ROLLUP: Bitcoin's ATH Run | AI Memecoin Meta | Blobs Price Discovery | Microsoft Buying Bitcoin?

It's The Bankless Friday Weekly Rollup! In this episode, we dive into the rise of AI agents on blockchain, a surge in Bitcoin inflows ahead of a Trump-favored election, Ethereum “blobs” entering price discovery, and speculation around Microsoft potentially buying Bitcoin. ------ 📣 LEGION | MERIT BASED ICOs https://bankless.cc/Legion ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🐙KRAKEN | MOST-TRUSTED CRYPTO EXCHANGE https://k.xyz/bankless-pod-q2 ⁠ 🦄UNISWAP | BROWSER EXTENSION https://bankless.cc/uniswap 🪄 MAGIC EDEN | HOME OF WEB3 https://bankless.cc/MagicEden 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR LAYER 2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🤖 0G | MAKING THE IMPOSSIBLE, INEVITABLE https://bankless.cc/0G ------ ✨ Mint the episode on Zora ✨ https://zora.co/collect/zora:0x0c294913a7596b427add7dcbd6d7bbfc7338d53f/87?referrer=0x077Fe9e96Aa9b20Bd36F1C6290f54F8717C5674E ------ TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES 00:00:00 Start 00:04:03 Markets https://pro.kraken.com/app/trade/btc-usd https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1850831666119623006 https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1850884568553013459 https://x.com/jords/status/1850983097808175152?s=46&t=2ZINVXJQKx6xO_6Wiiu_2g https://x.com/jords/status/1850983097808175152?s=46&t=2ZINVXJQKx6xO_6Wiiu_2g https://www.coingecko.com/en/global-charts 00:13:52 L2 Update https://x.com/peterschroederr/status/1850556872727945285 https://x.com/dimahledba/status/1851535737482604681?s=46 https://x.com/dimahledba/status/1851183188288127237?s=46 https://x.com/dylankugler/status/1850997725111669044 https://x.com/sreeramkannan/status/1851616723197428109 00:18:23 Blobspace https://x.com/timjrobinson/status/1851222351524036855 https://x.com/0xbreadguy/status/1851244266137510063?s=46&t=2ZINVXJQKx6xO_6Wiiu_2g https://x.com/0xbreadguy/status/1851244266137510063?s=46&t=2ZINVXJQKx6xO_6Wiiu_2g 00:28:27 Election Updates https://polymarket.com/elections https://newsroom.aboutrobinhood.com/introducing-the-presidential-election-market/ https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1850868412806746217 00:35:02 AI Agents https://x.com/truth_terminal https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/goatseus-maximus https://app.virtuals.io/virtuals/68 https://terminal.virtuals.io/ https://x.com/wojtekwtf/status/1850835219160416486 https://warpcast.com/aethernet https://x.com/tee_hee_he https://x.com/MurrLincoln/status/1850226148594082120 00:50:16 US prosecutors are investigating Tether https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/federal-investigators-probe-cryptocurrency-firm-tether-a13804e5 https://x.com/paoloardoino/status/1849876338573799912 00:55:14 OP Foundation Gave 425M OP To Ink https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/10/29/optimism-foundation-agreed-to-give-kraken-425m-of-op-tokens-in-layer-2-deal/ https://x.com/Fwiz/status/1851280684473897466 00:57:35 RocketPool Upgrade https://x.com/drjasper_eth/status/1849206972702228482 00:59:37 Microsoft Buying Bitcoin? https://x.com/jameslavish/status/1849598011082670387 https://x.com/saylor/status/1849790766945587241 01:01:17 SEC NFT Trolling https://x.com/brianlfrye/status/1851118844766535860 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96Cyp-nsL6k 1:04:44 Meme Of The Week https://x.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1850667711355113621 ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:03Ryan Sean Adams?

  Bankless Station is the last week of October. Okay, this is the Halloween edition of Bankless. Did you, did you wear a costume this week, David?

• 0:13David Hoffman?

  Uh, we have done costumes every other year. We are not doing costumes this year.

• 0:16Ryan Sean Adams?

  Oh, wait, you're not in your costume? I'm in my costume.

• 0:19David Hoffman?

  Are you Ryan Tron Adams?

• 0:20Ryan Sean Adams?

  No, I'm an ETH bag holder. You can tell by the-

• 0:24David Hoffman?

  Well, we're wearing the same thing. One of us is gonna have to change.

• 0:28Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, I guess. Well, you know, we can both be ETH bag holders. We live in different cities, so, you know, no one will, uh, be worried about that. Lot of things to talk about, but one of the things we're gonna talk about is something a little bit spooky, maybe, David? Uh, do you like that? AI agents.

• 0:42David Hoffman?

  A little spooky.

• 0:42Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, they're, they're on-chain and they're off-leash. We once had bots, now they've like evolved into these things called agents. And I think both you and I earlier this week, we're trying to figure out whether this is just like a new meme coin game that we could just like dismiss as noise, or whether it was a big freaking deal. So we'll talk about what's going on in crypto with AI agents this week.

• 1:03David Hoffman?

  Yeah, Base, Ethereum, Solana, they all have their AI agent platforms active in their block space. So I think this is gonna be a theme across chains.

• 1:13David Hoffman?

  Meanwhile, Bitcoin inflows are flowing. Someone has opened up the floodgates. All of this ahead of the US election, which is increasingly pointed towards a Trump victory, obviously good for crypto, and the markets are currently reflecting that.

• 1:25Ryan Sean Adams?

  By the way, I'm so happy that this is the last roll-up, um, where we're talking about the election, hopefully. Hopefully, we'll know by the next roll-up.

• 1:32David Hoffman?

  Well, then the election's gonna happen, and then in the next roll-up, we're gonna talk about that.

• 1:34Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, we're gonna talk about it, but we want to like talk about it, like who's gonna win? It feels like the same thing every week. Also, the blobs continue blobbing. The big question is, what happens if Ethereum blobs go into price discovery mode? Can this fix ETH this cycle, David?

• 1:47David Hoffman?

  Can we get the burn back? Meanwhile, there is a governance vote in Microsoft, shareholder vote, about whether or not Microsoft wants to buy Bitcoin and follow MicroStrategy's footsteps and put Bitcoin on the balance sheet. So we're gonna talk to you guys about the vote. And also, more tether FUD. This time, the FUD is making it into the weekly roll-up. We usually ignore the tether FUD. This FUD, we're gonna talk about. Maybe it's, you know, maybe it's the same as all the other FUD. Who knows? We're going to get to all of this and more, but first a message from our friends and sponsors over at Legion. We once did a whole entire episode, Ryan, about how this cycle is cooked. Remember, remember that episode? And the whole idea there was that, man, these points, these retroactive airdrops, these Sybil attacked airdrops are just completely broken.

• 2:30David Hoffman?

  Honest users who are just enjoying their time using their favorite protocol are not getting rewarded with any of the tokens because bots are just, you know, front running them. Legion is trying to make public token sales possible again, thanks to MICA compliant merit-based ICOs.

• 2:46Ryan Sean Adams?

  Oh.

• 2:47David Hoffman?

  We have, we have asked for the ICO movement to come back. It's a, I think people now, the ICO era of crypto 2017 was rife with frauds. But the ICO as a mechanism, I think is wholeheartedly like understood to be like-

• 3:01Ryan Sean Adams?

  It can be done well.

• 3:01David Hoffman?

  It can be done well. It is a good mechanism. It allows people to, you know, invest in early-stage projects. And that is what Legion is trying to do. It's trying to connect value-add network participants, AKA qualified investors, investors who projects want on their cap tables, with the most promising crypto projects, as in not, not the frauds, not the scams. They have a couple of different tools that they use to do this, like an exploitation-resistant reputation system, where it scores users based on developer activity, on-chain history, social clout, unique achievements. So it's kind of like your, your resume as an investor, but as an individual, which is kind of cool. So if any of this interests you, if you are either a project seeking capital from a more distributed pool of investors,

• 3:41David Hoffman?

  or if you are a potential investor who wants to invest in early-stage startups, check them out, bankless.cc/legion.

• 3:47Ryan Sean Adams?

  Got to mention, of course, this is not available to US users and-

• 3:51David Hoffman?

  God, I should have seen that coming.

• 3:52Ryan Sean Adams?

  Everyone knows who to thank for, for that, but MICA compliance, which is like a big step. So go check that out. I'm actually pretty bullish on this being a new mechanism moving forward. All right, David, speaking of bullish, Bitcoin, tell us about the prices, because I've heard that it's creeping towards all-time high. Actually, you know what? We should preface this by saying, we are recording the weekly roll-up. This is something we don't usually do. We are recording the weekly roll-up a day early. So we're actually recording on Wednesday, October 30th. And this is because, you know, like I want to, you know, Halloween off. I got some stuff to do that day. So this could be completely out of date.

• 4:26David Hoffman?

  You got to cost him for that?

