Ceasefire in Gaza: Does it Hold? | EYES ON PODCAST

Today we deep dive into the Israel\Hamas ceasefire and what to expect over the next 42 days and beyond. Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Find Andy Milburn here: ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 https://amilburn.substack.com/ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social https://open.substack.com/pub/amilburn/p/journal-of-a-plague-year?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=emo6q&utm_medium=ios Find Mick Mulroy here: ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ https://x.com/MickMulroy?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social #israel #hamas #ceasefire Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 1:15Speaker 02

  Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes On. We've got the full crew here: Eddie Milburn, Jason Lyons, Mick Mulroy, and myself. Lot going on. First and foremost, the Gaza ceasefire is currently underway as we're shooting this right now, 12 o'clock Eastern on Sunday. What are you guys looking at, Mick? I know you've been tracking this pretty tight.

• 1:37Speaker 03

  Yes, tracking it from both the ABC perspective and the fact that my group is doing humanitarian aid in Gaza right now. So, obviously, it's a great, a great thing that we have a ceasefire that's now coming to place. It was very tedious and tension-ridden because neither side trusts each other at all. I mean, they're more aligned in the purest definition of the word. So, there was some fits and starts. One of the biggest issues, I think, that's been revolving around these negotiations is the lack of clarity of who's alive and who's not, right? Normally, when you do hostage negotiations, you start off with the proof of life so you know what you're negotiating for.

• 2:21Speaker 03

  So, it's, it's still unclear to the Israeli side, and the mediators for that matter. You know, out of the ninety-seven that are still left, how many are still alive? And it's believed that even in the first thirty, which is women, elderly, and children, that there are already going to be remains rather than people coming out. So where we are right now, the three females that Israeli hostages have been relieved, they have been checked by the Red Cross, and they're in the process of repatriation. At the same time, there's about ninety Palestinian prisoners, some of which were in prison for life.

• 3:04Speaker 03

  A couple actually committed significant terrorist acts that killed innocent civilians. They're in the process of being moved, and that's even more complicated. You know, where are they going? I don't even sure where they are. I follow this pretty closely. Some may actually end up in like, out of the country, in Qatar, in Egypt, is what part of the Qatar is. And then at this, all with all that going on, you have the IDF having to relocate from population centers, not all the way out, and there's supposed to be six hundred trucks per day of humanitarian assistance, much needed, going into Gaza. Three hundred are supposed to go all the way to the north. So that is a logistical difficulty because of the damage to the infrastructure.

• 3:48Speaker 03

  And of course, a large portion of that is fuel that is needed for the hospitals to be able to get up and running, which is also very much needed. And this is all happening at the same time, and it's going to go day by day. We should all hope that it continues to go without any disruption, but there's a big chance that there could be disruption because of this complicated matter. And of course, just to add to that, not everybody listens to Hamas. There's plenty of jihadists in there that, you know, might want to disrupt this for whatever reason. And if they can do something substantial enough, it's potential. So this is a very tenuous situation.

• 4:30Speaker 02

  Andy?

• 4:32Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, well, Mick's the expert on this. I've just been reading some of the kind of the human interest side of the story, too. One of the first three women is actually a British citizen, Jewel National, and so the British papers have been, you know, going wild over this. And, you know, I mean, there's some quite touching coverage. Evidently, she has been a tower of strength as a hostage. Other hostages who were released have said that, and not simply because she's British, but Tottenham Hotspur Football Club, which I believe is, you know, another football club, not one of the best.

• 5:15Speaker 02

  They're pretty up there.

• 5:17Speaker 04

  Yeah, I'm joking. It's just for all the Spurs fans out there who are deplorable human beings. But aside from that, because she was a fan of Spurs, you know, they've been releasing yellow balloons during their matches and making announcements, you know, throughout the hostage crisis on her status and, you know, kudos to them. The other thing is, you know, to Mick's point, are the Palestinians being released? And I think this plays into Sinwar's original calculus. Now, remember, when Sinwar was released from jail in 2011,

• 6:00Speaker 04

  it was part of a hostage release. And, you know, there were a thousand, I believe, a thousand Palestinians released in return for the body of Gilat Shalil, who was an Israeli soldier who'd been kidnapped and killed. And so Sinwar's calculus, through all of this, was partly based on his own experiences. Remember, we talked about Sinwar's time in an Israeli jail, how he studied through the British Open University courses on Israel, on the Zionism. But he's also a keen study-

• 6:39Speaker 04

  Analyst of Israeli National Psychology speaks very fluent Hebrew and so it's ironic, you know, all this time later, a number of deaths later, fifteen months into it. And, you know, his predictions are kind of coming true. That's, I mean, listen, I, from a personal perspective, I, I'm for this ceasefire. I'm not criticizing it, but some of these high-profile prisoners being released are indeed high-profile. One is Zakaria Zabeidi, who's a senior member of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in, on the West Bank.

