Google’s Crazy AI Overviews, OpenAI’s Superalignment Drama, NVIDIA’s Unstoppable Run

Ranjan Roy from Margins is back for our weekly discussion of the latest tech news. We cover 1) Google's AI Overviews tell us to eat rocks 2) Is this a signal the web really is done? 3) Google's history of messy AI launches 4) OpenAI's super-alignment team in chaos 5) Is there immediate AI safety risk or did the team leave because there isn't? 6) OpenAI's NDA practices 7) Did OpenAI take Scarlett Johansson's voice? 8) Is there a line for the tech industry taking intellectual property? 9) NVIDIA's wild earnings report 10) Is this the end of the NVIDIA run? 11) When are we going to see an ROI on AI spending? --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. For weekly updates on the show, sign up for the pod newsletter on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/6901970121829801984/ Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack? Here’s 40% off for the first year: https://tinyurl.com/bigtechnology Questions? Feedback? Write to: [email protected] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Alex Kantrowitz?

  Google's AI overviews are crazy. OpenAI's super alignment team falls apart and has to sign wild NDAs. And now the company is fighting with Scarlett Johansson? And yes, Nvidia remains unstoppable. How long does that go on? All that and more coming up right after this. This episode is brought to you by Genesis. What does it actually take to put a Gentic AI to work across an entire enterprise? I recently spoke with Genesis chairman and CEO Tony Bates about why orchestration is emerging as a competitive advantage in customer experience and what companies need to get right in the AI era. Then I sat down with Adam Mitchell, head of enterprise business solutions at Voya Financial,

• 0:41Alex Kantrowitz?

  to go inside a large-scale Agentic CX transformation, including the business decisions, trade-offs, and lessons along the way. You can watch both conversations now on my YouTube channel today. It's never been more challenging to get frontier compute. How do you know where to look, who to trust, or how much to pay? Akash is an open cloud that provides easy access, flexibility, and peace of mind. That's how companies like Razer were able to cut their inference cost by 15 times. Visit akash.network/alex for a free consultation. That's akash.network/alex for a free consultation.

• 1:21Alex Kantrowitz?

  Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday Edition, where we break down the news in our traditional cool-headed and nuanced format. It's a holiday weekend here in the US, but that's not going to stop us. We have so much news to cover. It feels like this week is kind of an even more eventful week than usual. We have Google's AI search errors coming out with this AI overview situation. We have the big drama at OpenAI, what's new? We have Nvidia turning in major results. Microsoft has this AI PC. It continues. So it's going to be a fun. I think we're going to have some laughs this week because some crazy stuff happened. But let me introduce Ranjan Roy, and we can get the show on the road. Ranjan, welcome to the show.

• 2:04Speaker 01

  I think this will be a fun one, especially starting with these Google AI generative searches.

• 2:10Alex Kantrowitz?

  One week ago, I was promised that the web was finished. One week ago, I was promised that Google had just destroyed the web with its AI overviews, that a generative search would prevent anybody from clicking through to a story ever again. Let me give the scorecard of how things look right now. If you ask Google how many rocks you should eat, Google will tell you you should eat one small rock a day. If you ask Google, why is my cheese not sticking to my pizza? It will tell you, you can add about one eighth of a cup of non-toxic glue to the sauce to give it more tackiness. If you ask Google, is everything you see on the internet real? Google will tell you, yes, everything on the internet is 100% real.

• 2:51Alex Kantrowitz?

  And then, and listeners, I can report that at least one blogger, Katie Natopolis from Business Insider, has made and eaten the glue pizza. Ranjha, what do you think about this? Is this, is this a sign that these large hot takes were overblown? Or should we actually interpret it to mean that maybe a rock a day is actually healthy? For you, and glue pizza isn't that bad?

• 3:14Speaker 01

  I knew you would start with this because this does run in the face of a lot of what I've said recently. So I'm gonna try to defend myself here. And, and for regular listeners, you may remember, I have agreed with a Gartner claim that I think it was like 26% of all search will be synthetic or generative in the next couple of years. I've said Reddit is the greatest training data set in the world. And the source of a couple of these posts, especially the glue on pizza, was apparently a kind of shitpost from Reddit from 11 years ago that somehow made it into, made into these generative search results. So, so for me, the way I'm looking at this is...

• 3:58Speaker 01

  This is definitely going to be disruptive in the near term for generative search and it's a reminder that this is a major transition for Google because the thing that always allowed them basically plausible deniability from the actual information they're presenting is they sent you elsewhere. They didn't present the information other than in snippets, which they'd been introducing more and more as their own. And now this is Google's essentially publishing when they give you an answer. So they are going to be responsible for it. And there's been a lot of shitposting on the internet over the years that can be misconstrued. There's even a couple of people had examples where it was from the Onion or other satirical information

• 4:41Speaker 01

  that's on the internet that clearly the model had not been trained properly to handle. But I don't think this is actually going to change anything. I think this is going to be a little bit of a kerfuffle at the moment, but I actually, these are for the most part ridiculous queries that clearly people have been setting up for the screenshots and for the tweet, but I don't think this that changes anything in the in the medium term. I'm sticking by my generative search is the future.

• 5:13Alex Kantrowitz?

  Okay. And this is Google, Google's company line kind of echoes what you say, which they said that this is generally very uncommon queries and aren't representative of most people's experiences. However, it's sort of the whole kerfuffle brings into relief this big question, which is, is this something people actually need? And is this actually going to improve the search experience? Like, I get that these are uncommon queries, but I'm also just like, does Google actually, is it Google actually doing this because it believes that the experience is going to be better? Or is Google doing this because it feels like it needs to make a move on artificial intelligence, seeing the perplexities out there, seeing the Bing searches? And remember Bing hasn't been able to inch up

• 5:56Alex Kantrowitz?

  beyond 3.6% of the worldwide search market, even though it has these AI-generated responses. And I wonder if Google is doing something not because it believes it's right for the users. But because it believes it has to. And one piece of evidence I'm going to put, uh, put out here to sort of back up the point of maybe that's the case. Is even after this AI thing that Google AI overviews told people to eat rocks. Google's, uh, uh, stock went up on Friday more than the S and P 500. It's almost as if the market says, we don't really care if this product works, if it's monetizable, if it's good for users. As long as you're doing something AI, we're going to reward you.