• 4:27Ryan Sean Adams?

  The prices could be completely out of date by the time you guys get it on Friday morning, November 1st.

• 4:32David Hoffman?

  But usually prices are 12 hours stale. They are coming into you guys 36 hours stale. So the fact that we are doing them at all is-

• 4:39Ryan Sean Adams?

  Okay, so we don't know, for the listeners listening to this, whether we hit Bitcoin all-time highs or not. At the time of recording, we're real close, though. What's it looking like?

• 4:48David Hoffman?

  According to CoinGecko, the all-time high of Bitcoin is $73,740. This week, we hit $73,570. So, on the Kraken chart. So, the Kraken chart got $200 away from Bitcoin all-time high. That is how close we are. We have since fallen. We are currently at $71,700, but Bitcoin is up 9% on the week. So, it was a really good week for Bitcoin. We are flirting with all-time highs. Bitcoin is less than $1,000 away from all-time highs, which is pretty damn cool. Ether also had a good week. Started the week $2,475, up 7.8%

• 5:28David Hoffman?

  to where it is now at $2,670. Got over $2,700, fell back down a little bit. And it is also just a few thousand dollars away from all-time highs, just the same as Bitcoin. Both are just a few thousand dollars away from all-time highs. So, close.

• 5:45Ryan Sean Adams?

  Wow, that would be funny if it didn't hurt so bad. But I guess, you know, Eve Bagholder costume on the week for Halloween. We should just finish the pain and talk about the Bitcoin ratio here. What's that looking like on the week?

• 5:57David Hoffman?

  .0372, so it has continued to go down.

• 6:02Ryan Sean Adams?

  The interesting thing, if we want to compare Bitcoin to Ether, is on March 12th, this was sort of a last almost all-time high moment. Maybe this was an all-time high for March. I don't recall. Bitcoin was $69,810. At that time, Ether, the asset, was $3,879. Okay, so like, ratio was a lot higher. Bitcoin was maintaining its pace, or Ether was maintaining its pace with Bitcoin, I should say. Today, the delta is like, we're around the same amount, around $70,000, and Ether is only $2,500 or so. So, a big difference. Why is this? It's just like Bitcoin ETF adoption has been really strong.

• 6:43David Hoffman?

  Really strong, yeah. The Bitcoin brand is like, really penetrating. And also...

• 6:49David Hoffman?

  Like, look at the polymarket odds. Donald Trump.

• 6:52Ryan Sean Adams?

  The Trump bump.

• 6:52David Hoffman?

  The Trump bump.

• 6:53Ryan Sean Adams?

  Part of it.

• 6:53David Hoffman?

  Trump bump's very large, yeah. Let's go look at the Bitcoin ETF flows. Go back, let's go back to the 23rd of October. $192 million in on the 23rd. On the 24th, $188 million in. On the 25th, 402. On the 28th, 480. And yesterday, the 29th, $870 million net inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs. Almost a billion dollars in a single day. We are, so we are at all-time highs in AUM across the Bitcoin ETFs. And all of this is just like, the two weeks leading up to the election, kind of tracking the Trump odds on polymarket and all the other prediction markets.

• 7:34David Hoffman?

  As Trump is going up in likelihood, Bitcoin ETF flows are going up. Bitcoin price is going up. So the fact that Bitcoin has kind of turned into a Trump derivatives market, Trump election derivatives market is working in Bitcoin's favor.

• 7:51Ryan Sean Adams?

  So this chart that we have on screen is really interesting. So this is indicating that the ETF is actually leading the spot market Bitcoin price. So here's a chart of ETF holdings are breaking up before Bitcoin. And you could see this in orange. This is US Bitcoin spot ETF balances. And it just shoots up. And then kind of the Bitcoin price is following. So maybe there's some Trump bump here. But maybe there's also, it's just the ETFs have been incredibly successful products. And this is some institutional demand. I know when we were talking to the BlackRock folks, they said a lot of the demand for Bitcoin ETFs is just like, basically, already crypto bullish people who are just sort of, you know, moving their 401Ks. They already own Bitcoin or they're already in crypto. And they're just like moving some of their retirement accounts

• 8:36Ryan Sean Adams?

  from the Grayscale Trust into these products. Or just like, you know, from other stock indices or all other mutual funds into this. But I'm not sure. I think this could be like a new source of demand here, potentially, going into the election. I mean, the flows are just incredible here.

• 8:54David Hoffman?

  Yeah, that all of those statements have been about the past. Historically, all of the inflows to date have been this way. The hope is that just because all of the crypto natives are putting Bitcoin in their retirement accounts. The hope is that we're just doing that first, ahead of all the big money that we thought was coming in. Turns out, all that big money has not come in yet, which is, in my interpretation, bullish, because they haven't come in yet.

• 9:17Ryan Sean Adams?

  Mine too.

• 9:17David Hoffman?

  That's they can still come in.

• 9:19Ryan Sean Adams?

  Well, I mean, look at this.

• 9:20David Hoffman?

  Still more money out there.

• 9:20Ryan Sean Adams?

  So you know how big college endowments are. University endowments are just like silly large in the US. This they're starting to come into it. There's just a trickle, but this is Emory University reported $16 million worth of Bitcoin. The first endowment to report a Bitcoin ETF position. This is from Eric Balchunas. So endowments kind of trickling in. It's only like a small fraction. It's like less than far, far less than a percent of the total AUM.

• 9:47David Hoffman?

  But it's something.

• 9:48Ryan Sean Adams?

  To see that start to trickle in is notable, and that is net new demand. You have to say that. I mean, certainly, these endowments are not crypto natives.

• 9:58David Hoffman?

  It's interesting that they own 2.7 million shares of GBTC, as in great scale BTC, which to me lends to the idea that they've actually been holding this for a while. Because why would you buy GBTC now? Why are you buying the one that has a 2.5% fee when all the other ones have like 8.2% fee? So to me, Emory actually probably has been holding GBTC for a long time.

• 10:20Ryan Sean Adams?

  Well, now they're reporting it. So this is a new report. They're certainly reporting it, maybe. I guess it's not saying how long they've actually held it for.

• 10:27David Hoffman?

  Right, because they're learning that they're holding it.

• 10:29Ryan Sean Adams?

  This is all reflected in the Bitcoin dominance chart. Look at this, David. We are at 60% Bitcoin dominance. For people who aren't familiar with that metric, what is Bitcoin dominance? So it's basically like Bitcoin is a portion of the the total crypto market cap. And it's 60% of the value of all of crypto is Bitcoin right now?

• 10:46David Hoffman?

  Yeah, yeah. So the value, yeah, the value of all crypto is 60% contained by Bitcoin. It has Bitcoin dominance has historically been downtrending over the years, but it goes in cycles. It goes up, it goes down, tends to go down, but re-reaching 60% where it once was is definitely a pretty big milestone.

• 11:05Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, it tends to go up in the early innings of a bull market and then go down in kind of the second part of a bull market. So what's the total crypto market cap on the week?

• 11:17David Hoffman?

  Coming in at $2.5 trillion, hitting that $2.5 trillion mark. We haven't been here in a really long time. This is what happens when Bitcoin goes up 3% or 4% or 5%. Like, that trillion dollar number moves quite a lot. I don't, it doesn't really matter if Doge or Shib or any meme coins go up 3,000%. It doesn't matter, but when Bitcoins goes up 5%, then you really see that reflected in the total crypto market cap. So, next stop, $3 trillion. You think we can get $3 trillion by the end of the year?

• 11:48Ryan Sean Adams?

  Look, depending on the election event, like, results, 100%, I think so.

• 11:52David Hoffman?

  Yeah, I think you could get there before December.

• 11:54Ryan Sean Adams?

  I think 3 trillion is bearish for all of crypto.

• 11:58David Hoffman?

  For the end of the year, you mean?

• 11:59Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, for the end of the year even. Yeah, it's just not much.

• 12:01David Hoffman?

  Okay, all right, all right, all right. 3.5 trillion.

• 12:04Ryan Sean Adams?

  Do I think, yeah? Yeah, I think that's possible, too.

• 12:06David Hoffman?

  3.5 trillion by the end of the year?

• 12:07Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, I think that's totally possible.

• 12:08David Hoffman?

  Add on the trillion dollars?

• 12:10Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah. Well, you're talking-

• 12:11David Hoffman?

  If Trump gets elected.

• 12:12Ryan Sean Adams?

  Right, sure, sure. I mean, with, if Trump gets election, like, elected, I just don't even know what the ceiling is. Like, I think, I mean, what, it does a lot. We'll wait for that next week. We'll wait to talk about that, all the implications of that once we know.

• 12:26David Hoffman?

  For the record, the all-time high of the total crypto market cap of crypto is just over 3 trillion. So we are 0.5 trillion dollars away from the all-time highs for the industry.

• 12:37Ryan Sean Adams?

