🔴 CODE RED 🔴, AWS CEO Joins, Tae Kim Tells All | Matt Garman, Tae Kim, Tarek Mansour, Matt Mullenweg, Jason Fried

(00:19) - Papperger Pushes Rheinmetall to Top (13:35) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (16:11) - Anduril Says Failures are Part of Development (20:21) - 🔴 CODE RED 🔴 (38:35) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (56:20) - Stratechery: Gemini Spurs New AI Infra Race (01:30:37) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (01:42:23) - Matt Garman, CEO of Amazon Web Services (AWS), discussed several key announcements at AWS re:Invent 2025, including the introduction of frontier agents designed to enhance software development, operations, and security through autonomous capabilities. He also highlighted the launch of Nova 2, AWS's latest Frontier AI models, and Nova Forge, a tool enabling customers to integrate their own data into pre-training checkpoints to create customized models. Additionally, Garman announced the general availability of Trainium 3, AWS's new chip aimed at accelerating training and inference processes for customers. (01:55:08) - Tae Kim, a senior writer for Barron's and author of "The Nvidia Way," discusses Nvidia's unique corporate culture under CEO Jensen Huang, emphasizing its blunt communication style, agility in decision-making, and meritocratic approach to talent recruitment. He highlights how these factors have contributed to Nvidia's sustained success and ability to outmaneuver competitors. Kim also addresses the company's strategies in navigating challenges such as competition from Google's TPUs and geopolitical issues affecting sales in China. (02:23:05) - Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform, discusses the company's recent $1 billion Series E funding round, which elevated its valuation to $11 billion. He highlights the mainstream adoption of prediction markets, attributing this shift to factors such as declining trust in traditional media, the legalization of such markets, and their integration into daily activities like sports viewing. Mansour also addresses Kalshi's strategic partnerships with platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, emphasizing their role in driving user engagement and expanding the platform's reach. (02:42:16) - Matt Mullenweg, co-founder of WordPress and CEO of Automattic, discusses the recent live release of WordPress 6.9, highlighting its development by over 900 contributors worldwide. He emphasizes the importance of freedom in technology, advocating for open-source licenses as a "bill of rights for software." Mullenweg also introduces Beeper, a service that consolidates various messaging platforms into a single interface, aiming to enhance user experience across different networks. (02:53:06) - Jason Fried, co-founder and CEO of 37signals, is renowned for developing web-based productivity tools like Basecamp and HEY. In the conversation, he discusses the launch of Fizzy, a new Kanban-style project management tool designed to be simple, colorful, and open-source, aiming to bring vibrancy and ease of use to the software industry. Fried emphasizes that Fizzy is built for their own needs, reflecting their philosophy of creating products they personally find useful, and offers it at a straightforward price of $20 per month with unlimited users and usage. TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Figma - https://figma.com Vanta - https://vanta.com Linear - https://linear.app Eight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpn Wander - https://wander.com/tbpn Public - https://public.com AdQuick - https://adquick.com Bezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.com Attio - https://attio.com/tbpn Fin - https://fin.ai/tbpn Graphite - https://graphite.dev Restream - https://restream.io Profound - https://tryprofound.com Julius AI - https://julius.ai turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com Polymarket - https://polymarket.com/ fal - https://fal.ai Privy - https://www.privy.io Cognition - https://cognition.ai Gemini - https://gemini.google.com Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Jordi Hays?

  You're watching TVPN.

• 0:02John Coogan?

  Today is Tuesday, December 2nd, 2025. We are live from the TVPN UltraDome, the Temple of Technology, the Fortress of Finance, the Capital of Capital, ramp.com, baby. Time is money. Save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, whole lot more, all in one place.

• 0:18Jordi Hays?

  That's right.

• 0:19John Coogan?

  Why is no one talking about Armin Papager? He's the CEO of Rheinmetall, and they've been on an absolute tear. We're, of course, going to get to Code Red. We're going to talk about OpenAI, but we talk about OpenAI every day, basically. And I thought it'd be interesting to meet the CEO behind the world's fastest-growing defense company. It's on the cover of the business section of the Wall Street Journal.

• 0:45Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 0:45John Coogan?

  When I think high-growth defense companies, I usually think Anduril, or, you know, Saronic, or there's so many other companies that are growing very fast in defense tech. Rheinmetall's been on an absolute tear. They're now basically the same size as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics. And it was a small company just a few years ago. So Rheinmetall, they make, you can see the gun that they make in that picture. They make massive cannons, they make artillery shells. They've been very important to the Ukraine war. So in the last three years, they've been on an absolute tear. They've gone from roughly $5 billion market cap three years ago to $80 billion in market cap. We've got to ring the gong. We've got to warm up the gong.

• 1:32John Coogan?

  $80 billion market cap. They've been on a tear, but they had, and there's been like three, there's been basically three key drivers to the growth, to the story. We'll tell the story in three acts, as briefly as we can. And while we, while we do, we will say thank you to Gemini 3 Pro. Three-act story about Rheinmetall, three-act Gemini, Google's most intelligent model yet, state-of-the-art reasoning, next-level vibe coding, and deep multimodal understanding. So first, they had a head start. This company, they actually started over a century ago, 1889. Can you believe that? Very, very old. So they spend their first 25 years basically

• 2:14John Coogan?

  just stacking up ammo for the German Empire. This obviously comes to a head in 1914, when World War I breaks out. And at the time, the company was one of the largest arms manufacturers like they were, they were pretty, pretty big after 25 years of just stockpiling ammo, growing, growing, growing as a defense company. World War, World War One breaks out, but then after the war, they got to pivot, they got to pivot because the Treaty of Versailles forces them to switch to non-military products. They say, hey, you gotta build, make some trains. They get fixated on trains and also typewriters.

• 2:47Jordi Hays?

  Not the first.

• 2:48John Coogan?

  Not the first dudes to get fixated on some trains.

• 2:52Jordi Hays?

  Happens to the best of them.

• 2:53John Coogan?

  But they, but they have a good run. They stay in business. They keep making trains, locomotives particularly. You know, they're making big stuff. And then 20 years later, it's the mid 30s, 20, it's 1935, around there. They are, they're starting to get back into weapons and ammo production. They can't stay away. Who are they rearming? The Wehrmacht. And World War Two, obviously it's massive for production. They're printing, they're making lots of weapons. But by the end of the war, their facilities have basically been destroyed by areas. They need to rebuild the company from scratch. So after the second war, they get banned from making weapons again until 1950.

• 3:34Jordi Hays?

  Keeps happening.

• 3:35John Coogan?

  And so they have to go back to making typewriters. They keep getting relegated to typewriters. You guys, no more guns.

• 3:42Jordi Hays?

  That's enough.

• 3:42John Coogan?

  You have to make some typewriters. And so they get back into defense tech in the 50s, 60s. The German Armed Forces gets reestablished in 1956. And by 1979, Ryan Mottal is making 120 millimeter guns that go on Leopard tanks that you've probably seen in that image roughly. And so there's lots of M and A, lots of diversification over the next few decades. They expand into automotive and electronics. And that kind of brings us to the second act of the story, which is the Ukraine war. So Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th, 2022.

• 4:17John Coogan?

  About three years ago, Ryan Matal was around 5.5 billion market cap then. And three days later, Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany, Germany gives what's known as the Zeitenwende speech, which is literally translates to turning point. So he says, this is a turning point. Europe has been invaded. We now have a foreign army on European soil. Even though Ukraine's not part of NATO, it feels like, you know, Russia is expanding. If they keep, if they just keep going in the same direction, they're eventually going to be in our hometown. So we got to do something about it. And what does he propose? He doesn't just say, hey, this is a big deal. He says, no, we're actually going to invest $100 billion, like off balance sheet from some fund into defense tech. We're going to spend more money.

• 5:00John Coogan?

  And then, of course, there's a whole bunch of other initiatives that happen. There's the Trump negotiations around how much Europe should pay as a portion of GDP on, on defense. But basically it's this major turning point where Europe goes from spending, you know, sustainment levels. Okay, we're going to spend this much every year to we are going to double or triple or, you know, exponentially grow our spending and it's all going to be net new. So you can go and fight for it. And that's what Ryan Matal does. And so revenue has grown.

• 5:29Jordi Hays?

  Sort of born out of that era.

• 5:31John Coogan?

  Helsing is like the newer version of Ryan Matal. Ryan Matal is like the old, you know, roll up. It's been around for over 100 years. Helsing, I think.

• 5:38Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, Helsing was 2021, was most recently in the news because they raised, I think, $600 million from.

• 5:45John Coogan?

  Daniel Ek, right?

• 5:46Jordi Hays?

  Ek sparked controversy, of course, a lot of people in the Spotify world, world of music, just think that defense tech is deep.

• 5:55John Coogan?

  Oh, I didn't realize that there was actually backlash.

• 5:57Jordi Hays?

  Totally.

• 5:57John Coogan?

  I didn't see that.

• 5:58Jordi Hays?

  You know, if you're, if you're a.

• 6:00John Coogan?

  It makes sense.

• 6:01Jordi Hays?

  An artist and you, you know, believe in, in peace at all costs, you're going to probably be against that.

• 6:08John Coogan?

  But. Well, it depends. Maybe if you're, you know, POD.

• 6:13John Coogan?

  Or you're you're you're some other, you know, musician that was played during the war on terror. You could be very pro the Helsinki investment. Just events. But yes, I understand. Overall. So revenues grown 50% since 2022, and they are now guiding for sales. I think they do maybe around like 10 billion euros. I was kind of going back and forth on euros USD. But they're guiding for sales of $58 billion and an operating margin of more than 20% by 2030. So they have like almost AI growth level numbers of everything. It feels very similar where there's a there's a structural change in the way their business is going to work. Same thing as Eli Lilly, same story. There's a couple of these stocks where there's

• 6:57John Coogan?

  now sort of a mega trend and they are in position to capture a ton of value as long as they can execute. The the big question is, you know, what winds up happening. But the third leg of the stool, the third important piece in this story is the current CEO, the man no one was talking about until today, Armin Papager. He's been called a white haired Goliath. I love that. CNN randomly threw that.

• 7:23Jordi Hays?

  Can we pull up a picture?

• 7:24John Coogan?

  Just randomly threw that in.

• 7:25Jordi Hays?

  There he is.

• 7:26John Coogan?

  There's some other photos. And last year, he was targeted in an assassination plot by the Russians.

• 7:33Jordi Hays?

  What?

• 7:34John Coogan?

  So the CNN reported that Russia had made a series of plans to assassinate several defense industry executives all across Europe who were supporting Ukraine's war effort. And they also were planning to set up fires in different. There was an Ikea that got lit on fire. There were a number of different attacks. But fortunately, American intelligence discovered the plot and informed Germany in time to stop the attack. And now the white haired Goliath is.

• 8:02Jordi Hays?

  Ryan in the chat says, this feels like a pay dad. I can assure you it's not. John woke up this morning, we were at the gym, and he's like, why is no one talking about Rhymatol? And decided to write about it in the in the in the newsletter today.

• 8:16John Coogan?

  That's funny. No, he's on the cover of the Wall Street Journal. And so.

• 8:23John Coogan?

  So they stopped the attack and so Russia clearly sees Armin Papager as a critical to the European defense ecosystem, but separately, there is a debate over how like where the business goes over the next few years because on the one hand, like the NATO inventory requirements are growing a lot. That's going to drive a lot of net new demand for military equipment purchases and the market's been historically undersupplied. But on the flip side, Rheinmetall may or may not be able to absorb as much of the demand as they're planning to. They have lots of integration to do between all their different acquisitions. And also with a potential end to the Ukraine war.

• 9:03Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it feels like the stock would just immediately trade down on news of a peace deal.

• 9:09John Coogan?

  And it has even on rumors of a peace deal. Yeah, exactly.

• 9:11Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it's down 15% over the last month.

• 9:14John Coogan?

  Yeah. But they're scaling up in the Wall Street Journal. It says earlier this year, Armin Papager opened a new factory that will allow his company to produce more of an essential caliber of artillery shell than the entire US defense industry combined. Surrounded that day by dignitaries, including the head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, the Rheinmetall CEO is riding a wave of post-Cold War military spending that is reshaping the global arms trade. Rheinmetall is now the world's fastest growing large defense company and a key player in Europe's quest to rearm its home country. Germany is shedding its post-war reticence on military spending to lead the charge to capitalize.

• 9:55John Coogan?

  Papager has pushed the once obscure gun barrel maker into almost every part of the battlefield, from satellites to warships. And that's what people are kind of saying about, oh, there's a lot of acquisitions, there's a lot of new projects, there's a lot of new deals. Like, you know, the gun barrels, they've been doing that for 136 years. Satellites, they're kind of newer to it. Do they have the lineage? Do they have the experience? Can they stick the landing on those contracts? The money's certainly there, but is the expertise there? That's the big question. So his goal is to create a go-to defense company with the heft and breadth to rival the American giants that have dominated the industry since World War II. And if he's writing any software, he's got to get on graphite.dev code review for the age of AI.

• 10:40John Coogan?

  Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. Ryan Matal's stock is up 15x since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, giving a market cap of 80 billion, roughly on par with US rivals. And when he took over the job, he started this job in 2013, so he's been CEO of Ryan Matal for 12 years. The company was 1.6 billion. Overnight success. Overnight success is right. Sort of like what happened with Lisa Su. You know, she's 10x that stock. I mean, the funny thing is that Jensen's also 10x Nvidia in that time. But the Lisa Su story is a little bit more impressive because AMD was really like down

• 11:21John Coogan?

  in the dumps and she has turned that company around fantastically. But back to Ryan Matal. This month, Ryan Matal set out ambitions to quintuple sales by the end of the decade to the equivalent of roughly $58 billion. Pat Berger, reflecting on his long tenure at the company, told investors that seeing such figures was like a wonder world. It's a wonder world. I love when an executive is speaking a different language and it just doesn't quite translate. Like, is that what we say?

• 11:51Jordi Hays?

  Kind of get the gist.

• 11:52John Coogan?

  I get the gist. He's happy. I'm happy for him. You know, good job.

• 11:57Jordi Hays?

  We had a buddy of ours who, actually, I'm just gonna, I'm gonna name, I'm gonna name, I'm gonna name him, I was gonna keep him anonymous, but it's just too funny.

• 12:06John Coogan?

  Somebody's proposing, 2.6 is proposing the TBPN x Standard Oil x Ryan Matal collab.

• 12:13Jordi Hays?

  We were texting with Sean Frank and Connor McDonald at The Ridge yesterday about how their Black Friday Cyber Monday went and they shared a bit on it. And Sean ends it and says, "Bro, the future is beautiful and I am so happy to be alive." It's like incredible reaction to a successful Black Friday.

• 12:34John Coogan?

  I'm so glad it went well for them. I mean, the Wall Street Journal did report that. On a busy Cyber Monday outage at Shopify halts transactions. Shopify experienced an outage on Cyber Monday that interrupted transactions for some merchants, but it sounded like Ridge was not affected?

• 12:48Jordi Hays?

  Well, so it was the the the real issue is the admin panel went down.

• 12:53John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 12:54Jordi Hays?

  Freaked a lot of people out because you're not able to log in and like see what's happening.

• 12:57John Coogan?

  Yeah, of course. And and also, like, even if even if everything's working as as standard, as expected, like, that's the day you're just refreshing the admin panel all day. Like, because you're just like, how much money am I making? Like, this is really critical, right?

• 13:09Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. So, yeah, there were there were some some reports that a that a handful of merchants had actually had features on their site go down.

• 13:16John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:17Jordi Hays?

  I didn't see any.

• 13:17John Coogan?

  I didn't see a ton of people saying like, I lost my Cyber Monday. But obviously, the the good folks at Shopify will obviously be working extra hard to resolve any of this and and provide a proper postmortem. Overall, it does seem like Cyber Mondays and Black Friday, Black Friday, Cyber Monday broadly just went very well. Like, it just it just seems like consumer confidence was up, revenue was up, spending was up.

• 13:43Jordi Hays?

  Harley had a post, he said, total global Black Friday, Cyber Monday sales by Shopify merchants over the last five years, 2021 was 6.3 billion, 2022 was 7.5 billion, 2023 was 9.3 billion, 2024 11.5 billion, and then 2025 14.6 billion. So, combination of execution at the at the company level and execution at the Shopify level, and then obviously the market plays a big role as well.

• 14:11John Coogan?

  Yeah, it it really did seem like like things are just broadly going well, or at least okay. I think everyone's sort of like nervous with with crypto up and down and is there an AI bubble and how big of a bubble, what will happen?

• 14:28Jordi Hays?

  Somewhat of a code red going on.

• 14:30John Coogan?

  It has been a code red.

• 14:31Jordi Hays?

  One part of the world. Before we jump into that story.

• 14:33John Coogan?

  Profound, get your brand mentioned in ChatGPT, reach millions of consumers, use AI to discover new products and brands.

• 14:39Jordi Hays?

  I was gonna say, kind of, the Anduril was covered in the Wall Street Journal.

• 14:45John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 14:45Jordi Hays?

  The Wall Street Journal's been been doing quite a lot of defense tech coverage. Anduril, they had been talking about their approach of not using government funding for testing purposes, which historically, company would get a contract and then they would work to actually make it, and the government was effectively funding R and D. Anduril has a more traditional like venture style model where they raise VC dollars. They spend that money to test and develop products. And so they gave a quote that was like, we do fail a lot.

• 15:17John Coogan?

  We do fail a lot.

• 15:19Jordi Hays?

  The extra context that was necessary was that that's not happening on the on the taxpayers dime.

• 15:26John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 15:26Jordi Hays?

  And it's part of their, you know, approach of doing rapid iteration and sort of like going according to plan. Of course, that was taken out of context and turned into a headline that was, we do fail a lot. And not so dissimilar from what has happened to OpenAI in the last 24 hours where it sounds like an internal, internal meeting was leaked. We are wondering like, what is it?

• 15:51John Coogan?

  We can, yeah, let's, let's actually, let's actually reel a little bit more on the, on the Wall Street Journal Anduril thing.

• 15:57Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 15:58John Coogan?

  Because I think it's interesting and I want to go into some of the response, like how they responded to this. First, let me tell you about cognition, the team behind the AI software engineer Devon. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. So Wall Street Journal came out with this story, we do fail, dot, dot, dot, a lot. It's a very funny quote. I actually think it's an awesome quote. We'll get into it. I think that they should put on T-shirts and hats. Like, I think it's actually a very.

• 16:24Jordi Hays?

  It's their next campaign.

• 16:25John Coogan?

  I think it's a very key cultural. I think it's like a don't work at Anduril type moment. It makes a ton of sense in terms of like the, the culture of like fail fast. This is, this is not new in Silicon Valley and yet it's still being reframed as new. It's, I'm surprised that there's like alpha here still. But let's see, Palmer Lucky says, the valid reasons for slowness are bureaucratic BS and cowardly executives who cater to snide analysts and public market outlets like WSJ that have nothing to say about years late programs and everything to say about a fire that covered 0.0002% of our test site. I'm not even exaggerating. That's the real number.

• 17:04John Coogan?

  It is exactly what anyone would expect from testing a system that violently blasts lithium powered drones out of the sky. This is what weapons development should look like. Heck, Camp Pendleton has over 200 fires per year on their training range and that is with fully mature weapon systems. Going on and on about this for paragraphs is so pathetic.

• 17:23Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, almost.

• 17:24John Coogan?

  Oh, no.

• 17:24Jordi Hays?

  Getting, getting close to a fire every single weekday.

• 17:27John Coogan?

  Yeah, they obtained satellite imagery that reveals the damage to the grass on the weapons test range. The other, the other examples of this story are similarly absurd.

• 17:40Jordi Hays?

  John, you're telling me that the grass was damaged at the explosives testing ground?

• 17:45John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:46Jordi Hays?

  You're telling me something.

• 17:47John Coogan?

  It is very funny the way.

• 17:48Jordi Hays?

  You're telling me there was an explosion at the weapons testing facility?

• 17:51John Coogan?

  Yeah, it was wild. The, the other examples in this story are similarly, uh, silly absurd. Oh, no, an engine sucked in a piece of FOD, stop the presses. Autonomous boat behaves exactly as designed and stops moving when it receives a faulty command. And are all hit by a pattern of setbacks. It's just so pathetic, the type of thing that can only be written and taken seriously by people who have no idea how hardware development actually works. And of course, a few other folks in the, in the ecosystem chimed in mainly. There's a good post here from Blake Scholl, founder of Boom Supersonic. He says, "If you plan to pass every development test, you'll move slowly and expensively. It's optimal to fail many dev tests.

• 18:33John Coogan?

  Selective, quote, "outtake into headline suggests a hatchet job, not an honest report on an attempt to do things differently and better." Yeah, I, I still just think the, uh, the, "We do fail a lot" is just, it's so ripe for a billboard campaign, a T-shirt, a hat or something because, uh, it, if you, like, the whole thing with Silicon Valley is that you should fail 99 times.

• 18:58Jordi Hays?

  Get knocked down and get up again.

• 18:59John Coogan?

  And succeed once, because if you succeed once and fail 99 times, it's a million times better, it's infinitely better than zero, zero failures, zero successes. Like, like you will take a ton of failure for one success. And that's the whole, that's the whole ethos.

• 19:15Jordi Hays?

  That's the American ethos.

• 19:16John Coogan?

  That's the, yeah, it's the American ethos, it's the technology ethos. It's, it, it, there's a lot there. Anyway, um, back to, uh, oh, actually, we, we can wrap up with, uh, you can go read the Wall Street Journal report on Armin Papager, if you, Papager, if you want. We gotta figure out how to pronounce his name. He did have one, uh, one fun line in here, uh, which was, uh, what did he say? He said something like, uh, He said, referring to, so now he's, you know, basically the same value as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, and he said, on the US companies, he said, "They come to me." 10 years ago, it was a different story. And so he's, he's just flexing the fact that like,

• 19:58John Coogan?

  he's now big enough that he, he deter, he, he requires like, you can go visit him, because he's like, made it.

• 20:04Jordi Hays?

  Always a good sign.

• 20:05John Coogan?

  Yeah, he's, he's, he's taken a little victory lap. And there's some other funny things in here, but you can go read that. Let me tell you about Linear. Meet the system for modern software development. Linear streamlines work across the entire development cycle, from roadmap to release. So let's head over to red alert territory.

• 20:26Jordi Hays?

  Gavin Baker responding to the reporting says, "October, 1.4 trillion in spending commitments. November, rough vibes. And December, code red. Life comes at you fast." It certainly has felt, it certainly has felt fast, ever since that fateful podcast.

• 20:47John Coogan?

  Yes, that was a crazy turning point.

• 20:50Jordi Hays?

  Although there was, there was plenty of conversation, you know, prior to that around, around what the trajectory of OpenAI would actually look like.

• 21:01John Coogan?

  Yeah, it's, it's hard to actually understand the full nuance here. Like, somebody in the, in the replies, "A rational analysis." Insane, @insaneanalyst, what a crazy handle. Says, "Debt obligations come at you fast." And it's like, that's not really what's happening here. Like, like, the, the, the code red, like, leak from this, the, the information reported, it was clearly like some sort of all hands that Sam Altman was, you know, holding a town hall with the rest of the OpenAI team. And he's kind of just saying, like, "Lock in." That's what he should have said. Never say "code red." You gotta say lock in brothers, lock in.

• 21:36Jordi Hays?

  Don't say rough vibes.

• 21:38John Coogan?

  Don't say rough vibes.

• 21:39Jordi Hays?

  Code red.

• 21:40John Coogan?

  Say lock in, say we're, we're taking that hill. We're storming their fortress. We will grind Google Gemini team into paste with, and we will crush our enemies. We will see them driven before us.

• 21:52Jordi Hays?

  Hospitals learned this lesson.

• 21:53John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 21:54Jordi Hays?

  They did say code red.

• 21:55John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 21:55Jordi Hays?

  That meant there was a fire.

• 21:56John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 21:57Jordi Hays?

  In the hospital, uh, and that you would probably want to figure out a way to get out.

• 22:01John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 22:01Jordi Hays?

  Uh, they started, is it code blue?

• 22:04John Coogan?

  Yeah, now, now they will say code blue. So if you hear code blue in a hospital.

• 22:08Jordi Hays?

  Yell code red.

• 22:09John Coogan?

  You need to be worried. You need to worry, but maybe, maybe, okay, steel man, steel man here. Maybe Sam Altman was using code red in the hospital sense. He didn't say code blue. If he had said code blue, we should be really worried. But he said code red. So he's saying it's not that bad.

• 22:28Jordi Hays?

  But don't you think they just retired? They, I think they just retired.

• 22:32John Coogan?

