Is Trump Losing? A Debate

Is Donald Trump eroding American democracy and consolidating power for himself? Or is he trying to do that and failing? Is this what sliding toward authoritarianism looks like? Or is this what a functioning democracy looks like? And how can you tell the difference? Two articles came out recently that offer very different perspectives on these questions. In Vox, Zack Beauchamp wrote a piece called “Trump Is Losing,” which argues that Trump’s efforts to cow his enemies and consolidate power are not organized or strategic enough to make a serious dent in our democratic system. In The New Yorker, Andrew Marantz published a piece that he reported in Hungary, about how life in a modern authoritarian regime doesn’t look and feel like you might expect: “You can live through the big one, it turns out, and still go on acting as if — still go on feeling as if — the big one is not yet here,” he writes. So I invited both Beauchamp and Marantz on the show to debate these big questions: What timeline are we on? What signs are they looking at? If we’ve crossed the line into authoritarianism, how would we know? Is Trump losing? Or is it possible he’s already won? This episode contains strong language. Mentioned: How Democracies Die by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt “The Path to American Authoritarianism” by Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way “How Will We Know When We Have Lost Our Democracy?” by Steven LevitskyLucan Way and Daniel Ziblatt “Don’t Believe Him” by Ezra Klein “The Emergency Is Here” by Ezra Klein Democracy May Not Exist But We’ll Miss It When It’s Gone by Astra Taylor Recommendations Political Liberalism by John Rawls Eichmann in Jerusalem by Hannah Arendt A World After Liberalism by Matthew Rose Melting Point by Rachel Cockerell I’m Still Here (film) The Constitutional Bind by Aziz Rana Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected]. You can find the transcript and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu and Jack McCordick. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Marie Cascione, Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith, Marina King, Jan Kobal and Kristin Lin. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:31Ezra Klein?

  A question we talk about a lot amongst ourselves on the show right now is what timeline are we in and how will we know? Are we watching the fundamental erosion of American democracy, of its liberties, of its safeguards? Are we on a path that is quickly becoming irreversible? Or are we in the timeline where the Trump administration is doing a lot, where it is trying to arrogate new powers to itself? But to the extent it has a fundamental plan to reformat the way the American political system works, then it's simply running into too much opposition and it has too little power to succeed.

• 1:14Ezra Klein?

  Two pieces recently came out that I thought created an interesting tension and interesting ways to look at this. In Vox, Zack Beauchamp wrote this piece called "Trump is Losing." Beauchamp is an expert on competitive authoritarianism, the slide away from democracy and into something very different. His book, The Reactionary Spirit, looks at the way this has been happening worldwide. And his recent piece says, eh, it doesn't look like it's happening. That Trump is losing, that if you think that what he is trying to do is consolidate a certain kind of power to fundamentally change the nature of how America works, that he is facing the kind of opposition that does not look surmountable.

• 1:56Ezra Klein?

  In The New Yorker, Andrew Marantz wrote a similar piece, but from a very different place, from Hungary, where it already did happen. And I've read 1,000 pieces on Hungary at this point. But this one gave me this felt sense of the way in which, when this kind of authoritarian breakthrough succeeds, it may not feel in the moment like it is succeeding. Even after it has succeeded, it may not feel the way you think. You can still be there in the opposition, saying the things you want to say in a nice fancy cafe, drinking your Negroni. But the nature of your system is gone. This conversation is not an attempt to answer the question. We are not going to know what we are living through till long after it's over. But it is an effort to check in on the moment.

• 2:41Ezra Klein?

  Because what moment people think they are living through, even in the time they are living through it, matters for the decisions they make and for what ultimately happens. As always, my email, [email protected].

• 3:03Ezra Klein?

  Zach Beauchamp, Andrew Marantz, welcome to the show.

• 3:06Zack Beauchamp?

  Thanks for having me.

• 3:07Ezra Klein?

  Thanks. So Zach, you wrote this piece arguing that, at least from a certain perspective, Trump is losing, that he is not on track to achieve at least one version of his goals. Write your case for me.

• 3:21Zack Beauchamp?

  So the argument is that Trump's central goal of his administration, he wouldn't put it in these terms, but I think that it's sort of pretty fair to say that this is what their policies indicate towards, is changing the American regime, turning what was a democratic government and has long been a democratic government into some species of non-democratic government in which power is wielded primarily through the executive with basically few checks. And potentially even down the line, the fairness of elections is compromised. That part's speculative. But we can say that there's an attempt to reconfigure the constitutional order without having to amend the Constitution. And that means not just Trump saying that he is doing things to consolidate power, but actually doing it. And so I think that you can use a series of benchmarks. It's a brief checklist, right? First is that I

• 4:05Zack Beauchamp?

  Looked into sort of quantitatively the court rulings against Trump. And I found that not only did he lose vastly more than he won whenever there was an actual decision, but in most situations, the administration has complied with the something like four to one ratio of court orders where they've lost. Look at the cases of the students that have been targeted, right? Courts have been consistently ruling in their favor. They've issued statements publicly saying, we will never back off from defending what is right. And it looks most likely, based on the current legal trajectory, that they're going to be released. In fact, courts have ordered a significant number of student visas that have been taken away restored. And the State Department has complied with that. So that's one thing, right? Failing to consolidate institutional power.

• 4:46Zack Beauchamp?

  A second thing is failing to neutralize sources of opposition. And so I think the press is a really good example. Like, one of the first things that any of these guys does when they want to try to move towards an authoritarian state is suborn the press in some way, silence it, make sure there isn't effective criticism coming out of the media. And clear, there are instances of self censorship by the media, of Trump putting pressure on media organizations. But on the whole, if you look at the media landscape in the United States, there's no shortage of Trump criticism. We aren't having the entire country turning into Fox News. And the third thing is civil society. And here, the thing that really changed my mind is universities. Where you had at first Columbia, basically doing whatever Trump wanted to try to get the threat of a funding cuts,

• 5:30Zack Beauchamp?

  federal funding dollars being shut off off their back. But then, it looked like Harvard might be about to do the same thing. And then all of a sudden Harvard becomes the leader of the resistance, right? They're organizing this thing. There's a compact among big 10 schools that's been ratified by faculty senates in which they pledge, basically they call it a NATO for mutual legal defense. If Trump comes after one of them, they'll all defend each other with resources. There's a strategy group privately for Ivy League and other like top tier elite schools, where they're planning collective resistance against the Trump administration. This is not what happens when you effectively consolidate power. And you can see this in a number of different spheres, ranging from business to law.

• 6:06Ezra Klein?

  So let me ask one other question about what you said at the beginning. Because another interpretation is that you, we are being unfair to Donald Trump.

• 6:14Zack Beauchamp?

  Right.

• 6:15Ezra Klein?

  And he doesn't want authoritarianism, that he wants the literal things he's going after. He wants these concessions from universities because he or the people who work for him or advise him, I think they became antisemitic and woke. He wanted to, you know, push the press on certain things, but he actually does not want to destroy the free press. He's always said he will abide by court orders and, as you say, largely they're not, I think entirely, is that one reason it's not going the way you fear.

• 6:40Zack Beauchamp?

  Yeah.

• 6:41Ezra Klein?

  Is that the model in your head, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Modi in India, is actually not the right model. It is a hysterical resistance lib, fear casting onto Donald Trump.

• 6:53Zack Beauchamp?

  Yeah, so I thought about this.

• 6:54Ezra Klein?

  And it's unfair to Donald Trump.

• 6:56Zack Beauchamp?

  No, I thought about this objection a lot while I was working on the piece. Because, you know, Trump has never said, "I'm gonna be an authoritarian," or like, "This is my grandson."

• 7:03Ezra Klein?

  He said to be dictator on day one, but only on day one.

• 7:05Zack Beauchamp?

  Just on day one, just on day one.

• 7:06Ezra Klein?

  And terminate the Constitution and...

• 7:08Zack Beauchamp?

  But Viktor Orban doesn't say, "I wanna seize control of the Hungarian government and make myself dictator." Right? It's in the structure of modern authoritarianism, when you're dealing with backsliding from democracy, that they want to claim democratic benefits. They want to be able to say, "I'm still ruling on behalf of the people. Elections are still legitimate. In fact, my legitimacy flows from my popularity." So the way that you assess whether or not backsliding is happening is you look at the cumulative intent of the different policies put together. What would the output be if these policies all succeeded? If Trump actually got what he wanted in these cases? And we can see what that would look like, right? It would look like a series of deals, like the ones like Columbia and Paul Weiss made.

• 7:50Zack Beauchamp?

  It would look like the courts declining to challenge him for fear that he wouldn't be obeyed, or sorry, that they wouldn't be obeyed in this case. It would look like the media self-censoring. I mean, we're on this podcast saying that Trump is an authoritarian and none of us are afraid that Donald Trump is going to shut us down because we were on this podcast. That, to me, is a significant marker of failure.

