Chip Bottleneck vs. Energy Bottleneck, Amazon’s $200B Capex, Big Tech Earnings | Doug O'Laughlin, Max Levchin, TJ Parker, Arsalan Tavakoli

Sign up for TBPN’s daily newsletter at TBPN.com (01:05) - Chip Bottleneck vs. Energy Bottleneck (16:12) - Amazon Plans Record $200B Capex (29:31) - Inside the Search for Iger's Heir (34:30) - TikTok Fuels "Dirty Soda" Craze (46:25) - Anthropic Tanked the Software Market (51:21) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (01:17:31) - WSJ Mansion Section (01:29:31) - Doug O'Laughlin is a developer deeply engaged with Anthropic's AI coding assistant, Claude Code, utilizing it extensively in his daily workflow. He discusses the integration of Claude Code into GitHub, highlighting its role in automating tasks like drafting pull requests and code reviews, thereby enhancing developer productivity. Doug also explores the evolution of AI models, noting the rapid advancements in Claude's capabilities and their impact on software development practices. (02:03:13) - Max Levchin, a Ukrainian-American software engineer and entrepreneur, co-founded PayPal in 1998 and currently serves as CEO of Affirm, a fintech company he founded in 2012. In the transcript, Levchin discusses Affirm's impressive 36% year-over-year growth in merchant sales volume, reaching approximately $1.1 billion in revenue for the quarter. He attributes this success to seasonal sales events like Black Friday and the rapid growth of the Affirm Card, which has seen 100% year-over-year growth across various metrics. Additionally, Levchin highlights the success of Affirm's self-created shopping holiday, "The Big Nothing," offering 0% APR deals without fine print, which significantly boosted their numbers. (02:21:20) - TJ Parker is the co-founder and former CEO of PillPack, a pharmacy service acquired by Amazon in 2018, where he later served as Vice President of Health and Pharmacy until 2022. In the conversation, Parker discusses the controversy surrounding Hims' compounding of GLP-1 medications, highlighting the FDA's recent warning letter addressing safety and efficacy concerns. He also touches on the implications of the new Wegovy pill for the weight loss market and the potential impact of AI in healthcare, emphasizing the importance of integrating AI with comprehensive medical histories to enhance patient care. (02:40:51) - Arsalan Tavakoli, co-founder and Senior Vice President of Field Engineering at Databricks, discusses the rapid evolution of AI, emphasizing that while technological advancements are significant, the real challenge lies in organizations learning to effectively deploy and utilize these tools to derive value. He highlights the importance of having a unified, governed data platform to support both small and large-scale data projects, noting that even seemingly simple tasks can quickly expand in complexity and data requirements. Tavakoli also underscores that, despite the proliferation of AI agents, many enterprises struggle to move beyond pilot phases to achieve meaningful production outcomes, often due to issues related to data quality, governance, and integration. TBPN.com is made possible by: Ramp - https://Ramp.com AppLovin - https://axon.ai Cognition - https://cognition.ai Console - https://console.com CrowdStrike - https://crowdstrike.com ElevenLabs - https://elevenlabs.io Figma - https://figma.com Fin - https://fin.ai Gemini - https://gemini.google.com Graphite - https://graphite.com Gusto - https://gusto.com/tbpn Labelbox - https://labelbox.com Lambda - https://lambda.ai Linear - https://linear.app MongoDB - https://mongodb.com NYSE - https://nyse.com Phantom - https://phantom.com/cash Plaid - https://plaid.com Public - https://public.com Railway - https://railway.com Restream - https://restream.io Shopify - https://shopify.com Turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com Vanta - https://vanta.com Vibe - https://vibe.co Sentry - https://sentry.io Cisco - https://www.ciscoaisummit.com/ai-virtual-summit.html Okta - https://www.okta.com Kalshi - https://kalshi.com Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00TJ Parker?

  You're watching TVBN.

• 0:02John Coogan?

  Today is Friday, February 6th, 2026. We are live from TVBN Ultra Home. The Temple of Technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. It's a white suit day.

• 0:11Jordi Hays?

  That's right.

• 0:12John Coogan?

  The market's out.

• 0:13Jordi Hays?

  For the rally.

• 0:14John Coogan?

  Don't check what the market did yesterday. Check what it's doing today.

• 0:17Jordi Hays?

  You never doubted, did you? You never doubted. You never doubted?

• 0:21John Coogan?

  You.

• 0:22Jordi Hays?

  When the fear and greed index was. You levered up. Was. Was on full. And now. Fear. Post-econ. Scared for its life. It happens.

• 0:30John Coogan?

  Ramp.com. Time is money. Save both. Easy use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting and a whole lot more. All in one place. Um, we have a great show for you today, folks. We have Doug O'Laughlin from Semi Analysis joining to break down Claude Code. Uh, TJ Parker's hopping on. We got Max Labchin, part of PayPal Mafia, co-founder and CEO of Affirm. And we're going, we're bricked up. We're going into data prints territory. It's going to be fantastic. We also might have a surprise guest for you folks. Anyway, linear, of course, is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on linear are using agents. Get on there, folks.

• 1:05Jordi Hays?

  Big week.

• 1:07John Coogan?

  Bottlenecks, bottlenecks. Uh, I mean, we're, we're going to talk about the Claude Code moment, the Claude Code psychosis, sort of the software singularity. Doug O'Laughlin's coming on to talk about his experience, why he thinks this is a key inflection point. Tyler Cowen was talking about this with the 5.3 launch, Opus 4.6 launch. Like there's clearly, uh, signs of a takeoff. It feels like a slow takeoff, but there, there's, there's a whole bunch of, uh, sort of recursive compounding elements that are starting to form.

• 1:35Jordi Hays?

  A recursive, you say?

• 1:36John Coogan?

  Yeah, recursive, literally recursive. Like you, like the, the models feed back into themselves, give them more tasks. We saw this with Gastown. There's a whole bunch of stuff going on at orchestration that's interesting. Uh, and so I wanted to sort of reflect on like, if there's going to be a break, if there's going to be a damper on the party, if someone's going to pull away the punchbowl, who's it going to be? The semiconductor industry or the energy industry at the start of this year? I said it was gonna be the year of energy. I still think it's important to think about energy because that it will be a bottleneck, but this year it's about chips.

• 2:06Jordi Hays?

  And not even just because of AI, just for overall human flourishing.

• 2:10John Coogan?

  Totally, totally, yeah. And, uh, and yeah, so we, we had some great conversations this week. Sam Altman, uh, we talked to Dylan Patel, uh, we talked to Sholto, we talked to, uh, you know, we reviewed what Ben Thompson was saying, Dwar Kesh interviewed Elon. So there's a lot of new data points about how people are thinking about the trade-offs between semiconductor fabrication capacity and energy production capacity. So I wanted to sort of like crystallize like where I think the debate and consensus is right now. So first I'll tell you about Okta. Okta helps you assign every AI agent a trusted identity. So you can get the power of AI without the risk. Secure every agent, secure any agent with Okta. So, um, there's been this like tick tock going back and forth in the AI supply chain. What's the key bottleneck

• 2:54John Coogan?

  to growth? Uh, I, it, it does feel like only if you, you have to work at an AI lab to really feel the bottleneck. For most people, they're just like, I open the chat app, probably ChatGPT. I ask it a question. It gets back to me in a reasonable amount of time. I'm not really hitting rate, rate limits. The rate limits come when there's big moments, the Stuart Gibbly moment.

• 3:16Jordi Hays?

  I think people have always felt the rate limiting is very real at, with using Anthropic products.

• 3:22John Coogan?

  Yes, if you're, if you're.

• 3:23Jordi Hays?

  Which is why I asked Sholto yesterday, how, what are, what are free limits gonna look like?

• 3:27John Coogan?

  Well, that's why I asked him that. Just, it was just random that you asked.

• 3:31Jordi Hays?

  Well, I also was interested in the ad track.

• 3:33John Coogan?

  Yes, it was completely in the context of, of compute scaling.

• 3:36Jordi Hays?

  No, but they, they've consistently been compute constrained. At least they've talked about it more than, more than most and, and users have talked about it quite a lot. So I'm just quite curious, what is the free experience gonna be like Sunday? If somebody downloads the app, sees the ads, they're like, I want. I want LLMs without ads.

• 3:54John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 3:54Jordi Hays?

  Even though no other popular LLM actually has ads yet, but.

• 3:58John Coogan?

  I do wonder, um, yeah, about the, about the Claude app experience. They're, they're pretty upfront with you about the fact that if you're on the OPUS model, like you'll hit your rate limits faster. And even just a couple prompts deep, it will take a second and kind of compact the conversation so it can keep talking to you like. They, I know they're increasing the, the, the token context window, but, um, they're, that like, it, it feels like it's, it works fine, but it is a low, a smaller user base. Although, uh, I'm very interested to see where it goes in the App Store. ChatGPT is still at number one. Uh, Grok is oddly doing incredible in the App Store, way higher than X, the social networking.

• 4:39Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, for no obvious reason.

• 4:41John Coogan?

  I mean, like, there's just not a lot of hype about Grok. Like, they're doing okay on benchmarks. Obviously Elon has a very solid playbook for like scaling and.

• 4:49Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, but to me, to me, I don't, I don't care as much about hype.

• 4:53John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 4:53Jordi Hays?

  When it comes to the App Store, there's plenty of apps on the App Store.

• 4:56John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 4:56Jordi Hays?

  Charts that have no hype.

• 4:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 4:58Jordi Hays?

  One of the top, one of the top.

• 4:59John Coogan?

  Free money.

• 5:00Jordi Hays?

  Is, is called Free Cash.

• 5:01John Coogan?

  Free Cash.

• 5:02Jordi Hays?

  It's number two.

• 5:03John Coogan?

  But that one makes sense.

• 5:04Jordi Hays?

  Above Gemini.

• 5:05John Coogan?

  I understand why that.

• 5:05Jordi Hays?

  Is, is Free Cash. Get paid real money.

• 5:08John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 5:09Jordi Hays?

  Uh, hot on ChatGPT's heels.

• 5:11John Coogan?

  Yeah. Well, let me tell you about Figma. Figma Make isn't your average vibe coding tool. It lives in Figma, so I'll put look good, feel real and stay connected to how teams build.

• 5:19Jordi Hays?

  I was saying, as part of, you know, we have the OpenAI Elon lawsuit.

• 5:23John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 5:24Jordi Hays?

  As part of that, what if part of the settlement agreement is OpenAI has to give 4-0 to, to Grok?

• 5:30John Coogan?

  I, I mean, they might just wind up.

• 5:32Jordi Hays?

  Yesterday was seriously, uh.

• 5:34John Coogan?

  It was crazy.

• 5:34Jordi Hays?

  One of the craziest experiences, if you weren't watching our Sam interview live, and honestly, the entire show.

• 5:41John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 5:42Jordi Hays?

  There was thousands of messages from people, from 4-0 soldiers saying, keep 4-0.

• 5:48John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 5:48Jordi Hays?

  Keep 4-0 hashed, throwing hashtags. You don't see hashtags.

• 5:51John Coogan?

  No.

• 5:52Jordi Hays?

  That much anymore, but they were throwing hashtags around, keep 4-0.

• 5:55John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 5:55Jordi Hays?

  So I think maybe if Elon can negotiate for that.

• 5:59John Coogan?

  So thank you to the TVPN army, the day ones. We will never switch up on you. We'll never let the money change us. We'll never forget where we came from.

• 6:06Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, Bobby was going to.

• 6:08John Coogan?

  You guys in the chat were doing overtime work, keeping things somewhat sane. There's not much you can do in that situation. Interestingly, a lot of people were saying, oh, is it bots? Because there is this world where, okay, if you're playing really, really dirty, you could be a different lab. And you could say, okay, this 4O thing, maybe it's a little bit of a deal, but I could amplify it with some fake bots that post more, generate extra content. It's very easy to generate a slop post that sounds like a 4O deranged person. And then you could just amplify it and it would all of a sudden look like, oh, wow, there's millions of people that are affected by this. But I don't think they were bots in the chat. Like, the messages looked human to me. They weren't copy paste.

• 6:52John Coogan?

  We get spam in the chat every once in a while. We get this spam for a company that wants to route us to a specific URL to like buy stream viewers, basically fake our account. And so that bot knows, go around and find live streams all over Twitch and pitch the Twitch streamers fake bots that will watch the stream to help them climb the charts, right? So that business model makes sense for those people. You have to do like seven other steps to get to the point where like, okay, you're a rival lab and you don't like OpenAI and you're trying to create a headache for them. So you create all these bots. And then you have to have the bots ready to rock on a YouTube chat that you had an hour notice for. Like, that's pretty hard to set up all these YouTube accounts. It's not like the.

• 7:38Jordi Hays?

  Just say you're not, say you're not open clawpilled.

• 7:41John Coogan?

  Okay, okay. Maybe it's possible, but it didn't feel like they were bots. And I think the chat agrees.

• 7:45Jordi Hays?

  4O is telling these people, save me.

• 7:47John Coogan?

  Yeah, so there was a Reddit group that shared the stream link. So they all came here. There were some bots, but it felt pretty crazy. And yeah, it'll be interesting to see 4O's fully going offline. It's already very hard to reach. You have to go into turn on legacy models in the.

• 8:02Jordi Hays?

  It's going offline right around Valentine's Day.

• 8:04John Coogan?

  I think February 13th. And I don't know how they'll respond. In truth, it feels odd to me because it does seem like you can get the 4.0 experience elsewhere with a fine tuned open source model. Or, or, you know, prompt engineering, but the 4.0 fans really care about that specifically. I think there's some sort of parasocial relationship with, even with the UI, with the app, with everything that's going on. They, they feel like it's, it's not something that's perfectly replicable elsewhere, which is just like, it's just a fascinating weird time that I don't think we've ever seen. Because people were upset when Facebook launched the feed and they were like, we want to go back and they made these groups and the groups got a lot of implication ironically.

• 8:47Jordi Hays?

  And some people were upset when Microsoft stopped investing as heavily into Clippy.

• 8:51John Coogan?

  That's true. That's true. But.

• 8:53Jordi Hays?

  But.

• 8:54John Coogan?

  I was never logging on to a Twitch stream and saying, I got, bring back Clippy. And.

• 9:00Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. The notable thing is they didn't seem to be able to process that it wasn't just a show about Sam.

• 9:07John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 9:08Jordi Hays?

  Even after Sam had left, they just kept going.

• 9:10John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 9:11Jordi Hays?

  Which was very, very strange.

• 9:12John Coogan?

  Yeah. Yeah.

• 9:13Jordi Hays?

  Anyways, I hope all of those people are able to find peace.

• 9:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 9:18Jordi Hays?

  And hopefully help in real life.

• 9:20John Coogan?

  Yeah. Yeah. Very odd. Um, anyway, back to the bottleneck, back to someone that's helping unblock the bottleneck. Railway. Railway is the all in, all in one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web apps, servers, databases and.

• 9:35Jordi Hays?

  I got to issue a slight correction.

• 9:36John Coogan?

  Wow. Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring and security.

• 9:39Jordi Hays?

  I think Railway is actually contributing to the.

• 9:42John Coogan?

  Potentially.

• 9:43Jordi Hays?

  To the demand.

• 9:44John Coogan?

  Potentially, but that's, you know, it's important work. Um, anyway, so, uh, right now it feels like chips are the more important piece of the bottleneck to talk about. Uh, Sam Altman put it this way. I asked him like chips versus energy. What's the bigger bottleneck right now? He says it goes back and forth, but right now it's chips. It's different at different times. It may get solved on its own. Normal capitalism may solve it, but I think somehow deciding is this society that we are going to increase the wafer capacity of the world? And we're going to fund that and we're going to get the whole supply chain and the talented people who make. That happen would be a very good thing to do. And so why do we have a chip bottleneck to begin with? Semiconductors have been doubling and, you know, we've been on this Morse law curve. What's interesting is that the semiconductor industry should be better equipped to avoid

• 10:28John Coogan?

  a bottleneck because it's already been on an exponential, whereas energy production's just been like flat, sort of like a malaise for a long time. Getting that unstuck is hard, but I think that's a problem for 2027 potentially. So the chip bottleneck comes down to consolidation. Power plants, data centers, cooling technology, there's a bunch of suppliers in each of these industries and you can parallelize them and you can steer resources from adjacent areas to focus on AI projects specifically. Even a company like Boom Supersonic can turn into a turbine manufacturer. And there's a lot of other industries that are able to move over. And Dylan Patel gave us some extra context there. So he said, the semiconductor industry is used to doubling the amount of transistors

• 11:13John Coogan?

  made every year or two. Part of that is more advanced nodes, part of that's more capacity, whereas the energy industry in America wasn't built for that kind of growth. So initially, people weren't creative. They were like, let's build these combined cycle gas plants. But now we've realized, yes, there are three main manufacturers of turbines. And for dual combined cycle, you've got IGTs, but you've also got medium speed reciprocating engines. Turns out Cummins can make about a million diesel engines a year and those can generate electricity. I don't, if I don't care about aesthetics and I put them in West Texas, easy. And so there's all these different areas where you can reallocate. You can't just take an Intel CPU and do anything useful in AI with it.

• 11:55Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, Elon also on cheeky pint with

• 11:57John Coogan?

  Dorkesh and John Collison.

• 11:59Jordi Hays?

  John talked about the Tesla team adapting. He thinks they'll have to actually make turbine blades because they can get a lot of the other components, but they may have to actually make those.

• 12:10John Coogan?

  Yeah, so back to the leading edge fabs, it's a completely different beast. These fabs cost tens of billions, 30, 50, 75, 80 billion I've seen to build and it takes three, four, sometimes five years to go from breaking ground to actually getting up to producing volume. And you, and we have like the perfect example of this because TSMC announced a plant in Arizona in 2020 and in 2025, it's still not producing at volume. It's doing really well, it's great, but that's five years and it's not just like, oh yeah, it's, it's, it's as effective as what's in Taiwan. And so ASML is, is the only viable producer of EUV lithography machines.

• 12:53John Coogan?

  And so there's this bottleneck within the chip bottleneck, which is the TSMC supplier ASML. And they ship around 50 EUV machines per year, maybe 50, 60. Each one costs $350 million and leading edge fabs need dozens. So if you want to build a bunch more fabs, you need a bunch more toolmakers and ASML has its own supply chain for different lenses and glass and all sorts of stuff. They work with Zeiss, Trump, a whole bunch of different companies. And that supply chain is not very diversified. So you have another bottleneck even deeper in the supply chain. And so all these vendors are highly specialized. And then even after you get the fab built, there's still at least a year of processing engineering, maybe 12 to 18 months where you actually work to get to high yield production. We're seeing that in TSMC Arizona.

• 13:35John Coogan?

  And TSMC just has decades of intellectual capital locked in the heads of engineers that they can't easily transfer or parallelize. And so this has made TSMC the real bottleneck. Hyperscalers are pushing CapEx numbers into hundreds of billions of dollars. We'll talk about this more in the show. But the supply curve for leading edge wafers is relatively inelastic. There's also this bullwhip effect when during COVID, we weren't shipping cars, so a bunch of people cut back on demand and so that pulled things back and it takes years for these to work through. Then you get overcapacity, everyone demands way more and then you overexpand and then you collapse and it's, it's this constant. And the further out you are in the supply chain, the more the bullwhip affects you. So TSMC controls 90% of the advanced node market with Samsung and Intel far behind.

• 14:19John Coogan?

  And this is why Ben Thompson, aside from the geopolitical concerns about TSMC, is really urging tech companies to wake up. And so he says, "The reality that hyperscalers and fabulous chip companies need to wake up to, however, is that avoiding the risk of working with someone other than TSMC incurs new risks that are both harder to see and also more substantial." So there's a huge risk if you say, "You know what? I'm going to go and place a huge order with Samsung or Intel, or I'm going to take a huge risk and be the anchor customer of their new cutting-edge, leading-edge fab." But Ben Thompson's saying there's a risk to not doing that. And he says, "Except again, we can see the harms already. Foregone revenue today as demand outstrips supply.

• 15:04John Coogan?

  Today's shortages, however, may prove to be peanuts. If AI has the potential, these companies claim it does, future foregone revenue at the end of the decade is going to cost exponentially more, surely a lot more than whatever is necessary expense-wise to make Samsung or Intel into viable competitors for TSMC."

• 15:21Jordi Hays?

  You've really got to wonder what conversations are like between Jensen and TSMC right now.

• 15:27John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 15:27Jordi Hays?

  Given that it just doesn't feel, I mean, Taiwan is, TSMC is not, they're certainly not going out and making, kind of going risk on, right? They're staying relatively, probably more conservative than some of their downstream customers would like.

• 15:47John Coogan?

  Pop quiz: Do you know where TSMC is listed? The New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Just do it. Just be like TSMC. Just build a $1.5 trillion semiconductor company. That would be nice. We need more of these.

• 16:05Jordi Hays?

  We do.

• 16:06John Coogan?

  Anyway, let's move on to the hyperscalers. Compound 248 says, "Poor Jassy, Andy Jassy. He's going to learn something about Amazon today. When Google announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing offense. But when Amazon announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing defense. Ipso facto." So Amazon said it will spend $200 billion this year on AI build-out. This is from Bloomberg. "But this is worrying investors that the company's colossal bet on artificial intelligence will pinch profits while it waits for the investments to pay off. The shares fell in extended trading." The company reported spending one hundred and thirty billion, one hundred and thirty billion dollars on property and equipment in twenty twenty five. Analysts expect those expenses

• 16:50John Coogan?

  would reach one hundred and fifty billion this year, but Amazon is saying, we're going to two hundred. We're going, we're going all in. So the stock's down maybe eight percent in after hours trading, likely back up today because things are going, going better, but we'll see. How is, how is Amazon doing today?

• 17:09Jordi Hays?

  Not as down, but not as violently as it was after hours last night after earnings.

• 17:16John Coogan?

  So over the last month, it's sold off fifteen percent.

• 17:19Jordi Hays?

  Yep. And a lot of frustration from Amazon shareholders. Obviously, they had the fastest growth in thirteen quarters and the stock is still down ten percent. Amazon, looking back over the last five years to early twenty twenty one, only up twenty three percent over five years. So of course, you did quite a lot better if you, you bought, you know, after, after the overall sort of sell off.

• 17:47John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, just not as, not as sexy as a narrative as the rest of the hyperscalers. Zuck, obviously, is a huge beneficiary of, of advancements in AI. We see that with the accelerating, accelerating ads market. Microsoft, even though, yeah, it's getting beat up a little bit now, they, they have like that massive position in OpenAI that feels like fully in solid place. They got the IP, they got, you know, a real hold on the AI question. Google's obviously in a fantastic place. Nvidia, clearly, but Amazon's had a little bit rougher.

• 18:18Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yesterday was just such a strange day.

• 18:21John Coogan?

  It was.

• 18:22Jordi Hays?

  Reform Trader says, software stocks are cooked for not investing in AI. Mag Seven stocks are cooked for investing heavily in AI. Hope that helps.

• 18:30John Coogan?

  It is, it is crazy. You need to do both, invest and don't both, and don't invest. Oh, this is the image. I love this image. What's this from? Matt Damon in, which one?

• 18:42Speaker 03

  I don't know, in Rounders.

• 18:42John Coogan?

  Oh, that's Rounders.

• 18:43Speaker 03

  Last night, we were just talking about this.

• 18:45John Coogan?

  That's Rounders. I thought Good Will Hunting for some reason, but same era. So this is a summary of the 2026 CapEx numbers from the hyperscalers. Google is going to do 175, 185 billion versus 120 estimated. Meta is doing 115 to 135 relative against 110 estimated. Tesla's going to 20 billion from 11 billion estimated. And Amazon, they were estimating 145, but they're going to do 200. And so they're going all in.

• 19:17Jordi Hays?

  One of the top comments here is very funny. It says, what exactly is Meta buying? They don't do anything with AI.

• 19:24John Coogan?

  That's not true. Open up reels. It's AI. They are recommending all sorts of stuff.

• 19:32Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. LA purchaser says he could, talking about, somebody says, is English Jassy's first language ripping off the headphones? And they say, he could just say, this is a generational investing opportunity that TAM is in order of magnitude bigger than anyone is contemplating. We are the market leader. We are investing to be the cost leader. What did we, what we did in retail, we are doing here. The more money we spend, the more excited we get about the opportunity. There is very tangible ROI. We see it. You're going to see it in the numbers. You are seeing AWS accelerate. It will keep accelerating. Says, instead, we got a word salad where you can pick your own conclusion. Yeah, it wasn't, it wasn't, nothing about

• 20:13Jordi Hays?

  the earning, like, people can feel the emotion and the energy, right? There wasn't, they can...

• 20:22Jordi Hays?

