The Situation in Brazil is Absolutely Insane | The Tom Bilyeu Show

Hey everybody, Tom Bilyeu here. On today’s episode of The Tom Bilyeu Show, we’re taking a raw look at the state of global politics, booming AI innovation, and what it all means for the future of democracy and business. From the escalating chaos in Brazil’s elections to mounting legal battles playing out across the US, we’ll break down whether political lawfare is pushing us toward an era of iron-fisted rule—or if there’s a way to break the cycle before it’s too late. We’ll also take a hard look at the economic fallout in China’s stock markets and ask whether the AI bubble is already slowly deflating here at home, threatening investors and everyday workers alike. Are we headed for a slow correction or a violent crash, and what business lessons can we take from the warning signs overseas? But it’s not all doom and gloom: this episode dives into the groundbreaking scientific breakthroughs being made by AI right now, with stunning advances in cancer treatment, drug discovery, and mathematics that could fundamentally reshape what’s possible for human health and technology. Are we witnessing the beginnings of a new golden age, or staring down an existential cliff? Plus, we’ll explore how global instability is driving governments to urge citizens to be prepared for emergencies—and what the rise of American innovation in manufacturing and computing could mean for your business, your career, and your future. Stay tuned as we challenge the status quo, reveal the undercurrents shaping the next decade, and get brutally honest about what it will take not just to survive, but to thrive. This is an episode you don’t want to miss. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=Live%20Masterclass&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=evergreen Follow Me: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Thank you to our sponsors: Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to launch your business starting at $0 + state fees: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial. Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 1:57Tom Bilyeu?

  The situation in Brazil is absolutely insane and is a grim glimpse into our own future. If we do not turn things around. The U.S. just issued an ominous warning to the Middle East about what's coming after the midterms. The ongoing crash in the Chinese stock market is brutal and may be an important signal for U.S. investors to pay attention to. The Newsom hidden camera admission about the DSA is hilarious and makes me worry that people are actually brain dead. And speaking of the DSA, Mamdani's latest get out the vote ad is ridiculous and is a reminder of just how at risk our elections actually are.

• 2:35Tom Bilyeu?

  But if you want some good news, the recent rush of foundational scientific breakthroughs made by AI is getting completely crazy in the best way possible. All of that and more on the Tom Bilyeu Show live right now. Shout out to our boys over at Tailor Brands. These guys make starting a business so much easier. If you guys are starting a company, thinking about starting a company, start your journey with Tailor Brands. They can help get your LLC set up, whether you need your EIN number, your registered, your registered agent, licenses, permits, bookkeeping, business banking, coaching, payments. These guys handle so much of that early burden. It is absolutely extraordinary.

• 3:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Click the link in the description or check out the QR code on the screen to start with Tailor Brands today. All right, boys and girls, I'm sorry, by the way, that we don't actually have an orange set for you today. That intro was amazing. Shout out to the team for putting that together. It's absolutely fantastic. But what isn't fantastic, the situation in Brazil is insane. And if you're at all paying attention to U.S. politics, I hope that you see that this is a glimpse into the direction that we can go. If we keep leaning into populism and lawfare, this is a nightmare being played out in real time. They're effectively running the experiment that America itself just keeps flirting with.

• 3:56Tom Bilyeu?

  So if we want to peek into our future 10 years down the road, it looks something like this. By the way, if you guys aren't familiar with this timeline, it is insane. In 2018, an activist judge, Sergio Moro, jailed Lula, who was the frontrunner at that time, and is the guy that just won the recent presidential election where people are suspecting that there's fraud or corruption. And if not that, certainly political persecution. I'm going to get to more of that in a minute. But after beating Lula in 2018, Har Bolsonaro, so there's two, you've got father, son, two sons technically. So he wins back in 2018.

• 4:39Tom Bilyeu?

  He made Moro, the judge who jailed Lula, his justice minister. Then leaked messages came out later that showed that Judge Moro had been coaching the prosecutors on how to get Lula. That scandal causes the Supreme Court to toss out Lula's conviction. So he comes back into the picture, gets out of prison, goes on to win the presidency in 2022. But that doesn't settle everything down. A week after he's sworn in, Bolsonaro supporters stormed Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential palace. At this point, does Lula urge calm and help Brazil heal? No, he does not.

• 5:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Justice Alexander de Moraes, with Lula's former personal lawyer beside him on the bench, sends Bolsonaro now to prison for 27 years for a plot that supposedly included killing Lula and killing Moraes himself. Now, despite being a part of the story, Moraes does not recuse himself. And the court rules somehow that he doesn't need to, which is wild. Bolsonaro's son Eduardo then flies out of Brazil, goes to Washington. I think he basically permanently sets up camp because I'm pretty sure he's still here. He starts lobbying Trump like crazy.

• 5:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Trump then sanctions Moraes and slaps a 50% tariff on all of Brazil, naming the quote witch hunt as the reason. Brazil then convicts Eduardo, so Lula's government convicts Eduardo, the son of Bolsonaro, who went to the U.S. to lobby Trump. They convict him for the lobbying in absentia. Obviously Eduardo wisely does not go back to Brazil. Now Flavio, the son of the guy who had lost and been in prison for 27 years, he ignores a court order and has just landed in Miami after the election that just happened. So there's all kinds of madness breaking out here.

• 6:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Every election basically at this point is becoming a trial. And this is precisely what scares me about the U.S. Is you're hearing everybody saying the other side is doing some existential threat. We've got to lock them all up. The cries for Trump, obviously to be investigated are at a fever pitch. The cries for Elon Musk continue to grow for, it's not even that people are pointing at something that they think he did illegally. They're just saying he needs to be investigated over and over and over. And so this is where this stuff goes. When you have everybody convinced that the other side is doing something illegal and they need to be locked up, or not even necessarily convinced that they're doing something illegal,

• 7:22Tom Bilyeu?

  but that you understand that you can use lawfare to either get them jailed or to exile them from politics. It, it devolves into madness. We are already seeing this. We obviously saw them go after Trump massively. We've seen insane rhetoric coming out of Trump first, starting with Hillary. Now thankfully, he did not pursue that. But he was obviously banging that drum for a very long time. And we're hearing more of that rhetoric pouring out here now in the U.S. Now, the fascinating thing to me is watching how people are responding to this. So Glenn Greenwald has been doing an absolutely fascinating breakdown of all of this over on X.

• 8:03Tom Bilyeu?

  And he's pointing out that right now, and this definitely, I do not want people to think that this is only something that's happening on the left. It is just that right now with Lula's recent victory and all of the debate about whether it was corrupt, whether things were handled legally or not, which we covered on Monday. With all of that, basically you've got Greenwald going in and saying, look at the way that the left is responding to this. So the left is now doing all of these back bends to say that the way that the judiciary is going after this is perfect. This is exactly what you should be doing. You got to lock these guys up. You can't let them be corrupt. But the very guy that's going after them is somebody that they had originally said was this right wing lunatic. He was a complete fascist.

• 8:48Tom Bilyeu?

  And so now all of a sudden they've all flipped because they're going after the political people that they don't like. And so as long as they're going after the politicians that they don't like, they're perfectly for an authoritarian state. And so it isn't something that they're speaking on principle. And that is where the problem lies. If people don't have a principle about the fact that, listen, lawfare is bad. People should be very slow to pursue their political opponents, which is exactly why I've been saying, yo, you better have Ilhan Omar dead to fucking rights on something that everybody is going to agree. This is a clear and obvious case of fraud. This is not like we filled out the paperwork wrong.

• 9:30Tom Bilyeu?

  I get their beef about like, was she 17 or 18? And so that determines whether she actually was a naturalized citizen or not. Bro, that shit better be on lock. It better be that the father was never naturalized and she was the wrong age anyway. And that it's all just blatantly obvious that she has no explanation for any of this stuff, that she's been lying about her name. We better have the DNA evidence that yes, in fact, she did marry her brother and continued to escalate the fraud. Because if this is just that she was 18 instead of 17 and that's all you have to go on, oh my God. I get it. Yes, it would, it would be illegal.

• 10:10Tom Bilyeu?

  But Jesus Christ, if looking at Brazil does not show you, this does not go anywhere good. People escalate. They do not calm down. They do not say, hey, everybody, we need to think about what's good for the country moving forward. I'm not going to go after my political opponent unless what we're looking at is something horrifically egregious. Because it just turns into this back and forth tit for tat thing that only gets worse. It is the Hatfields and the McCoys over and over and over. Someone at some point has to break this cycle of psychotic abuse that we are all getting sucked into at a global stage. Because this is populism. People feel something and they want things to proceed along the lines of what they feel.

• 10:54Tom Bilyeu?

  And they will justify whatever happens as long as it aligns with the way that they feel. So if you're going after the person that I hate, remember, I do not want Ilhan Omar to get elected. Plain and simple. But boy, oh, boy, I do not want people going after her legally if.

• 11:14Tom Bilyeu?

  It's even like mildly a gray area like it's just gotta be smoking gun after smoking gun. You can't let things become lawless. I understand that you need people to be held accountable when they do something that is a grotesque violation. But when you're talking about motives being wildly impure, when you're talking about something where you're stretching a small thing into something gigantic, which is exactly what I think they did with Trump, it is exactly what I expect is happening with the Ilhan Omar situation. There is a there there that warrants an investigation, but god damn, would I have been absolutely fine if they had left that alone? Yeah, probably. Because the optics of it are so bad for the country and it just further pushes people on

• 11:56Tom Bilyeu?

  the teams. If you are a politician right now, the only thing you should be thinking about is how do we get people off of teams? How do we get people thinking about every American? How do we get every elected official to actually believe and understand that their job is to bring everybody together? That you are the leader of all sides, that smart, completely rational people are going to be looking at this in the exact opposite way that you are. And that is the very thing that allows us to find the better answer and move forward. There is a reason that the founders of the constitution here in the US created this ability for each side to stymie the other. So that neither side is just running off and making these radical changes that happen way too fast for the country to metabolize.

• 12:41Tom Bilyeu?

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• 13:26Tom Bilyeu?

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• 14:08Tom Bilyeu?

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• 14:52Tom Bilyeu?

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  After it, it drafts your CRM updates to review and approve. So there's less admin and more selling. Switch to a CRM built by salespeople for salespeople and join the over 100,000 companies already using Pipe Drive. My link gets you an exclusive 30 days free instead of the usual 14-day trial. There's no credit card payment needed. Just head to pipedrive.com/impact to get started. Again, that's pipedrive.com/impact and you can be up and running in minutes. Jesus, this is where things really go off the rails. We have got to get somebody in Brazil, here in Europe.

• 16:22Tom Bilyeu?

  I think we're going to see more of this in Europe. If, if we don't break out of this pattern as a globe, we're in for a long stretch of very dark times. People tend towards tyranny. Okay, the individual tends towards tyranny. Governments really tend towards tyranny. That is the very thing that we have to be protecting ourselves against. And so when I started like researching the timeline of what's going on in Brazil, this is all bad. It does not matter if you love Lula, hate Lula, it doesn't matter if you love Bolsonaro, hate Bolsonaro. The way that this is playing out is only going to continue to escalate until one group gets complete and total control of the country. And then they rule with an iron fist. Why?

• 17:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Because they know if they lose power that there are going to be legal pursuits. I think Trump never would have run for office again if he didn't think, oh, by losing, I'm going to prison. And so now he's forced back into running for office. This is not the way that you get the best and the brightest people in the world to run for office. This is how you get people going, I don't want to fuck with that. I don't want to be involved in that in any way, shape or form. So man, please, if, if we want to see elected officials be honorable people that are trying to do something that are actually good for the populace, somebody has to draw a fire break and just say, yep, things were done that were bad and for the good of the country, we're going to let that go. In the same way that we did with Nixon in the seventies.

• 17:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Did Nixon do something that could have seen him go to prison? Yes. But was that the right thing for the country? No. And so taking that kind of beat where somebody draws a line is going to be absolutely necessary. And I can just hear how people are going to respond to this. Everybody just wants to prosecute the thing. I get it, man. I get it. But Jesus, if people can't see the bigger knock on effect, that gets very, very scary. And if people on the left right now, in this moment, cannot see the way that they're doing the psychological gymnastics to now justify somebody who they used to think was a right-wing fascist is now the guy they're holding up as a hero. Simply because it aligns with their ideology. Whew, dark days are ahead.

• 18:32Speaker 03

  I'm getting a lot of law and order in the chat like, but what about law and order? We have to maintain the line. So you said somebody has to draw that line. I'll start there. Is that just, we need to now summon, just like we summon Trump, we need to now summon somebody who would hold the left and right accountable? Who is that person that we should look to that can draw that line or?