• 8:10Ezra Klein?

  I think that the sort of, are they losing thing? I sort of have a few issues with it. One is, I sort of disagree with some of the particulars of the way we're accounting for the checklist. Like, the fact that they're losing court cases four to one.

• 8:26Speaker 02

  It depends on what the strategy is. If the strategy is to win every court case, then that's not a winning strategy. I don't think their strategy is to win every court case. I think there's a little bit of a heads I win, tails you lose kind of strategy where Trump has done a lot of losing of court cases in his life. He doesn't really seem to mind it that much. If he loses, maybe he loses partially, maybe it's a splitting the baby kind of partial victory. And then he wins a few court cases and he can take that as a victory. So I think if you lose sight of the felt experience of what it is like to be an American right now, and you just go to the checklist and you go to the norms and institutions, I think you're missing a key part of it. Like, I can tell you, the chilling of speech is working. It is working.

• 9:09Speaker 02

  Whether they lose every court case or not, people's speech is chilled.

• 9:13Ezra Klein?

  Who's speech?

• 9:14Speaker 02

  Students that I've spoken to.

• 9:17Ezra Klein?

  Do you think the media's chilled?

• 9:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, well, I mean, so-

• 9:20Ezra Klein?

  See, I don't. Is The New Yorker being chilled? Are they-

• 9:22Speaker 02

  Well, The New Yorker-

• 9:23Ezra Klein?

  Blink twice, Andrew.

• 9:25Speaker 02

  The New Yorker so far has not- Well, this is another thing, which is, where are we on the timeline?

• 9:30Ezra Klein?

  Yes, where are we on the timeline?

• 9:31Speaker 02

  If we're 100 days in, I mean, you totally could have gone to Orban's Hungary 100 days in and said, "He hasn't taken control of the media." It took him seven or eight years to get control of the media. So, you know, if you had The Washington Post killing editorial cartoons and changing its editorial mission ahead of a new regime coming into office, I wouldn't say the media is totally cooked, but I would say, "That doesn't look great."

• 9:58Ezra Klein?

  I think it's always important to actually be clear on what is the operative metaphor happening in analysts' minds. And the operative metaphor, I think, in this era has been Hungary. You wrote this piece that I think exists in an interesting tension with Zach's, where you went to Hungary and you spent a lot of time with the opposition, opposition media, opposition figures. You went to these universities that had been shut down, but they exist in this strange liminal space. What emerged out of that piece for me was a felt sense that losing may not feel or look like what you think it feels or looks like. Tell me about that trip.

• 10:35Speaker 02

  The felt sense was really, as you say, this liminal, you know, another term people use is hybrid regime. And the hybridity, the ambiguity, the plausible deniability, it's all around you. So, you know, you take the example of the universities. One thing that one reads about Hungary is Viktor Orban didn't like CEU, Central European University. He didn't like it because he was waging this kind of propaganda war against George Soros or the figure of George Soros, who was funding that university. And so he got rid of it. He kicked it out. And then you go there and you go to a building that says CEU on the front of it. And it has a big plaque that says George Soros funded this university. And you walk in and you're in the university that you were told was kicked out of Budapest.

• 11:18Speaker 02

  So, right there, I was like, what's going on exactly? And I was talking to dissidents in the middle of Budapest, criticizing the regime and calling it autocratic. And they weren't fearing that they were going to get stuffed into a van. And I found this really actually confusing, but also instructive because I didn't then leave and say, oh, Orban has lost. He has failed to consolidate control. I just thought, oh, what that means is maybe different than the notion I had in my head. So it doesn't mean that in order to get rid of CEU, you have to raid the building, put a padlock on the door and sell it to, you know, become a barracks or something. It means CEU is no longer a degree granting institution in Budapest.

• 12:02Speaker 02

  So it's this kind of, I call it a Temkin University. It's kind of hollowed out from within. Then I come back to the US. Trump is inaugurated and he starts going after Columbia University, saying, there are all these foreigners here. They have these strange foreign ideas. We don't like it. It's too woke. It's too antisemitic. Interestingly, the way they use the trope of the international Jew is kind of different in Hungary and in the US. But, you know, same, same. And then He starts levying these kind of informal attacks on Columbia University, but they don't take the form of an executive order that says Columbia University no longer exists. He doesn't send in the army to raid Columbia University.

• 12:44Speaker 02

  He says, because you're too woke and antisemitic, we are going to freeze these funds from you. And I think if I had seen that through a lens of, is this Iran in 1979? Or is this 1930s Germany? I would have said, oh, it's not happening here. But seeing it through the lens of competitive authoritarianism, I thought, okay, he's not going to get everything he wants. He's not going to wipe Columbia University off the map if that's even something he desires. But will he weaken it? Will he chill people's speech? I think he already has succeeded at doing that. I mean, and just to put, you know, the felt sense kind of to close that loop. What it really felt like reporting from Columbia University a few weeks ago

• 13:24Speaker 02

  was just this pervasive sense of fear and confusion about where the lines actually were, where formal and informal power was. And that really reminded me of what it was like to be in Budapest. There's this kind of invisible lines that are being made up as you go along. So if you had told me on March 6th, I'm afraid to leave my apartment because I think jackbooted thugs are going to show up in an unmarked van and stuff me in the van and I'll never see my family again. And then when my wife asks where I'm going, they say, we're taking him somewhere because we didn't like his political speech. See you later. I would have said, you're insane. This is the United States of America. What are you talking about? There's no law anywhere that says they can do that.

• 14:06Speaker 02

  If you told me that on March 9th, after they did that to Mahmoud Khalil, I would have said, yeah, you're right. You shouldn't go outside.

• 14:12Ezra Klein?

  And this is something you also say in the piece, but that some of what is happening here is worse than what is happening. There are places where you can say, well, they've not. Figure out how to consolidate control in the way Viktor Orban has. There are also places where they're going much further with the power of the state than Viktor Orban seems to have dared.

• 14:30Speaker 02

  Well, I think that's one of them. I think the disappearing of political prisoners for squarely protected political speech, that's more out of the bukele or duterte or pinochet playbook than out of the Orban playbook. And so it's a patchwork, right? It's sort of, it's not all of one or all of the other. I mean, the Hungarians I spoke to were like, whoa, what is that? We are not familiar with that, which was pretty shocking to me. But also, as Zach says, in other pillars, like the media, we're faring way better than they are.

• 15:01Ezra Klein?

  Let me talk to you about that felt sense, because I think it's really important. And let me lay out my own position, which I don't think we know what timeline we're in. Because it is not coherent into a timeline yet.

• 15:11Speaker 02

  It's too early.

• 15:11Ezra Klein?

  We're in, we're in quantum superposition. A lot of things might happen. We'll see who opens the box. One reason I take Zach's argument on this seriously, though, is that the felt sense of it has changed a little bit for me, for where we were three months ago. One of the things that I've been watching for myself is, does it feel like opposition is weakening or strengthening? Are people losing backbone or are they gaining it? My impression, and I'm not saying my impression is right, is that they are gaining it, not losing it. That the view is that the law firms that folded are embarrassments, that they'll go down in history with a black mark, that the ones who stood up are looking better. It was just a story the other day. We don't really know what's behind it, but it is notable.

• 15:55Ezra Klein?

  Microsoft moving some core work from, you know, one of the law firms that folded to one of the law firms that was fighting. That struck people as an interesting sign. Harvard looking a lot better than Columbia and sort of creating more backbone among other universities. And then Trump administration coming out and saying, oh, this was a mistake. Maybe we could just go back to the table together. And when I look at the media.

• 16:15Ezra Klein?

  I was quite concerned about when you saw the settling of the defamation cases, when you saw what Bezos was doing, when he came out and said, well, we're going to have this free markets and individual liberties opinion page. That could mean a lot of things, depending on how you define it. But you've not seen a purge of the liberal writers from the Washington Post opinion page. I'm not saying there's not a lot to worry about here, but the thing that feels to me like it's happening is there is more cohering of like coordination among the administration's targets rather than less. The students are a completely different category.

• 16:50Speaker 02

  Well, yeah. And, you know, some of the one of-

• 16:52Ezra Klein?

  But I'm asking, do you think as a felt sense, when you try to feel the zeitgeist of the moment, does it feel to you like the opposition is breaking its or it's cohering?

• 17:00Speaker 02

  I think you could, I mean, I'm with you that this week, as compared to a couple of weeks ago, the wind seems to be shifting in that direction. But I think in terms of assessing which timeline we're on, I'm not sure that it's that material where the winds are shifting this week or last week or last month. I think it's just too early to know. So I think if we're on a timeline that is anything like competitive authoritarianism, the first year or two or three might be the period we should look at rather than the first 100 days.

• 17:28Ezra Klein?

  Just so we have it on the table, when we talk about competitive authoritarianism, how do you define that?

