Why Britain’s Economy Has Been Stuck For 20 Years

Ed Elson is joined by Paul Johnson to discuss why Keir Starmer stepped down as Prime Minister and what his resignation reveals about the deeper challenges facing the U. K. economy. Then, Brian Kersmanc breaks down how markets are responding to the latest developments in the U. S.-Iran negotiations and what they signal for oil prices. Finally, Ed explains why the U. K.'s struggles may offer a cautionary lesson for other economies. Paul Johnson is an economist and Provost of The Queen's College at Oxford. Brian Kersmanc is a Portfolio Manager at GQG Partners. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets Youtube Channel Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack Follow Scott on Instagram Send us your questions or comments by emailing [email protected] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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• 1:26Ed Elson?

  Welcome to Prof G Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is June 23rd. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell as tech giants declined. Google shares fell 5% after two top AI researchers left the company for rivals. Meanwhile, SpaceX's stock dropped 16% for its third straight day of losses, dropping to its lowest price since its IPO day. Meanwhile, the Dow rose on hopes for negotiations with Iran. The Russell 2000 closed above 3,000 for the first time ever. Oil fell and finally Treasury yields climbed.

• 2:05Ed Elson?

  Okay, what else is happening? The UK is about to get a new Prime Minister. Keir Starmer announced he will step down after losing the confidence of his own party. Andy Burnham, former mayor of Manchester, has emerged as his most likely successor and could assume the post by mid-July. Prime Minister Starmer's resignation comes almost 10 years after Britain's vote to leave the EU. A decade on the promise of faster growth has yet to materialise and the UK economy continues to struggle with sluggish productivity and a cost of living crisis. So what exactly went wrong for the UK economy? And how is it that the country is on its seventh Prime Minister in the span of 10 years?

• 2:49Ed Elson?

  Well, joining us to discuss this, we're speaking with Paul Johnson, economist and provost of the Queen's College at Oxford. Paul, thank you so much for joining us on Prof G Markets. Just to refresh our memories here, it was roughly two years ago that Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, won this election to become Prime Minister, and he won in a landslide against, of course, the backdrop of many, many years of Conservative leadership. And now he's stepping down. It feels like almost yesterday that we talked about him getting the position. So I guess the first question that I'd love to know the answer to, what has gone wrong?

• 3:30Speaker 06

  The Labour Party won an enormous majority, having been out of office for 14 years, and actually in 2019, looking like they might be out of office for another 14 years. So it was an amazing turnaround. It was a big, big victory a couple of years ago. But the Prime Minister lost, Keir Starmer, lost popularity very quickly, partly because the manifesto on which he ran didn't really reflect the decisions he was going to take as soon as he got into office. So he started doing... What some of us would argue are quite sensible things like um uh small reductions in some of the benefits that pensioners uh uh people over state pension age received. There's some very big tax rises that were introduced despite the fact his manifesto

• 4:15Speaker 06

  said that he wouldn't introduce big tax rises. And then there have been a series of missteps around personnel. Peter Mandelson turned out to have unhealthily close connections with Jeffrey Epstein. Uh there have been a series of other uh issues um with the Prime Minister's judgment, but he's become incredibly unpopular, probably more unpopular than it's easy to explain. He's a decent, hardworking, honourable man, but has really failed to connect with the electorate.

• 4:45Ed Elson?

  Just looking at previous um prime ministers, I mean, we we saw that when Rishi Sunak was coming to the end of his time, he was pretty unpopular too, or at least the Conservative Party was very unpopular. You had Liz Truss, which was obviously something as close to a disaster as you could get. At least I think that is sort of how she is remembered at this point. You had a lot of resentment towards Boris Johnson, especially coming out of Covid and all of his antics there. I mean, wh- when I look at the UK, and I live in the US now and I have done for some time, it seems as though every single leader is botching it in some way.

• 5:25Ed Elson?

  And I start to wonder if this is because these leaders are actually unqualified or not doing the right job, or if it's something more systemic. And coming off of the 10-year anniversary of Brexit, I wonder if these issues that are ailing the country maybe can't be solved in just one term from a prime minister.

• 5:46Speaker 06

  You're right. I mean, it's been a combination of the two. I think we've not had the world's greatest leaders, I think it would be fair to say, over the last 10 years, but they've also inherited a really, really difficult situation. Um the first couple trips up over Brexit and how to actually achieve that, then we had absolute chaos, as you say, with Liz Truss. Um part of the problem here is that the um between- Elections, the leaders of the, with the prime ministers are effectively elected by a very small number of people in their own political party and we got some slight, slightly strange outcome, I think it's fair to say, uh, with, um, with Liz Truss.

