San Antonio Gets Fox, Luka-Lakers Day Two Angles, and Super Bowl Props With Kirk Goldsberry and Cousin Sal

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Kirk Goldsberry to discuss another big trade, which sends De'Aaron Fox to the Spurs and Zach LaVine to the Kings (2:32), and more thoughts from last night's blockbuster Luka Doncic–Anthony Davis trade (22:29). Then Bill joins up with Cousin Sal to run through their many Super Bowl LIX prop bets (1:11:10) before closing the show with Parent Corner (2:00:25). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Cousin Sal and Kirk Goldsberry Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  Coming up, second pot of the weekend. Let's talk more Luca. Let's talk Super Bowl props next. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you. So they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun, sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead. But what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later.

• 0:43Bill Simmons?

  In all fairness, though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. 1-2-3 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save, savings vary. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed it, Ryan Resillo, Rob Hohn and I, on Saturday night, out of nowhere, Luka Doncic gets traded to the Lakers for Anthony Davis and other stuff. And we just hopped right on. We did a podcast. You can find it on YouTube on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. You can find it on Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. So this is the second podcast of the week. We'll get to that in a second. Don't forget, Super Bowl 59 is happening. It's all happening on FanDuel, too. You can opt in and bet on a player to score an anytime touchdown.

• 1:28Bill Simmons?

  If they score the first touchdown of the game, they win their anytime TD bet and split 2.5 million in bonus bets with everyone else who used their token on that player. So if you use it on like A.J. Brown scores first touchdown in the game, 10,000 people use their token on A.J. Brown. Each customer gets, I don't know, $250 in bonus bets? That's how it would play out. If the player scores the last TD of the game, the customer wins their anytime TD bet and splits the 2.5 million in bonus bets with everyone else who used their token. On that player, you are going to hear Cousin Sal and I talking about all of our favorite Super Bowl props. So we're going to hit this one specifically as well. My favorite anytime TD pick, a whole bunch of other stuff that's coming up in a second. Be sure to check out

• 2:13Bill Simmons?

  FanDuel's Super Bowl Touchdown Jackpot and all the Ringer specials. Just look for it in the FanDuel Sportsbook app. So remember, Sal and I come in later with our annual Super Bowl props. We did not expect that to be the second segment on this podcast because I'm bringing in Kirk Goldsberry. There's just some extra stuff since that trade happened last night. You know, we're reacting to that trade in real time. Now it's Sunday afternoon, PT, and we've learned a lot. We've read a lot. We've heard a lot. We've, we've talked to some people and we're going to lay down a second set of thoughts, a day removed from the most shocking trade, I think, in NBA history. So Kirk Goldsberry next, then Cousin Sal

• 2:56Bill Simmons?

  doing Super Bowl props first. Once again, our friends from Pearl Jam.

• 3:21Bill Simmons?

  All right, Kirk Goldsberry is here. We are taping this a little before 6 o'clock PT on Sunday night. I invited Kirk to talk about day two of the Luka Doncic Lakers trade because we've covered it last night. A whole bunch more to discuss, more meat on the bone. But as we're preparing to do the pod, of course, there was another major trade that included a team Kirk used to work for, the San Antonio Spurs. Fox to the Spurs, Levine to Sacramento with some picks. Chicago basically gets their 2025 pick back and takes some, some contracts. And the headline, Kirk, is that San Antonio did not give up a lot for De'Aaron Fox. So why?

• 4:04Speaker 01

  They're in a different regime. I think they're in, they're officially now built in, in try to win mode, which is sort of a big paradigm shift for the San Antonio Spurs that have been in rebuild mode, but now they're in try to win mode. I think this is the symbolic threshold of a team that's ready to compete.

• 4:22Bill Simmons?

  Okay. So why didn't they give up more picks to get De'Aaron Fox, who I had like number 20 on my trade value list?

• 4:27Speaker 01

  Cause I didn't have to, is the short answer. They gave up some draft capital, obviously. I think those are some nice picks they gave up, but I expected maybe to see Devin Vassell's name, maybe see Jeremy Sohan's name. I think, yeah, you're right. The headline is that none of those guys as, as we have right now are included in this deal.

• 4:45Bill Simmons?

  So they kept Wemby, Fox, they added Vassell, Castle, who I think was a non-starter, Sohan, Harrison Barnes, Kelton Johnson, CP3, Champenny.

• 4:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 4:59Bill Simmons?

  Um, pretty nice night. Now CP3 coming off the bench, maybe playing with Fox. We've seen CP3 in OKC. He was playing with Schroder and with SGA. Like he weirdly knows how to play with other small guards. Um, if I'm a Spurs fan, I'm out of my mind that this was the trade because

• 5:16Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 5:16Bill Simmons?

  They gave up the 27 Spurs first. I don't care. I have Wemby. I'm going to be one of the best 10 teams in the league in 27. They gave up the 2031 Minnesota first, which hurts. That might be a real pick. They got this, um, they gave up this 2025 Charlotte pick that is basically one through 14 protected and is going to turn into two seconds and Sacramento gets two firsts, five seconds, and they get Zach Levine, who I think we both really like this year. I actually think he's an asset.

• 5:47Speaker 01

  I love it. But again, they don't have a North Star. The Sacramento Kings have been like this my whole life. I don't know what they're trying to do. Now they reunited the great DeRozan Levine duo.

• 5:56Bill Simmons?

  They reunited an eight seed for multiple years from the East.

• 5:59Speaker 01

  The East Coast eight seed is back for vengeance.

• 6:03Bill Simmons?

  Woo. Vooch has to be feeling left out. Come on, guys. We could have gone 43 and 39 together. Why am I still in Chicago?

• 6:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, for me, the story here is in San Antonio, Bill. The Spurs have a sort of a stopgap point guard in Chris Paul, who's been great. Harrison Barnes has been great. But this is a player in Fox that is a young, great offensive weapon that I think will pair very well with Victor Wembanyama. This is a team that I think was going to have a very high defensive ceiling just because of Victor for years to come. But the offense was the question mark. This helps them address that. And now I think it's like we have Victor at the five, we have Fox at the one. Let's, let's surround two, three and four with defense and shooting. I think there's a clear team building project in front of them that they, they, they are thrilled to have.

• 6:56Speaker 01

  It's a pretty simple problem now as opposed to a bigger problem.

• 7:00Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, and they still have a bunch of picks. They have the two, three, four spots, a lot of length, some potential shooting, although they haven't been shooting the ball this year, but ultimately you're hoping there's going to be some shooting. And, uh, and they protected their nucleus and they still have another trade to make. I still feel like the only, the only like, no way they're trading these guys on the Spurs would be Wemby, now Fox, and Castle. And everyone else is still in play for me and they have contracts they can put together. They're not going to trade for Jimmy Butler, but if, you know, he was a little more enticing, that's the type of trade. Maybe they could trade for Luka Doncic if he feels is physical in the Lakers and it turns out he's 290 pounds.

• 7:41Bill Simmons?

  But, uh, but this is an awesome trade for them. In my head, I, this was a four or five firsts and probably Sohan or Vassell in it. Seemed like that was it. But I guess if you're the Spurs, you're like, look, man, we're not giving up a lot for this dude. He wants to come here anyway. He's from Texas. We'll just get him in a year and a half. So we can do this now and you'll get some stuff or we'll just wait. We're on no rush. We're not going to win the title. One thing Eddie Johnson said on my pod on Thursday, I thought was a great basketball, ex basketball part point, was about Fox as a lefty with Wemby as a right. Righty versus Fox's Fox's lefty with Sabonis as a lefty, which I thought was cool, but I like the idea of Fox, you know, not great when players push their way out of a

• 8:25Bill Simmons?

  team, but you know, he gave him a heads up. I'm not going to resign here. He's been pretty clear about that for the whole season. He picked San Antonio. He picks this whole Wemby circus that will become a circus in a good way because you're attaching yourself to one of the, you know, generational superstars in the league. You fit in nicely with him. Now you throw those lobs. It's a righty as Eddie was pointing out and it just feels like an incredible career move for Fox. It really does. It's like, wow, I totally get what you're thinking here.

• 8:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I mean, obviously we had the big piece on Victor on the Ringer last week. I went all I went all in on this guy and then he had a great game in Paris right after. So I felt good. But everybody around the league is seeing the same thing that we are Bill, De'Aaron Fox among them. This is a superstar in the in the Ringer 100. He's gone from number 67 to number six in in less than two years. You had him as the number one trade value asset in the league.

• 9:26Bill Simmons?

  Do you agree with that?

• 9:28Speaker 01

  Of course. I mean, he's 21. He's a 25 point a game scorer and he's the best defender in the league and he's, this is the worst Victor will ever see is his famous quote about himself.

• 9:38Bill Simmons?

  And he's not just the best defender in the league. He's decidedly the best defender in the league already. He absolutely disrupts and devastates games with his defense and really fucks teams up already.

• 9:50Speaker 01

  There was a sequence in Paris at the end of the third quarter that I'd I'd ask everybody to go watch the first Pacers game in Paris, where Victor blocked four shots in a row. One was a goaltend. Uh, and then he made a three, threw a lob and caught a lob on the other end of the court. And that was just like, all right, that's, that's crazy. That's what De'Aaron Fox is seeing. That's what everybody else is seeing. This dude is only getting better. Uh, and I think the Spurs are really excited today to have another piece in place, another all-star level piece, um, for the future, uh, to build an offense specifically, Bill, around a guy who, and I think this is your term, looks like a giraffe on ice a little bit sometimes.

• 10:37Speaker 01

  On offense, De'Aaron Fox is going to take care of some of that and they can grow together. And is there a better, just a lob game than Fox? And Wemby, I love it.

• 10:47Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if Fox is on a, if this is gonna be like a Chicago Bulls run for Wemby someday, or a Lakers run, or, you know, a Kobe Gasol run, or a 2010's Warriors run. I'm not sure. Fox to me seems more like a Klay Thompson, Draymond Green level star. He's not like a true number two. He's not the Kobe to Shaq, something like that. Still feels like there's room for them to get one more awesome wing, and then that's the threesome. Wemby, awesome wing, Fox. And they have two years to figure it out. They're not gonna win the title this year. They're not gonna win the title next year. But they have the pieces to figure this out.

• 11:27Bill Simmons?

  And as we're seeing now, not just with Fox, Wemby is becoming a seductive spot in San Antonio. For, if you're a player that wants to win, that wants to kind of be along for the ride for some titles and some playoff appearances, and a place with no state tax, a really good organization, it becomes pretty enticing. So here's the small market model working.

• 11:51Speaker 01

  Well, yeah, and I wrote this in the Wemby piece, but there's like two guys under, you know, 26 in the, in the Ringer Top 100's top 10 rankings. Victor Wembanyama is by far the youngest, and the other one is Luka Doncic, who is about to be 26, right? So, I mean, Wemby has, he's gonna be Doncic's age in 2029, I wrote, which is just crazy. Just think about how much time he has to get better. And, and look, yeah, he is there. He's gonna be this great player. We, I don't want to sort of belabor the point. But this is a deal that the Spurs, they don't, they don't make a lot of trades. They don't do this kind of thing. Historically.

• 12:35Speaker 01

  So this is a big deal for them and I'm sure they're, they're pretty happy with it. They didn't, like I said, I think the other headline is they didn't give up Castle. They didn't give up the cell. They didn't give up Sohan. Uh, and they still have Atlanta's pick this year, which is, is looking really good.

• 12:51Bill Simmons?

  By the way, how is that pick not in this trade? Cause Jalen Johnson just goes out and that Atlanta pick is going to be somewhere probably between nine and 14 in a really loaded draft.

• 13:03Speaker 01

  Maybe even better than that.

• 13:03Bill Simmons?

  I would have wanted that one.

• 13:05Speaker 01

  Atlanta is, is cratering right now, unsurprisingly without Jalen. So yeah, I think they're in really good shape and you know, nobody, nobody, nobody's truly surprised by that. But this is the kind of move that, that a pop organization hadn't typically made. This is a team that builds through the draft, um, through savvy free agency signings. Doesn't usually go after a big trade piece like this. So it's a big deal for the San Antonio Spurs.

• 13:33Bill Simmons?

  I'm just relieved that, and we got some of it with Chris Paul this year, but you know, I am a big, if you have a big guy, you have to have a good or very good point guard that can take care of them. If I have a good eater in my house, I want to have a good chef to cook for the, if I have a Hall of Fame eater in my house. Not, not going to go to the crappiest grocery store. I want real meals for my guy.

• 13:57Bill Simmons?

  Sacramento now has a team of Sabonis, Levine, DeRozan, Malik Monk,

• 14:05Bill Simmons?

  Keegan Murray, basically as the, uh, I guess the crunch time five. I guess that means some Monk playing, playing some point, DeRozan having the ball. This is just turning into a, let's just play our best five guys together. They don't really have another point guard.

• 14:22Bill Simmons?

  Uh, maybe they'll try to get one. Maybe they could try to flip an ass into something, but it's just a weird team. And you mentioned earlier, it's a directionless team. It's a team. When we worked at Grantland together 10 years ago, we got a lot of comedy out of, they took Stauskas. What was that with the eighth pick?

• 14:37Speaker 01

  Stauskas.

• 14:37Bill Simmons?

  And, uh, and it was that video of Vivek going around the table like Stauskas, Stauskas going around. And we all got a kick out of that. They've just been a train wreck, um, forever. Really since, uh, 2000, but it's been 20 years of this. Then two years ago, they get the, the two seed. Light the beams happening. They got a little something with Sabonis and Fox together, and it feels like they're on the right way. And this, this year, they, they fire their coach, they bring in Doug Christie, they start winning a couple of games. It's like, whoa, okay, feeling good again. And then Fox has that trade request and it craters everything again. They lost by 180 points to OKC yesterday and became clear something was gonna happen. I don't, what would you tell a Kings fan?

• 15:22Speaker 01

  It's, it feels like the same old thing to me, Bill. The West has been brutal since we've been covering basketball together. You're looking at teams like Memphis, Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, for the foreseeable future, not to mention the LA Lakers.

• 15:38Bill Simmons?

  Edwards.

• 15:39Speaker 01

  Yeah. Yeah. Not, it's just, okay, what are you trying to do to get past teams like that? So it's not a slight against the Kings, but it is, do you really think this is gonna beat the Grizzlies or the Rockets or, or the Thunder? I don't see that with a team built around DeMar DeRozan and Zach Levine. And it was a cool story when they were like-

• 16:05Bill Simmons?

  Because we've already seen it.

• 16:07Speaker 01

  That's right.

• 16:09Bill Simmons?

  I think you're right, because we have seen it. Sabonis playing with those guys is a fun wrinkle. I mean, the right kind of sophisticated offensive coach could probably have fun with this team. I'm not sure Doug Christie's our guy for that. And if I'm a Sacramento fan, I'm just bummed. I'm bummed that we didn't get the Atlanta pick. I'm bummed I didn't get at least three firsts. I'm bummed I didn't at least get, I don't know, Sohan back, something. Could we have turned Keegan Murray into Devin Vassell? You know, makes the Spurs, they just didn't get any of it. And then from the Chicago side. You know, this is the, this is the Reinsdorf middle. That's what they call it.

• 16:53Bill Simmons?

  Can we be between 36 and 44 wins every year? Can we have the illusion of hope? I think in their case, like that team's not a contender. I wanted to see Budzalas play more. I actually like him.

• 17:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, you like him.

• 17:05Bill Simmons?

  They had to carve out some, uh, some minutes for him. They got their first round pick back. I would assume the next move is Vucevic.

• 17:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 17:13Bill Simmons?

  Being traded somewhere.

• 17:16Bill Simmons?

  Maybe they move Josh Giddy. I don't know, but it would seem like this is a move toward, let's now finish in the bottom 10 in the league and try to get another good pick, right?

• 17:25Speaker 01

  Yeah. And I think they reclaimed their own pick, which is great. Um, so they can be there, but yeah, Vucevic has some value on the market. I know teams like Phoenix or Golden State have been looking for shooting bigs. Uh, and he, he, he matches that description. This guy.

• 17:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 17:42Speaker 01

  Is one of the best jump shooting bigs. Defensively, he leaves a lot to be desired. But I think he's, he's a good player. Um, and I wouldn't be surprised to see, you know, by the end of this week that he's, he's playing in a different uniform.

• 17:56Bill Simmons?

  So when you say a lot to be desired, you mean because he doesn't play defense?

• 18:01Speaker 01

  I think his nickname was layup line, if I'm not mistaken, but I might be, I might be mistaken on that.

• 18:06Bill Simmons?

  You're being kind. I like, I like how you are cutting guys down sometimes in the like nicest possible way. He leaves a little to be desired. Like, is he a guy you could maybe score 70 points against in the regular? Yes, he is. Anyway, Chicago now we can add them to the whole.

• 18:25Bill Simmons?

  To the, to the capture the flag sweepstakes. Try to get in there. Last thing I'll say, and then we can move on to the Luca trade because I'm really, I really have other stuff I want to say about Luca and everything that happened. This interesting moment for Darren Fox. We see these guys call their shot. Right? These guys that push them, push their way to another team. They're usually about half a level higher than Darren Fox. Or they have some sort of playoff pedigree, like in Jimmy Butler's case. In this case, he doesn't have it. I think he's a player we've all thought was really talented. He's about to hit his late twenties. We've seen him in the playoffs.