• 17:33Speaker 02

  The competitive part means you still have elections. They may be free but not fair elections. They may be heavily gerrymandered elections, but it's not the totalitarian thing where the tanks roll in and it's emergency law forever and you rip up the constitution. It's a more subtle thing that political scientist Steven Levitsky and Luken Way tell you is happening before you kind of realize it's happening. So Orban is looked at as the model, the most successful consolidation of power. He didn't get what he wanted right away. He doesn't even get everything he wants now. He could lose the next election. I mean-

• 18:07Ezra Klein?

  Maybe.

• 18:07Speaker 02

  Maybe. I mean, he could. But even on a micro scale-

• 18:13Speaker 02

  There was a radio station that he wanted to get rid of when he first came into office. It was tied up in the courts until 2021, and then he finally shut it down. So I think, sure, the fact that the wind seems to be at the back of some of the resistance stuff this week is notable, and I think hopeful. And I, to be clear about my position, I don't think it's like we're cooked and it's over. But, I mean, basically, what I think the goal should be is, you know, there's one of these great Orwell aphorisms, it's sort of overused, but I think for a good reason. Seeing what's in front of one's nose needs a daily struggle. And I think to see things clearly, you need to not be writing backwards from the end of the story.

• 19:21Ezra Klein?

  I want to pick up on the way antisemitism popped up here for a minute, Zach. You've covered a lot of the ways antisemitism works in illiberal movements. And the way it is working in this one is very strange.

• 19:31Speaker 02

  It's so weird, but it's also-

• 19:33Ezra Klein?

  So on the one hand, it's become the excuse for a lot of what they're doing, right? They need to, you know, break Columbia, break Harvard because of all the antisemitism. On the other hand, there is this, you know, throw open the doors of X to neo-Nazis and a movement that includes many antisemitic or antisemitic adjacent people. I mean, Donald Trump at one point had dinner with Nick Fuentes. You track this pretty closely. How do you understand the, both the usage of antisemitism as a rationale and rise of antisemitic figures in that movement at the same time?

• 20:05Speaker 02

  I mean-

• 20:07Zack Beauchamp?

  Anti-Semitism has since, I mean, honestly, since the existence of Christianity, been a conspiracy theory, started with the idea that the Jews collectively killed Jesus, and has become an explanatory framework for everything bad that has happened since. And in that way, it's protean, because antisemitism can be adapted as an explanation for whatever bad thing you want to happen, you can blame it on the Jews. But what you can also do is reconstruct the figure of who the Jew is and what they are doing in ways that are useful for your political project. So it also centers on an old idea, but one that Trump has explicitly appropriated, the idea of there being good Jews and bad Jews. And the good Jews are one that fit the dominant political characteristics and acceptable political characteristics at the time, right, of this area. You see this in Hungary, actually, right?

• 20:51Zack Beauchamp?

  There's an Orthodox community led by Chabad that's aligned in many ways with the regime.

• 20:55Speaker 02

  And they get paraded out at events and stuff.

• 20:57Zack Beauchamp?

  Yeah, yeah, see, we're so tolerant, we've made the country safe for Jews. And that, you know, that figure of Jewish allies is really useful because antisemitism now, after World War II, explicit racial antisemitism, is a real no-no in a lot of places. Because of the legacy of Nazism, sounding like a Nazi is politically very bad for you. It fractures your coalition, it makes you look harmful. And yet, there are lots of Nazis who, or people who at least have Nazi-aligned beliefs about race science, about Jews, who are in the Trump coalition. So they're playing a game, and the game goes something like this. It's, we can use our opposition to the pro-Palestine movement and to the elements of those movements

• 21:41Zack Beauchamp?

  that are themselves antisemitism, because antisemitism exists in all different political movements in different degrees. And we can use it as proof that though we're associated with those people, you can't tar us with the Nazi slur that is so often directed at right-wing political movements.

• 21:58Zack Beauchamp?

  In fact, we can appropriate the power of anti-Semitism as a justification for power grab. And then the flip side of this, of course, is that these power grabs target institutions and even arguably this sort of entire liberal ideology that has been the cornerstone of American Jewish flourishing.

• 22:16Ezra Klein?

  Andrew, what's your take on that?

• 22:17Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think that basically sounds right, and it explains how the figure of Soros or the international Jew is kind of used in different ways. I mean, you don't have to look much further than Elon Musk doing what looked a lot like something that sort of seemed like a Roman salute and then

• 22:33Ezra Klein?

  And then Steve Bannon doing it.

• 22:35Speaker 02

  And then Steve Bannon doing it.

• 22:36Ezra Klein?

  And Elon Musk at a different point when somebody was just offering extremely vile anti-Semitic conspiracy theories on Twitter.

• 22:43Speaker 02

  You have said the absolute truth.

• 22:45Ezra Klein?

  You can be a friend of Israel and be anti-Semitic.

• 22:47Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 22:47Ezra Klein?

  Right? That's how I just think it's important.

• 22:49Speaker 02

  Breaking that news here. But I do think that it's important to have that framework. It gets to this point of ambiguity, hybridity, plausible deniability. What are you? Are you anti the Jews or are you for the Jews? You know, it cuts against this idea of a kind of clean, quantifiable checklist. And also, it cuts against the idea of, you know, did Columbia fully exceed and did Harvard fully join the resistance? Right? Before Harvard became the hero of the resistance, they adopted the IHRA definition of antisemitism. They kicked out the head of their Middle East Studies Center. All of this, you know, what Tim Snyder would call anticipatory obedience. And then the administration pushed them too far, maybe by accident, and then they joined the resistance. Right? So it's always hybridity all the way down, I would say.

• 23:35Ezra Klein?

  Your first book was about the rise of the online, what now is a MAGA, right? And you have these great scenes of being on these neo-Nazi podcasts. And there's a strangeness in the degree to which that is broken through, which I'd be curious to hear how you've absorbed. So you have much more mainstream figures now, like Joe Rogan, having these World War II revisionist historians on. I've seen arguments, Matt Glazier's made this point, that there is a generalized sense on the right, that you need to question the foundational, what they see as myth or rationale of modern liberalism, which is that the Nazis are bad and the worst thing that can happen is Hitler. And

• 24:17Ezra Klein?

  in this effort to be completely uncensored, it's like, well, this is the last taboo and it needs to be broken.

• 24:24Ezra Klein?

  What do you think is going on there?

• 24:26Speaker 02

  Look, I used to, we used to call it the alt-right, now it's called the right.

• 24:29Ezra Klein?

  Yeah.

• 24:29Speaker 02

  And they are playing with taboos in ways that I think are multiple things at once. Some of it is just the old fashioned troll, you know, can't you take a joke? You know, this isn't actually what you think it is.

• 24:41Ezra Klein?

  Or can't you take a conversation?

• 24:42Speaker 02

  Can't you get, yeah, are you too scared to talk about taboo things? Can't we just push the boundaries, right? Those things all kind of redound to the political benefit of the movement that is, you know, transgression and the thrill of forbidden knowledge is one of the most appealing things in the rhetorical playbook. But just to stick on the Hungary example, first time I did a reporting trip to Hungary was 2022, when they announced that CPAC was going to be held in Hungary, the first European CPAC. And I first heard that and said, that must be a troll. Like, that's too on the nose. You wouldn't have CPAC in the only authoritarian country in Europe if it's 2022 and you're trying to win reelection. But they did, and I went. And there was this whole saga about whether they would let me in.

• 25:26Speaker 02

  And they kind of, again, with the sort of gaslighting and the hybridity, they were like, sure, sure, we love independent media, you can surely come in. And then in the end, they didn't let me in, and then I had to sneak in, it was a whole thing. But while I was there, Orbán had just been reelected. The resistance, the sort of popular front against him, thought they had a chance to beat him, and it turned out they really did not. And one of his first speeches in parliament, he did a whole thing about the great replacement theory, which used to be this fringe alt-right idea that the international Jew, among others, are trying to engineer this whole conspiracy to let in these scary brown hordes and overwhelm majority white nations with invaders. That used to be like crazy, crazy fringe 4chan stuff.

• 26:09Speaker 02

  And over the time that I had been covering it, it went from the fringe discredited theory known as great replacement theory, to the thing Tucker Carlson is saying every night on his show, to the thing Viktor Orbán is saying in parliament, to now the things that members of Congress are saying in the US.

• 26:26Ezra Klein?

  Yeah, the righteous beliefs.

• 26:26Speaker 02

  Right.

• 26:27Ezra Klein?

  I want to go back to those disappearances, because this is a thing I thought about when I read your piece too, Zach. You know the old William Gibson line, "The future is here, it's just unevenly distributed."

• 26:37Zack Beauchamp?

  Yeah.

• 26:37Ezra Klein?