  Yeah. So he's saying, I'm, I'm using retired phrase. I'm not, I'm not saying code blue. If, if I was saying code blue.

• 22:38Jordi Hays?

  Code brown, which is a hazardous spill.

• 22:40John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 22:41Jordi Hays?

  Which Gemini three spilled on the timeline. It's very hazardous. We got a code brown.

• 22:46John Coogan?

  Yeah, we got a code brown.

• 22:47Jordi Hays?

  Um.

• 22:49John Coogan?

  That's a crazy, is that real or is that some like meme joke?

• 22:52Jordi Hays?

  No, this is, no, no, I'm reading the hospital emergency code.

• 22:55John Coogan?

  Okay, okay. Well, anyway, uh, let me tell you about Restream. One live stream, 30 plus destinations. If you want to multi-stream, go to restream.com. Ching. Um, no, I, I think, I think if you're, if you're, if you're a CEO who's under incredible scrutiny, like you're Sam Altman, and you have beat reporters at this point who are texting your employees every single day, hey, what's going on? What's on the ground? Give me a quote. What happened?

• 23:21Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. So to give people, to give people context, they're, the beat reporter, a beat reporter might reach out to, they will actually adopt the strategy of just trying to wear someone down, where they will send hundreds of messages to individual people on, on the team, just over and over and over relentless, like email, cell phone, Instagram DM, LinkedIn, just like constantly, constantly, constantly flooding, hoping that at some point this person just says like, fine, like I'll, I'll, I'll chat with you.

• 23:52John Coogan?

  The name beat reporter comes from them trying to beat you down. That's the whole point.

• 23:55Jordi Hays?

  Is that true?

• 23:56John Coogan?

  That's where it comes from.

• 23:57Jordi Hays?

  No way. You're messing with me?

• 24:01John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 24:01Jordi Hays?

  Okay, okay, okay.

• 24:03John Coogan?

  I have no idea, but I like the idea of it's like they just try and beat down your employees.

• 24:08Jordi Hays?

  It's like that.

• 24:08John Coogan?

  They're trying to beat you down. I got a beat reporter on my team.

• 24:11Jordi Hays?

  I was like.

• 24:12John Coogan?

  On my tail.

• 24:12Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 24:13John Coogan?

  Yeah, no.

• 24:14Jordi Hays?

  God.

• 24:16Jordi Hays?

  I mean, it's certainly what it's what it's become.

• 24:18John Coogan?

  There is a little bit of it. No, no, I think there's beat reporting, there's gumshoe reporting. Gumshoe reporting is where you report and you're actually walking around the town so much that you get gum on your shoes. That's the idea. It's like you're on the ground reporting, you're walking around the city, you're getting, you're talking to people. And then I think like a beat cop and beat reporting is like you're on a beat, like it's a drumbeat. Like every day you report on the same thing. And so it's about consistency. It's not, it's not, you're laughing at now.

• 24:49Jordi Hays?

  Ryan in the chat, if you work at an AI startup and you aren't drinking Mountain Dew Code Red every day, you aren't going to make it. What if Sam was talking?

• 24:56John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 24:56Jordi Hays?

  What if he was just saying, we gotta lock in? We gotta lock in. I bought us a bunch of Code Red.

• 25:01John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 25:01Jordi Hays?

  I want you all drinking it every day.

• 25:03John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 25:04Jordi Hays?

  It's time to really focus.

• 25:06John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 25:07Jordi Hays?

  And, and of course that snippet got pulled up. I just want to know what, what, what person on the, on the OpenAI team thinks it's in their best interest to be in a meeting like that and then just go share inflammatory quotes on said meeting?

• 25:22John Coogan?

  Just leave. Just, just, just go make 10 times as much money in a different lab. You know, if you, if you don't like your employer, just bounce and make more money. Why are you, why are you sitting there leaking and, and just dragging your company down? Don't you have stock options?

• 25:38Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that's, I'm so, I'm so confused.

• 25:40John Coogan?

  It's a mole. There's a mole. There's someone inside the organization who's working against them or something. I don't know. Seems rough. Anyway, there is some praise for OpenAI on the timeline, which we should get to from none other than Blake Robbins. Blake says, OpenAI is operating on a different level. Play that sound cue, Jordy.

• 26:02John Coogan?

  The amount they have shipped in the past few weeks and months is incredible. Feels like we are witnessing a generational run. This was on October 6.

• 26:11Jordi Hays?

  Okay, this was on October 6th. Sora was, I think, number one in the charts at that point.

• 26:15John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 26:16Jordi Hays?

  It's now 21.

• 26:17John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 26:18Jordi Hays?

  Pulse was, got some excitement early on, but I think people are a little bit not feeling like as excited.

• 26:27John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 26:28Jordi Hays?

  Atlas launched.

• 26:29John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 26:30Jordi Hays?

  And then it's hard to really gauge what, what adoption has been like. I, I, I know some people that, that love it.

• 26:38John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 26:39Jordi Hays?

  But.

• 26:40John Coogan?

  So Eric Suft on October 6th, quote tweeted Blake Robbins and kind of summed it up. I think he said, indeed impressive, but the scattershot nature raises questions about the company's discipline and ability to support these disparate initiatives. Is OpenAI a frontier research lab, a social network operator, a commerce engine, a hardware company, because it's hard to do all of that well? And then Eric goes back and finds his old.

• 27:10Jordi Hays?

  And they're trying to, they're, they're still like very much care about competing in CodeGen, right?

• 27:15John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 27:15Jordi Hays?

  It wasn't even listed there. And so, so if you go back, if you go back to the BG2 interview or just the BG interview, Sam, Sam's answer to the question of how are you going to support the 1.4 trillion of commitments was, we're automating science and we're making, and we're make, and we're making like a consumer electronics. And the reason that that, that didn't, to me, that, that was kind of like a concerning answer because.

• 27:46John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 27:46Jordi Hays?

  Google has been doing those things for years.

• 27:49John Coogan?

  Yeah, but they've earned the right because they have 25 years.

• 27:52Jordi Hays?

  Funding it with massive cash flow.

• 27:53John Coogan?

  Yeah, hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue and, and so much cash just to go around and like, it's always been this like academic lab and this sort of like environment where they do side projects, but they've just, they, I think before they started any of that, they had firmly established themselves as like the go-to.

• 28:13John Coogan?

  Search engine and they

• 28:15Jordi Hays?

  They were funding that with cash. So they were funding these initiatives with cash flow.

• 28:18John Coogan?

  I believe so.

• 28:18Jordi Hays?

  And even though they've been doing it for this long, it's not like Sundar is going out there and saying, guys, we're actually going to do it. We're going to do an extra hundred billion next year because we're automating science. And we're, uh, we're, we're doing this, this new, uh, consumer electronic device.

• 28:33John Coogan?

  Yeah, no, no, it is, it is crazy. Uh, let's continue. First, let me tell you about Privy. Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions, integrate on-chain infrastructure all through one simple API. Uh, I have, I have a plan. And this comes from the chat, of course. Uh, if Sam Altman really wants to set the record straight, everyone's saying code red, oh, code red, it's so bad. He needs to come out with a statement. We're going to Baja blast Gemini out of the App Store.

• 29:02John Coogan?

  If he says our plan is to Baja blast Gemini and Anthropic into the minor leagues of AI research, uh, I think he just wins completely. What do you think?

• 29:15Speaker 02

  I, I think they're, they're underestimating the, the possibility that, um, code red, it was actually, red was past tense of read.

• 29:22John Coogan?

  Oh, okay.

• 29:22Speaker 02

  The code that was read by the model.

• 29:24John Coogan?

  Oh, yes, yes, yes.

• 29:25Speaker 02

  What was the code red?

• 29:26John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 29:27Speaker 02

  In this scenario.

• 29:27John Coogan?

  It might've been REAT.

• 29:28Speaker 02

  They were talking about the next agent model that was doing.

• 29:31John Coogan?

  Yes, yes, yes. I, I have read the code and, and we're ready for the next, uh, pre-training run. I listened to Mark Chen on Ashley Vance's Core Memory Podcast. It's very good. You should go listen. Also, Ashley has a new, a new YouTube channel for Core Memory Podcasts. So if you want to find it, head over there. Um, and, uh, and it was interesting. Uh, Mark Chen, uh, I really liked the way he runs that organization. I liked a lot of things he had to say. He had some funny, funny takes, uh, some funny anecdotes, basically just saying, you know, he's extremely competitive. He doesn't want to lose. He's, he's, he's, you know, going all out right now and that one of the ways he's dealt

• 30:11John Coogan?

  with the talent wars is to just go to everyone on his team and say, hey, uh, I'm not going to match dollar for dollar with Meta. Like if you want to make 10 times as much money, yeah, you're free to leave. Like you can just go, but we are on a mission here. We're a team and we think what we're building is so big that in the long term, we will be better. We will be better. We will be bigger. And he also clarified, interestingly, that

• 30:36John Coogan?

  Although there was a big raid and a lot of people from OpenAI did go to Meta, he was saying like, there's been, there's been, he was basically like, there's a lot of poaching that's happened from OpenAI generally. Like, whenever someone starts a new lab, they always go to OpenAI. They're like, we need at least one OpenAI guy to know how they do it, right? Makes a lot of sense. He also said he didn't lose a single direct report. I don't know exactly how many direct reports he has, but he was saying that he didn't lose a single direct report. So, maybe that's like, maybe he's trying to say, okay, there were people that were

• 31:05Jordi Hays?

  His loyal lieutenants.

• 31:07John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, his lieutenant stuck around. It was sort of interesting. But, he did say that he also, he sort of echoed Cholto and said that he believes that pre-training, there's still low-hanging fruit there, that OpenAI will be doing new pre-training runs, that they have seen that scaling is holding, that there's no plateau.

• 31:29Jordi Hays?

  He also said they have models internally that outperform Gemini on benchmarks.

• 31:35John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 31:36Jordi Hays?

  And, obviously, he caveated that by saying benchmarks aren't the only thing that matter.

• 31:41John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 31:41Jordi Hays?

  So I do think, I mean, it's worth sharing.

• 31:44John Coogan?

  Let's play, let's actually play this clip from Ashley Vance here. Says, "OpenAI has seen Gemini 3 and is both moved and not." We sat down with OpenAI's research chief, Mark Chen90.

• 31:57Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah. So, to speak to Gemini 3 specifically, you know, it's a pretty good model. And I think, one thing we do is try to build consensus, you know. The benchmarks only tell you so much. And, just looking purely at the benchmarks, you know, we actually felt quite confident. You know, we have models internally that perform at the level of Gemini 3 and we're pretty confident that we will release them soon and we can release successor models that are even better. But yeah, again, kind of the benchmarks only tell you so much. And, you know, I think everyone probes the models in their own way. There is this math problem I like to give the models.

• 32:40John Coogan?

  This is funny.

• 32:41Speaker 03

  I think so far, none of them has quite cracked it, even the thinking models. So, yeah, I'll wait for that.

• 32:47John Coogan?

  Is this like a secret math problem?

• 32:49Speaker 03

  Oh, no, no, no. Well, if I announce it here, maybe it gets trained on.

• 32:53John Coogan?

  It's gonna get so saturated.

• 32:54Speaker 03

  So, to speak to Gemini 3 specifically, you know, it's a pretty good model. And I think

• 33:00John Coogan?

  I think this is looping.

• 33:01Speaker 03

  One thing we

• 33:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 33:05John Coogan?

  Having a secret math problem that you give every model to assess it is pretty elite. I keep reflecting on like, so let's read what Prins is saying here. So new interview with Mark Chen from OpenAI. Ashley Vance, the interviewer, has apparently been spending a lot of time at OpenAI, including sitting in on meetings. He seems to be writing a book, and he seems to think that OpenAI has made some huge advance in pre-training. Pre-training seems like this area where it seems like you've figured something out, you're excited about it, you think this is going to be a major advance. Mark doesn't spill the beans, though. He says, "We think there's a lot of room in pre-training. A lot of people say scaling dead is dead. We don't think so at all." Big question

• 33:45John Coogan?

  about what that means. Is that scaling RL? Is that scaling dollars in? Is it, oh yeah, if you invest $100 trillion, you can give it one more IQ point. It's like, yeah, that would be an example of scaling holding, but no one's going to make that trade-off. No one is going to be like, "Yeah, I'm down. Totally. Spend the $100 trillion."

• 34:06Jordi Hays?

  Okay, so what Sam said in the internal Slack memo.

• 34:10John Coogan?

  Oh, it was a Slack memo?

• 34:12Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 34:12John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 34:13Jordi Hays?

  Because he was directing more employees to focus on improving features of ChatGPT, such as personalizing the chatbot for more than 800 million people. And again, we've seen them launch more functionality around this. I think the theory is that this could be a very like, make the product really, really sticky. Whether or not that's true generally is still unclear. It's certainly, people have been very loyal to 4O. Altman also said, this is in the information's piece.

• 34:43John Coogan?

  Did he mention Baja Blast?

• 34:45Jordi Hays?

  He hasn't specifically said Baja Blast, but I think he's kind of alluding to it.

• 34:52John Coogan?

  He's warming up to talking about Baja Blast.

• 34:55Jordi Hays?

  Other key priorities covered by the code red include ImageGen, the image generating AI that allows users to create variety of photos. You had included in your newsletter last week that you've been going over to Gemini specifically for Nano Banana.

• 35:09John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 35:10Jordi Hays?

  So I wonder if this is.

• 35:11John Coogan?

  Yeah, we were debating this. Does this actually matter? I think it does. I think that the image generation functionality, fundamentally what.

• 35:23John Coogan?

  L L Ms are doing, what these chatbots are doing is they're, they're basically instantiating full webpages. They should be able to instantiate anything that you could possibly land on, whether it's a video, an image, a blog post with images embedded, an audio format. Like, it should be able to, like, not just understand everything and give you the answer, but it should be able to contextualize that answer in any format. And so I do think being able to generate images at the top shelf, top tier way. The big question we were talking to Tyler was, should they say, hey, we're just going to use Nano Banana? Which is like a crazy thing, but you know, there is a world where they say like, hey, yeah, like, we're not going to focus on that. We're going to, we're, we're actually going to just vend

• 36:07John Coogan?

  in Nano Banana, but we are going to be the, the front door, the aggregator, and we're just going to be the, the, the, uh, the, the actual-

• 36:15Jordi Hays?

  Our used runway in the background, right?

• 36:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Hand it off to a different team potentially. I, I don't know. It seems, it seems like that's probably a little bit too close to home. But Ben Thompson has had this, uh, this, this claim for a while that potentially, uh, OpenAI has, has a stronghold on the consumer market to the point where if they swapped out the underlying model, they would still accrue tons of the value because people don't really know what model is which. Like, I think the average user doesn't do it. But first, Tyler has a-

• 36:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I think that especially makes sense in the context of images and video because they're just so expensive. Like, I think a Nano, Nano Pro image is like, I think it's like 10 cents.

• 36:55John Coogan?

  No way.

• 36:56Speaker 02

  It's really, or, okay, that might be per like a thousand or something. But it's still, it's still, they're really expensive. Videos are even more expensive. Videos are like really, really expensive. So I think it makes more sense in that scenario because you would imagine that it's just like so expensive to, to vend it yourself. It's like you're spending so much resources on that.

• 37:15John Coogan?

  Yeah. We have to look at this. I, I believe this is Nano Banana. Let me see if I can find this. Uh, this Nano Banana, uh, Pro image that, uh, let me see if we can pull this up. It's, uh, it's from John Gregor Chuck. It says, architects are cooked. AI is coming for you. Prepare accordingly. Have you seen this, Jordy?

• 37:37Jordi Hays?

  I did see that.

• 37:38John Coogan?

  You did see this one?

• 37:39Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 37:39John Coogan?

  Did you look at the image closely?

• 37:42Jordi Hays?

  Uh, no.

• 37:42John Coogan?

  Okay, so.

• 37:43Jordi Hays?

  Is it, is it?

• 37:44John Coogan?

  It's one of the funniest images I've ever seen. So basically thi- this image.

• 37:48Jordi Hays?

  It's like a, it has a walkway with like a 40 foot drop to the ground.

• 37:53John Coogan?

  I mean, it's not quite that bad, but it's, it's close.

• 37:55Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I just, I just.

• 37:58Jordi Hays?

  I, I, I didn't, I don't buy the, the, the theory that architects are, are cooked. Uh, just because you can generate like a floor plan or, uh, or, uh, designs for a home, just, just because the actual process is, uh,

• 38:16Jordi Hays?

  you're dealing with the city, basically, right? And you're trying to get things permitted.

• 38:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 38:20Jordi Hays?

  And it's not, it's not like the problem is just making pretty designs, right?

• 38:23John Coogan?

  It's the classic, uh, let me see. Uh, I'm trying to put this in the, in the chat. Uh, it, it, it's the classic like, uh, you know, is the radiologist's job just to look at images and detect cancer? No, it's way more than that. Okay, so this is the image and I was actually crying laughing because the, uh, the, the, the, the, the tagline is architects are cooked. AI is coming for you, prepare accordingly. And you see this and it's like this AI generated image and it looks like remarkable, like.

• 38:54Jordi Hays?

  Looks like a floor plan.

• 38:55John Coogan?

  It looks like a floor plan. It looks amazing, like it looks like, okay, yeah, that's like, all the lines are straight. We used to be in the era of like, any, any text would be typo'd and there would just be crazy lines everywhere. Uh, but you zoom in and it's like one of the funniest layouts ever because you realize that it's just, it's just one massive room. With, with, with like three or four. Okay, so first off, okay, so you come in through the two car garage. Then there's a powder room, so.

• 39:24Jordi Hays?

  The mudroom.

• 39:24John Coogan?

  So, so first off, there's this mudroom lawn, mudroom and laundry with two bathtubs in it. Scroll up to the right, okay, scroll, yeah, right there. So why do you have two bathtubs next to your coat closet, right?

• 39:35Jordi Hays?

  In the mudroom.

• 39:36John Coogan?

  In the mudroom. And then, and also like, you can't go, normally you come out of garage, you go straight into the mudroom. But here you have to go into the main area, which is the gallery hall. And then you go from there into there. And so scroll to the left a little bit so we can see the floor.

• 39:49Jordi Hays?

  What is the coat?

• 39:50John Coogan?

  Then why?

• 39:51Jordi Hays?

  What is a coat bathroom?

• 39:52John Coogan?

  There's a powder room and then there's the

• 39:54Jordi Hays?

  The coat bathroom with two toilets?

• 39:57John Coogan?

  Two toilets next to each other. Remember we were touring that facility and it had two, it had two, two bathrooms right next to each other with no line next to it?

• 40:05Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. We were, we in the, in the, in the office, in the, in the crazy office that had the machine. Uh, one of the bathrooms just had, it was like, it was like meant to be a private bathroom. Uh, and it just had two toilets there. We were like, why the two toilets?

• 40:20John Coogan?

  Yeah. So it's like, so, so you come in through your main foyer, then there's a master bathroom. Then there's a coat bathroom with two more toilets. And then there's a huge walk-in closet, which isn't even directly attached to anything else. So you have to like go through this corridor to get to the rest. And so this master suite has three toilets, but then it gets better, dude. It gets better. So go over to the top right-hand side, because this is, so this, look at bedroom number two. It's just like off the center. Then bedroom number three is there. Then there's a Jack and Jill bath, then scroll down.

• 40:56Jordi Hays?

  Wait, three, three sinks?

• 41:00John Coogan?

  Three sinks, no toilets. And then there's another bathroom and then there's a third.

• 41:08John Coogan?

  Third bathroom with a toilet.

• 41:10Jordi Hays?

  This is.

• 41:11John Coogan?

  With five sinks.

• 41:14Jordi Hays?

  This is, you might not like it, John, but this is, this is, this is architecture at its best.

• 41:20John Coogan?

  Yeah, you have, you have five, you have five, five sinks next to your two bedrooms, which, and then also bedroom two doesn't have a, doesn't have a bed.

• 41:29Jordi Hays?

  Anything. It just connects, it opens into the gourmet kitchen.

• 41:35John Coogan?

  But then if you scroll down, if you scroll down, you can see that there's like this huge walk guest suite. What is the huge walk guest suite? And then you have this like massive dining room. That just makes no sense. And then down at the bottom to, to, to kick it off. Uh, there's, uh, of course, like the great room that's directly tied into the kitchen with this, just the most open floor plan you can possibly imagine. And then if you scroll down, you'll see that there's like just these windows that like, like all of a sudden.

• 42:01Jordi Hays?

  Trevor in the chat says bathroom scaling loss.

• 42:04John Coogan?

  Why, why, why are all of a sudden the doors like vertical instead of, this is supposed to be a top-down image. And now I'm looking at these doors and they're like presented.

• 42:12Jordi Hays?

  What did the comments say? Did the comments say like, hey buddy, why, why'd you put? You know, three sinks in that one bathroom.

• 42:19John Coogan?

  Well, everyone, everyone gets that it's a joke.

• 42:22Jordi Hays?

  Oh, it was meant to be, it was meant to be a joke.

• 42:25John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 42:25Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 42:26John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, uh, thi- this, this John guy like totally thinks it's so funny and, uh, and he's just like joking around and, and so everyone's just like nightmare fuel, like this is crazy. And, uh, John's making the same joke. It's super convenient off the open floor plan. No kitchen toilet.

• 42:42John Coogan?

  Like, and then people just joking about all the different stuff. And, uh, I don't know. I mean, you know, is, is, is AI going to help with, you know, architectural design? Of course. Uh, is it, is Nano Banana going to randomly one-shot like the perfect floor plan? No, also no. Uh, but you know, of course there's, there's stuff that's, that's the funniest image.

• 43:06John Coogan?

  So funny. Uh, anyway, I was, I was actually dying laughing at, at this thing.

• 43:11Jordi Hays?

  Okay, back, back to the code red.

• 43:13John Coogan?

  Bant, automatic compliance and security, AI that powers everything from evidence collection to in continuous and continuous monitoring to security reviews and vendor risk.

• 43:24Jordi Hays?

  Didi Das is adding fuel to the fire.

• 43:26John Coogan?

  Fuel of fire.

• 43:27Jordi Hays?

  He says, this is why OpenAI is in code red. In the two weeks since the Gemini launched, ChatGPT, unique daily active users, a seven day average are down 6%. He is sharing, to be clear, web traffic data.

• 43:42John Coogan?

  Ah, these, these traffic sources are so rough. I just feel like people use apps. Like, like the web traffic is probably a good proxy. It's probably a decent proxy. But even then, I, I just, I don't know how, how high intent those users are. Cause it's like, do you think you're being tracked by similar web that effectively? Like, I would hope that I don't have that much spyware on my Chrome browser that

• 44:07Jordi Hays?

  Oh, I'm sure.

• 44:07John Coogan?

  knows exactly where I am. Maybe it does, but I would think that, you know, OpenAI and Gemini and Google would be like, yeah, we're not, we're not letting you put a pixel on our site.

• 44:18Jordi Hays?

  Do you know, do, do?

• 44:21John Coogan?

  We should have, we should have someone from SimilarWeb on the show, explain it to us.

• 44:24Jordi Hays?

  Tell us your sources.

• 44:25John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 44:25Jordi Hays?

  Tell us everything.

• 44:26John Coogan?

  How do you actually calculate all this stuff? Because, I mean, you could just poll people, you could just ask a million people, hey, what are you using? Right? I don't think that's how this works. But, uh.

• 44:36Jordi Hays?

  I wonder, I wonder if any of the Chrome extensions sell your data? I'm sure, I'm sure.

• 44:41John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 44:42Jordi Hays?

  A number of them.

• 44:44John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, I have this, uh, I have this Chrome extension installed right now, TBPN Timeline Viewer. It was vibe-coded by someone sitting over there. He doesn't even know what programming language it was written in.

• 44:57Jordi Hays?

  This is not true.

• 44:58John Coogan?

  Do I, did I ever tell this story on the show?

• 45:01Jordi Hays?

  I don't know.

• 45:01John Coogan?

  So, Tyler doesn't want to tell it. So Tyler gives us this, uh, we use a Chrome plugin to, to like track the show when we're sharing posts between us. And, uh, this Chrome plugin, he like vibe-coded it and he sends it over and I unpack it to install it. And I'm like, why are there like node modules here? Like, uh, like that's usually for like Node.js JavaScript on the backend. And he's just like, what are you talking about? And I was like, you don't know that you're using Node.js?

• 45:29Jordi Hays?

  It's a good extension, sir.

• 45:31John Coogan?

  Because I think it was just so.

• 45:32Jordi Hays?

  I trust Claude, I trust Claude to make the right decision.

• 45:35John Coogan?