• 6:38Speaker 01

  I think that Google does realize that search is different. It's going to be different. And again, these kind of queries and basically hacking the system like this is, is at the moment kind of hilarious. Again, how many rocks should I eat? One small rock per day. Uh, is the recommended.

• 6:55Alex Kantrowitz?

  They're not eating two. It's above the daily recommended value.

• 6:56Speaker 01

  No, no, no. Two gets a little bit ridiculous because that's just, that's just over indulgence. But no, I, I, I think I still, this is going to be really interesting because how Google kind of pushes ahead, I don't think it's just to get a little bit of AI driven stock, uh, you know, stock pumping in the near term. I think they recognize that search is going to be transformed again. Perplexity is just so much better than Google searches right now. Even you asking chat GPT for any kind of evergreen information. Chat GPT is better. Perplexity is far better. That Google is going to have to do something because when you have a monopolized business model like they do with search.

• 7:40Speaker 01

  And it's going to, they, it's threatened like this. You have to do something. And they should be able to still be the leader in this because they still have the best data set in the world. So I think, I, I think they're going to still keep pushing ahead and I think that they should.

• 7:58Alex Kantrowitz?

  Can we at least admit that the web is still safe for a next little bit? Or do you think the web is toast?

• 8:04Speaker 01

  No, no, this is my, the more I've been thinking about this, because a lot of people I really respect and like the way they think are the one, are, you know, the web is going to die. This is the end of the web as we know it. I still have argued that the web has already been dead for a while. The web is that we kind of like, the web that we are nostalgic for of the late 2000s and like finding information and having like discovery and magical rabbit holes on and going webpage to webpage has been long dead. I think things have been walled off on different platforms for a while. I think there's some, and I say this myself as essentially as a blogger and newsletter

• 8:48Speaker 01

  writer, and you as well, like, a lot of us are still doing it, but overall, the idea that there is this massive ecosystem that's magical, I think, has been long replaced by crappy SEO optimized websites and like even larger spammy publishers and all the above, that I think that that idea, it's any kind of generic evergreen information, I think should be synthetically generated. And there's still always going to be room for good, original information. And how it gets discovered is going to be different, but already it's been, you know, it's SEO and Google search is now in the way to find good, exciting information. Do you think the web's dead?

• 9:33Alex Kantrowitz?

  Do I think the web is already dead?

• 9:35Speaker 01

  Alive and thriving.

• 9:36Alex Kantrowitz?

  I think it's, I wouldn't say alive and thriving, but the web is the web and the web will be the web, basically be my answer to that. Let me ask you, the web is the web. Like, the web, the web has not been disintermediated. I mean, it has to some extent been disintermediated, but it's not gone and it's not going anywhere. Like, I do think that, because people who say the web is dead mean that what they mean is we're going to just live within platforms all the time. And this idea that we'll have independent websites and stuff like that is gone. And I just don't think that's the case.

• 10:06Speaker 01

  No, I think we will. I think they just will not be discovered via search. That's the difference. And they don't need to be the same way, you know, write a newsletter and publish it on Substack and have people within the Substack network or your newsletter subscribers shared across different platforms. Like, that's where already discovery happens, for the most part, for me and for us, I think. And then, and actual community building. But the idea that someone is searching for technology news on Google Search and is ever gonna find me or us, I think, has long been a dream.

• 10:46Alex Kantrowitz?

  Well, we do have, I mean, I did recently set up Big Technology for SEO and we do have some SEO results coming in. But typically, they just flood in for like, one story. Like, one is a story that I get a lot of visits from is like, does Nvidia have actual competitors? And I have a story about the competition coming for Nvidia. And actually, that does quite well on search. But I take your point, and I think this is important, and I'll agree with you here. If you're gonna set up a media business or a business on the internet right now, you aren't gonna like, live through the website. Like, the domain name isn't the most important thing. And for me, like, after coming from BuzzFeed, setting up Big Technology as a newsletter and as a podcast, which is effectively subscription media through subscription platforms,

• 11:28Alex Kantrowitz?

  right, the podcast catching apps and the email inbox, sort of, that goes around this whole filter of like, the search engines and the Facebooks to get you to links. So, I guess de facto, I'm kind of agreeing with you, if you think about the business I've set up.

• 11:47Speaker 01

  So the web is dead.

• 11:48Alex Kantrowitz?

  I don't know. How many times a day do you visit a website? Like, websites are still important. And I still have a website, even though I'm going through the podcast and the email.

• 11:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's true. I think the tech meme homepage is still a daily go to for me. I sometimes go to NewYorkTimes.com, I guess. Via platforms end up on websites, certainly. So yeah, I'll say, I guess the big question is, all information around generative AI search that I have wondered about and that I don't quite see a path for is, like, all information up to today has been covered or written about or exists on the internet. But if there is no economic incentive to create new information for anyone, then it does pose a question, when new things happen? And I'm going to put news as one of

• 12:40Speaker 01

  these things, but just like, a new discovery happens.

• 12:43Alex Kantrowitz?

  What about entertainment? Yeah, stand by for that later in the show.

• 12:47Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 12:48Alex Kantrowitz?

  A little foreshadowing.

• 12:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, basically, if things are synthetically generated and returned to users. But I also think it's about time, I think, a total, like, rethinking of economic incentives for digital content creation is, it's not the worst thing. It's just, will it all accrue only to OpenAI and Google and a couple of other tech giants? Or will there be completely new models that, to create it? That, that could be an exciting thing.

• 13:18Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, let me ask you one more question as we close out this segment about it. Why does Google botch every single one of these introductions? I mean, the Gemini thing was terrible. Their initial introduction of, like, Bard was bad. It cost them $100 billion off the stock. I mean, this one, I guess if you do it at scale, at the scale of Google Search, you'll get some rock-eating answers. But it seems like every possible what time that Google has an introduction, they mess it up in some novel and extremely embarrassing way, where it just doesn't happen with their competitors.

