An Official Celtics Funk, Plus Todd McShay and Million-Dollar Picks

The Ringer's Bill Simmons asks, "What's wrong with the Celtics?" after being in-house for Celtics-Clippers and Celtics-Lakers (2:07). Next, Bill talks with Todd McShay about Jayden Daniels's historic rookie season, Washington's momentum heading into the NFC championship game against the Eagles, whether this is Josh Allen's year, and the keys to this weekend's Bills-Chiefs matchup (23:53). They also talk about Drake Maye's second season in New England, the upcoming NFL draft, and more (51:39). Finally, Bill is joined by Joe House to preview the NFL conference championship games, and make some Million-Dollar Picks (1:14:14). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Todd McShay and Joe House Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Bill Simmons?

  Coming up, the state of the Celtics, Todd McShay, million dollar picks, all next. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season. Uber Eats is delivering deals every game day. This week, get 10 free boneless wings from Wingstop on qualifying orders. Game on, flavor on, Wingstop is here. So if your fantasy league is coming over for some in-person smack talk, order Wingstop on Uber Eats and get 10 boneless wings free. It's the perfect way to keep everyone fed tonight so you can focus on the game. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score a great deal. Order now and get 10 boneless wings free from Wingstop, only on Uber Eats. Offer valid from September 14th to September 27th, and from November 2nd to November 16th. Order minimum before taxes and fees is required.

• 0:46Bill Simmons?

  See retailer's storefront for details. Taxes, fees, and terms apply. Product availability varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm. Every football player brings something different to the field. Maybe they have a cannon arm, speed, power. Maybe they have their own podcast. That being said, no two players are exactly alike. And the same is true off the field. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you, so they can help personalize coverage for your life and budget. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a new rewatchables mailbag

• 1:28Bill Simmons?

  on Monday. We have another episode coming, this coming Monday. If you love the Oscars, go check out the big picture, Sean Fantasy and Amanda Dobbins reacted to all the Oscar nominations today. You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well, where you can watch the rewatchables. You can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel, where Cousin Sal and I are going to be live right after Chiefs-Bills on Sunday night, doing this podcast. So if you haven't watched us do the pod live, guess what? It's just like us doing the podcast, because that's what it is. FanDuel, I'm doing those 30 on 30 picks every Friday where we try to guess who's gonna

• 2:09Bill Simmons?

  score 30 plus points on the Friday NBA slate. They do a little profit boost action for you. So check out on my Twitter account, I will be tweeting out who I think is gonna get that on Friday. Coming up, the state of the Celtics. I saw them back to back nights, Clippers, Lakers. I have a lot of thoughts. That's at the top. Then Todd McShay, he comes on because he's doing a show for us on The Ringer, The McShay Show. Very good podcasts and essential listen during the college football season. So we're gonna talk NFL playoffs, college football draft, whole bunch of things. And then last but not least, diehard Washington

• 2:51Bill Simmons?

  Commanders fan, Joe House, he's gonna do million dollar picks with me. He's out of his mind. It's colonoscopy juice house. That's who's on the pod today. We'll explain when he comes on. So that's it. First, our friends from Pro-Jet.

• 3:24Bill Simmons?

  All right. So earlier in the week, I told myself Celtics Clippers Wednesday night, Celtics Lakers Thursday night, both in LA. I'm gonna go to both games and then I'm gonna come home and I'm gonna do a little monologue at the top of the Thursday podcast, no matter what happens. My worst case scenario is that the Celtics were gonna be alarming in both games in that we're gonna have real questions now about what's going on with this team. Cause it's beyond a funk and it's beyond an on off button issue. There's something a little bit deeper happening and I was fortunate enough to sit pretty close to the court both games. I was behind the Celtic bench for the Laker game, which was just embarrassing and really awful.

• 4:04Bill Simmons?

  And I think we're at the point now where we have to ask ourselves, is this Celtics team just different than it was last season? All right, well, what's different about it?

• 4:14Bill Simmons?

  Let's start with Jaylen Brown, who isn't shooting as well as he did last year. I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna do the thing where I just read you a bunch of stats. You can look up all these stats. He's not shooting as well, three pointers, two pointers. He's clumsier with the ball. He's closer to where he was two years ago than where he was last year. Where last year, it felt by the end of the season, Tatum was 1A and Jaylen Brown was 1B. Tatum is clearly better than Brown this season. There is no, the 1A, 1B thing is out the window. And I, I don't really understand what's happening here. Studying it in person for the last two days. He seems jacked. He looks like he's filming Rambo First Blood Part Two or Predator with Stallone in the eighties.

• 4:57Bill Simmons?

  He's like really jacked to the point that I'm starting to wonder if it's made him a little more stiff. And, and you know, there was some really weird Clipper moments on Wednesday where they're playing against, you know, the role players and the scrubs and the Clippers, because the Clippers rest everybody. They're furious with the league that the league rescheduled the fire game and it was six games in nine days. So they're like, we're throwing away the Celtic game. And as soon as they did that, I was like, watch this. I bet they, but they hang around somehow with this Celtics. They were very well coached and they really exploited some of the Jalen stuff that's been going on this year. What was fascinating about the Clipper game, Van Gundy, who's like the defensive coordinator on the Clippers, was just advising all of these different ways to mess with the Celtics.

• 5:41Bill Simmons?

  Just, they were trapping Jason Tatum 45 feet from the basket as he was trying to do his point forward stuff. They were trying to dive at Jalen's dribble, like which a lot of smart teams do. They're also trying to trap him at the end of games and just basically make him make dumb plays, which he was, for whatever reason, really happy to do in that Clipper game. And they were exploiting the fact that this year, unlike last year, you can go buy all the Celtic guys. You saw it in the Clipper game with guys like Derek Jones and Kevin Porter was doing it until the Celtics brought in Jaden Springer. The Lakers tonight, how many times did Reeves go by somebody? I mean, the Celtics, one of the things, the best things

• 6:22Bill Simmons?

  about them last year was the White-Holiday combo and the fact that those guys could lock down basically everybody in the other team. Tatum as a two-way player, Jalen Brown, whose defense, especially in the playoffs, was great. And this year, they don't lock anybody down. Anybody in the league can go by them and get to the rim, which goes back to, is this an on-off button issue or is just something different than last year? This is not an old team. These guys are all in their twenties. These guys are all in their prime or about to hit their prime. And it's sloppy stuff that you could blame the fact that they had a 100-game season last year, that Tatum played in the playoffs, that White, not in the playoffs, in the Olympics, that White and Holiday were in

• 7:05Bill Simmons?

  the Olympics, that Horford's older, that they didn't have Porzingis for the first two months. There's all these things you can blame, and I'm perfectly fine with doing that. But it doesn't explain why Jalen isn't as good as he was last year. I test over and over again, game after game, does not seem like the same guy as he was last year. Why isn't the defense as good as it was last year? Well, you can look at the advanced metrics, and it seems fine. Even like the last 19 games, they're 10 and 9. If you look at their net rating on NBA.com for the last 20 games of the season, not counting today at Lakers, they're second in defensive rating. So there's all these advanced things you can look at and be like, no, no, they're fine. But I'm telling you, if you're watching

• 7:48Bill Simmons?

  them every night, if you're going to the games, they don't really look fine. They don't lock teams down with defense the way they did. They're never up 20, 25 like they were. Last year, they felt like they were up 20 in 75 to 80% of the games. This year, that feels like they're down 15, down 10, down 12 in the first half of a lot of these games. And if you go back, you think they were 21 and 5, and now they're 31 and 14. So they're 10 and 9 in their last 19. I watched all of the games they lost, and I went to two of them, or went to one of them. The 10 and 9 thing starts with the Bulls. They lose because Levine is just the best guy on the floor.

• 8:32Bill Simmons?

  He's 36. He just beats them. He plays better than everybody in the Celtics. Fine, that's one game. They lose to the Magic, who were missing guys because they couldn't hit threes. They were 8 for 33 from threes. And if you watch that game, the Magic just played really hard. They played harder than the Celtics did. And you go, huh, all right, well, you know, on off switch, fine. Sixers Christmas, same thing. Sixers wanted the game more. Chuck that one up. Well, the Sixers, they had all their guys. It was national TV. They have a losing record. They wanted the game more. It was their Super Bowl. Chuck that one up. Just making excuses time after time with this. Pacers, they win the first game against the Pacers by a million points. And you know, two days later, the way this works with these, where you played the team two times in three games,

• 9:16Bill Simmons?

  you just know the Pacers are going to do better in the second game, which of course they do. But the Celtics shoot 54 threes and they lose. So you leave that game, you're like, eh, too many threes. Didn't go the best enough. So again, excuses. OKC was the first sign of like slight alarm because they played really well for three quarters. They were going toe to toe with the team that, you know, they might be seen in the finals, assuming they have a chance to get there. And then Drew stunk.

• 9:48Bill Simmons?

  SGA was the best guy in the game. And in the fourth quarter, in Nut Crunch time, which was really good for the Celtics down the stretch last season, especially in the playoffs, OKC just outplayed them and stole the game from them. Slight sounds of alarm for that one. They have a home no show against the Kings, who just changed their coach. Drew and Derrick White just looked ancient in that game. Three for 12.

• 10:14Bill Simmons?

  Eh, coming back from a little road trip where they looked pretty good.

• 10:20Bill Simmons?

  Let that one slide. Again, excuses. They lose to Toronto, who's not good. And Toronto shoots 51% and Jalen's awful. He's four for 16. Another bad sign.

• 10:33Bill Simmons?

  They choke against the Atlanta Hawks and this was Drew. This was one of the worst. This is probably the worst game he played against Boston. He said, they screwed up the game. The game was gonna be over. They screwed it up. They blow it. Not the kind of thing that was happening last year, though. Fine. And then we go to this LA trip and these two games where Clippers game, just take care of the game. They're playing all their scrubs and their role players. Just knock them out, knock them out. And the, the last year's team would win the game by 40. This year's team, it's a struggle the whole time and somehow it goes to overtime. They put miles on Tatum. They put miles on Brown. They put miles on White when they're playing the Lakers the next night who are rested in the TNT game. So basically they took so much effort to win that Clipper game.

• 11:17Bill Simmons?

  But now they go into this Lakers game and, uh, and they're a mess. So back to the Jalen Brown thing. Last year, Brown and Tatum just had a really good thing going where there was games. If Tatum didn't totally have it, Brown would be able to lift it. And they just had a nice ying yang thing that they just haven't had in the same way this year. And Jalen's offense has been really rough to watch. Um, I could give you a million stats. You can go look them up, but, uh, his two point shooting is way down. His three point shooting is way down. And he's added a couple of things to his game that I just don't love. Um, there's like this flat footed fall away he has now at the foul line. I can't stand that one. Does these weird drives to the basket where instead, you know, sometimes they'll try to elevate and dunk on guys.

• 12:02Bill Simmons?

  Other times he's doing like this flat footed, kinda keeping low to the ground, like scoop into traffic thing that, uh, the Clippers were eating up last night. The alarming thing with Brown, back to the Van Gundy thing. So the Celtics are up like, you know, six points, four points, whatever, in the last minute of regulation. And they're trapping the Celtics. They're doing all these things to try to get the Celtics scrub. And they basically target Jalen Brown. And there's this one possession where, um, Van Gundy is telling them, cause we could see it. We're watching, we're watching Van Gundy's running a huddle. It was kind of amazing to watch. And he's telling the guy something. So they come out and the Celtics swing the ball and they swing it. And the Clippers are trying to get them to swing it to Brown and they do.

• 12:48Bill Simmons?

  They trap Brown. He throws it away. Clippers score. Clippers come off and they're all fired up and they're pointing at Van Gundy. It was like, you told us that was gonna happen. And I'm sitting there going, this is a bad sign if Van Gundy is just reading us. Like he's like the defensive coordinator in a football game who knows our plays. Like he's steering us to the play that we don't want to happen. It just wasn't great. They were really, really out coached in that Clipper game, which I did not love.

• 13:14Bill Simmons?

  But in general, he just.

• 13:17Bill Simmons?

  You know, he'll hit some threes. The stats are fine. He can fool you unless you're actually watching game after game. He just hasn't been as good as he, as he was last year. Derrick White's another one. Derrick White. Who the first six weeks of the season, it was like, this guy's gonna make the All-Star team. This guy is one of the best 30 assets in the league. And his three-point shooting has dropped by the month. Forty-seven percent first month, forty percent, thirty-five percent, thirty this month. The game today, he was like the 19th best player in the game. Obviously, he's not. But uh, he's just not impactful. And then Holliday. Who kind of comes and goes and he's older and he's clearly saving himself for the playoffs. First half of the game, nonexistent. Second half of the game, they come out, they're pissed against the Lakers.

• 14:01Bill Simmons?

  And they're now playing defense and Holliday is guarding everybody and has this little five-minute stretch that reminded you like, this is why this team's pretty special. When they can unleash Drew as like this defensive weapon. Tatum and Brown and Porzingis with his height, like they're, this is it. This is the team we're used to seeing and then. You know, missed a couple of shots. The Celtics were just so awful tonight. I don't know how many layups they missed, how many shots around the rim, but it felt like it was at least 20. They just couldn't buy a basket. They were just a complete mess. So the Brown thing's concerning, the White thing's concerning. Holliday is older. I'm gonna chalk it up to that.

• 14:41Bill Simmons?

  The on-off switch thing, understandable. We've seen it happen a bunch of times with teams that won the title, but. As we talked about before the season, the pods we've done. It could go one of two ways after you win the title. You either have the on-off switch. Where you have the chip on your shoulder because the bullseye is on you and everybody's coming after you and you can take that personally and be like, you know what? We're gonna kick everybody's asses again. That is not this Celtics team, at least so far.

• 15:09Bill Simmons?

  They got out coached in a few games, especially recently, the OKC game, the Clipper game last night, which they ended up winning, but definitely out coached in that one. Lakers game tonight, I don't know what the lineups, but they're playing twin towers, the whole, it's like you're doing the Lakers a favor when you're playing size, where you want to, you want to use your athleticism. Last year, one of the reasons they blew them out was they were building everything around their wings. Tonight, they're, you know, they're playing Cornet, they're doing Horford and Porzingis together. They didn't play Jaden Springer at all, even though his defense was, was so impactful yesterday. And I didn't really understand anything they were doing. I wanted them to put Jaden Springer on LeBron or Reeves, try to take those guys out and try to win the game with defense. They did

• 15:49Bill Simmons?

  the opposite and the Lakers made everything they took. There is no real roster flexibility for trades. They're a second apron team. They have a bunch of big contracts and a bunch of small contracts and nothing really in between. Springer at 4 million, Pritchard at 7 million. They don't, they don't, and I don't even know what the move is. Like the move is to hope that the light bulb goes off with these guys because right now it's not going off. I mentioned Holiday with the age, 43% shooting from three last year, 35% from this year. They're just less special and they have these funk games now that they just weren't having even in the first six weeks of the season. So as I look at the state

• 16:30Bill Simmons?

  of the Celtics, conversations I have with my friends, with my dad, with everybody I know who likes the team, nobody is like, it's fine. It's okay. We're good. Nobody thinks that, but nobody is really in full panic either. It's more like, no, no, though, it should come back. I'm not sure the defense is going to come back in the way that, that we really need it to come back unless Jalen can get back to where he was last year. And that's the guy I'm watching because I feel like Tatum actually made a slight step up, you know, from last year as a two-way guy, as a point forward, as a reliable guy night after night after night. With that said,

• 17:17Bill Simmons?