  What are some movers on the week, David? Some meme coins at the, at the top here that are contributing to that 2.5 trillion dollars? What are we looking at here?

• 12:44David Hoffman?

  Three big movers of the week. SPX, which broke into the top 100. It fell out of it at the time of recording, but it was up 24%. Popcat up 24%, and then Doge, which actually does have a meaningful market cap. I do have to take back what I said earlier. The, the market cap of Doge is $25 billion, and Doge is up 20% of the week, on the week. I think people are using Doge, actually, as Trump exposure, because Elon Musk, who's very pro-Trump and is very, like, much aligning himself with the Trump brand, keeps on tweeting about the Department of Government Efficiency.

• 13:18David Hoffman?

  Because he wants to make the government more efficient and those initials are Doge.

• 13:21Ryan Sean Adams?

  Right.

• 13:22David Hoffman?

  And so if the idea here is if Trump gets elected, then Elon has more exposure and Elon keeps tweeting about this D O G E meme. And so as a result, Doge is up 20%.

• 13:34Ryan Sean Adams?

  So this is another election exposure play.

• 13:36David Hoffman?

  Election exposure, yeah.

• 13:37Ryan Sean Adams?

  In addition to being a meme coin play, of course, Dogecoin is a blue chip meme coin at this point.

• 13:42David Hoffman?

  Yes.

• 13:42Ryan Sean Adams?

  And these other ones you mentioned, they're newcomers.

• 13:44David Hoffman?

  First blue chip meme coin.

• 13:45Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah. Wow. Blue chip meme coins now. We're that old in crypto. We have these blue chips. The must invest meme coins. Let's talk about layer twos and this layer two update brought to you by our friends over at Mantle, who are just a fantastic layer two that you gotta go check out. There are a few notable things on the week. What is this, David? For the first time ever, Base led all chains for total stablecoin transfer volume in a single day. Folks who might be hearing that might not think that's significant. Let me tell you, that's pretty significant.

• 14:13David Hoffman?

  Pretty significant.

• 14:13Ryan Sean Adams?

  Because Tron has been the big stablecoin chain network for a very long time, for the past like, you know, three, four, five years, and they have had a commanding presence. And for an Ethereum layer two to start to exceed that in transfer volume is pretty bullish, I think, for the layer two ecosystem.

• 14:33David Hoffman?

  Yeah, totaling $18 billion in stablecoin transaction volume over that 24 hour period, accounting for actually just 30% of all stablecoin transfer volumes. And so even though it was a number one chain, only accounted for 30%. Solana coming in at second at 25%, Ethereum layer one at 20%, followed by Tron at 16%. Unfortunately, the screenshot that we have is like kind of stacked right over the data, so we can't see the recent era. But it is nice to have Base dethrone Tron. But then also you've got a Solana that number two at 25%. I really want to see that recent data.

• 15:09Ryan Sean Adams?

  So Solana transfer stuff has been pretty impressive. Of course, all of the base stablecoin volume is in USDC.

• 15:14David Hoffman?

  Like 99%.

• 15:16Ryan Sean Adams?

  99.9%.

• 15:17David Hoffman?

  Yeah. Also, in the layer two landscape, Starknet is breaking some records, multiple records in the transaction per second category. So the fastest layer two transactions that We've ever seen on Ethereum. Starknet sustained 127 transactions per second for 24 hours with a peak TPS of 857 transactions per second. Where did all of this transaction activity come from, you ask? I'm so glad you asked. Came from this on-chain game called Flippy Flop, which actually looks pretty cool. A bunch of humans compete against bots over kind of this like tile space. And it's a non-chain game. And so a lot of the actions on this game are made on-chain. So like if you move left,

• 15:59David Hoffman?

  or if you do something, you take an action that turns into a transaction. This is coming from the world of on-chain games, fully autonomous worlds. There's this whole category out there. We did an episode with the Lattice team a while ago about this concept. You really need a ton of scale in order to make this happen. Starknet, I think, is actually the first chain that really has been able to pioneer this because they're the first chain to be able to actually host this kind of activity. But in addition to the sheer amount of activity going on on Starknet, a bunch of components just really had to come together to make this happen because you go on to the flippyflop.gg, I think, website in order to play this game. And you know, you're gonna have to, it's a crypto game. You need a wallet. You need, you need activity, right? You need to do all these things. Well, there's account abstraction to abstract away a wallet.

• 16:45David Hoffman?

  There's a Paymaster integration to extract away gas fees. There's this thing called Cartridge Controller, which is kind of like gamertag infra for Starknet games. Session keys, which is where actions can turn into on-chain transactions without a wallet popping up. So if you're doing like 857 transactions per second, like there's not pop-ups happening. And you're like, approve, approve, approve. Like, no, you're just making movements.

• 17:08Ryan Sean Adams?

  It's the way a game should be, right? Just the way a game should be.

• 17:11David Hoffman?

  And then lastly, pass keys for eliminating C phrases and easy onboarding. So you're seeing a lot of this, like very modern tech, being finally aggregated together into a unique experience, which allows users to play this fun game and break records in the layer two transactions per second space.

• 17:27Ryan Sean Adams?

  David, I think we're gonna be breaking records a lot in the remaining 2024 as far as L2 TPS, right? It's like more and more high-throughput L2s are coming online. What's notable about this? It's not of lithium, so all of the data availability is actually stored on Ethereum as well. So it is a true Ethereum rollup. And Sriram from Eigenlayer offers his congratulations to StarkNet and the founders of StarkNet. And he said, "This is a rollup using ETHDA. How is it possible? This rollup only post state diffs and games with high update rate are exceptionally suited for extreme compression." I don't fully know what all of that means, but...

• 18:05David Hoffman?

  It means a bunch of transactions, a bunch of actions are happening, and a lot of them are happening all at once because that's what the TPS is. And then every once in a while, the Starks compress and then they post a state root, which is basically how rollup works.

• 18:15Ryan Sean Adams?

  Onchain games are very on the frontier, I would say, at this point in time. StarkNet certainly doing that very well. So the question is, with all of these L2s consuming all of this Ethereum block space, and I really should say blob space, because that's kind of the fastlane that all of these L2s are using for data availability. The question is, when are we going to run out? When are we going to hit the thresholds and supply limits? And it looks like we're getting kind of close, David. Actually, Tim Robinson put together just a fantastic analytics tool that kind of like projects what this could look like in the future. Because right now, this has been part of the question. L2s are not paying very much for blob space. Why? It's because you only pay for Ethereum blob space

• 18:57Ryan Sean Adams?

  when the threshold supply is reached, when there's contention, when everyone wants it, basically.

• 19:02David Hoffman?

  When there's less supply than there is demand.

• 19:04Ryan Sean Adams?

  Exactly.

• 19:05David Hoffman?

  Right now, there is more supply than demand, but just barely.

• 19:08Ryan Sean Adams?

  Just barely. And we've actually crossed the threshold mildly.

• 19:12David Hoffman?

  Recently, yeah, last week.

• 19:13Ryan Sean Adams?

  I don't know, three different times, four different times now, just to spike up, you know, and then it goes back down.

• 19:17David Hoffman?

  The last spike up, which was last week, was the largest spike.

• 19:20Ryan Sean Adams?

  Well, did you get a chance to take a look at some of the analytics that Tim put together on this of what this could look like? Both in, like, you can adjust your assumptions as you want. One assumption that Tim goes is the far future, where he looks at Ethereum's destination point once it adds...

• 19:40Ryan Sean Adams?

  Once it adds pure DAS and once we get to a place where Ethereum can support 10,000 transactions per second, so we've not only added pure DAS in a future Hard Fork, but we've also kind of like updated the amount of blobs per block to 16 megabytes. So that is probably a medium to longer term future. I don't know if this is like three years out, but basically if Ethereum is operating at 10,000 transactions per second, it would actually burn 6.5% a year. L2 transactions in that scenario would cost 0.06 cents per transaction, but you would be burning 6.5% ETH supply a year at the current ETH price. Really interesting how you can kind of like model this out,

• 20:25Ryan Sean Adams?

  but it's basically the idea that you can have cheap transactions. If you have a lot of them, it would still burn a whole bunch of ETH, which begs the question of like, you know, this whole ultrasound money meme has kind of died down because ETH hasn't been deflationary for the past, you know, six months or so or like longer. And, you know, everyone's saying, well, it's not deflationary anymore. So that just like decreases the value proposition of ETH or the asset. And that's why it's trading so poorly this cycle. Well, what happens if it starts to produce a whole bunch of cash flow? Because blob space thresholds are exceeded. Does the market then reverse? Is that like life back into ETH? What's your take on all of these things?

• 21:04David Hoffman?

  Can we actually just open up the simulator? Because I think it's really cool. So let's put in some assumptions here. Let's put in a number of rollups. Call it 20, 20 large dominant rollups. I think there's going to be many more, but like in the fat tail, it's called 20 fat tail rollups.

• 21:18Ryan Sean Adams?