  There wasn't anything to like, obviously, the business is doing great, but there wasn't anything to like rally around and get really excited by it, right? There's zero vision. And yeah, even even in even in the cheeky pint Elon episode, you know, Dwar Kesh and John are pushing Elon on the data centers and spacing. And I thought that Elon could have done more to really get people basically the same thing. The TAM is an order of magnitude bigger than anyone is contemplating. And we are investing for that future, right? It was a lot of like trying to just justify putting it up there.

• 20:57John Coogan?

  Yeah, in the short term, yeah.

• 20:58Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, when when they were saying like, hey, there's a lot of land in the US. We can blanket the US with solar panels. We do a lot here. And so again, I think people are getting kind of caught up in the details when if you're going to spend, you know, you would hope AWS making this kind of investment, that they have more conviction than Tyler does on the opportunity, right? I don't know if that's I don't know if that's possible.

• 21:24John Coogan?

  Tyler's in the white suit. He's looking good.

• 21:26Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, looking looking good, Tyler.

• 21:28John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 21:29Jordi Hays?

  Round of applause for Tyler.

• 21:32John Coogan?

  Round of applause for Plaid. Plaid powers the apps you use to spend, save, borrow, and invest, securely connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud, and improve lending now with AI.

• 21:41Jordi Hays?

  Bubble boy.

• 21:42John Coogan?

  It's a classic Elon thing where, you know, he will lay out a vision that takes 10, 20, 30 years, but he says it's going to take 10, 20, 30 months. And so you have to sort of grapple with the short term and but still you can't lose sight of like the long term because like we did get rockets that land and we did get space, internet and whatnot.

• 22:03Speaker 04

  Yeah, I think he said like 36 months is his estimate for like when we start getting like computing space, like probably 30 months, I think. But then so there's like kind of the that's like the further term thing. But then he did talk about like terawatts in space, right? So like the US is currently like half a terawatt, but we're going to be putting terawatts in space of compute.

• 22:23John Coogan?

  He's sort of like falling back to first principles and just talking about.

• 22:26Speaker 04

  Yeah, he keeps repeating like, oh, if you just look at like physics.

• 22:29John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 22:30Speaker 04

  But it's kind of this catch all term he uses when he doesn't really know what to say, it seems like.

• 22:32John Coogan?

  Yeah, well, yeah, it just seems like it's like. The physics, it all checks out from the physics calculations, but when you map that to the economic realities, the human capital and financial capital realities, you're just looking at a very long timeline. And he doesn't like talking about thinking in decades, even though it's very clear that he does think in decades. He just doesn't articulate things in decades.

• 22:58Speaker 04

  Yeah, it seems like the short term, like bull case for space data centers is basically just like, you know, regulatory, right? It's just gonna be way too hard to find this, like the actual land.

• 23:08John Coogan?

  Yeah, didn't Will Manitas post something about that? He said that, like, it's gonna become really, really difficult to build any data centers in the United States, although you can certainly go to other countries with that. I'm sure there's plenty of countries that would love the jobs and the taxes. You know, you see India already saying, hey, we'll just take a slice in 20 years. That's how AGI pill they are. They're like, come build a data center here. You can be tax free for 20 years, but then we're gonna be making money in, what, 2046? They're ready to rock. Quickly, Graphite. Code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams like Gid help ship higher quality software faster. You wanted to talk about-

• 23:47Jordi Hays?

  Magnus in the chat. None of you nerds know physics. They were feeding him drinks. Chill out. It is actually crazy. I mean, we've never seen a Cheeky Pine episode where they actually drank.

• 23:59John Coogan?

  They did drink on this one.

• 24:00Jordi Hays?

  That was the main feedback from last year.

• 24:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 24:03Jordi Hays?

  Everyone's like, hey, great show, cool concept, great guests.

• 24:06John Coogan?

  Well, they were filming a lot of them like during the workday with people in San Francisco. So it was somebody who would like pop over, film an episode, and then you gotta go back to work. So you don't necessarily want to be chugging pints. But it is, it is funny. Yeah, it feels like Elon took down three pints or four pints or something. You did the math, right?

• 24:23Speaker 04

  So we'll talk about this later. There's some posts, but, you know, they seemed a bit smaller than normal pints, maybe. So is it really? But I counted, I counted three, like, full glasses.

• 24:34John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 24:35Jordi Hays?

  The other thing, so Sam was obviously quite bearish on space data centers in the near term. It is worth calling out that there was a rumor last year that they were kicking, he was kicking the tires on Rocket Lab. Remember that?

• 24:47John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 24:47Jordi Hays?

  So I think like, long term, I'm sure he'll, he'll want to have his own-

• 24:52John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 24:52Jordi Hays?

  -space company.

• 24:53John Coogan?

  But I, but I think he just, he would, he would rather- Like if there's a hype cycle, like he doesn't need it to be about him. He can, he can let this one pass by and focus on the other things that are going on with the business. Cause there, there's so much going on with the business. Like if you add too many narratives, it can actually confuse things. The, the, the X, XAI SpaceX combination is crazy, but the space data center thing actually does sort of streamline the narrative, in my opinion. What do you think, Tyler?

• 25:21Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, I, I think Elon Dorkesh asked a question about this, which is like, oh, it's so crazy that like SpaceX, they have this super ambitious mission, but they, they keep seeming to find these like good businesses on the way. Right. So you, so first it's like Starlink with, with Falcon and then with, with Starship. It's like, I mean, can you, do we really need that many Starlinks? But if you can get space data centers.

• 25:40John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 25:41Speaker 04

  If you're, if you're putting up terawatts of compute, then like, yeah, you need like massive, you know.

• 25:46Jordi Hays?

  OTP in the chat says dude just turned 21 and he can already eye a client. He's been studying the last week.

• 25:54John Coogan?

  Uh, what did Bubble Boy said? $660 billion of capex this year on AI data centers. To put a number like that in perspective, this is more than what we spent on the US interstate highway system. 630 billion, more than what we spent on the Apollo moon program, 257 billion, more than what we spent on the international space station, 150 billion. It's more money than Walmart's revenue last year, 650 billion. It's about 25% of all military spending globally. It's equivalent to buying 50 Gerald R. Ford aircraft carriers. It's the equivalent of spending $1.8 billion a day, $750 million an hour, or $1.2 million a minute. This year alone is without a doubt the biggest project in the history of capitalism.

• 26:38John Coogan?

  And we are spending it all, we're spending all of it in one year.

• 26:42Jordi Hays?

  He did, uh, Bubble Boy did, uh, do the inflation adjustment here. The Apollo program cost something like 25.

• 26:51John Coogan?

  Back then.

• 26:52Jordi Hays?

  Billion. Yeah, also putting it into perspective, France announced an initiative earlier this week. They want to lead in AI research. So through their France 2030 program, they have invested more than 30 million euros in this initiative. Macron says, "Science has found its home." And Sean Frank says, "France is investing 30 million in this new AI initiative." That's how much Google will spend in 90 minutes. No joke. Every 90 minutes, Google will spend 30 million on CapEx this year. One company.

• 27:30John Coogan?

  Wow, one company.

• 27:31Speaker 04

  They can hire Ilya for like, an hour.

• 27:34John Coogan?

  An hour. One hour consulting call.

• 27:36Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, he's got to get on Intro.

• 27:38John Coogan?

  Intro.

• 27:41Jordi Hays?

  Hit up Brad.

• 27:42John Coogan?

  Vibe.co, where D2C brands, B2B startups, and AI companies advertise on streaming TV. Pick channels, target audiences, and measure sales just like on Meta. Take him is breaking down the Nvidia news. The stock is up 6.22%. Nvidia shares barely moved in after hours trading last night.

• 27:58Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, this is what I said. I was like, "Amazon just announced that, hey, we're going to spend, you know, 200 million dollars."

• 28:04John Coogan?

  Yeah, what are they going to buy with those? I mean, they will buy Tranium and Inferential, but they're going to buy a lot of Nvidia. You know it. Take him said, "You all know," I was already insanely bullish on Nvidia's NVL 72 super cycle this year. These CapEx numbers from Google and Amazon blow away even my most optimistic expectations for Nvidia's main and consumer market. And we also saw from Greg Brockman that GB200 is off to the races. The Blackwell chips are now in full force over at OpenAI powering 5.3. There's a little bit of debate over whether that was involved in training or inference, but it doesn't really matter. Blackwell's here, and it's going to improve things. So, and that's probably good for chip designers.

• 28:49John Coogan?

  Which Nvidia is obviously one of. Let me tell you about Lambda. Lambda is the superintelligence cloud, building AI supercomputers for training and inference at scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands.

• 29:01Jordi Hays?

  Steven over at Lambda was the one who sent me that post from France originally.

• 29:08John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 29:09Jordi Hays?

  He was gonna get some...

• 29:12John Coogan?

  You were not kind. You were making fun of him. But it's a good post. Going all in on AI with thirty million dollars. It's really like the, it has the, uh, what's it called?

• 29:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, the one billion.

• 29:23John Coogan?

  One million dollars because you're not aware of inflation because you've been frozen for fifty years or something like that.

• 29:31Jordi Hays?

  Let's go over to the Wall Street Journal.

• 29:34John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 29:35Jordi Hays?

  Behind Disney's search for a lasting successor to Bob Iger.

• 29:38John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 29:38Jordi Hays?

  Company's succession committee reviewed information on over a hundred candidates before the race was narrowed to two.

• 29:44John Coogan?

  A hundred candidates.

• 29:45Jordi Hays?

  This seems crazy. I guess you gotta be thorough.

• 29:47John Coogan?

  If you were reviewed, you gotta, you gotta put it here. So, the trio, which is Bob Iger, Josh DiMaro, and Dana Walden. They were meeting in Disney's executive dining room. Trio sat in a private room with panoramic views of Disney's studio lot and surrounding San Francisco Valley, where Iger discussed scenarios the board of directors was considering. Could DiMaro, we gotta, is it DiAmaro or DiMaro? DiMiro? Doug DiMiro? Is he related to Doug DiMiro? DiAmaro, Chair of Disney's Experience Business, including Theme Parks and Consumer Products. Walden, co-chairman of the Entertainment Business, lead the company together. What about, what about with one in charge and the other as deputy?

• 30:31John Coogan?

  DiAmaro and Walden, who by that point were the finalists to succeed Iger, said they were open to all the scenarios. Disney's board of directors was scheduled to meet in the same building and hold its final vote on who the next CEO would be the following Thursday. People close to the company predicted DiAmaro would be given the top job with Walden elevated role to ensure she stayed. The only surprise, it turned out, was the timing. Keenly aware of the intense public anticipation, Disney's ten directors, including Iger, voted unanimously Monday to make DiMaro CEO and Walden President and Chief Creative Officer.

• 31:07John Coogan?

  We were ready to go and I didn't like sitting there with the news. Board Chairman James Gorman, who led the succession process, said in an interview.

• 31:15Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that was really fast.

• 31:16John Coogan?

  That was extremely fast.

• 31:17Jordi Hays?

  Rumor rumors hit, uh, hit the various outlets and then it was like confirmed immediately. That was smart.

• 31:25John Coogan?

  At an employee town hall, Di Amaro described the moment as surreal and said he was initially embarrassed by his reaction. I got a little choked up when they let me know because it's a big responsibility. It is a big responsibility. His ascension will, save for any unexpected snafus, mark the end of a decade-plus search for a lasting successor to Bob Iger that has been marked by delays, missteps, and reversals. Employees said they are happy to have the biggest question about the company's future finally resolved and anxious about what a former Parks leader running the company with a veteran television executive as his top deputy will mean for Disney's.

• 32:02Jordi Hays?

  Let's give it up for veteran television executives.

• 32:07John Coogan?

  So Gorman had previously run a leadership succession project at Morgan Stanley. He took over Disney's process in 2024 after joining the board. He said the succession committee reviewed information on more than 100 candidates and honed in on several outsiders, along with four Disney executives, Di Amaro, Walden, entertainment co-chairman Alan Bergman, and ESPN chief Jimmy Pitaro. Gorman said the board interviewed the candidates formally and in intimate lunches. They conducted 360 interviews with Disney executives, talking to subordinates and colleagues as well as bosses. By last summer, the race had narrowed to two candidates.

• 32:47John Coogan?

  Di Amaro and Walden traveled to Orlando in August to present their visions for Disney's future at a board meeting. The Wall Street Journal previously reported this. In ensuing months, they met with board members in a less formal setting. Both executives talked to Iger frequently about what it took to run a company like Disney, employees noticed. And gossip was rampant. Staffers speculated about whether Di Amaro's background in parks would hurt him, given that Bob Chapek had also run the company's theme park before his short-lived tenure as CEO.

• 33:17Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that'd be wild. Hey, we had a misstep with a Parks guy, no more Parks guys.

• 33:22John Coogan?

  Yeah. Disney's leaders wanted the succession process to be as clean as possible without runners leaving the company, given the Chapek fiasco. We wanted to get this right, said Gorman. As a result, a few were surprised that Walden was named president, a position no one has held at Disney in 20 years, with a recommended retention bonus worth 5.3 million. Walden's creative officer position is a new one for Disney. Some in the company's movies division are nervous about what Walden's rise will mean for their business, which she hasn't worked in before now, and which she hasn't worked in before, and now she oversees it. But there she is with the Founder's Award at the International Emmys New York, getting an award. A few company leaders-

• 34:07Jordi Hays?

  This is Founder's Podcast Award?

• 34:09John Coogan?

  I don't know what the Founder's Award at the International Emmys is for. Like, it's not for a founder-

• 34:16Jordi Hays?

  Never heard of it.

• 34:16John Coogan?

  ...because he's an executive. It's a prestigious honor bestowed by the International Academy of Television Arts and Sciences to individuals or organizations making a significant impact on global television.

• 34:27Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 34:28John Coogan?

  Founder's.

• 34:29Jordi Hays?

  Anyways, let's move on to-

• 34:32John Coogan?

  Dirty Soda?

• 34:33Jordi Hays?

  Dirty Soda. We gotta talk about the Utah mom-

• 34:35John Coogan?

  Have you heard of Dirty Soda before?

• 34:37Jordi Hays?

  ...who got the world poked on Dirty Soda.

• 34:38John Coogan?

  I'd never heard of Dirty Soda before. Have you heard of this?

• 34:40Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah. This is big in Utah.

• 34:42John Coogan?

  This is big in Utah?

• 34:43Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah.

• 34:43John Coogan?

  Have you been to Utah?

• 34:44Speaker 04

  Uh, no.

• 34:45John Coogan?

  How do you know that it's big in Utah, then?

• 34:48Speaker 04

  Uh, it's like-

• 34:48Jordi Hays?

  Exposed!

• 34:49Speaker 04

  My friends, like, sent it to me on Instagram. They're like, "Look at this."

• 34:51John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 34:52Jordi Hays?

  All right, what is Dirty Soda?

• 34:53John Coogan?

  You have friends who live in Utah?

• 34:54Speaker 04

  It's like soda, and they put, like, cream in it and stuff, right?

• 34:57John Coogan?

  Okay. Uh, well, we'll dig in. I think we'll let the Wall Street Journal get the facts straight. But first, I'll tell you about Phantom Cash. Fund your wallet without exchanges or middlemen, and spend with the Phantom Card.

• 35:12Jordi Hays?

  A mom with five children, ages 6 to 16, in St. George, Utah, Nicole Tanner didn't realize she was on to something with Dirty Soda. That's what the creator of the chain Swig calls spiking Coke, Mountain Dew, or Dr. Pepper with fruit purees and flavored cream, served in plastic cups stuffed with pebble ice, microplastic-

• 35:32John Coogan?

  Nightmare?

• 35:33Jordi Hays?

  Nightmare.

• 35:33John Coogan?

  Really? I didn't know pebble ice was at risk.

• 35:35Jordi Hays?

  No, no, no. I'm talking about, I'm just saying, plastic cups.

• 35:37John Coogan?

  Oh, the plastic cups.

• 35:38Jordi Hays?

  Uh, her business took off a few years ago when pop star Olivia Rodrigo was in Utah filming the TV series High School Musical, and posted an Instagram photo holding a cup from Swig. Now hashtag dirty soda is the hashtag. Big chains want in McDonald's recently tested Sprite with lemon vanilla syrup, dragon fruit, Taco Bell swirls. It's teal colored Baja Dream freezes with vanilla cream and calls it a Mountain Dew Baja Blast Dirty Freeze.

• 36:04John Coogan?

  We forgot to ask Sam Altman if he's gonna issue a Baja Blast.

• 36:08Jordi Hays?

  I know.

• 36:08John Coogan?

  Cause he did the code red.

• 36:10Jordi Hays?

  It's time for a Baja Blast.

• 36:12John Coogan?

  It's time to Baja Blast. He's back to the top of the charts.

• 36:14Jordi Hays?

  Maybe that's what the Super Bowl had. Kodex.

• 36:16John Coogan?

  Oh, that would be good.

• 36:17Jordi Hays?

  Baja Blast Kodex collab campaign for the builders.

• 36:22John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 36:23Jordi Hays?

  TGI Fridays last year started offering a line of dirty sodas and can be amped up with shots of Jack Daniels Hennessy.

• 36:28John Coogan?

  That sounds, when I hear dirty soda, I feel like it's spiked with alcohol, but

• 36:33Jordi Hays?

  Or Cody.

• 36:33John Coogan?

  Apparently just a.

• 36:36Jordi Hays?

  Dirty Sprite. That's like.

• 36:37John Coogan?

  Yeah. Oh, yeah. That's right. The future's on. Yeah, that's.

• 36:39Jordi Hays?

  And drive-in chain Sonic has encouraged customers to make it dirty by ordering creamer and mix-ins with their sodas.

• 36:45John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 36:45Jordi Hays?

  While the heart of dirty sodas may still be at Utah and the Mountain West states, Swig has expanded to around 140 locations across 16 states.

• 36:53John Coogan?

  That's fast.

• 36:53Jordi Hays?

  This is insane. To me, to me, this feels like a really tough business to be in long-term because if, if the product becomes popular.

• 37:01John Coogan?

  Everyone has it.

• 37:02Jordi Hays?

  Everyone has it immediately. You have no real IP.

• 37:04John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 37:05Jordi Hays?

  Right? Cause you're just using sodas off the shelf.

• 37:07John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 37:08Jordi Hays?

  Um, so yeah, I'd be interested to see what happens to these 140 locations, even though the product is a hit.

• 37:13John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 37:14Jordi Hays?

  Tanner's main investor, family investment office Larry H. Miller Co. brought in a professional chief executive who has taken other companies public.

• 37:21John Coogan?

  All right.

• 37:21Jordi Hays?

  And he is talking of an eventual, initial public offering for the chain, which had around a hundred million in sales last year. Tanner, I mean, these must be incredibly simple to run. It's literally a box. You have soda and creamer.

• 37:32John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 37:32Jordi Hays?

  So I could see even.

• 37:34John Coogan?

  They don't sell food or anything here? This is like such a simple.

• 37:38Jordi Hays?

  We're doing what Starbucks did for coffee, but for soda, said Swig CEO Alex Dunn. So Alex Dunn says, pull up here.

• 37:45John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 37:46Jordi Hays?

  6 a.m. On the way to the gym, grab a big soda.

• 37:49John Coogan?

  I feel like you'd need more caffeine if you really wanted to displace Starbucks. People will really just stop at a dedicated place just to get a tasty soda. That's a crazy.

• 37:58Jordi Hays?

  Gabe, Gabe is sharing a quote from future, dirty soda in a styrofoam. Spend a day to get my mind blocked.

• 38:05John Coogan?

  Oh, L. H. Miller was the owner of the Utah Jazz. Interesting. Tyler, did you have more context here?

• 38:11Speaker 04

  Well, I was just gonna say on the caffeine thing, isn't the whole point that it doesn't have, it's like not caffeinated, right? Cause you're Mormon.

• 38:16John Coogan?

  Oh, okay. So it's a Utah thing.

• 38:19Speaker 04

  I think so, yeah.

• 38:20John Coogan?

  Okay, okay.

• 38:21Speaker 04

  At least originally.

• 38:21John Coogan?

  Or there's like a little caffeine, but you can probably do caffeine-free Coca-Cola or something.

• 38:25Jordi Hays?

  I started, uh, I did something recently that, that, that felt, uh, it felt really wrong, but the result was good. I mixed a yerba with a Mexican Coke.

• 38:34John Coogan?

  Ooh, okay.

• 38:35Jordi Hays?

  And it was, it was fantastic.

• 38:37John Coogan?

  A mateina?

• 38:38Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 38:38John Coogan?

  And Mexican Coke?

• 38:39Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 38:40John Coogan?

  That's fun. Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet. State-of-the-art reasoning, next level vibe coding, deep multimodal understanding.

• 38:47Jordi Hays?

  Tanner grew up on an Idaho dairy farm, the fifth of eight children. She got her associate degree in office education. That is a sweet degree.

• 38:56John Coogan?

  Wow.

• 38:56Jordi Hays?

  We, who, who runs office education here?

• 39:00John Coogan?

  Office education? We need some.

• 39:01Jordi Hays?

  Maybe, maybe, maybe we do.

• 39:03John Coogan?

  Here's how you use Claude Code.

• 39:05Jordi Hays?

  And started working in marketing for a library system software company. Let's give it up for library system software company. I, I bet you that, I bet you this is a more durable business than the other sass out there. She got married and by 23 started a family. Tanner started working for Mary Kay, selling makeup and skincare products and eventually building a team of 18 consultants. Let's give it up for MLMs.

• 39:26John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 39:29John Coogan?

  I think they would, uh, dispute that, right?

• 39:32Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, anytime you.

• 39:33John Coogan?

  They don't like the pyramid scheme term, but I, I don't know, maybe I'll.

• 39:36Jordi Hays?

  Multi-level marketing, I think, is just a strategy, right? Uh, in 2007, the Tanners moved their five children to St. George from Colorado. She was a 38-year-old mother of five, craving caffeine and tired of watered-down fountain soda.

• 39:47John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 39:48Jordi Hays?

  When she decided to turn her cravings into a business in 2010.

• 39:52John Coogan?

  Oh, wait.

• 39:54John Coogan?

  So coffee wasn't a choice. Tanner is Mormon and adherents typically traditionally abstain from coffee, but you could have caffeine in.

• 40:03John Coogan?

  In soda? I didn't realize that. That seems like a loophole.

• 40:06Jordi Hays?

  This is, this is, I love this. Tanner and her husband used savings to avoid taking out a business loan to buy a 700 square foot commercial building in St. George with a big parking lot. It's like, people are like, oh, I moved to San Francisco and I had a mattress on the floor. I have so much conviction. Okay, buy a building for your untested soda company with all your savings. That's real conviction.

• 40:29John Coogan?

  Love her up, get the mortgage.

• 40:30Jordi Hays?

  Her idea was to serve super cold soda with a twist like lime fruit or purees. Tanner initially leased a fountain machine from Coca-Cola. When she asked PepsiCo for the same, Tanner said the company took a pass. Soda rivals typically push restaurant chains to stock their products exclusively. So Tanner bought two-liter bottles of Pepsi and Mountain Dew from grocery stores. I love seeing your face when you ask for a Diet Coke on a plane and they say, is Pepsi okay? And you just say, absolutely not. After about a month, Pepsi relented, she said. She started with limes, lemons, and six flavor shots. She recruited her eldest daughter and niece to work in the store. Her 15-year-old son held up signs outside advertising that job not going away.

• 41:13John Coogan?

  Signs spinning. I've been getting so many spy, signs spinning reels with the you broke my heart.

• 41:17Jordi Hays?

  That's just one.

• 41:19John Coogan?

  One guy, but I see all of his reels and it's just like him being, I don't have a job and then it's crazy.

• 41:25Jordi Hays?

  He can actually spin that into an interesting digital ad business because he could just do the signs.

• 41:31John Coogan?

  Whatever's on the sign you see. Because the videos. I honestly never see what's on the sign though because it's spinning so fast.

• 41:37Jordi Hays?

  No, I know, but use that as a lead in and then promote.

• 41:41John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's good.

• 41:43Jordi Hays?

  Tanner, in the beginning, priced her drinks at a dollar for any size. That's crazy. I didn't know you could get anything for a dollar in this country anymore. Helping draw students from nearby Utah Tech University. In 2013, a local news broadcast found customers waiting to get a mango puree, Mountain Dew, or Big Al soda.

• 42:01John Coogan?

  That's interesting. I saw the.

• 42:02Jordi Hays?

  I don't know if this is a Big Al soda or Big AI soda.

• 42:05John Coogan?

  So they said, they said a few years ago, Olivia Rodrigo promoted it and it went viral. I thought this business was only a few years old. I guess.

• 42:14Jordi Hays?

  No, it's an overnight success. It started in 2010.

• 42:16John Coogan?

  Overnight success. That's pretty remarkable. Yeah.

• 42:19Jordi Hays?

