Apex Josh Allen, the Goofy NFC North, Week 2 Picks, and Bill’s Breakup Letter to the Clippers | With Tom Pelissero and Joe House

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Tom Pelissero to react to the Bills defeating the Lions in a Week 2 'TNF' matchup. Then, Joe House joins to listen to Bill’s letter to the Clippers, answer some mailbag questions, and make their Ringer 107 picks for Week 2. (0:00) Intro (1:07) Lions-Bills reactions and more with Tom Pelissero (42:57) Bill’s letter to the Clippers (51:18) Mailbag (01:07:43) Ringer 107 picks Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Tom Pelissero and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Chris Wohlers This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Create a Personalized Price Plan® today. https://www.statefarm.com/lp/football/ The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

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• 0:39Bill Simmons?

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• 1:41Bill Simmons?

  Bill Simmons Podcast, we are live on Netflix Thursday night on the tail end of Lions-Bills. Tom Pelissero is here. He joined The Ringer very recently. He's back in the United States. He launched a new newsletter called The Sweep and you can find him on Ringer NFL Show as well. So Thursday night, impossible schedule spot for the Lions. They're coming off an overtime game against New Orleans, 70 minutes, basically. Then they have to go here, they have to open the Buffalo Stadium, they have secondary injuries. And everybody who follows shit like this is like, this game's going over, this game's going over, the over's climbing, the over goes low 50s, we're in the mid 50s by the time the game starts.

• 2:25Bill Simmons?

  We end up 41-31. I wish it was always this easy with gambling, Tom. I guess would be my starter here. I wish we could just look at these games and go, this is definitely what's gonna happen. But what was your big takeaway watching this one tonight?

• 2:38Speaker 01

  Man, I think I texted you before the game, Bills score 40 plus. It's one of those games. It's one of those games that you just looked at it, they're totally decimated in the secondary. Branch and Joseph are on pup. DJ Reed's banged up, obviously Terryon Arnold's long gone. I thought it was gonna be DJ Moore running circles around those guys. He gets hurt and they still put up 41 points, just throwing the ball to Dalton Kincaid and running with James Cook. They look like an absolute force right out of the gate here.

• 3:09Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna start with Josh Allen, you might've heard of him.

• 3:13Bill Simmons?

  Realize this, I mean, he's, so he had another, I talked about this, I did a mailbag this week, somebody's sending a question about people who have had two running touchdowns and two throwing touchdowns in the same game. And this, tonight was his 10th and the next guy on the list had like four. So he's like, can we just, yeah, can we name this after Josh Allen and just call it, oh, he got a Josh Allen? And he's done it in both games. He's the most fantasy points scored in the first two weeks of a season since 2000, he's over 80. He's halfway to Emmitt Smith's career rushing touchdowns record. He's, I think at 83, Emmitt at 164, he's only, only 30 years old. And looks like he's on a mission. And the thing that my takeaway watching him Sunday and then today, and I've always felt

• 3:57Bill Simmons?

  like, I felt like he was the best quarterback in the league. I feel like he's clearly the best player in the league now. And do you think that's, like, if there's an argument against that, who is the argument that it's somebody else? Because it just feels like he's peaking even for him and I don't know who's in his class anymore.

• 4:15Speaker 01

  I mean, there's some unique athletes, but nobody plays the game like Josh Allen. And nobody does it consistently as productive as Josh Allen. Like, I mean, Lamar's won two MVPs and in those seasons, he's done like totally ridiculous stuff, both running and passing the football. I'm just always struck watching Josh play because there's no other quarterback who you're just that afraid is going to run you over and also then can pull the ball and throw. When he, it was early in the game and he's scrambling, I think it was on a third down tonight, and he gives like the really hard pump fake while running to his right. And you see the linebackers, DBs just stop and then they're like, oh crap, now we gotta try to chase the guy, we have no prayer.

• 4:58Speaker 01

  He just, he can hurt you in so many different ways. There's a lot of good quarterbacks right now, but like, if you've seen Joe Burrow barreling down on you inside the five yard line, like, you like your chances. Yeah, against Joe Burrow, with Josh Allen, it's like, do I even bother trying to get in his way or should I just become shrapnel here?

• 5:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, cuz he's the only offensive player who you could say is a one man show. So then if you're comparing the defensive players, Garrett would have been the one people would have compared him to until this year, like, oh, Garrett's like that on defense. Like, you need two guys to block him and all that. But Garrett's hurt right now, he's gonna, you know, he might have a bum knee for all we know. So when I look at him compared to all the other guys, we just watch week to week, it just, it, it feels like everything is lined up for him. And I was thinking last week, you know, they, Houston drops the game winning interception in that game, right? Near the end, second down, he just throws a pick, Lassiter drops it, next play touchdown. But maybe it's just, that's the kind of stuff that happens when it's your year, you know?

• 6:01Bill Simmons?

  These things start lining up, then you catch Detroit in week two, coming off an overtime game with the Ravens. And you just, like, these things start adding up and it just, that's how it becomes your year.

• 6:12Speaker 01

  The schedule is still tough upcoming for the Bills if you look at it, but I was sitting there watching that game and they've scored 77 points through two games. They put 36 on the Texans, who if you polled people about who's the number one defense, would've gotten a lot of votes and they were the number one defense last year. First play of the game tonight, and the Lions again, like, I mean, Kelvin Shepard's in a really tough spot, he's trying to scheme up, I got no DBs, I've got one pass rusher, like, how in the world am I doing this? First play of the game, what do they do? They have the corner blitz, Josh boots right into it. 90% of quarterbacks, like, that gets batted down. Josh just sits there and like changes his arm angle and throws it underneath him for a quick completion.

• 6:54Speaker 01

  It's just all the different ways that he can beat you. With Joe Brady taking over and you heard Al and Kirk talking about it on the broadcast extensively tonight, is, you know, it's like when Tony Dungy was, you know, building in Tampa, then John Gruden came in and won. Is it just that, I think it's more, I think it's simpler than that. I think it's Joe Brady being an offensive guy. Sean McDermott's a really, really good football coach and he'll be coaching somewhere in 2027. But maybe Joe, just from his standpoint, it feels like their answer to, gosh, will our defense hold up is fuck it, don't let the defense on the field. We're gonna keep throwing it late in the game, we're gonna keep scoring points on you, we're gonna do whatever it takes just to win this game ourselves, which when you have

• 7:38Speaker 01

  maybe the best player on the planet, is probably the way you should play.

• 7:42Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they gave up 31 points and 26 first downs last week. This week, they gave up 31 points, 24 first downs. Maybe that's just what they're gonna be. It's not like Houston is a lights out offense. So they'll just try to outscore everybody, I don't know. I think if you're talking about AFC favorites, I need to see a lot more Kansas City and I didn't think Mahomes played that well last week and I just have questions. But they certainly are a little, little more interesting than maybe I thought they would be a week ago. Baltimore already has had two pretty major wide receiver injuries. One is gonna last longer than the other one, but it was basically the two guys they were counting on to be explosive. I'm not sold on the Bengals yet.

• 8:26Bill Simmons?

  The Patriots 0-1 with a suddenly weirdly big game against Pittsburgh this weekend. So you'd probably feel the best about Buffalo in that, if, if you, you know, it's two weeks, but if you were betting on anyone, you'd bet on them.

• 8:39Speaker 01

  Well, I mean, it's hard based on what we just saw the past two weeks. I mean, these are two teams that you talk about as, you know, their least playoff contenders, if not Super Bowl contenders. And you put it on them at least offensively. I mean, I give Detroit credit for not just completely folding when they're down three touchdowns right away and the crowd's going nuts. They're, they're a good team and they got Dan Campbell's personality and they're gonna fight back and be physical. It was just that three and out they had after they, they cut it and they got the ball back that took like 12 seconds, it was like, okay, that was your one window to try to get after these guys? To the, to the point about the AFC, I, I thought going into the season, the AFC was just wide open, more so than it has been in past years, just because you didn't have that one team that you're like, they're totally complete, like the Chiefs were, you know, for

• 9:23Speaker 01

  a good stretch there where they went to three straight Super Bowls. I, I don't know if what Kansas City did last week is replicable over a 17 game season plus playoffs. Kenneth Walker in his career has never been that high volume of a guy and they didn't pass the ball well, they didn't get the ball to Rashi Rice. I think Travis Kelsey didn't have a target till the second quarter. So we'll see what they end up being. The Bengals got off to a good start, but they weren't perfect in that game. Jamar Chase didn't play well last week. Now they're going down to Houston. Joe Burrow's got a, you know, a little bit of a back issue, but I fully anticipate him playing. I still feel like it's open, but the Bills made a statement two times in five days and they looked virtually unstoppable offensively.

• 10:02Bill Simmons?

  Plus 380 on FanDuel, they're the favorite. Baltimore's plus 430, Chiefs plus 650, third.

• 10:10Bill Simmons?

  Texans and Bengals nine to one. The Texans to me seem to be the uh, that's the overreaction in the wrong direction. Cause I feel like they have to be. People, people got a little freaked out by Sunday and them giving up all the points they gave up. But it's week one. What the, the people you talk to in the league, what are they saying about this whole how we don't have a preseason anymore and we're not allowed to hit anymore. And it's just seems like a crap shoot for who's gonna have their shit together or not in week one. Tomlin talked about it on the Sunday night halftime. Um, and that was the first time I really started thinking like, yeah, I, it's impossible to figure out who's gonna be ready and who's not. Like you, look, the Chiefs looked like they'd been practicing

• 10:51Bill Simmons?

  for three months. Denver and the uh, and the Chargers looked like they had just put on pads for the first time. So what, what do people in the league say about this? Cause it seems like a, a bigger deal than maybe we realize.

• 11:04Speaker 01

  Well, like Tomlin's a great example of it. You can go back through his history and his record, October through December was way better than it was in September. Belichick, same thing. Mike McCarthy, same thing. It's just been exacerbated by the lack of those preseason reps. And so yeah, when you talk to coaches and front office people, what everybody says is the first month of the season, you're just trying to figure out who you are. You're trying to figure out what's the identity of the team. I mean, the Texans did it last year. Like they went oh and three and then Tabeeko handed over play calling duties to Matt Burke on defense. The offense kind of found their way and all of a sudden, you know, they made a run to the playoffs. Say, you don't want to live there. Houston losing two games to the Bills and the Bengals, both at home to start the season is

• 11:46Speaker 01

  not what the start you want to get off to when the question is, can you compete with the big dogs? But that's, you know, the, the good coaches are gonna get better. They're gonna experiment with different things, try to figure it out. And then, you know, once you get into October, that's when you start to, to really understand who you are as a football team and you hope you can build on it.

• 12:04Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Buffalo knows who they are as a football team because they have Josh Allen. So that's gonna, that's what's gonna happen. The Rams are still favored in the NFC, which I thought was crazy. Um, McDermott versus Joe Brady. So you, I mean, the, people thought McDermott was an above average to good coach. I don't think people would ever have put him in like the top five, but I think most people thought he was good coach. Um, you said he gets hired next year.

• 12:35Speaker 01

  I believe so.

• 12:35Bill Simmons?

  I watched, I watched what's happening with Buffalo now and I'm like, would this be happening if he was still the coach?

• 12:42Speaker 01

  Again, I think it's hard.

• 12:43Bill Simmons?

  Or was it time for a change?

• 12:44Speaker 01

  I, I think that some, there's something to be said for change for the sake of change. Like the, the only two positions in your organization, you can make like a, a sea change are quarterback and head coach. Well, they're not firing Josh Allen. See if fire Sean McDermott and give everybody that vibe. I mean, the, the story Terry.

• 12:59Bill Simmons?

  So you think it was time for him though?

• 13:01Speaker 01

  The ti, the story Terry Pagula told after the playoff game in Denver, which ended, you know, the weird catch, non catch thing. And he said that he saw Josh like with his head in his hands, totally dejected and decided it's time. In Terry's mind, that was just, we've gone as far as we can with Sean. We, we gotta do something different. And they, and they ran a real search. I know everybody thinks the fix was in for Joe Brady. Like they, they really did, you know, want to look around, but Joe, Joe's grown a lot. Like I'm, I met Joe when he was in Carolina and like he's, he's matured a lot. He's got a lot of swag to him now that he really didn't have um, in those days. Sean, you have to just remember what he built it from. He, they hadn't made the playoffs

• 13:41Speaker 01

  since I think 1999, when he takes over in 2017 and immediately gets into the playoffs. Then 2018, they ate all the dead cap and were not good. But then 2019 on, they get the right quarterback in Josh and, and they're rolling. Like he, he played a, a big role in that. Cycled through different offensive coordinators, had to replace guys when they left. Did a good job of that. I mean, we're in the playoffs, we're in it every year. They, they didn't deliver at the end, but there, there's plenty of coaches who have had a lot of success in terms of winning games. I mean, Andy Reid, who Sean trained under, that, that's a great example of it. Andy was the guy who always got close and never could do it in Philly. And now he's got a, you know, an entire trunk full of rings in Kansas City.

• 14:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. You have the, your best case scenario is it's the Mark Jackson, Steve Kerr scenario in the uh, with the Warriors in the NBA where somebody took you as far as they could go. And then here comes the next guy to push you over the top. The biggest thing I've noticed with them other than um, it just feels like sometimes you just feel it when somebody's gonna have the best year of their career. And it just feels like this is lining up for Josh. But this, De'ionne Walker, you know, I was looking when I, when I do my prep and I rank the rosters and the players and I have this whole dumb system. And one of the things that was holding me back with the Bills was, I don't know if they have any blue chippers on, on defense. I don't know if they have a difference maker, but Walker has really stood out in these games. And maybe that's who that's gonna be. I don't know.

• 15:05Speaker 01

  What's he listed at? Like six, seven, three?

• 15:08Bill Simmons?

  Six, seven.

• 15:09Speaker 01

  Three sixty or something. I.

• 15:11Bill Simmons?

  He's like a small forward. Like a, like a thick, small forward.

• 15:15Speaker 01

  When I was doing sideline for the senior bowl, he was in it a couple of years ago. And it was like a sight gag where the producers were in my ear going, hey, stand behind De'ionne Walker. We just want to get the shot. And all you could see in the background was like the shot on me. And then like back here, you saw like the middle of the numbers on his jersey were behind my head. Like he is just an utterly enormous dude. Remember, but they played with that, without Ed Oliver. He, he hurt his hip in pregame warmups tonight. So Walker probably played more also in part because of that. Um, you know, so they, that's one of their best players, which probably helps explain some of the issues they had when Gibbs was running between the tackles. But yeah, I mean, they, they do have dudes on defense. They just, you know, they're still an offensive football

• 15:59Speaker 01

  teams where a lot of their resources went in the off season, other than bringing in Bradley Chubb, who was a difference maker again tonight. Um, so we'll, we'll see if they achieve a little bit more balance. Cause you don't want to live in a world where you're, you know, knowing you got, you're gonna give up 30 plus every week. But they've done it twice so far.