  Last night is a really good example of the difference between Jokic, Giannis, SGA, Luka when he's healthy, and then every other really good player in the league, including Tatum. Because last night was a night where it's like, you're playing all your role players in your scrubs. I'm gonna have 43. I'm just, I'm gonna just ice this game myself. This is what SGA does over and over again. SGA had, what did he have, 55 against Utah? Over and over again, he's just like dusting teams. And Tatum, as good as he is, night after night after night, and the best thing about him is how consistent he is as a two-way guy. He's, he's just not a, I'm just gonna dust the other team and, and just get on my back everybody guy.

• 18:02Bill Simmons?

  So it's the collective shit that has to make this team special. And if Jalen's not quite where he was last year, if White's not quite where he was last year, if Holiday's a little older, if Horford's a little older, if you're, if you're moving Porzingis back in, the only guy who's gone up a level is Pritchard. And then on top of it, the league's better. The West is better, OKC's better, Cleveland's better, the Knicks are better. You know, it's just, everybody's deeper. It's a lot harder. You don't have 11 teams tanking yet. And you have nights like you lose to Toronto because, you know, you fucked around. So when I think about like the trade deadline coming, and also it's not just the trade deadline, but the team is being sold,

• 18:46Bill Simmons?

  like the bids we're in today to get through the first round, there's at least five bidders. Everyone's expecting this to go to 6 billion. There's some instability within the organization, which is understandable because they're about to change hands from this great ownership and this great infrastructure they've had for the last almost 20-plus years to the unknown. So you have an organization that's a little more unstable than it was. You have a team that's not quite as stable as it was. The team I saw tonight against the Lakers, like I'd, the thing, this is the thing that concerns me the most. The camaraderie slash connection with the guys doesn't seem the same right now.

• 19:30Bill Simmons?

  And it might just be like, oh, they're like an older married couple that, you know, they've, they've done this, they've been together, they don't need to do it. But there's a lot of plays where it's just five guys on the court, like when, you know, they're shooting foul shots. So five guys on the court who just seem like they're not connected in any way. There's plays where like somebody makes a shot and gets fouled and it's gonna be a three-point play and not all the guys come over and do the fist bump with them. It's little tiny stuff like that. It's the way the bench is reacting to certain things on the game, not the same as last year. Last year, the bench standing up, going nuts. The, uh, the personality of the team, you could just feel it. And you're in the building, when you're on TV, you don't feel it in the same way this year. And the Clipper game yesterday, uh, Jaden Springer, because he, you know, out of nowhere,

• 20:13Bill Simmons?

  and everybody likes him, and he just had an awesome game. He was great. He swung the game for them. And it really kind of ignited the bench. The bench was into it. They were psyched for him. He made a big three in the corner when Harden was like talking shit to him as he shot it and he made it and he ran off and they were all going nuts. And then tonight in this Laker game, it just felt like they all just wanted to go home. So, um, I'm both concerned and not concerned because I still don't know if there's three teams better than them. Um, I don't think there's three teams more talented than them and I think they should, you know, there's, there's no real reason that I can see that they can't make the finals again. But the way this is going, they're not gonna have the one seed in the East and they're

• 20:55Bill Simmons?

  not gonna have, they're not gonna have a home court advantage in the finals if OKC gets in and maybe even a couple other teams. Like now you're looking at a situation where maybe even Denver can finish with a better record than them. So this is a question and this is what makes trying to go back to back so great. And we've seen so many teams try to do it and not be able to do it. And there's always reasons for it. You always hit a point like this where you have to look in the mirror and decide, do we really want to defend our title or not? And what I'm seeing lately with the Celtics is a team that, um, seems like a zombie version of itself that doesn't seem to have that same chip on its shoulder, that doesn't seem to be treating. A back to back title as a life or death experience for them.

• 21:40Bill Simmons?

  They're just, there's too many games now where the other team's playing harder than them. And too many games when they're not solving issues that are pretty obvious as you're watching. Like tonight, like just take out Reeves, just play hard defense on LeBron. Guard him full court. Just make sure you're not giving up open threes to people like Hachimura. This is, that's another thing with the Celtics team, the open threes that they're giving up this year. Like it makes you want to rip your hair out. So again, it's not even February yet. A million things can change. One thing I'm looking for the rest of the way, and this is what I'll leave you with, is they have to have a win streak at some point.

• 22:19Bill Simmons?

  You have to put together three, four weeks of winning basketball night after night after night, where there seems like there's something special about your team. Even Dallas last year. And Dallas, you know, was an unexpected party crasher that made the finals. But Dallas had the stretch after the All-Star break where for 25 games, they just were kicking ass and playing really well. The Celtics have not had a real stretch like that since the start of the season. And as this regular season goes on, they're not going to do that. And this just becomes a night to night, I don't know what I'm getting from these guys situation.

• 23:00Bill Simmons?

  It's, I don't think they're going to make the finals. So it's not urgent yet, but I'm flagging it. I didn't like what I saw the last two nights. One of those two games should have been good, neither of them were. And honestly, they should have lost both games. So we'll see, this is a nice test for Joe Missoula. This is a nice test for the roster, whether they want to tinker around it, maybe get a little more athletic, especially on the wing. It feels like they're an athletic wing short. And then Jaylen Brown is the guy to watch going forward. What are, what are his numbers? What is his impact? Can he be the one B again? Because right now he's not, he's a two, he's not a one B. And if he's a two, the ceiling of the Celtics team has to drop a little bit.

• 23:45Bill Simmons?

  I like what I've seen from Porzingis. I think the pedigree of this team is going to be there when it actually matters. They're going to have a home court when it actually matters. There's going to be a good crowd for them.

• 23:57Bill Simmons?

  But it's pretty alarming because the Lakers crushed them tonight and I don't think the Lakers are good. So that was my takeaway was, uh oh, this says way more about the Celtics than it does about the Lakers. Anyway, we're gonna take a break and bring back Todd McShay.

• 24:15Bill Simmons?

  The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. From the first whistle to the final drive, FanDuel takes the NFL playoffs to the next level. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get 300 bucks in bonus bets if you win. That's $300 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet. The FanDuel app gives you everything you need for live bets, same game parlays, so much more. Plus, when you win, you'll get paid instantly. Just visit FanDuel.com/BS to join today and get started with $300 in bonus bets. That's FanDuel.com/BS, my initials. Make the playoff season unforgettable with FanDuel, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. You must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC. First online real money wager, only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as

• 24:58Bill Simmons?

  non-withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Workday. Guessing is for game shows, not your business, especially when your margin for error is zero. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance, and IT with a deep understanding of your organization's context and guardrails. So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24/7 and the ability to not just get work done, but get it done right. It's a new Workday. All right, taping this early Thursday afternoon Pacific time. Todd McShay is here. I hope

• 25:41Bill Simmons?

  you've been listening to the McShay Show, which we've had on The Ringer for the last couple of months during a very action-packed college football season. Lots to get to. First of all, welcome to The Ringer belatedly. Great to have you on the pod.

• 25:52Speaker 01

  Yeah, man, it's been fun. I appreciate it. Appreciate you, your support and all of it. And we're having a good time. It's been a whole different world, right? Like, I didn't know anything about this world, but we've, we've enjoyed it. And now we're kind of turning the page. We have the NFL playoffs and then the NFL draft. And so we're kind of hitting our sweet spot.

• 26:12Bill Simmons?

  Well, I have a vested interest in this draft, which we'll get to later. Did the right team win the college football championship?

• 26:17Speaker 01

  Yeah, they did. And it's, what's wild, too, is like, all the complaints about the 12-team playoff and... All the adjustments we have to make and the seeding's a mess and it should never be conference champions, but at the end of the day, Ohio State wouldn't have been in it in the previous, you know, four team playoff structure and Ohio State was clearly the best team and, and it took them going on a run. The Michigan loss is a Michigan thing for Ohio State. It's not reflective of, of the, the program and what they are. I mean, that's, that's almost a headspace that they're going to have to, have to deal with, but, um, but that was the best team and, and it was, everyone talked about, well, they bought a $20 million roster. Well, they just used a lot of that 20 million to keep the guys there that were

• 27:02Speaker 01

  there on the defensive side. And, and yeah, they added a running back and Quinshon Judkins and, and their quarterback, Will Howard was a really good fit for what they do. Um, but ultimately the vast majority of that team was there and they just kept a lot of guys from going in the NFL and having to take pay cuts to do so.

• 27:18Bill Simmons?

  Right. Wait, you know, you were one of the rare college and NFL guys. Russillo's like this too. There's a few of them. Gun to your head, which one do you like more? Like if you, if you could only be stuck with one for the rest of your life, which one would you pick?

• 27:33Speaker 01

  Gun to head, I would say college football.

• 27:35Bill Simmons?

  Okay. So why, why college football? What is it?

• 27:38Speaker 01

  It's, it's the, I guess I grew up on it. Like my grandfather worked with Bo Schembechler and, and I like going out, I grew up in, in, in Boston, outside of Boston, Swanscott, small town north of Boston. But he had worked, he lived in, in Ohio and, and helped the recruiting area of Northeast Ohio. And, um, and so I was around that, around that Michigan program and kind of just understood like, you always feel like the pageantry and, but it's like just how important that is. And it was weird growing up here, right? Cause like it's all pro sports here in New England, all pro sports.

• 28:13Bill Simmons?

  Except for the one flutie run. We had that little flutie intersection and that was about it for, for college football.

• 28:19Speaker 01

  Right. And so just being around that, I kind of was introduced to something that was different than what we grew up around, you know, living in this area. So I don't know. I just have always loved like going to games and the tailgating and how important it is and the flags flying as you're driving through a town and the, the crowd and the atmosphere. It's just home to me. It, it really is. But the personnel part, like I just, I became obsessed with in my twenties when I started in this business. Just evaluating, or which of these guys can actually go play at the next level? And building a roster. So that's kind of how it all developed for me.

• 28:56Bill Simmons?

  Well, so last year, we had these three quarterbacks and it was so much fun to talk about them. And everybody kind of agreed, ceiling wise, Caleb has to be first. That was like what everybody came away with. This guy, he's Mahomes-ish. There's some leadership stuff potentially. There's some immaturity stuff. But he's got to be the pick. And yet there were some other people like, ah, Chick May is a little Josh Allen-y. And then Jayden Daniels was the other one. And the reason people seem to be down on Daniels was the frame. Could he be durable enough? Could he handle it? But then everybody was pointing to last year and saying, this guy was amazing last year. Like, if this guy can do in the pros what he did in college, this guy is going to be an amazing quarterback and durability is question.

• 29:41Bill Simmons?

  Did this exceed what you even thought? Like whatever you had as a ceiling for Daniels coming in, what's happened this year? Did you see any version of this happening?

• 29:49Speaker 01

  Not this version, man. I mean,

• 29:53Speaker 01

  I'll go back to what I said last year before the draft. If you're dropped on this planet and you could only base your evaluation off of one year of tape, like the 2023 season. Jayden Daniels was clearly the better prospect, right?

• 30:08Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 30:08Speaker 01

  But, but throughout the process, there was Jayden Daniels at Arizona State, which was kind of this running around backyard football, all about his legs. Occasionally he'd pop a pass down the field. And then he got to LSU. And even early on there, like I remember being on the field with Brian Kelly before the, the Tennessee game, okay? And Tennessee came in, big favorites, and they wound up blowing out LSU in that game. But I remember being on the field with him and watching Jaden and having watched his tape and just saying like, what do you see in practice that I'm not seeing? Because it looks like he can make all the throws, but he just doesn't seem to trust it. And the anticipation isn't there and all that. And he said, he said, watch the first play of this game.

• 30:54Speaker 01

  Just watch because it, we're forcing him to make this throw. I'm not going to tell you where it's going, but we're going to force him to make this throw. Because we're trying to prove to him that if you just trust your read and your eyes and you get the ball out on time, you're special. You're different than anything we've been around or seen. And so the first play of the game comes and of course I'm on the sideline like peeking over and it's a it's a deep comeback route to the left to the left side. And he gets back top of his drop and just rips it. And if it gets picked, it's a pick six. And at that point, he hadn't thrown an interception. And everyone in in the local media was just, oh, this Jayden Daniels is great. He hasn't thrown an interception through five games. How good has he been? And Brian's point was like, I can't wait for him to throw an interception.

• 31:39Speaker 01

  Like it's driving me fucking crazy.

• 31:42Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 31:42Speaker 01

  The media is talking about the interception thing, but the reason he's not trusting is he's so concerned about throwing a pick. So anyway, ball comes out, perfect throw, right on time, completion. And you saw it there, like that was like the first step in his confidence of like, you know what? If I trust what I'm seeing and my instincts, I can build from here. And he just kept getting better. And then the following season was 2023 and he just took off.

• 32:07Bill Simmons?

  It's funny that we've, and you know, I'm in my mid 50s now and it still doesn't feel like we've figured out a valuation of like the best basketball prospects, quarterbacks. I think when we get to like, you know, like Abdul Carter pass rushers, we have a pretty good sense of like, yeah, this guy's probably going to come in and be really good. But the quarterback thing, so much of it seems to depend on situation, what your college experience was. Where are you going into, who your coach is when you get there the first couple of years? And I think of like the situation Daniels was in versus what Drake May was in where he was like F minus offensive line. No receivers, the worst coaches possible. And he's just running for his life for four quarters.

• 32:46Bill Simmons?

  And then Daniels, who had kind of an overqualified offensive coordinator, a good head coach, a lot of veterans around him, a team that trusted him. He had five years in college and all that led to like something really good. But then he got hurt, what, five weeks, six weeks in, he took a hit. Didn't seem like he was the same for five. And it's like, well, this is why we were a little nervous. Could his body hold up? Now I'm thinking about picking them to beat the Eagles. And he like, he looks that good compared to what we're watching. And I want to talk to you about what's going on with Hertz too. But it does feel realistic that he could just win three straight playoff games in a row. And I, I don't like what for a rookie quarterback to do that, is that inconceivable to you?

• 33:29Speaker 01

  It is inconceivable because history says it doesn't like it's it's almost impossible to happen, right?

• 33:35Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 33:36Speaker 01

  Like what he's doing now, Bill, is it's so far beyond what you you can that it's that you're allowed to expect from a rookie quarterback. Like I went back and looked, right? Like no rookie quarterback has ever led his team to a Super Bowl, right?

• 33:51Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 33:52Speaker 01

  There have been five others who have led led their team to a conference championship. And I want to I want to rip off these names for you. Shaun King.

• 34:02Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 34:03Speaker 01

  Ben Roethlisberger, and I want you to think back like when they actually were rookies.

• 34:07Bill Simmons?

  His game manager, Ben Roethlisberger.

• 34:09Speaker 01

  Correct. Joe Flacco, same deal. Mark Sanchez, Brock Purdy. Now I want you to think about what we just saw last week. And then there's a whole other list of guys in their second year, six of them since 2000 have actually in their second years quarterbacks have led their teams to a Super Bowl. Brady, Roethlisberger, Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, and Purdy. I would say of that group, Burrow probably carried more of the offensive load on his shoulders than any of those other guys. And even Brady back then, we were protecting Brady. You know, it was all about.

• 34:44Bill Simmons?

  Brady wasn't close to Brady in 2001 now.

