The State of AI: A Field Trip to TBPN’s Aura Farm + Today’s Top Tech Stories | Diet TBPN

Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in under 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Figma - https://figma.com Vanta - https://vanta.com Linear - https://linear.app Eight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpn Wander - https://wander.com/tbpn Public - https://public.com AdQuick - https://adquick.com Bezel - https://getbezel.com Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.com Polymarket - https://polymarket.com Attio - https://attio.com/tbpn Fin - https://fin.ai/tbpn Graphite - https://graphite.dev Restream - https://restream.io Profound - https://tryprofound.com Julius AI - https://julius.ai turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com fal - https://fal.ai Privy - https://www.privy.io Cognition - https://cognition.ai Gemini - https://gemini.google.com Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Jordi Hays?

  You're watching TVPN.

• 0:01John Coogan?

  Today's Friday, November 21st, 2025. We are live from the TVPN UltraDome, the Temple of Technology.

• 0:07Jordi Hays?

  The Fortress of Finance, the Capital of Capital.

• 0:10John Coogan?

  We have generated an image of the Aura Farm, the world, trying to understand.

• 0:17Jordi Hays?

  A barnyard.

• 0:18John Coogan?

  A barnyard, sort of an AI market map, but through the lens of a barnyard, because that's really what is going on in AI these days. And we can take you on a tour of our farm-based market map to explain what's happening in the state of AI in November of 2025. Tyler, do you want to take us through it?

• 0:40Speaker 02

  Sure. Yeah. I mean, so we like to use a lot of animal idioms on this show. A lot of these you might recognize, but we've kind of expanded out to try to cover all the major players. And, you know, so, yes, so this was made with Nano Banana Pro, a very extremely good model. But you will notice as you get more and more complex, it gets a little bit sloppy.

• 1:03Jordi Hays?

  Sir.

• 1:04Speaker 02

  There's some slop in some places.

• 1:05Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Before Nano Banana Pro was released, we would have needed to hire a, somebody that maybe illustrates children's books. And if they were an expert, maybe they could have whipped something together in a day. This took you far longer than that, you know, prompting over and over and over.

• 1:22Speaker 02

  Yeah. Okay. So I guess let's just kind of go through each of the animals. Maybe, maybe let's just start with some of the more obvious ones, the ones we've talked about a lot on the show. So let's start over here with the piggies. So here we see the pigs at the slop trough.

• 1:39Jordi Hays?

  Who's there?

• 1:39Speaker 02

  And so this is broadly, this is just labeled as meta. You can imagine a lot of people here, right? You could, you could see Sora here.

• 1:45John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 1:46Jordi Hays?

  Bill Peebles.

• 1:47Speaker 02

  Bill Peebles could be, you know. Eating some slop.

• 1:51John Coogan?

  Yes, metal vibes.

• 1:52Speaker 02

  Yep, just like broadly AI in general, some people think basically all AI is slop.

• 1:57John Coogan?

  They do. They do. There's been a lot of criticism.

• 2:00Speaker 02

  Yeah, but I think that one's fairly clear.

• 2:02John Coogan?

  You don't want to be at the, you don't want to be the pig at the slop trough, although sometimes, you know, maybe the profitability of being a slop farmer is underrated. Obviously, America has a lot of pigs that live at the trough. They eat from the trough. They eventually, the pigs go to slaughter. They become bacon. They are sold into the economy. You can make a good living as a farmer who

• 2:29Speaker 02

  That's right.

• 2:29John Coogan?

  who maintains a trough.

• 2:30Jordi Hays?

  And then there's the Jeremy Gaffon take, which is, we hate slop now because we know that in a few years, it will no longer be slop.

• 2:37John Coogan?

  Yes, yes, yes.

• 2:38Jordi Hays?

  So, don't count out, uh, don't count out the piggies yet.

• 2:40Speaker 02

  This is the sloppiest slop will ever be.

• 2:42John Coogan?

  That's true. That's true. Okay. Who else is on this?

• 2:45Speaker 02

  Um, so then let's move up. Let's see. We have the hen house here.

• 2:48John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 2:49Speaker 02

  And so, and who's in the hen house is the fox.

• 2:51John Coogan?

  The fox.

• 2:51Speaker 02

  Right? And so, so this, you can say is kind of oracle in Sam Altman, right? Oracle is the hen, is the hen house?

• 2:57John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 2:57Jordi Hays?

  They let the fox in.

• 2:58Speaker 02

  They're letting the fox in a little bit.

• 2:59John Coogan?

  Potentially.

• 3:00Speaker 02

  Yeah, we'll, we'll see what, what, you know, when, what, what ends up happening, but.

• 3:03John Coogan?

  Again, uh, now that I'm looking at this image, the fox isn't actually in the hen house yet.

• 3:08Jordi Hays?

  But he's kind of circling it.

• 3:10John Coogan?

  He's circling the hen house. And there's a question of, of how, how, how far into the hen house has the fox got?

• 3:16Jordi Hays?

