Jim Caron on the Market Selloff and the Fed's Historic Adjustment

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. But it also raised its inflation outlook for 2025, and sees just two more cuts next year. The markets reacted violently to it, with the major measures posting their worst day in a long time. What's more, there was nowhere to hide. Bonds and gold also sold off, alongside equities. So what's going on now? And what does this mean for portfolio construction? On this episode, we speak with Jim Caron, chief investment officer of the Portfolio Solutions Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. We talked about why the market reacted as sharply as it did, and how to think about next year, given highly concentrated markets, uncertain macro, and the difficulty in finding diversifying instruments. Read More: Powell Says Future Cuts Would Require Fresh Inflation Progress Become a Bloomberg.com subscriber using our special intro offer at bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. You’ll get episodes of this podcast ad-free and exclusive access to our daily Odd Lots newsletter. Already a subscriber? Connect your account on the Bloomberg channel page in Apple Podcasts to listen ad-free. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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• 0:00Speaker 00

  Finance is increasingly being built on digital rails, but as the adoption of virtual assets, tokenization and stable coins grows, can regulation not only keep pace, but help accelerate it? Find out more later in the podcast.

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• 1:01Tracy Alloway?

  Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

• 1:05Joe Weisenthal?

  And I'm Joe Weisenthal.

• 1:06Tracy Alloway?

  Joe, look at the screen. That's painful.

• 1:10Joe Weisenthal?

  So if you're just tuning in right now, we are recording this. It is 4:21 PM on 12/18/2024. So we just had a Fed decision. They cut rates, but you know, they call it a hawkish cut because various reasons, which we'll get into. And stocks got clobbered. S and P ended down 2.95%. Again, we're doing this, we're recording this after the bell on Wednesday.

• 1:34Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah, I guess maybe we fix that breadth problem at a minimum. But yeah, everything is red. Bonds down too as well, which is kind of interesting to see them go in the same direction. All of which means we need to talk about markets. It's been a while since we've had like a chunky market discussion.

• 1:52Joe Weisenthal?

  It has been a while since we've just talked about markets. I mean, we sort of talked about them. We did an episode with the top strategist at Goldman recently. But what I would say, the sort of defining aspect of markets right now, and you hinted at them. Is how narrow this, you know, we've had extraordinary gains in equity markets in 2024, but the gains have become incredibly narrow. So basically, if you looked outside of anything that isn't AI chips, crypto and quantum computing, things have been sputtering for a while. A lot was really riding on a handful of sort of hot momentum names. You sort of wondered how long that could last. And again, if you look at the NASDAQ as of right now, up 29% on the year. Dow Jones, as we're talking about 10 straight days,

• 2:36Joe Weisenthal?

  longest sell off since 1974.

• 2:38Tracy Alloway?

  That's a crazy stat.

• 2:39Joe Weisenthal?

  I know. It's a great stat, isn't it? Only up 12% for the year.

• 2:42Tracy Alloway?

  It's one of those days where we get to trot out all these superlatives because everything's moving all at once. But we need to talk about why this is happening, how long it might last and what it means for next year, obviously. And we do have the perfect guests to be talking to. We are speaking with Jim Karen, the Chief Investment Officer of the Multi-Asset Portfolio Solutions Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. It's quite a title. Jim, welcome to the show.

• 3:07Speaker 04

  Thank you. Thank you for having me.

• 3:08Tracy Alloway?

  So let's start with the basics. You know, Joe described it as a sort of hawkish cut. Was that your takeaway as well?

• 3:15Speaker 04

  Well, yeah, I mean, I would say that it was even more than that. So for example, we have to put this into context, right? So today, December, the Fed meeting, we have to go back to the September Fed meeting. That's when the Fed basically laid out the plan that they were on a mission to cut interest rates, that the terminal policy rate, that they were on a mission to get down towards a 3% Fed funds rate, possibly even lower than that. Today, they reverse course to, to an extent that they actually, if when we look at their dot plots, that they actually raised the dots by about 50 basis points across the board. Let me say that again. They raised the dots by 50 basis points across

• 3:59Speaker 04

  the board. And the dots are really just an estimation of what many of the, of the Fed governors are thinking, the voting members on the Fed are actually thinking about policy going into the future. So instead of having about four or five rate cuts in 2025, now it's closer to like two rate cuts in 2025. So they've cut that in half. This is probably, I've been doing this for 32 years. This is probably. One of the sharpest reversals, or I should say adjustments, not really a reversal, but an adjustment. The Fed's still cutting interest rates, so it's not a reversal to that extent. They're not going from cutting to hiking, but it is significant in that

• 4:41Speaker 04

  they've really made a big adjustment from just where they were three months ago. They typically are a little bit more longer term thinking, but I guess they're reacting to some of the inflation data, some of the equity market performance, and potentially even President -elect Donald Trump.