• 13:49Speaker 01

  This is what's so fascinating to me is like, we've all joked about Sundar and is he gonna have a job and with Google, are they lagging on this? What I think is impressive or fascinating is that they keep pushing ahead. I mean, after the Gemini image, like with the diverse Nazis, Bard itself, just the name alone, much less the outputs a year ago, they're still pushing through versus, and we're gonna get into this, OpenAI that seemed to every single launch and rollout was like beautifully orchestrated and the products themselves actually worked right on launch and everyone just marveled at them. And even the ones that were demos like Sora and

• 14:32Speaker 01

  video, everyone was just like, this is gonna change the future. We love this, Sam Altman, you're great. And Google meanwhile is just, just going strong. Leroy Jenkins. Left and right. Yeah, Leroy Jenkins.

• 14:46Speaker 01

  But they're going and they're going. And like, to me, this is such a fast-moving, unpredictable space that I do believe in is gonna fundamentally change technology, the entire industry. So I'm still gonna give them a bit of credit that they're still pushing forward. Because any one of these, you could imagine, any one of these mishaps in the past, like if you're a large giant corporation playing from a position of fear, these are the kind of things that could shut down projects and lay off divisions. And I mean, these are, these are bad. Like, these are, these are not great, but, but it shows that they're actually, they're not afraid right now and that they're gonna keep pushing on this. And I don't think it's just for any kind of short-term stock momentum. I think

• 15:29Speaker 01

  they really, and even, it was interesting to me that I am a believer in this technology. But also, listening to Aaron Levy at the live podcast, and then you'd published the episode on Wednesday, like, it's sometimes even fascinating to me that I'm bullish and a believer. But when I see like, people who, like him, who've running a multi-billion dollar company and have been in Silicon Valley for, since the early days of the, like, the mid 2000s of Web 2.0, like, the look in their eyes in terms of how transformative this is, it almost makes me like, Am I missing something myself? Am I?

• 16:09Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right.

• 16:09Speaker 01

  Because I'm already bullish. I think this is going to be really interesting and change business models and but like they're like this is really going to change everything. So clearly the Kool-Aid is strong among the Silicon Valley folks.

• 16:22Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, let me just sum up what your position here is. Google's good, so is failure. The haters be damned. And the journalists are making a mountain out of a molehill here. I mean, I think that like some of the coverage has been just totally laughable. Like the Times, the headline on this story was Google AI search errors cause a furor online. It's like where people actually furious are they kind of laughing? And the headline is the company's latest AI search feature has erroneously told users users to eat glue and rocks, provoking a backlash.

• 16:55Alex Kantrowitz?

  Someone like tweeted that subhead and said, it's not erroneous if you're brave enough to eat the rocks.

• 17:00Speaker 01

  Exactly. And it's only one, only one rock, one small rock.

• 17:04Alex Kantrowitz?

  A day though. That adds up.

• 17:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, a day. Come on. That's a, it's just a pebble. I, uh, one thing, one thing that was interesting for me is I, I have been a big proponent. We've debated this, that I still think Reddit is the most valuable data set on the internet. It is funny to me. And this I will recognize this reminded me that like there's entire subreddits, there's one circle jerk NYC where people, the whole thing is just shitposting. Like, like entire threads of totally sarcastic commentary of people just, I mean, it's hilarious. And you recognize it as satire. That's why you subscribe to it. That's why you read it. But how large language models are going to try to process that?

• 17:47Speaker 01

  This was a reminder to me that, that, uh, yeah, it's, it's, it's still going to be a challenge and an uphill climb for this.

• 17:55Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yes. Let's say an appropriate bit of nuance, but still, Rancho, you've argued well. And I think you've got the best of me on this one. So. Give you a point there.

• 18:05Speaker 01

  Just a pebble, just a small rock.

• 18:06Alex Kantrowitz?

  A pebble for dinner. The, um, just after we went off air last week, we talked about how this one co-head of the super alignment team on OpenAI, his name's Jan Leike, just, uh, he resigned and he just tweeted, I resigned. And we talked about how he had a bigger responsibility to the world if he cared about the safety of these AI systems to tell us more than simply, I resigned. Then, over the weekend, he did. And more than that, we learned a little bit more about why these OpenAI folks that are quitting with safety concerns aren't saying anything. So very quickly, Leike says, I joined because I thought OpenAI would be the best place in

• 18:48Alex Kantrowitz?

  the world to do this research. However, however, I have been disagreeing with OpenAI leadership about the company's core priorities for quite some time until we finally reached a breaking point. I believe much more of our bandwidth should be spent getting ready for the next generations of models on security, monitoring, preparedness, safety, adversarial, robustness, super alignment, confidentiality, social impact, and related topics. These problems are quite hard to get right, and I am concerned that we aren't, aren't on a trajectory to get there. Over the past few months, my team has been ceiling against the wind. Sometimes we were struggling for compute, and it was getting harder and harder to get this crucial research done. And he goes on and he says, OpenAI must become a safety first AGI company.

• 19:33Alex Kantrowitz?

  So first, before we get into a little bit deeper, what's going on here? What did you think when you saw his deeper explanation that you had called for on Friday?

• 19:44Speaker 01

  It just actually pushed me back into the what is actually happening behind the scenes? That's all I can think about because, again, OpenAI moving too quickly, maybe like the, and we'll get into using the voice of actresses that they don't have proper licensing for. Google launching products out into the wild that tell you to eat rocks. I get. A lot of this stuff is not great and a lot of this stuff is it's risky behavior and it's going to require taking risk, but the ideas of like super alignment AGI like what has them afraid? Is it just personal problems and kind of infighting with Sam Altman?

• 20:28Speaker 01

  Or is there really, really something that they have seen that they are that they that they're worried about that they're like that they're willing to very publicly leave about? I still don't understand what's going on there.

• 20:43Alex Kantrowitz?

  So here's the deal. There's two possibilities here. One is that Yan and Ilya, Yan LeCun and Ilya Sutskever saw something pretty scary in what was going on within OpenAI and wanted to raise the alarm and ultimately just found like they were hitting a wall internally and nothing has happened. And like you mentioned last week, these people are basically folks that have been dedicated to making AI safe. So, you know, if they didn't talk specifically about what they saw, that that's kind of weird. The other possibility, so I guess I'm sort of biasing in terms of what I believe because I think the other possibility is quite likely. The other possibility is that we are still at this elementary level of LLMs.

