Raging Moderates: What’s Trump’s Endgame in Ukraine?

Jessica and Tim Miller break down the biggest political moves of the week. Trump is making waves on the world stage, claiming a breakthrough in Ukraine talks with Putin—so what’s his real endgame? Back at home, he’s throwing a legal lifeline to NYC Mayor Eric Adams, but is that “help” actually a political liability? Plus, where do Anti-Trump Republicans stand in a party still dominated by him? Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov. Follow Tim Miller, @Timodc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration blog, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required. Compatibility and availability varies 18 plus.

• 0:27Speaker 01

  Hogging seats on a crowded train, not saying, excuse me, watching videos on your phone with no headphones in. Sometimes it feels like we don't know how to act anymore. What we have been seeing increasingly is people breaking rules. Why should I play by the rules if nobody else is going to do that for me? This week on Explain It To Me, How To Mind Your Manners. New episodes Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

• 0:58Jessica Tarlov?

  Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlov.

• 1:01Tim Miller?

  I'm Tim Miller.

• 1:01Jessica Tarlov?

  Tim, this is the banter section. How are you?

• 1:04Tim Miller?

  Hey, banter. I'm just happy to be in here for Scott. You know, I think that I'm going to be a downgrade in certain manners and upgrade in hair. You know, we'll see what the people think.

• 1:16Jessica Tarlov?

  We will see what the people think. I think they'll be excited to see you. They were super excited when you joined us, but we were together, all three of us.

• 1:22Tim Miller?

  It was fun. It's good. I mean, I'd rather be raging with you guys than, I don't, maybe you have a view on this. I think not raging with the Dems on the Hill. I don't, I'm not feeling a ton of raging. Yes.

• 1:33Jessica Tarlov?

  Democratic snoozing?

• 1:34Tim Miller?

  Yeah, I'd rather be raging with the moderates than snoozing with the prags.

• 1:38Jessica Tarlov?

  I mean, this is

• 1:39Tim Miller?

  Maybe that's unfair.

• 1:40Jessica Tarlov?

  Heavy for the banter section.

• 1:41Tim Miller?

  Oh, sorry.

• 1:42Jessica Tarlov?

  No, no, I'm good with it.

• 1:43Tim Miller?

  You want to talk about Mardi Gras instead?

• 1:44Jessica Tarlov?

  It's difficult times. No, I don't want to talk about. I mean, if you want to talk about Mardi Gras hiding in your house, we could do that, but. Do you really think that they're snoozing or we're not paying attention?

• 1:56Tim Miller?

  It's a good question. I think that they are doing a lot of stuff that people who are, who read Hill newsletters and who like care and who know a lot about what's happening in the federal government, I think they are seeing Democrats. I think that anyone who's a casual observer of politics is seeing only Donald Trump and Elon Musk and Travis and Taylor. I think that's like the material that they're getting. And so I don't know if they're snoozing so much as they're not yelling, you know, and I feel like they could probably benefit from some yelling that resonates outside of.

• 2:35Jessica Tarlov?

  I think resonate yelling is the trick for that one because I have seen some yelling and I have hated it.

• 2:41Tim Miller?

  Singing, singing.

• 2:43Jessica Tarlov?

  Singing, yelling.

• 2:44Tim Miller?

  I'm open to singing in the right kind of context, you know, I'm open to singing and chants, but, um, you know, maybe, maybe we could work on the, the language of the chants a little bit.

• 2:55Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, we're getting lapped by the YMCA. So you got to think about that.

• 2:58Tim Miller?

  We've given, I, the gays gave away YMCA.

• 3:01Jessica Tarlov?

  Well, you don't even want it back, right?

• 3:02Tim Miller?

  I know. I made it official. It was a long, it was, it was not a, you know, it was, it was not a battle in the culture war we expected, uh, but it was a battle that was thrust upon us. And I think for a moment during the Biden era, we had felt like we'd taken YMCA back from the MAGA's. And unfortunately, I, I think that is one L we just have to take. It's over now and the Village People and YMCA, despite the fact that that is a song about cruising in gay gyms, the MAGA's have taken it from us and I don't think we're ever going to get it back. It's unfortunate. I don't think you're going to hear a lot of YMCA, gay pride this year.

• 3:36Jessica Tarlov?

  No, probably not.

• 3:37Tim Miller?

  Abracadabra by Lady Gaga instead. I think you'll be hearing a lot of Abracadabra.

• 3:41Jessica Tarlov?

  It's a pretty good upgrade.

• 3:42Tim Miller?

  I think so.

• 3:43Jessica Tarlov?

  Did you watch any of the SNL 50 stuff?

• 3:46Tim Miller?

  I was in and out. I was watching White Lotus and I was, you know, podcast prepping. So I caught a little bit of it. I really liked a couple of the Eddie Murphy segments. Eddie Murphy being Tracy Morgan was hilarious. Eddie Murphy doing some borderline inappropriate prison rape jokes with Will Ferrell in like one of the very last segments. I also really liked. Those are my big takeaways.

• 4:10Jessica Tarlov?

  Prison rape is always a highlight. I said multiple times to my husband that I can't believe this show is happening. Like if it weren't the SNL 50, there's no way these jokes would have made it in. But I'm pretty sure everybody showed up and they were like, we are not playing by 2025 standards. We're playing by whatever year we were actually on the show. And it was, a lot of it was hilarious, but I was overwhelmed by Cher. I don't know if you saw these shots of like Kevin Costner losing his mind and Billy Crystal watching this 78 year old woman look like a 30 year old woman belting out, If I Could Turn Back Time, which I think the gays still

• 4:47Tim Miller?

  We still have.

• 4:47Jessica Tarlov?

  Have possession of.

• 4:48Tim Miller?

  I missed that clip though. So I will, I will immediately be going to the internet after this to watch that.

• 4:53Jessica Tarlov?

  To the internet. And now to the show. And I'm keeping us on time, which is not Scott Strong's suit. So.

• 4:58Tim Miller?

  How'd I do in the banter section?

• 5:00Jessica Tarlov?

  I think you did great. I don't know. We'll see. Okay. So in today's episode of Raging Moderates, we are discussing Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine, Trump's lifeline to Eric Adams, and the state of anti-Trump Republicans, your specialty. All right, let's get into it. Big moves on the world stage last week. Trump says he had a highly productive call with Vladimir Putin, claiming that they're now working closely on a Ukraine peace deal. He even floated the idea of a future sit down with Putin. This all came after Russia released American teacher Mark Fogel, which Trump called a quote, "sign of good faith." Meanwhile, Kiev is on edge after a drone strike hit Chernobyl just days after Zelensky asked the US for more aid. And in Europe, leaders are scrambling. An emergency summit

• 5:42Jessica Tarlov?

  is set for Monday. So that's today. So by tomorrow, you may have an update amid fears that Trump's outreach to Russia is leaving them isolated. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called it a once in a generation security moment. Vice President JD Vance warned that Russia could face economic and military pressure if it doesn't negotiate in good faith. But in Munich, he took aim at European leaders instead, claiming their real threat isn't Russia or China. It's their own policies on free speech and refusal to work with hard right parties in government. Back at home, not much better. The White House is clashing with the press again, this time banning an AP reporter from the Oval Office for refusing to call the Gulf of Mexico "the Gulf of America." The AP is now accusing the administration of violating the First Amendment.

