Raging Moderates: The Trump Administration Can’t Get Their Iran War Story Straight

As the war in Iran roils on, with devastating effects on the oil markets, what is Trump’s plan to get the U. S. out of another regional quagmire? Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov discuss the latest developments on the war in Iran from the administration — including a befuddling announcement from Trump, startling messaging from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and a foreboding sense from Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Cuba is next. Plus — Scott explains why the markets seem to have rebounded from yesterday’s oil price spike, and Jessica unpacks why Trump’s refusal to provide strong support for Ukraine in its war with Russia may have already hurt the U. S. in Iran. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov Follow Prof G, @profgalloway Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPodSubscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Scott Galloway?

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• 0:48Speaker 01

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• 1:18Speaker 02

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• 1:49Scott Galloway?

  Thanks for listening to Raging Moderates on the Prof G feed. We'll soon be leaving this feed, so if you want to subscribe to Raging Moderates on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and everywhere else, we'll be soon leaving this feed. So you're going to want to subscribe to Raging Moderates on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and everywhere else. You'll get new episodes every weekday evening, including the episode that you're about to hear. That's right, Raging Moderate subscribers get Jess and me five days a week. Subscribe now on YouTube or Substack for ad-free if you're into that. Now here's today's show.

• 2:24Scott Galloway?

  Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway.

• 2:26Jessica Tarlov?

  And I'm Jessica Tarlov.

• 2:27Scott Galloway?

  In today's episode of Raging Moderates, we're discussing why despite Trump saying the war is partially or completely done, he is ramping up military action in Iran. If you aren't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all the day's political news. All right, let's get into it. 11 days into the war with Iran, and the message from Trump is, quite frankly, it's just all over the place. On Monday, the peacetime president suggested the conflict might be wrapping up soon, saying the US and Israel are very far ahead of schedule. Well, can you share that schedule with us, boss? Anyways, markets briefly breathe the sigh of relief, but hours later, Trump warned that if Iran threatens global energy supplies,

• 3:10Scott Galloway?

  the US would respond so forcefully, the region would, open quote, "never recover." Meanwhile, shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, one of the most important oil choke points in the world, is heavily disrupted. So even as Trump talks about victory being close, the actual endgame of the war and the pain it's causing for Americans is still pretty unclear. Let's watch a moment from the presser yesterday giving mixed signals.

• 3:35Speaker 04

  Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote, "very complete," but your Defense Secretary says this is just the beginning. So which is it, and how long should Americans be prepared for this war to last for?

• 3:44Speaker 05

  Well, I think you could say both. The beginning, it's the beginning of building a new country, but they certainly, they have no navy, they have no air force, they have no anti-aircraft equipment, it's all been blown up, they have no radar, they have no telecommunications, and they have no leadership. It's all gone. So, you know, you could look at that statement. We could, we could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it, or we could go further. And we're gonna go further.

• 4:15Jessica Tarlov?

  Crazy like a fox, right? I love that he's saying it's a totally new country, but that is just being run by the 56-year-old son of the guy that you took out, who actually is more extreme and has a legitimate axe to grind that you killed his entire family on top of the beliefs that he already had. Trump was so all over in this press conference, and I want to talk about it, but I also want to bring what Marco Rubio said yesterday into the conversation because watching the goalposts shifting in real time is astounding.

• 4:48Speaker 06

  The goals of this mission are clear, and it's important to continue to remind the American people of why it is that the greatest military in the history of the world is engaged in this operation. It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles, both by destroying their missiles and their launchers, destroy the factories that make these missiles, and destroy their navy.

• 5:07Jessica Tarlov?

  Doesn't mention removing the regime, doesn't talk about the nuclear program, no mention of destroying Iran's ability to project power via proxy forces. We're not talking about Hezbollah or Hamas or anything anymore. So they're trying to just clean up their toys and go, right? Like, because they can't do what they set out to do, and they just fed us a bunch of talking points about how it actually would be a completely new country, how we would be supporting these oppressed people who, by the way, we don't see any rallies in the streets saying, "America, come help us." We just see death to America, death to Israel, and we know that between 1,000 and 1,300 innocent Iranians have been killed at this point.