• 18:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, I hope the Democrats give us somebody cool to choose from. Right now, the person that I see act in a firm but sensible manner is Rubio. I don't think I have hidden my like of the way that he does politics. He certainly isn't somebody that is just going to let things sort of free wheel into madness, but at the same time does not seem eager to go punish and be seeking retribution that doesn't seem to be in his wheelhouse. What he seems focused on, and I think this is the right answer, is, hey, look, it's very easy for these things to get off the rails. What we need to do is come together. The speech that he gave in Europe, I thought was phenomenal. This was, what, about a year ago now, maybe a little less? Where he went over to Europe and instead of chastising them, reminded them of all

• 19:35Tom Bilyeu?

  the great and tremendous contributions that they had made to the world, how important they have been to America's rise and America's culture, and that he didn't want to lose those ties. He wanted to bring us together. A very similar thing, going to Greece, instead of beating them up for, you know, economic failings of the past. Or for not, I mean, they went through their own sort of far-right crisis not too long ago. And instead of smashing them in the face for that was like, listen, let's re-anchor on a new founding story. And I think this is a big part of what has to happen. We have to get to the point where we are telling ourselves a new story that allows people to update their thinking about what it means to be an American, Greek, UK, Spain,

• 20:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Italy, whatever, all of those people. What, what does it mean today? Because you've got to be able to, France, you've got to be able to ingest that the world is different, our countries are different, but we need a founding story that allows us to anchor to that. Who are we? Where are we going? What do we share? What do we have in common? And that isn't going to happen through political persecution. And I, I really do understand what people mean. You can't just let things spiral out of control. But it's like, run the thought experiment. What happens if I go and start jailing those people? What, what are they going to do? Because the populace is divided almost exactly 50/50. And so if you start going after the Ilhan Omars of the world, you start going after

• 21:05Tom Bilyeu?

  DAs and judges, you start going after ex-presidents. It, the other side is going to now be mobilized and you're going to push them to go get their candidate, the strongest, most aggressive, most likely to persecute the other side. They're going to summon that person into office and then you're just going to get lawfare, lawfare, lawfare. And the problem is eventually somebody gets enough momentum that they start breaking the democratic system so that they can hammer down their opponents. And then people just don't want to challenge it. More and more people are like, I don't want to be involved in this. And they back out of politics because it's a surefire way to get yourself arrested. There have been, God, I forget exactly who I heard say this, so I won't call anybody

• 21:50Tom Bilyeu?

  out, but I've recently heard people talking about, yo, like the Democrats, when they get back into power, they've really got to start doing some investigations here. They got to figure out what exactly has happened, like how have we ended up here? So now the people on the right here, well, we better hold power. How far will they be willing to go if they think that their options are nudge an election in a certain way or go to jail? When people think it's existential, man, they really start fighting dirty. So we are pushing people to act like lunatics. And that's where I'm like. There are going to be cases that are so obvious and so corrupt that of course, we're gonna have to go after them.

• 22:32Tom Bilyeu?

  However, if it's your prime political opponent, that's probably not the person to go after, especially not when you're in a head-to-head runoff. So the fact that the US, because right now, early days, we'll see what the final reporting is. But right now, it seems like the US actually helped Bolsonaro escape, which means Bolsonaro knew ahead of time, if I don't win this election, I am, they're gonna go after me. And I think it was like seven minutes after the election, they announced that they're gonna go seize his passport. So he was correct. And so the US then reportedly helps him escape Brazil, because they couldn't track him down, they couldn't figure out where he was. They thought they found him in Argentina.

• 23:16Tom Bilyeu?

  Turns out that was like a decoy, though he actually may have been in Argentina. No one's quite sure yet. But then he ends up flying to the US and is right now confirmed to be on US soil. So, I mean, just think about that. Like, how unhinged would people be going if whoever, uh, let's go back in time. Imagine if Kamala Harris had to flee America when she lost to Trump. That would be crazy town. So people would rightly be up in arms about that. So when we look at Brazil, what we should be clocking is, ooh, this can really start to go in a bad direction. And so people have to figure out, what would you do in that moment?

• 24:01Tom Bilyeu?

  You're Bolsonaro, you win. Do you have Lula jailed? Like, was that the world's dumbest move? Almost certainly, yes. And now, I don't know the Brazilian timeline well enough to know what came before Lula going to jail. Was there already a bunch of stuff that Bolsonaro felt like, oh, I've gotta like, you know, go do this? And there's, I think, I think you pronounce it Herr, uh, if it's Jer, forgive me, but Herr Bolsonaro. You've got Herr Bolsonaro, Flavio Bolsonaro, who just fled, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who fled previously. So it's like, it is a level of madness that when people are saying, okay, we need law and order,

• 24:43Tom Bilyeu?

  look at, given the impure motives, or at a minimum, the perception of impure motives by half of your population, is that stabilizing or destabilizing? It's the same thing with Trump and ICE. When you do it like a bunch of Gestapo, it creates a bigger problem. So there, there is a way of going about these things that makes the problem worse. And there's a way of going about these things that can actually allow the country to heal. And jailing your political opponent is not the thing that allows the country to heal.

• 25:19Speaker 03

  We shall see. I'm gonna be honest, there's a lot of people that are saying, Tom, you're like, you're standing with corruption, or just because you can't let a politician be corrupt just because they're a politician.

• 25:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, so cool, okay, heard, totally get that. And, and I take that criticism on board, because this is not an easy problem to solve. But now, let's go through the timeline. Do we think that Brazil is moving in a better or worse direction? I would say they're moving in a worse direction. It's escalating, the number of people that feel like they have to flee the country. And so now, we're gonna watch, we're gonna see what plays out. And is this just that Brazil now starts ruling with an iron fist? It certainly seems like we're headed in that direction. To me, that is a worse situation than drawing a fire break and saying, "Look, we think that this was run in an incredibly corrupt fashion.

• 26:11Tom Bilyeu?

  So here are gonna be the things that we do to prevent this from happening in the future." So rather than looking backwards and having this guy jailed, this is what we're going to do. And the, "This is what we're going to do" has to be sane, it has to be effective. But I'll tell you that, starting with, what are the things that we're going to do to secure our election? That's gonna be one of them. And so the fact that we're not looking at that, and we're gonna talk more about this as we get into the Mom Donnie story. But the fact that we're not focused on, what are the mechanistic things that we can do to shore this up? Is crazy to me. This is exactly how I feel about AI. My initial reaction, I think is very similar to what people are feeling now, which is, with AI, I was saying, okay, we've, we've gotta like, train this thing

• 26:56Tom Bilyeu?

  to develop an internal sense of morality and to stop itself. Okay, the, that seems less likely by the day. All right, so we're not going to be able to trust Bolsonaro or Lula to do the quote-unquote "right" thing. So what can we build in at an engineering level to ensure that the elections are actually free and fair? So that we at least know that this is the will of the people. That would be a huge step in the right direction. You're doing something from an engineering standpoint to make it impossible to rig your elections. We're not doing that, we're jailing people. And so I'm, I get it, humans that are reasoning from emotion are just gonna be like, "But these guys did a bad thing, we have to go after them." But in going after them, are you making the problem better or worse? That would be what I would ask people.

• 27:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Just like, you can make all kinds of arguments that, hey, uh, Iran was going to get a nuclear weapon, so we now have a problem, uh, we should go in and bomb them. Okay, well, what is likely to come of that? And are we happy with the way that things have turned out? Or would there have been a better approach to this? For instance, should we have been running the economic isolation strategy instead of going all the way to military conflict? Would we have been better off in that scenario? But running through the thought exercises of where this stuff goes, that's what I would want people to do. To me, and here's the base assumption, base assumption that I'm operating on, is that if you do lawfare, lawfare will only continue to escalate

• 28:24Tom Bilyeu?

  until one side has an iron grip on the country, right? At some point, everybody has to go, "Justice was just served." Hopefully, we can all agree on that. And until you get to that point, it's just going to keep escalating until you have a situation like we have in China, where one guy just rules a whole party and he purges anybody that stands against him. And now you have a dictatorship for life? I mean, that, that is where this goes. And if you are like me, and that seems a self-evident escalatory path that we're on, we've already watched like the first seven steps of that escalation, and then people are like, "Just do more of it." I'm like, "What the fuck?" Like, you can already see where that goes. If it led somewhere good, I'd be all for it. But the reality is, we're at a point now, it, it is, it is an experiment actively being run.

• 29:09Tom Bilyeu?

  It's yielding bad results. So why do we wanna keep doing more of the same? Also, we have the counter argument to this. We saw this play out in the US with Nixon. And the country was actually better for just saying, "What the country needs to do now is look forward, we're letting him go." And remember, that was his opponent. It wasn't like another Republican was like, "We gotta let this guy go." A Democrat comes into office and is like, "Yeah, pursuing this guy legally is not the play." And so now, in a moment of calm like that, where people feel like, okay, this is being handled well, the adults are in charge, now you wanna start putting in systems to protect yourself from that kind of corruption? Great.

• 29:51Tom Bilyeu?

  But the way that we're going about it now is purely emotion. It is purely, uh, just keep doing the thing that is yielding the horrific result.

• 30:01Speaker 03

  If we stepped outside of like, left, left-right-ness of it all, and just had somebody that came in with clear head and said, "Okay, Elon Omar is bad, and I'm going after the Epstein files people. I am securing the border, but I'm also going after the Medicare fraud that's in Florida." And it, it wasn't partisan, it was just under the banner of justice with that change-your-read? Or do you think we're too locked in, the left versus right? Then the right's gonna retaliate, then the left's gonna retaliate?

• 30:27Tom Bilyeu?

  No, I think there, there are things that people should be going after, for sure. Fraud being a phenomenal example of the American people are being defrauded right now of billions, if not hundreds of billions of dollars. That all has to stop, for sure. Now, the good news is, the vast majority of the people involved in that are not running for president. And so you can go and deal with that in a way that isn't about a political ally now, or a political opponent. Now, the one thing I would love to see, and we're certainly not going to see, but I would love to see investigations from each side into their own side. That would be perfect.

• 31:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Like, if we see the, um, the pursuit of fraud not just in, like, I'm a Republican, so I just go after Democrat states. Like, I wanna see it all over the place. And that would go a long way towards letting people know, like, I am, I'm blind to what's going to come of this. I have no idea if I'm about to find a Republican or a Democrat, somebody that's on the right or the left. It's just, we've gotta find fraud wherever it exists. That would certainly be a far better signal than what we're... I, I haven't done enough research to know if they've exclusively gone after blue cities or blue states. But my default assumption is that they've either wildly over-indexed or exclusively gone after them. So that certainly isn't ideal.

• 31:51Tom Bilyeu?

  But that, at least, we can look at it, it will go through the court system, these are not people running for office. Letting Tim Walz go, I thought was the right answer. Like, let's just assume that that guy was doing a ton of corrupt shit. He backs off, he says, "I'm exiting out of the political system." Perfect. Now, there's no reason to prosecute him. You got the outcome that you want, which is he's out of office. Now find out where is the actual fraud happening and go after that. That, to me, you've gotta remove it from the realm of politics as much as is humanly possible.

• 32:23Speaker 03

  You brought up Mom Donnie earlier, let's jump over to this tweet and clip from him.

• 32:30Speaker 03

  I'll read the Scott Jenny tweet, then I'll let, we'll play the video. His last two videos are instructing illegals on how to evade ICE and now this one reminding everyone that no ID is required to vote in NYC. They aren't being subtle, folks.

• 32:42Speaker 04

  About our elections this year, here's what every New Yorker should know. Voting is easy and safe. In New York City, you don't need to bring anything with you to cast your vote at the polls. We'll even give you a ben. Our city's elections are secure. About our elections this year, here's what every-

• 32:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, um, well, one, it would actually be interesting to see. So he's saying our-

• 32:59Speaker 03

  I'm mad at the caption now. That was dumb.

• 33:01Tom Bilyeu?

  What'd it say?

• 33:02Speaker 03

  You don't, you do not need to bring ID to vote. Two seconds later, our elections are secure.

• 33:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, so I'd be curious to see, I don't know if you can find it, but um, where he goes beyond that. Uh, because if he, for instance, addresses ID in some way, that would be wonderful, but I know that they don't require ID. Uh, and just as a reminder, in California, it is illegal to ask for ID, which is absolutely insane. So for me, the thing that I'm queuing off of here is when he says that our, uh, they're safe, what does he mean? Um, to me, my belief is that he's letting people know that ICE is not going to be there. So that one to me seems blatant. Now, if you read that differently, then I would completely understand somebody having a different read on what they think he's saying. But my base assumption is that he is being very clear on a stance that he has had for a very long

• 33:51Tom Bilyeu?

  time, which is New York is a sanctuary city, uh, that regardless of your immigration status, they want to make sure that you have access to benefits. Um, I believe that this is a signal to people that you are not going to, um, walk into a polling station and have ICE standing around outside or inside. And so come one, come all. Now, I have the base assumption that the left act, and DSA in extreme, remember, part of the DSA platform is, um, not all of them say the elimination of borders, but that is a part of the agenda. That they believe there's no such thing as illegal on stolen land. Like there's every

• 34:32Tom Bilyeu?

  signal that they could give that ultimately, and up to and including, by the way, finding a path to citizenship for people that are here illegally. Um, they, according to me, uh, they want everybody to be able to vote in the elections regardless of immigration status. That is my stance. Now, obviously, he did not just say that. Uh, this is all subtext and it all comes down to your read on that subtext, but I believe that's what he's talking about, that he wants-

• 34:58Speaker 03

  I got, I got the full one there.

• 34:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Talks about that.

• 35:00Speaker 04

  With so much misinformation about our elections this year, here's what every New Yorker should know. Voting is easy and safe. In New York City, you don't need to bring anything with you to cast your vote at the polls. We'll even give you a ben. Our city's elections are secure. Thousands of poll watchers and poll workers across the five boroughs make sure of it. Armed federal agents, including ICE, cannot be at New York polling places without a judicial warrant signed by a judge.

