Gaza Peace Plan: Do Hamas & Israel Play Ball? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

In this episode, Dee, Mick Mulroy, and Andy Milburn discuss the recent developments in the Gaza peace plan, analyzing its implications for both Israel and Hamas. They explore the potential for a ceasefire, the role of international pressure, and the internal dynamics within both Israeli and Palestinian leadership. The conversation also touches on broader geopolitical issues, including NATO's response to Russian aggression and the future of Ukraine, as well as energy dependencies in Europe. The episode concludes with reflections on the uncertain future of Hamas leadership and the potential outcomes of the peace negotiations. Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Subscribe to our new newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join New merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️ https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.com Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social 00:00 Introduction and Overview of the Gaza Peace Plan 06:05 Analysis of the Peace Plan's Viability 12:53 The Role of Regional Powers and International Support 18:46 The Impact of Public Opinion on the Peace Process 24:51 Military Strategies and NATO's Response to Russian Aggression 29:56 Putin's Endgame and the Future of the Conflict 36:42 Energy Dependencies and Alternatives for Europe 41:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio" Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

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• 1:40Speaker 05

  Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here with Mick Mulroy. You guys all know him. I want you guys to do me a favor before we jump into it. Check out his new podcast, The Pub and the Porch: Applied Stoicism. It's on all the podcast platforms, Apple, Spotify. You can check it out there. You just search it. I'm also going to put a link in the description. So, check it out. It's a cool podcast. Comes out every Monday morning, I think, because I've been listening to it. So, check it out. We're going to be joined shortly by Andy Milburn, Andy Reginald Milburn, full name. Very unionist name, too. But that's all right. We don't hold it against him.

• 2:21Speaker 05

  Lot happening as usual. The big news, obviously, the 20-point peace plan in Gaza was accepted by Hamas. They put out a statement and then just a little bit of a timeline and then Trump came out and made a statement saying this is great. Let's do it. Kind of putting Israel and Bibi Netanyahu's back against the wall. So now we have Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkoff heading to Egypt to hammer out the technical details. And it looks like there's signs of like a ceasefire. We'll see if Israel actually go editorializing. We'll see if Israel actually plays ball because they've been bombing Gaza since the announcement. Mick, what are you tracking with this?

• 3:06Speaker 06

  So I start the pointing out, you know, well done by the US team to put this together. 20-point plan, very comprehensive. There is certainly elements in it for both sides. By sides, I mean, obviously, the people of Israel, the people, the Palestinians in Gaza, and for the region, right? It stabilizes if it goes all the way down every point in this plan, it'll go a long way to stabilizing the Middle East. So well done. And then well played, to be frank, being public about it, pushing Prime Minister Netanyahu into accepting. Did

• 3:49Speaker 06

  he want to accept it? You know, the reporting is not so much, but, you know, he invited him to the White House and essentially laid out the plan, which is beneficial to the, like I said, to Israel, right? So it not only would end the war and bring back the hostages, which obviously needs to happen and never should have been an issue in the first place, but we are where we are. But it also talks about Hamas disarming and then, you know,

• 4:17Speaker 06

  Uh disassembling, if you will, uh and not being part of a future uh Gaza where that would be made up mostly of technocrats, technocrats that focus on uh the people in Gaza and, you know, building up their economy, their education system, healthcare system, things that they should be worried about and not, not uh constantly trying to figure out how to attack their neighbor, uh in this case, Israel. So uh big plus uh for the people uh in Israel as well. And then it also talks about uh continuing the normalization process between Israel and a lot of uh countries in the region. So the Abraham Accords, expanding that. There's, I think, things that are very beneficial and uh more importantly than what I think,

• 5:02Speaker 06

  uh the polls that I've seen, about seventy percent of the population of Israel supports this twenty-point plan. So yeah, I think there was pressure, obviously, from the United States, President Trump, but also growing pressure, as you can see, a hundred, over a hundred thousand uh in Tel Aviv uh last night, um essentially saying, "Take the deal, take the deal." So there's a lot of uh pressure internally, but obviously a lot of pressure externally. Uh not just on Israel, but on Hamas. I mean, Hamas does not seem to care at all about the plight of the Palestinian people. They brought this to them. But ultimately, for their benefit, they can either not take the deal.

• 5:43Speaker 06

  Um Israel will then likely stay uh in perpetuity as an occupying force in Gaza and hunt them down one by one. Uh the far right of Netanyahu's cabinet will likely push for annexation of parts of the West Bank. And after Hamas turns down this deal that literally the entire world supports, uh they probably will push and be successful in getting Netanyahu to do that. So uh and then if they do take the deal, they get to, you know, get amnesty. So I, I certainly understand some of the commentators are saying there's not a whole lot in it for Hamas. Well, there's even less in it for Hamas if they don't take the deal, and the way I view it.