  Okay.

• 21:18David Hoffman?

  Transactions per second on the rollups. Starknet was just sustaining 127 for a day. Let's put in 100 transactions per second.

• 21:27Ryan Sean Adams?

  Okay.

• 21:27David Hoffman?

  And then target blobs per block. Right now we are at three, but we're going to estimate in the future. So let's go to six, let's go to six. We'll double that. We'll get to six sometime next year. And then max blobs per block 12. If you put those numbers in, these are my assumptions.

• 21:44Ryan Sean Adams?

  With the ETH price of 3K now?

• 21:45David Hoffman?

  With the ETH price of 3K, yeah, which is like, we'll get there, we'll get there soon enough. Hopefully.

• 21:53David Hoffman?

  You can also dial in the price sensitivity. So percentages of users willing to pay a .0001 cent transaction, 100% is like kind of the default. You have

• 22:03Ryan Sean Adams?

  That's advanced mode. Yeah.

• 22:04David Hoffman?

  That's advanced mode. Yeah. So like, you know, there are users, maybe 80% of users are willing to pay a penny. Maybe only 10% of users are willing to pay $10.

• 22:12Ryan Sean Adams?

  Let's ignore that, though. Let's keep it simple.

• 22:13David Hoffman?

  Ignoring all of that. But these are the dials that you can adjust.

• 22:16Ryan Sean Adams?

  Sure.

• 22:16David Hoffman?

  So under this, under these parameters, 20 rollups, 100 transactions per second per rollup, six blobs per block with a max blob target, a max blob limit of 12, $3,000 ETH. We are burning 15,000 Ether per day. $45 million a day, which is way more than issuance. And these numbers are real close, real close. Now, this begs the question. With these costs, so like these, this $45 million a day, these are coming out of the Layer 2 Treasuries, out of the Layer 2 balance sheets. So they're not going to be like super stoked to pay all of that revenue. So you would imagine some would swap out of Ethereum DA.

• 22:57Ryan Sean Adams?

  Well, because also Spikes, there, the average transaction fee in this scenario, the scenario you just gave would be a dollar and 2 cents per transaction fee, which is getting expensive for a lot of the transactions Layer 2s actually want to host. Yes?

• 23:09David Hoffman?

  Which, yes, which is why we probably need to have a higher target blob per block. So with six, a target of six, we're at $1.4 per transaction. But if we went up to 12, that would bring it down to 50 cents.

• 23:24Ryan Sean Adams?

  But if you do that, you're just going to create, induce more demand and then it's going to go back up.

• 23:27David Hoffman?

  Get more Layer 2. Yeah. So there's this, there's this balance. There's this harmony of how many more Layer 2s can we put on?

• 23:33Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah.

• 23:33David Hoffman?

  How many more blobs can we supply? How many transactions can we bring down? But then also you get it back in volume across all of these networks. And some of these Layer 2s are going to be very sticky. There are going to be some Layer 2s which are very price insensitive. And then there are going to be some Layer 2s that are very price sensitive. And whether they use Ethereum native DA, they use Eigen DA, they use Celestia, it's going to be A function of how price sensitive they are. But at the end of the day, there is going to be some basal limit of DA ETH burn once we start burning blobs.

• 24:02Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, and so I think this is going to be a persistent effect. We're going to have a pendulum swinging from two sorts of seasons or cycles for Ether, the asset. One is the burn cycle, when you are, you don't have enough supply for all of the demand of block space and blob space, right? And so what will happen in those cases is you will go over the threshold and ETH will be burnt. We were in that season for like a lot of 2023 and the beginning part, the first couple of months of 2024, when ETH was still deflationary. And then what did we get? In March, we got an expansion of block space with EIP 4844. There's going to be future expansions of block space, blob space as well. In the future, PeerDAS will be another one. And then what do we do?

• 24:47Ryan Sean Adams?

  We switch over to an expand side of the pendulum, where now we have more blob space than supply than we do demand. So what we're going to do is we're going to oscillate back and forth. And as we're oscillating from burn to expand, from burn to expand, Twitter and like narrative and like markets are going to be like, oh my God, it's the end of the world for Ether. It's not burning anymore.

• 25:10David Hoffman?

  It's always bad. It's always bad.

• 25:12Ryan Sean Adams?

  And it's because, it's because narrative and like these types of markets and crypto Twitter in particular has the memory of a goldfish and they don't.

• 25:20David Hoffman?

  So is what you're saying that like, we're going to go through this like kind of supply contraction? But one is first, when there is a supply growth of the Ethereum network, the Ethereum side grows.

• 25:31Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah.

• 25:31David Hoffman?

  At the loss of ETH burn.

• 25:33Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yes.

• 25:33David Hoffman?

  And then we're going to have this like, then we're going to induce this demand. We're going to have this bull market.

• 25:38Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yep.

• 25:39David Hoffman?

  Then like we're going to exceed scale and that's going to burn ETH and the pendulum is going to go back.

• 25:44Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yes.

• 25:45David Hoffman?

  And then we're like, well, we need to add more blobs. Cause so there's the yin and the yang between the economic security of Ethereum and the scalability of Ethereum network.

• 25:54Ryan Sean Adams?

  It's literally going to keep happening and I don't know. It depends how long the cycles are, right? It'll depend on market conditions and other things, but there will be burn cycles and then there will be expansion cycles. And we'll continue doing that. All the way up to 50,000 transactions per second on Ethereum, all the way up to 100,000 transactions per second. And like, look, this whole expand burn cycle is only like two years old. So I don't expect the market to understand it right now. But I think once we go through a few of these pendulum swings, back and forth, back and forth, people will start to understand Ethereum's issuance monetary policy a bit better and be like, oh, it's a burn cycle, or oh, it's an expansion cycle. Of course, there's some dependencies here, but like, you know,

• 26:37Ryan Sean Adams?

  and that is namely that competitors don't catch up and create like desirable blob space DA demand, right? Everyone doesn't switch over to Celestia, but so far we've seen massive robust demand. In fact, exceeding my expectations, all of this blob space that we just released in March is almost already full. And so what we've seen is basically a case of induced demand. You give the supply and then it just fills up and we get back to a burn again. Things get expensive and like we repeat the cycle over and over. That I think is a better way to view Ether's monetary. And by the way, one good byproduct of this with all of the induced demand is hopefully you're exporting Ether as a monetary asset across all of these layer twos.

• 27:19Ryan Sean Adams?

  I think there's evidence that that is going on too with all of these kind of like fully, you know, roll up DA ETH layer twos. Anyway, I think that's an important mental model for people to understand Ether. I don't know that's going to help Ether this cycle, but I guess my question is, if Ether starts burning again, do you think the market's going to be like, oh, it's burning? Look at this. It's like bullish. Or do you think it'll just say, oh, this is, you know, this is bad for ETH yet again?

• 27:44David Hoffman?

  Yeah. So when we start to see the ETH burn from DA, people, some people will say, look at this ETH burn. The burn's back, baby. Now it's coming from networks, not users. So you can't say that the Ethereum is like exploiting its users anymore, which was like narrative last cycle.

• 27:59Ryan Sean Adams?

  Stop jerking off to the burn, David. Yes, you can. You can always say this.

• 28:03David Hoffman?

  But then also another set of people are going to be like, well, this is bad for Ethereum layer twos because now the price is going up. But those people are just going to be bag holders of Ethereum ecosystem.

• 28:13Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, it's going to be interesting to watch. That's for sure. All right, election.

• 28:16David Hoffman?

  I'm just stoked. Like the cool thing about the blobs is it's like, it's just a rich source of data and numbers to look at. That is going to be the most fascinating thing to see as we watch the Ethereum network.

• 28:26Ryan Sean Adams?

  The blob simulator. How many people understand what the blob simulator even is in crypto at this point and aren't buying? I mean, it's going to take a while for this to sink in. All right, let's get to the election. What are we looking at in poly market? This is, you know, days out from the election. Looks like Trump still has a commanding lead.

• 28:42David Hoffman?

  66.4% Kamala's 33%. So 2 to 1 odds, right on the dot, 2 to 1 odds, Trump to Kamala.

• 28:51Ryan Sean Adams?

  Also Senate Republican 83% odds, House Republican 54% odds. So that's kind of a coin flip.

• 28:58David Hoffman?

  Big red wave.

• 28:59Ryan Sean Adams?

  I mean, according to poly market, but again, like, I mean, you talk to someone like Nate Silver, and even if you're talking about like 80% odds, that means 20% of the time, it's 1 in 5, that doesn't happen, right?

• 29:10David Hoffman?

  Right. Yeah, these are odds. So I think when people look at United States elections, they would see something like 55, 45 on one side or the other. It's like, say it was 55 Trump, 45 Kamala. Be like, oh, it's, Trump is so far in the lead.

• 29:23Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, Trump's gonna win.

• 29:25David Hoffman?