• 19:05Bill Simmons?

  You know, um, he didn't, he didn't leap out in any great way. There's not some, it's not like some Anthony Davis, that one year in the playoffs when he just laid waste to the Blazers. He doesn't have any of that.

• 19:17Bill Simmons?

  And I think we all think he's really good, but now the spotlight is completely different. You're playing in Sacramento, you're buried, you're just another team in the West with all these famous players and teams. Now you're playing with the most famous international player that this league's gonna have. And it's a different level of scrutiny and everything.

• 19:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, and it should be symbiotic. These guys should make each other better. De'Aaron Fox's strengths should play into Victor Wembanyama's strengths and vice versa.

• 19:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 19:44Speaker 01

  The dude is, you know, lightning. He's one of the faster players with the ball in his hand in the league.

• 19:50Bill Simmons?

  Do you think the Spurs want to play like that?

• 19:52Speaker 01

  I think when you have him, you have to.

• 19:53Bill Simmons?

  Are they gonna want to push and run and go? Is Wemby gonna want to do that?

• 19:56Speaker 01

  I mean, the first pass you look for, Victor Wembanyama gets a defensive rebound. Now that first pass is okay. Can he get Fox at midcourt on this sort of Bill Walton style outlet pass? Or, you know, does Kevin Love over yet? So I think when you have Randy Moss, you throw the ball deep. And I think you, when you, when you get this, this is not Chris Paul, right? Like, they've been playing with Chris Paul.

• 20:20Bill Simmons?

  Slowing everything down. Yeah, cuz he's old.

• 20:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 20:22Bill Simmons?

  In a good way, but for him, but, you know.

• 20:24Speaker 01

  So I think they will play fast. And I think, you know, Victor at the five is one of the more, you know, agile five men in the league. So I think they will, you'll see that pace number creep up in San Antonio. You have, you have a bunch of young guys now. So I think they will play to his strengths and he should get some easy buckets, you know. Wemby blocks a shot.

• 20:46Bill Simmons?

  And he's a crunch time guy for them, too, would be the other piece.

• 20:49Speaker 01

  Crunch time, yeah, for sure.

• 20:53Speaker 01

  The shooting has always been his, his, his challenge. But like, if you look at his free throw number, which is what us nerds look at, it's great. He shoots 80% from the free throw line. That should be a 40% three-point shooter. It just hasn't been there. I'd love to see him, as he goes into sort of his late twenties, become a 37, 38, 40% three-point shooter. He hasn't done that yet.

• 21:15Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 21:16Speaker 01

  And that's the thing that could take him over the top, make this a triumph for the Spurs. But he has, he has a lot of potential here. And, and you're right, it's a, it's a laser focus for him.

• 21:29Bill Simmons?

  Crunch time. Fox, Castle.

• 21:33Bill Simmons?

  Vassell, maybe Sohan, Wemby. It's a pretty good defensive team. It's not going to make a lot of threes. There are going to be some bad shots. But defensively, that's a pretty interesting team. And you'd probably, I guess, target Fox and go after him and try to put him in pick and rolls. But other than that, those are all guys that I think would be in pretty good shape. Anyway, interesting trade. Anytime you can get San Antonio, Sacramento, and the mediocre Bulls together for a three teamer, you just thank your lucky stars. We're going to take a break. We're going to come back.

• 22:11Bill Simmons?

  And we're going to talk about Luka. Day two.

• 22:17Bill Simmons?

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• 22:59Bill Simmons?

  You must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC. No purchase necessary. Bonus issued does not withdraw with bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. Avoid or prohibited. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by NBA 2K27. We just had one of the craziest off seasons we've had in the NBA, which is perfect for 2K because every 2K season can be one of the craziest off seasons. The whole league shifted in real life. It could shift to an NBA 2K27. The best place to compete with these new look rosters and also try to figure out who's on what roster.

• 23:42Bill Simmons?

  You can see how new teams and new dynamic duos match up. You can play Philly. Feel what it's like to have all of their new guys with the old guys. And you can also take a struggling franchise. To the NBA Finals if you want, because it'll never happen in real life for a couple of the struggling franchises. You know who I'm talking about. Anyway, NBA 2K lets you experience every transaction and storyline right from your home. Pick up your copy of NBA 2K 27 right now. All right, Kirk Goldsberry, you're sitting home on a Saturday night. Luka Doncic is being traded to the Lakers. What's your immediate reaction?

• 24:23Speaker 01

  Like everybody else, this is hacked. It's embarrassing for Shams. I can't believe that the hacker didn't come up with a realistic trade.

• 24:31Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 24:31Speaker 01

  This, if only the hacker had come up with a realistic trade, this would have been a masterpiece.

• 24:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, put Reeves in it. Put Reeves in the 2031 first and a swap and then I might think this happened.

• 24:42Speaker 01

  Literally, that's my reaction. I think it says it all that everybody I know legitimately thought this was a hack and now are like digging into David Stern style conspiracy theories, trying to rationalize it afterwards. So those are the two points. When it happened, this guy got hacked. After it happened, this is a conspiracy theory. What explains this? In reality, shocked. I mean, count me among the people, Bill. This is the biggest, craziest NBA trade of my life. This is crazy.

• 25:16Bill Simmons?

  I don't even think, I was saying it last night to Russell Mahoney, just, we're reacting in the moment. I had some time to sit with it. I'm like, this is definitely the craziest NBA trade. There's never been anything like this. There's never been an inkling. I'm gonna walk you through. I came up with the six levels of massive NBA trades. And I'm using mostly the 21st century trades as a litmus test, because I was really trying to figure out, has there been a crazier trade than this? Level one, big deal, but we definitely had an inkling. So that's like Iverson to Denver, Carmelo to the Knicks, Chris Paul to the Clippers, even Kevin Love to the Cavs. Big deal, but we knew we had a feeling and it wasn't like massive and we weren't gonna be telling our grandkids where we heard the news. Kyrie

• 26:00Bill Simmons?

  to Boston, et cetera, et cetera. Level two, big deal, immediately one sided and stupid. So it's a trade, you maybe add an inkling, but then you see and you're like, wait, what? That's all they got. So that's like Vince Carter, the jersey. T Mac to the Rockets, Joe Johnson, the Hawks, Harden to Houston's a great one for this. Gobert to the T Wolves are like, wait, what? What happened? That's level two. Level three is the big deal out of nowhere that you feel like something tilted. That's Jason Kidd for Stephon Marbury in 2001. It's like, whoa. Those guys might be the two best point guards in the league. They just traded them for each other. Gasol to the Lakers. Darren Williams to Utah.

• 26:43Bill Simmons?

  Where you had a feeling it wasn't going great there and all of a sudden they're trading him for Derek Favors and two firsts. And it was like, whoa. But then we move into this next level. Level four. The mega deal, but we knew something was coming. So that's like Shaq to Miami. That's KG to the Celtics. That's Anthony Davis to the Lakers.

• 27:01Speaker 01

  Right.

• 27:01Bill Simmons?

  Harden to the Nets. Durant to the Suns. We had a feeling, we knew, but it was still like, holy shit, that's a monster trade. Then you go to level five, the mega deal out of nowhere. This is where it gets pretty rare. That's Paul George to the Clippers.

• 27:16Speaker 01

  Mm hmm.

• 27:18Bill Simmons?

  We know Kawhi's picking back and forth between Lakers, Clippers, the whole week. We don't see the Paul George piece. Now all of a sudden they're on the same team and they're trading Shay Jilis Alexander, Danilo Gourinari. Four firsts, two swaps and another protected pick. And we're just like, what happened? And I think that was the biggest shocking trade, at least this century. Until we get to level six last night, what the fuck just happened? Did the reporter get hacked? It's never happened before. This is the first, did the reporter get hacked mega trade? So you go backwards to the seventies, eighties, like Will to the Lakers, Kareem to the Lakers. They, every time we had a feeling, maybe. Somebody that a guy was available, but you talked to a bunch of NBA teams.

• 28:01Bill Simmons?

  Had you heard Luca was available? It was even conceivable? Hell no.

• 28:06Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 28:06Bill Simmons?

  Hell no. I talked to people who were involved with this deal. I had no idea. This was possible. And I think you had him fourth in the trade value. Yeah.

• 28:15Speaker 01

  Generally, when anybody's, I would like to do a historical analysis of what's the highest person on that list that's ever been moved, like.

• 28:22Bill Simmons?

  Well, so a good way to, somebody sent this to me that Bob McAdoo is the only real comparison we can ever do, who was around the same age range. He'd won the MVP twice, all NBA guy. And it's the only one that's even in the ballpark of, from a talent resume standpoint already. But in that case, they were trying to save money and they basically sold them to Knicks.

• 28:44Speaker 01

  What about Kareem out of Milwaukee? Like that reminds me of this too.

• 28:48Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, or Moses Malone, but that, but those like, we knew those guys were getting traded. Those guys were like, trade me or I'm going to do free agency. Moses Malone signed with Philly and they had to then come up with a deal. So that's like the caliber of dudes. Davis is another one in 2019 with the Lakers.

• 29:04Speaker 01

  We knew that though, right?

• 29:05Bill Simmons?

  Not like this, where the guy didn't know he was getting traded. This has never happened.

• 29:09Speaker 01

  Yeah. Nobody knew that this dude was on the market, which to me is the legacy of this deal. And it, it actually helps explain it now 24 hours later to me, is that the Dallas Mavericks valued Anthony Davis as much as Luka Doncic. Say what, say what you want about that assessment, but that is the only justification or rationalization that explains how we got here right now, Bill. Because they only called one team, which you and Russillo and Mahoney did a great job of calling out that part of this. They really were zeroed in on getting

• 29:50Speaker 01

  Anthony Davis to their team. And I disagree with that assessment. I think most people around the NBA wildly disagree with the assessment, but that is the only explanation of how we got here today. That the, the Nico Harrison looked at Anthony Davis and says, I want that as much as I want Luka Doncic.

• 30:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And people I've talked to, reading stuff, hearing stuff, it really seems like this starts in the finals last year when Boston kicks their ass and Luka's defense is a problem. And I think Kidd. Was just like, we, we're never gonna win the title unless this guy takes it a little more seriously on the other end and gets in a better shape, right? That's, so that's something they're talking about internally all the time. Comes into this season, still not in awesome shape, gets hurt, gets hurt again. And you have Polinka and Nico Harrison, who have this whole crazy, long relationship together. Like, these were two, two of the guys that Kobe was the closest to.

• 30:55Bill Simmons?

  So they've known each other like from the height of the Kobe era. And they just start talking and the reporting all said, they started talking in the beginning of January and they've been talking ever since. And I think it's a masterful job by Polinka to convince Nico not to shop him. Now, if you're gonna be fair to Nico, they're gonna trade Luca, they know what they wanted. They wanted a big guy. There's no other big guy that they could have traded him for, right? So if you're gonna make calls, you're calling Milwaukee for Giannis and you're calling Boston for Tatum. So when people talk about, how do you not shop them around? They feel like, like Nico said in the press conference, whether you agree with it or not, they felt like they have a team that has a chance to win the title.

• 31:38Bill Simmons?

  They wanted to add somebody who could help them win the title this year. So that rules out basically everyone in the league and brings you to Tatum and Giannis. And they didn't call Boston, they didn't call Milwaukee. Now, if they called Milwaukee and said, do you have any interest in trading for Giannis? And Milwaukee's, or do you have an interest in trading Giannis? And Milwaukee said, I mean, the only way we'd ever even consider doing that is if Luca was on the table and then Nico goes, well, hold on. What are you thinking? And then you kind of stumble into it.

• 32:07Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 32:08Bill Simmons?

  But they didn't make the calls.

• 32:10Speaker 01

  It's staggering. That remains and will always be the staggering part of this transaction. And, and I think when the dust settles, that's the biggest question that Nico Harrison's gonna have to answer to for years, is sure, you reached the conclusion internally, again, I'm not justifying this, but they reached the conclusion internally that we do not want to pay this person $350 million. We don't think his calf is gonna hold up. We don't think his body's gonna hold up. We don't think his nutrition is good, whatever. They reached the conclusion that they're out.

• 32:43Bill Simmons?

  And Nico said, we felt like we were heading toward a tumultuous summer.

• 32:49Bill Simmons?

  That we couldn't avoid. So we're trying to get out of this now, which leads me to believe they, maybe they were split internally and paying him?

• 32:58Speaker 01

  Or the ownership is involved. And I had one executive explain it to me like this. The why is pretty clear. They didn't want to be in the business of Luka Doncic long-term. They think he's more like Joel Embiid than the rest of us. They think that this is a big, long-term risk and they don't want that Joel Embiid albatross contract hanging over their cap table for the next, whatever, five, six years. That's, but you reached that point, and I think Ryan did a great job with this too. Okay, now what is the process? The how is the problem. We can disagree with the why, but the how they executed this is the problem. You have a generational trade asset. You have to canvas the league. You

• 33:43Speaker 01

  have to cast a wide net. You have to get two or three parties negotiating against each other to get the best deal.

• 33:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 33:51Speaker 01

  You're trading Herschel Walker, dude. You gotta get the dynasty coming back to Dallas. You gotta get all those offensive line, all those Vikings picks, for those of us of a certain age, and they didn't do that, dude. That's gonna be the thing he has to answer to for the next few years.

• 34:09Bill Simmons?

  I was talking to my wife about it last night after we did the podcast, and she was just like, I don't understand why they traded Luca. Wasn't he in the finals? Like, she knows nothing. She doesn't care. And I was like, yeah, they just, you know, they just felt like, I guess they didn't want to pay him. I still don't know anything. And she, and she goes, well, did they, did they try to trade him to other teams? Was that the best trade? And I was like, no, they just had one team. And she's like, that's weird, right? Like, she, she was just like, I was trying to explain it to her, like, she was like a little kid in elementary school. It's like, yeah, usually, usually when you're shopping, you tell the other teams. And then, one of the funniest things I got this morning was one of my friends was like, Dallas is the team in your fantasy league that they just trade and you fucking lose your mind and everyone's on email threads arguing about

• 34:54Bill Simmons?

  it because they can't believe they wasn't chopped. And that's basically what Dallas did. Here, a couple of kickers though with this that makes me wonder if maybe the general public has completely overrated the talent in this trade, or were, or these two teams are just insane.

• 35:11Bill Simmons?

  Dallas put in a second round pick.

• 35:16Bill Simmons?

  So we're sitting there going, how is Max Christie in this trade instead of Austin Reeves? How is there 2031 first not in there? Why wasn't there like three years of swaps? And as Russella made the joke last night, which was great about Polinka like holding firm on the 31 pick, like, like the deal was gonna go away. It was even crazier than that. He's like, not only am I holding firm, give me a second round pick. And he got it. So that's how bad the Mavs, A, wanted to get rid of Luka, I guess, and B, wanted Anthony Davis.

• 35:48Speaker 01

  Yeah, and there's a week long process. One of my sources inside the Lakers was indicating that the deal was bigger. And I think you guys were literally joking about this last night, that there were two firsts and there was Dalton Connect. And the deal got whittled down because I think Rob Polinka was able to convince the Dallas Mavericks that Luka is a lot of risk. And you guys are right for trying to look at this this way because this guy, oh, he's drinking, or he's whatever, his weight problem, whatever it is. So they were able to convince it. This was a week's long process. That's another thing that came out today is this wasn't, this was a, and Dallas started it.

• 36:30Bill Simmons?

  Almost three and a half weeks.

• 36:32Speaker 01

  Dallas started it, dude. This is, this fell in Rob Polinka's lap. And then he was able to reduce the outward Lakers assets to such, dude, Mikal Bridges commanded five first round picks.

• 36:50Bill Simmons?

  Well, so the thing with Polinka, he is, I've just been marveling at, he's like a, it's like a character out of Succession or something. He is over and over again, figured out how to blame whoever was coaching the Lakers for whatever was wrong with them over any of his moves, right? The Westbrook trade, like you could point to all these different things at Polinka, but he always survives. And then he somehow Jedi mind tricks Nico Harrison with this Davis thing and talks to him for three weeks, convinces him not to shop him anywhere else. No, no, if you're gonna trade Luka, like, it has to be for Davis. Who else in the league would it be? You have to get an all defensive center back, like, you're gonna shop him? Like Milwaukee, Luka's not gonna go to Milwaukee, like Milwaukee's not gonna trade Giannis for him because.

• 37:34Bill Simmons?

  Luka's never gonna sign there. They know that. Boston loves Tatum. They're not turning Tatum into Luka. They love Tatum. That's their guy. Like, so now it's like Bam Adebayo? Like, you can't trade Luka for Bam Adebayo. It's gotta be Anthony Davis. So he's just like, like, kinda tilting it so that Nico's like, "Yeah, you're right. I guess you guys are the only suitor." And it worked!

• 37:55Speaker 01

  The other thing is, they think this team is gonna win. They think that the Kyrie, Klay Thompson, Anthony Davis trio is a big three. They think that.

• 38:06Bill Simmons?

  Well, that's stupid. They don't, they can't think that.