• 6:26Speaker 06

  Uh and so, you know, today's the day. We want, we're gonna wanna see hostages start being released. Um he, he, as you pointed out, uh Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the end of offensive operations in Gaza.

• 6:43Speaker 06

  Uh, but the complication of that is if you're attacked, right, then you're going to respond. That's defensive, but it's looks a whole lot like offensive. Hamas is is is gonna now start planning uh to release hostages. Just like in the past exchange, that comes with a pretty, pretty substantial release of Palestinian prisoners. And 250 of the and then thousands are going to be released, but 250 were serving life sentences for killing Israel. It's a pretty, it's a pretty substantial uh compromise on the side of Israel. But anyway, we'll find out today. Hey, welcome aboard, Andy. Uh, uh, whether, whether we're going ahead with this.

• 7:27Speaker 06

  I think everybody should hope that we are.

• 7:31Speaker 05

  Yeah, Andy, I was just, we just went over the timeline and Mick gave his initial thoughts about like what it looks like. Uh, what's your take on the whole Gaza peace plan and um?

• 7:43Speaker 05

  Will it happen?

• 7:45Speaker 07

  Yeah, good, uh, good to see you both and uh, hello, everyone. Can you hear me okay, by the way? I just wanted to get a contact.

• 7:51Speaker 05

  Perfect, silky, smooth.

• 7:53Speaker 07

  Oh, really? Yeah, well, my internet has been like crap. So uh, that's hence my late arrival. Uh, so I want to be the optimist on this. And I think I can say, even though I didn't hear Mick from the beginning, I can say I agree with whatever he said, because I normally do. And uh, no, I mean, no, I mean, I absolutely, you know, this is, this is the best option that has come along. Uh, frankly, it's, it's something that I don't think any of us could have imagined a month ago. So while it is imperfect, and I'll get into that in a moment, it is far better than anything that we have seen to date. So we should welcome that.

• 8:39Speaker 07

  My, my, I have a couple of concerns. One is

• 8:44Speaker 07

  One is of course that Hamas has not actually agreed to a couple of the terms they're in, right? And is unlikely to because Hamas is not incentivized to give up all prospects of control of the Gaza Strip or having a say in the Gaza Strip, right? Remember, we're talking about Hamas's leadership. That's number one. Number two, I think that, of course, I'm a cynic about Netanyahu too. You know, I think, yes, while right now he is on the path to agreement, he is being increasingly squeezed.

• 9:25Speaker 07

  While the majority of the Israeli public, I think polls show over 70% of the Israeli public support this peace plan, his coalition rests, of course, on those who do not. He's aware of that, and I think as the opposition within his coalition gets more and more strident, he's going to look for ways to wiggle out. And that concerns me. And so you've got at either end of the spectrum Hamas and Netanyahu, who certainly, who perhaps aren't cold heartedly in support of this thing. But, and of course, the devil's in the details, right?

• 10:07Speaker 07

  You know, the Palestinian, the role that the Palestinian Authority is going to play right now, from Israeli perspective, they want them not to play a role at all in the intermediate period until they have passed some reforms and the responsibility for sovereignty over this trip or the authority for running this trip will then pass to them supposedly. But it's a little vague as to who's going to take control in the meantime. You know, a group of Palestinian technocrats under this, what is it called? The Council for Peace with Blair and Trump? Board of Peace, no? The Peace Board, yes, but the...

• 10:48Speaker 06

  Yeah, I think President Trump's the chairman, which seems a little...

• 10:53Speaker 07

  Actually making it happen, you know, governing the Strip in the interim period is going to be a tough sell. The last piece that I think...

• 11:06Speaker 07

  Is a little bit concerning is the fact that so right now you've got you've got kind of lukewarm buy in or you've got buy in from Arab nations, right? Although they are, I think it's fair to say concerned about the some of the details, how it's going to run. You've got Saudi Arabia, who in the last year or two that has become increasingly

• 11:35Speaker 07

  firm about the outcome of any peace process. You know, Saudi Arabia has not backed down, none of the Arab nations have, but Saudi Arabia has in particular has not backed down from the prospects of there being a two-state solution and has not backed down for its support of the Palestinian Authority. And I think that they are, you know, the governor of Saudi Arabia right now is is probably saying, okay, well, we'll see how this plays out because at least it's better. It's a better thing for the Palestinian people. But but sooner or later, there's going to be, there's going to be some kind of collision caused between the policies of the current Israeli government, which is kind of over

• 12:18Speaker 07

  my dead body. Will there be a Palestinian state Netanyahu has said that Smolrich and Ben Gavir have said that and the prospects of everyone and everyone else who who do support, I'm sorry, the views, the perspective of everyone else who do support the prospects for a two-state solution.