  And I think it's, it's notable that the chickens don't seem too disturbed yet.

• 3:19John Coogan?

  Yes, yes. Yeah, yeah. They're getting along because the fox could just be browsing, could just be stopping by.

• 3:24Jordi Hays?

  Could be friendly.

• 3:25John Coogan?

  Friendly fox.

• 3:26Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 3:26John Coogan?

  Um, but, but of course, uh, it is, i- i- if you have a, if you have a lot of cash flow as a big company, if you have the ability to borrow, uh, billions or hundreds of billions in the debt market, you have to protect your hen house because

• 3:39Speaker 02

  That's right.

• 3:40John Coogan?

  uh, foxes might come by and might want to, might want to use you to co-sign a loan.

• 3:45Speaker 02

  Um, okay. So then we see the cash cow.

• 3:47John Coogan?

  The cash cow.

• 3:48Speaker 02

  This is Nvidia.

• 3:49Jordi Hays?

  The only profits in AI.

• 3:51John Coogan?

  For a long time, I don't know if anyone has really unseated them. They're certainly the most profitable by far.

• 3:57Speaker 02

  Now you're starting to see maybe some cracks with TPUs.

• 4:00John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 4:00Speaker 02

  But even then, I mean, they're, they're still.

• 4:02John Coogan?

  It's still a cash cow. Not on the open market. Yeah, they just beat earnings. I mean, we have, we have an article here from the journal, Nvidia results fail to quell AI worries. Not enough people are milking the cash cow. I gave you the perfect quarter. Or maybe, maybe the. I gave you the perfect quarter. I know. And you still sold off. Maybe, maybe the, the cash cow has been over, overly milked and is out of milk at this point, but.

• 4:23Speaker 02

  I think it's still producing.

• 4:24John Coogan?

  I think it's, it does seem like it's still producing. That looks like a healthy cow to me.

• 4:27Speaker 02

  Yeah. So, so here we have the bull in the China shop.

• 4:29John Coogan?

  The bull in the China shop.

• 4:30Speaker 02

  I think there's a couple of ways you could read into this. So Elon, uh, one is just kind of on the, maybe the, the data center infrastructure side where he's, he's kind of the bull. He's, imagine that you're a contractor and you're building data centers for, for these companies. And then you see Elon come in and he does it in, in eight months, what took you in a year and a half?

• 4:47John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 4:48Speaker 02

  He's kind of messing up your world, right?

• 4:49John Coogan?

  Totally, totally.

• 4:50Speaker 02

  He's like, oh man, this, this bull, he's, he's messing up my, my business. I need to be working way harder, way faster.

• 4:54John Coogan?

  He's also shipping features so fast, like.

• 4:57Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 4:57John Coogan?

  Like before people could even have a discussion over adult content. It was like, boom, Annie, here, here it is, Valentine.

• 5:03Speaker 02

  So this is the other way.

• 5:04John Coogan?

  So fast.

• 5:05Speaker 02

  This is the other way you could say he's the bull because there's kind of this maybe unspoken, unspoken rule between the model companies where it's like, okay, we don't want to go too hard into the, the companion.

• 5:15John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 5:16Speaker 02

  You know, space. There, there were companies doing that, but they weren't, uh, it wasn't the opening eyes. It wasn't the anthropics. It wasn't the, the geminis.

• 5:21John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 5:21Speaker 02

  And then now you see. Now you see a frontier model actually moving into there.

• 5:25John Coogan?

  Also, you know, Grok is of course the maximally truth-seeking LLM. Just yesterday I was asking Grok, who is the strongest CEO in tech? And it told me that Elon Musk is the strongest by far. And it actually compared him to a bull. It said he was stronger than a bull and that he could beat a bull in a fight if he went head to head.

• 5:44Speaker 02

  I believe it.

• 5:44John Coogan?

  With his bare hands.

• 5:45Speaker 02

  Absolutely right.

• 5:46John Coogan?

  Yes, absolutely. You're absolutely right. What else is going on here? Uh, so then maybe let's move down.

• 5:52Speaker 02

  Would agree if you really pressed Claude on it and said, yeah, I, I, you're absolutely right.

• 5:56John Coogan?

  You're absolutely right.

• 5:58Speaker 02

  So let's move down here. We have the lipstick on a pig. And I think this you could say is Apple intelligence. Right? I mean, although I feel like this is actually almost flipped a little bit, right? Because the pig is usually like the ugly thing and then you add the makeup to make it look nicer.

• 6:14John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 6:15Jordi Hays?

  Well, I think that's what they did here, right? They took a bad model and they dressed it up. And they'd said it was great and they said you should buy a new iPhone because of it. And the model was bad. And there's no amount of marketing that is gonna like change public perception once the product hit the market.

• 6:31John Coogan?