• 38:09Speaker 01

  They think they're gonna win. Otherwise, they wouldn't have done it. But I think the only way, again, that you can explain why they would only call the Lakers is they wanted Anthony Davis. They started off this process, "Hey, we think we can get Anthony Davis." And Nico has this pre-existing relationship with Anthony Davis. And Jason Kidd has this pre-existing relationship with Anthony Davis in the Lakers. And, again, I don't agree with these things, but I, like everybody, spent the whole day trying to understand how this could have gone and how they only called one organization. And it's almost like-

• 38:43Bill Simmons?

  They want a tough, they want a tough defensive team, right? So they're thinking, "We can run our offense through Kyrie and AD. We have a bunch of shooters and tough defenders, and we could actually hang in the West in a real way if those two guys are healthy." I don't, they might, they might not necessarily be wrong, but it doesn't mean they should've traded Luka Doncic.

• 39:01Speaker 01

  I think they're gonna be pretty good this year. I'm not gonna say this is a disaster.

• 39:05Bill Simmons?

  No, they're gonna have real size with the two centers and Davis. They have wings that can play D. They have Kyrie, who's a crunch time guy. This is a pretty big offensive burden for him. But I can see how you talked yourself into this, except for the part that you're giving up a generational talent who's having one of the, for the first seven years of his career, there's only four other guys in the history of the league. Wilt, LeBron, um, who are the other two? Wilt, LeBron, Kareem.

• 39:32Speaker 01

  Magic.

• 39:33Bill Simmons?

  No, there's one other one. But anyway, that are on this, oh, Oscar Robertson, that have the first seven years that Luka had in the history of the league. We're talking almost 80 years.

• 39:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, Stephen Curry hasn't made first-team All-NBA as much as Luka has. It's crazy.

• 39:47Bill Simmons?

  Stephen Curry, it took him three years to even become Stephen Curry, right? Luka immediately, and he made Western Finals and the Finals. So, I'm gonna run through a couple of things I'm gonna throw at you.

• 40:00Bill Simmons?

  Just from, from reading, listening, talking to people, one, a couple of the narratives that didn't pass the sniff test for me, or just things that I didn't hate yesterday, I want to. The first one, the AD and LeBron and Clutch being blindsided by this trade, having no idea that it was in the works, finding out like we all did after the fact. As you know, I'm a, I'm a conspiracy guy, I'm a sniff test guy. This does not pass the sniff test for me for this reason. Buried in all of this stuff was Anthony Davis waived his trade kicker to go to Dallas.

• 40:35Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 40:36Bill Simmons?

  And he did it pretty quickly.

• 40:39Bill Simmons?

  So you have Anthony Davis blindsided by the trade, who loves Los Angeles, who's in his little clutch triangle with LeBron and Rich Paul, and out of nowhere, gets traded to Dallas, and he's so upset about it, that he decides to forego $5.9 million and waive his trade kicker, money he's entitled to. And he's like, I'm good, yeah, yeah, forget it, I want to help you guys out. It just doesn't pass the sniff test for me. LeBron James, same thing. LeBron, you would think he took, would take this so personally. You trade my guy, this is my hand pointed sidekick, you gotta trade me now. Quietly today, it's like, nah, he's gonna be here after the trade deadline. And then Clutch, same thing. Shams

• 41:24Bill Simmons?

  has a relationship with Clutch. Shams gets the scoop. I just think they knew before the trade, and I, I, I wouldn't bet my life on it, but that would be my bet.

• 41:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think the idea that this traveled in silence the whole time.

• 41:40Bill Simmons?

  It's absurd.

• 41:41Speaker 01

  Is a lot. It's absurd.

• 41:42Bill Simmons?

  Now that we know it's been since January 7th, it's absurd.

• 41:46Speaker 01

  That's right. That's what I learned today, too, is that this was a month-long process. And the idea that, that this was as quiet, it is hard to believe. Particularly the way that Clutch and LeBron have inserted themselves into Lakers basketball operations. And, and I agree with you that the idea that, that Anthony was so quick to waive that thing.

• 42:09Bill Simmons?

  And seems kind of fired up to go to Dallas, which, like, this is why I wanted to do a second day pod, raises a bunch of questions for me. It's like... You seem pretty pumped about this. You're not sticking them with the trade kicker and you seem like you like where you're going and you have this long relationship with Nico Harrison. And you're getting away from the Lakers and maybe you feel like you're selling high in your Laker experience. You won a title, LeBron's 40 years old. Eh, new challenge, Dallas, maybe I'll be the guy there in Texas. Just seems like if he, if he was pissed about it, you're making them pay the 5.9 and he didn't.

• 42:46Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's a great point. Uh, it's also a big compliment. I think one of y'all said this last night, that he is the piece for Luka Doncic. And I think that's almost flattering to a point.

• 42:57Bill Simmons?

  Right. That they had to throw in a second round pick from Dallas aside just to get this done.

• 43:03Speaker 01

  And there's some intel that, that Anthony was not in love with playing in Los Angeles, the way they were playing basketball. I think that it all comes together, that he might've been, he might not have been as satisfied there as, as he was letting on.

• 43:16Bill Simmons?

  And then if LeBron was truly blindsided by this, just from his, let's say some passive aggressive behavior over the years from him with roster moves and lack of moves. And he just seems pretty fine with the events, at least so far. It's 6:30 now, uh, on a Sunday night. We haven't seen him really like leak anything, say anything, and just seems okay because he's smart, because he gets to play Luka Doncic. And now there's a scenario where, hey Luca, let me teach you some diet stuff. Hey Luca, this is called a versa climber. What do you think of this thing? Hey Luca, I see you're wearing about 265 right now. Do you realize if you weigh 250, this, this, this, this, this will happen? Hey Luca, here's why you keep hurting your calf.

• 44:01Bill Simmons?

  You're not doing like, Luca basically inherits the greatest personal trainer in the history of the league. LeBron doesn't get hurt.

• 44:08Speaker 01

  Ever tried red wine instead of these, uh, you know, the Czech Pilsners that you've been crushing over the last 10 years?

• 44:15Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 44:15Speaker 01

  I think that's.

• 44:15Bill Simmons?

  This is the scary thing of the tradesmen. This is what my dad said today. He's like, I don't want Luca on the Lakers for a million reasons, but what if he figures it out? What if he's in better shape? What happens then?

• 44:27Speaker 01

  Well, dude, and he is, and I think a lot of us feel this way. This is, they poked the bear and that's not a fat guy.

• 44:33Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 44:34Speaker 01

  They.

• 44:34Bill Simmons?

  I meant to say the FU potential now we have.

• 44:37Speaker 01

  Huge FU potential, Bill. Huge. This guy, he talks like, when I first got into Luca, when he would run his mouth against dudes like Pat Beverley and stuff. And he was a kid and he would just give it right back. And sometimes more than he was getting. Uh, and I was like, this guy is a competitor. Uh, and now I, yeah, you guys did say this yesterday, but it's true. They poured a bunch of gas on this dude's fire. And if he, if he's able to channel it the way that I think and a lot of Mavs fans think right now, look out, dude, because you're right. He can come in in like LeBron 2012 mode, you know, after that Mavs series.

• 45:17Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 45:18Speaker 01

  And just be like, all right, I'm, I'm here and I'm mad. And I can't wait for February 25th to play the Dallas Mavericks in Dallas.

• 45:28Bill Simmons?

  I'm gonna get in the craziest shape of my life. I remember for page two in 2004, when Shaq got traded, I wrote a column called the vengeance scale. And I ranked the vengeance scale from zero to a hundred. Cause I thought like, I was like Shaq, at least for the next couple of years is gonna get in shape and dedicate his life to trying to win a title and stick this up the Lakers ass. And he eventually did. Wade got hurt in oh five. He did in oh six. I think Luca, the competitive, he's both like crazy competitive, but also frustratingly competitive. Because if he was that competitive, he would be in better shape. But I think he's competitive enough that when somebody trades you, you're just gonna be pissed. When you're playing for the Lakers in LA and this incredible franchise and you getting,

• 46:12Bill Simmons?

  you know, bathed in love from all that, you see the 77 jerseys, all that stuff. Um, it has a chance to really ignite him. And that would be the thing of, I mean, I feel so bad for the Mavs fans. I've talked to a couple of them today, like they're just so devastated. They just can't believe this. And if I'm Mavs fan, the worst part of this trade is what happens if we lose in round two? And Luca just goes on a heater for the next like eight years and we're like, we fucking lost Jalen Brunson and Luka Doncic? And I was on a thread with some Red Sox fans. We were arguing about the Mookie Betts trade versus the Luca trade and Luca, I think is a more important asset because it's so, there's four untradable NBA guys every year and baseball, there's 25 guys on a team, but Mookie was our Luca, basically.

• 46:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 46:58Bill Simmons?

  And he, we'd actually won a title with him and he really was a unique, amazing, top five, top eight player. And we got, we didn't get Anthony Davis for him, I'll just tell you that. We got, we got Connor Wong and Jeter Downs and Alex Verdigo and we got rid of David Price's contract. That was a trade and it made me not like baseball. Like I, I don't really watch the Red Sox in the same way anymore. So for the Mavs fans, like I know some Mavs fans, like Jason Gallagher, who we used to work with, um, like he's, he's talking about like his son is like, I'm following Luca to the Lakers. It's like a life, life long Mavs fan. It's like now I am a Laker fan. That, this is like, that whole fucked up side of this is crazy.

• 47:40Speaker 01

  No, it's totally true. Like so many fans, like when Mbappe goes from PSG to Real Madrid, they're just like, I'm going to Real Madrid. I'm a Real Madrid fan now, I guess. This is a generational talent who is going to bring fans like Jason Gallagher's son with him. That's not going to be a unique story and that message.

• 48:00Bill Simmons?

  Poor Gallagher.

• 48:01Speaker 01

  Poor Gallagher. Sorry. Uh, but yeah, dude, that, I went to the Mavs subreddit today and it was like Sons of Sam Horne in October 2003.

• 48:14Speaker 01

  It was so bad, dude.

• 48:15Bill Simmons?

  They were going, they were going to the arena with like props. Somebody brought a coffin, like they were, they were having like a protest.

• 48:23Bill Simmons?

  Somebody brought a coffin to stick it by the Mavs.

• 48:27Speaker 01

  Just visceral pain, dude.

• 48:29Bill Simmons?

  Well, and there's also some incredible conspiracy stuff already. I mean, God only knows what's true, half true, 10% true, but people thinking that-

• 48:39Speaker 01

  What are your favorite conspiracy theories?

• 48:41Bill Simmons?

  No, my favorite, I love this one, that the owners have always wanted the Vegas team. And their eventual goal is to basically flip franchises, move Dallas to Vegas so they can have their whole casino thing. The expansion team that was gonna go in Vegas would be the Dallas team. They'd pay whatever. And the first way to do this was to be basically to torpedo the Mavericks franchise relationship with their fans by trading Luka Doncic. And it's like, I have no notes. That's one of the best conspiracy theories I've ever heard.

• 49:11Speaker 01

  And I'm in Texas right now. One more layer to that one is like gambling in Texas may or may not happen, right?

• 49:18Bill Simmons?

  Probably not happening.

• 49:20Speaker 01

  So, yeah, like this family made, for those who don't know, this family made its money in Vegas. Like, they're a casino family. Yeah, so that's a good one. There's definitely some other ones about just trying to get ratings up and the Lakers back. But yeah, there's a lot of conspiracy bill stuff.

• 49:40Bill Simmons?

  That's what my dad said. My, I mean, the father of conspiracy bill, Conspiracy Bill Senior, was like, this just feels like the Lakers were about to die and they had to put another star in their team. Cause my dad was like, how does this team keep pulling this off? Like, all the Celtic fans were just getting pissed about this today. Cause this is the team we hate the most. It's just like, this team just steps in shit. They're born on third base in the ultimate way. They fuck up the entire 2010s, the entire 2010s. Even like, they take Lonzo Ball over Tatum, like you can point to a million things. And it all leads to LeBron being like, yeah, you know what? I really wanna live in LA. And they just miraculously land LeBron.

• 50:22Bill Simmons?

  Then they have this clutch alliance where like, we're putting Anthony Davis on the Lakers. Nobody else trade for him. The Celtics were like, here are all these picks and we'll trade you Jalen Brown. And like, nope, he's gotta go to the Lakers. So now they get Davis and LeBron together. And then they get six years out of Davis and turn him into Luka Doncic, the best generational offensive prospect slash star slash heading into his prime guy since LeBron.

• 50:48Speaker 01

  And they got, yeah, and you guys did a little of this yesterday, but they got Shaq and they got Pau Gasol exactly when they needed him. And like, yeah, what we said in San Antonio is like, there's three teams, there's three ways to build an NBA team, the trade, free agency and draft. And the Lakers really have access to all three of those levers in a way that no other team does, specifically trades and free agency. And this is just another example of that. And the Spurs or the Grizzlies or the Thunder will never get a trade for somebody like Luka Doncic or a free agency play like that. So they do start on third base. That's exactly right. And this is the updated version of them getting Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 50 years ago.

• 51:31Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 51:32Speaker 01

  This, it's just wild, but it is kind of cool in that sense as an NBA historian.

• 51:37Bill Simmons?

  It's not cool. I hate it.

• 51:38Speaker 01

  That it falls in line with this, but as Celtics fans, not, not exactly thrilled with that historic like parallel, I guess.

• 51:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you could do an all time nine man rotation of NBA 75 guys that they've traded for or signed in free agency. Wilt, Kareem, Shaq and Kobe, because they traded for Kobe, Gasol, Dwight, LeBron, AD, Luca. Those guys are all top 75 guys that they acquired.

• 52:01Speaker 01

  Yeah. And pick any other NBA team and say, who's the best, who's the best player your team's ever traded for?

• 52:06Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 52:07Speaker 01

  And it's like this.

• 52:08Bill Simmons?

  For us, like the Celtics would be Robert Parish and KG, I think would be the two best. And that's in 80 years, unless you count the Bill Russell trade because they flipped draft picks, but.

• 52:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, but if you talk about like the Bucks or the, even the Sixers or the Magic, he just, they, these kinds of players don't, don't just show up on your doorstep.

• 52:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And then the flip side for the Mavs, this is, I mentioned the Mookie Betts trade. This is Edmonton trading Gretzky in 1988, which we did a 30 for 30. That was actually the first 30 for 30 ever. But Gretzky had already won titles for them. The whole point is Luca had not won the title for them yet. He had the promise of, oh my God, we have this guy for the next 20 years. Then we have the other weird piece Kirk about the Lakers, who are playing well. They still have to do the trade.

• 52:57Bill Simmons?

  But the irony of them doing the trade right now was they had just started to look like a contender and they had an identity and they were big and physical and they'd figured out some of the spacing. Christie and Finney Smith were both playing well at wings, so they finally had competent wings they could put out there. So that was part of the trade last night was the timing of it was like, I just watched this team and they look really good and now they just made the most shocking trade in the history of the league. So a defense of the Luka trade from Dallas's side, I just want to do this as a thought exercise. If you're trying to zag,

• 53:34Bill Simmons?

  what's the defense? If you're like, you know what, Nico Harrison has figured this out and he's going to fucking show you that this trade was really smart. What's the defense?

• 53:44Speaker 01

  The defense is that Luka Doncic is the next Joel Embiid. He is a person whose body isn't going to hold up to these crazy pace and space games that happen 82 times a year, plus playoffs. Like Luka played 100 games last year. He's repeatedly strained his calf. We think there's an Achilles tear risk here. We think there's a weight. We think the lower body is going to go or the back's going to go and we're going to be on the hook for that Joel Embiid equivalent and we don't want to do it. And this is the last trade deadline opportunity we have to turn him into something. I don't take that stance, but that's the case and I think

• 54:25Speaker 01

  that's what they saw. Moreover, I thought specifically they wanted Anthony Davis and I think they think they're a better team with Anthony Davis than with Luka Doncic. That's the only case.

• 54:39Bill Simmons?

  All right, I'll add to the defense. Anthony Davis anchored a finals team in 2020 that won it all.

• 54:46Bill Simmons?

  Defense wins championships.

• 54:49Bill Simmons?

  No defense stars don't win titles. Go find me one. Seen a lot of no defense superstars take teams to round three, maybe even round four, but they don't win. How do we know he was signing here in 2026? We don't know. Got to get out early. The way to do this is to do it now and we feel like we can get a lot of value. And then AD was the only guy we wanted. Luca was never going to Milwaukee. Boston and Tatum. Bam's not good enough. KD's too old. Edwards makes no sense for either side. Jalen Brunson, no. So where are we shopping him to? We're going to trade him for a bunch of picks? Like, we don't want to do that. We feel like our team's good. I think that's the defense and it's moronic.

• 55:35Speaker 01

  It's, yeah, we'll see. I mean, I will leave a sliver, a sliver of hope for the Mavs fans that they could be hoisting up Larry O'Brien in the next year or two. I don't think that's gonna happen, but let's.

• 55:51Bill Simmons?

  They're so mad, they'd probably boo the finals trophy ceremony, throwing their Luka Doncic jerseys out. Fuck you!

