the philosophy that you use. Given that you do have at least a, an understanding of what some of the data says, does that change what you do at all?

• 16:13Speaker 03

  Yeah. But I'm more an investor than a trader and certainly not a day trader. So I bought, I was lucky to buy Bitcoin in 2015 and 2016 when the price was 400, 500 kindish. So, so those are my, my Bitcoin investments. And, and I've told in other interviews as well that I sold half of that stash in, well, shortly after the peak in, in December 2017.

• 16:53Speaker 03

  Based on stock to flow kind of models. So, and I reinvested that half that I sold just before I published the article about stock to flow. Cause I knew we were at a very low level compared to the stock to flow model at that time. So, so in that way, I sort of trade or sort of try to time the, the peaks and, and the bottoms. But that's, that's on a monthly or even yearly basis. And I certainly do not trade on an hourly basis. That, that being said, I am very intrigued, as you know, by on-chain analysis.

• 17:35Speaker 03

  I do a lot of on-chain analysis and I have a great team of quants around me. That can do all sorts of programming, the blockchain data and, and getting signals from there. And that's very, very interesting. And, and sometimes you can, you can actually find patterns that, that are tradable on a daily or weekly or monthly basis. So on a shorter interval than I'm, I'm used to invest. And, and we are. Yeah, making use of those patterns with algorithmic trading software.

• 18:13Speaker 03

  So we write our own trading software that automatically scans for those anomalies and yeah, make use of that. And that was one of my skills also in my institutional career. Yeah, the algorithmic trading part is very, very interesting in the Bitcoin space.

• 18:33Anthony Pompliano?

  Tell us more about the institutional interest, whatever you can share, whether it's organizations that you work at or have worked at, or just kind of conversations with former colleagues, peers, people you know in the industry. What's the general sense from the institutions in terms of Bitcoin, what they're allocating, how they're thinking about those allocations?

• 18:50Speaker 03

  Yeah, so I'm Amsterdam-based. I talk a lot with European investors, some US investors, but it's mainly a European perspective that I have. Well, certainly the companies that I worked were not very interested in Bitcoin yet because mainly because of regulation and well misinformation, if you will, because most of them thought it was for criminals, it was for and governments would ban it and all that. And of course, for an institutional party like a bank or an insurance company, they have capital regimes with their central bank.

• 19:33Speaker 03

  So they'll have to put capital aside for every investment they make. If the investment is more risky, like Bitcoin, they have to park more capital for that investment. And for Bitcoin, it's almost one-to-one. So if they would do a billion dollars in Bitcoin, they would have to park a $1 billion in equity as well. And that is of course not doable. It's more doable for hedge funds. So what I see is it's not the big institutions, pension funds, insurance companies and banks that are investing on their own balance sheet or are interested in Bitcoin, but it is the

• 20:14Speaker 03

  hedge funds, the family offices very much so, and commodity investors, especially the gold and commodity investors are of course very much into the same philosophy that Bitcoin always have with sound money.

• 20:30Speaker 03

  And yeah, so family offices, commodity investors and hedge funds, those are the ones I see active and the other ones are, will be late as usual.

• 20:43Anthony Pompliano?

  And when you wake up in the morning, like, what do you check first? What's the data sources that you find most valuable? Or in terms of just understanding what's happening in the market, whether it's a short term or long term period?

• 20:54Speaker 03

  Well, to be honest, the price is one of the first things, the Bitcoin price, one of the first things I check because that's the most accurate and timely information. If it's the same as when I went to bed, then nothing happened. If it's, if it has a big delta, then something happened. And then I go on Twitter, which I find is my, the most direct and accurate information source there is. Because, yeah, well, one thing I learned is to not read mainstream media or watch mainstream television or even things, media sources like CNN and Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal

• 21:38Speaker 03

  that are considered the creme de la creme in institutional investing. I've learned that with these new investments like Bitcoin, you better ditch those standard sources and go to Twitter and the experts in the field because that's the, yeah, the most direct way of getting information.