  You could also run the the the pig is the privacy focused iPhone ecosystem that is pretty difficult to just run in and throw AI on top of like. Apple has been building a brand around we don't access your data. We don't store your data. We would never train on your data. And and that put them in an awkward position where they couldn't just snap their fingers and deliver a great AI experience. Whereas Google has been, hey, you know, we'll give you Gmail for free, but we'll also, you know, probably train on wherever you go on the web and try and understand and route ads to you appropriately. Meadow is in a similar position. And so those two companies were a little bit more equipped to just on day one, go and go and deliver AI features.

• 7:17John Coogan?

  Apple had to put lipstick on their pig, which is their privacy focused device.

• 7:21Speaker 02

  More of like an afterthought. It was more of a kind of shallow integration, you could say. So then we have the dark horse.

• 7:26John Coogan?

  The dark horse.

• 7:26Speaker 02

  And this is SSI.

• 7:27John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 7:28Jordi Hays?

  Of course.

• 7:29Speaker 02

  We're still yet to see anything really from SSI.

• 7:31Jordi Hays?

  Ilya just charging around in the background.

• 7:33John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 7:34Speaker 02

  Yeah, kind of this elusive figure. So so the big kind of departures from OpenAI, it was Miriam Rati and Ilya, you could say.

• 7:41John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 7:41Speaker 02

  And Miriam Rati's company, Think Machines, I mean, they're they're

• 7:43John Coogan?

  She's raising up rounds.

• 7:44Speaker 02

  They have they have blog posts.

• 7:45John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 7:46Speaker 02

  They do actually have a product. They do have a product.

• 7:52John Coogan?

  Why did you tell me earlier? Why, why, why'd you bury the lead? They have blog posts.

• 7:58Speaker 02

  They, they are good blog posts. I like them.

• 8:00John Coogan?

  So in a couple of years, we could be seeing vibe reels. Is that what you're saying? We could be seeing launch videos?

• 8:04Speaker 02

  So they do have a product, right? It's like RL fine tuning.

• 8:06Jordi Hays?

  Watch your head. There's a hoof.

• 8:08John Coogan?

  The horse is really...

• 8:10Speaker 02

  But, I mean, they're not really dark horse. Like you can, they're a bright horse.

• 8:13John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 8:14Speaker 02

  I don't know if that's a, a phrase, but like you can see what they're doing.

• 8:16John Coogan?

  They're Clydesdale or, or a, a beautiful stallion.

• 8:19Jordi Hays?

  They're a unicorn 50 times over.

• 8:21John Coogan?

  50 times over?

• 8:22Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 8:22John Coogan?

  We didn't put a unicorn on here. That's an animal.

• 8:24Speaker 02

  It would get too sloppy.

• 8:25John Coogan?

  Okay. What else do we have?

• 8:26Speaker 02

  Um, so then...

• 8:27John Coogan?

  What else is going on on the aura farm?

• 8:28Speaker 02

  So here, here we see another horse.

• 8:30John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 8:30Speaker 02

  And there's two ways you could look into this horse, right? One is, is this phrase, "Look a gift horse in the mouth."

• 8:35John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 8:36Speaker 02

  Right? Do you want to explain this, John?

• 8:37John Coogan?

  Yes. So, do you know this phrase?

• 8:39Speaker 02

  I've never...

• 8:39John Coogan?

  You don't know this phrase, "Looking a gift horse in the mouth"? Okay. So looking a gift horse in the mouth is, uh, if someone gives you...

• 8:45Jordi Hays?

  Is this like a term that was thrown around in the eighties?

• 8:47John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah. This is, this is back in my day, back in my day. So, uh, obviously, uh, i- i- it, just giving someone a horse, a horse is a valuable asset today, but also hundreds of years ago. It's always been a valuable tool on the, on the farm. Um, and the way that you assess the quality of a horse, one way to assess whether it's been taken care of, whether it's healthy, is to look in its mouth, look at the teeth.

• 9:12Jordi Hays?

  Always look a gift horse in the mouth.

• 9:13John Coogan?

  No, never look to get, never look a gift horse in the mouth.

• 9:15Jordi Hays?

  Oh, because it would be offensive.

• 9:16John Coogan?

  It's offensive.

• 9:17Speaker 02

  It's like you're not expressing gratitude.

• 9:18John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 9:19Speaker 02

  And so I think this, these are just the public market investors.

• 9:22John Coogan?

  Investors.

• 9:22Speaker 02

  Right? We've been given this gift of AI.

• 9:24John Coogan?

  Why are they selling their stocks right now?

• 9:25Speaker 02

  Why are they selling?

• 9:26John Coogan?

  They've been giving, they, they need to be buying.

• 9:28Speaker 02

  This beautiful gift and, and they just don't want it.

• 9:30John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 9:30Speaker 02

  They're selling, their video's down.

• 9:32John Coogan?

  They're digging in a little bit too much.

• 9:34Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 9:34John Coogan?

  They should just be happy that they've been given AI.

• 9:36Speaker 02

  Exactly.

• 9:37John Coogan?

  The next mega trend.

• 9:38Speaker 02

  Exactly. So also the horse could be a workhorse.