• 16:14Bill Simmons?

  And Kincaid so far has been a good one too. So a couple Detroit storylines. Gibbs, 34 touches last week. He had 20, I think 21, unless he had a couple more since I looked at this tonight. Let me look at this really quick to make sure I got it right. 16, 22. So in the span of five days, he had 56 touches.

• 16:38Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:39Bill Simmons?

  So he's on pace for, I don't know, 450, whatever, whatever. Like, I just don't see him holding up. And I thought, especially when they went down 21, nothing today. I, I kind of would have been like, I think we're good with Gibbs. Maybe let's, let's uh, let's, let's check out the backups. Let's see what we got here.

• 16:55Speaker 01

  Can you name, can you name the backup running back on the Lions?

• 17:00Bill Simmons?

  It's Pacheco, who's at the hospital.

• 17:01Speaker 01

  Right. Sione Vaki is the number two running back who has three carries total over two games. I would, I don't know this for sure, but I would give you an educated guess, Bill, that by the time the Lions are back on the practice field Monday, they'll have another veteran back on the roster. They, they had Kareem Hunt in for a visit recently.

• 17:25Bill Simmons?

  He's available.

• 17:26Speaker 01

  Uh, John Dorsey, who drafted him in Kansas City is now in Detroit. Uh, that would be a logical guy that would fit in. There's, there's some other veteran running backs out there. I, I would be willing to bet you, they, they know as well as anybody, that's not sustainable. I mean, 17 game season, average 30 touches a game. That, that's hard to do, which is also why, like I said, Kenneth Walker, I, I don't know that you, you want to do that, especially early in the season at quite that clip.

• 17:50Bill Simmons?

  I'm positive you don't. I looked at his first four years. I don't think he'd ever had more than like 255 touches, something like that. The other, the other storyline, I have some Lions fans in my life where they, the Ben Johnson, keeping Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson leaving, which by the way, what are they gonna do? Fire Dan Campbell after they went like 14 and three to give like, there's, nobody would ever do that in a million years. So it's a, it's fundamentally a stupid argument. But I do think there's a real shadow with Ben Johnson where you have, you had this guy who was like clearly like a really special, special, special coach, you know? And offensively,

• 18:32Bill Simmons?

  it's just completely different. And you know, I, I think the Lions fans that I know are like, we're gonna end up like, we'll fire Campbell in a year from now and Ben Johnson's basically gonna be the new McVeigh. And we just got stuck with the wrong guy. I don't know if that's fair, but have you, have you heard that in the circles at all? Like, ah, they, they backed the wrong dude here?

• 18:52Speaker 01

  Well, not backed the wrong dude, because Dan Campbell has a lot of respect within the league and everybody knows, you know, the, the Ford family loves Dan Campbell. Remember Sheila came out midway through his second year during the bye, when they were like four and 25 or something at that point. It was like, Dan's our guy. Like, we're not backing off this. Just, just put it all to bed. Dan's our guy. Like she, she believed in the culture so much and, and it proved to be correct. With Ben, I can tell you, they would have much rather he not be in the division.

• 19:24Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 19:24Speaker 01

  That would have been nice if he had just left, but the Bears job was the one job uh, that he wanted. So they, listen, they've got a capable offensive coordinator there in Drew Petsing. And this is Dan Campbell's offense. Ben is the play caller. Ben did a lot of the design and in terms of like, all those little things, like he was a driving force. Cause you see him doing it in Chicago. But it's still at its core, it's the offense that Dan, along with Ben, put in when they relieved Anthony Lynn of his play calling duties back in Dan's first year. So like the bones of it hasn't changed. Yeah. There's probably some, some rhythm that, that goes into it that you need to find. If Jameson Williams didn't have a good game in week one, that doesn't help you. Again, you're relying a ton on Gibbs. You're relying on Laporta. Uh, you're relying on Amon

• 20:09Speaker 01

  Ross St. Brown.

• 20:10Bill Simmons?

  Laporta staying healthy.

• 20:11Speaker 01

  And the offensive line, by the way, lest we forget, was down two starters tonight and it looked like it for the whole first half. Uh, yeah. I mean, there's, there's always gonna be a piece of that. There, there's no doubt about it. And if Ben Johnson wins a Super Bowl before Dan Campbell does, you're gonna have, you know, those questions. But there was never a thought, I guarantee you that. Of like, what if we just hold on to Ben? They, they felt fortunate that Ben, two years in a row before that turned down head coaching jobs to come back. Like they had their run.

• 20:37Bill Simmons?

  What was the one he turned down the year before? Was it Washington?

• 20:40Speaker 01

  He turned down Carolina two years before he went to Chicago. They had the plane essentially.

• 20:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 20:47Speaker 01

  I, I mean this metaphorically, but I think it's literally true. They had the plane waiting for him and he didn't get on the plane. The year after, the commanders people were flying into Detroit.

• 20:58Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 20:58Speaker 01

  And he was trying frankly to call them and text them while they're on the plane to say, don't come. They're already up there. They don't have Starlink or whatever. And so they land and it's like, he's not coming. So yeah, he had two different jobs, went back to Detroit twice, took the swing. They got knocked out, um, you know, in the playoffs in that last year. And he, he was on to Chicago within two days.

• 21:22Bill Simmons?

  These NFC North defenses, so we have Detroit, which looks like they're going to be in trouble for at least until their, uh, their two D backs come back.

• 21:31Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 21:32Bill Simmons?

  We have Chicago, they gave up 37 points last week to Bryce Young and it actually probably could have been worse.

• 21:39Bill Simmons?

  And then you have Green Bay, who got lit up by Carson Wentz and themselves on, uh, on Sunday. I don't know what to make of them and that, who knows what they're gonna do with the Jets and then, um, then you have Minnesota, who's just doing, they're just gonna blitz the living hell out of everybody and some teams will be able to handle it. Some teams won't. I, I can't tell who the best NFC North team is, is my point. My, my instinct is maybe Chicago's offense is better than anybody else's anything in that division. But for the most part, like, could nine and eight win the NFC North?

• 22:14Speaker 01

  I don't think so.

• 22:15Bill Simmons?

  10 and 7? Like what, what's the floor for first place wins in this division?

• 22:20Speaker 01

  They're gonna beat each other up, there's no doubt about it, but you know, the Vikings have a case. I mean, the best, most intriguing matchup in terms of X's and O's this week is Ben Johnson versus Brian Flores at Soldier Field. Like that's fun. Like does Flo keep just blitzing the hell out of him? Does he all of a sudden just play coverage for the day and you know, what's the back and forth like there? Green Bay's waiting for Micah Parsons to get back. If you go back to like this string of, everyone keeps saying the string of losses. It's literally since the game where Micah tore his ACL in Denver and ever since then, like they have leads in all these games and they can't close it because they don't have the guy to get after the passer. Plus they traded Rashawn Gary in the offseason too.

• 22:59Bill Simmons?

  And the Jacobs thing is no small thing either, because I just don't think their running backs are good right now. You know, I don't think they're gonna be able to run the ball with what they have.

• 23:08Speaker 01

  Fourth and one last week in Minnesota. I know everybody, you know, breaking down the floor, pulling the field goal off the, off the board and going for it on fourth and one. Mathematically, correct decision to make based on all the game management people I talked to this week. But also, if you have Josh Jacobs, it's probably a run to Josh Jacobs and not Jordan Love trying to move the pile. Like they got Chris Brooks and Marshawn Lloyd and Caleb Johnson as a committee behind an offensive line that never practiced together in camp because everybody was hurt. They've got their challenges. I, I don't know that there's a, a clear favorite. I guess you'd say the Bears until proven otherwise, but they also, you know, while scoring 59 points, they also made Bryce Young look like he might be headed to Canton in that game last week too.

• 23:48Bill Simmons?

  And Jalen Coker.

• 23:50Speaker 01

  Well.

• 23:51Bill Simmons?

  The Lions were better favorites. Now in Fanduel, they're basically, the Bears and Lions are pretty even. And who knows with the Bears? All right, couple, uh, put your reporter hat on.

• 24:04Speaker 01

  Let's do it.

• 24:07Bill Simmons?

  Anyone on the hot seat yet?

• 24:10Bill Simmons?

  I know it's not even week two. Is that, is the seat warming up for anybody? Are we feeling it yet?

• 24:16Speaker 01

  Not yet, but I would say this, I've had this conversation a bunch today. When teams fall to 0-2, that's when panic mode takes over. At that point, just within the building, it starts to be, we're either screwed or like, we gotta trade, trade for a guy and like shake things up. That's when you start to really, um, feel it. I think that some of the, you know, some of the coaches that probably came into this year feeling like they had a lot on the line, got wins, you know, in week one. You saw, I mean, the Jets came out and got a win. Let's see what happens when the Packers go out there this week. It's a big week. They haven't started 2-0 in forever in New York. You know, I, I thought the most disappointing game last week, the most disappointing team was the Chargers. And I'm not saying, I'm not saying Jim Harbaugh is on the hot seat, but.

• 25:02Bill Simmons?

  Why not?

• 25:03Speaker 01

  I, I've made this point before, you don't pay a guy that much money and bring him in with that much fanfare to expect to go one and done in the playoffs every year. Like you're bringing him in because you think you're winning a Super Bowl. They just look flat against a Cardinals team that if you, I think we talked about this, Bill, the first appearance. It's like, name the teams that might have the number one pick. Like the Cardinals are on the shortlist of like five teams. They came out last week and looked totally competent on both sides of the football and the Chargers just looked dead. That's what I'm watching, not because I think Jim Harbaugh gets fired, but more so like, we all want to believe Mike McDaniel and like, you know, the unique personality and he's a genius and he is. And Jim, but like, those two in terms of how they see football, much less their personalities, like they don't exactly mesh on paper.

• 25:47Speaker 01

  So let's see what they do this week. You know, what, what is it actually gonna look like? Is it gonna be Mike McDaniel's offense? Is it gonna be elements of, of Jim's offense? And, and oh yeah, they're probably doing it without Lad McConkey too.

• 25:57Bill Simmons?

  How's that I talk about that game? Cause they're playing the Raiders, right? And it's in LA. Seems like a good spot to get back and maybe they blow out the Raiders. We're like, ah, the Chargers are fun.

• 26:09Bill Simmons?

  I watched, there was only four games on the late window and I, so I really was carefully watching everything.

• 26:16Bill Simmons?

  It wasn't just that they looked flat. They, I thought they looked legitimately slow. I didn't feel like they were that athletic and I don't,

• 26:25Bill Simmons?

  maybe they were so flat, it made them look slow, but I just thought they didn't have speed on defense at all. The middle of their line, the two tackles are great. The middle of the line, it was just collapsing.

• 26:37Bill Simmons?

  Herbert was a mess. They lost McConkey in the game because they threw him a hospital ball. And you know, I, I watched that game thinking like, I think Arizona is like right there. They, I think they have more talent. Arizona had like six long drives on them. It wasn't like, you know, like when they, uh, what was the game when the, the Steelers beat the Pats last year? And the Pats had like five turnovers. It's like your classic stupid September game.

• 27:01Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:02Bill Simmons?

  This was like Arizona kind of kicked the Chargers ass. And the stuff Harbaugh said after the game about like, ah, maybe we should have taken preseason more seriously and that. I, I thought it was alarming. That was the team I had in the playoffs and that, that would be my one do-over from what I saw in week one. I don't think that's a playoff team.

• 27:19Speaker 01

  There's this strange thing happening too with the Chargers and, and it's gone on the entire time Jim Harbaugh has been there, but like accelerated with the whole Justin Herbert will go down as the greatest quarterback to ever play the game quote.

• 27:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 27:33Speaker 01

  Jim is brought in in part to turn Justin Herbert into that player. And yet here we are, Justin Herbert's a really, really good football player, but you're entering year seven, I believe for Herbert. You have no playoff wins. They just looked not good around him. It wasn't all Herbert, but like the whole offense just looked bad in that game. And I, I don't know, Jim's a unique guy. Like I don't know if there's a strategy behind that to try to like, pull it out of Herbert or why you keep making those remarks, but like, and I'm sure he didn't expect to get the crap kicked out of him by Arizona in week one, but just to like, set that as like the baseline, this guy's the greatest ever. Then you watch the game and it's like, the Cardinals are beating the shit out of him. Like.

• 28:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's absurd. He also was absurd with J.J. McCarthy. There's some stuff he said about him as well. It's like he, he wants to praise you to build you up, but it ends up, you know, being stupid. I did a thing on my pod this week about, Justin Herbert used to be the nerd king. All the football nerds loved Justin Herbert and they would defend him. He's better than you realize. And now that's kind of drifted to Jordan Love and Herbert, um, you know, it's, it's not year three, it's not year four. Like I think by year seven, you kind of are who you are as a quarterback with really rare exceptions. So I don't, that, that Raiders game, if they lose that game, I think that's hot seat time. You gotta look at this and go, what's going on? You, you guys haven't had a real impact.

• 29:01Bill Simmons?

  You haven't had a playoff win. You paid Harbaugh all this money. Like what are we doing?

• 29:04Speaker 01

  And my concern is McConkey's out and I expect him to be out for the game.

• 29:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 29:09Speaker 01

  Who are you moving around? Like Mike McDaniel's offense is, you know, I know he got away from the motions a little bit as last year Miami, but like, it's all about creating these mismatches around the field. Like they have Quentin Johnston. But Quentin Johnston's a vertical, you know, stretch receiver. He's not bouncing around all these different spots. Like Lad is, to me, that's the main chess piece. That's the guy who moves the entire board. You know, with him not out there, it just, it puts so much more pressure on you to just kind of win one-on-one at different spots. I'll be interested to see how Mike approaches this game and what he tries to throw at the Raiders. But you know, the Raiders, Bowers doesn't practice. Seems unlikely that he plays this week. Like he found ways to function last week. Gentey got himself going.

• 29:51Bill Simmons?

  Gentey was good.

• 29:52Speaker 01

  I think they got a chance to score some points in this game if the Chargers offense doesn't show up. And you know, it's a Raiders home game, by the way, in that building. Like the Raiders fans come out for it. This is not like a gimme right now in my mind. I think it's a pretty big game.