• 6:25Jessica Tarlov?

  Let's talk Ukraine first. What do you think the game here is? I mean, you can start with Pete Hegseth's maiden voyage, which did not go well, and he's walking things back within 24 hours. But what do you think Rubio and Trump and Vance want for Ukraine?

• 6:44Tim Miller?

  Well, as a, I guess, cradle neocon, I don't know if the neocons exist anymore. I have a ton of thoughts about this. I, first, just really quick, because I think it's got lost, and I'm obsessed with the crypto element of everything that's happening. The hostage trade, or whatever you want to call it, Mark Vogel, very happy Vogel's back, that's great news. But what got missed was the person that got let out on our side, was like one of the original crypto scammers, who was running a massive crypto scam that allowed Russia to avert sanctions by paying for things using crypto rather than cash and going through the regular banking system.

• 7:25Tim Miller?

  I only say that just because everybody should just make a mental note of that, because I think that the crypto corruption that is coming over the next four years might end up being one of the biggest stories that happen.

• 7:39Jessica Tarlov?

  Bigger than the Trump coin. It's interesting.

• 7:41Tim Miller?

  Well, no, it's related. The Trump coin, it's all related, right? Like, I mean, Trump launches this coin.

• 7:46Jessica Tarlov?

  I think that that's how people can manage it. Well, they just say, okay, we know he's a grifter who does things like this, but it's so much bigger than that. And the trade wasn't publicized at all. It took days for anyone to know if we had to trade anything for Mark Vogel.

• 8:02Tim Miller?

  Yeah, for sure. And so, obviously, there are bad people getting traded, and all of these things, like Viktor Bout got traded during the Biden administration, and I'm happy Mark Vogel is home. So it's like less a commentary on the particular trade than just like, it's interesting where the priorities were. Like, the first Russian person out is this crypto scammer. Person doing the deal, Steve Witkoff, his son is business partners with the Trump kids on their crypto scam, right? So that's not a coincidence, all right? I'm not the always sunny guy putting yarn against the wall here. Like, it's a pretty direct connection, directly to Trump's pocket. So, anyway, the broader deal. I mean, like, the sad part about this is that just like, we appear to be on the side

• 8:43Tim Miller?

  of the bad guys. I mean, I think that JD did some tough talk, but what is happening is we have this meeting in Saudi that you referenced. The Ukrainians aren't even invited. Like, we're having a bilateral with the Russians who invaded Ukraine and who we are sanctioning currently to try to cut a deal that Ukraine isn't even at the table for. And Europe is having a separate, you know, the Europeans are having a separate meeting at the same time. As you mentioned, Kyrstormer, like, the UK is out there saying, we're going to put boots on the ground, if necessary, peacekeeping troops to support Ukraine. And so, like, in this moment, like, we're getting some mixed signals from the White House, but directionally,

• 9:24Tim Miller?

  most of the signals are that we're sympathetic to the invaders, to the autocrats, to the people that are, were attacking a free democratic country. Like, this, you know, whatever you thought bad about American foreign policy in the past, like, this is a, like, a massive shift. Like, this is not just about judgment call. It's like, it's the fact that it seems like that we're supporting, you know, the, the countries that are in conflict with what the American values have been in the post-World War II era. So, like, at the top level, like, that is the thing, to me, that's the most striking. And when you looked at these press conferences, both Hagseth and Trump, I can't remember if Vance was asked this, but definitely

• 10:06Tim Miller?

  Hagseth and Trump were asked, you know, as part of these negotiations, what are you asking Russia to give up? And neither of them could answer. Like, Hagseth gives, like, a two minutes of gobbledygook because, you know, that he couldn't come up with anything. And Trump starts attacking Europe during the answer to that question. And so, I just think that kind of tells you all you need to know.

• 10:26Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, I think there was something about shooting values and that you can't do that. And Pete's answer, I can't really get to calling him Secretary Hagseth yet. I'm still on, in Pete mode.

• 10:36Tim Miller?

  Are you and Pete pals? Did you, we guys, were you guys drinking buddies?

• 10:40Jessica Tarlov?

  No, not drinking buddies. We, we have socialized, but, uh, no comment. I, no, I totally agree with you. And one thing that's been sticking out to me is how quickly... Everybody has folded from who they were beforehand because at least I was holding on to the idea. I know, I know Mike Waltz really well, the National Security Advisor. We're in a foreign policy group together. Marco Rubio has been very clear about his foreign policy views for a long time. And I don't think any of, either of those two would have ever thought that they would be part of a deal that was going to essentially tell Ukraine, you have no future in NATO and you're never getting back your territory. I mean, even forgetting

• 11:24Jessica Tarlov?

  the pre 2014 lines, even from just a few years ago. And maybe that speaks to the awesome power of Trump. Maybe that speaks to the new realignment within the Republican Party. But I don't see anyone in positions of power now that are going to be holding on to traditional American views of foreign policy and our role in the world.

• 11:46Tim Miller?

  No, I mean, Rubio has been basically a full throated defender of the Trump push on this. And that pivot for him has been, you know, kind of happening gradually over time since 2016, when he was, you know, kind of the candidate that was running, you know, the most, maybe even more than Cheb, like the most W, like the most Bush compassionate conservatism like type platform of any of the candidates. And so, you know, no, who knows what, how things actually go. I guess it's better that Rubio is there in Saudi Arabia than some of the other potential people who could be there from the Trump orbit. Maybe there are things happening on the margins

• 12:28Tim Miller?

  that matter. And like you said, Waltz was a very traditional, you know, type of, you know, type of Republican, in the House as far as foreign policy is concerned. And I interviewed Tom Malinowski, the Democrat from New Jersey last week, who's, who's a pretty kind of hawkish Democrat. And so he was like, when I got to Congress, I was looking to Republicans that I could work with, like where we might have some overlap on foreign policy. And, and he was like, Waltz and Stefanik were the two people that I turned to. And, and he's like, they've, you know, he's like, Stefanik is totally, you know, gone native with the MAGA. And he's like, it appears like Waltz is, is, is doing the same. So, and we'll, we'll see.

• 13:11Tim Miller?

  How things shake out this week, but I, the signs are not positive and it's really a sign of kind of submission to the Trump worldview from all these folks.

• 13:19Jessica Tarlov?

  What do you think is the likelihood that Zelensky gets his way? So he was speaking at the Munich Security Council and he said, we need an armed forces of Europe. This is after J D Vance essentially took a flamethrower to our relationship with Europe in his speech. Clearly, Zelensky does not see us as the top partner opportunity for him going forward. Do you think Europe is really going to unify without us?

• 13:44Tim Miller?

  Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't see us as the top partner opportunity either if I was him. Yeah.

• 13:48Jessica Tarlov?

  No, I.

• 13:49Tim Miller?