• 21:26Alex Kantrowitz?

  And yeah, it's going to be powerful for enterprises and powerful for businesses. And who knows, maybe it will like be useful in search one day and we'll make Mark Zuckerberg a bunch of money. But it's not anywhere close to achieving supernatural or superhuman capabilities. And then these folks just kind of got frustrated after OpenAI was basically like, can you justify what you're doing? And they kept yelling safety without any like practical application. And this isn't just me, this is Yan LeCun, who's the chief AI scientist at Facebook. He says, "It seems to me that before urgently figuring out how to control AI systems much smarter than us, we need to have the beginning of a hint of a design for a system smarter than a house cat.

• 22:07Alex Kantrowitz?

  Such a sense of urgency reveals an extremely distorted view of reality. No wonder the more based members of the organization seek to marginalize the super alignment group. It's as if someone..." Once said in nineteen twenty five, we urgently need to figure out how to control aircrafts that can control, that can transport hundreds of passengers at near the speed of sound over the oceans. It would have been difficult to make those long haul passenger jets safe before the turbojet was invented and before any aircraft had crossed the Atlantic nonstop. Yet we can now fly halfway around the world on two engine jets in complete safety. It didn't require some sort of magical recipe for safety. It took decades of engineering, careful engineering and iterative refinements. What do you think, Rajan?

• 22:52Speaker 01

  Yeah, I loved that quote from Jan. Like, again, the idea of after the first flight saying like, we need to start preparing for safety for this far off vision versus actually just getting there and along the way, having the right people very carefully. And I mean, you know, the economic and capitalist incentives to not have planes that crash all the time. Though Boeing as of today, you know, it's a different story right now. But I think, I think like it's

• 23:23Alex Kantrowitz?

  It's not because of some oversight in the nineteen twenties that

• 23:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly.

• 23:26Alex Kantrowitz?

  Doors are flying off of Boeing airplanes.

• 23:28Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's the exact point. And I actually, it's kind of been fascinating to me to see how this develops. And all right, I think maybe I am liking this because it seems a little more sometimes. It's not some they the Q star, they saw like LLM come to life and start running around the OpenAI office and like just something crazy happening. But it actually, it's mundane organizational politics that they have this vision and required resources. And in reality, at this point, when Google's generative search is still telling us to eat rocks and even OpenAI and ChatGPT is temperamental sometimes, but just gives, just doesn't respond the way and as smartly as it could.

• 24:14Speaker 01

  You're right, maybe that is, they just weren't getting resources anymore. And then they, it's in their incentive. To still go out making a big deal about it and still reminding us that safety is a big priority. It is interesting to me in this whole, if that is the case, like, are we in good hands right now? Are we in the right hands? Because one thing I always think about is the development of social media in the early 2010s. There was no one responsible at the wheel, like, no one was thinking about safety of information. No one was saying, it was just pure Chamath style at Facebook as head of growth, like growth. It was just as fast as possible, as tech-driven as possible with no societal awareness.

• 24:58Speaker 01

  Versus at least now that conversation, every company is thinking about it. Everyone is thinking about it. Again, Google is being mocked as we speak because they're like, because of issues. So I don't know, do you think we're in good hands and we're in the right hands to steer us through this? If, if the Yon Lacoon framing is the right one?

• 25:20Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, I would say that there's, we're in a very different situation than we were with social media. We're basically one platform or two platforms controlled everything. Whereas like this is much, much more distributed. And we already have like an open source social media model. What do you do with that? Nothing. You need a network effect. Whereas with AI, you can use open source to build things. You can use open source to sort of distribute the, the impact here. And so it's much, much, much less likely that this is going to be something that's controlled by, let's say, an OpenAI and Microsoft alone, or controlled by Amazon, or Meta, or Google. It's going to be distributed. And therefore I think that that has a better chance of landing in, you know, with reasonable

• 26:04Alex Kantrowitz?

  application versus this sort of crap shoot when you just have one company or two companies control things. So to me, I think that's, that is probably where we are. Now, like, the question is, like, are we in good hands with OpenAI? I don't know. I mean, they have definitely been very quick to release things that everybody else has not. And so far, as far as I can tell, the world is still standing. And we haven't had like mad, you know, mass hysteria and madness due to people's exposure to chatbots and people are, this is one of the things with misinformation and AI safety. And even this Google rock thing, I think people are often much smarter than a lot of the commentators give them credit for being like.

• 26:48Alex Kantrowitz?

  If Google tells you to eat rocks, you're not going to eat rocks. If an AI tells you that it wants to take your wife away, you're not going to go to your wife and be like, you know, you should go date Bing right now because the AI told me to. Like, people actually do have good defenses against this stuff. And so far, so good.

• 27:06Speaker 01

  I'm not sure if I'm going to fully agree there. I think I have a feeling there's probably people eating rocks as we speak just from seeing the tweet because it was funny and then deciding I'm going to eat a small rock.

• 27:18Alex Kantrowitz?

  But they're doing it ironically, right? So they're not like doing it because Google told them to.

• 27:24Speaker 01

  Actually, that's that is fair, which what does that say about humanity? But I guess in terms of that good hands, yes. OpenAI certainly their behavior this week. I think there's a couple of things that we saw that definitely dig into the question of are we in good hands?

• 27:41Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right, yeah, so that is a perfect lead into this next bit of things where. Okay, so first of all, just I'll set it up a little bit and I'm going to hand to you. But basically, there is a vertical on Vox, it's called Future Perfect. And it's inspired by effective altruism, which to me is a very interesting thing that there's actually a part of a publication that is like says it's EA inspired. Like, I don't realize what like, that's very bizarre to me. I still haven't fully wrapped my head around it. But they have a great reporter there, Kelsey Piper, who then went on after the I resigned tweet to dig up why all these OpenAI ex-safety people have been so quiet

• 28:25Alex Kantrowitz?

  and said nothing about their concerns. And that is, you know, thinking about whether we're in good hands or not and whether OpenAI really should be trusted for handling like the safety of this stuff is is a little bit concerning. So what happened, Ron John?