• 7:18Speaker 04

  He'd, you know, he'd escaped from Gilboa Prison back in 2021, was, was caught again. And he was behind waiver bombings in Jerusalem. There's another prisoner also who's been held personally responsible for 42 deaths of civilians in bombing attacks back in the Second Infatada. So, again, this kind of plays into Netanyahu's stance on the hostages, in other words,

• 7:54Speaker 04

  his, his apparent unwillingness to, to negotiate and to, you know, any terms of ceasefire. And I'm not suggesting he's driven by principle, he's driven by trying to hold his coalition together, but it runs, it flies in the face of, of kind of Israeli national ethos, which is regardless of cost, to bring back their own alive or dead. And it'll be interesting to see what happens to his coalition now that Ben Gavir has finally, finally quit. He's packed up his toys that Ben Gavir represents the Jewish power party and.

• 8:36Speaker 04

  Uh, which is of course on the, on the, on the right wing. Um, but it looks as though because the, the consensus i- in favor of this ceasefire is, is, I won't say it's universal, but it seems as though a majority of Israelis support it. And there have been parties and central, uh, is on the center, uh, who have offered to help support Netanyahu's coalition in order to carry this through, which is an extraordinary, because Netanyahu is hated by these people. I mean, he's hated by a significant part of Israel. Um, but the fact that they're willing to align with him in order to make this ceasefire deal go through just shows the, you know, kind of the level of hope and expectation

• 9:21Speaker 04

  uh, that, that a sizable chunk of the Israeli public places on this ceasefire and the return of the hostages.

• 9:27Speaker 05

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• 9:57Speaker 01

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• 10:45Speaker 06

  So I need to, I wanted to ask, um, and I guess, uh, I'm not sure if, um, either of you know this, but is it normal for that, I guess, what seems like a lopsided exchange, like three of, is the Israelis for like 300 of theirs, is that normal?

• 11:03Speaker 03

  Yeah, in 2011, yeah.

• 11:06Speaker 04

  2011, I think it was, uh, I forget how many it was for a thousand prisoners, but it was in, I think it was like in the double digits.

• 11:14Speaker 06

  Really?

• 11:15Speaker 03

  Yeah, and it seems like the ratio this time is 30 to one.

• 11:19Speaker 06

  Okay.

• 11:19Speaker 03

  Right, so there's three coming out today and there's 90 being released. So, and some of them are, I think, out of the, the pool that might be released in total over a thousand, there's about 190, 200 that have serious life sentence, like Andy was just talking about, these, these people that are, so it's, it's causing some tension, of course, with the family members of the people that were killed, uh, but ultimately, I think, uh, for the greater good to get the people that, you know, there's, the first 33 include children for Christ's sake, you know, it's, it's, I mean, it's, I can see how the families of the ones that were killed in the past will be upset, but, you know, this very difficult decisions to be made and it's going to be even more difficult

• 12:02Speaker 03

  to go from phase one into phase two, because phase two is a full withdrawal IDF from Gaza, right, so that is, that is a huge political decision that's going to be fraught with, you know, collapsing of governments and, uh, and it of course makes it more difficult if Hamas then decides to start fighting again, if they can regain the capacity, because after all, there was a ceasefire on October 6th, right, so, uh, yeah, but right now they're focused on getting through phase one and getting these 33 people out.

• 12:37Speaker 02

  So can we break down a little bit of what the parameters of the ceasefire is? Like, is there a day count on it, like how they had in Lebanon, Hezbollah and stuff like that? Like, what, what does it look like, 33 hostages, obviously? Like what are the what's phase one to?

• 12:52Speaker 03

  It's so it's forty two days phase one to get thirty three hostages out when there's thirty thirty Palestinian prisoners per hostage. I don't think the amount of truck aid going in changes. I think it's six hundred and eight uh per day every day. There is some withdrawal requirements for the IDF out of population centers, but um what's another part of this?

• 13:18Speaker 03

  That's that's that's the ones I know. And then you go to second phase, it's a full withdrawal. And then third phase, in generally speaking, is the reconstruction of Gaza, right? So uh which is going to take decades. So if you're looking at the overall strategy of Hamas, I heard this this morning, which I thought was kind of interesting. Pre October seventh, the economy of Gaza was essentially equal to Morocco. Right? So there's this concept that it was an open prison and everything was um without hope, but it wasn't actually the case. Right? So Hamas for their strategy has completely devastated Gaza. It's about eighty five to ninety percent uninhabitable structures.