• 4:58Joe Weisenthal?

  It's a tricky moment. You know, there's a good summary, I'm just going to read it real quickly from the Bloomberg T-Live blog from Enda Curran. You know, he says there are a few different needles in this press conference to thread, explaining why disinflation remains on track, but why they will slow their cuts, explaining why the job market is not a source of inflation, even though it's strong, explaining why they are thinking about Trump's new policies yet, even though they don't know the specifics. These are all tricky questions. It occurs to me, I was thinking about late 2018, when we had a very intense sell-off at the time, but they was kind of simple. Powell had said, oh, we're a long way from neutral, we're starting to get this sell-off at the end of the year. All they had to do was say, we're actually not going to hike as much as we thought. There really are a lot of crosswinds right now.

• 5:41Speaker 04

  Yeah, there are. And I think that comment on the jobs market is really what the key is. Because, look, you can make the argument, you can basically say that, wait a minute, inflation's coming down, but it's really kind of stalling out at this point. It's making some progress lower, but not a lot. So that might be a concern. You could potentially look at the equity markets and say, well, equity markets have done pretty, you know, pretty, pretty well. Credit markets, credit spreads have been very, very tight, so financial conditions are, are very easy. So why would the Fed continue to cut interest rates in this environment, albeit at a slower pace? And I think the answer is actually in the jobs market.

• 6:21Speaker 04

  So my suspicion is that the jobs market is actually much weaker than what the published data is suggesting. Now, that's an outlier view because I can't back that up with the data because, look, I'm not the BLS. I don't have the information, all the information. You're Jim Carrey. But what I do know is that the QCEW data, which is a quarterly census of employment and wages, that data is a longer term series of jobs that are created. And what it's been showing over the past 18 months is that on a monthly basis, there's been significant downward revisions to the non-farm payroll data that gets released every single month.

• 7:01Speaker 04

  So I think the Fed believes that the, that the jobs data is actually, or the job environment is actually weaker than what's actually being stated by the, you know, by the economic statistics. It'll eventually come out into the future. And what they're worried about is, is an accelerated rise in the unemployment rate, which they call reflexivity, which could create a more severe downturn. So why are they still cutting interest rates is really an exercise in risk management. They'd rather get closer to their neutral policy rate at this stage because it might avoid them having to move faster later.

• 7:39Tracy Alloway?

  But then what does that mean for the inflation outlook? Because I, you know, I hear weaker job numbers and maybe the official data is hiding some weakness. And we have seen those big revisions that you just talked about. But on the other side, you know, inflation's still very much stubbornly above the 2% target.

• 7:58Speaker 04

  Yeah, look, it's a great question. So really, it's a trade off. It's a trade off of basically saying that they are willing to tolerate slightly higher inflation above target. They're willing to tolerate it stalling, not rising, but stalling out right now just to make sure that the jobs market will be hopefully a bit stronger going forward. Because still, what they're looking for in their forecasts are about 4.2% unemployment rates. That's, that's a pretty low rate. That's where we are right now. They don't have a lot of room for error. So I would say that as long as inflation doesn't start to move higher, that they're going to continue on a slow path and pace of, of, of rate cuts.

• 8:41Speaker 04

  And they're going to be laser focused on that labor market.

• 8:46Joe Weisenthal?

  The real thing that we all noticed, Tracy mentioned it, is just that big move in the equity markets. But as we talked about, you know, there's been this like, I would hate to be a portfolio manager. I would hate to, even in an up year, because I'm only beating the market if I were more concentrated in tech than the market, which is already heavily concentrated in tech. And if I were a portfolio manager, I'd probably consider myself to be a very intelligent, intellectual person, and I would swim away from the crowd. So I probably was not overly invested in tech. And so I'm in this situation, which is middle of December, and the only thing that's doing well up until this century today has been tech. Talk to us just about the dynamics and how tricky that is for an investor here in mid-December 2024.

