Office Hours: Google vs. Airbnb, SPAC IPOs, Real Estate Investments, and Brick-and-Mortar Stores

Scott answers a question about Google’s dominance in the travel space, and how Airbnb manages to hold its own. He also shares his thoughts on how companies that go public via SPAC are perceived, why real estate is a solid investment, and why opening physical stores can be a powerful branding move — even for a tech company like Amazon. Music: https://www.davidcuttermusic.com / @dcuttermusic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Scott Galloway?

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• 1:27Scott Galloway?

  Welcome to the ProfGPod's Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to [email protected]. Again, that's [email protected]. First question.

• 1:44Speaker 03

  Hey Scott, this is James from Jasper and the Canadian Rockies. Unsurprisingly, given where I live, I'm in the tourism space. And knowing how well Airbnb has done thus far since going public, and knowing that TripAdvisor apparently is working on a subscription model, and knowing how well Expedia's stock has done over the last year up almost 100%. Why is it that I still think Google's gonna eat everybody's lunch and travel? Thanks.

• 2:07Scott Galloway?

  So James from Jasper in the Canadian Rockies. Dude, but my sense is you have it figured out. I just get the sense where you live is incredibly beautiful and you're really happy and balanced and hang out with dogs. And I don't know, have a really great relationship. I don't know what living in Jasper would do for your relationship, but I get the sense it's probably helpful. Anyways, good for you. So in the tourism space, uh, hands down, probably the biggest winner has been Google. If you look at the amount of shareholder value that's been added to Google, it's probably greater than the entire travel industry combined. Why? Because every travel company has had to enter into this downward spiral of buying keywords and PLAs.

• 2:46Scott Galloway?

  And basically Google has inserted themselves in between uh, any tourist and the end destination or the source. So at their core, a brand is shorthand for diligence. And that is when I used to go to London on business, I would either stay at the Four Seasons or the Mandarin Oriental. Why? Because A, first and foremost, someone else was paying and B, those brands always deliver a seven or an eight out of 10. And I didn't have the time and I didn't have the knowledge and I didn't have the domain insight to understand everything about hotels in London. And maybe pick something that was more relevant or appropriate for me. So I had to defer to the shorthand of the brand. And then, and then Google comes along and becomes a weapon of mass diligence, creating a bridge across the ocean of the unknown.

• 3:30Scott Galloway?

  And I go in and I type in London hotels and then it serves up a bunch of articles, or at least used to, but slowly but surely, slowly but surely. Google has figured out a way to insert not one, not two, but the entire first page is now ads or links to other places they can further monetize in the travel space. And the biggest marketing byline by far across the major travel companies, I don't care if it's JetBlue or, or the Sixth Sense's hotel chain. Which by the way, is an incredible hotel chain. Is how much money they have to spend on search and keywords. However, however, there is another, the one company that's broken out of this inexorable downward spiral, Airbnb. Airbnb was able to establish such a strong brand and such an incredible core

• 4:15Scott Galloway?

  of evangelists, specifically it's half a million strong hosts, that it's no longer, it's, if you will, released itself from the stranglehold of Google. And that is, if you look at organic searches on Google and you type in Orlando Airbnb and you type in Orlando Hilton, Orlando Four Seasons, Orlando Marriott, et cetera, all the search queries for every other travel brand don't add up to the number of queries of Orlando Airbnb. Nobody says, I got an Expedia in Jasper. They'll say, I got an Airbnb in Jasper and I'm going to look up James. Where's Jimmy in Jasper? Anyway, you get my point. So there is a disruptor here. And the reason why I went big for me anyways, in terms of

• 4:58Scott Galloway?

  Airbnb stock, was they're able to bust out of this. But, but I agree with you that Google is an enormous beneficiary of the travel space. Now, what's going to happen in the travel space? It's going to be a tale of two cities. Specifically, the travel industrial complex that services the business traveler is just going to get kicked in the groin over and over. Why? Because just as we're not going to go back to the offices often, we are not going to engage in as much business travel. Now, where will it be compensated and maybe even not only compensate, but make travel even bigger? Is that COVID-19 has done a couple of things. One, it's made us pause and think about priorities. Travel

• 5:41Scott Galloway?

  is a gift of the modern age. The number of people who could go to Europe from the US just 50 years ago was probably less than a 10th of a percent. Now it's likely realistically somewhere between 20 and 50%. Europe is within reach for a holiday. This is a wonderful thing. We are happiest as a species when we're emotion and surrounded by others. The things you will remember when you were older. Or one of the things you'll remember is that time you were with your family walking around MGM Universal, or when you were with your teenage boys walking around Rome. Those, those types of things, or hiking in Jasper with our cool guide, James.