• 35:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, so now, literally just being blatant. Okay, so, uh, I no longer have to infer if that's what he's saying, he's just saying it. So, uh, yes, why do you have to warn legal people that ICE isn't going to be there? So that would certainly be, uh, a just blatantly stated truth of what I was saying, or example of what I was saying. So, yeah, that certainly didn't change my opinion. Uh, the fact that you have people watching these is, uh, that's the whole complaint. So if Trump were saying, hey, guys, don't worry, my people are there, they're watching over the election, nobody would be calm about that. Everybody'd be like, that's what I'm fucking worried about. Uh, so, yeah, this is, there, there is an engineering way that we need to make the election secure, so you

• 36:05Tom Bilyeu?

  don't have to trust anybody on either side, that it just, it, as a matter of engineering, is happening.

• 36:10Speaker 03

  Bit of a false equivalency though, because Trump ran on my election, my election, like, they stole the election from me. So him saying, the election is stolen, the election practices are fraud, I have my people watching over it, I think is a different connotation than the mayor of New York City saying, there's poll watchers looking over it, it was like, that's why it's safe and secure.

• 36:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Why? That seems insane to me.

• 36:30Speaker 03

  That seems insane that the person that denied the sanctity of an election and the results of an election is then gonna say, hey, guys, from a federal level, I am overwatching about polls, which is not a federal mandate, that's not their jurisdiction, that's not what they're supposed to watch. Whereas the mayor of a city saying, they're okay, you're allowed to come vote here, we have poll workers.

• 36:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, that seems like you're suspicious of Trump and therefore don't trust anything that he's doing. You're not suspicious-

• 36:56Speaker 03

  It's not-

• 36:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Of the state.

• 36:58Speaker 03

  What they said versus what they relay, versus what their jobs are stated to be.

• 37:02Tom Bilyeu?

  But why, so you're asking me to ingest that Trump, uh, said that the election was rigged, and what I think you're saying, and correct me if I'm wrong, is that that somehow means that he would not accurately count the votes?

• 37:19Speaker 03

  But are you saying, do you think that the 2020 election was rigged?

• 37:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, no.

• 37:23Speaker 03

  Okay, so then you, so that would be a false, like, he's saying something that's false, he's lying?

• 37:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Just because he, no, no, hold on. Whether he believes the election was rigged or not is a totally separate question. But I'm saying, I don't have any reason to believe that federal officials would rig the election. So now, would I prefer that independent people that are apolitical look over the way that the votes are cast, so that everybody must show proof of citizenship, and that the votes then are tallied in some way, whatever the engineering solution is going to be, such that the ballots cannot be tampered with, counted in funny ways or whatever? Um, yes, that's what I want to see. I, I am not campaigning for Trump to come in and oversee this. I'm just saying that there's, to me, you either

• 38:11Tom Bilyeu?

  trust the politicians are going to do a good job, or you don't. Now, I'm in the, I don't trust either of them. I just don't think that it's a false equivalency. To me, it's the same. I get why people would be super skeptical of Trump doing this, and I get, I hope, why other people would think that Mom Donnie, the words that he just said are in no way, shape, or form making me go, oh, phew, like, this is all gonna be fine. I'm looking at this like, this shit is broken as fuck. Like, how do we not require ID? And ID that can't be gotten by somebody who's illegal, which we already know that state IDs can be gotten by people that are illegal. This is crazy town to me. So, the fact that we are not doing things at an engineering level to make sure that everybody shows up,

• 38:55Tom Bilyeu?

  they are who they say they are, they have to prove that they're a citizen, that they are eligible to vote, the fact that we don't do that is absurd. So, all I'm saying is, I get why people be skeptical of both. Because right now, our politicians are proving that they just want their side to win.

• 39:13Speaker 01

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• 40:09Speaker 03

  Um, we have undercover video? I feel like they wanted to like-

• 40:13Tom Bilyeu?

  It is undercover.

• 40:14Speaker 03

  Be like a-

• 40:14Tom Bilyeu?

  But-

• 40:15Speaker 03

  Yeah. Gavin Newsom says the DSA is going to be dominant and mainstream in the Democratic Party. Tom, you've been saying this, right?

• 40:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, yes. No, well, so, here's, here's why I think this thing makes me believe that everybody is brain dead. The fact that they're calling this an admission about the DSA is hilarious. So, dude, this guy will say this right to your face on camera. You don't have to, like, it, it is the framing of this, like, they're trying to make this like it's some crazy gotcha moment on Newsom. Again, talk about a politician that I don't want to see elected. Yo, this guy has done horrific things to California. Absolutely horrific things to California. But making it out like he doesn't talk openly about this is wild. So, here, you have an example of people on the right trying to do some big gotcha, trying to frame this as if he doesn't talk about this. So, I'll let you

• 41:06Tom Bilyeu?

  watch the clip. But I was watching this, like, waiting for the gotcha moment, waiting for something that he hasn't talked about. I'm like, what the fuck? So, yeah, this is, uh, political buffoonery of people trying to make it seem like, yo, this is some crazy shit. This is out in the open. Mom Donnie is winning elections. Like, uh, he's not the only DSA member that has won. So, dude, yeah, anyway, play the clip, listen to this. I cannot believe people aren't just taking the argument on and instead trying to do this, aha, we got him.

• 41:35Speaker 05

  I was wondering, because I'm a younger voter, and a lot of us, like, we're, we want to see the Democratic Party move forward. Yeah, we don't want more Kamala Harris, we want, yeah, more, I guess, democratic socialist policies. Like, where do you see, I guess, the Democratic Party going?

• 41:52Speaker 06

  No one is arguing to manage the status quo or fail more efficiently. So I think that the DSA, the energy and the desire and demand for bold change, non incremental change is very much going to be dominant. I mean, that's going to be mainstream Democratic. Absolutely. No question about it. You can't play in the margins anymore. Obviously. The whole, the system's broken. It's completely unbalanced and you can't, we can't manage with the time. We have to completely reimagine.

• 42:26Tom Bilyeu?

  So the bad news is he's a guy that is helping with the decline. But to, to map this as some sort of gotcha is just absolutely stupid. What people need to do is just take on the arguments. So he clearly is in that direction. He is somebody who's very good at reading the winds of politics and where the populace is and telling them what they want to hear. So yeah, this, this is not a big secret. Now, what we have to figure out is, okay, the DSA broadcasts what they stand for. So people need to talk openly about that. The politicians need to be asked directly about the policies. They need to demonstrate an understanding or lack thereof of the economy and how it works. How are these policies actually going to help the average American? Like, what are we actually doing?

• 43:11Tom Bilyeu?

  And then debate on the merits of the actual policies. But instead, what we're getting is this, this is some bullshit populism. This is trying to chum the waters for the Republican base. It, it's absurd. He's not hiding any of this. So of all the things that he dances around, the fact that the DSA has the energy just isn't one that, I don't even think he, I think he has talked like this in public before. So presenting it as a gotcha is just silly to me.

• 43:41Speaker 03

  Yeah. And with the elections coming up, there's no, Angie Nixon was the latest Florida senate who, who campaigned with Hassan, but she personally has said she's not DSA. She's empathetic to their cause and she advocates for Medicare for all and some of the policies. So is this, I guess what my question is, is oftentimes when people are going through politicians and they're doing, they're on the, the trail, they say things like, you know, we're not going to start any new wars and we're going to make things cheaper for you and all these other things. Then they get in the office, reality happens and they don't actually live up to the policies that they like, exclaim. So why do you think the DSA is going to be different than the Democratic Party historically?

• 44:22Speaker 03

  Cause even Kamala Harris said one thing when it was time to campaign, but then when it actually came to her voters, the things that she aligned with when she was in office with Joe Biden, she voted directly against those things. So why do you think the DSA is going to break that threshold that a lot of other politicians can't?

• 44:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, I pray to eight pound, six ounce baby Jesus that that's exactly what happens, that they get completely stymied and they are unable to push their agenda forward. The reason that I talk about the DSA and will continue talking about the DSA is they represent what I will call the brainwashing of America. And we have so broken our youth through the absolutely asinine things that we are teaching them and inflicting upon them in the form of an economy that robs from you via inflation, that we've pushed them into a position where this is the most exciting thing for them, that they have latched on to this hook, line and sinker and they want to see more of this.

• 45:21Tom Bilyeu?

  So I look at anybody that is caught up in the DSA as somebody who is, like, if you're a DSA politician, you're either wildly ignorant or completely sinister, one of the two, either of which is completely disqualifying. If you're somebody who likes their message, I'm empathetic to that because you probably don't understand how the economy works, but you know, something bad is happening. And so you want to understand that thing. And so you're going to gravitate towards the person who tells you, I can give you all of this for free. It's a message that resonates with people all throughout time in history and inevitably leads somewhere absolutely horrific. As a reminder, when the Chinese followed these policies, they were killing 45 million of their own people by starving them to death.

• 46:06Tom Bilyeu?

  And then as soon as they embraced free market, they had the greatest reduction in poverty in human history. So this stuff is, people are conflating the, if we want to take Simon's, Simon Dixon's take on this, just because it's so fun to say, the McFick tick of it all, where yes, there is this very bad thing happening, your politicians and your bankers got together and they created a system where you could inflate people's wealth away from them. And so now anybody that doesn't own assets is forever going to be abused by the system. And then that puts the people who understand how the system works in control. It puts everybody else in a weak position, but it also gives rise to these kinds of politicians

• 46:49Tom Bilyeu?

  who again, are either wildly ignorant or sinister or both. And so they keep clamoring for what ends up being authoritarian rule. So there are few things more dangerous to my beloved country of America than people who believe that the right path forward is socialism or communism, which they openly talk about in the DSA. Go watch them in their own words, go read their own, they don't call it a manifesto, but I will, go read their manifesto about where they want to take things. It, it is legitimate communism. So it's not like, oh my God, a scare tactic and I'm calling it communism. It's actually definitionally communism. So it's bad, people die.

• 47:31Tom Bilyeu?

  It becomes like an absolutely horrific model that I want to talk people out of. I do not want to jail anybody that's in the DSA. They have a right to believe it. But boy, oh boy, do we need to attack those ideas consistently with precision and some real oomph? Because boy, oh boy, if we keep sliding in that direction, that problem is going to hurt the very people that are trying to vote for it. And what we ought not want to fall into is team ball here, where then, oh, well, if I don't like the way the left is going, I must be on the right. That would be a mistake, a massive mistake, because you will then just start going to bat for your tribe, you'll take all the talking points and you will run with it.

• 48:14Tom Bilyeu?

  It is far better to say, here is my set of principles. This is the thing that I judge things by. I've said mine a thousand times. I'm gearing myself towards what allows the middle class to thrive. And right now, the setup of a central bank that can use inflation to privatize gains and socialize losses is not the way. Running deficits is not the way. So we have real problems that we need to address. They will only be made worse by the DSA, not by a little, by a lot. The DSA is an intellectual catastrophe that will become a like catastrophe for the people who are actually living in it. That's the, the problem.

• 48:53Tom Bilyeu?

  So yeah, we need to be vociferous in our resistance to the destructive ideology that has led us to the DSA and that the DSA continues to push forward.

• 49:05Speaker 03

  Two years ago, you were one issue voter. You said the deficit and the debt is the number one issue that we're like looking at going into it. Now heading into the midterms, do you have another, like what's your number one issue? This go around?

• 49:18Tom Bilyeu?

  My number one issue, I don't think is going to change in the foreseeable future, which is the economy. So who's going to be better for the economy? If you're better for the economy, then yeah, let's see. That is the biggest thing that matters.

• 49:31Speaker 03

  Could we go a little deeper? What do you mean by better for the economy?

• 49:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Who's got policies that are pro free market? Who is trying to reduce useless regulations? Who wants to see AI continue to grow? Who understands that the entire global economy is predicated on AI? That if you trip it up, that you're going to fuck up the entire global economy and stop, and we're going to get to this later, stop the kind of innovations that we're seeing in science and health. So yeah, all, all things like that.

• 50:04Speaker 03

  Nice. Okay. We have a super chat.

• 50:07Speaker 07

  Yes, we do. Well, we have two super chats.

• 50:08Speaker 03

  Two super chats, excuse me.

• 50:10Speaker 07

  First up comes from, this is like a two parter, so thank you for the 40. S bro's pod says, much love team. Tom, you've changed my life with mindset and finance. Firstly, what's the most positive thing that's influenced you all this year? He says team two. Thank you all. And secondly, what's something that has hit you negatively this year?

• 50:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, for me, the answer is one and the same. So every time an AI breakthrough in game development comes out, I am simultaneously thrilled because it means that we're going to be able to execute much faster on the thing I'm so passionate about and so excited about, which is Kaizen, the game that we're developing. And then it's also existential dread for that in that it's very possible that the world, certainly as it relates to entertainment, is so different on the other side of this that it is, games just don't mean anything anymore. So yeah, I do worry that games will become so trivial to develop that there will be

• 51:07Tom Bilyeu?

  no way to build a company and it will basically go back to like shorts, but for games. And so for anybody paying attention to like the rise of what they call friend slop, kids are being trained on a totally different kind of game than I grew up on. And so that will make me very sad. But AI has completely unleashed me to move much faster and to build something far more grand and exciting. So yeah, it's dual wheeled.

