GPT-5.2 Reactions, Jacob Elordi vs AI, Disney x OpenAI Deal Breakdown | Diet TBPN

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Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02John Coogan?

  Death Star post, now it makes sense. It all makes sense. It wasn't a vague post.

• 0:06Jordi Hays?

  It was just early.

• 0:07John Coogan?

  A preview, a deal that would take shape four months later, right? That's what was happening. Sam Altman, of course, what was this on GPT-5 day, August 6th? He posted a picture of the Death Star rising on the horizon. Very confusing post at the time. Now we understand.

• 0:24Jordi Hays?

  Now we get it.

• 0:24John Coogan?

  He was saying, hey, one day, we're gonna have rights to Star Wars properties through this deal with this.

• 0:31Jordi Hays?

  Darth, of course. Darth Sama.

• 0:32John Coogan?

  People did not like this post at the time.

• 0:34Jordi Hays?

  And the timing, the timing was really funny.

• 0:36John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 0:36Jordi Hays?

  It implied that they were about to release something, you know, so all powerful.

• 0:42John Coogan?

  Yeah, it was easy to read it that way.

• 0:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 0:44John Coogan?

  You could also read it as like, maybe they're going on the offensive against the, the Death Star, the Empire, which is Google. They're gonna attack Google. There were a number of different ways to, to, to read into it, but it was.

• 0:55Jordi Hays?

  It felt.

• 0:56John Coogan?

  Confusing.

• 0:57Jordi Hays?

  It was confusing and then, and then it, and then it was, I feel like people were somewhat let down.

• 1:01John Coogan?

  We had a bunch of different takes on it. We think it makes sense now, but now, you know, it's even more clear with the Disney deal. But you wrote about the Disney deal, you dug into the deal and you kind of crystallized your take. So take me through it.

• 1:12Jordi Hays?

  I wrote 127 days. That's the gap between Sam's, the Star Wars Death Star vague post and yesterday's announcement that Disney is investing $1 billion into OpenAI and giving them a three-year license that allows users to generate AI photos and videos of the most popular 200 Disney characters. Most notably, OpenAI has guaranteed a one-year exclusive on the IP. And while the post and the deal are probably not connected, I think it's funny to imagine that they are. Right before the deal was announced, Disney sent Google a cease and desist letter claiming Google had been violating Disney's intellectual property by allowing users to generate a variety of Disney characters. Many people outside tech seem shocked that Disney would license their IP in the first place, given their history ruthlessly protecting it. There's a number of examples of Disney coming after.

• 1:55Jordi Hays?

  Kids birthday parties, or at least that's how they positioned it. Of course,

• 1:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:58Jordi Hays?

  These are businesses effectively using Disney characters to

• 2:01John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 2:02Jordi Hays?

  monetize.

• 2:03John Coogan?

  I read your draft and I was like, wait, they sued a child for having a Disney themed birthday party?

• 2:07Jordi Hays?

  There's two notable examples.

• 2:09John Coogan?

  Yeah, it was a little nuanced.

• 2:10Jordi Hays?

  One is coming after basically a birthday party service.

• 2:13John Coogan?

  Company, like a business that sells,

• 2:15Jordi Hays?

  And

• 2:16John Coogan?

  we will do your birthday party. And then they were selling, and it'll be princess themed.

• 2:20Jordi Hays?

  Well, so what they, it wouldn't, they wouldn't directly call the characters that you could like rent

• 2:24John Coogan?

  Hmm.

• 2:25Jordi Hays?

  the, the same names. It wasn't like Elsa.

• 2:28John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 2:28Jordi Hays?

  But

• 2:29John Coogan?

  But it was clearly

• 2:29Jordi Hays?

  In the reviews, what Disney noted in the reviews, people would call the characters by the Disney name.

• 2:34John Coogan?

  Okay, so clearly thinking it was like

• 2:36Jordi Hays?

  And there was also a story of, of a father who like wanted to do a Spider-Man tombstone for his like very young son that passed.

• 2:44John Coogan?

  And

• 2:44Jordi Hays?

  Rough. And I think it was the, um, effectively got blocked. It wasn't necessarily directly by Disney, but anyways, Disney has longstanding policy of, of not letting other people

• 2:54John Coogan?

  Such a PR nightmare. If your legal team comes to you and says like, we want to sue a dead person, like tell them like, hey, back off.

• 3:00Jordi Hays?

  It was just like, it wasn't a lawsuit.

• 3:02John Coogan?

  Or maybe it was a tombstone company.

• 3:03Jordi Hays?