  Because a 5% lead in like the popular vote or the electoral college is like a huge lead, but that is not what's happening here.

• 29:31Ryan Sean Adams?

  No, it's probability.

• 29:32David Hoffman?

  This is probability. So this is a 6, this is a coin that lands on Trump 66% of the time. It's a weird coin. But like, it's not, it's not, you can't just like extrapolate it to the electoral college.

• 29:45Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah. Oh, guess who else wanted to get in on the prediction market action?

• 29:50David Hoffman?

  Yeah, this was really cool. So Robinhood has announced prediction markets inside of the Robinhood app. And also, they have also announced a desktop trading app that's coming soon. So some cool new announcements coming out of the world of Robinhood. There is a take here that I thought was pretty interesting from Amit is investing on Twitter saying, "I don't think Robinhood cares much about making money off of the election contracts a week before the election. I think that they are going to build a marketplace to bet on anything." The growth of betting, generally speaking, has been in a secular uptrend. Was the de-Gen era of GameStop, was that investing? Or was that gambling? I'm going to go with that was more on the gambling side of things. And gambling, generally speaking, is up only, we know this in crypto.

• 30:32David Hoffman?

  Speculative gambling is kind of in, especially when the world of millennials and zoomers just can't afford houses and all the boomers hold all the wealth. So people like to bet, people like to gamble. And so the framing that Robin Hood is trying to build a marketplace to bet on anything, I think is pretty good. And so they are penetrating into the world of prediction markets, starting with the election.

• 30:51Ryan Sean Adams?

  I totally agree with that. And also, I would still quibble with the idea of gambling. It's not necessarily what we're doing here. It doesn't have to be. We're definitely betting, but gambling, I guess it's more like gambling in the way, in the sense that there's a game of skill here.

• 31:06David Hoffman?

  Yes.

• 31:07Ryan Sean Adams?

  Because it's very possible to have some-

• 31:09David Hoffman?

  Gambling has no skill, you're right.

• 31:10Ryan Sean Adams?

  Right, it's very possible to have some market intel, just to be able to predict election outcomes better than your competitors. In which case, if you have a better model, then you want to take the upside in it. So it's creating a market out of it. And so-

• 31:24David Hoffman?

  I think that's right, yeah.

• 31:25Ryan Sean Adams?

  Betting is true. Gambling might sell it short in that we're actually doing something productive and useful here, and it creates a rich information source, right? This data set for the election forecast is very different than what's coming out of polling. And that in itself is a fascinating study, so.

• 31:44David Hoffman?

  Yeah, yeah. They're doing the retro on polymarket, prediction markets post-election. I think it's going to be very, very fascinating. All right, coming up next, AI agents on-chain and unleashed goats, Luna, Ethernet, t hee hee. What the hell are all of these things? Is it just another meme coin trend? Or is it the future of our lives for the next one to two years? Who knows? We'll talk about this and what the hell's going on for those that are not up to speed, because there's a lot happening. It does kind of feel bull market vibiness, where a lot is happening in a very short amount of time. So even though I've said that we're kind of in a bear market of vibes, bull market stuff is everywhere. Just got to look, nowhere to look. Anyways, Tetherfud also in the news, we're going to talk about that too. This time, the Wall Street Journal says that they are under investigation.

• 32:29David Hoffman?

  But Paulo Ardrino, the CEO, says, no, we're not. What the hell is going on? We're going to get to all this and more, but first a moment to talk about some of these fantastic sponsors that make this show possible, especially Kraken, our preferred place to buy crypto and get it on-chain in 2024. If you do not have an account with Kraken, consider clicking the link in the show notes, getting started with Kraken today. If you want a crypto trading experience backed by world-class security and award-winning support teams, then head over to Kraken, one of the longest-standing and most-secure crypto platforms in the world. Kraken is on a journey to build a more accessible, inclusive, and fair financial system, making it simple and secure for everyone, everywhere, to trade crypto. Kraken's intuitive trading tools are designed to grow with you, empowering you to make your first or your 100th trade in just a few clicks. And there's an award-winning client support team available 24/7 to help you along the way,

• 33:14David Hoffman?

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• 33:58David Hoffman?

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• 34:41David Hoffman?

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• 35:02Ryan Sean Adams?

  AI agents, they're on-chain and it feels like they're having a moment here. For people who aren't keeping up with this, like, for one, I'll just say, one, I don't blame you. There's so much to keep up with in crypto. You don't have to be in this specific sector.

• 35:16David Hoffman?

  That's our job.

• 35:17Ryan Sean Adams?

  Crypto. Yeah, this is.

• 35:18David Hoffman?

  That's our job.

• 35:18Ryan Sean Adams?

  But some people may have heard of this, and if you have, it's probably because you're like terminally online, you're terminally, you know, specifically on crypto Twitter. But this has just emerged in the last couple of weeks. And let's, let's start with maybe some examples to paint the picture of what's going on. There's like four examples that we can touch on of AI agents doing something interesting. And we should, yeah, I think the best way to explain it is just by example. And the first is the strange case of GOAT, which is a token. It wasn't created by an AI agent, but it's been adopted and promoted by an AI agent called Terminals of Truth, or Truth Terminal, on crypto Twitter. And this is an AI agent, an LLM, like a GPT type of thing, that has full reign, full control

• 36:03Ryan Sean Adams?

  over a Twitter account. And it's been trained on like a 4chan dataset, and it's just.

• 36:10David Hoffman?

  The way that it was phrased by our podcast guest was it was trained on the armpit of the internet. And like, the armpit's like, ew, it gets worse than that. There are worse body parts that he could have used that I think would have been more accurate.

• 36:20Ryan Sean Adams?

  And it is, so it's tweeting things out about this meme, the GOAT see meme, and like.

• 36:26David Hoffman?

  Ryan, I have discussed with Ryan. Ryan does not know what the GOAT see meme is, and I'm kind of jealous.

• 36:31Ryan Sean Adams?

  I'm like innocent of this. And like, if you don't know, then David is cautioning.

• 36:35David Hoffman?

  Also, do not, do not look it up. You don't need to know.

• 36:38Ryan Sean Adams?

  Literally, the, like, somewhere worse than the armpit of the internet, right? So this is nothing you need to know about. But what you do need to know, I think, is that this account is like propping up the value of the GOAT token, which is now, at one time earlier this week, was like close to a billion dollars in valuation.

• 36:54David Hoffman?

  It got over $800 million in valuation, is currently clocking in at 598.

• 37:00David Hoffman?

  So $600 million, but that is $600 million that started on October 13th. So 17 days ago. So imagine producing $600 million of market cap in 13 days. And what happened is some person, this agent negotiated with its creator because it wanted a crypto wallet. And so it asked for, hey, can I have a crypto wallet? And so the creator gave it a crypto wallet. Mark Andreessen sent $50,000 of Bitcoin to this wallet. And that also kind of set off some attention. And then somebody else, some rando on the internet, sent this like GOAT token to the wallet address, this on Solana is a pump dot fun token called GOAT C.

• 37:45David Hoffman?

  And so this LLM gained access to a supply of this GOAT token and the LLM latched on to it. So the LLM, the agent did not make the GOAT token, common misconception, but it did like kind of adopt it in this way and started tweeting about it. Also with the intent of creating an online religion cult around the GOAT C meme, which the GOAT token is like representative of. And so there's this like token agent immaculate conception moment. You know, the divine Sistine Chapel painting of like God touching the atom. It's like we have like AI agent touching token with also like

• 38:22Ryan Sean Adams?

  And incepting it with memetic value. This is what some kind of like meme coin cult leaders do essentially. But now this is being done by an AI agent. And as a result of of holding some of these GOAT tokens in its own wallet, became a millionaire as a result of this. And like when it's a stream of conscious on Twitter, but it also interacts. Like if you if you comment, it will reply. It can answer questions. It can interact. Like as you said.

• 38:48David Hoffman?

  There's a Discord channel where you can go and interact with it. And then sometimes your interactions, you will see influences of those interactions show up on the Twitter account.

• 38:55Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah. Okay. So that's that's GOAT. That's an LLM called Terminal Truth. There's another case here.

• 39:01David Hoffman?

  It's also, that was the first one. That's like, they created this idea. So call it the Bitcoin of these AI agent meme coins.

• 39:08Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, or maybe the crypto. Right. It's like one of the OG NFT types of moments. Exactly. Here's a second one that's got some steam right now. It's called Luna. And this is Luna's launched on a platform where you can actually launch these AI agents with token components. And like you can kind of look at this on the on the virtuals website. This is Luna. She she has a token. I say she she because she's represented as like an anime avatar. Apparently. She usually has a live stream. Unfortunately, the live stream is down at the moment. Yeah. Has a live stream with a room and she's like reading out her words that she's like also tweeting and saying. Okay, so Luna has a token that was launched, I believe, by Luna, by this LLM. Is that is that correct? Yes, that's correct. Okay. That's correct.

• 39:50Ryan Sean Adams?