• 9:29Speaker 04

  Yeah, this really gets to the heart of portfolio management. So in many of the portfolios that we manage, we come across this risk a lot. We call it concentration risk. So what you're referring to is that it's a very narrow breadth, meaning that there's several tech names, big, big names that are out there that have really been responsible for driving a lot of the performance this year. So if you want to have a more diversified portfolio, which is a good thing to do, what that meant is that you actually slightly underperformed the market because the tech sector and those, and those, and those seven names, the magnificent seven, as we call them, have actually done really, really well. So what has, though, started to happen, and I think will happen, and this is what our

• 10:08Speaker 04

  view is going into 2025, is we're starting to look away from those big mag seven names. We're not going underweight. We're going more neutral weight, like those top 10 performers. But we're starting to broaden out, and we're starting to go into more of the mid-cap sectors. So when we look at mid-cap, mid-cap is, is an area that we're looking at PE multiples that are around 16 or 17 versus the 22 or 23 forward PEs that the, that, you know, that the index sits at around now. These are companies that you know, these are companies, you know, anywhere between 5 billion and 20 billion in, in, in market cap that have better earnings potential. And, and essentially, especially in the new administration, that

• 10:52Speaker 04

  is seemingly more business friendly, if you get some deregulation. This can also feed down to the mid-cap sectors that get better access to capital, cheaper access to capital that were maybe underbanked and can also lead to better performance there as well as the cyclicality of the economy, meaning that we're not forecasting a recession in 2025. As long as there's some decent growth, we think that the mid-cap sector will actually do better. So that diversification may start to pay dividends going forward.

• 11:23Tracy Alloway?

  Why didn't it this year, though? Because markets, we are told, ad nauseam, are always forward-looking. Presumably, they could see this positive mid-cap environment coming. But if you look at the performance so far this year, I think the S and P 400 is up, well, this was before the big drop today, but it was up something like 16% versus like the 27% jump in the S and P 500.

• 11:45Speaker 04

  Yeah, why didn't it happen this year? That's a great question. And the one-word answer is earnings. Effectively, when we talk about the magnificent seven and we talk about those great performers, they also had great earnings. And really, the earnings growth rate was down to those magnificent few stocks that were out there. And that's what really stood out this year. So they've earned the title of being magnificent just through their earnings. The earnings, though, have been in much more of a lagged space in the mid-cap sector. So for example, if you look at the S and P 500, that index is going to have a very, very large weighting towards those large-cap tech stocks. When you look at the S and P 400 or the S and P 600, those indices are going to have a

• 12:30Speaker 04

  more diversified weighting towards the mid-cap sectors. If you look at the earnings trend of the S and P 500 over the past two years, it's been straight up. It's been absolutely magnificent. But if you look at the earnings trend in the S and P 400 or the S and P 600, it would look like the economy was in a mild recession or a slowdown. It's been very, very flatlined. So what we think is that as these multiples and as the earnings growth rates for these bigger tech stocks have really reached maturity at this point, that there's going to be a shift and a reallocation into these better earning potential sectors and stocks in the market.

• 13:23Speaker 00

  What's next for virtual assets? I'm Jacob Rees, host of Economy Scale, a series exploring growth in key global sectors. And in this episode, we're diving into the digital forces shaping finance. Sean McHugh from Dubai-based Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority has this to say.

• 13:39Speaker 05

  We're seeing a lot of institutional players come in, digital asset dedicated hedge funds, high-frequency traders and that sort of thing, and folks who service institutional clients.

• 13:48Speaker 00

  As more capital enters the market, adaptive regulation is likely to become increasingly key. Reese Merrick of Ripple says.

• 13:55Speaker 06

  A lot of regulators globally would like to keep the industry at arm's length. That's the opposite here. I think also what you'll find is that regulation and frameworks can come out, but some of them are maybe a slight iteration on some 80-year-old policy and not actually in line with what the technology can do and offer. And again, that's very different in Dubai.

• 14:15Speaker 00

  Listen to the full episode wherever you get your podcasts. This series is brought to you by Bloomberg Media Studios and the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism.

• 14:24Speaker 01

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• 15:24Joe Weisenthal?

  Over the years, you know, there are these hot names for baskets of stocks. These days, it's the Mag 7. You know, the old days used to be, you know, there was the dot com stocks. There was the Nifty 50. There were the radio stocks in the 1920s. Things going. First of all, has there ever been a historical parallel to what we see in the Mag 7 of such big companies also putting up such big year-over-year EPS growth numbers?

• 15:49Speaker 04

  The answer is not really. It is. It is a pretty rare event to see this type of deviation or just distinction of a handful of stocks really performing so well relative to their peers for this long of a period.

• 16:04Joe Weisenthal?