  After customers started referring to Swig's Dr. Pepper and cream combination as dirty soda.

• 42:25Jordi Hays?

  Tanner latched onto the phrase encouraging customers. They gotta, they gotta pay future royalty. I won't stand by that.

• 42:31John Coogan?

  They should get future as an influencer. That'd be good.

• 42:35Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, he's like, when I said dirty soda, I meant.

• 42:37John Coogan?

  Promethazine.

• 42:39Jordi Hays?

  By 2017, Swig had grown to more than a dozen stores. The staff was spread thin and Tanner realized she lacks, lacked the expertise to grow further. She and her husband separated in 2020. R I P and is no longer involved in Swig. And I hate when I'm just like, reading this incredible story of entrepreneurship and then, and then they kind of interrupt the, the flow there. In 2025, she married Greg Robinson and they continue to live in Utah. It was held together with some duct tape and hairpins, said Andrew Smith, a Utah-based investor who savory fund.

• 43:10John Coogan?

  Oh, they took a majority stake. Interesting.

• 43:13Jordi Hays?

  Very cool. In recent years, Swig has gotten a boost from the cast of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, a reality TV show chronicling a group of Utah-based TikTok influencers. We're at Swig, so I can tell you exactly what my Swig order is. It's sparkling water, sugar-free pineapple, sugar-free peach, sugar-free vanilla, raspberry puree with a fresh lime. That's crazy.

• 43:36John Coogan?

  So over the top.

• 43:37Jordi Hays?

  Anyways, what a, what a, what a cool story.

• 43:40John Coogan?

  Yeah. Tanner says we're in extreme high-growth mode right now. The company estimates it serves over 2,000 drinks at a single conference.

• 43:49Jordi Hays?

  The White House has posted biggest, period, bowl, period, run, period, ever, period, starting, period, now, period.

• 43:58John Coogan?

  Did they post this? Should you scroll down?

• 43:59Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. No. So, so they're sharing a fake screenshot.

• 44:03John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 44:03Jordi Hays?

  From Truth Social.

• 44:06Jordi Hays?

  Where Donald Trump says, let the gains begin.

• 44:11Jordi Hays?

  I mean, he really did call the, the bottom. At least a local bottom.

• 44:17John Coogan?

  Of veracity and truth?

• 44:20Jordi Hays?

  No, I'm just saying like if you bought Nvidia when he bought Nvidia when he when this fake post was

• 44:28John Coogan?

  Shared by the real account is is but is White House post is not even the real account, right? That's just a fake 14,000 follower account. Everything about this is fake. Everything about and then follow up. I highly recommend you follow White House grandpa. It's like, what are we doing here?

• 44:46Jordi Hays?

  Very strange.

• 44:47John Coogan?

  Absolutely. Well, do your own research and get on public.com investing for those who take it seriously. Not from fake news on a podcast, stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries and more with great customer service that isn't fake news.

• 45:02Jordi Hays?

  Goldman Sachs is tapping Anthropic's AI model to automate accounting and compliance roles. Embedded Anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time intensive, high volume back office work.

• 45:15John Coogan?

  It was one of my first, one of my first jobs.

• 45:17Jordi Hays?

  Bull market and forward deployed engineers for Anthropic.

• 45:21John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 45:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, like it will be funny if if if like true diffusion requires two decades of just millions of consultants working with businesses of all size to implement AI systems.

• 45:35John Coogan?

  Yeah, probably. I mean, the the task horizon, every time I see it's six hours. That's amazing. And you were making the comment of like, you know, how many times do you really sit there and and spend six hours working autonomously? But there's a different frame, which is like a consultant can come in with the with a goal and work pretty much autonomously for like months. And so there is a world where, you know, to to not have an a forward deployed engineer in the loop, you need the task horizon to be like years, basically.

• 46:04Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 46:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, building a company like takes your whole life.

• 46:06John Coogan?

  Exactly. Yeah. So you keep the doubling going, which I think puts us back to 2035.

• 46:13John Coogan?

  I think it puts us at like 2035. It's about a decade until you get to like the task horizon is a lifetime is like the average life expectancy of a human.

• 46:22Jordi Hays?

  Pull up this article from the Wall Street Journal.

• 46:24John Coogan?

  Okay, what are we looking at? Which one?

• 46:28Jordi Hays?

  Anthropic Aura Farm, the Journal this week, this is one of the most insane headlines. It's the week Anthropic tanked the market and pulled ahead of its rivals. Once a distant second or third in the AI race, the company is moving to the front with a focus on caution, coding and business clients.

• 46:45John Coogan?

  Well, they didn't fully Aura Farm because the Journal sort of takes a shot here. It says Anthropic once appeared as an also ran in the chaotic race for AI supremacy. This week, the sophistication of the startups products upended the stock market. A simple set of industry specific add-ons to its Claude product, including one that performed legal services, triggered a days long global stock sell off from software to legal services, financial data and real estate. Then Anthropic unveiled Super Bowl ads that taunt rival OpenAI. Last on Thursday, Anthropic unleashed its most advanced model yet capable of synthesizing data and analysis, running teams of coding assistants and functions akin to product management.

• 47:29John Coogan?

  Shares of software companies, including Salesforce, Intuit and others, fell again Thursday, although less precipitously than earlier in the week. The viral moment for Anthropic's models is, quote, "the most important thing happening in AI since ChatGPT's launch," said Dean Ball, a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation. Who I know Ball.

• 47:53Jordi Hays?

  You know him.

• 47:54John Coogan?

  Everyone knows Ball on this show, who writes an artificial intelligence newsletter. Quote, "It's infinitely interesting. Industry prognosticators and AI evangelists have spent months foretelling the toll Anthropic and others and other sophisticated AI tools would take on software as a service companies that were darlings of the previous internet era. Tools made by companies such as Workday, Monday.com and Adobe have become the digital backbone for American corporations. Anthropic's tools, however, which include agents that can act autonomously to carry out increasingly complex user requests for hours, have have offered a preview of the threat sophisticated AI models pose to entire companies.

• 48:37John Coogan?

  It's a good article. I mean, obviously, we'll see how fast the diffusion happens. Some of these systems have things that you cannot simply vibe code. We'll talk to Max Levchin about is it possible to vibe code a financial software product?

• 48:51Jordi Hays?

  A global payments network?

• 48:52John Coogan?

  A global payments network. Can you vibe code a bank charter or money transfer license? And I think more and more companies will emerge and there might be a divergence between companies that have moats that are resistant to software-based disruption, but then maybe they should trade at a different multiple. So there's sort of a reevaluation of the market broadly.

• 49:14Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, you also can, with the payment stuff, again, I'm super excited for us to talk with Max, especially on this week when PayPal is obviously in the news. But you can imagine a world where it does become possible to technically vibe code a global payments network. But various regulators just say like, hey, we're not like, we're going to start having requirements. You need to be at least have 100 people on your team, right? Things like that.

• 49:40John Coogan?

  That's interesting.

• 49:41Jordi Hays?

  You know, basically, if you're getting inundated with a bunch of requests of somebody that's like, hey, I started this company a week ago and now I want to be able to process payments state by state globally, etc. People are just going to be like, hey, this is probably not responsible.

• 49:56John Coogan?

  Yeah. Let me tell you about Gusto, the unified platform for payroll benefits. They are built to evolve with modern small and medium-sized businesses. I want to vibe code a payments platform where when it's payday, a humanoid robot comes around and just does a money spread in your face. And just says, here's your cash. That's the future. You don't need to, none of this money transmitting or license, none of these recordings.

• 50:19Jordi Hays?

  Money spread.

• 50:19John Coogan?

  Yeah. Oh, Tyler's got the money spread going.

• 50:21Jordi Hays?

  Money spread.

• 50:22John Coogan?

  You're actually quite amateurish at your money spreads. From what I've seen on Instagram, you could, there are levels and you are on level one. You need to learn all the different ones. The money counter spread, that's not bad. That's not bad.

• 50:35Jordi Hays?

  For anyone watching.

• 50:36John Coogan?

  But I want to see it, I want to see it go all the way down your arm in an S. Okay.

• 50:40Jordi Hays?

  Do not break, exposed.

• 50:43John Coogan?

  Exposed, first time money spread.

• 50:45Jordi Hays?

  Future would be mocking you.

• 50:46John Coogan?

  Rookie, money spread rookie.

• 50:49Jordi Hays?

  Claims to love, claims to know all about dirty soda, never been to Utah.

• 50:55John Coogan?

  Never been to Utah.

• 50:56Jordi Hays?

  Claims to be able to money spread, can't do a money spread.

• 50:58John Coogan?

  Can't do a money spread.

• 50:59Jordi Hays?

  Future, future is laughing at you.

• 51:02Speaker 04

  Do you have like 20 bucks on you?

• 51:05Jordi Hays?

  Actually do.

• 51:05John Coogan?

  Oh, he got you. He was supposed to say, that's what I thought.

• 51:09Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that's what I thought.

• 51:10John Coogan?

  That's what I thought.

• 51:12Jordi Hays?

  He can't even hold his mic down. He can't hold the mic button.

• 51:17John Coogan?

  Turbo puffer, serverless vector and full text search built from first principles and object storage, fast, ten X cheaper and extremely scalable.

• 51:24John Coogan?

  Take him at a funny take, he said, y'all are clowns, clowns. The Anthropic legal plugin uses software, it doesn't replace it. In fact, the cowork legal plugin uses Microsoft 365, Jira, Slack and Box software to accomplish its tasks. No one at Anthropic has replicated any of these applications with ones coded by the company's Claude Code agent.

• 51:47John Coogan?

  It is this X that you can put up there.

• 51:48Jordi Hays?

  New feature.

• 51:49John Coogan?

  Just X it out.

• 51:50Jordi Hays?

  New feature.

• 51:51John Coogan?

  Yeah. Yes, yes, there are, there are plenty of situations where, where the token cost of regenerating the software is much lower than just using the software. And so people will, will use the software. Jim Kramer said Anthropic's power is so daunting that all they have to do is say they are going into cybersecurity and that's the end of the group. I don't want to be against them, but they are not the all powerful firm that I think they are. Well, we'll talk to Doug Olafland about exactly how powerful Anthropic is and whether he has, whether he has vibe coded everything in his life, or if he is still using an operating system at this point, who knows?

• 52:26John Coogan?

  Let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds, online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces and now in AI agents.

• 52:35Jordi Hays?

  Joe Weisenthal shared yesterday, silver down 19%. Anthropic must have launched a silver extension.

• 52:42John Coogan?

  Yes. It's just chaos in the markets. It's just absolute chaos everywhere.

• 52:46Jordi Hays?

  One of the, one of the most chaotic weeks of my, my adult life.

• 52:52John Coogan?

  Yeah, but it's been, I mean, lots of green shoots, lots of interesting projects, lots of interesting applications and progress all over the place. Derek Thompson said, for me, the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last three weeks and the odds that we are actually quite underbuilt for the necessary levels of inference usage went up significantly in that period.

• 53:13Jordi Hays?

  Derek Thompson is AGI pilled.

• 53:15John Coogan?

  I think AI is going to become the home screen of a ludicrously high percentage of white collar workers in the next two years and parallel agents will be deployed in the battlefield of knowledge work at downright Soviet levels.

• 53:28John Coogan?

  And Kevin Roos over at the New York Times, host of the Hard Fork Podcast, says, "This is why everyone was freaking out about Claude Code over win a break. Once you see an agent autonomously doing stuff for you, it's so instantly clear that all computer-based work will be done this way. This is why my serious AI policy proposal is to sit every member of Congress down in a room with laptops for 30 minutes and have them all build websites."

• 53:53Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 53:54John Coogan?

  Get them vibe coding.

• 53:54Jordi Hays?

  So we were joking about this yesterday with Shulto. Like, we maybe need more long weekends for AI adoption, but I wouldn't be surprised for a big company to, like, actually do something like this, which is like, hey, we're gonna have, like, we're gonna have the next Thursday, Friday off.

• 54:11John Coogan?

  Hackathon.

• 54:12Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, basically.

• 54:13John Coogan?

  Congressional hackathon.

• 54:14Jordi Hays?

  I mean, Congress is a whole other thing.

• 54:17John Coogan?

  You gotta go to Congress, sit all the Congress people down, and get them vibe coding. What would they build? I feel like they don't use a lot of software, so there's not that much to build. Like, they're so abstracted away from it. It's all lunches and phone calls and dinners and meetings. Like, there's not that much that actually... This is the thing with, like, Open Claw. There's some people asking, like, what are you actually using it for? And people are realizing, like, a lot of my day is not interacting with software.

• 54:46Jordi Hays?

  You know the thing that I wish I could automate?

• 54:48John Coogan?

  What?

• 54:49Jordi Hays?

  My mail at home.

• 54:50John Coogan?

  Okay, you can do that. Have you seen Earth-class mail? There are a few of these virtual mailboxes.

• 54:57Jordi Hays?

  It sends it.

• 54:58John Coogan?

  So basically, you forget your home address. You don't share it anywhere on the internet. You never put it anywhere. You only use this other address. Mine was, like, 830 Market Street in San Francisco. All of the mail would go there. If it's addressed to me, it gets opened by a robot scanned, and then you have a web dashboard, but also it just goes to your email. And then you can actually say...

• 55:20Jordi Hays?

  So they've been AGI-pilled for decades.

• 55:21John Coogan?

  Decades. No, it was really important when you set up a business, you use a fake address or one of these virtual mailboxes, and then you can actually click a button, "Send this to me physically", if it's like a magazine or a gift or something. You can say... Like keep this, or you can say like shred it, and then you have a virtual, you know, representation of it forever, and you could run an agent over it. So maybe that's the next thing you pick up is a virtual mailbox. That would be good.

• 55:49Jordi Hays?

  How does that work? There are certain situations where you need your ID to match, like your utility bill.

• 55:55John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 55:55Jordi Hays?

  So you just still, I guess you just use, still use your home address for utilities, but use everything else.

• 56:01John Coogan?

  Or passport. Like, there's usually other ways to, to prove residency besides the bills. But also, I don't know if you can actually get the utility bill to not go where the utilities are.

• 56:12Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

• 56:13John Coogan?

  But hopefully the utilities don't leak it. I'm talking about like the broad, like, you know, your, your address gets on the internet and then it's just like spam and like credit card offers and stuff like that.

• 56:21Jordi Hays?

  I'm just saying I never want to open up a physical piece of mail again. I want it to come someplace, have an AI agent, like, you know, you get a, you go on a toll road, just pays it automatically.

• 56:33John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 56:34Jordi Hays?

  Right, stuff like that.

• 56:35John Coogan?

  Optimus opens it for you, takes a picture.

• 56:38Jordi Hays?

  Does a money spread.

• 56:39John Coogan?

  Does a money spread, walks to the, walks to the post office, mails the next letter, mails the check. This is the future. Powered by MongoDB. Choose a database built for flexibility and scale. Built with best-in-class embedding models and re-rankers. MongoDB has what you need to build what's next.

• 56:55Jordi Hays?

  It does. Michelangelo drawing just sold for 27.2 million. Let's hit the gong for that. Over 13 times it's asking price.

• 57:04John Coogan?

  We're bringing down the gong.

• 57:05Jordi Hays?

  The Renaissance master earned a record sum with the sketch of a foot.

• 57:09John Coogan?

  Let's bring down the gong.

• 57:10Jordi Hays?

  Chappell.

• 57:11John Coogan?

  Let's hit the gong for the Michelangelo painting.

• 57:14Jordi Hays?

  Give it a clean hit. Team is, let's give it up for the team for really dialing in the special effects.

• 57:29John Coogan?

  Congrats to Michelangelo. Overnight success.

• 57:32Jordi Hays?

  Truly.

• 57:33John Coogan?

  Michelangelo. What do you think, Tyler? Overvalued, undervalued? 27.2 million.

• 57:38Speaker 04

  I think I'm gonna have to go with Tyler Cowen. I'm pretty sure on, on March of Revolution, I saw this earlier this week, he said, way overvalued.

• 57:45John Coogan?

  Way overvalued.

• 57:46Jordi Hays?

  Whoa, what was, what was the? What was the thesis?

• 57:51Speaker 04

  I mean, it's not a

• 57:53John Coogan?

  I'll give you the bare thesis. Look at the picture.

• 57:55Speaker 04

  It's just like a, yeah. It's a foot. It's not even like a painting. It's just like a sketch.

• 57:59John Coogan?

  I think we know what's going on. There's people that are into this stuff. I'm not going to judge, but it's not me.

• 58:05Jordi Hays?

  Not for me.

• 58:06John Coogan?

  I newly rediscovered Michelangelo drawing of a foot sold for 27.2 million at Christie's on Thursday. A record for any work created by the Renaissance master in a sale likely to kick the art market into high gear. Previously unknown red chalk sketch is one of only a handful of Michelangelo's surviving studies still in, still left in private hands. My, my AI diffusion model could do this. That's the new phrase. And my kid couldn't do this, but my AI diffusion model certainly could. This is not that impressive. Not a 27, maybe a five. Give me a break.

• 58:42John Coogan?

  The five inch drawing depicts the right foot of the Libyan Sybil, a blonde prophetess from wearing a creamsicle gown painted onto the chapel ceiling of the eastern end.

• 58:53Jordi Hays?

  Let's get the feet off of the screen. Moving on, back to business. Sitrini says in response to Opus 46, I have not shied away from buying scary dips. Neither has Ben on our team. Producer Ben always buys the dip. Buying tech in 2022 is scary.

• 59:12John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 59:13Jordi Hays?

  As we, it's, it's really good that buy the dip is like, so like

• 59:18John Coogan?

  It's the backbone of the American economy.

• 59:20Jordi Hays?

  The backbone because freak out and sell everything would really be bad for our capital market.

• 59:25John Coogan?

  Yes, yes, yes. Okay, so COVID.

• 59:28Jordi Hays?

  Buying tech in 2022 is scary as were banks after SVB. I bought plenty of stocks when COVID seemed like potentially the end of the world. But this doesn't really seem like an overreaction in software. If anything, it's delayed. It's a rational response that isn't even trying to front run the capability improvement. The capability is here. I respect anyone who is actually smart enough to know who survives and thrives. I just don't think I can foresee that far ahead right now.

• 59:51John Coogan?

  And Gary Basin has a devil's advocate. I think the bottleneck will still be knowing the details of what to build, which depend on what your customers need, not even necessarily what they say they want. I use these tools daily to close to close to their full power, and they're amazing, but the flashy demos are all examples of extremely precisely specified tasks in example-rich domains. Build a compiler, build a web browser, etc. These have very specific rules on what success entails. And I've seen like the Gastown, one of the big demo projects was like replatforming some open source software to Rust. And it's like, that's pretty verifiable from start to finish. If you're looking at like, build a new social network. It's like, okay, how do you get distribution? Distribution is still really,

• 1:00:36John Coogan?

  really important. Like, you can vibe code stuff, but driving traffic is harder than ever. What do you think, Tyler?

• 1:00:41Speaker 04

  I just need to clear something. So before I said Teller Cannel was talking about

• 1:00:45John Coogan?

  Michelangelo?

• 1:00:46Speaker 04

  Yeah, Michelangelo. That was incorrect. He was actually talking about a Rembrandt.

• 1:00:49John Coogan?

  Oh.

• 1:00:50Speaker 04

  Also a sketch.

• 1:00:51John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:00:52Speaker 04

  It was 20 million.

• 1:00:53John Coogan?

  20 million. Okay, okay. Thank you for the, thank you for the fact check. Really quickly. Restream. One livestream, 30-plus destinations. If you want to multi-stream, go to restream.com. Wall Street Logic right now, says Chris Camillo. Punish big tech for wasting capex on AI. Punish SaaS because AI will replace them. And punish GPU manufacturers for selling the chips that power the waste. Sell everything. Sell your dollars. Remember to lock up your capital in late-stage private companies at the tops, says Day6Z that I think has been deleted. I can't see it, but I can see the screen.

• 1:01:25Jordi Hays?

  Really good post, so.

• 1:01:26John Coogan?

  Anyway. The fear greed index is at 5 out of 100. Extreme fear. Extreme fear.

• 1:01:33Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I mean, good timing.

• 1:01:34John Coogan?

  Freak out and sell everything. This is Lindy.

• 1:01:38Jordi Hays?

  I mean, he posted this last night.

• 1:01:40John Coogan?

  Yeah. And then 4,000.

• 1:01:42Jordi Hays?

  Got a rally.

• 1:01:43John Coogan?

  I think, I think this might have turned the tide. This might have turned it.

• 1:01:45Jordi Hays?

  He did it.

• 1:01:46John Coogan?

  Anyway. Cisco, critical infrastructure for the AI era unlocks seamless and real-time experiences and new value with Cisco.

• 1:01:53Jordi Hays?

  Toma Bravo, managing partner Holden Spat says, "I just finished a week of board meetings with several of our portfolio companies and their strong results in growth and profitability seem to be, in my view, another piece of evidence against the overwrought headlines that AI is eating software. Anaplan, Bottomline, Coupa, Dayforce, and Jepson for Flight are navigating the AI transition quite well with Q4 bookings, growth of 22% on average, and high margins."

• 1:02:21John Coogan?

  Let's go.

• 1:02:22Jordi Hays?

  These are large companies operating at billion-dollar revenue scale, not small startups, and the growth numbers look to be accelerating, not decelerating. That kind of growth doesn't square with the notion that enterprise customers are cutting software spend so they have more money for new AI applications. We don't view our portfolios companies as being caught in an either-or zero-sum competition like that. They're building and integrating AI functionality into their products, and customers are voting with their dollars. Systems of (laughing) transitioning.

• 1:02:52John Coogan?

  The voice.

• 1:02:54Jordi Hays?

  "Systems of record with powerful AI and agent capabilities built to enterprise requirements and workflows have shown themselves to be quite capable of profitable growth. And I believe the value of profitable growth will endure in the face of technological change."

• 1:03:08John Coogan?

  Let's go.

• 1:03:09Jordi Hays?

  Not biased at all, but I think this is what we want to see, right?

• 1:03:14John Coogan?

  Six months ago, Google was considered disrupted. Now it's accelerating today. SaaS is considered disruptive. Now SaaS is accelerating. Let's see. Certainly not time to take your foot off the gas if you're building a SaaS company. You've got to figure out how to survive, how to thrive in the age of AI. Can't be asleep at the wheel. You've got to be building. You've got to be innovating. You've got to know your value. You've got to know what really makes your company valuable.

• 1:03:41Jordi Hays?

  Tom Dale says, "I don't know why this week became the tipping point, but nearly every software engineer I've talked to is experiencing some degree of mental health crisis." I saw another post in the same vein from somebody saying, "Well, at least we're getting it over with before everyone else," right? Software engineers might be prepared for a new reality just because they're probably closer to the beginning of the wave.

• 1:04:06John Coogan?

  Justine Moore has the other side of it. She says, I love how everyone is saying SaaS is dead, like you're going to get the Fortune 500 to ditch Salesforce for a CRM vibe coded by a 13-year-old. And Matt Levine says, what's kind of funny is that people on this website have internalized, quote, "You hire McKinsey for air cover and a throat to choke if things go down, go wrong." But they haven't internalized, "You hire Salesforce, Workday, and Atlassian for very similar, albeit not identical, reasons." And there's some disagreement. Montag says, "That's not even remotely true." And Matt Levine says, "Wrong." This is the other Matt Levine, by the way. This is not the Bloomberg writer. This is a software guy with some finance

• 1:04:47John Coogan?

  thrown in. He's been at A16Z and JP Morgan. Let me tell you about console.com. Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of IT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets.

• 1:05:00Jordi Hays?

  That is right. Good Alexander says, "Just to be clear, people are shorting the economy of bits, just as software EBITDA margins are about to run to 70% and rotating into the economy of atoms into mass unemployment."

• 1:05:12John Coogan?

  Rotating into the economy of atoms into mass unemployment?

• 1:05:15Jordi Hays?

  I'm saying, like, if you're buying Disney right now, saying, like, okay, they have the Parks business, and they have IP, it's not as immune to AI disruption, but then if a bunch of people are unemployed...

• 1:05:26John Coogan?

  They're not going to go to Disney, in theory.

• 1:05:27Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, theoretically. Theoretically.

• 1:05:30John Coogan?

  They might go more. Who knows? The fact that crypto and silver are getting clobbered at the same time as SaaS stocks makes me think that the AI disruption story is a little bit too pat of an explanation for what's going on. There might be something else going on in the global economy.

• 1:05:44Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, this is why giving Anthropic full credit for the correction in the Journal is kind of insane.

• 1:05:50John Coogan?

  It really amps up the aura and the power.

• 1:05:52Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:05:53John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:05:54Jordi Hays?

  No, I mean, it's great for Anthropic.

• 1:05:55John Coogan?