• 6:25Scott Galloway?

  I don't know if that's what you do, James, but anyways, travel is just such an incredibly wonderful thing. It's going to become, I think, more in reach for people. People are going to spend more money on it. Covid has put a ton of money because of a $7 trillion stimulus in people's wallets. They're going to be saving more money because they're going to be working from home and they're going to spend it on resort travel. So Airbnb is already showing this. Fortune reported in April that Google searches for resorts and hotels were the highest levels in nearly 10 years. So what do we have here? I think Google continues to be a big winner. There are fewer and fewer organizations that have basically created their own internet. You know, there's Google, there's Amazon, and there's Facebook, and then everyone else is fighting over the 30, 20, 19, 18% of traffic online.

• 7:08Scott Galloway?

  And they can monetize that attention, and they will continue to do that in travel. I think Airbnb mostly has been able to bust out of that stranglehold, and you're going to see business travel, step change down, structural decline, but we're going to see much more money spent on what is a gift of the modern age, and that is your ability to travel with loved ones and be inspired by other great cultures and the wonder of the outside. I'm in Aspen right now. The great endorsement, I'm the only person that comes to Aspen and then spends the majority of his time indoors. Anyways, thanks for the question. Jasper, James from Jasper, next question.

• 7:46Speaker 04

  Hey Scott, Dor from Tel Aviv, Israel. I'm a 29-year-old MBA student, and your content truly impacts my professional and financial decisions. My question today, also as a young investor, is about a very hot trend globally and specifically here in Israel of acquisitions. Recently, we've been seeing a surge in Israeli mid-sized tech companies going public via spec. While the benefits of going public via SPAC is still in debate, I would like to ask about the day after the merge, the day after the private company gets listed. So how are these companies treated by the big institutional investors, the ones that really move the needle and create demand in the stock market?

• 8:31Speaker 04

  Are they treated like the traditional public companies, ones that have been listed through IPOs and direct listings? Or are they treated with suspicion due to the fact that they were listed via SPAC?

• 8:43Scott Galloway?

  Uh, thanks, Dora from Tel Aviv. Uh, thanks for the kind words. So SPAC IPOs are on a tear in 2021. Already they've surpassed last year's record within just the first half of this year, which by the way, last year was a record. There's been three hundred and sixty-two SPAC IPOs so far in 2021, with proceeds surpassing a hundred and eleven billion. Oh my gosh, 2020 saw a total of nearly two hundred and fifty SPAC IPOs with a total of just more than eighty-three billion. So think about it, just so far, um, you know, halfway through the year, we're at a hundred and eleven billion dollars. So your question was what happens kind of post the IPO? Generally speaking, the best IPOs, the companies that are kind of prepped,

• 9:25Scott Galloway?

  washed and ready, and the most desirable kind of unicorns go, are still going their traditional route. And that is they go through the traditional IPO industrial complex of JP Morgan and Goldman and B of A. And those organizations tend to attract the bluest, uh, chippists, if you will, or the blue chippist, bluest chip, uh, institutional investors that are hold for a long time. And typically, they will underprice, the kind of game is the following. Goldman underprices the IPO, uh, to please their institutional clients who are their bread and butter. And the company does endure some additional dilution. And that is it probably only needed to give up ten percent of the company,

• 10:07Scott Galloway?

  not twelve percent to raise a hundred million dollars or a billion, whatever it is. However, however. That additional 2% of dilution to have a successful IPO done through Goldman that pops creates a series of brand associations. One, it's Goldman taking you out and that's sort of like getting into the Tuck School of Business. It's not how you perform in school, it's the fact that you were selected by Tuck. It's the certification and the fact that you were selected by JP Morgan or Goldman to go public basically says to the whole world, this company is real. This company has vetted or passed through what is the finest filter of who gets into the public markets. It also is going to have likely right out of the gates, a better investor

• 10:47Scott Galloway?

  base and that is institutional clients. The investors in IPOs is becoming surprisingly consolidated and inert and 90% of the S and P 500 companies, there's three players and it's BlackRock, State Street, and there's one other that are almost always one of the two or three biggest shareholders. So, and Goldman and JP Morgan, those guys, those types of IPOs are sort of a green light for them to invest and hold long term. So, a company does want to ideally if it has the choice, get out through traditional IPO. Now, once it starts trading, it's really about the performance of the company. I think the