  I don't even specify what programming language it uses, which is like pretty sick. It's actually extremely bullish for Claude and Claude code. It's really good. Anyway, the part of the code red, of course, is, uh, that, uh, OpenAI's Sora app has fallen out of the top 20 most downloaded apps in the United States on both the App Store and Google Play. And so, uh, things are, things are falling. I actually opened up Sora today. I looked at it and there was some cool stuff happening. This is a little bit of a hot take, like it was not, it, there was still a lot of slop, which I would define as like the, uh, you know, it's a POV video of a bus driver with a bunch of cats on the bus.

• 46:17John Coogan?

  And it's like cute and funny or like, you know, it's a chipmunk water skiing, like that type of stuff.

• 46:22Jordi Hays?

  Is that why you were late for the gym today?

• 46:23John Coogan?

  No. But I, I was sneaking a peek at Sora while I was driving. If I was like, if I die and crash because I'm looking at slop, this would be extremely depressing. But.

• 46:35Jordi Hays?

  At a stop sign?

• 46:36John Coogan?

  Yeah, I stopped. But, uh, the, there, there was, there was one cool, uh, one, which was like more like pixel art, actually. And it was interesting because you remember the OpenAI Super Bowl ad? Like, if you, if you prompt Sora to make that type of content, it actually is really cool and you can remix it in a very interesting way. And so, uh, like Sam had taken, somebody else had done like a bunch of geometric shapes pulsing to like electronic music. And then Sam was able to take it and say, make it orchestral music and make them pastel colors. And he was able to like remix off of that. And that felt like, okay, maybe we're getting into Suno territory. Very odd that Suno and Sora are so close in names. I don't know

• 47:21John Coogan?

  how that happened. Maybe they should team up or something.

• 47:23Jordi Hays?

  Wouldn't be the first time OpenAI has, uh, named something.

• 47:27John Coogan?

  Well, who, who, oh, yeah.

• 47:28Jordi Hays?

  Directionally similar. Yeah.

• 47:29John Coogan?

  I know. I don't know. Uh, but, uh, I don't know. I, I, I was, I was, I was seeing like, I, I don't think it's fully over, you know? I, I think it's like, it's in a, uh, it might be in just a trough of disillusionment. You don't know. This could be, this could be

• 47:44Jordi Hays?

  The trough is in, in a trough.

• 47:46John Coogan?

  The trough is in the trough. It's entirely possible. But clearly, uh, the vibes are rough and people are, uh, taking shots. Terminally online engineer says, just put the ads in the chat, little bro, in the chatbot. Um, because Sam Altman says OpenAI is making a very aggressive infrastructure bet with new partnerships.

• 48:06Jordi Hays?

  Okay, but to, to be fair, this clip was from, uh,

• 48:10John Coogan?

  Long time ago.

• 48:11Jordi Hays?

  An interview that was like at least a couple of months ago.

• 48:12John Coogan?

  Yes, yes, yes. And also, uh, you can do both. What is interesting is that, uh, it's, it's maybe

• 48:19Jordi Hays?

  And it sounds like they're delaying, they're delaying ads.

• 48:21John Coogan?

  Ads, which is, which feels odd because, uh, I personally was, I'm, I'm maybe the only person that's really excited about ads in ChatGPT. Um, I think it's a good thing for the business. I think it makes a ton of sense. And, um, and I was excited to see where that rolls out. I hope that they don't delay it. I think that that's where they should be running. But, um, if that, if they really are losing ground to, to Google and Gemini's, and like the Gemini app so quickly, I'm shocked because it feels like the Gemini three news, like the launch went well. People were excited about the model. The model card looked good. The benchmarks looked good. But you still have to be pretty tuned in to understand the nuances of the model one way or another. Like, it's just not.

• 49:02John Coogan?

  Like the big model smell and the vibes like your average AI user doesn't care if the model responds with it's not just this, it's that like most people clearly that's why it wound up getting RL'd into the model. Most people are like, wow, contrastive parallelism. This is epic. I love it. Thank you. Like this is really-

• 49:25Jordi Hays?

  Like great contrastive parallelism.

• 49:27John Coogan?

  Antithetical parallelism. Like I've never, this is like a big, big, big phrase, big word. Like this is amazing. And so I'm shocked that there would be such a, I'm not, I'm not shocked by like a vibe shift in, on X and in Teapot with regard to how people have been skeptical of the OpenAI financing. And so they've been looking for a, a crack to show. And Gemini coming out and, and leapfrogging a little bit, even if it's just on some obscure benchmark that the end user might not even care about. I was really interested in, I understand that like X would jump on that narrative, but I'm surprised to see if it's

• 50:11John Coogan?

  true, this idea that like there's actually some sort of consumer shift. And I mean, it seems like with the red alert comments, like maybe, maybe it is, maybe it is-

• 50:21Jordi Hays?

  Do you think they have to explain the funding gap at this point? Or can we all just agree that maybe, maybe everyone got a little too excited?

• 50:31John Coogan?

  Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I, I feel like everyone's sort of repriced everything already with the Oracle round tripping and just this idea that, you know, some of the equity investments, like they are circular, but it's basically just like a discount on their purchases. And, you know, these things probably aren't as binding as, as we think. And so I feel like the, the OpenAI is going to blow up the economy narrative. I feel like that was really oversold and is, is much, it, it, it should be fading in my opinion, but I don't know. Buco Capital bloke has been digging into the funding hole.

• 51:13Jordi Hays?

  Apparently ChatGPT is also down right now. I just tested it. It's not down for me, but the chat says it's down. And X is saying it's down.

• 51:23John Coogan?

  Oh, really? Oh, wow. Time to Baja blast those servers back online, brother. It's time to rock. We need a pump up speech that doesn't include any negative phrases that can be taken out of context. We need, we need to be Baja blasting. We have to Baja blast. We have to Baja blast our way to the top of the App Store. Sora team, I need you to Baja.

• 51:48Jordi Hays?

  Bill, it's time to.

• 51:50John Coogan?

  It's time to Baja blast to the top of the App Store. You have to Baja blast at the top of the App Store. You have to. And we're gonna have to Baja blast some, some funding into this company. Because apparently there's a $270 billion funding hole here. This is from a podcast between Ranjan, who writes at Reed Margins and Alex Kantrowitz at Big Technology. They did a podcast together. And here's the quote from Buco Capital bloke says, squaring the total, it leaves OpenAI in a $270 billion. It's $207 billion funding hole. The math doesn't work. Maybe OpenAI should release to the world. Here's how the math can work because I haven't seen anyone state how this can actually work.

• 52:35John Coogan?

  And so even if you get there, OpenAI does fall $207 billion short of the money. It needs to continue funding its commitments, right? So it has in 2030, OpenAI free cash flow will be about 287 billion. That's like insane. That's if, if this is, I, this feels like silly to me because if you, if you're in a situation where you have $287 billion free cash flow, like you can't raise more debt on that. Like I, I, I feel like math tends to work out when you go from a nonprofit to a $300 billion cash flow a year in 10 years. Like it's just, everything just forms in front of you.

• 53:18John Coogan?

  Like the, you're like, yes, you are building the bridge as you're driving, but like that tends to happen when you're on that much of a tear. The bigger question is like, can they actually free cash flow at $287 billion in 2030?

• 53:31Jordi Hays?

  So Amazon's free cash flow for 2024 was 38 billion.

• 53:39Jordi Hays?

  And let's see what Google's.

• 53:41John Coogan?

  Yeah, this is like a.

• 53:42Jordi Hays?

  Seventy-two. So saying that that they're gonna do three times more.

• 53:49John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 53:50Jordi Hays?

  Than Google and Amazon.

• 53:52John Coogan?

  So this is the HSBC report is modeling three hundred and eighty-six billion in annual enterprise AI revenue by twenty thirty. Enterprise AI revenue. Huh. That's, these are just huge numbers. It's, it's almost not worth analyzing. Um, I, I, I still think the biggest, the, the biggest thing is just, uh, understanding how, how significant, how tied up are these, uh, are these contracts. Well, um, let me tell you about Fall, the generative media platform for developers. Develop and fine tune models with serverless GPUs and on-demand clusters. So, um, what else is going on?

• 54:30John Coogan?

  We should read through, uh, Ben Thompson's latest piece because he's provided a lot more context on Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI with a post called Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI.

• 54:41Jordi Hays?

  What'd you look at that?

• 54:42John Coogan?

  And we, we, we thank Ben Thompson for, uh, always having an even keel. Uh, highly recommend subscribing to Stratechery. Uh, it's a fantastic publication if you're not subscribed already. Um, and, uh, and he's a former guest of the show. Uh, so let's read through this, his latest, uh, Monday, uh, piece. He says, a common explanation as to why Star Wars was such a hit and continues to resonate nearly half a century on from its release with everyone except Jordi Hays, who hasn't seen it, because he hasn't seen any movies.

• 55:12Jordi Hays?

  I've seen Star Wars, John.

• 55:13John Coogan?

  How many Star Wars's have you seen?

• 55:15Jordi Hays?

  I have to have seen all of them, except some of the more, there's been some recent.

• 55:20John Coogan?

  All of them, except some of them.

• 55:21Jordi Hays?

  Well, no, the, the, the more, the more recent ones are the, like, it hasn't, there've been like a new Star Wars in the last.

• 55:26John Coogan?

  How many, how many Star Wars are there, Jordi?

• 55:27Jordi Hays?

  There's, there was, is there six?

• 55:30John Coogan?

  Six? There's six Star Wars's? That's how many movies they've ate?

• 55:34Jordi Hays?

  Six, like, real Star Wars.

• 55:36John Coogan?

  There's six. There's six.

• 55:39Jordi Hays?

  I'm gonna, I'm gonna, hasn't there been like, like some like?

• 55:41John Coogan?

  Everyone calls it the septology. Yeah, there's, there's six.

• 55:46Jordi Hays?

  Wait, uh, aren't, there are six.

• 55:48John Coogan?

  There's nine. There's three trilogies. There's the, there's the original trilogy, the prequel trilogy, and then the sequel trilogy, and then there's also two spinoffs.

• 55:56Jordi Hays?

  Okay, so I didn't watch, I didn't watch any of like the, the, the like new ones.

• 56:00John Coogan?

  But, but you watched the prequel trilogy.

• 56:02Jordi Hays?

  Rise of Skywalker. George, you're talking about George Lucas directed. Yeah.

• 56:05John Coogan?

  Okay, okay. So, so, so he's a Lucas head.

• 56:08Jordi Hays?

  I'm a, yeah, exactly.

• 56:09John Coogan?

  Okay, so you've seen A New Hope, you've seen Empire Strikes Back.

• 56:12Jordi Hays?

  Real Star Wars.

• 56:13John Coogan?

  You've seen Return of the Jedi, and then you've seen Phantom Menace, and Revenge of the Sith, and Return of the something. I can't actually, I actually don't know that much of Star Wars. But, anyway, you should know enough to follow along with this analogy from Ben Thompson. He says, "You have Luke, bored on Tatooine, called to adventure by a mysterious message borne by R2-D2, that he initially refuses, refusing, refusal of the call." This is the classic, uh, this is the classic, um, hero's journey. So he refuses the call. A mentor in Obi-Wan Kenobi leads him to the threshold of leaving Tatooine and faces tests while finding new enemies and allies.

• 56:54John Coogan?

  He enters the cave, the Death Star, escapes after the ordeal of Obi-Wan's death. Spoiler alert, Ben, what are you doing, brother? What if somebody hasn't seen it and they don't know that Obi-Wan dies? It's crazy.

• 57:06Jordi Hays?

  Oh.

• 57:08John Coogan?

  And carries the battle station plans to the rebels while preparing for the road back to the Death Star. He trusts the Force in his final test and, uh, and returns transformed. And when you zoom out to the original trilogy, it's simply an expanded version of this, of the story. This time, however, the ordeal, uh, is in the entire second movie, The Empire Strikes Back. The heroes of the AI story over the last three years have been two companies, OpenAI and Nvidia. The first startup is called, uh, the first is a startup called, with the release of ChatGPT, to be the next great consumer tech company. The other was best known as a gaming chip company, characterized by boom and bust cycles, driven by their visionary and endlessly optimistic founder,

• 57:52John Coogan?

  transformed into the most essential infrastructure provider for the AI revolution. Over the last few weeks, however, both have entered the cave. They're in the cave. The, the cave of disillusionment. And are facing their greatest ordeal. The Google empire is very much striking back. And I believe, uh, didn't Angenei, uh, over at A16Z, uh, coin that, like, the Empire Strikes Back?

• 58:17Speaker 02

  Formerly A16Z, went independent.

• 58:20John Coogan?

  Oh, he's independent?

• 58:21Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 58:21John Coogan?

  Oh, I had no idea.

• 58:23Speaker 02

  So is this what, um, Sam meant when he tweeted the picture of the Death Star? I feel like we never really figured out what he meant by that. That was before GPT-5, I think.

• 58:31John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 58:32Speaker 02

  I think he wanted the 2025 vague post of the year.

• 58:36John Coogan?

  No, no.

• 58:37Speaker 02

  It's so vague that even after the release, he still doesn't know what it means.

• 58:39John Coogan?

  No, no, no, I, I, I, I think this is it. I think this is it. It's, it's Google's the empire and, and he's launching the thing that will take us to Google directly.

• 58:45Speaker 02

  It still doesn't make sense at the time because, um, like, OpenAI was like clearly in the lead of the models. Like 2.5, I think, I think 2.5 was the best Gemini.

• 58:54John Coogan?

  Not on cash flow, you know, who has more soldiers, who has more researchers, who has more TPUs, right? Like, it, it, they, they, you know, it, it'd be fair to characterize, um, it'd be fair to characterize Google as the empire the whole time.

• 59:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I guess the founding of OpenAI, then, uh, Google was definitely the Death Star.

• 59:14John Coogan?

  Interesting.

• 59:15Speaker 02

  Isn't that their kind of

• 59:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 59:17Speaker 02

  origin story of OpenAI?

• 59:20John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, it was. They were worried about that. Um, anyway, I enjoy the, uh, Star Wars based analogies. Almost as much as I enjoy numeralhq.com. Compliance, handled. Numeral worries about sales tax and VAT compliance, so you can focus on growth. So Google strikes back. The first Google blow was Gemini 3, which scored better than OpenAI's state-of-the-art model on a host of benchmarks, even if actual real-world usage was a bit more uneven. Gemini 3's biggest advantage is its sheer size and the vast amount of compute that went into creating it. This is notable because OpenAI has had difficulty creating the next generation of models beyond the GPT-4 level of size and complexity.

• 1:00:02John Coogan?

  What has carried the company is a genuine breakthrough in reasoning that produces better results in many cases, but at the cost of time and money. Time and money.

• 1:00:12Jordi Hays?

  Save both.

• 1:00:13John Coogan?

  Dot com ad right in the middle of this commentary article. I love it. Gemini three's success seemed like good news for Nvidia, who I listed, Ben listed as a winner from the release. Quote, this is maybe the most interesting one. Nvidia, who reports earnings later today is one is on one hand, a loser because the best model in the world was not trained on their chips proving once and for all that it is possible to be competitive without paying Nvidia's premiums. On the other hand, there are two reasons for Nvidia's optimism. The first is that everyone needs to respond to Gemini and they need to respond now, not at some future date when their chips are good enough.

• 1:00:49Jordi Hays?

  Did you know that Sundar was apparent, like people were claiming that he had used the phrase code red back in 2022 at the chat GPT launch when Bard was popping?

• 1:01:01John Coogan?

  Yes, yes, yes.

• 1:01:01Jordi Hays?

  And so.

• 1:01:02John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:01:03Jordi Hays?

  I, I, I, I, I'm remembering that now, but I missed it. Sundar came out and said he didn't use that exact term, but there, there was a reporting that he did.

• 1:01:15John Coogan?

  And I heard a rumor that he also said that he wanted to Baja blast Sam Altman.

• 1:01:23Jordi Hays?

  Out of the app store.

• 1:01:24John Coogan?

  Out of San Francisco, out of the atmosphere with a Death Star laser. Yeah, no, it is crazy.

• 1:01:30Jordi Hays?

  I want to, I want to try to find more historical examples.

• 1:01:33John Coogan?

  Of Baja blasting, folks. We got a Baja blast. You got a Baja blast sometimes. So Google started its work on TPUs a decade ago. Everyone else is better off sticking with Nvidia, at least if they want to catch up. Secondly, and relatedly Gemini reaffirms that the most important factor in catching up or moving ahead is more compute. This analysis, however, missed one important point. What if Google sold its TPUs as an alternative to Nvidia? We're going to talk to Take Him, author of the Nvidia Way about that.

• 1:02:06Jordi Hays?

  He's going to tell all.

• 1:02:07John Coogan?

  He's going to tell all. He's breaking his silence. So that's exactly what the search giant is doing. First with a deal with Anthropic, then a rumored deal with Meta, and third with a second wave of NeoClouds, many of which started as crypto miners and are leveraging their access to power to move into AI. So a lot of those NeoClouds, they they found a bunch of power and they don't really have the right chips yet, or maybe they're upgrading their chips. They might be in a new cycle. And so TPU could be at the top of the menu for them. Suddenly, it is Nvidia that is in the crosshairs with fresh questions about their long-term growth, particularly at their sky-high margins. If there were, in fact, a legitimate competitor to their chips, this does, needless to say, raise the pressure on OpenAI's next

• 1:02:49John Coogan?

  pre-training run on Nvidia's Blackwell chips. The base model still matters, and OpenAI needs a better one. And Nvidia needs evidence that it can be created on their chips. What is interesting to consider is which company is more at risk from Google and why. On one hand, Nvidia is making tons of money, and if Blackwell is good, Vera Rubin promises to be even better. Moreover, while Meta might be a natural Google partner, the other hyperscalers are not. They're not going to be selling, you know, is we're going to have the CEO of Amazon Web Services, Matt Garman, on the show in just 30 minutes.

• 1:03:25Jordi Hays?

  And AWS announced a new chip.

• 1:03:26John Coogan?

  And I don't think AWS is going to be buying TPU anytime soon, but we will be asking him that question exactly. And I want to get to the bottom of it. So OpenAI, meanwhile, is losing more money than ever and is spread thinner than ever, even as the startup agrees to buy ever more compute with revenue that doesn't exist yet.

• 1:03:45Jordi Hays?

  Not mincing words.

• 1:03:47John Coogan?

  And yet, despite all that, and while still being quite bullish on Nvidia, I still like OpenAI chances more.

• 1:03:54Jordi Hays?

  Whoa.

• 1:03:55John Coogan?

  Oh, Ben Thompson likes, likes OpenAI's chances. Indeed, if anything, my biggest concern is that I seem to like OpenAI's chances better than OpenAI itself. Nvidia's moats. Wait, he wrote this before? He wrote this before the red alert? No. Interesting. He's really got a crystal ball over there. So Nvidia's moats, if you go back a year or two, you might make the case that Nvidia had three moats relative to TPUs, senior superior performance, significant more flexibility due to GPUs being more general purpose than TPUs and CUDA and the associated developer ecosystem surrounding it. OpenAI meanwhile, had the best model, extensive usage of their API and the massive number of consumers using ChatGPT. The questions then is what happens

• 1:04:40John Coogan?

  if the first differentiator for each company goes away? That in a nutshell is the question that's been raised over the last two weeks. Does Nvidia preserve its advantages if TPUs are as good as GPUs and is OpenAI viable in the long run if they don't have the unquestioned best model? So Nvidia's flexibility advantage is a real thing. It's not an accident that the fungibility of GPUs across workloads was focused on as a justification for increased capital expenditures by both Microsoft and Meta. TPUs are more specialized at the hardware level and more difficult to program for at the software level. To that end, to the extent that customers care about flexibility, then Nvidia remains an obvious choice. The interesting

• 1:05:22John Coogan?

  thing about the flexibility is that isn't SSI a big TPU buyer? I feel like they, I feel like SSI was maybe going big on TPU and I think of SSI as very much like, we're going to experiment, we need maximum flexibility. By default, I would assume that they're a heavy consumer of GPU because they want as much flexibility as possible. But maybe the nature of Ilya's research is flexibility within, that is still afforded within the TPU ecosystem.

• 1:05:52Jordi Hays?

  They're using TPUs through Google Cloud.

• 1:05:55John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:05:56Jordi Hays?

  But there's been no.

• 1:05:57John Coogan?

  Oh yeah, they're not buying them. But still, it just means.

• 1:06:00Jordi Hays?

  That implies more flexibility because you can just turn it on or off.

• 1:06:03John Coogan?

  Yeah, I'm talking about the actual like, like the TPUs is an ASIC, it has, it is like literally like less features than the GPU, like a gaming GPU and like the TPU doesn't, I think it doesn't support like FP4, right? Or something like that. There's some, there's some type of math that is harder to do on a TPU because it's making trade offs, right? And, and so even though I don't understand it fully, I understand that, that, you know, TPUs are more specialized at the hardware level. And so if you were to be in like the era, the era of research, maybe you would want something that's less specialized because you'd be like, I'm going back to. Exploring all sorts of different types of math that aren't necessarily optimal.

• 1:06:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but again, if you're if you're buying TPUs through the cloud, you're effectively just buying cloud services.

• 1:06:49John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:06:49Jordi Hays?

  You do have more flexibility because you can say, hey, we're we want to use more of this, or we want to use less. You're not like buying a bunch of servers and.

• 1:06:56John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:06:57Jordi Hays?

  And.

• 1:06:57John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:06:58Jordi Hays?

  Chips that.

• 1:06:58John Coogan?

  On the scale, on the scale thing, that makes perfect sense.

• 1:07:00Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think also, like, historically, TPUs have definitely been more restrictive just because of, like, the software was just not as good.

• 1:07:06John Coogan?

  Hmm.

• 1:07:07Speaker 02

  Or it was closed source or whatever. And then, you know, yesterday, Dylan Patel was talking about how Google is slowly trying to open source more and more stuff for the TPU.

• 1:07:14John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:07:14Speaker 02

  So you would imagine that in the future, it should be, you know, much easier to use TPUs generally.

• 1:07:19John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:07:20Jordi Hays?

  Sean in the chat says, flexibility in terms of, hey, I have this new architecture. Do I need to write kernel code from scratch, or is there a nice CUDA module I can use just time, right? Flexibility is engineering work from Nvidia.

• 1:07:30John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, no, that's a really good point. So CUDA, meanwhile, has been a critical source of Nvidia lock-in, both because of the low-level access it gives developers, but also because there is a developer network effect. Dylan Patel was talking about this. You're just more likely to be able to hire low-level engineers if your stack is on Nvidia. The challenge for Nvidia, however, is the big is that the big company effect could play out with CUDA in the opposite way to the flexibility argument. While big companies like the hyperscalers have the diversity of workloads to benefit from the flexibility of GPUs, they also have the wherewithal to build an alternative software stack. That they did that they did not do so for so for such a long time is a function of it simply not being worth the time and trouble.

• 1:08:14John Coogan?

  When capital expenditure plans reach the hundreds of billions of dollars, however, what is worth the time and trouble changes. A useful analogy here is the rise of AMD in the data center. That rise has not occurred in on-premises installations or the government, which is still dominated by Intel. Rather, large hyperscalers found it worth their time and effort to rewrite extremely low-level software to be truly agnostic between AMD and Intel, allowing the former's lead in performance to win the battle.

• 1:08:45John Coogan?

  And so AMD, better performance, better efficiency per dollar, but didn't have the best software. And now, but now because there's so much on the line, so many, the spending amount is so high, companies will go and work around all the bugs, develop new software that allows them to take advantage of AMD's better performance. In this case, the challenge Nvidia faces is that its market is a relatively small number of highly concentrated customers with the resources, mostly as yet unutilized to break down the CUDA wall as they already did in terms of Intel's differentiation. It's clear that Nvidia has been concerned about this for a long time. This is from Nvidia Waves and Moats, which he written at the absolute top of the Nvidia

• 1:09:29John Coogan?

  hype cycle after the 2024 introduction of Blackwell. This article takes full cir-- this takes this article full circle. This is from the previous Ben Thompson article in Surtakri. It says, "In the before times, i.e. before the release of ChatGPT, Nvidia was building quite the free software mote around its GPUs. The challenge is that it wasn't entirely clear who was going to use all of that software. Today, meanwhile, the use cases for those GPUs is very clear, and those use cases are happening at much higher level, at a much higher level than CUDA frameworks, i.e. on top of models. That, combined with the massive incentives towards finding cheaper alternatives to Nvidia,

• 1:10:10John Coogan?

  means both the pressure to and the possibility of escaping CUDA is higher than it ever has been, even if it is still distant for low-level work, particularly when it comes to training. Nvidia has already started responding. I think that one way to understand DGX Cloud is that is Nvidia's attempt to capture the same market that is still buying Intel server chips in a world where AMD chips are better because they have already standardized on them." NIMs are another attempt to build lock-in. In the meantime, though, it remains noteworthy that Nvidia appears not to be taking as much margin with Blackwell as many have expected. The question as to whether they will have to give back more in future generations will

• 1:10:52John Coogan?

  depend on not just their chip's performance, but also on redigging a software mote increasingly threatened by the very wave that made GTC such a spectacle. So Blackwell margins are doing just fine, I should note, as he's back to the original article, the modern article, as they should in a world where everyone is starved for compute. Indeed, that may make this entire debate somewhat pointless. Implicit in the assumption that GPUs might take share from TBUs might take share from GPUs is that for one to win, the other must lose. The real decision maker may be TSMC, which makes both chips and is positioned to be the real break on the AI bubble. Interesting. So, ChatGPT and mote's resiliency.