• 51:34Speaker 07

  And some negative.

• 51:35Tom Bilyeu?

  That it's.

• 51:35Speaker 07

  Oh, you said the negative. Oh, I missed that. What about you, Drew? He said team.

• 51:38Speaker 03

  Oh, um, what's the question? What's the most positive thing?

• 51:41Speaker 07

  Positive, negative this year?

• 51:43Speaker 03

  Negative, my dad died. Positive, um, my daughter made the competitive team on cheer and she really worked her behind off and it was nice to see her like, I want to do this, that. I was like, you can do it. Let's come up with a plan. We came with a plan. She worked, she grinded, she made it.

• 51:58Tom Bilyeu?

  I love that so much.

• 51:59Speaker 03

  Yeah. It was the beginning, middle and then like all three acts of that was very inspiring to me.

• 52:03Speaker 07

  My positive, GTA six is coming out next month.

• 52:06Speaker 03

  Oh, yes.

• 52:06Speaker 07

  And that's kept me going all year.

• 52:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's go.

• 52:08Speaker 07

  Everything will be better.

• 52:10Speaker 03

  All bad days, you just look at the poster, just rough.

• 52:12Speaker 07

  Oh yeah. I have it marked on my calendar.

• 52:14Tom Bilyeu?

  That's amazing.

• 52:15Speaker 07

  And then negative, just a lot of problems with the place I moved to. My AC unit got skunked, so our house smelled like skunk for a few weeks.

• 52:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh God. That's rough. That's rough. That's homeownership for you. Do you guys own or rent?

• 52:28Speaker 03

  Uh, just rent.

• 52:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. It's tough, man. It's tough.

• 52:32Speaker 03

  You brought it up on the top.

• 52:33Speaker 07

  Oh, I had another.

• 52:34Speaker 03

  Oh, sorry, sorry. My bad, my bad, my bad.

• 52:35Speaker 07

  Patrick Wrightson with a $50.

• 52:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, my bad. What's up, brother? Welcome back.

• 52:41Speaker 07

  Though I disagree with his perspective on some things, Yuval Noah Harari has an excellent insight. If you're forced to choose between justice and peace, choose peace.

• 52:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Damn, that's gangster. Now here's the bad news.

• 52:54Speaker 03

  I'll just say, would you agree with that?

• 52:55Tom Bilyeu?

  China be having some peace.

• 52:59Tom Bilyeu?

  But I don't want to be ruled by an iron fist. Oh God, though, there is, there's enough there, there, that that's one of those things you could debate until the end of time because it is a trade off.

• 53:12Tom Bilyeu?

  I think at the extremes, he's correct. There are just going to have to be some things that you let go of. Take the Civil War, for instance. I still think that, I believe it was Ulysses S. Grant. Wait, no, he was on... Who's the guy on the South?

• 53:36Speaker 03

  Robert E. Lee.

• 53:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Robert E. Lee, thank you. Robert E. Lee had a moment where he could have said to everybody, "Hey, guys, never give in, never surrender. Like, now go be insurgents and just never let them know a moment's peace." And the North could have gone after him and other soldiers. But instead, what they did was they said, "All right, listen, that was brutal and bloody, but now what we have to do is we have to come together and heal." And Robert E. Lee actually said to people, "Don't do that. Put down your weapons. Go home. Go back to farming or whatever."

• 54:17Tom Bilyeu?

  And it's one of those moments where, obviously, because people despise the ideology of the South, they don't realize what a gift to the entire nation that moment was on both sides. Huge, the way that it actually allowed us to slowly come back together. Because that really could have been something that just kept us like Ireland and North Ireland for just decades of insurgent violence, terrorism. And we didn't fall prey to that. And we didn't fall prey to that because we were seeking peace and not justice. So from that perspective, I think Yuval Noah Harari is correct. There are ways to get to peace that are not worth the price.

• 55:00Tom Bilyeu?

  But I think so many times that the right answer really is to let that go and just say, "We got to come together."

• 55:07Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think the one thing that makes me think about this is that oftentimes, we have to say, "I have to go enact violence in order for us to be peaceful." Even though traditionally, like, we are in, for all terms and definitions, in peace. So I know, yes, when there's a threat looming and sometimes you have to mobilize the army, I get it, I just watched 300. But other times, there is a certain level of like... Not that we're looking for violence, but it's like, it would be nice to. We can get oil over there. We can mess them up. It would make us the number one. Like, there's other factors that we go when it's not just peace or justice. You know what I mean? So that's the thing that I think is making the question so hard for me personally, is because our definition of justice kind of slides depending on who we're talking about

• 55:52Speaker 03

  and where the person is from. And our idea of peace kind of slides depending on historically versus what we're used to versus our lifestyles, Americans versus other people in like the world.

• 56:01Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, it's definitely not an easy one where you can just say, "Yes, at all times, go for peace." Because some things certainly are worth fighting for. But, boy, does that bar need to be high.

• 56:10Speaker 03

  Yeah. We brought it up earlier, the China stock market is red. We need to talk about it.

• 56:16Tom Bilyeu?

  China's stock market is red. It's been red for a long time. The ongoing crash in the Chinese stock market is brutality. And I think US investors should be paying attention to what's going on there because it is a potential sign of what we can expect here in the US. China's blue-chip stock index has now fallen for 11 straight weeks, is well on its way to a 12th week. 11 weeks is already the longest losing streak since the index was created back in 2005. And it's down more than 20% from its June 22 peak. The question is, what is causing such a sharp and prolonged downturn? Well, it is basically always the ones that you suspect the most.

• 56:57Tom Bilyeu?

  So Shanghai's Star 50 Index, which is an index of AI and semiconductor stocks, has dropped like a rock 40% in under four months, erasing about $480 billion in value. And guess what had happened? These guys had overinflated these valuations massively. Chipmakers, Meta X, and more threads have each lost half of their worth. But the question is, is that wrong? Or are we reverting to something more sane? China's AI bubble is deflating. There's definitely no question about that. It's gone way beyond the point where people can deny it. Now, ironically, just yesterday, the rest of Asia rallied on the news of Anthropic's IPO filing.

• 57:42Tom Bilyeu?

  But China's AI sector continued to fall to its lowest level since March. So we're getting sort of this split in the two narratives, where China's now beginning to give up... They're beginning to realize that their market is overinflated. But the rest of Asia is like, "Well, hey, we've still got something good going on in the US." Now, in fairness, the Chinese AI market was getting priced in just absolutely crazy ways. So it's not too insane that you would start seeing divergence, though I think the US, this is the part they need to pay attention to, we got out over our skis or are still out over our skis. But back in China, retail investors oversubscribed to robot maker Unitree's share offering 8,000 times.

• 58:27Tom Bilyeu?

  But the stock has since been cut in half. So this is probably more a return to normalcy than it is like some hysteria where the sky is falling. It's just, hey, listen, when these things get that far out there, you're going to at some point have to come back down to reality. And because AI names make up 42% of China's total market value and 57% of daily trading, when the AI narrative begins to wobble, the whole index is going to go down with it. So you don't have to go too far beyond that to understand what's happening in the stock market in China. Now, a very interesting thing is their real economy, as people call it, rightly so, is still growing.

• 59:10Tom Bilyeu?

  And I think they're at like 4.5% expected for this year. So that's a position that's survivable, where you have a real economy, that real economy continues to grow. And so the top of your K, the people that own the assets, yeah, they're going to take a hit. But everybody else is still growing, and so it feels good. This is where the US has been making a mistake now for 30-plus years because we don't have as robust of a real economy here inside the US. And so when something happens to our market, it's far more damaging to the overall US economy. Now, the bad news for US investors is that American AI stocks have also wobbled recently.

• 59:52Tom Bilyeu?

  So now, obviously, that's not going to come as a surprise to anybody that's paying attention to the credit market where a lot of the stress is being investigated. We've been talking about this for a while. You've got the New York Fed going into all of these different companies and saying, "Hey, I'm going to need to see what you guys have as assets. Dear banks, I need to understand what exposure do you have to private credit?" Because after the 2008 crash, we had a whole bunch of regulations go on to the banks. But that doesn't stifle demand for a thing, which all round to riskier credit. So there are still plenty of people with great and exciting ideas in AI that are a bigger risk. They can't go to the banks because they've been regulated.

• 1:00:33Tom Bilyeu?

  So now they go to what is lovingly referred to as the shadow banking market. So they go to this private credit. They raise the debt, and they're still able to build all of that up, which, when people get overexuberant and more debt is given than should be given, you can still build weakness out into the economy as a lot of that debt is financialized, packaged up, and sent deeper into the market so that you've got pensions and insurance funds now that have exposure that they may not even realize is exposure to debt that's far more questionable. You start getting on shaky ground. Now, as we talked about before, Elon has just said straight up that the debt markets now have almost entirely shut off

• 1:01:14Tom Bilyeu?

  for any company that doesn't have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. It's... His comment was more narrow than that. His comment was about NeoClouds. NeoClouds are a big part of the AI play, so it's definitely going to matter. SpaceX, obviously, just closed $40 billion in debt. So there is still debt for AI companies. It's just now people are getting more and more tight about who they're going to lend money to. So the question now that US investors have to contemplate is, are we going... Are we actually witnessing already a slow deflation of the AI bubble? Which is what we want, by the way. If you're like me and you think that these have gotten just out of all proportion and you're looking at the historical pattern,

• 1:01:59Tom Bilyeu?

  you know that the bubble's going to have to come down somehow, some way. Now, that can be fast and violent, or it can be slow. So seeing the credit market start to get a little bit wiser, I think is very encouraging. Now, we're going to see how that ends up playing out. And if that ends up playing out and something that becomes a contagion and it speeds up, and then we have this rapid unwind of the AI trade writ large, that would be, obviously, traumatic. If we see something where it is a slow deflation over, you know, six months, a year, two years, then that's something that we can sort of rebalance and hopefully see the winners start to aggregate more of the capital, the losers begin to slowly move out of the situation instead of happening all at once where, you know, we drop in 1929 style,

• 1:02:44Tom Bilyeu?

  like whatever, 89% or something over like a week. That would be the far more difficult to metabolize problem. So we'll see how all of this ends up playing out, but China is definitely realizing that, okay, we're a problem. Now, if everybody just pours into the US market and keeps those valuations far too high for far too long, we could have a bigger problem. So we'll see what happens. The big litmus test is going to be the reaction to the IPO of Anthropic. And if that falls flat, then you could see a bigger contagion effect where people go, okay, the jig is really up. If that goes well, then people might go, okay, cool. We've got to be careful of these guys at the margin, all these neo-clouds that just thought they were going to be able to build forever. That isn't going to be the play, but we still

• 1:03:29Tom Bilyeu?

  do have faith that Anthropic is killing it. They're doing a great job. OpenAI will remain in the background for now. We'll see what happens if and when they go public. But if the Anthropic one goes well, that would be, I think, a stabilizing influence on the market. And so seeing China re-normalize a bit, seeing the private debt markets start to slow down in terms of the risk that they're taking on, if then Anthropic comes out and it does well, okay, I think that's the kind of slower unwind that you could, not survive, you're going to survive it, but that allows the market to rebalance without something traumatic happening rapidly.

• 1:04:10Speaker 03

  Yeah, let's dive into that Anthropic IPO a little bit more. So they are filing, they're supposed to go end of the year, maybe January. The date keeps kind of sliding. Is it really all on them? They hit, what if they mimic kind of what SpaceX did? They IPO at 149, they pop up to 170, maybe even touch 200, then they go under about 20% and now they're back to kind of where they started?

• 1:04:32Tom Bilyeu?

  That is so, that's what people should expect.

• 1:04:35Speaker 03

  Okay.

• 1:04:35Tom Bilyeu?

  The odds that a, especially, because these companies are so late-stage, so keep in mind, back in the day, a company would go public much, much, much, much sooner. We did the comparison between like when Microsoft went public versus Anthropic. And absolutely insane how long these companies are staying private now. And so that is something that, boy, would I like to see that trend change. We'll have to see like if there's, you're just going to have to regulate it or what, but I don't think that's great for the American public. But anyway, we'll set that aside for a second. So you've got a situation where these guys are staying private for a very long time. The valuations are absolutely getting enormous. The savviest of savvy investors, the most connected guys,

• 1:05:20Tom Bilyeu?

  they're using the IPO as their exit liquidity. And so what happens after that, meh, they're not nearly as concerned about. But what traditionally happens, these guys will go public and you'll see like an initial spike as everybody FOMOs in, and then you'll see people go, well, I'm not willing to buy at that price. Then it comes back down. Then if people still believe in the technology, they believe in the narrative, then it will come back up, it will stabilize. Whether it stabilizes, excuse me, whether it stabilizes above or below where they went to, where they did the IPO at, that's a bigger question. So nobody should go into the IPO as a retail investor thinking, oh my God, this is going to be an only up phenomenon. You've got to buy that thing thinking, I'm going to hold this for the next 10 to 20 years, for real, for real. I know that that won't be how people

• 1:06:05Tom Bilyeu?

  act, but that is absolutely how they should act.