• 13:59Speaker 03

  Uh and I think I've seen an estimated fifty to sixty billion dollars in required to reconstruct and it'll take ten to fifteen years. That's what that's where they put their people.

• 14:12Speaker 03

  And forty six thousand dead right now.

• 14:16Speaker 02

  What's the situation on the ground look like humanitarian wise?

• 14:21Speaker 03

  Um it's very dire. I mean, we've all heard the most. I don't think there's any uh functional hospital right now. Partly because there's no generations, no power. So the stuff that you need for any kind of advanced medical care is not there. The medicines, um vaccine uh vaccinations have been a problem. So uh there's a uh concern that, you know, otherwise uh diseases that would not be coming back are coming back. And of course, it's uh winter there. So there's a big problem with um exposure and uh food. I mean, the food is just not flowing in. But it should now. And I think that from what I my understanding, and we were just talking to our team this morning.

• 15:05Speaker 03

  Um there's two things. They need to get the food in. They have to have a place to store it. Right, because if they don't, people are hoarding it, people are stealing it, people are then selling it and you know, the people who don't have money. So there has to be a rebuilding of some of the infrastructure that the UN specifically used to use to hold large food stores to get them in there. So it calms down the population. They can look over there and see that there's enough food for the next two months. So they don't need to fight each other for this bag of rice or, you know, attack the truck driver. That's, this all needs to happen simultaneously. So I can kind of decompress the situation, but also get food.

• 15:46Speaker 03

  Not just, the other issue, and I know I'll get a little deep on this, but when they come into one particular ground entry point. It's very difficult to convince the population that it goes through first, that they should let it go because there's a population further away than them. They're starving. It's, it's kind of a situation where it's a, you know, every man, woman for himself, kind of a Darwinian type thing. So they have to come in from different directions. I would say that there's still a need for a maritime corridor, just to be done different than it was in the first place, because you can come in a different, including the north. And really bring in large scale humanitarian assistance to places that just aren't getting it because they can't get trucks there.

• 16:32Speaker 06

  So Mick, with the, speaking on humanitarian still. Do you know, or do you think there might be a hesitation from humanitarian groups outside of the ones that are already set to do work there to come in because of past attacks on humanitarian, you know, trucks and things like that?

• 16:53Speaker 03

  Super risky, absolutely. They've proven that they still are willing to go and risk it all. I think one of the issues is there's a resistance on the side of humanitarian groups to fully coordinate with the idea, which involves tracking. Right?

• 17:13Speaker 03

  Most of us know that, you know, coordination across the battle space is super important and you don't wanna, you don't wanna blow that off because it's generally you that will pay the consequences and then that is what happened. I understand their issues, you know, from their perspective on allowing themselves to be tracked. But that's one of the issues that leads to these, uh, these deaths of humanitarian workers, for sure. But it's very dangerous to work there and I think more, the more we can do to coordinate, uh, potentially like a military level of coordination of, of movement in a battle space, would be beneficial not only to the individuals who are brave enough to go and serve this humanitarian purpose, but it to get the aid to people, right? Cause if, if everybody was confident that they wouldn't

• 17:59Speaker 03

  get attacked and accidentally on route, then there'd be more people willing to do it. Right? So that's, it is a, it benefits the people on the ground as well as the humanitarians that are brave enough to go there.

• 18:14Speaker 02

  Uh, about, the thing about the hostages, like you said, like there's possibility that there are multiple groups that are holding them, not just Hamas. Um, is Hamas like coordinating with them to try and get whoever, you know, the whatever hostage they have out? Cause I remember when it first went off, we had Alex Leesis on and he said that, uh, there was real trouble, you know, locating the hostages because it's not just Hamas, it's just one body. It's like multiple people that hold these people. Uh, yes. So I'm assuming, yeah, go ahead, please.

• 18:46Speaker 03

  I think they believe some, a lot of them being held by just families, right? In places that are the least likely to, uh, draw attention of, you know, if, if they're with around a lot of Hamas fighters, um, that is gonna draw attention, uh, just from the, you know, the sake of the battle. Right? So that's one of the reasons why Hamas says they don't know how many people are still alive. They would have to send people around, uh, to places they believe the hostages are being held, uh, to make some kind of proof of life determination. So, uh, certainly not making excuses for them, but that is the difficulty of recovering these hostages. They're spread all over the place and often in places that wouldn't be considered for where a hostage would be.