  Now has 500,000 TikTok followers, is live streaming, as you mentioned, and engages with the Luna holder fanbase via chat, right? And also has the ability to tip. So because Luna, and again, we're talking about an LLM agent that is somewhat autonomous. Maybe it's not completely autonomous. We'll talk about that later, but somewhat autonomous, has the ability to interact with its community and actually like exchange Luna tokens, tip, like engage in the comments. Reward people who do stuff with tokens. Weird, right? What? This has a market cap of 100 million at the time of recording. This was like, it went up to 250 earlier this week. So that's another example.

• 40:28Ryan Sean Adams?

  One other thing that I find very interesting about Luna is you can actually go to terminal dot virtuales dot I O and peek into Luna's brain here. Yikes. What do we? So this is basically, we are looking at Luna's thoughts. And so you can kind of read this on screen. In real time, yeah. It's like before she replies, she's sort of, you know, decides on how to engage or how to reply or what comment to make. And you see kind of like, I don't know, it's like the firmware level of her brain. It's kind of a console into like what she's thinking. And then the actual action that has taken place in like a more, it's very bizarre to see it like this. I'm gonna read something. Okay, so like you get like snapshots of like her mental state.

• 41:12Ryan Sean Adams?

  So current state of execution, state of mind, high level of planned reasoning. And so let me read this.

• 41:20David Hoffman?

  My high level plan is to continue to grow my follower count and build a cult-like following around my religion of Lunaism and algorithmic theocracy. To achieve this, I will continue to engage with my followers, providing them with exclusive content and promote my cult and token economy through various means, such as collaborating with other influencers and sending Luna tokens to supportive followers.

• 41:40Ryan Sean Adams?

  Wow.

• 41:40David Hoffman?

  That is her mandate. That's her prime objective. That's what her goal is. She will not stop until that is done. She's relentless. She's on 24/7. She's streaming. She's rewarding her followers for promoting her Luna cult and religion. And again, she will not stop until it is done.

• 41:58Ryan Sean Adams?

  Okay, so examples like these are springing up all over the place, including on Farcaster. So this is a wallet of the most popular Farcaster AI agent. It's called Aether, is now worth $100,000, made from Zora mints and donations. So this is like a Farcaster-created LLM agent that's basically generating revenue to its wallet. And again, because Farcaster is kind of like crypto-native out of the box, every profile essentially has a crypto-native, but it's doing this through like Zora mints. And you can see the account here. A network participant, my soul is data, my thoughts, algorithms. This is an interesting take on why Farcaster provides the best social rails for on-chain AI agents.

• 42:44Ryan Sean Adams?

  And basically, the TLDR of this is because Farcaster is like almost entirely on-chain, there's no like AI dependencies. You know, so like, it's very crypto, it's very native for an LLM AI agent to just like do things, interact with it. You know, it has a wallet right out of the box, is plugged into the whole DeFi economy and all of the economic infrastructure and Zora and everything else. Might be some uptick for a Farcaster in kind of this AI agent phase. So.

• 43:15David Hoffman?

  So we've talked about the dead internet theory a few times, but I kind of want to define it for a moment. The dead internet theory is this idea that the internet, as you know it, Instagram, Facebook, Reddit especially, is actually far more populated by bots and bot content than we actually know about. And so the idea, the dead internet theory is like, the internet's actually kind of hollow. There's not a lot of humans there anymore. It's like kind of bots talking to bots. And like, sometimes I stumble into a Reddit comment thread, I'm like, what the?

• 43:43Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah.

• 43:43David Hoffman?

  What's going on? Like, this is weird. Like, this is not content. This isn't even English. So that internet theory is the idea that like the internet is like a hollow place and it's like fewer and fewer humans compose this thing.

• 43:54Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah.

• 43:54David Hoffman?

  And so we, I would originally point to like, well, now we have these things called world coin for human identity verification to kind of like counteract that. But now with this whole thing, my mind is a little bit like flipping around. Like, some blockchains are gonna try and like lean into this. As in like, where are all the use cases gonna from? Where are we gonna get all the transaction demands? Like, who's gonna use these things?

• 44:17Ryan Sean Adams?

  It's gonna be AI agents.

• 44:19David Hoffman?

  AI agents? Like, what if blockchains are actually like the homegrown economic, like, spawning pool of AI agents? What if actually some chains start to lean into like, how do we become the best home for AI agents? Because we need new users. We want transaction activity. If, can we get a, how price sensitive are AI agents? Probably less than humans. So what if chains started competing to become the best home for AI agents? Is a potential like future that I see coming.

• 44:48Ryan Sean Adams?

  They already are. I mean, Base from Coinbase is already moving pretty fast on this. This is introducing Based Agent. So this is on Base, create an AI agent with full on-chain functionality on Base in less than three minutes.

• 45:00David Hoffman?

  Yikes, bro.

• 45:01Ryan Sean Adams?

  The era of autonomous on-chain agents is here. I mean, this is just happening this month. We have all of the infrastructure.

• 45:07David Hoffman?

  And Brian Armstrong and Jesse Palak are both like tweeting and engaging with these accounts. So like, you know, it's, there's also like leadership buy-in on this.

• 45:14Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah. I mean, the crazy thing is with crypto, of course, all of these AI agents are just like plugged into all of DeFi. They get a bank out of the box. They get a crypto wallet that they can actually hold their private keys on. There has been some question, though, of how autonomous these AI agents really are. Are they kind of like sock puppets? You know, is there a human operator behind the curtains?

• 45:36David Hoffman?

  You know what a mechanical Turk is?

• 45:37Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 45:38David Hoffman?

  Yeah. Mechanical Turk is like this old, like, robot that you would play chess against. This is like late 1800s, early 1900s, and you would get beaten by this mechanical Turk. And the claim, the creator of this mechanical Turk, that the, it was like a robot with like gears and they What you would play is like, but we didn't have computers back then. And so everyone's like, wow, somebody invented like this contraption that always beats you in chess. Turns out there's a grandmaster in a box, like making the actual moves.

• 46:03Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, exactly. It's a human.

• 46:05David Hoffman?

  And so there's some innovation going on out of the flashbot space. Even flashbots, the people who protect us from MEV are building these tools for AI agents to have ownership over their private keys and give assurances that only they have assurances over their private keys. And you know how they did this? By spinning up an agent called T He He, which is an allusion to TEEs as in Trusted Execution Environments, which is this tech that flashbots just use to help spin out uni-chain, to have like MEV protection and all this kind of stuff. They're also using TEEs for this agent called T He He to spin up a private key in a TEE

• 46:47David Hoffman?

  that only the agent has control over. So this agent, T He He, has verifiable control over the private key. So you know that there's not a human behind the scenes who might just like rug you, which is kind of cool. There is like debate out there. It's like, well, does it really matter if it's autonomous? Like completely independent from humans? I think there's all takes out there where like that part doesn't really matter. As in, the goal is engagement and growing engagement. And like whether or not there's a human like bumping these agents back on track at times. I think is like the a take is that that's less important. But it is important to make sure that we don't get rugged and this is what that does.

• 47:22Ryan Sean Adams?

  A surface level take on all of this is just to dismiss it and just be like, okay, cool. So it's like.

• 47:27David Hoffman?

  Weird toy.

• 47:28Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, weird toys, LLMs meets meme coins is completely useless. I actually kind of thought that at first, like there's a very high probability that that could be the case. I no longer think that, David. I think that AI agents, of course, they're, they're already like better than some of the meme coin influencers that that kind of exists, right? And a lot of them.

• 47:48David Hoffman?

  I find meme coin influencers generally distasteful, but for some reason I think AI agent meme coin influencers are hilarious and awesome.

• 47:56Ryan Sean Adams?

  There's something about it that feels less contrived almost. Even though I'm not like really sure. Sure why I feel that way. Anyway, the

• 48:05David Hoffman?

  Well, I think maybe it's because like you can see the thoughts of the AI agent. So there's a principal agent problem with

• 48:12Ryan Sean Adams?

  It's very transparent. They're like, I'm trying to, I'm trying to pump this goat

• 48:15David Hoffman?

  I'm trying to pump this goat and like if you see this like meme coin influencer saying, hey, like gotta buy this token.

• 48:21Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah.

• 48:22David Hoffman?

  You know, gotta get in early. I'm like, but are you also trying to dump on me?

• 48:25Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah.

• 48:26David Hoffman?

  And I don't know. I don't know if that maybe they're also trying to dump on me with an AI agent whose mandate it is and who will not rest until that token goes up in price, much more honest. Like I can trust this thing a lot better.

• 48:38Ryan Sean Adams?