• 9:41John Coogan?

  A workhorse.

• 9:41Speaker 02

  Right? And so I think you could say this is Amazon.

• 9:43John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 9:44Speaker 02

  It's a bit, it's a bit hard to define Amazon's AI strategy, right? Part of it is they're building data centers for Anthropic, but they're definitely not getting... Uh overly ambitious. They're not like, you know, getting over their skis. Um but they're just doing the hard work. They're building the data centers. They're serving.

• 9:59John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 9:59Speaker 02

  Serving models.

• 10:00John Coogan?

  Maybe not fast enough. They might not be building the data centers fast enough. They might not be super aggressive. They're not, they're not, they're not show jumping. They're just, they're just dragging the plow.

• 10:09Speaker 02

  But they are.

• 10:10John Coogan?

  Consistently dragging the plow. All reliable Amazons cooking along. Um they're, they're, they're staying out of the, they're staying out of the slop trough. They're not doing a deal. Amazon has not done a deal yet with OpenAI for the agentic commerce thing. Maybe that changes, but for now they're just plodding along. Who else we got here?

• 10:28Speaker 02

  Um, let's go to the black sheep.

• 10:30John Coogan?

  The black sheep.

• 10:31Speaker 02

  So black sheep, there's also a lot of people that could fit in this.

• 10:34John Coogan?

  Yes, of course.

• 10:34Speaker 02

  But I think maybe Carpathia is one of them.

• 10:36John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 10:36Speaker 02

  Right. He has some of these contrarian, contrarian takes about, um, maybe it's the decade of agents.

• 10:42John Coogan?

  And to be clear, we're not calling him a sheep. He's not, the, the.

• 10:45Speaker 02

  It should be more of a black wolf.

• 10:46John Coogan?

  Black wolf, but the idea is that he's standing out. A lot of people in his, in his class of, of ultra respected, you know, uh, technologists, some of the, you know, most experienced. He's really been at Tesla. He's seen the AI wave. He's been working in it for decades. He's really worked on this.

• 11:04Jordi Hays?

  He's printed all of it.

• 11:06John Coogan?

  Yeah, he's done so much.

• 11:07Jordi Hays?

  Sitting with the rest of them saying bah.

• 11:09John Coogan?

  He broke, but he broke rank, even though he's worked at OpenAI, even though he's worked at Tesla. He broke rank. He went on the Dwarash Patel show and said, you know what? I think we're more in a decade of agents. I think AGI might not be right around the corner. Uh, he took a contrarian stance at a very controversial time.

• 11:26Jordi Hays?

  And he popped the bubble with it.

• 11:28John Coogan?

  He basically popped the bubble with it. Maybe, we'll see. The bubble will keep going.

• 11:31Jordi Hays?

  The elephant in the room, the elephant in the room is, is, was, in my view, really more of the 1.4 trillion. Right? That was the question. That was the big question. That was what everybody wanted to talk about, uh, or, or at least understand better. Brad asked the question and it's been downhill ever since.

• 11:48John Coogan?

  Yes. And it is, yeah, the elephant in the room is, is in every conversation, every, every financing round at this point.

• 11:55Speaker 02

  Exactly.

• 11:55John Coogan?

  Is, is this, i- i- is this deal predicated on a continuation of exponential growth in investment in everything? Like how much more, how, how risky is this, uh, relative to the amount of froth in the market?

• 12:10Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Never, never ask a, a, a woman her age, a man, his salary, or a, a, a lab founder, how they're going to spend 1.4 trillion.

• 12:20John Coogan?

  Yeah. Or how they're gonna pay for it.

• 12:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 12:23John Coogan?

  Yeah. Who else we got on here?

• 12:24Speaker 02

  So then, in the top right, we have the bird's eye view.

• 12:27John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 12:27Speaker 02

  So I thought this was, yeah, this is situational awareness. This is Leopold.

• 12:30John Coogan?

  It's the perfect name.

• 12:31Speaker 02

  Right?

• 12:31John Coogan?

  He has the situational awareness.

• 12:33Speaker 02

  He's seeing everything. He's kind of the master of the board.

• 12:35John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 12:36Speaker 02

  He's taken his bets and he's been doing pretty well off them.

• 12:38John Coogan?

  Yes, yes, yes.

• 12:39Speaker 02

  Um, yeah, that was pretty self-explanatory.

• 12:41John Coogan?

  Yeah, I, I love it.

• 12:42Speaker 02

  So then we go down, we have, uh, lion's share.

• 12:44John Coogan?

  The lion's share.

• 12:45Speaker 02

  This is Satya. Satya has taken great, uh, position in OpenAI.

• 12:49Jordi Hays?

  I don't know why he's on the top of a haystack. I'll take, I'll take a third of the company and you can give me 250 billion and I'll take 20% off the top.

• 12:58Speaker 02

  And I'll take all the IP.

• 13:00Jordi Hays?

  As well.

• 13:00John Coogan?

  Yeah, everything.