• 55:59Speaker 01

  It's almost like Ohio State football. Like, they won the national title and they're still pissed off that they lost that Michigan game.

• 56:05Bill Simmons?

  Right. Yeah, we won, but we're still mad.

• 56:08Speaker 01

  Yeah, like, they could literally boo the parade. But, yeah, I don't see it. I think they really believe that Anthony Davis, and I think this is Nico Harrison, believing that Anthony Davis can anchor a top defense in the NBA and that with Kyrie and Klay and their role players, that they can, they can compete for a title. That's the defense.

• 56:34Bill Simmons?

  They still need one more trade. I think they need a little, somebody a little more heat checky who can create their own shot and they still have time to do it because they have some tradable contracts. Who?

• 56:46Speaker 01

  Jimmy Butler. Is he from Dallas or Houston? Where's that from?

• 56:48Bill Simmons?

  Well, Sarudy just texted us that the Warriors Jimmy Butler trade talks have finally ended because the Warriors did not want to commit to an extension. And Jimmy Butler said, this is, who reported this, Sarudy? It was.

• 57:01Speaker 01

  Wendy.

• 57:02Bill Simmons?

  Oh, Wendy reported. Yeah, so there you go. Um, yeah, I was thinking about, the one thing we didn't talk about yesterday because we were so dumbfounded by the trade.

• 57:13Bill Simmons?

  Are there moves for the Lakers this year to become an interesting playoff team? Because I'm positive if LeBron is playing like he did last night and he can just stay somewhat healthy and fresh for a couple of rounds, that's not a team I want to see in round one or round two, then Luca with him and you just have these two freaky, physical, six foot eight, six foot nine guys who don't really have a position, who can, who both have crazy hoops IQs. And then if you can put the right team around them, which they're inching closer to having, except they don't have any rim protection at all. And could they go get Nick Claxton was rumored today. Could they take a flyer on Robert Williams? Could they get Clint Capella?

• 57:57Bill Simmons?

  Would the Hawks want to trade a Kangu for, for the 2031 pick? Would you put Austin Reeves on the table? What could you get from him?

• 58:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, Austin Reeves is expendable now. I mean, why do you need Austin Reeves? You have Luka Doncic.

• 58:11Bill Simmons?

  You need him. House and I were talking about this today. You need him as your six man injury protection for one of those two guys, somebody who's 25 minutes a game. You always have two, you know, obviously the other two guys are way better offensively, but you always have two really good creators and Reeves is turning into a pretty good creator.

• 58:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, he's great.

• 58:30Bill Simmons?

  At all times. So could you, could you turn like Gabe Vincent, 2031, something else into like Nick Claxton?

• 58:38Speaker 01

  Claxton and Time Lord are the names that keep coming up and I would guess that one of them will be on the Lakers. I would guess that. They need a five. Obviously they need a five. They don't have it.

• 58:51Bill Simmons?

  You're not sold on Jackson Hayes? Christian, Christian Wood?

• 58:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm a professor at the University of Texas and Jackson is one of our, one of our guys. So I'm a big Jackson Hayes guy, but no, I want, I want a five man. And my question for you, Bill is like, do you believe that this Lakers team thinks they're going to compete for a title now this year in the next five months?

• 59:14Bill Simmons?

  Here's the thing. They should think that way.

• 59:19Bill Simmons?

  And I didn't think they had a chance to win four straight rounds with the team they had because it was putting too much LeBron looked good against the Knicks like he was awesome against the Knicks. To ask somebody to do that for 10 straight weeks to me at age 40 is not realistic. But now they have a guy who can, we've already seen him single-handedly beat teams in a series who's now going to be pissed off. Trying to shove it up somebody's ass. So if I'm the Lakers, I feel like I could win the, win three rounds now. I feel like we're going against OKC and it's like we have LeBron and Luca and you guys are small and we're going to just try to bully ball you and you can, you know, do whatever, but you, we're still going to be a bitch to play. I can't believe I'm saying this, but like they have the six best, they were 21 to one last night. Now they're 18 to one. So people are betting them, which is not surprising.

• 1:00:05Bill Simmons?

  But if they get, if they get a rim protector and they can play LeBron and Luca with some sort of shooting point guard, Finney Smith, and the rim protector at crunch time with Reeves coming off the bench and some other pieces like, I wouldn't want to see him in a series.

• 1:00:20Speaker 01

  That's where I'm at, but it hinges on that rim protector because right now they're just not built for a playoff run without rebounding and rim protection.

• 1:00:29Bill Simmons?

  Well, they, they have the miracle of Palenka keeping Reeves and the 2031 pick. So they, I mean, they go get that and that almost could be part of the trade, right?

• 1:00:39Speaker 01

  Yeah. And every call I'm sure you had today that I had today is like, oh yeah, they might trade LeBron to Golden State too, which I don't think will happen, but came up so many times today. That we have.

• 1:00:49Bill Simmons?

  Came up last night too. Yeah, it's.

• 1:00:54Bill Simmons?

  I think he stays. It's a better career move and I think he likes LA. Right? You get traded, your son has to come with you. That's weird. Going to Golden State. What, what ultimately are you going to happen? You get to play with Curry. It's an older team. You have a better chance at winning the title with the team you have now. If he's all about titles and like, and, and a, an unbelievable out of nowhere title run, which still dubious, but you go through all these teams and all right, they're playing Houston in round one. Are you going against Luka pissed off with LeBron as his sidekick?

• 1:01:28Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:01:29Bill Simmons?

  Against like Fred Van Vliet? Like, what are we doing?

• 1:01:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, and there's still the buyout market too. And these guys just became the biggest magnet. And that market is always irregular and unreliable. Don't, don't get me started. But every once in a while, there is a valuable piece on the buyout market and they will get really attractive potential buyout pieces looking at their, their team. So I think they have two moves left. You know, this is a big four day period for the Lakers front office. They're gonna look at sending out that pick. They're gonna look at sending out Austin Reeves, maybe even Rui Hashimura,

• 1:02:11Speaker 01

  to try to turn it into something at the five especially, but around these two generational playmakers, two generational playmakers and two guys who do, don't shrink in the playoffs.

• 1:02:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:02:29Speaker 01

  So I think they are gonna try to go, but they are, I think they're gonna do a little bit cautious. I'd be, I'd be surprised if the pick went. I'll say that. I think they're gonna try to do it with personnel.

• 1:02:41Bill Simmons?

  Well, they're gonna be in a situation where they're gonna have to sign Luka this summer. And LeBron's gonna opt into his deal. So they basically have one chance to align all the money because they're gonna get crushed next year, no matter what happens. But they're the Lakers and they shouldn't care because all of a sudden they have this meal ticket of LeBron was about to end with the season tickets, the suites, everything else. You have the Clippers in their new arena, which is awesome. Lakers playing in the shitty Staples Center. And now it's like, now it's, now here's, come see Luka Doncic. And it's a guy that, you know, there's always been a weird thing with LeBron and the Laker fans because it's right after Kobe and there's this whole Kobe contingent. Luka had this awesome early relationship with Kobe and I could just see them being all in on

• 1:03:26Bill Simmons?

  adopting him. And also, he won't be the first guy to move to California and immediately lose 20 pounds and look awesome and be tan and get in shape. It's happened many times. This is what happens when you come out here. Perfect place for it.

• 1:03:38Speaker 01

  Who's he gonna be dating? TMZ is getting ready. But yeah, in all seriousness, that 77 jersey in purple and gold, how long till we start seeing the tweets that the number one selling jersey in the NBA? It's already done. Like, it's, again, this is a team that just finds money. And this is just an updated version of that.

• 1:03:59Bill Simmons?

  It's a born on third base team. It's frustrating itself. The thing with the Lakers though, they do have really good fans, I gotta hand it to them. And they have an expectation. It's annoying that it's always gonna somehow work out, right? Even if they're in the 2010s, they kept ending up with these picks and it was a mess and Kobe's last two years weren't great. And it was always like, we're the Lakers, this is gonna work out. The Celtics used to have that in the 80s and 90s. It's like, well, now it'll work out. And then all of a sudden, it didn't work out forever. And I was always like, just wait with this Lakers thing when LeBron leaves. Just wait. And now they end up with Luka Doncic.

• 1:04:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:04:35Bill Simmons?

  And he'll probably be pissed off.

• 1:04:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, because it felt like they were heading towards an era where they were gonna have a 34-year-old Anthony Davis as their focal point.

• 1:04:45Bill Simmons?

  Just breaking down.

• 1:04:46Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:04:47Bill Simmons?

  Austin Reeves and Max Christie.

• 1:04:49Speaker 01

  And now they're gonna have a 27-year-old Luka Doncic, just angry at the world. And hopefully, you know, they are able to extend him. And I do want to say that, and one of the sort of main points here is like, there's no guarantee he's gonna sign that extension in Los Angeles.

• 1:05:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, what if Miami is like batting their eyelashes at him?

• 1:05:09Speaker 01

  What if San Antonio? Like, what if Oklahoma City? Like, there are teams that are going to let him know that they really want him to play there.

• 1:05:19Bill Simmons?

  Oh, come on, the NBA isn't allowed to do that, Kirk. Teams aren't allowed to talk to players from other teams? That doesn't happen.

• 1:05:26Speaker 01

  God, but it's like, so I think that what that's something I haven't heard talked about enough is there is a chance that he will not want to be there. I think it's a small chance. I think he's now at the New York Yankees and he is sort of that A-Rod character is going to settle into that.

• 1:05:45Bill Simmons?

  People don't leave the Lakers. Once you're here and you're on the Lakers and they're spending money and you're in the sunshine, you don't. Guys have not left the Lakers. Great players, they stay. That's what happens.

• 1:05:58Speaker 01

  All right, let me ask the sports guy this. Let me ask you this. Where does, how far do the Lakers go this year?

• 1:06:10Bill Simmons?

  I feel like I'm gonna throw up. Right now, they're a five seed.

• 1:06:16Bill Simmons?

  They are tied with Denver in losses for the four seed. And they're only three back from Memphis. I think they have to get in the top half of that top four. Right, so they can have at least one home series.

• 1:06:32Bill Simmons?

  I'm just, I'm all in on Luca. I completely believe in him as a terrifying offensive force. And I think he needed a kick in the ass like this. I'm all in on him. Like, I feel like they can make the finals. I don't think it's crazy. We watched them do it last year. And he owns Oklahoma City.

• 1:06:48Speaker 01

  That's right. That's what I was just gonna say.

• 1:06:50Bill Simmons?

  That's the one team they have to beat and he plays great against them. And even this year, he had a good game against them. But, uh, you know, and then you take a team like Denver. How do you beat a team like Denver? With two really gifted offensive players, you know? And then there's the LeBron piece too. This is like an amazing, out of nowhere, you know, life raft for a chance to get another title. And rewrite some of his shit.

• 1:07:15Speaker 01

  And dude, I think his odometer benefits from this. I think off-ball LeBron is, he lasts a little bit longer. He's a little more durable than on-ball LeBron. And, and I think just him setting screens is a crazy concept, like.

• 1:07:31Bill Simmons?

  Them running pick and rolls, right?

• 1:07:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, he's the new Karl Malone. He's just, he just becomes Karl Malone for them. And he's.

• 1:07:37Bill Simmons?

  Well, that was the thing last night in the Knicks game physically. He was so impactful compared to everyone on the Knicks. It just didn't feel like they had a big enough athlete to handle him. And LeBron hasn't felt like that in a while. It really feels like maybe he knew that Luca trade was coming and that's why he was playing with a little, little pep in his step, but I just think those guys are gonna be really hard to play. There's a flip side of this where those two are a disaster on defense. You can't play the two of them with Reeves together. JJ, who is now realizing the weight of, holy shit, I took this Lakers job, but now we have Luka Doncic. He's like, his hair is fucking falling out by April. They aren't able to get the right rim protector.

• 1:08:17Bill Simmons?

  Like, I would say it's 65, 35 for me, that they could actually be an incredibly dangerous playoff team versus. But I was, I was surprised with the people I talked to today. Like, people kinda weren't seeing the immediate title picture. I think Luca, as long as he's healthy, he has to be, it's like Jokic. It's like when Denver looked like shit in the start of the season and we were all worried about them. It's like, well, they still have Jokic. Like, I'm not counting them out yet.

• 1:08:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, Oklahoma City gets my respect. They deserve it.

• 1:08:47Bill Simmons?

  Me too.

• 1:08:48Speaker 01

  Beyond that, Houston, who I adore, Memphis, I love. I just think they're both too young, really. And if you're telling me I have Luca and LeBron against either of those two teams, dude, there's a case for those Lakers to just, to get them with wisdom.

• 1:09:06Bill Simmons?

  I would say the Clippers, from a defensive roster standpoint, are actually built the best to kinda battle this team, which means maybe we'll finally get the Clippers Lakers series we've been waiting for forever. But yeah, I just think in a series, it's gonna be really hard to match baskets with them if Luca's right. And I don't know why he wouldn't be right. He was averaging 28 a game, by the way. I know he's having like his worst statistical year, but yeah, this is an amazing turn of events.

• 1:09:32Speaker 01

  We put it on wax, your season tickets for the Clippers. We put it on wax like three weeks ago that we was like, let's not forget the Los Angeles Clippers. And then Kawhi comes back and they've looked like the best team in the NBA at times.

• 1:09:45Bill Simmons?

  Until today.

• 1:09:47Speaker 01

  What happened today?

• 1:09:48Bill Simmons?

  Or yesterday. No, they, didn't they lose to Toronto?

• 1:09:52Speaker 01

  Oh yeah, that's right. They lost to Toronto. But yeah, like over the last two months, or I should say January, just look it up. Like their indicators scream, this is, we're, we're good. And their defense has been good all year.

• 1:10:06Bill Simmons?

  No Powell today for them though.

• 1:10:09Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:10:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, Clippers versus Lakers. We could see it. Amazing trade. Congrats to the Spurs for getting Fox as well. I don't know. We have four days until the trade deadline, Kirk. I don't know what else to expect. We don't know where Jimmy Butler is going. There's still, what other, what other things should we be watching? Jimmy Butler?

• 1:10:29Speaker 01

  The Nets, the Nets have a for sale sign up in the front yard. I think both Claxton and Cam Johnson are on the move, if I had to guess.

• 1:10:41Bill Simmons?

  Miami, God only knows what they're up to. Are Memphis and Houston gonna feel like they should do something? Which is, would be great for the Lakers if they didn't. Is Cleveland gonna tinker with anything at all? Vucevic is another one. Can the Suns get off Nurkic's deal with a pick? And try to, try to get a better rim protector?

• 1:11:02Speaker 01

  And then. Grant, I think is one to watch in Portland. If Portland can find a taker for Jeremy Grant.

• 1:11:09Bill Simmons?

  And can Milwaukee figure out anything?

• 1:11:13Bill Simmons?

  Would be my other question. Is there, are they just stuck with the team they have?

• 1:11:17Speaker 01

  By the way, another classic Bill Simmons trope that was relevant this crazy weekend is new owner syndrome, which, by the way, when the Bucks changed owners, that's when this Lillard thing happened and the Drew Holiday thing. This is like, the owners remain the most underrated characters in pro sports sagas. And, and this is another example. Would Mark Cuban have done this deal?

• 1:11:42Bill Simmons?

  I was texting somebody about that today, saying Cuban's gotta be disconsolate. Cause first of all, he trades the Mavs as the, or sells the Mavs as the franchises are going up. He's, seems like he had a feeling like he might be involved. He's not. And then Luca, this is handpicked, like, if they win the title, he gets to take credit for that forever. Now they trade him.

• 1:12:05Speaker 01

  I remember one of the, we did a Graham feature with Mark in 2013 or 14 on, you know, at that time, he was like symbolic of this new era of bad boy tech owner guy.

• 1:12:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:12:15Speaker 01

  And we talked about how the Mavs were laughing stock before him, you know, and no disrespect to Mark Aguirre or Orlando Blockman, but they were never a great franchise. And then he gets him to the finals two or three times. And it sure looks like this new ownership group is, is taking things in a different direction. So yeah, he's gotta be just so destroyed.

• 1:12:39Bill Simmons?

  Kurt Goldsberg, great to see you. Looking forward to your next piece. And we'll see you in Austin in a few weeks. Yeah, that's right. Can't wait for that. Big live show coming. Hell, yeah. Good to see you. Thank you. Thank you, brother.

• 1:12:55Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures Wild Horse 9. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell, I like those guys, starring the sharp-witted comedy thriller from Academy Award winner Martin McDonagh. Writer-director of The Banshees of Inisherin and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Set in the 1970s, filmed on location on Easter Island, Malkovich and Rockwell play CIA agents Chris and Lee, who are caught in a dangerous game of secrets and survival. Also starring Steve Buscemi, another one of my guys, Parker Posey and Tom Waits. Wild Horse 9 is being hailed by critics as a revitalizing shot of pure entertainment and easily one of the best films of the year. Don't miss Wild Horse 9, only in theaters Friday. Get tickets now.

• 1:13:41Bill Simmons?

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• 1:14:07Bill Simmons?

