NFL Over/Unders, an Oscars Preview, and a Brady-Pats Feud | With Cousin Sal, Sean Fennessey, and Seth Wickersham

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to guess the NFL over/unders for win totals (2:30). Then, Sean Fennessey hops on to talk about the Academy Awards subplots (01:12:17). Finally, Seth Wickersham joins to discuss Tom Brady’s complicated relationship with the Patriots and QBs as talked about in his book, ‘American Kings: A Biography of the Quarterback’ (01:56:02). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Cousin Sal, Seth Wickersham, and Sean Fennessey Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Sam’s Club | Join The Club of Yes And Uber Eats: Score Gameday deals all tournament long The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 1:36Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by Sam's Club. We are also presented by The Ringer Podcast Network, where we put up a new Rewatchables episode on Monday night. It was the second movie of CR Month. Me, Chris Ryan, Pal Brandt, we did Fargo. 30th anniversary of the movie this week, too, so it was fun timing for that one. Had a great time. Next movie that's coming up Monday night is going to be To Live and Die in L.A., which, if you have not seen it, just an all-time 80s movie. If you liked Heat, if you liked these gritty crime dramas, highly recommend, so you have a few days to check that one out. We have an action-packed podcast on this one. Cousin Sal and I are going to break down all the NFL over-unders that just came out on FanDuel and our instant reactions to that.

• 2:22Bill Simmons?

  Sean Fennessey, we're talking Oscars because the Oscars are Sunday night. He's going live on Netflix and we had to talk about best actor and some of the other subplots that popped up. And then if that's not enough, in this action-packed, gigantic podcast, our old friend Seth Wickersham came on to talk about Brady's bizarre relationship with Patriots and everything we've learned about the quarterback position, which he covered in his book, American Kings. So we have NFL over-unders, we have the Oscars, we have the Patriots quarterbacks. All coming next, we're going to take a break, Pearl Jam, and then Cousin Sal. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by Sam's Club. It is that time of the year when you just got to get in your car and go somewhere. Done that plenty of times in my life.

• 3:07Bill Simmons?

  Nowhere gets you ready to go, quite like Sam's Club. Snacks, the gear, super low prices on gas. They got a bunch of stuff that keep you and the whole crew rolling. And here's what you gotta do. You gotta join the club of yes and at sam'sclub.com/yesand. You must be 18 years or older to purchase a membership. A membership is subject to qualifications. Visit sam'sclub.com/yesand for details.

• 4:01Bill Simmons?

  All right, recording this part of the podcast, it is 2:45 Pacific time. We got word today, Cousin Sal, that FanDuel Sportsbook was going to release their NFL over-unders for win totals. Which we love. I, I basically begged them to wait. I was gonna do this live on Netflix, but they had the World Baseball Classic and they, they couldn't accommodate us. So we're just doing it. We're doing it live here. We're gonna run it as fast as possible.

• 4:25Speaker 04

  You did text me this weekend. You like, you're on call. This could happen. You could be betting Bethune-Cookman to win some shitty conference tournament and we're just gonna have to do this. We're gonna have to go through these.

• 4:35Bill Simmons?

  Be ready. I can't wait. So they mailed them to us. Now you've done some ringer gambling shows where you've tried to guess. Some of the, some of the, on the other markets, some of the lines have come out. I have intentionally avoided everything. I know nothing. All I know are the Super Bowl odds for each team. So you have all the odds that are gonna come out on FanDuel. We're gonna try to guess. We did this last year and here's what I learned from last year. My reaction, if it was too bad one way, was actually probably, probably I'm the one that's wrong. Cause the Niners was the one that jumped out last year like, oh my God, that's crazy. I can't wait to bet that. And the Niners.

• 5:16Speaker 04

  Believe they were favored. They were 10 and a half. They were favored to win the division and were like, there's no way that we're gonna win the division. We were right about that, except they won 13 games.

• 5:26Bill Simmons?

  So we nailed it, except for the four losses the entire year. There was a couple that seemed low, like the Patriots. I remember we were like, huh. Like there's, they got Vrabel already. There's some signs. So anyway, I factored that into all my guesses. What we're gonna do is you have the document. We're gonna go through each team. I'm gonna present my guess and then you're gonna give us the answer and tell you if you thought it was higher or low. So you wanna just do divisions?

• 5:51Speaker 04

  Let's do it. Let's start with yours, right?

• 5:53Bill Simmons?

  All right. We'll do AFC East. And I had, so the AFC East is playing AFC West and NFC North, which I think is in the running for hardest combo. So they have eight games against those two divisions. NFC West of Vegas is decent. All of those games could be tough. And then NFC North, same thing. Like Minnesota might be the only easy game. So. From what we learned last year with this game, maybe it skews a little low. Uh, first one is Buffalo and I guessed 11 and a half wins for this, so.

• 6:23Speaker 04

  Okay. I think that'd be a good guess because based on their past, you know, they're a 12-1 team normally. They were a 12-1 team last year. Um, they have a new head coach. Fandel is setting them at 10 and a half.

• 6:36Bill Simmons?

  Ooh, okay. So that's part of the schedule thing then.

• 6:40Speaker 04

  Mm-hmm.

• 6:40Bill Simmons?

  Right? That they don't like that. They're a second place schedule. They're 11-1 to win the Super Bowl. The new coach, I can't tell if that's, that might just be a wash, right?

• 6:51Speaker 04

  Right. Yeah, I think, look, you know how it is with Josh Allen. You're not going to want to get against him, even if he has seven wins in November. You know, like they could still get to 12 or 13. I will tell you ahead of time, the AFC East and the NFC South have the hardest schedules.

• 7:07Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 7:08Speaker 04

  I'll put that out there.

• 7:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, yeah. Well, in this case, they play the Jets twice and Miami twice. Two teams that there's a lot of signs. Guess what? Either of those teams might not be good. My team, the New England Patriots, uh, 18-1, they have a first place schedule. So this is just classic. Perfect, perfect storm of an awesome, easy schedule last year. And now we're going to get hard this year. And, uh, I still went 10 and a half, but I might be a win high.

• 7:34Speaker 04

  You're, you're going to get hard. You're going to go real soft, real fast because it's nine and a half.

• 7:39Bill Simmons?

  Oof.

• 7:40Speaker 04

  And that is exactly what you're talking about. The schedule is tough. You play a first place schedule and you're going to play all those AFC West and NFC North teams. And, uh, I don't know, they waited for Romeo Dobbs, which you're, you're going to have to throw in 13 million just for the giant helmet alone. That's a lot of hard plastic you gotta pay for.

• 7:58Bill Simmons?

  The first thing I thought of was, I went and I researched the concussion. So he had two during the 24 season, one near the end, and then one two months later when he was wearing the concussion helmet in the playoffs, but. The price is fine. I mean, that's that that 15 to 20 million range for a receiver. Um, I don't think he's a number one receiver, but he's kind of an elevated number two, good playoff guy. And they got

• 8:23Speaker 04

  You like that better than A.J. Brown. You didn't want to overcharge A.J. Brown. You wanted Pierce, I think, right?

• 8:28Bill Simmons?

  Really wanted Pierce and I don't know what happened with that, whether that was possible or not, but uh, it's, I mean, Pierce was on McAfee. The moment all those signings were being announced, like I never wanted to leave, so maybe that wasn't realistic. I, uh, the Vera Tucker thing, they signed two guys that worried me from a durability standpoint. The schedule worries me. We, we still don't know if, how healthy Drake may, what happened to him in the playoffs. Super Bowl hangover, tho- those stats are bad, harder schedule. Um, there's a lot to be nervous about, so.

• 9:00Speaker 04

  They are one of two teams whose win total projected is four and a half games lower than what they presented last year. So they're nine and a half. They were 14, they had 14 wins.

• 9:11Bill Simmons?

  I'll just start making excuses. Yeah, I'm gonna start making excuses now.

• 9:14Speaker 04

  Skip this year.

• 9:15Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna go glass half empty for six months and then, you know, if anything good happens, there we go.

• 9:21Speaker 04

  Roman Anthony, he's good.

• 9:22Bill Simmons?

  Jets, five and a half, I went?

• 9:27Speaker 04

  Good job by you. Exactly. Yeah. Coming off a three win year. Is this what took Fandel so long? Do they want to see if Gino was coming back for sure?

• 9:37Bill Simmons?

  They probably bumped them down a win.

• 9:39Speaker 04

  Yeah, no kidding.

• 9:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I mean, it's just the hits keep coming for Jets fans. I actually, I thought Malik Willis would have been an interesting one for them. And I thought when Miami paid, Miami's next. Uh, we'll just do them now. I guess four and a half for Miami.

• 9:54Speaker 04

  Good. Right on. Okay. Right on. And I think that's fair. I feel like they're trying a little. I mean, that is where Malik Willis went. What, he gets 68 million for three years? So that's a lot to pay a backup if that's the plan to get that rich quarterback draft in 26, right?

• 10:10Bill Simmons?

  Right. Well, didn't you, I thought he was gonna, I thought it was gonna start with a three. I predicted that last week when I had, uh, the Dannies on. Maybe there wasn't as big of a market. I mean, just four and a half is the right price when you think they bought out Tyreek. They're, they're, they're bought out Tua. I mean, that's one of the worst contracts in the history of the league. So they're paying those guys, what, 70 million combined just to go away for the season?

• 10:36Speaker 04

  Right.

• 10:36Bill Simmons?

  I don't know what the cap hit is, but it's not great. And who's Malik Willis throwing to? Just Jalen Waddle? And whoever they get in the draft?

• 10:44Speaker 04

  It's bad news for sure. I do think though, the Jets, do you want to do like for each division? If preliminarily which, what sticks out at you? Cause the Jets is the one that I would go under. I don't want to go under on a four and a half.

• 10:58Bill Simmons?

  You'd go under?

• 10:59Speaker 04

  I'd go under on the, oh yeah. I mean, Gino, look, someone's pointed out, Gino got Seattle, Sam Darnold, he got the Raiders Mendoza, and he's going to get the Jets Arch Manning. Like it's, it's kind of ridiculous. Like they traded for Minka Fitzpatrick, which would have been a huge deal even a year ago, right?

• 11:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 11:17Speaker 04

  The guy had one interception, which is more than everybody combined on the Jets. But what are they trying? I, I don't think this, the effort is, um, you know, is worthy of a five and a half win season.

• 11:28Bill Simmons?

  It's funny, in my head, I was thinking about all the, all the games they blew and it's like, well, now that they have a new coach. And then I was like, oh no, they didn't, they didn't get rid of the coach. He's, he's coming back with the worst quarterback situation.

• 11:41Speaker 04

  If you're Aaron Glenn, you're like, just fire me now. I have to, I'm going to have 27 losses after two years? That's not good for my future.

• 11:49Bill Simmons?

  Hugh Jackson wants them to keep him. So his two-year record is intact. Yeah. So out of those, I mean, so if you combine those, that's 11 and a half, nine and a half, that's 21. That's, so they're saying 31 is the over under for wins in the division. So that's got to be in the running for a second worst division?

• 12:10Speaker 04

  I got 30. Isn't it, uh?

• 12:12Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I'm adding the wrong things. You're right.

• 12:14Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 12:15Bill Simmons?

  So 10 and a half, not, yeah, yeah. 30.

• 12:18Speaker 04

  That is.

• 12:19Bill Simmons?

  Not great.

• 12:20Speaker 04

  There, I don't want to give it away, but there is a, uh, there is a worst division.

• 12:24Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I know what the worst division is. And by the way, the listeners aren't going to be surprised. Um,

• 12:31Speaker 04

  We can't.

• 12:31Bill Simmons?

  I like none of these picks, just for the record. I mean, we're, we're not going to be doing, get, guess the Lions for the over unders until late August, which makes me super sad. I did get sad today thinking about how long, how long away football is.

• 12:46Speaker 04

  It's a lot. I was gonna look it up.

• 12:47Bill Simmons?

  It's really far away. It's like five and a half months. Yeah, it's like, I mean, we might all be dead by then. Uh, AFC North, AFC North, easy schedule combo for the AFC North teams. They play the AFC South and the NFC East, which I would say shades on the easier side, right?

• 13:05Speaker 04

  Do they play the NFC? Why do I have NFC South written here?

• 13:09Bill Simmons?

  Is that what it is? Did I already make a mistake? We're only not even 10 minutes in the pod.

• 13:13Speaker 04

  This is why we're taping.

• 13:14Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I did write that wrong. You're right. So.

• 13:17Speaker 04

  NFC South, right?

• 13:18Bill Simmons?

  AFC South, NFC South.

• 13:20Speaker 04

  Both Souths, which is typically good.

• 13:22Bill Simmons?

  I'm so fired up. I made a mistake this early. So that's a pretty good combo. Baltimore is the first one. Baltimore's odds are, uh, plus 950 to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel. New coach. The Big Macs Crosby trade, so they cashed in on their first round pick.

• 13:40Bill Simmons?

  I had 10 and a half.

• 13:43Speaker 04

  I think 10 and a half would have been closer to the truth. They have them at 11 and a half. They have them favored to win the AFC.

• 13:51Bill Simmons?

  Wow, 11 and a half?

• 13:51Speaker 04

  That is a giant number. Yeah, there's, I don't want to give it away, but there's not too many 11 and a halves out there. You know, Crosby's great. They lose Linderbaum. They lost a couple of linemen. They lost another edge rusher. They lose some defensive players.

• 14:08Bill Simmons?

  Derrick Henry, a year older. Lamar, Lamar either is healthy the whole year or he's playing five games.

• 14:15Speaker 04

  Right.

• 14:16Bill Simmons?

  And that, so that's my first one. I would, I'm gonna, I'm gonna put a slight under, but some of that has to be the division and the schedule. 12 wins would be a great, a great season for them.

• 14:28Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 14:28Bill Simmons?

  Coming off last year.

• 14:29Speaker 04

  12 and 5. Borough will be a little better. Who knows with Pittsburgh, but they always split anyway. I, I don't know. Yeah, that division is tough, but somehow with that schedule. I mean, they're coming off of eight. They're not going to get eight again, but I'm, I'm not going to go so crazy about Crosby.

• 14:45Bill Simmons?

  Cincinnati, um, third place schedule for them. Baltimore was second place schedule, by the way, I forgot to mention. I had a trouble with this one. It was either a seven and a half or an eight and a half. They spent some money on some defense. They're gonna have a top 15 pick, but I went eight and a half for them because of the schedule.

• 15:05Speaker 04

  I think in real life, they're eight and a half, but Fandel made them nine and a half because everybody pounds they're over. Everybody thinks it's a playoff team every year, double-digit wins. They came off, what, six last year?

• 15:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 15:18Speaker 04

  And, you know, they're expected to come in second in the division, so.

• 15:22Bill Simmons?

  Was this because of the Joe Burrow, Jessica Alba rumors that have already been debunked?

• 15:27Speaker 04

  They're debunked. Wake up, Burrow. You're not dating Alba, but you will have to face Crosby, Garrett, and TJ Watt six times this year.

• 15:36Bill Simmons?

  Oh, Jesus. I mean, if TJ Watt can look like TJ Watt again, that's, that's six tough ones, but yeah, that's a good point. Miles Garrett and Crosby for four times. I mean, the thing with Baltimore, I did like that trade. There's some horrible histories for giving up two first-rounders for a guy. It's basically 0-14 unless you want to give one to Stafford for saying that was success, but they also, as part of that trade, dumped Goff in the trade.

• 16:04Speaker 04

  Right.

• 16:05Bill Simmons?

  So I don't even know, like, if his value was the first-rounders. I was just looking at this. Did you see this list of all the guys? It was Sauce Gardner, Micah Parsons, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Laramie Tunsil, Jamal Adams, Khalil Mack, Jalen Ramsey, Jay Cutler, Ricky Williams, Keyshawn Johnson, Jeff George, Eric Dickerson, and Herschel Walker. So it's like.

• 16:29Speaker 04

  Is this Dancing with the Stars?

• 16:30Bill Simmons?

  This is all guys who've been traded for two first-rounders in the last, like, 40 years.

• 16:35Speaker 04

  Right.

• 16:35Bill Simmons?

  And the only one you can say was a legit win so far was Stafford, but Goff was in that.

• 16:41Speaker 04

  Right.

• 16:42Bill Simmons?

  So you're doing this, you're like, this is just, you're trying to buck history, but I love the idea of Crosby on a good team. We used to talk about him all the time on this pod. Like, it's just every game, you're like, holy shit, that guy's amazing.

• 16:54Speaker 04

  He's for sure great, but yeah, back to the two first round picks. It hurts even more when you say goodbye to one of the best offensive linemen in the game. Like you can't even replace Linderbaum because you don't have first round picks now.

• 17:08Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 17:08Speaker 04

  For a little while. So that's what, that's why I think, I don't know, maybe, maybe it's right around 11 or 12 anyway, but I wouldn't go over here.

• 17:18Bill Simmons?

  It's a lot of money for a center. It's like we've reset the center market. You haven't just reset it. You've blown it up and recreated it. Um, but I, I do wonder if they're, one thing I noticed with the free agency spending, if it seems like if teams feel like they can get a top five or six guy at the position, they value that more than whatever we normally valued the position because the Kenneth Walker contract was like that too. He basically got premium money, but it's like, well, he is probably one of the six or seven best running backs now. So if you're going to do it, you might as well pay for somebody like that.

• 17:50Speaker 04

  Yeah. Yeah, I think so. If you weren't going to get Jeremiah Love, because people like getting the, the running back on a rookie deal, right? So if you're, if your draft range falls outside of that, you kind of do have to scramble, make a move like Kenny, Kenneth Walker.

• 18:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. McShay had a thing in his newsletter today about, could he just slide out of the top 10, even though McShay thinks he's the best guy in the draft?

• 18:12Speaker 04

  Interesting.

• 18:13Bill Simmons?

  Usually the history of the draft is the best guy never kind of makes it past seven, eight, no matter.

• 18:18Speaker 04

  Right.

• 18:19Bill Simmons?

  How much of a non-need position it is, but in this case, you know, now that, now that Kansas City's out, who's going to be the team? Could it be like Tennessee? Could it be Washington? Like, I don't know. Um, Pittsburgh. I had this at a seven and a half. Remember they're playing the first place schedule too. On top of the fact that, uh, I guess Aaron Rodgers comes back, new coach. What'd you have for this?

• 18:45Speaker 04

  You nailed it. Um, coming off 10 wins last year, you're right. Seven and a half is the over. And so now we're just, they're not even making it eight and a half. It used to be eight and a half for Tomlin every year. Like, oh, this is fun. This is a fun little game. Let's keep up. If he goes nine and eight or, or gets under there though, but Mike McCarthy has, um, cut a little less slack there, seven and a half. And yeah, absolutely. It's the schedule that's going to hurt them.

• 19:06Bill Simmons?

  And Cleveland, um, has to be among the lowest. I had four and a half for Cleveland.

• 19:12Speaker 04

  This is high. Six and a half. I gotta check this again.

• 19:16Bill Simmons?

  Six, who, so that's a Deshaun Watson bump?

• 19:20Speaker 04

  I have to check this. That's crazy.

• 19:22Bill Simmons?

  So Fanduel is saying to win your over on Cleveland, they have to go seven and 10? What are the odds of that happening?

• 19:29Speaker 04

  Six and a half. The over's plus 135. So it's juice to the under minus 160. But yeah.

• 19:35Bill Simmons?

  That should be, that should be at least one win lower. Cause when we did this last year, some of the stuff really moved. Like I remember the Pats jumped up one. A couple of them dropped one. I don't think any, your Dallas one dropped.

• 19:50Speaker 04

  Right.

• 19:50Bill Simmons?

  I don't think any dropped two, but they'll usually go up or down one.

• 19:53Speaker 04

  So that would be the one you, you jump on now. So I would go Jets under and Cleveland, Cleveland.

• 19:59Bill Simmons?

  That seems, I'd have to look at it more.

• 20:00Speaker 04

  For a while with Cleveland under.

• 20:03Bill Simmons?

  Well, don't, do they have, do they have two first round picks or one?

• 20:09Speaker 04

  Uh.

• 20:10Bill Simmons?

  They have the, they have the sixth pick in the draft. No, they have one in the, in the twenties too.

• 20:17Speaker 04

  Whose do they have? They do?

• 20:18Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. They have one in the twenties. Sort of have in minutes. So maybe they think they can boost up with the draft.

• 20:25Speaker 04

  10 picks in the 2026 draft, two first round selections.

• 20:28Bill Simmons?

  Oh, they got it from the Jacksonville trade. That's what it was. The Travis Hunter trade.

• 20:32Speaker 04

  Right, right. Oh, God.

• 20:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And then Mason Graham was good last year. Deshaun back.

• 20:40Speaker 04

  They're fine. They screwed us in that Cincinnati game to end the year.

• 20:44Bill Simmons?

  Schedule. Yeah, they hung around some home games.

• 20:47Speaker 04

  Is good.

• 20:47Bill Simmons?

  I'm not gonna say that's a lock for an under yet. All right. AFC South, they're playing the AFC North. And they're playing the NFC East, including your team. I had nobody in this division at 10 and a half. The first one I had was Houston, nine and a half.

• 21:04Speaker 04

  Exactly right.

• 21:05Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 21:06Speaker 04

  Coming off, they had 12 wins, right?

• 21:09Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 21:09Speaker 04

  Off nine and a half, they're favored to win the division, plus 165, nine and a half. Seems fair, seems fair. This division on the whole, probably overachieved last year.

• 21:20Bill Simmons?

  Feel like late May, we're probably talking ourselves into the over.

• 21:24Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 21:24Bill Simmons?

  Ah, CJ had a bad playoff game. He's fine.

• 21:28Speaker 04

  Right, right.

• 21:28Bill Simmons?

  Good tanked elbows. Just keep going. Jacksonville, I had eight and a half because first place schedule combined with no first round pick this year because they gave it away in the Hunter trade. So eight and a half seemed vicinity.

• 21:43Speaker 04

  They left them at nine and a half. I think because, I don't know, there's only a few handful of teams that are of a four and a half difference between their wins and losses, you know?

• 21:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 21:54Speaker 04

  Wins from last year and projections. So they had 13. It's tough. I don't know. We go back and forth praising Trevor Lawrence, not so much praising him, but we thought he came off his best year.

• 22:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 22:06Speaker 04

  So it'll probably be a battle between those two teams.

• 22:09Bill Simmons?

  Indianapolis, another team that doesn't have a first round pick, who just spent a lot of money on Alec Pierce and then had to trade Pittman. Daniel Jones coming back from the Achilles, third place schedule because they fell apart near the end. I had them at eight and a half.

• 22:26Speaker 04

  Exactly right. Eight and a half.

• 22:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 22:28Speaker 04

  They had eight last year, obviously tanked towards the end because the quarterback went out, but the Pierce signing is pretty, would he get four, 114, 26 years old?

• 22:38Bill Simmons?