• 28:40Speaker 01

  Yeah, so in when they leave, there's a nondisclosure agreement where there's a provision that you can never speak ill about, you can never talk about the things you did or saw or speak negatively about OpenAI forever. Otherwise, all the, even the vested equity that you had and certainly unvested equity will be clawed back. And you can imagine for anyone who sat at OpenAI at any time, especially if you're an early employee, that's a lot of money for a lot of people, especially at the current valuation, you know, what is it 90 billion or 95 billion? Like, you imagine you're someone, you're someone who was there when it was in the tens or hundreds of millions even, that's insane amounts of money. So,

• 29:25Speaker 01

  people have kept quiet. And, you know, already, the whole world around like, non-compete agreements, NDAs around when you leave a company, it's already been one that there's been a lot of chatter around, are these ethical, are these the right way to go? But this has almost never been seen to have an NDA in perpetuity, preventing you from talking about, badly about a company.

• 29:50Alex Kantrowitz?

  I mean, you, you report on finance, you've been in the finance world. Has there ever been a situation where you can get your shares, your vested shares clawed back if you don't sign an NDA and a nondisparagement? That to me is nuts. I mean, these people work for you for years. You're gonna claw back the shares because they won't sign an additional document about disparagement? That's crazy.

• 30:11Speaker 01

  No, no, but see, that part to me, for some kind of time period, actually does make sense. And that's the kind of thing you'll see, because especially if you have proprietary information, when you leave a company, even if it's vested equity, then for a private company, that to me is actually not totally unreasonable that for A one-year period or something that you cannot use any of the in proprietary knowledge you had to speak ill about the company. That is not that crazy to me because again, it's like you are you're and you almost have the incentive to not do that because otherwise your equity is going to go to shit anyway. So I think like that part is not the it's the in perpetuity. It's the that's the kind of thing you never see.

• 30:57Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right. And this was a line that stood out stood out to me and I'm curious what you think about it. So Kelsey writes, all of this is highly ironic for a company that initially advertised itself as open AI. That is as committed in its mission statements to building powerful systems in a transparent and accountable manner. So Raja, you tell me this, I mean, is this like a disproof of the fact that they because they they will still and they do talk a big game on safety. Is this almost like a refutation of their interest in that if they're, you know, you know, and obviously nonprofit dedicated to advancing AI safely, but don't freaking say a word or your equity is gone.

• 31:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, I mean, that I feel I think we had talked about they should just rename themselves to chat GPT as a corporation like the pretense of openness and helping the world and all that stuff I feel is so long gone. That to me, this is just another sign that they're a ruthless corporation and that is no, but that has and ruthlessly been delivering excellent products and, you know, finding customers and doing pushing the industry forward, which is fine. And it's just just again, to move away from this whole open AI thing, but also it is a sign that not only are they a ruthless corporation, they're among the most ruthless to have these kind of NDAs.

• 32:23Alex Kantrowitz?

  Now here is another thorny ethical question for you. That's not as easy to answer, which is, is it incumbent upon the researchers on these safety and alignment teams to give up their equity, not sign these non disparagements? And if they're really concerned about what this AI is going to do to us, then to actually go out and say it.

• 32:44Speaker 01

  Absolutely, 100%. If you know that you have worked on something that is potentially going to end and kill all of humanity, I think giving up your shares that will be worthless when we are all taken over by robots and artificial intelligence is probably a reasonable thing to ask ethically of of people who claim to care about safety anyways. So yes, give up your OpenAI shares if you saw Q Star running around the OpenAI office murdering people.

• 33:17Alex Kantrowitz?

  Damn, but so much money, though. Yeah, I don't know.

• 33:22Speaker 01

  I mean, but that valuation.

• 33:23Alex Kantrowitz?

  End of world.

• 33:24Speaker 01

  But that valuation.

• 33:25Alex Kantrowitz?

  Millions of dollars in shares.

• 33:27Speaker 01

  95 bill.

• 33:30Alex Kantrowitz?

  It's tough. So, speaking of ruthlessness and deciding to push the boundaries as much as possible in order to grow, a fascinating thing happened this past week, which is that OpenAI released that flirty chatbot that we spoke about last week. And then Scarlett Joh- and then, sorry, and then Sam Altman tweeted her, which we noted. And then Scarlett Johansson is like, hey, wait a second, that sounds a lot like me. And put a legal team together and basically said, I'm gonna sue OpenAI. And it's even more than that. Basically, what was happening in the background was that OpenAI was trying to convince Scarlett

• 34:15Alex Kantrowitz?

  Johansson to voice this system, or to somehow partner with them, or to market it. And she declined, and they still released a voice that sounded a lot like her. Very, very quickly from her statement. "Last September, I received an offer from Sam Altman, who wanted to hire me to voice the current ChatGPT-4O system. He told me that he felt that by my voicing the system, I could bridge the gap between tech companies and creatives, and help consumers feel comfortable with the seismic shift concerning humans and AI. He said he felt my voice would be comforting to people. After much consideration and for personal reasons, I declined the offer. Nine months later, my friends, family, and the general public all noted how much the

• 34:58Alex Kantrowitz?

  newest system, named Sky, sounded like me." When I heard the release demo, I was shocked, angered and in disbelief that Mr. Altman would pursue a voice that sounded so eerily similar to mine that my closest friends and news outlets could not tell the difference. All right. I listened to the Scarlett Johansson in her. She voices this computer that a guy falls in love with, Joaquin Phoenix falls in love with, and I listened to this OpenAI demo. The intonations were pretty similar. I wouldn't say it's a dead ringer for Scarlett Johansson's voice, but I could see how some people could be confused, especially after Altman tweets her afterward. I'm curious, Ron, on what you think. Do you think what OpenAI did was was above board?

• 35:42Alex Kantrowitz?

  I mean, I'll give you the the explanation for why it might possibly be okay. I mean, they had this vision for the product. They wanted to get Scarlett Johansson involved. She wouldn't come on board. They had somebody else voice it. Of course, it was going to be this flirty AI assistant similar to her. If it wasn't voiced by her itself, by, you know, Scarlett Johansson herself, it was going to be voiced by somebody who's going to try to emulate that. So what's what's the problem with that? What's your perspective?