  All right, we're taping this on a Sunday afternoon. Sal, you hate this. It's Super Bowl week. It's supposed to be all NFL. And then the NBA holes come flying in with the most shocking trade in NBA history. And now you gotta like, take a side, take a seat on the side. I know a seat on the side. Disgusting, disgusting that this is the most important sports podcast you're gonna do all year. And how many minutes of NBA wholeness did you? I know, it's a double pod this weekend. Yeah, I know. Yeah, but you put the Luca stuff before me, didn't you? Yeah, you did. You're like the second guest.

• 1:14:40Speaker 02

  Son of a bitch.

• 1:14:41Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but we're still going. We're still doing our thing. It's just, you know.

• 1:14:45Speaker 02

  Congratulations. No, listen, your, your, your league is back. You could go back to 17 minute quarters and 100 games in the regular season.

• 1:14:53Bill Simmons?

  We kept 12 minute quarters. We're good now.

• 1:14:55Speaker 02

  That's what happened. Silver's like, hey, man, we gotta, um, what, what they gonna change in the size of the court? And, uh, and how much time is in each quarter? Can we just do something to make Boston, New York and LA great over the next three years? Come on Dallas, can you step up here?

• 1:15:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. What if we put Luca and LeBron on the same team? Well, anyone could, uh, complain about the ratings again.

• 1:15:14Speaker 02

  The good news is, oh, I, I will say your trade machine and trade thoughts, which I thought a lot of times were nonsense. Like when week seven, when we had to do 10 minutes on Yanis to the Nets. And I was like, okay, good, but now people should listen to you because nothing is too ludicrous. There's not one trade that could be too crazy, uh, to, to pass muster here.

• 1:15:34Bill Simmons?

  It really is true. Like the now, at this point, the only person I would refuse to believe got traded is Wemby.

• 1:15:41Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:15:41Bill Simmons?

  I think everyone else in the league, you could talk me into a trade, uh, in, in a ridiculous scenario involving any player. Superbowl Chiefs Eagles, we've had a week to either think about or not think about it. There are a ton of props. Fando has amazing pages and pages of great stuff, great links. We're gonna have Ringer specials on there later. Ringer Sunday pregame is gonna have some stuff. We're like, we're, we're good. Do you have a feel for the Superbowl yet? And has it affected your Superbowl props? The things that you think will happen in the game or you're steering that way already?

• 1:16:13Speaker 02

  Yes, I think so. I think you and I will give our, uh, official picks who's gonna win towards the end of the week. I did notice that I don't need two weeks. I, I don't, let's get to the part where I'm depressed already. Like I don't have to be depressed about being depressed, right? So I, I don't like this extra week in between. It makes me, analysis leads to paralysis. There's like a lot of ways to determine how old we are, like, oh, Babe Ruth won the home run title closer to when we were born than today. You know, and that sucks. And you and I'll send something. Oh, yeah.

• 1:16:45Bill Simmons?

  Is that true?

• 1:16:46Speaker 02

  Three's Company premiered 48 years ago. It all sucks, but I was thinking today, I was like, We at most have 30 more Super Bowls left if we're lucky. Like, I take care of myself. You don't, you know, you, you're gonna start doing cocaine when you're 60. So that's a problem.

• 1:17:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:17:02Speaker 02

  But there's gonna be a thousand more Super Bowls and we're only gonna see 30. That's disgusting to me. That really made me feel sick. So, uh, join in on that.

• 1:17:12Bill Simmons?

  I think about that all the time, how, when, when I'm finally dead, how mad I'm gonna be, not just that I'm dead, but I'm not gonna know what's gonna happen for the next 25 Super Bowls, NBA. It's like, oh shit.

• 1:17:22Speaker 02

  Comment.

• 1:17:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:17:25Bill Simmons?

  I am, my lean is close game.

• 1:17:30Bill Simmons?

  I have two leans so far and I'm still debating where to go with the game and probably will decide on Tuesday. But it feels like the line is off. And it feels like it's gonna be a close game. Those are my two leans. I actually think the Eagles should be favored the more I stare at this. And I don't know what the Mahomes tax is at this point, but it feels like it's a field goal.

• 1:17:51Speaker 02

  Right. At least. Can you say both those things? Like, I know most people, like Raheem has a model and most people have models, might even have the Eagles by three at this point. And so, but can you also say, but I think it's gonna be a close game? Cause if you're gonna lean model and Eagles, and you think it's gonna be a close game, how dare you go against Mahomes in a close game?

• 1:18:11Bill Simmons?

  Then the Chiefs should win the fourth game of a close game. I guess more like, I don't think it's gonna be a blowout. Like, I don't think either of these teams is blowing out the other team. Could one of them win by 10 points, 12? Sure. But it feels like it's gonna be a relatively close game, no blowout. And I just think the Eagles should be favored by like two and a half on a neutral field.

• 1:18:32Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:18:33Bill Simmons?

  They have more good players all over the place. They have an easier way to win than the Chiefs do. And you go back and you look at, as great as the Chiefs were, the fact that they were 17 and two throwing, week 18, they're basically 17 and one, you throw a week 18. But, um, It just was harder for them week to week than when you watch this Eagles team just seems to be really cruel. I mean, the Eagles have won 15 of the last 16.

• 1:19:01Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:19:02Bill Simmons?

  Pretty easily.

• 1:19:02Speaker 02

  So you're taking the Eagles. That's okay.

• 1:19:04Bill Simmons?

  I'm leaning toward the Eagles and I, I'm just afraid to go against Mahomes, which is why the line is where the line is. That's why, that's the whole point of this line is nobody wants to bet against the Chiefs.

• 1:19:13Speaker 02

  I wouldn't look into the line too. By the way, I'm going to pretend to get texts from NFL GMs during this pod. I felt that was very effective with Rossello last night with the NBA guy.

• 1:19:21Bill Simmons?

  It's a great wrinkle for him. Yeah.

• 1:19:23Speaker 02

  All right.

• 1:19:23Bill Simmons?

  It's like, oh, the Memphis GM.

• 1:19:26Speaker 02

  But I would disregard the line because I do have facts here. In the first 58 Super Bowls, only seven times has a favorite won and not covered. It happened with the Rams, Bengals, most recently.

• 1:19:37Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:19:37Speaker 02

  It happened twice in the last 17 years. So take KC minus one and a half or take Philly money line. You're, you'll probably be okay, right?

• 1:19:45Bill Simmons?

  That's a playoff manifesto staple, especially at this time. You're, you're just betting who you think's going to win. Don't worry about the line.

• 1:19:51Speaker 02

  Yeah. So that's what I'll say about that. But I think you're right. It might be off, but I also think it doesn't matter because of that fact I just laid.

• 1:19:57Bill Simmons?

  Well, it matters for teasers and stuff.

• 1:19:59Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:20:00Bill Simmons?

  So you can get Philly above seven. Pretty tasty. Um, all right. So every year, and we've been doing this forever. I, I actually researched this. We were the first people, the first two people ever to like Super Bowl props.

• 1:20:14Speaker 02

  Yo, you researched it, really?

• 1:20:15Bill Simmons?

  The media. Yeah. We were the first ones. I don't think a lot of people read. Nobody ever talked about Super Bowl props.

• 1:20:21Speaker 02

  That's true.

• 1:20:22Bill Simmons?

  We felt like we were really going on a limb. We did a pod and like maybe the 2007 Super Bowl and we floated some props and everybody in the world was like, what are these? What are these guys talking about? Now all these years later, it's cottage industry. I don't feel like we get the credit. There'd never been a Super Bowl prop before we did a podcast.

• 1:20:38Speaker 02

  I love it. I, we willed it into existence.

• 1:20:40Bill Simmons?

  As far as we know.

• 1:20:41Speaker 02

  They, right. They actually didn't even exist. Like first touchdown? What? What are these guys talking about?

• 1:20:46Bill Simmons?

  We started, we started everything.

• 1:20:47Speaker 02

  You couldn't find it. You couldn't even bet it. So eventually we forced the books to actually come up with these. Yeah.

• 1:20:52Bill Simmons?

  That's actually not true, obviously. And, uh, the first time we watched the Super Bowl together. When it was the first day Jimmy Kimmel was doing a show and we were in charge of monitoring the Tampa Bay Oakland game.

• 1:21:04Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:21:04Bill Simmons?

  And coming up with jokes and we were in a van and you had this whole printout sheet of Super Bowl props. That was like 58 pages and we're just going through and there would be silence. It'd be like, hey Simmons, what about Rich Gannon, over under completions? And that was just the whole ride. So we've loved this forever.

• 1:21:23Speaker 02

  That was a great find. When you could, you had to sort through, the internet wasn't what it is now. And if you could find a PDF where you could print all the props.

• 1:21:30Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:21:30Speaker 02

  And it would just send your printer into a tizzy, you know, it'd be like 25 pages.

• 1:21:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, because it'd be, all the HTML would be off. It would be like, the margins would be too small. You'd have like these little crazy beautiful mind notes on each page. Now we just go to Fanduel and there's all these hyperlinks.

• 1:21:46Speaker 02

  Come a long way.

• 1:21:47Bill Simmons?

  Beautifully separated. It's great. Um, let's, can we start with MVP?

• 1:21:51Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:21:52Bill Simmons?

  Because there's a couple. Mahomes is plus 110, Barkley's plus 280, Hertz is plus 370. And the most interesting one was the field versus Mahomes is minus 150. And we always look at this and we always like it. And, but if you think, if you think KC's not going to win, this feels like a fun MVP bet because you basically get everybody else.

• 1:22:11Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's true.

• 1:22:12Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if you could parlay it with other stuff.

• 1:22:14Speaker 02

  I didn't look at it that way. That is good. And I was thinking though, so we have to get in their heads, right? Is there Mahomes fatigue if the Chiefs win for MVP? Like, uh, he didn't have a great game against Philly.

• 1:22:26Bill Simmons?

  No.

• 1:22:26Speaker 02

  Against Philly? No, the last game. So he, he stayed under 200 yards, but had three touchdowns and they had to give it to him, right? So I'm trying to think, write a script for how Mahomes doesn't get MVP if the Chiefs win. Is it Kelsey announces Thursday that he's going to retire after this game and he gets two touchdowns?

• 1:22:43Bill Simmons?

  Xavier Worthy, like eight for 120. There's that like Julian Edelman type of game that's sitting there. There's like the big Kelsey game. I don't know if any, the way they use their running backs, I don't see how either running back would be in it.

• 1:22:56Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:22:57Bill Simmons?

  So you're looking at a crazy Worthy game, a crazy Kelsey game or Mahomes if KC wins.

• 1:23:02Speaker 02

  The funny thing is.

• 1:23:03Bill Simmons?

  Mahomes plus 110 is nice.

• 1:23:04Speaker 02

  You talk about how like long, how. Come such a far way, however you say that we uh you could live bet the MVP, right? And remember like Kaderius Tony was like a punchline now. He had like a big game. He had a big punt return and a touchdown like, oh, man. But Mahomes was still favored. I remember looking at that like, you know, so there's something to look at that. I think choosing between Barkley and Hertz is really tough. If you're taking the Eagles, I might just rather take the Eagles. I did look at defensive MVP is plus 1500. Once the game gets to the 40s, you're kind of cooked, but nine out of 57 defensive players have won. And so that's like one out of six or one out of seven and you're getting 15 to one. It's not bad.

• 1:23:47Bill Simmons?

  The problem with uh the problem with taking the field versus Mahomes. I guess you get everyone on the Chiefs too with that minus 150. So it's a parlay of the Eagle side, which you could just bet straight up for plus 110. But then you're covered on every other non Mahomes thing. But um I think the best value is Barkley. At plus 280 because I think if they win, I think he's going to be the best player in the game would be my my assumption. Like he gashes them a couple of times. He's been the best part of the playoffs. It's a narrative that makes sense to me and I thought the odds were pretty good. What would what would the Hertz game have to be for MVP? So he's throwing two touchdowns, probably one deep one. It's probably 20 for 27 for 255.

• 1:24:32Bill Simmons?

  He probably has one long run of like a 40 yard run. Maybe he's like seven for 52 running. And he's just, it's something like that, right?

• 1:24:42Speaker 02

  I think you're right, but plus it's Barkley's birthday, you know, on the Super Bowl. So I don't know how much that factors in. Yeah. Turns 28. Is that what it is? And plus, if it's plus 280 and he turns 28, am I wrong to say he's 28? That's uh that's pretty good numbers, but I think you're right. I don't know if Hertz getting the touchdowns on the tush push, if he gets like three of those and puts up good yards, if that's going to put him over the top. But it's it's been Barkley's year. I think that's that's probably the case for Barkley. Yeah. Plus 280 is still good if it's close to three.

• 1:25:12Bill Simmons?

  The Barkley bets that jumped out. So I've never monitored this, but there was a 25 plus rushing yards each quarter for plus 750.

• 1:25:20Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:25:21Bill Simmons?

  That I've never bet on and I have no idea if that's a good bet or not. It seems terrible. Two touchdowns is plus 280? So you'd have to, you'd probably have to break one of those, then maybe get one around five or six. Thought the odds were pretty good. There was one where him and Kareem Hunt, 200 plus rush yards is three to one. So you figure he, if he got over like 130, 140, if you thought Hunt was going to be in the 50s, 60s, that could get there. Three to one's nice, but I think the one I like the most is 169 plus rushing yards, which would be a new record. Is five to one.

• 1:26:00Bill Simmons?

  So you could just bet on that. And basically the bet is, I bet that Saquon Barkley will break the record. 169, boom, five to one.

• 1:26:09Speaker 02

  It's pretty good. Yeah. I was looking at, you said Barkley, two plus touchdowns is plus 270? So that's the same.

• 1:26:14Bill Simmons?

  No, it's plus 280. Yeah.

• 1:26:17Speaker 02

  So that's the same odds as his MVP, right?

• 1:26:20Bill Simmons?

  Right. So you just take that instead?

• 1:26:22Speaker 02

  That's interesting. I think I might want to take that instead. I don't think there's a, a game where.

• 1:26:27Bill Simmons?

  So you like that one the most? Do you have any other Barkley bets?

• 1:26:29Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, it's funny. Um, you said that, actually this one, uh, was just texting me from Les Snead of the Rams, uh, GM. He said, um, Kelsey, Kelsey, 25 or more receiving yards in each half is, uh, is a good number there. So that, that happened already this year. And if that.

• 1:26:48Bill Simmons?

  What's the odds on that?

• 1:26:49Speaker 02

  It's like plus, plus 220 or something. Oh, man. Oh, all right. Yeah. Yeah. So it's 307 yards over the last three Super Bowls. So I, I kind of like that. And then I'd already hit against the Texans this year. So.

• 1:27:02Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:27:03Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:27:04Bill Simmons?

  So I had the Barkley one, the hurt stuff.

• 1:27:09Bill Simmons?

  There's an anytime TD for him for minus 115. And that's just one tush push, right? If it's first and goal from the two, third and goal from the one. I gotta say, I was surprised that was the line.

• 1:27:24Speaker 02

  It's every week.

• 1:27:25Bill Simmons?

  It was gonna be like minus 140. It's just, it's almost like surprising if he doesn't get one. That one jump out to you?

• 1:27:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, we go crazy about it on the Ring of Pregame show and I don't know if there's like a million props. So they'll throw in one you could win on automatically there, but it's so easy there. It's minus 110 or right, right in there. He 10 of the last 13 games he scored a touchdown. So why that should that be almost even odds? And they have a play designed for it. So it's almost suspicious. Here's another one that goes along with it. Shortest touchdown under minus one, uh, under one and a half yards. No, I, we used to love this one, right?

• 1:27:59Bill Simmons?

  Oh, wow. We bet that a bunch of times.

• 1:28:01Speaker 02

  Yeah. So the vig is a little high. It's minus 172. But we loved it before the tush push and now it's like, you know, it, it was tw- he, he did it twice. Last matchup, twice first San Francisco, uh, first time four of the five in the Super Bowl. Seven of the last nine Super Bowls have seen, uh, shortest touchdown under one and a half yards.

• 1:28:23Bill Simmons?

  What are the, what are the odds on that?

• 1:28:25Speaker 02

  It's minus 172. It's not great. So you might just want to take Hertz for the touchdown minus 110. But for seven of the last nine Super Bowls, it didn't hit last year. So that's why I like it especially now. I really like that.

• 1:28:39Bill Simmons?

  So Fando has, they have that, uh, that anytime touchdown that like either first one or last one of the game. That they're putting a pretty big thing on that you could get in. If it's an anytime TD bet and it ends up being the first touchdown in the game, you end up in this bonus bets pool. If it's the last touchdown of the game, same thing. And I think Kurtz was my favorite anytime touchdown bet. I li- I bet that goes up. I think that's going to be like minus 135 by game time. Two other things with him. Longest run was 11 and a half yards. And it feels like every game they have that one run where it's like the, the, the delayed QB draw. And he's running to the right or the left and he just goes for like 30 yards.

• 1:29:22Bill Simmons?

  And I can't believe that wouldn't happen in this game once. So 11 and a half, I really liked. And then longest pass of the game for him. 32 and a half yards. So, and this ties into some AJ Brown stats too, but when you look at the Chiefs, so they gave up, against Buffalo, they gave up a 34 yarder, a 24 yarder and 23 yarder. Against Houston, they give up a 34 yarder, a 24 yarder and 24 yarder. So, they do give up big plays when you watch, where it's like that bend but don't break, but you can bust one on them. So, I was thinking, I like that one too. The just longest one, 33 yard pass to somebody, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, maybe it's

• 1:30:06Bill Simmons?

  got it, maybe Barkley on a wheel route. Don't you think they'll bust one?