• 6:26Speaker 06

  But I think the overall story here is prime ministers are unpopular because people are not feeling well off. We've had now actually nearly two decades of really, really poor economic growth. Average earnings today are pretty much the same as they were twenty years ago. Now, that is, um, really unparalleled in British history for probably two hundred years, uh, and that's why people now talk about a cost of living crisis. Inflation in the UK has been higher than it's been in most other developed economies for quite a long time. Uh, and the result is essentially the electorate is really pretty fed up. Now, with a fed up electorate, we're getting fairly chaotic politics.

• 7:08Speaker 06

  But of course, chaotic politics makes it difficult, um, to produce the stable policies and the growth that might get you out of that spiral. So you get, you get a fed up electorate, you get chaotic politics, you get less growth and you get an even more fed up electorate. And I think that's the horrible spiral we're in at the moment.

• 7:27Ed Elson?

  What would you say are the biggest problems ailing the UK's economy at this point?

• 7:32Speaker 06

  In one sense, it's, it, it is that lack of growth. We've had very little in the way of productivity growth for a very long time. Uh, now the question is why that? Well, partly we were particularly badly affected by the financial crisis, got a very big financial sector, particularly in London. Uh, partly Brexit and the, um, uncertainty that happened after twenty sixteen. I think there's a general acceptance of that, uh, cut a few percentage points off growth. But I think a combination of that with some pretty poor policy choices, a very difficult planning system. It's very hard to build stuff here. Um, uh, there are certainly elements of our education system that could be better.

• 8:13Speaker 06

  We've got incredibly complicated tax system, um, uh, which is definitely creating, uh, problems for, um, for growth. I mean, it's worth saying, many European countries are struggling, we're just struggling more than most of the rest.

• 8:27Ed Elson?

  Just looking ahead, it appears that the next prime minister, if he isn't challenged, will be Andy Burnham. Odds of him being appointed as prime minister before July 18th are up to 55% on Calcey and up to 84% before August. What do we know about this guy, Andy Burnham? And what are perhaps his plans or what might he try to do in order to get the country out of what appears to be something of an economic mess?

• 8:59Speaker 06

  The straightforward answer is we don't know. And it's quite remarkable that it looks like, I mean, he's almost definitely going to become prime minister very quickly because Labour politicians are essentially, it looks like they're all going to back him. But they're backing him off the back of a sort of a general sense, I think, that he's a better politician than Keir Starmer, and a general sense that he might be a little bit more left wing because the Labour Party is probably a little bit to the left of what Keir Starmer has been doing. What he would actually do, he said very little. I mean, there's a bit of a joke, to be honest, over here, which is that he's changed his views a lot over the last 30 years. He's been in politics for a long time,

• 9:44Speaker 06

  and he's sort of moved from sort of the Blairite, sort of New Labour, sort of quite moderate Labour of the 2000s. He went quite a long way left in the 2010s. He's painted himself a picture as an independent mayor up in Manchester. He calls it a form of business-friendly socialism. How that is likely to play out on the national stage, we don't know. He's toyed with greater public control of some industries, but we don't know what that means. Highly unlikely to be full-scale nationalisation. He's gone back and forwards on what he thinks he might want to do

• 10:27Speaker 06

  to higher levels of taxes and so on, and also backing forwards a bit on whether he's going to Borrow more. So the only honest answer I can give you is I don't know what his economic policy is going to be, except that I think his instincts are somewhere to the left of the current government.

• 10:45Ed Elson?

  Is there any consensus at this point on what the policy should be going forward? I mean, you mentioned that he is more left leaning, maybe that would mean more government spending, although we know that the debt levels in the UK have gone kind of crazy in recent years. Or maybe there's a shift in the other direction. I mean, what is the economic path ahead for the UK? Does anyone agree?

• 11:10Speaker 06

  It depends on consensus among whom. I think there's a little bit of a consensus among technocrats, but we technocrats tend to have solutions that politicians find rather difficult to implement. So tax reform is quite difficult when your people aren't getting better off, because that will mean some people are left worse off by reforming the tax system. Making it much easier to build things is quite unpopular with people who live near the places that the roads or how you are going to get built. Spending more on investment, if that means spending less on welfare, for example, is also unpopular in the in the

• 11:51Speaker 06

  short term. So I think there among technocrats, there are some pretty well worn ideas about what you need to get growth. But politicians for a long time have shied away from doing those things because they appear to be electorally unpopular.