• 36:08Speaker 01

  I think this is going to be a really, really fascinating legal case for a couple of reasons. So first, Natasha Tiku at the Washington Post actually kind of has a play by play where it seems to exonerate OpenAI because they they had hired this actress a long time ago, long before approach. It's not like they approached Scarlett Johansson. She declined and then they went out and found an actress who sounded like her. The actress herself says she was not given any instruction to sound like Scarlett Johansson. So those things seem to be that make it make it seem as though, you know, this just happens to be a coincidence, but in reality, OpenAI is fine.

• 36:51Speaker 01

  On the other side, you have Sam Altman's tweet of her is honestly the most damning part of this because whether or not she accidentally sounded like Scarlett Johansson, he is very specifically, you know, tying Scarlett Johansson's voice to their new multimodal product and voice driven product. So that alone makes it clear from a business perspective, they are working to associate the two of those voices. Whether or not that was the initial intention, the fact that they did approach Scarlett Johansson is another sign that. They were trying to do this. And my favorite part of all this is Bette Midler makes her way into

• 37:30Speaker 01

  uh, uh, this story because if, for those who are not familiar, the singer of Wind Beneath My Wings and an eighties and nineties movie star, um, maybe she's still doing stuff on Broadway. I'm not sure. She, there's a, there's a precedent here where in the nineties Ford, the motor company had approached her to sing a song that was already hers for a commercial. She declined. They got the rights to the song and then had a singer who was not her sing it exactly in her style. And so she sued and she actually won. And it was clear that the intent of the product or the output was to mimic or copy the celebrity and kind of fool people into thinking the celebrity endorses this product.

• 38:15Speaker 01

  And they did Sam Altman, I think it completely set themselves up to be guilty in this by that what those three letters, that one tweet her from a pure business and legal perspective, he is trying to convince users to associate their voice product with Scarlett Johansson.

• 38:34Alex Kantrowitz?

  So here's a tweet from Mike Solana. He says, to recap, an unknown voice actress using her own voice just lost the greatest opportunity of her life because one of the wealthiest, most famous actresses alive was told by her friends that it sounded like her. This didn't happen.

• 38:49Speaker 01

  God. I mean, it is funny to me because I have seen there now people who typically are not siding with uh, everyday creators and indie creators against large technology corporations are suddenly siding with them. It is interesting, the power dynamics here because the idea that like, you know, an unknown actress is suffering at the hands of evil Scarlett Johansson in defense of $95 billion OpenAI and Sam Altman. It does, I'll agree, create some

• 39:26Speaker 01

  Funny power dynamics, but, but I don't know. And the idea that OpenAI is the defender of the indie creator when we've just talked about, are they destroying the entire web and all incentives for creating any kind of content? I do think that's a bit rich.

• 39:42Alex Kantrowitz?

  Well, this is the thing, right, is that Silicon Valley, obviously, like, tech industry has built a lot of very cool things. We're using them right now, right? But there's also been, shall we say, disregard for intellectual property, a complete and total disregard. Like, if there's moments where they could use copyrighted material, I mean, the AI thing has made this very clear, they will just use it. And I don't think there's a lot of value. There's certainly not a value in the tech industry placed on, let's say, journalistic content, news reporting. And they have, the tech industry has basically felt like it's its own right to effectively take this content and do with it what it pleases, because it doesn't see a lot of value in it.

• 40:25Alex Kantrowitz?

  Except to when it's delivered to users and its own products. And by the way, users love this stuff. Like, a user would much rather be on like a Twitter timeline or on Google News than on a publisher's site, almost always. And like, you could have like, I don't know, 50 publishers, you know, contributing value to Google News and one of them getting the click. And of course, the traffic is good. But there've been other, like, instances, for instance, like, training on YouTube, where it's like, okay, well, we don't really care about copyright, you know, which we think that OpenAI has done. And it's just like, all right, we're gonna train on it. Now, it gets, it gets a little bit more complicated when you go into the entertainment industry, right? And I had a tweet that was basically like, the entertainment industry is starting to feel, finally feel

• 41:08Alex Kantrowitz?

  what the news media industry has felt for years. And it's like, Scarlett Johansson is much more beloved by the public than any single journalist, like, probably by a few standard deviations. And doing things where like, you're gonna try to take or emulate her voice for your product after asking her, and she said no, and tweeting her, like... The tech industry, I think, is going to find out that there is a line here. And this might be it. What do you think?

• 41:36Speaker 01

  I think this is it. I 100%. And again, it's that one tweet. Otherwise, there's so much deniability around. It's another actress we hired a long time ago. We didn't mean for that to happen. Like, that's not what we intended. That's just her voice. You're a bad person for saying she can't have her own voice, this unknown actress. But they didn't say that. They said, he said her. He wanted everyone. He marked, that's marketing. That is genuinely, and I think it's gonna, this is gonna be a really interesting case. And I think it's going to set precedent for how content, existing content and IP can be used in training these models. And I think it's going to be a good thing because that's always needed to happen.

• 42:20Speaker 01

  Even on the image side, like Adobe has been very, very clear about how they built Firefly and Transparent versus even like Stable Diffusion and Dolly are certainly have been a little more aggressive. I think we are going to have to move towards a world where LLMs are more carefully built and the foundation models are carefully built. And I think this is, this is going to be, set that precedent in a good thing. And Scarlett Johansson, whose name will live in the annals of tech history forever.

• 42:52Alex Kantrowitz?

  Absolutely. And shout out to Bobby Allen, who at NPR, friend of the show, who got that scoop. During the Hollywood film strikes, right? The actors and the writer strikes. I was not sure why they were negotiating for like AI rights. And I just kind of thought it was way premature. And now I'm just like, oh, they were actually right on time. And the, the industry, the Hollywood industry is starting to see, and that's why this is resonating so much, that if this is, continues to go on, there might be no incentive for humans to make film, make TV. Like, we all love watching TV. We all love watching films. And we get to see those films because there's a financial incentive for the creators to make those films and make those television shows.

• 43:32Alex Kantrowitz?

  And if, you know, effectively, some of these roles can be co-opted by artificial intelligence, then the whole industry, you know, potentially fall apart. And there's this guy, David Cronenberg, who's a filmmaker, he's a writer and director. And he's basically saying like, this is coming. He goes, I think artificial intelligence can enhance computer generated imagery. And it's, he says, it's quite shocking what can be done even now with the beginning of AI. He says, the whole idea of productions and actors and so on will be gone. That's the promise and the threat of artificial intelligence. If the persons can write it in enough detail, the movie will appear.