• 12:38Speaker 06

  That's right. And we are, I think we're at a fork in the road, right? So if it goes down the 20-point plan, then there is still a possibility of a viable Palestinian state. In fact, it tends to lead toward that. If we do not, and either Hamas foolishly, in my opinion, rejects this offer. Or to Andy's point, Netanyahu figures out a way to get out of it. Uh, it's going down the opposite direction. So that'll probably in increase the likelihood of annexation of parts to West Bank of apartment occupation Augusta. So from the Palestinian people's perspective, or those that support the Palestinian people toward getting a state of their own.

• 13:22Speaker 06

  There's a clear, there's a clear route that you would want to go down and there's a clear route you wouldn't want to go down. So hopefully all pressure, and I think, you know, Qatar and Egypt are putting this pressure uh, as well as every other country in the Gulf, save Iran.

• 13:38Speaker 06

  Are pushing Hamas to accept it. Uh, the question is whether whether they will uh, do it, or they hand uh, Prime Minister Netanyahu

• 13:49Speaker 06

  an off ramp. So if they say no, and if they don't release the hostage, they are essentially dooming the Palestinian people, I think, to the wills of Smoltrich and Ben Gavir that Andy just talked about. So they have to make the decision today and we'll see, but it's a, it's a clear, it's a clear distinction between which route we go down. And again, good on the folks that put this together. I think it was uh, it was well considered and they obviously got support of basically the world for it. Now it's going to come down to the two

• 14:28Speaker 06

  combatants in this bull conflict.

• 14:33Speaker 07

  And it's, it, it's good news. It's potentially good news for the Palestinian people who, you know, have undergone unbelievable suffering and, and you know, it's, it's okay to say that without people thinking you're taking a political stance. It's okay to say that without people thinking you're against Israel. As Mika said on the show before, there's no reason for children to starve. And yet children are starving. And if you, you know, it, that's it absolutely has happened, even in the Israeli papers they're reporting even now, which is rare. Uh, that, uh, that you know, yesterday, another, uh, another uh, handful, another few kids

• 15:12Speaker 07

  died of, of starvation. I mean, there's absolutely no

• 15:17Speaker 07

  For that to happen and anyone, anyone who justifies that on any grounds is quite simply they're out on a very extraordinary limb and they're trying to find a way to do that. I, you know, and I'm

• 15:36Speaker 07

  quite, um, quite not, not shocked, but just again astounded by, by the fact that you, you cannot say things like that without being labeled as being left wing or anti-Israel, Semitic or yeah, it's, um,

• 16:00Speaker 05

  Well, it's interesting you brought that up because there's a Washington Post poll that came out yesterday, uh, among Jewish Americans.

• 16:08Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 16:08Speaker 05

  Sixty one percent saying Israel has committed war crimes and almost forty percent around thirty nine and change.

• 16:14Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 16:15Speaker 05

  The country's guilty of genocide against Palestinians.

• 16:18Speaker 07

  I think it's worth absolutely remembering that, um, that Jewish Americans who, you know, and I don't want to be disturbed, but they tend to be among the, the intellect of this country, right? I mean, let's just, let's be honest. I mean, they, they tend to be a, to represent an extraordinarily successful component of this country's population also tend to vote central, left center, um, Democrat and, uh, and, and to be, uh, liberal in that, in that views.

• 16:50Speaker 05

  And by the way,

• 16:51Speaker 06

  I don't think you could call them anti-Semitic, right?

• 16:55Speaker 06

  That's gonna be a, that's gonna be a challenge for anybody to call. I mean,

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• 20:28Speaker 07

  And it's really interesting how, you know, I mean, I try and stay off social media now, but how in American popular vernacular, the term liberal, you know, we've, is used as a term of abuse. I mean, liberal, essentially, what does it mean? You know, it means that a, to me, it means that a country has a responsibility to look after its least able citizens, right?

• 20:55Speaker 06

  Yes.

• 20:57Speaker 07

  And I mean, that's, it simply comes down to that. It means that those who are least able to take care of themselves are looked after by the government. And that is seen as, it's incredible by some people as being an evil or weak or, no, that is, that's one of the values that I fought for this country for. I mean, it's, you know, whether you-

• 21:19Speaker 06

  Well, we are a liberal democracy-

• 21:21Speaker 07

  Absolutely.

• 21:22Speaker 06

  -in the old sense, school of liberal, right?

• 21:24Speaker 07

  And that's-

• 21:24Speaker 06

  Not the politically liberal, but the-

• 21:25Speaker 07

  Right.

• 21:26Speaker 06

  We are a democracy that protects the minority, right?

• 21:29Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 21:30Speaker 05

  I think that triggers some people because they don't understand the nuance of the word.

• 21:35Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 21:36Speaker 05

  So I think they, they hear that and they're like, what?

• 21:38Speaker 07

  I, again-

• 21:39Speaker 05

  No, we're not, you know?