  And what's going to happen in 20? Why do we? Why do more people seem to think that in 2025, something is going to pivot on this?

• 16:12Speaker 04

  You know, it's really not that people are turning negative on these, on these, on these Mag 7 stocks as we're talking about it. It's just that when you look at their earnings growth rates, it is starting to, and we've seen that this in the recent, you know, fourth quarter and sorry, third quarter earnings, and you'll probably see in the fourth quarter earnings too, is that what you've started to see is that the earnings growth rate is now starting to flatline. So as I was saying earlier, what made these stocks magnificent was that their growth rates were magnificent. If their growth rate is just average, well, then I'm not willing to pay a 30PE, a high multiple for these things anymore. And as long as, as long as you believe their earnings growth rate will be fantastic,

• 16:56Speaker 04

  well, then yes, maybe, you know, maybe a 30PE multiple for many of these stocks is worth it. But if, if it just turns out that it's more of a flat, flatter trajectory in their growth rate, I mean, still a good, solid, you know, growth rate, but, but nothing magnificent, you're not going to pay those high valuations and the markets are going to turn towards these other sectors that have been left behind.

• 17:16Tracy Alloway?

  So a bunch of the outperformance from, you know, the Mag 7 stocks, the big tech stocks has come as a result of enthusiasm around AI. And we have seen this bifurcation in the market where it seems like anything that is attached to AI or chips or something like that has seen this massive outperformance. And then everything else is sort of doing fine, but kind of left in the dust relatively. Is there a moment, and would it be next year, where you would assume that like some of the productivity gains from AI would eventually leach into smaller companies or companies that are not directly at the sort of forefront of that technology?

• 17:54Speaker 04

  This is the big opportunity. This is a big opportunity going forward. So what AI effectively can do is it can wring out inefficiencies in many sectors of the market that are more inefficient. Like, let's take healthcare, for example. The healthcare sector is doing very poorly this year and even last year. I mean, historically, very, very poorly. This is a segment of the market that we think that AI can bring in a lot of efficiencies, whether it's on the healthcare side. We have to be very, very, very, very careful because sometimes you bring in pharma and big pharma with this, and that's not exactly what I'm talking about. But essentially, you know, more in the medical services, you know, segments of this, if

• 18:37Speaker 04

  you're very specific and if you're very active in how you manage this and you're a stock picker and not just building in a big index with just a bunch of pharmaceutical names, you can actually do pretty well. You know, other areas like materials, industrials, you know, these are other areas that, you know, a little bit far afield from healthcare, but still can get the benefits of some of the AI technologies coming in. And what you're going to find is that more and more brick and mortar types of companies are going to start to incorporate it. The impact of AI is to really bring in higher productivity, which is higher growth with lower inflation, into sectors that are relatively inefficient. So people look at like tech and they look at like financials. Yes, absolutely. But you know what?

• 19:20Speaker 04

  Financial companies are already pretty efficient just by definition. I mean, they're financial companies and that's what it effectively operates on. Tech is the engine that creates a lot of these things, but again, a lot of that is in the price. So we have to start to move to areas that have been the laggards that we think that there could be some technology gains that can really drive the earnings cycle.

• 19:41Joe Weisenthal?

  So one of the things that comes up a lot of times when we talk about multi-asset portfolios is that really, the only thing, I mean, yeah, you could maybe diverse away from big tech into medium tech, or medium tech into small cap tech, but there's been no juice in EM, there's been no juice in, you know, Europe, there's no juice really even in treasuries, they haven't done anything to even hedge you on a day like December 18th, 2024. What is the role for non-US equity right now in a multi-asset portfolio?

• 20:15Speaker 04

  So, so non-US equity, and many people will-

• 20:18Joe Weisenthal?

  And no, or non-equity at all. So not, so international equity-

• 20:21Speaker 04

  Or fixed income-

• 20:21Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, or anything.