• 1:30:11Speaker 02

  Yeah, I like that a lot. I mean, I love Spagnolo's defense, but it does, you know, it takes a minute to settle in sometimes. I think you could break a tackle or something in there. That's a good one.

• 1:30:22Bill Simmons?

  What'd you feel about passing yards? There's two. There's 210.5 is the over under for Hertz. You could go 175 plus passing yards for him is minus 310. I think they're too goofy. I almost feel like the total pass yards is a stay away for him because we've seen games where they just run the ball all the time. We've also seen games where they veered out. It doesn't make sense to me.

• 1:30:45Speaker 02

  Yeah. So, I think you have to like script it out in your head, right? Because for a lot of these last games, he was winning with 154 yards passing, right? And then last week, he kind of surprised us. He's like throwing on third and six. We're like, what are you doing? You have a fourth and one play that never fails. Why are you throwing on third and six? And he would complete it, Devonta Smith and AJ Brown, they had big games. So, what do you feel? Do you feel like they're going to play catch up? If you feel like they're going to have to play catch up at some point, or that, hey, it's a Super Bowl, the scoring just gets out of hand, then I think you go over. But otherwise, if you're a pro Barkley on everything. I mean, his three plus touchdowns, Hertz is 36 to one. Barkley's three plus touchdowns is 15 to one. So, can have fun with those too.

• 1:31:26Bill Simmons?

  So out of those Barkley, Hertz, what's your favorite one? I think I like the rush yard record for plus five to one on Barkley, just for the hell of it. I like your two touchdowns and I like the anytime TD in the longest pass, longest run for Hertz. Like I feel like you at least split those.

• 1:31:41Speaker 02

  Yeah, I also like Saquon or Hertz to have two or more touchdowns at plus one seven. I was like banging my head against the desk, trying to figure out which of these two is going to get two or more. And then Fandel has a spot for it where either they have like an either or guy thing. Uh, Saquon or Hertz, two plus touchdowns, plus one seventy. You're almost definitely.

• 1:32:00Bill Simmons?

  Oh, wow. That's, that's, those are way better odds than the Barkley plus two eighty.

• 1:32:04Speaker 02

  Yeah, you're gonna get, you're gonna be one away at halftime, right? You're just gonna need some luck to push it over the top.

• 1:32:10Bill Simmons?

  Too bad you can't hedge that. A.J. Brown, I didn't really have any stuff I like for him. Some of the, some of the stuff isn't out yet. That usually comes Wednesday, Thursday, like the completion bets and things like that.

• 1:32:21Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:32:22Bill Simmons?

  But, um, A.J. Brown just seems hit or miss to me. I'm staying away. Any other Eagles bets that you're fired up about?

• 1:32:28Speaker 02

  Uh, I like Devontae Smith. I think they, um, they have, uh, for Eagles, not, not too much, like seventy plus for him is plus two oh five, eighty plus is plus three twenty. So if you got that long play in there and you think it's going to be him. Um, we haven't done Chiefs yet, right? You're going in order of the, yeah, okay. Yeah. So that's really it. So I also, um, kicker prop here, Elliott over seven and a half. Like you think to yourself, oh, this team's always going on fourth and one. They don't have, you know, they're not going to kick. He's gone seven straight games where he's got, had seven and a half or more points. And he had nine in the Super Bowl. So the tush push doesn't really factor into like their scoring chances with Jake Elliott.

• 1:33:08Bill Simmons?

  So what are the odds on the seven and a half?

• 1:33:10Speaker 02

  It's just even odds. Yeah. Minus one ten.

• 1:33:12Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Cause one of the ones, one of the bets that's not out yet is the missed field goal thing for him. Cause he's.

• 1:33:17Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:33:18Bill Simmons?

  Always feels like he, uh, he has one at some point. All right. So on the Chief side. Some Mahomes bets that jumped out to me over 29 and a half rush yards. Just too many times with his legs. Like if you look at the biggest games he's played. The, the, the completions, I'm sorry, the carries are more exciting to me. Five and a half carries. Cause you get that 29 and a half rush yards.

• 1:33:44Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 1:33:45Bill Simmons?

  You have the potential of the kneels not going to back. The carries are the carries. That's minus 140. So there's some juice.

• 1:33:50Speaker 02

  And they'll help you with the carries. Yeah.

• 1:33:52Bill Simmons?

  This year, he was 11 for 43 against Buffalo. He was seven for 14 against Houston, including the three kneels at the end. Uh, in 2023, nine for 66 against San Fran. Six for 15 against Baltimore and six for 19 against Buffalo. So the last five times he's had six or more. And then if you look at the Super Bowls, the other Super Bowls, the Philly one, six for 44, the Tampa one, five for 33, San Francisco, nine for 29. So the only time he didn't get five and a half out of. You know, eight of the biggest games of his career and all the Super Bowls is that one Tampa game when he had five, not six. So to me, over carries minus 140, I'm putting the juice on, I'm doing it.

• 1:34:34Speaker 02

  I like that a lot. Um, yeah, he infamously went under in yards when he had that eclipse, right? Against San Francisco in the Super Bowl, when he started taking kneels. I like, uh, much like you do, it hurts. I like over 11 and a half longest rush for Mahomes. He's hit this in four of his last five games, uh, averaging 13 for a longest over that stretch. So, yeah. I mean, I, I think that's how you play Mahomes.

• 1:34:57Bill Simmons?

  Maybe do both of them.

• 1:34:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'd be a little nervous about the actual yardage, but.

• 1:35:02Bill Simmons?

  So the other one, if you want to do a yardage bet, I would recommend the 40 plus rush yards for Mahomes. That's plus 180.

• 1:35:12Bill Simmons?

  And again, 43 against Buffalo, 66 against San Francisco, 44 against Philly. So he's done it a few times. You're basically getting two to one odds, but I think he's going to need to do it in this game. Cause Philly's, the way they're going to probably play defense on him, they have those four guys. They play everybody else back. They fake blitz. They do all these different things, but if you're just rushing those four, he can just slide out and over and over again, find these pockets.

• 1:35:37Speaker 02

  Yeah, I like that.

• 1:35:38Bill Simmons?

  I like him with his legs in this game and he's healthy too. We know he's healthy.

• 1:35:42Speaker 02

  He's healthy. He's also, there's a, there's a stat for him or a bet for him under one and under two and a half sacks that he takes. He's hit this in four of his last five, you know, is, I mean, he knows when to take off. He's just the smartest there is, so.

• 1:35:56Bill Simmons?

  Mahomes under two and a half sacks. That's a good one. Cause if, if he's over two and a half sacks, Casey's probably not winning.

• 1:36:04Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:36:04Bill Simmons?

  So Kareem Hunt is somebody that really fascinates me.

• 1:36:08Speaker 02

  Hmm.

• 1:36:09Bill Simmons?

  Anytime touchdown for him is plus 135. He scored in the last four games. Two touchdowns for him is plus 950. And the reason I mention it is because Mahomes, they don't run sneaks with him. So unless Mahomes scores from like the four yard line or the seven, like when it's around the goal line, they go with running backs. His 50 plus yards is plus 115 for rushing. 70 plus yards is plus 320. Most rushing yards in a game, if you like KC is, is seven to one for Hunt. But I, you know, I was looking back at the Houston game and then especially the Buffalo game. He was 17 for 64 in that Buffalo game and they threw to him once. Pacheco was five for 12. I think the Eagles are big. Pacheco's like a little guy. I actually think Hunt's going to be the guy for them in this game and I feel

• 1:36:53Bill Simmons?

  like it's gravitating toward them anyway, or for that anyway, when uh, the bigger the moment it is, it just seems like they like having Hunt out there. So I kinda like all the Hunt bets.

• 1:37:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, he's their tush push, right? Like he's a wrecking ball at the one or two yard line. So they give it to him, he goes in. Um, Pacheco, I would only take his like receiving props. I don't, I don't think they trust him. I don't trust him as a running back. Over four and a half longest reception for Pacheco's hit 13 of the last 17. Um, he averages like nine over that stretch, but let Let me throw this by you. I'm putting a little on Mahomes for first touchdown at 18 to one. I know because he got injured, they don't do the tush push. A little talked about play, it should be spoken about more is when he rushed to the line of scrimmage against Buffalo and did that. End around that basically that bootleg to get the first down.

• 1:37:47Speaker 02

  I think Andy Reid wants to have an F you moment here, whether it's a Philly special or something. I think I could see him wanting Mahomes to score from the one. I don't know if it's early on or late in the game. But you might get, you might get a sneak. I mean, I don't know why. Is he more likely to get injured? I know he got injured on the sneak years ago, but.

• 1:38:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, they've, they've just never run it since he got hurt. Right. Along those lines, there was a Chiefs prop I liked. It was over four and a half guys that rushed the ball. And this basically goes down to P Ryan. If P Ryan.

• 1:38:21Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:38:21Bill Simmons?

  He runs the ball, they get to five because worthy has at least one carry every game. Hunt and Pacheco, Mahomes is going to run. So you're basically betting on P Ryan. P Ryan has no runs in the playoffs. And the Chiefs always zag when they get to the Super Bowl. So I wonder, is there like the one, it's like. Third and nine. Oh my God, it's a draw, draw play to P Ryan, but I like the four and a half over.

• 1:38:42Speaker 02

  I did, it's going to come down to like stupid replay because. Mahomes, you might get P Ryan, but it could be just like a little flip play where it counts as a pass.

• 1:38:52Bill Simmons?

  Oh, then it seems like a, yeah, that would suck.

• 1:38:56Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the, the Mahomes stuff, I love the stuff with his legs. The hunt stuff, I think he's going to actually. You know, be pretty prominently involved. The guy that I can't get a handle on is Kelsey, who's, oh, you just figure. The yards for all of his props are five yards higher than they should be because he's such, he's the most public prop bet there is. You can do 80 plus yards for him is plus 235. Seven plus receptions is plus 135 and then there's that. 25 plus yards each half is two to one.

• 1:39:28Bill Simmons?

  I, to me, he's a stay away. I didn't like how he disappeared in that last game. No N'Kobe Dean, so maybe that's, maybe that's a way for him to, but I, I just feel like they're gonna take him out.

• 1:39:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm torn here because maybe they stole enough money from us in the AFC Championship game because we all bet Kelsey props, right? So maybe that's, okay, so maybe he comes back. And we know, I gave you his Super Bowl numbers, right? Like 307, I think in three games. But there's another way to do this. I like, I'm looking at Noah Gray for a long of 10 or more yards because the Eagles weren't great against the tight ends, right? Like, um, what was it? It was Zach Ertz went for 110, he had like 10 catches or something last week, something crazy. Noah Gray's 10 or more for a long, uh, he's hitting 12 of the last 17, so that could be.

• 1:40:17Bill Simmons?

  What are the odds on that?

• 1:40:18Speaker 02

  I mean, it's just even, even up, uh, but you know, that could be something that.

• 1:40:23Bill Simmons?

  That's a good one. They go to him a lot too. I like that one. So you agree that Kelsey's a stay.

• 1:40:27Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think the yards is just tough with him. So I would do the first half, second half, that's it.

• 1:40:34Bill Simmons?

  Um, game props, my favorite ones. Both teams get a fourth down conversion is minus 124. I, I don't, I can't remember the last NFL game I watched where both teams didn't get a fourth down. The Eagles seem to get at least one every game. Minus 124 seems like a layup.

• 1:40:51Speaker 02

  And I had, I had this written down. They, I mean, they've gotten a fourth down conversion in every playoff game this year, both teams. So that's, that's 5-0 and they're 70% plus on the year and that's top three in the league. So great.

• 1:41:05Bill Simmons?

  There's another one that I, I wouldn't recommend, but I thought was interesting just because I thought the odds would have been like more better for the better. Um, fourth down conversion in your own territory, minus 114.

• 1:41:19Speaker 02

  Oh, wow.

• 1:41:20Bill Simmons?

  Like, why is that like plus 160?

• 1:41:22Speaker 02

  Oh, wow.

• 1:41:23Bill Simmons?

  It's so weird to go, go in your own territory, but if that's minus 114, then why wouldn't I just bet on both teams to get a fourth down conversion?

• 1:41:30Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:41:31Bill Simmons?

  You know?

• 1:41:31Speaker 02

  That's what I do.

• 1:41:34Bill Simmons?

  So, successful two-point conversion. A bet that I think we've done the last couple of years and the odds still haven't shifted enough on it. It's plus 175. It feels like we have one every year.

• 1:41:46Speaker 02

  You know, I looked at it and it felt like it, but it's not, it's not the case. No, it's not.

• 1:41:51Bill Simmons?

  Did I, I just, I tested that?

• 1:41:53Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, look at the scores. They're all like 20, you know, I, I think, uh, you need a guy, you need a kicker probably to miss at some point. And some weird shit to happen, but are you looking for four, both teams or one team? Is it, you said one team converts?

• 1:42:08Bill Simmons?

  It just says any two, any successful two-point conversion is, is, uh, my plus 175.

• 1:42:14Speaker 02

  Yeah. All right. So I think you need like five touchdowns. You can, and one of them is a two-point conversion.

• 1:42:18Bill Simmons?

  Maybe it's a stay away. How about a 60-yard reception for either team? Plus 435, 60-yard plus. That's like one worthy down the sideline or one AJ Brown. I wanted the odds to be better for that.

• 1:42:33Speaker 02

  Seems like a Super Bowl play, maybe, yeah.

• 1:42:36Bill Simmons?

  And then, um, this is one of my favorites.

• 1:42:40Bill Simmons?

  Philly wins the time of possession. Minus 128. I went back and looked and they've won like almost every week, it feels like. And if you think they're going to win the game, then they're going to win the time possession. I had the LA at 7 and 1/2 points as well. Did you have Jalen Carter over three and a half tackles and assists for plus 120?

• 1:43:00Speaker 02

  I did write that down. Yeah.

• 1:43:02Bill Simmons?

  That's a fucking maniac. How is he not going to get four tackles and assists?

• 1:43:06Speaker 02

  Yeah. I had Dejean over, uh, or Dejean over one and a half assists. He's hit this in five straight. And I had Quinian Mitchell under a half of assists. He's five out of six if you go under there. By the way, I did have, sorry, Kelsey, this could be a good, uh, Kelsey one. Oh, Kelsey first catch for Kansas City, plus 230. Last two Super Bowls, he's had the first catch.

• 1:43:28Bill Simmons?

  What was it, plus 230?

• 1:43:30Speaker 02

  Plus 230. Yeah. Last two Super Bowls, he had a one-yard catch and a 20-yard catch.

• 1:43:35Bill Simmons?

  My favorite pro.

• 1:43:37Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:43:38Bill Simmons?

  And then we're gonna take a break and then you're gonna go through all your crazy props.

• 1:43:42Speaker 02

  All right.

• 1:43:44Bill Simmons?

  Chris Jones sack.

• 1:43:46Speaker 02

  Ooh.

• 1:43:46Bill Simmons?

  Plus 136. So what do we know? What have we seen from the Eagles? Hertz will go back and if it's not there, he holds it on too long. We see guys go up the middle and get them. And it seems to happen twice a game. That's exactly what Chris Jones was put on the earth to do is to push the line back. And every once in a while, he gets to the guy. And I just was surprised. I thought that was gonna be. I don't know, even odds. Plus 136.

• 1:44:11Speaker 02

  It's pretty good.

• 1:44:12Bill Simmons?

  Free value.

• 1:44:12Speaker 02

  I like that. When they're switching in centers during the game and that means you can't really double team a Chris Jones. So it's pretty good. I'll have more to say about that, a bigger moment, but yes, there's nothing wrong with that. Yeah.

• 1:44:24Bill Simmons?

  All right. So those are all mine. We're gonna take a break. We're gonna come back. The cousin's gonna rip through his favorites and then the most important part of the podcast. The Gary Russell bet. Can't wait. Next.

• 1:44:36Speaker 02

  There we go.

• 1:44:41Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by ServiceNow. Look, I already have my dream job. I run the ringer, argue with Chris Ryan, AKA CR. But even dream jobs have not so dreamy parts. You know, the work that slows you down never seems to go away. That's where ServiceNow's AI specialists come in. They're like digital teammates who actually do the job, start to finish. No handoffs, no homework. That means more time for the work that actually matters, which for me is talking about whether the 86 Celtics can beat the 96 Bulls, which they could. To learn how to put AI to work for people, visit servicenow.com. This episode is brought to you by TikTok. When you watch a football game, you follow the ball, right? Well, there's a video on TikTok where this guy says to watch the players without the ball.

• 1:45:22Bill Simmons?

  Watch the routes and the action away from the play. I'll change how you see the game. And guess what? He's not wrong. That's the thing about discovery on TikTok. One video can change the way you see the game. You can learn something new or see things in a completely different way. Your next discovery is waiting on TikTok. Visit tiktok.com/discovermore.

• 1:45:41Bill Simmons?