  I think one way to look at the moment is authoritarianism is here, it's just unevenly distributed. That, yes, on the one hand, you can be you and me and Andrew sitting here on a podcast in the New York Times Citadel, talking about authoritarianism, or you could be one of these kids at Columbia doing a pro-Palestinian protest, marched into a detention center. And there is this effort on the part of the administration. They, I think, want to gear up for mass deportations. But before they've had the capacity to do that, what they're trying to create is a regime of fear. And they're creating regime of fear with tactics that are much more authoritarian, even totalitarian, than I would have seen coming.

• 27:20Ezra Klein?

  I mean, the photo of Kristi Noem, the Secretary of Homeland Security, at the El Salvadoran prison, with all these prisoners stacked behind her for the photo op. Quite the usage of foreign disappearance as a tool of domestic fear. Trump having that meeting with Bukele, saying that he would want to send Americans to Bukele's prisons. It's just an uneasy tension with the idea that this is failing, because in some cases, it's going further than you could have imagined, further than I thought they would have been able to, or even would have wanted to.

• 27:55Zack Beauchamp?

  Yeah, so I think that's exact evidence that they're failing. In fact, that's the reason why they're failing. So what they're trying to do is to make a show of exacting costs on dissidents. And what that's supposed to do is to chill dissent. Only it's not working. The people that they are targeting, they're winning in court, and then they're able to publicly say, "We're not going to be quiet about this. We're not going to stop." That is what it looks like when these kinds of tactics fail, when they're checked. They exist inside a system where there is still a meaningful degree of rules of law. Had they done just what Viktor Orban did in Hungary, or done this all through very subtle, sophisticated legal machinations, that would have been a more effective tactic.

• 28:37Zack Beauchamp?

  But what happened is they make a big show out of it. They send Gristinoam to do these really disturbing photo ops. They publicly abduct people on the street with masked men. And would you do those things? You send a signal that what you're doing is authoritarianism. What you're doing is terrifying. And if you haven't consolidated control at that point, and you have a country that has really strong democratic institutions and a large section of the public that cares about those, you invite resistance. Right? I wrote a piece that basically said there are two strategies in Trump's authoritarianism. There's the Orban sophisticated subtle strategy, and then there's Trump's own desires, which is to be someone like Nayib Bukele, who like rules openly, does whatever he wants, iron

• 29:20Zack Beauchamp?

  fist kind of ruling, right? Trump has openly proclaimed his interest in ruling like a dictator, not just on day one, but also admiration for things like the Tiananmen Square crackdown, or he said a long time ago. And that these strategies contradict each other. So the Orban strategy depends on stealth and subtlety. And the Bukele strategy depends on massive, rapid, aggressive shows of force backed by the armed forces of your country.

• 29:42Ezra Klein?

  The thing about Bukele, and I think this is important for something that you touched on a second ago, Andrew, is Bukele is popular. He is overwhelmingly popular. Viktor Orban has been popular. You mentioned a second ago, him winning reelection at a time when the opposition thought it was massing an effective case against him.

• 30:00Zack Beauchamp?

  Modi is hugely popular.

• 30:01Ezra Klein?

  Modi is hugely popular. The thing about Trump is that they are not, as best we can tell, conserving popularity or building on it. There is a version of this. I mean, Trump came in more popular in a second term than he was in his first. He came in with allies he didn't have in his first term. And they are spending that popularity very quickly. Some of it is on overreach, like the Regal Garcia case. But more of it is on a betrayal of this central promise of the Trump campaign, which is that things are going to be cheaper. And Trump has lost public opinion altitude very quickly. Now, he's not up for reelection. But Republicans, I know--

• 30:38Zack Beauchamp?

  As far as we know.

• 30:39Ezra Klein?

  Republicans, not in the next election, anyway. The next one is the midterms. Republicans I know think they're going to lose the midterms. They are not operating on the assumption that Donald Trump is going to save them. People around Trump that I know have told me explicitly, we've got to do this fast because we're probably going to lose the midterms and then we're not going to be able to do as much after that. Some of their blitzkrieg strategy has to do with a view that they are not going to consolidate power. If you ask me what is strengthening the opposition to Trump, I would say it's the tariffs. It's not the court cases. It's not some invisible change in the winds. It is a fact that Trump is alienating many of his supporters and the business community

• 31:21Ezra Klein?

  by lashing himself to the mast of an incredibly dumb economic theory and then seeming to double down and double down on it, coming out and saying, well, American kids have too many dolls. You might have too many pencils. My toilet is made of gold, but you have 30 pencils and you only need five.

• 31:36Speaker 02

  I mean, so to be clear, I would agree with Zach's broad point that Trump is not doing it the Orban way and that Trump is impulsive and that the tariffs hurt him. And so I think we all broadly agree that the laws of political gravity have not been suspended. I mean, one of the important points that people made to me over and over again while I was reporting this piece is even if you call it authoritarianism, and many of the people I spoke to did, many of the political scientists I spoke to, including some of the, we spoke to some of the same political scientists, they told me flat out, America is currently not a democracy. And yet in the next breath-

• 32:10Ezra Klein?

  They said, "America is not a democracy?"

• 32:12Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 32:12Ezra Klein?

  Yeah, they did. But I have a lot of issues with the way that that definition-

• 32:15Speaker 02

  Well, we should talk-

• 32:16Ezra Klein?

  -was right, which we should talk about in a second.

• 32:17Speaker 02

  We should talk about that.

• 32:17Ezra Klein?

  When they say, well, let's hold there for a second. When they say, "America is not a democracy," at this moment, what do they mean?

• 32:21Speaker 02

  Well, so it was interesting. So Steven Levitsky, who was one of the co-authors of How Democracies Die, he also was a co-author of this really seminal paper where he defined, he invented the term competitive authoritarianism. I spoke to him and his co-author on that paper, Luken Way. And when I talked to both of them, I said, "Where are we on the map of history right now?" They said, "We have crossed the line. We are no longer a democracy." They had written this piece called "The Path to American Authoritarianism," and they said, "We are on that path and we are in fact past the line." They didn't say, "We're past the point of no return," because the definition of-

• 32:55Ezra Klein?

  But what is the line?

• 32:56Speaker 02

  It's a little squishy what the line is. To back up, one thing I said, because I was thinking about metaphors and we were talking about, you know, where in the Schrödinger's cat of democracy are we? One thing that I think is a real flaw in the metaphors, you know, we're writers, we think about metaphors. I think the death metaphor is really misleading because death is the only thing I can think of that is permanent and nothing else is permanent, especially in politics. So I was sort of musing about this to Levitsky and I was surprised at how quickly he threw his title under the bus. And he was like, yeah, actually, death is a terrible metaphor. I shouldn't have called the book that. Democracies don't die. They can always be rebuilt.

• 33:31Ezra Klein?

  He doesn't really believe he shouldn't have called the book that. Everybody knows that title worked.

• 33:35Zack Beauchamp?

  Pretty successful book. No, I mean, on your bright line question, Ezra, they, Steve and Luke and Dan Zblat wrote an op ed in the New York Times where they laid it out, I think more formally, what the criteria were, right? And the argument is you have crossed the line from a democratic state when opposition has costs, when people-

• 33:51Speaker 02

  When you have to think twice before you speak up and-

• 33:53Zack Beauchamp?

  Right, right. And that's the bright line. Now, of course, that bright line is pretty fuzzy, right? Like, if you're a conservative, you would argue that in the quote unquote woke era, opposition to the reigning moral ideology had costs.

• 34:04Speaker 02

  And on that point, you know, we were talking about, we're sitting here in the citadel and we're not afraid to call it out. And that's true. I will say, and again, these are very early signs because we're not far enough into the timeline to know, no, The New Yorker has not been compromised. And no, free speech is not dead. And yes, it does matter that we have a First Amendment. I will say, though, when I was reporting up at Columbia, people were giving me anonymous information and they were saying, we're actually sort of scared to give this to you because we don't know what all the harboring laws are. We could be sort of making you an accessory to someone who's on the run from ICE or something. And I gave the spiel that journalists always give, which is, if you're an anonymous source, I will go to the mat to protect you. We are willing to go to jail to protect our sources.

• 34:48Speaker 02

  And when those words came out of my mouth, I said, how willing to go to jail am I, actually? That was the first time I'd had to think about that. So I don't think I'm going to jail anytime soon, but the fact that I had to think twice about it-

• 34:58Ezra Klein?

  I agree with this. I have the same experience. I think about things I didn't used to think about.

• 35:03Speaker 02

  Am I gonna get-

• 35:04Ezra Klein?

  But it hasn't changed my behavior yet. Now, different people, I mean, I think this is like the, it's here but unevenly distributed argument. Different people are in different positions with this. I know people who are writers, who are well-known writers, who there are things they will not write because they're on a green card. If you are on a green card right now, you are living in a different world than if you were born here. It's just true. If you're here on a work visa, a student visa, you're living in a different world than if you were born here. And there are ways that they are going after people who, you know, have power in American society too, right? They have had these executive orders going after people like Miles Taylor and John Bolton, who were members of the Trump administration in the first term, who they feel were disloyal.