• 21:40Speaker 07

  You know, sadly, the American population, an extremely large percentage of the American population, it's a question of education. Again, this is an acceptable comment, but I, I think it's a lack of education. It's a, the, that most Americans grow up with a very snapshot view of history. They don't understand the underlying concepts that have built this country into what it is. You know, they don't, they don't understand concepts like, I don't know, I mean, the Marshall Plan, the aftermath of the Second World War. You know, when you look at, when, when you look at the fact that all these, this ridiculous absurdity about-

• 22:25Speaker 07

  Hey, why are we spending all this money on Ukraine? I know, don't worry, I'm not gonna go on this banging this drum again. But, but seriously, I mean, you look at the fact, the whole basis of our, of, of United States' involvement in Europe after the Second World War, by the way, after the US had lost almost half a million soldiers in the Second World War, all right, for, for those values, but you know, the basis of US involvement in the Second World War was, hey, we'll front up the money, we're gonna make this an extraordinary economic investment towards stability in Europe, you guys are gonna be the front line, but we will, we will provide the, the investment. Uh, oh, I mean, we, we did agree, yes, of course, to bolster security with our own military,

• 23:10Speaker 07

  but my point is that the understanding was that we wouldn't, that it wasn't gonna be our civilians who went in harm's way. That was the implicit understanding, that because of the nature of potential conflict in Europe, the war would be fought in Europe, but the US would fund that and stand on the side of freedom and liberal democracy and all these things. And somehow, we've forgotten that, and now it becomes a bargaining tool about who's spending too much, so much money on what. But again, money wasn't a, we, money somehow wasn't important to people during the 20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan, when we were wasting not just money, but our own blood and treasure. And it's a very, it's an extraordinarily convoluted view of the world.

• 23:53Speaker 05

  And like, the money during the 20 years, um, is astronomical, right? It's in the trillions of dollars, if, between Afghanistan and Iraq. Completely wasted, right? Plus, owned by the Taliban, for Christ's sake. Yeah, thousands of guys who have died, many, many who died, you know, so, doing it.

• 24:13Speaker 07

  I mean, take Iraq, you know, estimated 100,000, there

• 24:19Speaker 07

  Objective estimates, a hundred thousand, when you factor in everyone died in the civil war, et cetera, et cetera, since two thousand and three, almost a hundred thousand deaths, Iraqi deaths, whether or not, you know, Americans care about that. And then, how many US troops did we lose? Six, seven thousand, somewhere around there, right?

• 24:39Speaker 05

  I think it's around six thousand.

• 24:41Speaker 07

  Untold numbers of wounded, because we had a very, very high wounded to killed ratio. And then untold numbers of those who are permanently jacked up with, with, with issues that stem not just from PTSD, the thought of the fact that they sacrificed all of this for nothing, for a country that in the end didn't care. And Afghanistan, of course, is exactly the same story, at least in Iraq. There are prospects of something emerging from this that is, that is relatively positive. But I think no one, how, how anyone then turns around and says the few billion dollars that we spent on Ukraine was a waste of money is, okay? I know that's not what you're asking about, D L. Shut up.

• 25:25Speaker 05

  No, I know. It just becomes a political wedge issue, kind of, you know, and it, and it takes a mind of its own. And like, people start, stop thinking with any kind of logic and reason with it. It's nominal in terms of the amount of money we spend on anything. None of our guys are dying in Ukraine, none of our soldiers.

• 25:45Speaker 05

  It's a good ROI. If you're gonna look at it as black and white as possible and like, take away the human element, obviously, of war, it's horrible, but,

• 25:55Speaker 05

  you know, a lot's happened in the last three years, right? Go ahead, Mick, sorry.

• 25:59Speaker 06

  No, I was just gonna say, I don't know what happened, but it does look like the White House has shifted their view on the war in Ukraine.

• 26:05Speaker 05

  That too, yeah.

• 26:05Speaker 06

  To one the way, you know, we gotta win, which is great, you know, take it, take it when you can get it, because it's the right answer, right? Ukraine needs to win, and we need them to win, and Europe needs them to win, not, not just because we should support democracies around the world, which we should, but it's in our own interest to sure that Russia doesn't expand this to a country that then brings in the United States, in other words, a NATO country. So, we need them to lose, and we need to do everything we can. To make that happen, which includes secondary sanctions that cuts off their funding. I do think, you know, the president made a good point. Europe shouldn't be buying oil or gas from Russia, any, no country. I think there's still like six.

• 26:49Speaker 06

  I know we're talking mostly about Gaza today, but I agree with, with Andy. The, the amount of money that we spent there is in our own interest, right? And it's reduced our, I think, most dangerous adversary, maybe not the most substantial, but the most dangerous adversary being Russia and their willingness to invade another country for no reason. Their military might is going down substantially, right? So that means relative to them, our military might goes up. So it's actually a direct, very well spent amount of money to make sure that our more dangerous adversary is less, has less capacity. And that's what's happened.