• 1:11:37Jordi Hays?

  I can read through this one. ChatGPT in contrast to Nvidia sells into two much larger markets. The first is developers using their API and according to OpenAI. Anyways, this market is much stickier and reticent to change, which makes sense. Developers using a particular model's API are seeking to make a good product. And while everyone talks about the importance of avoiding lock-in, most companies are going to see more gains from building on

• 1:11:59John Coogan?

  Never avoid lock-in.

• 1:12:00Jordi Hays?

  And expanding.

• 1:12:01John Coogan?

  Always lock-in.

• 1:12:01Jordi Hays?

  From what they already, always Baja Blast. And for a lot of companies, that is OpenAI. One, I would caveat here, we were talking to a founder yesterday who, off the show, who was saying he immediately, as soon as Gemini 3 launched, spent like 12 hours, 12 hours, like just moving over to Gemini from OpenAI. So depending on the product, I don't know that API is always going to be super sticky. I say winning business one app by one app by one will be a lot harder for Google than simply making a spreadsheet presentation to the top of a company about upfront costs

• 1:12:44Jordi Hays?

  and total cost of ownership. Still, API costs will matter, and here, Google almost certainly has a structural advantage. The biggest market of all, however, is consumer, Google's bread and butter. What makes Google so dominant in search, impervious to both competition and regulation, is that billions of consumers choose to use Google every day, multiple times a day, in fact. Yes, Google helps this process along with its payments to its friends, but that's downstream from its control of demand, not the driver. What is paradoxical to many about this reality is that the seeming fragility of Google's position, competition really is a click away. It is, in fact, its source of strength. And then there's an excerpt from

• 1:13:19John Coogan?

  We can skip this one and continue at the bottom. The CEO of a hyperscaler can issue a decree to work around CUDA. An app developer can decide that Google's cost structure is worth the pain of changing the model undergirding their app. Changing the habits of 800 million people who use ChatGPT every week, however, is a battle that can only be fought by individual by individual. This is ChatGPT's true difference from Nvidia in their fight against Google.

• 1:13:46Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:13:47John Coogan?

  And so this, I think, is the most important takeaway is just Ben Thompson creates aggregation theory, this idea of like, it's so important to aggregate demand in the modern internet world. It's potentially the only thing you can do. You can't really monopolize supply. It's very hard to monopolize supply, but monopolizing demand is something that happens.

• 1:14:09Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:14:10John Coogan?

  And the strength of habits is significant. Like, we're watching this stuff every single day, so we can take the time to, okay, yeah, we should test out this other You know, model, we should daily drive this app. But for a lot of people, if they've, if they have a map that's installed and they've been using it for a year, they're never changing.

• 1:14:31Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:14:32John Coogan?

  Even if the model is slightly better over there, they're just not even going to hear about it. Cause they're just like, this is the thing that I use to plan my vacations.

• 1:14:38Jordi Hays?

  And the thing, the thing that I've heard come up multiple times is people that when Gemini three launched, they switched to Gemini three on desktop.

• 1:14:45John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:14:45Jordi Hays?

  They stayed using chat GPT on mobile.

• 1:14:47John Coogan?

  Yep. And I mean, to, to be completely transparent, like, like the, uh, the, the Gemini mobile app has, is really, really struggling to stay connected. There's something in the, when you fire off a prompt, it doesn't like save it locally and then cash that and then send it off, inference it and then come back. It like, unless you keep the app open, like it will, uh, it, it, it will just give you like a server disconnected error. Like I've gotten like dozens of these. And, and that's going to be a real, like, I, I think it should be something that should be, they should be able to fix in like a weekend. But you know, hopefully it's soon. But for a lot of people.

• 1:15:24Jordi Hays?

  Logan.

• 1:15:25John Coogan?

  Yeah. Well, they'll, they'll get it.

• 1:15:28Jordi Hays?

  They'll get it.

• 1:15:29John Coogan?

  But, uh, uh, back to the moat and the map, uh, the moat map and advertising. I, uh, this is, I think, a broader point. The na, the naive approach to moats focuses on the cost of switching. In fact, however, the more important correlation to the strength of a moat is the number of unique purchasers to users. The strength of the moat is increased by the number of buyers. Okay. So that you can see where this is going with like Nvidia has five buyers.

• 1:16:00Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:16:00John Coogan?

  And chat GPT has a billion buyers.

• 1:16:03Jordi Hays?

  And once it has advertised.

• 1:16:04John Coogan?

  Twenty million. Yeah. Advertisers might be even more.

• 1:16:07Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:16:08John Coogan?

  So this is certainly one of the simpler charts I've ever made because it's literally just one line. But it's not the first in the moat genre. So he talks about the moat, uh, moat map. I argued that you could map large tech companies across two spectrums. The degree of supplier differentiation from Facebook where the suppliers completely commoditized, just your friend on Facebook. To, uh, to Microsoft and Apple where the suppliers are somewhat more controlled. Um, yeah, there's the.

• 1:16:35Jordi Hays?

  What a chart.

• 1:16:35John Coogan?

  The, the more, the more unique buyers of the product you have, the, the, the stronger your moat. Cause it's hard to, cause you have to convince each one of them. And then second, the extent to which a company's network effects were externalized, internalized network effects are Facebook again, and then externalized is Microsoft. And so putting this together gave the moat map. So who has the the network effect versus the supplier's map? If we scroll down there, you can see them. What you see in the upper right are platforms, the lower left are aggregators. Platforms like the App Store enable differentiated suppliers, which allows them to profitably take a cut of purchases driven by those differentiated suppliers. Aggregators, meanwhile, have totally commoditized

• 1:17:18John Coogan?

  their suppliers, but have done so in the service of maximizing attention, which they can monetize through advertising. It's the bottom left that I'm describing with the simplistic graph above. The way to commoditize suppliers and internalize network effects is by having a huge number of unique users and by extension, the best way to monetize that user base and to achieve a massive user base in the first place is through advertising. It's so obvious the bottom left is where ChatGPT sits.

• 1:17:43Jordi Hays?

  I wonder, I wonder what he thinks then about about them potentially kind of

• 1:17:48John Coogan?

  delaying ads?

• 1:17:48Jordi Hays?

  In delaying ads.

• 1:17:50John Coogan?

  Punch in the air. Him and Eric Sufer, but probably, no, no. And I'm, I'm right there with them. I completely agree. Boo. Launch the ads product. Launch the ads product. Get it out. Come on. Don't delay that. That's the most important thing. So at one point, it didn't seem possible to commoditize content more than Google or Facebook did, but that's exactly what LLMs do. The answers are a statistical synthesis of all the knowledge the model makers can get their hands on and are completely unique to every individual. At the same time, every individual's user usage should, at least in theory, make the model better over

• 1:18:32John Coogan?

  time. It follows then that ChatGPT should obviously have an advertising model. This isn't just a function of needing to make money. Advertising would make ChatGPT a better product. It would have more users using it more, providing more feedback, capturing purchase signals, not from affiliate links, but from personalized ads, would create a would create a richer understanding of individual users, enabling better responses. And as an added bonus, and one that is very pertinent to this article, it would dramatically deepen OpenAI's moat.

• 1:19:00John Coogan?

  Yeah, I keep going back to this idea that OpenAI needs personalized ads like Instagram. Like, that's what Sam said when he was interviewed multiple times on his ad strategy. He was like, you know, like, ads can be bad, but these Instagram ads are pretty good, you know? And people are always like, he's backtracking. It's like, no, that's fine. Get, like, do the proper business model. Like, please, implement the correct business model. I'm happy about that. But the interesting thing is that Instagram does not surface ads when you necessarily, when you search for something.

• 1:19:36John Coogan?

  Like, if you're on a video for, like, a Ferrari, like, you don't just immediately get an ad as your next thing for, like, Ferrari of Hollywood. Like, or Ferrari of Beverly Hills. Like, no, you get an ad for the toaster that you were about to check out on.

• 1:19:52Jordi Hays?

  I actually do. Like, half, half, half the ads I get on Meta are local dealerships in LA.

• 1:20:00John Coogan?

  Yes, but importantly, not when you're like searching. It's not tied to search. And so, ChatGPT can do the same thing, where they can clearly show you, where they can clearly show you something that you are about to check out. You're shopping for Christmas for this thing. You're searching for the Roman Empire. Let's show you the ad for the thing that you're shopping, that you're shopping for, like, right next to it. It's fine. And so, I think that can work very well. Anyway, let's go to Google's advantages. It's not a question that Google can win the fight for consumer attention. The company has a clear lead in image and video generation, which is one of the, one of the reasons why I wrote about the YouTube tip of the Google spear. I mean, Google's advantage in data is insane. Like, YouTube, so massive.

• 1:20:43John Coogan?

  And that's gotta be just like compound and, I mean, we're uploading another three hours of video to YouTube today. You're welcome.

• 1:20:50Jordi Hays?

  This one's for you, Son.

• 1:20:51John Coogan?

  This one's for you, Demis. But the flip side is like, they also see the entire internet because of the way the Google bots scrapes. Like, the Google searching in Gemini is such a killer feature. Like, it's such a, it's such a killer feature if they can keep that on and they can actually surface that. Like, and the AI search results are obviously gonna get good. They're gonna figure out how to surface it, I think. I'm still pretty optimistic. But let's see what Ben Thompson has to say. And let's also tell you about Adio, the AI native CRM. Adio builds, scales, and grows your company to the next level. So, Google is obviously capable of monetizing users, even if they hadn't turned on ads in Gemini yet. It's also pointing out, as Eric Sufer did in a recent Strategery interview,

• 1:21:33John Coogan?

  two of the best collabing, we love to see it, that Google started monetizing search less than two years after its public launch. It is search revenue, far more than venture capital money, that has undergirded all of Google's innovation over the years. And it is what makes them such a behemoth today. In that light, OpenAI's refusal to launch and iterate on an ads product for ChatGPT now three years old is a dereliction of business duty. He's calling him out.

• 1:21:57Jordi Hays?

  Whoa.

• 1:21:58John Coogan?

  Particularly as the company signs deals for over a trillion dollars of compute. What are you doing? Sam, get the ads out. Put the ads in the chatbot. We love it.

• 1:22:05Jordi Hays?

  Just put the ads in the chat.

• 1:22:07John Coogan?

  And go, you gotta Baja blast some ads into that app. You got to. I want ads in ChatGPT, please. On the flip side, it means Google has the resources to take on ChatGPT as consumer lead with a World War One style war of attrition. Ryan Matal callback. OpenAI's lead should be unassailable, but the company's insistence on monetizing solely via subscriptions with a downgraded degraded user experience for most users and price elasticity challenges in terms of revenue maximization is very much opening the door to a company that actually cares about making money. To put it another way, the long-term threat to Nvidia from TPUs margin, from TPUs is margin dilution.

• 1:22:49John Coogan?

  The challenge of physical products is that you do actually have to charge people who buy them, which invites potentially unfavorable.

• 1:22:55Jordi Hays?

  I always, so, so, yeah, who, who, both Gemini and ChatGPT will have ads eventually.

• 1:23:02John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:23:02Jordi Hays?

  Right?

• 1:23:03John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:23:03Jordi Hays?

  You can bet on that. Who will ramp ad revenue faster? It's hard not to bet on Gemini, even with a smaller user base, because they have the ad network. They have all the, they have all the customer relationships already. You can, they can just say like, hey, here's a pop-up. Do you want it? Here's, here's $10,000 of free ad credits. Try it out, right? It's like native, it will already be in AdWords. The example that I use is like how, you know, Zuck was able to take Instagram, which had a lot of users, plug it into the Meta Ads platform and just scale revenue like crazy and then do it again with, with Reels. And so, yeah, very, very clear that they both will have ads. And, and again, if Gemini can really ramp that quickly, they could.

• 1:23:51Jordi Hays?

  Again, like I do feel like we're moving towards a world where you like every consumer will be able to get the best LLM for free.

• 1:24:00John Coogan?

  Hmm.

• 1:24:00Jordi Hays?

  Right? I don't, I don't, I don't necessarily believe that every American will be paying for an LLM in five years.

• 1:24:07John Coogan?

  Hmm.

• 1:24:08Jordi Hays?

  And so if Google can get there first and then keep Gemini on the frontier and deliver the best, free, fastest text and image model, that's going to be very, very difficult to compete with. And so again, like getting, getting to ads faster, it feels like it makes more sense.

• 1:24:30John Coogan?

  I like that point. I have a rebuttal. First, I'm going to tell you about Figma. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. So getting to ads first is an advantage. That's your take. I like it, but there is a little bit of a risk with launching ads first because you could forever be branded with you're the ads one. And we saw this when Arvind from Perplexity came on the show and he mentioned this idea of ads in LLM queries and we all agreed on the, on the discussion. We all agreed that ads were going to come to AI tools because that is the way to get the most people using them and make intelligence free. And you

• 1:25:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:14John Coogan?

  got in a, you know, a debate with Mark Cuban over this, for example. And it seemed very logical, but there is these, there is the fact that the first major chat app to put ads in their app is going to be a massive news cycle. It's just going to be like national news.

• 1:25:35Jordi Hays?

  Sam Adman.

• 1:25:36John Coogan?

  Exactly. It'll be OpenAI has ads now, or it'll be Gemini has ads now. And so you don't necessar, if you like, it's much easier to be the second mover there because it's going to be less of a news cycle. And so you kind of do want to, there is, there is a little bit of advantage to being the second mover there. Right? Because you're, you're, you're going to get sort of branded as like, oh, that's the ad supported one. And the other one can add ads and people will be like, oh yeah, like I guess, but that's like standard, yeah. There's gonna be like a backlash and people will be like, oh no, I don't like this company, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Like.

• 1:26:08Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I mean, the harder, the harder thing is just how do you do it, right? Certainly, I do feel like it's different. You're going to an LLM. People are going to an LLM for advice and recommendations. That's different than going to Google and searching and seeing ads at the top.

• 1:26:23John Coogan?

  I mean, there's plenty of surface area.

• 1:26:25Jordi Hays?

  No, no, I'm not, I'm not saying there's no surface area, but I'm just saying like the right way to do ads in LLM is not clear yet.

• 1:26:33John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, I mean, they will need to do some experimentation, but I mean, just starting with, um, you know, like, Google already has retargeting information. I actually went to Gemini with a question and it clearly knew everything about me. And it said, you're the host of TVPN and you've started, you founded these companies and it had, it already knew that, probably just because I authenticated with something else. I don't know, but it should know, okay, hey, we could retarget you with this. Let's put this in. Um, and, and the same thing with, uh, with OpenAI, like with chat, with chat GPT. There's plenty of spaces where it's like, you're waiting for it to, uh, to give you the answer. Okay. Hey, we're generating you the image. Why don't you show me other images of ads right there?

• 1:27:14John Coogan?

  Uh, there's tons of surface area. I, I agree that there will be a whole bunch of iterations on like what the ideal ad looks like. But yeah, uh, you can clearly get out. So let's go back to Ben Thompson, close this out. Says, the reason to be more optimistic about OpenAI is that an advertising model flips this on its head. Because users don't pay, there's no ceiling on how much you can make from them, which by extension means that the bigger you get, the better your margins have the potential to be, and thus the total size of your investments. Again, however, the problem is that the advertising model doesn't exist yet. So he started this article recounting the hero's journey in part to make the easy leap to the empire strikes back. However, there is a personal angle as well.

• 1:27:56John Coogan?

  The hero of this site has been aggregation theory and the belief that controlling demand trumps everything else. There's, there, Google was my ultimate protagonist. Moreover, I do believe in the innovation and velocity that comes from a founder-led company like Nvidia. And I do still worry about Google's bureaucracy and disruption potential, making the company less nimble and aggressive than OpenAI. More than anything, though, I believe in the market power and defensibility of 800 million users, which is why I think chat GPT still has a meaningful moat. At the same time, I understand why the market is freaking out about Google. Their structural advantage, their structural advantages in everything from monetization

• 1:28:37John Coogan?

  to data to infrastructure to R and D is so substantial that you understand why OpenAI's founding was motivated by the fear of Google winning AI. It's very easy to imagine an outcome where Google's inputs simply matter more than anything else, which is to say, one of my most important theories is being put to the ultimate test, which perhaps is why I'm so frustrated at OpenAI's avoidance of advertising. Google is now my antagonist. Google has already done this once. Search was the ultimate example of a company winning an open market with nothing more than a better product. Aggregators win new markets by being better. The open question now is whether one that has already reached scale can be dethroned

• 1:29:18John Coogan?

  by the overwhelming application of resources, especially when its inherent advantages are diminished by refusing to adopt an aggregator's optimal business model. I'm nervous and excited to see how far aggregation theory really goes. Fascinating.

• 1:29:32Jordi Hays?

  That's his baby.

• 1:29:33John Coogan?

  Yeah, it's a, it is, I agree, it is the correct, it is the correct framing. It'll just be very interesting to see. I really wonder who's gonna, who's gonna take the leap first? Who is going to, who's going to jump and, and put ads in, in, in the, in the app first? It feels like Google should do it. It feels like Google will, will be able to do it.

• 1:29:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, and nobody's gonna be like, oh, what? Google is putting ads in a product?

• 1:30:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:30:02Jordi Hays?

  It won't be that surprising.

• 1:30:05John Coogan?

  So they should probably move faster.

• 1:30:06Jordi Hays?

  We have some breaking news.

• 1:30:07John Coogan?

  What's the breaking news?

• 1:30:08Jordi Hays?

  Jason Fried is joining the show at 2:00 PM.

• 1:30:10John Coogan?

  I can't wait.

• 1:30:10Jordi Hays?

  Surprise guest.

• 1:30:11John Coogan?

  Surprise guest.

• 1:30:11Jordi Hays?

  He's launching Fizzy today.

• 1:30:13John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:30:13Jordi Hays?

  Can ban as it should be, not as it has been. I will wait, we'll wait to talk about this till he joins in an hour and 20 minutes. So little surprise guest appearance from a legend.

• 1:30:27John Coogan?

  Calling out his competitors directly. I love when the founders do that.

• 1:30:31Jordi Hays?

  Founder mode.

• 1:30:32John Coogan?

  Founder mode.

• 1:30:35Jordi Hays?

  Should we talk about John Giandrea leaving the company?

• 1:30:38John Coogan?

  He's out.

• 1:30:39Jordi Hays?

  He's out.

• 1:30:39John Coogan?

  I quit.

• 1:30:40Jordi Hays?

  I quit.

• 1:30:42John Coogan?

  You like that one. I think that's probably been used before. Some headline, but.

• 1:30:47Jordi Hays?

  Amar Subram.

• 1:30:48John Coogan?

  So of course Mark Garman has the scoop, I believe.

• 1:30:53Jordi Hays?

  The Germinator.

• 1:30:53John Coogan?

  Germinator's at it again. He says, Apple AI Chief John Giandrea is leaving the company. Amar Subramanya from Microsoft has joined at Lead AI under Craig Federighi. And so we should dig in a little bit to this history. So Swix has a little bit of a of a deep dive here. He says, Aman brings a wealth of experience to Apple. He's quoting here. Having most recently served as CVP of AI at Microsoft and previously spent 16 years at Google, where he was head of engineering for Google Gemini. Wait, oh, I guess at the end of that because Gemini is not 16 years old. This is bearing the lead. He joined Microsoft AI four

• 1:31:38John Coogan?

  months ago. Wow. What a crazy turn.

• 1:31:40Jordi Hays?

  LinkedIn says six months ago, but but who's who's counting?

• 1:31:44John Coogan?

  That's pretty fast. And so.

• 1:31:45Jordi Hays?

  But this makes this makes sense considering Apple is partnering with Gemini and not a lot of people are going to be in a better position to help integrate that into Siri.

• 1:31:55John Coogan?

  Sure, sure.

• 1:31:56Jordi Hays?

  Than Amar.

• 1:31:57John Coogan?

  Yeah. I mean, I don't know. Maybe there's something to, you know, just having a taste of all the different big tech companies. Oh, yeah, I've been at Microsoft. I know how they work. I've been at Google. I know how that works. I'm ready to ready to rock over here. Garman does need to come on back on ASAP. I agree, Ragav. He was fantastic.

• 1:32:16Jordi Hays?

  We'll get him in person, hopefully before.

• 1:32:18John Coogan?

  So Garman continues. He says, strange hire for a number of reasons, but it's hard to argue that the Apple job is a bad one. Anything is an important improvement at this point. So the bar is as low as it comes, easy to lay up on the resume. So that'll be that'll be fun to see. I'm personally just excited to actually test drive what Gemini, how it works in Siri, how seamless that is, because if it really is just raise, press the button, get Gemini, and it's linked up properly and it doesn't have timeouts and it gets back to you pretty quickly, like, that's going to be a pretty powerful experience. That's that's definitely going to cut down on ChatGPT app usage for iPhone users, I would imagine.

• 1:33:00Jordi Hays?

  Underrated threat.

• 1:33:02John Coogan?

  I would think so. Like, the re like, there are so many moments where.

• 1:33:07Jordi Hays?

  People are counting out Apple.

• 1:33:11John Coogan?

  It's not, yeah, I don't, I don't even know that, I don't even know that Apple will benefit massively from this. It's not like they're gonna sell twice as many iPhones. They're already so big. It's not like they're gonna charge for it.

• 1:33:22Jordi Hays?

  I don't think it's necessarily like especially bullish for Apple. It's, it's an underrated threat for OpenAI.

• 1:33:28John Coogan?

  I would think so.

• 1:33:29Jordi Hays?

  There's a lot of queries that all hit ChatGPT on mobile that are not even like super economic, but it's just a lot of my usage around like, hey, just trying to learn about something or, or research a product, et cetera.

• 1:33:41John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:33:42Jordi Hays?

  And if that's just like, again, one tap and you're in there.

• 1:33:45John Coogan?

  Yeah. I mean, yeah, the, the original promise of Siri was, you know, not just, hey, what's the weather today? But really asking anything and Gemini clearly solves that for 99% of knowledge retrieval queries.

• 1:34:01John Coogan?

  I, I would be, I, I think I'm gonna be using that a lot unless they really botch it. And I don't know how they're gonna botch it, but yeah.

• 1:34:07Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I mean, I, I think the.

• 1:34:09John Coogan?

  But if anything's possible, yeah.

• 1:34:10Jordi Hays?

  Apple's like, hold my beer.

• 1:34:11John Coogan?

  They're gonna be like, every, for privacy reasons, every time you press the button, you have to e-sign. And it's like, why are we doing that? Yeah.

• 1:34:19Jordi Hays?

  Like, uh, the original, like Siri kind of vision was like this very conversational AI, right?

• 1:34:24John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:34:25Jordi Hays?

  But I, I don't think Gemini has a, um, real-time voice model yet. Like, I'm pretty sure OpenAI is the only one that has that.

• 1:34:31John Coogan?

  Really? Huh. I don't think that matters at all.

• 1:34:34Jordi Hays?

  Really?

• 1:34:34John Coogan?

  Uh, yeah, I, I really think that.

• 1:34:36Jordi Hays?

  That, um, form factor feels like that would be the best thing to be on.

• 1:34:39John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:34:40Jordi Hays?

  You press the button on your iPhone and it's just talking.

• 1:34:42John Coogan?

  And then it's just on. Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if they can, if they can, like, get that model, that version of the model out. Because it's really just like distilled a little bit faster. It's not some like uncanny breakthrough that Gemini, that the Gemini team will not, never be able to crack, right? So they just have to build that. But honestly, like, I don't know that that's. Certainly not how I would use it for most things. Most things I would say, okay, like, I have one question, get me an answer within a reasonable amount of time, and maybe read it off to me, or produce like an article that's, you know, a pretty readable article summarizing the answer to my question. And then, yeah, maybe there is like a back

• 1:35:24John Coogan?

  and forth, but I don't know. Oh, you're getting truth zoned in the chat. Gemini does have a real-time voice feature. Gemini Live. Yeah, I think it's on the app.