• 30:07Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the line was, I think it was over seven and it's dropped and it's Chargers by six and a half. But I, I think it's gonna keep dropping because the tough thing with the Raiders is they played Miami, who might go 0-17. Like we, we know they're bad. We're kind of gonna know after this San Francisco game this week, how bad they are. So it's tough to kind of know what's happened with the Raiders. Tell me what's going on with the Minnesota QB situation.

• 30:32Speaker 01

  So Kyler's in the, in the concussion protocol, but he's progressed, been progressing through it this week. They've not ruled him out. I don't think he plays on Sunday for a variety of different reasons, but he may be cleared in time to play in that game. You know, with Carson Wentz, he, he steps in. Wentz at this stage in his career, I think there are times where he's at his best when there's no pressure on him. Come off the bench, he had no reps in practice, just like go out there and play. Don't even think about it.

• 31:03Bill Simmons?

  It's like an amnesia game. You just kind of come in, don't know what happened.

• 31:06Speaker 01

  He threw three touchdowns, no picks in that game and they came back.

• 31:10Bill Simmons?

  Awesome. He really was. He took some big hits too.

• 31:13Speaker 01

  I mean, it was, you know, he's, he's not moving around like he used to, but it was shades of 27, 2017 Carson Wentz. When just in terms of how he distributed the football. So you know, if, if Wentz goes in this week, I, I don't think this is at all a situation where, hey, if Wentz plays well again, then Kyler, you're going to the bench and Wentz is staying in. Like Wentz gets hurt every year, quite frankly. Like you hope he doesn't, but that's just his track record. He's gonna get banged up. Kyler also gets hurt a lot. J.J.'s not been able to stay on the field. Like that's why they got three of these guys. Was Kevin O'Connell's going, I've used three or four quarterbacks in two of my four seasons. I better have three guys who can play. So it'd be Wentz is the one, J.J. backing him up. And I anticipate if Kyler doesn't play, which again, I can't a hundred percent rule out Kyler playing

• 31:56Speaker 01

  this week against the Bears based on where he is in the protocol. But I fully anticipate he's back in the lineup probably week three, regardless how Wentz does this week.

• 32:06Bill Simmons?

  What are you hearing about Philly?

• 32:10Speaker 01

  In terms of just the way that they're playing, I mean, it was, it was kind of an ugly win against the commanders. They did enough. I thought Hertz looked more comfortable than I expected running that offense that he really hadn't been exposed to before. Um, you know, that division, man, like, I know everybody wanted to talk about Dallas going into the season and they may well, week one might be the outlier. I think they'll be better on defense. They had more blown coverages and missed assignments and stuff. Like, I never bought, like, they're, they're a Super Bowl favorite right now. Their step is just get in the playoffs. So this, you know, this to me sets up as like another perfect season where everyone bitches about the Eagles the entire season, and then we get to the end and they're 11

• 32:53Speaker 01

  and six and they're playing in the playoffs. Like, I don't know, the Giants came out, like, they looked better. John Arba's a good coach. We'll see. Commanders, like, Jaden looked good. That was one takeaway I had was like, he actually is moving like himself.

• 33:04Bill Simmons?

  Second half was good, yeah.

• 33:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, like, it, it looks more like it, but I, I still like, the Eagles are still the team to beat. They're just, based on the market they play in and all the stuff that comes with the Eagles, you know, they're the team that we're gonna complain about no matter how many games they're winning because of the fashion in which they win them.

• 33:20Bill Simmons?

  I said on, on the Sunday night pod, I was saying, every game they play, both fanbases are bummed out at the end of the game. It doesn't matter who they're playing. Both sides are like, man, that sucked. What's wrong with us? And it's always disjointed and you, you just never feel great. Um, the Bob Kraft stuff, were you following that this week?

• 33:39Speaker 01

  I was.

• 33:40Bill Simmons?

  What is the NFL's role when they have owners involved in stuff that's not football? Are they just hands off with that? What do they do? Do they give them counsel or do they just hope it goes away?

• 33:52Speaker 01

  I mean, they're always available to give counsel, but I mean, the owners run the league. You know, the 32 owners are really Roger Goodell's boss in a lot of ways. I mean, Kraft just is the chair of the compensation committee that just awarded him a new contract. So when it comes to what's happening in your building, there's very few occasions where they start to coordinate. You know, the, the social justice protests were a time where they kind of got together, like, how do we handle this? And if you remember, every team did it differently. I mean, you had Dan Snyder out there locking arms with his players on the field, like, images that make no sense in any context, other than it was 2020 and shit got weird. But like, things like this, no. I mean, Roberts, his, his work for, you

• 34:36Speaker 01

  know, a variety of different foundations and whatnot, his work in his drills, pretty well documented. This is an odd situation. I saw Ed Sheeran, by the way, like, three weeks ago. Had no idea. I was seeing him before he became a, a socio-political lightning rod.

• 34:51Bill Simmons?

  It's the volleyball.

• 34:52Speaker 01

  The most inoffensive music and inoffensive guy you can possibly think of. Now suddenly he's dressed in the limelight. Now it's-

• 34:58Bill Simmons?

  It's like Michael Bublé being involved.

• 35:00Speaker 01

  It's not a, uh, yeah, it's not a, not a league issue. Um, you know, in terms of anything that, that I've heard, though, obviously, you know, you have people playing stadiums and things happen. It's gonna impact more than one owner.

• 35:11Bill Simmons?

  What do you think is the biggest league issue right now that they're kind of hoping doesn't become bigger? Do we have one? Or is it just smooth sailing this year?

• 35:20Speaker 01

  I'd say it's a quiet time for the NFL in advance of a really wild time. The NFL, based on everyone's expectations, is gonna opt out of their TV deals in 2029. That's three years away. Like, it's coming up. They're trying to open some of them early and, and do new deals. But like, that's the prelude. Those TV deals that are the prelude to the CBA being up in 31. There's a new executive director in, in J.C. Tredor who's just taking over. They worked out a deal on the fines thing, if you saw that, where, you know, players now, like, the, the way the fines work and suspensions, basically three strikes and you're out on certain types of fouls. Like, they worked that out, which is a good sign. Like, the sides can actually work together. There's not like, yeah, there's not that

• 36:03Speaker 01

  overarching thing. You get three guys on the exempt list, you know, that's never ideal, but that's, you know, that'll play itself out. It's not totally uncommon. Business is good, man. The, the salary cap is over $300 million. It's gone up, it's like tripled in a decade. Like, that's crazy. But it's because of revenue sharing agreement and they're making money hand over fist. Like, it's a great time to be the NFL, but just with the, the changing media landscape and the opt-out-

• 36:31Bill Simmons?

  So there's a, something's coming, but we're not, we're not near yet. I mean, the big thing is the young quarterback stars, that they've been able to regenerate. They almost have these two separate age groups of like the mid twenties to thirty, but then like the Caleb Drake, you know, that, that territory of Mendoza coming. They just, this is a league that's always as interesting as all the quarterbacks they have, and it feels like there's just a lot of interesting quarterbacks right now.

• 36:57Speaker 01

  Everybody complains about officiating, but like, we're a week in a game in and we have basically no officiating controversies. Uh, they, you know, staved off the new replacement-

• 37:07Bill Simmons?

  Don't tell the Green Bay fans that.

• 37:08Speaker 01

  I mean, or, or the Saints fans after the play with, uh, with golf last week. But like, you don't have like the, you know what I mean? Like, the off the charts, wild thing. Like, it's, business is good. Right now, ratings are great and-

• 37:23Bill Simmons?

  You know what I would say is, you know, it's a wild card right now. I think there's so much money out there that wants to buy sports teams, that I wonder if there's some godfather offers coming for some of these NFL teams. Because it's, we really haven't had that much turnover with the NFL. Would we have like, basically like maybe a new team, new owner every 18 months?

• 37:44Speaker 01

  Yeah, spell out the right cadence, yeah.

• 37:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but there's some, there's some pretty big franchises, like Liverpool just went and soccer, right? The Celtics and the Lakers just sold and basketball. Um, I do wonder if there's a couple of the, the big ones, like the Bears. Could the Bears be available? Could the Jets be available? You know, like some, some pretty big cities with big football teams.

• 38:10Speaker 01

  The, the question would be, the, the big money would come in if some of the family-owned teams begin to sell. And I know there's been a lot of speculation about the Bears, because you got all these various McCaskey family members with different interests. And now they're trying to get a stadium built, whether that's in Indiana, potentially in Arlington Heights. But they've, they've said repeatedly they're not selling the team. If those types of teams, there, there's really two different classes of owners. You could say three. You got the, the really rich guys who bought the teams for not that much. The Jerry Jones, Robert Krafts of the world. You've got the new money type of owners, like Shahed Khan when he came in, um, the, the Costlers who just bought the Seahawks for

• 38:55Speaker 01

  over $9 billion. Like, that's kind of the new money. And then you've got these ones that are still what I'd call the, the commercial flight teams. They're the ones who like, they don't have the private jet, they don't have the crazy practice facilities. They're still running their organization kind of the way that they always have, right? The Bengals still, they bu, they built a bubble, finally. It's down the street and you gotta walk outside in the rain to get to it. But they do finally have a practice bubble. They don't have to go to the Cincinnati gym anymore. But like, they're an organization, they've, they've started selling their naming rights to the stadium. They've changed their guarantee structure to get some of their big contracts done. They traded the number 10 pick for Dexter Lawrence. Even they're like, evolving. But if those teams ever start to sell, if

• 39:36Speaker 01

  the money gets so crazy that those teams sell, the, the whole reason is inventory. Like, that's, that's the biggest reason you don't have turnovers, because nobody ever goes up for sale unless you get run off like Dan Snyder, or it's in a trust like Jody Allen after Paul Allen died, that the Seahawks had to be sold at some point. You don't have like the, hey, this team that's been in business with one family for 50 years or 100 years now gets sold. That stuff hasn't happened. If we ever get to that point and you're seeing chunks of it sold to private equity already, if you start to see some of those teams tap out, that's where the real money comes in, because like, the average net worth of the owners will skyrocket at that point.

• 40:15Bill Simmons?

  With the new media deal coming too. Anything else, anything else from your notebook? You have your big, uh, the newsletter coming this weekend, but any, any, any last tidbits before we go here?

• 40:26Speaker 01

  I, I do have, I've, I've got some good stuff coming, uh, in the notebook. Uh, I mean, we're, we're live. What are we, midnight on Netflix? I'll, I'll share a little bit. I got, working on some things with the, uh, the Deshaun Watson trade from four years ago. It's Watson and the Browns against Baker Mayfield and the Bucks for the first time since the trade, the first time they have faced each other. And so I've been doing a lot of digging around how exactly that entire thing went down, the trade that also triggered Baker being traded. It is, it's still, and everybody said everything. I don't even just need to talk about, you know, the trade and how, what it's done to the Browns. But like, all the various stakeholders and the butterfly effect are bananas. And so I'm

• 41:10Speaker 01

  hoping, but there's no word count on Substack, so I'm just gonna do the whole thing and lay it out, and it, it should be pretty interesting.

• 41:17Bill Simmons?

  Oh my God, I can't wait. So when's that? Saturday morning?

• 41:20Speaker 01

  Saturday morning, it should be out. File it tomorrow night. And, uh, yeah, get up, read it with your coffee on Saturday. It's gonna be wild.

• 41:27Bill Simmons?

  All right. And you're gonna be on Ringer NFL tomorrow?

• 41:28Speaker 01

  Ringer NFL, uh, taping tomorrow as well. And then I think we're doing a, a chat Sunday pregame on, uh, Substack as well. So for the paid subscribers to the new newsletter, appreciate everybody who has, uh, jumped on board that already. Come in, ask me all your questions. Uh, know that I suck at fantasy football, but other than that, happy to help on anything I possibly can.

• 41:50Bill Simmons?

  The sweep. Um, all right, we're gonna take a break, bring in, uh, Joe House and do a little Ringer 107 and some gambling talk. Tom Pellicero, pleasure as always. Good to see you.

• 42:00Speaker 01

  Thanks, Billy. You too.

• 42:02Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. You know how NFL Sundays work. We have the early slate and you jump into the late slate. And then Sunday Night Football is the cherry on the sundae. FanDuel has something for you every step of the way with the Sunday Spectacular. We're talking rewards throughout the day from the first games kicking off all the way through Sunday night. You could hear four of my picks that I did with Joe House on, uh, on my Thursday podcast. Check out our teasers, by the way, because we have a nice little special teaser section for Ringer 107 and you can jump on those for minus 110 will be the juice up to $50 bets. Wherever the NFL Sunday takes you, keep an eye on the FanDuel app to see what's waiting for you. It's a full day of football, more ways to get rewarded along the way.

• 42:46Bill Simmons?

  Download the app to check out the Sunday Spectacular. Make this your most rewarding season ever with FanDuel. 21 plus select states or 18 plus DC, Kentucky, Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you so they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

• 43:31Bill Simmons?

  Joe House is here, my friend since 1988. We thought we were going to do really well last week with all of our picks and stuff. And then, uh, a couple of teams had some other ideas. We'll get to them later. I wanted to do some mailbag stuff with you. I wanted to go through the week two slate. I wanted to ask you this because I was, I turned on ESPN today to put on NFL Live, but NBA Today was on? And they were showing Kawhi Leonard, they were showing footage of him in Toronto, like greeting the coach and looking at his locker and just being really happy to be home. And I, I'm a Celtic fan. I'm not a Clipper fan, but I do know a bunch of Clipper fans and I don't remember another situation where somebody has left this much wreckage behind.

• 44:15Bill Simmons?

  And then it's like, it's great to be here in Toronto. I just think it's so weird and I don't feel like it's been covered the way maybe it should be covered. What are your thoughts having no dog in this race at all?

• 44:25Speaker 02

  It is incredibly weird. The one thing that pops immediately to mind is let's find on the schedule when Toronto is supposed to arrive in LA and play the Clippers. Uh, and let's see if we can get a line on whether or not Kawhi actually plays in that basketball game.

• 44:45Bill Simmons?

  He's skipping that one.

• 44:46Speaker 02

  There is no chance that in, in the history of load management, that is an absolute lock of the century. Kawhi Leonard won't play in that basketball game.

• 44:56Bill Simmons?

  I was thinking how funny it would be if he did come back and play and they do the tribute video and the tribute video is just him in street clothes and all these different outfits. And it's like two and a half minutes of just him on the bench applauding teammates, him and like wearing, wearing sweatpants and a, you know, hoodie.