• 12:06Ed Elson?

  All right. Paul Johnson is an economist and provost of the Queen's College at Oxford. Paul, we really appreciate your time. Thank you.

• 12:13Speaker 06

  Thank you.

• 12:17Ed Elson?

  After the break, the Strait of Hormuz remains under pressure. And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

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• 13:55Ed Elson?

  We're back with Prof G Markets. It's now been six days since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, but not much has changed. Traffic in the straight is stalled and oil still hasn't left Iran. Representatives from both countries met in Switzerland yesterday to discuss a few key issues. Those included a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. In the meantime, the US Treasury Department granted Iran a 60 day license to sell oil in US dollars for the first time in over a decade. In exchange, JD Vance says Iran has agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back into the

• 14:39Ed Elson?

  country. Despite these talks, investors still have a lot. A lot of questions that are yet to be answered, namely, when will the Strait truly be open? To tell us how the market really views this deal, we're speaking with Brian Kuzmak, portfolio manager at GQG Partners. So Brian, thanks for joining us on the show. The US and Iran signed this memorandum of understanding last week. We all kind of thought maybe the war is over at this point, maybe the Strait of Hormuz will open. And then over the weekend, Iran says the Strait is actually closed. And the US doesn't really acknowledge that. Then there's some confusion. Now I guess it's open again, but not really.

• 15:20Ed Elson?

  I mean, from your seat, what is the status on the Strait of Hormuz? Can we say it's open or closed?

• 15:28Speaker 07

  We're actually fairly constructive on energy even before any of this started. And one of our thoughts were that, you know, we came into this year expecting that there would be a little bit of a supply glut in energy and crude oil specifically. It was our view that a lot of the consolidated base of the energy companies globally, especially the swing producers in the US, were actually slowing things down in terms of you saw rig counts coming down. You saw people sort of adjusting for that oversupply that was supposed to happen this year into next year. And you had some really high quality operators that are going to put up extremely strong earnings, even, you know, at a $60 a barrel sort of price tag. What you can definitively say is even if the Strait magically opened tomorrow, we did get everything logistically firing back on all cylinders, so to speak.

• 16:11Speaker 07

  You're seeing a situation where, you know, it's a probably an $80 plus, you know, environment, the glut is gone. So even now, when you kind of look back at the companies that you're talking about, like an Exxon, for example, that even if the price of oil stays at $65 a barrel, they're going to be able to do almost 20% total return, 13% in terms of EPS growth or in terms of a K growth over the next couple of years. That looks really attractive either way. To get to your question more directly, though, in terms of the straight being open or not, I think one of the things that we have seen, you know, come out of this is that, you know, Iran can talk about the closure of the straight. And there's almost this asymmetric impact of having that information because just the

• 16:53Speaker 07

  talk about, you know, closing the straight back down sends insurance prices through the roof. It talks about, you know, the, the shipping slowing down and folks not necessarily wanting to send freighters back into the straight regardless of how many are getting out at this point in time. So there's a lot of logistical challenges and I think ostensibly you could talk about supply being constrained for a bit longer than what we're, what we're sort of expecting with the market is priced in.

• 17:16Ed Elson?

  Yeah, the insurance point is, is an interesting one. And this to me is something that, I mean, markets appear to have been relatively optimistic about this entire situation, but it seems as though there is now increased uncertainty, whether or not the straight is, is open or closed, that it might be closed in the future, or that it might be closed tomorrow, or the next week, or that there might be a missile that is fired at a vessel nearby. I mean, the, the level of risk and the level of confusion and uncertainty around the straight seems to me to be now more elevated, which would make me think that the floor on the price of oil has just fundamentally been raised. I'd be interested to hear if

• 18:00Ed Elson?

  that is your view. And if so, what does that mean for asset prices beyond oil? What does that mean potentially for inflation in the U.S. And how could that affect the markets at large?