• 27:32Speaker 06

  And we should look at the stats now to see how many troops they've lost, you know, go down armored personnel carriers, tanks, artillery, aircraft. I mean, it's substantial. They, the, the, uh, the idea that they were some, you know, superpower has been burst entirely. And I, they know it. That's why they constantly talk about nuclear, right? They, they want to remind everybody they have thousands of nuclear weapons because everybody can see that their conventional military is not here as capable as our analysts to give them credit. So we need to make sure we bury them.

• 28:08Speaker 05

  I got a question about what's going on in Europe now with the, all these drone incursions and stuff like that. Obviously we saw France a few days back, board a ship, um, a tanker, one of the shadow fleet tankers of Russia that was, they were thinking, they were also suspecting that it was a launch pad for some drones.

• 28:27Speaker 05

  What's stopping NATO countries that are on the border, Poland, Estonia, obviously they're tiny, Lithuania, Latvia and the rest, Norway, uh, from like running combat patrols with their radars on, seeing like, you know? Is it like money? Is that like why they don't want to run sorties and stuff like, like what's stopping them from like doing combat patrols, obviously outside of like civilian airspace and stuff like that? Keep it away from like the commercial stuff. Uh, what's, what's stopping them?

• 28:58Speaker 07

  When Estonia's case, they don't have their own air force.

• 29:01Speaker 05

  Sure.

• 29:01Speaker 07

  They're dependent on NATO aircraft and NATO aircraft are their own NATO ROE, right? And as we talked about.

• 29:11Speaker 07

  Because there's kind of a dual track when it comes to Russian interceptions. In other words, it has to go up to.

• 29:23Speaker 07

  The question of whether to open fire has to go up the NATO chain, but it has to go to that. Whoever owns the aircraft, their national chain too. And so you're gonna, you know, and the rate at which things happen in the air and air combat or potential air combat is such that by the time a decision is made, the incident is over. But the Baltic countries cannot, I mean, they. They could only do something more aggressive by vote from NATO. Now, as far as Poland's concerned, I mean, Poland has. Poland has been doing aggressive things in any case, as you know, a lot of it underneath

• 30:03Speaker 07

  the surface, Polish special operations forces, Polish intelligence services, Polish, you know, there's they. I mean, they're being circumspect, but they're not necessarily holding back. I mean, probably the least effective thing they could do is start flying their aircraft over the border with Ukraine. It's not going to accomplish anything. It's no, no way near the front and Russian aircraft don't come that way anyway. What they could do, which we've discussed here, is start shooting down drones, drones and missiles over Ukrainian territory. And for that to happen for Poland or Estonia to that happen, they could do that under their own rules of engagement. They don't have to consult NATO.

• 30:47Speaker 07

  I mean, I would recommend that they do that. I think Poland probably will do that. Poland's already issued a warning that that's exactly what they're going to do.

• 30:55Speaker 05

  I mean, there's no way Russia's flying a couple MiGs into Poland.

• 31:01Speaker 05

  No.

• 31:01Speaker 06

  I think they made it clear they're gonna shoot them down.

• 31:03Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah, so if they do, it's unreal.

• 31:06Speaker 06

  Well, once you make the make the threat, you gotta carry.

• 31:08Speaker 07

  But I mean, I'm talking about shooting down manned and unmanned aircraft that are heading towards.

• 31:13Speaker 05

  Right, that might be within 10 miles of the Polish border.

• 31:16Speaker 07

  Yeah, now unmanned, that's, that's a pretty, that, you know, the levels of decision are such that unmanned, the Estonians and the Poles, I can see them making that call to shoot down drones that are heading that way. Manned aircraft, of course, another matter. I can see the Poles doing that. Frankly, you know, if, but I mean, probably at a point, I, I think they would be unlikely to do it until their airspace was violated.

• 31:45Speaker 07

  But for the most part, in order to do that, the Russians aren't going to do that probably with manned aircraft, because they're gonna run the risk from Ukrainian air defenses to, to get that in there. But it could easily happen in, in, it'll continue to happen with Estonia, no doubt about it.

• 32:04Speaker 06

  But the whole strategic point of what Russia claims was the reason for going into Ukraine is completely backfired, right? So they're worried about the expansion of NATO, NATO expanded. They're worried about, you know, a revitalized European, you know, national defense. You're seeing it, man. They're spending a lot of money. I mean, if you look at the rearm Europe 2030 plan, it's so close to a trillion dollars by 2030.

• 32:33Speaker 06

  There's an immediate injection that's called the SAFE plan of, I think, 100 billion dollars, right? So it's, it's mobilization, modernization and integration. It's happening right now in Europe. And there, I think they are preparing like this is gonna be in a, there's gonna be an expansion. There's gonna be a war between the countries in Europe and Russia. That's the only way to look at it. Hopefully, it's not the case. That could be catastrophic for everybody. But if you put your head in the sand, like, quite frankly, a lot of European countries did for decades, you inspire the bully, right? You don't, you don't placate them. The only way to, to get Russia to stand down is to, for them, believe that there is zero potential for winning.