• 1:35:34Speaker 02

  I'll try that.

• 1:35:35John Coogan?

  Truth zone.

• 1:35:41Jordi Hays?

  Tyler, Anthropic is acquiring Bun. What do you have to say?

• 1:35:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, this is definitely in line with their, like, you know, focus on dev stuff.

• 1:35:51John Coogan?

  Okay. What is Bun?

• 1:35:55Speaker 02

  Bun is a, it's like a, I don't know, it's like a bundler for JavaScript. It's like a very dev.

• 1:36:02John Coogan?

  It has dramatically improved the JavaScript and TypeScript developer experience. They're going to make Claude Code even better. I like that Gabriel from OpenAI here is OMG in the chat, which is like, a pretty crazy thing to say. But I appreciate it. So Claude is one of the world's smartest and most capable AI models for developers. Startups and enterprises, Claude Code represents a new era of agentic coding, fundamentally changing how teams build software. In November, Claude Code achieved a significant milestone, just six months after becoming available to the public. That's crazy. It's only been six months. Wow. It reached a $1 billion revenue run rate. We were always struggling to understand what that meant, right?

• 1:36:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, well, so there are two ways to pay for Claude Code. There's either with your Claude subscription, where you get like Claude Pro or Claude Max, and there's a certain amount of tokens you can use. And then there's also, you can just directly wire up APIs, calls essentially to Claude Code, and then you're being charged like directly based on usage. So that's probably what that revenue is from.

• 1:37:06John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:37:06Speaker 02

  And then, yeah, I also have thought about this thing where like, oh, you can break down the number of tokens from the subscription. So it's like your $20 subscription, three fourths of your tokens are on Claude Code. I mean, three fourths of your $20 is Kansas Claude Code revenue.

• 1:37:19John Coogan?

  Okay. Yeah, yeah.

• 1:37:20Speaker 02

  I'm not sure exactly.

• 1:37:22John Coogan?

  Yeah, I mean, I'm sure that they can, they can account for it. So it was founded by Jared Sumner in 2021. Bun is dramatically faster than leading competition. They say it's a breakthrough JavaScript runtime. Does it compete with V8? I'm very interested in like, it's Node JS, it competes with Node, the thing that Tyler needs to learn.

• 1:37:41Jordi Hays?

  What was that, what was that company that OpenAI acquired earlier this year for like a billion?

• 1:37:46John Coogan?

  I know the one you're talking about. Wasn't that Analytics or something?

• 1:37:49Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but again, I remember at the time people were like, oh, like, OpenAI's competitors are not going to be happy about this acquisition. So that comment from Gabriel.

• 1:38:00John Coogan?

  Well, congratulations to the Bun team. Congratulations to Anthropic and everyone on the Claude Code team. Very excited that you're getting to work together for your massive deal. Speaking of other massive deals.

• 1:38:14Jordi Hays?

  Speaking of size.

• 1:38:15John Coogan?

  Alfred Lin.

• 1:38:16Jordi Hays?

  Hit the, get that gong ready, John.

• 1:38:19John Coogan?

  Alfred, what did he do?

• 1:38:20Jordi Hays?

  Alfred Lin comes in on the board of DoorDash, buys 100 million dollars of DoorDash.

• 1:38:29John Coogan?

  Lin sanity. He's not done stewarding DoorDash. He's, he's continuing to steward the company with a $100 million buy.

• 1:38:39Jordi Hays?

  And of course sends the stock up almost 6% on that.

• 1:38:44John Coogan?

  Pretty, pretty remarkable.

• 1:38:46Jordi Hays?

  Excited about it.

• 1:38:47John Coogan?

  He ripped, he ripped. What is this? Another 4.6 million donated to Shrimp Welfare?

• 1:38:55Speaker 02

  Okay, so they, yeah. Basically, the story is Anthropic, they were doing some like research and about.

• 1:39:06Speaker 02

  Uh, smart contracts. And so they had Claude Code try to figure out like, um, you know, issues in smart contracts. And then I, I'm not sure exactly where the like money came from. Maybe it was for like bounties. Um, but there's some way in which Claude Code basically generated like 4.6 million dollars in like cash from finding these exploits. So then they just.

• 1:39:28John Coogan?

  Did it actually generate real money? Or is this like the, the hypothetical?

• 1:39:32Jordi Hays?

  This is simulated testing.

• 1:39:34John Coogan?

  Okay. Huh.

• 1:39:36Speaker 02

  So yeah, so it probably means that they could have like basically stolen four million dollars from people, but they don't want to do that.

• 1:39:43John Coogan?

  Maybe they should have if they really want to get up the.

• 1:39:46Jordi Hays?

  In other anthropic news, David Sacks says he's still waiting on Dario's support. Uh, after the, uh, New York Times piece was published. Sam Altman, of course, came in and said, David Sacks really understands AI and cares about the US leading in innovation. I'm grateful we have him. Of course, Dario and Sacks not the biggest fans of each other. So I don't expect that one, uh, uh, coming through, uh, anytime soon. Um, while we wait for our first guest, Matt Garman, uh, let's pull up this clip from, uh, Huberman Lab, uh, if we can play this. Uh, Rob Moore is highlighting Dr. Jeffrey tells Huberman that LED lighting

• 1:40:30Jordi Hays?

  in buildings is a public health crisis that could be on par with the use of asbestos. Many building contractors slash designers are coming to him worried they're going to be sued and asking how to start fixing the issue. So, uh, let's pull this up when we have a second.

• 1:40:46Jason Fried?

  For lighting, because I am very concerned about the amount of short wavelength light that people are exposed to nowadays, especially kids.

• 1:40:52Speaker 05

  The group of us that are shuffling around, some of them are saying this is an issue on the same level as asbestos. This is a public health issue and it's big. LEDs came in and people won the Nobel Prize for this, very rightly at the time because they save a lot of energy. The LED has got a big blue spike in it, although we tend not to see that. And that is even true of warm LEDs and there is no red. The light found in LEDs when we use them, certainly we use them on the retina, looking at mice, we can watch the mitochondria gently go downhill. They're far less responsive.

• 1:41:34Speaker 05

  They their membrane potentials are coming down. The mitochondria are not breathing very well. Watch that in real time.

• 1:41:41Jason Fried?

  Under LED lighting.

• 1:41:42Speaker 05

  Under LED lighting at the same energy levels that we would find in a domestic or a commercial environment.

• 1:41:50Jordi Hays?

  This is why I want to rig the studio with incandescent incandescent light.

• 1:41:54John Coogan?

  Incandescent, we're going back to candles.

• 1:41:56Jordi Hays?

  Candle maxing.

• 1:41:57John Coogan?

  Let's do candlelight.

• 1:41:57Jordi Hays?

  How about a hearth?

• 1:41:58John Coogan?

  This is the way.

• 1:41:59Jordi Hays?

  If we put a hearth, so we have lights above our heads, I'm sure, or LEDs, killing us slowly and softly. If we put like somewhat a bonfire right above us.

• 1:42:10John Coogan?

  That'd be the way.

• 1:42:11Jordi Hays?

  And then we just, when when the wood kind of burns out, the show's over. We just go until the.

• 1:42:17John Coogan?

  That would be good. I like that. Let me tell you about TurboPuffer, serverless vector and full tech search, built from first principles in object storage, fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable.

• 1:42:26Jordi Hays?

  And TurboPuffer is at Reinvent.

• 1:42:29John Coogan?

  Amazing.

• 1:42:30Jordi Hays?

  So.

• 1:42:30John Coogan?

  Fantastic. Well, we are joined by the CEO of Amazon Web Services, Matt Garman. Thank you so much for taking the time to come and chat with us. How are you doing?

• 1:42:39Speaker 06

  Hi, thanks guys for having me.

• 1:42:41John Coogan?

  Please take us through some of the high level announcements. Obviously, it's it's Reinvent, very exciting. Congratulations on the progress. Would love to know what's at the top of your mind? What's on the top of your presentations over the over the over the course of the event?

• 1:42:58Speaker 06

  Yeah, we had a couple of really exciting announcements today. A couple I'd highlight. First, we introduced these idea of frontier agents.

• 1:43:05John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:43:06Speaker 06

  These are agents both in Kiro for software development as well as in operations and security. And these frontier agents are meant to accomplish much, much more than customers were able ever able to do in the past, where we have these autonomous agents that can help customers really turbocharge their software environment. So super excited about that. We had some announcements around Nova, which is our frontier AI models that we announced. We announced Nova 2 in our new sets of models. And one of the things I'm in particular really excited about is Nova Forge, which allows customers to actually bring their own data to pre-training checkpoints, mix in their data with Amazon data, finish training the model, and at the end of it, have a custom model that deeply understands their own enterprise data.

• 1:43:50Speaker 06

  And is and is just for them.

• 1:43:52John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:43:53Speaker 06

  So that that's another thing that I'm excited about. And then the third thing is we announced a new chip around trainium three to really turbocharge the next generation of training and inference for our customers. And so quite excited to get that and that went GA today as well.

• 1:44:08John Coogan?

  That's very exciting. I let's go back and start with the first one. Let's talk about coding agents and the your own proprietary models. How are you thinking about positioning those to potential buyers? Are you? Do you like the benchmarks these days? Do you think that we're sort of like post all the benchmarks? Or do you think those are still useful tools for a buyer who's making a decision? Is it about integration? Is it about cost? How are you positioning them?

• 1:44:37Speaker 06

  Yeah. When you think about software development, it's not about pure benchmarks. It's really about what is going to allow you to get the most amount of work done. And when we think about our offering, which is called Kiro.

• 1:44:47John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:44:47Speaker 06

  It's really focused on in a enterprise or SPUR environment where somebody is doing high velocity development. They actually need more structure. People love vibe coding and it's exciting, but you can actually get down a path where you get stuck.

• 1:45:01John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:45:01Speaker 06

  And you'll often find actually that you spend just as much time trying to get back to where you were before.

• 1:45:06John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:45:06Speaker 06

  As if you had just coded it from the beginning. We have this idea of specs that gives you structure to what you're trying to build. And so you can have agents go and start to build around those specs together with you and your team. And it gives you the structure that allows you to go really fast and undo if you need to can make sure that you're hitting your design requirements. And it really allows you and the agents to operate in conjunction with each other and move really, really fast. And we're starting to build these much more capable agents that can go and actually do long running tasks for you on your behalf. But all of it is kind of ties into this structure. And we view that as a way to deliver kind of real development that's going to be meaningful on a large code base with large teams in enterprises where they have existing things,

• 1:45:47Speaker 06

  not just kind of single individual people sitting there kind of doing vibe coding, which, you know, you can do vibe coding on Kiro as well. By the way, we think that that's just not sufficient for what

• 1:45:56John Coogan?

  Sure, sure.

• 1:45:57Speaker 06

  real development is going to need.

• 1:45:58John Coogan?

  Yeah. And talk to me about what it actually looks like to set an agent off and say, hey, I got a task for you. Come back to me in a few days, which it sounds like that's where we're going. We've been tracking the meter benchmark and it seems like we've been seeing doublings there. But again, a lot of those have been the benchmark has been. How long would it take a human to do this task? The actual agent might have done it faster. And so you, it's not necessarily that you're actually letting something cook over the weekend. What's the experience been like? And what have people been reporting about these long running agents?

• 1:46:36Speaker 06

  Yeah, I think the first and actually most important thing is thinking about how you actually kind of have a mind change on how you think about software development. Where you think about not about do this task, get it back, look at it, do this task. But how are you thinking about directing a lot of agents to go out there and do lots of different things? And let those run for long periods of time where they can kind of have amorphous tasks. Like instead of go write me this function, like try to go solve this problem for me. And then I'll come back and, and then you, but you can, but if you send out two or three or 10 or 20 or 50 of those things. Then your job as a software developer and as a product leader is actually much more around coordinating those when they come back. Troubleshooting, make sure that you're directing them, course correcting, et cetera. And so I'm excited about that.

• 1:47:18Speaker 06

  We've already seen these, these processes go off and work for multiple hours at a time. On particularly like really hard, tricky, amorphous tasks. And we think those things are going to continue and be more the norm of how software developer teams change what they accomplish. We think Kiro is going to be the engine that's going to drive a lot of that.

• 1:47:36John Coogan?

  Yeah, yesterday we were talking to Vincent from Prime Intellect. And they do some of this like fine tuning on smaller models. And he has this thesis, I think that you share that a lot of businesses will need to take a pre-train and then, and then bring their own data, fine tune it. Not just because it's important from performance and output, but also from cost. But I'm interested in understanding how you think the market will shape out. Do you see implementation partners and like consulting firms coming in and doing that? I was asking him like, you know, there's a lot of tech startups that are going to be able to do that. They're going to understand I need to build an RL environment around my app.

• 1:48:19John Coogan?

  But for larger legacy companies, they might not understand. So how are they going to wind up using that tool in particular?

• 1:48:26Speaker 06

  I think they will. And I actually just want to. Highlight one piece there where some of what we announced today.

• 1:48:31John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:48:31Speaker 06

  Um, is a little bit different. We announced this idea. It's it's an open training model.

• 1:48:35John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:48:35Speaker 06

  Nova. Um, and so the difference of what you just said is people take a pre-trained model and they'll do RL after the fact and they'll try to do some some fine tuning.

• 1:48:43John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:48:43Speaker 06

  Which is great, but there is actually limits to where that does. In fact, if you do too much post-training, oftentimes those those models will forget what they've done at the beginning. They'll start to lose some of their reasoning and their core intelligence.

• 1:48:53John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:48:54Speaker 06

  I mean, this is a a an unsolved problem. Um, except when you go and insert your data in the pre-training phase. And so what we do with Nova is we expose checkpoints. You can take a sixty points percent trained or an eighty percent trained um, model, pre-trained model.

• 1:49:08John Coogan?

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:49:08Speaker 06

  Insert your data into that pre-training phase, mix it in. We then expose actually Amazon training data to you via an API that you can then mix it together. And so it's like you said, here's my, all my corpus of corporate data. Here's everything that I need to know about my industry. We then mix that in and then finish pre-training the model. So you get a pre-trained model that totally understands your company and your data.

• 1:49:30John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:49:30Speaker 06

  And then you can go do fine tuning. You can go do reinforcement learning gyms. After that, you can shrink them down and distill them. You do all those things, but on a pre-trained model that deeply understands what your company does.

• 1:49:41John Coogan?

  And is that called mid-training now? Is that the right buzzword for that?

• 1:49:44Speaker 06

  It it's not like we're, and mid-training is a different thing.

• 1:49:46John Coogan?

  Different thing, okay.

• 1:49:47Speaker 06

  Time that anyone's ever exposed this idea.

• 1:49:49John Coogan?

  Okay, thank you.

• 1:49:50Speaker 06

  To to deliver pre-training checkpoints where we can mix in your data. No one's ever done this before today.

• 1:49:54John Coogan?

  Very cool. Okay. Uh, great. Yeah, well, then, yeah, on on market structure, uh, do you think it's self-serve enough that, you know, large corporations will do it? Do you need an AI lab? Do you need AI scientists? Do you need someone to, who can, you know, write TensorFlow or PyTorch or something to implement this? Or is it something where, you know, just a normal software engineer at a large company could go and pull this off the shelf and implement it?

• 1:50:20Speaker 06

  Yeah, we'll see. I think we're going to keep working on the tools today. I do think that for some enterprises, they'll want to have some consulting folks that help them with this. I think we'll have some people, we have some experts that should come and teach how to do this. And I think we'll quickly get the tools to a point where, you know, it's not somewhere where, you know, a non-technical person is going to go do this for sure. But it may be a software developer that tends to be a little bit more on the AI or ML side that we hope is going to be able to go do this without having to have a whole bunch of expertise about how to go pre-train a frontier model.

• 1:50:52John Coogan?

  Yeah. On the cost side, obviously, you're working, you announced a new chip. I imagine that there's, you know, the emergence of some synergies across the models that you're developing, the software you're deploying, the cloud, and then also the chips. How are you positioning the, like, the Tranium ecosystem? Is this something that you're planning on really doubling down on across the entire stack? Or do you want to be more chip-agnostic? Are we going to see you buying TPUs in the future?

• 1:51:24Speaker 06

  No, we definitely, well, a couple of things that are there to unpack. The first is, we're very excited about Tranium and think it has enormous potential. And we absolutely think there's a benefit to optimizing every single layer of that stack where we have the best cost performance that we can deliver at Tranium. We have optimized models for you to use and applications and agents at the top of that that we talked about. So we think that whole optimization of that stack is going to be critically important. And of course, we're going to support choice for our customers as well. And so we'll continue to offer GPUs from Nvidia as an example. And we have a very tight partnership there. But we do think and we're quite excited about what Tranium 3 is going to offer for customers.

• 1:52:07Speaker 06

  And I do think that we're going to see an explosion of that ecosystem as more and more people get access to those chips and are able to take advantage of the pretty significant cost performance benefits that you can get from running on Tranium.

• 1:52:18John Coogan?

  How are you thinking about open source? The open source ecosystem that you need to build around Tranium. That's the big discussion with the TPU right now. The question of, you know, Google has some amazing folks. They have some amazing software folks, it seems like. They don't necessarily need to open source everything. And so a lot of people are waiting to see how much the industry, you know, builds open source alternatives independently versus how much does Google just give away? What's your thought process on building an open source ecosystem? Or even just giving developers access to closed source software to run efficiently on Tranium?

• 1:53:00Speaker 06

  Yeah, no, we're all in favor of having an open set of software to run on Tranium. In fact, we have our Neuron SDK, which is open source today and allows everyone to contribute to that. We think that the more that we can collaborate on that software ecosystem to make it easier for people to use chips. And we, of course, support the broad set of whether it's PyTorch or other kind of open frameworks as well. So we collaborate across the industry on that and are big advocates of contributing to and supporting that open ecosystem.

• 1:53:34John Coogan?

  Jordi?

• 1:53:35Jordi Hays?

  Love to get your insight on just like general constraints for AWS as a business, what you guys are doing on the power side. Is that a real constraint? Anything that you can share there?

• 1:53:48Speaker 06

  Yeah, you know, like it's as we're scaling incredibly rapidly, we've, you know, we recently announced that we've added 3.8 gigawatts of data center capacity in the last year alone, which is just an insane amount of data center capacity.

• 1:54:01John Coogan?

  Thank you.

• 1:54:03Speaker 06

  Oh, you're welcome. And so it's ramping incredibly fast and it is a constraint. You know, we have more demand than we have supply today for AI.

• 1:54:13John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 1:54:14Speaker 06

  And as we ramp up the supply chain, we think about all of the constraints. We think about chip constraints. We think about networking constraints. We think about power constraints. We think about networking constraints, data centers, et cetera. And so we're working really hard to try to remove every single one of those. And with an industry that's growing as rapidly as the AI one is, there's always going to be some constraints and we work really hard to keep removing blockers every time so we can keep growing fast.

• 1:54:41Jordi Hays?

  Makes sense.

• 1:54:42John Coogan?

  Um, well, we have a hard stop. So thank you so much for taking the time on such a busy day to come chat with us. Uh, would love to have you back on the show and go way deeper, but thanks so much. And, uh, congratulations on all the massive releases. We're excited to dig in deeper and keep chatting about them. Uh, but have a great rest of your day. We'll talk to you soon.

• 1:54:59Jordi Hays?

  Thanks for having me on.

• 1:55:00John Coogan?

  Goodbye.

• 1:55:01Jordi Hays?

  Cheers.

• 1:55:02John Coogan?

  Um, let me tell you about public.com investing for those that take it seriously. They got multi-ass investing and they're trusted by millions. Um, we have take him, author of the Nvidia way and a baron's senior writer, joining the show, take him, the author of the Nvidia way.

• 1:55:19Jordi Hays?

  Take him on the beat.

• 1:55:20John Coogan?

  For joining the show. And I'm sorry it took us so long. Uh, we've exchanged, uh, posts on, on X many times and, uh, we wanted to have you on the show earlier, but I'm so glad you

• 1:55:30Jordi Hays?

  We gotta ask right away.

• 1:55:31John Coogan?

  Did, because it's the perfect time to talk to you.

• 1:55:33Jordi Hays?

  Do you have roommates?

• 1:55:35Tae Kim?

  Not.

• 1:55:37Jordi Hays?

  No roommates.

• 1:55:38Tae Kim?

  But for our first guys, long time listener, first time caller. I'm so excited to be on this.

• 1:55:44John Coogan?

  I'm so excited to have you here. Reminder, everyone, go buy the book. Seriously, uh, Christmas is coming. I can't imagine a better gift for

• 1:55:52Jordi Hays?

  For a 10 year old?

• 1:55:53John Coogan?

  For a four year old.

• 1:55:54Jordi Hays?

  For even, yeah.

• 1:55:55John Coogan?

  I know what my son's getting. He's getting the Nvidia way. Jensen Wong, teach him young.

• 1:55:59Jordi Hays?

  Multiple copies.

• 1:56:00John Coogan?

  Multiple copies. No, seriously. Get, get 10 copies.

• 1:56:03Tae Kim?

  A lot of teenagers, a lot of teenagers have, have read it. Like it's amazing. And they reach out and, uh, it's inspirational entrepreneurial book that a lot of parents are giving to their kids. So definitely.

• 1:56:14Jordi Hays?

  I love your, uh, your headset, by the way.

• 1:56:18John Coogan?

  The headset's elite.

• 1:56:19Jordi Hays?

  We're actually developing our own TBPN

• 1:56:21John Coogan?

  Locked in.

• 1:56:21Jordi Hays?

  Your headset, because this is just like, this is the, this is the ideal, ideal setup.

• 1:56:26Tae Kim?

  I was telling my friend, I don't care if I look like a dork. My hearing is going. So like I get locked in when I have the headset, I could hear everything.

• 1:56:34Jordi Hays?

  No, and it's wired. The worst, the worst is AirPods. AirPods have a tiny lag. If you're doing Zoom calls, it just, it ruins it. But we feel like, we feel like you're right here at the table with us.

• 1:56:44John Coogan?

  It's not code red over there. He's Baja blasting.

• 1:56:46Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:56:47John Coogan?

  You know, he's Baja blasting. Um, anyway, uh, yeah, let's, let's, uh, we, we, I mean, we have some time. Let, let's run through, uh, I want to know a little bit more about Your perception of Jensen, your perception of Nvidia, and just set the table for us. We know how, what is his management style? How does he, he has all the direct reports? He reads everyone's like to-do lists every day. They have tons of employees. They never fire people. Like, what makes Nvidia's culture unique? Set the table for us, so then we can go into the opportunities and challenges with that framework in mind.

• 1:57:22Tae Kim?

  So, so the first thing I've found about their culture is it's very blunt.

• 1:57:26John Coogan?

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:57:27Tae Kim?

  Like, I think in most companies, and you guys have done startups, but I don't know if you work for large corporations.

• 1:57:32John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:57:33Tae Kim?

  Bureaucracy builds a process that gets ossified.

• 1:57:36John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:57:37Tae Kim?

  Nvidia is the complete opposite. Like, if things are not going well, he'll chew you out in front of the whole company.

• 1:57:43John Coogan?

  Gosh.

• 1:57:43Tae Kim?

  And that kind of blunt mentality, I think, you know, sparks better performance because you don't want to be embarrassed in front of Jensen's, in front of the whole company.

• 1:57:52John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:57:52Tae Kim?

  But also, it, it just sparks agility. Like, when I talk to people at Intel or Google, like, the biggest problem they had is meeting paralysis. And you need to get sign-offs from like five different executives. At Nvidia, like, you have a meeting, Jensen makes the call, he seeks out the right information, and he moves. So, there's agility at Nvidia. The other thing is just a meritocracy. Even from the beginning, like 30 years ago, Jensen's always asking, who's the smartest person that you work with? Who should I try to recruit? And from the beginning, like Dwight Dirks, who's one of the top people right now, he recruited him because he talked to this other guy and he said, oh Dwight's really smart.

• 1:58:36Tae Kim?

  Like, I really enjoyed working with him. And he just, almost ruthless in a sense, he just goes after him and then recruits and brings people aboard. So, this meritocracy, agility, speed, and just getting rid of the internal politics, I think, really separates Nvidia.

• 1:58:52Jordi Hays?

  Mm-hmm. How has most of the team becoming millionaires affected the culture?

• 1:59:00Jordi Hays?

  If at all.

• 1:59:01Tae Kim?