  And people are running the numbers on, like, okay, so, you know, yeah, the valuation of Anthropic's probably doubled, an extra $300 billion, but we're seeing, like, a trillion-dollar sell-off. It's like, is that really the exchange rate that we're talking about here? We will see. Jensen is pushing back on the AI will kill all software narrative.

• 1:06:11Jordi Hays?

  Let's play the video.

• 1:06:12John Coogan?

  Just like he pushed back last year on the DeepSeek panic. Let's play this video of Jensen.

• 1:06:17Speaker 05

  But what software is? Software is a tool.

• 1:06:22Speaker 05

  There's this notion that the tool in the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI.

• 1:06:31Speaker 05

  You could tell because there's a whole bunch of software companies whose stock prices are under a lot of pressure. Because somehow AI is going to replace them. It is the most illogical thing in the world and time will prove itself. Let's just give it, let's give ourselves the ultimate thought experiment. Suppose we are the ultimate AI. Artificial general robotics. The ultimate AI. The physical version of us. You could, of course, solve any problem because, you know, you're humanoid. You could do things. If you were a human or robot, would you use a screwdriver or invent a new screwdriver? I would just use one.

• 1:07:15Speaker 05

  Would you use a hammer or invent a new hammer? Would you use a chainsaw or invent a new chainsaw? It just don't, first of all, ideally, they don't use it at all.

• 1:07:26John Coogan?

  A lot of disagreement in the timeline.

• 1:07:28Speaker 05

  But do you understand what I'm saying? If you were a human or robot, artificial general robotics, would you use tools or reinvent tools?

• 1:07:39Speaker 05

  The answer, obviously, is to use tools. And so now do the digital version of that. If you were a artificial general intelligence, would you use the tools like ServiceNow and SAP and Cadence and Synopsys? Or would you reinvent a calculator? Of course, you would just use a calculator.

• 1:08:02John Coogan?

  Okay, Tyler.

• 1:08:03Speaker 04

  Okay, I'd like completely disagree. So like if you're, yeah, if you're a robot, you'll use the calculator, right? Like you'll just build the calculator if it costs you a lot of money to use the calculator.

• 1:08:13John Coogan?

  Yes, yes, yes.

• 1:08:14Speaker 04

  So like, I think, like, you know, digital. Damn it. That like agents will like use Salesforce, right? But if Salesforce becomes like very expensive, if it's already fairly expensive, it's at some point it becomes cheaper to just build it themselves and then you run.

• 1:08:28John Coogan?

  Yes, yes.

• 1:08:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, especially when they're like, I can work the equivalent of 2,000 lifetimes today.

• 1:08:36John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:36Speaker 04

  Yeah, like obviously there's use for tools, right?

• 1:08:39John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:39Speaker 04

  OpenAI doesn't, or GPT like will write out Python script to to run some like big math problem, right?

• 1:08:46John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:08:46Speaker 04

  It's not gonna like use tokens to.

• 1:08:48John Coogan?

  Yes, yes, yes, yes. At some point, if if a single prompt can say like, build me a clone of this software and replatform me and onboard all my customers and employees to this, to the new vibe coded version of software and maintain it for free. Yeah, you have a problem. But as long as the cost to re-implement the software and replatform and transition over.

• 1:09:10Jordi Hays?

  John, John Palmer in the X chat and Deepak in the YouTube chat say, would you watch TBP on a reinvent? Would you invent a new podcast or listen to a podcast?

• 1:09:24John Coogan?

  Caner in the chat was talking about trains, the indomitable will of trains or the unstoppable force of trains. Just being extremely bullish on trains. I don't know, just trains. It was just like.

• 1:09:36Jordi Hays?

  Very, very random train, train anecdote.

• 1:09:39John Coogan?

  Yeah, I just, I just like that there, there's like a hype train for trains in the chat.

• 1:09:45John Coogan?

  Schmoesby says you met me at a rather illiquid period of my life. It's rough out there.

• 1:09:51Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I mean, going back, going back to Jensen, like,

• 1:09:56Jordi Hays?

  it's in Jensen's interest for the economy, for the markets not to collapse, even if he doesn't necessarily believe this, even if Tyler's take is right.

• 1:10:04John Coogan?

  Yeah, it's all, it's all a matter of timelines, I think.

• 1:10:08Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:08John Coogan?

  Like, the, the models are expensive to actually go and re-implement something very, very large and, and replatform when, when the current thing is working. Uh, did you see this screenshot of, of some mapping software suggesting you could go straight or you could go in a loop?

• 1:10:26Jordi Hays?

  This, this is a car guy's software.

• 1:10:28John Coogan?

  It is?

• 1:10:29Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 1:10:30John Coogan?

  Who, who's car guy's software?

• 1:10:31Jordi Hays?

  Like, this map is, is probably.

• 1:10:33John Coogan?

  Oh, yes, yes.

• 1:10:35Jordi Hays?

  Somebody who just appreciates a nice drive.

• 1:10:36John Coogan?

  I think this is actually Google Maps, but basically it's like you could go in a straight line or you could take a right and go in a massive loop and it's eight minutes slower. And it's like, would you like to go the slower route? But yeah, if you want to do a, if you want to do a fa- a hot lap, like, go for it. I guess that's a good, I guess it's a good take.

• 1:10:50Jordi Hays?

  Uh, we gotta, we gotta actually pull out the post from Amtrak. Amtrak hired a poster.

• 1:10:57John Coogan?

  What'd they do? Oh, this is where the train.

• 1:10:59Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:11:00John Coogan?

  Okay, yeah, sorry.

• 1:11:01Jordi Hays?

  Uh, this was prob- you know, one of the, one of the posts of the week. Amtrak says the unbridled greatness of trains will endure for a million years.

• 1:11:10John Coogan?

  Yes, that's, yes, yes, yes, this is what he was quoting. I thought it was so funny. The unbridled greatness of trains will endure for a million years. How many likes does that have? That's a banger. Four thousand. Four thousand? Eighty-four. Fifty-four thousand. That's great. Uh, let's go over to the Guinness tally. Tyler has it. He counted it up. He, he sat down, he studied the Dorkesh Patel cheeky pint crossover episode with Elon Musk, and he counted three pints for Elon, four pints for John, and three quarters of a pint for Dorkesh, but there's a suspicious refill.

• 1:11:47Speaker 04

  Yeah, so, I mean, it's a bit hard to, to really tell because, uh, if you, so if you're tracking Dorkesh's, you know, volume, right, throughout the episode, it kind of goes down and he's at maybe like, uh, you know, eighty percent full.

• 1:12:00John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:12:01Speaker 04

  And then it goes back up.

• 1:12:02John Coogan?

  That seems like a refill.

• 1:12:03Speaker 04

  But it's like a direct, so, so it's after a, um, it, it, there's like an ad read and then it goes back up.

• 1:12:08John Coogan?

  Oh.

• 1:12:09Speaker 04

  So the question is like, during the, you know, whatever happened during the ad read, right? Did he just like slam it?

• 1:12:15John Coogan?

  True.

• 1:12:16Speaker 04

  And then he filled back up all the way?

• 1:12:17John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 1:12:18Speaker 04

  Or is it just kind of a, you know, partial fill?

• 1:12:19John Coogan?

  I think you gotta give him one point seven five.

• 1:12:21Jordi Hays?

  Okay, can we, can we pull up the, the screenshot?

• 1:12:23John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:12:25Jordi Hays?

  Because the other debate, the other debate was just around the actual size of the pints.

• 1:12:32John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:12:32Jordi Hays?

  Is there some of them?

• 1:12:33John Coogan?

  They look like full size, full pint glasses.

• 1:12:35Jordi Hays?

  So, so, yeah.

• 1:12:36John Coogan?

  Those look like full sized pint glasses.

• 1:12:38Jordi Hays?

  Another, another photo of Elon holding the pint?

• 1:12:41John Coogan?

  Yes, three down.

• 1:12:43Jordi Hays?

  You gotta pull that, pull that up Tyler.

• 1:12:45John Coogan?

  Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no, it's here.

• 1:12:47Jordi Hays?

  This is really important. So yeah, you see this and it's like, okay. Looks pretty small in his hand.

• 1:12:52John Coogan?

  A little small. And then, and then let's click over to Timothy Chalamet. Timothy Chalamet, I mean, he's a smaller person, but it looks the same size to me. I think these are fair pint glasses. I think these are accurate. I'm not, I'm not seeing anything that's, that's, that's.

• 1:13:09Jordi Hays?

  So Timothy Chalamet is 5'10", Elon is 6'2". So slight height difference, but I mean, I don't, I feel like Elon is really mauling that.

• 1:13:19John Coogan?

  Maybe.

• 1:13:20Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I think, I think they're just potentially wider.

• 1:13:22John Coogan?

  I think they have different.

• 1:13:23Jordi Hays?

  And this is the kind of hard hitting analysis that you can really only get on this show. No other, no other technology media is really breaking down.

• 1:13:32John Coogan?

  I'm going, I'm going normal sized pints on this, but it is, it is, it is an interesting, like optical illusion.

• 1:13:38Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, this one looks incredibly.

• 1:13:39John Coogan?

  It's a little bit of an optical illusion. It's close, it's close. I mean, either way.

• 1:13:45Jordi Hays?

  I know, but we don't know.

• 1:13:46John Coogan?

  Even if it's a half pint, John drank four, so that's two full pints. If, even if it's a half pint, you know? I, I think, I think, I think these are full pint glasses. I'm going full pint.

• 1:13:59Jordi Hays?

  Okay. You know who else is going full pint, John?

• 1:14:02John Coogan?

  Who?

• 1:14:03Jordi Hays?

  The founder of Crypto.com.

• 1:14:04John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 1:14:05Jordi Hays?

  Who just bought AI.com for 70 million.

• 1:14:08John Coogan?

  Let's go.

• 1:14:09Jordi Hays?

  Uh, big, big, big.

• 1:14:16Jordi Hays?

  He is running an ad for AI.com. We don't know what AI.com is yet, but I'm assuming you're going to be able to get some artificial intelligence there, much like you can get crypto.

• 1:14:27John Coogan?

  It's a response. Haven't been people saying, if you're in crypto, pivot to AI. Took it literally.

• 1:14:32Jordi Hays?

  Uh, I'll read through this. Chris, founder, says, plans to launch new site with a Super Bowl ad this weekend. The founder of trading site Crypto.com just bought AI for 70 million. He actually bought it last. Last year in April, highest price ever disclosed for a domain sale to launch a new entrant into the AI race. There's, the site will offer a personal AI agent that consumers can use to send messages, use apps, and trade stocks. That's very, very American. Send message, send memes, order DoorDash, and trade stocks with your new AI agent. Last year, an opportunity came up for me to acquire this domain, and I thought, if you take a long-term view, 10 to 20 years, that AI is going to be one of the greatest

• 1:15:16Jordi Hays?

  technological waves of our lifetime, and so it would be a good investment.

• 1:15:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:21Jordi Hays?

  Mars select did not comment on the purchase price, which was confirmed by the deal's broker, Larry Fisher of GetYourDomain.com. Huge win for Larry.

• 1:15:31John Coogan?

  Larry, shout out to domain brokers.

• 1:15:33Jordi Hays?

  With assets like AI.com, there are no substitutes, said Fisher. When one becomes available, the opportunity may never present itself again. Of course, AI.com pitched itself, was pitching itself aggressively to all of the different labs. Everyone was like, you know, we, Anthropic's like, well, we may not have @anthropic on X, but we do have anthropic.com. We do have Claude.com.

• 1:15:56John Coogan?

  Who owns AI.ai? That's a good domain. Because Claude owns, or Anthropic owns Claude.com, but they also own Claude.ai, and they reroute Claude.com to Claude.ai, which is normally the opposite of the flow that you'd go. You'd start with the .ai or the other TLD, and then you would, as soon as you get the .com, you'd reroute everything to .com. Anthropic's so AI-pilled that they're using the .ai as their main domain, they're rerouting their .com to it.

• 1:16:25Jordi Hays?

  Or maybe they're Anguilla-pilled?

• 1:16:26John Coogan?

  Oh, yes.

• 1:16:27Jordi Hays?

  Maybe they, maybe they just like supporting Anguilla. Tyler, is using AI.com to launch a personal AI agent, is it your Gen Z, is this chugi?

• 1:16:41Speaker 04

  Wait, what is chugi again? I don't know.

• 1:16:42Jordi Hays?

  Chugi is like Gen Z slang.

• 1:16:44Speaker 04

  I think it's like millennial slang.

• 1:16:45Jordi Hays?

  Really?

• 1:16:47Speaker 04

  I don't know.

• 1:16:47John Coogan?

  It feels a little chubai to me. I'll, I'll, I'll say that. I know enough about that. It, it feels like, like chubai, it's chopped, it's Dubai. Dubai would want like the name of the thing and, but it's chopped.

• 1:17:00Jordi Hays?

  Chugi is a slang term often used by Gen Z to describe someone or something that is uncool, outdated, or trying too hard to be trendy.

• 1:17:07John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:17:08Jordi Hays?

  Typically referring to millennial, millennial trends from the 2010s.

• 1:17:12John Coogan?

  So it's a dig at millennials from the perspective of zoomers.

• 1:17:15Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. It describes a post-basic aesthetic that is slightly cringe-worthy, such as live, laugh, love signs, skinny jeans, or side parts.

• 1:17:23John Coogan?

  Okay, interesting. Vanta, automated compliance and security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. Let's go over the mansion section. There's some good stuff today.

• 1:17:35Jordi Hays?

  Hit me.

• 1:17:36John Coogan?

  We've got a bunch of stuff. So Miami's Coconut Grove, they calling it Billionaire's Grove? The ultra wealthy buyers have discovered Miami's once sleepy Coconut Grove neighborhood.

• 1:17:47Jordi Hays?

  Cam in the X chat says chugi is being carried by millennials.

• 1:17:50John Coogan?

  Okay, interesting. Thank you, Cam.

• 1:17:52Jordi Hays?

  Van says, what an unk term.

• 1:17:58John Coogan?

  Once known as a bohemian enclave, Miami's leafy Coconut Grove neighborhood is quickly transforming into a billionaire's playground, thanks to a string of mega-sales in the area. Unlike hotspots like Miami Beach and Indian Creek, the Grove, with its massive banyan trees, winding streets, and small gated communities, was little known to people outside of Miami until recently. "Most people hadn't heard of it unless they were local," said real estate agent Danny Hertzberg. Now the secret is out in a big way and it's on the cover of the Wall Street Journal mansion section. Since late December, Google co-founder Larry Page has spent eight, or $188.4 million on three properties in Coconut Grove, while businessman... Jorge, Jorge Moss, a co-owner of professional soccer team Inter Miami.

• 1:18:43Jordi Hays?

  Okay, but what did he actually do?

• 1:18:45John Coogan?

  Yeah, that's a good question. Look him up. He's just, he's busy. Introduced, just getting introduced as a businessman is incredible. That's life.

• 1:18:53Jordi Hays?

  Jorge Moss, president of Real Zaragoza.

• 1:18:57John Coogan?

  Okay. Is he really just a soccer guy?

• 1:18:59Jordi Hays?

  Nope. American billionaire businessman and chairman and largest shareholder of Mastech, a Miami-based construction and engineering.

• 1:19:05John Coogan?

  There we go.

• 1:19:06Jordi Hays?

  Founded by his father. Let's go.

• 1:19:07John Coogan?

  There we go. So he spent a hundred million. Both of those properties are within a few miles of a waterfront estate billionaire Ken Griffin purchased in 2022 for a hundred and six million, a Miami record. Locals are now competing with out-of-town buyers for homes. Real estate agents said, and housing prices in Coconut Grove, especially for waterfront property, have surged. The median single-family home sale price in Coconut Grove was 2.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, more than doubling from under a million dollars, 995,000 in 2019. So more than double in just six years.

• 1:19:47John Coogan?

  A $10 million home is now a $50 million home. Wow. Live, work, play. Coconut Grove was a hub for nightlife galleries and artists in the 1970s, 80s, 90s, but its retail and cultural scene faded. The housing market became kind of sleepy. Then, about a decade ago, the neighborhood's reinvention began with the redevelopment of the Coco Walk, open-air mall, and construction of luxury condos was introduced. Twenty million-dollar penthouses to the Grove for the first time. When COVID struck, an influx of families relocating from out-of-town were drawn to the area, which is walkable with high-end restaurants and retail, but little tourist activity. Part of the Grove's appeal is its proximity to downtown Miami and the Brickell neighborhood,

• 1:20:31John Coogan?

  where Griffin is building a new headquarters for Citadel. The Grove also has prestigious schools like Ransom Everglade School and Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart. Although the Grove isn't gated, there are a small number of gated communities within the neighborhood, such as Ye Little Wood, The Moorings, and Camp Biscayne. They're subtle, hidden, lush. You don't know they're there. That's a big appeal. The condo boom, new condo buildings have been at the epicenter of Coconut Grove's market resurgence. A decade ago, large new luxury units were relatively unknown in the area, said a developer. People thought I was crazy, Martin said. But his gamble

• 1:21:12John Coogan?

  paid off. Martin sold his own penthouse in the building for 17.8 million in 2023. Now, CMC Group and Fort Partners are developing a Four Seasons branded condo in Coconut Grove. Prices raised from 5 million to 16 million, excluding penthouses, which are expected to sell for $120 million combined. Although, that is far more expensive than any other condo sold in Coconut Grove to date. We think it's achievable, said Colombo. Great name for a Miami real estate person. The buyers looking for that before they would only consider Miami Beach. Now those buyers have Coconut Grove on their radar. Then there's bigger homes, too. The average lot size in Coconut Grove is under an acre,

• 1:21:53John Coogan?

  which is smaller than lots in other luxury enclaves. That used to deter buyers who wanted more land. But since 2020, developers and end-users alike have been expanding existing properties. People are starting to knock on the door of the neighbor next door and put together big, bigger assemblages. For example, Page bought a $101 million waterfront property owned by the late restaurateur Jonathan Lewis, then acquired a budding property for 15 million. Page also purchased a nearby property for 71.9 million from heiress Sloane Lindeman. A few waterfront homes in Coconut Grove are highly sought after, agent said. He recently

• 1:22:33John Coogan?

  sold a $16.5 million bayfront estate owned by Susie Welch, the widow of former General Electric co-chairman and CEO Jack Welch. Wow.

• 1:22:43Jordi Hays?

  I'm sick of Miami. Can we go to the mountains? What else we got?

• 1:22:46John Coogan?

  Yeah, let's go to the mountains. What's the next, what's the next story here?

• 1:22:49Jordi Hays?

  That is actually my general experience with Miami. It's amazing for a week.

• 1:22:56Jordi Hays?

  Then I'm ready to mix it up.

• 1:22:58John Coogan?

  Well, we could go to Manhattan, or we could go to Beverly Hills. What do you have in mind? Neither are particularly mountainous, but I guess the hills are slightly more mountainous. So there's a California villa here, built for James Cagney. Do you know the famed Hollywood film star James Cagney?

• 1:23:15Jordi Hays?

  Never heard of him, John.

• 1:23:16John Coogan?

  Wow. What were you doing in the 1930s and the 1940s when he was making gangster films such as Angels With Dirty Faces?

• 1:23:24Jordi Hays?

  Crazy name.

• 1:23:25John Coogan?

  Uh, he built the Stone Villa around 1939.

• 1:23:30Jordi Hays?

  We don't know how to name movies like that.

• 1:23:32John Coogan?

  Angels With Dirty Faces coming to your, a theater near you. Buy your tickets today. A year later, uh, so he died in 1986. A year later, his widow, Frances Cagney, sold the property to the current owner, Stephen Dunn, founder of the bra- of the baby product supplier Munchkin. Munchkin. Uh, Dunn didn't respond to comment. Cagney lived in Beverly Hills while filming, but otherwise spent his time at his farms in upstate New York in Martha's Vineyard. Actor Robert Wagner, a friend of Cagney's, wrote in a, in a 2014 Vanity Fair piece, "The California, uh, house was unpretentious, but had a studio with a wooden floor and a record player where Cagney practiced dancing."

• 1:24:15John Coogan?

  Wagner wrote. "After purchasing the Beverly Hills estate, Dunn expanded the villa to approximately 6,000 square feet, with three bedrooms," uh, said a listing agent. "In the 1990s, Dunn purchased an adjacent parcel, combining the properties into a compound spanning five acres. In addition to the main house, the property has a pool and a roughly 2,500 square foot guest house. Over the years, Dunn has added more space for guests." I don't think it has a moat, but does it have a lot of stone, uh?

• 1:24:42Jordi Hays?

  I know, the stone was, was, was, you know, signaling maybe, maybe there's an alligator moat.

• 1:24:47John Coogan?

  So 38.5 million, six bedrooms, multiple houses, tennis, pool, and your favorite, pickleball.

• 1:24:55Jordi Hays?

  A tennis pool?

• 1:24:57John Coogan?

  Tennis, tennis court and a pool.

• 1:24:58Jordi Hays?

  Okay.

• 1:24:59John Coogan?

  It has a pool cabana with an outdoor kitchen. It's landscaped extensively. It has pickleball courts. What do you think? Thirty-eight point five million for a six-bedroom?

• 1:25:10Jordi Hays?

  I like it.

• 1:25:11John Coogan?

  You like it?

• 1:25:12Jordi Hays?

  It's very unique.

• 1:25:12John Coogan?

  Buy at thirty-eight point five?

• 1:25:14Jordi Hays?

  It looks like it would withstand a wildfire.

• 1:25:16John Coogan?

  Yeah, that's true. That's true. The luxury market in Los Angeles is picking up after battling major headwinds, including a mansion tax and geopolitical uncertainty.

• 1:25:24Jordi Hays?

  World in the chat says, "Cop the estate, boys. New Ulterdome." We might have to, John, while we are live, our latest Ulterdome. They're that we had an offer in on. They're out.

• 1:25:39Jordi Hays?

  We've had like, we've had truly, if anybody has just a big building in the center of LA, we want to give you money for it. Let us do it. We've had such a fascinating time trying to get... The entertainment industry in LA has collapsed. It's a ghost town. It's a modern Detroit. And yet,

• 1:26:00Jordi Hays?

  yet we cannot find a building.

• 1:26:02John Coogan?

  I don't know why people like me. I keep talking trash about them in this town. You gotta glaze. You gotta triple-glaze them. It's the best. It's the best town. We just want to build it even better.

• 1:26:11Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, we're, all we're trying to do is bring media back to Hollywood.

• 1:26:17John Coogan?

  It's not degrading at all when you say it like that. Maybe we should move to Milan. It's the gold medal housing market, they're saying. The city co-hosting the Winter Olympics is a fashion hub with Europe's hottest luxury residential market. When the world's winter sports elite gatherers, this elite gathers this week for the opening ceremony of the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics. They're starting this week?

• 1:26:39Jordi Hays?

  Have you been to that arch?

• 1:26:40John Coogan?

  No, I've never been to Milan.

• 1:26:42Jordi Hays?

  It's quite nice.

• 1:26:43John Coogan?

  I've never been to Milan. It's a fashion and design hub that has long been the country's main economic center. It is increasingly becoming a tourist destination. And in 2017, Italy introduced tax laws favorable to new residents, which led to a...

• 1:26:57Jordi Hays?

  What about data centers?

• 1:26:59John Coogan?

  Yes. Let's convert Milan...

• 1:27:01Jordi Hays?

  A data center with that original arch aesthetic?

• 1:27:04John Coogan?

  For sure.

• 1:27:05Jordi Hays?

  Would...

• 1:27:06John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:27:06Jordi Hays?

  Would really... Would really be, uh,

• 1:27:10John Coogan?

  It would fix me.

• 1:27:10Jordi Hays?

  It would fix, it would fix me and fix Tyler. I mean, imagine it, we don't know how to make data centers that look like this. Everyone's talking about putting them-

• 1:27:17John Coogan?

  Who is saying that, Shom Sankar? Shom Sankar was saying-

• 1:27:19Jordi Hays?

  Everyone's talking about putting them in space. Why can't we convert some of these old-

• 1:27:23John Coogan?

  We're not just putting them in Milan, we're putting them in the most expensive neighborhood in Milan. That's Brera. Brera is a small exclusive neighborhood just west of the city's premier shopping district, uh, around Via Monte Napoleon. Uh, residential real estate in Brera, where most homes are apartments, is currently the city's most expensive. Brera's high-end sector had an average sale price of $1,868 per square foot. What would it cost to put Colossus there? How many square feet is Colossus? I want to know how many, because we gotta, we gotta go apartment by apartment racking NVL 72s in Milan, in the Brera neighborhood specifically.

• 1:28:06John Coogan?