• 45:14Speaker 02

  The internet is better than that. The internet will be giant envelopes. It'll be Daktronics logos. It'll be a spy, it'll be trees with, with, uh, Uncle Dennis, you know, money trees with Uncle Dennis as the trees grow up. I mean, let the internet do, just cook with a tribute video.

• 45:32Bill Simmons?

  He had some quote where he was like, my, my kid has been asking me when we get to go back to Toronto. Now we're here. I never heard him mention Toronto for six years. This whole thing is just nuts.

• 45:43Speaker 02

  It's a farce. I mean, I, I'm very torn because we the North, they, they deserve, um, the, the positive momentum that they built last season. They deserve to build on that.

• 45:57Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 45:57Speaker 02

  And it is, you know, this unrequited love that they had for Kawhi because he delivered that championship to them. This is the culmination of that, but he's coming in so, so filthy dirty. Who's dirtier than, than Kawhi?

• 46:10Bill Simmons?

  He needs like a silk one shower, like the Meryl Streep shower where they had to get the toxic reactor off her. That's how dirty he is.

• 46:19Speaker 02

  I really don't think that I should go in this direction, but when, when we were younger.

• 46:26Bill Simmons?

  Whatever you're going to say now, I'm nervous.

• 46:29Speaker 02

  You know, there were situations, I'm not saying that I was.

• 46:34Bill Simmons?

  I don't even know where you're going with this.

• 46:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, I should probably stop.

• 46:38Bill Simmons?

  That's good. Let, let the listeners wonder where you're going.

• 46:41Speaker 02

  I liked women with, with mixed backgrounds. I'll just leave it at that. And I'm talking about, you know, their, their judgment, you know, the circumstances under which, I didn't mind that. I liked women that were a little bit on the wild side. I'll just leave it at that.

• 47:00Bill Simmons?

  I sent a long email to the Clippers on Wednesday asking them to release us from our season tickets.

• 47:07Speaker 02

  Why not? Seems appropriate.

• 47:09Bill Simmons?

  Can I read the letter to you?

• 47:11Speaker 02

  I would love it. Let's hear it. Did you really do this?

• 47:15Bill Simmons?

  I did, two days ago.

• 47:16Speaker 02

  This is incredible.

• 47:17Bill Simmons?

  This is Bill Simmons. I am emailing you along with my friend, Mike Tolan. I first bought a pair of season tickets for the 2004 or 05 Clipper season, almost gave them up in 2010 because the team sucked to the point that it wasn't remotely fun to go unless you enjoyed the sounds of dead silence or fans yelling at their own players and coaches. The Lakers had just won back-to-back titles and the Clippers had just drafted Blake Griffin, who proceeded to immediately tear his patella and miss his first season because that's what always happened with Clippers. I wanted out. Mike convinced me to keep the tickets and we've been sharing the tickets ever since. It's been mostly a waste of time and money with very few fond memories, but we both loved the NBA and kept talking ourselves into renewing every year.

• 48:01Bill Simmons?

  Mike's a 76ers fan, I'm a Celtic fan. We really kept the tickets to see the other 29 teams while always hoping the Clippers would be competent enough to give us playoff games. Even in the 2020s, after the Clippers traded a future MVP and almost a decade of first round picks for a monosyllabic grifter who barely played and eventually torpedoed their future, we kept renewing, obviously because we were stupid. When the Clippers moved to the, to a two years ago, our ticket reps talked us into a five-year commitment for our season tickets. We were offered 20% off for the five-year commitment and regretfully, we decided to take the plunge. In retrospect, I'm surprised they didn't offer us some complimentary aspiration stock.

• 48:44Bill Simmons?

  And yeah, we agreed well before we learned that the Clippers had been flagrantly breaking the rules with their star player and his rule breaking, breaking uncle. We had no idea the Clippers were about to be handed the NBA version of a death penalty. Last season, our connections within the organization kept assuring us that Pablo's reporting was bullshit and nothing bad would happen to the Clippers. Sure. Now we're looking at three more years of a non-playoff team with the bleakest future in the NBA, not just that, but a six-row mid-court view of the single dumbest franchise in the history of the league. Anyway, we want no part of our season tickets. We are officially requesting to A, be let out of the last three years of our commitment

• 49:25Bill Simmons?

  and B, refunded whatever installments we've already paid for year three, if any. When we agreed to a half decade of non-inexpensive season tickets, we were under the assumption that the franchise would have a realistic chance to compete and that the team wasn't flagrantly breaking rules to the degree that it would soon receive the biggest punishment in the 80-year history of the league. The Clippers broke their contracts with fans and season ticket holders, so we would like to break ours. We want out of our tickets and we expect to let you to let us out. We didn't sign up for this. Thanks in advance. Bill Simmons and Mike Tolan.

• 50:01Speaker 02

  Incredible. Standing ovation. I'm sitting, but.

• 50:04Bill Simmons?

  I think it was the first thing I've written in five years.

• 50:07Speaker 02

  What a performance. You were clearly motivated.

• 50:09Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. No response yet from the Clippers.

• 50:12Speaker 02

  You didn't even have to go to legal AI to do it. You just wrote, it just came right out of your heart.

• 50:17Bill Simmons?

  Came right out of my fingers.

• 50:19Speaker 02

  Yeah. I will say this.

• 50:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 50:21Speaker 02

  There really is genuine legal ramifications to, to this situation, especially for, for people in your predicament, you and Tolan. I, I think.

• 50:32Bill Simmons?

  Like doing a multi-year contract under a certain set of assumptions that was, was immediately broken.

• 50:38Speaker 02

  There are a bunch of legal theories, fraudulent inducement, where you were induced based on a certain understanding of how competitive the team.

• 50:46Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 50:46Speaker 02

  Might be. And instead it was, it was an abject fraud because they were routinely breaking the rules during the, the, the entire tenure of, of Kawhi Leonard. Uh, and they were warned not to do so by the league when they broke the same rules with, uh, Deandre Jordan.

• 51:03Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 51:04Speaker 02

  So I, I don't know, you might hear from some lawyers. You might, you know, you, you might want to get your, your, uh, you're, you're going to have some incoming emails, some incoming calls. I wouldn't be surprised if there's already something under a foot in terms of class action.

• 51:17Bill Simmons?

  I'm sure we're not the only ones.

• 51:19Speaker 02

  Right.

• 51:20Bill Simmons?

  Um, look, I don't think, certainly wouldn't expect anyone to feel bad for us. Doesn't really matter ultimately. I just don't want to go to the games and I don't want to go to Clipper games anymore. And I don't think we should have to.

• 51:32Speaker 02

  I'm bummed. I want to see that stadium at some point when I come out. I still, it's still desirable to try it one time.

• 51:39Bill Simmons?

  They're going to need to fumigate the Kawhi aspiration stink out of it. It's going to be like when you have like, uh, a flood in the basement and you get that like musty smell. You have to do whatever. All right, some mailbag emails. Um, Taylor from Denver. He talked about how I always had the year from hell team, right?

• 52:02Bill Simmons?

  He wants to know why it's not New England this year. He gave some ingredients, including lost the Super Bowl to Seattle, then had to play them again in week one, lost again, A.J. Brown out for six weeks, Drake May is regressing, he says. Your coach was mired in an affair that was made public and your owner is kicking Macklemore off the Ed Sheeran tour. Ladies and gentlemen, you're 2026, you're from healthy than the New England Patriots. I mean, it is adding up a little bit.

• 52:28Speaker 02

  They are on one.

• 52:29Bill Simmons?

  What happens if they lose to Pittsburgh, the year from healthy, on top of all the shit that happened this week? I wonder, who are the other candidates? The Rams?

• 52:38Speaker 02

  The Chargers are certainly a candidate.

• 52:40Bill Simmons?

  But they might just suck. I don't even know if that's a year from healthy. Like, it's not like anything's happened to them, they just might not be good at football.

• 52:48Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 52:49Bill Simmons?

  Like, the Rams traded for Myles Garrett, they traded three first-round picks to Jared Burse, and he has a bum knee, apparently. So they're a candidate.

• 52:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, they're in the mix.

• 52:58Bill Simmons?

  I, I don't really know who else would be in there.

• 53:01Speaker 02

  Miami's deliberately sabotaging themselves, so they're not, yeah.

• 53:05Bill Simmons?

  I'm worried doing this on candidate. San Francisco's always a candidate because they seem to have terrible stuff left, right? Griffin H. said Gronk went on Kay Adams today and revealed that no one contacted him about Romeo Dobbs wearing 87 this year. Is this a big deal or a nothing burger? Do you think if Travis Kelsey retired, they would have let anyone wear his number a couple of years later? So I gotta be honest, I watched that whole Pat Seattle game. And I'm always bad with jersey numbers, but for some reason, it never dawned on me that he was wearing Gronk's number, so I'm belatedly outraged about this. I think this is an outrage. This is the best tight end of all time. Why is anyone wearing his number?

• 53:46Speaker 02

  It's an outrage because it's a desecration. I mean, Romeo Dobbs should just be shitting inside that jersey the way he did with his play. You know, that, that's the problem with it. It's not that somebody's wearing the number, it's that it's dishonorable. It's a dishonorable.

• 54:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that makes it worse. It's like, it's like when we started giving like Fred Lynn's number away in the, I don't know, the 90s, and it was always to like players that had no business, not that they were gonna retire Fred Lynn's number, but it was a little sacred for the kids of the 70s and early 80s. Um, I don't know. Uh, I don't think they should have given him 87, and I don't think anyone should wear that. And I think he's the, you know, I think he was the second-best player of the entire Belichick Brady dynasty, other than Brady.

• 54:31Speaker 02

  They could have at least given him a little heads up. Let him say his piece, right? Couldn't they have done that, the franchise?

• 54:37Bill Simmons?

  Not a good month for Bob Kraft, I'll tell you that much. Noah M. asks, the Manning cast seems to be bombing. 700,000 viewers in week one, this was the story this week.

• 54:49Speaker 02

  I was not one of them.

• 54:50Bill Simmons?

  But I still feel like there's something there. Is it fixable? Is it a Monday night problem or a Manning problem? What would the sports czar do? Well, there's two issues here. One is they went and they splurged for Joe Buck and Trey Aikman. I just feel like if you polled, I don't know, 100 actual football fans, and you're like, how would you like to watch this game? I like Buck and Aikman. I wanna watch it with those guys. That's, it's probably my favorite announcing crew, so why would I then wanna watch the Manning cast? Which, by the way, I should mention, I bet on, and I think, I think the Manning cast is good, I just don't understand why, why you and I wouldn't watch Buck and Aikman.

• 55:35Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, I'm already there. I don't have any interest in, uh, Manning cast. I liked it when it arrived, it was a good curiosity. Um, the most predictable thing ever, they, they, they drove it into the ground, they overdid it, it should have been a special thing. Three times a year would have been incredible.

• 55:52Bill Simmons?

  For bad games.

• 55:53Speaker 02

  That would have been fine, yes, yes. And their guests are, are always very good. I always enjoy the guests, it's always a little awkward because the connections, no, they're not in real time, so you don't, they're not reading each other's body language, they have to wait up a pause. Um, but yeah, the, the, the ultimate point is the one you just made, those Monday night football games have been, on balance, bangers. And we just wanna hear the best guys, you know, handle the game. Even if, if Troy is talking about, you know, what was his phrase? Uh, you know, one of the, one of the, the best guys in all of football.

• 56:29Bill Simmons?

  Oh, the all of football thing, yeah.

• 56:31Speaker 02

  One of the best coaches of all of football.

• 56:32Bill Simmons?

  See, I don't, I don't think Manning cast should have guests, even though it's interesting to have the guests. Hmm. I think the way to stand out would be just those two guys chopping it up for three hours. Maybe they feel like, they're in different places, so maybe they feel like they can't do that. You're bringing the guest in now, it's like, the feed isn't, it's like delayed, and I, I don't know.

• 56:54Speaker 02

  I'm gonna be a dick. I, I, unless Eli has the green light to just let his F flag fly, which is go full freak, and he's clearly got that in him, um, he, he gets dull. Eli's dull unless he's letting his freak.

• 57:08Bill Simmons?

  So have Eli drink.

• 57:10Speaker 02

  That, I'm into that. Sign me up for that, yes. Whatever it is, where he's in the mode where he's doing double middle fingers, I'm in. Okay, now, now, but he's, lots of times, he's not in that frame of mind.

• 57:22Bill Simmons?

  I think my bigger thing is, it feels like a waste of the opportunity to have these guys do football games. Cause it's not, let's be honest, we're not overflowing with awesome color guys for these football games we're watching. You know, and I get, Peyton doesn't wanna travel, and he's making a shitload of money, but I just don't, I don't know if the solution is to have those guys going head-to-head against Buck and Aikman, when we maybe have four broadcast teams total that I'm excited to hear from.

• 57:51Speaker 02

  I'm just never watching it.

• 57:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 57:53Speaker 02

  Unless it's, it's a shitty game, and there's a, a guest that I'm interested in.

• 57:58Bill Simmons?

  Ken from Oakdale, loved the bit from Cousin Sal about the NFL season doesn't start until Deshaun Watson's first pick. He thinks it should be called Browns Hog Day, because, um, he asked if we'd be surprised to know that of the 18 quarterbacks the Browns have started each season since 2000, they've thrown a week one interception 18 times, and a week two interception five times, and only four times have they made it past week two without an interception. I like Browns Hog Day, and I feel like every year, week one, they're gonna throw one.

• 58:30Speaker 02

  That's wonderful.

• 58:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 58:32Speaker 02

  Great job.

• 58:33Bill Simmons?

  Browns Hog Day is good.

• 58:34Speaker 02

  Who authored that?

• 58:35Bill Simmons?

  Ken from Oakdale, New York.

• 58:36Speaker 02

  Great job, Ken.

• 58:37Bill Simmons?

  And then got another Browns thing about, I mentioned how they might, the Browns stadium might get knocked down, did a mailbag thing about this Tuesday. It might have a three-decade life and get knocked down without ever hosting a playoff game, which seems impossible, but is actually gonna happen. Um, Rob from Brooklyn reminds us that MetLife Stadium opened in 2010, and the only time they've ever hosted a playoff game with either team was the 9-7 Giants, um, had a four-seat home playoff game that I think they won, they beat Minnesota?

• 59:08Speaker 02

  They did, they did beat Minnesota.

• 59:10Bill Simmons?

  And he said, between two franchises occupying that building, it's the only home playoff game that's been held. This is 16, 32 years, and they've only had one playoff game. That's almost as amazing as the Cleveland thing, but maybe that'll change this year. Um, I talked about, with Rob Mahoney, about Justin Herbert being the, um, being the old nerd king in the NFL, but now Justin, uh, Jordan Love has taken the mantle from him as the nerd king.