• 22:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. And when you think about portfolio construction for yourself or for the institutions, maybe both, is this still something that is like a very small allocation? Or is it something that is being used to like denominate the whole portfolio? How do you just think about the portfolio construction and any sort of concentration targets?

• 22:22Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's a tricky question because I think for institutions, of course, that's very important to to keep the risk profile sort of constant and within their mandate. So they'll they'll have to sell Bitcoin as soon as it rises to keep to keep the the concentration low and within mandate boundaries. But with hedge funds or family offices or or for my own investments, I don't have those those mandates or or boundaries. So I can what what I see in practice that what starts as a small investment, a a couple

• 22:58Speaker 03

  percent investment in in Bitcoin soon grows to a double-digit position in in Bitcoin. And well, after a few years, four or five years, it it sort of dominates your portfolio. That sure is true with my my own investments as well.

• 23:19Anthony Pompliano?

  For sure. And then before I let my brothers ask a couple of questions, what do you think is the likely price for Bitcoin by the end of the year? And do you think that the bull market ends at the end of the year? Or does it carry us into the beginning of 2022?

• 23:33Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's the most asked question. I would be very, very surprised if Bitcoin price would be below $100,000 at the end of the year. That would well, sort of invalidate my view, my models, and that would that would certainly surprise me. I I do think we will see a price that is at least $135,000 by Christmas because that's what my floor model says. And basically, I'm using three kind of models that that all say the same thing. So stock to flow, which has 100,000 on average for the entire cycle.

• 24:18Speaker 03

  And we're, mind you, we're one and a half years into that cycle and with below 100,000 prices. So we'll have to to spend the next two and a half years markedly above 100,000 to make that that average. And the second model I use is the on-chain stuff. That that on-chain stuff is really good at at identifying bottoms and peaks. So we're now talking peaks, of course. So I know quite. Well, certain, not guaranteed, but I will have high confidence in that the on-chain indicators will signal a top. And if we look at the on-chain signals right now, I would

• 25:03Speaker 03

  say that top is at least a couple of months, say six months from here. So that would be end of Q1, maybe later. And then the third kind of models that I use, of course, that floor model, 135,000, that's not based on stock to flow, it's based on other, it's a proprietary thing, but it's based on other stuff, technical and on-chain. So, yeah, and by the way, that's very good at, like the name says, indicating bottoms. So I guess we will be above 100,000, above 135,000 at the end of the year, and then we'll continue

• 25:47Speaker 03

  to grow, maybe towards the stock to flow X model targets, 288, or even above. I would not be surprised even to see in Q1 or Q2 next year, prices of 300, 400, 500,000 dollars. But I do think, and I noticed you were talking before in the show that I'm a fool bull, that I'm fool bull, I am right now. But I'm quite sure that there will be a time when I switch from bull to bear, like I did at the end of 2017. And to be honest, I'm a

• 26:27Speaker 03

  bit of struggling with that. So I don't, I don't want to disclose it, because I want to at least disclose it responsibly, and not be responsible for triggering the bear market. So if people have ideas for that, I

• 26:44Speaker 03

  I think they're very welcome.

• 26:47Anthony Pompliano?

  And so when you think about that $288,000 price, I think a lot of people have heard you say that before. But when you say that it could go higher, 300, 400, 500,000 dollars, is that just pure kind of FOMO and a blow off top? That drives that or is there something else that you're looking at that shows that, hey, maybe we do go past that 288? That the stock to flow model has there?

• 27:09Speaker 03

  No, no, that that will indeed be a FOMO and that will be very clearly marked in the on chain.

• 27:17Speaker 03

  Analysis, which is looking for certain kinds of transactions that I, which I called them before. But those are FOMO transactions. So, so if, if I, if the, if the algos.

• 27:30Speaker 03

  See the, the FOMO kind of transactions coming in, then the end is near. And yeah, so, so I would envision like, for example, going to 500 K. Somewhere Q, Q2 or something and then crash back.