  They were just saying like, no, you can't make a Spider-Man tombstone. Many people outside of tech seem shocked that Disney would license their IP, but Bob Iger knows that AI-generated Disney will happen with or without the company's blessing. So partnering with OpenAI today while setting up negotiations with Google and other players makes a lot of sense. Again, uh, I, I just expect this like cease and desist is the start of a negotiation process in order to get the same type of IP and capability ultimately into Gemini.

• 3:29John Coogan?

  But in 2027, not in 2026.

• 3:31Jordi Hays?

  Well, and, and maybe not, right? Like one question I have is they have a one-year exclusive. After that period, does Disney say, okay, you can keep having the exclusive, but you need to pay us like a billion dollars a year?

• 3:41John Coogan?

  And at least Google's at the table negotiating. Is that what you mean?

• 3:44Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, exactly. The strategic significance of the steal for OpenAI has been broadly underappreciated, mainly because for a company that frequently talks in the trillions, Disney's investment, a paltry one billion, just isn't enough to turn heads. But the advantage this deal gives OpenAI from a product and distribution standpoint is extremely significant. OpenAI has 20 to 30 million paid users out of a total of 900 million globally. Disney, on the other hand, had 140 million people visit Disney parks in the last year and 128 million paid subscribers to Disney Plus. If you're an adult, spending thousands of dollars to take your kids to Disneyland or a Disney Plus subscriber, surely you'll pay an incremental amount to OpenAI to extend and personalize your Disney experience. As a parent, some of the most magical moments with AI that I've had are simply generally,

• 4:26Jordi Hays?

  I've talked about this before, I take a real photo of me and my son and I turn it

• 4:30John Coogan?

  Go dinosaur mode.

• 4:31Jordi Hays?

  generic design source.

• 4:32John Coogan?

  We know, dinosaurs.

• 4:33Jordi Hays?

  Dino mode. It really brings us both a lot of joy.

• 4:36John Coogan?

  I really want to see one of these photos.

• 4:37Jordi Hays?

  It's like, it's his reaction to the picture that I'm getting joy from because he just like absolutely loves it.

• 4:43John Coogan?

  I had a similar experience where I would, I would like take a picture of like, you know, we'd create a scene of toys and then we'd say like, make these Lego versions of this or something. But the models got so good at a certain point that I was just like, okay, like I just, I made his toys look like toys and it just looks exactly like what I made. It's like, I just, I need to just take a photo. I need like more creativity to come up with something remarkable.

• 5:06Jordi Hays?

  My household is not into the Disney world yet.

• 5:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 5:10Jordi Hays?

  The kids are just young.

• 5:11John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 5:11Jordi Hays?

  But I can imagine how excited if you're a Frozen super fan and Avengers super fan, being able to put yourself, your kids into their world, I think is going to be pretty exciting. So having a license to generate high quality images and videos of 200 of these characters creates a temporary but very real differentiation for tons of current and future ChatGPT users. Knowing Sam and Josh, they've likely negotiated to get Sora ChatGPT broad exposure across Disney properties, both online and offline. And we already know that select Sora videos will be featured in Disney Plus. I think they're going to be taking, really making sure they're hand selecting those because.

• 5:48John Coogan?

  I wonder what that means. I wonder if that means the Apple TV app or the Disney Plus app on the phone. On an iPad, on a phone, it feels a little bit more natural. Just in terms of the Star Wars property, like there's, there are the original Star Wars films and then there's Young Jedi Adventures, which is Star Wars for kids, the, you know, there's even less violence, it's more G rated than a PG 13 rated. Even with Bluey, very popular children's show on Disney, on Disney Plus, there are full episodes that are like, a full episode might be, I want to say like eight minutes long, but then there's mini-sodes that are even shorter. So like the short formification is happening within the Disney app already, but I think a lot of parents would have. A sort of negative reaction to just.

• 6:34Jordi Hays?

  A feed.

• 6:34John Coogan?

  A feed, yeah, an endless scrolling feed of short form Sora content. That's going to be really tricky. It needs, it needs a twist, it needs curation. They said that there's already going to be curation, but I wonder how that's going to roll out.

• 6:46Jordi Hays?

  Curation, but it could still very well be infinite.

• 6:49John Coogan?

  You could essentially have like a, like a film festival that's running and kids submit their generations and then those.

• 6:56Jordi Hays?

  Film festival of seven second videos. I'm sure Hollywood will love that.

• 7:01John Coogan?

  Back in, back in the Vine days, like the, the, the, the creative skill ceiling was incredible.