• 11:27Scott Galloway?

  the mechanism that got them public is kind of in its rear view mirror. So, Virgin Galactic got out via SPAC, but now I think that people don't really care that much about the mechanism through which it access the public markets. And one of the advantages of a SPAC is you can get public sooner. A lot of people would say the company doesn't need to incur the dilution because it's a more accurate pricing mechanism. The filter for SPACs is in the investment banks operating committee to decide whether they want to take it on as an IPO. And one of the things that that a SPAC offers is speed to market because they do all the SEC registration for you and get public, which increases or decreases the time to market. But the screen, if you will, the filter for SPACs now is the pipe market

• 12:10Scott Galloway?

  because typically a SPAC or a blank check company will raise 200 to 300 million dollars in equity. And if their target is bigger than that, which it always is, it needs some sort of debt financing. And it's the debt markets, specifically the pipe market, which is a public investment in private equity. It is the adult in the room and says, well, no, we're not going to lend money against a company doing. You know, scant revenues and, and huge losses that says it's worth a billion and a half dollars. Maybe you think it's worth a billion and a half dollars. Maybe even equity investors will support that, but we're not gonna, we're not gonna provide the debt for it. So they've been the screen in this market. So, so what I believe is that you're gonna see, and you already have, continued correction in the SPAC market. And that is, generally speaking,

• 12:55Scott Galloway?

  and there'll be a lot of winners that were SPACs, but generally speaking, companies that go publicly as SPACs aren't of the same institutional quality, which isn't to say they won't outperform others. But what we've seen in the history of SPACs is they have underperformed. In the last couple of years, they've overperformed because the, the thirst or the hunger for, for shares in these quote unquote disruptive companies seems to be unquenchable. But I would suggest that the downward trend in SPACs is going to continue. What do we have? Over 50% of SPACs are down by at least 50% from their all time highs. The market seems to be rationalizing a bit around SPACs. Anyways, at the end of the day, you gotta look at the company. You gotta look at the numbers. You gotta look at the fundamentals,

• 13:39Scott Galloway?

  the, the sector, and make your own decision. Because once the company, the mechanism through which it accessed the public markets, doesn't have a lot of impact post three or six months, the offering on the company's futures prospects. But again, I do think you're dealing with a series of companies that didn't get through the same filter as traditional IPOs. Oh my God, I'm verbose today. What does that mean? It means I'm in Aspen where there's dispensaries everywhere. Connect the dots. We have two more questions right after the break.

• 14:14Scott Galloway?

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  Being a renter and now owning a home feels a lot better with Built. You can download the Built app and join the membership for where you live at joinbuilt.com/profg. That's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T.com/profg. Use our link so they know we sent you.

• 15:14Scott Galloway?

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• 16:22Scott Galloway?

  Welcome back. Next question.

• 16:24Speaker 05

  Hi, Professor G. Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. I'm Mia, an incoming junior at NYU Gallatin, concentrating in fintech. I wanted to ask about real estate, and specifically, how much diversification do you think it can really provide to one's portfolio? And if you believe it's a true inflation hedge and long-term investment, or just more of a pain to upkeep, especially physical tangible real estate? And as a 20-year-old, I've been fortunate enough to learn from my immigrant parents, who taught me financial literacy early on, and I've been able to max out my Roth IRA and savings since I was a kid. And at the opportune time in the market last March, I was able to snag a great deal on a studio with a decent mortgage near school. But this property wasn't for myself, rather just to lease out to generate passive income.

• 17:07Speaker 05

  And now I'm considering more options in real estate and wanted to get your take on crowdfunding such as Fundrise or REITs, although they mimic stocks and I'm looking for that return in utility, just not having to deal with tenants anymore. Do you also think there's a possible housing bubble on the horizon? Thank you.

• 17:22Scott Galloway?

  Oh, my gosh, Mia, we're gonna need a bigger boat. We could spend a couple of days trying to track down or break down real estate as an investment. And there's obviously a lot of nuance in there. By the way, you sound incredibly impressive for someone at the age of 20. I think you should go to work in real estate private equity or get the sense you're gonna do incredibly well. So, look, real estate has been a fantastic way to generate wealth or build wealth for people. If you look at the Fortune or the Forbes 400, I think it is, outside of people who inherit money, which, by the way, is the best strategy for getting rich. So if you can do that, do that. But numbers two and three are entrepreneurs and people who own real estate.

• 18:05Scott Galloway?