• 44:14Alex Kantrowitz?

  I've always felt like statements like this are kind of fanciful and a little bit like nuts, but also just like seeing this Scarlett Johansson thing play out. I'm like, oh, maybe he has a point.

• 44:24Speaker 01

  I don't think it's going to be that transformative. And I say, and I think it will be, but I think already like voice acting, especially for advertisements is something where there's no doubt in my mind that celebrities will license their voice. You will pay them for the voice on some kind of marketplace or through some kind of arrangement. Create the commercial on your end with their voice. Send it back to them for approval. It's better for them. It's better for you. You pay and everyone's happy. I think like that, those kind of arrangements, I think influencers and actors will start licensing out certainly their voice. It's at a certain points, once video is good, their likeness as well. For exactly these kind of reasons, and especially in the advertising world,

• 45:09Speaker 01

  I think all that's going to happen. I think for like the actual creation of movies, I still am more optimistic that this just makes it possible for more people to create great stuff that they otherwise would not have been able to make. So it's going to make the market more competitive and make, allow more people to make very, very professional looking content. And I think that's a good thing. I do think, I was thinking that like at a certain point, it could be like, when you go watch a play, we live here in New York, like you on Broadway or even at an off Broadway theater, there's something different about seeing people up close acting and like live. And that's like a special experience.

• 45:53Speaker 01

  And maybe at a certain point, that's the difference. Like watching real actors acting something out even on film will be this kind of like other more art house type thing versus, or just a different kind of experience versus the, I mean, to me, every Marvel movie should be AI created and already kind of has been for how bad the last few have been. Like I think the whole market will. Kind of bifurcating, you know, you'll have the, the very high input, live, real actors. And then you'll have just the kind of like fake stuff on an ad or whatever, big blockbuster that's kind of crappy anyways.

• 46:36Alex Kantrowitz?

  Or potentially an interactive movie that you're sort of creating with AI and it's more entertaining and more compelling than anything you could watch on screen and in a theater, but who knows, maybe I'm getting ahead of myself.

• 46:46Speaker 01

  I would love that. I would love that.

• 46:48Alex Kantrowitz?

  All right. And we mentioned Techmeme earlier in the show. And before we go to break, I just want to thank Techmeme for showcasing Big Technology Podcast on its homepage. We have a great partnership going on. And that's because Techmeme is my go-to site for finding out what's happening in the tech world as it's happening. And I think you'll find great value from it, too. So that's techmeme.com, T E C H M E M E dot com. All right, we're going to be back after this and we're going to talk about Nvidia. This episode is brought to you by Avpoint. Everyone's racing to roll out AI right now. Co-pilots, chatbots, agents doing real work. But here's the part nobody loves talking about. All that AI runs on your data and most teams have no single way to see it, secure it, and

• 47:30Alex Kantrowitz?

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• 48:14Alex Kantrowitz?

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• 48:59Alex Kantrowitz?

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• 49:14Alex Kantrowitz?

  So let's talk about Nvidia before we head out for the weekend. Crazy earnings, crazy, crazy earnings. I mean, they tripled their revenue to 26 billion. Profit was seven times what it was in a quarter a year ago. 14.88 billion quarterly records for Nvidia. The stock's above $1,000 a share. They're worth $2.63 trillion. They're about to do a 10-for-1 stock split, which is going to make their stock more affordable, and retail investors are going to just dive in. I met a woman at a bagel shop this week who's like, "I watch CNBC, and I've been trying to build my position in Nvidia, but it's too expensive." And now you're going to see her and a bunch of others jump in. Obviously, exceptional results.

• 49:59Alex Kantrowitz?

  The question is, can Nvidia sustain this? And is this something that is the valuation out of sync with where this technology is going? Because as some people have pointed out, this is from Sequoia, that the... Let's see, this is from the Wall Street Journal. Sequoia Capital estimated in March that the industry put in $50 billion to Nvidia's chips to train large language models, but generative AI startups have only made $3 billion in revenue. And Nvidia has 80% of AI chips. So what did you think about the Nvidia earnings? This massive stock that's just driving the market? And do you think that this is sustainable?

• 50:38Speaker 01

  All right, I may be setting myself up here because no one has certainly ever made money talking, speaking ill about Nvidia, but I think this is kind of on its last legs. And here's why. And again, my favorite is from Aaron Levy. He had a, because around the statistic that the data center category rose 427% from a year on year from $222.6 billion in revenue. And he's like, these two numbers have never been next to each other in the history of capitalism. Seeing that kind of growth at that scale is insane.

• 51:19Speaker 01

  To me, the, I don't like that the stock split makes me uncomfortable. And like already, once you're pushing into the financial engineering side, just to kind of keep the stock afloat, your numbers are amazing, and I agree, but that already is, starts to be a warning sign to me because you're gonna, it's gonna, I think in the short term, it will push the stock significantly higher and add a tailwind far beyond these numbers themselves. But the stock is still pricey. And then we get into, they are basically the monopoly at the center of this entire generative AI boom. No one else is making money yet except Nvidia, and they're making a lot of money. But I do think all this investment is going

• 52:04Speaker 01

  to, there's still gonna be a trough of disillusionment around the corner when people start to realize that making money off of this is gonna be hard, and it's gonna take some time to get the business models right, to get the actual user experiences right. And I think the moment that happens, that, I mean, these numbers that you're seeing, because the growth is already priced in, is gonna start to, I don't know, it'll start to turn the corner on Nvidia.

• 52:33Alex Kantrowitz?

  But maybe there is an ROI there if we see AI get baked into every website we visit and every, even our PCs itself. I mean, Microsoft had this PC event. They started creating this, these AI PCs, and they do some crazy things like this feature called Recall, where you basically, they're taking screenshots of everything you do and sort of can help remember things that you visited and, you know, what sort of things you were doing on your computer in case you forget or you want to see it again. But I guess that also takes place, like a lot of the computing takes place on the PC itself versus in the cloud, which is what Nvidia is servicing.