• 35:46Ezra Klein?

  They are going after Letitia James, the New York Attorney General, because she prosecuted Donald Trump. So there are ways in which that they are trying to make examples of people, make life hard for them, use what money or control they have, use the machinery of the federal government, and it's early. Now, maybe that stiffens the spine of the opposition. Maybe that infuriates people and it backfires on them. But they are trying to make the opposition think twice.

• 36:14Zack Beauchamp?

  Yeah, those are the examples I wish I'd brought up earlier when you were asking me about, you know, how do we know that this is what they're trying to do? Well, it's exactly things like that. That is evidence of authoritarian intent. The question, though, and the reason why I don't like the framing that we've already crossed the line into competitive authoritarianism, is that that implies that those efforts are having the intended effect. And I do, Andrew, I take the caution that you're describing, that we don't know how things are going to go in, you know, a year or two or something like that. I don't, I can't claim to know that. What I'm trying to do is make a judgment about where we're at and what we can extrapolate from sort of the current trajectory of things. And it's not just, I think, a couple of days or weeks where we've been seeing this momentum build against Trump. It's over the course of months, right?

• 36:59Zack Beauchamp?

  And certainly, since the tariffs started, to your point earlier, right? The tariffs have supercharged opposition to Trump because it's generated this level of public backlash.

• 37:10Ezra Klein?

  Well, and so I think we can agree that the tariffs were a bad idea and that they will have a political cost and that generally people don't like it when you tank the economy and that that might cause them to lose the midterms. And by the way, generally speaking, you always lose the midterms when you're in the White House.

• 37:24Zack Beauchamp?

  But buy more, buy more.

• 37:26Ezra Klein?

  Buy more, but then the question is really, what do we mean by losing? If they lose the midterms and if Trump doesn't get everything he wants, right? If Trump doesn't get to be king for life and he doesn't get to hand the scepter and crown to Don Jr. and he doesn't get his face on Mount Rushmore, is that losing? Or, because I would argue that they've already not lost in the sense that...

• 37:44Speaker 02

  Okay, a couple of the students that they tried to put in jail have been freed. Mahmoud Khalil is still, last I checked, in prison. I don't mean last I checked glibly. I mean, like, I checked yesterday and I don't know what happened today. I don't think, on the flip side, that one should see as much alarm and hair on fire either everywhere you look. But there's a little bit of goalpost shifting that I worry about, where we'll say, "Well, what if something really scary happens, like defying the Supreme Court?" And then we all watch on live TV as they sit in the Oval Office and defy the Supreme Court. And we go, "Maybe in the future, something scary will happen." Like, I don't know how much more-

• 38:16Ezra Klein?

  So I think that's right, but I think that's why it's actually worth being- There are many things we can be talking about in losing and winning.

• 38:22Speaker 02

  Mm-hmm.

• 38:23Ezra Klein?

  And I guess to define the topic that we're talking about here, what you are writing about in "Is It Happening Here?", right? The "it" is competitive authoritarianism. If you told me that what they're doing is they're in a mad rush to get as much of their agenda done as they possibly can before they lose the power to get it done in the future, and that, yes, American institutions will be affected by them. They decapitated USAID. They've decapitated the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. But in ways that a Democratic president could simply rebuild it immediately, the moment they got into office, right? That is different from they have structurally changed the flows of power, money, safety,

• 39:07Ezra Klein?

  that allow for a fair election in the future. But, and this goes back to my piece, "Don't Believe Him", the question of what people think is happening actually does affect what happens.

• 39:19Speaker 02

  Totally.

• 39:20Ezra Klein?

  Right? And, look, if they can roll through American society with Americans coming to the view that they cannot be stopped, then they will not be stopped. Whereas if people notice, like, okay, when Harvard stood up, they sort of backed up. And like, "I wish we had not made you stand up against us." Like, maybe we could like go back to where we were a week ago and keep having that same conversation. That's notable. And so that's, I think, where it's meaningful, like, is what is happening in front of our face the consolidation of power? Or is it a flat-out rush to get done what they can get done before they lose power? Those are, what people think is happening will affect what is happening.

• 39:57Speaker 02

  So I totally, I agree that you don't want to. I think- Don't obey in advance includes don't treat him like a dictator before he's a dictator. And I think that's very important. And it is also what I worry about when we talk about having crossed a bright line. That's why I push back on the permanence of the death metaphor. If we're talking about erosion or rebuilding, then it starts to be a little more clear. So I actually, if you talk about they lose the midterms or the next president is a Democrat, you know, you say they can instantly rebuild. It's hard for me to see how we just go back to normal from here. Part of what I worry about and part of why I worry that we're not plainly seeing what's in front of us

• 40:39Speaker 02

  is the way in which the Trumpist regime has already gotten some of what it wants in informal ways. Precisely because it's not agreeing to the consensus of, you know, it feels very vaporous to talk about norms and institutions. And I am very much not into the norms will save us, the courts will save us. Like I get all the critiques of that and I share many of them. But to say that Trump doesn't have the formal power to do X, Y, or Z, I think ignores the ways in which he's already done those things. So can he disappear people? Yes, he can. He already has. Can he freeze and impound funds? Yes, he has. And you've written when he did those things-

• 41:21Ezra Klein?

  But the fact that he's been turned back on a bunch of this, they're not sending a bunch more people to the El Salvadoran prison at the moment. They've been like that authority got blocked for the moment.

• 41:30Speaker 02

  They're not sending them back either.

• 41:31Ezra Klein?

  They're not sending them back, but there are policies you can achieve and then the policy is done. And there are powers you are claiming. It does matter whether or not those authorities get entrenched.

• 41:40Speaker 02

  Sure. I guess what I'm saying is they can be-

• 41:42Ezra Klein?

  Can you disappear as a tactic is different than whether or not you've, and I'm as fucking hair on fire about the disappearances as anybody.

• 41:47Speaker 02

  I get it.

• 41:48Ezra Klein?

  Like tried to-

• 41:48Speaker 02

  But what I'm saying is that whether they're entrenched, to me, is not merely a measure of whether they're written down on paper in a judicial order. Whether they're entrenched also has to do with when you do them, what happens informally to you. So all I'm saying is I don't think we're all going to end up in a gulag. But I don't necessarily think that that power is unentrenched because it is informal. So let me back up. There's this idea of political orders. I know you're a Gary Gerstl head, as am I. Gary Gerstl has this whole notion of what a political order is. It's this big hegemonic, right? So he has this notion that there was the New Deal political order, which was succeeded by the Reagan neoliberal political order. It's not just, oh, people used to like Democrats, now they like Republicans.

• 42:32Ezra Klein?

  It's the Reagan-Clinton neoliberal order. And if anybody wants to get Gerstl pill, you can search in the archives of the show for our Gary Gerstl conversation right before the election.

• 42:40Speaker 02

  Great episode. And so what I sort of see that political order thing as doing is trying to get outside, trying to get on a much bigger timeline. And I sort of see, I don't know if Gerstl would co-sign this, I might be out on a limb here, but I sort of see it as like a structure of scientific revolutions of politics. The structure of scientific revolutions, where we get paradigm shift from, it's not like-

• 43:04Ezra Klein?

  Is it the book by Thomas Kuhn that coins a term paradigm shift?

• 43:06Speaker 02

  The philosopher of science, who, when he's talking about a paradigm shift, he's not talking about, oh, we didn't have microscopes and now we do. What a paradigm shift. That's really useful. He's talking about ideas that are inconceivable, unthinkable, not allowed by, like, you don't even form them in your mind because they're unthinkable. And so if you take that into the structure of political orders and how they shift, things that were unthinkable as an Eisenhower Republican or a Nixon Republican, you know, you don't just attack and defund the welfare state. That's not how politics works. Then after the Reagan revolution, all you do is different degrees of attack the welfare state, right? So in that sense, if we want to talk about the timeline of what it would mean for Trump to be winning

• 43:50Speaker 02

  and reshifting, I think you said, the constitutional order, part of what I think about is if the neoliberal order is cracked, as Gerstl says it is, then the question is what will succeed it? It could just be that we just sort of muddle through with nothing to replace it and it's just what Gramsci would call the time of monsters, like indefinitely. Or it could be-

• 44:11Ezra Klein?

  Abundance.

• 44:13Speaker 02

  It could be abundance, right? But so you need a vision for what will replace it, as you know.

• 44:17Ezra Klein?

  Yes, the whole conclusion of the book is about political orders.

• 44:20Speaker 02

  Right. And so- If abundance liberalism is what succeeds neoliberalism, that's an answer. If Trumpist competitive authoritarianism is what succeeds it, that is an answer. And in a way, this is like a little sort of weird to think about, but it may be the case that it's already happened and we just don't know it yet. This is kind of the Schrodinger's cat thing. I mean, when the rise and fall of the New Deal order came out, the book's introduction said, "The New Deal order is over, but we don't yet know what will replace it." That book came out in 1989. So we might be sitting here in a timeline where Trumpism has replaced neoliberalism in 2016 and we just don't know it.