• 27:48Speaker 03

  Well, maybe 80% again to, to 100 K. Have a bit of a bear market and then continue another cycle, starting with the halving in 2024.

• 28:02Anthony Pompliano?

  Going from 55, 57,000 today to 500 K in Q2, back down to 100 K. And then continuing into the next halving. While it sounds crazy to, to a lot of people, would be pretty consistent with what we've seen in the past in terms of volatility. Both up and down. So it's a suspicion to hear you say that. Joe, what questions do you have?

• 28:23Speaker 04

  Yeah, Plan B. Thanks for doing this. I know I'm a big fan of yours and your models and your analysis. So I know a lot of others are also. My question would be around kind of the correction that you just spoke of, right? Which is. We're at 57, 58,000 now, almost. You're saying that it's going to average at least 100,000 over this cycle, which is 2020 to 2024. So we obviously have to go much higher, whether it's 300,000, 400,000, 500,000. We'll see. But traditionally, there's also been an 80% correction. So is that something that you think will in fact happen again? And kind of how are you thinking about that in the long term?

• 28:57Speaker 03

  Yeah, I do think that's exactly what will happen again. I can be wrong, but right? That's let me be very clear. I can be wrong, but I do think that four-year cycle that is sort of triggered by the halving is a very real thing. It has to do with scarcity of Bitcoin, has to do with the shortage that we're seeing right now. You know, Bitcoins are traded on exchanges and the exchanges have some inventory of Bitcoin and you can buy it, you can sell it. But it's basically not on-chain transactions. It's Bitcoins that are on the exchange and you buy them from other sellers and you sell them to other buyers.

• 29:37Speaker 03

  But if you look on-chain, so the Bitcoins that are in cold storage, that large investors have, you can very clearly see these waves of shortage. And we're in one right now that will at least last another couple of months before it's it's really well, out of sellers, if you will. But yeah, from there, and whatever news will trigger it, I don't know. I do think there will be a crash and it could be as large as the crashes we've seen in the past. We have had three crashes of 80% and I see no reason why we couldn't have another one,

• 30:21Speaker 03

  which of course is always short-lived and an excellent opportunity to buy more Bitcoin. But it could be quite scary for newcomers, which is. Uh, well, precisely what, of course, those those cycles do, they shake out people that are leveraged, that are investing with too much money, that are not certain of their investment strategy, that are, well, those, you need those, those really committed hotlers, if you will, and they'll rise again.

• 30:55Anthony Pompliano?

  John, what do you think?

• 30:56Speaker 05

  Yeah, Plan B, nice to virtually meet you. Congrats on all this success so far. I know you reached one million Twitter followers in just about three years. That's, that's pretty impressive. Um, I want to talk about your stock to flow model real quick. So you have it projected at hitting about a million dollars a coin by 2025. Do you believe this? Do you still believe it? And then if so, how do we get there?

• 31:15Speaker 03

  Yes, so I, I really do think that we have at least one more cycle to go in the stock to flow prediction. Uh, so yeah, that would bring Bitcoin um in, in the one, one million to five million dollar range. Uh, and I do, I really do believe that, that we're getting there. And so that would be the path that we're seeing right now. We're, we're going from, from fifty seven or right now to sixty three, ninety eight in November, and thirty five, for example, or, or something above that, right? Um, in, in December and then, uh, then FOMO starts to kick in, we go to two hundred, three hundred, four hundred, whatever, and then crash. And from there, we wait till the next halving. And the next halving will be

• 32:00Speaker 03

  another, another important, fundamental, and even maybe structural event for, for Bitcoin, because miner, I, I think that's, that's what people misunderstand, that, that, that it's all about the, um, the supply and, and the doubling of the, the stock to flow ratio, which, which, which is an important part. But the other part is that miners will have to survive that event, because their, their income, their, their source of income and their

• 32:30Speaker 03

  A revenue stream will will half and and they'll have to switch to to new equipment, find better ways to fund themselves and be much more efficient in their business. And if the if the miners and the whole business survives another halving, that's a major accomplishment and and and that will trigger eh the next the next rise from, say, a hundred thousand after the next crash to, well, ten X, twenty, thirty X, that amount, which is, yeah, in in the millions, indeed.