• 7:07Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 7:07John Coogan?

  People were doing remarkable, remarkable things with that. I still believe that there's some really interesting things that you can do with generative systems, with generative AI. And I, and I imagine that we will see some cool stuff come out of the Disney partnership, but.

• 7:20Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 7:20John Coogan?

  Um, I don't know that I'd want a kid sitting there watching endless slop.

• 7:24Jordi Hays?

  I finished it out by saying my long held assumption is that over time, everyday consumers won't pay for L L Ms. There will be great ad and commerce supported L M's that provide the monetization to serve great models. But OpenAI's challenge is that even with future Hall of Famers like Fijisimo and Denise Dresser on board. Denise is of course the former CEO of Slack, who's now the C R O at OpenAI. They can't massively scale monetization of the free product overnight. They can't just say, hey, chat G P T agent.

• 7:50John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 7:50Jordi Hays?

  Create a massive ad platform. Don't make mistakes. I don't expect those business lines to really begin ramping until the second half of next year, and they need to show continued revenue growth now. Hard to think of a better time for this deal to get done than 11 days into OpenAI's code red. And right as Sora was about to fall out of the app stores top 25. Will the functionality be immediately abused? Yes. Will it create uncomfortable moments for Disney's leadership? Yes. Is it a smart move for Disney? Yes. Will OpenAI have to shell out billions to maintain exclusive access over the long run? Yes.

• 8:19John Coogan?

  I want to debate you on this idea that it will be abused immediately. I think it's actually really, really hard to abuse these systems. Oh, jailbreak it, I got it to say something crazy like that's like, it's just like, it seems like a thing of the past.

• 8:31Jordi Hays?

  I just, I just trust that the internet immediately will figure out if you have.

• 8:36John Coogan?

  Yes, but it'll be niche.

• 8:37Jordi Hays?

  Hundreds of millions of people trying to jailbreak it, they will pull it off.

• 8:39John Coogan?

  Of course, but.

• 8:40Jordi Hays?

  The other thing that will happen is people using different models.

• 8:44John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 8:44Jordi Hays?

  That are like already don't have the same guard, guardrails. And making it look like they're Sora outputs, even though they're insane.

• 8:52John Coogan?

  Oh, totally, totally, totally.

• 8:53Jordi Hays?

  Again, I'm just saying like-

• 8:54John Coogan?

  Open source model that's completely unrestricted, you do something crazy and then you throw the Sora watermark on it just to take a shot at Sam and-

• 9:03Jordi Hays?

  Stick it to Bob and Sam.

• 9:04John Coogan?

  Little sigh up. What do you think Tyler?

• 9:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, I was gonna agree with Shorty. Like, I think-

• 9:08John Coogan?

  Hey, what's this? What's this?

• 9:11Speaker 02

  Oh, yeah. I've just been, you know, I got a double jaw surgery.

• 9:14John Coogan?

  Double jaw surgery.

• 9:15Jordi Hays?

  And a little bone smashing?

• 9:16Speaker 02

  I've been bone smashing a bit, yeah. Just trying to get my looks-

• 9:18John Coogan?

  You're looking fantastic. This is remarkable. I really, I really can't- hats off to the production team. This is a fantastic new feature to allow Tyler to look like the absolute-

• 9:29Speaker 02

  Look like how I do every day.

• 9:30John Coogan?

  Yes, how you do every day. Sheesh.

• 9:32Speaker 02

  I was gonna say, like, yeah, day one, there's gonna be people on X that, like, easily jailbreak it. I can't-

• 9:37John Coogan?

  I can't take you seriously.

• 9:39Jordi Hays?

  Just look at us.

• 9:40Speaker 02

  And then, and then they're just gonna post it and then it's gonna go super viral and then you'll have parents.

• 9:46John Coogan?

  Chad ID.

• 9:47Jordi Hays?

  No, it says Chad ID, not Chad Podcast.

• 9:49John Coogan?

  Tell me your actual take.

• 9:50Speaker 02

  Okay, yeah, so, so, I think, like, day one-

• 9:53John Coogan?

  Oh, he's back.

• 9:54Speaker 02

  Oh, what, what, what happened?

• 9:58Speaker 02

  Day one-

• 9:59John Coogan?

  There we go. There we go.

• 10:02Speaker 02

  Okay, day one, you have people who jailbreak it, even if it's like one person, then it goes super viral on X and then it's like, oh, Mickey Mouse, like, shooting a gun.

• 10:09John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 10:10Speaker 02

  And then it goes viral, parents see it, and they're like, okay, my kids aren't gonna be on this because-

• 10:13John Coogan?