• 18:14Speaker 07

  Yeah, what I think is the case at this point is that you probably do have a higher floor. So number one, you took out that supply that we were talking about, and then the price of that oil permanently, you know, should be a little bit higher. There should be some level of risk premium, so to speak, that you have to sort of compensate for, for getting that oil out of the Persian Gulf. A lot of the energy companies, for example, that we talked to, when they go to contract ships, they're not necessarily sending ships in anytime soon. They're going to wait several months to, to wait to see if there's more clarity in terms of that. Maersk themselves, you know, talked about not necessarily changing their plans and sending ships back in. So there's a delay, there is a lag, and I think it'll be a long time before there is a true return to, to normalcy. So then the next question is, well, why is oil sitting at the price that it is right now? And I think

• 18:58Speaker 07

  that's a really interesting one, because with everything that's going on, you would expect you're taking almost a fifth of the world's energy out of capacity, so to speak, and locked in the straight, that energy prices should be substantially higher. Yet here we are, you know, sitting in the seventies, you know, almost eighty dollars a barrel in terms of energy. And what I think you're seeing is two things. Number one, you've offset a decent amount of that supply or that lack of supply through inventory draw. It's been well publicized, but what's interesting is even last week, we had a 17 million barrel draw off of both US inventories and the SPR. So you're getting sort of subsidized barrels, so to speak, that are working their way through the system. I was on top of, I believe it was 16 million barrels the week before, maybe 15 the week before that.

• 19:41Speaker 07

  So you're seeing this consistently coming through this level and magnitude that's offsetting whatever you would have gotten out of the straight in that sense. You've also seen China tap the brakes a little bit. They have massive oil reserves on their side, so they've slowed down on their imports. And they've drawn down their own finished products inventory. So I think that's causing that price to be a little bit lower. That combined with the fact that the shipping costs of going out there and sending this stuff through is so expensive that everybody's just kind of sitting on their hands. They're saying, okay, everybody keeps telling me this thing is going to be over in the next six weeks, next eight weeks, another month or two. So I'm going to wait for the price to be a little bit lower so I can go and refill those inventories and I'm just going to wait and draw them down in the meantime.

• 20:24Speaker 07

  It's kind of like that transitory argument and or the variable mortgage rate argument that people used to have in the day where I'm going to take the mortgage at the lower price now, even though it's variable, because I believe the rate's going to go down later. Well, that works unless it happens. So what if the straight actually is prolonged in terms of being closed or being constrained? Then you have to start buying these barrels at a higher price. And that's when you start seeing the physical prices coming back up when that inventory sort of hits those bottoms. And I think that thing that concerns us a little bit is when you start looking at those data, Cushing. For example, Cushing, Oklahoma, you're at essentially effective tank bottoms there. About 20 million barrels, you get any lower, you start getting rust and like the sludge and stuff in the bottom of the barrel coming through. So it's not really that usable below that level.

• 21:09Speaker 07

  I think about US gasoline inventories, I think we're at 214 million barrels right now. From what we've heard and seen, that's about 195 to 215 that you start hitting that operational minimum. Meaning that you get any less fuel in the tanks, then you start having Gas pumps with the plastic over them and any sort of disruption causes that to happen. So we're at pretty low levels right now and Trump even said this. He said, we'd be out of, you know, energy, be in a really bad situation in the next four weeks. If things didn't clarify themselves. So I think that's why you're seeing the, you know, the negotiations as hard as you're seeing happening and the concessions that are being made happening within the Iranian situation.

• 21:46Ed Elson?

  Yeah. In other words, the, the price that we're seeing, which is to be clear elevated, but not as elevated as you might think is largely because there are expectations among investors that soon enough they'll come down. So why would I pay a high price right now? Because they're at the expectation is that this will be over, which is, you know, optimistic. That's a level of expectation. That's a level of optimism that may or may not lost depending on what happens in these negotiations over the next few weeks. Just, I mean, to play this out, let's say the optimism fades. Let's say people decide, you know what? We haven't made real progress on this deal. We keep on hearing about a deal. This one was supposed to be like the real one.

• 22:30Ed Elson?

  And then if for whatever reason, it turns out to not be the real one. I think you can make an argument that it isn't. But if for whatever reason that happens, then suddenly we're dealing with another issue where the price could go up even higher. I'd be curious to get your, your views on inflation and as a result, interest rates. Because this seems to be the thing that most investors are divided on. Will interest rates rise within the year or will they not? It seems to be a coin flip at this point.