  Um, I think they have that thing in the first ten fifteen years, like people started getting sports cars and putting them in the parking lot. But a lot of people.

• 1:59:09John Coogan?

  Let's go. That's the best news I've ever heard. That's fantastic.

• 1:59:13Tae Kim?

  But.

• 1:59:13Jordi Hays?

  Sounds like it's had an incredible impact on the culture.

• 1:59:15John Coogan?

  Yeah, the job's finished. Okay, you can, you can, you don't need to respond. You don't need to say anything more.

• 1:59:19Tae Kim?

  I think winning culture breeds winning and people want to stay with winners, right?

• 1:59:25John Coogan?

  You want to win on the track then.

• 1:59:27Tae Kim?

  A lot of people I meet in terms of colleagues, they work for a company for five years and the trip doesn't work out.

• 1:59:33John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:59:33Tae Kim?

  And you just wasted five, seven years of your life. So you want to stay within winning company and Nvidia's been winning for thirty years. So it it's kind of like winning if it gets winning. You get the talent and then the talent stays. Like there's so many top executives at Nvidia that have stayed there for twenty five, thirty years.

• 1:59:49Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, there's also, there's, there's, there's some benefit of people when if, if, if somebody doesn't have a scarcity mindset, right? And they're just playing to win. Like they're just like, they're, they're, they're, they're no longer thinking like, oh, if we can just get to that next milestone and get this secondary sale. And if I, if I can participate and if I can invest my two years and sell into the next tender offer, then I'll, you know, they're just like, we're good. All that matters is just being as elite as we possibly can be and just, uh, and, and doing it for the love of the game, basically.

• 2:00:21Tae Kim?

  And a lot of these people that like they made it, they could retire. They could have retired ten, twenty years ago, but they stay and work, still work eighty hours, a hundred hours a week. Because that's what's expected. Like even the marketing people at Nvidia are working eighty, eighty-five hours a week. And that, that kind of mentality, I think, is different at the companies.

• 2:00:40John Coogan?

  Hmm. Okay, let's, uh, let's shift into the competitive dynamic. I mean, Nvidia's been, uh, we, I was revisiting the performance of the Mag Seven since the dawn of ChatGPT. It's been three years exactly. Nvidia, by far the winner, top ten X on market cap. Uh, the next closest company, I think, maybe four Xed, uh, by comparison. And so, uh, the clear AI winner in the public markets, the most obvious AI trade that just completely ripped. Now, you know, there's this whole narrative of like, uh, how strong is their moat? What is, what does the TPU mean? Is the TPU going to be significantly competitive? Is there going to be margin compression?

• 2:01:21John Coogan?

  How have you been processing this new narrative that Nvidia might face serious competitive threats because they're so on top of the world? Everyone owes them so much money that people are saying, I gotta get a discount from somewhere. I'll go to Google, maybe.

• 2:01:38Tae Kim?

  I want to talk about this 10x move.

• 2:01:41John Coogan?

  Please.

• 2:01:41Tae Kim?

  It hasn't been like straight up to the right. There's always been, every three, six months, there's always a reason to sell Nvidia. Like the H100 problem, the transition to Blackwell, China ASIC, Broadcom competition. So this, this stuff has been happening, this entire 10x move up. And the media loves to latch on to the latest thing to worry about, right? We had DeepSeek earlier this year, the entire media establishment was, it's over for the AI trade. AI models have become so efficient when it was actually the opposite because the reasoning models and there was an exponential demand for compute. So I, I find it amusing, like the whole world kind of discovered that Google had a really good chip in the TPU.

• 2:02:25John Coogan?

  Which they've been working on for a decade, too.

• 2:02:28Tae Kim?

  They've had it for 10 years, right? They've offered it to clients in 2018. This is nothing new. The Ironwood specs, you know, which I always take with a grain of salt with specs. Even, even in Nvidia, they talk about 25x improvement with Blackwell. When it's more like.

• 2:02:44Jordi Hays?

  I'm really just focused on the name Ironwood is, goes pretty hard.

• 2:02:47John Coogan?

  It's pretty good. They, they got some good names over there in Google.

• 2:02:51Tae Kim?

  Ironwood came out, all the specs came out in April. Like this is not, all this stuff is, isn't new. And another thing I want to say is TPUs, their chips, Morgan Stanley estimates, there was a huge decline in TPU shipments in 2025. And Google, at Google Cloud, Nvidia GPUs took more share than TPUs this year. Like no one talks about this, right? And now everyone's going, Ironwood is going to take over the world and Nvidia's in trouble.

• 2:03:20John Coogan?

  Is that just because we're still.

• 2:03:21Jordi Hays?

  I think, I mean, I think it was a Gemini three, it was a, no, it was a Gemini three. People are like Gemini three is the best model in the world.

• 2:03:27John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:03:28Jordi Hays?

  On by by the benchmark.

• 2:03:29Tae Kim?

  World for a whopping six days and chat GPT is still number one on the app store.

• 2:03:34John Coogan?

  Yeah, but I mean, it's six days. It was unseated by Claude, which was also anthropic, which is also TP potentially in the future.

• 2:03:41Tae Kim?

  Yes, and chat GPT, Microsoft, the head of Microsoft AI Cloud, Scott Graff three, that OpenAI is training their next models on the GB three hundred and DL seven two that what just went live in October. Actually, earlier today, the Nvidia CFO said it's going to take six months. So I was a little disappointed in that.

• 2:04:01John Coogan?

  Wait, six months for the training run?

• 2:04:03Tae Kim?

  Yeah, well, she said the first models on Blackwell, like on the super clusters are going to take six months. So.

• 2:04:09John Coogan?

  Delay the singularity.

• 2:04:11Tae Kim?

  But.

• 2:04:11John Coogan?

  It's gonna be another, another six months.

• 2:04:13Tae Kim?

  OpenAI is going to get there. The Claude and Gemini.

• 2:04:16John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:04:16Tae Kim?

  Uh, benchmark gains with pre-training.

• 2:04:19John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:04:19Tae Kim?

  That's the most bullish thing for the whole AI industry, right? AI, AI adoption is the scaling laws are intact. Everything's going to work out and OpenAI is going to get there when they build their next training run on the next model. So, so going back to TPUs, uh, thank goodness, a shout out to semi analysis. They do the best channel work in the industry. Everyone freaked out on Friday, right? They read that semi analysis. No, oh, no, total cost of ownership.

• 2:04:50John Coogan?

  TPUV seven.

• 2:04:51Tae Kim?

  They're going to destroy it. But like people that actually know the industry, it was flaming bullish for Nvidia.

• 2:04:57John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:04:57Tae Kim?

  Like it, it just, it was like so obvious in my face because Dylan and the Sammy analysis, they said, wait a minute. The next TPUV eight is not going to be that great. They lost a ton of people and the, the set function up and performance is not going to be that great. So you know what's going to be great? Nvidia's Vera Rubin, which comes out at the end of next year.

• 2:05:18John Coogan?

  Mm hmm.

• 2:05:18Tae Kim?

  So no company is going to.

• 2:05:20Jordi Hays?

  People are saying it's the Rick Rubin of chips.

• 2:05:24John Coogan?

  Are they related?

• 2:05:25Tae Kim?

  Anyway, so Vera Rubin is going to be dramatically better at the end of next year. And even if, you know, the the Iowa, which just became generally available and they're ramping right now. It's it's it's no one's going to switch over for one. It's a huge endeavor to put workloads from CUDA and Nvidia GPUs and put them on. There's always problems when you put them on a new chip.

• 2:05:50John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 2:05:51Tae Kim?

  And and let's talk about TPU customers, right? Everyone freaked out that Meta might spend a few billion dollars in 2027. That sounds like a lot, right? That's less than 1% of Nvidia's expected revenue.

• 2:06:03John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:06:04Tae Kim?

  It's nothing. And Ben Thompson was very smart and astute. He's like, who's going to buy the TPU? Who are the biggest buyers of AI chips?

• 2:06:12John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:06:12Tae Kim?

  They're the hyperscalers, right?

• 2:06:14John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:06:14Tae Kim?

  So maybe Meta will put a portion of their workloads, 1% Nvidia's revenue. Is Amazon going to buy TPUs?

• 2:06:21Jordi Hays?

  Well, John just asked the CEO of AWS if he was going to buy TPUs. He dodged that question.

• 2:06:26John Coogan?

  He didn't say yes.

• 2:06:28Tae Kim?

  There's no way in hell they're going to buy TPUs. They have their own trinium. They're not going to support their number one, like one of the number one.

• 2:06:36Jordi Hays?

  Their arch rival.

• 2:06:37Tae Kim?

  Yeah, they're not doing that. So is Microsoft going to buy?

• 2:06:40John Coogan?

  You should have been like, yes, I'm going to buy one so I can like study it.

• 2:06:44Tae Kim?

  Microsoft's not going to buy. They're the number two player in cloud computing and they're not. Are the Neo clouds going to buy TPUs? Now you're going to say, yes, Google has some Neo clouds. You know what happened with those Neo clouds? They're financially backstopping those Neo clouds. So Google is financially giving money and and backstopping the debt for those Neo clouds. So so there's a handful of small Neo clouds, but is CoreWeave going to buy TPUs? Probably not, right? Who are the other customers of AI chips? Enterprises, companies, sovereign AI.

• 2:07:15John Coogan?

  Yeah, anybody that wants to run like a fine tune model, some small model, something like that.

• 2:07:19Tae Kim?

  Yeah. 90 to 95. I'd say those.

• 2:07:22John Coogan?

  Barons.

• 2:07:23Tae Kim?

  Would that bite?

• 2:07:26Tae Kim?

  So like, if you just go down on a first principles basis and look at the customers of AI chips, like, they're gonna stick with Nvidia. The millions of developers know CUDA. So you don't have to, you really need, like Dylan talked about this, is you really need like top-notch, like, software sophisticated engineers that can like work with TPU, that learn, learn JAX and all that stuff. So, most people aren't, don't have those crackerjack engineers, right? So, they're gonna stick with Nvidia because everyone's used to Nvidia. Nvidia is backwards compatible and forwards compatible, so like 20, 30 years of this stuff. And if you buy it, Nvidia, the CFO talked about this morning, it's, um,

• 2:08:09Tae Kim?

  you can use it for training and they can use it for inference, it's all on the same architecture and it's gonna work. Like, I, I talked to an AI startup CEO a few months ago, he tried AWS training. Oh, it looks a lot cheaper, total cost of ownership. But then it crashed, there were bugs, the reliability, they, they couldn't figure out what happened and there's like, they just threw up their hands, I give up. Like, no one is gonna, like, if you have reliability problems, bugs, crashes, the best thing about Nvidia is all that stuff has been ironed out over the last 10, 15 years. If you have a problem, you can figure it out.

• 2:08:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, it's like giving, giving an F1, giving an F1 driver like a car that, that is unreliable and saying like, hey, go, go race. Go race, have, have fun out there. And then it's like, you know, DNF for me.

• 2:08:56Tae Kim?

  Specs, specs look awesome, it looks, seems great, but then when actually, build your business on it, you, you put the future of your business onto something. You, the number one thing, it's not price, it's like, it better fuck, better work. It better work. And with Nvidia, it works.

• 2:09:12John Coogan?

  Yeah, but, what, uh, react to the, this idea that Dylan Patel was joking about as, uh, TPU is a stalking horse. So, this idea that Sam Altman is already saving 30% on his Nvidia purchases effectively, because just the threat of going to TPU is enough to get Nvidia to make an investment or slightly dis-

• 2:09:35John Coogan?

  Account in one way or another.

• 2:09:36Tae Kim?

  I don't think that's reality and I don't think that math actually works because I think he's confusing the AMD deal where AMD gave, you know, free warrants to OpenAI, right? First of all, the deal's not done.

• 2:09:48John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:09:48Tae Kim?

  It's a letter of intent.

• 2:09:49John Coogan?

  None of these deals are done. They're not done.

• 2:09:53Tae Kim?

  AMD's AMD's done. They they signed an agreement where they're giving away a percentage of their company through these free warrants. The Nvidia deal hasn't been signed yet and they actually language into 10Q that it might not happen.

• 2:10:04Jordi Hays?

  Sure. Doesn't doesn't OpenAI have to buy AMD chips in order to get the warrants?

• 2:10:10Tae Kim?

  Yes, yes, yes.

• 2:10:11Jordi Hays?

  And so it's still it still could be that they don't actually end up going through with the purchase and then they wouldn't get.

• 2:10:16John Coogan?

  That's a good point.

• 2:10:17Tae Kim?

  Yeah, yeah. So so the whole like, let's do a side step here with the circularity and all that stuff. All this stuff, it's like one gig at one at a time. There's a milestones on OpenAI, there's milestones on AMD, technical milestones, they have to achieve certain targets. So all this talk about, you know, everyone loves the the big number that adds up five years to capex.

• 2:10:37John Coogan?

  Well, a lot.

• 2:10:41Tae Kim?

  Like that, it it's it could get, the leverage could be up or down depending on how things happen every each year of the way. So, you know, it might not be that big number if OpenAI doesn't come out with an amazing model or AMD isn't able to hit the milestones they set for their next 450 Mi chip, right? So, like, it, you know, don't worry about five years, like, take it one year at a time. Right now, demand is off the charts. Now, going back to the Nvidia 30% discount, like, that's not how equity investments work. If Nvidia does invest 10 billion, 10 billion, up to 100 billion, say that, say that Nvidia gets ownership of the company. It's not like a freebie, right? You're giving away ownership of your company. So it's not really a discount.

• 2:11:26Tae Kim?

  You're getting you're getting a ownership of the company. So I I don't really believe in this 30% discount thing because Nvidia, Jensen will say they're they're investing to accelerate OpenAI. And they they they're looking forward to, you know, OpenAI going.

• 2:11:41John Coogan?

  I mean, it's definitely creative. It's definitely a new structure. I'm just trying to. I would I would steal man in that like if I'm an entrepreneur and somebody comes to me and they're like I'm gonna invest a hundred million dollars in your company over a series of milestones and you're also gonna buy something from me. I'm like, yeah, I'm taking some dilution, but realistically, like, this is a way less of a headache. Like, where else was I gonna get a hundred billion dollars from? In in OpenAI's case, like, it's a great, it's a great source of funding that, yes, it will be diluted, but the whole structure is all diluted all the time because of all the different ownerships.

• 2:12:18Tae Kim?

  Except for this kind of sentiment thing that we had the last few weeks, so OpenAI hasn't had any problem in raising money for venture capital.

• 2:12:25John Coogan?

  Yeah, that's true. Yeah.

• 2:12:26Tae Kim?

  It's not, it's not like Nvidia is the only source of funding for OpenAI. Like, everyone wants in. Their revenue run rate, it's like five billion to twenty billion at the end of this year.

• 2:12:36John Coogan?

  So what was your take on the code red? What what do you think about the code red?

• 2:12:41Tae Kim?

  So I I saw that you you showed that Ashley Vance.

• 2:12:45John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:12:46Tae Kim?

  Interview.

• 2:12:46John Coogan?

  Yeah, Mark Chen.

• 2:12:47Tae Kim?

  Really interesting. Mark Chen was talking about how they kind of focused a little too much on reasoning and their pre-training muscle wasn't there. I reasoning, we could talk about this later. Reasoning is like the biggest kind of accelerant of AI demand in the past year. So

• 2:13:03John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:13:04Tae Kim?

  I I think it's actually really good. And supposedly Ilya was, you know, doing the researcher reasoning.

• 2:13:08John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:08Tae Kim?

  Reasoning is awesome, right? But they they kind of focused on reasoning the the past year with O one and O three.

• 2:13:14John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:13:14Tae Kim?

  Um, and now they're like, okay, we have to go back to pre-training. So OpenAI knows that pre-training still works because Gemini three had great pre-training results and and cloud Opus four point five did. So now they're gonna do the pre-training. So they had their focus on one thing, and now they're gonna do the other thing and make their their model much better. I I do agree that OpenAI has been a little too maybe diluted, like they're doing apps.

• 2:13:43John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:13:43Tae Kim?

  They're doing hardware. They want to compete in AI infrastructure against Microsoft and Oracle. They want to compete in AI chips against Nvidia. Like, I I I thought it was really interesting, like Satya repeatedly said, um, he wouldn't name who he's talking to, but it's like.

• 2:14:01Tae Kim?

  I think it's important that we realize this is not a zero sum game and this could be a win win partnership. That was during the Anthropic Nvidia deal with Microsoft, right? He said that a couple of times and I think the person that he's talking to is Sam Altman. Right? Like, let's, let's, Nvidia, Microsoft made OpenAI as successful. They were the partners. Like, why are you competing with your, the partners that brought you to dance, right? Let's, let's go back, focus on making the best AI model in the world and don't compete with Nvidia and Microsoft. Maybe, maybe five years from now, but like, it seems a little aggressive to compete with them right now.

• 2:14:43John Coogan?

  Let's talk about China. There's been a ton of debate over Nvidia selling chips to China, legacy chips, older chips. We've gone back and forth on it so many times. What's your current thinking about the, the, the best policy for Nvidia exporting chips to China generally?

• 2:15:05Tae Kim?

  I think the best thing is to keep it one or two generations behind the current state of the art.

• 2:15:11John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:15:12Tae Kim?

  Like, this is a really nuanced policy that people, you know, everyone's either hawkish or dovish.

• 2:15:17John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 2:15:18Tae Kim?

  Whatever. The best policy is to keep, I don't want to use the word that Howard Lutnick used that got China very upset and forced, forced China to like tell these companies not to buy H20 chips. But the best policy is to get China still on the Nvidia sack. So Nvidia gets $50 billion of revenue per year that can help R and D and fund R and D and make the chips even better. Nvidia and the US already won, right? They had 95% market share. Like, why are we gonna give $50 billion of oxygen? To Huawei and all these other Chinese AI chips companies that now Chinese companies

• 2:16:03Tae Kim?

  that need to buy AI chips are gonna buy Chinese AI chips. Like, why not keep China on the Nvidia tech stack, one or two generations behind? Don't give them the best stuff, but maybe one generation behind. I think that'll be the best compromise for both sides, but I don't know.

• 2:16:19Jordi Hays?

  What do you think? What do you think? Where do you place the likelihood that the Chinese market has opened up again at some point in the next 12 months?

• 2:16:29Tae Kim?

  Maybe 50, 50, 50. I mean, that sounds like a cop out. Like, I was much more positive six months ago, but, you know, this has been just so crazy. First, the Trump administration banned the H20. Yeah. Then they didn't ban it. They said it was fine, but then China was like, no, you hurt our feelings. We're not gonna let companies buy the H20. Yep, and then they banned it. Yeah, and then maybe Trump is gonna let Nvidia sell the H200? Yep. Or a Chinese specific version of Blackwell that's kind of hobbled a little bit? Hmm. Who knows? Like, Nvidia needs to convince the Trump administration and then China to buy the chips. The worst part of it is China was willing to buy the H20, and it's just all the kind

• 2:17:13Tae Kim?

  of geopolitics and hurt feelings. You know, that ship has sailed, so I don't know what's gonna happen. But I do think the ideal situation is Nvidia could sell one generation behind, make $50 billion a year, and keep the competition from Chinese AI startups out of the way.

• 2:17:34Jordi Hays?

  And even understanding that at some point in the future, China's buying effectively zero chips from Nvidia, but it would be five, 10 years in the future?

• 2:17:44Tae Kim?

  Um.

• 2:17:45Jordi Hays?

  It's like you have to assume, you have to assume that like...

• 2:17:52Tae Kim?

  Right now, so

• 2:17:53Jordi Hays?

  Go for it.

• 2:17:55Tae Kim?

  The amazing thing is, it's 0%, right? And Nvidia's revenue accelerated for the first time in two years. Nvidia's revenue accelerated in this latest quarter. And this is like not talked about enough. This is the first quarter that the NVL 72 AI server has been available in volume. And then revenue just skyrocketed without China, which is incredible, right? And that's why I'm so bullish over the next few years. Because, next few quarters, let's say. Because this product cycle is going to last at least three, four quarters. The key tell is a revenue acceleration, first time in two years. And the other key tell is that the networking segment for Nvidia was up 162% year over year.

• 2:18:40Tae Kim?

  And typically, a lot of these data centers and these Neo clouds buy the networking stuff six months ahead of time. So the next six months from now, like the GPU numbers for Blackwell and the NVL 72 server is going to be, it's just going to be bonkers. It's going to be off the charts. And people don't talk about these NVL 72 AI servers. They're $3 to $4 million, right? They're 72 GPUs, 144 dies, one and a half tons, 5,000 cables. And the prior version was eight GPUs. So these AI services, I call it the iPhone 3G moment. Do you guys remember the iPhone 3G?

• 2:19:17John Coogan?

  This is big for the Christmas shoppers out there. If you, if you want a gift, it's a step up from the Nvidia way, I recommend

• 2:19:25Jordi Hays?

  Or you want to bundle something.

• 2:19:26John Coogan?

  Picking up an NVL 72.

• 2:19:28Tae Kim?

  It's only $4 million.

• 2:19:30John Coogan?

  Yeah, but for the right 12-year-old in your life, or the potential, the intern, I think Tyler wants one.

• 2:19:35Jordi Hays?

  It won't fit under the tree, but it could be fun.

• 2:19:38John Coogan?

  No, no, it's like, it's like, it's like a Lexus. You put it in the, in the driveway with the bow on top.

• 2:19:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 2:19:44John Coogan?

  That's the way it does.

• 2:19:45Jordi Hays?

  With a fork, you drop the forklift, come drop it off.

• 2:19:47John Coogan?

  Exactly. I got you an NVL 72, enjoy.

• 2:19:52Tae Kim?

  And then we have the reasoning model thing where exponential compute and like companies are actually seeing like huge cursor forty percent productivity gains. Yeah. E H Robinson forty percent shipments. Rocket Mortgage eighty percent reduction in paperwork costs processing. This is like the next year because of A I reasoning because of the M D S M D two. That's why Amazon and Microsoft said every quarter this year they raised their capex and everyone's like they're gonna cut their capex. They go, no, every single quarter they raise their capex. That's because they're seeing the demand and that's why Amazon and Microsoft are gonna double their data center capacity over the next two years. I mean, that that's crazy, right? Yeah.

• 2:20:37Tae Kim?

  It's September quarter, more leasing, there are more data centers leased than entirety of twenty twenty four. This is like exponential step function up and and people aren't talking about it. They they want to talk about T T U's like destroying Nvidia.

• 2:20:51Jordi Hays?

  What about uh? What what about some of the kind of demand guarantees that have been happening? Is that a is that a concern at all? Do you think about it much? Is it?

• 2:21:03Tae Kim?

  Um, I not really. I mean, demand guarantees like you you're talking about Nvidia and Core Weave. It's like when that happens analysts every every quarter or on the conference call like, did you use that? You know, demand guarantee like it's not happening yet like. Core Weave's five year old G P U's that everyone says are useless are a hundred percent used utilized, right? H one hundred, a massive cluster before it expires, probably a three year contract. They got like ninety five percent of the pricing. This is like unheard of and and the reason is there's overwhelming A I demand and there's not enough capacity.

• 2:21:41Tae Kim?

  Overwhelming A I demand, not enough capacity and and and people just are are just, they don't care about what's happening in the real market. This is real life, facts, evidence, numbers. Nvidia going from fifty six percent revenue growth to sixty two percent revenue growth on fifty seven billion dollars with Daryl Kaina revenue. I mean, these are bonkers numbers. We talk about the stock price being up 10x. Their revenue is up 10x in like two years. This is like beyond history, the last 30 years of following technology.

• 2:22:15Jordi Hays?

  I love how, Evan, you're the, you're the only person without Nvidia fatigue. You're just like, you're not bullish.

• 2:22:21John Coogan?

  David Goggins of.

• 2:22:22Jordi Hays?

  You're the David Goggins.

• 2:22:24Tae Kim?

  I mean.

• 2:22:25Jordi Hays?

  They can't keep running. They can't keep running.

• 2:22:27Tae Kim?

  This is not me just like making stuff up. This is like, that numbers are there right in front of everyone.

• 2:22:32John Coogan?

  You make, you make good points. You make good points. I like it a lot. We'll have to have you back on the show soon. This is a lot of fun.

• 2:22:38Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, let's do it. Let's, let's make this a regular thing. Uh, super fun to have you on finally.

• 2:22:43John Coogan?

  Thanks so much.

• 2:22:44Tae Kim?

  Thanks for having me.

• 2:22:44Jordi Hays?

  All your important time.

• 2:22:46John Coogan?

  Uh, the book is the Nvidia way. Get it at wherever books are sold. Get 10 copies. Give it to everyone in your life. Also, give the gift of fin.ai, the number one AI agent for customer service. Automate your most complex customer service queries on every channel.