• 33:19Speaker 06

  are rebuilding the Soviet empire.

• 33:21Speaker 05

  What do you think? Uh, this is like a more of like a broader strategy, like, and it's speculative, but um, Putin's like, what the fuck is he thinking? I mean, at this point, three and a half years in,

• 33:35Speaker 05

  a million plus casualties, obviously, that's deaths and people who are injured. Plus, like their entire, you know, tank inventory, a ton of stuff completely, you know, just wiped out almost.

• 33:48Speaker 05

  What's his?

• 33:48Speaker 06

  How many people fled the country?

• 33:50Speaker 05

  Right.

• 33:50Speaker 06

  It's like a whole generation of males that either dead or gone.

• 33:53Speaker 05

  Brain drain in Russia is like probably insane for sure. I mean, I'm sure Ukraine too had the same issue. Right? When the war first started, there was like a few, you know, a few million refugees that like, took a left.

• 34:08Speaker 05

  What's his, what's his end goal? Like, I'm trying to understand. He's not going to take all over all of Ukraine, clearly.

• 34:14Speaker 06

  Nope.

• 34:15Speaker 07

  Well, I think that I think the mistake is to look at Putin as though through the eyes of a Western liberal democracy or leader of a Western liberal democracy is

• 34:28Speaker 07

  the casualties mean nothing to him. And absolutely nothing. And as long as he can isolate the Russian public from from reacting to those casualties. So far, the Russian government has been pretty successful in that. I mean, you talk about the brain drain and that has been a significant issue. The economy being in the toilet is a significant issue. But growing disillusionment with the war, first of all, it's hard to gauge how strong that is, that how strong that is. Secondly, you know, even criticizing the war gets a five-year jail term. And from Putin's aspect, the worst thing that could happen is peace without

• 35:10Speaker 07

  without being able to show significant gains and holding on simply to what he has gained right now isn't going to be enough to justify that scale of casualties. Uh, you know, he's going to one. Or go on or holding on to the ground that has been discussed so far in in terms of ceasefire, he's going to want a significant chunk, not, he's going to want all of Donbass, all of it, right, to include Krematorsk, which hasn't been taken, and Pokrovsk, I mean, people don't realize that the, that that there's still a third of Donbass that is still in Ukrainian hands, a third, maybe a little bit more, to include, you know, two significant cities, and he's going to want a chunk in the south, all right, the

• 35:55Speaker 07

  coastal, the coastal strip is Zaporizhzhya, he's going to want all of that, and that's just going to be a no-go for Ukrainians, that's, you know, if he takes all of Donbass, and he's given Donbass, Ukrainians have, have fought hard to retain what they have, that is going to be, that's going to be almost a quarter of Ukraine. And there's, now, he won't stop short of that, I'm pretty sure, because if he just accepts what he has now, and there's a front and conflict, then, I mean, he, he will accept it if he has no other choice, he will accept it if he really thinks that his only other

• 36:34Speaker 07

  option is defeat, in other words, if he thinks that the United States will pile in and provide Tomahawk missiles to the Ukrainians and everything else, and open the floodgates, then that is the only way that he will accept the current terms of the peace plan, I think that's the bottom line, otherwise, he's going to keep pushing, and, and, and he's aware there's a, there's a ground swell of opinion actually, behind him in that, because Russians, for instance, Russian soldiers, or people who have lost family members on the front, don't want him to compromise. So, he's, he's in a position, he either keeps swimming, or he sinks.

• 37:16Speaker 06

  Putin's formal warfare is exactly the way Tolstoy called warfare, organized murder. It's only gonna get worse. I think Tolstoy actually fought the Crimean War. But it's only gonna get worse. He's just gonna intensify his direct attack against civilians, terrorizing those using more and more significant weapons. He can't lose now because, as Andy just said, he's lost so much in order to gain so little that he has to justify this, if not in the immediate, for history, the way he views himself. So we have to be ready for that. We have to outlast them.

• 37:58Speaker 06

  We have to help the Ukrainians in every possible way to not only defend themselves, but to win. But Putin has no restrictions on how he conducts warfare. So he will, if need be, increase his direct attacks against civilian targets, potentially with more significant weapon systems.

• 38:22Speaker 05

  Mick, you mentioned before a little... Yeah, yeah. You mentioned before about European nations that still buy energy from Russia. Is there a real alternative to Russian energy for these countries?