• 33:05Anthony Pompliano?

  It's it's pretty crazy, Pliny, when you start to look at this, when most people would hear, let's say, twenty twenty five, a million to five million, that feels like it's a very wide aperture in terms of outcomes. Help people understand why it's so hard to pinpoint, you know, a million to two million, let alone one to five million, right? I don't think people quite get kind of this idea of even into Q one, Q two of next year, if your kind of thesis plays out, you said, hey, two eighty eights in the model, but three hundred, four hundred, five hundred, that's a pretty big variation as well. So to help people understand like what drives that variability there.

• 33:41Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think that's an important question, and it's it's it's funny to see that how naturally and logical that that path of Bitcoin is to me and how how amazing it can be for for newcomers and and and traditional investors, indeed. And it's it the trick is to to look at it exponentially, so in logarithmic scale, if you will, because the it's not about the price level, it's about the growth level, the the percentage growth that is that is constant or or high at least. And maybe to to explain that, it it if you if you look at my my followers, which is one

• 34:24Speaker 03

  million now, which was which was unthinkable even a year ago, let alone two years ago. So three years ago, I started with, I I crossed a thousand followers boundary.

• 34:37Speaker 03

  And a year later, I crossed the 10,000. And then a year later, so the second year, I crossed the 100,000. And now in the third year, I crossed a million. And, and, and if you, if you look at that, that path, it's, it's 10x every year or 20% every month. And so it's amazing growth and, and, and people start to see it when you're, when you're big. But in fact, it's, it's, it's a constant growth of 20% per month. And, and yeah, that, that was 200,000 new followers last month, but it will probably be 220,000 new followers next month. And, and it's so that 20% is constant. And the same is with the Bitcoin price.

• 35:19Speaker 03

  Bitcoin goes, ah, yeah, let's say at, at 10x every, every two years. Uh, so, so 100x every four year period. And that, that is amazing. Uh, if, if you, if, yeah, to hear that, but if you actually experience that or look at the data, but that's different. That's, but if you experience, and as I did, of course, buying at 4, 500 and then going to 4, 5,000. And now we're at, at 40, 50,000. That's, that's 100x. And that, and there are people that have 1,000x their investment or 10,000x. And that, that, that constant growth, I guess, is very specific to Bitcoin.

• 36:00Speaker 03

  And triggered by the halving period, the scarcity that's intrinsic in Bitcoin. And that makes it such a perfect store of value. And, and, and more and more people, more and more people will recognize this, this unique property.

• 36:16Anthony Pompliano?

  What's the thing that, uh, when you look forward, you're most excited to? Is there a price milestone? Is there a number of entities on chain? Is there some sort of, uh, kind of external milestone? What, what's the thing that you're like, man, when this happens, that's going to be pretty cool? I'm really looking forward to it.

• 36:33Speaker 03

  Well, on the short term, I would be very, uh, would be very nice if we hit that sixty-three thousand mark end of this month. Because I guess that that's what really did it last time, nailing the forty-seven and forty-three thousand last two months. So sixty-three would be nice. Of course, the hundred K, the hundred K is sort of the make or break for for the stock flow model. So I really hope we hit that and and I'm quite certain, or not uncertain, I should say, that we're gonna hit that. And after that, I think the most amazing thing for most people and also for myself will be that om chain model turning red.

• 37:15Speaker 03

  The FOMO transactions that will be detectable and me as the full bull turning, turning bear. And, and, um, as I said, I'm struggling with that, how to how to communicate it. Maybe that's the best time to go dark. But, um, yeah, I think there will be a time where we switch from bull to bear. And that, of course, is is a a great, a great thing of a model, that it's it's not always bull, bull, bull, but that and and you're not always a moon boy, but that you that you can predict the downsides as well. So, yeah, I'm not looking forward to it on the one hand, but

• 37:59Speaker 03

  I I feel it's gonna happen someday later next year. But, yeah, I'm very much sort of looking forward to that moment.