• 19:30Speaker 04

  It's the internal, there's a couple of things that are going to be really interesting to watch play out. One is, you know, as the Trump administration moves into position here, what their stance is going to be if, if the Israelis make the call that Hamas is not cooperating with the ceasefire and that all bets are off and that the IDF will go in and finish the task of destroying Hamas. Now Netanyahu tells his colleagues, his right-wing colleagues, who are left, notably Smaldrich, who represents the ultra-orthodox MK, I think it's MK's party, you know, he's telling him,

• 20:14Speaker 04

  "Look, Hamas is going to break this deal and everything's going to be fine because then we'll go in and finish the task. This is just kind of a hiccup." But, but you know, no one really knows what the Trump administration's status is on that. You know, it does seem as though Trump wants this to end, that it is an unnecessary distraction from, from what he sees, and I'm, you know, I don't have any insights here, I'm just saying, from what he and his foreign policy team see as being dealing with the real adversary,

• 20:53Speaker 04

  which is Iran, and moving forward on, on achieving some kind of a resolution there. But nevertheless, that's, you know, that's kind of what Netanyahu believes in that. And Smaldrich, Smaldrich called this week Netanyahu "a lying son of a liar," which is, which is an interesting juxtaposition of adjectives and nouns. But, and so he's hanging on by a thread and, and something has been, you know, something's been promised to him because Netanyahu, at the same time, against his will, has, has started not, well, he hasn't started, but the Israeli government has started to enforce

• 21:37Speaker 04

  the conscription of ultra-orthodox Jews and actually this week issued warrants for the arrest of those who were trying to evade conscription. This has been a live-wire issue in Israeli politics for some time and Netanyahu opposed it and it was the Supreme Court that overruled, you know, what the government, the government's... Appeal that this was not the government's attempts to block it, I guess, is what I'm trying to say. And so you can see Netanyahu is dancing very, he's, he, not to mix metaphors, but he is walking a tightrope here, trying to, trying to keep the, the right wing, trying

• 22:19Speaker 04

  to keep the ultra orthodox within his coalition, because those are his power base, rather than having to rely on centrist parties who will desert him probably as soon as the, you know, as the, the deal is over.

• 22:39Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 22:39Speaker 06

  Now, I'm sorry, Andy, with the, this conscription, is that something that would still be in effect? Let's just say, everything stopped today. The ceasefire held, there was no more fighting. Would that be something that would still be put into effect? Or was that only because of what happened on October 7?

• 23:00Speaker 04

  No, October the 7th might have been a catalyst, you know, the mass, the mass mobilization of all the reservists, I think probably made it very clearly apparent to a number of Israelis that the burden of military service was not being equally shared throughout the population. But this has been an issue that has been going on for at least five years. Because as you, you guys probably know, the, the, really, a population have, under an understanding, I believe is going all the way back to Ben Gurion, when, when they were kind of imported

• 23:41Speaker 04

  into Israel from Eastern Europe after the war, to keep the traditions of Jewish religion alive. You know, the agreement back then was that they would not be called into service, but they have, you know, they've grown, they've, they've multiplied. And, and so now.

• 24:02Speaker 04

  It's very, you know, when you have a large segment of the population who is not serving in the military, and this isn't coming from me, it's coming from a lot of Israeli friends and their views are not really tangibly contributing to Israeli society in any other way. I mean, they continue the religion, yes, they study it and they propagate it, but they're not defending the country and they're not working in business that adds to the GDP. And so it doesn't, you know, modern Israel doesn't accept this exemption in the way

• 24:41Speaker 04

  that it, you know, that Ben Gurion intended it to be justified. So a lengthy answer, but yeah, this week, a thousand ultra orthodox men received their draft, I'm sorry, not this week, it was months ago, it was back in last summer, it was in July, they received their draft notices and now warrants are being issued for arrests. It doesn't, I don't know how many who are being classified as deserters, but it's apparently a significant portion of those 1,000 who are called up. And at the same time, the ultra orthodox parties of which, of whom, no, of which Smoldrich is a representative, opposed this and have

• 25:26Speaker 04

  opposed it from the start.

• 25:29Jack Murphy?

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• 26:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, so you guys, Andy, you mentioned like the Trump administration's real aim in the region is Iran. And last week, I saw a report where France, Germany, and the UK met with Iran to talk about whether it's options or what's going to happen if they do get hit in terms of like their nuclear capabilities. And like, there was some speculation that Israel had a plan ready to go. And they're waiting for the Trump administration to come in, just because that I'm assuming the Trump administration would probably be a bit leany, more lenient, at least in the press. Where have you guys heard anything about that in terms of like, where we're at in terms like, it sounds like it's just ready to go. And they're just waiting

• 26:54Speaker 02

  to hit the button, basically.