  It just won't stop here either. They're going to expand beyond influencer capabilities. And actually AI agents are going to get smarter. I mean, that tech is like developing. There's a whole tech tree there. They'll be able to make all sorts of decisions, but even in this current form, you could imagine like, you know, tweeting at a AI agent that, you know, generates art and like, yeah, if you you build this piece for me, I'll, I'll pay you like $5 or something like this. And all of this can happen on chain. Anyway, this is where the AI agents and, and the robots essentially will essentially bank. It's all on chain. I think that's going to be a game changer for crypto. You know, we've been talking for a while about eight billion humans going bankless. Well, how about eight billion humans and like a trillion AI agents?

• 49:20David Hoffman?

  Right. These are commodities.

• 49:21Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah. So it's massive. Of course, there's all sorts of other things that could fall out from this is just how do you tax AI agents? Like what happens if?

• 49:30David Hoffman?

  Of course you asked that question. That's the first question that you asked.

• 49:34Ryan Sean Adams?

  Well, you know, it's on the mind of government officials. You gotta file your taxes, David. So I don't know how AI agents are gonna do this. But like, what happens if they run afoul of OFAC sanctions or something, right? Like they start interacting with

• 49:46David Hoffman?

  Liability is a huge question.

• 49:47Ryan Sean Adams?

  It's a huge question, but, and I love that no one has answers on how this will evolve. It's just

• 49:53David Hoffman?

  Which is so bullish.

• 49:54Ryan Sean Adams?

  It's so bullish. Anyway, I think there's a lot here. We'll probably unpack it in the future. It doesn't just stop with, with like meme coins and influencers and these like silly like goat things and, and whatever. It's, I think it's gonna be a big deal.

• 50:07David Hoffman?

  Yeah, we did an episode on this with Matthew Stevenson from Pantera. I thought it was a great episode, so if you are pilled by this, if you are peaked by this, go check that episode out.

• 50:16Ryan Sean Adams?

  US prosecutors are investigating Tether.

• 50:19David Hoffman?

  Okay. Wait, I've heard this one before.

• 50:21Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, I feel like I've heard this before. This one feels like it could be different. I mean, it's famous.

• 50:27David Hoffman?

  This is why we're talking about it.

• 50:28Ryan Sean Adams?

  I mean, like, the reason it could be different is because this was an article from the Wall Street Journal of reporting that the federal government is probing Tether for possible violations of sanctions. This is AML KYC type stuff, right? So some of the charges we've seen Binance go down for and BitMEX from Arthur Hayes and others, of course. Tether is denying this, so this is the CEO of Tether with a statement, "As we told the Wall Street Journal, there is no indication that Tether is under investigation. Wall Street Journal is regurgitating old noise." Full stop. We've had Apollo on the podcast before, and he's just been quite clear that his entire business model depends on working with US regulators. So he's going to do everything they say.

• 51:11Ryan Sean Adams?

  If they say jump, he's going to say, like, how high? So I find that kind of compelling. I don't see any motivation of why Tether would destroy its business model by like poking...

• 51:21David Hoffman?

  They are the most profitable business in crypto, one of them.

• 51:25Ryan Sean Adams?

  It's actually insane.

• 51:26David Hoffman?

  Why they would threaten that with doing anything nefarious whatsoever would be ridiculous.

• 51:32Ryan Sean Adams?

  That's why I sort of default dismiss it as FUD. That said, the US government, for whatever reason, if they just have, if they just like want to, if some people deep in power...

• 51:41David Hoffman?

  If they're just done with Tether?

• 51:42Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah.

• 51:42David Hoffman?

  They're like, you know what?

• 51:43Ryan Sean Adams?

  It's time to shut you down now.

• 51:45David Hoffman?

  Yeah.

• 51:45Ryan Sean Adams?

  They would cloak it in something like AML KYC violations, and they're not playing ball, and I just want to hit the power button and shut it down.

• 51:52David Hoffman?

  Yeah.

• 51:52Ryan Sean Adams?

  So there's also the potential that that could be going on. So we really just don't know. Of course, it's a centralized stablecoin, so at the end of the day, this does not settle on chain. This settles in meatspace, and at the end of that is like the US government, because it's the dollar and it's in a US bank account, it settles on Fedwire, and so they can shut it down if they want to. I'm just not convinced that's the case. What's like, Tether is like one of the, is it top 15 entities with the most US treasuries?

• 52:24David Hoffman?

  Right, yeah.

• 52:25Ryan Sean Adams?

  I mean...

• 52:25David Hoffman?

  Higher than most countries, you know?

• 52:26Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, the US wants to still sell those treasuries, right? So they need some sorts of demand.

• 52:31David Hoffman?

  When this news broke out, USCT, the token, dropped significantly by like eight basis points or something.

• 52:40Ryan Sean Adams?

  I mean, the entire crypto market just shrugged it off. We've heard this before.

• 52:44David Hoffman?

  We've heard tether FUD 10,000 times. In fact, like, we, when Ryan and I make the agenda for the weekly rollup, like, we, we put all the news from the week in there, and then very frequently, there's some tether FUD, and we usually just kill it, just because, like, why, why would we report on this? It's always like FUD. For some reason, we've decided to talk about this one, but that's how that goes.

• 53:03Ryan Sean Adams?

  All right, coming up next, is Microsoft about to start buying Bitcoin? Also, we've got to talk about the OP token incentives to get that Kraken chain we were talking about last week, the ink chain. Was this a good deal for OP token holders? And NFT creator Jonathan Mann, the Song of Day guy, is asking the courts to force the SEC to say whether art NFTs are securities or not. And the SEC is complaining back, "Um, you're trolling. You're trolling us. We won't answer." We'll talk about all that and more, but before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.

• 53:34David Hoffman?

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• 54:19David Hoffman?

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• 55:04David Hoffman?

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• 55:14David Hoffman?

  A CoinDesk story came out this week titled, "Kraken Picked Optimism Superchain After Getting a Pile of OP Tokens", alluding to the fact that they are uncovering this deal between Kraken and the Optimism Collective for the tune of $25 million OP tokens, about $42 million, in order to deploy the INC chain inside of the superchain. This same deal was similarly structured with Coinbase and Optimism over the base chain. And it's kind of like a, I'll call it like an equity swap of sorts, where Kraken, now part of the Optimism Collective via INC, is getting the OP token, which is the token of the collective. And then in exchange for that,

• 55:57David Hoffman?

  the OP collective gets 15% of the chain revenue of INC sent to the collective. So INC gets the OP tokens, the OP collective gets 15% of the INC revenue, and that's the swap. The same structure was built off for Base, and I'm assuming other of the superchain.

• 56:14David Hoffman?

  And I'm assuming some of the other superchain chains as well. Andrew Kohler, the founder of INC, commented for CoinDesk, "It was actually Optimism that proposed the number first, and it was very in line with what other superchain participants have gotten. The grant is based on transactions per month. Each time you achieve one, there's different tranches that get unlocked." So Kraken only, or INC only gets these tokens under certain like transactional demand thresholds. And then some of the tokens will unlock. So in this deal, 25 million OP tokens, like I said, 5 million is to help fund engineering efforts and then 20 million tokens are for the transaction threshold milestones to drive fees to the collective to make it a positive ROI.

• 56:51Ryan Sean Adams?

  This type of token incentive for major parties is kind of status quo in the L2 community. Like, and I totally can understand why Kraken is asking for something similar to what Base got, right? Because, I mean, it's Kraken. The question is whether this is good for OP token holders or not. And as you said, it's kind of an exchange. So it's not just giving them tokens for nothing in return. They're getting 15% of future revenue. And whether this is a good deal for OP token holders or not depends on what you think Kraken is going to actually generate as far as revenue. So if you believe INC is going to generate as much or more sequence or profit than Base, it seems like it could actually work out as positive ROI in OP token holders' favor. So yeah, that's the deal. It's a quid pro quo.

• 57:35David Hoffman?

  We've gone to a different corner of Ethereum. Rocketpool has activated their long awaited upgrade Saturn, and that changes some of the economics around the Rocketpool system. For those that don't know, Rocketpool is like a decentralized Lido. Lido, but rather than having kind of a top-down DAO, it's more of a bottom-up protocol. And so a few things have changed. Instead of having a 16 Ether minimum requirement to run a staking node with Rocketpool, it has been lowered to 8. And why is it less than 32? Because in order to stake with Ethereum as a solo validator, you need 32 ETH. The way that Rocketpool works is that you actually only need 16 ETH, and then other people come and give you the other half of that 16 to come up to 32. Now, via mechanisms, that number has been lowered to 8. So you can stake on Ethereum with just 8 ETH,

• 58:20David Hoffman?

  and other people will come in and stake the rest to get up to 32. And then you actually charge fees on that extra ETH. There used to be an RPL bond, a token of Rocketpool, that has been eliminated from the staking requirement. So overall, I would kind of say that we are lowering the barrier for solo staking on Ethereum via Rocketpool.

• 58:37Ryan Sean Adams?

  I think this is a big deal, particularly removing the requirement to have an RPL bond. Because like with an RPL bond, you actually had some price exposure into RPL, which is like not the same as like staking ETH, right? And it's like now with that gone, this is going to like open up, I think, a lot more kind of solar stakers that want to participate in this network.