• 13:01Speaker 02

  I'll also take your chip and I'll make it my chip.

• 13:04John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:04Jordi Hays?

  Your chip is my chip.

• 13:06John Coogan?

  The entire contract was basically.

• 13:07Speaker 02

  Two chip as me.

• 13:09John Coogan?

  The entire OpenAI Microsoft deal is basically, could just be summarized in one line. I get the lion's share. I get the lion's share.

• 13:16Speaker 02

  We see, uh, monkey business. These are the podcasters.

• 13:19John Coogan?

  That's us. We're having fun.

• 13:20Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 13:21John Coogan?

  We got props. We got all sorts of stuff. Sound effects. Um, we need, we need some, we need some monkey sound effects on there. We have a bunch of, uh, of animal themed sound effects we need to have more fun with. Anyway.

• 13:33Speaker 02

  Um, and then maybe let's go into the pond. We have the sitting duck.

• 13:36John Coogan?

  Yes, the sitting duck is incredibly cute.

• 13:38Speaker 02

  So, so Reddit, uh.

• 13:40John Coogan?

  Why were they, why, why was Reddit a sitting duck?

• 13:43Speaker 02

  Yeah, so I think they broadly.

• 13:45Jordi Hays?

  It's because whether or not you have a permit, you're getting, the hunters are gonna get you.

• 13:49John Coogan?

  I think, I think Alexis Ohanian sort of laid this out saying that, uh, that when, when Reddit did the deal to give the data to OpenAI, they didn't realize how valuable that data was gonna be and that relationship has grown, grown, grown. Um, and so they were kind of the sitting duck, just sitting there. They didn't really, it kind of got caught off guard. Maybe could have trained their own model on their data internally.

• 14:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I feel like Reddit has mostly been, they've kind of already gone out to the slaughter in a sense, like every model company has trained off them.

• 14:19John Coogan?

  You'd think so, but look at the market cap. It just keeps going up. Reddit was sold for $5 million or something when it launched. Like, it's been.

• 14:27Jordi Hays?

  It was 10, it was 10.

• 14:28John Coogan?

  It was 10.

• 14:28Jordi Hays?

  To Conde Nast.

• 14:29John Coogan?

  10 to Conde Nast. That's a crazy, crazy low valuation. And then eventually spun out and then for a long time it was in the hundreds of millions and no one was thinking this is a tens of billions. For a long time, like people, the narrative was not, oh yeah, this will be orders of magnitude more than Snap. No way, no way. And then, and then it just sort of finally came together.

• 14:48Speaker 02

  And we have the headless chicken. This is perplexity.

• 14:50John Coogan?

  Perplexity.

• 14:51Speaker 02

  So I think perplexity, you know, they have a lot of different strategies. Some of them kind of seem opposed to each other, right? Maybe they're doing a browser. Maybe they're doing a Bloomberg terminal.

• 15:02Jordi Hays?

  Maybe they're rebuilding Yahoo Finance. I do see more positive reviews of their browser than any of the other AI browsers.

• 15:12John Coogan?

  There's just a lot of stuff going on. It's the Snapchat deal, the trying to buy TikTok, trying to buy Chrome, launching a venture fund, Bloomberg terminal. It's like, are you competing with all of these? Really? You're gonna be TikTok and Chrome and Bloomberg and the next thing?

• 15:28Jordi Hays?

  Have you guys ever witnessed a headless chicken?

• 15:32John Coogan?

  No, I haven't.

• 15:33Jordi Hays?

  Growing up in the country, I have.

• 15:35John Coogan?

  You grew up in the country? What are you talking about? I thought you, I thought you grew up with the East Bay rationalists.

• 15:39Jordi Hays?

  I was born in Berkeley, but I grew up in wine country.

• 15:42John Coogan?

  Oh, okay.

• 15:43Jordi Hays?

  And I have fortunately, unfortunately, watched my father take one of the chickens, you know, every now and again. A chicken needs to, to move on to the next chapter. And as a child.

• 15:56John Coogan?

  You sound like you're firing the chicken.

• 15:58Jordi Hays?

  It is a real thing. They run for, you know, at least 20 seconds or so. And I'll never forget it.

• 16:09Speaker 02

  So next we have the snake in the grass.

• 16:10John Coogan?

  Snake in the grass.

• 16:11Speaker 02

  This is the Chinese open source models, right? These are kind of lurking. I still don't really see that much coverage of Chinese open source models.

• 16:18Jordi Hays?

  Nobody wants, nobody wants to talk about it.

• 16:20John Coogan?

  Well, no one has bags, so they can't pump them. Snake in the grass feels like it's going to attack. Elephant in the room means we got to address it. It's like, it's totally possible that the entire open source LLM ecosystem is just like, yeah, there's like a $10 billion business there. It's sort of like, you know, a stalking horse. Another, another animal-based analogy, but it's sort of a stalking horse for like, "Hey, Gemini and Anthropic, like, if you guys don't lower your prices, we will go to the open source option." And that's sort of what Linux, how Linux works. It's like that, that you can kind of bid the closed source models against the open source models.