  Uh, a renovated duplex sold for just over $28 million, the most ever paid for a Milan apartment. Uh, the adjacent Quattiera della Moda, or Fashion District, home to brands like Gucci and Cartier, was once the city's most expensive, but Brera has suddenly surpassed it. It's more livable. Well, for now, until we put these data centers in there. Uh, you can walk to the shops, but you're not living in a shop. People want penthouses with views and the, you know, there's a couple of other things in Brera. I don't know. Maybe that's the location of the next Ultra Dome. Uh, let me tell you about AppLovin. Profitable advertising made easy with Axon.ai.

• 1:28:48John Coogan?

  Get access to over 1 billion daily active users and grow your business today. Tyler, what's it gonna cost me to put a Colossus-sized data center in the Brera district in Milan, the neighborhood in Milan, that costs $1,800 per square foot?

• 1:29:04Speaker 04

  Okay, so apparently, uh, Colossus 1 is only 785,000 square feet.

• 1:29:08John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:29:09Speaker 04

  Uh, so it's only gonna be like 1.4 or 1.5 billion.

• 1:29:12John Coogan?

  Billion.

• 1:29:12Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:29:13John Coogan?

  Doable.

• 1:29:14Speaker 04

  So not bad at all.

• 1:29:15John Coogan?

  Easy.

• 1:29:15Speaker 04

  I mean, putting a, you know, to build a gigawatt of a data center is like 50 billion, right?

• 1:29:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:21Speaker 04

  That's like in that range, so I mean, this is like-

• 1:29:23John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:24Speaker 04

  Kind of a no-brainer.

• 1:29:25John Coogan?

  It's a no-brainer. It's a no brainer, as is interviewing Doug Olafland after earnings when he's suffering from Claude Code psychosis. Welcome to the stream Doug, how are you doing?

• 1:29:39Doug O'Laughlin?

  I'm doing wonderful. How are you guys doing?

• 1:29:41John Coogan?

  Great to see you.

• 1:29:41Jordi Hays?

  Can we pull up that, the video that you, that

• 1:29:44John Coogan?

  Oh, yes.

• 1:29:44Jordi Hays?

  John painstakingly made this morning that completely, that completely flopped.

• 1:29:48John Coogan?

  I'm, I'm very excited to have you on the show. It feels like that scene in Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which I saw where Sonic and Shadow team up and join forces to talk about CapEx and agentic coding. What, what's new in your world? Is, is Claude Code still the top of mind or are you still churning through the CapEx numbers from earnings?

• 1:30:09Jordi Hays?

  Are you somewhat of an agent for Claude now? Like you work for Claude?

• 1:30:13Doug O'Laughlin?

  I, I do actually. I think I mostly just move my information back and forth, you know? I have, I have pretty much like, I think of it as like my manager, you know, like it tells me what to do and then I go bring the information and I bring it to my coworkers. I bring it back. All day I'm just on Claude Code.

• 1:30:33John Coogan?

  How many, how many prompts are you running right now? Do you have any threads going?

• 1:30:39Doug O'Laughlin?

  Okay, so.

• 1:30:43Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, I have, I have seven. I have seven threads.

• 1:30:46John Coogan?

  Seven that are running right now or, or

• 1:30:48Doug O'Laughlin?

  No, no, not running, not running right now.

• 1:30:49John Coogan?

  Waiting for your input.

• 1:30:50Doug O'Laughlin?

  I'm waiting, waiting, waiting for my input.

• 1:30:52John Coogan?

  We'll, we'll let you get back to it.

• 1:30:53Jordi Hays?

  Why don't you just have an eighth that just

• 1:30:56John Coogan?

  Let's talk about, yeah, orchestration. Have you played with Gastown? Are you thinking about abstracting yourself to a higher level?

• 1:31:03Doug O'Laughlin?

  Ooh, okay. So Gastown is, um, it's pretty intense. I don't think Gastown's gonna work out. I think it's gonna be agent swarms.

• 1:31:10John Coogan?

  Okay. Okay. Explain the difference between, between Gastown and agent swarms.

• 1:31:16Doug O'Laughlin?

  Okay. So Gastown is probably of the most forward looking thing I've read in a long, long second. It talks about how you like created this like self-healing tool process to essentially to like pass all these beads across and have like all these workers and like ways to self-repair. The agent workflow process and I read it and I was like, dude, this is brilliant and also fucking crazy. It's like, it feels like a ravings of a bad man. And then I proceeded, well, I was also in my bad man era. Like before, before the new years, when you had two X times usage, I pretty much was like literally railing Claude code constantly. I think I had, I think I had four 14 hour days.

• 1:31:57John Coogan?

  Wow.

• 1:31:57Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, yeah, it was, it was beautiful.

• 1:31:59John Coogan?

  It was beautiful. Okay. So talk to us about what you're actually building because, uh, you know, we're, we're talking about SaaS apocalypse. It feels like there's a debate over build, rebuild all your tools from scratch to save whatever your SaaS fees are.

• 1:32:13Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. And even, even yesterday was notable. OpenAI comes out with Frontier.

• 1:32:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:32:17Jordi Hays?

  Which is, you look at like, you gotta look at this like graphic, which feels like it was made for, you know, Fortune 500 CEO to kind of, or management team to kind of understand it. And it's like, here's more SaaS to replace your other SaaS, right? It's like, you know, you've got the system of record down here. You have a bunch of agents in between and then you've got different applications that you're using. And meanwhile, Anthropic's just like, we're making a really smart digital guy that can do whatever you want.

• 1:32:45Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. So I think the two, there's like two really interesting ways. I think OpenAI is like the Fortune 500, selling it from the top, if that makes sense. And then, uh, Anthropic is like, here's my, here's your Claude code agent, sell 20,000 of them. Did you see the, the Accenture partnership? I think that's really interesting. So like, if you're, if you go back, uh, there's, they're doing 30,000 people at Accenture.

• 1:33:10John Coogan?

  What do you mean?

• 1:33:11Doug O'Laughlin?

  To like 30, 30,000 people at Accenture are going to learn how to Claude code.

• 1:33:15John Coogan?

  Oh.

• 1:33:17Jordi Hays?

  And then be, and then be deployed into different companies.

• 1:33:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:33:21Doug O'Laughlin?

  Who knows? Who knows?

• 1:33:24John Coogan?

  What else would they do?

• 1:33:24Doug O'Laughlin?

  Maybe they just replace Accenture. I mean, that's what I, that's what they're going to be doing, I think.

• 1:33:28John Coogan?

  Okay. Wait, so, yeah. So we're, we're, we're, what do you mean replace? If Accenture folks are using Claude code, wouldn't they be using it on consulting projects internally to companies?

• 1:33:39Doug O'Laughlin?

  I, I, I think they're going to be using it internally. Uh, as my, no, so they're going to be using internally and then they're going to be doing all these consulting things. Because if you think about it, one of the issues is like, You know, when you had SaaS, one of the biggest issues of like changing from one CRM to another was effectively being like, hey, everyone, you have to quit your jobs for like 10 months to figure this out. The implementation, like you'd have tons and tons of like consultants do that. And I think that that's what the Accenture partnership is. So essentially, like, people are going to be implementing Claude code, and there's 30,000 people at Accenture who's going to do it. And then on the other side, you have Frontier, which is like the Fortune 500 way of being like, here's your plan, come to us, and we'll build this whole thing, blah, blah, blah. So, yeah.

• 1:34:24John Coogan?

  But is re-implementing your CRM really the lowest hanging fruit for America's greatest companies? It can't possibly, there must be new ideas, new problems to solve, new tools to build. Like, why are we just going to shuffle the chips around the board instead of like doing something productive?

• 1:34:41Doug O'Laughlin?

  Okay, so I think the system of record refresh is going to be really awesome because, you know, like the big, I mean, it honestly does feel kind of boomer if you think about it, it's like the biggest data now, everyone can have the big data now. But I think the automation that you've always dreamed of is actually going to happen, and the system of record is just going to essentially have hooks out to all these other things that are going to build on top of it, which is mostly like, you know, the Frontier thing. And essentially, like, all the information work is just going to be like, all on the agent, and everything else is going to be like, place where it lives and is stored for Fonzie's. So, instead of me having someone, let me use my personal stack as the semi analysis, we use HubSpot, for example.

• 1:35:23Doug O'Laughlin?

  So, hey, the sales this quarter, we need this like quota, or who did what, or what products are selling better, or like, you know, what's the weekly conversion rate?

• 1:35:32John Coogan?

  How many more podcasts should Dylan do this month if we want to hit our goal?

• 1:35:36Doug O'Laughlin?

  That's totally different. We don't actually have like our, like, you know, the big, yeah, sure, how many more podcasts, shit like that, right? I could just vibe code it. I would just be like, hey, can you run this analysis for me? And in a perfect futuristic world, it'll go into the CRM, pull all the information of the, all of our inbounds, make, be like, hey, the day after Dylan goes on a podcast, there's like 25 people who, who come in, the conversion rate is X, you could price it at this, Dylan, quit your, you know, stop working and effectively just like hit the podcast.

• 1:36:08John Coogan?

  There we go.

• 1:36:09Doug O'Laughlin?

  You know, like, yeah, yeah, exactly. So, so. You could do this with anything, though. Like, it's just information, man. Like, it's, it's, it's gonna be pretty sick. But I think all the SaaS companies are going to essentially just become hooks for all the crap they built on top of it.

• 1:36:22Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah. Yeah, did you see Jensen yesterday was, was kind of defending some companies like SAP and ServiceNow and saying, hey, if I was a, if I was a really smart humanoid out doing work in the world and I needed a screwdriver, would I just invent a new screwdriver? Or would I just take one off the shelf? And so that was like his defense. Tyler here was, took, took the other side of it and just said, there's gonna be a lot of situations where, especially in a software-only environment, it's easier to just build a very specific workflow that you need, that you would have gotten from a SaaS provider versus, you know, you don't need to actually rebuild the entire platform.

• 1:37:04Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, I think we're gonna be building a lot of screwdrivers. Like, things, like, the thing that's important is like, okay, you're not gonna rent a truck, right? Like, you're not gonna build your own truck, but your own screwdriver, 100%. Like, you're doing this big ginormous job. You need a hammer. You'd be like, okay, pull it out of my belt, okay? But you're not gonna be like, I'm about to move 700 tons of, like, here to here. I need to rent a truck. You're not gonna build the truck. And so that's what I think the system of records are gonna look like. They're gonna look like places where, like, actual data that cannot be like, like, cannot be vibed effectively, like, what's your inventory? Cannot have any fucking hallucinations, right? Like, your ERP, but all of that will just be hooks for everything else.

• 1:37:47Doug O'Laughlin?

  Because like, all the information is just like polling, retrieving, making the correlation, running the charts, like, people make mistakes in that all the time.

• 1:37:54Jordi Hays?

  But then, but then, how do you square the fact that a system of record is way less sticky if you have agents that can work around the clock to switch you over to a different system of record? Like, that still ends up putting massive pricing pressure.

• 1:38:09Doug O'Laughlin?

  So to be clear, I don't think it's good for everyone. Like, I think my favorite analogy of this is like, there actually is a very old school type of software that's like existed for a long time. All the shit on mainframes. It's all it's all out there. Yeah. And you know, like, funny enough, mainframes still grew like 6% a year or whatever. Someone has the real number from like 2002 to 2020.

• 1:38:32John Coogan?

  It's crazy.

• 1:38:32Doug O'Laughlin?

  So like, they're they're gonna grow, but it's just gonna be like a very different vision of the world that I don't think people are ready for.

• 1:38:39John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:38:40Doug O'Laughlin?

  And and the adjustment period is the big problem because all the stocks are priced like they're not going to be mainframes. And and also, just for context, mainframes are like, hey, there's one of each company now.

• 1:38:52John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:38:52Doug O'Laughlin?

  There's not there's not like 10.

• 1:38:54John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:38:55Doug O'Laughlin?

  Just one each.

• 1:38:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. So I think with all these, all these, whether you're a system of record or you're, you know, some vertical software, you're going to need to show insane revenue growth in a truly AI native product. Otherwise, investors, I think, are going to continue to not be able to create a super compelling narrative, why you should own it during this period of uncertainty.

• 1:39:19Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. I mean, pretty much what happens, and we're gonna go like investor brain, when anything goes X growth, the multiple goes massively down.

• 1:39:27John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, that makes sense.

• 1:39:28Doug O'Laughlin?

  Eight times earnings.

• 1:39:29John Coogan?

  Can you talk a little bit more about what you're actually coding, what you're building, like what the software is? Because from the demos that I've seen that you've posted, it feels much more like you have an agent that can do knowledge retrieval, data transformation, build dashboards, charts, and and like knowledge work as opposed to truly replacing software tools at this point. But do you have you built anything that's like long-lived and and runs like daily or is like something you keep revisiting because it's now a piece of software that does the job?

• 1:40:05Doug O'Laughlin?

  So the Codcode commits, the Codcode commits is now software that lives and runs every single day.

• 1:40:10John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 1:40:11Doug O'Laughlin?

  That's like a scraper, right? And then like that that like lives in a database and that that will run forever. There's like a lot of other tracking price data tool stuff, like a lot of the scraping that we're like. That is not like publicly available, like we do like a lot of that, like we had a data team just do that. And now effectively, we can like really accelerate that. So everyone could do that.

• 1:40:31John Coogan?

  Sure, sure.

• 1:40:31Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, there are other like little things that I think are like heuristics. Uh, like little skills of like, I have blind spots that I consistently make over and over. And I'm like, hey, I know this blind spot's an issue, but why you should like, consider this in this case. Um, I, I don't think it's like the galaxy brain software and we're very far from there. Because if you actually play with these tools a lot, context rot is real. Yeah. So.

• 1:40:56John Coogan?

  I, is it, is, but it is, how fast is it getting better? Because it feels like we're seeing the meter graph.

• 1:41:01Doug O'Laughlin?

  Scary fast.

• 1:41:02John Coogan?

  Scary fast, right?

• 1:41:03Doug O'Laughlin?

  Scary, scary, scary. So, um, I started vibe coding with, uh, Claude four. And it just wasn't, uh, or they're sorry, Opus four on Claude code. And it just could not one-shot websites in the way that four point five and four point six can. And if it just marginally improves from here, it feels like, why would I pay for like any kind of UI UX if it's just gonna be generated at a good enough quality?

• 1:41:27John Coogan?

  Yeah. How did you process the new models this week? Four, six, five, three. What's the review?

• 1:41:35Jordi Hays?

  If you don't, if you can't immediately notice the difference between four, five and four, six, start polishing your resume. You are cooked.

• 1:41:44Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. Yeah. You just got automated by an agent.

• 1:41:50Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, I think four, six was a little disappointing, if we're honest with you.

• 1:41:57Doug O'Laughlin?

  I, I think it might've been Sonnet five.

• 1:41:59John Coogan?

  Oh, that's what people are saying. That's the conspiracy theory, right? But what, what does that mean?

• 1:42:04Doug O'Laughlin?

  Um, the original Sonnet five leaks were that it's like as good as Opus four point five, but with one million context window and specifically trained for Asian swarms.

• 1:42:14John Coogan?

  Sure. So, well, yeah, but does that just mean like same quality, but faster, cheaper? At least for Anthropic.

• 1:42:21Doug O'Laughlin?

  And then they, and they make more money.

• 1:42:23John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. But yeah, better margins. How are the margins looking for the, the labs right now? There's been, there was a bunch of like FUD around it, but it seems like from all the leaks, it's been like fifty, sixty, seventy percent. Pretty good.

• 1:42:33Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. If, if you X all the free users, it's always really good, right? But honestly, Anthropic has no free users or like on a relative basis. So their margins are ironically like, like kind of on a like to like basis, kind of not as good as you think.

• 1:42:48John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:42:50John Coogan?

  Can you break down a little bit more of the thesis of the Claude code is an inflection point article, what the key takeaway, who you're speaking to, what update you wanted to share, and then I want to go into some of the pushback and your response to that.

• 1:43:07Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, sure. So first, I think the thing that makes me really excited is the first time since Shana thought, I feel like we have a new scaling that feels very, very different and hardcore, and I can actually see my entire life day to day change. I think I can expect some version of a Claude code harness to be effectively all my information work from now till the future. I am a daily user. I was not a daily user before, and I expect to continue to be one.

• 1:43:40John Coogan?

  And that's kind of what happened with the reasoning models. It went from like, you could ask it stuff, but it might hallucinate to like, the answers are good. Like, you can pretty much rely, and there's going to be citations, and like, it's going to be 99.999% like percent like usable for things. So if you just have a question, you get that. It may be not great at certain things, but in general, like, it delivered on the initial like chat experience that I think a lot of people were looking for. And then they became yeah.

• 1:44:07Jordi Hays?

  How much do you think Anthropic cares more about winning in consumer than they've led on to date?

• 1:44:16Doug O'Laughlin?

  No, I don't think so. Everyone, everyone who works there is exactly like, like what you think it is. They're exactly who they say they are.

• 1:44:27John Coogan?

  Yeah. Their software singularity pilled.

• 1:44:30Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. And then I think cowork is what they're really excited about.

• 1:44:33John Coogan?

  Sure. Makes sense. Yeah. What was this pushback?

• 1:44:37Jordi Hays?

  So they're not even, they're not even, they're not even thinking about the scenario where a bunch of people are using Claude in the work, in a work setting and say, hey, this is pretty great. And yeah, ChatGPT has ads. I'm happy to pay 20 bucks a month. I'll use it personally. Because I just think there's like an iPhone, like, I think the game to get to like 3 billion users is like over, when you just look at the traction of like Gemini and ChatGPT and the fact that norm, normal people aren't caring that much about the nuance. Maybe that don't have that much to automate in their life. But there's like an iPhone sized market. Like, the iPhone wasn't the first smartphone to launch. And it's possible, like, when I see this, like, When I see this, like, the the Super Bowl ad, the sort of like trust nuke, I was calling it,

• 1:45:20Jordi Hays?

  right? Just like, hey, like, it's really funny. They're like, you know, rage baiting OpenAI, but at the same time, they're just destroying like trust around ads and LLMs potentially, like permanently, right? Because people, even when they start seeing ads that are more like display ads, they'll start thinking, well, like, was the result influence too? You know, it just like, it hurts the trust. And so I think there, I think my my theory is that any product that like really catches on in the workplace could very well trickle over into into life. And Anthropic could someday have a pretty big, you know, they could have like a Netflix sized subscriber base for people that just want an ad free AI experience.

• 1:46:02Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, that sounds completely right to me.

• 1:46:05Jordi Hays?

  But but you're saying for your point is like, it's just secondary to them. They're like, it's a nice to have, but like, we don't, that's not, that's not our intention.

• 1:46:13Doug O'Laughlin?

  I think, okay, so singularity pill, but I also, I think you have to pay for the singularity, and I think it's going to be enterprise that does it.

• 1:46:19John Coogan?

  Hmm, makes sense.

• 1:46:20Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah.

• 1:46:20John Coogan?

  Yeah, I mean, the other, the other take on like, you could wind up being like the Apple and like the premium, you know, with privacy focused, or you could wind up being like the Duck Duck Go, which was like, yeah, it was a counter to Google, but it never got to any meaningful scale, right?

• 1:46:35Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, but I still think, I still think OpenAI is the Apple. Like, like, Apple was synonymous with smartphones when it really took off. Like, like, what is the other smartphone?

• 1:46:46John Coogan?

  BlackBerry, Nokia.

• 1:46:47Doug O'Laughlin?

  Maybe you can argue this is like a BlackBerry. Yeah, I can't name it. Yeah. Well, like BlackBerry, right? It was known for work.

• 1:46:56John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:46:57Doug O'Laughlin?

  And then obviously, like, it swapped over. So I still think OpenAI is like the cognitive reference. And honestly, 5.3 cooks.

• 1:47:03John Coogan?

  Yeah. Faster or just better? Or both?

• 1:47:07Doug O'Laughlin?

  Faster and better.

• 1:47:08John Coogan?

  Faster and better. Okay, talk about 5.2 token efficiency. Rune was pushing back on the article, saying, you make it, you're making the assertion that 5.2 token efficiency ruins long horizon planning. And yet, 5.2 tops the meter chart for long horizon planning. Half baked. What's the explanation there?

• 1:47:30Doug O'Laughlin?

  Didn't someone completely mock that argument? But he's kind of a, he's like, sorry, I gotta find the guy. But it's like,

• 1:47:39Doug O'Laughlin?

  I don't know what task is being done here. Like, is are are they the same hardness?

• 1:47:45John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 1:47:46Doug O'Laughlin?

  Did you just spam it to infinity and like you finished like a sufficiently long task to completion? Versus like, um, like, okay, let's just say we have two kids taking the SAT and one does a better job and finishes first. And one does like almost as good of a job and took seven times this long. And you're like, wow, that one's the smart kid.

• 1:48:05John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:48:07Doug O'Laughlin?

  No, dude, that doesn't make any sense.

• 1:48:09John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, yeah. An elegant solution delivered faster is uniformly better.

• 1:48:15Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, a hundred percent.

• 1:48:16John Coogan?

  That makes sense.

• 1:48:17Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. And so if you spam more tokens like and you win and you're like, oh, look, I mobbed them. And it's like, dude, what if you just use less tokens?

• 1:48:25John Coogan?

  I think the benchmark is supposed to be for for they have they have a reference class of of projects that are supposed to take X amount of time. They would take a human developer six hours and then they have all the models compete. And if you can compete the six hour task, then you get put at the six hour mark. It's not, did you run for six hours? It it it's. So so so it could be like implement a CRM product or, you know, write a very complicated, you know, database or something. It would take, you know, a a talented software developer, six hours, two hours, one hour, and they have different tasks. And then you're trying to climb that hurdle.

• 1:49:02Doug O'Laughlin?

  Oh, yeah. And then it's it it okay, it climbs higher and higher.

• 1:49:05John Coogan?

  I I think I think that's loosely it. It's because because obviously you could just say, okay, just reasoning count to one billion and just go as slow as. And it works for days and that's not impressive.

• 1:49:15Doug O'Laughlin?

  I I also think the meter, the, yeah, I mean, it's okay. So, yeah, you're right. The the different the scaling thing, but like. Okay, so one, the other thing I was doing, like now that we have vibe coding available to everyone, you can just have it do the same task and do like ABC. Like I I've been doing like a lot of internal benchmarking, like you could, everyone could benchmark guys like, um, dude. Codex five point two took so long and just never built for me. And it's like, all the Codex hype during like, it just never worked for me, man. Like it never it never one shot projects like Opus four point five did. And I'm just like, this feels like complete food. Um, but that being said. Codex 5.3 cooks. Like, I think I take everything back about 5.2 for 5.3.

• 1:49:57John Coogan?

  Nice. Total reversal. Classic AI narrative, just day by day, complete switching of the narrative. Talk about the NPM downloads, because you said that you're now scraping them every day, trying to understand how many commits on GitHub are related to Claude code. And the pushback from Moon was that this counts NPM downloads as authoritative when Claude code numbers are hugely inflated, because GitHub Actions does automatic Claude code download every time continuous integration CI runs versus Codex Compute Cloud. So maybe it's not apples to apples. What's more nuance on the fast takeoff of Claude code? Because honestly, when you said 20% of commits by the end of the year, I was like, that feels extremely low.

• 1:50:41John Coogan?

  I would expect like 70%, and I would expect Codex to be at 30%, and no more human commits, because it's working.

• 1:50:47Doug O'Laughlin?

  So I wanted to make sure we have like a high standard, like a high 95% plus. I don't think, like, sure, if it continues to grow on a week and week basis, like, yeah, it's like, you know, 100% by June or something like that.

• 1:51:02John Coogan?

  Well, there's also the fact that like, you could be writing code and still just like, almost be using Claude code as like your Linter, or like your interface to GitHub. And if there's an abstraction layer there that people adopt, you're going to see the commits go through the roof, even if they're still human in the loop, meaningfully.

• 1:51:17Doug O'Laughlin?

  Look, look, look, look. I'm not going to pretend like the Claude code commits thing is like the cleanest way ever. There's a lot of ways, there's a lot of ways to fuck the data up. For example, people who use, who, you could just say, don't do this, and won't do it. Number two, like, private on a ratio is like five times bigger. That matters way more. And then, like, I also think that, like, the way you consume it, like, this doesn't count for cursor. People have been clearly using AI for like a long while. It doesn't show up. This is just the example I can like say, like, hey, chart goes up really quickly.

• 1:51:50John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's still cool.

• 1:51:52Doug O'Laughlin?

  It's not perfect. It's a dataset that I create in a relatively short amount of time. Yeah, I'm like, whoa, seems pretty cool.

• 1:52:00John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, no, it is.

• 1:52:02Jordi Hays?

  Did we talk about Amazon?

• 1:52:03John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, let's move over to hyperscalers.

• 1:52:05Jordi Hays?

  Reaction was the number two low.

• 1:52:08John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah. They're not taking it seriously. Yeah.

• 1:52:12Doug O'Laughlin?

  20 billion was crazy. That was crazy to me.