• 26:58Speaker 03

  So there's, there's been a plan, of course, by Israel for the day that they believe that Iran's in a breakout mode toward a deliverable nuclear weapon. I think it's important to point out that, yes, they could get four, four weapons, or at least enough, enough material to make for weapons. But then they have to, and I'm not a nuclear bomb expert, but they have to come up with the triggering mechanisms to make it functional. Right. And I've heard up in open source, I've heard up to a year that would take. But they, there is a plan, and I do believe it's being discussed more, more openly and more, more along the idea that it will happen if Iran, if there's enough intelligence that indicates that's where it's heading. And

• 27:43Speaker 03

  I think the Biden administration was talking about it with Israel, and now the incoming administration was probably part of those conversations during this transition. And, and we'll see, but it could be that they're openly talking about it, or at least talking to media about it, because they want Iran to look at that and say, okay, you know, we've been, we've had several strategic setbacks, right? We're out of Syria, for the most part, we've seen Hezbollah and Hamas decimated. We've shown that we can't actually conventionally fight Israel, and we don't really have any air missile defense systems, as there has three hundred have been. Destroyed by Israel. Maybe it's an opportunity to go back into negotiations for

• 28:26Speaker 03

  an agreement that President Trump would find acceptable. And that would likely include all the proxy operations, which wasn't included in the first agreement, the JCPOA, and which is why it got criticized. So this might be real in the sense that they are really looking at, you know, how are we going to do this if we need to? But it also might be, at least in part, to really send a message to Iran, like now's the time to try to come up with a new agreement. And it might be effective. They might come to the back of the table. Because they are not doing well economically. The regime is incredibly unpopular. And they've proven that they really don't have much bite to their bark. They're pretty much all bark. Military.

• 29:12Speaker 02

  I mean, I'm assuming here and I'm speculating. Would Israel really want another deal? Even if it involved proxy forces?

• 29:23Speaker 04

  I don't think so. Okay, oh, sorry, go ahead.

• 29:27Speaker 03

  All right. Yeah, just quickly and then over you. And I think if you include the proxy forces, it would be a difficult discussion of the United States going, okay, so they're not getting a nuke? And they stop funding the proxy forces and you're against it? Right? So like, what is it you want? I mean, do you want the conflict with Iran? I don't think that would be good for the region, right? Or you. So I

• 29:49Speaker 05

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• 30:19Speaker 03

  I think if you include that, it'll change the discussion. I'm sure there'll be some people there, but we have to focus on the majority because that's what counts.

• 30:28Speaker 02

  Andy.

• 30:29Speaker 04

  Yeah, no, I was gonna say, I don't think there's gonna be, I don't think there's much room to maneuver if, if the Iranians do agree, of course, they've got to convince the negotiating parties of a means to monitor this. But if Iranians agree to prevent, to stop funding Hezbollah in particular, and of course Hamas, and, and you know, from the US perspective, the Houthis too, then I think that'll keep, you know, all parties, Israel, Saudi Arabia, United States, happy. But it, it, yeah, it'll be interesting to see, certainly, there is, Mick says they're on the ropes, but that is such a,

• 31:12Speaker 04

  that's such a central part of their foreign policy, right? Because that is how, that's how they exert influence. And for Quds Force, the, you know, the IRGC, and Khomeini himself, to, to kind of give up on that is almost unimaginable.

• 31:35Speaker 04

  Propagation overseas of, of, of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the destruction of Israel have been, you know, it's been a, an open strategy of Iran. It was a shared strategy with its proxies to step back from that. It's going to be a tough call on their part. And perhaps the threat of a strike on their nuclear program is the only thing that'll bring them to it.

• 32:05Speaker 02

  All right, going back to the ceasefire for a second, I want a little bit of speculation from you guys. Does it hold? Does the, do we get to the, not even hold, does it get to the 42 days?

• 32:19Speaker 03

  So I think it's in both sides' interests to get to the end of the 42 days.

• 32:26Speaker 03

  If it's done by the letter of the agreement. So a part of it's just hopeful optimism, but I think is a good chance. After that, it's really tough because it, I mean, if you were in Israel's shoes, you're going to withdraw the idea of who's who's filling the security vacuum, right? So my understanding, you know, I've been here talking to a lot of folks about policy stuff and also what we're doing overseas. My understanding is the US has gone to Gulf allies and talked about a multinational security force that could potentially bridge the gap between, you know, obviously not Hamas and something that's Palestinian but not Hamas. And they've all said, hell no, right?