• 38:08Anthony Pompliano?

  Do you have any thoughts on a Bitcoin ETF and how that could either support, accelerate, or be detrimental to stock the flow model?

• 38:17Speaker 03

  Yes, stock to flow ETF will make Bitcoin available for the masses, for for Papa Mom and investors. And yeah, it will be a huge thing for the market. Although we, of course,

• 38:32Speaker 03

  Think, well, you can you can buy Bitcoin right now. Why why should you pay the the fees that are associated with these funds? But it makes it easy for for the crowds. The hurt will be coming then. And that will be a big, big thing. So, yeah, I think it's coming maybe this month, maybe next month, but it will it will be there. Of course, the Gary Gensler from the SEC has already sort of nudged that that it is possible to start a futures Bitcoin futures ETF right now, which which I think has already been receiving applications for that at the moment. So so, yeah, I will be very surprised that would

• 39:15Speaker 03

  not be introduced this year. And what I also found very interesting was that one of the applications and one of the interviews with with one of the future ETFs Bitcoin ETFs was that they mentioned stock flow model as one of the models that they're tracking for future value. And, yeah, well, I think that's if once you've seen that, once you've when you understand the exponential growth and the four year cycles. Yeah, I think it's it's an asset you cannot you cannot deny.

• 39:48Anthony Pompliano?

  How about the macro environment, things like interest rates or quantitative easing, both in the United States and abroad? How do you think about that affecting this? Is it something where Bitcoin just remains not correlated? And, you know, it's worth paying attention to, but it doesn't ultimately have an effect on price? Or do you think that we've seen more correlation and therefore if there are some sort of tapering or kind of slowdown in some of those activities that it could be negative for Bitcoin?

• 40:12Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think it's very important. I think it's the one of the reasons that Satoshi, of course, made Bitcoin was against debasement, against money printing, which was very much present in in 2008, when he wrote the white paper, the white paper and the software, because that was at the peak of the financial crisis, the global financial crisis at the time. And the white paper was the Bitcoin white paper was published 45 days after the Lehman default. So, yeah, it's very, very important. It's also one of the reasons that I started looking from an institutional investor point of view towards alternative investments.

• 40:53Speaker 03

  Because I saw the, especially in Europe, of course, we have negative interest rates and that, yeah, that turns your world upside down. That you, yeah, school or university doesn't teach you that. So how do you survive a negative interest rate environment? And what does that tell you, negative interest rates? So, well, everybody's looking for yield and rates that are not negative. I started looking at alternatives and came to, came to Bitcoin through that. So I'm very grateful to the central bankers for introducing quantitative easing and negative interest rates, because otherwise I would never have found Bitcoin. So, yeah, I think what we

• 41:33Speaker 03

  also saw is that all the price movement, a lot of price movement in other markets, like the stock market, like S and P 500, were related or correlated with quantitative easing and possible tapering and, yeah, the money printing, if you will. So if money is printed, that money has to go somewhere. And first, it will be to bonds, government bonds, but the receivers of those bonds, usually banks or governments, will spend that money again. And so it will end up in the hands of the, well, the second layer that receives that money. And some of

• 42:17Speaker 03

  those companies and people will buy equities, real estate, and Bitcoin. And that's why we see all these markets go up, because there's just too much money. And in a way, it's just, yeah, too much money chasing few goods. So all the prices of those assets go up. Asset inflation is very real these days, as all the real estate investors will notice as well, and equity investors as well. So will the markets decouple? Well, it seems like it today, or this week, because Bitcoin goes up and all the other markets are not following. Even the altcoin markets are not following Bitcoin this time. So I guess in the end,

• 43:05Speaker 03

  Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value, consistent with my stock to flow model. It is not as scarce as gold, or about as scarce as gold today, but not as scarce as real estate today. So, real estate is one of this big money store of values today. But in the end, Bitcoin will have the same scarcity, the same stock to flow ratio as real estate, and it will be portable and communicatable by a phone line, by an internet connection. So, it will be better than gold and real estate together. And once people see that, the lits are off, and we go much higher in price than we are today.