  I really wanted him for the Pats. I just feel like the guy had nine quarterbacks in four years. Just put him with Drake. Let's see how it goes. But, and then Tennessee was one that I had circled as one that I might want to have some action on the over because they're fitting a lot of the profile. Like they're getting weapons, they have a high pick. I think Sala as the, as the coach, combined with some of the stuff they did to try to put some support around Cam Ward.

• 23:09Bill Simmons?

  I thought they were so poorly coached last year. You put anyone relatively competent, that's gotta be worth a couple of wins. Anyway, I guess six and a half.

• 23:19Speaker 04

  Really? So you might want an over at six and a half. I thought you were gonna guess five and a half. It is six and a half.

• 23:24Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 23:25Speaker 04

  But that to me is similar to the Browns. Like, I know they play a last-place schedule, but there are some of these teams that are there every year, struggling to get their fourth win in December, you know?

• 23:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they spent some money in free agency too.

• 23:37Speaker 04

  Yeah, Franklin Myers.

• 23:39Bill Simmons?

  They kept a couple of good guys from last year's team. Like, they never traded Simmons. You know, where it felt like that was the most obvious thing ever for them to finally trade him, and they just didn't. Cam Ward year two. I feel like that's like probably a mid-July podcast segment. Could the Titans be this year's Patriots?

• 23:58Speaker 04

  Well, then you gotta think someone's gonna fall off then, right? So you're leaning Jacksonville, because you always are. It's okay.

• 24:04Bill Simmons?

  Indianapolis, I think, would be another one. Where you're just putting a lot on Daniel Jones next year. And you have the entire organization is probably in blow-up land if things don't go well next year, after that Sauce Gardner trade.

• 24:23Bill Simmons?

  Jacksonville, who knows? I thought ETN was really good for them last year. Like, I was surprised that they let him go.

• 24:30Speaker 04

  He's gone. Yeah, yeah.

• 24:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Went to the Saints.

• 24:33Speaker 04

  Yep. Yeah, and look, this is remarkable for this division, that you have two teams projected for nine and a half. Those are over 500, Indy's over 500.

• 24:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's a huge win. We've really grown with the AFC South.

• 24:46Speaker 04

  It's not even like Tennessee is three. They're six and a half. They're right in there.

• 24:50Bill Simmons?

  I have planted my flag on Brian Thomas Jr. Trade Island for the Patriots.

• 24:59Speaker 04

  Oh.

• 24:59Bill Simmons?

  Did a lot of recon on him.

• 25:02Speaker 04

  Okay.

• 25:02Bill Simmons?

  His rookie year, I think he was the fourth guy who had 1,000-plus yards and 10-plus TDs, and the other ones were like Beckham, Randy Boss, and Jabar Chase. And then last year was like just, you know, awful, but...

• 25:18Bill Simmons?

  If a year ago, that guy, you, you could offer them two first round picks, they would have said no. Right?

• 25:24Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 25:24Bill Simmons?

  So could you steal him? I guess would be the question.

• 25:27Speaker 04

  Right.

• 25:28Bill Simmons?

  But.

• 25:28Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean. It's crazy because I like Jacksonville to win the division. It's one of the few things I got right last.

• 25:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you did.

• 25:35Speaker 04

  Whatever. But most of the conversation centered around Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas, Jr. And one of them, the literally didn't show up for most of the season. The other one didn't, you know? So it was what? Jacobi Myers trade that really got them going?

• 25:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, and Parker Washington too, coming out of nowhere. So I wonder if he's expendable. Waiting on that. Okay. AFC West. They play the AFC East and the NFC West. Which if the Pats are good, that could be five really good teams on your schedule, but at least four. Chargers, second place schedule for them. Lot of injuries last year.

• 26:15Bill Simmons?

  They, to me, feel like, I don't know how they win less than 10 games. So I had them at 10 and a half.

• 26:24Speaker 04

  So it, Fandel has them at nine and a half. This is one of the few that Fandel is off from other books. I don't, don't ever go to other books.

• 26:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 26:32Speaker 04

  Ever doing, you, you wouldn't do it, but I just do have to point it out.

• 26:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 26:36Speaker 04

  If you like the under, go somewhere else. If you like the over, which I think you do. Take the nine and a half now. They're an 11 win team from last year.

• 26:44Bill Simmons?

  They spent some money. They got a, a few of those like lower level, not splashy free agents, but the guys on that next tier, they have guys coming back. I still think their offensive line could be really good. They kept Khalil Mack, which I was surprised by.

• 26:59Speaker 04

  Right.

• 26:59Bill Simmons?

  You know?

• 27:01Bill Simmons?

  And then we get to talk about, is this the best team Justin Herbert's ever had? Is he ever going to come through when it matters? I'm excited for those conversations. Football's going to be back, Sal. We're going to be back. It's happening. Five and a half months, baby.

• 27:14Speaker 04

  This time last year, KC was what? I, I think the rest of the division, one of my bets was even odds to win the division instead of KC. Now it's all bunched up. It's nice.

• 27:25Bill Simmons?

  I'll tell you the one thing I'm not doing this year, and we have a lot to prove with our, with our over unders. We had, did not have great years last year. Off here, but we, we also knew it. We knew like, I, we knew last year was off. I didn't love it. There were only a couple of ones I felt strongly about. We had a lot to prove next year, but I like this Chargers team. Kansas City. I thought this was really hard. You could have told me seven and a half, eight and a half, or nine and a half. Seems like Mahomes is going to be back.

• 27:54Bill Simmons?

  They signed Kenneth Walker. They had the ninth pick in the draft.

• 27:59Bill Simmons?

  It's, there was a moment when they did that McDuffie trade when I thought, are they, is this a tank season?

• 28:07Bill Simmons?

  But maybe not. Maybe they just didn't want to pay McDuffie. They got the, I think the 29th pick in the first round back. So they'll be able to put in two rookies. And it's kind of the Chiefs way of like, let's try to patch together some D back stuff, take some chances on young guys. Kelsey's coming back. I went all the way up to nine and a half, Sal.

• 28:27Speaker 04

  Bill, you could have gone to 10 and a half.

• 28:30Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 28:30Speaker 04

  And I would have said, you're a okay. Yeah. And this is the biggest difference in terms of positive progression, I guess it would be, because they won six games last year.

• 28:39Bill Simmons?

  It's 10 and a half?

• 28:40Speaker 04

  10 and a half. They're favored to win the division at plus 165.

• 28:44Bill Simmons?

  Oh, my lord. I'm stunned by that.

• 28:47Speaker 04

  It's a lot.

• 28:48Bill Simmons?

  We don't, we haven't even seen Mahomes walk yet.

• 28:52Speaker 04

  Isn't this the Bengals thing though, too? Like, nobody, everyone's betting these two teams to make the playoffs. You gotta keep the Chiefs in double digits because when they're healthy, you know, you just figure that they're going to win those one score games again, right? If, if he is walking, like we thought.

• 29:07Bill Simmons?

  Well, we talked a few times last year about how sloppy the Chiefs were last year from a coaching standpoint. And that Andy Reid and that whole coaching staff was starting to feel a little gamey. And then stuff's come out since the season, like, they brought Eric sleeping with Biennium. Shout out to Chris Berman. They brought him back as the OC again. I don't, I think he was as shocked as anyone. But they brought him back to try to have a little more tough love in the locker room and stuff, but

• 29:41Bill Simmons?

  from the way that team was coached last year, 11 wins seems ambitious, not to mention

• 29:47Bill Simmons?

  some, some shakier character guys, just trying to be fair.

• 29:51Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 29:51Bill Simmons?

  Say a little on the shaky side, never really kind of know what's going to happen with the Chiefs. Well, I liked it at nine and a half. I don't think I like it at 10 and a half.

• 29:59Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's tough. I mean, it's just like, this is just a darling pick, so that Fandel doesn't want to get burned either way. And you're right, the AFC East, if the Patriots are good again, who knows? And, and the Bills, and then you got three NFC West teams who are very good.

• 30:14Bill Simmons?

  Denver. First place schedule.

• 30:19Bill Simmons?

  I have them at nine and a half.

• 30:22Speaker 04

  It is nine and a half. I would have thought it was higher. I would have thought 10 and a half. This is another four and a half game regression, right? They won 14 last year. This is the most disrespected team in the NFL. Like you see why the Patriots could come down four and a half games. The schedule's all different. Denver was pretty good last year for the most part. You may not love their quarterback, but for God's sakes, that defense was good. And for them to be slated for third place in that division at plus 220, yikes.

• 30:49Bill Simmons?

  Well, some of that is Vegas is not going to be a pushover this year, combined with the first place schedule, combined with they played Buffalo, the Patriots and all the NFC West teams. Just a harder road. So it makes sense to me, but you, I wouldn't have been surprised by 10 and a half. All right, Las Vegas.

• 31:07Bill Simmons?

  I, I didn't feel great about it, but I went six and a half because of the money they've spent in the draft picks and the draft capital and Mendoza being able to play right away potentially. Six and a half seemed fair.

• 31:20Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, look, I would have said six and a half if I knew Cleveland was six and a half and Tennessee was six and a half, but Fandel has them at five and a half. And there's a lot to get excited about for Vegas, obviously with Mendoza and he's going to be putting his hand on Linderbaum's took us there to take snaps. But, uh, the coach, you got it all. I just don't know. I don't know.

• 31:43Bill Simmons?

  So they have, they have the Raiders a win below Cleveland and Tennessee.

• 31:50Speaker 04

  Right.

• 31:50Bill Simmons?

  And what about? And the, uh, and the Jets were five and a half. Yeah.

• 31:55Speaker 04

  I don't know. Uh, again, I get burned every year taking the Raiders to make the playoffs or do something stupid, but.

• 32:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that was your worst one last year. But who knew that Pete Carroll was, uh, done with coaching four years ago?

• 32:10Speaker 04

  If you look at Gino's numbers, it wasn't that, the, the contract was bad, but his numbers the last three years, like if you cover up the name, he had like Baker Mayfield type numbers, you know?

• 32:20Bill Simmons?

  And then last year was just unplayable.

• 32:22Speaker 04

  Awful. Yeah.

• 32:24Bill Simmons?

  Man, that feels low to me, especially when you throw in the fourth place schedule and who knows with the Chiefs and, but I guess, I guess they're just afraid of the AFC West. All right. So the highest, highest over under we have amazingly is Baltimore at 11 and a half.

• 32:40Speaker 04

  Right. For the AFC. Yep.

• 32:44Speaker 04

  No doubt.

• 32:45Bill Simmons?

  That does not add up to me.

• 32:46Speaker 04

  Buffalo's right there.

• 32:47Bill Simmons?

  Does that add up to you that they, they, they feel like they're going, the odds on one seed in, in the AFC, according to this, is going to be the Baltimore Ravens?

• 32:58Speaker 04

  Right. With only 12 wins. Yeah.

• 33:01Bill Simmons?

  I don't see it.

• 33:02Speaker 04

  Very strange. I don't think they know what to do.

• 33:04Bill Simmons?

  So if you had to bet on a one seed, who would you bet on?

• 33:10Speaker 04

  Um.

• 33:12Bill Simmons?

  Like knowing what we know now, looking at this whole thing laid out.

• 33:17Speaker 04

  Ah, just your, your east has so many, it's really tough because you.

• 33:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you, you might have four wins with those two games.

• 33:24Speaker 04

  The east is playing 74 wins and, uh, the north is playing 63 wins, taking out first place and everything. I might, I might for fun, take the Chargers right now.

• 33:37Bill Simmons?

  So funny you said that. That was one of the ones I was like, I think that Chargers one goes up to 10 and a half.

• 33:43Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 33:43Bill Simmons?

  And, uh, especially if we see what they do over the next couple of days, plus the draft. I think that's my favorite one. Chargers nine and a half.

• 33:52Speaker 04

  Yeah, it's a, it's a moderate risk, I think. I mean, we have enough to go on to know that they're going to be decent and compete.

• 33:58Bill Simmons?

  So we like, the two that we like the most are Chargers over and Vegas over five and a half are the, are our two favorites?

• 34:07Speaker 04

  It's tough to have two in the same division, like, yeah, and on both overs, but I'm also on, on the Jets under there.

• 34:15Bill Simmons?

  Well, you, the Jets under five and a half, you still like it?

• 34:20Bill Simmons?

  I really, that, I, I know.

• 34:21Speaker 04

  Playing 20 games this year? Did they move that? I don't know.

• 34:25Bill Simmons?

  I still feel like by probably like with that little, when there's that little siesta between the NBA conference finals and the finals. We have like four days and we've already figured out who we're taking in the finals. And then we start looking at the over unders. I feel like that's when I'll make my Cleveland under bet.

• 34:43Speaker 04

  Cleveland under?

• 34:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's, that's what I'll be like, what am I doing? They're not winning seven games, but, uh, something scares me about, like, why would it be six and a half?

• 34:52Speaker 04

  With Cleveland?

• 34:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 34:55Speaker 04

  Which quarterback you excited, you excited about Watson coming back?

• 34:58Bill Simmons?

  It's like, oh, Watson's coming back. It's like, yeah, Watson's coming back. Is that good?

• 35:03Speaker 04

  Right. I don't know. If you were to say how many three touchdown games or two touchdown games will Watson have for the rest of his career? And count on zero or one fingers, I think at this point.

• 35:14Bill Simmons?

  We will take a break and then we're going to go to the NFC in your favorite division, the NFC East.

• 35:19Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah.

• 35:20Bill Simmons?

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• 36:02Bill Simmons?

  So the NFC East, I think, has the hardest combo that anyone has, NFC West and AFC South. Because all the NFC West teams, except for Arizona, are scary. I don't know what to make of the AFC South, but even like at Tennessee could be kind of a scary game, but just in general, I'm not a huge fan of that combo. Philadelphia, first place schedule again. I went 10 and a half.

• 36:30Speaker 04

  You have to.

• 36:32Bill Simmons?

  They're just 10 and a half every year. It's like the new Pittsburgh being eight and a half.

• 36:35Speaker 04

  Right. It's 10 and a half. You want to play with the other teams in the division. It's fine, but you can't make it. I mean, I'm not on their over right now as we speak in third week in March, second week in March, but the way they knuckleball their offense to 11 wins, I think it would be a miracle, almost like it was this year, but it has to be 10 and a half.

• 36:54Bill Simmons?

  If they traded A.J. Brown for a low first and like a third or two seconds or whatever, would that make you more or less likely to like that over?

• 37:04Speaker 04

  I think the more draft picks they have, the better I would like them.

• 37:07Bill Simmons?

  That's how I feel as well.

• 37:08Speaker 04

  That is the one thing they do well, right? They draft and ignore A.J. Brown. That's the other thing they do well.

• 37:15Bill Simmons?

  And I still feel like. I just feel like the Pats AJ, we're now it's 3:15 Pacific time.

• 37:22Speaker 04

  You think it could still happen, huh?

• 37:23Bill Simmons?

  I do. I, I think it's so realistic. There's too many, too many intertwining things going on. And maybe it doesn't happen till later, but I just, nobody's been able to explain to me why Philadelphia would want to run it back with 50 million for Jalen Hurts and 60 million for the two receivers. When they have this GM who's great at drafting everybody and bringing in guys year after year. And a draft that people seem to like the wide receivers a little bit more as we get in the second, third round.

• 37:54Speaker 04

  Right.

• 37:55Bill Simmons?

  I just can't imagine they're gonna be like, let's run this back. He'll be definitely happier this year. He's not gonna be happier.

• 38:01Speaker 04

  Yeah. No, I'm with you. And it's still not even one of the top five, I don't think, receiver rooms in terms of, uh, in terms of pay, like the Bills. We laughed at the Bills wide receivers forever. And they're still like, oh, oh, Shavers, we picked Shavers up.

• 38:17Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 38:17Speaker 04

  Last year, they're second. They're the second most expensive. I guess they got rid of Samuel now, so maybe they cut.

• 38:22Bill Simmons?

  Well, they added DJ Moore.

• 38:24Speaker 04

  But they added DJ Moore.

• 38:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 38:25Speaker 04

  Yeah. And it's just, uh, it's weird. And obviously Cincinnati first, Dallas third on that list.

• 38:31Bill Simmons?

  So Washington, third place schedule for them, ton of injuries last year. Some, some cap stuff that I think they're still sorting out.

• 38:41Speaker 04

  We called this. This was.

• 38:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, this is one of our better ones. We don't get a lot of Pats on the back for last year. I have seven and a half for them.

• 38:49Speaker 04

  That's exactly right. Coming off five wins, but you can't make it six and a half, right? Still a very good quarterback. They signed, uh, oh, uh, who had 10 and a half sacks with the Chargers. So that's a good, good signing there. So. I wouldn't touch it right now. I was, I was more against them last year.

• 39:06Bill Simmons?

  Let me ask you this. If they pick Jeremiah Love with the seventh pick.

• 39:12Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 39:12Bill Simmons?

  Does that go up to eight and a half?

• 39:15Speaker 04

  I don't think anything moves. No, nothing's worth the win. There's not one move that's worth the win right now. Right?

• 39:23Bill Simmons?

  I'm just trying to picture playing that team if Daniels is healthy and they add Love, who everybody loves. Just, you know, like for McShay to have him as his the top player in the draft, I think that's pretty significant.

• 39:36Speaker 04

  Did Gentry move the Raiders a half a win or a win?

• 39:40Bill Simmons?

  No, well, they couldn't block. So, and then Geno Smith just throwing the ball to the other team.

• 39:45Speaker 04

  That's true.

• 39:46Bill Simmons?

  And Pete Carroll doing the Joe Biden on the sidelines.

• 39:52Bill Simmons?

  But, but yeah, a healthy Daniels. With Love, with some of their receivers, like McLaurin will be healthy, like he had his classic, like held out, got hurt season last year.

• 40:05Speaker 04

  Right.

• 40:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's, that seems.

• 40:10Speaker 04

  Maybe it didn't even have to be Love. Like I also thought Kenneth Walker could have helped them. Like they can get like somebody, you know, there's a couple scary names out there. So, wouldn't be that bad.

• 40:19Bill Simmons?

  Your team, the Dallas Cowboys.

• 40:21Speaker 04

  Let's do it.

• 40:23Bill Simmons?

  Second place schedule.

• 40:27Bill Simmons?

  It's funny, I have them ahead of Washington. I, I have Dallas at eight and a half because I just think they want to win. And we don't know all the moves they're going to make, but when I say they want to win, it's like at the expense of any sort of, anything down the road. Like I'm just prepared for anything with them. Um, trying to figure out how do we fit Trey Hendrickson in here? How do we trade up for this guy? Like they're just so win now because their owner is 120 years old. That eight and a half feels, feels like the right number.

• 40:59Speaker 04

  That's it. It's eight and a half. You can't make it any higher. Can't make it lower because everyone's going to bet Dallas, right?

• 41:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 41:05Speaker 04

  Bachelor party in Vegas, whatever, out of spite so they could be mad at him. But yeah, listen, I can't go too crazy, but we're under the cap now. We restructured C.D. Lamb. Dak Prescott broke up with his lady. There might have been some bachelor, bachelorette party weirdness going on, but whatever. He's got to put that in the rearview mirror. We signed Javante Williams, who everyone laughed at, like, oh, that's going to be the toughest 600 yards you'll ever see, you know, 300.

• 41:31Bill Simmons?

  Two for 20, right? Something like that?

• 41:33Speaker 04

  Yeah. Okay. So we got, you know, it's not Derrick Henry, but it's good. So you're right. That Hendrickson piece would be gigantic, you know, that Gary.

• 41:42Bill Simmons?

  That feels like the most predictable Cowboys move of all time.

• 41:46Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 41:46Bill Simmons?

  The Cowboys have agreed to terms with Trey Hendrickson, and then they can take a victory lap about, we traded Parsons for two firsts and he got hurt, and then we were able to turn one of those into Williams. And now we have Hendrickson, and we're smarter than you.

• 42:01Speaker 04

  More than Jerry being 120 years old and freeing up this, he's got some drinking money now. He's under the cap. He's got to prove that this Parsons thing didn't kill him.

• 42:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So Hendrickson, you throw money at. And then the other thing that's definitely 100% happening is the George Pickens holdout. That can last.

• 42:19Speaker 04

  That'll be fun.

• 42:20Bill Simmons?

  It's got to last until July 1st, two weeks of August. So we can lead First Take like five, seven times.

• 42:28Speaker 04

  Right.

• 42:28Bill Simmons?

  Who's going to blink? Jerry's done with this guy. I'm ready for, we just know that's going to go.

• 42:34Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 42:34Bill Simmons?

  Okay. The New York Giants.

• 42:39Bill Simmons?

  New coach. High draft pick.

• 42:44Bill Simmons?

  QB coming back. Lot of talent. We all thought they may be underachieved with the roster they have.

• 42:50Speaker 04

  Neighbors coming back.

• 42:51Bill Simmons?

  Neighbors coming back. Who knows? Maybe they trade for Brian Thomas Jr. I probably went too high, but I threw down the seven and a half for this.

• 43:00Speaker 04

  Good call. I would have gone lower than that. Seven and a half is right. Coming off a four win season and this is, this is a sexy pick right now. And I think Fandel recognizes that.

• 43:09Bill Simmons?

  Well, everybody, we always worry when this happens and we, it's not like we invented this because a lot of people are on it, but that fourth place, easy schedule, new coach, new QB, whatever, two of the three are all three and it became a really good way to get great value, like with the Patriots last year, which I felt the strongest about the Patriots last year of anything we talked about. Cause I was just, I don't understand how we're not going to be better. We had the worst coached team of all time. I don't understand how the Giants won't be at least four wins better with everything they're doing and having a competent coaching staff. I guess the question is how competent is Harbaugh? He was about to get fired when Lamar got there. Lamar kind of covered up a bunch of stuff. I always thought he was a good coach,

• 43:54Bill Simmons?

  but I didn't like the last couple of years.

• 43:56Speaker 04

  Yeah. It's like, is he gone? Well, let's bring Max Crosby in now because we can do something.

• 44:00Bill Simmons?

  We don't want to get, we don't want to get him credit for this.

• 44:03Speaker 04

  You sure he's gone?

• 44:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 44:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, man. Look, he's, he's coming into a night. Boy, the Giants are like so weird, right? With their quarterback. Like we knew very early on, Jackson Darts, the guy, right?

• 44:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 44:12Speaker 04

  And he's a good, like, uh, he's a personality also. And then you don't want to sit him the last month of the season because he got dinged up a little bit, but you don't want to sit him totally, but he changes his game completely. He's not the same quarterback. So it was a very strange Giants win. Scatabo gets hurt, neighbors gets hurt, right? Their defense maybe didn't perform like we thought. They signed Isaiah Likely. That could be good, right? Like, you know?

• 44:36Bill Simmons?

  I like that one.

• 44:37Speaker 04

  I like that better than like Darren Waller type.

• 44:38Bill Simmons?

  He also needed to leave the Ravens. It felt like he was just involved in too many controversial plots for them in games.