• 59:38Speaker 02

  I enjoyed that.

• 59:39Bill Simmons?

  And we talked about basketball, and whether LaMelo was the nerd king. Got some interesting emails about this. A guy named Adam wrote in and said, it has to be Rudy Gobert. Minnesota traded five firsts for him. He's played off the court repeatedly in the playoffs, but the nerds maintain he's worth every penny, he's one of the great rim protectors of all time, um, he's had the belt for years, it's gotta continue to be his. And then, uh, Matt M. suggested both Thompson twins with a joint belt.

• 1:00:08Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:00:09Bill Simmons?

  But Kirk Goldsberg, our friend, texted me. KG texted in and said, it's clearly Chet Holmgren.

• 1:00:16Speaker 02

  Whoa, okay, interesting.

• 1:00:19Bill Simmons?

  And I thought, if you're looking at the case of the Justin Herbert nerd king of like, basically the stat, people, the nerds making excuses for a player, pointing to stats, but not having the results. Chet in the playoffs last year, combined with like, the, the advanced defensive stats are awesome for him, and everybody likes him, but the people are also making excuses. It's an interesting one. I still, I think, I think Gobert is better, but I think Chet's like the guy in waiting now.

• 1:00:48Speaker 02

  Gobert is in a different class altogether. I would put Holmgren and the, the Thompson twins, uh, in the same category, basically, like, it's a TBD, but certainly trending, certainly trending for both of them, all three of them.

• 1:01:04Bill Simmons?

  By the way, as I watched NBA today for like, five minutes today, watching the Kawhi stuff in disbelief, they ran on the ticker that Anthony Davis and the Wizards have delayed their extension talks.

• 1:01:16Speaker 02

  Fine, great. He's, it's, it's a prove-it year, and he's ready to prove it. You know how he's been spending his time? With this young group. He went to Vegas with them, he went to LA with them, Anthony Davis is all in for this Wizards team, and the extension will take care of itself, in, in not a dissimilar way from the way that the extension took care of itself with Trey Young. I think that they had an idea.

• 1:01:42Bill Simmons?

  It took care of itself in a fuck job way.

• 1:01:45Speaker 02

  Well, like, you, you call it that, but wait till we see Trey Young play some basketball, and let him be a leader to this young team.

• 1:01:53Bill Simmons?

  We're getting old, we're in our mid-50s now. Do you really wanna do this for five more years with a 43-39 Wizards team that's overpaying their best two guys?

• 1:02:01Speaker 02

  I'm going to be nothing but positive until there's a reason to not be positive about this Wizards team.

• 1:02:09Bill Simmons?

  So you're not gonna write a letter like I wrote to the Clippers?

• 1:02:11Speaker 02

  I just don't have a lot of winning basketball in my life.

• 1:02:14Bill Simmons?

  Matthew T. wrote, uh, with Kawhi Leonard off the hook, I thought of a fairly easy, uh, punishment for him, forcing him to consistently answer increasingly specific questions about the Rhode Island Football Club.

• 1:02:31Bill Simmons?

  Basically at games and post games, like just the reporters would be like, so what do you think? What do you think of the chances? What's your favorite thing you're doing? Paul Tuckett? Were you encouraged by their performance against Monterey Bay FC a few weeks back? Is J.J. Williams untouchable? I didn't even know what that means, but that made me laugh.

• 1:02:50Speaker 02

  A plus.

• 1:02:51Bill Simmons?

  And then Adam from San Francisco said, it's pretty clear now the NBA lottery is not rigged because there's never been a better reason or excuse to rig it than to make sure the Pacers got their pick and the Clippers didn't. But that didn't happen. How is Conspiracy Bill taking this? It's a pretty good point. If, if they had a real knowledge by mid-May that the Clippers, that there were a lot of receipts, and they did have the ability to swing the lottery, like say they might have from 2010 to 2014, um, this would have been the year to do it.

• 1:03:33Speaker 02

  Counterpoint.

• 1:03:33Bill Simmons?

  Okay, counterpoint.

• 1:03:35Speaker 02

  Counterpoint. You and I have talked about this privately. I think in mid-May, the league was not headed in a direction of where they ultimately landed. I think there were additional things that came to light from mid-May all the way up through August. And I think there was a galvanizing effect, an accelerant applied to the situation when the Clippers engineered a report from ESPN about the outcome in advance of the league

• 1:04:15Speaker 02

  weighing in. I think it was an extraordinarily arrogant act by the Clippers.

• 1:04:21Bill Simmons?

  It was an act of aggression.

• 1:04:23Speaker 02

  And they got exactly what they deserved as a result.

• 1:04:26Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I'd love to know what happens if they just don't do that.

• 1:04:29Speaker 02

  You and me both, brother. You and me both.

• 1:04:32Bill Simmons?

  By the way, they're trying to figure out expansion. They're in a weird thing here where the Vegas team is over $9 billion, but Seattle, it's basically the Foley's and they're, they're like in the sevens. So the, the number for Vegas doesn't match the number from Seattle. And I think they're trying to figure out what to do.

• 1:04:52Speaker 02

  Why does it have to?

• 1:04:53Bill Simmons?

  I, I don't know. If I, if I were them, I would be like, hey, somebody bid nine for Vegas and seven for Seattle. Let's go.

• 1:05:01Speaker 02

  They're different places.

• 1:05:02Bill Simmons?

  I wonder.

• 1:05:03Speaker 02

  I think it's fine.

• 1:05:03Bill Simmons?

  If you read between the lines of some of the stuff they said, I wonder if they're going to stagger this and do Vegas first and have 31 teams and then try to get it to boost. Cause what's really happening here is there's so much rich guy money right now that they're banking on, you know, there's probably like, what, 200, 250, 300 new people that because of investments and different things have the money.

• 1:05:28Speaker 02

  Right, right. SpaceX and AI.

• 1:05:31Bill Simmons?

  Name whatever that it's like, oh, this is my chance now to be cool and own my own thing. And I think they're just banking on the supply and demand thing and maybe.

• 1:05:42Speaker 02

  They can be patient then. They should just wait. There's no hurry.

• 1:05:45Bill Simmons?

  They don't have to wait with Vegas. They're not doing, that Vegas price is nuts.

• 1:05:49Speaker 02

  The one thing they can't get wrong, it better be an owner with the cleanest hands imaginable because the track record of the last four entrance into, into this league, it sucks.

• 1:06:00Bill Simmons?

  Well, the Charlotte guys have been good and I, I like the Boston guy. I just.

• 1:06:04Speaker 02

  Preceded.

• 1:06:05Bill Simmons?

  Oh, I got you.

• 1:06:05Speaker 02

  Preceded. I'm talking about the guy in Portland. I'm talking about the Dallas people. I'm talking about, you know, Ishbia doesn't have perfectly clean hands. It doesn't seem. The guy for the Lakers.

• 1:06:18Bill Simmons?

  Ah.

• 1:06:20Speaker 02

  Not great. Not great.

• 1:06:22Bill Simmons?

  So does Chelsea stock. Everyone's pretending he's not going to sell the Dodgers. Um, all right. Let's, uh, let's take a break. And then we're going to dive into week two. Ringer 107. And now it's time for a special part of today's episode. It's brought to you by our friends at NFL Sunday Ticket, my long, long friend of the 21st century. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get every game, every Sunday, all in one place. And since YouTube has officially crowned me their CMO, Chief Multi-View Officer, it's my job to tell you which four games deserve a spot in your multi-view this week. All right. So

• 1:07:04Bill Simmons?

  we're going to go to the one o'clock ET games and there's some good ones. Uh, the Cincinnati Houston game is the best game of the week. That has to be in your multi-view. Patriots Steelers, I think is going to be fascinating for a lot of different reasons. Uh, it's kind of a must-win for the Pats. Steelers won there last year. I would include that one. Green Bay at the Jets. There's going to be rain. What's better for multi-view than weird weather conditions? So I would throw that in there as well. And then Minnesota, Chicago is the fourth one. Just because the Bears offense, anytime they're on the field, you want to know what's going on on a multi-view. So those would be my four, and that's the beauty of multi-view. You, if you disagree with me on any of those choices, put one of your own things in. Instead of flipping channels every two minutes, build your own Sunday slate

• 1:07:49Bill Simmons?

  and you're ready to roll. New users can get NFL Sunday Ticket for eight payments of just $30 a month. Get every game, every Sunday, all in one place with NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV. New users pay $240 or eight, eight non-cancellable payments of $30 a month. First charge at purchase. Availability varies with NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games and YouTube TV for local, national games. YouTube TV required. Terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refunds. Today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by our friends at FanDuel. Make this your most rewarding season. Download the FanDuel app to check out all of our 107 picks and our boosted teaser every week this season. You hit your teaser last week?

• 1:08:31Speaker 02

  I sure did.

• 1:08:32Bill Simmons?

  I sure did as well.

• 1:08:33Speaker 02

  My bets, yes. One of my successful wagers.

• 1:08:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Um, I liked last week a lot more than this week, which is kind of sucks because I went two and three last week. Um, if we're talking about bet regrets.

• 1:08:46Speaker 02

  Yes, let's hear it.

• 1:08:49Bill Simmons?

  I don't regret the Dallas bet. Like that Giants thing was one of those. You, you had to show me you were going to do that. They showed us.

• 1:08:55Speaker 02

  I'll take it. Take the L.

• 1:08:57Bill Simmons?

  Denver game, I, I regretted that day as I was watching the lead up to the game and Arrowhead and the excitement. I was like, oh, fuck. Like it just.

• 1:09:11Speaker 02

  Well, I stayed away. I ultimately did not play Denver, um, because I sat Sunday morning pondering what you're describing. They experienced like.

• 1:09:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. See, I didn't ponder.

• 1:09:21Speaker 02

  You know, the way that, that this, this Chiefs, with the way the league wants these Chiefs to return, you know, I was like.

• 1:09:27Bill Simmons?

  Holding penalties were unbelievable. Now granted, I don't know why Denver, uh, didn't have the ability to tackle. And this other thing, we need a Twitter account just that tells us what teams didn't care about preseason and hitting anyone. I don't feel like I have enough of a handle on that because it felt like there were multiple teams that were just like, yeah, probably should have, probably should have played our guys more. It's like, oh, thanks. Really?

• 1:09:49Speaker 02

  And we can call it fake Mike, Mike Tomlin because Tomlin made that great point on the Sunday night halftime. Was I with you when you, no, you, it was you and Cousin Sal.

• 1:09:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I was telling Sal about it.

• 1:09:58Speaker 02

  I could not agree more. He was a goddamn revelation. Let him have 10 minutes. They gave him five minutes, Maria. It was so compelling to hear him. He's upstanding on television and all of his points were like, wow, I'm learning something. This is so good.

• 1:10:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And he, he feels like as he gets more comfortable, he'll have some, I don't give a shit as he keeps going.

• 1:10:19Speaker 02

  He definitely didn't give a shit about what he was wearing because I, I got so many texts from people like, why is he dressed that way?

• 1:10:25Bill Simmons?

  He'll improve.

• 1:10:26Speaker 02

  He'll improve.

• 1:10:27Bill Simmons?

  Some trends heading into week two. Week two is a Michael Conrad memorial. Let's be careful out there. Um, there's overreactions every which way. There's road teams off a double-digit loss. You got to watch out for them. Spread's very favorable to them. Dogs under seven after a loss. Um, 0-1 teams against each other, favorable stuff for the dogs. Dogs in week two in general have been really good, but last, last year they were seven to nine. The week two teams with three plus days rest, like AKA the Patriots or Seattle. Hmm. Super favorable with that. And then.

• 1:11:04Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:11:04Bill Simmons?

  The three best coaches after a loss, basically this century were Peyton and McVeigh and Belichick, who is now going down in flames with North Carolina sadly. But, um, so there's some, some, some tidbits.

• 1:11:17Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:11:18Bill Simmons?

  To be afraid of. Uh, what's your, so I went, you went first last week. I'm going first this week.

• 1:11:24Speaker 02

  Awesome.

• 1:11:26Bill Simmons?

  My favorite game, I'm not scared off by the Nico Collins hamstring, whatever. I just assume he's probably even not going to play that much. Joe Burrow's got some sort of weird back situation. He's been, he made it one week before he was banged up.

• 1:11:42Bill Simmons?

  I just feel like before the season, I would have taken the Texans if this was below three.

• 1:11:48Bill Simmons?

  Kudos to the Bengals, they're definitely, the defense is better. Like with Sal and I talked about it Sunday, it's definitely a little improved.

• 1:11:53Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:11:54Bill Simmons?

  I think that the, the turnovers the Bucks had in that game were all unforced errors. All of them, all of them are stupid Bucks, just being dumb asses.

• 1:12:04Speaker 02

  Stupid Baker, really?

• 1:12:06Bill Simmons?

  And the Texans defense, which, you know, if you're, if you subscribe to the Tomlin thing about defenses take a couple of weeks to catch up. That's fine, but Buffalo was gonna lose. Josh Allen threw them the interception and Lassiter, who's one of the best D backs in the league, just dropped it. But if he catches it, they're one and O and we're talking about the Texans.

• 1:12:25Speaker 02

  They also had a fumble in that last drive that they recovered inside of, you know, their, their own 25 yard line. There were two turnover worthy plays on that last drive. And the goddamn Texans got to the nine yard line with enough time left to score a touchdown and win the game.

• 1:12:42Bill Simmons?

  It was the definition of an either or game.

• 1:12:44Speaker 02

  Yes, couldn't agree more.

• 1:12:46Bill Simmons?

  And I just like, I like the spot, I like their defense. And if I'm wrong about Sitsi, I'm wrong, I might be. But under three, I'm taking Houston minus two and a half. So that's my first pick.

• 1:12:57Speaker 02

  Great. Uh, what's the thing where we?

• 1:12:59Bill Simmons?

  Are you piggybacking, you're piggybacking me?

• 1:13:01Speaker 02

  God, are you kidding me?

• 1:13:02Bill Simmons?

  This is your second piggyback, it's two oh piggybacks.

• 1:13:05Speaker 02

  Well, here's the problem though. You and I in agreement, but let's, let's try and, and reverse that trend.

• 1:13:12Bill Simmons?

  No, we're good, we're, we're good.

• 1:13:13Speaker 02

  We piggybacked on the Cowboys for sure last week. Were there any other piggybacks by us?

• 1:13:21Speaker 02

  I don't think so. No, you, cause you definitely didn't take the Colts like my dumb ass.

• 1:13:25Bill Simmons?

  You know what I forgot? Well, yeah, the Colts, I didn't like it.