• 45:01Ezra Klein?

  Well, here's a way in which it has happened. I mean, you wrote a whole book about the rise of an international reactionary right.

• 45:07Speaker 02

  Right.

• 45:08Ezra Klein?

  And to go to Andrew's nice line from earlier, we used to call it the alt-right. Now we just call it the right. One thing that seems completely clear, there's no snapback to an old Republican party. You look at 25-year-olds on the right, they are completely bought into a very extreme version of this. Like the, the, the rising generation of MAGA, I mean, the guardrails are completely off. So in that way, it seems like the competition now is between some form of liberalism and some form of illiberalism. And that's definitely not going away. And like, maybe, you know, you survive this term, but then, you know, like, how do you see that?

• 45:45Speaker 02

  Well, I agree that the former parameters of American politics have been blown apart in the beginning of this administration. The question is, are they doing something to effectively consolidate a new vision for the political order, as you suggested? I mean, if you look at the way of going after the media, even within that first year, Orban had developed a new state-created conglomerate for different media organizations that effectively allowed him to begin exercising power over the media in a structural way, that there's no...

• 46:14Zack Beauchamp?

  Version of that in the United States, there isn't even a concept of a plan here. There's not a tool for power consolidation. But to the immediate question about like, what is the future of the right? I think it's true that these young, like among incredible cadres of young people, there's an obsession with figures like Bronze Age pervert Curtis Yarvin, people who have views that are explicitly anti-democratic, bigoted. You know, there's, there's, there's a notion that it is interesting and fun even among these cadres to say things that are offensive and that irony has quickly bled into sincerity, right? Where there's a deep faith and a sense that these, these things that they were saying to get a rise out of people are now true.

• 46:55Zack Beauchamp?

  The question is, how much influence does that wield over the future Republican Party? And I don't actually know the answer to that question because we don't know. The story of the Trump era hasn't been written yet, right? When I say things aren't going very well, let's assume they continue to not go very well. We get to the midterms, they lose dramatically. Then the administration starts flailing around in the next two years and a Democrat wins the White House and Democrats control Congress by an overwhelming margin. Well, what does the Republican Party do with defeat? And what does it do after Trump? Cause like, we all act like Donald Trump is immortal, right? He can't die and maybe he is, I don't know. He, the man certainly has survived a lot. And when Donald Trump dies, the glue that holds the Republican coalition together is gone.

• 47:39Zack Beauchamp?

  This is a very common problem in authoritarian states, right? The succession problem. When so much is glued together, and I think really, if you look at the details of the Republican coalition, a lot of disagreements are being papered over by the overwhelming charismatic force of one man. And when he's off the scene, what happens to the right at that point? And that, that's a very open question, especially in a world where his political project looks like it's a failing one, which may or may not be true in four years.

• 48:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, I don't disagree that there are fissures and tensions within the Republican coalition. I mean, one thing about the BAP and Yarvin and all this stuff, the cadres are interested in reading them, but the, you know, chief ideologists in the White House are retweeting them.

• 48:16Zack Beauchamp?

  The vice president.

• 48:17Speaker 02

  Yeah. And not only is the vice president reading them, but he's saying things like, when the Supreme Court gives us an order we don't like, we should say, the justice has made his order, now let him enforce it, right? So I think you could put together some worries, some signs. I also think the strength or weakness of the opposition matters enormously in this too. So in every place in India, in Hungary, in Israel. The reactionary right is able to rampage to victory precisely because of the weakness and division within the opposition. So none of this, I agree, is foretold. One of the things I worry about is a kind of overly rigid reliance on the kind of playbook stuff, like this isn't how it's supposed to be done. Because I agree, he's doing different

• 48:57Speaker 02

  things than what Orban is doing. He's doing some Bukele stuff, he's doing some improvisation. I just woke up today and thought of something weird and put it on Truth Social. It's a hodgepodge of stuff. I mean, Kim Lane, Shepala has this term, the Frankenstate, where you can kind of Frankenstein a bunch of legitimate seeming things and make your own new form of an illegitimate state. Now, I don't think anyone would disagree that Trump is not as patient and diligent and well-read as Viktor Orban. But, you know, Bolsonaro did a version of this in Brazil, and yes, he ended up getting defeated in the next election, but he came very close to rigging it in his own favor. And Bolsonaro was not a disciplined, well-read guy either. So there's different playbooks, and you can invent new ones as you go.

• 49:41Ezra Klein?

  Well, let me turn this question around, Zach. What if it began happening would make you write a piece, it's like, oh shit, maybe, maybe the timeline is changing. Yeah, maybe it's bad. Like you had said a minute ago, they don't have a theory of co-opting media. There was a moment where, you know, it seems like MSNBC is going to get spun off in some kind of future sale, or at least potentially is going to get spun off in some kind of future sale of assets. And you began to hear talk of like, would Elon Musk buy it? And write, just hollow it out. That's something you've seen in other countries. The oligarchic allies of the president purchase media outlets and then turn them like towards the regime's goals.

• 50:22Speaker 02

  He already bought Twitter. I mean.

• 50:23Ezra Klein?

  He already bought Twitter and did exactly that with it. Although, I have a very strong view that Twitter is a net negative for the Trump administration, but that's my, that's my endless thing, that political movements suffer for being too brain-rotted by that place, not for not having enough power on it. But that's a.

• 50:40Speaker 02

  That's your eternally hot take.

• 50:42Ezra Klein?

  Huh? That's my endless take. The Democrat, that. We've all been on those sites. We know what the brain. Yeah, that, that Democrats suffered in. For having been so strong on Twitter in 2020.

• 50:52Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 50:52Ezra Klein?

  They convince themselves of a bunch of very politically dangerous things and they paid a price for it. And this world in which Elon Musk and everybody are talking themselves into great replacement theory on Twitter, this is a bad way to win over the median voter in America.

• 51:05Speaker 02

  Well, you could make a version of the fighting the last war argument in precisely this context, that the Democrats are learning that maybe they should have waited Trump out more the first time and not done such a big visibly cringe resistance. And so now they're trying to play dead more than they should.

• 51:20Ezra Klein?

  I don't think they're trying to play dead. I don't think it's a fair description of where Democrats are these days.

• 51:23Speaker 02

  I agree.

• 51:24Ezra Klein?

  But let me, let me put that to the side. What would frighten you, right? What if it begins turning would be a signal?

• 51:32Zack Beauchamp?

  To me, the big thing to watch is where the Supreme Court weighs in on a variety of these different cases, right? Because for all Trump is losing in the lower courts, the Supreme Court has the ultimate say on a variety of these things, and there's a six-three conservative majority. Now, it's indicated that it's willing to challenge the administration in certain ways, which is a positive sign. But if the Supreme Court starts basically laying out the welcome mat for a variety of different Trump policies, or clearing out the legal barriers that are in place, I think that is, that could be the single biggest warning sign. Because then a number of these other things that seem like they're less likely to happen, or there are significant barriers in their place, all of a sudden become thinkable as actual, real, enforceable things over the course of time. Seeing more compliance from media organizations, not just Elon Musk buying MSNBC, which would

• 52:16Zack Beauchamp?

  be like the end stage of this, but rather, you know, earlier stages, more places, seeing more self-centeredship from different people.

• 52:49Ezra Klein?

  One thing that was true about Trump's reelection campaign is he built, for the first time, a MAGA coalition. In 2016, he took over the Republican Party. In 2024, he built his own thing. It includes Maha, right? I don't know exactly how we say that, with R.K. Junior, but I think very, very potently the tech right. And my sense from knowing some of these people is that that coalition is under strain. So Musk is still very allied, but it seems to be stepping back from government because he might like light his Tesla empire on fire if he doesn't. I'm hearing a little bit less from people like Marc Andreessen. They've gotten a little bit quieter is my sense of them.

• 53:31Speaker 02

  They're on the group chats.

• 53:32Ezra Klein?

  They're on the group chats, but also, I mean, in Ben Smith's great Semaphore story about the group chats, you had this amazing ending where on one of these big group chats that had been a key, I would call a key point of influence for the tech right to convert others. The tech right got really mad at how people were getting mad at Donald Trump and you had like David Sacks and Tucker Carlson, them leaving the group chat. And I, again, I know some of these people got very Trump curious. And my sense of them is they think this is going badly, not for necessarily the reasons we do, but they think Doge was a failure. It didn't save that much money and just sort of did things kind of at random with a buzzsaw. They hate the tariffs. They think the tariffs are really dumb. I'm not saying that the tech right becomes the tech left.

• 54:15Ezra Klein?

  I don't think that's where any of this goes. But from that moment where you had the entire billionaire class assembled before Donald Trump at the inauguration to now, something seems like it is under strain and contested again, as opposed to he was able to consolidate it and make the alliance permanent.