• 44:44Speaker 04

  Right, right, right. Yeah.

• 44:44Bill Simmons?

  He just needed a change of scenery.

• 44:46Speaker 04

  For sure. So yeah, so Harbaugh's got his guy there. So yeah, but seven and a half to, to, to double your wins is, is tough though, right? So you got four.

• 44:56Bill Simmons?

  I haven't.

• 44:56Speaker 04

  You love it. You're going over.

• 44:58Bill Simmons?

  I haven't.

• 44:58Speaker 04

  Lock it in. Go ahead.

• 44:59Bill Simmons?

  No, I'm not going to lock it in, but I do like it. I do think they fit. Well, two things that would have to happen is your team would have to be not as good as people think.

• 45:09Speaker 04

  That could happen.

• 45:09Bill Simmons?

  And, and, uh, Washington, same thing.

• 45:12Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 45:13Bill Simmons?

  But there's a chance, we talked about this a lot last year with the NFC West and, and we were. Pretty right that we thought there could be three playoff teams that came out of that.

• 45:26Bill Simmons?

  And that division turned out to be, you know, that division in the NFC North basically carried the conference. This division is definitely better.

• 45:34Speaker 04

  Washington did two years ago. Yeah.

• 45:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. NFC North, easy. NFC South and the AFC East are their two divisions.

• 45:46Speaker 04

  The easiest out of all.

• 45:48Bill Simmons?

  So you're basically getting all of those weird NFC South teams plus the Jets and Miami.

• 45:53Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 45:53Bill Simmons?

  That's just six winners.

• 45:57Bill Simmons?

  And if you're Minnesota, you get the fourth place schedule too. So they're another candidate. Like what if they figure, what if Kyler Murray goes there? What if somebody else goes there? What if they figure out quarterback combined with some of the talent there? Anyway, Green Bay, I just, they're a blind 10 and a half for me with all the talent. Second place schedule for them too. So I went 10 and a half.

• 46:19Speaker 04

  Yeah. 10 and a half is right. Coming off a nine win year. There's, well, I won't tell you what, what their odds are for the division. Cause you'll figure out maybe Detroit from that, but uh, I like them this year. I feel like they're Chicago from last year. They had so much, so much had to go wrong for them to lose the two games they did to the Bears. And they had, you know, they were unlucky the rest of the way.

• 46:39Bill Simmons?

  Are they just the team that we like every year and every year they let us down and we're like, I like them. I still like them. And it's just for seven years they're going to let us down?

• 46:48Speaker 04

  The Bengals with the lighter colors, maybe. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe that's it.

• 46:51Bill Simmons?

  So they lost Dobbs to the Patriots today. They win Jenkins, which I was surprised by because I always thought he was one of the, one of the highly respected interior alignment in the league. We'll see what they do in the draft. I'm sure they'll, they'll end up with two more receivers. I don't know. Did they miss the golden pick? We never really heard his name last year.

• 47:12Speaker 04

  Right. Well, he's banged up for a while and just to me, they were the unlucky team of the year. So.

• 47:18Bill Simmons?

  I agree with that. Yeah. Well, a team that was not the unlucky team of the year was the Chicago Bears.

• 47:24Speaker 04

  Right.

• 47:24Bill Simmons?

  First place schedule this year, lost their center who abruptly retired. So they got to figure that piece out. Um, they traded DJ Moore and uh, just a lot of talent. And I thought they got a great year from Caleb. I went nine and a half.

• 47:40Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 47:41Bill Simmons?

  Is that it?

• 47:41Speaker 04

  That's it. That's exactly it.

• 47:43Bill Simmons?

  I like the over for that.

• 47:46Speaker 04

  You like the over?

• 47:47Bill Simmons?

  I do. I think the Bears, I, I don't know. I'm, I'm pro Bears. I don't, I wouldn't put it down as a lock, but I, I'd be hard to believe that they're just not a playoff team anymore.

• 47:59Speaker 04

  So you must not like the Lions? Or do you think?

• 48:01Bill Simmons?

  I do not like Lions. I do not like Lions. I know there's some good signs with them and third place schedule and maybe getting healthier. Um, I had nine and a half for the Lions.

• 48:11Speaker 04

  So they're 10 and a half and they're favored to win the division, only slightly over Green Bay.

• 48:16Bill Simmons?

  I don't get that at all.

• 48:17Speaker 04

  And then the Bears.

• 48:18Bill Simmons?

  So what's the case for that?

• 48:20Speaker 04

  I think it's exactly what you said. Third place schedule, how long we're going to keep Dan Campbell down. Uh, maybe they see Montgomery leaving as a, it goes what to Houston. So I think they see that as a positive.

• 48:31Bill Simmons?

  Well, they signed for check out today to be the Montgomery.

• 48:34Speaker 04

  Right. Yeah.

• 48:35Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if that's gonna work.

• 48:37Speaker 04

  I don't know. You know, they still had a lot, a lot of injuries. So when you say they're, they're, they're unlucky team also, but I'm, I'm gonna give them one more year. Cause I think.

• 48:48Bill Simmons?

  But when you say, but when you say the Lions have a lot of injuries, isn't that every year with the Lions?

• 48:52Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 48:53Bill Simmons?

  I just, I kind of have to factor that in at this point. Um, and the offensive line, I think is a lot different. That was one of the cases. We forgot to mention this with Cleveland, like their offensive line, which I think was at one point really good and then was pretty good, but I think every guy from that offensive line is gone heading into the season.

• 49:13Speaker 04

  Right.

• 49:13Bill Simmons?

  Like all five guys are gone. I think with the Lions, the offensive line they had two years ago is not going to be there in the same way.

• 49:19Speaker 04

  Mm hmm.

• 49:20Bill Simmons?

  So.

• 49:20Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 49:21Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. That to me, I could see that team, Raheem loves the alt unders and the alt overs where we just go like four or five wins. That could be an alt under team for me.

• 49:32Speaker 04

  Yeah. I mean, that's all scheduling, right? So if that's a third place schedule, they'll play everyone in the, they'll play what? Uh, was Dallas third?

• 49:40Bill Simmons?

  I mean, all of those.

• 49:41Speaker 04

  Uh, Washington was, yeah, yeah.

• 49:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. San Francisco, they'll get, yeah, those kinds of teams.

• 49:47Speaker 04

  Maybe it's not so easy. Oh.

• 49:50Bill Simmons?

  So you, it sounds like you like the Lions. You think they have another year left?

• 49:53Speaker 04

  Yeah, you always. You gotta talk me off the Lions. You gotta, you're gonna have to talk me. I, I don't love the Bears, but what's going to be interesting is the Vikings. So what is it? Is it, is it Rogers or Murray at this point?

• 50:08Bill Simmons?

  Mac Jones?

• 50:10Speaker 04

  Rogers, Murray, Mac Jones, Cousins.

• 50:13Bill Simmons?

  Could it be? Let me see what pick they have. So could it, or could it be like a draft pick to they go back to the well?

• 50:21Speaker 04

  Really?

• 50:22Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so they're in like the low teens.

• 50:25Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 50:27Bill Simmons?

  Does it? It sounds like the McCarthy thing is headed toward a conclusion.

• 50:31Speaker 04

  Definitely, but I don't know if they want to admit failure that much to just draft somebody.

• 50:36Bill Simmons?

  I think you do if you feel like you're gonna lose your job if you don't admit failure, right? If you're O'Connell?

• 50:41Speaker 04

  I guess so. Yeah, the GM was.

• 50:44Bill Simmons?

  Although they, yeah, they got rid of the GM.

• 50:46Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 50:47Bill Simmons?

  O'Connell must have been like, I told you not to get rid of Sam Darnold. They're like, but wait, you were telling us you were on the phone every day for an hour with J.J. McCarthy.

• 50:57Speaker 04

  Right.

• 50:58Bill Simmons?

  I have the number seven and a half.

• 51:01Speaker 04

  Yeah, so it's eight and a half. So this entire division is over 500, or I guess eight and a half would be 500. And then Chicago's nine and a half and Green Bay, Detroit, 10 and a half.

• 51:11Bill Simmons?

  All right, so let's really capture this moment. Because we mentioned that they have the easiest other two divisions that they're playing. This is what happened last year with the NFC West. And all the overs ended up hitting and were like two, three wins lower than what the overs were. So here we have Green Bay 10 and a half, Chicago nine and a half, Detroit 10 and a half, and Minnesota eight and a half. I mean, that, they're basically saying that's a 39-win division.

• 51:40Bill Simmons?

  It's a lot. When you, there's one division every year that gets into the 40s. Last year was the NFC West, I think.

• 51:46Speaker 04

  Right.

• 51:46Bill Simmons?

  But that's not a good.

• 51:48Speaker 04

  Well, let's think about, so, I mean, are they just saying two, two and O across the board against the Dolphins and Jets? Is that two free wins for everybody? Somebody will get tripped up there.

• 52:00Bill Simmons?

  I mean, we don't, I'd love to know who the Minnesota quarterback is.

• 52:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, I know, that would help.

• 52:09Speaker 04

  I guess do Rogers. Who are we rooting for? Rogers? That's a fun division if it's Rogers. Better than going back to Pittsburgh, I think.

• 52:16Bill Simmons?

  I like the idea Rogers going back there and being in the NFC North one last time and playing the Packers.

• 52:23Speaker 04

  Doing the Favre thing. Exactly Favre thing.

• 52:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, literally the Favre thing. NFC South, they play the two North divisions. So one of my predictions before we do anything, I did not have a single team over seven and a half in this division. So I'm just gonna flag that for you now. Atlanta Falcons, third place schedule.

• 52:45Bill Simmons?

  They, uh, they did the impossible. They went, they went from cap space and the eighth pick to Kirk Cousins, overpaying him, coming off an Achilles. Drafting Michael Pennix super early to everybody's complete shock and dismay. And now they're buying out Cousins. Pennix got hurt yet again, which I think is his fourth one. And the recipe for all of this was signing Tua, who's just done as a productive quarterback. There's no scenario where he's ever gonna be good again. It's impossible. I don't see it. That's who you bring in? What are you doing?

• 53:23Speaker 04

  I appreciated, uh, NFL Twitter really, really stepped up yesterday. I mean, there were like great memes, like when Tua signed, they show like Falcons in free agency. They show guys picking up trash, like throwing it in the, like, just rapid fire, picking up trash. And, oh, Tua put his house up for sale in, uh, in Miami and it's a blue tent going for $72,000. Like, I love it. Like, two, you know, maybe mentally challenged lefties throwing a football to each other on the beach.

• 53:52Bill Simmons?

  That was pretty good.

• 53:52Speaker 04

  It's like, okay, uh, there's a quarterback room for Atlanta. I love it. I don't know what Stefanski thinks of this. He's like, man, send me back to Cleveland. At least we knew there was no plan there. But what the hell? Also, you're in the NFC South.

• 54:06Bill Simmons?

  Why not just bring back Cousins?

• 54:08Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 54:09Bill Simmons?

  Is I guess the money, it's easier. I saw they, if they get rid of them before the date, it's 22 million dead cap this year and 12 million next year and they just figure that's easier. But I, any scenario where two is not my quarterback is the scenario I'm picking. Cause that guy's not a competent starting quarterback anymore.

• 54:27Speaker 04

  I, speaking of incompetent, like we laugh at Tampa, like the Carolina, I mean, they won, they ended up winning the division somehow. We laugh at that owner. Well, what is Arthur Blank doing? What is going on? Like Jerry Jones must be like, hey, what about, come on, let's go with the senile jokes here.

• 54:43Bill Simmons?

  Seriously. And they lost Algier, who I, I liked Algier and Bijon together. They, they didn't even lose him for that much.

• 54:53Bill Simmons?

  Anyway, I said seven and a half for this.

• 54:55Speaker 04

  Seven and a half is right. Coming off eight wins, seven and a half.

• 54:58Bill Simmons?

  We forgot to mention they, they traded their first round pick this, in this year's draft to the Rams.

• 55:04Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah.

• 55:04Bill Simmons?

  Which is now going to be the 13th pick for James Pierce, who is in one of the worst, uh, non-football news stories that we've had in a couple of years. Just, you know, if you believe the alleged reports, seems like a, an absolute maniac. And that's who they lost their first round pick to. So this was not, I'm going to say not a strong two years.

• 55:25Speaker 04

  I thought it was the best coaching job out there just because of the division and how little is it expected of the winner, right?

• 55:32Bill Simmons?

  Couldn't agree more.

• 55:33Speaker 04

  You're going to be close with your prediction here. Um, but, uh, yeah, but I don't know.

• 55:38Bill Simmons?

  Seven and a half for them. I had seven and a half for Tampa, who just lost Mike Evans.

• 55:43Speaker 04

  So they're eight and a half.

• 55:45Bill Simmons?

  Don't agree with that at all.

• 55:47Speaker 04

  I don't know why. I mean, they, they, it looked like they could have 11 wins last year at some point. And then they just decided not to play football anymore, but.

• 55:56Bill Simmons?

  Who was the running back they got? They got, was it Gainwell?

• 56:02Speaker 04

  Oh, did they? They did get Gainwell, right?

• 56:03Bill Simmons?

  I like that. I thought Gainwell was a good. I was hoping the Pats would get him. I thought he was like the best player of the Steelers offense last year. Every time their offense would fall apart, they would just throw him like a screen and he'd go for 14 yards.

• 56:17Speaker 04

  He was good. He was a good fast guy. He scored a little bit. He was fine. I mean, that could, that could complement Bucky Irving pretty well.

• 56:25Bill Simmons?

  Carolina, I also had seven and a half.

• 56:28Speaker 04

  So the division winning Carolina Panthers are at six and a half.

• 56:32Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 56:33Speaker 04

  I would have had him at seven and a half too. I mean, I would have blindly just gone seven and a half.

• 56:37Bill Simmons?

  I think that might be my, they do have the first place schedule, I guess.

• 56:40Speaker 04

  Yeah. They signed Jalen Phillips and Devon Lloyd, but.

• 56:47Bill Simmons?

  Did Jalen Phillips one was a good one? So they, do they have a draft pick this year? Yeah, they do.

• 56:54Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 56:55Bill Simmons?

  They, so they're in the low teens with their draft pick. I like, I, I thought, I thought McMillan, that was a home run. That pick turned out. Coker, who missed the first half of their Holy Cross zone, Jalen Coker. He's back.

• 57:13Bill Simmons?

  I don't, that seems really low. I don't get that at all.

• 57:14Speaker 04

  Can we talk about Kenny Pickett, who they signed to?

• 57:18Bill Simmons?

  Why teams keep giving him jobs?

• 57:20Speaker 04

  Five teams since 2022. He's drafted in 2022. He's drafted four years ago. He's been on five teams.

• 57:26Bill Simmons?

  What about?

• 57:27Speaker 04

  That is, that's remarkable. Like you have to not suck and not be good. Like he is right where you have to be. I don't, I don't think we'll see this again, five teams in four years.

• 57:36Bill Simmons?

  So you think you have to be terrible, but also tantalizing?

• 57:41Speaker 04

  Yeah, think about it. Like in any other, I, I don't know in any other industry this would work. Cause you have a resume that's not good, you know?

• 57:50Bill Simmons?

  I thought the weirdest one of all the signings, and it wasn't a major signing, but when the Chiefs got Minshew back for one year, eight million, Minshew? Back for one year, eight million?

• 58:00Speaker 04

  Did they get him back? I thought, uh.

• 58:02Bill Simmons?

  I thought that was the sign, or the Cardinals signed him. Who signed him?

• 58:05Speaker 04

  I think the Cardinals took Minshew.

• 58:06Bill Simmons?

  Did I screw that up? Leave that in because I want people to see that, that even their heroes can make mistakes.

• 58:16Speaker 04

  Yeah, one year for the Cardinals.

• 58:18Bill Simmons?

  For the Cardinals.

• 58:19Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 58:20Bill Simmons?

  So is he gonna start? Did they watch tape of him the last couple of years? I mean, I was like the biggest Minshew guy and even I like gave up on it.

• 58:28Speaker 04

  Right, right, right.

• 58:29Bill Simmons?

  Remember he started that Chiefs game last year? It was, or he was just awful.

• 58:33Speaker 04

  You gave up on figuring out what team he's on too, yeah.

• 58:38Bill Simmons?

  Listen, there's a lot of moving parts in 32-team league.

• 58:43Bill Simmons?

  Anyway, that's my favorite one, that Carolina over. I don't care first place schedule, NFC North, AFC North, like whatever. How is that team not gonna win seven games? They have a lot of talent. They were right there with the Rams. They went, they threw some punches in that playoff game.

• 58:58Speaker 04

  That's true. They'll play the Eagles, they'll play the, um, uh, who's NFC North? Chicago, I guess. And then they'll play the Rams, right?

• 59:10Bill Simmons?

  I like that team. I thought they were pretty well coached too.

• 59:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, cuz Atlanta, Atlanta was gonna be my sleeper for that division and Tua was just like, okay.

• 59:22Speaker 04

  We don't have to. It's annoying enough that we're even talking about this division, like, and let's not even.

• 59:27Bill Simmons?

  Let's move on.

• 59:28Speaker 04

  Let's not, until November, I'll make a pick on it.

• 59:30Bill Simmons?

  Here's one, here's another fourth, fourth place, the first candidate, the New Orleans Saints, six and a half.

• 59:35Speaker 04

  Sure.

• 59:36Bill Simmons?

  Is my guess for them, is that right?

• 59:38Speaker 04

  That's exactly right.

• 59:39Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 59:39Speaker 04

  Plus 350 to win the division. I thought there was a little bit, they signed Fant at the end we mentioned. Not bad, quarterback's a gamer if you want him to cover.

• 59:48Bill Simmons?

  I, I'm a fan of Shuck.

• 59:52Bill Simmons?

  As we, as we discussed over and over again last year, I like the ETN signing. That means to me, they're probably gonna trade Kamara. We'll see if they bring Olave back. They have, uh, they have their first round pick.

• 1:00:05Bill Simmons?

  I mean, honestly, you put these four teams together and it's like, who can I get the best odds on to win the division? You probably just bet that team.

• 1:00:13Speaker 04

  Yeah, I think they're the best plus 350 or better out there for a division.

• 1:00:17Bill Simmons?

  What are they now for the division?

• 1:00:19Speaker 04

  They're plus 350. I mean, your Bears are plus 380 too, but so.

• 1:00:24Bill Simmons?

  I thought Vegas at 20 to one caught my attention for a split second.

• 1:00:27Speaker 04

  Always, always.

• 1:00:28Bill Simmons?

  20 to one, it's like, Jesus. I mean, the Patriots were 20 to one last year.

• 1:00:33Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:00:34Bill Simmons?

  And New Orleans, I guess the downside for New Orleans would be worst run team in the league. Where the most medical staff situations, really almost like a negligent ownership. And probably won't be spending a lot of money. So that would be reasons not to take them.

• 1:00:50Speaker 04

  Well, you got teams that can't get out of their own way in Tampa Bay, in Atlanta with their front office, you know, whether moves, free agency moves and Carolina with a fourth place schedule. So, you know, could get lucky.

• 1:01:04Bill Simmons?

  NFC West, they're playing the NFC East and the AFC West.

• 1:01:09Bill Simmons?

  Some tough ones in there. Seattle, first place schedule for them.

• 1:01:15Bill Simmons?

  I wanted to go 11 and a half and I just couldn't get there. I did 10 and a half for them.

• 1:01:21Speaker 04

  You're right and you're wrong. It's 11 and a half on Fandel. You want to go somewhere else? You could find a 10 and a half.

• 1:01:26Bill Simmons?

  They jacked it up. Okay.

• 1:01:27Speaker 04

  This is one of the, the four or five that they're different with, with some of the main books. But yeah, coming off 14 wins. So, and that's kind of what you need to win this division seems.

• 1:01:37Bill Simmons?

  They got some guys plucked, right? They kept Shaheed over Kenneth Walker, which I thought was really interesting. Would you, if you could only have one and they were around the same money, Shaheed was like 2 million more, 3 million more, would you have kept Walker? Charbonne is coming off a ACL.

• 1:01:56Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:01:57Bill Simmons?

  So they're gonna have to address running back somewhere. It wasn't in free agency yet. But I was surprised they didn't bring back Walker. It almost made me wonder like, what do they know?

• 1:02:08Speaker 04

  There might be a little trade in there coming up there, right? Day four of, of coming up. But I like Shaheed for, they get him for like 50 million for three years.

• 1:02:16Bill Simmons?

  He was on my Patriots list because they were just kind of figuring out how to use them too. And to try to make those like weird explosive like flip passes and stupid shit with them. Devastating returner.

• 1:02:31Bill Simmons?

  Eleven and a half. So they think the Seahawks go ten or twelve and five with a first place schedule. Okay.

• 1:02:37Speaker 04

  They jacked these up like they it was like a kind of a reverse of what they did with the NFC South with these lines.

• 1:02:43Bill Simmons?

  Well, Rams. So that means I got the Rams, right? Because I had them eleven and a half.

• 1:02:47Speaker 04

  That's right. Yeah.

• 1:02:49Bill Simmons?

  Second place schedule for them.

• 1:02:51Speaker 04

  So that's I don't think you're gonna get eleven and a half for the Niners, right? So that's how many eleven and a half? So is that three total? It's just the two in the West.

• 1:02:58Bill Simmons?

  Three in the Ravens. Yeah.

• 1:03:00Speaker 04

  That's it. I feel like typically we have more.

• 1:03:03Bill Simmons?

  And the Rams did the McDuffie trade. They basically spent we we didn't love their D backs last year and thought that was one of the reasons that they they didn't make it to the Super Bowl and they didn't like the D backs either because they spent real capital trying to replace everybody. Adams coming back.

• 1:03:21Speaker 04

  Get your fucking special teams in order. Just do that.

• 1:03:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they should have spent trade money on a special teams coach.

• 1:03:27Speaker 04

  That's it.

• 1:03:28Bill Simmons?

  Adams coming back for one more year. We'll see. Stafford, I'm sure we'll hear forty nine different stories about his body and he might want to retire and he'll be back. San Francisco, I had a hard one, hard time with this. It was either nine and a half or ten and a half. I landed at ten and a half, third place schedule for them.

• 1:03:50Speaker 04

  It's nine and a half, coming off twelve wins. It was ten and a half last year when we freaked out. Nine and a half this year. But again, Mike Evans, three for sixty.

• 1:04:01Bill Simmons?

  It's a tough one. Lot of guys coming back on injury. They basically they I mean, they didn't dump Iuk. He had dumped himself. I guess they're gonna let Jennings go. So you're basically replacing Iuk and Jennings with Mike Evans, who as anyone who had him in fantasy knows, he's just gonna miss four to five games a year somehow at this stage of his career, right? You're not getting four straight months out of Mike Evans. Now you have McCaffrey, who's another one, like if you four straight months from him is a miracle. Brock Purdy was hurt last year. Pierceall got shot last year.

• 1:04:37Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:04:38Bill Simmons?

  I can see the nine and a half. It makes sense.