• 34:47Speaker 01

  And so then you think about what what Jaden's doing and under pressure and not just beating the pressure with his legs, but with his arm. And then you think about like the vast majority of the run plays too. I think this kind of goes unnoticed. In the NFL, with how quick the defenses are and how fast the action of play is, he's having to make reads in the run game too, with his own read option and all the the possibilities there. So every snap, he is making decisions that a rookie quarterback usually doesn't have to have that much load put on them. And he's doing it at such a ridiculous level. That's why this is by far, I think by far in my lifetime, the best rookie quarterback performance I've ever seen.

• 35:31Speaker 01

  And CJ Stroud, it was awesome, but this is different, man. And and the supporting cast is not to the level that that it should be for a rookie quarterback to have this success. And honestly.

• 35:44Speaker 01

  I like Washington. I'm gonna go with them.

• 35:48Bill Simmons?

  I think I am too.

• 35:49Speaker 01

  I think something special is happening. And I trust, here's the weird part, I trust him more than I trust Jalen Hurts.

• 35:56Bill Simmons?

  So that's, I have this playoff manifesto with all these rules and one of the rules is, you really gotta look at the quarterbacks. Look at both sides. Imagine betting on the game and just going down the four quarters with each guy. And I, I want to talk about Hertz in a second because the stuff that's going on with him is alarming. And there were some really good videos and pieces about it in the last week. The Daniels piece, the only, you listed, we talked about this last week on my pod, just like the Brady 2001 and Mahomes, his first full year. And I think the Mahomes, his first full year is the only real comparison that I can remember.

• 36:30Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 36:31Bill Simmons?

  I, I honestly with Marino, who was amazing, but you know, we, in the mid eighties, he was probably on TV three times. Where we had football, I can't say I was like a Dan Marino expert. He would play the Pats or the Jets and you would get one of those games, maybe.

• 36:47Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 36:48Bill Simmons?

  But Mahomes, we were there for. And he was good enough to win the Super Bowl that year and they got really lucky. Like the D. Ford's jumped off sides or the Pat, or Brady throws an interception, the Pats lose that game. Mahomes would have gone in the Super Bowl that year. Burrow's another one that I think felt like he was arrived and ready to go and he was going to be in our lives for the next 15 years. And I just think Daniels hit that point even before the Detroit game. It was just clear he was going to be in our lives. The, the part that was amazing to me is that it felt like Detroit could have run for 10 yards a carry. I'm sure they're looking at the tape going, how did we lose that game?

• 37:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 37:22Bill Simmons?

  That, how did we ever not score a touchdown every time we had the ball? So now I look at Philly and it's like, all right, are they just going to rush for 300 yards? Maybe Hertz doesn't have to do anything. But I don't, I don't like trusting QBs who are playing like shit. And he's playing like shit.

• 37:40Speaker 01

  He is. It's going to be interesting. Like, I don't want to go too deep in the, in the mud, but like.

• 37:45Bill Simmons?

  Please do. We're here to go in the mud.

• 37:48Speaker 01

  Philly, Philly lives on first down, running the football.

• 37:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 37:52Speaker 01

  They, I think I've read like 71% of the time on first down, they've run the football in the postseason. And it was damn near that close in, in the regular season. It's all about staying on schedule. And I think in part because they don't trust their quarterback. Right?

• 38:06Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 38:07Speaker 01

  Because if we're in third, they're, they're one for 11 on third down conversions in the postseason when it's third and seven or longer. What does that tell you? You know what I mean?

• 38:17Bill Simmons?

  How about the explosive plays he's missed in the two games?

• 38:20Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 38:21Bill Simmons?

  Where he's had AJ open deep and just like either threw it out of bounds or was late on the throw. That safety he took against the Rams in the second half was one of the worst quarterback plays of the year. It was unbelievable that, that happened. That's what would happen if, you know, if it's like somebody who's replacing Deshaun Watson on the Browns, like that kind of level quarterback. This Jalen Hurts has been to a Super Bowl, like the one thing, and the other time when he knocked them out of field goal range because he took a sack. Like this is like basic QB shit. Like, don't, don't make your situation worse. Like just get out of it. He can't even seem to do that. So, and I think the Eagle fans are really aware of it, but also feel like they can rush for 330 yards on Sunday.

• 39:01Speaker 01

  Right. And they could. I mean, they, they could. But I also, like, Washington has gotten to the point where they're one, one of the top teams in, in the NFL, the last like second half of the season. And in the postseason with a run blitz on first down. So like it could become a war of, all right, when does Philly take a chance? Play action first down and can Jay, can Jalen cash in?

• 39:21Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 39:22Speaker 01

  You know, and, and again, if you're betting on Jalen, is that the bet you want to make?

• 39:28Bill Simmons?

  Well, so if you're making the case for Washington, and I think I'm going to make it when I do million dollar picks.

• 39:33Speaker 01

  What's the spread in that game, by the way? Is it eight?

• 39:35Bill Simmons?

  It's up to six and a half. Yeah. And it'll probably be seven. Who knows? But. You figure it'd be the same recipe at the against Detroit where each side's gonna have seven possessions. We're gonna take our time. We're gonna move the ball down the field. Every fourth and two, fourth and three, we're going for it. We're gonna complete 70% of our passes. The clock's gonna be moving, moving, moving. We'll hang around. Maybe we're up 10-7 in the second quarter. Philly has a turnover. Now we have the ball again. Now we're, now it's 17-7, 13. Now Hertz has to start making plays.

• 40:06Speaker 01

  Right.

• 40:07Bill Simmons?

  And that's their scenario to win the game, which is very similar to the Detroit scenario. The Eagles scenario is just, we're up 10-0. We're running the ball. We're chewing up clock. Daniels comes out. We get like one stop. We rush through the middle. We get, and now all of a sudden it's 13-0. And now we can just run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, play action. We're home. So I see the two sides. I just feel more comfortable with the Daniels side.

• 40:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, especially with that number, you know?

• 40:35Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, cuz it feels like either team can win the game. So if that's the case,

• 40:38Speaker 01

  Correct.

• 40:39Bill Simmons?

  I'd rather just take the six and a half.

• 40:42Speaker 01

  I'd love to see Washington jump them early.

• 40:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 40:45Speaker 01

  You know, a quick strike early in the game, kind of knock Philly back on its heels. Yeah, I, I, I just think momentum's crazy. Confidence is, is like, is so much of this. And we've, we've lived through it our whole lifetime. Like when teams get on a run, forget the seeds, forget the, the Vegas spreads. Like, there's something about that momentum and like the belief in what we're doing. And it just feels like Washington has that. Now, again, they could walk into a buzzsaw. Philly jump, gets out and has a big play early on. And now, now they can run the football and they get a lead. But, but I just, I, I don't know. Something special is happening, happening in Washington. And I don't want to be on the other side of it anymore.

• 41:29Bill Simmons?

  Well, were you in Massachusetts during the 0-1 Pats run?

• 41:33Speaker 01

  Uh, oh, one.

• 41:35Bill Simmons?

  The first Super Bowl.

• 41:36Speaker 01

  Yes, I just moved back from New York. I lived in New York. I went to school in Richmond, lived in New York for two years. I came back just honestly, I think five, six months before. So I was there for the whole run.

• 41:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it felt like, and it was a little similar where it was an out of nowhere thing. It seemed improbable. They were big underdogs each and they were even bigger underdogs than Washington is. And the snow game was the one that officially flipped the narrative. It's like, wait, what's going on here? And then they went into Pittsburgh. They got, you know, a couple of special teams plays. There was some Pittsburgh turnovers and it was just chip on their shoulder. The only people that believe in us are in this locker room. And Washington definitely has some of that. I think the difference is Daniels was just way ahead of where Brady was. Brady, game manager, really smart, didn't turn the ball over, but wasn't, he wasn't really Brady until I think 2005, six range. When they really started leaning on him.

• 42:29Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 42:30Bill Simmons?

  This Daniels thing to, to lean on a rookie where he's basically, the offense is hinging on him. It's pretty unusual. I will say though, Eckler being back and them having two running backs now and just those like, it just feels like they can run the ball a little bit.

• 42:45Speaker 01

  And Eckler looked like he had juice, right?

• 42:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, no question.

• 42:48Speaker 01

  Like a couple of years ago, like, you know, when he was, when he was in his, I don't want to say prime, but when he was at his peak, it kind of, a couple of his runs, I was like, oh shit, like Eckler's back.

• 43:00Bill Simmons?

  Right. Well, I, we were talking last week when we were on the show and we were trying to figure out could Washington win this game? They had a really weird season where they looked really good the first few weeks. Then they had Daniels got hurt, had a couple of injuries, they had the hail Mary game was lucky. And they kind of like, they didn't, weren't stumbling through the middle of the season, but they looked like they were like a rabbit team. The team that looks good for the first two, two and a half months. But then like the last month of the season, they kind of went back to where they were in September. And then it just kept going and going and going. So you could think that, you could also think they easily could have lost to Tampa if Tampa just converts a second and one and makes three more plays and is up four with two minutes left. Um, but I'm with you. Like sometimes with football.

• 43:45Bill Simmons?

  You get this momentum that's going. I guess the question for me on the, in the other conferences, does Buffalo have that too? Where Buffalo has had, like the turnover stats with them are nuts. Where they've never had a game where they've had more turnovers than the other team the whole season. Everyone else has done that as well in the Super Bowl. The game last week, it did, they just have a habit of the other team just shoots themselves in the foot as they're playing them. So I wonder like, maybe it could be a Buffalo Washington. Yeah, you should have seen this all along. This is, but this is what we've done all year. Why didn't you believe in us?

• 44:21Speaker 01

  The Josh Allen thing, like it's his time.

• 44:24Bill Simmons?

  Oh, you're going there because I think I'm picking KC.

• 44:27Speaker 01

  Good, good. I want everyone else to. And you know what? Like, it's like, it's kind of like when your mom says to your kid, like, how many times you're going to burn your hand on the stove? Or how many times?

• 44:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 44:37Speaker 01

  You have, and, and as life went on, like I think I've come to realize like I'm going to be the one who's going to burn my hand more, you know?

• 44:44Bill Simmons?

  Going against the Chiefs, you mean?

• 44:45Speaker 01

  Yeah. And so maybe it's a me thing, but, but I don't know. Here's what, the tangible thing that I think is different is the turnover aspect for, for Josh Allen. I also, I talked about this with our guy, Ryan, so.

• 45:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 45:01Speaker 01

  Right after it happened. What was it? Week 11? Was it, um, Kansas City, Buffalo?

• 45:06Bill Simmons?

  Right. 30-21, they beat them.

• 45:08Speaker 01

  I remember watching that game and waiting to see, because they were up four. Buffalo was up four. It's like every time an opponent has, has a lead over Kansas City in the fourth quarter, they get, there's always like that middle of the fourth quarter, or like a little bit past the midpoint of the fourth quarter, they get a drive, the opponent does. And, and there's some level of conservative play, whether it's playing for a field goal, whether it's, it's dialing it back, not, not being aggressive. The mentality has to be, we're down four. And that's what Buffalo did. It was, they, they've lost three games to them in the playoffs. They've, they've found out, found ways to lose. They've had games pulled away from them, all of it.

• 45:54Speaker 01

  I saw the kind of the, the switch in the mentality in that, in that week 11 game. Where are, we've got the ball. I forget exactly when they got it. Maybe like six, seven minutes left in the fourth quarter. They're down by four, but if you didn't know the score, you'd say, oh, they're, I'm sorry, they're up by four. But you, if you didn't know the score, you would have said they're down by four points in this game. Cause it's not, not by three, no, no, they're down by four is the mentality they had because they had to score a touchdown. And, and they drove the field. They went forward on fourth downs. They were aggressive the entire time and they put the game away. Cause what teams do all the time in that fourth quarter drive is they take for granted, like it's, it's assumed.

• 46:36Speaker 01

  It absolutely has to be assumed that when Mahomes gets the ball, they're going to, it doesn't matter how much time's left. They're going to score and they're going to score a touchdown.

• 46:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 46:44Speaker 01

  So if you play with that math and it, so like it was important for that game, but I also think it showed that the Bills get it. They get that we can't turn the ball over. We can't give them extra possessions. And in the fourth quarter, we are full, like full steam ahead, most important drive to save our season, even if we have a lead. And I just think the way Josh is playing, I, I think this is this, we're witnessing the best of Josh Allen in this moment. And the best of one of the most talented players to ever play the position has got to be good enough eventually. Right?

• 47:20Bill Simmons?

  And this Are there Manning Brady mid 2000s parallels for you with this? When it seemed like Manning couldn't get over the hump against the Pats and then finally was able to do it in the AFC title game? After had a regular season win, but then he had to do it in the playoffs and he finally did it.

• 47:34Speaker 01

  Absolutely.

• 47:35Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 47:36Speaker 01

  Yeah. I, like it's impossible to, to say I'm confident or I have any confidence in it with Mahomes and we know what they do. And, and like every good, good organization, they got their quarterback and they have drafted defense after defense after defense. And if you put a great defense on the field, which is what has been Brett Veach, their GM and Andy Reid, their philosophy. Like the second they got Mahomes and realized he was the guy, if you go back and study their drafts, it's like four of the first six picks defense. Three of the first four, five of the first seven, six in a row defense. And they've loaded up on that side because the quarterback's going to take care of all the, all the problems on the offensive side.

• 48:15Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 48:16Speaker 01

  So we got to have a great defense because we don't have, we don't have a fixer on that side. And so that's, that's how they built this whole thing. And so, but I look at Buffalo and Buffalo, like defensively, they're not as, as great as, as Kansas City is, but they've done a lot of the same things. They, they've sacrificed their offensive playmakers for, for their defensive talent. I think they're better up front in the defense than they maybe have been in previous matchups. I just, I don't know. I think it's their time.

• 48:43Bill Simmons?

  So I was thinking about, I should have said this on the pod we did Sunday night after the game. I blew it. They, there was 93 seconds left when they went for the two point. And if Andrews catches it, it's 2027, 27, 27, and we left the game on, oh my God, he dropped it. He blew the game for them. Joshua had the ball with like enough time to go 40, 45 yards and set up some sort of field goal. And I almost wonder if that would have been a better outcome for the Bills as we think about the, the game going forward. Like instead of how they won it, where the narrative after the game becomes, oh my God, Baltimore, Lamar, he didn't come through in the first half and Andrews fumble and drops the two. And it was like Baltimore blew it, Baltimore blew it, Baltimore blew it.

• 49:28Bill Simmons?

  If Allen had just come down and gotten the game winning field goal or whatever in those last 93 seconds, I feel like we'd be talking about this Chiefs game differently. And by the way, he probably would have.

• 49:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, but I think Buffalo almost wants it that way. Right?

• 49:40Bill Simmons?

  Right. They do seem like they're a chip on the shoulder. They were doing a lot of, nobody believed in us. I think they knew what the line was. I thought Baltimore was the best team in the league and I still kind of feel that way. Like I don't regret picking them last week. They lost, but uh, I, I just thought they were really good and they, all the errors were self inflicted. The one, the punch out on the Andrews fumble was, that was a great play by Buffalo.

• 50:04Speaker 01

  Yep, that was.

• 50:05Bill Simmons?

  The two mistakes in the first half by Lamar were terrible plays by him.

• 50:09Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 50:11Speaker 01

  He's good for those in, in these moments. That's been the problem.

• 50:15Bill Simmons?

  That's been the problem.

• 50:16Speaker 01

  That has been the problem.

• 50:17Bill Simmons?

  And for, for Allen, you know, it's fun when a quarterback gets to this point. And we've seen it throughout the course of history where they kinda ha- he kinda has to win this year.

• 50:29Speaker 01

  He has to win this game.

• 50:31Bill Simmons?