  Oh.

• 10:14Speaker 02

  Even if it's like falsely, like, you're gonna have a ton of backlash where-

• 10:15John Coogan?

  Could be bad backlash.

• 10:16Speaker 02

  Goes super viral on CBS News or whatever.

• 10:18John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 10:19Jordi Hays?

  Nah, I don't buy that. I think it will be very magical and I think that they'll immediately be getting shared in family group chats between friends and I think we're maybe underestimate the adult Disney audience as well.

• 10:34John Coogan?

  It could go two ways, adult Disney.

• 10:38Jordi Hays?

  Okay, easy, John.

• 10:39John Coogan?

  Where do you think the line is? So you think that they would, whenever this rolls out, maybe it's already out, it might be out soon, but let's just assume it rolls out January, you go to Sora, you can generate, you know, Luke Skywalker fighting with Spider-Man, because those are two Disney properties. Can you have Luke Skywalker cut Spider-Man's arm off? Because Luke Skywalker does cut off people's arms in the PG 13 rated Star Wars.

• 11:07Jordi Hays?

  I think.

• 11:08John Coogan?

  Spider-Man does not ever get cut. He never gets his arm cut off because he's more of a PG character. And I'm, and I'm just wondering like, where is the line for the Disney execs? Like, where would they draw the line? How do they even think about a framework for holding, upholding the brand?

• 11:23Jordi Hays?

  I think we'll know it when we see it. It'd be a funny scenario where they only allow violence on Warner Brothers characters.

• 11:30John Coogan?

  They don't have the rights, but it's just like, oh yeah, like you can, well, they do that in Hollywood. There's some, there's some actors who have it in their contracts that they never will lose a fistfight, basically. They'll say like, you know, you can cast me in this movie, but if we're, if I'm fighting up as somebody, I don't lose, we can tie, basically. So you know how you watch a lot of like Jason Statham and The Rock and like Fast and Furious and they're like bashing each other through walls for like five minutes? Like this crazy action scene? And then at the end, you're like, oh, and like neither of them won? It's like, that's because it's in the contract. They don't want to be, they don't want to be depicted as like losers.

• 12:03Jordi Hays?

  They don't want to be Ora-farmed.

• 12:03John Coogan?

  They don't want to be Ora-farmed, exactly. I got roasted by the anti-AI crowd for suggesting that IP holders might want their characters in Sora. They insisted that real entertainment companies would never willingly allow their characters to be used in AI slop. Two months later, how the times have changed. I completely agree with this take. I think it is interesting how there is just the reality that if you hold IP, you need to exist in the world. You need to exist a lot. You can't just stay on the shelf. You can't be the Humphrey Bogart. And yesterday, when, when Dylan from Puck was here, I, he was mentioning a bunch of old Hollywood references and I was laughing to myself because I know you have not seen

• 12:45John Coogan?

  Casablanca and you have no idea what he means by get on the plane or Rosebud or any of these references.

• 12:54Jordi Hays?

  Has anyone else noticed VO3 has no IP constraints? Prompt Mickey Mouse welcoming you to Disney. Look at this, John. This was going on back June 16.

• 13:02John Coogan?

  What's crazy is that this somehow looks, this, this looked so good at the time and I was like, oh, it's over. It's so over. And yet this now, looking back, this looks washed out. It doesn't have, it's like overly saturated or something.

• 13:17Jordi Hays?

  It looks like a green screen?

• 13:18John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 13:19Jordi Hays?

  Weirdly?

• 13:19John Coogan?

  It doesn't actually look that good to me anymore. And it's because the, the goalposts have moved as they always do. Do you want to hear, do you want to hear my full movie?

• 13:27Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 13:28John Coogan?

  This is the full list, you can pick and, and Tyler, you can play along too. First up, The Godfather. Have you seen it?

• 13:36John Coogan?

  No. Wow. Okay. Taxi Driver.

• 13:38Jordi Hays?

  Never heard of it.

• 13:41John Coogan?

  Star Wars. You've seen Star Wars.

• 13:43Jordi Hays?

  Seen at least a couple.

• 13:45John Coogan?

  Uh, Raging Bull.

• 13:46Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 13:46John Coogan?

  Scarface.

• 13:47Jordi Hays?

  Yes.

• 13:48John Coogan?

  You've actually seen Scarface?

• 13:49Jordi Hays?

  Yes.

• 13:49John Coogan?

  Uh, Full Metal Jacket.

• 13:50Jordi Hays?