• 1:04:41Speaker 04

  It does. And Evans, you know, first of all, that's not a guy who needs to be speedy. You know, I guess you lose your speed in your 30s, whatever, right? Makes sense, but he gets to 50 50 balls a lot, right? So speed might not matter as much, but those hamstrings is definitely a deal at 32. Also, you have bad injury luck.

• 1:05:00Bill Simmons?

  I was gonna say, you're bringing his ham, his hamstrings next to the electromagnetic factory. I didn't even think of that.

• 1:05:07Speaker 04

  No kidding.

• 1:05:07Bill Simmons?

  Oh, no.

• 1:05:08Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:05:09Bill Simmons?

  You should have gotten the most adorable guys ever on that free agency. What are you getting Mike Evans for?

• 1:05:15Speaker 04

  We, we get shit on every day. Let's move under a pigeon coop. Let's do, let's test ten fate. Yeah, that's something.

• 1:05:21Bill Simmons?

  That's like if we signed our friend Daniel and moved him right next to a sports bar.

• 1:05:29Speaker 04

  Or any bar.

• 1:05:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. All bars.

• 1:05:35Bill Simmons?

  Uh, last one is Arizona. I slapped the five and a half on this.

• 1:05:41Speaker 04

  Yeah. Well, you want, now that you know, yeah, they have Minshew, what do you?

• 1:05:45Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna keep it there. Five and a half still. Fourth place schedule for them too, obviously.

• 1:05:49Speaker 04

  They have it at four and a half. It's so weird that they won't move these teams off. Well, I mean, I guess just because they, they're looking at one and five against Rams, Seattle, San Francisco, unless something drastically weird happens there.

• 1:06:02Bill Simmons?

  So you think Fanduel was in the over unders war room? And they wanted to go five and a half and somebody said, I think there's going to be a Jacoby Brissette, Minshew QB battle. And they're like, all right, drop it one, four and a half. That's what it is.

• 1:06:15Speaker 04

  Minshew gets to bring his clipboard in that battle. Just don't want to win. Yeah. 30 to one to win that division. Wow.

• 1:06:22Bill Simmons?

  So we don't have a favorite NFC one, or it sounds like yours, you're, you don't, Detroit 10 and a half isn't your favorite one?

• 1:06:29Speaker 04

  No, no, no way. I, you know, I, Green Bay, I think would be mine. I know nobody likes.

• 1:06:34Bill Simmons?

  Green Bay 10 and a half. It's like I've been burned by them before.

• 1:06:39Speaker 04

  I probably. 750 to win. I like that more the, the, the, uh, conference, taking a shot at them at like eight to one or 750.

• 1:06:47Bill Simmons?

  I'm probably leaning toward Carolina or New Orleans, six and a half, one of those being over.

• 1:06:52Speaker 04

  Look at you with the South, with these frickin' South.

• 1:06:54Bill Simmons?

  Seven and 10?

• 1:06:55Speaker 04

  Stop it, stop it.

• 1:06:57Bill Simmons?

  Chuck can't get seven wins? The guy was incredible last year. We're riding him. I would stay away from NFC West because I think they did a good job with those.

• 1:07:05Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:07:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, good job, good job by Fando there with the NFC West.

• 1:07:09Speaker 04

  They, Mike, they really, really nailed it.

• 1:07:12Bill Simmons?

  They nailed it, they nailed it to the point five, Mike. NFC North. The Chicago one still, I need to know more about what Chicago did, but that nine and a half still feels like there could be some action. And then I guess the Giants, I guess by default, at seven and a half, might be my favorite one.

• 1:07:31Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:07:32Bill Simmons?

  I have that as a semi-lock.

• 1:07:33Speaker 04

  It's a good one. I would get it in. That could go up because I just think more and more people are going to like, like the Giants. I mean, they.

• 1:07:41Bill Simmons?

  That's another way to look at this. What, what's going to go up? What is the get in now price? Because the Patriots last year, when we did this, was clearly like, that's going up.

• 1:07:50Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:07:51Bill Simmons?

  Chargers nine and a half to me is going to go up. I think that ends at 10 and a half, right?

• 1:07:56Speaker 04

  Yeah, I think so.

• 1:07:58Bill Simmons?

  Nine and a half, 10 and a half, that's going to jump. Giants probably doesn't go to eight and a half, so you might be fine waiting that one out. But that Carolina or New Orleans at six and a half just seems low to me still. So maybe those are the get in earlys.

• 1:08:10Speaker 04

  It's a low, that, that, I mean, that's just, have we seen that low number? NFC South is 29 wins. 29. We bet that, didn't we bet like under 32 or something?

• 1:08:20Bill Simmons?

  We did.

• 1:08:21Speaker 04

  29? That's nutty.

• 1:08:23Bill Simmons?

  Remember?

• 1:08:24Speaker 04

  We're going to go under again.

• 1:08:25Bill Simmons?

  Remember when we bet the Clippers would make the playoffs and the Warriors weren't going to make the playoffs? That's looking good.

• 1:08:31Speaker 04

  Is that going to happen?

• 1:08:32Bill Simmons?

  Steve Kerr's complaining about the schedule now. I'm feeling great. Yeah. Clippers looked good last night, nice win last night by them.

• 1:08:38Speaker 04

  I do like that.

• 1:08:40Bill Simmons?

  Unfortunately, we lost most of our bets. We lost most of our NBA futures because we had Milwaukee tied to half of them.

• 1:08:48Speaker 04

  I said the other day to the fellas. I think the East is gonna be crazy. I think you could pick four conference finalists and you'll get them wrong. I'll give you four. I'll give you a shot. Go ahead.

• 1:08:59Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, right.

• 1:09:01Speaker 04

  Who's gonna be in the conference finals?

• 1:09:02Bill Simmons?

  The Celtics were the big disruptor, right?

• 1:09:05Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:09:05Bill Simmons?

  The funny thing is, there's four teams and Charlotte is probably a year away. And then I would say it's four teams and then Miami and maybe Charlotte as the all time wildcards for the.

• 1:09:16Speaker 04

  You watch.

• 1:09:17Bill Simmons?

  To crash the party.

• 1:09:18Speaker 04

  Orlando gets in there against the Celtics or something dumb. I mean, we saw with Miami as an eight seed, right? Weren't they an eight seed with Butler?

• 1:09:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, Orlando just all of a sudden figures it out for four weeks.

• 1:09:29Speaker 04

  Crazy.

• 1:09:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I'm prepared for anything. Okay, so your, your single favorite over under was?

• 1:09:34Speaker 04

  Uh, I, I'm sticking with it. I'm going Cleveland under. Sorry, that's too, too many, too many at this point.

• 1:09:42Bill Simmons?

  My single favorite is Chargers, nine and a half over, but we'll see, we'll see more signings to come, more draft picks to be made.

• 1:09:49Speaker 04

  Yeah, we touched on it, but you think there's any single move that would move these, aside from just natural momentum of gambling, any move in free agency or draft that would move a number one game?

• 1:10:04Bill Simmons?

  You mean a move along the lines of Shams reporting 18 minutes ago that Tyrese Maxey will be reevaluated in three weeks?

• 1:10:11Speaker 04

  Yes, like something like that. Like, does that move the Eagles line even though he's a Sixer?

• 1:10:16Bill Simmons?

  They now no longer have Maxey, Joel Embiid and Paul George.

• 1:10:21Speaker 04

  They're battling for the eight seed. Fifty to make the play in. That's nuts. That's a six seed right now.

• 1:10:27Bill Simmons?

  So maybe Milwaukee's not dead. We might not be dead with our Milwaukee one yet.

• 1:10:30Speaker 04

  I know. Yeah, you're right.

• 1:10:31Bill Simmons?

  Um, I think the one that could move the needle to answer your question is if Washington picks Love seven.

• 1:10:38Speaker 04

  Love, okay.

• 1:10:40Bill Simmons?

  I could see that's, and then do a couple other smart moves and at some point we look at the finished product and we're like, oh. It's kind of potentially explosive team here. They got no offensive coordinator, so that would be mine. Is there any other one that you would go with?

• 1:10:55Speaker 04

  But no, no, because it would have to be, it would have to be Rogers, Cousins. I don't think any of those guys, Murray. I don't think any of them do it.

• 1:11:02Bill Simmons?

  What about Harry Styles, that linebacker? Is it the singer, Harry Styles?

• 1:11:07Speaker 04

  Is it Harry? I don't know if it's Harry.

• 1:11:09Bill Simmons?

  What's that style?

• 1:11:10Speaker 04

  Fun. He's fine. Yeah.

• 1:11:11Bill Simmons?

  People that, nobody trading up for him is going to move the lines.

• 1:11:15Speaker 04

  Can I make a recommendation with these combine numbers? The fastest, have you looked through the, the history of the fastest wide receivers from John Ross to?

• 1:11:24Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:11:24Speaker 04

  Xavier Worthy's the best of them. It's like, it's just, it's, it's disgusting. Like you, you don't want to be the fastest guy. You're like, run with an anvil on your pants or something.

• 1:11:34Bill Simmons?

  Right. You want to be, you want to have a four or five and be good at like the cone drill.

• 1:11:38Speaker 04

  Yeah, right. Exactly. And I don't think coach, I think teams are on to it too. Like, oh yeah, you're the fastest dude. All right. Not taking you to the fifth round.

• 1:11:45Bill Simmons?

  You know who wasn't on to it was Bill Belichick for years with Patriots. He would always get seduced.

• 1:11:50Speaker 04

  He liked that.

• 1:11:51Bill Simmons?

  Over and over again. All right, Cuz. All right. I'm glad you're hanging in with Noah.

• 1:11:55Speaker 04

  Let's do it. Look, we got March Madness coming. We're going to do something at the Kimmel Club. Fandel's sponsoring this.

• 1:12:01Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:12:01Speaker 04

  March 26th, when this is a Sweet 16 week.

• 1:12:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:12:04Speaker 04

  Uh, the bundle will be there. Tate Frazier will be there. Simmons is plus 850 to make an appearance. Get in on that now.

• 1:12:11Bill Simmons?

  50s. Yeah. Might even be, might even be 10 to one.

• 1:12:14Speaker 04

  Oh, come on. What? All of a sudden you hate Vegas? What's the matter with you?

• 1:12:18Bill Simmons?

  Hate Vegas. I'm about to, right after you, we're talking to Sean Fantasy about the Oscars. And the Michael B. Jordan numbers are, he's now a minus.

• 1:12:28Speaker 04

  I bet him.

• 1:12:28Bill Simmons?

  For best, you did it already? Okay.

• 1:12:30Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:12:31Bill Simmons?

  I'm wondering if it's just the Leo backlash vote, but we're going to talk about that with, with Sean Fantasy's second. Cuz, we can find you on the Ringer Gambling Show, Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Um, and then I'm sure you'll pop on when we get close to the draft on this pod. Good to see you. Good job, buddy.

• 1:12:46Speaker 04

  You won't even know it. I'll pop on. Good job, buddy, Billy.

• 1:12:49Bill Simmons?

  Hey, every Wednesday I've decided to look through the NBA slate and make a parlay. And there's no rules for these parlays. I can do anything I want. I hit the first parlay last week. Hopefully you didn't miss out. If you did, you have a brand new chance this week to get in on the action. I'll be tweeting my parlay out on Wednesdays, but just so you know, I am looking at Minnesota and the Clippers because I went to the first Minnesota Clipper game in LA two weeks ago. The Clippers didn't have a point guard. Garland was a back end. They still hung around. Thinking about parlaying that with Charlotte at Sacramento because Sacramento is tanking for the year. And Charlotte is on a two-game skid and needs a win. So there you go. That's, that's at least two of the legs I'm looking at.

• 1:13:35Bill Simmons?

  The bet will be live in the FanDuel Sportsbook app on Wednesday. Don't forget to use a profit boost token to increase your potential winnings before you place it. We call it the PBT. FanDuel, play your game. It's football season and Uber Eats is delivering deals every single day. This week, buy a four-piece signature chicken from Popeyes and get another one free on Uber Eats. When your watch party gets hungry, order in and keep everyone's attention where it matters on the game. Order a four-piece signature chicken from Popeyes. Get another one free. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score great deals on Uber Eats all season long because it's not football without food. It really isn't. Popeyes offer valid through November 1st.

• 1:14:17Bill Simmons?

  Add eligible menu item to order product. Check out. Taxes, fees, and terms apply. Product availability varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details.

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• 1:14:52Speaker 01

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• 1:15:03Speaker 02

  I needed more from my antidepressant. So my doctor added Caplyta lumateperone, proven to provide greater relief from depression symptoms than an antidepressant alone, building on my progress without starting over. Caplyta is for adults with major depressive disorder when used with an antidepressant and is available by prescription only. Individual results may vary. In clinical trials, weight gain was not common.

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• 1:15:50Speaker 02

  Ask your doctor about Caplyta. Learn more at caplyta.com or call 888-252-4824.

• 1:15:56Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Carhartt. We spend a lot of time talking about football, the players, the coaches, the big plays, but there's a whole other team we rarely think about, the people who make the game possible, the workers building stadiums, paving parking lots, growing the grass, welding the goalposts, even making the footballs. They're committed to their craft and they're doing the work long before kickoff. Carhartt is proud to outfit those crews. So next time you're watching a game, take a second to appreciate the people behind it. Learn more at carhartt.com/jointhetraes.

• 1:16:28Bill Simmons?

  All right, Sean Fantasies here. We're taping this on a Monday afternoon, actually, the day before the pod, because we just did rewatchables. You're a part of CR Month. We did To Live and Die in L.A., which we recorded for next week. Been very fun. But Oscars is this week and we have...

• 1:16:44Bill Simmons?

  A live big picture, which you're gonna do right after the Oscars on Netflix, but also on Spotify, but we're doing that. The show will end and you will be on there. Will you be surprised by something major that happened during the telecast on that live show?

• 1:17:01Speaker 05

  So I, I think so. I, the last two weeks has been very, very fun. And the previous three months of Oscar prognostication and awards tracking, I think has been kind of boring. And then the race got very exciting, very quickly, which leads me to believe that we're gonna have a very fun and interesting Sunday. However, I haven't made my predictions yet. I'm about to make them on the pod later this week. And I'm starting to lean towards a lot of chalk.

• 1:17:28Bill Simmons?

  Hmm.

• 1:17:29Speaker 05

  And I'm look, I've looked at the betting favorites. I've looked at every precursor. I've looked at the history and the precedents here. And I'm starting to bore myself a little bit with what I think is gonna happen.

• 1:17:40Bill Simmons?

  But that, that's never how it plays out though. There's always one shocker.

• 1:17:43Speaker 05

  But you know, I gotta say, Amanda Dobbins has been pointing this out on, on the big picture. Like the last few years, very early in the season, everybody just decides what the movie is. And that movie tends to dominate for long stretches of time. Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer, Enora, those movies were betting favorites for long stretches of time. So one battle after another has been the betting favorite for a long time. And it has, it has steamrolled the competition at all the precursors. So, you know, we'll see.

• 1:18:14Bill Simmons?

  Well, if you had to bet on anything that would seem like a safe bet, it would be one battle and PTA winning.

• 1:18:20Speaker 05

  I think PTA for director is locked.

• 1:18:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:18:23Speaker 05

  Um, picture is not locked because centers, you know, what you're hearing a lot about is the vibes in the room at the SAG Awards. When Michael Jordan won and when the cast won best ensemble, people in the room were like levitating. They were so happy because that cast is so loved. That movie is so loved. It's the most nominated movie of all time, 16 nominations. But.

• 1:18:46Speaker 05

  If One Battle loses, it will be probably the most unprecedented upset in Oscar's history, just based on what it has done so far. Now, that doesn't ultimately matter because the voting window is short and people might just be really thinking about Sinners and loving Sinners right now and voting for it. But a movie has never had the collection of, and these aren't just like critics awards. These are awards from the guilds, which is a lot of people that vote for the Academy Awards, the producers, the directors, SAG, the editing group, the cinematography group. Like, One Battle's won everything there. And also, Sinners has won Best Film at zero award shows and at zero precursors. So you're talking about, it would be a pretty historic upset if Sinners win.

• 1:19:29Bill Simmons?

  We'll take a quick detour.

• 1:19:30Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:19:30Bill Simmons?

  Because you've triggered something that I've been meaning to say to you.

• 1:19:33Speaker 05

  Great.

• 1:19:35Bill Simmons?

  You know, I always talk about how we need a sports czar.

• 1:19:37Speaker 05

  Mm hmm.

• 1:19:38Bill Simmons?

  We also need a culture czar.

• 1:19:40Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:19:41Bill Simmons?

  Which I'd like to nominate myself for. I don't know if I'm qualified enough.

• 1:19:44Speaker 05

  I think you're probably exactly who we should pick.

• 1:19:47Bill Simmons?

  Thank you.

• 1:19:49Bill Simmons?

  Too many award shows now.

• 1:19:50Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:19:51Bill Simmons?

  We just have too many and I don't know where we went wrong. And it's, it just feels like people are getting dressed up week after week after week. I feel like Seth Rogen has given 40 speeches.

• 1:20:01Speaker 05

  Uh huh.

• 1:20:01Bill Simmons?

  Where he's just thanked whoever and he can't believe he's up there. And it's like, you actually can believe he's up, you're up there because you've been giving a speech every Saturday night since like September.

• 1:20:11Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:20:12Bill Simmons?

  I've just had it. Like, can we just go back to Oscars, Emmys, Grammys? I'll give you the Golden Globes as like the fun wild card. And then the rest of the stuff, let's not televise them anymore. Let's just stick with four.

• 1:20:27Speaker 05

  So I think that the number of televised award shows has not increased dramatically, but I do think that the Oscar machine has gotten noisier. So for example, there's a lot more attention paid in the kind of like Oscar media, movie media to things like the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild Awards. Those shows are not on television. They're not televised at all. I went to the Directors Guild Awards this year. It was really, really fun. And you can see why people like doing this, why this is such a cottage industry into itself. Because it's a nice night out. You get dressed up, you see a lot of friends. Yeah, it's a good time, but um, to me, the real devil's work is March 15th Academy Awards. Way too fucking late. There's just, this should be, I firmly believe this should be the week between

• 1:21:08Speaker 05

  the championship games and the Super Bowl. Like, it's the end of January.

• 1:21:13Bill Simmons?

  January?

• 1:21:14Speaker 05

  Yes, and it's like, force the Globes to move up. I realized that that's the Grammys. The Grammy should pick another date. The movies are getting really far from people's minds. We're 11 months since Sinners was released in theaters. That's a long time. Mid-March is way, way too late for the way the culture operates.

• 1:21:31Bill Simmons?

  So how did we end up in March? Didn't, weren't we in February for a while?

• 1:21:35Speaker 05

  It has, it has fluctuated. Last year was in early March. Sometimes it's later in March. Sometimes it's later in February. Historically, it's all across that kind of two-month corridor. My theory is, is that this is good for business. It's good for the business of the awards industrial complex. Yes.

• 1:21:52Bill Simmons?

  Video on demand.

• 1:21:53Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 1:21:53Bill Simmons?

  HBO Max, whoever.

• 1:21:55Speaker 05

  It's good for media, you know, it's good for us. I mean, for the pods, like, people want to hear us talk about the Oscars. It's, that's consistently like, it's a horse race. So there's something exciting about it, but I don't know. Just covering it, like, it's just the same conversations over and over again. It's the same people at the same parties. Just a lot of redundancy.

• 1:22:11Bill Simmons?

  I was laughing, you were, you were doing IGs of each movie, counting down. And I was like, I'm pretty sure I know where Sean stands on F1. And you've been talking about these movies for a year.

• 1:22:21Speaker 05

  I know. You know, I'm a little bit sick of it, obviously. It's gotten exciting because there's more unpredictability, especially in the acting races, which has been cool. But this is, this is just too long. It's too long.

• 1:22:30Bill Simmons?

  I like your February idea. So we, Super Bowl, which it seems like they're going to drag out the Super Bowl now, too.

• 1:22:36Speaker 05

  If the Super Bowl is like February 8th, make this Oscars February 1st. That would be great.

• 1:22:40Bill Simmons?

  Right. Either do it the week between championship, Super Bowl, or the week after.

• 1:22:44Speaker 05

  I would accept that.

• 1:22:45Bill Simmons?

  Has been like, the NBA All-Star Game has kind of tried to grab that and some other stuff. In general, everybody's just getting way better at the calendar.

• 1:22:54Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 1:22:54Bill Simmons?

  And I've talked about this on my pod before, about UFC, WWE, all of these different plays, like, oh, third week in August, there's nothing we'll target there. You're seeing it with World Baseball Classic right now, and some of these other things that we just didn't have 20 years ago. But the Oscars should be, signature OG should own the weekend.

• 1:23:14Speaker 05

  Yeah, I think.

• 1:23:15Bill Simmons?

  I'm with you that March feels late. I saw Sinners. I saw it with Van. It was like over a year ago.

• 1:23:20Speaker 05

  It came out in April.

• 1:23:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:23:21Speaker 05

  It was an April 2025 movie, so it just feels a long time ago. And that, and you know, that's not, that's not the only reason. There are plenty of movies in Oscar history that have like come out earlier in the year, but just pushing it deeper and deeper kind of sucks. But there is like a whole complex around the BAFTAs. There's a whole complex now around the actor awards because they're on Netflix. Like, all of this space has been made because the Oscars keep deciding to be in March. And they are the most powerful award show. It is still the second most watched thing in most Americans' homes after NFL football, the Oscars. Even though it has shrunk a lot in the last 10 years, it's still big.

• 1:23:55Bill Simmons?

  The Oscars is awesome.

• 1:23:56Speaker 05

  Yeah, it's great.

• 1:23:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Well, we have the biggest one, and we could talk about the movies and, you know, who we think should win, which you've already talked about many times. So I know your answers, but the most interesting one is the best actor. Where Shalhoub, if he had just been kidnapped by gypsies and brought to New Zealand for four months, would just be running away with the award. And it's, it's this old Hollywood story of first, you can do too much. Second, you could say a couple of things that people can go on to. And at some point, you hit this, this mode that I always call the, ah, fuck this guy mode. And it's, it's hard to get to, and you need to have some success,

• 1:24:39Bill Simmons?

  and you need to do just a couple of things that make people basically stop rooting for you. And I don't want to say start rooting against you, but they stop rooting for you.

• 1:24:50Speaker 05

  Well.

• 1:24:51Bill Simmons?

  And I think he's hit that point now where people are like, all right, enough.

• 1:24:56Speaker 05

  Let's break it down. He wins the actor award last year, and he gives a speech about pursuing greatness at first performance in a complete.

• 1:25:04Bill Simmons?

  Which I kind of enjoyed.

• 1:25:05Speaker 05

  I loved it.

• 1:25:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:06Speaker 05

  It was a very swaggering athlete style speech.

• 1:25:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:10Speaker 05

  He called out who he thought the greats were in acting, and he wanted to be just like them.

• 1:25:13Bill Simmons?