• 5:47Jessica Tarlov?

  It feels like, except for taking out the navy, they've taken down, I think, 42 major Iranian vessels. Smaller ships has been not as much of the priority, but the navy part of that is definitely true. But they're still producing drones like they were before, and now Rubio is telling us that none of the story that we were sold is actually what we're gonna get out of this.

• 6:12Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, there's it's like, what boxes are we looking to check here? It's not even about mission accomplished. It's what is the mission? And we are on the precipice of potentially losing what was, I would argue, the biggest objective or benefit of this action. And that is, it seemed like early in the war, and this is a war, when the IRGC made what I think is the biggest blunder so far of sending projectiles into every Gulf nation. We had the formation of a stronger informal alliance between the US, Israel, and moderate nations in the Gulf. That would have been actually a really big win.

• 6:56Scott Galloway?

  And now we're losing their support because the Straits of Hormuz being blocked is just an enormous disruption for the Gulf states. Dubai, arguably one of the most successful urban sovereign centers in the world, in the UAE, kind of the 21st century Singapore. People want out, people are leaving. It looks much more vulnerable than it ever has. And it's not as if you can just turn off the tap and store this oil. You know, there are real issues to oil buildup. They get dangerous. These wells, just they're, they have oil flowing and the oil needs to go somewhere. And they can put it on ships, but then what do you do with the ships? They're talking about naval armadas to escort ships through the Straits of Hormuz,

• 7:41Scott Galloway?

  but they haven't quite figured it out. It just feels like, again, it was half-baked. And it feels as if, right now, in order to salvage what I think was, again, an enormous upside to potentially to this war, they need to be more tightly knit with the Gulf nations and say, how do we make the sacrifice we've all made here a win for you and a more sustainable peace across the region long term? And it feels as if slowly but surely, we're eroding all of that goodwill and starting to throw Gulf nations back into the arms of the IRGC. Because we can't even seem to articulate what it is we're trying to accomplish right now. And the other thing I wanted to ask you was that

• 8:24Scott Galloway?

  Those images, it felt post-apocalyptic of the bombing of oil fields near Tehran. And that kind of raining acidic black rain and those fires felt very, very frightening. And also, I would argue that a real danger here is the Balkanization and a potential civil war within Iran, because typically you don't get who you want in those situations. And also to gut the economic livelihood of Iran right now is probably, you lose an enormous bargaining chip and just creates further instability, which probably isn't good long-term for the region. And then when Trump came out, or when the president came out and said that, quote unquote,

• 9:05Scott Galloway?

  it got leaked that he was angry that Israel did this, that is such enormous bullshit. I think the IDF is essentially kind of the sixth branch of the US military right now. They are coordinating 100% right now. And this notion like, oh, these guys, these Israelis are out of control, but I'm the good guy, let's negotiate. It's just such, I just think that is such extraordinary bullshit, that this is, be clear, Trump's in charge here, but I think it was a huge mistake to go after the oil fields in Iran at this point. What are your thoughts?

• 9:40Jessica Tarlov?

  Well, having a better understanding of how intense the back-channeling is between the US and the Israelis, and not just our government, but someone like Jared Kushner and that wide-ranging presser that Trump gave yesterday, he actually said, based on what Jared Kushner told me, I thought Iran would attack us. Not based on what our intel agencies were telling us, but what my son-in-law, who has a lot of friends who help him make a lot of money in the region, is telling us. And you're completely right. I mean, I think that they had the same reaction that we all did when they saw Tehran engulfed in flames and thought, holy shit, this one is bad. Right? Especially on day, what was it, day eight?

• 10:22Jessica Tarlov?