  I, I think Europe will. I, I, I think it could be a positive outgrowth of like the, the Trump worldview, that Europe ends up, you know, stepping up their game on defense and, you know, takes more responsibility. And it's not like they, I don't want to say they're not taking any responsibility for their own defense, but, but actually, you know, sort of takes seriously the act that they might have to go it alone at some point. And you've seen this from people, from Europeans at the Munich Security Conference, leader NATO said something to this effect, which was pretty, Secretary General rather, which is pretty alarming. So I, I think that that's possibly positive, but like, okay, that has

• 14:31Tim Miller?

  potential massive negative ramifications for us, you know? I mean, I was, um, going for this. There was a, a woman who is a journalist in Ukraine, who, who, who, whose quote just really kind of dropped me in my feet over the weekend. Uh, she wrote, she said this, uh, her name is Anna Merlakina. She was from Lorient-Paul and like had to flee to Kiev. She said, "When you live in a world that is crumbling under your feet, the only thing that helps you survive is to believe in guidelines and civilized democratic countries that uphold values. When countries like the United States cease to be pillars, there is nothing to hope for." I mean, that is like, that is a jaw dropping quote from, from somebody over in Ukraine. And I just think that's reflective of how people in Europe are going to see us.

• 15:15Tim Miller?

  And then I, I just believe that there'll be negative ramifications through that down the line. We don't exactly know how or when, but you know, I think that Europe will kind of decide that they should be prepared to go it without us.

• 15:26Jessica Tarlov?

  Going back to, I guess, we, we got into ineffective Democrats very early on in the podcast, but I do, maybe just because I work in communication, I guess, that I always think that there was an opportunity to do better if we had messaged properly about this. And it doesn't feel like we have made the case. This is Democrats and Republicans, like obviously, you know, Mitch McConnell and the kind of more traditional set have been, you know, screaming from the rooftops at a, at a low pitch. He doesn't scream so loud anymore at 83, but have been trying to talk about the importance of keeping together the democratic world order and that you need to support countries that share our values.

• 16:06Jessica Tarlov?

  And it feels like that has just fallen on completely deaf ears and that people have moved to this world where it's what about me first and can't see the second order effects if we end up abandoning Ukraine. And so do you think there's anything we could have done or this storm, which is taking over the world, right? Was there any way to stop this?

• 16:29Tim Miller?

  On this one, I will, I'll let you make fun of the Democrats communications and I'll take responsibility for my people because I

• 16:35Jessica Tarlov?

  You do you.

• 16:35Tim Miller?

  I think possibly no because of Iraq, honestly. Like I, I do think that it was just such a debacle that there, you know, within the country, like there has just become an increased skepticism, or like hostility to the idea that we should be involved overseas in foreign conflicts. And I think it's very complicated to then say, okay, well, this is not Iraq, right? Like Ukraine is different. Like we don't have troops on the ground. We're not trying to do regime change. We're trying to defend an ally and that helps us because, you know, if Russia successfully overtakes Ukraine, that's going to demonstrate Weakness, you know, to the, you know, rules based order and that's could cause threats to us down the line.

• 17:20Tim Miller?

  Right. Like it's just, it's a complicated point to make, right? Especially in, in the face of, you know, really like pretty bipartisan increasingly like opposition to us playing this role in the world. And so to me, the obligation is then like, this is what Trump has unraveled is that there were a number of things that are not really popular among the whole country that leaders in both parties continued to do, such as USAID, because it was the right thing to do and because they were responsible leaders. Right. And sometimes that is, you know, required.

• 18:02Tim Miller?

  This is not ancient Greece. We don't, we don't have a direct democracy on purpose. Not everything should be decided based on 50% plus one vote, you know? Uh, if that is true, uh, I would have never gotten married, right? Like that was a, that was an opposite opposed vote until the Supreme Court did it, right? Like eventually sometimes leaders have to do things that are unpopular because they're the right thing to do. Maybe sometimes they get held accountable for that. Trump, because he doesn't care about any of that, doesn't like have really core values or empathy or care about, you know, the American idea, doesn't believe that, doesn't believe that exists. Only believes there are American interests, um, has wiped away all of that.

• 18:42Tim Miller?

  And so I don't know that the Democrats could have, um, you know, just by making their messaging better, you know, changed people's view of this or, you know, broadly America's role when it comes to aid. So, I mean, I think that you could probably give a few of them some lessons on how to make those arguments better. Having watched you on the five and having watched some of them, uh, but I felt, I don't know that it would have actually made the difference in this case.

• 19:09Jessica Tarlov?

  It's just such a big failure when you think about how core Biden made it to his reason for being. Right. I mean, part of it was I have to get you all through COVID and I can be America's grandpa. And I'm the most empathetic man you ever met, but it was also like this return to normalcy. And, you know, people's lived experience was just. So not commensurate with the world that he was talking about, that they were just like, F you, right? I'm out.

• 19:36Tim Miller?

  It was a failure and, and I don't, and I mean, obviously Biden's inability to deliver a message had ramifications. Like what, you know, in this case, was it, you know, was that the key difference? I don't know. But I, I mean, I think it was a problem across multiple verticals and it relates to the democratic stuff. Now it just, he was not, he was absent, right? And there was a moment in 2020 where I think people were so fucking sick of the news and Trump and COVID, like the idea that Biden wouldn't be in their lives every day was kind of, people were like, that's a good thing. There were at least some people out there that, that was an attractive. But like over time, as crises unfolded, as inflation happened, as the invasion of Ukraine happened, as, as 10-7 happened, you know, people need somebody that can talk to them, right? And to deliver a compelling

• 20:21Tim Miller?

  message and that can, you know, demonstrate leadership traits or demonstrate strength at least. And I, and I think that that was like, kind of missing from the last couple of years of the last administration.

• 20:33Jessica Tarlov?

  I would even say that the quality of the messaging wouldn't have mattered as much if it was happening as more frequently, that people actually just want to physically see you. And then their minds run wild. And obviously there are people who are feeding this that are like, oh, he's not here because he's dead, but he'll be awake at 2 o'clock and then he's going to die again.

• 20:52Tim Miller?

  I totally agree with that. See, I never compliment Trump. So just say what you want, but like, guy has been every, like, there was this thing on, on the left and like resistance world, like during the campaign that was like, Trump is just as old as Biden and Trump's, you know, brain is putting two and like the media, it's so unfair that the media is making the Biden age thing, uh, like the only thing. And it's like, I kept saying, I don't think that is true. Like Trump gives off crazy energy, not old energy. Like he just does. And since he's been in there, I thought, I didn't know. I thought it was an unknown. Like could, might, might Trump win and just be so happy that he's not in jail, that he's just going to golf, like go on the NASCAR track, which he did and like do fun stuff, do the fun stuff in the accoutrement of the presidency

• 21:34Tim Miller?

  and not do everything else. And that's been the opposite. Like he's given more. Conferences than anybody like dude is like I I lose track of all the press conferences he's done like I missed one on Friday. You know, but like he's talking to media all the time. And I'm like, that is how to do it in the modern media age. Like, and I think that that is something that those of us who oppose him could could learn from.

• 21:58Jessica Tarlov?

  Yes, be everywhere all the time, even if they don't like you in their feed. I have this conversation constantly with people. I'm like, oh, but the engagement is so mean. And they're like, but it's engagement. That's what Trump understands, like all the hate comments. They're still thinking about you. You're still living. What did they say like rent free in your head? I want to talk to you about the AP, but just really quickly. Did you, I shouldn't say, did you make anything because it obviously is a big deal about the State Department taking down the statement that they that we do not support Taiwanese independence. And like, that feels like it's flying in the face of the way that we're moving with Russia, because obviously that's China's red line. That feels like signature Rubio to me, who's such a big China hawk.