  Which is, by the way, his, his kind of spiritual backbone is sports and music. And he's generationally, this is the people that he loves talk like this.

• 1:25:25Speaker 05

  Yeah, he's a New York kid. Talk your shit. Like, that's the kind of guy that he is. I, I love it. I've always liked it about him as like kind of a persona. That also was basically the soft kickoff of the Marty Supreme marketing campaign. Because everything he did in the run up to the release of Marty Supreme was like. A stunt to show how swaggy he was.

• 1:25:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:44Speaker 05

  And I think that some people found that a little eye rolling, but it obviously worked because the movie did really well, despite being a period piece about a ping pong player. And so if you take all that stuff away, a lot of that stuff that I think was annoying some of these voters potentially, the movie doesn't get to 100 million. And if the movie doesn't get to 100 million, then he doesn't have that same primacy as like the guy of his generation as a movie star, because this was the last step, open an original movie by yourself. So he pulls that off, but then as soon as he pulls-

• 1:26:14Bill Simmons?

  Is that the first time he did that, right?

• 1:26:15Speaker 05

  It is, yeah.

• 1:26:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:26:16Speaker 05

  Because I mean, he did Wonka and Dune and other movies that are all based on IP. This was an original movie. And nobody does that anymore. It's really hard to do. So he got that, but then the price to pay for that was you're overexposed. People think you are this guy, instead of it being a part of the marketing strategy. And you add on top of that, that the Academy historically doesn't really like young guys anyway.

• 1:26:38Bill Simmons?

  I would also throw in he's involved in the extended Kardashian-

• 1:26:43Speaker 05

  Also a factor.

• 1:26:43Bill Simmons?

  -universe, which some people have a visceral reaction to.

• 1:26:47Speaker 05

  They do. So he's got some marks against him. You know, if you're talking about a subjective, objective opinion, he's obviously an insanely talented actor, like, and he's very comfortable carrying movies on his shoulders. I love Marty Supreme. Marty Supreme is not the most likable character in the world. There are a lot of people who tend to vote by which characters they like, and not just whether or not they think a performance is good. So that's a factor. I don't know what the hell's going on in this race, though, because even though Michael B. Jordan is the favorite, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around him winning because he also has won nothing all the way up until the Actor Awards. And it almost felt like he won in part because there's so much affection for the movie and he's an industry veteran now, right? He's pushing 40. And also, it's a sort of a like, a not Chalamet vote.

• 1:27:32Speaker 05

  There's a little bit of that going on.

• 1:27:33Bill Simmons?

  So I thought Leo was going to be the not Chalamet vote. And like even Fando has that prediction app. There's Gold Derby, there's some different ones. MBJ is basically, as we're taping this on a Monday afternoon, he's a slight favorite.

• 1:27:46Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:27:47Bill Simmons?

  And Chalamet is in the plus 140, 150 range, which is crazy because he was like a prohibitive favorite for a while.

• 1:27:54Speaker 05

  He was.

• 1:27:55Bill Simmons?

  And Leo is, is, you know, he's 13 to 1, 14 to 1 range.

• 1:28:00Speaker 05

  There, it's weird because there's also not a lot to support either of these predictions. So this just shows you how kind of at C I am on this category in particular. But I haven't ruled out Leo or Wagner Mora for my picks. I, I just, I think.

• 1:28:13Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah. Make the Mora case.

• 1:28:14Speaker 05

  The Mora case is that we've got a much more international academy.

• 1:28:16Bill Simmons?

  20 to 1.

• 1:28:18Speaker 05

  He's very, very well liked in the industry and he is also very personally well liked by pretty much anybody who comes across him. I interviewed him seven years ago, one of the most genuinely charismatic and thoughtful guys that's ever been on the pod. He's also been laser precise in campaigning with the Academy. As opposed to just like, oh, you, did you win the Golden Globe or not win the Golden Globe? Or did you win the Critics' Choice Award or not win the Critics' Choice Award? He hasn't given as many speeches as you'd want to, but one, you've got to consider that Brazil is, has a stronghold in the Academy voting. Two, he's a, a overseas actor who has done a lot of stuff in America and in, in the English language. He was in Narcos, you know, like he's very well known. Three, there's a lot of admiration for the secret agent.

• 1:29:03Speaker 05

  There's not a ton of data that supports this take, but I've kind of been hanging on it for a while that if he's standing up there, I'm not going to be stunned. I think it's possible.

• 1:29:11Bill Simmons?

  How about that? You have four of the five actors, you wouldn't be stunned. When was the last time we had a category like that?

• 1:29:17Speaker 05

  A major acting category? I can't remember. The other thing too about SAG, I shared this with you over the weekend. SAG for Best Actor and Best Actress has only been predictive in three out of the last six for the actor awards. That's kind of a shaky category. SAG is a weird group of people. It's like, it's a huge body and like less than 5% of the people who are in the body book for the Academy Awards. So it doesn't really tell you like a ton about who's going to win all the time.

• 1:29:40Bill Simmons?

  It wasn't nothing, though.

• 1:29:41Speaker 05

  It wasn't, well, the, he gave a great speech and Viall Davis had that awesome moment of giving it to him. So it was very memorable. So if like members were watching, they clocked that and they saw that. They, they probably felt it the way that we did. It was such a cool win for the actor awards.

• 1:29:54Bill Simmons?

  Well, also, how many, how many best actor, black actors have won?

• 1:30:00Speaker 05

  Not very many.

• 1:30:00Bill Simmons?

  It's less than five.

• 1:30:01Speaker 05

  It's three, I think. Yeah. I think it's Denzel, Sidney Poitier and Forest Whitaker.

• 1:30:07Bill Simmons?

  He checks the boxes from the, this kid's been in Hollywood for a while. He's paid his dues. He's done all kinds of things. He got a taste of it with Fruitvale. I think he's really well liked.

• 1:30:18Speaker 05

  He is. He's the opposite of Chalamet. We don't really know anything about Michael B. Jordan. He's not a very-

• 1:30:24Bill Simmons?

  He's done a good job of-

• 1:30:25Speaker 05

  His persona is very modest. So people like that. They like when they don't know anything about the person. Daniel Day Lewis has won this award three times.

• 1:30:33Bill Simmons?

  Right. I mean, Frances McDormand won three times. I don't think she campaigned any of the three times, right?

• 1:30:39Speaker 05

  That, so that to me, what you just said there is the case for Leo. Which is that Leo has been more present this year. He's very, very admired across the industry, obviously, in part because he always picks good projects and people really respect that about him. He's in the movie that is the best picture prohibitive favorite. There's a world where-

• 1:30:59Bill Simmons?

  Also, people love him in this movie.

• 1:31:01Speaker 05

  He's great in the movie.

• 1:31:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:31:03Speaker 05

  And he's not, like, he wasn't at the actor awards because he's just making a movie with Scorsese. Because people are like, he's about love of the game. That's his thing. That's what he's into. He loves making movies. He wants to make movies with great filmmakers. His next movie after this? Heat 2 with Michael Mann in his 80s. You know what I mean?

• 1:31:17Bill Simmons?

  We think. I still believe it when they're filming it.

• 1:31:21Speaker 05

  So, I don't, there, if-

• 1:31:23Bill Simmons?

  There's also some fun Leo versus Timmy stuff here where you're talking about the last guy who was able to get to, every time I release a movie, it has, it's almost like what I used to talk about with the NBA where how many guys in the league guarantee you 46 wins, no matter who's on the team? And Leo was the only guy who could guarantee you a release forever. And now, Chalamet may be the next guy?

• 1:31:47Speaker 05

  Can you believe Brunson is one of those guys now? They're, the Knicks are about to have their third consecutive 50-win season. That hasn't happened in 40 years.

• 1:31:55Bill Simmons?

  Expensive team, though.

• 1:31:56Speaker 05

  Well, what, come on. Don't yuck my yum.

• 1:31:58Bill Simmons?

  Like, even Giannis doesn't guarantee you 46 wins anymore. He's not even gonna be 500.

• 1:32:02Speaker 05

  It's true. I'm giving Brunson all the credit.

• 1:32:04Bill Simmons?

  Like, right now, it's probably Jokic, Jokic and, uh-

• 1:32:08Speaker 05

  Ant?

• 1:32:09Bill Simmons?

  I don't even, no, Ant might not even get to 46 wins this year. Jokic might be the only guy who guarantees you 46 wins, no matter who's on his team.

• 1:32:16Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:32:19Speaker 05

  Leo is one of those guys, yes.

• 1:32:22Bill Simmons?

  I'm trying to think of a scenario, what kind of movie he'd have to make. So Body of Lies was probably the last one he did that didn't do that well. And since then, he's been-

• 1:32:31Speaker 05

  J. Edgar, J. Edgar.

• 1:32:33Bill Simmons?

  Oh, J. Edgar. That was a bad decision by him.

• 1:32:35Speaker 05

  But it was Clint Eastwood. I mean, that was-

• 1:32:37Bill Simmons?

  I know, but that wasn't a good-

• 1:32:39Speaker 05

  Not a great film.

• 1:32:40Bill Simmons?

  Wasn't a good choice by him.

• 1:32:41Speaker 05

  No, but that's, I mean, it's so rare. There's like three or four movies you can point to over the last thirty years where you're like, eh, I don't know about this one.

• 1:32:46Bill Simmons?

  It's funny, because I saw one battle and there were people in the theater really laughing throughout the movie. There were some people that thought it was just absolutely hysterical. I didn't laugh once and I didn't get that part of it.

• 1:32:57Speaker 05

  I'm so blown away by that.

• 1:32:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I was like, alright.

• 1:32:59Speaker 05

  You've only seen it one time, right?

• 1:33:01Bill Simmons?

  I've only seen it one time.

• 1:33:02Speaker 05

  Him in Sensei's apartment on the phone, trying to get the password, is the funniest fucking scene of the year. When he's yelling at comrade Josh-

• 1:33:10Bill Simmons?

  It's funny, it didn't get with me for some reason.

• 1:33:11Speaker 05

  I'm, because, you know, we don't always share tastes, but stuff like that, we always, I don't, I feel like we're always on the same page with that sort of thing.

• 1:33:17Bill Simmons?

  I do have to see it a second time. I've seen Sinners like four times. Sinners was my favorite movie of the year. I don't know why. I-

• 1:33:25Speaker 05

  I mean, true you.

• 1:33:26Bill Simmons?

  Movies take you different ways.

• 1:33:27Speaker 05

  You talked about on the rewatchables.

• 1:33:28Bill Simmons?

  No, I know, I really, you know, I just, I, I just thought it was just really cool and I, it took me for a ride, I knew where it was going. I probably saw one battle a little bit late, so the hype was already there, which I do think can affect you when you see it, but- It was also like fucking exhilarating and awesome. And if it wins, there's this whole PTA piece too, that I think is gonna be pretty great.

• 1:33:49Speaker 05

  Yeah, he's 0 for 11 in his career at the Oscars, so he's more than overdue. He's also widely revered in the Academy as like one of the greatest living filmmakers. You've talked to most filmmakers under forty. His name comes up in the top five of their favorite directors, among most people.

• 1:34:03Bill Simmons?

  He's a 10 to 1 favorite.

• 1:34:06Bill Simmons?

  Kootler, I think, is the only one who could take it.

• 1:34:08Speaker 05

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:34:10Bill Simmons?

  Kugler's eight to one, apparently, and Fandel. I'm sure this stuff will change. But with Kugler, it's one of those things that if he won, it would be shocking. But I wouldn't be like, oh, my God, I can't, I can't believe that just happened. It would be shocking.

• 1:34:27Bill Simmons?

  But I do think like people really like that dude. And sometimes the Oscars comes down to it's a popularity contest.

• 1:34:32Speaker 05

  True. I think, to me, the more likely outcome is One Battle wins best, no, is that PTA wins director and Sinners wins best picture than the inverse. I think it's very unlikely that Kugler wins best director and One Battle wins best picture.

• 1:34:46Bill Simmons?

  What's gonna actually happen is it's gonna win one battle, one both.

• 1:34:49Speaker 05

  Prob- probably. The director thing feels pretty tight to me because he, PTA won at DGA.

• 1:34:55Bill Simmons?

  He's due.

• 1:34:55Speaker 05

  He's been dominant all the way through. Yeah.

• 1:34:57Bill Simmons?

  People want him to get one. Kugler's time is coming. He's younger.

• 1:35:00Speaker 05

  Yes. Also, One Battle is dedicated to Adam Sumner, who is his longtime AD and was a producer on One Battle and is a really a very widely liked person. And he passed away last year. He was the AD on many Steven Spielberg movies. Like, this is an industry award. Like, you gotta remember that. Like, these people, a lot of these people have worked together. They know each other. This isn't like voting for the NBA MVP where it's like a lot of people in different cities just watching TV and deciding or watching games and deciding, you know, even though there's a fraternity of journalists, it's not the same as when, with like people that work in the film industry. So I think it's One Battle, but I don't, I don't feel confident.

• 1:35:39Bill Simmons?

  Do people really think, like, if MBJ won, people would be surprised? But do you think that's considered a great performance or a very good performance?

• 1:35:48Speaker 05

  I think it's considered very good. I think there's a case for it as very great because it's two performances, obviously, because he's playing Smoke and Stack. So he's doing a lot there. I did point out when we did our Secret Agent revisit last week, though, that Wagner Moore is technically playing three people in a way in The Secret Agent. He's playing the same guy, but one guy before witness protection and another guy after witness protection. And then he's also playing his son in the future. And he also gives a very layered, deep, complicated performance that shows you like which guy is which in certain ways. MBJ, I think he's just not as showy an actor. And I think he's also at his absolute best in Coogler movies. And he's given some uneven performances in other movies. So I think some people are a little resistant to him.

• 1:36:32Bill Simmons?

  I think that helps his case for this, though, that it's a little bit of, I didn't know you had that in you.

• 1:36:38Speaker 05

  Mm hmm.

• 1:36:38Bill Simmons?

  Which is how I felt. I thought I had figured out, like, whatever his ceiling was as an actor. And he went above it in this movie.

• 1:36:44Speaker 05

  It's also just-

• 1:36:44Bill Simmons?

  I thought he was fucking awesome.

• 1:36:46Speaker 05

  Him and Coogler together is just a great thing in movies. It's just cool when you get a pair like that, where they come along and they're doing that Scorsese, De Niro thing, where you know they're gonna make at least three or four more movies together. You know, he's gonna evolve as an actor, where he's gonna start to be more like Delroy Lindo than Michael B. Jordan at a certain point. He's gonna take on, like, old guy supporting parts. So just the idea of that union, I think, makes people who love movies. The idea that there's two guys who are under 40 who are doing that right now in the biggest movies of the year is really exciting.

• 1:37:15Bill Simmons?

  Best actress, Jessie Buckley. It's a rap.

• 1:37:18Speaker 05

  It's a rap.

• 1:37:19Bill Simmons?

  It's not even gonna bounce off her that she was in a bad movie.

• 1:37:22Speaker 05

  She was just in one of the biggest bombs in the last 10 years, and no one cares. She's gonna, she's gonna win in a walk. There was a, there's a story going around that she doesn't like cats. Did you hear about this?

• 1:37:32Bill Simmons?

  I'd like her even more.

• 1:37:34Speaker 05

  She forced her husband to rehome his cats when she moved in with him. And, uh, I don't care.

• 1:37:41Bill Simmons?

  There's a-

• 1:37:41Speaker 05

  I'd throw my life away for her. She's the greatest.

• 1:37:44Bill Simmons?

  She's the best.

• 1:37:44Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:37:45Bill Simmons?

  There's video of her singing and bars and all kinds of crazy stuff.

• 1:37:49Speaker 05

  Did you go back to her, like, talent show competition days on YouTube?

• 1:37:52Bill Simmons?

  Great voice.

• 1:37:53Speaker 05

  Just an amazing singer.

• 1:37:55Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if I've given you this take. I thought it was the best male or female performance this decade.

• 1:38:02Speaker 05

  You did.

• 1:38:02Bill Simmons?

  Hamlet.

• 1:38:03Speaker 05

  I, I did, did share Cate Blanchett in Tar with you as a counterpoint.

• 1:38:11Bill Simmons?

  I thought Hamlet was incredible.

• 1:38:13Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:38:14Bill Simmons?

  The first hour or whatever.

• 1:38:15Speaker 05

  Is it your number two movie of the year?

• 1:38:18Bill Simmons?

  I thought the last, so there's two different conversations, right? It's like the movies start to finish, but then almost like extended moments or long scenes or stretches. Where I think this movie year had a lot of great, memorable, iconic stretches. You know, like even in Sinners, when, when the vampires finally get in, into the bar, like just that whole run where you're like, oh my God. It's like what we call in rewatchable stuff, okay, motherfucker. Like classic, the one battle when we, they had a bunch of them, like when we were with Del Toro, but then really the car ride will be, that's gonna be the ultimate.

• 1:38:59Bill Simmons?

  I thought what she did in that big final climactic scene was as good as I've seen. I just, it was really, it was way more moving than I thought. I just thought she was just incredible and at a whole other level. With, with like some of the great actors ever.

• 1:39:17Speaker 05

  Yeah, I, I agree. I really held the first hour of that movie against it though.

• 1:39:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but that's, it's almost like the, it redeemed itself and then some.

• 1:39:27Speaker 05

  Yeah, I just, I can't pretend it didn't happen. Like that whole approach to that world, the performances, what Paul Meskell's doing in the movie, the like, the, the patience that it makes you have to get to them having a family, which is something that we know walking into the movie that we're waiting for. I just felt like it was really, really, really languid in a way that I didn't really vibe with at all. But I don't, I, I, I've been saying it since I saw it over the summer, that the final 40 minutes is torturous shit. And part of it is like they're performing Hamlet. It is Hamlet. Like Hamlet is captivating and watching someone be captivated by Hamlet and having this personal catharsis with it is really cool, but.

• 1:40:08Bill Simmons?

  I was also upset that he didn't get nominated, but it was a deep year. But I thought Paul Meskell was, was, I thought, especially in the last half hour, I thought he was really good.

• 1:40:16Speaker 05

  I think the script does him a little bit of a disservice in the movie. He does the to be or not to be thing while like standing on the ledge. I was like, this is a little on the nose for me.

• 1:40:25Speaker 05

  Just putting that out there.

• 1:40:26Bill Simmons?

  Did you interview Chloe?

• 1:40:28Speaker 05

  I didn't, and I never have.

• 1:40:29Bill Simmons?

  Oh, interesting.

• 1:40:30Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:40:31Bill Simmons?

  Well, she's gonna win. I told you I couldn't stand the Rose Byrne movie, least popular movie in The Simmons House this year.

• 1:40:37Speaker 05

  I enjoyed it, but I specifically understood what it was trying to accomplish, which is, I think, like, alienate some people and show you how alienating it is to feel like that character, you know?

• 1:40:46Bill Simmons?

  I didn't like it.

• 1:40:47Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:40:49Bill Simmons?

  Best Supporting. So Sean Penn is like basically a two and a half to one favorite at this point.

• 1:40:54Speaker 05

  Do you think this is gonna happen?

• 1:40:56Bill Simmons?

  Skarsgård is plus 350, and I'm surprised Del Toro didn't get more momentum, but I think because he's already won, whatever. Delroy Lindo at nine to one.

• 1:41:07Speaker 05

  Del Toro's only in 12 minutes of one battle after another.

• 1:41:12Bill Simmons?

  I have thought Skarsgård was gonna win for a while for a variety of reasons. He fits the Oscars profile in a lot of ways of the old guy. Let's get, let's get him one. Had a stroke four years ago. He's really good in the movie. He's got his son and like, very like fun Hollywood family situation.

• 1:41:31Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:41:32Bill Simmons?

  And I think people would be fired. Sean Penn's won a couple of times.

• 1:41:37Speaker 05

  He's got some zany takes out there, Sean Penn.

• 1:41:39Bill Simmons?

  He's got some takes.

• 1:41:39Speaker 05

  Bit of a character.

• 1:41:40Bill Simmons?

  This could be a little fuck that guy in there. Who, who should win?

• 1:41:51Speaker 05

  It's a complicated question because Skarsgård to me is a lead. And Sensient Value is an amazing film, and it is a film that makes you think it's about Renata Reinzwe, but I think it's just as much about him. And I think he is asked to do the most. And he's making a film in Scandinavia where he, you know, his career launched and he's made so many great and important international films. I always liked him as an actor. Good Will Hunting, you know, he's elite, Fields Medal winner. I.

• 1:42:19Speaker 05

  What Benicio is doing in one bow though.

• 1:42:21Bill Simmons?

  Oh, take your fields middle Sean. You can have it.

• 1:42:26Speaker 05

  It's convenient that I'm named Sean.

• 1:42:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:42:29Speaker 05

  But Benicio is is pretty sick. You know, it was really good. I really did not like Benicio del Toro's Frankenstein, but Jacob Elordi is incredible in that movie. And what he does as as the creature is really unique. And he brings something really new to this like 100 year old character.

• 1:42:46Bill Simmons?

  It's interesting because nobody really liked that movie that much.

• 1:42:48Speaker 05

  It's got its defenders for sure. I've not been one of them, but.

• 1:42:51Bill Simmons?

  Because I was thinking when we do and we watch those 20 years from now, when I'm in a nursing home and you guys are coming in to film with me. We'll be, I'll be like, Elordi, how did he get in there? Why didn't?

• 1:43:02Speaker 05

  You're gonna be in a nursing home in 20 years?

• 1:43:04Bill Simmons?

  I don't know, maybe.

• 1:43:05Speaker 05

  Hopefully not.

• 1:43:06Bill Simmons?

  50 years.

• 1:43:06Speaker 05

  I hope you're okay in 20 years.

• 1:43:08Bill Simmons?

  60 years. Elordi will be the one that that we're kind of like, wow, how'd that get in there? Nobody's talked about that Frankenstein movie for 20 years.

• 1:43:15Speaker 05

  Yeah. I don't, but I, but I don't think it's a bad nomination at all.

• 1:43:19Bill Simmons?

  I think the Euphoria cast just giving us him and Zendaya and and and Sydney Sweeney. Like three of the biggest under 35 stars we have. It's, it's.

• 1:43:32Speaker 05

  I mean, don't, don't forget.

• 1:43:33Bill Simmons?

  It's like impossible.

• 1:43:33Speaker 05

  Coleman Domingo, who's way more famous now, an Oscar nominee. Austin Abrams, who was just in Weapons and is about to be the star of the new Resident Evil movie. I just saw Faces of Death the other day. The star of it is Barbie Ferrera, also from that.

• 1:43:45Bill Simmons?

  Oh, she's back.

• 1:43:46Speaker 05

  And Maude Apatow, who obviously was known before that because of her father, but and just directed her first movie that's coming out later this year. So when's the last time a show threw off legitimate movie star potential like that? That's like seven people deep.

• 1:44:00Bill Simmons?

  That's happened with the cast of Tell Me Lies. I'll do respect to them.