  Like this is like the season. This is like, this is, this happens in basketball too. You have a season where a lot of stuff align. This is it. I just really like the Chiefs. I still think they're really good. I don't feel like, with the team that they were in the first 12, 13 weeks, I think they've solved some of those issues. They're a little more explosive than they were in September, October, November. They can run the ball a little better. I still believe in them at home. I just think they're so hard to beat.

• 50:54Speaker 01

  Kelsey's the whole deal. Kelsey's the whole, he's the whole deal in this game. If you go back and look, like he, he clearly has not been the player this year that he has been in, in the past.

• 51:05Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 51:05Speaker 01

  But you go back and look at those wins, the three times that the, uh, the Chiefs have beaten the Bills. He's averaged nine catches per game, 96 yards and almost two, two touchdowns in those three games, right? The week 11 game that we were talking to, I want to see it two catches for eight yards.

• 51:24Bill Simmons?

  Well, they keep him in the garage during the regular season now.

• 51:27Speaker 01

  No, I get that. I get that.

• 51:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. They put the cover over him. They put the, him in the heated garage with.

• 51:31Speaker 01

  Especially this year when he was, is not, and I, you know, I took a lot of heat for it, but I, I know I'm right. Like he was not in the shape that he's been in, in a lot of other years. It just wasn't like.

• 51:40Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 51:40Speaker 01

  There. So they were like, they were getting him to this point. An awesome game with 117, right? Last week? So. Terrell Bernard did an amazing job in coverage on him. So that's going to be the matchup you want to watch in this game. The linebacker for the Bills, the first time around. He also had the interception in that game.

• 52:00Bill Simmons?

  But they have some secondary issues this game. There's some guys who may, may not play and, and their secondary was already not incredible to begin with.

• 52:07Speaker 01

  Yeah. So I mean, that to me, because, because when Mahomes gets in these games and these types of situations, like it's cute that we've got a burner and Xavier Worthy's here.

• 52:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 52:17Speaker 01

  And we, you know, like all this, all these other bells and whistles and all the things we want, but he's going to rely on himself.

• 52:25Speaker 01

  And Travis, I mean, it's been proven.

• 52:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 52:28Speaker 01

  He would rather, he would rather extend a play and dance around and do some things and wait for Kelsey to find a soft spot versus in those moments, in the big moments, if you really watch it, he'll turn down opportunities with other guys and say, I can create a little longer, I'm going to wait for Travis because we have to, when he has to have it, that's what he tends to do. So I think, I think Kelsey is going to be the, the key to this game. And not, I know it's not breaking news, but like he, I think we kind of got lulled to sleep. Well, they, you know, they're winning games and Travis hasn't been huge this year. But the.

• 53:03Bill Simmons?

  No, they wanted three games from him. That was it. I think that was the deal before the season. Are you be ready for the three games at the end of the season?

• 53:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 53:10Bill Simmons?

  Are you going to be a nine for 99 with a touchdown each, each game? Let's, uh, we'll take a break. I want to keep talking quarterbacks.

• 53:22Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes. Yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association, Member, FDIC. All right. My guy, Drake May. I know you've been watching him. I just got a shoehorn

• 54:07Bill Simmons?

  just because you're here. I got a shoe and shoehorn three minutes of content. So I'm on a lot of Pat's text threads. We watched what happened with Washington this year. Where very similar to the Pats right now where they had, they drafted the franchise QB. They brought in a new coach. They brought in new leadership. They made a bunch of smart free agent signings. They did well in the draft and they just basically patched together a playoff team that now has a legitimate chance to make the Super Bowl and it'll happen in a year. The Pats, they have May. So you think like, think of last year's May season as like Daniels at LSU, basically. Like that kind of same thing. Now he's going to have his first real season, hopefully with a, on a real professional team. Easy schedule. They have a ton of cap space.

• 54:49Speaker 01

  The most in the league.

• 54:52Bill Simmons?

  I assume they're going to spend money. The crafts really haven't spent money the last 10 years, but we'll see if they do it this year. Fourth pick in the draft, top of every draft going, going down. They have two third round picks. Like, why can't this be them next year? What are the reasons that can't happen?

• 55:10Speaker 01

  I mean, what Jaden has done is unbelievably unique and special, but it's Drake's second year and he has shown. He's, he's different. That last year's quarterback class, man, when you go back and look at it and I, I'm just excited to see it develop. But like Pennix looked pretty good. Bo Nix, Bo Nix, there's a cap on Bo Nix.

• 55:30Bill Simmons?

  But he's, he's definitely an average to above average starter.

• 55:34Speaker 01

  Yeah. And it's the perfect situation for him.

• 55:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 55:37Speaker 01

  With Sean. But the whole group, you know, and, and now Ben Johnson comes to Chicago and, and you know, that's a whole different conversation. They're set up for that kind of success. I'm not saying make a Super Bowl run, but they are set up to be a surprise.

• 55:52Bill Simmons?

  To maybe be a 10 win team.

• 55:54Speaker 01

  To be a surprise playoff team next year from this, you know, from a team that, that was a game away from having the first overall pick. To make, maybe potentially making a run. They, here's the hard part. I just talked about. The defense and Vrabel certainly will will have his finger on the pulse and make the final decisions, but he will be pushing towards building a great defense with a with a great young quarterback.

• 56:19Bill Simmons?

  I figured he'll do the Lions, right? He'll be like, let's start with the Lions and we'll build out from both sides of the line of scrimmage.

• 56:25Speaker 01

  And we'll pluck a receiver here. We'll grab a retread running back there and we don't need to put a ton of money in that right away unless they go out and get one of the, you know, the top free agents or make a trade at wide receiver. I don't even know that that's going to be their MO, but we'll see. But at the end of the day, like what we saw from Drake May was all you needed to see to have be resuscitated as a Patriots fan. Like there's, they have two assets in the entire organization. I said it. It's Drake May and Gonzalez at cornerback.

• 56:55Bill Simmons?

  And Vrabel now, now we have three assets.

• 56:57Speaker 01

  No, I'm saying before, before the move, before they they changed over, like they had two, two assets and I was screaming, protect your assets. Don't play them in that final game. They shouldn't. You and I were texting. They should never have had the coach coached that game. Gerard Mayo should never have been in that position, but here we are. Now you've got the fourth pick and it's not all going to come down to the fourth overall pick. You know, if Abdul Carter was to fall to him before, it would be, I don't want to say a miracle, but the odds are it's not going to happen.

• 57:27Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 57:28Speaker 01

  They, they desperately, in my opinion, need one of the quarterbacks to fall to them. Cam Ward or.

• 57:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So let's talk about that because right now it's a three player draft unless Sanders can move up and get people excited and whet people's appetite and make it a four. Cause it seems like Ward's higher than Sanders and then Carter and Hunter. But right now it's a three player draft, drop off, people start arguing who the fourth pick should be, which is bad for the Pats, I think.

• 57:57Speaker 01

  Yes and no, because you're sitting there for Tennessee has a quarterback need. Cleveland has a quarterback need and Giants have a quarterback need.

• 58:03Bill Simmons?

  Tennessee said they're taking the best guy. They'd said like, now who knows?

• 58:06Speaker 01

  Come on, Bill. Bill, how long have you been in this game? I'm not saying that they won't, and maybe eventually they will. But, but since when is a team come out with the, the, the.

• 58:18Bill Simmons?

  In mid-January?

• 58:20Speaker 01

  And said, if it's a generational talent, we're gonna say.

• 58:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, okay.

• 58:24Speaker 01

  That's, that's, that's NFL speak for, hey, come and get the pick. If not, we'll, we'll take your guy.

• 58:31Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 58:32Speaker 01

  They want out of that pick, you know, just like the Patriots would have wanted out of that pick. Cause they realize they're, the, there is no Drake May in this class. There's no Jayden Daniels in this class. There's no Caleb Williams in this class, right? So, so let's try to get out of this pick and let's build it like the rest, like Detroit had built it. Like the Eagles have built it, like San Francisco did. Like, you know, the Ravens continue to do. All the organizations building on defense and offensive lines, right? And so I think Tennessee's gonna try to fall in that, in those footsteps and, and try to follow the, the blueprint. And try to get out of that pick and get more picks in the draft where, yeah, those are the top three and they're, they're elite players.

• 59:15Speaker 01

  But even in recent drafts, you could say there's better at those individual positions.

• 59:20Bill Simmons?

  So, but usually the quarterbacks drift up.

• 59:23Speaker 01

  And they will.

• 59:24Bill Simmons?

  This weird phenomenon that happens and then all of a sudden you've got two guys in the top four. Even though there's been like the Trubisky year was a good example when that happened. The, the more people stare at the list and the quarterbacks and think about how important the position is. All of a sudden you start looking at the strengths instead of the weaknesses of the guys and the guys climb up. So I'd assume that might happen.

• 59:46Speaker 01

  Yeah, I, I, one of two things is gonna happen. Either both the quarterbacks are gonna go to one of those three spots and Abdul Carter will go. And then Travis, Travis Hunter is, is your, is your pick at number four. Unless you can move out of that to get additional picks.

• 1:00:01Bill Simmons?

  Doesn't seem like a variable pick.

• 1:00:03Speaker 01

  It doesn't, right?

• 1:00:04Bill Simmons?

  They need a left tackle. They have to come out of the draft with a left tackle or a pass rusher and that's it. Has to be for the Pats. It has to be one of those two. They need people who can block for Drake May. He's the only asset they have.

• 1:00:15Speaker 01

  So, so, so trade back with Vegas at six or the Jets at seven. You know what I mean? Or, or, or the Saints at nine and.

• 1:00:24Bill Simmons?

  Sure.

• 1:00:25Speaker 01

  And if, if one of those two quarterbacks falls, right?

• 1:00:28Bill Simmons?

  Yep. That would be the dream scenario.

• 1:00:30Speaker 01

  I, I think the worst scenario is. Cam and Shador go in the top three picks and Abdul Carter is gone as well.

• 1:00:39Bill Simmons?

  And now you're staring at Hunter who you don't need.

• 1:00:41Speaker 01

  Who who's a wonderful, he is a generational type talent, but you're only getting him on one side of the ball for the vast majority, right?

• 1:00:50Bill Simmons?

  And you have him as a cornerback, right?

• 1:00:52Speaker 01

  I think he's actually a better wide receiver than he is cornerback. But if you're going to try to play him and get value from him on both sides, you better play him as a cornerback and then put in some packages for him, you know?

• 1:01:05Bill Simmons?

  That's gonna be super fun if somebody decides to do that. I'm just glad that player exists because I remember, you know, after college or even during college when Deion Sanders, when I was in college and Deion had that capability of just coming in and playing series on offense, it was like the most exciting thing. It's like, oh, my God, this is amazing.

• 1:01:26Speaker 01

  I looked, I looked it up like.

• 1:01:27Bill Simmons?

  Wasn't that many plays?

• 1:01:29Speaker 01

  I think he had like 61 receptions as an entire career.

• 1:01:34Bill Simmons?

  Deion did, yeah.

• 1:01:35Speaker 01

  Deion, and that was the most like Champ Bailey had like six. Charles Woodson had like two, you know, like so there's not a, there's not a history of, of someone actually being like consistently, you know, that productive.

• 1:01:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, so last year's draft seems like it was almost a unicorn draft. Like the way we're going to look back at it where there's just star players all throughout the first round, there's all we ended up with five starting quarterbacks. We ended up with potentially two, you know, maybe generational quarterbacks, maybe three if Caleb can get his shit going.

• 1:02:13Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:02:13Bill Simmons?

  And then this year's draft.

• 1:02:14Speaker 01

  We haven't seen anything from JJ yet, who's got arguably the best coach to develop him. Yeah.

• 1:02:20Bill Simmons?

  And then this year's draft, like you look at Cam Ward, you look at Sanders, where did they go in last year's draft with the tape they have and like the grade they have for this season? Are they in that like Penix Knicks level or they JJ level or they below Penix? Like where are they?

• 1:02:36Speaker 01

  I think, I think the conversation starts at four with, with JJ.

• 1:02:41Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:02:42Speaker 01

  There's no conversation with Caleb, Jaden, or Drake.

• 1:02:47Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 1:02:48Speaker 01

  I think it starts at four. Most teams had J.J. McCarthy as the fourth. Some teams were higher on him than others and believed that he was maybe the second or third best quarterback in the class. I didn't, I didn't, I thought he was the fourth best.

• 1:03:04Speaker 01

  I think, see, the interesting part is this. The best pure passer in this draft is Shador. Layers the ball, ball placement, good instincts as a passer, processes things real quickly, doesn't have a great arm, not a very good, the weird part is he's Coach Prime's son. He's not a great athlete. Like, he extends plays, but his instincts in the pocket get him in a lot of trouble.

• 1:03:25Bill Simmons?

  Hmm.

• 1:03:27Speaker 01

  And then you've got Cam, who doesn't, I don't want to say he doesn't process as quickly, but he's been in these systems where he hasn't had to go through all the reads. I don't think he can get himself out of trouble as a rookie in terms of understanding where to go with the ball. He's not as like consistent with his accuracy. He makes more poor, he'll make a play or two a game where you're like, oh no, like Will Levis type shit, right?

• 1:03:49Bill Simmons?

  Oh, no.

• 1:03:50Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:03:51Bill Simmons?

  The Levis word.

• 1:03:53Speaker 01

  But, but he's a better athlete than Shador. He extends plays, his arm angles, the way he's able to get the ball out. He's got a much better arm than Shador. So, traits wise, Cam is the guy if you can develop him. But if you're asking compared to last year's class, I think it may go J.J. McCarthy four.

• 1:04:15Speaker 01

  And then, and then I would say Cam Ward-Pennix, and then Shador, kind of Bo Nix, like, in that range.

• 1:04:23Bill Simmons?

  So if Darnold had been really good down the stretch, and let's say they lost in round two, but he was good in that game and it wasn't his fault, and it turned into a situation, oh, Minnesota should have resigned him. They should actually bring him back and trade J.J. That's a smarter move. You think J.J. has the kind of talent that you could have traded one of the four picks in the top four for J.J. and that's a good trade compared to who's in the draft? Okay.

• 1:04:50Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think so. And I think it probably, it could have happened that way, but I don't know that Minnesota would have even gotten rid of him. I think they would have sat on both. Had he played great down the stretch. It was shaping, I'm, I'm, I'm actually frustrated because it was shaping up to be one of the most fascinating personnel decisions you could ever make.

• 1:05:10Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it was like, like a, like a poor man's young versus Montana type of situation, right? It's like, what do we do? We have two guys.

• 1:05:16Speaker 01

  But the problem is with the salary cap, like you're now preventing your organization from building everywhere else by keeping Sam. But then are you going to gamble? You have this sure thing. If he goes and plays well, like you said, two playoff games, they lose, but he, he's through for 260, 270 and everything was fine.

• 1:05:34Bill Simmons?

  27 years old or whatever he is. It's like, all right, we got a guy.

• 1:05:36Speaker 01

  We got our guy. And so that, that would have been unbelievable to watch. It's amazing what two games did to his value, you know?

• 1:05:44Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Now he's going to be like Giants, Tennessee.

• 1:05:47Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 1:05:48Bill Simmons?

  Some sort of stopgap somewhere else, but.

• 1:05:50Speaker 01

  It'll be interesting to how much, see how much money he lost too.

• 1:05:54Bill Simmons?

  That was the most wrong I've been about anything all season. I, I completely believed by week 17 with the Vikings. I was like, I'm in on this team.

• 1:06:02Speaker 01

  I did too.

