Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time

This is our full conversation with Gavin Baker. We discuss the aftermath of the SpaceX IPO, why he believes SpaceX could become the most important company of all time, how AI infrastructure and "token factories" are reshaping capital markets, why sovereign AI strategies may struggle to compete with frontier labs, and what the future of data centers, orbital compute, and the AI endgame could look like. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com Figma - https://www.figma.com MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com NYSE - https://www.nyse.com Railway - https://railway.com Shopify - https://www.shopify.com/ Codex - http://openAI.com/codex Sign up for TBPN’s daily newsletter at TBPN.com Follow TBPN: https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00John Coogan?

  Gavin Baker, welcome to the show. How are you doing?

• 0:03Gavin Baker?

  Doing great, man. How are you guys?

• 0:05John Coogan?

  Fantastically, right? SpaceX IPO, it seems like everything went just flawlessly to a T, like to the point where it wasn't even dramatic.

• 0:15Jordi Hays?

  Let's give a round of applause for the banker.

• 0:16John Coogan?

  The banker, it's like 20%.

• 0:18Jordi Hays?

  20% pop, almost to a T.

• 0:20John Coogan?

  Yeah, what I mean by that is like, is like, it would have been more dramatic if it had like, popped up 70%, then went down 30, and then went up 50, and it was drama, but it was just like, perfect execution from start to finish. Was that how you interpreted it?

• 0:34Gavin Baker?

  I thought Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley did a very good job.

• 0:37John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 0:39John Coogan?

  What do you think the market is looking for SpaceX next? Is it all eyes on the first earnings report? Like, where do we go from here? Because there's so much of the SpaceX story, pre-IPO, that was a decade out, five years out, two years out. But is the market going to be processing quarter by quarter plays, like many other companies?

• 0:59Gavin Baker?

  Well, I think the market is always, you know, quarters matter.

• 1:02John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:04Gavin Baker?

  You know, the runners on X, you know, it's like there are these reply people on X for any topic or experts.

• 1:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:10Gavin Baker?

  But somebody once told me a marathon is 26 one-mile runs.

• 1:14John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 1:15Gavin Baker?

  And so, you know, and then all the runners were like, no, that's not true at all. Running, you know, obviously running a mile is different than running a marathon. But, you know, every quarter matters. But at the same time, I do think if you look at how the market has looked at Tesla over the last five, six years, you know, Amazon during kind of the days of, you know, when they were building out AWS, and then, you know, kind of their retail distribution infrastructure, when they'd go through these investment cycles. I do think the public market has a much greater tolerance for investment and a much longer time horizon than a lot of people in the venture ecosystem give it credit for. By the way, this is Foxy in the

• 1:59Gavin Baker?

  back. He's our, he's, he's one of the analysts here at TradeEats.

• 2:04John Coogan?

  I was just listening to him on the Brad Gerson podcast. I think he chimed in on that, right? You brought him with? There we go.

• 2:10Gavin Baker?

  Yes, he did. But he did the work on SpaceX, so I thought you guys might want to talk about that.

• 2:16Gavin Baker?

  But I do think that I'm not sure the story is as far out as you made it seem to be. I think there are two variables that are going to matter a lot over the next year.

• 2:29Gavin Baker?

  The first is just how quickly can they bring on terrestrial compute? It does seem like they monetize gigawatts at a higher rate than anyone else. And we know from Jensen that they bring on data centers faster than anyone else, per Jensen's words.

• 2:46Gavin Baker?

  And everyone in the ecosystem is really incented to get land of power in the hands of people who can energize it because everybody starts making more money when the GPUs are energized. So, you know, if they can, what, what are, what, what was the altimeter figure for how, what they were monetizing gigawatts at? Foxy, do you remember?

• 3:09Jordi Hays?

  Well, I think it was like two to three, wasn't it like at least two times higher than like average Neo cloud pricing? And that's partly due to scale and customer quality and things like that, but it was meaningful.

• 3:20Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, so they're doing fifty billion a gigawatt on the Google deal. So how quickly they can add gigawatts really matters.

• 3:27Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 3:28Gavin Baker?