• 1:44:04Speaker 05

  No, I don't think so.

• 1:44:05Bill Simmons?

  So my, I would bet on Skarsgård for this, and I think he's going to win anyway. There's Sean Penn. Sean Penn was mesmerizing in the theater. It's a little cartoony.

• 1:44:15Speaker 05

  You, you gotta remember that in this particular category, the Academy loves villains. This is Anton Sugar from No Country For Old Men. This is Heath Ledger's Joker. You know, this is like. This is where the Academy likes to award its bad men. So that's the case for Sean.

• 1:44:33Bill Simmons?

  I think this is 50 50. And then best supporting actress feels like we're gonna be surprised.

• 1:44:39Speaker 05

  I don't know what the fuck's gonna happen.

• 1:44:40Bill Simmons?

  Amy Madigan feels like that this happens with the Oscars every year with the older actor. But it's like, it's gonna be her time or his time. And then they just get kicked in the teeth on Oscars.

• 1:44:49Speaker 05

  Yeah, Glenn Close has been getting her head blown off for decades now. I, I think I'm gonna predict Amy Madigan. I don't know. I, I remember vividly, I was at the Telluride Film Festival in the fall and I was sitting next to a person who was an award strategist.

• 1:45:04Bill Simmons?

  Hmm. What a job.

• 1:45:06Speaker 05

  That is a real job. And I said to them, you know, I think there's a really good campaign to be made for Amy Madigan. Cause she's really liked in the industry. She's had a 40 year career. She's a real professional and she's, this movie is a big hit.

• 1:45:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:45:18Speaker 05

  A lot of people saw it and she's doing a very dramatic thing, a lot of makeup. You know, a lot of like a transformation. The Academy loves a transformation. And I remember him going, hmm, interesting. And I'm not saying I inspired that. This was gonna happen no matter what. But it's come a long way from her being like, wow, this is a weird horror movie that Amy Madigan shows up in for 10 minutes to potentially Academy Award winning part. I, I, I think I'm gonna pick her. She also gave a great speech at the Actor Awards and people remember that stuff.

• 1:45:48Bill Simmons?

  I mean, she was, Field of Dreams?

• 1:45:51Speaker 05

  Field of Dreams.

• 1:45:52Bill Simmons?

  35 years ago.

• 1:45:53Speaker 05

  At the PTA meeting, yeah, talking about book banning.

• 1:45:56Bill Simmons?

  It's great in that movie. I was like, they've stayed with Ed Harris? They're still together?

• 1:45:59Speaker 05

  Yeah, they famously did not stand for Elliot Kazan when he won his honorary Oscar, a very memorable Oscars moment.

• 1:46:05Bill Simmons?

  Alright, so if you had to predict a holy shit, I can't believe that happened category, which one is it?

• 1:46:12Speaker 05

  Wagner Moore winning best actor would be holy shit.

• 1:46:15Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:46:15Speaker 05

  That would be crazy. The odds are like 3%.

• 1:46:19Bill Simmons?

  We have to, I have to bring this up just because it's been such a big part of my column from way back when about the hammer.

• 1:46:27Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:46:27Bill Simmons?

  For the Oscars.

• 1:46:28Speaker 05

  I shouted you out last week about this.

• 1:46:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's something I was always fascinated by and then it's become a, they've kind of blown that segment out. Sometimes they have people singing to it. There's been times when there's too many celebrities, too many famous ones that died where they have to, they almost can't have the hammer. And this year, I think, is the biggest Oscar year of famous people that I can remember, where we have Redford, we have Rob Reiner, Duval, Diane Keaton, Gene Hackman.

• 1:46:58Speaker 05

  Did Hackman?

• 1:46:59Bill Simmons?

  Hackman count?

• 1:47:00Speaker 05

  Was he on, was he at the end of last year's telecast? I can't remember.

• 1:47:04Bill Simmons?

  Whether he is or isn't, we still have at least like

• 1:47:06Speaker 05

  Major heavy hitters.

• 1:47:08Bill Simmons?

  Four crazy ones. And my guess is that they're gonna do little segments and the show will probably be a little longer than it normally is.

• 1:47:16Speaker 05

  Gosh, I hope so.

• 1:47:18Bill Simmons?

  My guess would be they would have to do four special segments for those four and then do the in memoriam for the rest.

• 1:47:23Speaker 05

  I would be so happy with that as somebody who loves clips and learned about loving movies from watching award shows and learning about what other movies people were in. I think that's a great way to kind of slide people into movie history.

• 1:47:33Bill Simmons?

  Also, four people that are worthy of it.

• 1:47:36Speaker 05

  Oh, no.

• 1:47:36Bill Simmons?

  I mean, they have to do

• 1:47:37Speaker 05

  If Hackman's in there, all five of them are iconic figures. They're incredibly important to the evolution of movies from the 1960s, 70s, 80s into the present day. There is a dead giveaway about this, though.

• 1:47:49Bill Simmons?

  Well, that they're announcing these special people they're doing?

• 1:47:51Speaker 05

  Well, that Barbra Streisand's gonna perform.

• 1:47:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:47:55Speaker 05

  And probably gonna perform Memory, and that would make Redford the hammer.

• 1:47:59Bill Simmons?

  But I think that's gonna be its own segment.

• 1:48:01Speaker 05

  Okay.

• 1:48:03Bill Simmons?

  They already said Billy Crystal and Meg Ryan are going.

• 1:48:05Speaker 05

  For Rob Reiner, okay.

• 1:48:06Bill Simmons?

  And Rob Reiner should get his own segment.

• 1:48:09Speaker 05

  Totally agree.

• 1:48:09Bill Simmons?

  For all kinds of reasons.

• 1:48:11Speaker 05

  Of course.

• 1:48:12Bill Simmons?

  And then if you're gonna do that. You also have to address the Duval and Diane Keaton, and maybe you could say those are the focal points of the memoriam. Diane Keaton, I think, you know, for her stature and just as one of the, one of the best actresses of the last 50 years, it'd be weird to be like, let's just celebrate the guys and skip over Diane Keaton.

• 1:48:33Speaker 05

  Her and Jane Fonda are the signature stars of the 1970s.

• 1:48:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So.

• 1:48:38Speaker 05

  I hope they do that. That would be, honestly, be great. It's obviously terrible that we've lost all these people. But, so, I don't know, the Oscars is tricky with this. Like, sometimes they just forget people in the, in memoriam, you know?

• 1:48:48Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:48:49Speaker 05

  It's, it's not foolproof. It's, it, so I, I hope they devote a lot of time to it.

• 1:48:53Bill Simmons?

  After Duval died, I banged out Tender Mercies with my wife, who had no idea what was going on. I was like, we're putting this on. I want to watch a Duval movie. And it was on Tubi.

• 1:49:02Speaker 05

  Did you like it?

• 1:49:03Bill Simmons?

  It's fucking great.

• 1:49:04Speaker 05

  It's beautiful movie.

• 1:49:05Bill Simmons?

  And I called my dad the next day to check in. And I was like, I watched Tender Mercies last night, figuring that he would like it, because it checks a lot of his boxes. And he was like, just watched it two days ago. It's one of my all timers. Like, really loves it.

• 1:49:18Speaker 05

  Wow.

• 1:49:18Bill Simmons?

  And it's a movie that didn't do that well when it came out. But, uh, I thought one of the things that was so interesting about Duval was how many kind of different people were lurking in his body, where he also had this, like, Texas, you know, country western singer, alcoholic.

• 1:49:36Speaker 05

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:49:37Bill Simmons?

  Domestic abuser, trying to turn his life around, just quiet movie guy, but was also Tom Hagen in The Great Santini.

• 1:49:44Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 1:49:44Bill Simmons?

  And the guy from Colors, and the crew boss in Days of Thunder.

• 1:49:48Speaker 05

  Yes. Apocalypse Now.

• 1:49:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And, and the Apocalypse Now guy.

• 1:49:52Speaker 05

  So, the movie that I watched the night that he died is called The Eagle Has Landed, which is a World War Two, World War Two thriller, um, seen through the eyes of the Nazis. It's about a, a complicated scheme. And in the movie, he plays a, a German lieutenant. And the cast is mostly English actors playing Nazis. And he's an American actor playing a Nazi. So he affects a German accent in the movie.

• 1:50:21Bill Simmons?

  Oh, it's interesting when that happens.

• 1:50:22Speaker 05

  And all the English actors are just doing English accents. So it's a very odd movie to watch, like, Michael Caine's in it, you know, like, uh, he, he did a lot, he was like, he played Stalin in an HBO movie, like.

• 1:50:33Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:50:33Speaker 05

  He had a really big, weird career. Um, he also just.

• 1:50:37Bill Simmons?

  He had some comedy stuff in the 2000s and 2010s.

• 1:50:39Speaker 05

  Kicking and screaming, yeah. But he also, like. Pretty much never bad in a movie. You've never been like, oh, that was a lousy Duval performance. Like, could you think of one movie where you're like, he sucked in that? It doesn't really work that way with him, which is pretty special.

• 1:50:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I I'm hard pressed to think if Hackman counts for this year, if we've had a more impactful five.

• 1:50:59Speaker 05

  I don't know, you probably got to go back to when that first generation, you know, that 30s and 40s generation of actors were dying. And if there was a moment.

• 1:51:05Bill Simmons?

  They were dying young, though.

• 1:51:06Speaker 05

  Yeah, but that's what I'm saying, like in the 70s, there might have been, you know,

• 1:51:10Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:51:10Speaker 05

  Douglas Fairbanks and, you know, people like that who are who are passing away all at the same time. But for us, since we've been alive, this feels like it's the most loaded.

• 1:51:18Bill Simmons?

  Before we go, we have to Goldman's book is next to to the left.

• 1:51:21Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:51:22Bill Simmons?

  Goldman, the number one champion of, uh, show us the fucking votes. Did we ever figure out how we can't find out what the votes are?

• 1:51:30Speaker 05

  No, man, you know, you know, my latest idea for this, right?

• 1:51:33Bill Simmons?

  What is it?

• 1:51:35Speaker 05

  I don't I don't know if I've done this on the show before, if I have, tell me. Um, it's not just that we should know the votes, but I think that the show should be, um, a series of a sequential reveal.

• 1:51:45Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, this is a good one.

• 1:51:46Speaker 05

  So every 20 minutes, another we learn another film has fallen out in the Best Picture race. And then if you want to be.

• 1:51:53Bill Simmons?

  It really only works for the Best Picture race. Where we we drop four and we end up with like, or five, we end up with four at the end.

• 1:52:00Speaker 05

  Yeah, I think.

• 1:52:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I like that.

• 1:52:02Speaker 05

  But that would be really exciting. Now, this year, which is really like a two horse race, it's not as interesting. But just for the viewership, I think it would be for the the common viewer who doesn't follow this stuff closely. When like F1 goes out first, you know, you'd have a lot of people be like, oh, fuck. I liked F1. What's wrong with these people, you know? I don't know, I just I think that'd be really fun if they tried that.

• 1:52:22Bill Simmons?

  That's a really good idea.

• 1:52:23Speaker 05

  And I'm really wondering if if the Oscars going to YouTube, if they will make any modifications in a few years.

• 1:52:30Bill Simmons?

  Is that this year?

• 1:52:30Speaker 05

  It's 28. It's going to be a few years, 20, maybe 29, might even be 29.

• 1:52:35Bill Simmons?

  I thought it was an awesome movie year.

• 1:52:37Speaker 05

  It was.

• 1:52:37Bill Simmons?

  Really memorable. I think part of it had to do with we didn't have COVID anymore and we finally were back and actually making movies. And and we also had good filmmakers making movies and we had good actors and actresses in those movies. So we just felt it felt like COVID feels very far away now for movies.

• 1:52:54Speaker 05

  Yeah, I feel like.

• 1:52:55Bill Simmons?

  Now we just need to make better ones.

• 1:52:56Speaker 05

  It felt like a nice balance of. The industry making franchise movies that were not based on previous movies?

• 1:53:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:53:06Speaker 05

  You had your Minecrafts and your F1s, but then you also had auteurs making big kind of tentpoley movies like One Battle and Sinners and the industry rewarding them, you know, and being like, this is what it should be, guys. Like, give $100 million to really creative people and let them try something new. That's what makes Hollywood special.

• 1:53:23Bill Simmons?

  That would be the positive spin, then the glass half empty spin would be, yeah, Ryan Coogler and PTA and we had some real ass people making movies. That's not going to happen every year.

• 1:53:33Speaker 05

  Well, this year we got Christopher Nolan and David Fincher, you know, like it,

• 1:53:36Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:53:37Speaker 05

  it happens. It can happen every year if we want. The year after that, we got Steven Spielberg this year. We got Jordan Peele in 2027. Like, this is, we're fine. Greta Gerwig's been a movie out this year. Like, we can do this. It's fine.

• 1:53:47Bill Simmons?

  Do we need dynamic pricing for movies?

• 1:53:50Speaker 05

  Oh, it's been pitched. Was it, is it Barry Diller who's been pitching that? Somebody had this idea pretty strongly.

• 1:53:55Bill Simmons?

  I just think the Odyssey should, it's almost like, maybe just in LA and New York, but it should just be like, it's a fucking free for all.

• 1:54:01Speaker 05

  You could easily.

• 1:54:02Bill Simmons?

  Name your price.

• 1:54:03Speaker 05

  You could easily charge 50 bucks to go see it at the CityWalk and people would pay to see it in that IMAX.

• 1:54:07Bill Simmons?

  I think you'd go to higher.

• 1:54:08Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:54:09Bill Simmons?

  Especially because they only have like two or three IMAX theaters.

• 1:54:12Speaker 05

  I don't really want this, though.

• 1:54:15Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I don't think that, I don't want it either, but if it's a way to help save movies, I'm, I'm ready to at least entertain all suggestions.

• 1:54:21Speaker 05

  Yeah, movies are just, they're a mass communion event and they're like a regular, they're an every person art form. That's part of what's so great about them is it's the same ticket price for everybody. It's not like you get to sit in the orchestra and you get to sit over here. We're doing it together. That's the whole beauty of the thing. So I don't, I'm a little, I want movies to be saved, but I'm really resistant.

• 1:54:39Bill Simmons?

  Maybe one theater that becomes the free for all theater where it's like the, the 7:30, like best IMAX possible for the Odyssey and it's like,

• 1:54:49Speaker 05

  Should we open that theater?

• 1:54:49Bill Simmons?

  You know what? Name your price.

• 1:54:52Speaker 05

  Yeah, well, that would be a good business.

• 1:54:54Bill Simmons?

  It's $730 a ticket for Dead Center.

• 1:54:58Speaker 05

  You gotta have really good sound and a good screen in there if you want that to work. It's gotta be the best ever.

• 1:55:03Bill Simmons?

  That's been the other thing that's happening where even like the shitty screens are really nice. Like what's like, oh no, I'm in the laser theater. It's like, all right, I'm still having a great time.

• 1:55:12Speaker 05

  You know, I took, Eileen and I took Alice to see Hoppers yesterday at the AMC at the Americana. And we sat in the Dolby room, which was like a nicer premium thing, but not the nicest room. And it was like being in a fucking amusement park. The seats are huge. It's incredibly comfortable. You feel like you're in your own world. Like if you're willing to pay for it, movie going can be way more comfortable than it was when we were kids. Like we're sitting in these rickety old chairs and everything and the floors were sticky. Like it can be nice. Especially, I mean, in LA, we're very spoiled because we have so many options.

• 1:55:45Bill Simmons?

  Although we don't have the ArcLight still.

• 1:55:48Speaker 05

  No, it's fucking bullshit. Such bullshit.

• 1:55:51Bill Simmons?

  It's an absolute disgrace. I blame everybody. Just keep naming people. Let's blame them too.

• 1:55:58Speaker 05

  Just reopen it.

• 1:56:00Bill Simmons?

  Politicians, like there should just be things that should never disappear in, in different cities, right? Boston has their stuff. New York has their stuff. LA has their stuff. The ArcLight, the Chinese theater here.

• 1:56:10Speaker 05

  I agree.

• 1:56:11Bill Simmons?

  Are just like, should never go away.

• 1:56:13Speaker 05

  Well, I mean, one really good thing that Netflix did was that they came in, they bought the Egyptian and they completely refurbished it. And that's now a beautiful movie theater. We did a live show there last year. It was awesome. We watched Inglourious Basterds there. It was amazing. And to me, I think you're right that the ArcLight, which is a historic movie theater, should be a civic landmark. And they should make it, they honestly put it in the hands of the government for all I care. And have it be an open and active movie business, business all the time.

• 1:56:40Bill Simmons?

  That's when I really had it going, like pre, pre kids to summer 2004.

• 1:56:47Bill Simmons?

  Just writing three columns a week for ESPN and then I'd finish something and I would just tell my wife like, yeah, one o'clock, Arc Light. I might play two.

• 1:56:57Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:56:58Bill Simmons?

  You might see me at six, not sure yet.

• 1:57:00Speaker 05

  Yeah, you're gonna run out there for collateral and Cinderella, man, you know? I'll see you on the other side.

• 1:57:06Bill Simmons?

  I could talk myself into a second one. Who knows? We'll see how it goes.

• 1:57:09Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:57:10Bill Simmons?

  It's really the days.

• 1:57:11Speaker 05

  I'm still doing that and I have a kid. It's a perilous lifestyle.

• 1:57:15Bill Simmons?

  Well, the best was in the, in the nineties in Boston. When I had nothing to do. So it was like the movie, we've talked about this on rewatchables. The movie releases sometimes it was like, holy shit, I, I might be able to do three.

• 1:57:29Speaker 05

  Can I run Jade three times in a row?

• 1:57:32Bill Simmons?

  We, we only had like two really good movie theaters. I mean, that's the other thing. The movie theaters, we're doing a good job of having good movie theaters.

• 1:57:39Speaker 05

  LA is, is amazing right now. I mean, there are a lot.

• 1:57:41Bill Simmons?

  Boston has a couple of good ones. I mean, I know New York City does.

• 1:57:44Speaker 05

  If you're not in a major city, it's a lot harder now because a lot of the smaller stuff is closed. I feel bad for a lot of people out there who really want to go see movies that have to drive a long way. There's a little bit of like an IMAX epidemic where there are not enough IMAX theaters. They should really open more and build more because people want them. I know, I think it's Chicago. You have to drive like a long way to get to an IMAX screen. Yeah, yeah. So there's some issues with that stuff, but I mean, when we worked at Sunset Gower, that was the shit. That was like, we're, we're going to the Arc Light every Friday, every Friday after work. That's what we walked over there. It was the best. So yeah, I really miss it.

• 1:58:17Bill Simmons?

  Movies. Good year. A minus.

• 1:58:20Speaker 05

  Yeah, I hope the Oscars are good.

• 1:58:21Bill Simmons?

  Oh, five, A minus, even though it was over two and a half months ago when it ended.

• 1:58:24Speaker 05

  Yeah, it's just too late, dude. It's just way too late.

• 1:58:27Bill Simmons?

  All right. Well, have fun on the, on the live show.

• 1:58:30Speaker 05

  Thanks.

• 1:58:30Bill Simmons?

  On Netflix, probably around.

• 1:58:32Speaker 05

  Seven thirty PT, ten thirty ET.

• 1:58:35Bill Simmons?

  Are you gonna wear a tux?

• 1:58:36Speaker 05

  I am.

• 1:58:37Bill Simmons?

  Are you really?

• 1:58:37Speaker 05

  Yeah. Spoiler alert.

• 1:58:39Bill Simmons?

  What's Amanda gonna wear? Is she gonna get dolled up?

• 1:58:41Speaker 05

  Yeah, we decided to go super black tie this year.

• 1:58:44Bill Simmons?

  Oh, wow. This is really exciting.

• 1:58:46Speaker 05

  Pretty excited.

• 1:58:46Bill Simmons?

  All right. Congrats.

• 1:58:47Speaker 05

  Thanks.

• 1:58:49Bill Simmons?

  Now it's time for the with the assist segment presented by State Farm. In basketball, the best players don't just go it alone. They lean on teammates, coaches, even fans to push them to be better. And we've seen some pretty iconic assists over the years. You got Bird and McHale, you got Magic and Kareem, you have Pippen and MJ. Lately, we have Jokic and Murray, who won a title together. Probably could have won a second one if Murray hadn't gotten hurt. And this year are having their best combo individual stat season ever. And Denver's been struggling. They've been like 500 for basically two months because the supporting cast got injured. But if anything happens for them in the playoffs, it's going to be the magical combination of Jokic, one of the best players of the last 50 years,

• 1:59:33Bill Simmons?

  along with Murray, who's having the best season he's ever had and has made the All-Star team, this potential Hall of Fame player, and how those guys use each other. In a playoff series where you only have to go four and three to advance to the next round. So Jokic and Murray, that's one of my favorite combos. And like basketball, life is easier with great assists. State Farm is here to dish one your way, a little like Jokic to Murray. They're not just an insurance company. They're a teammate who's on your bench, ready to listen, assist, and help you get the right coverage when it matters most. State Farm with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV.

• 2:00:15Bill Simmons?

  You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching, just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. Hey, I was lucky enough to get a son and a daughter through their early teens and their mid-teens in the social media era. And even though we were constantly monitoring it, there's still a whole bunch of stuff that can go wrong. And that's why Instagram teen accounts have automatic protections on by default. Built-in content settings for the content teens can see. Contact limits for who can contact them and time.

• 2:00:58Bill Simmons?

  Management tools like daily time limits and sleep mode teens are automatically placed in the teen accounts teens under 16 will need a parent's permission to change any of these settings to be less strict instagram will continue adding built in safety features to help create age appropriate experiences learn more about teen accounts and instagram's ongoing work to protect teens online at instagram.com slash teen accounts all right our friend Seth wicker shame is here he has been writing for ESPN for a lot how many years now for you

• 2:01:30Speaker 06

  dude 25 years

• 2:01:33Bill Simmons?

  25 years oh my god so website magazine website and the magazine there's really the magazine has become the website okay and you have a book that came out a few months ago called American kings which is basically a deep dive on the quarterback position a position that we have just not figured out and I want to talk about that in a little bit but what we want to talk about first was Tom Brady a guy that you have covered and written about and just has a bizarre relationship with Patriots that I don't feel like has got enough attention since he's the greatest QB of all time and the greatest Patriot of all time and brought six Super Bowls so Max Crosby gets traded they have a bunch of suitors the Patriots are allegedly one of the suitors and it comes out in the reporting after they turned to Baltimore for two first

• 2:02:18Bill Simmons?

  rounders that the one team Brady said there's no way we're trading there is the New England Patriots this is on the heels of him saying he didn't have a dog in the race in the Super Bowl and just some general vibes of his relationship in New England even when he came back when they did the statue I heard that he got paid to come back because he wasn't coming back for free what happened the last seven years to flip this and is it worse than we thought between him and Kraft because I am endlessly fascinated by this

• 2:02:50Speaker 06

  It's totally weird, and I think that the other thing that makes this kind of Brady aspect interesting is that one of the reasons that Max Crosby wanted out of the Raiders is because of our old friend Alex Guerrero, who of course, depending on the way you look at it, either caused a bunch of problems in New England, or was just somebody that Belichick didn't want around, and so he banned him from the building back in 2017. And so there are all kinds of aspects of it that kind of are Patriot-centric here. But I think that when it comes back to Brady and the Patriots, I think Brady and Belichick are

• 2:03:31Speaker 06

  a different thing, but I think when it comes to Brady and the Patriots and Kraft, there were slew of things that I think happened. You know, we're starting, you know, back in 2010, when Kraft and Jonathan, Robert Kraft and Jonathan Kraft had to get involved in Brady's contract negotiation. We're talking about 2017, when Brady unveils the big TB12 brand, runs into a bunch of problems with Belichick in the offseason, you know, basically tells Kraft that he wants to go to a different team, and Kraft has to figure out a way to keep it together.