• 1:06:02Bill Simmons?

  I believe in Darnold. This team's going to beat Detroit.

• 1:06:05Speaker 01

  Why is everyone overlooking him? No one wants to talk about him. I, I was the same way. I was.

• 1:06:09Bill Simmons?

  I saw that video of them carrying him, picking him up in the locker room after I was like, I'm all in. I, you've won me over. And then he just turned into a pumpkin. It was unbelievable.

• 1:06:19Speaker 01

  Unbelievable.

• 1:06:20Bill Simmons?

  So your mock draft has come in February 10th, your first one?

• 1:06:26Speaker 01

  I think so. That's what we're looking at. Yeah.

• 1:06:28Bill Simmons?

  Not that far away.

• 1:06:29Speaker 01

  No.

• 1:06:29Bill Simmons?

  Is there, we can spoil one thing in the mock draft. Is there a surprise guy for you that you're higher on than everybody else that you feel like you're going to be right and people just don't see it yet? Do you have one of those guys yet?

• 1:06:44Speaker 01

  I don't want to bore you with a, with an offensive tackle, but.

• 1:06:48Bill Simmons?

  No, let's hear it.

• 1:06:49Speaker 01

  Josh Connerly from Oregon. Everyone's talked about this Will Campbell guy who's a guard tackle from LSU and Kelvin Banks, who's, who's a really talented player from, from Texas. I think Josh Connerly might wind up being the best left tackle and for some reason.

• 1:07:05Bill Simmons?

  You act like I haven't studied these guys copiously, hoping the Pats are going to take a left tackle. See Josh Connerly that high?

• 1:07:13Speaker 01

  I think he's up there. I think.

• 1:07:14Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 1:07:15Speaker 01

  He, he, he's as, he's. Unbelievably athletic, the way he moves, he's gotten better with his hands. I think he's got a chance to be a star from this class and nobody, I haven't heard or talked to anyone who's, who's quite as high on him as, as I am. So keep an eye on Connerly.

• 1:07:32Bill Simmons?

  Were you high on Cole Strange a couple of years ago or no?

• 1:07:35Speaker 01

  Not as high as the Patriots were. Yeah.

• 1:07:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Okay. Good. Yeah. We, we traded out of the, uh, McDuffie pick and then took him one pick in front of Carl Athas. Was it the rare double whammy, uh, Belichick down the stretch? So you, so your dream scenario for the Pats would be somehow move out of that four pick, get into the nine to 11 range and take Connerly.

• 1:07:58Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:07:59Bill Simmons?

  You think he goes that high?

• 1:08:00Speaker 01

  Or I was, I think more like, I think he winds up going mid first, but, um,

• 1:08:08Speaker 01

  but if, if

• 1:08:08Bill Simmons?

  Mid first. Okay.

• 1:08:09Speaker 01

  If people see what I see, then, then maybe he goes, he goes somewhere around 10.

• 1:08:13Bill Simmons?

  And the receiver class is a disaster this year compared to last year, which was like a pretty historic run of dudes.

• 1:08:21Speaker 01

  We've had, we had a historic, almost decade of run, run of, of wide receivers, like every year.

• 1:08:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:27Speaker 01

  Four or five first round, almost surefire, like a lot of them, you know? Like all those Alabama guys, like, you know, when you look at them and then Ohio State guys and the LSU guys, like all from like five programs, the majority. It's not like Teterola McMillan from Arizona is really talented, but, but I, I don't, you know, I, I wouldn't put him up. He's not like Jamar Chase, you know?

• 1:08:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:08:52Speaker 01

  I see him mocked at like four or five and I just, I have a hard time going that high. Luther Burden's a burner, but drops a lot of passes, inconsistent. The best wide receiver in the class is Travis Hunter. And after that, I think there's a lot of guys you like late in the first and second round, but I don't see the value where you're going to have to pick for him. I, I just don't see.

• 1:09:14Bill Simmons?

  Last year was nuts. Like even think like Bowers, who is probably going to be the best tight end of his generation if he doesn't, um, get concussed 17 times because he tries to take on nine tackers every time he catches the ball. But that guy, that guy's going to be the next guy. It feels like.

• 1:09:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, he is the next guy.

• 1:09:34Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:09:34Speaker 01

  And how about Lad McConkey?

• 1:09:36Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, right.

• 1:09:37Speaker 01

  I mean.

• 1:09:38Bill Simmons?

  Pat, Pat traded out of that pick.

• 1:09:41Bill Simmons?

  Pats, Pats took the 10th, 10th wide receiver to not receiver draft. It's great. Although, don't you feel like, like I watched what Washington did where they basically, they got this coaching staff and they overpaid for their assistants, right? They got overqualified dudes at different, and they coached guys up. Whereas the Pats went the other way and had a terrible coaching staff. But don't, aren't some of these guys south, like, is Polk really like, he's just not gonna ever be an NFL player? He's not salvageable at all? Can you lose your confidence to that degree? Cause he was, he was good last year. Like, nobody thought he was gonna be a bust. I just don't, I don't understand the concept of, can a coach and a coaching staff like, bring, resuscitate a guy back to life? Is that even possible?

• 1:10:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's possible. It's possible, but there, but damage gets done as a rookie. It really does. And it's, it's hard to overcome that. Sometimes it takes a change of scenery and sometimes that's not even enough. I just look at like, what Adam Peters did at Washington, would, from the hire of Dan Quinn to the coordinators, to, Jaden was the easiest decision he had to make. How about Mike Sanders, Sanders throw?

• 1:10:48Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:10:49Speaker 01

  Two interceptions, drafting him as a rookie.

• 1:10:52Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, what, what round was he?

• 1:10:54Speaker 01

  Um, he was, he wound up going second. He was, uh, yeah, he wound up going second. Yeah.

• 1:11:01Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, the Daniels one, I mean, obviously that was a huge topic with the Pats fans, wondering what, cause it seemed like there was a stretch there where it seemed like Washington might take Drake May, and then it's like, okay, I'm gonna talk myself into Daniels and he's a little older and he's maybe not durable, but holy shit. And people in my life who love college football and like Van Lathan who loves OSU was like, Daniels is incredible. Like, if you guys got Daniels, it'd be a miracle. So you had that.

• 1:11:27Speaker 01

  The conversations I had with a lot of NFL teams was like, I, you guys in the media are missing. I remember in like, about this time last year.

• 1:11:36Bill Simmons?

  That you guys you?

• 1:11:37Speaker 01

  You guys us. Yes. You guys me. Yes. Like, we're having real conversations and fights in our draft room. Like, when we go get together, our meetings that we just had a January meeting, like, it is a, it's a war in our room, the, about Jayden versus Caleb. Wars. And a lot of teams I talked to, you know, at the end, before they saw the product on the field this year, so it's not like, you know, revisionist history, were like, yeah, we would have taken Jaden.

• 1:12:05Bill Simmons?

  So now if it's a redraft, is Caleb third on everyone's board or is he second?

• 1:12:10Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:12:11Bill Simmons?

  Third, you think? I think he has to him.

• 1:12:13Speaker 01

  I do.

• 1:12:13Bill Simmons?

  And probably Daniels has to be first. I mean,

• 1:12:16Speaker 01

  Daniels first, May second, then Caleb.

• 1:12:18Bill Simmons?

  Daniels, Daniels has won this argument, at least for now. Now he's in this different argument of like, who would you want with the ball with five minutes left in a playoff game?

• 1:12:26Speaker 01

  Right.

• 1:12:26Bill Simmons?

  It's not Mahomes. Is he Daniels?

• 1:12:28Speaker 01

  Is there?

• 1:12:28Bill Simmons?

  Second, third or fourth?

• 1:12:30Speaker 01

  Is there a fifth quarterback in the NFL that you would take over Jaden? Like he's, I saw that conversation the other day. Like,

• 1:12:36Bill Simmons?

  Right. Would you have that Borough or Jay or Jay Daniels? Would you have Herbert or Jay Daniels? Like, yeah, he's, he's already graduated there.

• 1:12:43Speaker 01

  There is the second year thing, like Stroud, Stroud grinded through it, didn't have as much protection, all that. So they, they've got to avoid the second, you know, second time around, teams having a full off season to study his tendencies. If he gets through his second year and is playing at this level, then we're, we're in the clear. But, um, but I,

• 1:13:01Bill Simmons?

  And you don't worry about him physically at all over the course of 15 years? Or is it like a Lamar?

• 1:13:06Speaker 01

  Of course I do. Do me a favor at some point, when you have a Freeman moment on your hands this week. You got, I think I told Saru to you about this too. You gotta go on Twitter. There's just like do Jayden Daniels Looney Tunes. Someone put together a great reel of him as like,

• 1:13:23Bill Simmons?

  Of all the times he just got popped?

• 1:13:25Speaker 01

  And like, like it's one thing to get popped, but when you're like, the way his body parts are just flailing everywhere. Cause he's so lean and long. It's just, it's, it's hysterical. It's worth a laugh.

• 1:13:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:13:37Speaker 01

  Yeah. It concerns me.

• 1:13:39Bill Simmons?

  We were always worried about Lamar, but Lamar always seemed like he knew how to take a hit. Then some guys just know how to do it.

• 1:13:46Speaker 01

  Jaden pops up so many times. He's so flexible and that's just who he is. But he hasn't learned that yet. Like he,

• 1:13:53Bill Simmons?

  You know who was bad at that initially was Brady. Brady took some,

• 1:13:57Speaker 01

  He did.

• 1:13:57Bill Simmons?

  smacks his first couple of years where he just got, and Drake May last year took like three or four horrible ones. Yeah. Brady figured it out.

• 1:14:06Speaker 01

  Yeah. That's the whole thing. It's flexibility. Like that's why like the Brady Quins and like the, the guys who are like Tebo's.

• 1:14:14Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:14:14Speaker 01

  I just, I can't, Will Levis. The dudes who look awesome with their shirt off and look like they can out bench Rossello are the ones I really worry about, you know?

• 1:14:24Bill Simmons?

  Nobody can out bench Rossello. What are you talking about?

• 1:14:26Speaker 01

  Yeah, I know.

• 1:14:27Bill Simmons?

  You've seen him lately. He's fucking massive.

• 1:14:29Speaker 01

  Just ask him. Just ask him.

• 1:14:30Bill Simmons?

  Jesus. Um, do you think Brady screwed up everything for all of these old quarterbacks going forward? Where we decided this was realistic because Tom Brady did it? And now we're just going to have this generation of guys in this Rogers cousin stage in their late 30s, where they just suck?

• 1:14:46Speaker 01

  Absolutely.

• 1:14:46Bill Simmons?

  We're like, no, no, Tom Brady did it. I, I really feel like he fooled even me. I picked the Rogers to, you know, win the AFC East this year. I, now it's like, oh yeah, it's really hard to play quarterback when you're 39 and your body's breaking down.

• 1:15:00Speaker 01

  Yeah, I went to that Patriots Jets game. I brought my son.

• 1:15:03Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:05Speaker 01

  To see him live in person now compared to what he was two years ago.

• 1:15:11Speaker 01

  You know, like the MVP level version of, of Aaron Rodgers was, it was scary.

• 1:15:17Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:18Speaker 01

  And to see Drake May before the concussion and how, how mobile and in control he was. It was like, oh, so that's, that's next and that's done. That's my two takeaways. Like that's next. That's done.

• 1:15:31Bill Simmons?

  And yet somebody will probably sign Rogers, I'm guessing.

• 1:15:35Speaker 01

  Why?

• 1:15:35Bill Simmons?

  For there'll be one more year, I feel like. He's going to be like one of those boxers that needs to get knocked out two more times before they finally hang it up.

• 1:15:42Speaker 01

  Yeah, I could see him wanting to. I just don't, why would you invest that and bring in that?

• 1:15:47Bill Simmons?

  I, I'm not saying I would. I just feel like, how many dumb teams do we have? We just watched the Jaguars do two weeks of coach interviews and then fire their GM. This is like seven, eight, just horrifically managed franchises.

• 1:16:02Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:16:02Bill Simmons?

  So yeah, I think Rogers could play somewhere.

• 1:16:05Speaker 01

  Oh, I'm not saying he won't. I, I agree with you. I'm just saying, why would you? With all the, with everything that comes with it too, you know? I don't know.

• 1:16:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, that's the other piece. All right. Todd McShay, first mock draft, February 10th. You can listen to the McShay Show. We're heating up toward the draft. Can't wait for, uh, all your takes, all your thoughts. Good to see you. Thanks for coming on finally.

• 1:16:25Speaker 01

  All right, my man. I'm glad to join you. I appreciate you having me in this, this, uh, this Ringer gig. I'm loving it. It's been fun.

• 1:16:31Bill Simmons?

  Great. We'd love to have you. Thanks.

• 1:16:32Speaker 01

  Thanks, man.

• 1:16:36Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that goes splat in your seat, or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what, you're gonna want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're gonna want WeatherTech for American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather. Visit weatherTech.com today. All right, taping this part late Thursday afternoon. Joe House is here. He is dressed almost like a Washington Commander's NASCAR driver. There's just Washington stuff everywhere. You're getting a colonoscopy tomorrow. You've drinking the colonoscopy juice. There's been fireworks in the house house. This is the most action-packed million-dollar pics we've ever

• 1:17:21Bill Simmons?

  had. Your team might make the Super Bowl. It's in play.

• 1:17:24Speaker 01

  I mean, first of all, you see all this gear, what I have on, what's behind me. You're gonna see none of that when I'm in Philadelphia this weekend. This is the last time you're gonna see any of this stuff because I am not catching any hands when I'm up there. I'm not, I'm not looking for it, right? I'm not, I'm too old for that smoke.

• 1:17:41Bill Simmons?

  We're too old to wear the visiting team's merchandise. We can't do it. You gotta go. You support the team, root silently, and hope you don't get punched. Also, if you do get in a fight in the stands, though, make sure it's to somebody who's below you. This is the Masilo technique. The guy in the higher ground always wins in the football things. Anyway, don't punch House. He's a great guy.

• 1:18:04Speaker 01

  I'll try my best not to get punched. I mean, if beers get poured on me, that's fine. I'll go with that. But I will tell you, on the subject of the procedure, my screening procedure, this, you know, health path that we're on, you can tell how unimaginable it was that I would have something football-related in my life this weekend. I mean, I scheduled the colonoscopy months ago, right? Because I look at the calendar, like, oh, sure, it's conference championship weekend. That's fine. I mean, I'll be...

• 1:18:37Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you're not playing conference championship. This turned out to be the Dan Snyder colonoscopy. You're releasing all the Dan Snyder feces and toxins out of your body.

• 1:18:46Speaker 01

  The toxins, yes.

• 1:18:47Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it's symbolic.

• 1:18:48Speaker 01

  Amazing, really. Yeah, it really is. All of it's coming out. I can tell you that much. In fact, if I, we might have to take a break 10 minutes in here.

• 1:18:56Bill Simmons?

  All right. Well, the listeners slash viewers will never know. We'll just do a nice, clean edit and you can come back with a nice, happy look on your face.

• 1:19:03Speaker 02

  As clean as my colon, hopefully.

• 1:19:05Bill Simmons?

  Uh, we didn't do a million dollar picks last week. We lost $585,000, but we're still up 1.282 million dollars for the year. I'm okay with what happened last week. I would take Baltimore again and your team, we kinda had to see it. I wish I took Washington. I didn't have the balls. I just didn't. I didn't have the balls to take a rookie QB against a team that felt like they were gonna run all over you, which they basically did, but it didn't matter because they turned the ball over five times.