  If you can energize two, three, four gigawatts in the next year, that's a lot of revenue. Now, you know, that prices may go up, they may go down, but that's really going to matter.

• 3:40Jordi Hays?

  So all eyes on Colossus three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, et cetera, at least in the short term.

• 3:44Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, our macro hard, macro harder, macro.

• 3:49Gavin Baker?

  To that maybe macro hardest.

• 3:53Gavin Baker?

  And then I think cursor is another big variable. You know, we talked about it with Brad about how Composer 2.5 after three weeks of, you know, RL and supervised fine tuning Colossus 2, it's kind of Pareto dominant. So what's going to happen when it's applied to a bigger, better base model? I do think cursor being in, you know, half the Fortune 500 is interesting. So I think those two things. You know, wow, I mean, I'm super excited for going to Mars and asteroid mining.

• 4:29John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 4:30Gavin Baker?

  And, you know, a city and mass drivers on the moon, like, all that stuff is awesome. And I think there's a, you know, decent chance it happens in my lifetime. I just think there is, there's much more tangible near term drivers here.

• 4:46John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 4:46Jordi Hays?

  How do you think about the tension of the cloud business versus their own application and, and model business? Uh, I think a lot of people were surprised when the initial Anthropic deal happened purely because, uh, knowing Michael Truell, he would have been very excited.

• 5:01John Coogan?

  That's my compute.

• 5:02Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, get access.

• 5:04John Coogan?

  He's like, hey, you gotta share.

• 5:05Jordi Hays?

  Uh, David.

• 5:06John Coogan?

  I'm the only child around here.

• 5:07Jordi Hays?

  And it feels like, uh, you can imagine SpaceX, you know, bringing on a lot more compute very quickly. Uh, but at the same time, every lab has had to go through this tension of like, how much, how much compute do we allocate to training versus inference?

• 5:22Gavin Baker?

  A way to interpret that is that maybe the team at SpaceX is pretty confident in their ability to bring gigawatts online.

• 5:30John Coogan?

  Yeah. That makes sense.

• 5:31Gavin Baker?

  And the altimeter figure that they've ordered 20% of the Rubens, and the Ruben is an epic chip. Like Blackwell, it was really hard to get it online. Ruben is kind of a more drop-in replacement. It's a really, really good chip. You'll have the, um, you know, the Grok LPUs integrated at some point in the next six, nine months. Um, so one way to interpret that is they're pretty confident that they can bring data centers online pretty quickly. Um, but I also,

• 6:05Gavin Baker?

  I, I don't remember all, all of the details, but I do think there, there was an out in the Anthropic agreement that if they need.

• 6:12Jordi Hays?

  And the, and the Google, and the Google.

• 6:14John Coogan?

  Yeah, could be short term.

• 6:15Gavin Baker?

  So there you go.

• 6:16Jordi Hays?

  Well, and that's, that's what I just meant. It's like, it is, there is like a tension there where if you, you know, there's a moment where maybe you want the compute, but you don't necessarily have all of the revenue yet. And so you could see, anyways, I'm, I'm very confident they can figure it out.

• 6:29John Coogan?

  Yeah, on the topic of like Elon Web Services, is there a world where SpaceX winds up building out more of what looks like AWS? Like, we've seen between OpenAI and Anthropic, there's this tension of like, you gotta be on AWS because ITAR or, you know, the ecosystem or enterprises just want to be on AWS. They won't even go over to Azure or Google Cloud for whatever. And you could imagine, like, it might, is it enough to just be a token factory? Or do you need to have, you know, a database and an in-memory storage and, you know, cloud storage and cold storage and all the things that AWS provides?

• 7:06Gavin Baker?

  My thought is that being a token factory is more than enough for the next five to 10 years, man. We are, yeah, we need more token factories. But we'll, we'll see. And if they need that stuff, like, they will build it.

• 7:19John Coogan?

  Yeah. How are you thinking about the other hyperscalers, the other big tech companies? We were sort of puzzling over Meta's strategy at this point. Tons of resources, cash flow, data centers, they have experience there. Maybe they're not as fast as SpaceX, but there's a lot there. But it's a completely different motion to go into token factory. And yet, there's still a lot of demand. So how do you think all of that plays out?