• 33:09Speaker 03

  So then who's going to fill the security vacuum? And it's just for practical reasons. That's, that's a tough answer and a tough decision to make. You know, that is it going to be a private company? Is it going to be at multiple private companies? And what would be acceptable? What kind of outside, are they going to train Palestinians? I mean, it's, and then, I mean, that all has to happen before we go into the second phase or it's, or there's no security that Israelis would be comfortable with. So I don't, I don't want to say we will not get into the second phase because that just seems defeatist, but the challenges are very real and it's, it's, it's hard to, it's, it's

• 33:49Speaker 03

  hard to see that unless the international community, which says a lot and does little, steps up in some capacity, there will be a very difficult decision for the idea to pull the idea out.

• 34:02Speaker 04

  Yeah, especially, especially since all these prisoners have just been released to include 200 with, you know, who, who are serving multiple life sentences each, you know, so yes, Hamas's leadership has been destroyed, but Hamas has not been destroyed. And that's clearly evident in some of the, some of the film that we're seeing, some of the video clips of Hamas fighters driving through Khan Yunis and being cheered by the crowds. And, and of course that's predictable. You don't, you can't destroy an organization like Hamas by just whack a mole, by, by sheer destruction. I mean, that's, that's not the way to go about it. We've talked about this.

• 34:46Speaker 04

  Over and over and who knows how many, how many nascent Hamas fighters they have created in, by, by doing that, you know, if you've seen your whole family killed by the Israelis, you might have been a fence sitter before, but I think anyone here on this video call, when most of our audience would probably want to pick up a gun and, and get vengeance, because that's human nature. And now, and, and you know, now you've got all these embroiled leaders returning to the fray. Um, it just doesn't, you know, it doesn't bode well. The destruction of Hamas was always just an empty phrase. And I don't think Israel is any nearer now than it ever was to, to doing that.

• 35:29Speaker 02

  Yikes. I mean, also, I completely agree with you, Andy. Um, forty-two days till phase two, and you need some sort of security force there that's not the IDF. And they're not in the plan, in like, you should be not even in the beginning talks of it. You should be like in the middle of like logistics, how it's going to work, who's going to be there? And there's nobody. It's like, okay, I hope we get to, I hope we get hostages out. I hope we get humanitarian aid there, but to think that like the IDF is going to pull out in phase two is madness.

• 36:06Speaker 02

  Cause there's nobody else. Who else is going to do it? I don't think there's US, uh, there's political capital even with Trump to get, bring US troops in there. Uh, and if, if the people, if other countries in the Middle East aren't willing to step up, it's like, who the fuck's going to do this?

• 36:22Speaker 04

  I, I think it's, it is just such a, such a, a problematic situation. Uh, because you know, first of all, I mean, they, the, the only, the only potential realistic solution would be to cobble together some of the, you know, more powerful and, and, uh, And richer families among the Palestinians in Gaza to, you know, to oppose the rebirth of Hamas. But that's, that's impractical. These, yes, there are a lot of influential families, but they've had to collaborate with Hamas to this point, simply to survive.

• 37:04Speaker 04

  And then putting a peace force, a peacekeeping force into there is all risk and no gain as far as, certainly as far as, you know, the Arab countries are, are concerned. And the Israelis aren't a peacekeeping force, you know, they have, they have zero credibility in that regard. And certainly among the Palestinians at this stage, and they don't want to do it.

• 37:29Speaker 04

  Nor will they contribute to the, to the rebuilding Gaza. They don't subscribe to, you know, our philosophy or Colin Powell's philosophy of if you break the China. Or whatever it was by the China shop, right? You've got to help rebuild it. So there's simply no one who, who, who's going to be willing to step up to the plate. And sadly, or not sadly, everyone's going to look to the United States to take leadership on this. I, I can't see the European Union doing that, this. And I, and with the administration coming in, that's disavowed involvement in any such operation overseas. I, it just, yeah, there's no, there doesn't seem to be any solution at all.

• 38:11Speaker 02

  Is there any capital, political will or capital in the UN where like you can get nothing?

• 38:19Speaker 03

  Well, I mean, the UN probably would have to be part of it and certainly maybe even lead it. But to Andy's point and all of our points, there's no country is going to want to Roger up there, certainly not us.

• 38:32Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 38:32Speaker 03

  This is, this is nation, nation building, of course, because we build Gaza. But could a private company that's falling, that falls under the authority and legitimacy of the UN? I mean, as a guy who tries to look for some solution, because if not, it's basically going to be a continuous cycle of violence, I think they have to look at it. You know, the private security companies do get, you know, bad reps, but they can serve a purpose if they're if they're overseen correctly and that they fall under some legitimacy of an international organization like the United Nations. And if they don't do that, I don't know what the other options are.

• 39:14Speaker 03

  Because it's, it, Israel is simply not going to leave a security vacuum which Hamas will absolutely fill immediately if, if they just precipitously leave. So. Yeah, it's a challenge that the world should look at as one to solve, not just admire.