• 20:22Speaker 04

  Okay, okay. Well, let's start with international equity, first of all, and let's start with Europe. Europe is really a large-cap value play. And what has large-cap value done? Not so well, right? Because the growth sectors and the tech sectors have done really, really well. So I would say that the, that the role that international equity plays as a large-cap value style of looking at the markets is, it's really more of, it's more of a stabilizer. So it's a diversifier in that when you typically have these downturns in markets, those large-cap value segments actually outperform, they do better than the higher beta growth sectors in the marketplace. So, so there is a positive cash flow there, there are dividends there,

• 21:07Speaker 04

  you know, there is, there are some opportunities. We can move to places like Japan, Japanese equities, one of my favorite markets. So, so here we are, we have some inflation, inflation is going to drive earnings, and I think the inflation is sustainable and durable in Japan. Plus, you have changes to corporate governance, it's becoming much more dividend-friendly, shareholder-friendly, buybacks, all of the various components there. Pension funds are turning into less savings plans, which is fixed income, and more into investment plans, which is more equity. And if the world is going to onshore, particularly in the US, you know, Japan is very, very well-leveraged to large-scale capex. So I think there's a lot of things that are pointing in the direction to, you know, to Japanese equities in the long

• 21:51Speaker 04

  term. I know we've had three bad decades, but I think that's-

• 21:54Joe Weisenthal?

  This is the decade.

• 21:55Speaker 04

  This is the decade. This is the decade. That's, that's going to happen. Let's turn to fixed income. One thing that you said- Right in the beginning of this podcast is that there's fixed income and equity, there's no place to hide, right? If we look at the screens today, everything's red, bonds and equities. When the bond, when the equity markets go down 2% or 3% like they're doing today, right after the Fed, you would expect to get some safe harbor from bonds. Bonds should definitely do well typically, but they're not. And this is the big issue with asset allocation going forward, is that the correlation of returns between fixed income and equities is very high. It's at multi-decade highs. What that means is that if the correlation of returns are high between bonds and stocks,

• 22:39Speaker 04

  that means it's hard to have a diversified portfolios, right? It's hard to own stocks and bonds and that hopefully bonds bail you out or help you when the equity market turns lower. So essentially, what that means is that we all have to think very, very differently going forward because what's happened is that the markets become very complacent on the fact that from 1981 to 2021, we were in a 40-year bull market in fixed income. All you had to be is a passive investor, buy and hold, and you did really, really well. It diversified your portfolio perfectly. What if today, interest rates just move sideways? That would be a structural shift in the way that we think about a diversified portfolio. That means some years bonds do well, some years bonds don't. They correlate with equities many times and in many cases.

• 23:23Speaker 04

  So that would suggest that when we think about asset allocating across fixed income and equities in a multi-asset portfolio, and let's not forget about alternatives too, that now we have to think about being much more actively managed, particularly in fixed income, as opposed to passively, meaning by passive, meaning by active managers as opposed to passive. Same thing with equities. It's less going to be about the beta, it's less going to be, it's less going to be about multiple expansion in these mag seven, and it's going to be much more about sector rotations, much more about the alpha and picking sectors and even picking stocks. So again, more active management versus passive management is a big change.

• 24:03Speaker 04

  Alternatives, alternatives are another way to diversify your portfolio because essentially when we look at, these are longer Term investment profiles that typically aren't necessarily just trying to track the economic cycle like fixed income and equities do. They're really looking at valuations, mergers and acquisitions, LBOs. They're looking at a very, very different timeframe and your returns are coming from different areas. In other words, it's orthogonal to your stock and bond portfolio. And that's what creates a lot of the diversification. So going forward, you're going to have to mix alternatives into this multi asset sector. It's not just stocks and bonds.

• 24:43Tracy Alloway?

  Just out of curiosity, I mean, you are, I'm going to say your title one more time, even though it is a mouthful, Chief Investment Officer of the Multi Asset Portfolio Solutions Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. On a day like today, when bonds are going down, stocks are going down, it feels like just about everything is going down. Maybe private credit is doing okay because it's not mark to market on a daily basis. Yeah, there we go. There's your safe haven. What is a day like today actually like for you? Like, what are you doing other than here in the studio talking to us?

• 25:13Speaker 04

  Look, I'm excited about today. And I'll tell you why. And I'm not just saying that. Because we've been looking for a good entry point into the markets. We are not bearish going into 2025. We think the economic fundamentals are going to be good. Why is the Fed increasing, potentially not cutting interest rates as much? It's not because the economy is weakening. It's because I think the economy is stronger. So that should be a positive for equities. So when I look at equities today, and they're down almost 3% on the day, I'm pulling out my shopping list, right? You know, and I hope, you know, I'm checking it twice, and I'm going after all these things, all the Christmas references. But but effectively, this is a very interesting opportunity. The other thing, too, is that bond yields have spiked. You know, 10 year yields have gotten up to 4.5%.