• 7:46Gavin Baker?

  Well, I think there's many ways to go to the token factory business. You could, if you're, if you're Meta, you could just say to someone like Fireworks, hey, here are 100,000 GPUs. We'll, we'll take a revenue split and we'll see what happens. I am increasingly looking at EV to net PPE as a valuation metric, just with the idea of being installed atoms on Earth, I think are going to appreciate in value. This is a little bit that halo trade that I think maybe Goldman Sachs came up with, you know, high asset value, low obsolescence. But Meta...

• 8:25Gavin Baker?

  You know, Meta's E V to net P P and E multiple is in an interesting place. It just suggests that the market has an immense amount of skepticism about their ability to monetize their own asset base.

• 8:37Jordi Hays?

  And, and I think that's, I think that's warranted, given that all we've really got out of management is this concept of personal superintelligence. And it would be different if Meta AI was like at the top of the app store and everyone you were talking to was like, yeah, you know, I'm using Meta AI.

• 8:54John Coogan?

  Or there even there was like a killer feature within Instagram.

• 8:56Jordi Hays?

  Yeah.

• 8:56John Coogan?

  It's like, oh, people are shopping in Instagram now.

• 8:58Jordi Hays?

  And I think no one, no one doubts it. Like, once Zuck has an AI product with a billion dollars of revenue, he can take it to, to tens of billions. But it's unclear. I feel like, you know, going into enterprise, like, you know, what, what is this API business gonna, gonna look like? We know they can use the GPUs just on making the ads product better at the end of the day and, um, but there's a lot of questions.

• 9:22Gavin Baker?

  Look, I think a few things. I do think if I look at the way different players are behaving, it feels like everyone thinks we're entering the end game. Everybody, you know, loves to use these chess analogies. And it looks like the end game may be here sooner than we think. I think that's why OpenAI is cutting Codex pricing. Simply because coding, you know, coding tokens are so valuable. And if you don't have enough of them, you may not be able to get into this R S I loop that, that everyone is, you know.

• 9:56John Coogan?

  Pushing for.

• 9:59Gavin Baker?

  And I, I think if you're Zuckerberg, you feel that acutely. I thought Muse, what is it? Muse?

• 10:06Jordi Hays?

  Muse Spark.

• 10:07Gavin Baker?

  It was, to me, it was an upside surprise and it made me feel like, you know, what's the, uh, what's, what's, what's from Talladega Nights? Or what is it? So you're saying there's a chance?

• 10:19John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 10:20Gavin Baker?

  Yeah. So you're telling me there's a chance?

• 10:23John Coogan?

  I mean, the other quote from Talladega Nights is if you're not your fir-, if you're not first, you're last.

• 10:28Gavin Baker?

  And, and, you know.

• 10:29John Coogan?

  That's how a lot of people.

• 10:30Gavin Baker?

  There's so many good quotes from Talladega Nights.

• 10:33John Coogan?

  It's called the windshield.

• 10:35Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, a hundred percent. But I think if, um.

• 10:41Gavin Baker?

  I'm pretty confident Mark Zuckerberg has proven to be a good entrepreneur over time and has been willing to pivot, you know, and it's just, it's so funny, you know, right now, Facebook is, you know, Meta is telling investors, there's like no chance that we're gonna, you know, you know, monetize GPUs externally. Well, like 10 days before, they announced all those layoffs, um, which I think was at the end of 22. If not, I don't remember when they started to announce the layoffs, it was shortly after Brad, maybe two months after Brad wrote that letter to Mark where he said, you're the king, you can do whatever you want, but this is what I might respectfully encourage you to do. You know, they went from saying, we're not going to do that, we're going to keep investing to, you know,

• 11:27Gavin Baker?

  super focused on OpEx in a couple of days, man. So it's like people they meet with Meta and they hear, oh, you know, we're not, um, we're not going to monetize our GPUs externally. Well, I don't know, check back in a few hours.

• 11:43Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, yeah, no, it's like everyone, it comes down to like everyone has a price. You look at, you look at Elon and Anthropic's relationship four months ago. Uh, and then you look at kind of, kind of as the opportunity unfolded, it made sense for them to partner. I wanted to ask how.