  Real estate is the most tax advantaged asset in the world, and that is you get to write off the interest on your mortgage. In addition, even more so, you can depreciate, if you own real estate, you can depreciate it three, up to 3% a year, even though it's increasing in value. You can't do that with stocks. I own, if you own $100 in Amazon stock, you can't take a $3 write-off every year despite the fact it goes from 100 to 130 or 140. Commercial real estate is even more tax advantaged. You can sell the asset, and as long as you roll it into another like-kind asset within six months, you don't trigger a tax event. You can't do that in any other asset class either. So the real estate lobby is very powerful and has created tremendous tax advantage.

• 18:47Scott Galloway?

  By the way, entrepreneurs or entrepreneurship, small companies are also very tax advantaged. See a trend here? When the government decides this cohort should be rich, they get rich. Now, for you personally, I think that it sounds like you know what you're doing. Real estate is cyclical. I personally would be very scared to buy real estate in most places right now. We saw real estate prices year on year this quarter go up double-digit in a low-interest rate environment, and we'd never seen that before. So I'm a little bit scared, but one of the reasons, one of my many clauses investor is I hate to buy stuff when it feels expensive. However, in terms of a long-term asset, in terms of long-term, if there's a place where you might want to be a little bit, I don't want to say over-concentrated, but if you can

• 19:30Scott Galloway?

  If you can do it without a ton of debt, real estate and passive income rental, that's just a fantastic way to build wealth. And also, also, building wealth through your own personal residence is a great way to build wealth. Now, Bob Schiller, or Robert Schiller from Yale, who's a Nobel Prize winner in economics, would claim that, and he has evidence to show this, that when you take into effect, when you take into account maintenance and your mortgages and all that, that it's not a better asset class. I would argue that it's a great way to build wealth, your personal residence, and that is one place you want to stretch economically. I find that I also like to rent. I love the idea of slamming my keys down and leaving. But when you talk to people, oftentimes, they have built the majority

• 20:15Scott Galloway?

  or a lot of their wealth through their primary residence. When my mom got cancer for the second time, we decided, okay, this is it. You need to stop working. And we were able to sell her home, her condo in Westwood, and kind of fund a large part of her retirement. And so, a few ways to look at this. One, investing in funds will typically not offer the same return you might get if you're willing to put up with the bullshit. So putting up a tenant's, finding a place, fixing it up, yeah, all that shit is hard. And guess what? It's the hard stuff that gets return. Don't be, you know, there is no free lunch. If you want to go into a real estate portfolio, that's a, it's an asset class. They can do really well, REITs or other types of real estate funds,

• 21:01Scott Galloway?

  but you're not going to get the same return because they're doing the work for you. I think at your age, to start thinking about buying rental income, if you have the cash flow and you can do that, I think it's an outstanding way to build wealth. The bottom line is if you were to say, I'm going to take a disproportionate amount of my money and not lever up, but buy real estate in areas where I thought I got good yields on, in terms of rental income. New York never offers good yields. What it offers is good asset value increase. New York real estate is like, especially Manhattan, is like oceanfront. It goes down a little bit every once in a while, but for the most part, it's just a solid, bulletproof asset. But the yields, you get a cap rate of 2% or 3%. And that is, you don't get very high rents relative to the cost to buy. So it's a different type of return.

• 21:45Scott Galloway?

  Anyways, real estate, I think, is a fantastic way to build long-term wealth. It's tax advantaged. Are we probably in a period where real estate prices might be a little bit frothy? Yeah, but if you're in it for the long term... You know, oh my gosh, you're asking questions I wish I'd asked. I didn't ask you how you're getting cash flow to buy these things, but anyways, it sounds like you figured it out or you have it. So anyways, real estate, hard to imagine a better asset class historically over the long term that's built more wealth for more people. Just don't get too levered up and be disciplined about the cap rates you're getting and don't kid yourself. The better returns will be for stuff you manage yourself. Great question. Welcome to NYU. My gosh, you make us seem smart. You almost compensate

• 22:30Scott Galloway?

  for that batshit crazy professor. Next question.

• 22:35Speaker 06

  Hi Scott, Tim here from Merced, California, gateway to Yosemite and home to the newest UC campus. As I was out shopping the other day, I came across, of all things, an Amazon bookstore. After I got over my shock and horror that the company that almost single-handedly ruined the independent bookstore industry, I noticed its proximity to an Apple store. Tesla was across the street. Cartier was around the corner. I realized this outlet was simply there to give Amazon a more luxury feel than they have with just their internet presence. Thoughts?