• 2:04:03Bill Simmons?

  And that's in Garoppolo range, too, where Garoppolo's the backup, and their wonder anthem is looming as the next guy.

• 2:04:09Speaker 06

  Exactly. And then you have, they beat the Rams in the Super Bowl for the second time in 2019. And then he comes back, wants his contract redone, you know, really a statement that he'll, you know, retire a Patriot. Remember, he wanted to play until he was age 45, and he did. And really, what the Patriots gave him was a one-year deal with a little bit more money and an opt-out to be an unrestricted free agent. And remember, he, he put his house on the market the day after that deal was announced. And so I think-

• 2:04:40Bill Simmons?

  And everyone in the Brady camp was like, it's no big deal, it's just a coincidence. But none of this was a coincidence.

• 2:04:46Speaker 06

  It's never a coincidence. And I think that's how Brady talks, you know what I mean? He's never going to hold a press conference and, you know, do what Kobe Bryant might have done. You know, I mean, this is how he talks to the public. And I think that, at the end of the day- Belichick opened the door for Brady to walk out, Kraft backed him and you know, Brady went on to win a Super Bowl with another team. And so I think that like all that stuff is wrapped up in it. I mean, remember like Joe Montana was traded from the 49ers to the Chiefs and it took like a decade for the ownership to try to get him back involved after Eddie D, you know, had kind of flamed out and had to give the team to his sister. I mean, some of these great athletes just hold these epic legendary grudges. And you know, you see a little bit with

• 2:05:31Speaker 06

  Brady in a cute way, like how he wasn't following the Patriots on Instagram and that broke, um, you know, Super Bowl week also. So I think that's the gist of it, but we can go deep on any of those things.

• 2:05:41Bill Simmons?

  Peyton Manning and the Colts, that was another interesting one. Brett Favre and the Packers, another interesting one. So normally, you know, maybe a 50/50 chance that it doesn't end awesome with the, with the team and the QB if they feel like the QB who's established himself as like this incredible alpha dog. I've done everything. As the skills start to decline, you get the wrong coach in there, the wrong GM, something weird with the owner, a cheaper owner, whatever. And it goes sideways. I wonder if this was as simple as this was about money and Belichick and Brady, a relationship that you were reporting about, and I didn't want to believe it for years. I

• 2:06:22Bill Simmons?

  remember getting mad at you a couple of times. But clearly, clearly some stuff happened in the 2010s that they worked together for too long. They started to wearing each other's nerves. Belichick was, who's a, a, a pretty logical guy, or at least he was in 2010s. He's basically playing this like the Seattle Seahawks non-timeout before the Malcolm Butler play, where he's just like, I'm playing the odds here. Nobody's played quarterback till 45. I want to still coach. I want to still win Super Bowls and it's unrealistic for this guy to go past 40. I need alternatives. And meanwhile, you have Brady going, I'm playing till I'm 45. I'm doing this. And then you have Guerrero in there, who's like this weird shaman, you know, doing whatever. You

• 2:07:07Bill Simmons?

  have TB 12, whatever the deal Kraft made with Brady to build that whole center there. Um, and, and it just became a Molotov cocktail, ending with them not committing a long-term deal to him in 2019, heading into the 2019 season. And that feels like That's why I wonder if him and Kraft, it's a little deeper rooted than maybe we knew. Where he felt like, yo, man, your team is 10-tupled in value since I showed up. Maybe 20-tupled. You've won the most valuable franchise in the league. You're the black sheep of the Boston sports scene for decades. Now you're the role model of the entire city and you're the role model of the league. I did that, Belichick did that.

• 2:07:52Bill Simmons?

  And now you're telling me to basically take a one-year deal and walk off into the sunset. Fuck you. I wonder if it's as simple as that.

• 2:08:00Speaker 06

  Well, and I think that there's a collective aspect of, and this is, I think Brady actually is underappreciated. Look, it's hard to find anything in Brady's life that he's underappreciated for. But I think that like, when it comes to eating shit and his capacity to eat shit, it's really kind of remarkable because there's no way that Dan Marino or John Elway or Aaron Rodgers would put up with some of the stuff that Brady put up with. And like, look, in 2010, Brady wants a new deal. And even though he had always taken below-market deals, he was willing to do it again, but he didn't want to do it quite as drastically. And the Patriots actually wanted, so Kraft ends up getting involved because months and months go by and nothing happens on the Belichick front.

• 2:08:43Speaker 06

  The Crafts get involved, and this is in training camp. And the Patriots wanted to sign Brady to a longer contract actually than he wanted. And the reason why he wanted a shorter one was because he knew that Belichick loved to trade guys as soon as they got a little bit older and a little bit expensive. So forget about like age 45, we're talking about like age 35, 36.

• 2:09:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:09:06Speaker 06

  And so the Patriots ended up caving and he got the short-term deal that he wanted. They sweetened it and extended him in 2013. And then, once they went, you know, five, six Super Bowls. Brady saying like, you know, look, I have, we've, what we've accomplished is unprecedented for a coaching quarterback. Like, I want to retire here. And Bill was just never on board with it. Remember, he presented Kraft with a study once that showed how quarterbacks dropped off the cliff after age 36.

• 2:09:40Bill Simmons?

  Which by the way is accurate, or was accurate at the time.

• 2:09:43Speaker 06

  Yeah. And Brady keeps defying the odds. And then he still can't get that long-term deal. And then in addition to everything else, you know, he's still, you know, Belichick mocked him after the AFC championship game against the Jaguars when, you know, he had his hand sliced open. And he's like, you know, we're not talking about open heart surgery here. I mean, Belichick, it was so hard for him to give an inch when it came to public displays of affection for Tom. And, you know, that was the world in which he was raised. I mean, he was raised in a, in a loving family. And I think that like, he always kind of wanted Belichick's, not only approval, but just kind of like, hey, we're in this together and we're going to ride it out and go down as the greatest ever by far.

• 2:10:25Bill Simmons?

  I wonder if Deflategate had anything to do with this too, where Belichick basically ran for the hills when Deflategate broke, right? He, he seemed way more concerned about, I don't know what the fuck was going on over there. I wasn't involved at all. And I don't think that went over well. So you have that, you have Garoppolo, two years later looming as the next kind of

• 2:10:45Speaker 06

  You have Garoppolo, you have Alex Guerrero.

• 2:10:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And then Guerrero piece. Yeah, exactly. I understand the Guerrero piece though, because when you're, I'm sure Vrabel's like this now with the Patriots where you have this team, everyone's aligned. The, the medical staff, the coaches, everybody's like one thing. And that Guerrero thing was kind of over here. And then some of the other Patriots started drifting over. I thought, I, I, I thought Brady maybe didn't see that that, that was, uh, not awesome for the Patriots, but, um, there's, there's another thing here. And, and it ties into what's happening right now is we're taping this on a Tuesday morning with Kraft, who

• 2:11:28Bill Simmons?

  I don't want to call him cheap, but let's just say he hasn't been extravagant these last 10 years, right? And there's been some, I think Philly has been a good example of a team that has really smartly used the NFL salary cap to their advantage where you like spend, spend, spend, spend. The cap keeps going up and you're basically like treating it like this dinner check that you can just keep ordering and you don't have to pay the check. Kansas City's done this too. Kansas City gave that giant long contract to Mahomes a few years ago. And they like, they restructured that this year and they restructured and all of a sudden they can sign Kenneth Walker. The Patriots never did that with Brady. They never did the 10-year, $320 million deal, whatever, that you can pay somebody a lot

• 2:12:13Bill Simmons?

  upfront and then basically redo it, restructure it, and you're basically borrowing from this Brady contract ATM, like what the Chiefs did with Mahomes. And I've never got a good answer for why they didn't do that.

• 2:12:26Speaker 06

  And I think it was philosophically Belichick also. Look, look, there's, there's few ways that especially Belichick tweaks Kraft that hurt a little harder or cut more to the core than when he talks about cash spending. I mean, it really bugs Robert Kraft. And, you know, in a lot of ways, you can't blame him. But I think the other aspect of that is that the Patriots were always about the next year. So they didn't want, you know, they always wanted to do what was best for the latest iteration, iteration. And like when you had Brady at the end of his career, he wanted to be more involved in personnel. Remember, he took that, he took that, that sort of below market deal, but it was an extension in 13, and then they let Welker go, right? And so he was pissed about that.

• 2:13:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:10Speaker 06

  Even though they ended up, you know, that let Edelman grow into a good player and it ended up working out, but he was upset about that. And at the end of his career, he was really interested in personnel. And you know, Belichick was never going to let a quarterback have that kind of say. I mean, I think he involved Brady in a lot of really interesting and unique ways. But there was no way that he was going to have Brady in on these scouting meetings. And I think that was interesting because remember the Belichick method is to take young guys and give them all kinds of football work and this great football education and let them in the room. And then, you know, have them funnel information to Bill, who ultimately makes the decision. And here Brady was, having been in the NFL for 20 some years, he wanted to try to have

• 2:13:55Speaker 06

  a say in some of these things. And that, you know, wasn't going anywhere in New England.

• 2:14:01Bill Simmons?

  I wonder first if they had done the long contract like what the Chiefs did with Mahomes.

• 2:14:06Speaker 06

  Mm hmm.

• 2:14:07Bill Simmons?

  I wonder if that flips this completely. And the other thing I wonder, if they had done something near the end where it's like, finish your career here and you'll get a piece of the team at the end on a discount. Basically what the Raiders got with him. They never did that either. And from what we know from the crafts, you would have had to pry even 1% from his, from his sweaty hands. It just never would have happened. So, near the end, the two most, they weren't underreported, but they were kind of underappreciated stories, was him looking for an escape hatch during the, his last Pats season with either Miami or New Orleans. There was a lot of reporting about this and it was kind of a crazy story that I never

• 2:14:52Bill Simmons?

  felt like, God, it's just you. And I think all the Patriot fans were like, I love Brady. I'm going to kind of look the other way on this one and pretend this never happened. The Miami thing was a real thing.

• 2:15:04Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 2:15:04Bill Simmons?

  It seemed like he had going during the last Patriot season as he's in the same division with Miami. And that fell apart at the end. But what do you, what did your reporting say about that?

• 2:15:17Speaker 06

  Well, and like, look, Ben Voight of the Boston Globe did a really good job of reporting on this, and so did Jeff Duncan down in New Orleans. I mean, the other interesting piece is that Sean Payton was in the middle of both of those. And they're both represented by Don Yee, who's a, you know, fantastic agent, but those were his two biggest, you know, high-profile clients. So you have Sean Payton, who, as he told me, you know, felt like he could never get a jump ball in New Orleans, either from like a free agent or especially the league office, the type of things that the crafts kind of enjoyed for a long time. And then you had Brady leaving, and for a while, Payton walks away from the Saints, and he's all set to go to Miami. Now, the question I have,

• 2:15:59Speaker 06

  and I never was able to figure this out, is if Brady, well, rewind. In 2000, Brady's looking, he's a free agent, and the Saints looks like it's going to be the place that he either strongly considers or ends up.

• 2:16:14Bill Simmons?

  In what, not 2000, what year, 2000?

• 2:16:16Speaker 06

  I'm sorry, 2020, yeah, 2020. And so, he, I think San Fran was a number one on his list. He would be close to his parents, he could play for Kyle. At the end of the day, you know, the Niners were really interested in him, but they just felt like they couldn't do it to Jimmy, coming off a narrow Super Bowl loss.

• 2:16:34Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 2:16:34Speaker 06

  So Brady turns his attention, and New Orleans is really interested in him. It looks like Breeze is going to retire, and Sean desperately wants to coach Tom Brady. Breeze ends up coming back, and that blows that entire thing up. Brady ends up in the Bucks, and of course, ends New Orleans' season in the playoffs. And then you have two years later. So remember, Brady retired for a period after his second year in Tampa, and I think he was so frustrated with the way that things were going. You know, look, I think there were some personal issues going on at that point, too, but... The Bruce Arians Tampa Bay Buccaneers were nowhere close to the Bill Belichick New England Patriots. I mean, it's like going from Harvard to Florida State.

• 2:17:20Speaker 06

  And so he retired and was looking, it looked like everything was going to come together in Miami. Now, I think he was going to be an executive there because the Bucks still held his rights, I think.

• 2:17:32Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 2:17:32Speaker 06

  And so I think he was going to go to Miami. Sean Payton was going to be a coach and he was going to be an executive there. But Brian Flores and his lawsuit ended that. And so that's how we ended up, you know, with Brady, you know, looking in, looking at the Raiders. And of course, Sean Payton in Denver.

• 2:17:50Bill Simmons?

  But wasn't there also the scenario near the end of his Pats career where he was looking at Miami? And maybe Sean Payton jumping to Miami? And that was, I mean, that was the thing I remember from his last year.

• 2:18:00Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 2:18:00Bill Simmons?

  Where there was going to be some sort of combo thing that they never really figured out.

• 2:18:05Speaker 06

  Right. Well, remember some of the, the, the meat of the Flores lawsuit was tampering charges against the Dolphins involving Brady. And so, yeah, that was a key element of it also.

• 2:18:19Speaker 06

  You know, again, like that entire situation just kind of imploded.

• 2:18:22Bill Simmons?

  But I mean, because the alternate universe is they just keep giving Brady a 10 year deal and keep rolling the money over. And he just plays with the Patriots for 25 years and gets a piece of the team after and everybody's happy. Instead, he's in Las Vegas where he gets a small piece of that team. And he's in charge of, seems like in charge of front office stuff. Combined with these announcing games on Fox, which I thought he got a lot better last year. I actually really enjoyed him by the end of, by the playoffs last year, I thought he was excellent.

• 2:18:54Speaker 06

  Me too. Yeah.

• 2:18:55Bill Simmons?

  But.

• 2:18:55Speaker 06

  And the other weird thing about, yeah, but the other weird thing about the Raiders is he's on the headset for the coaches during games. I mean, like there's people at the smarter teams around the NFL who saw him on the headset. I think our friend Peter Schrager was the one who pointed it out during the Monday night football broadcast.

• 2:19:14Speaker 06

  Who just loved it. I mean, that speaks to a level of dysfunction.

• 2:19:18Bill Simmons?

  Well, and the Guerrero thing too, that came out too. That was the Athletic wrote about that they thought he was like Brady's spy in the locker room. Basically, that was crazy.

• 2:19:28Speaker 06

  Well, not only the spy, but they're advocating a certain methodology when it comes to helping players prevent injuries and recover from them. That, you know.

• 2:19:41Speaker 06

  Brady is the lone shining, you know, testament to.

• 2:19:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:19:46Speaker 06

  And there's a lot of, you know, passing of traditional principles of Western medicine within that. And in the center of it is Alex Guerrero, who really doesn't have a lot of credentials, other than he's Tom Brady's guy and he was Willie McGinnis's guy. And so that I think is the problem. I mean, these are professional athletes and I think that they had a big issue with him in all of those ways. I mean, remember he has this vague title. I think it's wellness coordinator.

• 2:20:13Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 2:20:14Speaker 06

  And, you know, part of it is because there were rules about who can work with players. And I think that, you know, the reason why he doesn't have, you know, I'm making this up, a chief medical officer of as a title is because of that. He doesn't have those credentials.

• 2:20:30Bill Simmons?

  Right. Well, they check a lot of boxes for the fourth place, the first place team with the fact that they traded Crosby for the two picks. They have Mendoza, maybe he's good right away. They had Kubiak from Seattle. They spent a lot of money in free agency this week. And we've just seen this recipe before. We saw it with the Patriots last year. We saw it with the commanders two years before. And but the dysfunction around the team

• 2:20:56Bill Simmons?

  makes me wonder, should we start looking for another fourth place, the first place team? I don't know. We have six months to stare at it. I can't get over that.

• 2:21:06Speaker 06

  Well, really quick, what do you think? What do you think about Mendoza? Like, do you think Brady looks at him and sees part of himself reflected in him?

• 2:21:15Bill Simmons?

  Very possibly. I know he was, he was a little fascinated by him, right? But the thing is, like, I think, my thing is, he's gonna go first. The people like the draft experts, like the guys we have, like, I think Shay and Danny Kelly, people like that, they don't feel like he's the best part in the draft, but he's in the vicinity, which I think is okay. I think when teams get in trouble is when they take the 13th best guy in the draft first. Seems like he's, you could have him wherever in the top seven, but he's at least, he can kind of sniff the number one spot, which makes it a little more palatable. And there's also nobody else in the draft, which is the other thing. But, um, yeah, he seems like a Brady kind of guy. Really smart, got better every year

• 2:21:58Bill Simmons?

  in college, like really driven. Um, just seems like the kind of guy Brady would have responded to. I don't, I don't know if Brady would have been. Just like he, I don't think he would have been a raw tools, lower act type of QB. I don't think that would have been, right? Do you agree with that?

• 2:22:15Speaker 06

  Yeah, I mean, I think it's interesting because in one sense you have Mendoza who's, you know, he faced a couple of crossroads in his career in college where this easily could have gone the other way. And maybe he doesn't really have much of a college career. And I'm sure that Brady can relate to that in his own way. And yet another aspect of it that I find interesting and Brady has talked to me about this over the years and he's, I think he's mentioned it elsewhere. It's just like how lucky he was to be under the radar at a young age. The fact that when he was a rookie, nobody was paying any attention to what he was doing when he was out there with the practice squad guys after practice throwing balls in the dirt and cussing up a storm.

• 2:22:55Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 2:22:56Speaker 06

  And how much respect he has for guys like Peyton Manning and Elway and these guys who were the, had so much attention and pressure and accolades and, and eyeballs on them and that they were able to, to make it work and they were able to live up and maybe even exceed those expectations. Like those two dynamics are really fascinating to me because there's no way that the Raiders are drafting a quarterback that Brady doesn't like. I mean, I think that's, we can just say that. And I'd be really curious, like which parts, again, the biggest question in sports is like, how do you find greatness in a quarterback? Brady completely turned that question, whatever theory we had for Brady's career turned it on its head.

• 2:23:38Speaker 06

  And I'm curious, like what parts of it he sees in himself and what he doesn't.

• 2:23:43Bill Simmons?

  Well, one thing we've learned from football and basketball is that great players don't necessarily have that skill set to figure out, if anything, they're, they're probably a bad judge because either their expectations are too high or they look at it as like two glass half full versus like just a cold evaluation of it. So I have no idea if he has that skill set or not. I wonder with Kraft, if you had to do this over again, I feel like he would just run it back the way it played out with the Pat sucking for four years, but ending up with Drake May, Rabel showing up and them not being beholden to Brady, him not giving an ownership piece to Brady, even though it was clumsy and weird and it's led to a very strange

• 2:24:27Bill Simmons?

  relationship with Brady and the team. I don't think Kraft probably cares. And in general, like.

• 2:24:36Bill Simmons?

  It's a weird one because the team does not spend like other teams would in the position they're in now. And you could even feel it a little bit in free agency. You could feel it in the way they didn't take care of some situation. Like they, they lost Tonga to the Chiefs, who they could have just spent money on in November, December, and they had a little contract thing with them and they ended up not doing it. And then they lose them. It's the little stuff like that, that you don't see like the teams like Philly and the Rams, they just spend the money. And that's who they're competing against. So they got to the Super Bowl last year and a lot of it had to do with schedule and, you know, the luck of the weather in Denver that day in Stidham. I don't know if they were a Super Bowl team, but they, they got some good breaks. But going forward, they have this incredible chance with May on a rookie deal. And I just wonder if they're gonna

• 2:25:21Bill Simmons?

  blow it or not.

• 2:25:23Speaker 06

  I mean, remains to be seen. But like, I, I think going back to what you were saying, I think it hurts Kraft that Brady self identifies as a Raider. And I think that like, you know, I mean, going back to 20, so I don't know if he would do it exactly the same. I mean, going back to 2010, you know, Brady's paranoid that Bill's gonna trade him the moment that, you know, he starts to see a decline. And, you know, Kraft told him, look, I'm not going to tell Belichick what to do. But if he decides that he wants to move on from you, I'll give you what you need to have some agency over your next destination, whether that's, you know, letting you pick your trade partner, or just being an unrestricted free agent,

• 2:26:07Speaker 06

  whatever that is. And so, you know, that ended up playing out in 2020. But I just think that like, it hurts Kraft deeply that Brady goes and wins a Super Bowl in the, as a buck, and that he comes back to New England and beats them as a buck. And, you know, he's sitting there with Belichick as they're slogging through these losing seasons.

• 2:26:31Bill Simmons?

  Just getting mad or mad at him.

• 2:26:33Speaker 06

  Where they're losing games like 10 to 3, right?

• 2:26:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:26:35Speaker 06

  And then, you know, as soon as Kraft has a chance, he has Brady back at the stadium. I mean, I think he's doing anything he can to remind Tom Brady that, you know, these people love you. And I think that Brady knows the fans love him and he'll always have a good relationship with Kraft. But, you know, he has that.

• 2:26:54Bill Simmons?

  I don't, see, I don't know. I think when, I think that was a really important moment when he said he didn't have the dog in the race. I know for a fact, I think that Kraft were like, what the fuck? You know, Vrabel is caught up in coaching for the game, but Vrabel is like his buddy. Like they had this whole extended crew that would go to the Kentucky Derby, all these different places, like Vrabel, Wes Welker, Izzo, all these guys. Vrabel is one of the guys and so is Brady. Like that's his real friend. That would be like if Joe House was coaching for the Super Bowl and I was like, yeah, I don't have a dog in this race. I thought it was really, really weird and kinda, I, to me, it said, it said something a little bigger about his relationship with the team.

• 2:27:36Speaker 06

  Absolutely. And I think that like Brady might look at the fans one way and the Krafts the other, whereas he can love them and he knows that he cosmically won, but he won't forget that, you know, they allowed him to walk out of that building. I mean, you know, these are,

• 2:27:51Bill Simmons?

  like, at some point, it's six years later, you have a statue, like you're a patriot. But I, that's the point. It's like, I don't think he thinks that way anymore.