• 12:00Gavin Baker?

  On the Meta thing, I think there is one point that's important. What ultimately drives behavior for all these big cap companies? Like getting to AI, I think that does feel existential for all of them. But the stock price also really matters. Because if you don't, if the stock goes down, you know, you gave people a grant at this price, stock goes down. You know, your engineers are unhappy and it's tougher to get to where you want to go if you don't have, you know, these, you know, now forget the 10x engineer, people are talking about the 10,000x engineer. You know, you're not going to get there if you don't keep those 10,000x engineers. So just, I think. Like we'll see, we'll see what's better.

• 12:41John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 12:41Jordi Hays?

  Yep. Uh, how did this IPO, uh, update your, your general kind of framework for the role that retail is playing in capital markets? Uh, a lot of, uh, it was very funny last week to see people like, uh, say like, oh, the IPO is only two X over subscribed by retail.

• 13:01John Coogan?

  Yeah, they're jumping.

• 13:01Jordi Hays?

  All these other, you know, three billion dollar IPOs were, were 10 X over subscribed. And it's like, no, we're, we're talking about, you know, a very, you know, order of magnitude difference here. Uh, but it still feels like retail is going to play a very, very important role over the next 12 months, maybe more so than ever, given that the, the, the hyperscalers are now running, um, you know, cash flow negative. You have the conflict in the Middle East, right? There's rebuilding efforts that needs to, needs to happen. And so I feel like retail, this is, this is kind of, um, retail's moment now, maybe more than ever.

• 13:39Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, well, so a few things. One, people say retail in a pejorative way, and I would just say stupid is as stupid does. And like, you know, we track, you know, there's all these indices of retail favorites. And man, they're up a lot and they're up a lot, 25 and they're up a lot, 24. You know, so kind of stupid is as stupid does. So I'm not, um, you know,

• 14:04Gavin Baker?

  like, I think retail is probably outperforming the overwhelming majority of professional money managers, whether they're, you know, private equity managers, venture, you know, public equity managers, whatever. So like retail, I don't think it's pejorative. I do actually think in the case of, um, SpaceX, I'm not sure, you know, you process so much information. I'm not sure where this comes from. But I actually think after the IPO, um, you know, for whatever reason, it, some of that retail stock may have, may have gotten allocated to people who were flipping it. Cause my understanding is there was more institutional buying. I don't know where this, after the IPO, there was retail buying. Now I'm sure, you know, retail is very sensitive to momentum.

• 14:47Gavin Baker?

  So maybe what's happening today changes that. But I think another really underappreciated thing about the SpaceX IPO is that 10, over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO.

• 15:01Gavin Baker?

  And that's just, you know, everybody does all these lockup analyses and oh, how much stock is gonna come, come to market and you know, for sure, there's all these triple layer SPVs or whatever. You know, or maybe there are, there are, people speculate there are. Um, and I'm sure some of that will get unwound. But the reality is, is that SpaceX employees own a lot of this. And if you're an employee, or even if you're an investor who has an SPV or you're directly on cap table, you've had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years. If you wanted to sell, you could have sold and you know, whatever, when they did that offering in, in the second half of last year. So I think the supply, demand dynamics here are gonna be very interesting.

• 15:46Gavin Baker?

  But with retail in, in general, um,

• 15:52Gavin Baker?

  yeah, man, they're, they've been a more powerful force in the market over the last three and a half years than at any other time in my career, including the year 2000 bubble, which I think this is nothing like, by the way. But yeah, they, they matter and stupid is, stupid does.

• 16:14John Coogan?

  Uh, I'm interested to go a click deeper on the idea of like, value will accrue to companies that are in the token path. I think that phrase is uh, extremely powerful right now, but I wanna sort of expand it and understand the fringes of the token path because uh, we talked to Matthew Prince at CloudFlare, stocks at all time highs. It's delivering tokens at the edge and obviously there's an immense amount of AI agents that are interfacing with different websites, they need to be distributed. So there's a lot of value there, but is CloudFlare in the token path if they're the one finally sending you the packet of tokens at the edge?

• 16:57John Coogan?

  Or does that not count? How does that, how do you think about that?