• 22:42Jessica Tarlov?

  Do you think anything's going to come of this or?

• 22:45Tim Miller?

  Maybe I'm wrong about this, but I kind of just see Taiwan going the same path as Ukraine, right? Where there is some resistance inside the administration that like wants, you know, wants us to be stronger in that case. And that there's some resistance among Republicans on the Hill, resistance, but some views among Republicans on the Hill. And in the administration, they're more hawkish on Taiwan than Trump's itself. But Trump was asked about Taiwan at one of his 100 press conferences we were just talking about recently. And he goes on a rant about how they've been stealing our jobs and how, you know, jobs for the chips need to be coming back to America. And I I just, if you just looked at the tone of his comments, it didn't sound like the tone of somebody that's ready to put American defense power on the line to protect Taiwan.

• 23:31Tim Miller?

  And I just don't see how a Trump Vance administration, you know, who has just laid the groundwork with their followers that they only care about us first, they only care about American interests first. We shouldn't care about what's happening on the other side of the globe. I if if a if a congregation happened with China and Taiwan, I just don't know how they can go to their supporters and be like, oh, yeah. No, actually, we need to put in a couple hundred billion here or God forbid troops or ships or whatever I like. I don't see it. Marco might be trying to fool himself into thinking that Trump sees China differently because it's a bigger threat, but I, I think that if push came to shove, we'd see pretty much the same thing we see from him on Ukraine.

• 24:13Jessica Tarlov?

  All right. So we've got a rogue Rubio moment.

• 24:16Tim Miller?

  That's, that's how I see it. And I think Trump likes that actually too, by the way. I will say this. I think Trump doesn't mind if people are confused, you know, like his, his, he is not.

• 24:24Jessica Tarlov?

  He benefits from us being confused.

• 24:26Tim Miller?

  Yeah, right. And so I think it's, I, I don't think that like he's like mad at Marco over this. I think that he's like, well, you know, we'll keep them on their toes. Like that's part of Trump's mindset. And so my point is just like, if push comes to shove, I, I, I don't, if I'm Xi, I'm like, these guys aren't gonna go to bat over Taiwan. That would be the bet I'd be making.

• 24:45Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah. Like let them put whatever they want on their silly website about cooperation with Taiwan. Okay. Um, moving on to something else, Ed, I, I want to talk about the AP getting banned. So they were kicked out of the press briefings and then they weren't allowed, a photographer and a reporter weren't allowed on the presidential plane. And there was a big, I shouldn't, it feels so lame to say there was a big explainer because it wasn't even like a real piece of journalism. But I got a nifty newsletter from Axios talking about the kind of history of this administration's objections to the AP. And basically they're mad that the AP's stylebook has used terms that they hate too liberally,

• 25:28Jessica Tarlov?

  like gender, DEI, inclusivity, et cetera. I'm old enough to remember when the other news stations stood with Fox News when the Obama administration wasn't going to let them in to do a pool briefing with a representative from the administration and basically ABC, NBC, CBS. They all said, if Fox can't do it, then we're not doing it. And then they let them in begrudgingly, but it doesn't feel like that moment is happening at all. Like everyone is bemoaning the fact that the AP is being excluded, but no one is doing anything about it. And I mean, this feels. Like a pretty obvious, we A, don't know what the First Amendment means and B, we don't care and we're running this like the Wild West.

• 26:11Tim Miller?

  Yeah, I mean, the asymmetry is just so obvious. It's almost like, you know, it's a dog bites man to even mention it. But like, yeah, I mean, look, so in part, I actually would be defensive of the other mainstream outlets, like, because I think that if ABC and NBC and CBS said, we're going to boycott in solidarity with AP, I think, I feel like the Trump administration would be like, okay, peace, you know? Yeah. So it's kind of like the conservative outlets need to do it, right? Like, and they're not going to. So I don't, you know, I mean, that's like the situation. And I think everybody should just be aware of like, what time it is and what's, what's happening out there. As far as like the more interesting part of this, and obviously there's the First Amendment threat here. But to me

• 26:52Tim Miller?

  is how all in these guys are going on like, you know, patriot, what I call patriotic correctness? Like, you know, and it's not just enough to stop doing, you know, pro DEI activities. They, they need to snuff out anybody that is using words or language that they don't like, right? And, and to a, to a preposterous extent, right? Like the idea that like, everybody has to use the new name of the gulf that they just changed one minute ago, like, you know, or else they're going to be banned is ridiculous, right? Like, and in some ways, it's ridiculous. It's some of the most extreme things that you see like on the far left on

• 27:37Tim Miller?

  PC, like demanding that people, you know, use, you know, use Latinx or whatever, right? And so I do wonder if it's going to backfire on them eventually. I don't, are people really for this? Like, it feels, it feels very mockable. So obviously it's serious, but I do think they are like very much being responsive to something that only like a tiny group of far right trolls who are super online actually care about. And I don't know if that's like a path to long-term success for the right.

• 28:10Jessica Tarlov?

  No, I, they definitely just want to get in as many kind of gloating laps. Early on, I think that they know that it just gets more and more complicated. And certainly as we head into special elections and the midterms and things like that, which hopefully Democrats will perform better than we did.

• 28:27Tim Miller?

  That's interesting. So you do think that's conscious, like they're like, hey, you know, this isn't going to last forever. This like gloating honeymoon. And so we want to like rub their face and shit as for as long as possible. Like, and there's like a little bit of that.

• 28:40Jessica Tarlov?

  I think they can look to past administrations and say, okay, you know, your first two years are when you can actually get things done, right? They have control of everything. They're definitely trying it on, right? To the largest extent possible, you know, let's ram through four and a half trillion in tax cuts. Like, let's try to cut all of these entitlement programs. Now, they realize that they're not going to get their wish list of all of it. But they are at a moment where they're owning the culture. And so I feel like they're just taking advantage and saying, okay, well, if we have ingratiated ourselves to a segment of the American population that wouldn't have given us their time at all four, eight years ago, let's really go for it. And you can tell that also in the attitude that Caroline Levitt, the press secretary, has about everything.

• 29:24Jessica Tarlov?

  I mean, she's so haughty and arrogant in the way that she delivers everything, which I, listen, I wish that I had more of that in me. I wish I didn't have such a terrible case of imposter syndrome. But like to be 27 years old and to walk up there with that, you know.

• 29:41Tim Miller?

  It's a fact. It's the Gulf of America. This is a fact.

• 29:44Jessica Tarlov?

  Right. Or like, every man in Gaza is wearing a condom that we paid for. Well, actually, no, no, that's not true. In Mozambique, there are some condoms that got sent, you know, and it's, it's the Trump bravado. That if you say it a certain way, there's at least a good amount of people that are going to believe you. And I think that they're living for the moment, right? It's like a YOLO administration at this point. And until there are real consequences, I think they're going to go for it with everything. I mean, the AP is calling Mount Denali, Mount McKinley right now. I mean, they're doing half of the crazy thing.

• 30:23Tim Miller?