  But I didn't study it. I watched it, but I didn't, I didn't take notes.

• 13:53John Coogan?

  Full Metal Jacket.

• 13:54Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 13:54John Coogan?

  Die Hard.

• 13:56Jordi Hays?

  Maybe like 10 years ago.

• 13:58John Coogan?

  You gotta see Die Hard. Goodfellas.

• 14:01Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 14:01John Coogan?

  You gotta watch Goodfellas. This is so good. Reservoir Dogs.

• 14:06Jordi Hays?

  Hmm, maybe.

• 14:08John Coogan?

  Uh, Pulp Fiction.

• 14:09Jordi Hays?

  Seen it.

• 14:10John Coogan?

  Okay. Heat.

• 14:10Jordi Hays?

  Heard of it, haven't seen it.

• 14:12John Coogan?

  Casino.

• 14:13Jordi Hays?

  Never heard of it.

• 14:15John Coogan?

  Braveheart.

• 14:15Jordi Hays?

  Uh, heard of it, haven't seen it.

• 14:17John Coogan?

  You've never seen Braveheart? Wow. Okay. Uh, Hackers.

• 14:22Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 14:22John Coogan?

  Apollo 13.

• 14:24Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 14:24John Coogan?

  Contact.

• 14:26Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 14:26John Coogan?

  The Fifth Element.

• 14:27Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 14:28John Coogan?

  Saving Private Ryan.

• 14:31Jordi Hays?

  No.

• 14:31John Coogan?

  You haven't seen Saving Private Ryan? Wow.

• 14:34Jordi Hays?

  I have seen John Wick. Funny story, I was on a flight back from London.

• 14:38John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 14:38Jordi Hays?

  And it was like effectively 3am. Whole plane's dark.

• 14:42John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 14:42Jordi Hays?

  And Keanu Reeves just walks by my seat.

• 14:46John Coogan?

  Wait, in the backseat of a plane?

• 14:48Jordi Hays?

  Yes.

• 14:48John Coogan?

  That's wild.

• 14:50Jordi Hays?

  Just walks by and it was like.

• 14:51John Coogan?

  Wait, and you were watching John Wick on the?

• 14:53Jordi Hays?

  No, I wasn't.

• 14:53John Coogan?

  Oh, okay.

• 14:54Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. But he, he walks by and imagine seeing like Keanu, like you're just, you're on an overnight flight. It's dark in the plane and he just like walks by, I think he was using the restroom. And I did I ended up watching it after that.

• 15:06John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 15:06Jordi Hays?

  Uh, to be to be fully immersed. Uh, more importantly, hero thousand presents says 5.2. How about 5.2 cold ones with the boys? It's a beautiful Thursday night, folks.

• 15:17John Coogan?

  It's hilarious.

• 15:18Jordi Hays?

  This latest model is state of the art on beer bench, which is if I crack it open, it makes a fizzy sound and I go, hell, yeah, very good. GPT 5.2 also knows exactly which are the best Paul McCartney songs and it can write a poem in Spanish as good as the median Pablo Neruda poem.

• 15:37John Coogan?

  Tyler Cowen loves loves the GPT models. He's obsessed.

• 15:41Jordi Hays?

  The most obsessed and I yet I've never seen somebody make the claim that he was one shot.

• 15:45John Coogan?

  That's true. That's true.

• 15:46Jordi Hays?

  Just pretty.

• 15:47John Coogan?

  He's he's he's using responsibly. He's using responsibly. So, uh, it it does feel like OpenAI is a little bit of the the coming out of the trough of disillusionment potentially, you know? The vibes have been really bad with the 1.4 trillion, but the global economy has not collapsed and the market is rallying and there were in fact not an Enron scenario. None of the big tech companies blew up like we we've moved on. Now, maybe it happens, but in general, it seems like, you know, expectations have sort of reset and now we're going into 2026. It's kind of a new game. OpenAI still has a really dominant consumer business and it what looks like it's shaping up to be an oligopoly in the enterprise side or the B2B side.

• 16:31John Coogan?

  Nothing is a five alarm fire. They're in the code red, but it feels like they will emerge stronger from it. The big question is, how will Sam Altman be perceived? Will he be one of the greatest founders of all time, founder CEOs? And I was trying to benchmark him. Let's say that let's say that he he, you know, lands the plane, gets out of the code red, Baja blasts his way into the public markets and and he winds up, you know, being this founder CEO of a multi trillion dollar, uh, consumer tech company. He's in the mag seven. It's be it's the mag eight. Uh, how will he be remembered? For most CEO, founder CEOs, if they get the company out into the public markets at a trillion dollars or something

• 17:12John Coogan?

  like that, um, they typically own a ton. Steve Jobs is notably at various times, uh, not a major shareholder. Uh, at one point, he owned five and a half million shares out of almost a billion shares. So he had half a percent or 0.6% in 2011. Bill Gates, on the other hand. Absolute.