• 1:06:08Speaker 03

  Yeah. But then now with the implications on Anthropic, if they follow a similar trajectory, can they save the AI market? Or I'm just trying to think, I'm just trying to think, what could do, what can happen that could get people more excited? Because I feel like the sentiment is starting to shift a little bit on AI.

• 1:06:24Tom Bilyeu?

  It's definitely shifted. I think rightly so. People are returning to earth in a metered fashion. It's not chaotic, which is great. People realizing, hey, token spending isn't what I thought it was going to be. That's already got people being a little bit more clear. The Oracle debt train wreck that's playing out, I think that gave a lot of people pause. The fact that we're not able to get the energy that we need. So a lot of these chips are now sitting in warehouses. That's a whole thing. So I love that people are returning to their senses a little bit here, that we're slowing things down. I think that's very wise. Now, what could happen with Anthropic that would cause that to go from a nice, slow, orderly rebalancing to something chaotic would be, and there's no guarantee that this

• 1:07:07Tom Bilyeu?

  would make it chaotic, but if they can't get the IPO that they were looking for. So let's say that they're aiming, originally they were aiming for 1.5 to 2. Let's say it comes in at like 1.1, 1.2. That starts to be, oh, like we're now declining faster than people thought. And so the biggest player in the space is not able to hit even the low end of what they thought they were going to IPO at. Now we know that investors are starting to pull back and you're going to see, people would react to that and say, okay, I'm not actually buying. I would much rather sell. And if you get a bunch of people dumping into the market via the IPO and nobody's buying, now the price is going down, down, down, down, down, down, down. So that I think would be disruptive. Whether that would

• 1:07:50Tom Bilyeu?

  shoot the whole AI trade in the face, probably not, but that would be a weakened sign that you could see speed up people backing out of the trade. You could see debt dry up more. You could see companies, the guppy level consolidation and failure that Elon was talking about, you could see that play out rapidly. And so then that starts becoming a bigger question. The second and third order consequences of Anthropic failing to get an exciting IPO number, causing then other things to dry up, other capital to dry up, causing companies to go out of business, causing people to start saying, oh, like there's a problem here, causing them to dump their shares. And then you get like a downward spiral. That

• 1:08:34Tom Bilyeu?

  is certainly something that could happen. But because now we've been metabolizing people sort of slowly backing away a little bit, I'm hopeful is the only right word. I'm hopeful that we won't see that sort of rapid race, that people will rebalance, they'll lessen their exposure. We've been seeing people do that for all of 26. Some of the bigger companies have been moving away from the magnificent seven. So, but like all year, right? It's not like a recent thing. So the, somebody said that the AI bubble popped in July. And that's actually an interesting idea, that if instead of it bursting, it just got a little prick that's been letting air out slowly for the last six months, that would actually be very positive. So, and I think it's been happening for longer than

• 1:09:19Tom Bilyeu?

  that. So anyway, I'm perhaps being overly optimistic, but that is my optimistic read, is that this is happening slowly enough that you're going to be fine-ish.

• 1:09:28Speaker 03

  Did you see the Microsoft news? 60,000 of their employees voluntary exit offers?

• 1:09:33Tom Bilyeu?

  I didn't know that it was a voluntary offer. I knew that people were up in arms about the fact that they get tax breaks and yet still lay off 60,000 workers. So.

• 1:09:43Speaker 03

  I'm going more so like, I'm using that as AI story in the sense of like, do you think it was feasible that a quarter of their workforce is now streamlined through AI? Like, is, we're going to see more of those, I think. Because if Microsoft can navigate the 60K and get to the other side, I think we'll see something similar. It's like when Jack did it at Block. And he was like, yeah, 25% of them, I could just use AI. I don't really need you guys anymore. Sorry. Here's severance for a year. I'll see you later. Are the, you think those things are going to start ramping up? Because I feel like Microsoft, there's a lot of noise around it, but everybody's kind of holding their breath to see what the final numbers are and what it actually kind of nets out to?

• 1:10:21Tom Bilyeu?

  I think that AI will cause a lot of streamlining like that, but I think there's likely to be a bigger problem going on. So I'm going to use BioWare as an example. Let's see how many people I can make mad. I'll be so interested to see Ryan's reaction to this. So BioWare, game company, Microsoft goes in, effective, I think they just outright shut them down. But if they just did a riff, forgive me for getting the facts wrong. But so everybody now in the games industry is looking at like what just happened to BioWare? Why did these guys start failing? Why did their games stop selling? And I will put forward, and certainly I'm not the only voice putting this forward, that culturally, they

• 1:11:02Tom Bilyeu?

  let their company get staffed by a bunch of people that don't know why their player base plays games. And so people have done like cutscenes, like here's a cutscene from 2006, here's a cutscene from 2026. And the cutscene 2006 is like, I'm going to shoot you in the fucking dick, asshole. It's like crazy, like the kind of stuff that, you know, a 19-year-old boy is just going to be like, oh, this is so fucking hilarious. And then now it's like, actually, they go by they/them now. I'm not joking.

• 1:11:28Speaker 03

  Was it the clip in the snow? Because that's Blizzard.

• 1:11:30Tom Bilyeu?

  It wasn't a clip in the snow.

• 1:11:32Speaker 03

  And EA's who shut down BioWare.

• 1:11:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Thank you. It was not the clip in the snow, but the moral of the story being the same idea, that when you put these two things, it's the same thing people are saying about Rockstar. So a ton of people saying GTA 6 is not going to be what people think, that it's a totally new era of woke for Rockstar. We'll see, that'll play out. Obviously, there's so much excitement around it. We'll, we'll wait to see what happens. But what I'm getting at here with the AI thing is that what you're looking at is if your staff is opposed to what the audience actually wants, you have a problem. And so the only way to fix it is you've got to completely fix the staffing problem, which can be very

• 1:12:16Tom Bilyeu?

  difficult. Because when your culture is moving in a direction, there's so much momentum that they're going to hire people that think like they think and like the games that they like and all that. And so you just start moving in that direction. It gets very, very hard to stop without a massive staffing disruption. I think you're seeing something similar in AI, where you're running up against people who feel AI as an existential threat, and they refuse to use it, they refuse to deploy it, or they sandbag it, or they maliciously comply with your desire to, you know, you want us using tokens? Oh, I'll use tokens, motherfucker. And they'll do dumb shit just to jack up the price to show you that this is fucking stupid. And so I, I am, this is pure conjecture on my part. I would be very surprised if there was not a lot of that going on inside of Microsoft and virtually

• 1:13:01Tom Bilyeu?

  every other company that isn't a native AI company, that has got a whole bunch of engineers that look at what AI is doing and they, it feels like a death. And they're mourning the death of all the skills that they built up to actually code. And writing code was the thing that they loved and they were good at, and they spent a very long time learning how to do that. And now they're basically just having a conversation with an alien intelligence and then it goes off and codes it. And it feels so different and isn't quote unquote what they signed up for. So I would be surprised if it. In the final analysis, you don't see Microsoft scale up somewhat

• 1:13:41Tom Bilyeu?

  in the new era for them when they are able to select coders specifically based on their enthusiasm for AI. We'll see if I'm right, but I certainly see that on our side, hiring for Kaizen. I have to specifically put in the ad, we use AI. And so if you're opposed to AI, don't even apply. And we see in terms of posts that we put prior to that, we see a massive reduction in the number of people that apply. So same company, we're actually further along in development now. So the fact that we're getting such a radically smaller response tells me that broadcasting that we're an AI studio is causing problems, especially given in the gaming community,

• 1:14:27Tom Bilyeu?

  the massive AI backlash.

• 1:14:31Speaker 03

  I don't want to minimize it to Microsoft is laying off 60,000 people because they are going woke and they going broke.

• 1:14:37Tom Bilyeu?

  No, no, no, I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is if you have engineers that are anti-AI. All I'm trying to say is you get a culture that pulls you. And so if their culture is pulling them in an anti-AI direction, they're like, we've got to do something massive for us to be able to rebuild.

• 1:14:54Speaker 07

  Their culture is not pulling them that way. That's the complaint. People want it to, they're not. These, these video game companies, Microsoft, EA, all these companies are embracing AI. And gamers don't like that across the board, even the woke gaming crowd, right? And I think even the, on the note of the Bioware, Bioware's last game was one of the highest rated games in EA's recent history.

• 1:15:16Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, but you know better than that because the, hold on, hold on, hold on. Look at sales figures because the whole thing, the big controversy in the gaming industry, and I do want to tease these two ideas back out. I've clearly muddied the waters, forgive me. But on the, the side of the gaming industry, what they're saying is, yeah, the reviewers will give Mixtape a 10 out of 10 and then they'll give Crimson Desert a 6 out of 10, which is pretty insane.

• 1:15:41Speaker 07

  Well, I mean Crimson Desert, I've played both of those games. They're both good. Crimson Desert's, Mixtape is a different experience. You can't really say, oh, you're, I mean, you're comparing game style.

• 1:15:50Tom Bilyeu?

  So just, just to separate things out so that we don't, we, we can go have this debate between you and I, which is, I would thoroughly enjoy. But what I'm trying to say is when you have a culture that pulls in a direction, if you want to change the direction the culture is pulling in, then you've got to do something radical at the staffing level. And what I'm putting forward, just as conjecture, is that Microsoft is likely dealing with anti-AI sentiment in their engineers, which we know is a big, there is a large contingent of computer scientists that are very anti-AI. So I would be very surprised if in the final analysis, one man's opinion,

• 1:16:31Tom Bilyeu?

  that what you don't see is that they restaff to some level, but with people that are AI first. That is, that revolution is going to happen, whether that is what's playing out at Microsoft or this is me just projecting in terms of what I'm expecting in the world writ large. I, I will be shocked if people that can hear my voice right now do not agree that there is massive AI backlash in the world. And it is inevitable that many of these companies are going to have a huge contingent of people that are anti-AI. And so at some point, every company is going to have to deal with that. Now, it's pretty easy when you're a small company like us, you can reorient people, people that don't like it will opt out. People that are in will stick around and they're down for it.

• 1:17:15Tom Bilyeu?

  But when you're a gigantic company, it becomes a lot harder to understand where your problems are coming from.

• 1:17:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, the gaming thing is a separate issue, which I'll say is probably not on the docket for a debate today, but Drew, if the audience is popping off and we want to get into it, I'm certainly happy to go down that route.

• 1:17:34Speaker 03

  Yeah, not, not for today, guys. Love you, love you all dearly.

• 1:17:37Speaker 07

  Wait till GTA 6 comes out.

• 1:17:38Speaker 03

  Yes, exactly. We'll save it for the gaming stream. I was trying to get an update on the Israel elections because somebody in the chat just jumped out. Netanyahu, I think there's 40 to 45% of the vote counted right now. But his poly market odds are like doubling and I think that's the.

• 1:17:54Tom Bilyeu?

  He's skyrocketing?

• 1:17:55Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah. So he was behind going into last night, then this morning, US morning. He overcame the other guy, I'm blanking on the name, is Eisenkot. But again, there's still a bunch of votes to be counted and then they won't know officially till next week, so.

• 1:18:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, so you saw reports that Netanyahu was actually claiming victory. But I have just tried and tried and tried to find something where people other than him are actually reporting that he won. Everybody's saying that it's too close to call, so we're gonna have to hang tight on this one, probably like Drew said, for several days, a week, before we know exactly what's gonna happen. Also, I, no one expects him to get a majority, which means they'll have to put together a coalition government. So we'll be waiting for information on that as well. So yeah, stay tuned, but as of right now, there's, despite the poly market saying the odds are in his favor, there's no official announcement.

• 1:18:54Speaker 03

  And there was a historic Arab turnout too, like the Arab coalition.

• 1:18:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Damn, did we say Arab?

• 1:19:00Speaker 03

  They're called the Arab party.

• 1:19:01Tom Bilyeu?

  A, Arab, Arab, not Arab.

• 1:19:04Speaker 03

  Arab?

• 1:19:05Tom Bilyeu?

  Arab or A-Rab? You sound like my dad right now.

• 1:19:08Speaker 03

  A-Rab? You got one of, my aunt said Oriental the other day.

• 1:19:11Tom Bilyeu?

  I still don't understand why that one's bad. So unfortunately, I'm too old, I cannot hear that one with a tin ear. But A-Rab is like, whoa.

• 1:19:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I'm not sure. I don't, yeah, I don't know how that pronunciation became a thing.

• 1:19:23Speaker 03

  I'm sorry if I, if I offended any Arabs outside of.

• 1:19:27Tom Bilyeu?

  He doubles down. Well, the show isn't woke. At least we can say that. Yeah, okay.

• 1:19:34Speaker 03

  Speaking of that.

• 1:19:34Tom Bilyeu?

  So wait, so Arabs or Arabs? They are turning out in historic measure and we're expecting them to vote against Netanyahu?

• 1:19:44Speaker 03

  It's basically they're the green party.

• 1:19:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Got it. But do we know are they for Eisenkot or?

• 1:19:49Speaker 03

  No, it's a third party. It's a separate party.

• 1:19:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, oh, oh.

• 1:19:52Speaker 03

  Last count, yeah, last count is still coming in Netanyahu, I think 53. Eisenkot was like 40 something and they were like 12 as their like green party.