• 17:00Gavin Baker?

  Every, every C D N. Has has this business, you know, Akamai, they signed.

• 17:04John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:05Gavin Baker?

  Uh, what was it? A $1.8 billion with Anthropic? And if you have all these points of presence.

• 17:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:09Gavin Baker?

  And you can deliver really low latency tokens to high value users. I think what's interesting for for for all these CDNs.

• 17:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:17Gavin Baker?

  Is they're they're getting a massive premium for that latency.

• 17:21John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:22Gavin Baker?

  You know, it turns out, you know, one of the lessons from from Cerebrus is people are willing to pay for speed.

• 17:27John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:27Gavin Baker?

  And you see that in the prices these guys are commanding. But I do think, I mean, my God is in terms of tokens consumed. Um, on planet Earth, these CDNs are delivering less than 1% of them. And I mean, maybe less than 10 basis points of them.

• 17:45John Coogan?

  Most of the things are happening internally and then you just get the result.

• 17:49Gavin Baker?

  Um. Would I say that these guys are in the token path? I mean, I would say they have a path towards being in the token path.

• 17:57John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 17:57Gavin Baker?

  And they are part of their they are part of their business that's in it today.

• 18:00John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 18:01Gavin Baker?

  And and like everyone, they're trying to move it more and more there.

• 18:04John Coogan?

  Yeah, I mean, Matthew was talking about co-locating Nvidia servers on the edge, specifically for the delivery of voice models, because you want those to be very low latency. Maybe you want your coding model to go off and cook in Virginia for 20 minutes or an hour and then come back to you with the final result. But if you're trying to actually talk to a model, you probably want it as fast as possible. What about on the opposite end?

• 18:28Gavin Baker?

  Wasn't there that startup that Nvidia just invested in that like will?

• 18:31John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah, on your house.

• 18:32Gavin Baker?

  Money.

• 18:32John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 18:33Gavin Baker?

  To put a GPU, you know, for a four GPU server on the outside of your house. I mean, yeah.

• 18:40John Coogan?

  GPUs are going everywhere, going in your bed eventually.

• 18:43Jordi Hays?

  I mean, it's full circle too, because wasn't wasn't Jensen talking about stuff like that back during like the original crypto cycle? Being like, everyone's going to be, you know, mining.

• 18:52John Coogan?

  Yeah, and I mean, the Tesla Powerwall is like a version of that for storing energy. It doesn't store compute, but it stores energy locally on the edge, off the grid. And there's a lot of powerful things that get unlocked by that. What about land? Is land in the token path at some point on the extreme other end? Uh, because people are obviously searching for go going further and further upstream. They found a toilet company that makes a particular material that goes into semiconductor supply chain. People are hunting for like the final, the final ingredient. Maybe it's just sand that turns into silicon.

• 19:25Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, I do think the bottleneck bros, as they are called, are this like bottleneck trade is kind of nearing its end.

• 19:33John Coogan?

  Okay.

• 19:33Gavin Baker?

  And, you know, I did, um, you know, the Wall Street Journal had the story about this Japanese company that makes, um, I forget what they make.

• 19:45Gavin Baker?

  Ajin no Ajin.

• 19:48Gavin Baker?

  Ajinoto, um, and you, everybody's in this because they thought they were going to raise prices and then they just said, we're actually not going to raise prices. This is the wrong thing for us. And I almost posted yesterday on X, welcome to Japan, to all of the bottleneck people. But you know, everybody's, you know, having claw run, what's the next bottleneck?

• 20:07John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 20:08Gavin Baker?

  That was, that was the game for the last year. The next game is what has enduring franchise value.

• 20:16John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 20:16Gavin Baker?

  Kind of on the other side of these bottlenecks, whenever, whenever that is. As far as land, is land a bottleneck? Man, I do think the math for orbital compute to me, it, once they can reuse Starship.

• 20:29John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 20:30Gavin Baker?

  I think the math for orbital compute becomes pretty compelling. You know, it's just sixty billion to bring on a gig terrestrially. Twenty-five is power and cooling. You don't need that in space. And so the right comp for that thirty-five billion of kind of, you know, IT equipment, GPU, CPU, switches, um, you know, memory, storage.