  I wonder, is yours, is that true? Like your comment about how they're owning the culture now? I can't figure this out. Like, is that actually true? Or does it just kind of feel like it's true? And or and maybe that's a distinction without a.

• 30:37Jessica Tarlov?

  Would I be able to?

• 30:38Tim Miller?

  Yeah, maybe that's a distinction without a difference, right? But I don't, I'm kind of like. Is it just political obsessives who feel this way? I mean, did people's lives really just change? Like, did they change like their mindset on this sort of stuff like overnight? I don't know.

• 30:53Jessica Tarlov?

  Well, they're owning infrequent voters.

• 30:57Tim Miller?

  That's true.

• 30:58Jessica Tarlov?

  That are 18 to 40, right? That and those are real culture vultures. Those are people that are listening to podcasts. Those are people who are concerned about all of the dyes in our food. Those are people who are picking schools for their kids to go to and are disenchanted with the public school system and wanting to get away from feeling like they have to use gender pronouns on their email signatures. I mean, these are real things that folks are thinking about. And so I don't know if owning the culture is the right way to put it because I still don't think that Kid Rock is cooler than Jay-Z. That will just never happen.

• 31:36Tim Miller?

  But you can tell we're millennials with those references. That's good.

• 31:39Jessica Tarlov?

  I know, I can't. I can't fight the 40 and I'm 41 in a couple of weeks. No, but Kid Rock was on Bill Maher on Friday night and I found the interview really interesting. I mean, it was first of all, I had forgotten, I guess, that he played Obama's inauguration in 08. And he was like, it's not as if I liked Obama then. You just show up and you do this. But he was essentially mocking us for like liberal leaning people and you new, new to the side of the fence, but for freaking out about everything all the time. And I, I do think that they are owning the culture by making it clear that majority of people feel like it's just not that serious.

• 32:20Jessica Tarlov?

  And part of that is a mistake on Democrats' part by not making it feel like it's that serious in practical ways, not like the sky is actually going to fall, but like this is the way that your checkbook is going to be affected. This is where your kid is going to be affected. But like, people are walking around just saying, I don't think politics is that serious. And the Republican side seems like that right now.

• 32:41Tim Miller?

  Yeah. It's interesting. Um, I mean, that goes against, you know, my entire like, like everything in my body wants to reject that, like, you know, because I'm like, things are serious, things matter, um, actually, um, but I do, um, it makes me curious about the Fetterman, um, kind of model because he, that like, that's kind of what he's doing basically, which is like mocking. Like progressives who are like hyperventilating while like just basically voting with the Democrats all the time. And I don't think that every Democrat should act like that. But I do wonder if there is some potential efficacy to having a couple of Democrats out there who have more of a slacker energy to try to break through.

• 33:26Jessica Tarlov?

  All right, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

• 33:31Scott Galloway?

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• 36:41Scott Galloway?

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• 36:52Jessica Tarlov?

  Welcome back. Mayor Eric Adams just got a legal lifeline, but it came from the most controversial figure in New York politics: Donald Trump. The Trump administration's Justice Department dropped Adams's corruption case, but in a city where Trump remains deeply unpopular, that reprieve could be more of a political liability than a win. Now Adams is facing accusations of being in Trump's pocket, especially after appearing alongside Trump's borders czar, Tom Homan, and making moves that align with the president's immigration policies. Meanwhile, the case's dismissal has sparked a crisis inside Trump's DOJ, a mass resignation of prosecutors, including one who accused DOJ leaders of looking for a "fool" to take the fall. Have you been following that? Probably not as closely as me.

• 37:33Tim Miller?

  Uh, maybe I was supposed to as you, but I have been following it because here's why I'm into it. Hagan Scott, and who you is the guy you mentioned, who said that, uh, I expect you'll eventually find someone who's enough of a fool or a coward to file your file your motion. This guy is like special forces dude who

• 37:49Jessica Tarlov?

  Three brown stars?

• 37:50Tim Miller?

  I think two, maybe two, whatever. I'll give him a third for this if he if he only has two. Uh, but who clerked for, so I believe he was Kavanaugh and Roberts and then, um, Danielle Sosun, uh, who's the original person who wrote the letter to Emile Bove. She was Scalia, Scalia Clark, uh, both, I mean, uh, both like Scott in his letter kind of subtly implies that he likes Trump. I I forget exactly how he put it, but he was like, I could kind of see the perspective. He's like, some people might be quitting because they're really upset with this administration. Like, that's not me. And I kind of see how a businessman could think this was a good deal. It's just not legal. Like, was that's like, that's TLDR summary of his letter.

• 38:30Tim Miller?

  And so the fact that it's these two people who are Fed Soc folks who are stepping out.

• 38:38Jessica Tarlov?

  That's Federalist Society for, maybe reaching moderates audiences are not, uh, as in it as the Bulwark. Yeah, who are like Fed Soc, yeah.

• 38:46Tim Miller?

  You know, uh, so they're like conservative legal folks who are just saying no, who are like standing up and saying, I'm not going to go along with this. And I think that's pretty powerful. And it comes at a time when I don't know, at least maybe, maybe just me, or maybe just the people are like thirsting for people to be showing a little bit more backbone right now. And so I was, I've, that's kind of why I've been following it less on like the legal nerd side, but just more on this is kind of how you do it as far as standing up to illiberal actions.

• 39:15Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, I've been, I, I was into it. I had been feeling starved, I guess, for some old school intellectual resistance, I guess. Not people out there with a sign, uh, you know, like hands off my whatever, but

• 39:30Tim Miller?

  I'm okay with those signs too. Yeah, sure.

• 39:32Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, I like them, but they're not getting us really anywhere at this point. Um, but it feels like what? They're doing is because it's a harbinger of bad things to come. So the Adams case itself, or at least what we know about it, you would expect more, I guess, in the indictment. He definitely broke the law, and I thought that Sassoon's letter was, you know, very specific about that. And that does matter to people that are career prosecutors who take the law very seriously. But to me, I felt a little bit of a, if you think that we're just going to roll over for all of this, from like the lighter fare of this, which obviously has very real implications for New York City politics and national politics even, but that they're scared of what this

• 40:17Jessica Tarlov?

  administration is going to be asking them to do. Like Pam Bondi will see us all as folks that are ready to just line up and rubber stamp whatever is to come, and they can't help the fact, even though Bondi was one of the lesser controversial nominees, which just speaks to how crazy the set of nominees were. But, you know, Pam Bondi was all in on the 2020 election, was rigged out there front and center on that. And to me, it felt like a little bit of a cry for help, or at least a signal of, like, we can't be there for whatever they are going to try, because they've spent so much time bemoaning quote unquote "lawfare." And it is very clear that they are looking to weaponize everything back for their own

• 41:02Jessica Tarlov?

  benefit.

• 41:03Tim Miller?

  Yeah. And we also had a US attorney down here in Louisiana who quit. I think that there are a lot of those warnings happening. And this guy, the character that I've been watching closely in this thing is this, I kind of hate saying his name, Emile Bovee. Kind of want to call him like Amel Bove. I don't know. It's kind of a pretentious for a MAGA. But anyway, Bovee was the person who, in this Sassoon letter, I think the most powerful thing was like in the first footnote, where she was like, someone was taking notes in the meeting where they told us that they were going to, you know, about the deal on the prosecution, and he collected the notes at the end of the meeting, which is like no note taking, which, you know, feels very fascistic, though also kind of dumb.