• 1:13:28Speaker 02

  Gee, many Christmas.

• 1:13:30Bill Simmons?

  The one thing I thought that I wish I'd put more thought in with the Giants. Because that, like for the season, I didn't like their chances because I didn't think Dart and Scatabo would stay healthy.

• 1:13:39Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:13:40Bill Simmons?

  But they were healthy in week one and you know, I was putting too much faith in the Cowboys to fix their defense with all these new guys, but I, I I really regret not taking Arizona. I loved Arizona the whole week and I ended up, I ended up being a fucking coward about it. I didn't, I didn't think they were gonna win, but I just thought that game was gonna be close and I choked. All right. So you, so you're piggybacking my Houston pick.

• 1:14:04Speaker 02

  Sure am. That's one of the ones I have here. You, you can count on it. Nothing's moved me off my priors with Houston. That was a 50 50 game. It was an awesome game. I quite enjoyed it. It was unexpected. I loved the innovation by the Bills. So like, you know what we're gonna do? We're just gonna go deep. We're gonna go deep and we're gonna keep going deep. We'll go deep. We're not gonna run the ball. We're just gonna throw it the F down the field with Josh Allen. I loved it. It was great.

• 1:14:28Bill Simmons?

  I like Houston at home.

• 1:14:30Speaker 02

  Me too.

• 1:14:30Bill Simmons?

  I like the fact that they're 0-1 and not 1-0, I think is good for this. They need the game more and and I like their special teams. I just, I think they win by three at least.

• 1:14:42Speaker 02

  Me too.

• 1:14:42Bill Simmons?

  All right. So now I'm up. I have my second pick.

• 1:14:48Bill Simmons?

  Heavy rain for Jets Packers. Looks like a 95% chance of heavy rain.

• 1:14:58Bill Simmons?

  I just thought Green Bay losing that Minnesota, I think Green Bay's not gonna be good this year. I watched that whole game. I don't think they can run the ball at all.

• 1:15:09Bill Simmons?

  The offensive line is, people are gonna blame the Flores and the 78% blitz, but I also don't think the offensive line is good.

• 1:15:18Speaker 02

  It's not.

• 1:15:19Bill Simmons?

  I don't think they have a pass rush. Carson Wentz, who looked broken down and looked like he might not finish the game was somehow zinging it around. The LaFleur thing, him going 0-2 feels right to me. I actually like the money line too for the Jets for that. I think they can win the game. I don't understand the line house. It's plus three and a half Jets at home. I don't understand the line. I don't understand how you, forget about Jets killing the Titans, because the Titans might be terrible and that's an overreaction game. I don't understand how people after watching Packers Minnesota would think the Packers are better than the Jets. I know Fitzpatrick's out. I know there's some secondary stuff with the Jets, but I just, to me, this is a pick 'em. So why wouldn't I take the three and a half?

• 1:16:03Speaker 02

  The look ahead for this game, um, cause I wanted to see some line movement based on week one results was Packers by five and a half. And I guess the market is like, the, the most we can move this by is just the two points that it's down to now, the three and a half.

• 1:16:20Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:16:20Speaker 02

  But I wouldn't be surprised, man, if, if as the weekend comes in and, and Jets Nation really gets going, you're, you're making a lot of good. I, I was skeptical of two teams and one of my, uh, strongest positions coming into this season. When we talked about the NFC North, I had Green Bay finishing fourth in that division. I made a bet on that. I had Green Bay way under their win total. I had Green Bay to miss the playoffs.

• 1:16:47Bill Simmons?

  I had them under and to miss the playoffs as well.

• 1:16:50Speaker 02

  I feel pretty good. I feel pretty validated and, and I won't talk about the Kansas City Chiefs, who was the other team that I was skeptical of, but this, this Chargers, I mean, this Packers team is in rough straits.

• 1:17:00Bill Simmons?

  So here's the thing, heavy rain. You're gonna have to run the ball at least a little bit. This Jacobs thing is a massive deal, but they don't have him. Their running backs that they have Lloyd and the other guy, like, come on. And you have a bad offensive line to begin with. You have three receivers.

• 1:17:16Speaker 02

  The, the one place they had that an advantage is the explosives on, on, in the receiver room. And they used those to, to great effect against Minnesota when they were up 22 to 10. I mean, uh, Watson looked awesome.

• 1:17:31Bill Simmons?

  It was such an awful loss and it, it does feel like this LaFleur thing is now in the air. And I just feel like on Sunday night, they're gonna be 0-2 and Sal and I are gonna be like, what happens now? This team's 0-2, they just lost to Carson Wentz and Geno Smith. Now what?

• 1:17:50Speaker 02

  That's bad.

• 1:17:51Bill Simmons?

  So I am gonna take Jets plus three and a half and I, I wanted to grab it now instead of waiting till Sunday. Cause I think that line's gonna go down and the under will go down. I like the under in that game too, but, um, that's where I'm going for my second one. What do you got?

• 1:18:06Speaker 02

  I am just going right back to the well with the Denver Broncos. They're laying less than a field goal at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are entering this game on a nine and O run, both straight up and against the spread in regular season games.

• 1:18:22Bill Simmons?

  Yep.

• 1:18:23Speaker 02

  Nothing but, uh, immense respect for Liam Cohen and Duval. They did exactly what they were supposed to do against the Browns. They kicked ass. They didn't have to really reveal anything. They barely blitzed at all against, uh, uh, the Browns. But this is just going back to, you mentioned it, Sean Payton coming off of a loss. The Broncos, if they are to achieve anything that's similar to, now I, I only had them winning, you know, 10, 11 games most, but their win total was nine and a half. The market was accurate about that. If they're going to do that, then it needs to be this defense who set a record.

• 1:19:04Speaker 02

  If, if I'm, if I'm understanding it correctly, the X network guys had this, they had 248 missed tackle yards.

• 1:19:13Bill Simmons?

  I saw this, I saw this on social media. Yeah. It felt worse. It felt like it was 500.

• 1:19:19Speaker 02

  Well, the most in NFL history, that's, that's, that's kind of important.

• 1:19:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:19:24Speaker 02

  And they were dominant in terms of defending Mahomes, but that was the wrong guy to defend. It didn't matter. If you can't tackle Kenneth Walker, he, his yards after contact were incredible. They couldn't knock him off of, of his center in any way, shape or form. The duos that, it was a reminder, and this is what I regret with the Chiefs. Andy Reid was in his bag and Eric, Andy Reid and, and Biennium, like those guys were ready for week one football.

• 1:19:54Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they were like, we have now reinvented ourselves and here's what we did.

• 1:19:58Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:19:58Bill Simmons?

  Well, there was a ton of talk this week, stuff written, people talking about podcasts about the quarterbacks being under center, more play action, more running, bigger teams. This is stuff that they did a year ago and some of the smarter teams are already doing it. And, um, I wonder like, can you keep taking teams by surprise with that? Like if I'm playing, if I'm the Rams, I'm playing the Giants this week. Now I know what's coming. If I'm playing the Chiefs, same thing. I, it felt like the Broncos didn't know, were, were kinda like taken aback. Like, oh, this is, you're playing this way? What's going on? And then Walker was great. He was fantastic.

• 1:20:37Speaker 02

  He was amazing. Yeah. They set him up for explosives.

• 1:20:40Bill Simmons?

  So you're taking, you're taking Broncos minus two and a half?

• 1:20:43Speaker 02

  I'm taking, I'm laying the two and a half with the Broncos at home against Jacksonville. Just an early season altitude game for the Jags, just that, that tough situation. And, you know, at some point regression in terms of these regular season games. And I think the true identity of Denver comes out this week and, and they get over quickly. The stench of, of the week one, one bad performance.

• 1:21:05Bill Simmons?

  So I have two fares with the Broncos.

• 1:21:10Bill Simmons?

  One is, I didn't like their run game at all, and it doesn't feel like they've settled on anybody. And it was just this rotating group of dudes. It almost felt Chiefs-like to me. That wasn't great. Here's why I stayed away from this from a Broncos standpoint. What was it? Early December, late November last year, the Jags went in there and they, they curb stomped them.

• 1:21:33Speaker 02

  They did.

• 1:21:33Bill Simmons?

  And I do, I do really feel like there's something about that. When you go back to a place where you kicked ass, that you get this added little bit of a hop in your step.

• 1:21:43Speaker 02

  Swagger.

• 1:21:44Bill Simmons?

  And I, it's funny, I have this game in my tees, but I have it the opposite way.

• 1:21:51Speaker 02

  I get it. Sure. The plus two and a half up to plus eight and a half. That makes sense.

• 1:21:54Bill Simmons?

  I had the Jags up to eight and a half because I think they could win. And even if they can't win, there's cheap touchdown potential. The third thing I didn't like about that game, and I didn't really get a good answer for one way or the other, the Chiefs Broncos game. I thought Bo Nix looked terrible.

• 1:22:09Speaker 02

  He looked awful.

• 1:22:10Bill Simmons?

  And I don't know if he's healthy. And I actually thought it could have been worse than what the damage was. And this is something Sal's been talking about the whole offseason. Like, we talk about Mahomes coming back. Why don't we talk about Bo Nix? I thought Bo Nix looked awful. And I don't know, the Jags defense obviously isn't great. He's had another week, but I think there's a chance he might just not be good for the first month of the season. And this Jags team, I know, I know they're, they're on a hot streak. And if you go through it, it's pretty shaky. Except for the time they went into Denver and fucking housed them.

• 1:22:42Speaker 02

  Kicked their ass, yes.

• 1:22:44Bill Simmons?

  So I'm going, I'm going with them as half of my teaser like.

• 1:22:47Speaker 02

  That makes sense. And, and you know, I don't have a strong counter for the Bo Nix proposition. It's just, there was quite a bit of this Jekyll and Hyde performance out of Bo Nix last season, right? And, and he, in unexpected places against very good teams, came through with some, some outstanding performances. And then looked like shit, you know, the very next week. I mean, I'll never forget the international game against the Jets, where it looked like, you know, he, he couldn't throw the ball four yards down the field, but he did go into Philadelphia and, and come back against them and beat them in the fourth quarter. He did go into Houston and beat them in the fourth quarter, so.

• 1:23:27Bill Simmons?

  Do you know what the other leg of my tease is?

• 1:23:30Speaker 02

  Uh, it's got a Bucks down to two and a half?

• 1:23:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:23:34Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:23:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, yes. Yes, sir.

• 1:23:39Speaker 02

  Yeah, have to.

• 1:23:39Bill Simmons?

  Listen, we talked about this a week ago. We said, almost getting emotional, running out of time to bet against Deshaun Watson in NFL football game. He came out of the gates, he was just abjectly horrific. They were down 24-0 in five minutes. He padded his stats late. He had a great throw to Denzel Boston for a touchdown, where it was like, whoa. And then you look at the bottom and it was 34 to three, they're down, when he hit Denzel Boston. This is it. This is our last chance to bet against this guy.

• 1:24:11Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:24:11Bill Simmons?

  And if he's gonna beat my tease of Bucks down to minus two and a half with Jags plus eight and a half, God bless him. I don't think he will. And I don't think we'll ever see him quarterback another team after this week.

• 1:24:22Speaker 02

  I could not agree more. And I have to figure out the, the money line parlays that I'm gonna put the Bucks into, because it's gonna be several. I mean, I just have to, you have to be careful. I guess it's gonna be, you know, something like the, the Niners, and, and the Bucks, and I, I don't know. There aren't very many teams.

• 1:24:41Bill Simmons?

  13-point teases for you?

• 1:24:43Speaker 02

  Some probably.

• 1:24:44Bill Simmons?

  Put some UCLA in there?

• 1:24:45Speaker 02

  Probably.

• 1:24:46Bill Simmons?

  So my fears with the Bucks, their defense

• 1:24:52Bill Simmons?

  really was bad against Cincinnati. I didn't, I didn't feel like they had the kind of pressure, and I can't tell.

• 1:24:56Speaker 02

  That's the problem.

• 1:24:57Bill Simmons?

  We always talk about week one to week two, what did we learn from week one? And you could go door A or door B with what we learned. So it's like, do the Bengals now have a really good offensive line? Or did we overrate the Bucks' front seven? So we're gonna find out this week. One way or the other. And same thing with Arizona and the, and the Chargers. Does Arizona have actually a good offense with the floor and, and the weapons they have and they, and multiple good running backs? Or do the Chargers just suck? Right? After week two, I'm gonna have an answer for that. So for this one, I'm a little scared of the Bucks' defense, but what am I gonna be scared with the, with the Browns? Like, they can't block, and they have a terrible quarterback.

• 1:25:38Speaker 02

  If you're looking for the silver lining, remember, the, the Bengals had four field goals.

• 1:25:45Speaker 02

  That, they, he had

• 1:25:46Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:25:46Speaker 02

  multiple 50-yard

• 1:25:48Bill Simmons?

  They got a pick six.

• 1:25:49Speaker 02

  McPherson. And they had, right, exactly. So a defensive touchdown, plus four field goals, that's 19 of their 33 points.

• 1:25:57Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:25:57Speaker 02

  So if you're looking for

• 1:25:58Bill Simmons?

  There was bad pressure rate stuff with the, with the Bucks.

• 1:26:01Speaker 02

  Yes, there was.

• 1:26:02Bill Simmons?

  Think that they were like seven for 40 or something.

• 1:26:04Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:26:05Bill Simmons?

  This, where do you stand on this Havik stat?

• 1:26:09Speaker 02

  I like it. I think it's, it's informative.

• 1:26:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so that, they released the top week one NFL defenses in Havik.

• 1:26:19Bill Simmons?

  Who do you think the number one defense was?

• 1:26:22Speaker 02

  In Havik?

• 1:26:25Bill Simmons?

  You would think the Vikings, right? Because they were second. They were not first.

• 1:26:29Speaker 02

  Oh, I, I, I might guess the Jets.

• 1:26:32Bill Simmons?

  It was the Las Vegas Raiders at 56%.

• 1:26:36Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:26:36Bill Simmons?

  Now, they're playing Miami, and that was why.

• 1:26:39Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:26:40Bill Simmons?

  The Cardinals were third, which is either a good sign for them or a terrible, terrible sign for the Chargers. Coming up last was the Titans at 16%. And coming up second to last was the Chargers at 19%, which goes in line with everything we saw from that, that terrible performance. But

• 1:27:01Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:27:01Bill Simmons?

  The reason I mentioned that, the Bucks were

• 1:27:07Bill Simmons?

  21st. Not, not awesome. We're, we're creating a lot of havoc. Thought they would do better. All right. So my tease is Bucks, Jags. What do you have for your third pick?