• 23:00Speaker 07

  Yeah. So I think one of the things that you can, you see already in terms of the higher, you know, fuel input costs, energy costs that we've seen up until this point is it is starting to have an impact on things. Now, it may be somewhat muted because we've only gone through one earnings cycle and you only had a partial impact of this stuff up until this point. But you look at some of the retailers that have come out, the Walmarts, the Costcos, even the, you know, the, the dollar stores and things like that. They've all talked about the fact that consumers are facing, you know, sharper sort of pricing and they're having to try to, you know, absorb some of that pricing on their behalf. Now they particularly get it. Benefit because consumers trade down to quote unquote inferior goods. They're going away from the more expensive place to shop and going there instead.

• 23:41Speaker 07

  So that's helping them, but in the grand scheme of things, that is sort of, you know, hurting, you know, that purchasing power, so to speak. Uh, you know, this was some of the industrial players, uh, and they're saying that they're going to have to start incorporating some of these higher transportation costs, diesel costs and things like that. A longer term basis, uh, over the next couple of quarters, if this doesn't rectify itself, uh, you even talked to like the shipping companies. Maersk, for example, said that shipping spot rates are up forty percent, uh, since the start of the straighter hormones closing. I mean, that literally filters into everything that we look at in terms of a global economy. Um, so I would argue that that does have upward pressure on inflation. You saw that in the PPI data, which was incredibly strong, uh, from, from a May standpoint.

• 24:20Speaker 07

  You're talking almost double digits from, from that standpoint, and that was on goods and services. So it's not just isolated to one spot. Uh, so I think this is actually starting to come through and I think what you're hearing from the markets is generally people are getting out of this mode of, okay, we need Fed cuts. Because the economy is maybe struggling, the economy seems to be doing okay despite all of this. But you are hearing is that, okay, there we've missed inflation for so long now. And here was Warsh had said more recently that they have very singular focus now on price stability. He made it very clear in terms of the comments that he had there. So if that's becoming more of a focus, how is that going to impact things? And I think that has large implications, especially in a market that is so one sided and lopsided on tech right now.

• 25:06Speaker 07

  And tech is generally extremely sensitive to interest rates in terms of the longer term valuation trends. But also they're going through massive debt raising, uh, at this point in time too. So that's going to be much more expensive for all this capital buildup.

• 25:18Ed Elson?

  Yeah, really, really interesting stuff. It seems like that's going to be sort of the decider for twenty twenty six, what happens with interest rates and we'll see. Brian Kozmak is Portfolio Manager at GQG Partners. Brian, we really appreciate your time. Thank you.

• 25:31Speaker 07

  Thanks for having me.

• 25:35Ed Elson?

  Let's wrap up this episode where we began. Another year, another Prime Minister for the UK. Britain will soon have its seventh Prime Minister in 10 years. One of the highest turnover rates in the world and the highest for the nation in nearly 200 years. And it's fitting that it should happen now on the 10 year anniversary of that fateful vote that led the UK to where it is today. I'm talking, of course, about Brexit. 10 years ago today, the people of Britain were faced with a choice. Either stay in the EU and maintain the free trade relationships that incentivize commerce and productivity, or leave, making trade more expensive and growth more difficult.

• 26:20Ed Elson?

  In the name of Britannia, the UK voted to leave. Sure, it would be complicated, but in the eyes of the voters, they were better off on their own. How wrong they turned out to be. 10 years on, almost 60% of Britain say they shouldn't have left the EU. Meanwhile, GDP per capita is as much as 8% lower than it would have been without Brexit, and business investment is as much as 18% lower. Now, why am I talking about all of this? Well, for one, I grew up in the UK, so I care about their issues. But more importantly, the same decision that ruined the UK economy, that destroyed the

• 27:01Ed Elson?

  nation's politics for possibly decades to come, that same dilemma is now playing out in America. More specifically, the dilemma of tariffs or no tariffs. And while the technical details are different from Brexit, the thrust of that policy is the same. Put up the barriers, reduce international trade, and do it all in the name of national pride. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, tariffs are America's Brexit. The preconditions were the same, the arguments are the same, and now we will see what the outcome will be. My guess is that it will be the same. The UK is a warning to the rest of the world.

• 27:44Ed Elson?

  It's a case study in how not to run a modern economy. We don't need think tanks, and we don't need white papers. We know how this goes. We know how it ends. All we have to do is look.

• 27:59Ed Elson?

  Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams, our research team is Dan Shalane, Isabella Kinsel, Kristin O'Donoghue, and Mia Silverio, and our social producer is Jake MacPherson. Thanks for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I will see you tomorrow.

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