• 54:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is where, again, I would sort of argue for a wider frame. So like, I think that the timeline can be broad enough that it can contain something like Trump losing some or all of the tech right without him being done for. You know, for example-

• 54:47Ezra Klein?

  Yeah, I'm not saying he's done for.

• 54:48Speaker 02

  No, no, no, but I mean, even if we're just thinking about where this ends up. Let's say he loses parts of his coalition. Let's say he loses Musk. That would be a big blow to him. But you know, you've written about Shumishka in Hungary. I know that Hungarian words are famously hard to say, so I'm sure I'm butchering that. But you know, the Musk before Musk oligarch, who was one of Orban's biggest allies, and then he lost him and he became an opponent. And that was a blow to Orban, but it was not at all fatal to him. So I could totally see a story where- The coalition is big enough and durable enough that it can withstand things like losing the midterms. And it's already done things. I mean, you talk about the Supreme Court. We're already in a timeline where they wouldn't give Merrick Garland a hearing. You know, again, it's like if you heard about this happening in another country, you'd

• 55:31Speaker 02

  say, it doesn't sound super 100% democratic to me to not seat your opponent and then seat one of your own people on the Supreme Court. One thing we know about John Roberts is he really wants to seem even-handed. So if you take a bunch of things to the Supreme Court that are just facially unconstitutional, they're not going to hand you down smackdown 9-0 decisions every time.

• 55:51Ezra Klein?

  Okay, but let me make the other side's argument on this. That actually, that's just politics and the way it works. Curtis Yarvin loves to bring up FDR. And I don't think FDR actually makes any of Curtis Yarvin's points for him. But one thing that I think is interesting about the way liberals remember FDR from this perspective is the Supreme Court is standing four square against the New Deal. FDR threatens to court pack. He loses that fight, but seems to convince some key members of the court that they don't really want this confrontation. And the court begins to turn around on some issues. And we look back on that, and liberals are like, damn, good work, FDR. Right? Like, we ended the Lochner Court.

• 56:34Ezra Klein?

  I expect that the Supreme Court is going to give them some of what they want. But a world in which they basically accept a negotiated bid for 20% of the powers they've attempted to take, without really changing any of the institutional structures of American life, I don't know, isn't that what kind of goes on all the time?

• 56:52Speaker 02

  Well, I would say it kind of is changing the structures of American life in the sense that it's how you get a new paradigm. So part of what FDR was doing there was not just politics as usual, it was battering his way to a new political order. So I agree that the biggest challenge to all this is, and someone, a conservative legal scholar, said this to me while reporting the piece, if someone were doing this on behalf of policies you like, how much would it bother you? I think that is the hardest question to answer. And we can sit here and say we would be perfectly consistent and non-hypocritical, and, you know, who knows if that's true. One key point, though, is that Yes, you work things out in the courts, you challenge the courts. The fact that that is an option that's available to you, to me, doesn't put it outside

• 57:37Speaker 02

  the realm of competitive authoritarianism. If Trump is able to break through to a new political paradigm and get competitive authoritarianism, I think that is part of how he will do it. He'll throw a bunch of stuff to the courts that says, "The Fourteenth Amendment doesn't say what it says, and I know you said discrimination against trans people was illegal, but I'm gonna do it." And on and on and on and on and on. And if they let him get one out of those 10 things, that is actually how you get competitive authoritarianism. You throw a bunch of stuff at the wall and see what sticks. And I agree that he's doing it in this flagrant, blatant way. It could be incompetence and impulsiveness. It could be actually that that's part of the strategy. But either way, I don't think he's gonna get it by amending the Constitution. I don't think he's gonna get it by indefinite martial law.

• 58:22Speaker 02

  I think if he gets it, it'll be through stuff like this.

• 58:23Zack Beauchamp?

  But I don't agree, actually. I don't think that is how you get competitive authoritarianism. How you get competitive authoritarianism, if you look at any case where it happened, is through not just doing a bunch of random stuff, but through taking a systematic and deliberate effort to restructure the fundamentals of a society and getting key building blocks in place in a strategic way that allows you to wield power effectively. You brought Lago Sumica a second ago, right? That's a really instructive example.

• 58:50Speaker 02

  The Hungarian oligarch?

• 58:51Zack Beauchamp?

  Yeah, that's right.

• 58:52Speaker 02

  For those of us not...

• 58:53Zack Beauchamp?

  Who have not spent a lot of time in Hungary, like Andrew and I have. So, he was like Orban's friend, right? From their days prior to power, right? This isn't a man like Elon Musk who developed his wealth independently. His entire business empire owed itself to government patronage, right? He had a media empire that was funded in large part through government advertising dollars. So when he decided he had this break with Orban, Sumica calls him a bunch of nasty names. And what happens is Orban destroys him because Orban was pulling his strings the entire time. He had control over all of these things. He had control over the money, he had the control over the flow of the resources, all of which had been developed through years of systematic building and power consolidation laid on a...

• 59:37Zack Beauchamp?

  Round work of a super majority in the legislature. Right, that they got in 2010 and have not relinquished since, allowing them to do whatever they want to the constitution based on Hungarian constitutional rules. None of those things exist in the US. And I don't want to peg this too carefully to the Hungarian example. Because you can say the same thing. I mean, my book is about the US, Hungary, Israel and India. And if you look at each of those cases, there's a very, very deliberate effort when it's successful. Using the reins of power in careful, studied, practical ways to get what you want. And the problem with Trump is I just see no evidence that that's happening, which is not to say that American society couldn't buckle. It's just that he's doing it badly and doing it really badly.

• 1:00:21Speaker 02

  Look, I mean, I think what we can agree on is that every case is different. We're not the Hungarian case. We can't use a two thirds majority to rewrite the constitution. But again, you know, this is what I mean about kind of writing to the end of the story instead of seeing what's in front of our nose. Netanyahu didn't win the fight over the judicial reform. Orban loses fights all the time. We tell the story in retrospect as Orban, the great genius who got what he wanted. But we know that he loses fights all the time. This is what's competitive in part about competitive authoritarianism. It's still politics. It's still a fight. And so, look, I grant that every case is different. But Bukele did it a different way. Duterte did it a different way. Bolsonaro did it a different way.

• 1:01:05Speaker 02

  And ultimately, when the history of this is written, it won't be, oh, he didn't do it the right way. It'll be, did it work?

• 1:01:12Zack Beauchamp?

  Well, I would note that both Duterte and Bolsonaro are currently arrested.

• 1:01:16Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:01:16Zack Beauchamp?

  Right, and facing charges. They didn't really do a great job at building a competitive authoritarian regime.

• 1:01:20Speaker 02

  Well, I think they did in the sense that, look, I agree with you that Trump won't reign forever. The question is, what's the wreckage you leave behind? And we were talking before about how easy would it be to rebuild? I don't think if you come in in Brazil or Poland, you just rebuild right away and everything's cool. I think it takes many, many years.

• 1:01:38Zack Beauchamp?

  Agree.

• 1:01:39Speaker 02

  To rebuild. So if what we're talking about is can you do four years of constitutional damage and then leave, I wouldn't consider that losing.

• 1:01:46Zack Beauchamp?

  If you do accept the premise, and I do accept the premise, that we are in an interrenium between orders. We are in a very messy and deranging fight because there is no settled set of answers in American politics, no settled set of questions that both sides take and sort of have agreed on the boundaries upon.

• 1:02:07Ezra Klein?

  So when you think about the Democratic Opposition right now,

• 1:02:12Ezra Klein?

  it is still processing in its own ways 2024. And it has learned, I think, certain lessons that are relatively consensus at this moment among its leadership. Democrats had, in fits and starts, gone too far left. They really, really politically screwed up and substantively on the border. They got crosswise on like trans edge case issues that they never should have allowed to define them, right? Like trans swimmers in NCAA sports. There's a set of things that I think they all believe, but they don't know what comes next. One thing that I have heard many people on the right say is, look, it's you guys who expanded the federal government's control of all these institutions.

• 1:02:57Ezra Klein?

  It's you guys who made it so all these universities are so dependent on federal grants, who built this gigantic nonprofit complex that was living off of USAID and NIH and so on money. And I have leverage over all these different parts of society. What Chris Ruffalo, I think, believes himself to be doing is basically retracing what the liberals did and seeing how that is leverage for what he now wants to do. He's just like, to him, he has like a counter revolutionary following the revolutionaries. Is there something about that? Or I see the other side in liberalism right now, where they sort of want their own Elon Musk. They want their own strong central leader, not a strong man in the way that Trump wants to be a strong man, but there's a sense of like, oh, I need somebody who can come and break my own China.

• 1:03:39Ezra Klein?

  What, as the opposition tries to define itself, not just reconstitute itself, are there yet lessons for it to learn?

• 1:03:47Zack Beauchamp?