• 1:27:18Speaker 02

  Uh, I, I'll, I'll just share my tease before I get to my fourth.

• 1:27:23Bill Simmons?

  Let's hear it.

• 1:27:24Speaker 02

  I'm going into Nashville because I feel like that situation with Sala and, and Dayball, and they have a quarterback problem. I mean, I don't know how much more we, we need to see. If you go into the, the, the numbers, the, the second tier numbers for Cam Ward, he is missing open receivers. He's missing them badly.

• 1:27:48Bill Simmons?

  This happened last year, too.

• 1:27:50Speaker 02

  He's not, like, even when he has time, he, he's, he's bad. They don't give him time. They can't establish the run. And the defense was an, an abomination against a Jets team with, you know, a middle of the road offensive line. Maybe it's better than, than we're giving it credit for. Prees Hall had a day, for sure.

• 1:28:11Bill Simmons?

  There was some good offensive line highlights for the Jets. A couple of Jets fans, because they also, they have all these tight ends. So they have a couple of good linemen, but then they could also bring these different tight ends in. They were kind of beating the shit out of the Titans. But that might say more about the Titans. I don't know.

• 1:28:27Speaker 02

  I think it does. Uh, I don't trust the Eagles at all. I watched the entirety of that Eagles-Washington game. Washington absolutely, positively had many, many chances to win that game outright. And

• 1:28:41Bill Simmons?

  You kind of took it to their O-line, too. Sal and I talked about that Sunday. I, I felt like that was the worst an Eagles offensive line has looked to me.

• 1:28:49Speaker 02

  And, and, and Dickerson's out now. I mean, he's just, he couldn't, he, he tried to go, he played, he played poorly. And Washington's new defense got in there and got after their ass. So the way I'm playing this Eagles-Titans game, it's an in-game tease.

• 1:29:04Bill Simmons?

  Oh.

• 1:29:04Speaker 02

  I am combining, let me pull up the, the, make sure I get the total correct.

• 1:29:09Bill Simmons?

  You cheating? Oh, you're doing both sides? Okay.

• 1:29:11Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm allowed to do it.

• 1:29:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you are.

• 1:29:13Speaker 02

  I'm allowed to tease the Eagles from seven down to one.

• 1:29:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:29:18Speaker 02

  That's six points. And then I'm teasing the total in that game from 39 and a half up to 45 and a half.

• 1:29:26Bill Simmons?

  So that, so under 45, you win.

• 1:29:29Speaker 02

  Under 45 and a half, and Eagles basically the win outright. I don't, I can't come up with points in this game. I, I have, I can't have, I don't have a scenario under which a defense that feels a little bit, you know, embarrassed by the, the two touchdowns they gave up in the fourth quarter to Jane Daniels and, and Washington, coming in ready to pin their ears back against an offensive line in Tennessee that's not very good, and that can't establish the run, and certainly can't throw the ball downfield. And I feel the same way in terms of that offense. That offense really wants to get moving. They were not thrilled with, you know, the Sean Mannion experiment in, in week one. So I like the Eagles to come in and kick ass, but I am not laying points with this Eagles team until further notice.

• 1:30:13Speaker 02

  So Eagles just basically win outright, minus one, and under 45 and a half. I don't see the Titans getting to 17 points in this game. I think I'll be lucky to get to 14 points, and I'm fine with like, I win this bet if it's 30 to 14 Eagles.

• 1:30:28Bill Simmons?

  We should mention, we're doing this thing with FanDuel all season. They're doing minus 110 for the teasers. They're gonna put all of our teasers, which they did last week, was very cool. And you could just bet on our teaser up to 50 bucks if you like one of them. And you get it at the minus 110 juice. Here's why this tease worries me, House.

• 1:30:47Speaker 02

  Listening.

• 1:30:48Bill Simmons?

  It's gonna be like 130 degrees in Nashville.

• 1:30:51Speaker 02

  I saw that. Yes, it is.

• 1:30:53Bill Simmons?

  That's, that's one thing.

• 1:30:55Speaker 02

  I don't think that gives the Titans an advantage. But go ahead.

• 1:30:59Bill Simmons?

  I just hate the road team and the superhuman. And maybe it doesn't give anyone an advantage. It helps your under. It makes me like the under more.

• 1:31:08Speaker 02

  Exactly.

• 1:31:08Bill Simmons?

  But, um, I thought the Eagles looked terrible.

• 1:31:13Bill Simmons?

  Like I, and you know, I really, my number one regret of all of the whole offseason was being too anti Harbaugh and not being more kind of thoughtful about the Giants and just the fact that every single year we have a worst of first team in a division. And I've been betting on that year after year. And this was the year I was like, you know what? We're not going to have one this year. You look at the division now, Philly's minus 110, Dallas is plus 320, the Giants are down to plus 350 for that division.

• 1:31:44Speaker 02

  Seems fair.

• 1:31:45Bill Simmons?

  You could argue that's still an incredible price and I don't know if they have less talent than Philly at this point. Philly has just bled out some talent.

• 1:31:54Speaker 02

  Yeah, their defenses. Wait till they get Jonathan Greer back.

• 1:31:58Bill Simmons?

  I know their defense is good. I'm talking about right now where part of the, part of the appeal of Philly was like this incredible offensive line and they just don't have it anymore.

• 1:32:07Speaker 02

  No, I agree. The offensive line is not incredible.

• 1:32:10Bill Simmons?

  And they have, I thought when I did my roster rankings, they were one of the top four for talent. But when you watched it against Washington, I was like, where is it?

• 1:32:19Speaker 02

  No.

• 1:32:20Bill Simmons?

  And Cooper DeJong got his ass kicked.

• 1:32:22Speaker 02

  I, I, one of the, my, my pride moments for the week was Saquon over 75 and a half rushing yards and he got there because he had one 42 yard run. Otherwise, yards per carry was under three yards. The Eagles couldn't establish the run.

• 1:32:39Bill Simmons?

  So if you're looking at Philly, Dallas and the Giants, do you think those odds for those three teams should be closer than minus 110, plus 320, plus 350? And do you think the Giants should be higher than Dallas for odds? Or is that just a weak one overreaction?

• 1:32:54Speaker 02

  No, I don't think that's a, an overreaction at all. They should at least be equal. It's crazy that, that, I mean, the Giants beat Dallas. So for, they've already gotten a leg up.

• 1:33:05Bill Simmons?

  If they can keep Dart healthy and.

• 1:33:07Speaker 02

  The division outcome.

• 1:33:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And maybe do what the Pats did with Drake May last year, then maybe they could do it. There's some other.

• 1:33:13Speaker 02

  The Giants have a tough schedule. That's part of the reason why I'm skeptical.

• 1:33:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they almost have to win this week to get you excited about it. But some other division winners, by the way, the Bills, but we're taping this before the Thursday game, but the Bills are minus 185. Ravens minus 130, Cincinnati's plus 175 for the AFC North. Houston's plus 125, Jags are plus 160. Any of these excite you?

• 1:33:39Speaker 02

  I already have exposure to Houston to win their division and Cincinnati to win the AFC North. And I'll stick with the price I have. I have better prices than those.

• 1:33:48Bill Simmons?

  This is on Fanduel. Casey is minus 115 now. Denver's plus 290 and the Chargers are plus 370. And by the way, the Chargers are, I would completely stay away from that.

• 1:34:00Speaker 02

  The only thing to bet the Chargers is to miss the playoffs and you have to hold your nose and lay the juice. Yeah.

• 1:34:06Bill Simmons?

  Detroit's plus 160 for their division. The Bears are plus 200. Tampa's still plus 150 for the NFC South, which to me seems like a steal. And then in the NFC West, Rams plus 170, Niners plus 170, Seattle plus 220. So that's probably the liveliest of all of them. But if you had to bet any of those, which one would you bet?

• 1:34:24Speaker 02

  Uh.

• 1:34:25Bill Simmons?

  Right now with those odds.

• 1:34:28Speaker 02

  I'm trying to think because I already had, well, yeah, with those odds, let me think about this. Now, I have the Niners already close to three to one. So I know that doesn't help me any. I have the Niners, I have Houston. Uh, it's got to be the Bucks. The Bucks at plus 150. I'll just keep throwing money at Tampa. I think they're going to be, win 10 games this season.

• 1:34:46Bill Simmons?

  That price is better after this Cleveland game.

• 1:34:49Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 1:34:50Bill Simmons?

  I think Bears at two to one is fun. Just because they might have, their offense might be the best thing anyone has in that division. Um, I think Giants at plus 350 is a good price still, I think. But I think you, I think you wait a week, they lose, probably lose to the Rams, right? You wait a week and then you do it. Yeah.

• 1:35:09Speaker 02

  You would think that they, they're going to lose to the Rams.

• 1:35:11Bill Simmons?

  And if they don't lose to the Rams, then the price is going to drop and you miss the window.

• 1:35:15Speaker 02

  Because they're, they're going to go on a run after that Rams game. They, they play Tennessee at home, they play Arizona at home. Now Arizona might be, you know, we might be talking about the 2-0 Arizona. Then they come to Washington and then they're home against the Saints. So the first chunk of the Giants' schedule, super favorable, but then it ramps up. They travel to Houston, they travel to Philly, they get Washington again, home against Jacksonville. But there's a, San Francisco's on the schedule, Seattle's on the schedule. There's a bunch of teams.

• 1:35:40Bill Simmons?

  A lot of flying.

• 1:35:41Speaker 02

  That la, the latter half of it, it gets really, you know, challenging for them. And if you don't believe that, that Scatabo and Dart could stay healthy, then, you know.

• 1:35:52Bill Simmons?

  I looked at that when I did all my prep in August and that scared me the most, that second half, like if they didn't have those guys.

• 1:35:59Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:36:00Bill Simmons?

  Playoffs. Jets are plus 385. Do you think they can sneak in the back door and go 10 and 7? I'm not saying they will, but I just, four to one odds and they might be 2-0 after this weekend. Dallas is still plus 146. Pittsburgh's plus 148. The Giants are plus 162 to make the playoffs. But here was the one that jumped out to me, Arizona 9-1.

• 1:36:27Speaker 02

  Oh, wow.

• 1:36:29Bill Simmons?

  It's really high, but man, they were really impressive on Sunday. I like, I really didn't feel like it was a fluke.

• 1:36:35Speaker 02

  On paper, they have the hardest schedule in the league.

• 1:36:39Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I get it. I get it. That's why I signed to one. The no playoffs bets were more interesting to me. Green Bay's minus 180, Chargers are minus 156, Minnesota's minus 120, Denver's minus 106, Jags plus 130, Philly plus 176, Cincy plus 235, and then the Rams plus 245. But I thought that Chargers, if you parlay the Chargers minus 156 with Green Bay minus 180.

• 1:37:04Speaker 02

  Okay, okay.

• 1:37:06Bill Simmons?

  I'm in the plus with that. That's like a plus 140.

• 1:37:09Speaker 02

  FanDuel let you do that? That's a nice parlay. I like that one. That's a good one.

• 1:37:12Bill Simmons?

  Are Green Bay or the Chargers making the playoffs? Like right now, I would say no.

• 1:37:16Speaker 02

  Nah. I mean, we're, we're overreacting, of course. It's, it's a requirement of this week.

• 1:37:21Bill Simmons?

  I didn't like those teams that much to begin with, especially the Packers.

• 1:37:24Speaker 02

  I knew. I, I have all that. I had so much money against Green Bay, like I said. Um, the one thing I, I did immediately after Monday was bet the Chiefs every which way. I bet them over 10 and a half wins. I bet them to win the division. I mean, these are all shitty prices. Um, but I bet them to win the division. I bet them to get to 11 wins and I bet them to make the playoffs. Um, because that was a, an absolute, like, what a reminder of, of what Reed and B. N. M. are capable of and Spags with that defense, especially the secondary.

• 1:37:58Bill Simmons?

  You had B. N. M. You couldn't stand him.

• 1:38:00Speaker 02

  He, he was a, not, not good here.

• 1:38:03Bill Simmons?

  He was terrible. You made fun of him all the time.

• 1:38:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, he wasn't good here. It didn't work. It works with Andy Reid.

• 1:38:12Bill Simmons?

  My last pick. So we have, uh, we each have done three.

• 1:38:16Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:38:17Bill Simmons?

  But we have to do four.

• 1:38:20Speaker 02

  Don't do it.

• 1:38:21Bill Simmons?

  What do you think I'm going to do? Tell me.

• 1:38:23Speaker 02

  I don't know. Actually, I really, I genuinely don't know, but I, I, I'm fearful. Are we allowed to double piggyback?

• 1:38:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:38:32Speaker 02

  There's only one game that, on the entire slate. I hate this slate. I, I mean.

• 1:38:36Bill Simmons?

  I didn't really like it either.

• 1:38:37Speaker 02

  I'm not, I'm not laying points with, with Drew Lock on the road. I'm not laying, you know, grabbing points with, with stupid Danny Dimes. I mean, it's like, there's so many bad quarterbacks.

• 1:38:48Bill Simmons?

  I'll talk about the three that I almost tick. I'm taking the Patriots minus four and a half at home against the Steelers.

• 1:38:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, okay. I don't mind this at all. I could talk myself into it.

• 1:39:00Bill Simmons?

  There's incredible numbers for the teams that have three plus day rest in week two.

• 1:39:05Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:39:06Bill Simmons?

  Um, I think they were, they kind of threw people off the scent in week one because of Drew Lock and then they fell apart in the fourth quarter and A.J. got hurt. Um, I think they had a terrible game plan against the Rams. I mean, I, against Seahawks. I didn't understand it at all. Um, Henderson is back this week, which ain't nothing.

• 1:39:26Speaker 02

  That's huge.

• 1:39:27Bill Simmons?

  They lost to this team a year ago in a game where they turned the ball over five times. It wasn't like Pittsburgh, it wasn't like Jacksonville going into Denver and just housing Denver, like.

• 1:39:36Speaker 02

  Red zone turnovers too.

• 1:39:37Bill Simmons?

  The dumbest fucking loss of the, of the year. Um, and I, I just think they're not going 0-2. They have too much talent. And watching that Steelers Falcons game closely, it was funny because Sal and I were talking about how, you know, kind of gross the Steelers' offense was. And there's some Steeler fans that were going, yo, what game, what were you watching? Rodgers was airing it out because Rodgers was throwing like almost nine yards per attempt. But he was trying to get PIs most of the time and he doesn't have the receivers and his running backs are terrible. Like for, for whatever their offensive line, I'd like, the team just looks slow to me. I kind of liked Rico Dowdell, but I, I just didn't

• 1:40:18Bill Simmons?

  think Dowdell or Warren looked good in that game. Um, and I think the Pats are going to swallow up the run. I think they're going to go after Rodgers. I think this is a must win for the Patriots. So we'll see. If they lose this game, it's officially the year from hell. I'm not scared of the minus four and a half. I feel like it should probably be a little bit higher. Um, and I just think they win by seven plus.