  Of this war, but what has been interesting to see, and David Ignatius wrote about this in the Washington Post yesterday, that apparently a few senior officials in Israel are voicing concerns about the escalating open-ended attack on Iran. So that would imply that they thought it could be more surgical. I don't know if they're being dismissive of our military capabilities and then kind of saying, we gave you everything, right? Like, we told you where they were having brunch. We had, you know, a red light on their forehead, essentially, to be able to do this, and you guys are not living up to our expectation? Or just an acknowledgement that everybody failed in assessing how Iran would react

• 11:05Jessica Tarlov?

  to this? Because there's this machismo that we have.

• 11:08Scott Galloway?

  Right.

• 11:09Jessica Tarlov?

  Pete Hegseth, right? You know, beating his chest, saying, there's nobody like us, there's nobody like us. And there is nobody like us. But Iranian government, the IRGC, and the new Supreme Leader are not hankering to get to the table with us. They're going to run out the clock. They're YOLOing this. And they're making the other Gulf states suffer. I mean, there are 14 countries involved right now for something that they marketed at the beginning as a surgical strike, right, that we could be out of here in a few days.

• 11:41Scott Galloway?

  A special combat operation.

• 11:42Jessica Tarlov?

  Right. Which can be very open-ended, but we're talking about 14 countries. And they're just telling people to pull up their big boy pants and go through the Strait of Hormuz when that's certain death, right? Just get your tankers through. And I think it is interesting and important that Trump spent an hour on the phone with Putin yesterday. So when they came out and said, we're not bothered by the fact that the Russians are not only supplying drones, but are apparently giving targeting information for Americans.

• 12:09Scott Galloway?

  Intelligence, yeah.

• 12:10Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah. So he's gone to Putin, and, I mean, who knows what he actually said. But Pete Hegseth says, you know, it was a very sharp conversation. He told them, back off. And also, we want peace for Ukraine, as if that matters. You know, this is turning into a global problem, right? There is nothing small time about what's going on here. And it feels like all the wrong people are smiling at what they're seeing. And I don't know if you caught this, but CNN got a journalist into Iran, invited in to talk to a foreign policy adviser to the new Supreme Leader. And so you're watching a communications and marketing campaign. Play out as well, right?

• 12:51Jessica Tarlov?

  So on multiple fronts, it seems like flares are going up, that we are not moving towards any of the mission goals that were originally outlined. Maybe Rubio's lower grade goals will be accomplished or could be accomplished, but mostly that Jim Himes was right and that we are going to try to find an off-ramp with as little humiliation as possible and Trump will do a big, you know, Truth Social post and move on to Cuba.

• 13:19Scott Galloway?

  Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

• 13:25Scott Galloway?

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• 14:10Scott Galloway?

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• 14:28Scott Galloway?

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• 15:40Scott Galloway?

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• 16:23Scott Galloway?

  Over 16,000 fast-growing companies like Ramp, Ryder, and Harvey save time and resources while scaling fast with Vanta. Learn more at vanta.com/profg and get $1,000 off. That's spelled V A N T A dot com slash prof G for $1,000 off. Yeah, it does appear that the market is more optimistic about this work coming to a close. I mean, essentially, oil has come back from, I think, a high of $112 to approximately, I think it's right now trading at about $83. So it's come down substantially. It's off 12% just on the last day.

• 17:08Jessica Tarlov?

  Do you think that's because of Trump's comment? Or what do you think that's a result of?

• 17:13Scott Galloway?

  You know what? That's the correct question. The honest answer is I don't know. I think that it's looking increasingly like the regime is going to survive here. And also that there's increasing pressure to, if you will, declare victory and leave. But the markets, which absorb millions of points of information and are unemotional, non-political, it's just pure fear and greed, seem to be saying that the Straits of Hormuz will eventually, or sooner rather than later, be open. And that would be a function of one or two things, our ability to create convoys to escort ships safely, or that this conflict is going to come to some sort of resolution or start to wind down. And given what I've heard, it's more the latter.

• 17:57Scott Galloway?