• 16:59Jordi Hays?

  It's a very real threat to the, the business models of some of the closed, closed source models.

• 17:05John Coogan?

  Maybe, I don't know.

• 17:06Jordi Hays?

  It's certainly a pressure. It's, it's, Kimmy is hot on everyone's tails. The other thing is a soft power thing, right? Ask it, ask a Chinese open source model about Tiananmen Square.

• 17:18John Coogan?

  So we agree it's a snake in the grass, but unclear how poisonous the snake is, unclear the size of that snake.

• 17:24Speaker 02

  Early bird that caught the worm, this is Josh Kushner?

• 17:26John Coogan?

  I think so.

• 17:26Speaker 02

  Right?

• 17:27John Coogan?

  I like that.

• 17:27Speaker 02

  He got the worm, the worm was OpenAI.

• 17:29John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 17:29Speaker 02

  He was very early on.

• 17:31Jordi Hays?

  Early with size.

• 17:32John Coogan?

  Early with size, doubled down many times.

• 17:34Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 17:35John Coogan?

  He got the worm, he's the early bird.

• 17:36Speaker 02

  Incredible, yeah.

• 17:38John Coogan?

  Why is Anthropic donkey work?

• 17:41Speaker 02

  Donkey work?

• 17:42John Coogan?

  What does donkey work mean?

• 17:43Speaker 02

  100% sure that this is like a real phrase. Apparently, I asked GPT-4.5 and I asked Gemini 3 Pro.

• 17:50John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 17:50Speaker 02

  And they both said it was a real thing.

• 17:51John Coogan?

  Okay, it's boring or laborious part of a job, it's drudgery, donkey work.

• 17:55Speaker 02

  In this case, I, I think it's kind of that Anthropic has gone very hard on coding. And API and enterprise.

• 18:02John Coogan?

  Okay, okay, yeah, the laborious work.

• 18:04Speaker 02

  It's kind of laborious.

• 18:05John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, they're not doing like the, the really hot sexy like.

• 18:08Jordi Hays?

  They're not doing a browser.

• 18:09Speaker 02

  They're not solving science.

• 18:10John Coogan?

  Yeah, they're not doing consumer science stuff. Yeah, they're doing the donkey work.

• 18:13Jordi Hays?

  Daria is sitting there being like, "Who's gonna take all the jobs?"

• 18:18John Coogan?

  Who's gonna take all the jobs? I like donkey work, that, that feels the most accurate for what they're doing. They're going after the entry-level white-collar workers. They're, they're, they're doing the donkey work.

• 18:30Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 18:30John Coogan?

  Google, I just love this image.

• 18:32Speaker 02

  This is the last one, uh, Google is the fat cat. Before we had Google, uh, snail's pace, I think this would have been true maybe a year ago.

• 18:39John Coogan?

  Fat cat's so much funnier, look at that cat, it's so fat. I love it.

• 18:43Jordi Hays?

  All the cash flow, all the TPUs.

• 18:46John Coogan?

  All the TPUs, they're GPU-rich.

• 18:48Speaker 02

  The best image model, the best text model, depending on what, what Ben product you look at.

• 18:53John Coogan?

  They're on top of the world.

• 18:54Jordi Hays?

  Slightly concerned, we have a sign for golden goose, but there's no goose.

• 18:58John Coogan?

  The golden goose was removed, but the sign remained.

• 19:00Jordi Hays?

  Who stole the golden goose?

• 19:02John Coogan?

  Yeah, who killed the golden goose?

• 19:03Jordi Hays?

  Or is there just no gold? If there's no golden goose on the AI, in the AI barnyard, is that, is that bearish?

• 19:09John Coogan?

  The golden goose is a goose that lays a golden egg one every day. And in the parable, in the story, the farmer kills the golden goose to get all of the gold inside, but it is revealed that by killing the goose, you no longer get the, the, uh, the passive income.

• 19:27Speaker 02

  Maybe one take is the golden goose, they were the neoclauds. And then the market is hurting, hurting, is taking the goose away.

• 19:35John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 19:35Speaker 02

  Core weave not in the past, past what month they've been selling off a little bit?

• 19:40John Coogan?

  Core weave continues to lay golden eggs, but the market got overheated and so that, that, that sort of killed the gains or something.

• 19:48Speaker 02

  And the gold is the GPUs, subsidized GPUs.

• 19:51John Coogan?

  The chip CEO staring down Nvidia and talk of an AI bubble. At a board meeting in late 2022, Lisa Su, chief executive of chip designer AMD, announced that she was radically changing course. "I'm going to pivot the entire company," she told the directors gathered around a boardroom table at the company's Austin campus. "The rise of AI was a once in a lifetime opportunity," she said, "and the company had to put AI at the center of its entire product line." Three years later, the Santa Clara, uh, California-based company has nearly quadrupled in size, its market value rising from 90 billion to more than 335 billion.