• 1:19:34Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:19:34Bill Simmons?

  House, turnovers are the story of this last round. There's so many, there might even be turnover in your pants. There's so many stories this week about turnover battle, like the Bills, 21 straight games where they haven't lost a turnover battle, like hasn't happened since 1960. There's all these good metrics for if you, if, if you look like this Bills team, just with turnovers, you end up winning the Super Bowl. Chiefs haven't turned the ball over in two months. This round, the, the last four teams, none of them have a turnover. And I, I just wish, I wish I wasn't saying it this way, but it's almost as reductive as, at least with the Chiefs Bills game, whoever doesn't turn the ball over is probably gonna win. I feel stupid saying it, but I think it's true.

• 1:20:18Speaker 02

  Well, the two aspects of it for sure, that all four of these teams have an advantage is, is taking sacks, these quarterbacks not taking sacks. And these teams, you know, being on the correct side of the turnover margin, both Washington and Philadelphia arrive for their matchup. Plus six, the exact same number through these playoffs. Uh, and nobody would have forecasted this for, for Washington. I don't, I don't think. I mean, that's what's truly remarkable. And, and for sure, I think the handicap that we, now by the time, uh, on Sunday, on the Ringer pregame show in advance of the divisional games.

• 1:20:54Speaker 02

  Yes, indeed. I thought that nine and a half points, I finally was, had the balls to say it. The, the Detroit favored by nine and a half was goddamn disrespectful.

• 1:21:04Bill Simmons?

  You didn't have the balls to say it when we did million dollar picks.

• 1:21:07Speaker 02

  Oh, good. I couldn't remember.

• 1:21:08Bill Simmons?

  No, you didn't.

• 1:21:09Speaker 02

  I did not?

• 1:21:10Bill Simmons?

  No, you were like, you were.

• 1:21:12Speaker 02

  Well, we teased it. Didn't we tease it?

• 1:21:13Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you're being cute. You're being cute about it. I think you deep down knew your team had a real chance.

• 1:21:20Speaker 02

  Since that guy right there.

• 1:21:21Bill Simmons?

  I'm a little annoyed. I know. A little annoyed.

• 1:21:23Speaker 02

  There he is.

• 1:21:24Bill Simmons?

  Well, let's go backwards because you haven't been on the pod since Washington wins this game.

• 1:21:29Bill Simmons?

  Top five sports moment of your life?

• 1:21:31Speaker 02

  Absolutely. Yes. Yes.

• 1:21:33Bill Simmons?

  Unquestionably?

• 1:21:34Speaker 02

  I would say unquestionably because of how far we've come, how unexpected it was. I mean, I feel now like it's a bad analogy coming on here every single week and saying to you that if we wrote this script out, if you wrote real life as it's occurring and said, this is a script about a football team, every production house would turn it down, say, this is, this is trash.

• 1:22:02Bill Simmons?

  Like a sports movie, they dumped their terrible owner who hated the fans who almost like ruined football in an entire city that loved football. And then the new Kai comes in, new coach, new GM, new QB, and they just go on a winning streak.

• 1:22:16Speaker 02

  Well, not just new QB, possibly the greatest rookie in the history of the football game. I mean, you know.

• 1:22:22Bill Simmons?

  There was a few of those stories this week.

• 1:22:24Speaker 02

  I mean, the, the.

• 1:22:25Bill Simmons?

  We were there for Marino. Marino was pretty great. Now, granted, we, you know, we only got to see him a couple of times, but yeah, with the Daniels adding the playoff wins to it. Pretty nuts. Um, there's a lot to cover with this game.

• 1:22:40Bill Simmons?

  The Washington piece, I can't shake, there's some 2001 Pats parallels.

• 1:22:46Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 1:22:46Bill Simmons?

  And watching your excitement with this, the Pats, they were like five and five after 10 games and then they didn't lose again. And at some point, weird shit started happening, leading to the snow game, which was like, that was when they finally pulled us in and none of the Pats fans wanted to believe and it's like, no, no, believe. We had like weird Brady Bledsoe stuff, but you know, Bledsoe got hurt. It was an up and down season. We had that with the defense and the coaching. You have it with your offense, but.

• 1:23:14Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:23:14Bill Simmons?

  You guys are 14 and five. He hasn't won eight straight games. It's not like, they're like, oh my God, what's Washington doing here? Like at some point, Washington's just good. And I'm really leaning toward taking them in the game, not just with the points, but outright. I really think they can win. And we'll get into the Philly stuff in a second, but let's just get that out of the way. I don't think this is fluky. I think that Daniels has been that good. The coaching has been that good. The guys, over and over again, you've had like these semi miraculous wins, these comeback wins, these fourth quarter wins, and there's a mojo that develops that I think devises magicians. I picked against Washington the last two rounds.

• 1:23:56Speaker 02

  Understandable.

• 1:23:57Bill Simmons?

  I'm tired of doing it. Like at some point, you gotta accept what's going on and something is going on.

• 1:24:02Speaker 02

  It does feel like something is going on. I mean, I can't view it from my, in an unbiased kind of way. And for sure, the sum of all of these guys together believing is greater than the parts because you can't sit down and do X's and O's. You can't do advanced metrics. You can't use any of those things to truly capture the spirit of this team and the way these guys believe. And they just believe in that belief in each other. I mean, it's an incredible combination of veterans and rookies and the veterans, some guys that have been there before. Bobby Wagner's been there before. So for a defense that by all

• 1:24:45Speaker 02

  metrics, it's the worst unit on the football field come Sunday, but somehow or another, we keep getting W's. They just keep getting W's, Bill Simmons.

• 1:24:55Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, you have, it's like the 30th defense DVOA against the run. Your defense is basically what the 01 Pats offense was. Every week we're like, how are we going to score points? Like we have Jermaine Wiggins as a tight end. Our only good offensive player is Troy Brand. We have a rookie QB who they're terrified to have him really do anything. And each week we would just patch together points and the same thing's happening with your defense. Where it's like, how is this defense going to stop anybody? And you're just getting turnovers. But the thing is, it was like Detroit, yeah, they had five turnovers. There were some bad plays. Washington also made some good plays like that guy, that guy jumping the post route on the TD in the end zone. That was a good fucking play.

• 1:25:37Speaker 02

  Outstanding. Yes. Yeah. But the rookie, Mike Sanders, still had two interceptions. And I feel very proud of myself in one of my threads with, with actually a guy with, with the team. I said, you know, this is part of the, the revelation. This guy Sanders still the kid from Michigan. He's been unbelievable, but you know, it's a, he is for, for sure benefiting from the overall gravitas of, of this defense. Dan Quinn can coach up a defense. He's got the spine. You have Jeremy Chin playing safety. You've got Frankie Louvoo and Bobby Wagner where they are. And it, it does. They just, they just really do believe. And look, they held Tampa to 20 points.

• 1:26:20Speaker 02

  And we watched that Tampa defense, I mean, offense go out and just post points on everybody. Now, it did feel like if Detroit had stuck with the run, that they might've been able to run for 250 yards in the second half and they might've won that football game, but they chose not to. And that kid who had at least some role in it is now going to be the head coach of the Chicago Bears. So good luck to them.

• 1:26:43Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, he got to stay in your conference.

• 1:26:45Speaker 02

  Their conference.

• 1:26:47Bill Simmons?

  Well, you're, you're the Washington conference, the Bears, Ben Johnson.

• 1:26:53Bill Simmons?

  It's a plan. Um, the Washington piece of this, big picture. If they could actually win this game, where do the Eagles rank on most hated Washington opponents? They're not number one, but they're in the top three, right?

• 1:27:06Speaker 02

  Well, because it, we hate everybody in the NFC.

• 1:27:09Bill Simmons?

  You hate Dallas the most though.

• 1:27:10Speaker 02

  Yes. Hate Dallas the most for sure. It's mutual hatred amongst all of the franchises in the NFC East. And each team has their own, which one they hate the most. I think the Giants hate the Eagles the most. I think the Eagles hate Dallas the most. I don't know, but.

• 1:27:28Speaker 02

  For sure, Washington hates Dallas the most. Philadelphia, let's, you know, be real about it, wasn't really on the radar for a long time.

• 1:27:36Bill Simmons?

  Well, you've only played them once in the playoffs. It's, it's like the weirdest rivalry that's not actually a rivalry. It felt like the last couple of years, it was more fun because you guys would have some good games. You beat them last year.

• 1:27:47Speaker 02

  Well, it doesn't make, I mean, I'm not that surprised that, that Washington and Philadelphia have only faced each other in the playoffs once. Because that means both teams have to make it in and, and, you know, in their previous iteration.

• 1:27:57Bill Simmons?

  Well, when you think they've been playing football for 80 years, one time seems low.

• 1:28:02Speaker 02

  Sure, sure.

• 1:28:04Bill Simmons?

  And Daniels is the most popular Washington athlete since I've known you. It's either him or New Bull.

• 1:28:12Bill Simmons?

  It's either him or George Mearson.

• 1:28:14Speaker 02

  Well, I mean, you know, you, you're all time greats are John Riggins and, uh, you know, the Hawks. There are several generations of, of Washington fans that didn't have football in their lives. So Alex Ovechkin ranks pretty high up in terms of Washington, uh, icons. Yeah, but Dan, Daniels is in the conversation, let there be no doubt. Some old heads like me, like Wes Unseld and Elvin Hayes, but you know, that's old head shit.

• 1:28:41Bill Simmons?

  Finishing last, Andre Blatch.

• 1:28:46Bill Simmons?

  All right. So to get to the point where I want to have the balls to take Washington. No N'Kobe Dean, that's good.

• 1:28:53Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:28:55Bill Simmons?

  Here's the big thing.

• 1:28:58Bill Simmons?

  Do your thing about how you think Hertz is hurt. Cause this is, this is the number one reason to take Washington is there is something wrong with Jalen Hertz. The stats back it up, the eye test back it up, and his knee got bent backwards during the game and they've been tight lipped about it. I don't think they tell us if he was hurt, but do your thing.

• 1:29:13Speaker 02

  Yeah. And, and, uh, we, we watched it. It was a, a bad stretch and, and it was, you know, bad enough that we wondered, I wondered in the moment whether that was a, a tear, whether that was a ligament tear. It turned out it clearly was not a ligament tear because that would have been announced on, on Monday, but. The, the discussion all week has been, we presume that Jalen Hurts is going to play. We expect Jalen Hurts to, to play. I mean, we watched the way that that knee bent and they definitely shot him up with something because his behavior in the interview after that game, when he was with Saquon, that was a version of Jalen Hurts.

• 1:29:54Speaker 02

  That is not your, your sort of standard issue post game, you know?

• 1:29:59Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 1:30:00Speaker 02

  He's, he, he had a kind of aura. Let's just put it at that. But look, if Washington only has to stop Saquon Barkley, preposterous kind of task that's in front of them.

• 1:30:18Speaker 02

  If Jalen Hurts isn't going to throw the football down the field, it takes him too long. We've been watching this now, and I know you have the stats to back it up. Where for throws that are 10 yards or longer down the football field, it's just taking too long for him to get the ball out of the hand and, and out of his hand. And they're not throwing the ball anyway.

• 1:30:32Bill Simmons?

  And he's taken sacks, which he didn't take before. Like I, there was a great Twitter thread of all the worst plays he had in that last game.

• 1:30:40Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:30:41Bill Simmons?

  And it was just video after video. And I was like, Jesus, he looks like freaking Dorian Thompson Robinson. Like, what's this dude doing? You know, I really thought long and hard about the matchup. Cause my instinct was take Washington and I didn't have a good week last week and I wanted to. I kept coming back to the total yardage, which I sent to you. There was a most rushing yards ever in the NFC championship game, the AFC championship game. The case for the Eagles, which I'm not against, is that they're going to run the ball down Washington's throat. They're going to control the game and they're just going to have the ball ton. You're only going to get like six possessions. One bad thing, you won't get a fourth and two. Maybe there's a tip pass turnover and all of a sudden the Eagles are up 10 and they went.

• 1:31:24Bill Simmons?

  The thing that's interesting to me is how few times in the title game. A team has just run the ball down somebody else's throat. And I sent this to you. Just in the last 40 plus years, only one team in the NFC title game has gotten to 200 plus yards rushing. That was the Niners against the Packers in 2020. Other than that, we're talking 81 Eagles, 71 Cowboys, 80 Rams, 73 Vikings, 97 Packers. And then you get into that 169 to 196 range. And there's some more modern teams there. The Lions last year, the Seahawks in January 2015, the Bears.

• 1:32:06Bill Simmons?

  And but my point is it's unusual, like really, really historically unusual to rush for 200 plus in this second to last game of the season. So my question to you is, how many yards are the Eagles going to have in this game? When you factor in Hertz is throwing for 130 to 150 yards a game? That puts them in like the low 300s, which you get every week.

• 1:32:31Speaker 02

  And the crucial thing for what you just shared in terms of Philly's approach is if Jalen Hurts can't run, go ahead and set Saquon Barkley's over under at 199 and a half yards. If Washington can hold him under 200, I like Washington's chances.

• 1:32:52Bill Simmons?

  But 200 would be the, that would be one of the two best performances of the last 45 years. How about like, I said it at 150.

• 1:33:00Speaker 02

  I don't, well, I don't, it's Saquon. He's been unbelievable. I mean, he just, he rips off 70 yard runs. But to me, the larger point is if Jalen, if that dimension of Jalen Hurts is not on the table, and we'll know within the first, you know, series, we'll see how he moves. If he is not a threat to run the football down, down the field, then that changes things immensely. And, you know, I, Washington.

• 1:33:24Bill Simmons?

  Right, like that, that long touchdown run he had in the first quarter last.

• 1:33:27Speaker 02

  Right. Take that away. If that threat isn't there, then it changes things. It tilts things for the Washington defense.

• 1:33:35Bill Simmons?

  In the AFC title game, nobody ever, no team has ever rushed for 200 plus yards. The last team in the last, like, the 99 Broncos rushed for 178.

• 1:33:48Speaker 02

  It makes sense.

• 1:33:48Bill Simmons?

  The 2015 Pats ran for 177. So it's just, it's important to remember like, oh, Saquon's gonna run all over them. Well, when we get to the final four, that's usually not happening in the way you think it's gonna happen. And then if Hertz is gonna look throwing the ball like he has the last few weeks and really like the whole season. I really liked watching him all season and, you know, the, it seems like you look at the stats and the advanced stats for him the last three years. It's not that far off, but then like the bundle wrote a great piece for the Ringer today about the Eagles passing game. And it's like, they basically just kind of punted on it.

• 1:34:22Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:34:23Bill Simmons?

  And, and maybe try to take two shots a game, but other, a couple Dallas Goddard plays. But for the most part, they're just trying to run the ball and control the clock. The question for me though, if you can hang around, what we saw from the Eagles in that fourth quarter against the Rams. Where all the, it just felt like the front four died. They started to get tired and the Rams are just moving the ball down the field on them. Their receivers are getting open. That's what Daniel, that's, that's what he does.

• 1:34:49Speaker 02

  Well, and, and here's the thing, Washington, from the minute that they get the ball in the first quarter, is going to be playing no huddle, up tempo offense.

• 1:34:59Bill Simmons?

  Right. And four down offense too. Any fourth and two, fourth and three, they're going for.

• 1:35:03Speaker 02

  Going for every single one of those. Every series that Washington possesses the ball will be a four down series in the sense that they're gonna try, if they're close at all and they're not on the wrong side of like, you know, the, the, their own 30 yard line, that they'll go for it. And I, I'm, and, and, you know, at some point, the cumulative effect of that on a defense. This is why, like the Jalen Carter piece is significant and Washington lost.