• 20:51Gavin Baker?

  Is, is that twenty-five billion versus the cost of launch? And once Starship is reusable, I think the cost of launch is five billion. So twenty, that means you can put a gig into space for thirty billion and a gig on Earth is sixty billion. And that twenty-five, the power and cooling feels reasonably inflationary to me.

• 21:11John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 21:12Gavin Baker?

  Um, so I don't know that I would say land is in the tokens, token path.

• 21:17John Coogan?

  Maybe beachfront property, but that's about it.

• 21:20Gavin Baker?

  Beachfront property is beachfront property, airplanes.

• 21:26John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 21:26Gavin Baker?

  Really nice cars.

• 21:27John Coogan?

  Yep, firmly in the token path.

• 21:29Gavin Baker?

  All that stuff is in the token path.

• 21:31John Coogan?

  I gotcha.

• 21:32Jordi Hays?

  Uh, how do you think the events of, of last week with Anthropic and DC update, uh, different countries on their own sovereign AI play? Cause there's been, there's been attempts. It doesn't feel like, you know, many of the attempts have, you know, you can have a powered shell and you can have the best GPUs, but if you don't have the talent, it's really, it's going to be really hard to get to the frontier. And now if you don't have massive usage, it'll also be really hard to get to the frontier. And so do you think the ship has sailed?

• 22:04Gavin Baker?

  No, well, look, look, I think every country is going to want to have their own sovereign AI strategy, the minimum for national defense. I think where that ends up is, um, I saw today that the EU had restricted exports of McStraws.

• 22:19John Coogan?

  I think that's a joke. I think that's a meme. So people have gone so far on the Mistrall La Chat thing, La Chateauneuf, that, that they're saying it's like Mythos is distilled on it and it's breaking all the benchmarks. I think it's a good model, but I don't know that it's quite there yet.

• 22:35Gavin Baker?

  Yeah.

• 22:36John Coogan?

  But you can imagine that we get there for sure.

• 22:39Gavin Baker?

  Yeah. So I think what sovereign AI will look like for essentially all countries really other than the United States and, and China, although I think China is going to fall further and further behind, is just some sort of, you do, you use, um, you know, you use one of these providers to do some reinforcement learning on your language, your culture, your values. You have a system prompt, um, you do some supervised fine tuning and you run that on whatever the best open source model is. I think that's where sovereign AI ends up. And then you run it in your own data centers. So you feel like, you know, it's safe and whatever defense questions you're asking it or whatever, forget questions, whatever. Defense and intelligence, um, and maybe, um,

• 23:27Gavin Baker?

  Your policing activities, your sovereign AI agents are doing, you know, 24 hours a day, you feel like they're safe.

• 23:35John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 23:36Gavin Baker?

  So I think that's where sovereign AI ends up. And I think, you know, there'll still be a big build out for that. But man, sovereign AI at the frontier, I don't see it.

• 23:43John Coogan?

  Yeah. What do you think the drivers are of the widening gap between Chinese open source models and American closed source models is?

• 23:50Gavin Baker?

  China's made a terrible mistake not, you know, taking, it feels like the administration has been willing to let them buy H200s or P30s.

• 24:00John Coogan?

  Oh, yeah.

• 24:01Gavin Baker?

  And I think they're on this like, you know, they have this crazy belief that, oh, you know, our own internal chips are good enough. They're not.

• 24:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 24:10Gavin Baker?

  And then, you know, I think what's making them think that is that Chinese labs are very, very good at distillations. Somebody told me it only took 160,000 reasoning traces from O1 and O3 to get the original DeepSeek. You know, they're very clever at industrial scale distillation, running it through multiple APIs, pinging each API from, you know, we've all seen those iPhone farms in China. You know, they've got, they've got the same thing for distillation and they've got, you know, 100,000 endpoints, distilling these models across every API available. They've got really, really good at that. But man, all that goes away if people stop releasing these models at the frontier.

• 24:54Gavin Baker?

  And I think Mythos is a side of things to come there.

• 24:57John Coogan?