• 20:33John Coogan?

  Despite a recent pullback, AMD's strategy of positioning itself at the center of the global AI race has paid off handsomely, making Su into a billionaire and her company into one of the only viable designers of powerful chips needed to power advanced AI models. In a market that has recently been completely dominated by Nvidia, Su is showing that there may be a place for a strong number two that can compete on price.

• 20:58Jordi Hays?

  Insane flow, by the way. Check this out.

• 21:00John Coogan?

  Yeah. "This is not the time to stay on the sidelines and worry, hey, am I overinvesting?" she said. "It's much more dangerous if you underinvest than if you overinvest, in my opinion." Let's go.

• 21:13John Coogan?

  I love it. As AI models like ChatGPT and Gemini become increasingly integrated into daily life, and as companies design thousands of enterprise software tools that rely on AI models, demand for inference functions is about to go up by a billion times, Wonks said last month. AMD has a strong line of inference computing chips, but has struggled to design chips powerful enough to compete with Nvidia in training. Is 200 million the new 100 million in luxury real estate? What do you think?

• 21:38Jordi Hays?

  Many people have been asking that.

• 21:40John Coogan?

  So there's a $200 million house in Indian Creek, a $250 million house in Bel Air, a $300 million house in Aspen, and a $205 million house in Palm Beach. A surge of ultra-rich buyers has pushed asking prices to new extremes, yet many headline-grabbing mega mansions languish on the market or trade for a fraction of their debut numbers just a decade ago. The 100 million price tag was still considered a new frontier for luxury real estate. The first nine-figure home sale occurred in 2011. By 2019, there had been about 20 sales recorded at that price point. Now, Real Estate Insiders say a new pricing benchmark is setting the tone for the high-end market: 200 million. There's going to be a massive wave of wealth created from the AI boom.

• 22:23Jordi Hays?

  And I would not want to be in the market for a single-family home within 20 square miles of OpenAI.

• 22:32John Coogan?

  There's like 40 people that are looking for houses in the $5 to $7 million range in North San Francisco, and there's none for sale because-

• 22:41Jordi Hays?

  All cash offers.

• 22:42John Coogan?

  I'm sure.

• 22:42Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 22:43John Coogan?

  From the liquidity.

• 22:44Jordi Hays?

  Yesterday, I resigned from TBE Labs slash Meta AI. I wasn't there for very long, but I think I got a few useful things done.

• 22:51John Coogan?

  Nice.

• 22:51Jordi Hays?

  It's an impressive group of people, and it's especially impressive that it got assembled as quickly as it did with such a high talent bar at a large company. Quote-unquote "founder mode" is real and good. I will certainly miss my coworkers there. I think now is an unusually high-leverage time to pursue ambitious new projects at the intersection of AI and other technologies. Please reach out to me if you're interested in that sort of thing. And I expect I will have something more detailed to share in not too long.

• 23:21John Coogan?

  Is that the sound of a thousand venture capitalists writing term sheets?

• 23:25Jordi Hays?

  Uh, Bernie Sanders.

• 23:26John Coogan?

  Okay, what's happening with Bernie?

• 23:28Jordi Hays?

  Was firing shots.

• 23:29John Coogan?

  Here are some of the most powerful AI oligarchs in the world. Enjoying a private dinner with a dictator who murders his own citizens with a bone saw. Whoa. Does anyone really believe they want to wipe out poverty or improve life for ordinary Americans? I don't. And he's sort of mugging Greg Brockman here because he leaves Greg Brockman's net worth. He doesn't even try and estimate it. He just says, question mark, question mark, question mark.

• 23:52Jordi Hays?

  Guess Bernie Sanders' age.

• 23:54John Coogan?

  Uh, 75.

• 23:55Jordi Hays?

  Guess again.

• 23:56John Coogan?

  78.

• 23:57Jordi Hays?

  Guess again.

• 23:58John Coogan?

  77.

• 23:59Jordi Hays?

  Guess again.

• 24:00John Coogan?

  80.

• 24:00Jordi Hays?

  Guess again.

• 24:01John Coogan?

  82.

• 24:01Jordi Hays?

  Guess again.

• 24:02John Coogan?

  I have no idea.

• 24:03Jordi Hays?

  84.

• 24:03John Coogan?

  84. Oh, he's up there.

• 24:05Jordi Hays?

  He's up there. So grandpa is pissed.

• 24:09John Coogan?

  He's pissed.

• 24:10Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I don't, I don't blame Bernie for being a little bit salty at this point because he's never on those charts of, of the best political traders in history, right?

• 24:20John Coogan?

  That's true.

• 24:20Jordi Hays?

  He's been having to sit there and watch Nancy Pelosi.

• 24:23John Coogan?

  Just run it up.

• 24:24Jordi Hays?

  The most insane run.

• 24:25John Coogan?

  And he's just missed out. The FOMO must be crazy. Every day he's opening up and Nancy's up another mill. And he's just sitting there like, ah, I missed it, I missed it.