• 1:35:28Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Make his ass tired.

• 1:35:30Speaker 02

  Right. Yeah. And we just watched it, but what, we lost Sam Cosme. Now, you know, Washington in its own shrewd way is being coy about, you know, how they're going to play this. And there is a thought that Andrew Wiley might slide from the left side over to the right side. And he has played some right guard for Kansas City, but it was several years ago. And, you know, they, they have talent on this offensive line, but really it's, it's a Kingsbury scheme thing that's been most impressive. So it's a huge loss to, to lose Cosme, but the Jalen Carter piece, yeah, man, he got tired. He was, he made the play of the game. I would say on a really bad play call, McVeigh said that there was a miscommunication. Um, and that, that, that led to, you know,

• 1:36:14Bill Simmons?

  Right. I always watch for that with the, from a live bet standpoint, these teams that have these awesome pass rushes, the first two hours of the game in that fourth quarter, it gets a little different. Once the guys have been out there for three hours.

• 1:36:27Speaker 02

  Well, you know, we, another time we saw it, the last time Washington played Philadelphia, when Washington came back from down two scores.

• 1:36:34Bill Simmons?

  Scored 36 points.

• 1:36:35Speaker 02

  Yeah, the most points anybody scored on this Philadelphia defense all season.

• 1:36:39Bill Simmons?

  So McShay and I talked earlier about how there's like been three Washington seasons. Basically you had that first stretch in the beginning when it was like, oh my God, what's going on? Daniels got hurt.

• 1:36:50Bill Simmons?

  You had some injuries, Eckor got hurt like it's just, you didn't. And then all of a sudden you had your full team again and it came on, but you go back to that. You lost to Philly in week 11. And from that point on, Dallas, week 12, you put up 412 yards. Tennessee, 463, Saints, 326, Eagles in week 16, 368. Atlanta, week 17, 412, week 18 against Dallas throughout, because that wasn't.

• 1:37:17Speaker 02

  Mariota, it was a Mariota.

• 1:37:19Bill Simmons?

  Tampa, wild card, 350, and then last week Detroit, 481. So if you're taking a team on the road, I want to, I want to make sure they can move the ball. And everybody's like this Eagles defense, it's really good. It's the best defense in the league, but I think Washington can move the ball on them because we've seen them do it.

• 1:37:38Bill Simmons?

  And then the, the question is how special is Daniels? And that becomes the narrative out of this. Can, can he get there? There's a couple playoff manifesto rules in play. Rule number three, beware of the nobody believes in this team, but don't try to talk yourself into one either. I'm not sure they qualify anymore because it seems like this week there's some good discourse about people believing in them. Last week, definitely nobody believed in them.

• 1:38:00Speaker 02

  The funny thing is that I feel like, you know, from the sort of national NFL media perspective, there's a lot of believers in Washington, but the market does not believe in Washington because this line opened at four and a half and it got slammed all the way up to its present six and a half spot.

• 1:38:16Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, and I think the general consensus is the Eagles are going to run all over them. Their defense will shut them down. And this was a nice, congratulations, Washington for making the NFC title game, but it's time to go home.

• 1:38:28Bill Simmons?

  Rule number six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that has a chance to win.

• 1:38:34Speaker 02

  I believe.

• 1:38:34Bill Simmons?

  I, I think it's, I honestly think either, I think either team could win. So with the plus six and a half.

• 1:38:41Speaker 02

  I believe, I believe.

• 1:38:42Bill Simmons?

  I don't know if they're gonna win. I think they're gonna win. Rule number 14 was beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 Giants. I'm gonna add the 2001 Pats to this list.

• 1:38:53Speaker 02

  Okay, go ahead.

• 1:38:54Bill Simmons?

  Cause I think there's something that happens with teams that get thrown together over the course of a season when they can get hot like this and some funky stuff happen. But when you think about, you go backwards, you think about the five, the four and a half months with Washington and the Hail Mary and some of these games you pulled out of your ass. At some point, you, you develop like these winning scars almost.

• 1:39:16Speaker 02

  I agree with this. You know, I do.

• 1:39:17Bill Simmons?

  So if they're, if they're hanging around in the fourth quarter and they're down three, I'm just, I'm gonna be mad if I bet on Philly.

• 1:39:23Speaker 02

  Yeah. Uh, go ahead. Do you have any more manifesto things?

• 1:39:27Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. Rule number 16, take one last look at the quarterbacks and remember there's plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach. So this would really apply to Hertz because if it's like, wait till next round to bet against Hertz, that would go. But I mean, Dan, not only is Daniel's the best quarterback in this game, he has been out of control. I mean, he's 70% of his passes, even if you look at like his last seven or eight, he's like 20 touchdowns, six picks. He'll have the one, uh oh, throw a game.

• 1:39:57Speaker 02

  Sure.

• 1:39:58Bill Simmons?

  But he completes 70% of his passes and every fourth down and two, and every fourth down and three, you just feel like he's gonna get it.

• 1:40:05Speaker 02

  And, and incredibly, he just doesn't take sacks. He just doesn't take, they, Washington just doesn't get that setback, um, thrown, thrown at him. Now I do want to, if, if I have, if I can have a moment.

• 1:40:19Bill Simmons?

  Throw some water on some stuff?

• 1:40:21Speaker 02

  Pour some settle down juice on the whole situation, right?

• 1:40:23Bill Simmons?

  Let's hear it.

• 1:40:24Speaker 02

  We're talking about an absolutely unprecedented outcome. First of all, this is Washington's fourth road game coming up here.

• 1:40:32Bill Simmons?

  It's not unprecedented. The Pats, well, I guess the Pats played their first game at home in 01, but the Pats were 14 point underdogs against this, or 13 point underdogs against the Steelers and then 14 against the Rams.

• 1:40:43Speaker 02

  Yeah. Uh, so the starting point is fourth road game.

• 1:40:47Bill Simmons?

  Fourth road game in a row.

• 1:40:49Speaker 02

  In a row, its own unique challenge. But here's the stuff. It's the rookie quarterbacks in conference championship games.

• 1:40:55Bill Simmons?

  We talked about this last week.

• 1:40:56Speaker 02

  Yeah. 0-5 straight up, only 1-4 against the spread. Also, teams like Washington that were underdogs in the first two rounds and covered both of those rounds, 1-5 straight up, 2-4 against the spread when it comes time for the conference championship. And this one also, underdogs in divisional rematches. So Washington is the underdog. It's a divisional rematch, 0-4 straight up, 1-3 against the spread. I mean, that's your settle down juice, right? It just, there's no precedent for a team in Washington's position to actually win this game.

• 1:41:36Bill Simmons?

  I think you can win. There's two scenarios. There's the scenario we laid out earlier where the Eagles just run the ball down your throat. You don't get a fourth and two. There's one turnover. You're down 13. You kind of know by the third quarter.

• 1:41:50Bill Simmons?

  Great run, guys. Great run, guys. Then there's the other scenario where the Eagles can't throw the ball at all. Washington is just loading up on Saquon. The fans are frustrated. You get one turnover, one strip sack, something. Maybe you get a special team, something, and you're just hanging around, hanging around. And it can get to the fourth quarter where it's either tied, you're up three, you're down three, but you're in the mix of exactly where the Eagles fans don't want to be with this Eagles team.

• 1:42:22Bill Simmons?

  And that's, that's it. It's one of those two scenarios. And I gotta say, I'm leaning toward Washington plus six and a half. Let's, we'll take a break and then we'll talk Casey Buffalo.

• 1:42:38Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun? Sometimes earlier than expected? Sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead? But what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully your team doesn't go to Cancun. 1-2-3 Cancun. Or if they do, you go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down, ready to watch the game, only to search and scroll endlessly? If so, you need Fire TV. It shows you are live games from your favorite teams all in one place, right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV.

• 1:43:23Bill Simmons?

  Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary.

• 1:43:30Bill Simmons?

  All right, coming back. House, the colonoscopy juice has not really kicked in, so that's a good sign for Washington, I think. I was thinking about the last 20 minutes we just did. It's gonna be hilarious if you lose like 45 to 10.

• 1:43:45Speaker 02

  It could happen.

• 1:43:46Bill Simmons?

  Remember the hope?

• 1:43:47Speaker 02

  It could happen.

• 1:43:48Bill Simmons?

  The hope in their eyes?

• 1:43:49Speaker 02

  It would still be fine. I'm beyond, you know, any reasonable hope or expectation for this team, the franchise, what they've done. Those moments of joy. I mean, I hate that Washington did what it did to Detroit of all franchises. You know, I bear no ill will towards Detroit, but they did shut that stadium up. I mean, it was silent in there and nothing would be more beautiful than doing that to the Philly crowd. But look, Philly might come out and just, you know, put us on our backs and run the road sled right over us. It is possible. They have the best offensive line. It's an incredible offensive line that Philly possesses.

• 1:44:32Bill Simmons?

  What was the demeanor of Washington after the game? Was it like they won the Super Bowl or was it like two more?

• 1:44:41Speaker 02

  Something in between those two because they're continued to be.

• 1:44:44Bill Simmons?

  I just wanted to make sure it wasn't like, we did it. Oh, my God. And then you.

• 1:44:46Speaker 02

  There's a lot of enthusiasm, you know, there are, those guys are, they believe in each other. So they're coming out of both the Tampa game and that Detroit game. Like there's a swagger, but there's also for sure some exuberance, that there'd be no doubt.

• 1:45:02Bill Simmons?

  If you could take your coloascopy juice, colonoscopy juice stained underwear and mail them to Dan Snyder without getting arrested, would you do it?

• 1:45:12Speaker 02

  Oh, I mean, first of all, they're, right now, they're small stains. I sent you the picture. I would, I would, I would, I mean, what I would send Dan Snyder wouldn't be those. They're not nearly foul enough. He deserves so much worse.

• 1:45:27Bill Simmons?

  House, we've had drunk house, buzzed house, sober house, and now we have cold ass me juice house. Chiefs Bills?

• 1:45:37Bill Simmons?

  I just don't have a lot of, it's stupid to even talk advanced numbers with this game. I don't really know what to say other than the Chiefs just win these games all the time. They've lost three times in the playoffs with Mahomes. We went through the losses last week. The only one where they really got their ass kicked was the Super Bowl. They should have beaten the Patriots and we lucked out. Even the Patriots fans would admit that. And the Bengals game where Mahomes clearly got concussed near the end of the first half. That was what it was. Otherwise, they just win these games. The line is disrespectful. Everyone's disrespected. The Bills are disrespectful from last week. They're, they're trying to get the, nobody believes in us. It's like, well, the Ravens were the best team in the league.

• 1:46:21Bill Simmons?

  Like, there's a reason they were, they ended up being favored.

• 1:46:25Speaker 02

  The Bills really are a nobody believes in us team. Do you agree with that at least? Nobody believes in the Bills.

• 1:46:32Bill Simmons?

  I feel like a lot of people are taking them this week.

• 1:46:34Speaker 02

  Okay. I mean, that line hasn't moved. Opened at one and a half, stuck right there, one and a half.

• 1:46:41Bill Simmons?

  But that, that to me says the Bills aren't, aren't a nobody believes in us team. They're playing on the road against a team that's been to four of the last five AFC title games. So they're only plus one and a half.

• 1:46:52Speaker 02

  Fair, fair enough. I will say this, let's see what happens when the public wakes up Sunday morning. Or, you know, Saturday night going into Sunday, because right now this is just a professional market, right?

• 1:47:03Bill Simmons?

  Buffalo's secondary looking a little banged up.

• 1:47:07Speaker 02

  Not only looked, they are banged up. Both, Christian Benford. I don't know if he, if he practiced. I mean, you know, he got, he had a concussion on the last play of the game against the Raiders and Taylor Rapp was questionable with a hip injury.

• 1:47:27Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, there, there's serious issues in their secondary.

• 1:47:31Bill Simmons?

  So there's, there's a working case for a Buffalo pick and there's a working case for a Chiefs pick.

• 1:47:37Bill Simmons?

  The Chiefs case is partly what we laid out about the, this is just the infrastructure of what they do. This is the best mini dynasty we've had since the Pats. Combined with the fact that there's really two KCs now, trying to play this 20 game season where every year they're playing 19 or 20 games and they're one way in the regular season and they're barely scraping by and then around late December they start and then in January they become a different team. So I'm, that's why it's almost like you can't look at the numbers, but they're home, just a game they should win. They hate the Bills. So there's all of that. And I, I really like their team. I think this is

• 1:48:19Bill Simmons?

  the best they've looked the last couple of weeks. The case for the Bills is just Josh Allen grabs the torch from homes. Then that's it. Cause that's the only way they're winning.

• 1:48:29Speaker 02

  He could do it.

• 1:48:30Bill Simmons?

  He's gotta fucking grab the torch.

• 1:48:32Speaker 02

  He could do it. I mean.

• 1:48:33Bill Simmons?

  Takes him, walks off à la Peyton Manning in 2006.

• 1:48:37Speaker 02

  One of the things that the Texans showed us last week is that, you know, there was a bunch of, of supportive numbers for the idea that Kansas City's run defense was a dominant run defense. And then Joe Mixon got the ball and the Texans with their, the most, the weakest unit of that Texans team is their offensive line. And somehow they established the run and Mixon was really effective. And the Texans out yardage, the, the Chiefs, you know, by, by, by quite a bit, like, you know, if the Texans.

• 1:49:09Bill Simmons?

  That was a weird one though, because they had the long kick return. So they had like, and then a three and out, but they still scored three points. I, I don't know.

• 1:49:17Speaker 02

  Okay. I'm talking only about the ability of Houston to establish the run.

• 1:49:22Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, it was a little goofy.

• 1:49:23Speaker 02

  But I'm saying they, they established the run and Buffalo's offensive line is good. And if James Cook gets cooking and you know, Josh Allen, one of my favorite props of, of this week, especially with the quiet rush yards game that, that Josh Allen had. Now he did get to 10 attempts, over eight and a half attempts last week. That was a giant cash for everybody. I hope everybody listened to the ring. Or pregame show, but he, he was way under his yardage number. I do not expect him to be under his yardage number this week. This is a buy any means necessary. Pull it all out. Pull out every stop, pull it right out of your, your, your, your butthole. Uh, uh, you know, nice, nice and clean, Josh Allen. I think he's gonna rush. I think 50 is a great number.

• 1:50:07Bill Simmons?

  So I guess my question is, I really feel like Buffalo should have lost to Baltimore last week. And I know that pisses the Baltimore fans off. It used to piss me off as a Pats fan when we would beat somebody in the playoffs. Then people are, you shouldn't have won. You looked out, blah, blah, blah. And it's like, yeah, well, we didn't fucking turn the ball over and they did. And we forced turnovers. So fuck you. So I get it.

• 1:50:25Speaker 02

  It's a fair answer.

• 1:50:27Bill Simmons?

  I just think Buffalo this whole season has looked a little better than they actually are. And the Chiefs have looked a little worse than they actually are until recently. And one team I think has a little higher ceiling than the other team, unless Josh Allen just says, watch this.

• 1:50:44Speaker 02

  He could.

• 1:50:45Bill Simmons?

  That's why the line's one and a half. That's why it's, you get one and a half for being at home. It's a perfect matchup. I just like the Chiefs infrastructure. Like there was that moment in the Houston game last week when all of a sudden Spags dialed up all those funky blitzes, right? He's like waiting, waiting, waiting. He's like bam, and he just went after Stroud.