  I don't think the Trump administration has been able to instill a great deal of confidence that they'll be able to create safe passage if this conflict continues at the same level of intensity it is right now. But the markets seem to be saying, and the S and P is flat and almost looks pretty boring over the last few days, that this will be over sooner rather than later. The issue is, again, and I don't understand why they aren't creating a series of objectives, declaring, you know, that they could say they've already met, as the president said. And then the most important thing, and the problem is, this isn't a president that appreciates diplomacy, to get all of the Gulf nations together and say, we've all made huge sacrifices here, how do we make this a win for all of you moving forward? What is it you want to make sure?

• 18:42Scott Galloway?

  And they might say, just get the fuck out of here. Or is it, do you want us to ensure that the launch capabilities are further neutered? Do you want to make sure that the Navy is totally, is unable to have any sort of mining capability or to deploy mines in the Straits of Hormuz? But I would argue that Secretary Rubio should be getting all the Gulf states in a room and saying, how do we make this a win for all of us, including you? Because to me, again, the biggest benefit coming out of this would be if we isolate Iran through an alliance with all the Gulf countries, including Israel, and such that they have faith that we are in fact a really strong, responsible partner. Because it feels as if...

• 19:25Scott Galloway?

  It feels as if every day that is weakening and again, we are shoving them back into the arms of Iran, which is really from a foreign policy perspective, in my view, on a meta level, the biggest mistake of the Trump administration and Secretary Rubio. And that is they're under the impression with a third of the world's GDP, we can take on the other two thirds. We used to be able to do that because we cooperated and we were the operating system for call it 60 or 70% of the world's military and GDP. But going at it alone is contrary to every basic notion of strategy in geopolitics. And that is the most successful geopolitical action are where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts because of cooperation and a unified West.

• 20:09Scott Galloway?

  And we had a, we had a moment, and I think, still think we have that moment, where I don't want to say the West, but call it capitalist or, you know, the modern world comes together and presents a united front to Iran and other rogue nations that includes the Gulf States. And that was the moment. It feels like that moment is passing. Any thoughts before we move on here, Jess?

• 20:33Jessica Tarlov?

  No, I, I agree with you and I'm, I'm thinking about, you know, next month, Trump goes to Beijing or is supposed to. And what do we look like for that meeting? I mean, this has to be done by then, right? I would presume and it seems like, you know, the off ramps are hap, are happening. But I am concerned about that, like what the perception is of our capabilities, how strong our leadership is, how much they're thinking through important alliances all over the world that can counteract the influence of China and make sure that, you know, Beijing doesn't have our proverbial number. Everyone should listen to China Decode.

• 21:18Jessica Tarlov?

  They talk about this all the time, which is another Proggy, uh, media podcast, but I definitely wonder if that's in the back of their minds as they're trying to deescalate from this, that there are, proverbially speaking, bigger fish to fry and there would be a way to keep Iran more in check through diplomacy and it's diplomacy plus business deals because everybody just wants to get richer and they're willing to compromise on a whole host of things. If that's possible, but the time for that big meeting that you were just talking about was before these strikes happened two Saturdays ago. You know, and I wonder if cluing in the Gulf states more as to what the US and Israel

• 21:59Jessica Tarlov?

  were thinking, trusted partners, not just, you know, broadcasting it over social media, but having, you know, real diplomatic conversations about the concerns that we have about missile capabilities, nuclear capabilities, whatever it is, on top of the talks with the Omanis and the Iranians to try to get a new nuclear deal would have been to our benefit. And it's going to be very hard to make it up to these countries after all is said and done, when we have spent billions of their dollars, because they've had to defend themselves. And we're helping with munitions and money, but there's still a great cost to each of these nations, who I think thought, generally speaking, were just making business deals

• 22:42Jessica Tarlov?

  with this guy and our new allies in Israel as well, as far as economic cooperation goes. And now there's bloodshed and there's a whole lot of money flying out of our door. And who is going to refill our stockpile? Because we didn't plan on a March war with Iran, right? That wasn't on our schedule. And I don't know how you repair those kinds of relationships, especially when they're so new. You know, there's something to these long-term alliances that we've had, and I hold out faith that the European alliance, the NATO alliance, et cetera, that that will carry on with us far into the future. But Gulf nations are new friends to a large degree, and I don't think that we're showing

• 23:25Jessica Tarlov?

  up properly when it comes to conflict. Maybe we are in business development and building a new resort wherever, but I think the last 10 days have shown that we're a pretty unreliable partner and that we will spend your money and you will shed blood for us. And I'm not sure what you get on the other side.