• 17:34Jordi Hays?

  An absolute dog.

• 17:36John Coogan?

  Uh, thirteen point seven percent ownership of Microsoft. Uh, Jeff Bezos is at fourteen percent with Amazon. Jensen is at three point seven percent, three point seven seven percent of Nvidia. Elon Musk, almost twenty percent at Tesla, nineteen point seven percent. Meta.

• 17:52Jordi Hays?

  Well, it's interesting to think.

• 17:54John Coogan?

  At thirteen point five.

• 17:55Jordi Hays?

  Given, given how much dilution OpenAI has had to take in all the shareholders.

• 18:01John Coogan?

  Starting as a nonprofit.

• 18:02Jordi Hays?

  There's, well, that, but there's a world where if the company had just been formed as a C corp.

• 18:06John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 18:07Jordi Hays?

  Back in the day in twenty fifteen and they had just raised a bunch of.

• 18:10John Coogan?

  Rounds.

• 18:11Jordi Hays?

  Rounds back to back to back and there was a bunch of co-founders initially. Would Sam actually have, it's rumored what he's going to get, something like seven percent was the proposal?

• 18:18John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 18:19Jordi Hays?

  Would he have, would he have less than that in that scenario? I don't think, I don't think in the fullness this will end up working out that badly for Sam.

• 18:27John Coogan?

  The jump to reasoning models will be studied for years. They are still wildly, wildly underrated. Arc AGI one has been out for six years. GPT five point two is a five order of magnitude scale up and yet it still lands at twelve percent. Add a bit of reasoning and performance immediately jumps. And so you can see the Arc AGI one leaderboard. GPT five point two is only a twelve percent, but when you get to low, medium, high, extra high over in the reasoning models or you switch to the pro models, uh, you're getting up to ninety percent on Arc AGI. Of course, the, the, the test of, that any human can do and yet AI has struggled with for a long time.

• 19:12John Coogan?

  Not for long. AI is starting to, uh, make headroom or make headway on the Arc AGI leaderboard. Grok four, of course, is also doing well. I'm excited to, uh, to see what happens with Arc AGI V three. It feels like we're not even showing those scores yet because I think that none of the models are scoring at all yet. They're not even finishing. Um, and I think it's, uh, it's, it's an optimization problem.

• 19:38Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 19:38John Coogan?

  The least number of moves.

• 19:40Jordi Hays?

  Oracle is a train wreck. How did they not disclose these delays on the call two days ago? And Bloomberg is reporting that Oracle delays some data center projects for OpenAI to twenty twenty eight. Oracle has pushed back the completion dates for some of the data centers it's developing for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027. Delays are largely due to labor and material shortages, said the people, asking not to be identified. Oracle has been working to deliver over on a $300 billion contract to supply the computing power necessary to train and run OpenAI's models since it was inked this summer. Even with the delays, the timelines for the project in the US remain ambitious for sites that are set to become some of the largest in the world. Oracle was basically saying like, "We're gonna build AWS in two years." And

• 20:21Jordi Hays?

  that just felt like, you know, applaud the sort of ambition, but I think some of these delays, labor shortages, et cetera, are, were predictable. Bloomberg says, "Our take on Oracle's massive bet on AI, Oracle's AI bet has fast become a bubble barometer." A little bub talk. Oracle spokesperson said in a statement that the company remained confident in its ability to meet its obligations and future expansion plans. "There have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments, and all milestones remain on track." Meanwhile, Apollo, according to Compound 248, casually predicting zero returns to the

• 21:01Jordi Hays?

  S&P 500 over the coming decade. The historical relationship between the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio and the subsequent 10-year annualized returns show that investors should expect to get zero return in the S&P 500 over the coming decade. They have a chart below. They're like, "Hey, can we interest you in some private credit opportunities?" Where...

• 21:24John Coogan?

  Or you know the other option. What's the other thing you want to invest in when the stock market isn't looking so good?

• 21:31Jordi Hays?

  Putts?

• 21:32John Coogan?

  Land!

• 21:33Jordi Hays?

  I've talked about this. Land, I think, is the most criminally underrated asset. Nobody wants to make steady returns, land maxing. They want to, they want to hit the thousand X.