  Yeah, I mean, before the show, you and I were talking about liberalism. So my political lodestar is John Rawls in his book, Political Liberalism. And Rawls has this idea of an overlapping consensus. People don't agree on everything important. They don't even agree on everything that's an important moral thing. In fact, his, his basic position is there are certain disagreements that cannot be resolved through politics, that no one can resolve. What makes a liberal democratic polity function is that we agree at least on how to resolve those disagreements, right? And the bounds in which those disagreements take place. For instance, that it's wrong to coerce people, to force them to act contrary to their own beliefs, or to impose a vision of the good life onto certain people. And I think a lot of the conflict in politics right now.

• 1:04:31Zack Beauchamp?

  Is the result of the American overlapping consensus breaking down? Right? And a lot of the disagreements between different factions right now are over who broke it and why, and whether or not it can be repaired. So the Chris Ruffo position, right? I've interviewed Chris and when you talk to him, his view is the liberals aren't really liberals. They're leftist authoritarians in liberal clothing. They are basically the ideological heirs of Maoists. And they went about trying to impose their sort of Maoist left wing cultural agenda on the United States, and I'm just trying to fix that. In that light, Chris's project sounds almost Ralzian, right?

• 1:05:03Ezra Klein?

  Ruffo understands himself strangely as a moderate.

• 1:05:06Zack Beauchamp?

  Yes, that's right.

• 1:05:07Ezra Klein?

  That is his self conception.

• 1:05:08Zack Beauchamp?

  It's not true, right? It's, it's, it doesn't stand to the test of, you know, what he's actually done. And in part because his diagnosis is really unfair. If you look at the history of American liberalism or the American left, the new left of the 1960s, the Maoist radicals he's talking about did not win. They did not win the war of ideas on the left, as he assumes that they did. But I think that if we're talking about what can happen next, it is possible that what happens next is years of chaos. One interesting parallel I heard when I was talking to Luken Way, actually, was Nepal, where you had a bunch of different factions who had totally, totally divergent ideas about the constitutional order, who would win elections and that there'd be radical policy shifts for years. And so it was years of chaos. That happening in the US, I think, is really a distinct possibility.

• 1:05:51Zack Beauchamp?

  It's also possible that we get a consolidated competitive authoritarian regime. Again, this whole conversation, I've not been ruling it out, just saying I think it's less likely. But I think if we're to get onto the good path, right? We need to consider what it would take to rebuild a Ralzian overlapping consensus on liberal democratic positions in the 21st century. And I don't have the answer here. I'm not sitting here like, I can tell you how to save liberalism. But I think the task should be stated clearly in this opportunity, this interregnum, as you describe that, if Trumpism is failing, as I think it is, that creates a possibility for a liberal revival.

• 1:06:26Ezra Klein?

  When you're working through the question of in which direction is this going? You said you don't love the checkmark approach. But we all need our our markers along the path. What are you watching? What if it went one way would leave you somewhat more comforted that the system at a core level is holding, even as Trump is scoring victories? And what if it happened would make you think the system is breaking? And we are on this path that when you look back at it, you'll realize we were losing things we cannot easily rebuild.

• 1:06:57Speaker 02

  Well, one thing that a lot of people in Hungary were saying to me during the piece and then after the piece came out is one downside of talking about autocracy and strong men and all this stuff is that people often use it as an excuse to turn their brains off and stop thinking creatively and stop trying to have a viable and vital opposition. So one is just how strong is the civil resistance? How strong is the private sector, public sector resistance? Another thing is, is the emergency sort of slow rolling and gradual enough that we start to just say, oh, well, he disappeared 10 people and eight of them were sent back. So the system is working. The system is holding.

• 1:07:40Speaker 02

  He merely got the universities to preemptively agree to some of his demands, not all of them. Therefore, the institutions are holding, right? So I would worry about a kind of shifting of goalposts in that sense. You know, an analogy I make in the piece is to climate change where you would think that at some point, when enough of Canada was on fire and enough of the smoke in Midtown Manhattan had reached the point where you couldn't go outside, everyone would look up and lock arms and say, the emergency is happening now. But in fact, that doesn't happen. And so the main thing I worry about in terms of if we're in a slow rolling democratic emergency is that we never have a chance to all get on the same page about it.

• 1:08:23Speaker 02

  And it continues being fractured and hybrid and weird. I mean, people I spoke to in Hungary, they all had different. Timelines for when they sort of came to emotionally accept that they no longer lived in a democracy. For some people, it was very early, but for a lot, it was 2015, 2016, 2020, 10 years in. When I talked to Steven Levitsky about Venezuela, he said opinion polls showed that most Venezuelans thought they lived in a democracy 10 years into the Chavez regime. So one thing I worry about is just the collective felt experience of the emergency could be here and we never really get it.

• 1:08:56Ezra Klein?

  And that's a place to end then. Also, a final question is what are some books you'd recommend to the audience? And Zach, why don't we begin with you?

• 1:09:02Zack Beauchamp?

  Well, I cheated a little bit because I started with political liberalism. And I think that if there is any way to get out of the crisis, we need to begin in part by starting with foundational principles, right? And political liberalism is, I think, a really important text here. I think another book, which I just started rereading, is Hannah Arendt's Eichmann in Jerusalem, not because it sort of answers these big picture questions about what political systems are like, but because it's a character portrait of one man's role in a vast machinery of horrifying political outcomes. And seeing what Eichmann was like and seeing the parallels between him and contemporary functionaries in competitive authoritarian regimes on a personal level, I found very

• 1:09:46Zack Beauchamp?

  revealing, even if these governments are vastly different from Nazi Germany. And I think for a third book, Matthew Rose's A World After Liberalism, to give you a sense of what the capacity for a post-liberal imaginary is like, what a world looks like when liberalism no longer is functioning, has been replaced for what it could be, what people want it to be in the future, what our order might be.

• 1:10:12Ezra Klein?

  And also, what I love about that book, and I do love that book, is that I, in a way, think liberalism never looks as inspiring as when viewed through the eyes of its critics. Like, look at what they think liberalism is, not the dry, technocratic, kind of exhausted thing it began to feel like, but what they understood it to be and its power to be is really interesting. Liberalism in its photo negative is fascinating. Andrew?

• 1:10:35Speaker 02

  So I am gonna break norms a little bit because this is a book that I just picked up and I'm not actually finished reading yet, but I mean, you know, we're in a post-norm reality now, so I figure, I just picked this up a couple of days ago, it's called Melting Point, and it's all primary sources. And it just sets you down in the middle of history. In this case, it's the history of the early days of Zionism. And the reason I bring it up in this context is there's one line that one of the characters says, which is, it's never inevitable at the time. And I just think in terms of putting one foot in the other, seeing what is in front of one's nose, I think that's something we know intellectually. We don't know how the end of the story is written, but it's something we need to remind ourselves what it feels like. Another one also in that vein is actually a film, I'm Still Here, the Brazilian film.

• 1:11:20Speaker 02

  They're six or seven years into a military regime, a military junta, at the point that the film starts, and yet their life feels very hybrid. It feels very liminal. They're going to the beach and playing volleyball and their life is actually kind of beautiful. And then comes the knock on the door. And so, again, I'm not saying we are going to have a military coup in America. I'm just saying that the felt sense of it is very unpredictable at the time that you're living. You kind of want to shout at the screen, like, don't you know you're six years into a military dictatorship? But they kind of don't, or they don't know what the informal rules of that dictatorship are, even though they're in the middle of it. And then last, I would bring up The Constitutional Bind by Aziz Rana, which is a really big

• 1:12:02Speaker 02

  and challenging book, and I'm not sure I even understand or agree with all of its arguments. But I bring it up because one of the great book titles on this stuff is Astra Taylor's Democracy May Not Exist, But We'll Miss It When It's Gone, which is-

• 1:12:17Ezra Klein?

  Another great book and worth reading.

• 1:12:18Speaker 02

  Another great book and a really clever idea of this kind of paradox of we've never really had a perfect democracy, and yet there are parts of liberal democracy worth holding on to nonetheless. And I think Rana tries to do this with the Constitution. It's a book that's very, very critical of excessive veneration and worship of the Constitution, and yet he's able to hold on to why it's important to hold on to the parts of the Constitution that can still protect the vulnerable. And so, rather than sort of worshiping the status quo ante and saying it was all perfect before, we can hold on to what we want to preserve while also not fighting the last war.

• 1:12:55Ezra Klein?

  Zach Peacham, Andrew Marantz, thank you very much.

• 1:12:58Speaker 02

  Thank you. Thanks, this was great.

• 1:13:18Ezra Klein?

  This episode of The Ezra Klans Show is produced by Roland Hu and Jack McCordick. We have Factoring King by Michelle Harris. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show's production team also includes Marie Cassillon, Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith, Marina King, Jan Kobal, and Kristin Lynn. We have original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samiulski and Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie Rose Strasser.