• 23:48Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, so just looking at some of the polls, 36% of US residents approve of how Trump is dealing with Iran. A better way to say that is 64% don't approve. 86% of Democrats and more than 61% of independents oppose US military action in Iran. And talk about a nation divided. 84% of Republicans either strongly support or support American military involvement in the region. 70% of Republicans up from 64% in 2025 perceive Iran to be a major threat. 27% of Democrats down from 38% share this view. So again, how do you feel about this? Ask me if you're a Democrat or Republican or-

• 24:26Jessica Tarlov?

  Though everyone is against boots on the ground.

• 24:28Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, that seems to be something that's bipartisan.

• 24:30Jessica Tarlov?

  That's the line in the sand.

• 24:32Scott Galloway?

  You brought, you brought that up from the very beginning that also what you brought up, I thought was really interesting. I hadn't considered was that your generation since 9/11, where a lot of people signed up and felt like they got a bad deal, is especially opposed to boots on the ground.

• 24:46Jessica Tarlov?

  There's also this story that just came out, I think Axios had the scoop, that back in August, the Ukrainians, who had been begging us for more support, right, for the Tomahawk missiles, that would have really helped when we got into trouble even because of the effect on Russia, that they tried to sell this battle proven tech for downing Iranian drones. They did a whole PowerPoint presentation and we basically said, no, thank you. And they said, no, this is going to be really good if you need to go up against folks in the Middle East like Iran. And they were dismissed. And apparently, there's a lot of regret within the administration, which totally makes sense, like coulda, woulda, shoulda. But I don't know how other countries are thinking more about our wellbeing or planning ahead better than we were. And it's

• 25:29Jessica Tarlov?

  just so ironic, of course, that it's the Ukrainians, right, that were the ones that came to us and said, if you get into this kind of mess, this is the way that we can help you get out of it. And now, last minute, we've had to call them and they have come to our aid. But the fact that there was literally a PowerPoint presentation is blowing my mind this morning.

• 25:47Scott Galloway?

  Well, I think one of the learnings that's going to come out of this is the same learning that's coming out of the Ukraine war, and that is- Asymmetric warfare, and that is our tomahawks costs millions and the Shahed drones, I believe, cost.

• 26:00Jessica Tarlov?

  20K.

• 26:01Scott Galloway?

  It's 20?

• 26:02Jessica Tarlov?

  20K. We spent $4 million for $20,000 to combat.

• 26:07Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, and it's, I don't know, like, what is it? Revenge is a...

• 26:12Jessica Tarlov?

  A cruel mistress?

• 26:14Scott Galloway?

  Revenge is a dish best served cold. I just love the idea of the Americans leaning on the Ukrainians for, for military advice. Anyways, all right, Jess, before we go, some big news. We'll be at South by Southwest this weekend.

• 26:29Jessica Tarlov?

  Yay.

• 26:29Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, right? In the great state of Texas.

• 26:31Jessica Tarlov?

  I'm so excited. And it'll be 80 degrees. It's been nice here the last couple of days.

• 26:35Scott Galloway?

  It's been beautiful.

• 26:36Jessica Tarlov?

  Nothing like it. I know.

• 26:37Scott Galloway?

  So we'll be at South by Southwest. If you're down there and you see either Jess or me, please say hi. We do, we're friendly. Also, in addition to now being five days a week, Raging Moderates is now available on Substack. Subscribers will get ad-free episodes, live streams, and a place to engage with Jess and me and other listeners. Find us at ragingmoderates.probtgmedia.com. Again, that's ragingmoderates.probtgmedia.com. That's all for this episode. Thank you so much for joining us today.

• 27:07Jessica Tarlov?

  See you later.

• 27:26Speaker 02

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