• 25:56Speaker 04

  Well, guess what? That means as I look at my shopping list for equities, and I can look at this, and I can, I can increase my equity allocation, I can also buy bonds at a good yield to actually hedge that. So so this is actually, as long as we're in the context, as long as this is not the start of something bigger, where the Fed is now completely going to pivot, they're going to surprise the market and start hiking interest rates, which Not our forecast, not our base case, that all they're making is an adjustment. By the way, this adjustment that the Fed made, 100% in the price. Bond market was already anticipating this. This is not a surprise to the bond market.

• 26:33Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah, this, this actually confused me a little because when I saw the headlines, Joe and I were doing some stuff, but when I saw the headlines, it was like, okay, they cut and then two for next year, like, okay, that's pretty much what was expected. And then a little while later, you had the big reaction. It was like, what, how did the press conference go? What did they say?

• 26:51Joe Weisenthal?

  Tracy, I'm going to sell some stocks so I have some cash to buy the market right here. That's my plan during the 2025.

• 26:59Tracy Alloway?

  All right. All right. Well, Jim, I'm so glad that we wanted to have you on the show for a long time. And it just kind of happened to be today.

• 27:07Joe Weisenthal?

  Perfect timing, perfect guest, perfect timing.

• 27:09Tracy Alloway?

  Absolutely. Great timing. Thank you so much for coming on All Thoughts.

• 27:11Speaker 04

  Oh, thank you very much. It's an honor.

• 27:26Tracy Alloway?

  Joe, I feel better about my, my crazy buy like terribly inefficient European stocks thesis on the back of AI. Idea. That's, that's my big 2025 trade.

• 27:38Joe Weisenthal?

  I like that thesis that basically that, you know, some random chemical company in Germany that you've never heard of is going to be the big winner because they will be the users of AI to make their processes more streamlined and will thus benefit from the rotation to value and AI itself. Very intriguing, very intriguing.

• 27:58Tracy Alloway?

  I'm going to build that index. You'll all see. Uh, no, I thought that was great. I mean, truly the perfect guest for the perfect moment in time. And it is, it is kind of crazy. You know, you, you brought up that great point of how often we have seen in recent years, bonds and stocks moving in the same direction. And even on a day like today, that's a pretty big move in the S and P 500.

• 28:18Joe Weisenthal?

  Also, gold got hammered today. I don't know if, you know, the really.

• 28:22Tracy Alloway?

  Truly, there's no way to hide.

• 28:23Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, for real. There was really, let's see, how much did gold fall today? Gold was down 2.2%. Bitcoin got clabbered, it clobbered. It was like at 107,000 yesterday or something, down 4.9% on the day, all the other coins. Truly a day, the only line that's really going up in the entire world right now is BBDXY, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index. It is the, the Dollar Wrecking Ball, as they say.

• 28:49Tracy Alloway?

  America wins again.

• 28:50Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 28:50Tracy Alloway?

  All right. Shall we leave it there?

• 28:52Joe Weisenthal?

  Let's leave it there.

• 28:52Tracy Alloway?

  This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

• 28:58Joe Weisenthal?

  And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Follow our producers, Kermit Rodriguez, Ed Kermit, Armin Dashel Bennett, Dashbot, and Kell Brooks, at Kell Brooks. Thank you to our producer, Moses Andam. For more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com/oddlots, where we have transcripts, a blog, and a newsletter. And you can chat about all of these topics 24/7 in our Discord, discord.gg/oddlots.

• 29:21Tracy Alloway?

  And if you enjoy All Thoughts, if you like it when we do these markets episodes, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, in addition to getting our new daily newsletter, you can also listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

• 30:16Speaker 06

  Underdog already has team picks, player props, money lines, spreads, you name it, they got it. But apparently, somebody over there said, you know what's missing? Screaming like a maniac about a rookie card on your couch. And we love them for that. Because Underdog now has rips. You get a digital pack, starting at just five bucks. You check the live odds, see which grails you could pull, then rip it open to reveal a real, physical card. And the grails are no joke. They have cards up to $125,000 in value, and plenty to pull. From football and basketball to Pokémon. With new limited edition packs dropping regularly. Even cooler, you can decide to keep the card and Underdog will ship it straight to your home, or sell it back instantly at 100% ...of its fair market value.

• 31:00Speaker 06

  And the cash goes right in your account. No listing it online, no stranger lowballing you in the messages. Just rip, reveal, and cash out instantly. Or make some room on your shelf. Download Underdog and get in on the chase. Get five free rips packs when you deposit $5. Real rips, real cards, real cash. Only on Underdog. Unleash your dog. 18+, terms apply. Top grails are extremely rare.