  Yeah, yeah. It seems like they're getting much better at locking down, the reasoning traces locking down the espionage. It feels like back during the O1 days, the labs weren't even aware that distillation was so possible, that that was, that that was something that was such a, such a potential threat, for sure. Jordan, please.

• 25:18Jordi Hays?

  Is any part of you worried that you'll never see another, another company like SpaceX?

• 25:22Gavin Baker?

  Um.

• 25:27Gavin Baker?

  Worried is the wrong word.

• 25:28Jordi Hays?

  Not worried, but like you have to appreciate, you have to appreciate that a moment like that, it's possible that you have an opportunity to invest in a company like that one time in your career. And thank God you did it because there's plenty of people that had the opportunity and didn't.

• 25:44Gavin Baker?

  Well, I did own 15% of Nvidia when it was a sub $2 billion market cap. But I owned 10% of Tesla with a sub $2 billion market cap.

• 25:57Gavin Baker?

  But SpaceX certainly, it's been a special experience for me. And I think there is a chance that it is, you know, one of the most important iconic companies of all time. I mean, it already is. There's a chance it's the most.

• 26:17Gavin Baker?

  And I think in general, it's just, like, I kind of want to take a step back and like,

• 26:24Gavin Baker?

  all this trillionaire hate from the left, it's like, you know, there's a great post from my friend Kevin Mahaffey saying like, oh, this is a Bond villain who's decarbonizing the world. Last time I checked, people on the left were like the environment, connecting, you know, poor people in low-income countries, schools and hospitals, to the internet at very low cost. And he's helping blind people see today and, you know, interact with the world.

• 26:57Gavin Baker?

  That's a villain. And then just like, there's so many parts of the SpaceX story, like all of the, you know, blue collar workers who've gotten super well. If you're opposed to data centers on Earth, because the environment, well, SpaceX is your, is your solution. So, you know, there was another great post that just said, you know, the left won and they don't even appreciate it. The world's first trillionaire, you know, has done more to help solve the environment. They're like, everyone else on Earth, goodbye.

• 27:28Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, I saw there was another good one. It's like, yeah, Elon could solve world hunger by, you know, market selling every, you know, piece of stock that he has and send the world into a global economic downturn, losing, you know, millions of, millions of jobs in the process.

• 27:46Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, that, uh, somebody said Elon, that the World Bank could solve hunger with five billion. And he said, if you prove it to me, I'll do it.

• 27:53John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 27:54Gavin Baker?

  And turns out you can't solve world, world hunger for five billion dollars.

• 27:58John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 27:58Gavin Baker?

  Um, but yeah, SpaceX is certainly, I would say, you know, SpaceX, Nvidia, Tesla, they've all been very special to me in kind of a different way. But man, there's nothing like a rocket launch. And so I just don't think as a visceral experience, I highly recommend, everyone listening, you guys, if you have kids, take your kids to a lodge. You don't want to go with SpaceX. Everybody's always like, oh, get me the special tickets. You just literally, you can go to a beach at Boca Chica and be where the special SpaceX viewing area is. You could literally be closer to the lodge.

• 28:34John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 28:34Gavin Baker?

  You can, there's hotels near Vandenberg. Take your kids, see a lodge. It's super inspirational that humans are capable of this. And it's much more visceral than you realize. You know, the sound, the blast of hot air. A lot of people cry. So go see a lodge, but there will be a, never, I don't think, uh, I'm pretty skeptical that there will be another, uh, company that delivers a visceral experience like that. And then listen, if SpaceX puts a city on, on the moon and then Mars, it enables, you know, becomes the British East City Company, the solar system. I think this will, that those, there's a lot of hard engineering

• 29:18Gavin Baker?

  that needs to happen to go into all that. This will probably be the most important company of, certainly my lifetime, but maybe, maybe of all time. Uh, and so for that's it. So I don't think there will ever be anything else like it. And yeah. I guess that is a little bit sad, but you know what? There's so much awesome stuff happening in the world. That it's it's it's tough for me to get too down.

• 29:41John Coogan?

  I love it.

• 29:41Jordi Hays?

  Yeah, hard to hard to hard to be hard to be too.

• 29:44John Coogan?

  I have I have one last question. We have.

• 29:47John Coogan?