• 53:13Speaker 01

  Well, but we had talked about, like you spoke with Aaron Levy, we talked about last week, the cost of compute is going to go down and down and down. And like, again, GPT-4O, for Omni is 50% cheaper than GPT-4 was when it first launched. Like, that's the main thing that we're going to build smarter models, smaller models, I think. So that, then, all the talk around like, we're going to need to rethink our entire electricity infrastructure to feed this AI machine as it gets into every experience that we have, I actually don't think is going to be as profound as people are saying it's going to be. And that's why I think Nvidia is the one that gets hurt on that. We all benefit. But I think it's going to, compute's

• 53:58Speaker 01

  going to get smarter, models are going to get cheaper, and that's good for every, all of us, except for Nvidia.

• 54:04Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yeah, it's like, everybody needs an AI strategy, so they're doing whatever they can to buy these chips. But eventually, like, though, it will settle into the people that can make money from this and that it can't. And like, I think even about Meta, like, we praise Meta, but Meta is going to have 650,000 Nvidia GPUs by the end of this year. And they started buying early, you know, Power Reels. But,

• 54:25Alex Kantrowitz?

  Where is the ROI there for them? I mean, they have these chatbots in their apps and you know, they've built this open source model, but eventually are they just going to be like, how exactly are we supposed to make money from this? Maybe Reality Labs? I don't know. What do you think?

• 54:39Speaker 01

  Well, no, but this is why the best thing, I forget where I heard, is that Nvidia trades like a commodities company, not a technology company, is that it's it's trading a commodity, GPU chips that are in a like in commodities, it's called a super cycle where lithium or copper or something, there's some some like exogenous use case that creates just such an insane demand that the price of it skyrockets of that underlying thing you're trading. So any company that happened to invest a lot of money to build mines or find this commodity, just their profits become insane. And I think that's exactly what's happening here. And then any super cycle, there's always a downside on the other end. And I think that's exactly

• 55:23Speaker 01

  what's going to happen. It's suddenly a lot of people are going to be sitting on a lot of chips that are still useful, but they'll start realizing that they're not cranking out revenue in the way they hoped they would. So then they're going to have to kind of rethink a little bit. And I think there's going to be a lot of generative AI startups that are also probably raised a lot of money and are hoarding compute right now that are just going to go out of business.

• 55:47Alex Kantrowitz?

  Inflection, stability. They're already seeing that. We're already seeing it.

• 55:51Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, exactly. So I think, again, and again, each one of these situations, good for everyone except Nvidia.

• 55:59Alex Kantrowitz?

  So let's just play the short game before we end. All right, Nvidia is currently 2.62 trillion market cap. Apple's 2.9 trillion. Does Nvidia surpass Apple?

• 56:10Speaker 01

  Um, on what time horizon or just ever?

• 56:13Alex Kantrowitz?

  Ever.

• 56:14Speaker 01

  Yes, I think I definitely think in the short term, I think. There's a not, this is, this is going to play out over the next year. And I think when this stock splits already every, you said in a bagel shop, everyone I know talks about Nvidia, asks, do you own Nvidia? Like brags about when they got into Nvidia. It is, it is like the super meme stock at the moment. And again, it's one of those things. It's almost kind of frustrating because it is a very strong sound business that actually has built incredible products and has positioned itself incredibly well for this transformative moment. But the

• 56:56Speaker 01

  moment, that story just never ends well. But I do think it will surpass Apple at some point, especially after the stock split, unless Apple announces Siri is fixed in a couple of weeks at W W C and then

• 57:11Alex Kantrowitz?

  Right.

• 57:11Speaker 01

  To the moon.

• 57:12Alex Kantrowitz?

  So then next one, is Nvidia gonna surpass Microsoft? Is there a chance that Nvidia becomes the most valuable company in the world? Microsoft's $3.2 trillion market cap.

• 57:25Speaker 01

  I think so. I think so. Again, same thesis that it's, there's so many short term tailwinds. The stock split is being made to bring in retail even more. This is gonna, Nvidia is gonna be the story five years, seven years from now, when we talk about the AI mania. And again, like any other mania, I think there's an underlying story here, but I think Nvidia, it can definitely go a lot higher right now.

• 57:54Alex Kantrowitz?

  It's crazy. I mean, obviously, this is not investment advice. So people take it with a grain of salt, but, or take it for what it's worth. But my goodness, I mean, if Nvidia becomes the most, Nvidia becomes the most valuable company in the world, if it happens, and we don't have proven ROI on the technology that's boosting this, it's just, it's gonna be one of the craziest moments in financial history, I think. And I don't think it's gonna end well. But many people have said that about Nvidia before and keeps going up, number go up.

• 58:21Speaker 01

  Well, that's the thing. But, but again, it's already a very, very expensive stock right now. That's the main thing that, you know, it's like, it's grown incredibly, but on any kind of financial metric like or financial ratio, it's incredibly expensive. And I think that's, there's bringing in more retail and making it more accessible is only going to inflate that a bit more. But at some point, the, the, its customers have to see, see ROI and that's going to be interesting. And telling people to eat rocks is not going to get us there, at least in the near term.

• 58:57Alex Kantrowitz?

  Well, yes, but one small pebble seems at least

• 59:01Speaker 01

  One small rock.

• 59:02Alex Kantrowitz?

  Appropriate for a Memorial Day barbecue.

• 59:04Speaker 01

  This Memorial Day, yeah. When you're, when you're grilling and you got the dogs and the burgers on the grill, make sure to add this side dish of choice.

• 59:13Alex Kantrowitz?

  All right, Ron John. Great speaking with you as always. Have a great weekend and looking forward to talking with you, not next week, but the week after.

• 59:21Speaker 01

  Yep. See you in a couple of weeks.

• 59:23Alex Kantrowitz?

  Yes. All right, folks. Next week, we have Brian McCullough of Tech Meme Ride Home coming in, filling in for Ron John. So that'll be fun. We also have Luis Metzakis to come on to talk about two of our most intriguing companies, Sheen and Demu. She's done a deep dive forward on big technology and we're going to talk about it on Wednesday. All right, everybody. Thank you so much for listening. Have a great weekend and we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast.

• 59:46Speaker 02

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