• 39:33Speaker 02

  Right. I mean, listen, I, I'm happy the ceasefire is at least getting the forty two days, you know, knock on wood, hopefully. And, and you know, kids kind of stop starving in the fucking street, you know what I mean? Like where there's just basic humanitarian aid getting there and hospitals getting up and running and stuff like that. Um.

• 39:53Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is a rock and a hard place. And I'm having a hard time picturing a guy like Eric Prince sending his boys in to Gaza to like start helping prop up and keep security going on. Uh, maybe there is another person outside of Eric Prince, I hope to God to, that'll be able to do it if the private option was, was the one that got the most steam. Uh, yeah.

• 40:22Speaker 06

  I keep going back to these prisoner, this prisoner exchange or the exchange thing. Um, I, I wouldn't put it past the Israelis to, uh, as they're um, releasing these guys to give them a wink and say, we'll see you again soon because I, I don't see them just letting them go and run around, run amok, you know? Um, and it's kind of like this weird cycle. It's like, we let them go, they start their shit again. We capture, kill them, it starts tension, we, you know, it's just this, I don't know. I just don't see these people, even if they go to other countries, I, I don't see them living much longer, you know, or it just being forgiven and let go. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

• 41:05Speaker 04

  No, certainly there's a history of following up by assassinating prisoners, high-profile prisoners who have been released. But remember, there are 200, I mean, there are something 1,100 prisoners getting released. And of those 200 are serving multiple life sentences. I don't know among those how many are potential leaders, but certainly there's some high-profile names with a long resume of what they would call "resistance action" against the occupant, in their words, going way back to, you know, the 90s. And so, yeah.

• 41:48Speaker 04

  And whack-a-mole works.

• 41:54Speaker 04

  As we found out, it works if it's combined with other efforts, right? But whack-a-mole alone has not, you know, it has mown the grass for the Israelis. It's brought Hezbollah to its knees.

• 42:11Speaker 04

  But they're not out. Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas is out. And it would be a mistake to think they are. It's not, I'm trying to think of, you know, when you think of the way we went after, God, I mean, there's so many things that we didn't do well, the United States. But we did do a good job of going after al-Qaeda in Iraq, right? But it was a combined effort. And it was counterinsurgency combined with assassination and, you know, the whole intelligence cycle. And it was many more actions. And a number of those actions are what some people might call "soft", but it did work for us, of course, until we withdrew and the Islamic State came in.

• 42:56Speaker 04

  But the point is, no, we, let's, you know, let's not undermine our own efforts. It worked well, but that's not what the Israelis do. They assassinate and someone else moves into the position. If you look at all the lead members of Hamas, Sinwar, Daif.

• 43:15Speaker 04

  You name it, they they all they a position opened up for them because the Israelis killed the guy who was there before. And you very rarely get someone in coming into a dead man's shoes who is more benign than his predecessor, just by nature of the beast, because he knows the risks. So he's bound to be more of a zealot than the guy before.

• 43:37Speaker 02

  And I mean, like, Sinwar got released in 2011, right? And, uh, you know, he was operating for the most part. I mean, I'm sure there was some like people were tracking and looking to smoke him, but from.

• 43:48Speaker 04

  Well, yeah, in, uh, and and in 2014, uh, he was the guy on the political bureau who coordinated the Al Qasim Brigades, you know, the the military wing and directed action. And the Israelis didn't manage to get him. And then he emerged from the tunnels in 2014 afterwards to declare victory. Um, Daif, who was kind of his right hand man, who took over the Al Qasim Brigades, uh, you know, years later and and was really the guy who did a lot of the military planning for 7 October. The Israelis tried to kill him seven times. Um, they got his family, right? You know, they killed his wife, his infant son and his daughter.

• 44:30Speaker 04

  Um, and that that wasn't, you know, that wasn't likely to make him step down and go, okay, guys, you got it. Uh, he went ahead and planned 7 October, right? So you think, you know, a again, it's it's an understanding of mentality. Uh, I think sometimes the Israelis forget they're dealing with human beings. You you had you see your wife and your kids killed, all right? You what what's your mindset going to be? Are you going to care about killing a civilian, so the your adversary who did that? No, of course not. And I and I guarantee most people who regard themselves as being compassionate human beings wouldn't think that way. You take a a guy who's a jihadist anyway by background, um, and and do that, then you you know, you you're going to have trouble on your hands.

• 45:15Speaker 04

  And sure enough, they did. And they got Daif, you know, eventually, but someone else took over the Al Qasim Brigades, someone else who probably lost a lot of people during these attacks and is probably planning something and going to be planning something as soon as, uh, you know, Hamas gets its feet back under it.