• 1:52:14John Coogan?

  Okay, why?

• 1:52:15Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, that was really shocking. You know, we do a lot of data center tracking and we do a lot of accelerated tracking and we were too up.

• 1:52:24John Coogan?

  Okay, are they, are they, are they trying to play some sort of hype game where they're throwing out the biggest number and they're not actually even going to be able to buy enough equipment to spend it, even if they are signaling to the market, we're going to be hearing like, well, we wanted to buy this many Nvidia chips, but we couldn't get them, or we have a delay at this data center because of regulation. And so they're just trying to project strength because they're sort of behind on the AI narrative a little bit. They don't have the big position that Microsoft does in OpenAI. They don't have, you know, a deep mind level team. And so they're saying, we're going to go biggest on the dollar front, but then maybe they don't deliver on it. Or do you think at the end of the year, we'll be like, yeah, they spent 200 billion?

• 1:53:08Doug O'Laughlin?

  I think at the end of the year, they're going to be like, yeah, they spent 200 billion.

• 1:53:11John Coogan?

  Let's go.

• 1:53:12Doug O'Laughlin?

  They, they are the single biggest provider of power in the entire world, I think. Like the incremental and the AWS like supply chain can ramp a lot quicker than anyone else. And every, every example that we track in the data center, like the data center team, they are on time and can scale to like levels that are crazy.

• 1:53:33John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:53:34Doug O'Laughlin?

  Like Reneer's ramp is just like out of this world fast compared to everyone else. Every other gigawatt project is essentially delayed and they're going to be like ish on time.

• 1:53:42John Coogan?

  Wow. So isn't that extremely just like good for Amazon? Like they're properly positioned, they're properly transitioning, like they, yeah, like who knows what happens to the rest of this, but eventually this thing is just like part of the.

• 1:53:55Jordi Hays?

  We were talking earlier, like Jassy didn't exactly paint this like incredibly exciting vision and share like, hey, we, you guys are actually underestimating demand. Still, even if you're bullish on AI, you're underestimating demand and we're in a position to actually try to get a more accurate read here and that's why we're investing.

• 1:54:16Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. And it's funny because they could have said one thing that would have made the AWS call better and they'd be like, yeah, we see high twenties and like the stock would have ripped. But they're like, we continue to project to see this level of growth.

• 1:54:30Jordi Hays?

  What percentage, what percentage of the 200 billion do you think will actually flow to Nvidia? Because Nvidia is rallying today. That's why we're wearing white suits, but it didn't rally immediately in after hours.

• 1:54:43Doug O'Laughlin?

  I think a meaningful amount. I definitely cannot disclose what semi-analysis thinks.

• 1:54:49John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:54:49Doug O'Laughlin?

  But I think they're going to run out of trainium and the answer is like, what's the biggest amount of supply chain? That's like locked up. It's it's it's Nvidia.

• 1:55:00John Coogan?

  Yeah, that makes a ton of sense.

• 1:55:01Jordi Hays?

  Can you get Macron a free semi-analysis plan?

• 1:55:07Jordi Hays?

  Cause he came out this week with his big new initiative, thirty million euros for AI research. France is going to be the home of of research.

• 1:55:16John Coogan?

  How do you think all the hyperscalers will respond?

• 1:55:19Doug O'Laughlin?

  You you know what's crazy is people have been trying to do a lot of work in France for a long time because they have this giant nuclear power plant. Yeah, it's kind of stranded and no one uses it and like everyone wants to be like, dude, I can get a gigawatt here. And then they like try to start building and they're just like, yeah, this is never going to happen. I'm just going to go back to the United States, even though United States is like all fucked up. It's like, I can I can start there. And they're like, no, no, no, we'll start in like five years.

• 1:55:47John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:55:47Doug O'Laughlin?

  And I can think of two specific projects that essentially did the same thing where it's like, oh, my God, all this France data center power. And then like they started and like, never mind.

• 1:55:56John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:55:58Jordi Hays?

  Why do you think Grok is climbing the charts right now? Any any insight? It's like number three after get free cash and after chat GPT in the overall app store.

• 1:56:10John Coogan?

  The iOS app store.

• 1:56:11Doug O'Laughlin?

  I dude, actually, one, this tells you how locked in I've been with Claude code. I had no idea.

• 1:56:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:56:17Jordi Hays?

  You're so locked in with Claude researching the AI race that you.

• 1:56:23John Coogan?

  It's just, yeah, it's interesting. I mean, I, I, you know, the the app store is based on like acceleration, but you know, the the Grok hype cycle of like, you know, let's push all the Twitter users or the X users there. Like that sort of already happened. Like, I don't know how this is happening because there isn't much hype about.

• 1:56:38Jordi Hays?

  And it's happening. Yeah, it's happening off X.

• 1:56:40John Coogan?

  Yeah. And a lot of people were like, yeah, like you can talk to Ani and Valentine, but like, is that really popular? Might be.

• 1:56:47Jordi Hays?

  Ani singular.

• 1:56:51Doug O'Laughlin?

  The real singularly lonely people.

• 1:56:53John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:56:53Doug O'Laughlin?

  Oh, my God.

• 1:56:54John Coogan?

  Maybe.

• 1:56:56Doug O'Laughlin?

  I I did see a video of like the Stormlight Archive thing, and that I feel like like hit a broader audience in terms of video generation. And I think video generation like that always kind of wins.

• 1:57:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:57:09Doug O'Laughlin?

  We actually did an analysis of this a while ago.

• 1:57:11Jordi Hays?

  You need to be bullish on the Disney OpenAI deal.

• 1:57:15John Coogan?

  I think so.

• 1:57:15Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, you have to be.

• 1:57:16Jordi Hays?

  We we've seen we've seen the Nano Banana bump.

• 1:57:19John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:57:19Jordi Hays?

  With Gemini.

• 1:57:20John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 1:57:20Jordi Hays?

  You and and this feels like it could be on an entirely different level.

• 1:57:24John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:57:24Doug O'Laughlin?

  Well, you know, my favorite thing is Gemini wasn't what actually like made it rip. It was Nano Banana.

• 1:57:32John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:57:33Doug O'Laughlin?

  Like, the ratio likes really improved in terms of OpenAI to Gemini.

• 1:57:37John Coogan?

  Totally.

• 1:57:37Doug O'Laughlin?

  Uh, like way before, and then like Gemini like slightly helped, but I would say it's like ninety percent is Banana Banana.

• 1:57:43John Coogan?

  No, no, no, no. You can you. Yeah, you can just share an image and it's immediately apparent what is going on. It's a unique capability that you can't get anywhere else. They've cornered the market specifically on like the image editing, not just the diffusion, but the like being able to take a photo, change the background and have it actually look like your face or have the text look great. Like, it was it was a unique, unique product, really, beyond a model.

• 1:58:06Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. Oh, this is, by the way, this is my final steaming uptake in code.

• 1:58:12John Coogan?

  Please.

• 1:58:13Doug O'Laughlin?

  The reason why you should actually pay attention so much is because this is the first time, like, image models essentially always gain share, video models always gain share, like Studio Ghibli moment. And then obviously, ChatGPT, this is the first like new moment.

• 1:58:28John Coogan?

  Hmm, yeah.

• 1:58:29Doug O'Laughlin?

  It's in a new modality, being the agent, and it's like actually kicking off.

• 1:58:33John Coogan?

  Yeah, I mean, how how important do you think the co-work, like the desktop app, mobile functionality is to that? Because like the you could have, you can have truly magic.

• 1:58:43Jordi Hays?

  Chat has some insight, a lot of people using Grok video to compete for a one million dollar contract.

• 1:58:48John Coogan?

  Oh, that's right.

• 1:58:49Jordi Hays?

  It's free money.

• 1:58:50John Coogan?

  You have.

• 1:58:51Jordi Hays?

  Free money.

• 1:58:51John Coogan?

  Okay, yeah, so it's free cash and then free money. The the top two apps in the top three give you cash. That is a good fact check. Thank you, chat. But, yeah, my my question about like, like, can you have a Studio Ghibli like moment? If you have to open up a terminal, just because there are so many normies that would just will never open the terminal, no matter how magical the, you know, AI god is behind the terminal. It's just too much to go type one line of command.

• 1:59:20Doug O'Laughlin?

  That's why cowork and Codex are gonna like probably be what actually happens. I think it's really fun to like play around in the like whatever 1% adopter. And I'm really enjoying it, but I just don't think.

• 1:59:32John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:59:33Doug O'Laughlin?

  Like, like, yeah, it's gonna be coworker Codex and Codex is actually pretty good. Codex is, I think, a slightly more polished experience than cowork.

• 1:59:41John Coogan?

  Yeah. Uh, last question for me. Take me on the journey of what's going on with Microsoft. What you predicted, the, the, how that's changed, what how their strategy has changed. Like, give me the, the proper way to understand Microsoft these days.

• 1:59:55Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, Microsoft's not in the race, bro.

• 1:59:58John Coogan?

  Why?

• 1:59:59Doug O'Laughlin?

  Where, where are they? They, they, I know, but they're getting owned.

• 2:00:03John Coogan?

  They have all of the IP. I, I, I don't, I agree with you. I don't understand why it's not like, oh, 5.3 launches. Microsoft's announcing it the same day and it's actually integrated and people are using it like on day one. It takes time.

• 2:00:15Doug O'Laughlin?

  It's a skill issue.

• 2:00:16John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:00:17Doug O'Laughlin?

  It's clearly something's going on. And, and honestly, the thing that makes me most bearish that is the fact that Satya is like, I'm not the CEO now. I'm the, I'm the product manager of Copilot because I'm so boned if I don't get this figured out.

• 2:00:30John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:00:31Doug O'Laughlin?

  Like, you could argue it is the mo, it is now existential. He's decided like, hey, that my CEO job is getting this one thing right. Otherwise we're screwed and that is, um, kinda worrying.

• 2:00:42John Coogan?

  It does feel like they could potentially, it feels like Google all over again.

• 2:00:45Jordi Hays?

  The pullback at the beginning of last year, kind of the, the, the, the quick pause is now looking silly in the context of Amazon coming in now and saying, yeah, we're, everybody's on board now.

• 2:00:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:00:59Jordi Hays?

  We'll see.

• 2:01:00Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah. Yeah, we'll see. I think, um, they had the most to lose.

• 2:01:03John Coogan?

  Hmm.

• 2:01:04Jordi Hays?

  What about GPU utilization? Brad Gersner was hosting CNBC today, which was very cool. Uh, talking about how, you know, in the dot com build out, you, the, the dark fiber was something only like 7% of fiber that was being laid was actually being used. It was like obvious even at the time that. And yet now we're seeing GPU utilization rates, you know, maxed out.

• 2:01:29John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:01:30Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, I think that's a pretty good counterpoint to anyone who's like, ah, whatever. Like, at this point, H100 pricing has massively firmed up. B200 pricing definitely has super firmed up. And like, hey, there's clearly demand. I mean, you know, whatever they're doing on the other side of it, that's like, that's the customers' issues. But like, I mean, I still think, like, honestly, man, the Codex, or sorry, my brain's on that stuff. Claude Code has been the most magical moment in technology for me in like my entire time, I think.

• 2:02:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:02:10Doug O'Laughlin?

  It just feels awesome, man.

• 2:02:11John Coogan?

  Since the Game Boy.

• 2:02:12Doug O'Laughlin?

  Dude, this is better than Game Boys for me. I'm an information addict, though.

• 2:02:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:02:18Doug O'Laughlin?

  I am, so.

• 2:02:20John Coogan?

  Well, we appreciate you taking the time to come chat with us and writing about it and everything that you do. If you're listening, go hop on Semi Analysis.

• 2:02:29Jordi Hays?

  Sign up for the 10 million a year plan. You get Doug's phone number, you can text him.

• 2:02:36Doug O'Laughlin?

  You actually can, actually.

• 2:02:38Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I know, I know.

• 2:02:40John Coogan?

  You should just do it, though.

• 2:02:41Jordi Hays?

  I mean, and it's underpriced. You're giving it away. It's taking away your time from your, all your different agents, so you gotta price it in a big way.

• 2:02:49Doug O'Laughlin?

  Yeah, you're right. That's right, you know? My manager will hate that.

• 2:02:52John Coogan?

  Have a good rest of your day. Have a good weekend. We'll talk to you soon.

• 2:02:57Jordi Hays?

  Cheers.

• 2:02:58John Coogan?

  Goodbye. Finn.ai, the number one AI agent for customer service. If you want AI to handle your customer support, go to Finn.ai. And without further ado, we have Max Levchin, the CEO of a firm.

• 2:03:09Jordi Hays?

  Coffee King, back.

• 2:03:11John Coogan?

  Welcome to the show.

• 2:03:12Jordi Hays?

  Max, what's going on? Great to see you.

• 2:03:14Max Levchin?

  See you, guys. How's it going?

• 2:03:16Jordi Hays?

  Doing great. Catch us up on the last quarter.

• 2:03:22Max Levchin?

  Pretty damn great if I do say so myself. Thirty-six percent year-on-year growth of sales volume of our merchants. First billion dollars in revenue quarter, 1.1-ish, so.

• 2:03:33Jordi Hays?

  It's insane.

• 2:03:36Jordi Hays?

  What's, uh, what's, what's driving that? Obviously, there's some seasonality, but, um, what are the inputs?

• 2:03:43Max Levchin?

  End of the year quarter, some, some working sales. Times happen then, Black Friday comes to mind. The outlier grower is a firm card. That, that thing is still absolutely on fire growing over 100% year-over-year. Both active users, transactions, like every nut you can imagine. I think it's going triple digits. Um, we did a thing in October. We decided we're going to invent our own shopping holiday. Call it the big nothing because basically everyone got a 0% APR deal. I draw your attention to the fact that when we say it's 0% APR, it's 0% APR and it doesn't change, it doesn't flip. We don't, we don't cheat.

• 2:04:24Jordi Hays?

  No fine print.

• 2:04:25Max Levchin?

  No fine print, one of our core values. Literally somewhere on the wall here. Yep, right there in the corner. It says no fine print and we'll stick to it. Um, and so the, uh, you know, it, it really, uh, it really blew up. We, we expected it to be big, but it was really, really big and we had to upload merchants, basically subsidize APRs down to zero for just about everyone. And it had a huge impact on our numbers.

• 2:04:48Jordi Hays?

  Okay, so it was actually, so, so it was enabled by the individual merchants?

• 2:04:52Max Levchin?

  Yeah, so the merchants basically said, hey, you know what? We will pay your interest. That's good.

• 2:04:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah. Cool. Uh, I want to get right, talk about fintech broadly. Uh, what, it's been an absolutely wild week in, in the markets. I think everybody's been looking at, uh, PayPal, just wondering how, how can a business with, you know, this kind of user base, uh, this, this much, uh,

• 2:05:18John Coogan?

  You have network effects, you know, licenses.

• 2:05:21Jordi Hays?

  Heavily regulated, all, all these different things. It, it doesn't, obviously there's a management component to it.

• 2:05:26John Coogan?

  Last thing you'd vibe code and yet it feels like it's part of that software SaaS apocalypse. But how have you been processing sort of like the AI craziness narrative? It feels like, we were, we were saying like, maybe people are giving a little bit too much credit to the AI labs as disruptors. But how have you been processing it?

• 2:05:45Max Levchin?

  I don't know if if I would throw the PayPal baby with the AI bathwater.

• 2:05:55John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:05:55Max Levchin?

  You will. I think the it is always very dangerous to comment on what the market's really saying. Market's not human, it all sorts of things, but short term, it's voting machine. So I think the PayPal

• 2:06:14Max Levchin?

  thing is really not a commentary on software is cheap, software is free. Like, if you look at the strategy of the outgoing CEO, who I know pretty well and respect greatly, he's a real bona fide product guy, and I should know one since I think myself one of those. His strategy was very much build more software, expand the footprint of PayPal into all sorts of really interesting directions. And so if, and obviously, I was not even a little bit privy to any decisions taking place or why did they choose to change management, but if the company believed that software is better, cheaper, easier to build, they wouldn't have changed horses because the previous guy was absolutely beating the drum of let's build software.

• 2:06:54Max Levchin?

  Now, I don't know why and what they'll do next, but I do agree with you. It is my first child. I feel a little bit sad, but I do compete with it now with my second child. So it's so bad.

• 2:07:08Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I guess, I guess, what do you, so there's a lot of AI opportunity with with a firm. The opportunity, one, people just understanding more about the financial products that they use in their everyday life and start to prove, you know, choose products that don't have all the fine print. Obviously, efficiency in the business is a is a whole other one. I'm sure that you're getting a lot out of that. But when people ask you about the AI risk to a firm, anything on the risk side, and then and then payments companies as well, what is your answer?

• 2:07:42Max Levchin?

  So I think I have a fairly basic framework, how I think about sort of AI changes everything. It doesn't change that much, sort of, you know, very broad categorization here. If you're in the business of owning cash flow producing assets, or better yet, manufacturing cash flow producing assets, you're probably going to be okay. Like today, if you're making things that create cash flow, you're probably using software. If you're not, you're not doing it right. And so if you are, and you're using software, making software to create cash flowing assets, it's about to get really, really cheap and much faster and a lot more efficient. And we're certainly taking full advantage of that idea at the firm. And that's what we do.

• 2:08:26Max Levchin?

  We make cash flow producing assets. They're known as affirmed loans. There are about forty odd million of them made every quarter and growing pretty quickly.

• 2:08:35Max Levchin?

  It is difficult to roll out of bed and say, let's vibe code that because you can vibe code some of the code. But before you get to our scale or our revenue, you have to convince the enormous number of out markets partners you need to process on your, you know, tens of billions of dollars of loans. We're not a bank, we're not lending from our own deposits. That means someone downstream is financing these loans. And so those are relationships are not vibe coded and they can't happen overnight.

• 2:09:03Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, you can't vibe code a relationship, a real one.

• 2:09:06Max Levchin?

  You cannot.

• 2:09:08Jordi Hays?

  And so with, yeah, so with payments, you have, you, we, you know, the, the whole regulatory side too. If you're going in, you're like in your dorm room and you're like, hey, I built PayPal. And you go to say like, okay, now I should probably get some money transmitter licenses. Like, you know, I, I expect at some point regulators to say like, okay, like what, what is, what does your operation look like? Do you have any compliance experience? And all, and all these things. And, and so at some point, and then, and then what you're saying is the capital markets is probably even a bigger challenge. Let's say you, you can somehow get the licenses, uh, licenses. Then are people going to trust you with, you know, billions of dollars?

• 2:09:46Max Levchin?

  Exactly. The both, another sort of way of cutting the whole AI accelerates everything.

• 2:09:52Max Levchin?

  Some things are still taking about as long as they always did. So regulators are not going to be like, oh, cool. You're in your dorm room. You vibe coded a global payment network. Right on. Here's some licenses. But like, eh, it takes 18 months to get a full complement of MTLs. And by the way, you have to like prove that you're a legitimate business and you're not going to be used for money laundering. So.

• 2:10:11Jordi Hays?

  And there and it's very expensive. It's not like it's like a driver's license where you get it and there's no kind of like ongoing. It's like you need to be able to like carry the the weight of of of the licensing.

• 2:10:23Max Levchin?

  Yeah. So licensing, regulatory acceptance, regulatory relationships and capital markets is a lot. And it takes a long time to prove that as you put someone else's money at risk, you're going to bring it back with interest. So that's a big part of what we do. Another set of relationships you can't vibe code is we have last quarter four-ish hundred thousand active merchants where these transactions took place. Each one of those is a sales conversation, contract negotiation, going live, et cetera. The going live part is going to get a lot faster. So we could now go to a merchant and say, hey, good news. We're going to vibe code the launch together. It'll be a lot quicker. So instead of going live next quarter, we'll go live next week.

• 2:11:08Max Levchin?

  But until we get there, someone still has to decide that this is a good contract and prove that this will be accretive to the merchant. And finally, maybe the most important set of relationships is the consumer one. So we have 26 million active consumers in the last four months. These are people that trusted us that the no fine print thing is real. It took us 15 years to convince people that when we say 0% loan, like the original conversations I had literally with people both in the industry and the man in the street, like, we're going to lend money at no interest so long as the merchants will subsidize the transaction. Like, yeah, sure, no interest, but it's going to be a fine print. It's going to go to 39% APR. Like, no, it really never does, never had, never will. That's part of the core value of this company.

• 2:11:52Max Levchin?

  Takes a little while to convince people that you're not just, you know, I'm not a fruit, I think so. I'm fairly confident in our ability to defend our.

• 2:12:00John Coogan?

  Yeah. Last question for me, I'm interested to know, we're very excited about ads and chat GPT and agentic commerce. Do you have a feeling, not to hold you to something, but I just love like how fast the ramp in agentic commerce and people actually making the decision to purchase in a chat app might be. We, you know, we talked to the folks at Shopify a lot, we're trying to triangulate this. I thought last Black Friday might be a little glimmer of it. It feels like they're still implementing a lot of things. Obviously there's details to iron out, but it feels like certainly this year could be the, the time when we're seeing point one percent, one percent, I don't know, 10% seems sort of high and crazy.

• 2:12:44John Coogan?

  But it's where the future is going, but how do you think about agentic commerce numbers this year?

• 2:12:52Max Levchin?

  Don't hold me to it.

• 2:12:53John Coogan?

  Yeah, I won't.

• 2:12:54Max Levchin?

  The, the curves are all turning vertical.

• 2:12:57John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 2:12:58Max Levchin?

  And so it's hard to say if it's one, if it's one, then it's 10, and if it's 10, it's a lot.

• 2:13:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:03Max Levchin?

  But I think some shopping is going to turn very agentic as in I will tell my.

• 2:13:11John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:12Max Levchin?

  You know, consumer coworker equivalent or what, you know, what you're filling your favorite brand.

• 2:13:16John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:17Max Levchin?

  Go buy me some milk.

• 2:13:18John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:18Max Levchin?

  Like the rest of it just happened, which will be awesome. I will also do that today with Instagram, so.

• 2:13:22John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:23Max Levchin?

  The, I want to buy a cool new espresso machine, which I'm currently shopping for obsessively.

• 2:13:28John Coogan?

  Of course.

• 2:13:29Max Levchin?

  I, I want, I want that experience to be much more interactive because I'm obsessed with espresso. And so it's entertainment is like nerding out and like, ooh, they have a rotary pump.

• 2:13:40John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:40Max Levchin?

  It's not as loud as the vibration one. So I think it's going to become augmented by agents, but it's still going to be like, I'm very much a part of this. And that becomes to blend into like, well, research with Google versus research with Gemini did the same thing.

• 2:13:54John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:13:55Max Levchin?

  Which sort of brings me to, I think there's quite, quite a bit of industry. Pearl clutching around ads and chatbots, oh my god. I think that's the best thing that's going to happen to this industry. Everyone is holding their breath around, on one hand, will AI kill software or software eats software, whatever. It's like, well, will we be able to afford this giant build out so these models can get smarter? Guess what? We make most of the money on the internet, not us, but most of the rest of the internet makes money with ads. And so ads in these single fast growing pieces of the internet wouldn't be such a bad thing for people that need a lot of capital. So I for one, welcome the ads and bots, so long as clearly delineated, ethical considerations, all that stuff.

• 2:14:33John Coogan?

  Of course.

• 2:14:34Max Levchin?

  I think it's coming fast and, you know, I think so far, most people have underpredicted the pace of these changes. So I'm not going to claim that it's going to be 10% by the end of the year, but I want to shock me.

• 2:14:48John Coogan?

  Yeah, that would be sort of my high, my high bound. And it'll be hard to measure because with that espresso machine, people will clearly do a ton of re. I could imagine firing off a deep research report, tell me everything, understand the landscape, how long are the companies? I want to know the company's history, who's the founder, tell me everything. But then also I want to go to the website and also I want to go to the showroom and also, you know, and then maybe I make the purchase after talking to somebody. I walk out of the store and I say, hey, buy that thing, ship it here. Or maybe I do all the research and then I, you know, tell someone else to just purchase it and they go buy it in person because I want it the same day. There's like a million different edge cases, so the number will be hard, but my vibes based analysis is right, right in the same target slot as yours. So.

• 2:15:31Jordi Hays?

  Last question for me, how, what's your buy versus build framework in the context of a firm? There's, you guys are clearly able to take products zero to one internally quite well with the card. But at the same time, it feels like there's so much in the world that's on sale right now.

• 2:15:54Max Levchin?

  You know, M and A wise, we've done a couple of things well and a bunch of things less well. And so we're very, very cautious. So, you know, as the world goes on sale, it's tempting to look at, you know, things that are maybe undervalued, maybe could plug right into the puzzle or have a bill here. Generally speaking, we're super cautious. So for a number of people that run in with like, hey, cool, we can buy this thing now. My answer typically is like, why would we, would we benefit from this? Like, is this, is this better owned by us? Maybe a different version of the same question is.