• 38:38Speaker 06

  I'm not an energy expert. I've certainly heard that the Gulfies can, particularly Qatar, could fill in the gap, but let's... I looked it up a little while ago. I think even France still buys gas from, like, Belgium, the Netherlands, and then some eastern... Yeah, you're gonna have to come up with an alternative, and the US can, I think, help. But they need to start working in that direction if they intend to actually cut off the spigot of support, funding support for the war, right?

• 39:16Speaker 05

  So if there are countries...

• 39:18Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 39:18Speaker 05

  I'm sorry. If there are countries that can fill the gap... Why isn't that like more of a pressing thing to try and, uh, you know, hamstring, hamstring, uh, the Russians?

• 39:32Speaker 06

  It should be. I think there's a plan for like a oil pipeline that actually comes from the Middle East up through Syria and then into Europe, a gas pipeline. Um, again, I'm not an energy expert, but

• 39:43Speaker 05

  That's probably years away, right?

• 39:45Speaker 06

  Yeah, yeah. So they would have to be done, you know, old fashioned way with

• 39:49Speaker 05

  Tankers.

• 39:50Speaker 06

  Tankers, et cetera. But if there's a way to do it, even if it's more expensive, I mean, think about how much money they are to, to defend themselves against Russia when they could, you know, spend more money on energy, uh, to cut off the Russian, uh, funding for their war. So I think we should impose the, uh, sanctioning Russia act. I don't know why.

• 40:12Speaker 06

  And, and Europe needs to do everything they can to get off of Russian oil. It, it is like Senator, the late Senator McCain said, an army with a gas station. That's it. They have a one-track economy. So if we can cut that off, uh, we could go a long way into this conflict.

• 40:30Speaker 05

  Melbourne?

• 40:31Speaker 07

  Yeah, of course. India and China are massive users of Russian oil. I think with Europe, it's, um, I could be wrong, but I think it's liquefied national, uh, natural gas, right?

• 40:40Speaker 06

  I think you're right.

• 40:41Speaker 07

  So it's, uh, and, and I think that the problem is that

• 40:48Speaker 07

  that over the, the last decade, Europe has shifted to relying more and more on LNG for, uh, I mean, for its fuel needs. I'm talking about, for instance, heating. And so, uh, it's more than the last decade, last two decades. So finding an alternate source of LNG is, is the problem. And again, I'm on a little bit of thin ice here. I haven't, haven't researched this, but to next point about, uh, pipeline, uh,

• 41:22Speaker 07

  originating in the Middle East. And I can't, but, but I, I think that the war, that the, the fact that Syria is now potentially at peace, uh, improves the prospects of there being a, a a ground pipeline of, uh, LNG and an alternate source for European countries.

• 41:49Speaker 06

  Someone, one of our, one of our many educated listeners, audience, I'm sure will chime in with a, with a better response, but.

• 42:03Speaker 05

  I got one more question, going back to the peace deal with Gaza, with Hamas and, and Israel. What happens, I mean supposedly it's for like amnesty, right? The guy, like the Hamas guys get amnesty? I mean, they know that there's, there's no such thing, right? I mean, I feel like Mossad's gonna be.

• 42:25Speaker 05

  It, you know, if they go to Qatar or they go somewhere else to, you know, live in retirement. Hamas, uh, Israel's gonna do what Israel does, right? They have to know that.

• 42:37Speaker 06

  Well, I mean, if they, if they lay down their arms and they get not only amnesty, but safe passage to another country. I mean, you just saw the agreement that the US signed with Qatar.

• 42:50Speaker 05

  Sure.

• 42:50Speaker 06

  It's pretty, it's pretty, it's an elevated, you know, major non-NATO ally status. It's almost equivalent of Article Five type for NATO, uh, which says basically don't strike here. And now you said Mossad, they could do things that would be clandestine covert. Uh, yeah, it's possibility, but the, the, the alternative is that the IDF stays in Gaza and not send down one at a time. So they have a better chance if they, uh, go to another country or maybe even Iran, I don't know.

• 43:21Speaker 06

  I don't care too much about, uh, the future of any Hamas member, but, um, it really is a crossroad. So you could take this, which would be beneficial to Palestinians if you claim to care about them. And you probably have a better chance of survival if you care about yourself. Uh, or you could take the other path where I think it's inevitable that they will hunt you down in Gaza, uh, eventually. So, and you will likely permanently end any kind of potential for a Palestinian state.

• 43:51Speaker 09

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

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  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

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  One of the best guys that I dated, he made a point to memorize all my food allergies.

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• 45:20Speaker 13

  Andy?

• 45:22Speaker 07

  Yeah, I think, well, first of all, I think that a lot of the Hamas, most of the Hamas leadership is already, you know, we've gone through several layers since 7 October of all of those that were, had decision-making authority or planning-making authority for the most part have been already killed with exception. You know, the political leadership in Qatar has escaped unscathed. I think, you know, to me, the law of this is for the rank and file, but the problem is, the Hamas members who are, who have been fighting, for instance, now have the prospect of putting their weapons away and escaping with their

• 46:06Speaker 07

  lives. I think that's probably where the law lies. But they're not the ones who make the decisions, of course. That's one of the potential weaknesses with this plan.