  You mentioned owning Nvidia sub two billion. What is the health of the sub two billion? Market right now? Is there is there anything that you're excited about?

• 29:56Jordi Hays?

  Is there anything that the bottleneck bros haven't ran?

• 29:59John Coogan?

  You haven't run up to a trillion yet?

• 30:00Gavin Baker?

  The bottleneck bros have taken everything under two billion, above two billion.

• 30:04John Coogan?

  Maybe not even maybe not even like like public companies, but private areas. I mean, we're starting to see the knock on effects of. AI in bio and material science and like Neuralink was sub two billion for a long time, right? And so there are more like not in theme, but accelerated by. So I don't know. There's also just like, you know, SaaS company.

• 30:26Gavin Baker?

  There's loads of incredible venture companies, you know, startups under two billion.

• 30:32John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 30:33Gavin Baker?

  Like loads of them.

• 30:34John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 30:35Gavin Baker?

  You know, I I I I talked to them, you know, several times a week minimum.

• 30:41John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 30:42Gavin Baker?

  In public, you know, until the bottleneck bros came along, until AI came along. There was not a lot happening in public, small cap land.

• 30:52John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 30:53Gavin Baker?

  And by the way, on this, like, all these small caps, these bottlenecks, this AI. It does feel a little weird to me that you could have like a large following.

• 31:04Gavin Baker?

  On social media, post about, you know, buy buy stock in something.

• 31:09John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 31:10Gavin Baker?

  And then post about, you know, outline your thesis in a thirty five million dollar market cap company. And send it up like a thousand percent. And there's a lot of that going on. And by the way, this is not this is not like a serenity comment. I think that guy is that person is smart. But I mean, there's, there's, there's, there's a lot of shady stuff happening. It feels like to me.

• 31:35John Coogan?

  Sure.

• 31:35Jordi Hays?

  Well, yeah, and you look back at, you know, you were a young, young analyst at Fidelity, right? During the, the doc, you know, the end of the, the dot com cycle and there was a lot of just like euphoria, stuff happening. And in the years that followed, there was consequences, right? There, there were people ultimately had to, to face.

• 31:58John Coogan?

  Sometimes civil penalties, all sorts of different things. Companies went bankrupt. There were all sorts of different, you know, perturbations in the market. And of course we got a, we got a bunch of really enduring generational companies through that period, too.

• 32:11Gavin Baker?

  Although a lot of these accounts are anonymous and I'm sure they're logged into social media with a made up email.

• 32:17John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 32:18Gavin Baker?

  You know, called through a VPN and so I don't, I don't know. We'll see.

• 32:23John Coogan?

  It is, it is different than a research, than a sell side research report that maybe goes a little bit too far, but there's still a whole compliance department around it. We are in, yeah, uncharted territory. So everyone needs to stay safe out there and do your own research, I suppose.

• 32:39Gavin Baker?

  Yeah.

• 32:40John Coogan?

  Anyway.

• 32:40Gavin Baker?

  Well, guys, man, this was super fun.

• 32:42John Coogan?

  This was great. Let's do it again soon.

• 32:43Gavin Baker?

  Come on more.

• 32:44John Coogan?

  Thank you so much.

• 32:45Jordi Hays?

  Anytime. Let's get the whole team on too.

• 32:47John Coogan?

  Yeah.

• 32:47Gavin Baker?

  Yeah, well, you know, that's actually fun.

• 32:49John Coogan?

  Yeah, it'd be great.

• 32:50Gavin Baker?

  Let's do that with the whole team.

• 32:52John Coogan?

  It'd be amazing.

• 32:53Gavin Baker?

  Awesome.

• 32:53John Coogan?

  I would love it. Yeah. Yeah.

• 32:55Gavin Baker?

  And I will talk.

• 32:56John Coogan?

  You have a conference room with a, with a nice wide angle camera. You can just have the whole crew there. That's great. Partner meeting.

• 33:01Jordi Hays?

  Bring us into a partner meeting. Yeah, exactly. Awesome. Great to hang with you guys.

• 33:05John Coogan?

  Have a great rest of your day. Thank you so much for coming on. We'll talk to you soon.