• 1:40:42Speaker 02

  It might not surprise anybody. I might join you Sunday morning with, with the fifth pick. Cause I, I just don't love this slate and I just want to let a couple more days percolate.

• 1:40:51Bill Simmons?

  I don't love it either. And I don't, I honestly don't love that pick that much, but it was the, it was the one that made me feel the safest. I'll go through the other choices after, but that was the one that I was like, ah, I, I'm going to be mad if I didn't do this.

• 1:41:07Speaker 02

  Well, I, I kind of landed on a, on a similar one and I'm going to take a quick, uh, drink of water here.

• 1:41:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we've been talking for an hour straight.

• 1:41:19Speaker 02

  Same sentiment. It's San Francisco laying less than two touchdowns at home against Miami. And it might be the case that they should be favored by 17 or something, right? We just don't, the market doesn't have its arms around.

• 1:41:34Bill Simmons?

  How terrible they are.

• 1:41:35Speaker 02

  This Miami team is. And so I'm just gonna go ahead and grab it. They have an incredible rest situation, except for the fact that they were on the other side of the world.

• 1:41:47Bill Simmons?

  I'm scared of that.

• 1:41:47Speaker 02

  And they spent a whole week on that other side of the world. Now, they did come home promptly. But, you know, every which way, a two touchdown in San Francisco under Shanahan has been good as a double-digit favorite, not incredible, but good. A winning record as a double-digit favorite. But this is really, I don't know how many more opportunities when Miami is playing a good team, that it's gonna be less than two touchdowns. And that's really what I'm jumping into with both feet. Chop Robinson, looks like he's gonna be out. I mean, you're worried about the Miami pass rush anyway, like, no. And I just love.

• 1:42:26Bill Simmons?

  Their defense is awful. It's like really awful. I actually thought, oh, I thought Vegas could have had more stuff. And eventually they were just trying to shut down Gentey. And there was so much open for them passing-wise, but they had Cousins and terrible receivers. But not just did not have terrible receivers.

• 1:42:44Speaker 02

  If Shanahan wants to run the same kind of offense that they just did against the Rams, I don't see why they can't repeat what they were doing. Very fast, very of tempo, short, short yardage.

• 1:42:54Bill Simmons?

  I looked at it, cuz it's almost like if you're using college football logic, you just have to treat this like this is Ohio State at home against some shitty team, and they should be favored by 28. Miami's awful. And there's a real chance Miami doesn't win a game for a while. I just was freaked out by the Australia trip. I don't know, I don't know if they're gonna be zombies for that entire game.

• 1:43:16Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm not worried about a backdoor cover, famous last words. But that's the one thing I felt best about.

• 1:43:22Bill Simmons?

  So the ones I looked at really closely, I can't believe neither of us have the Panthers. I'm a little scared of Penix playing in that game cuz I don't love Penix.

• 1:43:32Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:43:33Bill Simmons?

  But at least he's not Tua or Cooper Rush or whoever the other guy is. And, you know, I, he's not good. I'm not saying he's good.

• 1:43:43Speaker 02

  No, you have dueling trends, though, with that game. You have the Panthers, who are 0-9 in their last nine games against the spread as a favorite.

• 1:43:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:43:52Speaker 02

  Versus 9-0 in their last nine games coming off of a loss.

• 1:43:56Bill Simmons?

  Well, but then you have two, you have more trends cuz you have the two 0-1 teams. Take the dog. You have the home dog in a divisional game.

• 1:44:04Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 1:44:05Bill Simmons?

  You have.

• 1:44:06Speaker 02

  I honestly didn't think Atlanta looked that terrible. I was very nervous watching that Pittsburgh game. They missed two field goals that might have changed things a bit.

• 1:44:16Bill Simmons?

  Their offense definitely moved the ball. Their defense is bad. And the Panthers put up 37.

• 1:44:23Speaker 02

  They did.

• 1:44:23Bill Simmons?

  37 points against the Bears, and it could have even been more than that. But anyway, I just couldn't do it cuz the Panthers' defense was so bad. What's worse than you take the Panthers minus 2-0 and it's like, oh, Bijon Robinson is third touchdown. They stay away. So the second one is also NFC South, Saints plus 8.5 against Baltimore. You know, Flowers is out. The rookie's out. Lane's out. This whole explosive, crazy offense is gonna be a little different. I couldn't get over the OT game with the Saints and, and the fact that they were down 20-0 even before, or 24-0, whatever it was, 21-0. I was gonna get it right if I kept mentioning scores. And they kind of rallied back late.

• 1:45:08Bill Simmons?

  I love the cheap touchdown potential here.

• 1:45:11Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:45:12Bill Simmons?

  I'm, this might end up being my fifth pick when we get to Sunday, but I didn't wanna do it now, and I wanna see, you know, who's healthy for this one.

• 1:45:20Speaker 02

  The crazy thing is, if Harbaugh was still the Ravens coach, I would like this a lot more.

• 1:45:25Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:45:26Speaker 02

  I would really like the backdoor, the week two soft spot for the Ravens after coming out roaring.

• 1:45:30Bill Simmons?

  We've seen them lose this game, or we've seen them lose a tease. I think it's a stay away.

• 1:45:34Speaker 02

  The Raiders, I, the problem I have with this game is this is by a long shot, by quite a bit, the best defense that Tyler Shuck will have played against in his entire NFL career. He's never seen a defense as talented as this defense. And Matta Boukay is supposed to be playing in this game. And then, okay, so, I mean, that's why I didn't do anything with it. But I understand the instinct in terms of grabbing the Saints.

• 1:45:59Bill Simmons?

  And we also have, we might have an NFC South situation where when they actually play good teams, they just get their asses kicked. The third one I really wanted to do, and if it was 7.5, I would have done, is Raiders against the Chargers. Hmm. Raiders plus 6.5. It's in LA, I think there's gonna be a lot of Raiders fans there, and I don't think the Chargers are good. But I was really trying not to do the double overreaction pick in Week 2. See, the Chargers who couldn't have looked worse, and the Raiders who played the Dolphins, who actually looked okay, better than we thought. And I couldn't get there. I wish this was 8.5, but there's a reason it's 6.5 cuz the Chargers looked terrible. So I end up staying away.

• 1:46:40Bill Simmons?

  I might end up talking myself into it on Sunday if it gets to 7.

• 1:46:45Speaker 02

  I don't wanna have anything to do with it. I do think that if Mixtape Mikey and this Chargers offense are going to get right, it will come under these circumstances. Even, even with McConkey, he's out, out, right? He's definitely out.

• 1:47:02Bill Simmons?

  It seems like he's out. Cards Seahawks was another one cuz Cards are 4.5 underdogs at home.

• 1:47:08Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:47:09Bill Simmons?

  But the Seahawks have 10 days rest. I'm, Cards do it again, and I'll back you.

• 1:47:14Speaker 02

  Yeah, Drew Lock on the road.

• 1:47:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. I tried to talk, I test drove it, I couldn't get there. And then the last one, Rams 7.5 against the Giants.

• 1:47:24Speaker 02

  Hmm, interesting.

• 1:47:26Bill Simmons?

  I thought long and hard about the Rams in a tease. I'm thinking like, are they really gonna go 0-2? And I, it's weird, I couldn't get there because I kept playing the game out in my head. And there was this scenario, the Giants just bullied their front seven without Myles Garrett and without Donald. Cuz I don't think, if Donald plays, he plays 25 snaps, I don't even think we're gonna see him. And I could just kind of wanna watch the game and not have anything on it, was where it landed.

• 1:47:56Speaker 02

  I like that. I'm glad that you landed there. I'm not gonna bet on this game. I will not be talking myself into the Giants, even though that was the direction I would head. The question is, can they play the same kind of ball control that they played against Dallas? They just didn't let Dallas possess the ball. Dallas' efficiency numbers.

• 1:48:14Bill Simmons?

  Idiotic, too. I mean, that's dumbass shit.

• 1:48:17Speaker 02

  Same old Cowboys, holy, I'm thrilled. As a Washington fan, I'm thrilled to see Dallas be as dumb as, as ever and incapable of responding to, to basic NFL defensive adjustments.

• 1:48:30Bill Simmons?

  So funny.

• 1:48:31Speaker 02

  Chef's kiss, immaculate performance. But the, the, the problem with the Giants is their secondary is really bad. And we, we might see Matthew Stafford just get going.

• 1:48:42Bill Simmons?

  So the one you're leaning toward on, as, cuz we're gonna do Sunday picks that we put on social about two hours for the game. The one you're leaning toward is what?

• 1:48:51Speaker 02

  It's a decent chance it's the Pats. I don't like taking all these home favorites.

• 1:48:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:48:56Speaker 02

  But I look at the dogs, and I'm, I can't bet on Carson Wentz. I can't bet on, on Daniel Jones. I can't bet on, on, you know, Drew Lock as a favorite, as a road favorite. Like, I just, we're already into this, this shit sandwich in terms of these quarterbacks. I can't have anything to do with the Carolina game. I mean, just don't wanna have anything to do with it. It's not crazy that I would land on Bucks. I might get myself to there with, with the Buccaneers.

• 1:49:24Bill Simmons?

  Eight and a half, just a farewell to Deshaun.

• 1:49:26Speaker 02

  Yes, yeah, I might get there.

• 1:49:28Bill Simmons?

  I looked at the Chiefs minus 6.5 for a little bit cuz I thought Jones looked so bad last week.

• 1:49:33Speaker 02

  He's immobile.

• 1:49:34Bill Simmons?

  I don't see that getting better.

• 1:49:34Speaker 02

  He's coming off of, yeah, he can't move. And he can't, he can't, you know, put weight on the, on the foot and throw the ball down the field. But you know, he's coming off an Achilles.

• 1:49:44Bill Simmons?

  You know who else didn't look at? Patrick Mahomes. That's why I stayed away. Patrick Mahomes was bad last week for actually throwing the ball. Like, he had some good scrambles, but he was not good. And got bailed out by a lot of the yards after the catch stuff. All right, so you're leaning Pats for your fifth pick.

• 1:50:00Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:50:02Bill Simmons?

  Oh, man, I, I'm probably leaning toward the Panthers. I'll talk myself out of it. God, you know what? I might be leaning toward the Raiders. Can that line get to 7 for me? That would be wonderful. And then I'll be leaning, I'm going to, I'm going to UCLA, the UCLA Purdue on Saturday. Forgot to tell you.

• 1:50:23Speaker 02

  Super fun.

• 1:50:24Bill Simmons?

  Can't wait.

• 1:50:26Speaker 02

  Lay some points with that one.

• 1:50:27Bill Simmons?

  I feel like they should bring me out like in a, like a chariot.

• 1:50:32Speaker 02

  They could bring you out like Hannibal Lecter.

• 1:50:34Bill Simmons?

  They could bring me out however you want. That sounds great. Bring, play the Silence of the Lambs music. All right, so our final picks for Ringer 107. Week 2. What'd you go for, what'd you go in Week 1?

• 1:50:47Speaker 02

  2 and 3.

• 1:50:48Bill Simmons?

  Me as well. Let's hope it's not a pattern. We both have the Texans minus 2.5 at home against the Bengals. You have the Broncos minus 2.5 against the Jags. I have the Jags in a tease, up to 8.5, with the Bucks down to minus 2.5 against Deshaun Watson because it's our last weekend to bet against Deshaun Watson. You have the Niners minus 13.5, absolutely blowing out the Miami Dolphins, probably a good pick. I have the Jets in a rainstorm, plus 3.5 at home against the Packers, trying to go 2-0. You have a tease, Eagles minus 1 with the under in that same game, 45, and it's gonna be 145 degrees at that game.

• 1:51:28Bill Simmons?

  And then last but not least, I have the Patriots in kind of a must-win at home against the Steelers with 10-day rest and a lot of good trends for extra rest. Patriots minus 4.5 against the Steelers. And that is the Ringer 107. It was brought to you by FanDuel. Download the app now to find all of our Ringer 107 picks. Make this your most rewarding season. It's really cool. You click on it, all of our teases are there, some of our favorite picks. FanDuel Player Game Odds Subject to Change. We are a month away from NBA season.

• 1:52:08Speaker 02

  I'm getting ready.

• 1:52:09Bill Simmons?

  Just pointing out, you ready for prep?

• 1:52:11Speaker 02

  I sure am.

• 1:52:12Bill Simmons?

  Zach's claiming that he's not flying out to do the over-unders with us, but he's, I think he's gonna be on the TV. So it'll be the two of us together, and then Zach on a TV like he's Dr. Evil.

• 1:52:24Speaker 02

  We, we'll make it work. He was Dr. Evil against the Sacramento Kings. He really pissed them off last year. Let's see who he picks for his Dr. Evil. I mean, that clip lives on.

• 1:52:34Bill Simmons?

  I actually, in retrospect, he probably wasn't harsh enough. He could have, he could have dialed it up a little extra. All right, House, we can watch you on Ringer Wise Guys, a fantastic show, on Friday, 11 a.m., live on Twitch.

• 1:52:48Speaker 02

  The full breakdown of the entire NFL slate.

• 1:52:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 1:52:52Speaker 02

  What are we doing? Come on.

• 1:52:53Bill Simmons?

  With Sal and DeBundo and Raheem. So how do those fellows for us?

• 1:52:56Speaker 02

  Dream, let's go.

• 1:52:57Bill Simmons?

  Thanks to House, thanks to Tom Pelissero as well. Thanks to Gahow and Eduardo and Chris from behind the scenes for us. New rewatchables coming on Monday. And we did Law Abiding Citizen.

• 1:53:12Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 1:53:13Bill Simmons?

  Jamie Foxx, Gerard Butler. An action movie that's really gained some steam.

• 1:53:18Speaker 02

  A few laughs.

• 1:53:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:53:19Speaker 02

  A few laughs.

• 1:53:20Bill Simmons?

  It's really, this movie's really something, so stay tuned for that. It's on Netflix if you haven't seen it. That's it for the pod. Good to see you, House.

• 1:53:28Speaker 02

  Good times, buddy.

• 1:53:48Bill Simmons?

  Must be 21-plus and present in select states for Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18-plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Get in a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESSET. Call 888-797777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. For Louisiana, call 877-770-7867.