• 1:20:01Tom Bilyeu?

  Got it.

• 1:20:01Speaker 03

  So they can either partner with one of them to make the super majority or they could just reelect it, or some people on Eisenkot's team can break out and go to Netanyahu, vice versa. They don't know how it's gonna mix out. There's like four different scenarios, but if they don't find a consensus, Netanyahu stays in power and they do another election.

• 1:20:18Tom Bilyeu?

  Got it.

• 1:20:18Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:20:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Understood.

• 1:20:20Speaker 03

  Okay, staying in the Middle East, the US has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared. I thought we were not doing the war, then we won the war, then we're not warring, then it's the midterm, so we can't talk about war right now because I have to talk about Nicki Minaj's ass.

• 1:20:33Tom Bilyeu?

  That is exactly. Now, he finally has his priorities straightened, Drew.

• 1:20:36Speaker 03

  That's it.

• 1:20:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Nicki, stand up. Come on, girl. That was wild. I still have very weird feelings about that. I found myself wanting to skip ahead. A video started talking about it. I was like, I just can't hear him say it again. I don't know why that one bothered me. But that one, like, I was just like, Jesus Christ.

• 1:20:52Speaker 03

  Tractually obligated not to say anything because Megan Thee Stallion was twerking at Kamala's rally. So I can't.

• 1:20:58Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, hands off.

• 1:21:00Speaker 03

  I gotta, I gotta let it, I'll let it go.

• 1:21:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, the US.

• 1:21:03Speaker 07

  Yeah, but she's got good music.

• 1:21:05Tom Bilyeu?

  You don't like Nicki Minaj?

• 1:21:07Speaker 07

  I'm just trying to stir.

• 1:21:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Hold on.

• 1:21:08Speaker 07

  I'm just trying to stir the pot.

• 1:21:10Speaker 03

  I was gonna say, Nicki Minaj got bars.

• 1:21:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Nicki Minaj.

• 1:21:13Speaker 07

  I prefer Megan Thee Stallion though. Scary's a good album.

• 1:21:16Tom Bilyeu?

  You, you prefer her talents?

• 1:21:17Speaker 07

  Oh, I, I've listened to both their songs. I just like.

• 1:21:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Not what I was referring to, young man. Not what I was referring to.

• 1:21:23Speaker 07

  I'm not getting trapped in this.

• 1:21:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Because Megan Thee Stallion is gifted.

• 1:21:29Speaker 03

  A tall glass of water. Woo.

• 1:21:30Tom Bilyeu?

  Gifted, so.

• 1:21:32Speaker 03

  How you think in six foot? That don't even make sense. Sheesh.

• 1:21:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Megan Thee Stallion.

• 1:21:36Speaker 03

  Climb that tree. Alright, guys, get back, get back to it.

• 1:21:39Tom Bilyeu?

  The US, the US, setting aside amazing American asses for one moment. The US just issued an ominous warning to the Middle East about what is going to likely come after the midterms. The US warned several Gulf Arab states to prepare for a short but intense military campaign against Iran. Once November 3rd, midterms are out of the way. The warnings passed through diplomatic and military channels and part of the mounting evidence

• 1:22:06Tom Bilyeu?

  are part of the mounting evidence that the US and Israel are gearing up for another round of heavy combat operations aimed at weakening Tehran and forcing it to the table, according to the Wall Street Journal. We will see how exactly this plays out. This feels like a movie that I've already seen six times and I know how this goes. When you have a regime that is perfectly willing to subjugate its own people, we will one day get a clearer picture of how many people were killed that night where we were first asked to believe that, you know, it was just a few hundred people and then all of a sudden it was like 70,000. But the number that I keep hearing reported, I don't hear many people talking about less than 30,000. You routinely hear 50,000. When you've got a group of, when you've got a regime that is willing to kill certainly tens of thousands of its own people,

• 1:22:51Tom Bilyeu?

  they will let them struggle through economic hardship. So that you can count on. Plus, don't forget that the country is almost certainly divided. So there are going to be some people who believe that this is a righteous and worthy cause that is worth suffering for. And so the odds that we go blow up a little bit more stuff and then finally they come to heel is very, very low. I think this is really going to be a question of what comes after Trump. And if what comes after Trump is somebody that's going to keep the pedal to the metal on the economic sanctions, then in the fullness of time, you may eventually see them collapse. But they have existed under pretty stringent economic sanctions for a very long time. And they're still able to find back channel ways largely to sell to China.

• 1:23:35Tom Bilyeu?

  And so if you're not able to completely stop that, then they're going to get just enough money to eke by. So there's only so much that the US is going to be able to do to choke them out militarily, to choke them out economically. So they may have just enough to continue to survive. The Iranians have already said, we understand, we just have to outlast Trump. I think that they are willing, the question is going to be able, but they are certainly willing to try to wait him out for the rest of his term, not just the midterm. So we'll see what happens. I'm not expecting it to be decisive in the overall battle as nothing up to this point has been.

• 1:24:11Speaker 03

  Somebody in the chat said we should maybe hit the boys school next time.

• 1:24:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Hit the boy, oh god, so dark.

• 1:24:18Speaker 03

  It's dark, but that's my type of humor. Great comment.

• 1:24:22Speaker 03

  Okay, uh, sheesh. With the midterms coming along, I know that's the biggest hurdle right now that Trump has for his plane in the Middle East. Everybody's predicting a blue wave, but honestly, he sidestepped Congress to get there anyway. So do you think he has some type of like, fuck it, I don't got the majority, I'm losing power. At least I can go out and say that I was a president that dealt with Iran and he goes all out after the offense and all the midterms.

• 1:24:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes.

• 1:24:45Speaker 03

  There's, you see, okay.

• 1:24:47Tom Bilyeu?

  Aggressive. He, so unfortunately, he's not the only president. We've been ruling by fiat. Obama, uh, Trump one, Biden, Trump two. It's just, that's what presidents do now. And that is something that we should want to see unwind. The whole idea is that you get the cooperation between, um, the, uh, House and Senate, working with the executive branch to come up with legislation that everybody can stand behind. But as you slide into populism, then it's just tribes and nobody's going to cooperate with the other side. It's considered being a traitor to your party to work with the other side, which is just absolutely ridiculous. And on its face should be something that the American people should reject aggressively.

• 1:25:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, but yes, I expect impeachment process to begin immediately on Trump. I expect them to fail to get a conviction. Uh, so it'll essentially be theatrics with no real outcome that they almost certainly should not waste time on, but they will. Uh, and instead of then working together to put sensible legislation to, um, rein Trump in, uh, we're certainly not going to see that. And so we're going to get a bunch of EOs. We will see him.

• 1:26:03Tom Bilyeu?

  Will he for sure attack? The odds seem very, very high. So I'm certainly not going to bet against him going in and attacking in order to force the issue. But I, he's, I cannot fathom a universe in which Netanyahu gets reelected and then Trump is on the other side of the midterms and they don't go, we've got to get like an actual useful, uh, moment out of this. So you can expect something to happen. And if they're already broadcasting that they're going to do another strike to try to drive them back to the table, now you're going to reignite an escalatory, um, uh, attacks around the GCC. So those places are all going to get hit by Iran.

• 1:26:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, and so then that might be the cover that Israel and the US need to then go and just really get back into it and try something to break their back and send them to the negotiating table. But yeah, I don't expect it to be, um, super productive, nor do I expect it to be something that Congress is going to stop them from doing.

• 1:27:03Speaker 03

  Um, on the other war that has been going on, this is allegedly, there's reports, I haven't seen any scheduling or anything like that. Putin has invited Zelensky to Moscow for direct peace talks. But I don't know, like, would you do that?

• 1:27:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Hell no. There's no universe in which, why the fuck would he do that? So the very thing, he's already said, I'm not going to go there for security concerns. Putin saying like, trust me, bro, you're out of your mind. So yeah, I would be absolutely shocked.

• 1:27:31Speaker 03

  Wouldn't that motivate the world to like?

• 1:27:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Sure, but like you're already going up against, um, Europe now. It's like you're going to go up against Europe harder? You're gonna hope that the US is like, we gotta step in? Like, the, yeah, this is.

• 1:27:48Speaker 03

  But that's the thing, if, if Zelensky goes to Moscow for peace talks and ends up dying, it'll be a sad story, all that thing. Everybody in the world would be like, okay, Russia, like you.

• 1:27:58Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's say that he doesn't die. Let's say that they lock him up and say, listen, this guy has committed war crimes and it would be irrational of us not to hold him. Obviously, we're going to treat him with respect. We just need to see him tried in a court of law. And that's it. But now they're in disarray for weeks or a month as they figure out who's going to actually lead them and Russia tries to press the advantage. It is simply a risk and reward situation where it is, the amount of risk is so lopsided that I don't know why you would ever do that. Especially because Putin can very safely fly somewhere else to a neutral place where nobody is going behind enemy lines. And so an unwillingness to do that is already so sus

• 1:28:41Tom Bilyeu?

  that, yeah, I just, it's ridiculous. So there's, I cannot fathom that he would do that, Zelensky would do that. He has publicly said he wouldn't do that for the reasons that I just laid out. Uh, so the mere fact that Putin is asking him to do it is a dick move, even if he doesn't plan to like, hold him. Um, and then think about how in the US, you had Mom Donnie talking about, I would lock up Netanyahu if I could. So like, you don't only have to worry about Putin, you've got to worry about people around Putin that are like, fuck this kid, I'm taking him in. So, yeah, like, no way. And Putin could then have the cover of like, whoa, I wasn't the one that moved on him.

• 1:29:20Tom Bilyeu?

  So it's like, bro, there's too many things. Like, what do you mean he died of eating some radioactive isotope? Like, who could have known? So, no, hard pass.

• 1:29:30Speaker 03

  Cool. All right, going over to AI now, there have been some major scientific breakthroughs in science, in mathematics, in physics.

• 1:29:39Tom Bilyeu?

  This is getting exciting.

• 1:29:40Speaker 03

  Yeah, I don't know. Are we excited or is this extra, some, extras?

• 1:29:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Existential?

• 1:29:45Speaker 03

  Thank you. Dread?

• 1:29:47Tom Bilyeu?

  It's a bit of both. That, welcome to AI.

• 1:29:49Speaker 03

  Suicide, what's happening?

• 1:29:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, whoa, man, the poor mathematicians are not taking this well. Uh, but this really is good news. The recent rush of foundational scientific breakthroughs that have been made by AI are, they're crazy, man. This is so exciting. Over the last several months, anthropic scientists have actually been embedded with six drug developers. So you got Bristol-Myers Squibb, uh, Generate Bio Medicines, Big Hat Biosciences, quite the name, Divergence Labs and Veta, uh, and the Venture for, uh, Column Group. So the results are now starting to come in. They're absolutely awesome. It's early, so you know, let's not overindex, but it really is very exciting. Generate wants a CAR-T cell therapy, which already works, by the way, in blood cancers, but they want to have it work against solid tumors.

• 1:30:35Tom Bilyeu?

  And six of its scientists use Claude to redesign a single stretch of the therapy's genetic code. One version came out about 70% shorter and in the lab, that led immune cells produce roughly 10 times as many cancer spotting receptors while killing tumor cells more efficiently. Guys, I know this stuff is like a bit esoteric if you're not like in that world, but the, the rate of progress is starting to be startling in the best way possible. Like, it, look, it's gonna take 10 years. A lot of this stuff is gonna have to be tested. But the fact that we're getting these kind of breakthroughs at the rate that we're getting them is really exciting if you care about extending human life.

• 1:31:19Tom Bilyeu?

  So cancer has been a scourge forever. If you guys have ever read the book, uh, The Emperor of All Maladies about cancer, it, it is a daunting task to deal with. And we launched the war on cancer, God knows how many years ago, and we have not been making progress. So the fact that now AI is able to help us make more rapid progress on the back of some truly incredible human breakthroughs, by the way, pre-AI, but now those getting together and starting to make some of these radical breakthroughs is really exciting. Divergence Labs is going after food allergies. They're, um, pulling the allergy antibody off immune cells rather than just mopping it up in the blood. So, uh, very exciting new approach.

• 1:32:01Tom Bilyeu?

  Claude generated roughly 35,000 antibody designs in about a month. That rate of being able to, uh, create novel biological objects, I'm not sure what the right word to use there, but it's absolutely thrilling to see that we're beginning to understand the body well enough. And a lot of this is on the back of protein folding. And what we've been able to do with AI there in terms of predicting exactly the shapes, uh, and what mechanics those shapes make possible, and then being able to leverage that to come up with novel shapes that would be able to do things in the body is really, really incredible. Uh, and so you've got AI doing that largely on its own, which would be exciting. It means you can just set and run it and do hundreds of years of research in very short period of time.

• 1:32:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, early tests found hits for both halves of the drug and three designs beat the existing standard medication at actually dislodging the antibodies that are causing these allergies. So if you're like me and you're a long-term allergy sufferer, ooh, buddy, this is very exciting. Uh, and Vida pointed Claude at over a thousand pages of manufacturing records and it caught basically 11 issues that human reviewers also found. So showing that it's able to do the same quality of work that humans can do. And it flagged seven things that they'd missed and recut review time from 25 hours to under three.

• 1:33:24Tom Bilyeu?