• 2:28:00Speaker 06

  No, but, you know, Joe Montana does a documentary where he starts criticizing George Seifert, and this is 30 years after the fact.

• 2:28:07Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 2:28:08Speaker 06

  John Elway does a documentary where, you know, Dan Reeves, who is deceased, can't even defend himself and they crap all over Dan Reeves in that documentary. You know, I mean, I think that like, the level of scar tissue that the greats, you know, accumulate over the years, even though we intellectually know it, we still kind of are surprised by how deep it goes.

• 2:28:32Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, as you were saying that, I was thinking if I did a documentary, would I take shots at Skipper and Walsh or not? I might. Who knows? All these years later. I don't know. Maybe, maybe I'd be bitter about something. Yeah, the Brady thing's really weird, though, and, and just that him being in Vegas of all places. Anyway, all right. While you're here, you did, you, you're basically like psychologically profiling the quarterback position, which is impossible. And as the years have passed, we are exactly the same at either, it's basically 50 50, having no idea who's going to be good, who's going to be not. And as I get older and I look at this stuff, the only thing I really, that I've

• 2:29:14Bill Simmons?

  really landed on is fit combined with competitiveness seems to be the two things that give you the best chance. Caleb was somebody you spent a lot of time on in the book. I read the book, I don't know, five months ago. So I'm remembering from, you know, retroactively. Caleb's somebody that I really feel like could have gone either way and ended up in this awesome situation with the right coach, the right season. You could see him growing. I don't want to say he was changing, but it was just, stuff was bubbling to the surface with him. And now I think he's in incredible spot. Whereas like if he had just gone to Arizona from day one, been on a,

• 2:29:57Bill Simmons?

  you know, a typically crappy Cardinals team, developing bad habits, running for his life every play. There's a version where it just goes Kyler Murray land. So is there anything else I'm missing other than fit and competitiveness?

• 2:30:11Speaker 06

  Yeah, I mean, context matters so much. I mean, where you go ends up so much. You know, it just mattered. And I think that like, one of the most interesting aspects that I think about, and this is one of the reasons why I think someone like Mendoza will probably be a good pro, is I spent a lot of time with Kevin O'Connell for the book. And remember, Caleb Williams, I reported in the book, wanted to play for Kevin. I mean, they loved each other during the draft process. It was never going to happen, but Caleb kind of fantasized about it. And so K O C, he's a four year starter at San Diego State. He ends up getting drafted by the Patriots. He figures he'll sit behind Brady for a year and then you take what he learned to another team and start for 10 years and have a great career. And he never could

• 2:30:54Speaker 06

  catch on. I mean, his career was over in like in a year. And that devastated him. And so when he was first, you know, giving up on his dream of playing and getting into coaching, he went back and he looked at all the game winning drives from Elway and Dan Marino and Joe Montana and Tom Brady especially, and wanted to know, it was very autobiographical. He's wondering like what he lacks. And when he watched them, he realized that all of these unbelievable throws that you see Elway make, these kind of highlight reel throws, were never really in those situations. Like, those situations were dominated by them doing the mundane, simple stuff at the highest level.

• 2:31:36Speaker 06

  Like, if you watched Joe Montana against the Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII, I mean, almost every pass on that last drive was a check down.

• 2:31:43Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 2:31:43Speaker 06

  And when Kevin O'Connell was trying out for teams, he was trying to make that John Elway throw. And he realized that was like the very worst thing you should do. And I think that like, the ability to take what's there and to not get sacked and, you know, just keep the chains moving while you're learning how to play, I think is one of the most kind of hidden factors in, you know, quarterback development. It's one of the reasons why I think that like Brock Purdy has done well, is because he knows, he knew to do what the coaches told him to do, until he had like developed enough knowledge on his own where he could make decisions a little bit more for himself. Now, a lot of quarterbacks struggle with that. I mean, Caleb Williams spent his entire life making those highlight

• 2:32:27Speaker 06

  reel throws where he runs left.

• 2:32:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:32:29Speaker 06

  And throws from his ankle. And it goes 70 yards in the air. But those situations hardly ever come up in the NFL. It's really like embracing the mundane that I think is the prelude to being an effective NFL quarterback.

• 2:32:42Bill Simmons?

  Decision making, efficiency. I think toughness is a huge part of that. Like, I really, I really grew to like Tyler Shuck last year. I thought he was good. He had some of the stuff you're talking about, but he was also like a tough motherfucker. Like, he took big hits. He'd run out of the pocket. He was just, he just kept getting up. And that was one thing. There were two things that stood out in those early Brady years. Cause I was in right away with it. Like, I was living in Boston that year. Brady versus Bledsoe became the, the only thing anyone talked about. And I was always Team Brady because. I felt like there was inefficiency with how he did everything, whether it was play action. Just the ball was always in the right spots and he was tough.

• 2:33:24Bill Simmons?

  And he took some big hits those first couple of seasons that there's some good Instagram, you know, or YouTube clips of just him getting popped, he would immediately get up. And he was just a, just a tough motherfucker and you just knew it. And he did everything like really well, nothing great. And then the greatness came probably, probably four years in, I really felt like the third time they won the Super Bowl, the Pittsburgh playoff game, that was the one was like, wow, this guy's like, you know, we were hoping he would be like basically the Bill Russell to the Manning Will Chamberlain. But somewhere in that third Super Bowl season was like, wow, this guy, holy shit, where's this gonna go?

• 2:34:05Speaker 06

  He's incredibly tough. And I mean, like, I remember when they played the Chargers in the AFC Championship game during the oh seven season, the undefeated year.

• 2:34:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:34:13Speaker 06

  And they played that game, it was an ugly game, Chargers easily could have won really if Phil Rivers had been healthy. And Brady gives his press conference and I was there and I was watching him when he exited and there's like a step that they, that you stepped down. And when he did, his leg buckled. I was completely stunned and he limped around a door so fast. And I think that like most people there kind of missed it because they were hustling to get into the locker room. And then it comes out that, you know, he had this high ankle sprain in the Super Bowl and still went out and played, got his ass kicked in that game, but fought like hell. Throws a 67 yard pass with seconds left that really Moss could have, if he had made more of an effort on, maybe he catches that.

• 2:34:54Speaker 06

  I think that like, when you talk about Caleb Williams, like one of the things he showed me as a rookie was that he was tough as hell. I mean, he got sacked a lot and hit a lot and a lot of it was his fault. But there was a game and I think they were playing the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, if I remember right. But he ran to the right and he got hit on the borderline of it being legal right on his knee. And I mean, it looks like one of those hits where you're like, this guy's done.

• 2:35:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:35:21Speaker 06

  And his season's over and he got right up. And I think that like, The things that Caleb's proven is that he's got that magic, which, you know, nobody can predict. And then he's also just tough as hell. And I think that like the, the, the ways that he'll grow as a quarterback will be, you know, incrementally when he learns to, you know, take the easy throws and keep the chain moving. And no, that'll come with time. But I think you're right. And the toughness factor is something you can't know until you know, because there's no way to replicate how hard these guys get hit in the NFL.

• 2:35:55Bill Simmons?

  There's also the damage you get from the first couple of years. You might not be able to bounce back from. You start getting the eyes in the back of your head. Once your head's on a swivel. Lombardi always used to talk about the eye contact drops down toward the line instead of looking over the line. That was a fear with, with Drake May that first year when he was just getting the absolute shit kicked out of him. This year, it wasn't much better. And then in the playoffs, he just got annihilated. And, you know, I still feel like he was, what, they'll never tell us how hurt he was because they were probably lying on the injury report. But I think it was the accumulation of all those hits combined with the fact that he's such a tough guy.

• 2:36:37Bill Simmons?

  It really felt like he was breaking down by the end of the year. And that's where you don't want, because three years from now, that's not going to be headed in a good place if they don't fix that.

• 2:36:46Speaker 06

  Yeah, there was that clip of them that went viral. There was NFL Films and Josh McDaniels is telling him on the bench, like, you know, I know it's hard, but you know, you're never going to forget this feeling. You have a chance here. And I bet you anything, he was talking about not, you know, battling through Denver's defense.

• 2:37:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, or the snow.

• 2:37:07Speaker 06

  I think it was because his shoulder was really, really bothering him. And I'll be interesting to see. I mean, like, what do you think a bad game like Drake May had at the Super Bowl? Can derail a guy sometimes. I don't think it will with Drake, but I mean, does that concern you with him?

• 2:37:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I, I think the Pats fans, it was the combination of all the hits he took the four games. Um, the fact that he just didn't seem like the same guy by the time we finished the Super Bowl. Um, and they weren't even running plays they normally ran for him, right? He's so good on the run to his right. They just stopped doing that, which really made me think he was hurt. Um, his guys weren't getting open anymore either, which was the other thing. I think they cut ties with Diggs, partly because he kind of peaked in that Bills game in Buffalo. And after that was never really the same and never really open in the same way. So I, it's, it's a fast anyone, much tougher schedule. Um, the offensive

• 2:38:06Bill Simmons?

  line, they, they got Vera Tucker, but I, I, you know, they really have to hope that Will Campbell's better. We don't know how hurt he was. Um, but I only think you have so many seasons in a row where you're just getting hit like that. He, and I think Vrabel was telling him, like, when you're, when you're scrambling, you have to just go down, you have to slide because you could see it all year. He was not reckless. And that's the same thing Harbaugh will do with Jackson Dart this year. But long-term, you know, you look at what the Chiefs were able to do with Mahomes for those first couple of years where they, they were just able to kind of protect him in the formative years. And that's what Chicago wants to do with Caleb, right? They lost their center this week, uh, or last week, he retired suddenly. They had a really good offensive line to

• 2:38:48Bill Simmons?

  begin with. That's what Denver was able to do with Bo Nix. Um, just, just block for our guys. So Vegas, Brady's like, I'm going to overpay this. This is by far the most we've ever paid a center in the league, but I want to make sure that this guy doesn't get his ass kicked in year one. So I do think that's part of it. We had Jim Plunkett when I was growing up in New England, who was just discarded to San Francisco, you know, after a few years, because he just got the crap kicked out of him. Took him years to come back.

• 2:39:18Speaker 06

  And he was like the first of those guys that you see now with anyone that the Jets pick, you know, where like, and mostly, you know, until Caleb with the Bears where, you know, He looks like a bust and then he goes to a different team and he has phenomenal success and it shows that context matters.

• 2:39:36Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's the Sam Darnold thing too, right?

• 2:39:38Speaker 06

  Exactly. And Gino, you know what I mean? Baker Mayfield to an extent. I think that like the only question I have about Drake is I would like to see him perform a little better in two-minute situations against like the best teams. Like I remember that second Bills game where, you know, New England really just, they couldn't stop him and they couldn't stop Josh. And, you know, they were at home, they needed this game and Drake got the ball and I think they went four and out. If they didn't, it was pretty close to that. And this wasn't like a very dynamic Bills defense that he was against. Um, you know, I wonder, like, again, I think Drake's going to be a phenomenal player, but like Caleb and Bo Nix have been better in those absolute clutch situations, I think, than him so far.

• 2:40:22Bill Simmons?

  And the starter games too was another thing that was, he would kind of settle in by the second quarter. Um, you, when you, when you were working on this book, the big draft was the three guys, May and Daniels and Caleb, that we all had a chance to, we all felt like they had a chance to be special. And Drake was the one people seemed to be the most split on. So I'm sure you were talking to teams like, yeah, he's, we don't have him in the top 10. We don't see it. He's too erratic. And then other people that loved him.

• 2:40:54Speaker 06

  And I spent a lot of time with him and his family. And I mean, the one thing I loved about Drake, if I were looking to draft him, and it reminded me of Brady, was that he came from an incredibly loving, yet really competitive family. I think that like when he, a key moment for him that's kind of overlooked is when he decided to not go to Alabama and he decided to go to UNC. Because being a May who goes to UNC is not just a normal decision because...

• 2:41:22Speaker 06

  He was risking something worse than, you know, having a losing season or not panning out. It was that at Thanksgiving, he would look with, sit with the table with his brothers and he'd be the one who hadn't, you know, done what they had done. And instead, he ends up becoming, you know, a phenomenal prospect. I thought the most interesting thing with, with Drake coming out of the draft was Belichick's opinion of him because, you know, he was really, really dismissive of Drake in some ways, especially when it came around, you know, how young Drake was and how little experience he had. I mean, that was pretty clear. He liked, you know, Drake's arm, but he really didn't think that he was seasoned

• 2:42:05Speaker 06

  enough to maybe be picked that early. And, um, you know, I always wonder like, how much of that is him giving an honest assessment and how much of that is where Drake ended up going?

• 2:42:16Bill Simmons?

  I never really bought that one. That felt, that felt like a little vindictive by him. As you've studied all these quarterbacks and talked to all these people, was there anyone in the last 20, 25 years that people were like, still don't understand why he didn't make it? Still don't understand what was missing? Not sure this guy's the outlier? Or was there a reverse of like, I can't believe this guy made it. I still don't understand. You can't replicate what happened with this. Maybe Purdy was the guy for that. I don't know.

• 2:42:46Speaker 06

  Yeah, I mean, Brock stands out, but Brock was so, you know, he was Mr. Irrelevant. And so, you know, nobody was talking about him really that much. I mean, people are thinking he's going to be an unrestricted free agent. I think the thing that's interesting is just that like, you had that series around the turn of the century where you had like Kurt Warner and Brady and Jake Delome and Mark Bolger to a certain extent. You had these, these guys who were coming, you know, low draft picks, coming out of nowhere and leading their teams to these phenomenal seasons. And then things kind of settled down. Like, we didn't want to admit it quite as much, but just about like every good player as a quarterback who ended up panning out was a first round pick. I mean, there's a couple

• 2:43:27Speaker 06

  exceptions, but for the most part, they were first round picks. And so I think that like, even though

• 2:43:33Bill Simmons?

  And now it's flipped.

• 2:43:33Speaker 06

  we're so bad at this. Yeah. And now, now we're back on the other side of things. But, um, you know, I think that like,

• 2:43:42Speaker 06

  The weirdest thing about college is just that you can't trust, you know, statistics at all. It's like the equivalent of like performance inflation and grade inflation where it's like Mike Leach and How Mummy created these dynamic offenses that opened these huge windows for quarterbacks that just don't exist in the NFL and they help you win games. Bailey Zappi, your boy owns the touchdown pass record for most touchdowns in the season in college. I mean, he can barely hang on in the NFL. And so, you know, I think that that's the most interesting thing. It's just like you cannot trust any statistic for a quarterback coming out of college.

• 2:44:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you can't even, accuracy was always a good one. But then there's been some guys like, like the Josh Allen types where they're like, yeah, we fixed it. He's now accurate. And it's a little like with, in the NBA with shooting where there were guys over the years, like Kawhi Leonard was a good one. He fell out of the lottery because he couldn't shoot three pointers. And then this person's like, yeah, we fixed it. And then he was fine. So, yeah, the, to me, the competitiveness, the efficiency toughness, and then, you know, the obviously the Johnny Menzel types where it's like this guy might not be able to handle success.

• 2:44:55Speaker 06

  Yeah, total.

• 2:44:55Bill Simmons?

  This guy might not be able to handle being the focal point of a franchise.

• 2:44:59Speaker 06

  And I wrote about it in the book, but Sean Payton, you know, developed this kind of analytics formula that he did on his own, which was like a failure metrics where he looked at negative plays that college quarterbacks had and divided them by attempts and came up with a certain number to see, you know, how often they had negative plays. And so, you know, Sean looks at, at sacks as a quarterback stat. He doesn't look at it as a, an offensive line stat. If you look at Russell Wilson in Denver, he, through his first 50 starts, he was sacked like maybe three times higher more than, than Bo Nix was in his first 50 starts. And in that draft class, Bo Nix had the best.

• 2:45:44Speaker 06

  Or I'll say the lowest failure index and that's originally, look, he knew he wasn't going to get Caleb, but everybody else might be in play. And because of Nick's, you know, because he took so few sacks, high completion percentage, hardly ever fumbled it despite playing in, you know, rainy weather sometimes. He felt like, okay, this guy processes quickly. And it's just one team, but that's a way that he tried to take analytics about the hardest thing possible in judging a quarterback, which is quick thinking and processing speed, and try to project it forward. And so far, it's worked out. Okay. I mean, his, his, his,

• 2:46:25Speaker 06

  Mahomes was, I think, by far the best ever at, at his formula.

• 2:46:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:46:31Speaker 06

  But generally speaking, it's worked and I think it's held up pretty well in the NFL.

• 2:46:36Bill Simmons?

  Last thing, when, uh, after your book came out and people read it, was there one comment from anybody in the league that read it that about something in the book that made you go, oh, I didn't realize I was on to something there. Was there anything that surprised you?

• 2:46:53Speaker 06

  The coolest thing about it was the, like, I played, I'm not trying to be the Uncle Rico of Alaska here, but I played quarterback in high school and, you know, I, I failed at it and it wasn't great. And, you know, those, those things, you know, I always was curious about it, but, you know, I wrote it for quarterbacks of all different kinds. Like at some point I wanted any quarterback who read it to feel like maybe there was a phrase where their life felt it intersected with it. And the coolest thing was just like Steve Young, Alex Smith, like some of these guys who read it and, and I, I chatted with them is just how much of themselves they saw in the book, even in moments where I wasn't writing about them. So that was, I think that was the coolest.

• 2:47:34Bill Simmons?

  Interesting. Well, Steve Young was a good one, right? Because he's somebody that, if he wasn't wired the way he was, it just would have been too much too soon. USFL was a mistake. Never got a chance. And then he has an eight year career and he's out of the league. And it's like, oh, man, remember Steve Young? He was so talented. What happened to that guy? But he just kind of wouldn't let it happen.

• 2:47:53Speaker 06

  He's a great philosopher, like quarterback philosopher, like Dan Marino doesn't know a day in most of his life where he can't throw the ball wherever he wants, whenever he wants, right? And Steve had to work at it. And so few of these guys, like you go back to what we were saying earlier, where the greats often can't coach because they can't explain the things that they did.

• 2:48:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:48:13Speaker 06

  Whereas like Steve can actually explain it in really fascinating, honest, kind of vulnerable terms. And you know, that's, he's just a great guy to shoot the shit with about quarterbacks because he sees where other people see analytics or reads, you know, he kind of sees cosmic powers, which I think is really fascinating.

• 2:48:38Bill Simmons?

  Well, it's like, I remember Dilfer, like the, maybe the third year I had my podcast, he was on, it was the Mark Sanchez draft. There were a bunch of quarterbacks and Dilfer said on the pod about, if you had all these guys together and were headed somewhere and I needed somebody to drive the car, I would toss the, the keys to Sanchez. And I was like, oh, the car keys test. I like this. But he was like, that's, that's, that's the kind of alpha Sanchez is now. I mean, these days you probably wouldn't want to toss the keys to him, but uh, he, uh, he, I, it made me wonder like, cause I always thought charisma had to be a piece of this too. This is the last thing we'll say and then we'll go, but like you're, you're in, you're in a huddle with these dudes.

• 2:49:22Bill Simmons?

  It's a 70,000 seat stadium. There's an incredible amount of pressure. Half of the guys in the huddle are bigger than you and at some point they have to believe in you. And this was what I saw happening with the Patriots or Drake during the year, the, the little anecdotes of the way they were talking about him was like, oh, this is good. That they're talking about, well, when we have our guy, we have a chance against anybody. Like there has to be some sort of bigger belief in the guy for the season. And you kind of know it when you have it and you know it when it's not there too. So I, I feel like that all ties together somehow.

• 2:49:57Speaker 06

  Yeah. Dilfer called it dude qualities. Um, like I once, when I, when I was interviewing Steve for the book, Steve Young, I asked him, like, what are all the hats you have to wear as a starting quarterback for an NFL team? And I mean, he leaned back in his office and he just starts going. So matinee idol, field general, spokesperson for a multi-billion dollar organization.

• 2:50:18Speaker 06

  You know, chief cheerleader, breathtaking asshole at times, like, you know, all of these things.

• 2:50:24Bill Simmons?

  How about wide receiver therapist? Like these wide receivers, like you constantly have to make sure they stay invested and you're going to get the ball this time and I'm sorry I missed you and you're just constantly like

• 2:50:35Speaker 06

  It's like daycare manager.

• 2:50:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, totally. Just trying to keep them happy so they don't check out.

• 2:50:40Speaker 06

  Exactly. It was like all of these hats that had nothing to do with making reads and throwing the football. And I think that's why, you know, I wanted to write the book because when you decide to be a quarterback, you're not just doing it because you throw the ball well, you're taking on all of these other identities and qualities that, you know, can help form you, can help destroy you later in life, like all of these things that I wanted to write about.

• 2:51:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:51:09Speaker 06

  But are essential for playing quarterback at the highest level.

• 2:51:11Bill Simmons?

  All right, it's called American Kinks. Got Father's Days coming up down the road, Mother's Day's coming up, but something to read as we, as we miss football all the time during the offseason. What are you working on, anything big? Any, any big story coming?

• 2:51:26Speaker 06

  You know, I spent the entire playoff run with Sean Payton in the Broncos. I had full access. So I wrote about the fourth down.

• 2:51:32Bill Simmons?

  That story was great. I love that story. Yeah, because he blew the game, that one decision.

• 2:51:37Speaker 06

  You loved how it ended.

• 2:51:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I did. I loved how it ended, but it was also interesting.

• 2:51:42Speaker 06

  But I had never done this before where I was spending like 14, 15, 16 hours in every meeting, watching every decision get made. And so I accidentally reported an entire book on that. I don't want to write a book, but it's going to be a really good story, I think, on ESPN when, when I get it done.

• 2:51:59Bill Simmons?

  Nice. All right, cool. Good to see you, Seth. Thank you.

• 2:52:03Speaker 06

  Good to see you, man.

• 2:52:04Bill Simmons?

  All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to the Cuz, thanks to Wicker Sham, thanks to Fantasy, thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as always, and I'm going to be back on Thursday with one more episode of a very fun sports week. Don't forget Fargo up for the new rewatchables and I will see you on Thursday.

• 2:52:44Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESSET. Call 888-797777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts, or call 877-8HOPENY, or text HOPENY in New York. For Louisiana, call 877-770-7867. This episode is brought to you by 7Up. Okay, this one's a case for conspiracy bill. Let's bring them in.

• 2:53:25Bill Simmons?

  Ever noticed lemon is everywhere, from lemon recipes to lemon-scented cleaning supplies? And when it comes to lemon-lime sodas, why is lemon always first? There's a reason. A shadowy organization called the A Lemonade has been padding the stats, keeping big lemon in the lead for decades. But let me tell you something, the sip is about to be flipped. 7Up is fighting back, swapping lemon lime for their new Lime Lemon Soda. Now lime comes first. 7Up, flip the sip. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, I like those guys, star in the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner Martin McDonagh.

• 2:54:06Bill Simmons?

  Writer-director of The Banshees of Inisherin and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island, Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters November 6. Get tickets now.