• 21:43John Coogan?

  Exactly.

• 21:44Jordi Hays?

  Meme coin. They want to hit the 1% polymarket, whatever it is.

• 21:48John Coogan?

  Timeline has been in turmoil over Klein. Some posts are getting deleted, so I don't even know if we're gonna be able to pull these up, but...

• 21:55Jordi Hays?

  Here's what happened.

• 21:56John Coogan?

  Yeah, break it down.

• 21:57Jordi Hays?

  Somebody at Klein commented on a picture from a hackathon.

• 22:02John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 22:03Jordi Hays?

  And said, "Imagine the smell."

• 22:04John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 22:05Jordi Hays?

  People thought he was making, they thought it was like a racist comment.

• 22:08John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 22:09Jordi Hays?

  People started piling on.

• 22:10John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 22:11Jordi Hays?

  The CEO initially defended him and said, "I'm..." Like, I know, I can vouch for this guy.

• 22:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 22:18Jordi Hays?

  He's, he's, he's fine. People kept piling on. The CEO ended up turning around and said, actually, we've let this guy go.

• 22:25John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 22:26Jordi Hays?

  And then now the CEO is getting even more, more hate on, from letting the guy go. And then now he's deleting the posts and so, and so maybe the guy, maybe he ends up rehiring. It feels like damage is pretty done at this point. It'd be hard to imagine him saying, like, going back and saying, like, oh, I'm actually going to rejoin.

• 22:47John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 22:47Jordi Hays?

  The team that just let him go.

• 22:48John Coogan?

  I have a, I have a brief screenshot saved a little bit. I think I can, I think I can read it. Some of it. This is the CEO of Klein says, "A few days ago, a tweet from our head of AI offended a lot of people." And it definitely offended a lot of people. There's an article in the Hindustan Times in India. Like, this is like newsworthy.

• 23:07Jordi Hays?

  Global.

• 23:07John Coogan?

  In India. "While I don't believe his original tweet was attended, intended to be offensive, his response refusing to apologize does not reflect my position or Klein's. We recognize this caused real pain and that deserves blah blah blah." Lulu says, "This stinks." She's not a fan of it.

• 23:26Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. She says, "Re-coms mistakes. Everyone makes them. Sometimes things fall flat. It's happened to me and it also happens to people much smarter."

• 23:32John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 23:33Jordi Hays?

  "But betraying people or principles is in a different category. It's more preventable and less excusable. Cowardice doesn't happen by accident. In the case of Smellgate, it could be argued that Posh made the first kind of mistake overlooking how the joke could be interpreted. But then the CEO inarguably made the second kind of mistake, and that one, to me, is much worse." Nat Elyason posted, a friend of the show, I'm not sure if he's in the chat today, said, "Considering the unanimous reaction to the CEO's post saying that he will fight, that they let go of the engineer." Nat says, will he fire himself now? Only seems fair.

• 24:10John Coogan?

  It's just the entire company gets fired.

• 24:13Jordi Hays?

  Fireception.

• 24:13John Coogan?

  Just everyone gets fired? No. The funny thing is that the only reason I know about this joke is from a bunch of Indian friends who who seem to have like been making it on anonymous accounts years ago in some sort of funny attempt to like reclaim the the formerly racist joke, but.

• 24:31Jordi Hays?

  Lulu says, when you cave to the mob instead of standing by your employee, now people are more mad at you than before. And she quotes, your worst sin is that you have destroyed and betrayed yourself for nothing. Trump, in an interview yesterday, said that he would consider eliminating taxes on gambling winnings.

• 24:49John Coogan?

  This is so crazy.

• 24:50Jordi Hays?

  Frank says prediction markets be like, never mind, it is gambling.

• 24:53John Coogan?

  It is gambling because they always use trade. They always use like it's not it's not bat. You trade.

• 24:59Jordi Hays?

  Trade on future.

• 25:00John Coogan?

  Trade trade on sports, trading on this. This this just feels like a whole series of of people. It's like Trump likes being edgy and funny, making jokes, and he says, I'd consider it. And then watcher guru takes it and turns it into a viral thing. And then somebody dunks on it and they get viral points and it it all feels deeply unserious and and not really like it's going to reshape the market anytime soon.

• 25:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I think I think a lot of people would hope that he'd be like, no, we're not going to create tax incentivized gambling in this country. But he didn't.

• 25:34John Coogan?

  Stranger things have happened.

• 25:35Jordi Hays?

  Stranger things have happened.

• 25:36John Coogan?