• 41:47Tim Miller?

  So, and I guess a lot of times fascism is dumb, like dumb bat. It's like, okay, well, the notes are gone, but people can still talk.

• 41:52Jessica Tarlov?

  I prefer it when it's dumb, because at least we can talk about it, that he took away the notes.

• 41:55Tim Miller?

  Yeah. And so, but he's the same guy. Who is at the center of the FBI firings, right? And there was that whistleblower, and if you saw that over the weekend where, you know, they were saying that Cash Patel lied during his confirmation hearing because, um, you know, the note taking in that meeting, the FBI meeting said that Bove had said that Cash Patel had, and Stephen Miller were the ones that were asking for this. So they have this like kind of henchmen in at the DOJ. And so I, I think that it is pretty, it is good that, you know, because there's always this debate, right? Like, should people like this stay? Would we rather have Hagans Scott in there than whoever replaces them?

• 42:36Tim Miller?

  And, and I think that in my view, it's actually better for these folks to, you know, uh, kick up a cloud of dust here and like draw attention to this person. So people can watch it. So it's not like happening, you know, behind the scenes and cloak and dagger.

• 42:52Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, though you do need good people to stay. I said a couple of weeks ago that we're, it's going to require thousands of Mike Pensys to make it through whatever is to come over the course of the next four years. So I agree with you and I think it's also matters that this is happening so early on. I can't believe we're only in the beginning of the fourth week of this. Um, but we are going to need people who are interested in the rule of law in a traditional sense, not in the rule of law, just because I said so. And Napoleonic slash Trump terms, uh, to reference his weekend tweeting, which did not feel like him at all. I don't know. That felt more Musk.

• 43:31Tim Miller?

  Here's the thing that made me think it might be him. I was reading an article and that quote is actually from a movie called Waterloo. It's not from Napoleon and it's like.

• 43:42Jessica Tarlov?

  It's accredited.

• 43:43Tim Miller?

  I guess it's like maybe apocryphal, but like the, the direct quote is from Waterloo, the movie. And the movie was in 1970. And that to me like feels like it could be a Trump cultural reference. Like he might've watched a 1970s movie about Napoleon. Like that feels like the thing he might've watched, but maybe not. I don't know. That was the only, because I agreed with you initially, it did feel Musk-y, but, um.

• 44:07Jessica Tarlov?

  Or somebody, or Stephen Miller, like someone got control of the, uh, of the phone for a second. Um, I don't want to belabor that Adam stuff that much, but part of the deal. That I guess he's made, which he claims he hasn't made a deal with the administration, but it's quite obvious since he had to sit on the Fox and Friends couch and be humiliated by Tom Homan a couple of days ago. But is that they'll be easing, or he's going to try to ease sanctuary city laws as it applies to Rikers. And the way that sanctuary city policy works in New York is that ICE can't be near the prisons. And the reason that that's the case is not necessarily that we don't want criminals

• 44:52Jessica Tarlov?

  to be deported, but it's because they could pick up people who haven't actually been convicted yet, people who have just been charged and not gone through their due process, which they're entitled to. Do you have any views, kind of thinking about the macro issue that I think liberals are finding themselves in as having been way too lax about illegal migration and even too lax on people who are here illegally and then committing violent crimes on how we should be approaching sanctuary policy?

• 45:23Tim Miller?

  So my viewpoint, which is I think different from some of, from like, kind of the conventional wisdom among Democratic strategists, is that like, maybe, is it like, in February of 2025, like, the right thing to do is to fight these guys tooth and nail and to figure out what happened and figure out with how things shake out. And in 2026 summer, you can decide to be strategic and like, figure out which issues are the right ones for the, for the electorate. Like, we don't fucking know what's gonna happen over the next year, so just fight him and try to make him fail. My exception to that is, like, on some of these, like, there are a couple of policies with these Democrats, like, obviously got out way too far to the left away from public

• 46:08Tim Miller?

  opinion. And I, and I just, I do think sanctuary cities is one of them. I'm, I, so, I was, like, the compassionate conservative Bush Republican. I was, I'm like, about as liberal on immigration as you can get. Like, I was part of the group of Republicans that the Republican voters wanted to overthrow, and like, the kind of McCain view of the world of immigration. So, like, I am extremely... Sympathetic to immigrants and the plight of immigrants who are fleeing, you know, oppression or fleeing whatever and want to come to America. That's what America is about. Like that said, like some of the sanctuary, you know, like some of the sanctuary city stuff, it just got overboard. It was just kind of crazy like, and I understand there might be like a specific reason why it makes

• 46:53Tim Miller?

  sense to not have ICE in the prisons. But I just think that like fighting over whether prisoner illegal migrants who committed crimes in this country should be deported is like maybe one of the fights I would say, I think you can take a pass on this one if you're Democrats. So that would be, that's my view on that.

• 47:19Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, it's definitely the way that a lot of Democrats feel. You already referenced John Fetterman, where you'd be like, why are you wasting my time with this? Right? This is, you're in a privileged position that you got to be here illegally in the first place. And you can just see the next iteration of the Charlemagne ad about giving transgender surgeries for undocumented people in prison, being written about something like this. It doesn't change the fact that the city council has to be the ones to revise sanctuary city laws. But I tend to agree with you that kicking up a massive fuss about it probably just allows Trump and co. to continue to say that we're so out of step with where culture is.

• 48:02Tim Miller?

  Here's the other thing, they are going to overstep on immigration. So here's the area where I would say Democrats do not like, don't need to be over cautious. But like, people do not want Dreamers to be deported. Right? Like, people don't want that. People don't want like people who are in this country, you know, whose parents brought them to this country when they're kids, you know, to be deported or to be separated from their families. And there are already a couple of examples of like very sympathetic. Individuals who are being either detained by ICE, like there was like a guy in Newark who is a veteran who is detained by ICE. And so I think that there are going to be ways to fight immigrate, you know, immigration

• 48:45Tim Miller?

  from a humanitarian standpoint that are beneficial for Democrats and they should choose those fights rather than fighting over whether prison deportations happen or not under the administration.

• 48:57Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, that leads me to something I've been thinking about in general about like where Democrats show up and stand up and amplifying stories like that on a local level versus in DC. I mean, DC unless, you know, unless you represent Virginia or Maryland, like I don't think any of this should be going on in DC. I think you need to be back with your people and talking about stories like that. There was another one in Milwaukee, which I talked about on the five, and rarely do my colleagues just shut up, but they were like, oh, my God, that happened, where they took in a toddler, a mom and a grandmother for speaking Spanish. And someone had to come with birth certificates. They were Puerto

• 49:37Jessica Tarlov?

  Rican to get them out of the detention center. And the idea of a two-year-old in a detention center for allegedly, you know, where we're going to be holding people that have committed violent crimes and were here illegally when they're Americans and did nothing but speak another language, seemed to hit the audience hard. So.

• 49:59Tim Miller?