• 46:17Speaker 07

  I mean, there are a lot of weaknesses. I think that, you know, they, I think, I, here's what I think is a positive, really positive aspect of, okay, first of all, US government, right, announcing that this is the plan that the administration backs and publishing it, that's huge. The fact that it is really public by all polls, supported, as I said, by over 70%, and the fact that the Palestinian people support it, although I'd say the Palestinian people unfortunately have very little say in these things. But all of these things collectively do matter and are indicators that, you know, this thing has a, has a least of fighting chance of working. The other thing that gives me some encouragement is that there is a

• 47:02Speaker 07

  kind of a safety clause in there in case Hamas does not agree and Hamas leadership does not agree to certain things whereby the Palestinian population supposedly, we'll see if it's, you know, we see if the IDF is can, can do this, they haven't proven to be very competent at running population control, but supposedly there will be safe areas into which humanitarian aid continues to flow that innocent members of the Palestinian population can escape to and live in while Hamas continues to battle it out with the IDF.

• 47:41Speaker 05

  Make anything? I mean.

• 47:44Speaker 06

  Well, I think we covered it all, man. I have to jump to.

• 47:47Speaker 05

  Right. Uh, do, yeah, do us a favor. Like and subscribe. If you're listening to us on audio, subscribe there. Like it there. Check out Mick's new podcast, The Pub on the Porch. Applied Stoicism. It's a good one. Coming, it comes out Monday mornings. I'm a listener. I'll have the links in the description. Andy Milburn, his book, When the Tepes Gathers, that link is in the description as well. And if you want to find these guys on social media, those links are in the description. And of course, patreon.com/the Team House to get ad-free audio, video for both Izon and the Team House. I mean, guys, that's a killer deal, honestly.

• 48:29Speaker 05

  Anything else? There's a ton, but it's all right. We'll hit it next week. What do you got, Andy? Tell me.

• 48:33Speaker 07

  Thirty-eight years ago today, I was standing on the yellow footprints at Paris Island.

• 48:40Speaker 05

  Wow.

• 48:41Speaker 07

  Footprints. Thirty-eight years.

• 48:45Speaker 05

  Thirty-eight years, huh? You're old.

• 48:48Speaker 07

  Thank you for that.

• 48:49Speaker 05

  I was born thirty-nine years ago.

• 48:52Speaker 07

  Yeah.

• 48:54Speaker 07

  I don't know what to add to that, except.

• 48:58Speaker 05

  All right, guys. Thank you, as usual.

• 49:00Speaker 07

  All right. All of this, everyone. Take care. See you next week.

• 49:03Speaker 05

  Take care. See you next week.

• 49:07Jack Murphy?

  Hey, guys. I want to tell all of you today about a new newsletter that we're launching that encompasses both the Team House Podcast, the Eyes On Podcast, and the High Side News Outlet, which I run with Sean Naylor. The newsletter is going to be once a week. It's going to come into your inbox, and you're going to get the most current podcasts on Eyes On and the Team House and whatever's topical or current on the High Side. So it's another way for us to get the information out to you, as social media algorithms are pretty iffy, and you never really know what you're going to get. So this is a once-a-week email. It'll slide into your inbox, and it will have, you know, the greatest hits of that week. It's really good, Andy. I'm checking it out.

• 49:50Jack Murphy?

  The website for it is teamhospodcast.kit.com/join. Teamhospodcast.kit.com/join. Go there, and you enter into your email list, or you enter your email into the little thing on the website, and you're good to go. And that'll be it. So we really appreciate your support, and hope you'll consider signing up.

• 50:15Jack Murphy?

  The link will also be down in the description, if you're looking for it there. And that's teamhospodcast.kit, K-I-T, Kilo, India, Tango.

• 50:26Speaker 09

  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the Food Allergy Podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

• 50:40Speaker 10

  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

• 50:51Speaker 09

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  So join us and hear their stories and more, because living with food allergies isn't just about what you can't eat. It's about still having your seat at the table. Brought to you by Genentech and Novartis. Listen to At the Table, the food allergy podcast, on America's number one podcast network, iHeart. Follow At the Table and start listening on the free iHeart Radio app today.

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  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

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  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

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  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

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  Hi, I'm Jenna Oshkowitz. You might know me from Glee. This is At the Table, the food allergy podcast, a show about food, connection, and what it really looks like to live with food allergies. Each episode, we hear stories from real people like Daniel.

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  People would always think I was lactose intolerant, so I just kind of shortened my explanation to I'm deathly allergic, in a big way that defined a lot of my childhood.

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• 59:37Speaker 16

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