• 2:23:08Jordi Hays?

  Up next.

• 2:23:09John Coogan?

  Well, yeah, we, we can just go straight into our next guest.

• 2:23:11Jordi Hays?

  Let's bring in.

• 2:23:12John Coogan?

  We have Tarek from Kalshi with some massive news. Tarek, great to see you. How are you doing?

• 2:23:18Jordi Hays?

  Locked in from the often floor.

• 2:23:19John Coogan?

  Stream.

• 2:23:21John Coogan?

  Good to see you.

• 2:23:21Tarek Mansour?

  Hey guys, thanks for having me. Very excited to be here.

• 2:23:24John Coogan?

  You are locked in. Look at that backdrop. Fantastic. Uh, please, uh, introduce yourself. You've been introduced. Give, give us the update. What's the news? Let's ring the gong.

• 2:23:33Tarek Mansour?

  Uh, well, we just raised our series E. Um, we just raised a billion dollars, 11 billion.

• 2:23:40Jordi Hays?

  Great wind up. Great wind up.

• 2:23:42Tarek Mansour?

  I was waiting for the gong.

• 2:23:43John Coogan?

  Congratulations.

• 2:23:44Tarek Mansour?

  Fucking sick moment.

• 2:23:47Jordi Hays?

  Uh, yeah, great to have you on. Uh, I don't, I was thinking over the, I don't know if anybody had a crazier Thanksgiving holiday than you. It was, there's a lot, there's a lot going on last week. So nice, nice to come out of that with a, with a, with a big announcement, but, um, but yeah, maybe, maybe kind of just update us on, um, uh, I think everybody's, has been following the prediction market wars. The, the, the more important story I think is just.

• 2:24:13John Coogan?

  Some people are calling it bloodbath, actually.

• 2:24:15Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. I mean, just like, it's been a battlefield on the timeline, but, um, but yeah, I think like the, what's happening in the background is like this explosion of this, you know, new asset class that, um, you know, again, I think, uh, in your announcement earlier, you were saying. A few years ago, there, nobody really cared at all. And now, you and the industry broadly have millions of users. So it's pretty unprecedented. But yeah, what's been the latest on your mind?

• 2:24:45Tarek Mansour?

  I think the thing that's happening right now is prediction markets, I think, have gone mainstream. I think every inch of evidence is pointing towards that. And I think that the thing that we're seeing is there's sort of one of these rare shifts in consumer behavior that you don't see often. Like, they don't happen, like, changing the behavior of a customer, the habits of a customer is a rare thing, and it's unique. And when you see it, you have to really go after it with all your might.

• 2:25:13Tarek Mansour?

  And it's, you know, there's like a number of things that have to align for that to happen. And I think they're aligning for prediction markets. I think it's happening. And I think there's, you know, one factor is the fact that people are not really trusting the sort of legacy media and legacy sources of information. And they go to prediction markets to get smarter. The other one is that they're legal now. You know, Kalshi has took on this sort of battle over years to legalize this entire market and, you know, set it up as a legitimate financial asset so that anyone can participate. And three, I mean, I think we're all kind of, we sort of caught wildfire this year. I mean, I think the, we're seeing people, there's a little bit of this phenomenon where you cannot watch a sports game without looking at the Kalshi odds live and the Kalshi charts.

• 2:25:57Tarek Mansour?

  You cannot talk, debate about a topic about the future without, you know, talenting somebody to put a position on Kalshi on the app. So it's a huge announcement. We're very excited about it. And honestly, it really feels like we're just, we're just scratching the surface of what prediction markets can be.

• 2:26:14John Coogan?

  One thing I've noticed when I'm watching a sports game is there's sometimes an integration with Kalshi, sometimes with a competitor. What's actually going on?

• 2:26:25Jordi Hays?

  You know, legacy sportsbook.

• 2:26:26John Coogan?

  Yeah. What is actually going on? I feel like a lot of people who are just passively observing the timeline are seeing a lot of like announcements and partnerships with-

• 2:26:34Jordi Hays?

  The partnership economy.

• 2:26:37John Coogan?

  And people are joking about it. Like, what's actually going on? What's at stake with some of these partnerships? What have you done? And what does it actually mean? Because it feels like if you do a partnership with a specific league, that doesn't necessarily mean that I can't get odds on that event somewhere else. So what is actually going on with the partnership economy?

• 2:26:57Tarek Mansour?

  I mean, I'll tell you kind of our approach to this. So we are building, you know, our focus is building on a business that's very metrics-driven. You know, and sort of for context, so we're doing a billion and a half of volume a week now. Wow. And, you know, we're market leader by meaningful margin. I think depending on sort of how you measure it, so we're something around 80 to 90% market share now. And I think any partnership we do, we bucket them in a bunch of categories, but they're all focused on like actually driving legitimate volume and legitimate use case into the product. So our partnership with, you know, platforms like Robinhood, I mean Coinbase leaked, it's coming in December, and PrizeFix, Weibo are kind of in that bucket. Then we have partnerships with, a series of partnerships coming around news.

• 2:27:40Tarek Mansour?

  One of them leaked this morning in the New York Times article, but they're also very... One sentence, 10 leaks. Everything leaks these days. I, you know, we're just like, nothing is news anymore. It's like, you know, it's all leaks. But, but the point is, we're focused on things that drive legitimate use to the products and, and, and then drive legitimate utility to the partner. And so, you know, whether it's a broker, obviously, you know, this could be a big revenue line for them. And if it's a news network, it's a complement to their reporting that actually makes the reporting more accurate and, you know, reporters love truth and prediction markets bring truth. So you could see the synergies and how they fit. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

• 2:28:23Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, what, uh, yeah, I, I think the, uh, some of the, some of the big news out of last week is that Robinhood is, is entering, uh, and kind of potentially trying to verticalize the product experience on their side. What can you say about the, I guess, like, how you see the structure of the market evolving? You guys are an exchange. Robinhood is a brokerage. Sounds like they're trying to actually build an underlying exchange themselves. How much should, how much should sort of observers of the industry look to how the, how stock trading and stock markets, stock exchanges have evolved versus prediction markets?

• 2:29:04Jordi Hays?

  Like, what does this market kind of look like in five years, 10 years, as much as you can kind of pull out a crystal ball for us?

• 2:29:13Tarek Mansour?

  I mean, maybe the basics is like, and you've seen this a little bit in AI, right? After you see the success we've had,

• 2:29:21Tarek Mansour?

  it's basically indicative of like, okay, there's a massive market opportunity ahead of us. And when that happens, I think you're gonna inevitably see a ton of competition. And generally, in those markets, like the this sort of massive surge of competition, whether it's brokers, there are some of the sportsbooks like Draxx and FanDuel coming in. It's just usually a sign that there's a lot of good things to come for that market, right? It's a sign that like you have big companies reprioritizing their entire roadmaps to go all in after this.

• 2:29:52Tarek Mansour?

  And that's a positive for us, like we're market leader in a market that, you know, everybody is starting to believe is going to be ginormous.

• 2:30:00Tarek Mansour?

  In terms of the specific question of market structure, I mean, like, you know, we have obviously the exchange, we also have our direct products. In some ways, it's competitive with some of our partners. And I think, you know, the same way that we're working with a lot of different brokers over time, some brokers are gonna sort of diversify and work with a number of different exchanges. And that's how these sort of market structure evolve over time. And the only thing that matters, the kind of the thing that stands out is similar to any other market is product. And product velocity is, are you putting out products faster than anybody else? And are you putting out products better than everybody else? And I think Kashi has had a pretty incredible track record of setting the pace in the industry. At least if you look at the last year, we've set the pace in the industry and everyone's following. And I feel pretty good about us continuing to do so in the next 24 months.

• 2:30:41John Coogan?

  How do you think about the market structure? I think everyone's wondering, like, obviously, this is a new market. It's unlocking entirely new sort of asset classes. And it's obviously big, everyone's excited about the numbers. But is this a natural monopoly? Is this duopoly? Like, how many winners will there be? How do you even think about the market structure? Is there some return to scale?

• 2:31:07Tarek Mansour?

  It's interesting, like I kind of like don't think much about that. Like I think investors love to sort of, investors do this thing where they're sort of gonna rationalize all of it in five years. You know, everybody's gonna be super smart about how they like all figure it out. But like, look, I think that like it's a very nascent thing, right? It's, it's, you know, like it has some similarities to rideshare. It has some similarities to the drafting span dual era when that happened. It has some similarities to the online brokerage industry. And it has some similarities to financial exchanges, like CME. So where does it fall? Probably somewhere in between all of these sort of buckets. And probably not exactly the same as any of the, any of these other buckets.

• 2:31:45Tarek Mansour?

  And I think that you'll see more of, I think with enough scale in financial services, but also true for any industry. Everyone gets into everyone's territory. And so it, well, the only thing that matters again is a sort of what companies are going to rise above the others in terms of product velocity and product quality.

• 2:32:00John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:32:01Tarek Mansour?

  And that's just what we're narrowly focused on.

• 2:32:03John Coogan?

  There's a question from the chat. Can you explain how external market making works on Kalshi?

• 2:32:09Tarek Mansour?

  It's been a, for some reason, a hot topic recently, but you know, market makers are part of any financial market. You kind of need them to basically have liquidity in markets. And actually Kalshi and prediction markets have less customer to market maker flow than traditional markets. If you look at options, for example, it's like the vast majority is, you know, Jordy to a market maker like Citadel. Whereas on Kalshi, actually, the vast majority is, you know, Jordy versus John. And then some of it goes to market makers. And it's an open transparent order book where everyone's competing on price.

• 2:32:42Tarek Mansour?

  And we have actually a separate company called Kalshi Trading that trades on the exchange. But they're a very small percentage of any liquid markets. Really, their function has been for new markets are a little bit weird.

• 2:32:52John Coogan?

  Yeah, liquid markets, yeah, that makes sense because it's some really, really niche thing. Who's gonna put in the first 500 bucks?

• 2:32:57Tarek Mansour?

  Exactly.

• 2:32:58John Coogan?

  You take the risk.

• 2:32:59Tarek Mansour?

  And they're not very profitable. It's actually, we really, like, they're really focused on providing a good customer experience that we bootstrap markets.

• 2:33:05John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:33:06Tarek Mansour?

  Rather than like any meaningful part of the business model today. And if we took it out, it'd be actually a worse experience. So I think it's definitely not positive for the ecosystem. But it's a bit like Uber, you know, when the adverse interest got impacted. The taxis, they were coming up with all these reasons, right? Like, you know, about all these kind of random reasons, but I don't think there's much truth to it.

• 2:33:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, so I'm sure you can't comment on any specific lawsuit. There's a number of them. But what has been the... I think there's quite a lot of prediction markets experts that have looked at some recent lawsuits again against prediction markets and said, they clearly don't understand how this works. Like, can you comment at all on some kind of like misunderstandings broadly?

• 2:33:51Tarek Mansour?

  Yeah, so what Kaochi has done is first regulate prediction markets as a financial instrument under this agency called the CFTC. People have been hearing more about the CFT recently because it also regulates crypto. And that's one of the main financial agencies. There's the SEC that does stocks and CFT that does commodities. And then we did the same thing with elections and now we did the same thing with sports. And the way that it works is like financial markets, those are regulated at the federal level. And so the law around these markets is just federal. They kind of report to a federal government and federal regulator, not a state government and state regulator. And there's a bunch of reasons for that, but you know, it's kind of how the constitution was formed,

• 2:34:33Tarek Mansour?

  which is some stuff makes sense at the federal level and some stuff is more local and makes sense at the state level. And we are one of these things that fall under the federal level. And federal law preempts state law. So if you are okay on the federal side, state law doesn't really kind of apply to that exchange. And that's why we have one regulator, which is the CFTC, our federal regulator. And again, like I think it's normal with... Like when something so disruptive happens to an industry, the people that are adversely impacted are going to come after it and come up with all sorts of arguments for why it shouldn't exist or why, you know, Airbnb was terrible and all these different things. But at the end of the day, the thing that drives it long term is is this a great product and are consumers loving it and using it? And the answer is yes, in this case.

• 2:35:16Jordi Hays?

  Off of the success of Kaochi and Polymarket, there's been a bunch of net new prediction market startups that are created. Is there a possibility that this market like ends up having these sort of like niche, maybe more like vertical marketplaces? Or do you think that the platforms with the greatest liquidity and the deepest liquidity will ultimately just absorb those sub-markets?

• 2:35:47Tarek Mansour?

  It depends on how narrowly we define prediction markets versus broadly. Like, I really think of prediction markets as kind of just like a next gen, like expansion of financial markets to touch anything. Kalsi means everything in Arabic, but really, if markets progressively grew over time, Kalsi, what we did is just like kind of widened that set dramatically over what it could touch. So, I could see some startups innovating on like specific verticals over time and doing reasonably well, but there is real concentration of liquidity and concentration of volume that happens in these types of markets that is hard, I would say, to battle with. And so, I think at least from that aspect, like I think that the cards are probably mostly shuffled already.

• 2:36:31Jordi Hays?

  That makes sense.

• 2:36:33John Coogan?

  Last question. There was a viral clip of you talking about Donald Trump Jr. Do you have anything more to share on his involvement? Because I was watching that and I was like, yeah, it's kind of like, hey, where are we going with this thing? It seems like politicians have a deep insight on how campaigns use these prediction markets, but can you share anything more about his involvement in the company?

• 2:36:57Tarek Mansour?

  Yeah, I mean, look, first of all, that clip is a clip and you know how these clips are taken, but you know.

• 2:37:03Jordi Hays?

  Who needs context?

• 2:37:04Tarek Mansour?

  Yeah, it's like, we don't need context, it's a completely, you know. Anyways, look, I think that, you know, we have done, like, one of the main products that took us mainstream was the election market, and that brings a lot of attention from politicians on both sides of the aisle. And you see it, you know, Trump at the time was using his prediction markets all during the election, and actually, Mamdani more recently was using his Kalsi odds pretty consistently during his election. And so, in some ways, like, you're gonna see a lot more, like, prediction markets are gonna touch financial markets, they're gonna touch the news, and they're gonna touch the political process, because they bring more truth to all of the above, all of these categories. And in some ways, it's good that, like, we get more and more, I would say, like, politicians involved and like, engage with these markets.

• 2:37:49Tarek Mansour?

  The one thing I'll say about this, and like, again, it's very, it's in the same bucket as the, you know, as the other things that we discussed, where like, there's industry dissidents that are against prediction markets, that find all these different reasons for why prediction markets might be bad. But the thing that happened is not this administration necessarily, even though this administration is pro-innovation. Is we won that lawsuit on the election market, which has really redefined what the landscape, what the boundaries of what a financial market is. And that lawsuit was one, you know, is a court of appeals in G C with relative, it's a very progressive panel. It was a panel of democratic judges where we won 3-0. So people want to make it out to be a partisan issue, even though I don't think truth needs to be a partisan issue. It's just, you know, these markets work.

• 2:38:32Tarek Mansour?

  People love them and they generate a lot of insight out of them. And I think that will win the day at the end of the day.

• 2:38:39Jordi Hays?

  Last question from my side. How does the CFTC view when a market participant has some type of alpha or non-public information? And they're betting on a market, you know, based on that information. From my view, as somebody who like gets data from, you know, we work with Polymarket. We look at, we use Polymarket data on the show. If somebody has inside information and they're they're trading on that information, it actually makes the markets more accurate. So in some ways, as a user who's just like viewing markets, it's I want people that have inside information on global events to be trading so that the markets actually better reflect reality.

• 2:39:25Jordi Hays?

  But what is like the CFTC's view on that type of activity? Because like things get thrown around all the time, insider trading this or that. But I don't actually know like what the actual law says.

• 2:39:38Tarek Mansour?

  Yeah, that's a great, like, that's actually a great question. It's a point of debate in this land. But I think there's some distinction. So CASH is a regulated exchange. So everything we do, in some ways, a lot of the laws and the rules are very similar to what you would expect in a New York Stock Exchange and some of the traditional financial markets. The question of insider trading is interesting because what you just said could also apply to the stock market. Right? Like if you want to accurately price a stock, maybe we should let insider trading happen. And the reason why it's actually not allowed is because it makes the game unfair. It makes the market unfair. And if the market is unfair, liquidity dries out. People just stop participating.

• 2:40:17Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 2:40:17Tarek Mansour?

  Right? And that's why you have to have reasonable rules of the road where people can reasonably expect to be treated fairly in this marketplace, where there's no kind of asymmetric or structural advantage for one participant versus the other. And we take the similar approach here. So if you actually have insider information, which is information that like You're not supposed to reveal to the public. You're not supposed to trade on it because trading on it is a way to reveal it to the public.

• 2:40:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 2:40:44Tarek Mansour?

  And so that makes kind of a more balanced, more fair marketplace. And I think we're very focused on that. But it's a very interesting question. It's one the industry is battling with, but we take a hard stance on insider trading.

• 2:40:55Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, because if somebody goes and they go and they vote in a local election and they see like, okay, I talked to somebody there and they said they were voting this way. And I talked to another person, they also said they were voting this way. And then somebody trades on that information like, is it actually like, is that, you know, how do you define that type of activity, right? It's like anybody could go down to the polling, you know, anyone could go down to the polls and kind of like, or voting center and just see like, ask the same question, right? So anyways.

• 2:41:33Tarek Mansour?

  Well, I was gonna say it's the same as the stock market, right? If you go and send in photos of Walmart and count everybody that's going in and out and then, you know, during the day and forecast their sales from that, that's actually fair game. Now, if you call your cousin at Walmart and ask them for information they have internally that they're not supposed to reveal to the public, that's insider trading. And I think we have a very similar line here.

• 2:41:50Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, that makes sense. Very cool, well, super helpful. And yeah, congrats to the whole team. It's a pretty massive milestone.

• 2:42:00John Coogan?

  Huge.

• 2:42:01Jordi Hays?

  And yeah, great, great getting the update.

• 2:42:04John Coogan?

  Thanks so much for taking the time to hop on.

• 2:42:05Tarek Mansour?

  Thanks for having me.

• 2:42:06John Coogan?

  We will talk to you soon.

• 2:42:07Jordi Hays?

  Talk soon.

• 2:42:07John Coogan?

  Have a good one. Adquick.com, out of home advertising made easy and measurable. Plan, buy and measure out of home with precision. Our next guest is Matt Mullenweg from Automatic. He is in the restream waiting room. Let's bring him in.

• 2:42:23Jordi Hays?

  They are.

• 2:42:23Speaker 09

  Set up.

• 2:42:24John Coogan?

  Parent company of WordPress.com, Tumblr. Welcome to the show, Matt. How are you doing? I think we have you on a hot mic. We might have you on a hot mic, hopefully not. Welcome to the show.

• 2:42:38Speaker 09

  About to come on the screen?

• 2:42:39John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 2:42:39Speaker 09

  All right, well, a little drum roll. You're all about to experience TVPN for the first time.

• 2:42:44Jordi Hays?

  So Matt, our audience is live.

• 2:42:47John Coogan?

  We're streaming on them, they're streaming on us. How are you doing? We'll clap too, fantastic. How are you doing? Good to meet you.

• 2:42:57Speaker 09

  Thank you so much for, I know this is a little non-traditional.

• 2:42:59John Coogan?

  It is.

• 2:43:00Speaker 09

  We're kind of like two hours into like our big annual address, the State of the Word. It's kind of like our State of the Union speech. And, but thank you so much for allowing us to connect them. I'm kind of imagine, a lot of folks in the room have never heard or seen TV PM before. So this will bring a lot of new folks into your world and I'm excited for some of your world to learn about WordPress.

• 2:43:18John Coogan?

  Yeah, give me the State of the Word. And then also I want your, your personal word of the year. We've been debating what the word of the year should be over here.

• 2:43:27Speaker 09

  Ooh.

• 2:43:29Speaker 09

  So State of the Word, and I'll say the State of the Word is strong.

• 2:43:32John Coogan?

  Okay. That's good, let's hit the gong.

• 2:43:34Speaker 09

  We're hitting the gong for that one.

• 2:43:39John Coogan?

  A strong State of the Word.

• 2:43:45Speaker 09

  We actually just did a live release of WordPress 6.9. So WordPress does major releases three times per year. We were able to do it right here on stage. We had a little button that we pushed. We gotta get it going next time.

• 2:43:55John Coogan?

  I love it.

• 2:43:56Speaker 09

  That was, that was pretty fun. Don't worry, I didn't just ship it again.

• 2:44:01Speaker 09

  But, you know, one of the things about WordPress is, is it's a, it's not just built by one company, but it's a community of, WordPress 6.9, over 900 contributors from all over the world. Different countries, different languages, different companies, all coming together. And so that was pretty exciting. My word of the year, and actually a theme we were just talking about, is I'm going to choose freedom.

• 2:44:22John Coogan?

  Freedom.

• 2:44:23Speaker 09

  Powerful. As technology like starts to influence more and more of our lives, you know, how we travel, who we date, the things we learn, the news we're exposed to, you know, the sort of freedoms that are embedded in an open source license. I like to refer to open source licenses sort of like a bill of rights for software. Gives you inalienable rights that no company or person can take away from you. And that freedom and agency, I think, is really, really important and something that I think, you know, as technologists or builders, that we should try to embed into everything that we do.

• 2:44:52John Coogan?

  Give us an update on Beeper. I was super fascinating, I was super fascinated by that product. I love, I love walled gardens. I also love tearing down the walls of gardens. It seems like a, a good shot across the bow of the, the iMessage walled garden. How's the progress going there? Are you using the service personally daily? Are we going to see a lot of growth there?

• 2:45:18Speaker 09

  Well, obviously, I'm using it daily. So I would think of it not as like replacing a wall garden, but more like allowing your gardens to come together. So I'm sure you like me, I have friends on lots of different networks. And some of them always love to use WhatsApp and some of them always love to use, you know, Instagram or LinkedIn DMs sometimes. I even get some interesting stuff there.

• 2:45:41Speaker 09

  And I hate it when I miss these messages, you know, because, you know, checking all the different apps sometimes or in the notifications, I might miss something. So think of it not unlike how email clients, you know, can bring in lots of different email accounts. Beeper takes all the different networks where your friends already are and maps them together. Now, the plus and minus is that you're, it's not going to replace the networks. Like I still keep all the different sort of specialized messaging apps. Because like, for example, if someone sends you an Instagram story, when you click on that, you're going to want to load Instagram, for example. So I think of it as complimentary and hopefully even increasing the usage in a very small way right now. It's, it's pretty nascent. But in the future, think of it as like sort of a different interface. So you might still have like the dedicated apps, but then having this all in one inbox that you can sort of manage everything,

• 2:46:27Speaker 09

  tag people, have folders and at this cool features like scheduled messaging across all platforms. Or even just like weird heuristics that are pretty simple to do, but like, show me all the, not, don't just show me unread, but show me all the people I've messaged that haven't messaged me back yet.

• 2:46:41John Coogan?

  Oh yeah, sure, sure. We, we've talked to some young hackers, some startups who are building, you know, sort of Beeper competitors and their whole value prop is like, we figured out a way to get it into the iMessage ecosystem. Do you think that we need a new regulation there or some sort of law change or some result to actually open up iMessage? Or do you think that with enough tricky hacking, it can be done?

• 2:47:10Speaker 09

  Well, technically, it's not hard. Well, it is hard. It's hard, but it's... It's very possible to reverse engineer these networks. Yeah. However, as we saw with sort of a previous iteration of Beeper, if the network really, really doesn't want you to do that, it's probably not good to pick a fight with a trillion-dollar company. Yeah. So perhaps these things might happen through open source or something, but as a commercial company, I think ultimately you have to be somewhat respectful and try to complement these networks. Mm-hmm. So how Beeper works today is we don't support iMessage on the mobile or Android.

• 2:47:47Speaker 09

  In theory, we could, but Apple has indicated that's something they don't want. We do support on the macOS client. We have a way to integrate with sort of iMessage using some APIs that are available on macOS. And so on macOS, we can bring in your iMessage. Got it. But again, I'm building this for the long term. Yeah. And we are a commercial company as well. Sure. So, you know, we want to work with the networks. And, you know, perhaps there can be regulations like the European DMA or things that can encourage interoperability. But ultimately, I think that the, the sort of people who run these networks have to see a longer-term benefit for them. And for things like, you know, some of the other networks I mentioned that Beeper works with,

• 2:48:31Speaker 09

  I think their business model and everything, the increased usage is really useful for them. I think for today, Apple's business model, particularly in the US, kind of the lock-in effect to their device business, which is of course where they make a lot of money from iMessage, probably indicates that unless forced to, I doubt they will adopt sort of iMessage interoperability. But who knows? Sort of like they used Lightning for a while and eventually got USB-C and all of our lives got better. Who knows what will happen in the future?