  So that means we're going to be able to analyze, research a lot faster and at a, so far, at a higher degree of accuracy. So one of the big problems that we suffer from in making these breakthroughs is how isolated everything is. All the different labs, there's so much research out there that no one researcher can go through at all. There's no way to stay on top of it, even if you made that your full-time job. Without AIs, it's quite literally impossible to stay on top of all that stuff. So the fact that they're able to make this happen is really exciting. Now, anthropic. Has its own labs that are up and running as well. So it bought Mithril Medicine, which was a one-person company that used Claude to coordinate 11 outside labs

• 1:34:07Tom Bilyeu?

  and took a candidate for a rare childhood muscular dystrophy from idea to promising mouse results in under 18 months, which in medicine is just lightning fast. Anthropic expects that drug, that drug, excuse me, could reach human trials by late 2028. So right around the corner. Now, all of this is preclinical, so take that for what it's worth. It still has to be given to human patients at the right time in the testing protocols. But nonetheless, it's very exciting. And then on top of that, you've got OpenAI making their own announcement. So Greg Brockman, the co-founder and president, said they're making some huge breakthroughs on the scientific front. So OpenAI models have proved something called the local smoothing conjecture.

• 1:34:51Tom Bilyeu?

  It's a 1991 problem in harmonic analysis. And there was, I think, a human did it in three or four dimensions. And now AI is able to do it in all the dimensions. I'd be lying if I said I knew how many dimensions there actually were. But the fact that it can solve for more dimensions than humans have been able to do should allow progress there to start happening more rapidly. Mathematicians had only cracked the lower dimension. So this is a pretty useful breakthrough. The OpenAI's models disprove the exponential time hypothesis, which is a 1999 assumption that hundreds of computer science papers had rested on. So the fact that people were building on basically a dead end and they've been able to unwind that is going to be very useful.

• 1:35:36Tom Bilyeu?

  And OpenAI has produced an existence proof for the quantum field theory behind the strong nuclear force. So this is the part where I'll remind everybody that the way the universe works is mathematics, that mathematics is the computation that the universe runs in order to give us this. Everything that we see is a result of mathematical computation. So once you understand the computation, then you can effectively run elements of the universe at will. This is what gave us nuclear power, GPS. We unlock the mathematics and it allows us to do things that we weren't able to do previously. So being able to make these kind of foundational mathematical discoveries is incredible in terms of what it could mean for the future.

• 1:36:20Tom Bilyeu?

  So we'll ultimately see what this turns into. These need to become things that we can actually interface with. But the rate of these breakthroughs is what people need to pay attention to. It is very exciting if you want to see the world advance and start seeing more science fiction become science fact. So for me, even though, yes, I do feel like I'm looking at an event horizon and I just can no longer predict what the world looks like on the other side of it. It still is pretty thrilling. The number of things that will be beneficial to humans, human life, what we're able to do and create is very thrilling.

• 1:36:53Speaker 03

  Yeah, hopefully we can cure some stuff. I don't know if you heard the saying, I see in a tweet, I should have pulled it, where Silicon Valley engineers are now picking up engineering because they're like, AI is going to solve cancer or picking up smoking, excuse me.

• 1:37:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I was like, the engineers are picking up engineering.

• 1:37:06Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:37:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I imagine that's a bit of a joke. I think they would be far wiser going, how do I fold a protein so that I get the impacts of smoking a cigarette without any negative repercussions? Because the last thing you want to do, no matter how good the cures for cancer get, is go through them. So yeah, I don't even like going to the dentist. I really don't want to go through advanced chemotherapy, no matter how effective it might get. So unless you're giving me some elixir that tastes amazing and just makes me feel better while curing my cancer, I'd rather not get cancer in the first place. So yeah, that ill-advised in my estimation.

• 1:37:43Speaker 03

  That's funny. Okay, we got a couple of quick hits. There has been a staggering amount of countries that are telling their citizens to be emergency prepared.

• 1:37:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 1:37:54Speaker 03

  There's been ranges from 72 hours to 30 days. Don Bongino, former FBI director, just announced a US should take it for about 30 days. The list of countries, Belgium, 72 hours. Ireland just said be emergency ready, period. France, 72 hours, Germany, three to 10 days, Netherlands, 72 hours. Poland, Sweden, Sweden one week, Norway one week, Finland 72. The list is getting kind of crazy.

• 1:38:16Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 1:38:18Speaker 03

  Do you have this equal sentiment? What do you think is causing all these countries to say this right now at this time?

• 1:38:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I mean, listen, from the people that have talked openly about it, there is no specific threat. So nobody's like, hey, this bad thing is about to happen. There was much ado made yesterday because Japan is expected to make an announcement about preparedness. And their punchline is about an earthquake. It's like Japan is known for their earthquakes. So the fact that there is enough instability in the world that's got everybody a little bit on edge is making people say, hey, you know what, like we've seen between the cyber attacks and AI is getting more advanced and that's good, but it also is a knife that cuts both ways. So there could be something there. We've got instability in the Middle East. We've got instability in Europe. And so it's like, yeah, probably a good idea.

• 1:39:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Hey, everybody, while it's on our minds, just remember to have access to a little bit of cash, have access to water, things like that. It's good advice. Now, it definitely gives you a read on the underlying sentiment that everybody feels uneasy. And so everybody's taking the opportunity to get people moving now before there is some acute thing that will cause a run on toilet paper like COVID did. So it's good advice. People should be doing it anyway. People should have this kind of preparedness at all times. But nobody credible has reported on anything that like, oh, this is based on this specific thing. It's just for my read, this is what happens when you have the entire world shuffling the world order.

• 1:39:52Tom Bilyeu?

  You've got open conflicts in Russia, Ukraine, open conflicts in the Middle East, instability all across Europe politically. You've got what's going on in Brazil with potential corruption and lawfare. So it's like, you couple that with the most radical technological transition that humans have ever gone through. And people are going to feel some type of way about like, oh, that change could hit a bump. And so that's all true. People should be ready, but nobody should be panicking. There's nothing on the horizon that's specific.

• 1:40:23Speaker 03

  Got it. Next beat, we have Candace Owens. Shout out to my girl.

• 1:40:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, I don't know where we're going with this. I haven't heard about this.

• 1:40:29Speaker 03

  Candace Owens beat the charge.

• 1:40:30Tom Bilyeu?

  No way.

• 1:40:31Speaker 03

  Talking junk about her. They said France is going to take her down. Trump was calling her up like, hey, I got a French guy that's annoying me. I need you to back it up on the recording. She beat the charge. Shout out to Candace Owens.

• 1:40:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh my.

• 1:40:43Speaker 03

  Y'all can't shut that girl up, no matter how hard y'all try.

• 1:40:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Hold on, I need the deeds here.

• 1:40:47Speaker 03

  They dismissed the lawsuit, Macron dismissed the lawsuit against them.

• 1:40:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, I'm reading from the tweet now. "This case represents one of the grossest legal overreaches by a foreign government leader in human history. A sitting president attempted to personally bankrupt a single podcaster from outside the nation in which he governs and to formally reiterate, since many reporters willfully lied about this. Most important detail, I was never," all caps, "being sued for stating that Bridget Macron was born a male. I was instead being sued for discussing MKUltra and for allegedly accusing the first lady of theft from her sister." Wow, I am tremendously grateful to the Delaware courts. This is fucking wild, dude. We're expect this to come up on Friday. This is crazy, man. How?

• 1:41:33Speaker 03

  Teflon Candace.

• 1:41:35Tom Bilyeu?

  She is the Teflon Don. This is wild, man. When she, who was that guy that she went up against?

• 1:41:42Speaker 03

  Andrew Wilson.

• 1:41:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Andrew Wilson. When she dismantled him, I was like, you guys fuck around and find out with Candace, man. I don't understand how people keep saying she's dumb. Candace is not dumb. What the fuck is wrong with you people? She may be wrong. She may be out of her mind. She may be reasoning from emotion. She may mistake her intuition for fact. All of that may be true, but she is not dumb. It is so wild to watch people clock Candace dumb, Trump dumb. People call Elon dumb. I'm like, you people are retarded. What are you doing? Wild, wild, wild. Bro, this one is shocking to me.

• 1:42:22Speaker 03

  Teflon Candace can nothing can take her down.

• 1:42:25Tom Bilyeu?

  This is crazy. She pops off with the most unhinged shit. And she, dude, I need to know the advice that she's getting. Like, this is very impressive. I, dude, Candace, let's just say that I don't watch a lot of her content because I don't agree with the way that she analyzes the universe. But oh my goodness, this is very impressive. You can't deny.

• 1:42:50Speaker 03

  All right.

• 1:42:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Go get him, Candace.

• 1:42:52Speaker 03

  Rolling Stones just released their top rock songs of the 21st century. For those in the back, that's everything after January 1st, 2001. Number one was Maps by Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Seven Nation Army, The White Stripes, Mr. Brightside, My Karaoke Song, The Killers, Good For You, Olivia Rodrigo, The National Anthem, Radiohead, I Know The End, Phoebe Bridgers, Last Night, The Strokes, 99 Problems, Jay-Z, I Bet You Look Good on the Dance Floor, Arctic Monkeys, and Impossible Germany, Wilco. Most of these are like radio hits or I heard it at the bar or something like that. I have no immediate beef, but I'm not a rockhead. So leaving it out there for the rockheads.

• 1:43:26Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't know Impossible Germany.

• 1:43:29Speaker 03

  Oh, number four, oh, right. Leave Olivia Rodrigo alone, okay?

• 1:43:34Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't think I know.

• 1:43:35Speaker 03

  Teenagers like rock too, okay?

• 1:43:36Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm a little scandalized, but there are several on here I don't even know. So Good For You, maybe I know it if I heard it, but certainly don't know by name. The National Anthem by Radiohead, I definitely don't know. I Know The End, don't know by name. Late Night, I know The Strokes so well.

• 1:43:50Speaker 03

  Last Night.

• 1:43:53Tom Bilyeu?

  99 Problems is absolutely phenomenal. I Bet You Look Good on the Dance Floor, not sure.

• 1:43:59Speaker 03

  That's like, that's like mall music. Like you heard, I Bet You Look Good on the Dance Floor, like a Zara or something like that. Like you've heard that.

• 1:44:06Tom Bilyeu?

  You assume that I leave the house.

• 1:44:08Speaker 03

  The three days that you go out and you shop, that's when you would hear, I Bet You Look Good on the Dance Floor. Cool, if you guys have any beef in the chat, throw it in the chat. But I thought it was a pretty rounded about list. There was nothing that was like, how dare they?

• 1:44:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Why are we doing it already, though?

• 1:44:21Speaker 03

  Because Rolling Stones needs content. It's a content.

• 1:44:25Speaker 07

  I'm surprised White Stripes is as high as it is, though. Because that's a good song, but Seven Nation Army being that high is shocking.

• 1:44:30Tom Bilyeu?

  Seven Nation Army, though, has become like the anthem at every high school rally.

• 1:44:35Speaker 07

  I did play that in high school, yeah.

• 1:44:36Speaker 03

  I was saying, and for since 2001, for it to still be relevant now in 2020. That's why I'm like, some of these things I've heard a couple of weeks ago. So I was like, I can't get mad at this ranking.

• 1:44:44Speaker 07

  I always think of the Battlefield 1 trailer. I think that's the best usage of that song. I don't know if you've seen that. Highly recommend.

• 1:44:50Speaker 03

  Nice, nice. Next up on the quick hits, the Apple's $2,000 new foldable smartphone. The iPhone Duo is facing early compla- huh? You said three, it said two. Okay, we'll talk, we'll talk. G got the upgrade, G got the terabyte version, so his cost three. Um, long story short, though, there's been some problems with the hinge in the cracks.

• 1:45:10Tom Bilyeu?

  This actually made me not buy it.

• 1:45:12Speaker 03

  The hinge in the thing?

• 1:45:13Tom Bilyeu?

  I was literally like about to get it and then I was like, eh, I don't know, I want to deal with that. We'll, we'll see how this plays out. But it is pretty cool, but it's funny how long flip phones have been out. But if you're in the Apple ecosystem, you're so locked from like, uh, all my photos and stuff. So, yeah. To Apple users, this is like a brand new thing, but Samsung is laughing their ass off that they've had.

• 1:45:36Speaker 03

  Literally, my sister has the flip phone, she had it for like four years. And her first one used to have the line problem and me and my brother made fun of her. She upgraded to the second one. I think she has to fold three or four, whatever it was. And there's no line now. So now it's like.

• 1:45:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Wild that you can fold that stuff and it doesn't create a problem. Yeah, we'll see what happens. Apple has been in decline for a while, man. Those guys have not been able to get their shit together. Unfortunately, this is what happens when. So a founder, when, when you have a mega success like Apple, what you're looking at is a founder that has like very counterintuitive decision-making and, um, cause success is really about, you've got the timing right and you read people in a way that nobody else is. And when you get that right and you're in lockstep with somebody, it's very incredible to see. And so from his ability to make these incredible products, Apple as we know it was born. But then he hands off the reins, understandably, from a fiduciary responsibility perspective, he hands it off to Tim Cook.