• 23:14Scott Galloway?

  Tim from Merced, thanks for the thoughtful commentary. UC Merced, I think University of California is one of the greatest public institutions in the world. I'm here speaking to you because of the generosity and vision of California taxpayers and the Regents and University of California. And UC Merced is where Michelle Obama decided to give the commencement address, which I thought was such a smart move. Anyways, I'd like to see another half a dozen UC campuses that serve as a place where you finish the last two years through our incredible Cal State system that educates a half a million people every year versus like the 60,000 in the entire Ivy League. What's more important to America? Yeah, that's right, Cal State. Anyway, anyway, love UC. Okay, so what you are highlighting

• 23:58Scott Galloway?

  is a key component of brand and brand strategy and something we review in painful detail in my brand strategy sprint at section four, and that is if you think about brand as a series of touchpoints between or interactions between the stakeholder, whether it's a client, a business, or the end consumer. And the core brand or the offering, there's pre-purchase. So think of traditional advertising or public relations or sampling. And then there is purchase and that is distribution where you actually go into the dealership to buy the car, go into the store, go into the Gap. And then there's post-purchase. What happens after you've consummated the relationship and purchased the product? Whether it's warranties, whether it's a loyalty program, whether it's customer service.

• 24:42Scott Galloway?

  And the question is, looking at all three of these areas, pre-purchase and post-purchase, and saying, where do I get a greater ROI? And where you've seen a lot of brands decide they would get greater ROI is if they shifted resources out of pre-purchase advertising into purchase. Probably one of the most accretive business moves in history was Apple's gangster decision in 2002, when everyone was getting out of stores because e-commerce was going to eat the world supposedly. It was Steve Jobs' decision to take $7 billion out of broadcast advertising and allocate it towards 550 leases, temples to the brand called Apple Stores. And I believe that Apple's core asset is its brand that results in the greatest margins in history. The iPhone is a car that has production volumes of Toyota with margins of Ferrari.

• 25:27Scott Galloway?

  We've never seen that before. But it's because it's wrapped around this brand that says you're storyteller, you're smart, that people should consider mating with you because you have an iPhone and iOS is essentially the billion wealthiest people in the world. And what has been the gangster move around the brand? Yeah, it's been elegant products. Yeah, it's been a fantastic spokesperson, both in Steve Jobs and Tim Cook. But I think more than anything, it's been distribution that really enhances the brand. Think about where you buy your Android phone. It's usually an 18-year Verizon store from a guy named Jim that's with bad lighting and bad carpeting. And when you go into an Apple Store and you think, God, I'd like to hang out here forever. So distribution is hugely important. Luxury was the first one to really go all in on distribution.

• 26:08Scott Galloway?

  LVMH decided to kind of exit Nordstrom, exit Saks, exit Neiman Marcus, and spend billions to open 750 of their own vertical stores. Richemont, another luxury player, said, no, we're not going to distribute our watches to other high-end mom-and-pop jewelry stores. We're going to open Panerai stores. We're going to open Van Cleef and Arpels stores because the distribution. Is where there was an underinvestment, an opportunity to go vertical. What is the biggest gangster move of Nike over the last 10 years? Simple, they've gone from about 5% or 10% direct to consumer to 30% or 40%. Because they realized being in a store with a guy dressed up as a referee, holding one Adidas shoe and one Nike shoe is not great for the Nike brand.

• 26:49Scott Galloway?

  Whereas you go into a Nike store and you think, wow, this is an incredible branded experience. In sum, Tim from Merced, you're talking about brand building pre-purchase and post-purchase. You're talking about distribution. It's been a fantastic form of investment for some of the biggest players. Yes, Tesla does not spend any money on advertising. They do spend money on stores, taking stores into malls where they get foot traffic. It's like a giant 3D billboard. Apple has taught us all that distribution is a key component of driving brand value, led by the original invaders, the original gangsters in distribution. And that is luxury. And we're going to see more of it. There's going to be fewer stores. There are going to be fewer self-supporting stores, but there'll be more aspirational brands doing revenue, share of revenue deals

• 27:33Scott Galloway?

  with the top malls in America. Interesting viewpoint. Thank you, Tim from Merced. That's all for this episode. Again, if you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to [email protected].

• 27:56Scott Galloway?

  Our producers are Caroline Shager and Drew Burrows. Claire Miller is our assistant producer. If you like what you heard, please follow, download and subscribe. Thank you for listening to The Prop G Show from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Thursday.

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