• 2:49:02Jordi Hays?

  Talk about links on the internet. I feel like we're at a point in time where social media platforms are trying to keep users in, in their own applications so that they can monetize them to the fullest extent. Meanwhile, you have LLMs, which are ultimately doing a lot of the same thing. They're taking content from all over the internet, trying to keep users in the individual applications. It feels like WordPress in, in many ways is... Making moves to kind of like almost fight back against that. I might have that incorrect, but I feel like it's important. If you're running a business independently online, it's great to have people like on your own website so you can develop a deep relationship with them.

• 2:49:47Jordi Hays?

  But what is your view on that? We're very much anchored around X as a business. Obviously, X has had issues with links or, you know, chosen to demote them in the algorithm over the last couple of years. But give us kind of the state of the union on links.

• 2:50:04Speaker 09

  That's a broad one. Well, I will say X is actually a great example. And I've talked to Nikita about this. So they now, they've shifted some of the balancing of links and they now have this really nice in sort of app browser. So you've probably noticed that now that when you load a link, you actually still have the ability to like like and reblog and everything. And I think that's kind of the future. So I do think that there, you can have things that are complementary because so much of the like great content and everything is more on this open web. It doesn't have to be like fully embedded in the app. But that is sort of a technological change. So I would say actually point to X as someplace where I think things are going in the right direction. Although I do agree that sort of time when links got really de-boosted and everyone had to do it as like a reply was kind of weird and sucked.

• 2:50:49Speaker 09

  So for WordPress publishers, you know, we support so many different types of websites and different types of websites, I think, might have different motivations. So for example, a popular plugin for WordPress is called Woocommerce. It's an ecommerce plugin. It actually runs on about 8.9% of all websites in the world are now running this ecommerce plugin. You can think of it like an open source Shopify. And when you, if you're selling something to merchants, you don't, you just want to sell the product. You don't, might not necessarily care that someone comes to your website to buy it. So some of the new things that are happening with, in partnership with OpenAI and others where we're allowing products to actually be like browsed and bought inside of the LLM are pretty exciting. I also think that the incentives of these open source chatbots in particular are very

• 2:51:34Speaker 09

  complimentary to the open web. So. For example, like if you're on Amazon, Amazon really wants you to stay, or eBay, or Etsy, or something like that, they want you to stay in their marketplace on their system. But when you think of how Google works, and sort of the growth of Google in the open web, you know, they have their search pages, but they also would link out. And that was a whole part of their business model and how they grew. We're seeing that with the chatbots as well. And in fact, something I talked about a little bit earlier is that the traffic from bots, both from them crawling, but also user-initiated actions, is exploding and has already surpassed sort of human traffic. And it'll be interesting to see where that goes in the future. So, you know, there's never a better time, I think, to invest in having a domain, but also invest in publishing.

• 2:52:17Speaker 09

  And, you know, just like you might have a direct relationship, like for example, I suppose I could get like a chat GPT to summarize today's TVPN episode, but it's more exciting to watch it. I think that creators developing a direct relationship from brand is going to be part of the future as well.

• 2:52:32Jordi Hays?

  Very, very cool. Well, there's so many more things that I want to ask, but I know you're in the midst of your own presentation. So, thank you for tuning in. Come back on soon and thank you for having us. The view is spectacular as well.

• 2:52:47Speaker 09

  It's a pleasure for me. I love to come down and hang out when I'm in L.A. next. So, thank you so much.

• 2:52:53John Coogan?

  That'd be fantastic. Thanks so much. We'll talk to you soon.

• 2:52:56Jordi Hays?

  Great chatting.

• 2:52:57John Coogan?

  Have a good rest of your day.

• 2:52:58Jordi Hays?

  See ya.

• 2:52:59John Coogan?

  Acesleep.com. Exceptional sleep without exception. Fall asleep faster, sleep deeper, wake up energized. That's our sponsor.

• 2:53:06Jordi Hays?

  Ninety-four last night, John. I think I smoked you again. Lost your phone. Well, we have Jason Freed in the restroom waiting. Let's bring him in. There he is.

• 2:53:17John Coogan?

  Jason, how are you doing? Good to see you.

• 2:53:19Jason Fried?

  Good, and you?

• 2:53:20John Coogan?

  Congratulations. Massive news today. Break it down for us. What's up?

• 2:53:25Jason Fried?

  Was there big news today? I missed the news. What was the news?

• 2:53:28John Coogan?

  You're just calling out everybody.

• 2:53:29Jordi Hays?

  You are the news.

• 2:53:30John Coogan?

  Trello, naming names. He's naming names. A lot of people don't do that. A lot of people say, oh, the competitors, the best-in-class solutions, the Gartner hype cycle. No, you called them out. You put them on the map.

• 2:53:40Jason Fried?

  We had some fun, yes. We launched a new product today called Fizzy, which is kind of a fresh take on Kanban, an old idea, obviously been around for a long time. But we, you know, we have a different spin on things, different take on things, and felt like it was time to do something new and kind of bring it back to the basics and also add some fun and color and vibrancy, which is missing in the software industry. I feel like... People might be colorful in a sense, but the products are very much the same. And so we wanted to do something different and that was, uh, that was what we did today.

• 2:54:08John Coogan?

  Why new name? Why not, uh, you know, a new, new tab in an existing product?

• 2:54:14Jason Fried?

  Right. Well, Basecamp, which is our biggest product, has a Kanban in it. We call it card table there. But you know, the thing is, is that, um, Basecamp is very popular, but it's, you know, let's say there's a hundred thousand accounts, right? A hundred thousand companies use it. It's a small number in the end. And, um, there's a lot of people who can use something like Fizzy that are not going to use Basecamp. Basecamp is a much bigger system. It's for bigger projects and there's a lot of small things that people need to do and organize and track. And so building a small standalone thing just feels like it makes more sense, frankly, for, for this kind of thing.

• 2:54:48John Coogan?

  So do you, I mean, do you have an idea of like, who is the target market? Startups, individuals, like, like you use this to plan your Thanksgiving dinner?

• 2:54:57Jason Fried?

  Yeah. I mean, the target market is me and us. Basically, we build things for ourselves. I don't think about who we're making things for because we're making things for us always. And, um, the idea is that, you know, oh, actually, let me just say this. I, I find the best products in the world are made by the person who's making them for themselves. That's been my experience, like enthusiast products. And then other people find them and other people discover them and you find out that you're like other people and other people are like you and they kind of dig it, you know? And so we're always thinking about ourselves.

• 2:55:28Jordi Hays?

  I said to someone this morning that, that, uh, I feel like TVPN is that way where sometimes when I'm driving home, I want to wa- I wanna, I wanna watch TVPN, but I'm like, we just, we just made it. I just lived it. I should probably, you know, watch something else. So I, I never, I never watch, watch the show myself.

• 2:55:44John Coogan?

  Sometimes they just call me and say, hey, we haven't done enough podcasts.

• 2:55:46Jordi Hays?

  We do a podcast on the fly.

• 2:55:48John Coogan?

  And we just talk about tech news more. I'd love to, I'd love to know about, uh, the actual process for building the product. Who, who was staffed on the team? How many people? What time period? When did you start? Do you have a designer, developer? Is it all just, what's the prompt? I imagine you just use one prompt for this?

• 2:56:08Jason Fried?

  One prompt was all it was.

• 2:56:10Jordi Hays?

  All you needed.

• 2:56:11Jason Fried?

  Yeah, so you know, what's interesting is we actually also open source this. So this is fully open source. It's a SaaS product and fully open source. So you can run it yourself for free, which means you can go into GitHub, actually, and look back at the very first commit about 18 months ago and see everything we did along the way, all the changes we made, all the dead ends, all the starts and stops, exactly who was involved in our team over time. And it's changed. So we had typically, we have two designers, one or two designers on something. Then there's other people who chime in here and there, who jump in here and there, different programmers jump in at different times, but it's fully documented, which is very rare. You'll almost never, ever see this in commercial soft, basically almost never, sometimes, but almost never, especially going back to day one.

• 2:56:56Jason Fried?

  What ends up happening is you can do this thing where you can basically on launch day, you can clear the log, basically, and then from that point on, people can see what you're doing. But we opened it up from day one about 18 months ago. So it's actually all in there. The team size in total, probably about six people worked on it here and there over 18 months, but for the most part, it's usually two or three people working on something at a time.

• 2:57:20John Coogan?

  How do you think about pricing these?

• 2:57:21Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I feel like as in 37 signals fashion, pricing will be opinionated. So I'm excited to hear how you guys approach this one.

• 2:57:32Jason Fried?

  You know, we don't really, well, we have a price, but I don't know if it's the right price, never do. It's 20 bucks a month, unlimited users, unlimited usage, one price, no chart, no table, no contact us, just a price tag. Like if you went and bought a pair of jeans or peanut butter, it'd be like, how much is it?

• 2:57:50Jordi Hays?

  Talk to the sales rep, they're gonna look you up and down, they're gonna say, well, how much, how much should this person pay?

• 2:57:55Jason Fried?

  Right, what watch are you wearing? All the things, right? So it's 20 bucks, but we give you 1,000 cards for free. So there's no time limit on the trial, you get 1,000 cards for free. And if you never use, a card is like a, you know, like a to do item or something. If you never use them up, it's free forever. And you can also run it for free if you want to run it yourself.

• 2:58:13John Coogan?

  It's open source. Yeah.

• 2:58:14Jason Fried?

  Yeah. So we're basically just serving as a host. If you want to just turn it on, sign up and be going, we'll host it for 20 bucks currently. Look, this is an introductory price. We could change the price six months from now. If we do, we'll let people lock in where they were. We're not going to change prices on them, but we might raise it. I don't even know what we'll do, but we wanted to pick a number that was fair. The other thing I want to do is I want to price this more like an accessory. This is not the only tool. The software industry is interesting because it thinks that whatever it makes, it's the only thing anyone ever needs, right? The thing is, is people need a lot of different things. And so Fizzy's not going to be the only thing you have. It might be one of the many things you might use. And so we kind of price it that way. It's like an accessory, 20 bucks a month, kind of a no brainer, unlimited users,

• 2:58:58Jason Fried?

  cancel any time, no upfront anything, and it just feels like that's the right place to start. We'll see where we end up, but that feels good for now.

• 2:59:05John Coogan?

  If you, if I pay you to host it, where is it hosted?

• 2:59:10Jason Fried?

  China.

• 2:59:14Jason Fried?

  No, so it's hosted. We have, we have, we have a few different data centers, so it's not, well, it's in, it's in our.

• 2:59:19John Coogan?

  Yeah. What I'm getting at is like, it's like, it would be easy to just throw this on AWS, but like you're the one company that doesn't just do that, right?

• 2:59:26Jason Fried?

  That's right. So we have a data center in, in Chicago. We have one in, in Amsterdam. We have one in North Carolina. So we have in a few different spots. And it's all on our hardware and other people's data centers. We rent space and data centers. That said, again, you can also, if you just don't trust us, don't want us to do it, you can put on your own stuff, including like a simple droplet, like a digital ocean, something, whatever you can find that, that will host something basic will work for, for this as well.

• 2:59:55John Coogan?

  I mean, you actually can host it in Alibaba Cloud if you want. It's open source. That's the whole point of open source. I could put it on.

• 3:00:00Jason Fried?

  You could. I hope someone does.

• 3:00:01Jordi Hays?

  There's an AI company that recently had a code red. Have you ever had a code red? Ever? Once?

• 3:00:11Jason Fried?

  Not like that. Uh, not like a competitive pressure code red. Let's make sure we kind of focus on this competitor, but we've like screwed up and had have all hands on deck to fix something. I mean, there was a moment, I think.

• 3:00:23Jordi Hays?

  Did you learn? Did you ever learn the, the, like, did you ever get overly fixated on a competitor and sort of like learn that? Because, because there's, there's like, that's like Y C, like, uh, uh, just law, right? Like, don't overly focus on competitors. Like, you're probably not going to die as a company because of your competitor. You die because of, I think they say like indigestion or something like that.

• 3:00:47Jason Fried?

  Right. Most wounds are self inflicted.

• 3:00:50Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, exactly. But, but, but sometimes you have to, to actually have a, a lesson be fully ingrained. You have, you have to learn it the hard way. I'm curious if, if that was ever the case.

• 3:01:02Jason Fried?

  Um, I, I think there was one time when way back when, um, we used to have a product, we still have a new product now called Campfire, but way back in 2006, we launched Campfire, which is a real time chat, group chat.

• 3:01:13Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 3:01:13Jason Fried?

  And back then we could not shove this down people's throats. Like, nobody understood group chat for a business. It just was very, very hard to sell and to move and was a very small product for us. And then Slack came out and I saw it. I remember, oh shit, like, yeah, they nailed it. Like, we, we just, yeah.

• 3:01:31John Coogan?

  It was crazy because them nailing it was, it was IRC. Like, I used IRC back in the day. And the hashtag channels, like, everything, like, there were, all the primitives had been, like, battle tested in IRC.

• 3:01:41Jordi Hays?

  The other thing is Slack doesn't feel like that outside of the world in term for even from a, I'm sure you have opinions on Slack's like, design, but it, it, it doesn't even feel that. Like, you guys probably could see that and be like, oh, that, that's like, like, like the, the design was opinionated and, and, you know, fun.

• 3:01:59Jason Fried?

  It felt fun. Slack felt fun. Um, I mean, IRC, of course, was, is very geeky and whatever, but yeah, the fundamentals were there. But Slack had a wonderful onboarding experience. It felt fun. They had great integrations. They just kind of like, totally leapfrogged us in that world. And, and that was like, fine, but it, it did. It was the first time I felt like I felt that sort of nervousness in my stomach. Now, I didn't feel it against our business because Basecamp is a very different kind of product and it was fine, but it was Campfire specifically because I was frustrated. I was trying to figure out how to make it better. And then I saw them come out like, oh shit, like, yeah, that, that, that's how you do it. So that was one time, but, but. I just don't think there's any reason to focus on competitors. I just don't, you can't

• 3:02:43Jason Fried?

  control them. You don't know what they're gonna do. You don't know if they're gonna be around in three months or three years. You don't have the same economics as they do. Yeah. So it doesn't really make sense. Like, for example, I'll take Hey, our email service, hey.com. We have forty-some-odd thousand paying customers for Hey, right? Which is, if you were Gmail, it'd be an absolute abject failure to only have forty thousand paying customers. It would've been shut down, it would've been shut down years ago. In seconds, right? But for us, it's a multimillion-dollar business because we have sixty people here. So for us, it's a great business. So like, I can't go, well, Gmail's killing us. They're not killing us. They're doing their thing, we're doing our thing. So I think you've got to, in my opinion, the only person you actually compete with are your own economics. Like, it's not a person, but the only thing you compete with are your

• 3:03:28Jason Fried?

  own economics. Yeah. If you can make it work, if you can make it viable, you're fine. If your revenue more than your costs. Your costs. You compete with your costs. You're competing with your costs, yeah.

• 3:03:35John Coogan?

  Every business needs an AI note taker. What are your opinions on AI note takers? If they join the call, are you admitting them or are you letting them stay?

• 3:03:44Jordi Hays?

  I'm pretty harsh. I always let them sit out in the cold. I never let them in.

• 3:03:49Jason Fried?

  We don't, we don't have meetings. We don't, so I don't, I don't even, I couldn't even invite one in if I wanted to. We just, we don't, we don't do that. But I have, I will say, I have been in a few calls recently that other people have set up, and there's been like an AI transcript, and it has been quite handy. It's really pretty impressive when it works really well. Strangely, Apple can't seem to get voicemail transcriptions to work at all. Have you seen?

• 3:04:11John Coogan?

  I mean, Apple is just struggling with all the, all the basics on transcription, even just talking to your phone and like Whisper works. It works in the ChatGPT app, it works everywhere else. Apple just has not implemented it properly. And it's, and it's not, it's not crazy AI God. Like, it's literally just, take the words that I'm saying and write them down verbatim. And that is a huge, and that's a huge benefit because if you're in a business call, sometimes I just want to search the actual transcript. I don't even need you to summarize it or put action items or go do things for me. Not agent, none of that. Just actually write down exactly what I said so that when I say, you know, Uh, you know, we had, you know, when I say AWS or whatever, I can go search for when that happened in the transfer and a lot of, a lot of companies just haven't been able to implement that. It's been weird.

• 3:04:56Jason Fried?

  I agree. I think, I think frankly, that is one of the best use cases of, I mean, it's not even AI though. It's just, it's trans, great transcription software is, is very, very handy. And I think like, this is the thing, like it's, it's transcription software has been around for a long time. It's gotten better and better and better, but it's not like AI really, you know?

• 3:05:13John Coogan?

  I mean, in other ways, it has been AI for 20 years. It's been the original AI in many ways, you know?

• 3:05:19Jason Fried?

  Maybe that's true too.

• 3:05:20John Coogan?

  Throw a bunch of data at it and, and try and estimate what things are, even like OCR, these similar things, they're just per, they're not AGI. They're AI in the sense they're narrow. It's, it's the recommendation algorithm on YouTube or Tik Tok or in Netflix or, you know, this specific, you upload a, you take a picture of a receipt. Does it understand the text in there? Even if it's kind of a dark photo? Yes. That's specific, narrow AI. And that's great, but we need to actually get those things working on our phones.

• 3:05:48Jason Fried?

  I agree. I agree. Yeah. We left AI out of Fizzy, by the way. We made a conscious effort. We actually had some in for a while and pulled it out and had it back in and pulled it out.

• 3:05:56John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 3:05:57Jason Fried?

  I'm just like, I want to remove stupid from this. I, I don't want to add intelligence. I'm going to remove stupid from the software. So it's just so straightforward that it just works and you don't even feel like, God, I wish I had AI for this or for that.

• 3:06:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 3:06:09Jason Fried?

  So V1, no AI. We'll see what happens down the road. Again, it's open source.

• 3:06:12John Coogan?

  So, so the really interesting thing with, with Fizzy is that there is a world where you can just actually sit back and do nothing on AI. And if AI is real and valuable to your users, they will get it stuffed down their throats via their OS, via their browser, because Atlas is going to be trying to jump up, perplexity comet is going to be trying puppeteering their, their Fizzy. Uh, and, and the rest of the, the rest of the system that they're using, whether it's their phone or their laptop or their desktop, like it's going to bring the AI to bear with computer use. And so you might never have to build it.

• 3:06:45Jason Fried?

  Yeah, I think so. In fact, this is actually interesting, really quick, um, Recently, OpenAI added a basecamp connector to ChatGPT and we didn't, we didn't even do anything. So they did all the work.

• 3:06:56John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 3:06:57Jason Fried?

  And they just sent us an email saying, hey, we're launching this basecamp connector like in a few weeks. Like, great. I'm like, this is fantastic. We don't have an MCP server. They just did it. And so I just think more, to your point, I think more and more of that's going to happen, which is it's going to be available in the OS or someone else is going to do it or whatever. And to, to spend all this time to build it into the product specifically, I just don't feel like it's the right, the best use of initial, an initial V1 should be focused on the product itself and not the other things that it could possibly do. Again, later on, maybe there's stuff that comes in, maybe people via the open source version submit some PRs that have some AI stuff. We'll see where it goes, but we didn't need it for V1.

• 3:07:34John Coogan?

  Yeah. There's just always a question of where the AI lives. Like, do you need to go and pre-train your own model to answer questions? Or if you set up a good knowledge base, will you just get sucked into the next pre-train automatically? And you can just go to ChatGPT and ask about you and you'll be there. Anyway, Jordan.

• 3:07:50Jordi Hays?

  I want to, I want to keep hanging out for an hour, but we, we do, we do have to wrap the show because we're going to look at a, at a studio.

• 3:07:57John Coogan?

  We have one last question for David Senna.

• 3:07:58Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. One last question from our mutual friend, David Senna. Can we get it? Could we get a wrist check?

• 3:08:02John Coogan?

  What watch?

• 3:08:03Jordi Hays?

  What are you rocking on launch day?

• 3:08:05Jason Fried?

  I might be the only person who coordinates their watch with their software. It's, it's possible. So I'm wearing today, I'm just wearing a, um, I'll take it off because I don't know how to quite hold it up otherwise.

• 3:08:16Jason Fried?

  This is a, just a vintage Hoyer from 1974, which is birth, a birth year watch. Let's see, hang on.

• 3:08:22Jordi Hays?

  Whoa.

• 3:08:23John Coogan?

  Oh, birth year watch.

• 3:08:24Jason Fried?

  Hang on, hang on, hang on.

• 3:08:25Jordi Hays?

  I love the, yeah.

• 3:08:26Jason Fried?

  Hang on, let me see.

• 3:08:26Jordi Hays?

  The focus is hard, but. There you go. There you go. There you go.

• 3:08:31Jason Fried?

  There we go.

• 3:08:31Jordi Hays?

  I love the, I love the orange.

• 3:08:33Jason Fried?

  So it's colorful. Fizzy is colorful. Fizzy's full of color. It's the most colorful watch I own for the most colorful product we've ever made.

• 3:08:42Jordi Hays?

  I knew, I knew, I literally said, I knew you were going to match. I knew, I knew it was going to be intentional.

• 3:08:47John Coogan?

  This is so good.

• 3:08:48Jason Fried?

  It's a little sad, a little bit. It's a little bit sad, but it's fun.

• 3:08:52John Coogan?

  It's joy. This is joy.

• 3:08:53Jason Fried?

  It's joy.

• 3:08:54John Coogan?

  This is amazing.

• 3:08:55Jason Fried?

  I didn't, I don't have like a, what, like a green, what, why were you guys wearing a green jacket a few days ago? What was that about?

• 3:08:59John Coogan?

  It was Shopify. Black Friday, we did, we were celebrating commerce online. And so we wore

• 3:09:05Jason Fried?

  Oh, just green for money?

• 3:09:06John Coogan?

  Solid green suit.

• 3:09:06Jordi Hays?

  No, it's the Shopify color.

• 3:09:08John Coogan?

  Signature color is green.

• 3:09:09Jason Fried?

  Oh, shop. I didn't even know that.

• 3:09:11John Coogan?

  Yeah, Shopify is green. Yeah.

• 3:09:12Jason Fried?

  Yeah, okay.

• 3:09:13John Coogan?

  It is a little confusing because we use a dark green in our brand theme. And so it actually paired up pretty nicely. We also have yellow suits for when we, for when there's big ramp news, we will wear solid yellow suits. Yeah, you've probably seen those. Those are fun.

• 3:09:26Jason Fried?

  I've seen that.

• 3:09:27Jordi Hays?

  Hard to, hard to miss. Well, Jason, open invite to the studio. We'd love to hang out for like a full hour.

• 3:09:35John Coogan?

  Everybody's loving it. Everyone's having a great time.

• 3:09:37Jason Fried?

  Let's do it sometime. I'd love to. I think I got an email about, about that. So we'll figure that out.

• 3:09:40John Coogan?

  Amazing.

• 3:09:41Jason Fried?

  Appreciate it.

• 3:09:41Jordi Hays?

  All right. Congrats to the whole team on the launch. Very exciting.

• 3:09:44Jason Fried?

  Thank you. See ya.

• 3:09:45Jordi Hays?

  Bye.

• 3:09:46John Coogan?

  getbezel.com. Shop over 26,500 luxury watches that you're not going to, you're not going to believe it, but this was actually the next ad read up. Fully authenticated in-house by Bezel's team of experts. And we got to close out the show. So I'm going to tell you about Wander.com. Book a wander with inspiring views, hotel great amenities, dream beds, top tier cleaning, 24/7 concierge service. There are so many more posts that I want to get to. There's a lot.

• 3:10:09Jordi Hays?

  We'll get to them.

• 3:10:10John Coogan?

  There's a new Arena Mag out. You got to go to Arena Mag, check it out. We are featured in this Arena Mag issue 006. The Three Martini Lunch. We had Julia on the show, of course, to talk about it. But now it's, it's in print. There's a lot else going on.

• 3:10:24Jordi Hays?

  And we will be back tomorrow.

• 3:10:26John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 3:10:26Jordi Hays?

  Sorry to cut it off.

• 3:10:27John Coogan?

  Thank goodness.

• 3:10:27Jordi Hays?

  We're having a lot of fun.

• 3:10:28John Coogan?

  I would be in a very bad place if we weren't podcasting tomorrow, but fortunately we are. So we'll see you tomorrow. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Goodbye.

• 3:10:37Jordi Hays?

  Have a great evening.