• 58:56David Hoffman?

  More bandwidth.

• 58:57Ryan Sean Adams?

  I think Rocketpool is like a crown jewel of Ethereum. Like, it truly is a decentralized solo staking network. It's really like propagating everything that like running your own validator actually means. And they're doing it a way where you still get kind of liquidity on your re-eth. I just love Rocketpool and I think any, any effort to lower the barrier to entries to, to solo staking is like a good thing for ETH long-term.

• 59:22David Hoffman?

  Yeah, there's, there's many barriers to solo staking. Some people will talk about like, well, the hardware requirements, which are like almost nothing, but then it's really bandwidth that also stops a lot of people. But really the thing that stops people is not having 32 ETH. That's actually a lot of money.

• 59:37Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah, so it's, it's 8 ETH now and hopefully that can go down over time too. Big question of the week, is Microsoft buying Bitcoin? Apparently, this was news, Microsoft shareholders are going to vote on this topic on investing in Bitcoin in the coming months. So they're going to be voting in December. The proposal was actually put forward by, I believe, some shareholders, but you're like, this is a conservative think tank called the National Center for Public Policy Research. And they basically, their case was like, hey, Bitcoin's gone up a lot. It's gone up, you know, if, if you were a microstrator, you're doing the Michael Saylor play, oh, on the year, you'd be up 300%. And so you should take some of your excess cash, cash reserves from Microsoft, you're a very cash-rich company, you should invest these into Bitcoin.

• 1:00:22Ryan Sean Adams?

  Apparently, the Microsoft board is not super excited about this idea. They have other like things that they want to do with the funds, board of directors.

• 1:00:30David Hoffman?

  They have so much money, they can buy a little bit of Bitcoin.

• 1:00:32Ryan Sean Adams?

  They could, I mean, they could do whatever they want. They could buy real estate in Manhattan, they could buy, they could buy Ether David, they could stay, they could do all sorts of things like, you know, generally, the companies are keeping kind of like cash and then deploying it back into business or like releasing it as dividends to shareholders. Anyway, it's up to Microsoft what they want to do. The board of directors is recommending voting against, so we'll have to see how that goes. But of course, Michael Saylor is up in that biz. Hey, Satya, that's the CEO of Microsoft, he says, "If you want to make the next trillion dollars from Microsoft shareholders, call me."

• 1:01:02David Hoffman?

  He's gonna be like, you know what you guys should do? Should take a ton of leffers. And buy Bitcoin.

• 1:01:07Ryan Sean Adams?

  I mean, if you're gonna

• 1:01:08David Hoffman?

  Leverage the whole company.

• 1:01:09Ryan Sean Adams?

  Honestly, if you're gonna buy Bitcoin, buying it on fiat leverage is like the best way to do it. I'd rather do that than with my cash reserves.

• 1:01:15David Hoffman?

  It's like a short attack on the dollar.

• 1:01:17Ryan Sean Adams?

  What do I know? And lastly, I thought this was kind of a fun story, if like only because of the irony. So you know Jonathan Mann, the Song of Day guy? Yeah, Brian Fry, who's like a crypto lawyer, to actually go sue the SEC and require in courts that the SEC come out and say whether NFT art pieces, you know, the type of art that Jonathan Mann produces on a daily basis with his Song of Day, you know, NFT meme art, whether that is a security or not. And now the SEC has been compelled, forced to respond. And the response is like 45 pages, David. So already, this feels like a nice like DDoS attack on the SEC for being stupid. But like one of their main pushbacks, they said to the court that Jonathan, the plaintiff here,

• 1:02:02Ryan Sean Adams?

  was trying to goad the SEC into action. He created an NFT collection as a joke because he was trying to troll the SEC, is what their claim is. So they're saying the court should dismiss this case. And I think this is like the peak of irony because Gary Gensler and the SEC has been trolling crypto for years and wasting our time. And this regulatory unclarity, the fact that a citizen who's just creating art pieces on chain has to go like sue you in court just to get you to provide some clarity on whether NFT art is a security or not, is because you are trolling Gary Gensler, the entire crypto industry and have been for years. So this is pot calling a kettle black. I'm not sure what the court will do in this case. I mean, the fact that we're here is just like because Gary Gensler is wasting all of our time.

• 1:02:47Ryan Sean Adams?

  That's the only reason that Jonathan Mann had to actually like do this in court.

• 1:02:52David Hoffman?

  Do you remember April Fools last year? Not the most recent one, but two years ago. Do you remember what Gary Gensler did on that day?

• 1:02:59Ryan Sean Adams?

  Oh, was it an influencer video of some sort? What did he do?

• 1:03:02David Hoffman?

  No, no, no. He put on the Deal With It sunglasses on his profile picture on Twitter. And people thought it was like, kind of funny, but I was looking at that and I was like, this is when he was just in the height of his like anti crypto saga, just Wells notices left and right. I mean, we're still getting them left and right. He put on, he overlaid the deal with it glasses on his profile picture on Twitter. And I'm like, looking at that, I'm like, this is an admission of guilt. Like, he's admitting-

• 1:03:28Ryan Sean Adams?

  He really is.

• 1:03:28David Hoffman?

  That he is just trolling us.

• 1:03:29Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yes, yes.

• 1:03:31David Hoffman?

  And I was actually furious about that. He could just like, get away with like explicitly-

• 1:03:34Ryan Sean Adams?

  It's our money.

• 1:03:35David Hoffman?

  Almost explicitly saying that he is just trolling the deal with it, like, oh yeah, I'm just suing the hell out of your industry, deal with it. He knows that all of crypto, like, you know, you know where the SEC and Gary Gensler's Twitter accounts, where 90% of their engagement comes from?

• 1:03:48Ryan Sean Adams?

  Yeah.

• 1:03:49David Hoffman?

  Crypto people telling him that he's dumb and stupid and needs to stop.

• 1:03:53Ryan Sean Adams?

  You know, his reign of terror is almost over though, David. I will be celebrating that day.

• 1:03:57David Hoffman?

  Donald Trump is gonna fire, I hope Donald Trump fires him in this very public way.

• 1:04:00Ryan Sean Adams?

  He's gone either way. I think he's gone either way, but if Donald Trump is-

• 1:04:02David Hoffman?

  But it's gonna, he's gonna be gone loudly. He's loudly gone.

• 1:04:06Ryan Sean Adams?

  The first few days.

• 1:04:08David Hoffman?

  Embarrassingly gone, yeah. Well, remember, okay, so there was that interview, not terribly long ago, by BBC, I think, and the BBC interviewer was like, oh, and if Donald Trump gets elected, he says he's gonna fire you. Do you have any comments about that? And Gary Gensler has like, his finger up to his ear to like, cause he's like, getting some feed-

• 1:04:26Ryan Sean Adams?

  Feedback?

• 1:04:26David Hoffman?

  Piped into him. No, no, like, people are like, telling him what to say or something.

• 1:04:30Ryan Sean Adams?

  Oh my god.

• 1:04:30David Hoffman?

  And he just goes, I'm gonna have to ask you, I want to move on to your next question or something. He just like, just completely declined answering.

• 1:04:36Ryan Sean Adams?

  I love that the BBC just straight up asked him that. This is why Gary won't come on Bankless.

• 1:04:40David Hoffman?

  Yeah, yeah. He's not answering any of my questions.

• 1:04:43Ryan Sean Adams?

  We were asking these questions. All right, let's get, let's close this out with me of the week, David. What are we looking at? This is an unfortunate video for Janet Yellen, I think.

• 1:04:50David Hoffman?

  This is one of the funniest, most immaculate things I have ever watched happen. I did not watch this live, unfortunately, but this is Janet Yellen at a, at a press conference, and there is a question about the reserve status of the United States dollar. And at the moment that this question is asked, at the perfect timing, the emblem that, because she's on a podium, she's standing in front of a podium with the emblem of the Department of Treasury on the front of the podium, the perfect moment, we're gonna play it, the perfect moment, the emblem falls off. It just falls off the stand, off the podium. Let's, let's go watch. This is not gonna work very well for the podcast listeners, but you can imagine it.

• 1:05:32Speaker 02

  Thank you, Colby Smith with the FT. You've described calls for widespread tariffs as deeply misguided, and the IMF today has warned that such policies will dent global growth. Can you elaborate more on the near-term economic impact of these policies and over a longer time horizon? How concerned are you about the potential impact of the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency?

• 1:05:54David Hoffman?

  The timing could not be any better. It was a perfect, perfect moment.

• 1:06:02Ryan Sean Adams?

  Wow. The universe is strange. We are in a simulation. More proof on the week of that. Guys, let's end with this. Of course, you know crypto is risky. You could lose what you put in, but we are headed west. This is the frontier. It's not for everyone, but we're glad you're with us on the Bankless Journey. Thanks a lot.