  Scoop OpenAI CEO Sam Altman gathered news leaders for lunch in New York City on Monday. He told them enterprise AI will be a massive priority for OpenAI in 2026. And Greg Brockman says, yeah, enterprise AI is going to be a huge theme for 2026. What's.

• 25:54Jordi Hays?

  And this tracks with hiring Slack CEO as CRO.

• 25:58John Coogan?

  Totally, yeah.

• 25:59Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the question is, what what what does this actually look like? Right? I think a lot of people are using ChatGPT at work. They're using a variety of LLMs.

• 26:10John Coogan?

  Does it mean they're going after Harvey? That's the big question. Harvey seems to be doing really well and I think of law firms as enterprises and I think of law firms as potential targets for an OpenAI enterprise plan. Am I crazy?

• 26:25Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I don't think you're crazy. The last quarter, I rolled out Microsoft Copilot to 4,000 employees. Thirty dollars per seat per month, 1.4 million annually. I call it digital transformation. The board loved that phrase. They approved it in 11 minutes. No one asked what it would actually do, including me. I told everyone it would 10x productivity. That's not a real number, but it sounds like one. HR asked how we'd measure the 10x. I'd said we'd leverage analytics dashboards. They stopped asking. Three months later, I checked the usage reports. Forty-seven people had opened it. Twelve had used it more than once. One of them was me. I used it to summarize an email I could have read in 30 seconds. It took 45 seconds, plus the time it took to fix the hallucinations.

• 27:06Jordi Hays?

  But I called it a pilot success. Success means a pilot didn't visibly fail. The CFO asked about ROI. I showed him a graph. The graph went up and to the right. It measured AI enablement. I made that metric up. He nodded approvingly. We're AI-enabled now. I don't know what that means, but it's in our investor deck. A senior developer asked why we didn't use Cloudera ChatGPT. I said we needed enterprise-grade security. He asked what that meant. I said compliance. He asked which compliance. I said all of them. He looked skeptical. I scheduled him for a career development conversation. He stopped asking questions. Microsoft sent a case study team. They wanted us to feature, they wanted to feature us as a success story. I told them we saved 40,000 hours. I calculated that

• 27:49Jordi Hays?

  number by multiplying employees by a number I made up. They didn't verify it. They never do. Now we're on Microsoft's website. Global enterprise achieves 40,000 hours of productivity gains with Copilot. The CEO shared it on LinkedIn. He got 3,000 likes. He's never used Copilot. None of the executives have. We have an exemption. Strategic focus requires minimal digital distraction. I wrote that policy. The licenses renew next month. I'm requesting an expansion. 5,000 more seats. We haven't used the first 4,000, but this time we'll drive adoption. Adoption means mandatory training. Training means a 45-minute webinar no one watches, but completion must be tracked. Completion is a metric. Metrics go in dashboards. Dashboards go in board presentations. Board presentations get me

• 28:33Jordi Hays?

  promoted. I'll be SVP by Q3. I still don't know what Copilot does, but I know what it's for. It's for showing we're investing in AI. Investment means spending. Spending means commitment. Commitment means we're serious about the future. The future is whatever I say it is, as long as the graph goes up and to the right. Jacob Allorty says he has no tolerance for AI and finds the whole conversation around it so effing boring. He would not like the show. He says, "I would much rather kiss on the beach and read a novel and be sunburnt." Most, most pick-me moment of-

• 29:09John Coogan?

  It's a crazy line.

• 29:10Jordi Hays?

  Of the year?

• 29:11John Coogan?

  It's a crazy line.

• 29:12Jordi Hays?

  91,000 people agree.

• 29:15John Coogan?

  Technical deep learning tutorials says, "Yo Jacob, come on my live tomorrow. We're going to be review this paper. It's almost as good as the stuff you mentioned. See you tomorrow, buddy." And it's, it's the surprising effect of negative reinforcement in LLM reasoning.

• 29:30Jordi Hays?

  Suck says, "God blessed us again. Shocker. A thousand-year American empire. Major deposit of rare earth and critical minerals has been uncovered in Utah, which the Wall Street Journal calls the most significant critical mineral reserve in the US." We did it again.

• 29:44John Coogan?

  We did it again.

• 29:44Jordi Hays?

  If you're a nation without, you know, a lot of critical minerals, it's probably a skill issue. You thought this week was Christmas week?

• 29:52John Coogan?

  We're just getting started.

• 29:53Jordi Hays?

  We're just getting started. We hope you have an incredible weekend. Thank you for being with us this week. We'll see you soon.

• 29:58John Coogan?

  Goodbye.