  Yeah. And this is, to me, and this is why I would say, local is fine, but what you're doing is, I think, probably the most useful. Like on Fox and on conservative media platforms and on culturally conservative platforms, again, like people have this totally wrong view of what like the Manosphere podcasters think about all this stuff.

• 50:20Jessica Tarlov?

  They're like Bernie bros.

• 50:22Tim Miller?

  Yeah, like you give specific examples, like the ones you're giving, like they're 80% issues. Like people do not want, most people besides racists and like extreme, you know, far-right freaks do not want people detained for speaking Spanish in this country. Like that is not something that is popular, actually. And so if you can focus on a couple of those examples and bring them in to the lion's den, I think that is like a use, a much more useful.

• 50:51Tim Miller?

  Way to spend time than having a press conference on the Hill. I know Jared Moskowitz, I saw was on Fox over the weekend. I just think that like more is more on this, on this stuff.

• 51:00Jessica Tarlov?

  I obviously agree with you. And it's always great when I see others showing up, not even necessarily to get the clickbait that worked in 2016. You know how everything was just about owning the other side and there were those huge fights. Now it's like showing up and being reasonable makes even more of a difference because people's partisan lines have been completely scrambled. Right? You can't predict it anymore in the same way. And so if you show up like Jared Moskowitz did and you sound reasonable about immigration, you know, he was one of the first ones to say, let me in the Doge caucus, for instance. But then you hold the line about stuff that really matters and it gets amplified like that because he was on, you know, on primetime. They love it. They're gonna get the clip

• 51:44Jessica Tarlov?

  out into their ether. We'll get their clip out into our ether. And suddenly, you know, Jared Moskowitz is president.

• 51:49Tim Miller?

  Yeah. Well, it goes to God's ears. But yeah, no, the prime example of this that I saw recently was Zelensky did the Lex Friedman interview. Lex Friedman. And like, if you just look at the comments on Lex Friedman's YouTube, which is like, he is, he's like MAGA in the Musk way, right? Like, he is like contrarian or whatever. He's not like a far right. He's not like a social conservative. You know what I mean? Like, he's like a contrarian. So he's in that sort of ecosystem. And so it's like, that is a mostly anti-Ukraine ecosystem. Zelensky does the interview and like, there were a lot of people in the comments. So we're just kind of like, huh. Like, oh, I was expecting to hate him a lot more. Or he made a couple, you know, like, so anyway, it's worth doing that.

• 52:28Jessica Tarlov?

  Or even people with that interview in particular, who are big Lex Friedman people, but thought, like, he went too far in pushing him to say that Russia should get to keep territories that they obviously illegally took. I thought that was, even if it was just for that soundbite, that it was worth the three hours of Zelensky's time to do it. I want to get to kind of the future of the anti-Trump Republican faction. But quickly, are you pro Cuomo, anti Cuomo? Because he, did you see the ad he released? The Valentine's Day ad where he's with all of these older women? Mostly women of color talking about how tough it is right now for New Yorkers.

• 53:10Jessica Tarlov?

  But we can always find a way forward and that the opposite of hate. The four letter word that matters most is love. I think it was the phraseology.

• 53:18Tim Miller?

  I am, I'm anti Cuomo. I think that he handled COVID atrociously in addition to just all of his personal misdeeds. I maybe have some personal bias. I've got some friends who are in, who are in conflict with Andrew Cuomo, let's just say.

• 53:37Tim Miller?

  And so I think he's kind of a creep. I will say though, like Democrats need more people that like, who are like Cuomo, who talk normal. And he talks Italian, but like you can tell he's being authentically himself. He doesn't talk like a fucking valedictorian kid that's trying to appease the bosses in a PowerPoint presentation. And I think that Democrats could learn from that. And I don't, you know, I don't, I'm no fan of his in particular, but I think that that is, people want it and I won't, I wouldn't be surprised if he's successful in the mayor's race.

• 54:16Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah, it's pretty crazy to think about, but the amount of normie Democrats that I know who don't like Cuomo for a whole host of reasons, whether it's, you know, the sexual harassment charges or even the management of COVID and lost people in nursing homes and just really wanted an apology for him that he couldn't get out there, just couldn't muster the strength to say, I would have done things a little bit differently, which I think would have gone a tremendously long way. They're like, I could use a competent gangster right now. Like the city is in shitty trouble at this point. I hate being on the subway. And he feels like when you look at Adams on the other side of this and you think, I'm

• 55:00Jessica Tarlov?

  not going to go for someone as progressive as like Scott Stringer, that he might be the answer.

• 55:07Jessica Tarlov?

  Woof, all right.

• 55:10Jessica Tarlov?

  One more break.

• 55:11Tim Miller?

  It's just depressing.

• 55:12Jessica Tarlov?

  It is a little depressing, but one more quick break. Stay with us.

• 55:19Speaker 00

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• 56:52Jessica Tarlov?

  Welcome back. Before we wrap, and we've already been touching on this a little bit, but I want to get into it more deeply with you. There aren't that many Republicans openly pushing back against Trump's agenda these days. Mitch McConnell, for instance, was the lone Republican to vote against confirming Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr. And Tim, you pointed out on the Bulwark that even the Wall Street Journal's editorial board, usually a pretty Trump-friendly, finally took a shot at his economic policies. What do you think is the future for the anti-Trump Republicans in a party that seems... Like they've given up a bit, besides an editorial or two.

• 57:28Tim Miller?

  Yeah, there's no future. Yeah, there's no future, there's no present. I felt, look, I felt this way for a while. I'll give you a little scoop. I don't know if this is a scoop. Anybody cares about me would care about this. Nobody else would. But like, I was planning on writing a book that was about, you know, that was the shorthand pitch for it was Trump is forever. That I just like, I felt like that the MAGA, that the Republican voters want Trump or something like it, right? Like whatever comes after Trump, if he ever goes away, you know, will obviously not be a carbon copy of him. Because he has like a lot of unique traits and eccentricities and like it's, you know, you've seen how hard it is to copy him at the local level

• 58:11Tim Miller?

  and how that has failed in other ways with, you know, Kari Lake and others. But, but directionally, like the idea that of America first, of fighting these culture war battles, of not caring about norms and institutions and, you know, not caring about like the traditional, you know, free markets and free people ethos of the eighties and nineties, two thousands Republicans, like all of that is gone, right? And it was already going to be gone, even if Kamala Harris had won. Because that's just what, that parties are just, parties are not actually permanent coherent ideological groups. They are a reflection of a group of people.

• 58:53Tim Miller?

  And that group of people can change over time and it might change them, it might change the nature of the party. And Trump has massively changed the makeup of the Republican Party. And as a result, that will be in his image for at least, you know, until the next realignment for probably a quarter century or something. So I just think that is what's happening. I think that there'll be individual fights on the, on the outskirts, right? Like you mentioned this Wall Street Journal article, which was an attack on him over tariffs and pushing for lower interest rates, given threats for inflation, you know? If we get into a more normal future in 2028 where Trump doesn't try to run again and like, you know, there's a primary, there will be some people who are like Trumpy or pro tariff. And there'll be some people who are more traditional free market conservative on trade.

• 59:38Tim Miller?