• 43:50Anthony Pompliano?

  How do you think about those other assets, right? Either for your own portfolio or for those investors? Is this something where, let's take real estate investors, they begin to see that asset appreciation, they see their rents going up, they're continuing to make more and more money. And is it a thing where like that capital eventually will flow into Bitcoin as well? Because they understand store of value, they understand scarcity, they understand like a hard asset compared to that fiat devaluation? Or do you think that people who have been investing in the analog markets, like a real estate investor, they just have a hard time understanding buying a virtual item, or something that is this like global digital decentralized store of value?

• 44:29Speaker 03

  Yeah, both points are true, I think. So, money will start to flow from real estate and gold and other investments towards Bitcoin, the new investment. And yes, it is a generational thing as well, because the older guys that are not used to computers, they will have difficulty with understanding virtual assets. You see it with Peter Schiff. I know a lot of people that are like Peter Schiff, the old gold bugs, if you will. And I was a gold bug at the time. But people that cannot program, that are late in the computer thing, they

• 45:12Speaker 03

  will not appreciate the virtual aspect of Bitcoin, and they cannot understand digital scarcity. So, they'll clam to real estate and their trusted asset like gold. But in the end, yeah, the younger people will...

• 45:33Speaker 03

  Will will turn up and and and have all the money. And and those are people that have been uh teach computers and they have been on their iPhone all day. And there there's nothing scary about digital assets at all. And and they'll that that's what you see in family offices. So the younger generation is is pitching about Bitcoin and the older generation is against it. And and well, they they try 1% and that becomes 10% of the allocation. And and I think that's that's how it will go. And even with my own uh portfolio, I was I was like uh, well, like most people diversified uh 25% real estate,

• 46:11Speaker 03

  25% um uh equities, 25% gold, 25% uh new stuff, alternative stuff, say Bitcoin. But that Bitcoin percentage grew and grew and you learn and you think like, well, yeah, I I'm not gonna rebalance, I'm not gonna sell my best best running asset to to put it into gold or something. So or or buy an extra house, why should I? So yeah, I think I think it will be a very natural thing with uh generations uh the new generations coming into power.

• 46:44Anthony Pompliano?

  And from a gold perspective, everyone is very interested in the kind of the flipping, right? This idea that uh Bitcoin's market cap will eventually grow to be bigger than gold. Most people will point to gold's market cap at 10, 11 trillion dollars uh and Bitcoin being right over 1 trillion. It's kind of 10, 11x. Uh one of the things I've been very interested in is I actually think that gold's market cap is going to collapse uh over time. And so the flipping doesn't happen around 10, 11 trillion, it happens somewhere lower. And maybe that's 9 trillion, maybe that's, you know, 6, 7, 8 trillion. And I don't really know where, but just the idea that uh in order for Bitcoin to continue to grow, we are likely to see a collapse in gold's market cap. Is that your view as well or or do you disagree?

• 47:25Speaker 03

  Yeah, I I'm not a gold expert, but I know a lot of gold experts and I talk a lot with them. So I might be wrong on the gold thing, but I agree that I think gold will eventually uh go down in in uh in market cap and lose that money to uh to other investments like real estate or Bitcoin. Um, what I think, what I think the big bet that that gold investors take is is that it will once again be used by central bankers as the backing of a new world currency. And that could very well be, right, the the central banks are talking of the next Bretton Woods moment.