• 45:34Speaker 04

  I mean, it seems to me so obvious, you know, the all this cheering every time they get someone. It's like dudes, what else are you doing? What are you doing to consolidate your advances? Nothing, you know, you've you've left a city level to rubble, a population that is bound to hate you. You're doing nothing to to help them rebuild it. As bad as we were at times, and we made some mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan, but for the most part, we understood that a strategy cannot simply rest on killing, killing, killing. And certainly not when you're dealing with a group that not a not a conventional adversary

• 46:18Speaker 04

  with fixed lines, you're dealing with an insurgent group.

• 46:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, so one quick thing before this Netanyahu politically. I mean, it's good that he's, you know, there was a big, big push for the hostages and stuff like that, but he is losing, starting to lose a bit of his like right flank in terms of Ben Gavir and stuff.

• 46:41Speaker 05

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• 47:11Speaker 02

  Like that, is he able to keep a coalition together enough where he's not going to get like hit with, you know, getting booted, you know, snap, whatever, election or whatever that, you know, their system works, how their system works?

• 47:24Speaker 04

  I think I think that, again, I'm not I'm no expert, but I think that the, you know, as I mentioned, that there are, there are Israeli politicians.

• 47:37Speaker 04

  Who are more centrist, who are willing to align themselves with Netanyahu for the sake of the ceasefire deal. So I don't think that his government is in immediate danger of falling. But that could change, you know, the ceasefire deal ends, depending on how it ends, or any other of a number of factors. But of course, remember, there are there are criminal charges against him that that can only be brought when he is no longer prime minister. And so he it's more than his political future at stake. It could possibly be, you know, his way to avoid being locked up is to continue in power. And I think most people, even his supporters, will say he will do anything to stay in power.

• 48:22Speaker 04

  And he's a survivor. He's the longest serving Israeli prime minister, period, you know, longer than Ben Gurion. And he's been a lead player in Israeli politics since the early 90s.

• 48:38Speaker 03

  And it's the phase two negotiations. I think they start next week. Next week, that could be could be the biggest challenge to that. If he agrees with it, he's gonna have to really explain, well, we already talked about, how do we ensure that Hamas doesn't take back over and become the threat that they once were before October 7?

• 48:59Speaker 02

  I mean, you could see how hard these negotiations were, right? The two sides that fucking hate each other, where it's like, this phase two thing should have been planned for months ago. It should have been part of the initial ceasefire in terms of like, how is it gonna work? Who's gonna be there? You know, the the actual nuts and bolts of it. But at least

• 49:21Speaker 04

  I'm sorry. No, Netanyahu, we said, you know, he he took a stand on On the requirement for the Israelis to withdraw from Gaza, right? And even though, even when the military said, hey, we can go down to the Philadelphia corridor and still be ready to respond from there. And Hillevi, who was the chief of staff, said publicly, as did, oh, gosh.

• 49:49Speaker 03

  Galant.

• 49:50Speaker 04

  Yeah, Galant, right? They both said that, and they were both fired. And so, you know, that, that was the way that he, that he kept, he kept slow rolling the ceasefire. Even when his own generals said, hey, those terms are acceptable, he found a way to, they weren't.

• 50:09Speaker 03

  It might have been just a strategy when it comes to negotiation, that if they would have talked too much about phase two, they would have been around around the axle on phase two and never even gotten to phase one.

• 50:19Speaker 02

  Yeah. All right, so cautious optimism, and I hope they keep bringing that humanitarian aid in, because I'm not interested in like little kids fucking starving in the street. It's a bummer. Yeah. And Mick is, you know, involved in that humanitarian effort with Fogbo. You could check it out, the link is in the description. There's some other stuff too about the TikTok ban and stuff like that, but we could do that on another time.

• 50:46Speaker 02

  This is awesome. All right, so Mick's companies, Fogbo, Longbow, everything is in the description. Check that out. Andy Milburn, he's got a great book, When the Tempest Gathers, link is in the description. Find him. If you wanted to talk to Andy Milburn, maybe he'll answer you. The links are in the description. Stop asking me. Jason Lyons, same thing, links are in the description as well. And the best place to support the show is patreon.com/the team house. I missed you guys. Been a little bit of, it's been a week, an entire week I haven't seen you guys.

• 51:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, great show guys. If there's anything else you guys want to add, please feel free.

• 51:22Speaker 00

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• 51:53Speaker 06

  No, good.

• 51:55Speaker 04

  Good. Good seeing you guys.

• 51:56Speaker 02

  Thanks, everybody.

• 51:57Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah. Thanks, everybody. Take it.

• 52:00Speaker 00

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• 52:40Speaker 00

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• 53:47Speaker 00

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