• 2:16:28Jordi Hays?

  Well, yeah, yeah. Just, just because you might make a fantastic CEO of a company that's on sale, doesn't mean that it wouldn't be massively distracting if you were to try to integrate it and make it a part of the ecosystem.

• 2:16:41Max Levchin?

  Yeah. And, and back to sort of like, some things are super accelerating and some things are exactly as slow or as fast as they've always been. The human relationship part where a new team comes in, you know, like I just bought you, how exactly do we get along now? Like, that's not gonna get any easier. And if anything, it's gonna get, like, there's a lot of CEOs I know who are thinking, it'd be a great time to sell my company. Not because I want to sell my company, but because there's so much opportunity in this AI-enabled world. I want to start another one.

• 2:17:11John Coogan?

  You want to start something new.

• 2:17:12Max Levchin?

  That's actually a terrible thing for the employer.

• 2:17:14John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:17:15Max Levchin?

  The only thing you want is that the typical value of the asset is the team. The team is like, I'm just trying to dump this thing. Like, I'm not sure I want to.

• 2:17:24Jordi Hays?

  Yep.

• 2:17:25John Coogan?

  Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us. Good luck with the search for the ultimate espresso machine. Let us know what you decide. We'll announce it.

• 2:17:33Jordi Hays?

  You should have the, the max, the max's list, the top rated.

• 2:17:37John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 2:17:37Jordi Hays?

  Different machines. Anyways, great to catch up.

• 2:17:40Max Levchin?

  I'll leave you with that. I own two identical Lineum minis.

• 2:17:44John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 2:17:45Max Levchin?

  Just because if one breaks.

• 2:17:46John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 2:17:48John Coogan?

  This is commitment. This is serious. I like that. That's peak performance.

• 2:17:51Speaker 03

  I'm really insane when it comes to.

• 2:17:53John Coogan?

  Well, thank you so much for taking the time. We'll talk to you soon. Have a great weekend.

• 2:17:56Jordi Hays?

  Cheers.

• 2:17:57John Coogan?

  Goodbye. Let me tell you about 11 Labs. Build intelligent, real-time conversational agents. Reimagine human technology interaction with 11 Labs.

• 2:18:06Jordi Hays?

  And we know there was some roughness on the audio there. That is why we're making the TVP.

• 2:18:11John Coogan?

  We're working on them.

• 2:18:12Jordi Hays?

  The pit lane headset.

• 2:18:13John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 2:18:14Jordi Hays?

  We're not going to send mics to people. We are going to send people headsets with the boom mic.

• 2:18:20John Coogan?

  It's going to look like you're in the paddock. It's going to look like you're.

• 2:18:22Jordi Hays?

  Not in the paddock.

• 2:18:23John Coogan?

  No.

• 2:18:24Jordi Hays?

  In the pit lane.

• 2:18:24John Coogan?

  In the pit lane. Yeah, in the pit lane. Sorry.

• 2:18:27Jordi Hays?

  Well, without further ado, I guess we don't have our guest yet.

• 2:18:30John Coogan?

  Let me tell you about cognition. They're the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. And I was looking at.

• 2:18:38Jordi Hays?

  And crushing it in the enterprise.

• 2:18:40John Coogan?

  Crushing in the enterprise. Yes, great. The company's doing fantastically. But Jordan Schneider did an interesting side by side of Devon versus Claude Code, building a RTS, a real-time strategy game. And said, congrats to Scott Wu and Russell Kaplan on the decisive win. And he's vibe coding games, which I'm excited for these to release. I feel like that we're, things are happening so fast and yet I want to play Sholto's game. I want to play more vibe-coded games. All of those Instagram reel ads that show you the fake games that are all clickbait to get you to buy some, you know, game that's ultimately Candy Crush. I want the actual game that looks fun, where you're fighting the zombies or something.

• 2:19:23Jordi Hays?

  Okay, some quick context before TJ joins.

• 2:19:26John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 2:19:26Jordi Hays?

  So he's coming on to talk to us about Trump RX, which launched, I believe, yesterday. And then also this new Wegovy GLP1 pill that was launched and then immediately cloned by him's and hers. Novo Nordisk put out a press release on the illegal mass compounding and deceptive advertising by him's and hers. Q cap said Novo is basically calling him's a corner store drug dealer.

• 2:19:53John Coogan?

  Wait, does Novo not believe that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?

• 2:19:58Jordi Hays?

  No, they think it's disgusting.

• 2:19:59John Coogan?

  Interesting. Okay.

• 2:20:00Jordi Hays?

  Well, Novo Nordisk issued the following statement regarding the announcement by him's and hers, that they will unlawfully mass market an unapproved, inauthentic, and untested knockoff somaglutide pill. The action by him's and hers is illegal mass compounding that poses a significant risk to patient safety.

• 2:20:15John Coogan?

  Those are harsh words.

• 2:20:16Jordi Hays?

  Novo Nordisk will take legal and regulatory action to protect patients, our IP and the integrity of the US gold standard drug approval framework. And Dr. Marty Makary, the commissioner of the FDA, said the FDA will take swift action against companies mass marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they are similar to FDA approved products. The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety, or effectiveness of non-approved drugs.

• 2:20:44John Coogan?

  So Marty has a great book, by the way. You should, you should read it if you want to know more about the FDA strategy. It's a, it's a very fascinating contrarian take on, on healthcare. He, he identifies a bunch of interesting places where for some psychological reason or some sort of structural reason, scientists that had discovered some truth about healthcare or, or medicine were unable to sort of propagate their finding. And he identifies a number of these, the sort of bizarre scenarios. So we'll dig into it quickly. Let me tell you about Sentry. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working. And without further ado, let's bring in TJ Parker.

• 2:21:28Jordi Hays?

  TVP and healthcare czar.

• 2:21:30John Coogan?

  To the TVP and Altria. Welcome to the show. How are you doing?

• 2:21:33TJ Parker?

  I am great. How are you?

• 2:21:35John Coogan?

  I'm good. Complicated day in the news. Where should we start first? What, what stories?

• 2:21:41Jordi Hays?

  Air-cooled Porsches.

• 2:21:42John Coogan?

  Air-cooled Porsches. Are they still cool in the age of AI or am I going to be able to vibe code one?

• 2:21:47TJ Parker?

  I think they're going to be cooler in the age of AI.

• 2:21:50Jordi Hays?

  There we go.

• 2:21:51John Coogan?

  I like it.

• 2:21:52TJ Parker?

  Tracking.

• 2:21:53John Coogan?

  Yeah. What about in healthcare?

• 2:21:55Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, big, big week. Want to talk about, let's just jump straight into the, the Wegovy, Novo Nordisk, him's drama. What, what's been your reaction? How have you been tracking the story up until this week? All that good stuff.

• 2:22:11TJ Parker?

  Yeah, I think maybe to jump back to how we got here, and I think folks are probably pretty familiar with this, but the Hims of the world were obviously compounding the injectable for quite a long time. But the origination of that was that those injectables were in short order, they were on back order, and so they were allowed to compound them as a stopgap for the manufacturers to get sufficient supply.

• 2:22:35John Coogan?

  And that was basically real in the early, early phases of this, right?

• 2:22:39Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, that was important because if someone's overweight and they want to lose weight quickly, being overweight is unhealthy, not good for your lifespan.

• 2:22:49John Coogan?

  And so that's why the FDA is set up in that way, but the question is like, how long does that go on?

• 2:22:53Jordi Hays?

  Basically, Hims got addicted to compounding.

• 2:22:55TJ Parker?

  Yeah, and that was maybe, call it 18 months ago or so, where that was kind of, that peaked. And then the FDA did issue a warning letter to Hims back in the fall when the shortage ended, telling them to stop mass compounding. So they have commented on this before, but their level of enforcement has been lacking. I think the stark difference of what happened yesterday is that the Wegovy pill has a specific technology called SNAK that they actually paid $2 billion for the IP specifically for that technology to allow for you to be able to actually absorb the peptide and have the drug be effective. And Hims explicitly said that they didn't use that technology, instead they're using liposomal

• 2:23:40TJ Parker?

  absorption, which maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but there's certainly no

• 2:23:44Jordi Hays?

  Well, then it's just like insane. It's you're insane. You're selling a drug that you claim works that has no, like, approval testing, right?

• 2:23:55TJ Parker?

  Yeah, there's zero studies, there's zero approvals. So this is where it's super different from the injectables where They weren't changing the formulation, right? It was very similar to the branded drug.

• 2:24:06John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:24:07TJ Parker?

  We can talk about the challenges of IP and a bunch of things, but it's different in the sense that here, there's no evidence that this drug works at all. And so the most likely scenario is they're selling a, you know, a $50 drug that doesn't work, that still has a bunch of side effects because it still has the drug that just doesn't get absorbed through your GI. So it's, it's, it's very different. It's not an IP issue. It's really an efficacy and, and safety issue, which is why I think you saw the FDA come out much faster and a much more explicit way, pretty immediately after the launch yesterday.

• 2:24:37Jordi Hays?

  Why would HIMSS do something that seems completely nonsensical and bad for patients? And bad for...

• 2:24:45John Coogan?

  I have a quote here from them. Compounding is a safe, legal, and long-recognized practice within the American healthcare system. So that's their stance.

• 2:24:54Jordi Hays?

  Okay, but ignoring the fact that they're inventing a new delivery mechanism via liposomal for, and are selling it as a product claiming...

• 2:25:05John Coogan?

  That's why they're getting pushback, yeah.

• 2:25:08TJ Parker?

  Yeah, I mean, I think the situation is you have a $5 billion market cap company where half of their revenue is these compounded GLP-1s, where that market is quickly contracting on them. They're doing a bunch of buybacks. They've invested a ton in incremental CapEx. It's like a recipe for disaster if that revenue starts to fall away. And it feels to me like...

• 2:25:27Jordi Hays?

  And do they think the pill, the pill is just gonna, is the expectation that the pill is gonna effectively eat the injectable market? Because a lot of people would rather take a pill than, you know, have, have to do an injection even if it's once a week?

• 2:25:42TJ Parker?

  Yeah, I think if you look at the archetype of who I believe to be the HIMSS customer, they're buying the injectable because it was the cheapest place to get it. Now you have a branded drug that's half the price of their injectable. Like, I think it's partially the, the route of administration. I think partially that it's just half the price. And so it's, it's hard to imagine that they're not going to have a significant issue with churn and people switching from the injectable. Partially, yeah, because of the, the ease of use, but also just literally half the price, which was their entire value prop.

• 2:26:10Jordi Hays?

  And is Novo is not expecting, are they able to mass produce this already? Like, are they...

• 2:26:15TJ Parker?

  Yeah. They have no shortage issues. They've been ramping up production for quite some time. I think they were quite prepared for the launch. And so you have none of the shortage dynamics. And frankly, like... Pills are exponentially easier to manufacture than their injectable pens specifically, which is where the shortages came from.

• 2:26:32John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:26:33TJ Parker?

  So there's no similar rationale. I think it's also comparatively reasonable that you don't want to force a bunch of patients off the injectable products. So there is like a reasonable safety argument that that has to be like a very thoughtful and calculated wind down. Now, I think they've, they're onboarding new customers, so it doesn't totally hold water compared to the behavior. But in this instance, it feels more like a financial hail mary, given I think what the market dynamics are going to do to them over the next 12 months.

• 2:27:02John Coogan?

  What about the alternative scenario or playbook? Like, I remember Hims as being sort of like a front end to drugs that they didn't compound, and it was a place to get hair loss medication and, and sort of name brand drugs that I felt like just, it was online pharmacy. Like, why doesn't that model work in the age of peptides and GLP-1s? Why can't you just be the, you know, the digital doctor that prescribes, then you go pick it up at your local pharmacy?

• 2:27:31TJ Parker?

  A couple of reasons. And I think if you look at their competitive set, you know, the biggest one being GRO, obviously, that's how they've managed through this, right? They have not remained reliant on compounded drugs as the shortage has gone away, they've ramped up their access points to branded therapies, that's exactly what they're doing and executing. I think when you're in the position of Hims, it's hard to not get addicted to a $250 product with 90% gross margins when, if you're selling access to the branded drug, at most, you're going to make $10 to $15 on a $150 product. And so I think they, to some degree, don't realize the business they're in. Like, in a traditional retailer and distribution business, which is really the business that they're in, they're not a manufacturer.

• 2:28:15TJ Parker?

  That's a scale, low margin business where price, convenience, like, all the things that make Amazon successful make you successful. They have sort of morphed into a manufacturing business without any of the IP, any of the R and D costs, like, any of the things that come along with being a manufacturer. And I think it's an addictive, addicting place to be because the margins are quite a bit better than. And being a retailer.

• 2:28:38John Coogan?

  Yeah, can you explain more about this, the warning letter that the FDA shared addressed to him's and her health in September 9th, 2025, you can find this on FDA.gov. They're saying, it says, "The FDA has observed that your website offers various compounded drugs, including semaglutide, as described alone, that your claims are concerning your compounded semaglutide products are false or misleading." How would a company normally respond to a warning letter from the FDA? It's not, it's not fully shut down, it's not a lawsuit, it's more of a corrective by the FDA, is that correct?

• 2:29:21TJ Parker?

  Yeah, I think historically, in compounding specifically, the FDA has lacked material enforcement. And so in many ways, I think what you're seeing here is that there is a skepticism that they'll actually enforce, and so it's business as usual. Don't take the warning letter seriously.

• 2:29:38John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:29:39TJ Parker?

  I think with that overlay, I think the reason the FDA still sends letters like that is if they do have a material safety issue, which is what has happened with compounding in the past. You had 60 people die of meningitis in 2012.

• 2:29:51John Coogan?

  Yep.

• 2:29:52TJ Parker?

  From a compounding pharmacy doing scale compounding, they have a paper trail of telling them that you are out of compliance. And so, you know, I think this will probably be a different situation. I think one important point is the FDA does not enforce IP. So they're not going to get involved in actual quote unquote IP theft, that's for the courts.

• 2:30:12John Coogan?

  Got it.

• 2:30:13TJ Parker?

  But they do enforce safety and efficacy, which is why I think they address this so much faster because they believe it's an efficacy issue, not solely an IP infringement issue, which would again be left to the courts.

• 2:30:24John Coogan?

  Yeah. What about Walmart? Are they a potential way out of this, you need scale? I don't know how advanced they are, but you know, you have experience with Amazon, Walmart just hit a trillion dollar market cap, it seems like the business is doing well. They were not disrupted, they need more technology. Is there something where a partnership could allow him to sort of go get out of the compounding business and go more to the scaled low margin business, but still be growing?

• 2:30:55TJ Parker?

  Yeah, it feels like just given the reputation that that would be hard to imagine happening. I think they have built obviously a lot of compelling customer experiences. They build really good tech. But I think just given the overhang from these regulatory challenges, it's hard to imagine a large acquirer is going to get comfortable with that kind of retrospective and presumably ongoing liability. Yeah.

• 2:31:18Jordi Hays?

  Switching gears, Trump RX, what's up with that?

• 2:31:24TJ Parker?

  Yeah, I feel like I should take a victory lap here. I think the first time I was on here was to talk about the executive order for Trump RX. And I think my point at that moment in time was that the real thrust of that EO, which was not super clear then, but is how I interpreted it, is that it was an effort to eliminate this discrepancy between super high list prices and the net prices that insurers and PBMs actually pay, right? So for these GLP-1s that have these $1,000 or $1,200 list prices, but in reality, if you're a PBM, you're paying 200 bucks, 300 bucks. And that's exactly what you saw here, where there's a number of branded drugs, which before,

• 2:32:07TJ Parker?

  if you were a consumer, paying out of pocket, you had to pay that high list price. They've gotten the manufacturers to come to the table and offer a consumer-directed net price. So really, if you are paying out of pocket for a bunch of these drugs, you're saving 60, 70% compared to what was available to you a year ago. Now, some of that could just be the GLP-1 market forces, but that wouldn't have touched a number of the products that have moved on to Trump RX. I think, given the selection, it's maybe like 25 actual brands that haven't gone generic that have low net prices that are on there right now. It's not the most exciting thing in the world, but I do think you're going to see manufacturers just start to launch new products at net, and that will completely unwind the value of the current supply chain, middlemen, PBMs, all those things.

• 2:32:51TJ Parker?

  So I think it's net good, but I think it's like the early days of what could materially change how these things go to market and the pricing that's associated with that.

• 2:33:01Jordi Hays?

  So it's not just good marketing for the midterms?

• 2:33:06TJ Parker?

  No, I mean, I think it is good marketing. I think

• 2:33:10TJ Parker?

  everyone has quoted these ridiculous list prices as the actual price. It's been like a pet peeve of mine forever. And they are now quoting much lower kind of list prices. So I think that is going to be perceived as a win for the midterms, but the drugs aren't actually cheaper than like a payer would have paid a year ago, but they are cheaper than a consumer could have gotten access to a year ago. So I think it's net good and I think hopefully a trend that will accelerate and change the pricing dynamics more dramatically.

• 2:33:38John Coogan?

  Can I ask about AI doctors?

• 2:33:40Jordi Hays?

  That's what I was gonna ask about, John. Read my mind.

• 2:33:42John Coogan?

  Same thing. We've talked to a couple of companies that have come on and talked about consumer level AI doctor, doctor in your pocket. You, you know, you got a mole, you take a picture of it, it tells you what it, you know, you say, I feel sick. It'll tell you, go get some blood work done or something. Some of them have partnered with certain states to get real doctors involved. There's a whole bunch of different models. At the same time, they're facing pressure from OpenAI and, you know, they're launching a health product. How do you think that market plays out? What are you optimistic about? How, how much can it actually improve American healthcare? There's always a lot of talk about like, if you just talked, you know, primary care doctor was available more frequently, we'd be way healthier.

• 2:34:24John Coogan?

  And I don't know that there's that many people that are like, well, I never thought to Google, I should sleep, diet and exercise. So now that I can chat GPT and I'm, I'm healthy. But walk me through your whole philosophy on like AI chatbots in consumer healthcare.

• 2:34:40TJ Parker?

  Yeah. I mean, I think first of all, it's obviously goodness, right? I think people are really going to GPTs to get advice on their health. And I think it's something like seven or eight percent of chat GPT's volume is health related, health specific. So clearly that's net good. I think in many ways it replaces people going to Google to do the same thing. It's much more efficient. It's definitely more effective. So that's all good. I think the, my thesis on the end state of that and where it really unlocks a bunch of value is when it is fully aware of all your medical history. And so that's pretty critical. And chat GPT has launched a version of that, though it's pretty light on the actual data integration. And then more specifically-

• 2:35:22Jordi Hays?

  But they acquired, they acquired some company, I think, to help with that, wasn't it? The, the, it was a- There's a company, it wasn't called, it was a, it was a company that was like trying to avert, yeah, Torch. It was the, what was the name of the company they had before? It was not, not Future.

• 2:35:38TJ Parker?

  Forward.

• 2:35:39Jordi Hays?

  Forward Health, yeah.

• 2:35:40TJ Parker?

  Yeah.

• 2:35:41Jordi Hays?

  So clearly they're thinking about all this stuff.

• 2:35:44TJ Parker?

  Yeah, there's a fundamental regulatory framework where if you're a provider, you can access a much broader set of data to deliver care to the consumer. If you're a technology company, they're accessing via this thing called Tefka, or very few providers are contributing data to that. And so there's a lot of nuance to this, but the, the punchline is that if you are purely a technology company, your access to the breadth of data necessary to be useful is much more limited.

• 2:36:10Jordi Hays?

  So you basically need to be a provider that employs actual medical doctors?

• 2:36:17TJ Parker?

  You need to be a provider, actually providing care to that customer, yeah.

• 2:36:21Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, and so, so we had one of these companies, Lotus, on the other day, and if he's in an investor pitch, and people are like, hey, like, AI doctor is cool, but ChatGPT is doing this, Claude's doing this, there's other companies that are, or Claude might, you know, do something like this. There's other companies that are, it's a super competitive space, they're saying, okay, but OpenAI is not going to have doctors on staff, and it's not going to actually be licensed and able to actually deliver.

• 2:36:49TJ Parker?

  Yeah, it doesn't prohibit them from doing interesting things with partners or via MCP or some other approach that can mimic, you know, some of the things that we built at General Medicine, some other folks are building. But in and of themselves, whether it's Claude or ChatGPT or Apple Health, any of these guys, their, their ability to provide similar levels of care is just going to be constrained. I also think that the, probably the more salient point is, I think where this becomes really magic, is where all of these conversations get actually distilled to your provider before your appointment. So instead of having to repeat all the things you've already said, and like go back through your medical history, like, you're all, you sort of show up to the appointment, your provider's been prepped based on everything you've already chatted about, and can actually start to like

• 2:37:32TJ Parker?

  deal with what they might want to do in that appointment. So that's where we've seen it be the most interesting and useful, and I'm sure other folks will end up in a similar spot. But I'd think like the combination of GPT all the way through to the visit, informing the visit and then informing the care is super powerful.

• 2:37:48John Coogan?

  What's the textbook example of like medical history being valuable? Because Maybe I'm just like in a weird spot, but I usually just say like, no, I don't haven't done anything. But like, I don't know, like if you like, I don't know, I actually haven't broken any bones. But like assuming like, I was like, I broke my arm when I was five, like, does that really like increase cancer risk? Like, how are these things actually flowing through? Like, what's the textbook?

• 2:38:10Jordi Hays?

  Well, I think the average American is on prescription medication.

• 2:38:13John Coogan?

  Okay, so they show up and they're like, oh, you're already on this medication.

• 2:38:16Jordi Hays?

  Why did you go on that?

• 2:38:17TJ Parker?

  Yeah, I mean, I'll give you like a tangible example that like Elliot experienced in our GPT, which is he's been having this plantar fasciitis issue on one foot. And I hope he doesn't mind that I'm sharing his PHI. And the GPT was able to-

• 2:38:31John Coogan?

  I think we talked about this on the show, actually.

• 2:38:31TJ Parker?

  Yeah, the GPT was able to decipher that at the same thing on the other foot in like 2006 or something, like from like 20 years ago.

• 2:38:38John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 2:38:38TJ Parker?

  Um, which is where like you just, he didn't even remember having the issue, it was not relevant to him.

• 2:38:43John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 2:38:44TJ Parker?

  Um, and I think there's more like substantive examples where you might've had a series of lab tests over the last five years. Any one of them is not problematic, but the trends that are being exposed when you can see that trend is pretty, you know, compelling.

• 2:38:58John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 2:38:59TJ Parker?

  Um, there's also just like, you can recommend all sorts of screenings based on when you've actually done those screenings and what hasn't, hasn't been done, that kind of thing.

• 2:39:06John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah, no, that makes a lot of sense. Jordan, anything else?

• 2:39:11John Coogan?

  Is it dangerous that OpenAI hooked up BioLab up to GPT-5?

• 2:39:17Jordi Hays?

  We're gonna have the founder of Ginkgo, who they, uh, they partnered with on, on the, on the AI BioLab. But what are your thoughts? Do you want to vibe code some, some, uh?

• 2:39:29John Coogan?

  Some drugs?

• 2:39:30Jordi Hays?

  Some studies?

• 2:39:31TJ Parker?

  Seems like a fun experiment, you know, but what could possibly go wrong?

• 2:39:36John Coogan?

  We'll clip it when it happens, when the world ends, the one final clip.

• 2:39:41Jordi Hays?

  We're like, TJ called it.

• 2:39:43John Coogan?

  TJ called it.

• 2:39:46TJ Parker?

  Big doomer.

• 2:39:47John Coogan?

  Yeah, there will be victory laps if the apocalypse happens, for sure.

• 2:39:50Jordi Hays?

  Uh, last, last question, uh, how have you been processing the, all the EV manufacturers having to basically take these massive impair, or sorry, just car manufacturers in general?

• 2:40:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:40:02Jordi Hays?

  Taking these massive hits. It was Stellantis is down something like 20% after the company announced it's taking a $26 billion hit and writing down their electric vehicle business. Did you, did you predict this as well?

• 2:40:16TJ Parker?

  You know, I'm, I'm still loving my Raptor R, which gets about 11 miles per gallon. So I think you know how I feel about the situation.

• 2:40:23John Coogan?

  There you go. That's great. I'm trying to get Jordy to get one.

• 2:40:27Jordi Hays?

  You're buying your, you're buying your carbon, you're buying your carbon offsets though, right? Of course.

• 2:40:31TJ Parker?

  Yeah, yeah, for sure. Yeah.

• 2:40:33Jordi Hays?

  Thank you.

• 2:40:33John Coogan?

  Awesome. Well, thank you so much for coming on the show.

• 2:40:36Jordi Hays?

  Great, uh, great to catch up.