• 48:08Speaker 03

  They are talking about a global currency could very well be the IMF's special drawing rights, the SCR. And and yes, maybe that would be a currency, a a, as they are backed by gold. But that's the entire bet, the entire play they're doing. So i- if that happens, of course, gold will pump, will will go up in market cap. But I don't think they're gonna do that. And I, and in fact, Bitcoin is much cleaner in in um with the with respect that it does not have to be uh backed by anything. It's backed by, well, um, the energy and the mining in in Bitcoin,

• 48:51Speaker 03

  but not by another asset and not an account or an accountability problem that's associated with that. Uh, and that we see in gold, for example, because, yeah. How much gold is there in Fort Knox? How much gold to the Chinese central bank? How much do they really have? We don't know. And and with Bitcoin, it's very transparent. It's it's all on the blockchain. And yeah, in the end, uh, from a thermo uh dynamic point of view, from an energy point of view, that is so much more efficient for the human race. And I guess, uh, yeah, we will tilt towards Bitcoin because it's just better money.

• 49:30Anthony Pompliano?

  I I tend to agree. Do you think that eventually the nation states adopt Bitcoin? Uh, and it kind of grows to be a global reserve currency? Do you think it's a currency of the Internet? How how do you see kind of the ultimate destination for this asset if you think it's better money?

• 49:44Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think I think governments will adapt Bitcoin like like El Salvador did. It kind of amazes me that not other um states have and and nations have adopted it. Because it's the, yeah, most most logical thing to do, especially if they're under the pressure and and and uh regime of the IMF. If they're kept on a leash uh with with debt, um, which is certainly something that most countries will probably hate. But but of course, the leaders of those companies will be. Greatly paid by IMF and to keep that status quo. But yeah, most countries would be better off by switching to something other than debt,

• 50:28Speaker 03

  and especially euros-dollar denominated debt. So especially in South America, Mid-America, Africa, there must be countries that are going that route. And I'm following the Brazilian trend closely, because that government is doing some very spectacular stuff. And I'm also following some Eastern European countries like the Ukraine and the countries that belong to former Russia and are now sort of more oriented to Europe, but not part of the European Union. So they, yeah, they can switch to Bitcoin. I think some countries will, and I really hope that that will happen.

• 51:12Speaker 03

  On the other hand, I do think it's, in the end, a thing that's not decided by states, especially in the United States and Europe. It's something that's also decided by banks that are already much larger than most states, especially states like the Netherlands, where I live, which is very small. And the typical bank is like a multiple in size of that small country. So companies, banks, and also people will decide that they park their money in Bitcoin and not in a negative interest rate yielding saving account at the bank.

• 51:56Speaker 03

  And that will be a large and growing force with that same exponential, constant exponential that we see in the Bitcoin price or my follower count or some other things that go exponential. Very interesting.

• 52:11Anthony Pompliano?

  Plan B, I could literally talk to you for hours. Over the years, as I've seen your audience grow, seen you put out more and more content. I've just been super impressed. And so I think now, I think this is true. Michael Saylor, myself and you all have 1 million followers. My hope is that you beat me to 2 million. Because if you beat me to 2 million, that means that you've not only continued, but you've likely been right. Which means that most people who are listening to this would be very, very big fans of you. So, you know, just from everyone else and me, just thank you for all the work that you've done, all the contribution you've made to the community.

• 52:52Anthony Pompliano?

  It's, it's pretty cool to see how somebody who literally, I've never met in person. I don't know your name. I have no clue what you look like. I'm talking to a pseudonymous identity on the internet. And you've touched so many people, been able to build this large following. And it's all because of the quality of the work. It just stands on that alone is pretty incredible. So just thank you for doing all that.

• 53:15Speaker 03

  Well, thank you very much. And thank you for that last minute boost around to 1 million as well. That, that really did it. And I'm going after you guys, right? I'll, Saylor and you are above me. And I sort of calculated already that maybe before the summer, at the current growth rate, I could be number one, but who knows?

• 53:35Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, listen, I'm here putting your link for people to follow you on Twitter in the chat. I may stop doing that if I know you're coming for me.

• 53:44Speaker 03

  Thanks for everything, man.

• 53:46Anthony Pompliano?

  Of course. I appreciate you coming on. I think my brothers, every day, they say, well, Plan B said. So to their fans as well. Anyone who's listening to this, make sure you go follow them on Twitter. And we'll talk soon, my friend.

• 53:58Speaker 03

  Thanks, guys.

• 53:59Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, bye.