• 1:46:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Tim Cook, unbelievable operator in terms of the, um, things that he did from a logistical standpoint, from the manufacturing in China, getting the manufacturing right, getting margins right. Unbelievable. That guy knows how to run a company when you're trying to maximize shareholder value. But not a product guy and Apple is going to live and die by their products. And man, they have had product miss after product miss. So it'll be interesting to see if this ends up like doing anything for them, or if they just feel like they're a copycat, they're not quite doing it quite as well. Now I saw Marquis Brownlee's breakdown of this and he was relatively positive. Um, about it. So this might be much ado about nothing and maybe a week from now I'll get one because we realize that this is like a really, really small number.

• 1:47:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Um, but yeah, I do worry that Apple, even though their stock is still just absolute.

• 1:47:25Speaker 03

  I'm not gonna lie, I had beef with Apple too, but Apple is a utility. There's Apple devices all over. Apple hasn't had an iPhone innovation in 12 years, but yet there's an Apple price product on every desk, every ecosystem is like, they stopped being the first and they were just like, you just need us now. So it's like car keys, like there's no innovative car keys, but everybody has the file. So I feel like Apple is now becoming that like utility company versus.

• 1:47:48Tom Bilyeu?

  I just want to see somebody do something really dope. Oh, speaking of which, I think I even pulled this, pull this up.

• 1:47:53Speaker 03

  Uh, Andrel?

• 1:47:54Tom Bilyeu?

  Andrel, yeah. So your boy Lucky Palmer, so he was making all these like retro gaming consoles, which was very weird. So this is a weapons manufacturer. So he's the guy that made the Oculus, uh, sells it to, um, Meta for whatever, $2 billion. And has since translated that into becoming one of the probably world's largest weapons manufacturer. Uh, and is hell bent to get us out of our reliance with China. And so I'll let him speak for himself, but play the clip. This is pretty interesting.

• 1:48:28Speaker 04

  America built the first electronic computer to win a war. During World War II, the US Army Ordnance Corps needed a faster way to accurately calculate artillery firing trajectories. So American engineers built the world's first modern computer and that breakthrough kicked off an entire industry that changed the world. Then we gave it away. We outsourced the manufacturing of the technology that we invented. Now we depend on other countries, including our greatest strategic adversaries, to make all of the hardware that runs our businesses, powers our economy and protects our national security. That's insane. Any country that can't build its own computers can't secure them. If you don't control your technology, you can't control your future.

• 1:49:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Facts.

• 1:49:10Speaker 04

  80 years ago, America pioneered modern computing to defend our nation. Now we're bringing it home. This is blue chip. American designed, American built. Other companies might design their computers in the US, Andrel makes them here.

• 1:49:25Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, it's a big deal.

• 1:49:26Speaker 04

  We're making parts out of metals that the US knows how to extract, knows how to refine, knows how to process and knows how to mill at scale at a reasonable price. And that goes for the entire laptop. The same thing goes for the battery technology.

• 1:49:38Tom Bilyeu?

  I want to know about the chips.

• 1:49:39Speaker 04

  We need to design things that survive very, very rough environments. So what we've designed is a chassis that makes it very, very easy to replace the bottom shell.

• 1:49:49Tom Bilyeu?

  So, um, what I really like about Palmer Lucky is this is somebody who is helping to reinvigorate the way that Americans think about America. I think it's absolutely necessary that we begin to separate ourselves away from China and people that are um, dismissive of that are absolutely out of their minds. Um, the reality is that you cannot, as he was saying, have an adversary. Uh, even if you try to move forward with them peacefully, you can't have an adversary be able to choke you out from access to technology perspective. It's just completely nonsensical. And as he was talking, um, it just reminded me like him telling the story about the fact that we invented the original computer

• 1:50:30Tom Bilyeu?

  uh, as a form of defense, the narrative that we've been telling each other, telling our kids about America for so long is so ridiculous. Uh, oh, this is just a completely racist nation. It's just founded on slavery. That's all we are, is such an absurd farce that we don't tell people the story of all the innovations, all the incredible things that we've done. And people don't even understand that one of the things that America has done as an innovation is show how far an idea of a nation state can go. That we can take people from wildly different ethnic backgrounds and bring them together under one umbrella, one sense of national identity that we are American.

• 1:51:10Tom Bilyeu?

  And that is incredibly powerful. And what we're seeing in Europe now is people breaking back into these tribal factions. I mean shit, what we're seeing in Dearborn, Michigan is people breaking back into tribal factions. What we should be doing is finding ways to get people to integrate. So the, the cool thing about America is it shouldn't matter if you're Muslim or you're Catholic, like none of that matters. Come one, come all, that what we feel is a sense of shared national identity under the brand of being American. And so getting people excited about that again, I think would be incredibly beneficial to this country. But people don't even have this sense that like unifying under a national banner is good.

• 1:51:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Like that's become just an absolute taboo. People don't want to talk about it. But what are your other options? That you get all this infighting that you fragment into a thousand different factions? Like that's madness. So finding a way to remind Americans of all the extraordinary things that we've done. And feel like unified by that, even if you literally just got off the boat. Like making that a part of your identity and a part of what you connect to is incredibly important. So yeah, shout out to my boy, uh, Palmer Lucky. I think this is really exciting to see him actually make this in the US. Talk about things that will actually benefit the working class.

• 1:52:31Tom Bilyeu?

  This is a huge step in that direction, doing it with things that we know how to mine and control, I think is absolutely phenomenal. We need to look into the chips because if he's making the chips himself, that would also be a big breakthrough. I'd be a little surprised by that.

• 1:52:44Speaker 03

  We have the TSMC in Arizona now, so he could technically have.

• 1:52:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, yeah. Great point. Maybe that's what he's doing. So anyway, this is exciting and I would love to see Americans get re-excited about all the things that we have done as a collective culture. Uh, and yeah, for everybody to re-embrace that identity, to make ourselves strong, to focus on manufacturing here in the US. All that stuff goes a very long way.

• 1:53:07Speaker 03

  All right, we got some super chats.

• 1:53:09Speaker 07

  Yes, we do.

• 1:53:09Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's go.

• 1:53:10Speaker 07

  First up on the super chats, Picasso Impaler says, dude, Drew, apologies. Uh, sorry to hear about your dad.

• 1:53:16Tom Bilyeu?

  Wait, wait, wait, wait. Picasso Impaler?

• 1:53:18Speaker 07

  Yes.

• 1:53:19Tom Bilyeu?

  The fuck?

• 1:53:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, you, you win points. That is a fascinating name. Sorry, cause he was saying something deep about Drew. Let's start that over.

• 1:53:26Speaker 07

  I said my condolences. Go grab a beer on me.

• 1:53:29Speaker 03

  Thank you, Picasso. I messaged him in the chat. I really appreciate that.

• 1:53:32Tom Bilyeu?

  That is, that is very kind.

• 1:53:34Speaker 07

  Chris Bureau with a $50 super chat.

• 1:53:36Speaker 03

  Hey, thank you for the $50 super chat. Appreciate that.

• 1:53:39Speaker 07

  Says Tom Chris Bureau in parentheses, unbehavior book, Mouse Utopia, Super Chat.

• 1:53:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Ah, yes.

• 1:53:44Speaker 07

  My reply to your take, I put a YouTube link that I'll send you after this. My AEE AI simulation models learned with about 40 times less compute than standard deep learning data is public on Zenodo and on my website.

• 1:53:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Damn. We, do we have like the next wave of AI engineers in this community? That would be incredible.

• 1:54:05Speaker 07

  We got a couple.

• 1:54:05Tom Bilyeu?

  Chris, that's amazing, man. Yeah, and I love that you're publishing it publicly. That's incredible.

• 1:54:11Speaker 07

  The Sanchez Craft.

• 1:54:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Long may it continue. And by the way, thank you for the support. That's wonderful.

• 1:54:15Speaker 07

  The Sanchez Craft says, took your advice and we hired a chief of staff versus HR as our first management hire to bring structure to chaos. How did you choose a system? EOS, scaling up or good to great? What's the best way to build a real enterprise?

• 1:54:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, a lot of this is going to depend on your scale, but if you think about it, rather than trying to slot into an exact framework, you've got to think about what the outputs of your system are. So for us here, for instance, because we are very close to the actual thing that we output, so I am here creating a product that we will then output and I want to minimize the distance between me and that final product. So what we ended up doing, because we expect everybody here in the age of AI and especially being a media company, we expect people to be doers, not just managers. So even if somebody has people that they manage, like our man Drew, Drew also does some of the thing, right? So that for us was the way that we were trying to do it.

• 1:55:14Tom Bilyeu?

  We want to build as flat of a structure as we can. We want to make sure that everybody's doing instead of executing. We wanted to eliminate the middle management layer. And so any system that would push us towards doing that is going to be ruled out. Now, as you get bigger, that may become more and more difficult. And not that you can't have the expectation that everybody's a doer, but that you are going to need to build in reporting structures so that everybody understands, okay, what are my KPIs? What am I held accountable to? Who do I go to if there's a problem? Now, I think Elon does the best job of building that structure where people still have an expectation on them that they speak up so that everybody is trying to make sure that the problem is known, that they don't have to get permission to test something out, that

• 1:55:59Tom Bilyeu?

  they can try it. Now, you need to put structure around exactly how people are meant to do that so that you don't get people pulling at the same resources in different directions. So all of that is going to become incredibly important. What we use are KPIs. So everybody knows what their KPI is. They know exactly what the metric is that they need to do to be held accountable. We make sure that they have what they need in order to hit that KPI. But we tried OKRs for a while and we found that OKRs for the size of company that we were at and how much of our core business was getting the same thing done well at an ever increasing like performance, that OKRs, which are far better at handling new things, was not working as well for us. So we re-grounded on like very tactical things.

• 1:56:43Tom Bilyeu?

  So anyway, it's very hard to tell somebody how they should structure their organization without a lot of information. But if you think about that, what's the output? What are the risks in your organization for us? Having middle management became a risk because somebody like a community manager that's actually hearing what people in our community hate are not able to affect the product. And so that kind of thing becomes a bad, that becomes a bottleneck for actually improving your product. So you've got to figure out what those things are that are likely to stymie the improvement of your product and eliminate those. EOS is something that gets a lot of love from people. We've never deployed it faithfully, so I couldn't speak to that. We've always done everything bespoke.

• 1:57:25Tom Bilyeu?

  But KPIs, if I had to like high level what we do.

• 1:57:29Speaker 07

  DK the Sage says, as part of the great filter theory, do you think AI is on an epigenetic trigger that will further plummet birth rates?

• 1:57:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes. So it's interesting to say it as an epigenetic trigger.

• 1:57:49Tom Bilyeu?

  I really don't like talking about this, but I do think on a long enough timeline that what you're going to see is that humans end up upgrading themselves partly to keep up with AI and partly because they can. And that you'll see a bifurcation of the species. You'll see people that are what I call the new Amish, that will not engage with technology in any way, shape or form. And then you will see people that will, it will start with people that have no choice because they're a quadriplegic or whatever, or they're deaf. And so they get a cochlear implant. And then suddenly it becomes, well, I have normal vision, but I want the X-ray vision upgrade. And people will be swapping their organs in and out.

• 1:58:34Tom Bilyeu?

  It's gonna get wild, especially if you stretch this out to like a 50 year or 100 year time horizon. Imagine how much things have changed since the seventies, man. Now imagine at a much faster rate of change, the next 50 years. It's going to get pretty wild. And just again, there are already people that have brain computer interfaces installed today and they're working. So that's going to get really, really wild. So yes, is the short answer. I expect, I expect that that is going to impact birth rates. So, yeah.

• 1:59:10Speaker 07

  That's it for Super Chats.

• 1:59:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I hate ending on that note. That one is going to be really weird. We are as a society going to have to deal with that. I think that that one is going to get a little bit violent. I think that people are going to have religious pushback on that. That is, we're going to have to wade our way through. We're all holding our breath to find out if history is going to be vindicated once again and that AI will create more new jobs than it eliminates. Just that it, it will shake up for a generation. It will change what people do because you're going to have a lot of people that will be unable or unwilling to adjust to a world with AI. It's going to be tough, man. Like there's no simple way.

• 1:59:57Tom Bilyeu?

  And then it will force us to confront religious questions around what does it mean to be human? Is it a violation to step outside of that? What does it mean to create life? And are we creating an artificial species that we're essentially giving rise to another conscious being? So yeah, unfortunately, the AI question will not just be one of stock market. It will not just be one of jobs. It is going to be a truly existential question about the nature of humanity itself. And it's going to play out over the next 10 to 20 years in terms of us having to confront that. I think the first time somebody upgrades an already working part of their body, that's

• 2:00:42Tom Bilyeu?

  going to draw a lot of comments. I also think the artificial womb is going to get people pretty up in arms. We're already seeing artificial lab grown meat make its way forward. All of that stuff is going to be accelerated by AI. It's going to be wild. And then as we talk about some of these novel mathematics being solved by AI, you are also going to see us have the kind of steps forward that we saw with Einstein. We're going to see a leap forward made by somebody, made by an AI that has this kind of tremendous knock on effect. All right. With that, it's fun to think about, a little bit scary. I get it. I certainly forgive anybody that is anxious about that. There will be huge, huge upsides.

• 2:01:26Tom Bilyeu?

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• 2:02:11Tom Bilyeu?

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