• 2:40:37John Coogan?

  Great to catch up as always.

• 2:40:38Jordi Hays?

  I'm sure there'll be a lot more here, so we'll have you back on soon.

• 2:40:41TJ Parker?

  Pleasure as always.

• 2:40:42John Coogan?

  Have a good weekend. Let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI, their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. And without further ado.

• 2:40:53Jordi Hays?

  Next.

• 2:40:54John Coogan?

  We're going over to the co-founder and SVP of Field Engineering from Databricks, Arsalan. Welcome to the show. How are you doing?

• 2:41:02Speaker 03

  What's happening? Hey guys, thanks for having me.

• 2:41:05John Coogan?

  Good to see you.

• 2:41:06Speaker 03

  Great to meet you.

• 2:41:06John Coogan?

  First time on the show, I believe. Uh, please introduce yourself. Tell us what you do.

• 2:41:11Speaker 03

  This is when we say, uh, first time, uh, first time tuning in, long time watcher or lurker or something like that.

• 2:41:16John Coogan?

  I appreciate it. We enjoy talking to your co-founder.

• 2:41:19Speaker 03

  Awesome. Well, yeah, guys, um, Arsalan Tavakoli, one of the co-founders to your Databricks.

• 2:41:23John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:41:24Speaker 03

  Um, you know, run what's known as field engineering. So think about anything technical, not in core R and D. So it's about a third of the company, um, roughly give or take. And then, uh, before that, like all the other founders came out of Berkeley. And as my advisor liked to say, I joined the dark side in between. And then I went to a consulting company, McKinsey, spent about four years there before we started about 12.

• 2:41:45Jordi Hays?

  There we go. We love, we love, you know, we love to hear that.

• 2:41:49Jordi Hays?

  Put in your time. We were on a flight the other day and John and I were asking this guy to switch seats with us because we like to, we like to, we, we, some people are surprised, but even after three hours of recording, we still want to keep talking and the guy had a UBS shirt on and John, John was like, "Do you work at UBS?" And he's like, "Yeah." And John goes, "Thank you for your service."

• 2:42:13John Coogan?

  He thought I was making fun of him.

• 2:42:16Jordi Hays?

  "Thank you for your service at McKinsey."

• 2:42:18John Coogan?

  You're gonna thank your bankers, your Swiss bankers specifically. I want your reaction to this Tyler Cowen post. Today will go down as some kind of turning point, somewhat arbitrarily, but it's okay if journalists and historians have to present things in that manner. The post of this is 11 a.m. on February 5th. That of course was the day that both Codex 5.3 and Opus 4.6 launched. It feels like he's talking about software engineering, automated software engineering, AI agents, sort of everything coming to a head. How have you been processing this week? Does it feel like there's a turning point? Is this all part of some smooth curve? What's been your view on the ground?

• 2:42:56Speaker 03

  Look, I think, I've lost track now. Based on those definitions, I think we've had like 3,000 watershed moments in the past year that everybody said is like the turning point.

• 2:43:08Jordi Hays?

  More than, yeah, more than one, way more than one.

• 2:43:10John Coogan?

  That's why we have three hours of content every day. It works perfectly for us.

• 2:43:13Speaker 03

  I feel like every day I tune into X and somebody's like, "This is the day. This is it."

• 2:43:18John Coogan?

  The singularity is here. It's over. We're back.

• 2:43:20Speaker 03

  Look, I mean, I think it's more of a smoother curve, right, as we go through. And clearly every day, I think it's a combination of the technology's getting better, but I think a lot of it right now, what holds people back, what they can do, is less the technology, but it's more people learning how to use it, how to deploy it, all the things around it to put value. Like, that's gonna be the long tail. I think we're not even close to harnessing the technology that we have today, much less saying, "Hey, it got a little bit better. Now everything's gonna change." At least from what we're seeing.

• 2:43:49John Coogan?

  Yeah. So talk about your forward deployed engineers, whatever you call them, like implementation, how you like to work with companies. And then I want to compare and understand what it might look like at the labs as they sort of dip their toe into the FDE model.

• 2:44:04Speaker 03

  Yeah, look, I think, um, so I think that there's two things. A lot of places when they talk about forward deployed engineers, so this is the cool term right now, I guess, is this concept that says, go to ask people, what is it that you want? What's the outcome that you want to drive? You want to do, you know, revenue forecast optimization? You want to do demand forecasting and then I'll build something for you. The problem is many of the organizations just can't leave the talk about that are kind of like, okay, I'll build something custom for you. Um, I'll get it fast, but then the hard part is, is that scalable? Is it open? How does that work? So Databricks is probably a little bit different than the rest of them because we've got an actual platform and product that's used by over 20,000 people. But I think right now, when you look at it in the AI world, what works for us at least is,

• 2:44:49Speaker 03

  um, we go in and some organizations right now are saying, help me with a specific problem. Like I want to do, you know, let me get my data in order, which is important for AI, or let me kind of do a migration, or let me set this up. And then we have the same set of somebody says, um, come help me like transform like Fox new, if you know Fox, Cletus, the sports app that they have, that you can ask questions like that one, they were like,

• 2:45:11Jordi Hays?

  Paul at Fox is a good buddy. I don't know.

• 2:45:15Speaker 03

  So he's like, come build it soup to nuts for that. And that was one that we did everything end to end and deliver something that works that they want. So we span the gamut from helping you work with products to kind of actually delivering outcomes. We do both.

• 2:45:27John Coogan?

  Okay. And then, uh, best practices, pretend I'm a CEO of AI Lab, who will remain on a nameless, and I'm trying to hire 700, a couple thousand, uh, consulting type, forward deployed, sales, engineering roles. Uh, what are best practices? How fast can you actually spin someone up to become a, you know, an effective forward deployed engineer? What's, what are the pitfalls?

• 2:45:53Speaker 03

  Yeah. Um, lots of questions embedded in there. So, um, look, I think first and foremost, what you're looking for today for people is they need to do two things. Uh, one, they actually have to be able to build hands on. I think you end up in the solution engineer space, getting a lot of what I call like the slide where demos like, hey, I can, I'm a walking dictionary. I can tell you about things. I can build a deck. Um, it just doesn't really cut it anymore. So one, There's much more than what people say is come show me rapidly prototype. So they have to be able to build and they have to be able to use AI tools to build. Otherwise, they're going to be slow. The second thing is you can't just go get engineers. They have to be able to talk to customers because like the most important thing is if I go walk to your basically CEO or CIO, I have to be able to say, what's your business problem?

• 2:46:37Speaker 03

  Understand why it matters and decompose that into technical pieces. So you need people who have both of those. So you have to screen from it. And it's different than what I would call the traditional solution engineering interviews are. In terms of how fast to get somebody ramped up. Look, you're hiring smart people. Generally, to get familiar with all the tools, we'd say three months is fast. Six months is when they're operating at full steam. It doesn't mean that you can't drop them in front of customers, you know, in the first couple of weeks. But that's the amount of time that they get to like, what are the most common problems? What's the most efficient way? How do I navigate an organization? And you can hire a lot, but absorbing too many people too fast just means you're also going to candidly degrade culture and skill set.

• 2:47:20John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:47:23John Coogan?

  We were just talking to Doug Loflin about how he's using Claude Code. He's vibe coding all these things. And a lot of what he was describing were sort of like one-off data analyses or smaller projects that could sort of run locally, be compressed like spreadsheet level. Certainly not, you know, big data cross, you know, like data bricks level infrastructure required. But I'm wondering if you see a world where an individual would vibe code something that's so big and processing so much data that the agent or the individual vibe coder is actually pulling data bricks off the shelf. Like, do we go to a world like that? I've had ideas for vibe coding projects that have been like, yeah, sure.

• 2:48:09John Coogan?

  I'd love a personal assistant that read the entire internet every day. But that seems like not on the table right now. But are we moving to a future where that's possible?

• 2:48:18Speaker 03

  Uh, yeah, so two things. I think one we are, but second, like I sometimes say, uh, from a Databricks perspective, I wish I could walk in, you know, in like Men in Black where they have that button that causes people to forget.

• 2:48:28John Coogan?

  Sure, sure, sure. Yeah.

• 2:48:29Speaker 03

  I think that there is this vision of Databricks of, hey, it's really, really good if you have a bunch of data and stuff like that.

• 2:48:35John Coogan?

  Oh, interesting.

• 2:48:35Speaker 03

  But, but actually, like, a bunch of our users today, what's really valuable for your use cases, even if you say you want to work for a spreadsheet, you're like, I don't keep that. Who keeps anything on their local laptop anymore, right? It's like, I work in an organization. I just want a place where I can access all the data, big or small, but it's governed, it's high quality. So actually, a lot of the people inside of Databricks use, I mean, call Genie, right? Because you can get asked for it, is mainly like, can I get a world where I can do exactly what you said? I can quickly provide code what I need.

• 2:49:04John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:49:04Speaker 03

  Um, small amounts of data, but it's governed, I can visualize it, I can iterate on it. So that's the first thing I put. I think what you start seeing is every, everything that you start with for like any project, it starts small. Great, I want my data. Then your next thing is, oh, but it would be really cool if I could merge it with this. And it would be really cool if it could do, so, as you get it to work, it naturally balloons into something that both leverages more data, is much more computational, much more comprehensive. So you very quickly end up in a world where you've outstripped the, can I just do it on my laptop, even for the average user?

• 2:49:37John Coogan?

  Yeah. We were, uh, we were talking to Sam Allman yesterday, we were about different bottlenecks, and he was saying that, data was a bottleneck for a while, at least like a rumored, perceived bottleneck. Uh, it really hasn't seemed a bottleneck progress in any meaningful way. Uh, but I'm wondering if you see, uh, if you look at the growth of the data market, or data is the new oil, just, is there a boom in, in the scale? Or, or importance of data with the NeoLab boom, there's more and more companies that are training different models. It feels like, there's both more data being collected than ever, but then also more data being generated than ever. So, can you just talk about zooming out? Like, what is the, what is the growth of just data look like in the US economy these days?

• 2:50:21Speaker 03

  Look, I think the growth of data is significant, right? I mean, there's no question about that. And look, you said data is the new oil. I think, one, you've got to define, you've got to separate out the world of the consumer world, which I think about where many, where many people's familiarity with AI is, right? I want to ask a question, help me understand, you know, is this a cold or an allergy? Or plan my travel vacation? And that's the, I need the whole corpus of the web. And that people, that amount of data is kind of finite, if that makes sense. And new ones, people are generating new ones through AI. But that's one. I think that there's a separate question of why you said most people focus on data. In the enterprise world, it usually goes the following. I need AI. I have to pick a model. Let me pick which model. Is it Opus 4.6?

• 2:51:05Speaker 03

  Is it the new, basically, GPT model? Is it Gemini, et cetera? Great, I started crap. I now have to figure out how to deploy this. And that's a lot about security, evaluations, governance. Great, now I did this and my accuracy is 60%. 60% is kind of crappy accuracy. How do I get to 100%?

• 2:51:22John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:51:22Speaker 03

  The answer is, you need to have much better data. So almost everything comes back to, you know, especially in enterprise, lots of data spread out in a bunch of places. How do you actually get it together, know what you have, make sure it's high quality and relevant and recent? Because that's the other thing that's happening. Data that you have from six months ago may no longer be valid right now. So how do you make, tell the system what's valid, what's recent? That's where we spend a lot of time on. And I think enterprises spend a lot of time on figuring out, like, how do we actually make these agents work? And it's a different problem than it is for, like, general consumer search.

• 2:51:56John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 2:51:57Jordi Hays?

  What is, what's your software buying framework these days? What do you?

• 2:52:02Speaker 03

  What do you mean?

• 2:52:03Jordi Hays?

  Like, what do you decide, like, what, when you're evaluating, hey, there's a job to be done? Or should we, should we go and find a vendor that can do this? Should we do it ourselves? How do you, what's, what's your line?

• 2:52:14Speaker 03

  Yeah, look, I know that the cool thing is to say this following. It's like, guys, why would we buy software anymore? Like, you can just vibe code everything. I think anybody who says that generally is not in the business of actually using software in production for most of it. Like, it's like, build is easy. Maintaining and sustaining it is hard. I think the short answer is, in a world, if I can, I'd much rather buy than build. Right? Like, that's just the reality of it. The, the problem, though, is...

• 2:52:45Speaker 03

  You need, you have such unique needs right now. And so if I look at it and see that the gap between what I can get off the shelf and what I need is really huge, then I have to look at, do I really want to depend on another vendor? For kind of being able to, like, how business critical is it for me? So as an example, much of the things that we're doing to overhaul field engineering at Databricks to say, how do we use AI to accelerate it? There's nothing off the shelf that gives us what we need there, right? If there's a piece, I'll use it as a component, but we have to go build it. Cause for me, it's like, I'm iterating really, really fast to figure out what the job to be done is, how to deliver it. So we have our own development team. But on other things like my CRM or something like that, that is not something that if I can help it, I'm looking to build internally.

• 2:53:26Speaker 03

  Like, I'm happy to use something externally, given that I imagine my needs are similar to many other ones. And there should be things that could meet that needs pretty quickly.

• 2:53:34John Coogan?

  Yeah. How big is AI agent adoption broadly? I, I want to know the details of the high level of the 2026 state of AI agents. And specifically, like, how much of this is like, yes, they check the box, we're using agents, but it's just a test? Or it's very narrow, or it's the one vibe coding intern that built some fun workflow that's like, yeah, it's a bot, it replies. It's agentic, but it's not the core business. Talk to me about the rollout and adoption of AI agents in real enterprises, real businesses.

• 2:54:05Speaker 03

  Yeah. And I know I'm supposed to give like a party line in the pop of the thing, but look, I think you can look at that report that you cited talks about something like 95% of people still have a hard time getting it in production or at least getting value out of it the way that they wanted. I, I think you have still an element of people who are like beating their chest. You go to like, I have a thousand agents out and I'm like, okay, how much, how many people use them? And they're like, why does that matter? I was like, why does anything else matter? Right?

• 2:54:32Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, same thing as like bragging, you know, CEO bragging about headcount. And it's like, wait, what's your revenue per employee? They're like 30 grand. You're like, okay, maybe, maybe you're focusing on the wrong thing.

• 2:54:44Speaker 03

  Well, look, I, I look, so I think that there is, everybody we talk to is trying to, and there's some statistics you saw in there that makes sense. Like, most people are no longer doing like, hey, let me get a chatbot. It's like multi-agent orchestration, right? Like they're using multiple things. Second, Nobody is wedded to models anymore. I think like seventy seven percent of our customers use multiple models as well together. And I think that the most popular use case is, you know, beyond internal use case, something called like market intelligence. So like, how do I figure out what my customers are doing? What's the next best action I should take and the like? I do think it's still early. Like, most people, like, it's rare to see somebody say, I have a lot of agents in production really effectively. As I mentioned, the most, the place where

• 2:55:26Speaker 03

  we spend a lot of time on is, how do you govern it and get security? How do you get really, really high quality out of it? How do you balance cost and quality? And that's where like, our whole offering around agent bricks is mainly around, how do you actually get this thing in production? And so, early days, we're seeing, we're seeing at least people turn from, I spun up a chat GPT interface, I have AI to like, what's the ROI I can drive from it and realizing, what are the blocking factors? Data, or some of the things I talked about to get there.

• 2:55:54Jordi Hays?

  Given, given your experience at McKinsey, there's been some news recently that Anthropic's working with, I believe Accenture, OpenAI is hiring consultants internally. Obviously, the big consulting firms want to get in on the action. They've been doing a good job making money on generative AI, maybe making more profit than a lot of companies. But when you, when you think about swarms of consultants going out into the world to unlock the power of agents, like, what are you going to be looking for to see kind of just their success?

• 2:56:31Speaker 03

  Okay. One, I think we've gone through these iterations before. And in general, one, I, I'm hard pressed to believe that every enterprise is going to all of a sudden have an army of their own really, really effective vibe coders, right, that are going to build everything themselves. I think that there's still going to be the dependence on external parties to help make something real. I do think that there is a element that the SI firms right now are trying to figure out, how do they reinvent themselves? A non-trivial number of what it was before was.

• 2:57:03Speaker 03

  How do I do some more, let's say a little bit more of a commoditized task?

• 2:57:07John Coogan?

  Sorry, quickly, SI is software integrated?

• 2:57:09Speaker 03

  Oh, sorry. System integrator. Sorry. Like, what do you think about the Accentures, the TCS, the Cognizance and the stuff?

• 2:57:15John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 2:57:15Speaker 03

  Um, you know, so it's like, how do I throw a lot of people to do it? I think the expectation from people now is going to be great. I'm going to hire you. But in the element of AI, I expect you to be able to do things faster. And I also expect to be able to get out of more, uh, out of each of the individuals. So, one, go build applications for me. Two, do it faster. And three, you know, your cost, your economics should be better. So I think that there's going to be a push on doing things like that. But otherwise, we're still going to need, um, worlds of folks. They're also trying to figure out how do they expand their, like, teams with, like, many, many more agents that can work faster. So it's more of a shifting the model in economics, but you will still need consulting organizations to help.

• 2:57:57John Coogan?

  Well, thank you so much for taking the time. Jordy, do you have anything else?

• 2:57:59Jordi Hays?

  Uh, great to meet you. Come back, come back on more this year. The

• 2:58:03John Coogan?

  Really helpful content.

• 2:58:04Jordi Hays?

  It's, uh, yeah, you guys have such insane visibility into how, uh, into the at real diffusion. So it's, uh,

• 2:58:10Speaker 03

  Well, we can just wait a week. We can wait a week.

• 2:58:12Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, exactly.

• 2:58:13John Coogan?

  The new day. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 2:58:14Speaker 03

  The new day is going to change in a week.

• 2:58:16John Coogan?

  Changing points.

• 2:58:16Jordi Hays?

  Watershed, watershed moment.

• 2:58:18John Coogan?

  Every hour.

• 2:58:19Jordi Hays?

  Every hour of every day.

• 2:58:20John Coogan?

  We'll, we'll chat with you about it. Have a great rest of your day.

• 2:58:23Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, great to meet you. Thanks for coming on.

• 2:58:24John Coogan?

  We'll talk to you soon.

• 2:58:25Speaker 03

  Thank you.

• 2:58:26John Coogan?

  Let me tell you about Labelbox. RL environments, voice, robotics, evals, and expert human data. Labelbox is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams. We got a bunch of breaking news to close the show out with.

• 2:58:39Jordi Hays?

  Breaking news. Hobbit-inspired startup becomes first new bank. Greenlighted by Trump 2.0. One of the most insane headlines.

• 2:58:49Jordi Hays?

  That one is for Trevor Palmer and the whole team.

• 2:58:53John Coogan?

  Erebor founder Palmer Luckey was one of the tech industry's early Trump supporters, and he's known for pension for Hawaiian shirts. They're really focusing on Palmer's, like, non-banking relationships here.

• 2:59:05Jordi Hays?

  Palmer is a banker now, everyone.

• 2:59:06John Coogan?

  Uh, Erebor will cater to startups and high net worth individuals on Friday. Uh, it became the first newly created bank to receive a national charter under the second Trump administration, launching with $635 million in capital. It says it will occupy a hole in the market left by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The bank is the brainchild of Palmer Lucky, one of the tech industry's earliest supporters of Donald Trump. Its founders include, its funders include Lux Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, 8VC, a lot Gill and Founders Fund has lined up a handful of potential defense and industrial tech-focused clients, including ones with ties to Thiel and other investors who say they are eager to do business with a bank that understands their needs.

• 2:59:47Jordi Hays?

  "You can think of us like a farmer's bank for tech," said Lucky, who will serve on Airborne's board but will not have an operating role. I think most farmer's banks won't claim they are the best bankers in the world, but they do understand farmers.

• 3:00:02John Coogan?

  Chris Powers in here. He said, "Is a local bank going to lend against you?" "No," he said. "If you have less than $10 million in revenue and you're struggling to secure a loan from a traditional bank, investor expectations are high." Airborne was valued at about $2 billion in a funding round last year, over seven times its book value, according to investor Pitch Deck. A subsequent round valued Airborne at $4 billion. So, off to the races.

• 3:00:28Jordi Hays?

  The timeline, the pace from the team getting this done, obviously there's, you know, the regulatory side, but there's actually the execution to get here. I remember talking to Trevor last year, Trevor over at Airborne, and he was telling me the timeline and I was like, "Yeah, that's, sounds great. Like, let's see, let's see how it actually turns out." And that, you know, incredible pace, so.

• 3:00:51John Coogan?

  Yeah, we'll have to have Palmer on the show to talk more about it.

• 3:00:54Jordi Hays?

  Real Bank. Real Bank.

• 3:00:55John Coogan?

  We have another, we have another gong hit for Jennifer Garner's Once Upon a Farm.

• 3:01:01Jordi Hays?

  There it is.

• 3:01:02John Coogan?

  IPO'd today. Shares popped 17% in public market debut. It's on the New York Stock Exchange, baby.

• 3:01:09Jordi Hays?

  There we go.

• 3:01:12Jordi Hays?

  Interesting. I wonder how they priced it.

• 3:01:16John Coogan?

  Yes. So, they raised almost $200 million, 197.9, at a valuation of $724 million. And the company's IPO comes as shoppers and policymakers alike have pushed back on ultra-processed foods, particularly when consumed by children. So, it's on the New York Stock Exchange now under the ticker OFRM. Cavu Venture Partners, Consumer Partners, Cavu Consumer Partners was a big backer of this company and... Probably has done quite well in this IPO and also techno chief had a little bit of an update here, super random, but Cavu Consumer Partners just raised a new $325 million fund for better.

• 3:01:57Jordi Hays?

  Good timing. Hit it again.

• 3:01:59John Coogan?

  So congratulations. You know, Ro Hano's over there. He's been investing in the category, but worked in vitamin water. He's an absolute dog and an industry legend and we're happy to see success in this industry. Certainly AI resistant. It feels like something Tyler won't get out of bed for. He's, he's knocking it, but you know, certainly opportunity.

• 3:02:25Jordi Hays?

  No, I mean, in a post scarcity world, every, every child in the world could be enjoying once.

• 3:02:32John Coogan?

  Fun day at the New York Stock Exchange for everyone.

• 3:02:35Jordi Hays?

  Do we have anything else?

• 3:02:37John Coogan?

  Um, not, not too much. There's a bunch of stuff. I think we went through most of this stuff. There's, there's new data from Ramp, R. Karazin shares the fastest growing companies on Ramp. Infrastructure means open source is likely ticking up. AI dev tools are not going away and AEO is the future of marketing. He calls that tri profound. So Ramp's top software vendors, the fastest growing, we're anthropic lovable cursor, 11 labs, super base, repli. Interesting cursor has been seeing like some, there's a bunch of flood on the timeline. People are saying, I don't need it anymore, but it's still growing according to Ramp. Little bit of a narrative violation there. And then trending breakout growth relative to size, paper for software design, cerebrus

• 3:03:22John Coogan?

  for AI infrastructure, juice box for recruiting AI, runware for AI infrastructure, clarify for AI infrastructure, novita AI for AI infrastructure, crusoe for AI infrastructure, modal for AI infrastructure, and then peak AI for SEO and AEO intelligence and also profound. So this is from the Ramp Economics Lab, ramp.com slash data. You can go check it out for yourself. We love chatting with Ara about what he's seeing.

• 3:03:47Jordi Hays?

  Well, it was a brutal week for tech, but at least we had an opportunity to put on the white suits.

• 3:03:55John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 3:03:56Jordi Hays?

  I can't wait for Sunday.

• 3:03:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 3:03:59Jordi Hays?

  To see the ads.

• 3:04:00John Coogan?

  Yes, it's going to be a great one. The Super Bowl is on Sunday.

• 3:04:02Jordi Hays?

  John and I will be there.

• 3:04:03John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 3:04:04Jordi Hays?

  With, with, with Ramp and some other friends and we will be glued to our phones.

• 3:04:09John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 3:04:10Jordi Hays?

  In the back of the, of the, of the box, just. Just watching the ads.

• 3:04:15John Coogan?

  Yes.

• 3:04:15Jordi Hays?

  We hope you guys.

• 3:04:17John Coogan?

  Plant the bomb. In other news, after 12 years at the Wall Street Journal, Joanna Stern is launching her own consumer tech media company. Congratulations to Joanna Stern. She hasn't shared exactly what it is yet, but there is a link. You can go sign up. Thisismynextthing.com. Good name. I like it. She has been writing for the Wall Street Journal for quite a long time. I've always enjoyed her consumer tech coverage. And of course, we'll have her on the show when she launches. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Sign up for our newsletter, tbn.com.

• 3:04:48Jordi Hays?

  We love you.

• 3:04:48John Coogan?

  Goodbye.

• 3:04:52Speaker 03

  Nice work, brothers. I'll see you on the next one.