• 24:33Jordi Hays?

  Luxury watch guy is concerned.

• 24:36John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 24:36Jordi Hays?

  Uh, about the Bitcoin sell off because he says there are going to be so many effing APs on the market facepalm.

• 24:43John Coogan?

  Oh, no.

• 24:45Jordi Hays?

  The cryptocurrency industry certainly has been known to enjoy an AP.

• 24:51John Coogan?

  Yeah. Google's genius, by not selling TPUs, Google allows Nvidia to maintain high GPU pricing, which in turn props up price of inference. Google then captures that inference price premium by running TPUs for inference on GCP. This is a conspiracy theory by Dave III and 30 Tepper.

• 25:10Jordi Hays?

  Just, just because you have two players in the market, like, doesn't mean you can sort of have a, you know, what happens in the soda industry, right? But effectively like.

• 25:18John Coogan?

  I was thinking about GLP-1 market.

• 25:20Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 25:20John Coogan?

  There's just a lot of demand, you don't need to cut prices.

• 25:23Jordi Hays?

  That, and you also understand that you can get in, there, there's, uh, can be reason not to get in a race to the bottom dynamic and effectively have a gentleman's agreement to keep prices in a certain range. Of course, that can go too far.

• 25:36John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 25:37Jordi Hays?

  Shower thought. Why is no one doing outbound for pizza? Hey, this is Gigi from Gigi's Pizza calling. You ordered last week. We have a pepperoni pizza ready and could deliver it in 10 minutes. Are you hungry? Tech sales guy says trillion dollar idea. And of course, it goes viral again. Some ideas and bangers are evergreen.

• 25:59John Coogan?

  What is this story of the FBI raising a bounty for a former Olympic snowboarder? Turned alleged drug kingpin?

• 26:07Jordi Hays?

  We love these stories. We covered this guy on the show before.

• 26:10John Coogan?

  Ryan James Wedding.

• 26:12Jordi Hays?

  He's married to the game.

• 26:14John Coogan?

  Is he?

• 26:16Jordi Hays?

  No, Ryan Wedding.

• 26:18John Coogan?

  Oh, Ryan Wedding, okay. Yes, he's married to the drug game, I suppose.

• 26:22Jordi Hays?

  He's a former Olympic snowboarder from Canada. He represented Canada at the 2002 Winter Olympics in men's parallel giant slalom. After the Olympics, it is alleged that he became a transnational drug trafficker and orchestrated the murders of various witnesses.

• 26:37John Coogan?

  Whoa.

• 26:38Jordi Hays?

  And he's only 44, so he's kind of just kind of hitting his stride. He was added earlier this year, March 6th, to the FBI 10 most wanted. So he's in the top 10.

• 26:50John Coogan?

  10. They have any idea where he is? I wonder how we'd hunt this guy down.

• 26:54Jordi Hays?

  And they're saying he's running one of the largest drug trafficking operations and is believed to be the dominant cocaine distributor in Canada. So from the Canadian Olympic team to the narcotics trafficking MVP status. Hard thing, the hard thing is when they talk about like because drug kingpins have just been the stars of so many different great television show, TV shows and movies. Pam Bondi said he's the modern day iteration of Pablo Escobar.

• 27:31John Coogan?

  Somebody was about to turn him in, but they hear that and they're like, oh, he's too cool to turn in. Can't do it. It's not worth it. I just gotta be friends with this guy. I'm living through history.

• 27:40Jordi Hays?

  Oh, wow. So after the 2002 Winter Olympics, he moved back to Vancouver and attended university. He got into bodybuilding and started working as a bouncer. After two years in university, he dropped out and began to speculate in real estate, which he financed by growing marijuana in a massive warehouse. He eventually expanded his operation and joined up with Iranian and Russian smugglers.

• 28:05John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 28:05Jordi Hays?

  And in 2010, he was convicted of attempting to buy drugs from a US government agent.

• 28:12John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 28:12Jordi Hays?

  And he went to prison for it.

• 28:14John Coogan?

  There are so many startups these days that are going after Palantir's market, competing in enterprise software, enterprise AI, forward deployed engineers. It's all a bunch of memes. Everyone's, everyone's keying off of the, the Palantir strategy. I think if you're trying to play in that market, you gotta take down a most wanted fugitive.

• 28:34Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 28:35John Coogan?

  You get the 15 million, that's your seed round, and you use this as marketing. The company that finds this guy, I'm gonna believe that your model's pretty good. Whatever you, whatever you're doing, if you, if you can find this guy, I'm gonna be like, yeah, yeah, that's enough of an eval for me. You pass the benchmarks. I don't care your MML, you tell me, how many fugitives have you checked off the FBI top 10 most wanted list? Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for listening. Thanks for hanging out. We love you and we'll see you on Monday.

• 29:05Jordi Hays?

  Have a fantastic weekend.

• 29:07John Coogan?

  Have a great weekend. Goodbye.