  And, and on some of those issues, you know, it won't always fall on the Trump side of the line. I think that there will still be skirmish, little skirmishes in the ideological coalition. But directionally, things are to Trump and I, and people, nobody is going to stand up to him, except for people like Mitch McConnell, who are already one foot out the door. And that's basically what we've seen for like a decade now.

• 1:00:02Jessica Tarlov?

  Do you have any idea about what happened during these confirmations to people like Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Todd Young in Indiana, or I should say from Indiana, who was really anti Tulsi, for instance, I mean, is it straight like doxing, threatening you with a primary? Like Bill Cassidy already voted to convict him. So I don't, this idea that he promised Cassidy to essentially RFK Junior to not be who he is. Right. And to say, you can be my dad and you can check in on me every day and make sure that I'm not going to do these things when even the CDC site already has information about the flu down. So obviously that's not going to hold up.

• 1:00:45Jessica Tarlov?

  Like, what level of threatening or trolling was going on to make people like this lay down and vote for every single one of these nominees?

• 1:00:58Tim Miller?

  Yeah. And the Joni Ernst thing with Hagseth was the, was really, you know, I think the test case, yeah, for this. I mean, I was in Iowa, so I worked in Iowa on a couple of campaigns. I was in Iowa, like during when all this was happening, it was like about, and I was like at an event with a lot of Republicans. And, and, you know, it was like in between when she had spoken out and when she had kind of folded, right? And there to a, to a person, I could not find a person at this event that thought she was going to hold the line eventually. And there were some very pro Joni people there, right? And, and to people who like her and wish she would have held the line, like across the board, MAGA to people who are like me, who are, who are lapsed. Everybody thought, no, because.

• 1:01:41Tim Miller?

  The voters wanted, you know, want Trump to get what he wants. Like, that's what they want. And so she was just getting totally bullied online, phone calls. And I think the other senators really saw that. I think in addition to that, I do think in these private meetings, Trump and then basically said to the nominees, just tell these people whatever they want to hear. Who cares? We'll figure it out on the back end. Right? Again, because these are not rigid ideologues. Like, it's, it's, that is not what Trump is. So I think that helped, um, you know, give a rationale to some of these senators to do the easy thing. And I also just, I, Jesse, I just fundamentally don't think anybody was going to actually stand up. Besides McConnell, who's one step out the door.

• 1:02:22Tim Miller?

  And Murkowski and Collins will choose their spots because they have kind of a different sort of brand. Everybody else, I was with Gates at a TP. I go to the TPUSA annual gathering every year to just kind of, well, you live in Fox world. I don't, I want to make sure I'm not in my little bubble, my little resistance, you know, former.

• 1:02:41Jessica Tarlov?

  Feels like a very unsafe place to test it out.

• 1:02:44Tim Miller?

  It's fine. No, no, no, it's fine. The types of people who go to those sorts of things are, uh, are the people you got to worry about are the people who are alone in their basement, getting radicalized, honestly, like people that show up to a gathering. I, at least I've found them to be relatively sociable. I had a few people shit talk me, but, but I never felt unsafe.

• 1:03:00Jessica Tarlov?

  They're not bad to your face ever. I've always found everyone is like, I feel so terrible that I've been calling you the C word online for three years. And I'm like, well, stop doing that. And I'm so nice. Do you want a picture?

• 1:03:11Tim Miller?

  That's hilarious. So anyway, I was with Gates and I was like, why did you drop? Like, I was like, because I think that you were going to get through. And Gates was like, well, John Curtis, the guy from Utah who replaced, uh, Mitt, told me, and I, I, I wasn't, it wasn't an interview, so I wasn't taping it. So I forget the exact line, but it was little, it was something like, I would sacrifice my children before I would confirm you. It was some like very ostentatious comment about, and so Gates was like, I didn't think, you know, it was clear I wasn't going to get through. And I said to him, I was like, eh, Curtis would have folded. And I like really think I'm right about that. Like, I do, I do think that there is a lot of behind the scenes people, you know, trying to use a little influence they can without creating any backlash.

• 1:03:55Tim Miller?

  Like, when push comes to shove, like, the voters are where their voters are. And so like, that is why you're not seeing anybody, like the Todd Youngs of the world actually stand up.

• 1:04:05Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah. Unpopular opinion, but. I don't think that you have to do everything that the voters want. Like, they picked a person who can also think for themselves, who broadly represents their interests, right, and understands their constituency, but can think for themselves. So if you pick, you know, one of 15 people that you don't think is unqualified for to kind of lay down your marker in the sand and say, "Your children will be vaccinated," or "We will not have someone who thinks Assad wasn't really that bad," that that might be good for you long term, but I'm also not running for public office.

• 1:04:42Tim Miller?

  That's a popular opinion, me. I say that to the Republicans I talk to all the time, and fewer and fewer of them actually want to talk to me, so, um, you know, maybe that's part of why my influence isn't working, but I'm like, you don't have to be me. Like, I'm not asking Republican senators or congressmen to troll Trump online, you know, to try to own him, you know, to like, fight everything. Like, there's a huge space between me and like, total submission. And it's just like, they've kind of decided to abandon that whole space. Like, there's just nobody that has decided to try to occupy that and succeed. And I think that's wrong. I think people could, I mean, Collins, I guess, is the example, is the example. Like, I don't really love Susan Collins, everything that she's done,

• 1:05:25Tim Miller?

  but she did manage to occupy that space in between total never Trumper and total Trump sycophant, and it worked for her. She was like, the only senator, well, this cycle a couple happened, but before, you know, during the first Trump, she was the only senator that won and went the opposite way as the state, um, you know, in 2016 and 2020.

• 1:05:44Jessica Tarlov?

  Yeah. You're saying that I wasted my dollars on Sarah Gideon?

• 1:05:48Tim Miller?

  Um, no, I think that was a

• 1:05:50Jessica Tarlov?

  Who was gonna win by 10?

• 1:05:51Tim Miller?

  That was a worthwhile use of dollars for Sarah Gideon. You might, I don't know if you gave any money to Jamie Arison, or that might have been a waste.

• 1:05:57Jessica Tarlov?

  No. I have a friend who is a doctor and loves politics but isn't in the day-to-day insanity. She'll send me like, a New York Times article the day after, and she'll be like, "Can you believe this?" And I'm like, "I need to talk to you about how fast the news cycle goes," but she'll regularly send me a link to various Democrats, and she goes, "Worth my money?" I'm like, "Well, how much money?" Like, if you want, if you want to be spreading $10 all over the place, uh, go ahead for it, but, uh, Amy McGrath is never gonna be the senator, um... That takes Mitch McConnell's seat. Okay, thank you so much for being here. That's it for this episode. Thank you for joining us, Tim and the Raging Moderates crew. Our producers are David Toledo and Chinene Onike.

• 1:06:41Jessica Tarlov?

  Our technical director is Drew Burrows. You can now find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday. That's right, its own feed. There you'll get exclusive interviews with smart voices in politics like our latest guest, Congressman Pat Ryan. Follow us wherever you get your podcasts. Also, follow Tim in all of Bulwark World. Thank you for being with us. Well, just me. Scott's not here, but he loves you from afar.

• 1:07:02Tim Miller?

  I loved it. Good to be here. We'll do John again soon. Peace.

• 1:07:05Jessica Tarlov?

  Bye.