  All right, cuz you have the floor. Rip through your bets and then we'll be Gary Russell.

• 1:45:45Speaker 02

  Let's do it. Any quarter to end 0-0 plus 310.

• 1:45:50Speaker 02

  This has happened 25% of the games, like 14 times. Like I think for the last nine, the first quarters ended 0-0. I love the zeros everywhere. You can go on Fanduel and buy your squares now, right? You don't have to get stuck with 2-5 at some shitty Super Bowl party and pretend you have a chance and do the math all day with a girl who's selling Girl Scout cookies, someone's, you know, a great niece ends up winning it without paying attention anymore.

• 1:46:17Bill Simmons?

  Or Daniel buying four squares and then three other squares for little kids and then just winning it.

• 1:46:22Speaker 02

  Yeah, they haven't looked at the the screen at once. So I love that, that you could buy your own squares. KC 7-0 is plus 650. Philly 7-0 first quarter is plus 650. I'd take a chance on those.

• 1:46:34Bill Simmons?

  650?

• 1:46:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, for first quarter. Yep.

• 1:46:37Bill Simmons?

  What, is there a 7 to 3?

• 1:46:39Speaker 02

  Of course. Yeah. 7, 3, 0s. Mix them all up. Have some fun. There's one freaking game left.

• 1:46:44Bill Simmons?

  Great. That sounds way more fun than being in a pool.

• 1:46:47Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah. Do it up. I would think you would like this, the triple crown bets. These are like the anchor bets you were doing, House were doing, right?

• 1:46:55Bill Simmons?

  I couldn't land on the right one for the right odds. I was looking at, you say you can bet Mahomes throws for the most pass.

• 1:47:02Speaker 02

  Good.

• 1:47:03Bill Simmons?

  Barkley does the most rushing and then, oh, I'll get nuts with Xavier Worthy as most receiving and that's my threesome.

• 1:47:09Speaker 02

  Plus 650 right there. But if you anchor the two, if you could be at peace with the fact that Mahomes is gonna have more passing yards, you know, not a, not a certainty, but you know, like just live with it and Barkley could be the rushing yard leader. Then put Worthy in, then put A.J. Brown in, then put Devante Smith in. You can have like a nice little, you know, three or four bets there.

• 1:47:30Bill Simmons?

  So you're saying.

• 1:47:31Speaker 02

  10 to 1.

• 1:47:32Bill Simmons?

  So you're saying just do a whole bunch of them?

• 1:47:35Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:47:36Bill Simmons?

  Like do your Mahomes.

• 1:47:37Speaker 02

  For everything, man. We got one game left.

• 1:47:39Bill Simmons?

  Pick two or three.

• 1:47:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, exactly.

• 1:47:42Bill Simmons?

  And then we have Luka Doncic on the Lakers to bet on. Like, we're fine.

• 1:47:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, we're good.

• 1:47:46Bill Simmons?

  The NBA is here to save you. Crazy bets.

• 1:47:50Speaker 02

  Luca first Ozempic shot, plus 160 on Monday. I don't know how that happened.

• 1:47:55Bill Simmons?

  Luca first gluten-free diet consultation.

• 1:47:59Speaker 02

  He's gonna be like the the Jonah Hill after because this is gonna be such a practical joke.

• 1:48:04Bill Simmons?

  I mean, being in a really nice sunny city does have a way of making you feel bad when you're, you know, when you're when you're pulling over the T-shirt and it's a little tight because you're about to walk around.

• 1:48:14Speaker 02

  Not me, but yeah, him. Yeah, I should. Yeah. Um, all right. We gotta do the Sal special Eagles first half Chiefs game plus 750. It hit the last two years. Chiefs were drowning at halftime against the Niners.

• 1:48:28Bill Simmons?

  What a great one.

• 1:48:29Speaker 02

  Yeah, and the Eagles. So plus 750. And if you want to go the other way, Chiefs first half Eagles game, plus 800. So a tie does not help you.

• 1:48:39Bill Simmons?

  Eagles first half Chiefs game. Plus 750. I mean, I could actually see that happening. I would have thought that would have been like plus 500.

• 1:48:48Speaker 02

  Yeah. That's the one.

• 1:48:50Bill Simmons?

  Great one, guys.

• 1:48:52Speaker 02

  All right.

• 1:48:52Bill Simmons?

  Cousins South special. Fando should fucking give that to you. They should name that officially, the Cousins South special. People should know what it is.

• 1:48:59Speaker 02

  Thank you. Thank you. Um. Both teams complete the first pass minus 120. This one I got from GM John Schneider just texted me for the Seattle Seahawks. So, uh, yeah, both teams first pass.

• 1:49:13Bill Simmons?

  First completion, both teams.

• 1:49:16Speaker 02

  This has hit four in a row. All four, five, six, one yard passes. These guys don't screw around. I don't know. I don't see them going for the home run ball early on, right?

• 1:49:27Bill Simmons?

  So this is like second and seven. Let's throw the quick out to Noah Gray for four. Let's take Goddard really quick.

• 1:49:34Speaker 02

  Goddard.

• 1:49:34Bill Simmons?

  Little shovel pass. Just let's keep the clock moving.

• 1:49:38Speaker 02

  Confidence builder, only minus 120. Not great, but, uh, still, um. Exact scores. This is fun, too. KC to score exactly 30 is 17 to one, 27 is 11 to one, 24 is 10 to one. Five times this year, it's hit on those three numbers. For the Eagles, 28, 27, and 26. You got 22 to one, 11 to one, 23 to one. Five times those numbers have hit. Live it up, man. Live it up. Uh, let's see. What else do I want to do? Oh, here's something interesting. So they have the playoff leaders, right?

• 1:50:11Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:50:11Speaker 02

  Up until like wild card.

• 1:50:13Bill Simmons?

  Saw that. So isn't, who's the guy who's still winning for receivers?

• 1:50:17Speaker 02

  Deami Brown.

• 1:50:18Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:50:19Speaker 02

  229 yards. He's plus 360. I think he could hold on. I think this is where he shines. I think he shines next Sunday by not being in the game. He is, uh, Goddard has 188. So if you don't think Goddard will have 46, you're good there. Kelsey has 136. He would need, you know, 90 something. And Worthy has 130. I just think plus 360 for the leader at this point. Might be a, a decent way to go.

• 1:50:46Bill Simmons?

  I almost wonder if the move is to bet the over on Goddard, but then you also bet the Deami Brown bet. And you can hedge it either way, right?

• 1:50:53Speaker 02

  You're smarter than I am with that.

• 1:50:54Bill Simmons?

  Playoff, so playoff leaders, that's such a fun one. I can't believe, so Goddard's the favorite of minus 125. Deami Brown is plus 280.

• 1:51:04Speaker 02

  Oh, it's 280 now?

• 1:51:05Bill Simmons?

  Uh. And then, uh, Worthy's 10 to one and keeps going and keeps going.

• 1:51:09Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, if you think that's 60 yard, the Worthy's coming, maybe that's the way to do it. But, um, all right. Uh, Braden Mann, Eagles punter, under 55 and a half longest punt. Only over 55 four times all regular season. Who knows if he'll even punt, right? He had two against Washington.

• 1:51:26Bill Simmons?

  That's a weird one. That's a long punt. Like you'd almost, that would almost have to bounce because the guy didn't pick it up.

• 1:51:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, I got that.

• 1:51:32Bill Simmons?

  That's one of those that.

• 1:51:33Speaker 02

  Questi Adolfo Mensah, the Vikings GM, sent me that one.

• 1:51:39Bill Simmons?

  That almost would make me nervous that that line is so high. Like Fandel knows something.

• 1:51:43Speaker 02

  Oh, really?

• 1:51:46Bill Simmons?

  It's like a giant punt.

• 1:51:47Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:51:50Speaker 02

  It is a lot. All right. Jersey number for the first touchdown, over 15 and a half. You lose the quarterbacks, but you get almost every defensive player. You get Barclay, you get Goddard, you get Kelsey, you get Hunt. You get Peyton Hender shot. I love it. Over 15 and a half, even odds for that.

• 1:52:07Bill Simmons?

  Even odds?

• 1:52:09Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, they have to have a number. They put it right at the Kelsey line there, 15.

• 1:52:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, but there's gotta be some other player that's under 15. Devonta Smith is under 15.

• 1:52:17Speaker 02

  Is on the both quarterbacks. Yeah.

• 1:52:19Bill Simmons?

  Devonta Smith.

• 1:52:21Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:52:21Bill Simmons?

  He's number six.

• 1:52:22Speaker 02

  A.J. Brown. Yeah.

• 1:52:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. And A.J. Brown's number 11.

• 1:52:26Speaker 02

  Yeah, I just like, I just like having Barkley and Kelsey on for almost even.

• 1:52:30Bill Simmons?

  And Noah Gray.

• 1:52:31Speaker 02

  Yeah, and my guy Noah Gray. All right, let's see, what else do we have here? They have next gen stats.

• 1:52:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:52:41Speaker 02

  Which are great. Did you see, I don't even know how they would do this because worthy to register fastest is plus 285. And he is the fastest, but so what if it's like an eight yard catch? Do they really just measure how fast? It wouldn't be able to get speed probably in that spot. So you're basically betting that he's going to have the longest play at plus 285.

• 1:53:02Bill Simmons?

  It seems like it would have to be a pass that's at least 25 yards. Right? Or a run that's at least 25 yards. So the guy can get the full head of steam.

• 1:53:12Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:53:12Bill Simmons?

  So that's why Barkley's the favorite for that one.

• 1:53:15Speaker 02

  So he's, he's supposed to have the longest play. It's that simple?

• 1:53:19Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I, I'm going to bet on Travis Kelsey. I, I just feel like he's looking fast lately. Just seems like, just seems like, uh, no, I would bet on worthy on that in the three to one odds and then hope that he gets.

• 1:53:32Speaker 02

  You could bet, I mean, it's crazy. Imagine Jimmy the Greek looking at this like you could have worthy at 18 and a half miles per hour. Like that's minus 172 to do that.

• 1:53:40Bill Simmons?

  Jimmy the Greek would probably end up saying something racist about the bet and make everyone uncomfortable.

• 1:53:47Speaker 02

  Um, position first touchdown. What would you say? Which, which would you go with?

• 1:53:54Bill Simmons?

  Probably running back.

• 1:53:56Speaker 02

  Running backs.

• 1:53:56Bill Simmons?

  Tight end would intrigue me though, because you have Kelsey, Gray and Goddard.

• 1:54:00Speaker 02

  Tight end's plus 420. It's not bad. That's what I was looking at there. Yeah.

• 1:54:05Bill Simmons?

  Tight end, plus 420 first touchdown. I like that.

• 1:54:09Speaker 02

  Right. I think it's still 420. Um, you know, we were talking about the F U moment for, for Reed against the Eagles. I know he's played him ready. Any quarterback to receive a touchdown, 70 to one, a lineman to score 18 to one. A quarterback, either quarterback catches a pass is 21 to, uh, to one. That's pretty good. I know these things don't happen a ton, but this is it. There's your last chance to use a trick play for the year, right?

• 1:54:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, I can't see Casey doing it with Mahomes. So it basically come down to Jalen Hurts. And then if you're Sirianni, do you want to rip off the Philly special? Or a play like that and then it doesn't work and like, oh, look at fucking Sirianni. Trying to do the Philly special.

• 1:54:50Speaker 02

  But that by the goal line, right? Yeah, but maybe, maybe just something stupid.

• 1:54:53Bill Simmons?

  Maybe the 21-1 just to catch a pass could be interesting.

• 1:54:57Speaker 02

  Right, right. Then you get the stupid stuff. I mean, I'm going purple Gatorade. It's gone down already. It was plus 240.

• 1:55:04Bill Simmons?

  Oh, there's been action.

• 1:55:05Speaker 02

  You could bet it on Fandel now, which is a friggin miracle. Purple's down to two to one. It was purple the last two years. The Chiefs won the last two years. It was purple. Why would they screw with a good thing? Purple has a chance to catch orange as the high. Orange is five, purple is four of all the Super Bowls.

• 1:55:27Speaker 02

  You know, we got the Kobe thing. It's been five years since Kobe's gone. You could go purple there if you're the Eagles. You know, I think I just also that's just talk about Kendrick Lamar has like an Easter thing going. Maybe it's in his rider that there has to be purple Gatorade. I don't know. Purple two to one seems like a good.

• 1:55:45Bill Simmons?

  That sounds, I could probably get inside info on that. There's some sort of purple something. There's too much action on purple. Maybe it's, maybe it's that Luca went to the Lakers. Now it's like a whole purple week.

• 1:55:56Speaker 02

  Oh yeah, that's the other thing. Yeah. That, this is gonna be the first.

• 1:55:59Bill Simmons?

  Hold on, I'm gonna throw up again.

• 1:56:01Speaker 02

  You don't like that?

• 1:56:02Bill Simmons?

  No, just Luca going to the Lakers. It makes me physically ill.

• 1:56:06Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:56:06Bill Simmons?

  They're like, oh my God, he's lost 25 pounds and LeBron has him using the versa climber. It's like, cool. Nobody's gonna win the title now for the next seven years.

• 1:56:14Speaker 02

  Listen, no one was more surprised than LeBron. He found out, what was he getting? Like a bacon wrapped hot dog in New York after the Knicks game? He had nothing to do with this at all.

• 1:56:23Bill Simmons?

  Nothing. He had no idea.

• 1:56:24Speaker 02

  That's good. No.

• 1:56:25Bill Simmons?

  Had no idea. Completely shocked.

• 1:56:28Speaker 02

  I'd like to see Big Dom get involved in this Gatorade scandal. Doesn't this seem like something like Big Dom switches it out? And some mobsters hit big on this prop? I think that's how this one's going down. John Batiste anthem. This one you might not be able to find, Fandel. 120 and a half seconds. He did a minute 35, which is 95 seconds at the NBA All-Star game.

• 1:56:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:56:51Speaker 02

  In 2017. Does he show off 30 seconds worth?

• 1:56:57Bill Simmons?

  How many? 120 seconds? That seems like a lot.

• 1:57:00Speaker 02

  It's two minutes. So it's been under two minutes in five of the last six years.

• 1:57:04Bill Simmons?

  I'll never forget when Louis K. gave us the inside info and risked his job so we could win that prop. Is Louis gonna be at this thing again?

• 1:57:13Speaker 02

  Did we win?

• 1:57:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, we won because he told us what was gonna happen. He was in the building.

• 1:57:18Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:57:18Bill Simmons?

  It was like the best inside info. I had the flip side of it though. Nick Khan, my friend Nick Khan, who runs WWE.

• 1:57:24Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:57:24Bill Simmons?

  We saw his son at UFC a few weeks ago and we were talking Royal Rumble. And his son Sonny, who's a great kid, and is like, Sonny, what's gonna happen to Rumble? And he goes, John Cena is gonna win the Royal Rumble and then he's gonna wrestle Cody Rhodes of WrestleMania.

• 1:57:40Speaker 02

  Oh, no.

• 1:57:41Bill Simmons?

  And we were like, holy shit. And then so John Cena was one of the last two and then he lost.

• 1:57:45Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:57:46Bill Simmons?

  So Sonny swerved us. He's learning from the best. Nick Khan.

• 1:57:48Speaker 02

  Wow. Wow. If you can't trust WWE inside info.

• 1:57:53Bill Simmons?

  Nine-year-old son of the guy who runs WWE, what can I, who can I trust?

• 1:57:57Speaker 02

  Come on, Nick. Nick's patting his son on the head right now.

• 1:58:00Bill Simmons?

  He's like, great job. Good job, son. Did it again.

• 1:58:05Speaker 02

  Well, I'm trying to figure out, oh, two or more diss tracks from Kendrick Lamar regarding Drake is minus 400.

• 1:58:12Bill Simmons?

  Wow. Well, he's definitely playing not like us.

• 1:58:14Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:58:15Bill Simmons?

  So then they would have to, maybe, does a medley count? What if it's a medley with like four songs in it?

• 1:58:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, they have to because everything's a medley now. They don't really stop down for new songs. And then there's dumb shit. There's Taylor Swift to announce pregnancy during or after Super Bowl 16 to one. Will he propose Travis after at eight to one? We might just have to do that so you don't throw up again.

• 1:58:38Bill Simmons?

  Can we talk about the proposal? Because why is that still lingering in such a real way? Makes you almost think it's gonna happen after the game. If the NFL was scripted, the Chiefs would win and then he would propose.

• 1:58:50Speaker 02

  Mm-hmm.

• 1:58:52Bill Simmons?

  So eight to one seems high.

• 1:58:54Speaker 02

  Right. And he didn't go to the Grammys, which is going on right now as we're, as.

• 1:58:58Bill Simmons?

  Also, that's a better bet than Chiefs money line because he's not gonna propose if they lose.

• 1:59:03Speaker 02

  That's true.

• 1:59:04Bill Simmons?

  He's only proposing if they win.

• 1:59:05Speaker 02

  Right, right, right.

• 1:59:06Bill Simmons?

  The Chiefs have lost by 10. Hold on. Let's go to the field where Travis Kelsey has a special announcement.

• 1:59:12Speaker 02

  Right.

• 1:59:12Bill Simmons?

  It has to be a win.

• 1:59:14Speaker 02

  Chiefs are gonna try harder if they know he has plans to propose. I don't know. It gets confusing.

• 1:59:19Bill Simmons?

  Probably not.

• 1:59:20Speaker 02

  Do you know Metro Boomin?

• 1:59:23Bill Simmons?

  What about him?

• 1:59:24Speaker 02

  He's the first celebrity on stage is plus 125. He's the favorite.

• 1:59:29Bill Simmons?

  Not Tommy Alter?

• 1:59:31Speaker 02

  Tommy's fourth.

• 1:59:33Bill Simmons?

  I had Tommy Alter. It's my number one.

• 1:59:37Speaker 02

  I'm trying to think. That might be it. Before we get to the, the good stuff there.

• 1:59:42Bill Simmons?

  What are the odds of me being in New Orleans? Is it, do those come up?

• 1:59:45Speaker 02

  What do you do? You have another NBA thing this week or something?

• 1:59:48Bill Simmons?

  I don't know. There might be more trades. I don't know.

• 1:59:51Speaker 02

  Oh, that's right. You got to stick around for these dumb trades.

• 1:59:53Bill Simmons?

  As you know, because you've seen it, New Orleans is terrible for me.

• 1:59:57Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:59:59Bill Simmons?

  It's, I, I can't handle it. I can't handle it. So that doesn't mean I'm not going to go, but I, I, I know that it's, it's a bad city for me.

• 2:00:08Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, the bad thing is like, you could not even be looking for trouble and get food poisoning from Roy Oysters. How do you say that?

• 2:00:18Speaker 02

  You know, Roy Oysters.

• 2:00:19Bill Simmons?

  Roy Oysters is a new standup comedian. Jeff Ross.

• 2:00:23Speaker 02

  He's going to be the first diss track. Yeah.

• 2:00:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. All right. So the quick setup for Gary Russell, this was a million years ago. We were doing a Super Bowl props, but right around when we invented Super Bowl props and the 2000s. And you did the Gary Russell bet. You had this big bet. You were all excited about it. I thought it was going to be like Ben Roethlisberger, 280 yards or whatever it was. Nope. This was Cardinal Steelers, Super Bowl, and your big thing was Gary Russell. What was it? He would?

• 2:00:51Speaker 02

  To, to not score a touchdown.

• 2:00:53Bill Simmons?

  To not score a touchdown. You had studied it, researched it.

• 2:00:57Speaker 02

  It was minus 150. He had like two touchdowns all year. I was like, why is this only minus 150?

• 2:01:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So he scores in the first quarter. And I think we were watching the Super Bowl together and we're just dying laughing. And then we get this email from somebody who said they were at a Super Bowl party. There's a male and a female. They both started laughing. They didn't know who each other were. They were like, do you guys listen? Do you listen to BS report? And they ended up getting married. So the Gary Russell pod has led to, this pick has led to a marriage.

• 2:01:25Speaker 02

  It's led to a marriage. It's led to almost bankruptcy for me. I am not very good at it. Now I pick an underachieving, no name player to have a reception or a carry. I hit with like

• 2:01:36Bill Simmons?

  The concept is it's the least sexy prop you can bet, but you're adamantly, Hank Kornasky was the best one, I think.

• 2:01:43Speaker 02

  That was good. I took your Patriots tight end once, that Michael Humenowali.

• 2:01:48Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah, that one hit. Yeah.

• 2:01:51Speaker 02

  But honestly, I don't think I've, I don't think I've hit since Fozzy Whittaker. I feel like the, and I feel like the Chiefs and Eagles have ruined the Gary Russell special because we kind of know all the third and fourth stringers, right? Like, I'm not going to go with Kenneth Gainwell or Jahan Dodson or, you know, you said Samaji P. Ryan for the Chiefs. Otherwise, we know the top six receivers. So I had to dig deep. And here's what I ended up with.

• 2:02:16Bill Simmons?

  I was never going to count you out. I knew you would find something. You weren't going to quit on Gary Russell.

• 2:02:21Speaker 02

  No, I can't quit on Gary Russell. I can't believe we haven't heard from that couple. It must be, must have split early on, if that's actually how they met.

• 2:02:29Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, maybe that's like a sad story now. Divorce, the guy's living with his parents.

• 2:02:36Speaker 02

  Please reach out to us if that's the case. Are you ready?

• 2:02:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:02:44Speaker 02

  Chiefs defensive lineman, Mike Dana, to record a sack at plus 235 is the Gary Russell special 2025. Hear me out. 27 year old, fifth round pick out of Michigan.

• 2:03:00Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:03:00Speaker 02

  He's on the postseason roster, had a good game against the Bills. He had a sack.

• 2:03:04Bill Simmons?

  His name was, his name was mentioned a couple of times.

• 2:03:06Speaker 02

  He had a sack and now it's going to be mentioned again and again and again. He had six and a half sacks last year. He had five and 22. He had two at Philly in 2021. He's one of those guys, Simmons, you talk about who was like really good in high school and then some scouts saw that and he was really good in college and then he ended up being a pro.

• 2:03:24Bill Simmons?

  Oh, my theory. Yeah, when a guy is really good, high school, college, and then the pros.

• 2:03:29Speaker 02

  Yeah, they get recognized. Yeah, Derrick Henry theory. Four tackles, a sack, two quarterback hits, a forced fumble against the Bills. Madden gives him 85 acceleration and 90 tackling ability. Mike Dana, go get it. My Gary Russell special dude of 2025, a sack plus 235.

• 2:03:47Bill Simmons?

  Grew up in Michigan, played at Central Michigan University and the University of Michigan.

• 2:03:52Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 2:03:52Bill Simmons?

  Uh, fifth round draft pick, six foot one and a half, 251.

• 2:03:57Speaker 02

  Oh, stud.

• 2:03:58Bill Simmons?

  He's won two Super Bowls, resigned with the Chiefs on a three-year, 24 million dollar deal in April 2024. He's not chopped liver, that Mike Dana.

• 2:04:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, no way.

• 2:04:09Bill Simmons?

  Mike Dana, great one.

• 2:04:11Speaker 02

  There we go.

• 2:04:12Bill Simmons?

  Um, all right, that's our Super Bowl prop stuff. So you're doing a whole bunch of stuff this week. You're going to New Orleans. We're going to be doing a bunch of content and, uh, and eventually they'll give you a pick. Do you want to do parent corner quick?

• 2:04:23Speaker 02

  I could do it. I have one. Yeah.

• 2:04:24Bill Simmons?

  All right, go.

• 2:04:25Speaker 02

  I, uh, well, first of all, I crashed puberty night the other night. Remember I told you?

• 2:04:30Bill Simmons?

  Oh, yeah, that happened.

• 2:04:31Speaker 02

  Harrison and his friends. Yeah, there's a, there's an instructor and we switch houses every Friday. Um, they gather and there's something going on. And this week it was at my house. So it was hard to avoid, even though my wife's like, just get lost, you know, you're not mature enough for this. But, so I was going to take my other son out to dinner, but I was like, let me check in on this. And they're showing a birth on TV. It's like on my television, like a birth. And the kids are like covering their faces and everything. And then they have, yeah, it's really nutty. And they have questions afterwards about pregnancy and, and Harrison asked, um, can the baby poop when it's inside the mother? And I just like snickered and I was like, I gotta get the hell out of here. This is just too stupid. But, um, that's part one. Part two, you talked about the Royal Rumble.

• 2:05:16Speaker 02

  I still love it. I still do like doing the pool as long as there's like four people involved. So I was like, all right, I'll put up $50. My godson was here, my two younger sons, it was me. And then we picked numbers for Archie, who's in college, right? So we got six people, uh, or, oh no, five people, six picks each. And it comes down to Jay Uso, who Harrison has, and John Cena, who Archie has. And Archie loved John Cena. It was his absolute favorite growing up. So it's kind of poetic. And like you said, it would make sense that John Cena would at least come down to these two. He would, he would, uh, win. He would emerge.

• 2:05:52Bill Simmons?

  They've been hinting at it for a month and a half. And this was the farewell tour. John Cena is going to be leading WrestleMania.

• 2:05:59Speaker 02

  And it doesn't happen for John Cena. Jay Uso ends up winning. Harrison wins the $50 and immediately makes a, um, a taunting video and puts it on the, uh, family text chain. He's like, your boy lost it for you, Archie. That's it for you. $50 right here. Sorry, pal. You know, all that stuff. And then Archie, a few hours later says, I didn't even get to, congratulations Harrison. I didn't even get to pick my numbers. Uh, I will be back better than ever next year. And so that we could go back to these days and he pans the camera and he shows his laptop of Harrison having a temper tantrum when he lost the Royal Rumble.

• 2:06:36Bill Simmons?

  Oh, he's taunting him for past behavior.

• 2:06:38Speaker 02

  So I was like, this is great. This is the best thing I've ever done.

• 2:06:41Bill Simmons?

  You've always wanted this.

• 2:06:42Speaker 02

  Created shit on the family text chain. Melissa's like, what's wrong with you people? So anyway, that's.

• 2:06:48Bill Simmons?

  Wow. She's definitely like, that's the south side of the family.

• 2:06:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's it.

• 2:06:53Bill Simmons?

  So my son was going away this weekend and I drove him. He was going on some skiing trip even though he barely skis and I drove into a friend's house. So he could drop his stuff off there because they were leaving from the friend's house after school.

• 2:07:09Bill Simmons?

  So we end up drive, so I drive Ben and his friend to school, which I haven't done in a while.

• 2:07:14Speaker 02

  Right.

• 2:07:14Bill Simmons?

  Kid gets in, he gets in, his friend gets in the back. Ben, who was sitting in the front with me, then goes and gets in the back. So now I have no passenger seat. And I don't know, what, what's your, what's your stance on this? Cause I'm like, what am I, the fucking Uber driver? He's like, well, I didn't want him to be alone in the back. I'm like, cool, there's no, this is crazy. There's nobody in the front seat. You guys aren't like eight, like you're 17, like you should be in the front. He's like, well, I want to sit back here. And, uh,

• 2:07:44Speaker 02

  I usually say something, I usually say something stupid, like in a butlered voice, like would, you can't go to the box. You know, and nobody ever gets it. And now that's it.

• 2:07:54Bill Simmons?

  So what are the passenger, what are the parent passenger rules when this happens? Like, cause I really feel like the kid should, your kid should sit in the passenger seat. And then if he wants to talk to his friend, turn around and talk to him. But don't like leave the passenger seat empty.

• 2:08:11Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:08:11Bill Simmons?

  We have three adults, three basically adults. They're both, they're both juniors in high school and I'm in the front and they're in the back. It's just fucking weird.

• 2:08:18Speaker 02

  Okay. So this is different, I think than from when we were growing up and everything else. Cause are they showing each other stuff on the phone for the whole ride?

• 2:08:26Bill Simmons?

  No, they just wanted to, they're both on their phone. I don't even know, maybe they're texting about me. Would a doofus sign them up?

• 2:08:31Speaker 02

  Well, they could do that anyway. They could still do that. You're watching the road. Yeah, it's weird, man.

• 2:08:36Bill Simmons?

  I don't like it. So I'm on the record with that. Another bank complaint now, cause we're roughly around the same size. He just comes into my closet and just takes, you know, oh, I need a, I need a T-shirt that I'm tired of my own T-shirts. I'll just grab one of dad's. And he just goes in and he picks, and then I never see a T-shirt again. And he also like picks out, he's ruffling through them. So it's like this pile on my shelf. So

• 2:09:02Speaker 02

  Marshals.

• 2:09:03Bill Simmons?

  The whole thing of like, I hope my kid grows and we're around the same size someday. It's actually when it actually happens, it sucks because he's just starts wearing my clothes. And then the third thing was, um, he, he wanted to get some ski stuff for the trip. And he's like, no, I'm going to do it myself. I'm going to do it myself. I'm like, all right, this is going to be a disaster.

• 2:09:24Speaker 02

  Right.

• 2:09:24Bill Simmons?

  So he said, no, no, I'm doing it myself. So he goes and he gets a couple of things and, uh, he thinks he's good. And then my wife came home and she's like, I thought we were going to get, no, he's like, I'm good, I'm good. So then he shows this bag of what he got. And he got like 40% of the stuff. Is there a bigger heat check than the boys in that 16 to 18 range who are like the I got this, I got this. And they just are fucking terrible at everything.

• 2:09:49Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:09:49Bill Simmons?

  Like they don't have it. Guess what? You don't have anything. You're driving around with a broken windshield wiper that I told you to fix three weeks ago. And then it starts raining and you put the windshield wipers on, you scratched the windshield. Like you don't have anything. It's like, you're not smarter than me. I am positive I'm smarter than you.

• 2:10:04Speaker 02

  Yeah. And skiing trip is right there at the top of that. You, I mean, you could forget a million things, right?

• 2:10:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 2:10:11Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's, that's bad to jump into first, one of the first things to jump into.

• 2:10:15Bill Simmons?

  But it's like you become this basketball coach where you're bringing somebody off the bench and the guy's just not listening to the plays. And then like dribbling into a triple team. You're basically Bronny James.

• 2:10:24Speaker 02

  Right.

• 2:10:24Bill Simmons?

  And you're just like, I fucking, you're just supposed to run the pivot action to the side. This heat check age that boys have, it just makes me want to punch Ben like twice a week.

• 2:10:36Speaker 02

  Mm hmm.

• 2:10:36Bill Simmons?

  And he'd probably take me in a fight, but.

• 2:10:40Speaker 02

  Can't he just reach into your closet and grab some ski clothes?

• 2:10:43Bill Simmons?

  Just fucking listen to me. I told you to get oil. Like I told you, I know you told me. Oh yeah, but you didn't get the oil.

• 2:10:50Speaker 02

  Right. I know.

• 2:10:52Bill Simmons?

  It's just, it doesn't get better? Like Archie's, Archie's now about to hit his twenties. Like, does it get better?

• 2:10:58Speaker 02

  No, it's about the same. I don't know. Archie started cooking for himself now, which surprised me. So that's, that, that's good.

• 2:11:03Bill Simmons?

  Does he clean up after?

• 2:11:05Speaker 02

  Not that great at that, but you know, it could be a little worse, but.

• 2:11:08Bill Simmons?

  Cause that was another thing with Ben. I'd like, our dog was sick for a week because he put the fucking cake frosting right next to the counter and then he blamed the dog. Well, he shouldn't have gone up there and gotten it. It's like he, Murph has an IQ of 20. Like you can't, you can't be like, what things he shouldn't have done. He's an idiot.

• 2:11:28Speaker 02

  But is this a boy thing? I mean, you, you have wannabe, so I don't know if.

• 2:11:32Bill Simmons?

  I really think it's a boy thing.

• 2:11:33Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:11:34Bill Simmons?

  I don't, I just think they feel like they're always right and they're also still stupid because they're not adults yet. And that front part of their brain hasn't fully formed. So it's a rare combination of irrational confidence and lack of experience with everything.

• 2:11:48Speaker 02

  And I don't need help. It's a what

• 2:11:49Bill Simmons?

  I don't need help.

• 2:11:50Speaker 02

  I was like never asking for directions.

• 2:11:53Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, stop suffocating me.

• 2:11:54Speaker 02

  Mature thing. Yeah.

• 2:11:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Just leave me alone. And then they're batting 28% decisions.

• 2:12:03Speaker 02

  Sitting in the backseat.

• 2:12:05Bill Simmons?

  And then sitting in the backseat as I'm driving. So I feel

• 2:12:07Speaker 02

  My son did a weird thing real quick about that, like not sitting. Not only did he not sit in the front seat, but I had to take a bunch of wrestlers to a tournament. He let like one of the wrestlers sit in the front seat with me like.

• 2:12:18Bill Simmons?

  Instead of him?

• 2:12:19Speaker 02

  Instead of him. I was like, all right, I guess I'll talk to this kid for an hour.

• 2:12:22Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 2:12:23Speaker 02

  Front.

• 2:12:23Bill Simmons?

  Maybe they just don't like us. That might be it.

• 2:12:25Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah, that might be it too. Can they just say that?

• 2:12:28Bill Simmons?

  Could us a bit. Yeah. All right, cuz. Good luck in New Orleans.

• 2:12:32Speaker 02

  There it is. We missed you. Come down, man.

• 2:12:35Bill Simmons?

  Who knows? Don't rule me out. I can't be ruled out.

• 2:12:39Bill Simmons?

  Good luck with the betting and all the picking this week and I will, I will see you on Sunday night after the Super Bowl.

• 2:12:44Speaker 02

  Yes. Good job by you, buddy.

• 2:12:46Bill Simmons?

  Good job by you.

• 2:12:50Bill Simmons?

  All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Goldsberry and Sal. Thanks to Kyle and Sarudy and Gao. As always, you can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. We have new rewatchables coming for you as well. On Monday night, we did Before Sunrise last week. Doing Before Sunset on Monday night. That's going up. Brought in a fourth person with me and Sean and Chris Ryan to talk about one of my favorite movies of the 2000s. You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. I'm going to see you definitely for another podcast Tuesday or Wednesday. Not sure which day, so stay tuned. See you during the week.

• 2:13:56Bill Simmons?

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