• 1:51:03Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:51:03Bill Simmons?

  And fucked up a whole Texans drive. There's some institutional knowledge of how to win these playoff games that I just don't want to bet against. And if Buffalo beats them, so be it.

• 1:51:14Speaker 02

  I totally agree. I mean, that, that has to be the, the approach, right? Like, why would we put ourselves through the, the mental gymnastics to get to a spot where we say like a definitively, affirmatively, yes, the Bills are going to win this game and the points and all, you know, we'll grab the points and the, the Bills is the case to make. You have to work so hard. It's the simple case. It's the case you just made. Josh Allen does the thing, does the superlative, superior thing, and that would be awesome. And I'll be fine with losing my money if he does it. I'm not kidding, but I'm not betting against, I'm not betting against the Chiefs. Just not gonna do it. Not at this number, not at this number that they've won and covered every single time in the playoffs where it's been under three in this neighborhood. Yeah, sign me up.

• 1:51:58Bill Simmons?

  We talk about this, well, we did it last year. We bet against the Chiefs against the Ravens in the AFC title game.

• 1:52:07Bill Simmons?

  And it was a never again.

• 1:52:09Speaker 02

  Never again. Lesson learned.

• 1:52:12Bill Simmons?

  It was for me, at least as long as Mahomes is in his P in his prime and as long as the Reid coaching infrastructure and they have a good enough team and they have Kelsey or somebody like him. I just don't want, I don't, I didn't like the feeling of being like, why the fuck did I bet against the Chiefs? So they're gonna have to lose before I stop doing it. This is, it's a little bit of us staying at the blackjack table too long, but I also.

• 1:52:35Speaker 02

  I don't think that.

• 1:52:36Bill Simmons?

  In his late twenties, like.

• 1:52:37Speaker 02

  No, yeah.

• 1:52:39Speaker 02

  Yeah. And respectfully, uh, it wasn't we, you didn't have me on million dollar picks for that Ravens Chiefs game.

• 1:52:45Bill Simmons?

  But you also had the Ravens.

• 1:52:46Speaker 02

  Oh, no, I did not. I definitely did not.

• 1:52:48Bill Simmons?

  The Chiefs? Did you zag it?

• 1:52:49Speaker 02

  It was four and a half or five points. It was preposterous. Yeah, that line was crazy talk.

• 1:52:54Bill Simmons?

  Playoff manifesto.

• 1:52:57Bill Simmons?

  Really nothing unless we want to create a manifesto rule for the Chiefs.

• 1:53:01Speaker 02

  They, they might deserve their own rule.

• 1:53:04Bill Simmons?

  Rule number seventeen is don't try to be hero, just try to win money. And that really applies to the Josh Allen thing. It's like the Josh Allen, it's like, don't try to be a hero. What's gonna, are you really ready when it's third quarter? And it's nineteen to seventeen Chiefs and they have the ball and they're driving or you be kicking yourself. Uh, there was a rule I proposed last year that I didn't really adopt, but maybe I should. New rule, what does the NFL really, really, really want to happen?

• 1:53:30Speaker 02

  Hmm.

• 1:53:33Speaker 02

  This is very funny in view of what we watched out of the referees in that Houston game.

• 1:53:38Bill Simmons?

  Wow.

• 1:53:40Bill Simmons?

  And it's been a big topic.

• 1:53:42Speaker 02

  Has it?

• 1:53:43Bill Simmons?

  They really love the Chiefs. On the other hand, would, would like a Buffalo, Washington, Super Bowl or Buffalo? Like, I just feel like the one Super Bowl matchup that everybody's gonna be like, ah, what the fuck is Casey Philly? Right? That'll be the one where like, ah, we already did this.

• 1:53:59Speaker 02

  It's still pretty good though. We did it. We did already do it. It's still pretty good.

• 1:54:03Bill Simmons?

  Every other matchup, super fun though. Washington, Buffalo, Washington, Kansas City. Buffalo, Philly, every version of that is fun. The, the KC Philly is, both of them have won Super Bowls within the last 10 years. They've already played each other. I just can't get that excited about it. I still don't like watching Philly's offense. But as fun as Barkley is, it's really like a slog watching the thirty nine seconds of play.

• 1:54:27Speaker 02

  You know who agrees with you? AJ Brown.

• 1:54:30Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:54:32Speaker 02

  What's going on here? He's also not healthy, by the way. That's another guy. He might come out and look like, you know, with a spring in his step, but we haven't seen it. And those drops last week were big time.

• 1:54:44Bill Simmons?

  I had a couple of prop bets for you before we get to the picks.

• 1:54:48Speaker 02

  Yeah, I have some for you. Let's hear them.

• 1:54:51Bill Simmons?

  What do you have? I'll hear yours first if you want.

• 1:54:54Speaker 02

  No, no, no, go ahead.

• 1:54:55Bill Simmons?

  Daniel's no interceptions, minus 104.

• 1:55:01Speaker 02

  I don't love it.

• 1:55:03Bill Simmons?

  I wish the odds were better.

• 1:55:04Speaker 02

  I don't love it only because of what you sort of observed was possible earlier, which is.

• 1:55:12Bill Simmons?

  Like the tip pass at the line of scrimmage.

• 1:55:14Speaker 02

  That defensive line.

• 1:55:15Bill Simmons?

  He gets hit as he's throwing it. All right.

• 1:55:17Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:55:19Bill Simmons?

  Mahomes over four and a half carries, minus 128, which is, it just feels like this line should be six and a half because you know, he's going to scramble four times. There's the kneel down possibility.

• 1:55:31Speaker 02

  It's the same number as last week and we really didn't sweat that at all. I don't like this, at this stage of the playoffs, those two guys are running the football. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are running the football.

• 1:55:46Bill Simmons?

  So that juice on that, that's minus 128.

• 1:55:49Speaker 02

  Fine, fine.

• 1:55:50Bill Simmons?

  Josh Allen to score a touchdown is minus 115.

• 1:55:55Bill Simmons?

  I love the odds, but I, it just feels like if they're around the goal line, you could even see it last week against the Ravens. They were just doing the traditional QB draw play over and over again.

• 1:56:04Speaker 02

  He's a batting ram. He's a bad boy. Him in the end zone makes a lot of sense to me.

• 1:56:09Bill Simmons?

  And then Kelsey hitting his over, which is 67 and a half. And Casey to win is plus 202. And I feel like those two are.

• 1:56:22Speaker 02

  Correlated.

• 1:56:23Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 1:56:24Speaker 02

  Correlated, yes. I agree with this.

• 1:56:26Bill Simmons?

  So I marked that one down. Casey in Washington to be the Super Bowl is plus 518.

• 1:56:33Bill Simmons?

  Here's my favorite one, though. This is a five, this is a five member same game parlay.

• 1:56:41Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 1:56:42Bill Simmons?

  Kelsey 50 plus yards.

• 1:56:44Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 1:56:45Bill Simmons?

  Yes or no?

• 1:56:46Speaker 02

  Sure. Yes. That's a yes. That's a yes. That's a yes.

• 1:56:49Bill Simmons?

  Matt Collins, one catch.

• 1:56:53Speaker 02

  He only needs one?

• 1:56:54Bill Simmons?

  Every, just one, just one catch from Matt Collins. He always gets a catch.

• 1:56:58Speaker 02

  As long as he doesn't get kicked out of the game because he's a psychopath. As long as he's not kicked out, then I like the idea of one.

• 1:57:05Bill Simmons?

  Daniels, 250 plus passing rushing combined.

• 1:57:11Speaker 02

  Hmm, that's, that's, that's kind of appetizing because I

• 1:57:14Bill Simmons?

  He's way over that every game. He would basically have to get hurt not to get that.

• 1:57:17Speaker 02

  He's in the 50 to 75 yard rush without really

• 1:57:22Bill Simmons?

  And at least 200. Yeah.

• 1:57:24Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:57:24Bill Simmons?

  All right. Dallas Goddard, 25 plus yards.

• 1:57:28Speaker 02

  That's one of my favorite props of the entire, I'm on Goddard every which way this game.

• 1:57:32Bill Simmons?

  All right. So you're with me for those first four.

• 1:57:34Speaker 02

  Those four are on the target.

• 1:57:37Bill Simmons?

  So I will let you choose who is the fifth here. I have two options. Deami Brown, 40 plus yards would make that five thing parlay plus 380.

• 1:57:48Speaker 02

  Mm hmm.

• 1:57:49Bill Simmons?

  Or McLaurin 70 plus yards. That's plus 437 if you throw that one in.

• 1:57:55Speaker 02

  Does it have to be a Washington receiver for the fifth leg of this thing?

• 1:57:58Bill Simmons?

  It does. I needed one Washington. That, why? You don't want it to be a Washington receiver?

• 1:58:03Speaker 02

  Well, they're, they're, the numbers are all over the place. It would be McLaurin. I would feel much, much, much, much, much more comfortable with the idea of McLaurin, especially because it could come by way of what we watched

• 1:58:17Speaker 02

  against Detroit, which is like a really smart play, like a bubble kind of play, a wheel route, you know, something that is unconventional, something that McLaurin is going to be catching, but, but really it's, it's, it's Austin Eckler and it's Zach Ertz. That's who's catching the ball for Washington. Those are your ball control guys. That's how you matriculate the ball down the field. That's how you possess the ball and have eight to 12 play drives and play and drives that take, you know, seven to nine minutes, which is absolutely the, the pathway for Washington to, to potentially win this game.

• 1:58:52Bill Simmons?

  So Eckler

• 1:58:53Speaker 02

  And Eckler.

• 1:58:55Bill Simmons?

  There's an alternate Eckler rushing receiving.

• 1:58:59Bill Simmons?

  Where 25 plus is minus 470 and 40 plus.

• 1:59:03Speaker 02

  He's gonna get that receiving. He's gonna get that.

• 1:59:04Bill Simmons?

  40 plus is minus 165. So you want to put that in instead of your receivers? Austin Eckler gets 40 plus rushing receiving yards.

• 1:59:13Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm fine with that. I mean, I don't think he's gonna get a ton of touches in terms of the running game, but he is such a crucial outlet for Jaden. He factors into every time Jaden's under pressure, you know, Eckler is the guy that gets the first look and no N'Kobe Dean is such a big deal for Philly. Like that would be the dude that I would worry about taking away the Eckler option, but I don't worry about that in this game. So I love, I love the idea of Eckler. He's gonna touch the ball a lot in my estimation.

• 1:59:44Bill Simmons?

  All right. So we're gonna do Eckler as the fifth and I'll give you the odds when we actually do million dollar picks. Let me write that one down. What were your props that you liked?

• 1:59:53Speaker 02

  Dallas Goddard, I'm not sure exactly where the number is at this, at the moment, but I had him over 38 and a half yards. There's incredible case to be made. He has at least 47 rushing yard, receiving yards in the last three games. He's got a full-time role in the offense.

• 2:00:15Bill Simmons?

  So would you go 40 plus yards for him and not 25?

• 2:00:19Speaker 02

  I'm fine. I'm fine with 40 plus. I mean, I'm sure that ramps up the, the odds. I think that he's going to be a big time priority for Hertz, especially if he's hurt, which is, you know, a terrible thing, but he is the, the safety valve for, for, for Jalen Washington against tight ends this season. 26 in DVOA and you know, he, he's the guy that, that occupies kind of a short area. So he'll, he'll get the touches. I'm, I like him over his receptions, which I think is three and a half, and I like him over his receiving yards as well.

• 2:00:52Bill Simmons?

  I really have enjoyed betting him over the last few years in the playoffs because when he's actually healthy, he gets the ball and he gets the ball in big spots. And I always feel good about having him in there. What else do you have?

• 2:01:04Speaker 02

  I love Mahomes' longest pass completion over 34 and a half yards. We talked a little bit about how the Bills have those injuries in the secondary. Since week 14, and this is not tied to injuries, Buffalo is 29th in drop back EPA. So teams are able to pass the ball. We watched this with our own two eyes with Lamar Jackson and that Baltimore offense. The Bills have allowed the fourth most passing yards since week 14. Third most per attempt on throws of 20 yards or more. And Lamar had, he went three of five on 20 yard or more pass attempts.

• 2:01:47Speaker 02

  Both Rashad Bateman and Isaiah Likely had catches over 35 yards last week. And what I especially am keying in on here is Mahomes with the compliment of receivers that we haven't really seen them. We haven't, this is an element of the Chiefs offense we haven't really seen. And we know, we intuit that the Chiefs show up to a game like this with a wrinkle that we haven't really seen. I think he's dying to get the ball down the field. 34 and a half. It was minus 108 on FanDuel when I typed this in.

• 2:02:18Bill Simmons?

  Wow, I really like that one, House.

• 2:02:22Bill Simmons?

  House, good job.

• 2:02:23Speaker 02

  Thank you.

• 2:02:24Bill Simmons?

  Go, go take a dump and come back and we'll do million dollar pick. No, I'm kidding.

• 2:02:29Bill Simmons?

  All right. So we have some good ones. Is there anything else? Is there any kicker stuff we want to do? Nothing?

• 2:02:33Speaker 02

  No, under no. So Jake Elliott to miss a point after. Yes, that mother effort. I mean, that was the difference between a six point, you know, non-spread and a seven point cover. Got to do Josh Allen over rushing yards at 47 and a half. You got to, I think you have to play that.

• 2:02:49Bill Simmons?

  I always feel like I lose on those. You don't, do you like the unders in both of these games or is it just me?

• 2:02:55Speaker 02

  I think Kansas City and Buffalo have the

• 2:02:58Bill Simmons?

  Could get frisky?

• 2:02:59Speaker 02

  They could, yeah, for sure. Because I, I mean, you know, Buffalo, I think will be able to run the ball.

• 2:03:05Bill Simmons?

  So that's 48 and a half that over and then the other one, Philly, Washington is 47 and a half.

• 2:03:09Speaker 02

  So that, that Kansas City Buffalo number moved. It was 47 and a half earlier this week. So people are catching on to this over.

• 2:03:17Bill Simmons?

  I think both these games are going to be very similar with these teams methodically going down and trying to keep the other team's offense.

• 2:03:23Speaker 02

  Could be.

• 2:03:23Bill Simmons?

  Off the field. All right, let's do it. Last but not least, do you, do you like Washington plus six and a half with juice? It's minus 120 on Fanduel or Washington plus five and a half even odds?

• 2:03:37Speaker 02

  Oh, I much prefer six and a half to five and a half.

• 2:03:40Bill Simmons?

  Okay.

• 2:03:41Speaker 02

  Six is a key number as we just watched on Sunday.

• 2:03:46Bill Simmons?

  We did just watch it on Sunday. All right, it's time.

• 2:03:52Bill Simmons?

  The million dollar picks, conference championship weekend, trying to rally. We lost some last week. We lost $585,000, still up. This is why you build the nest egg during the season, still up 1.282 million for this season. Joe House has been helping out a lot of the time. He's decked out in Washington, all his gear. We're going to take the Chiefs. Money line or minus one and a half?

• 2:04:20Speaker 02

  However you like. Could do both. Both are fine by me. You choose.

• 2:04:24Bill Simmons?

  The money line is minus 126 and the minus one and a half is minus 112. And I would just rather take the, you, you want to lay the point?

• 2:04:34Speaker 02

  It's fine.

• 2:04:34Bill Simmons?

  And then they, they win 24, 23 and, and.

• 2:04:38Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 2:04:39Bill Simmons?

  I'm laying the money line. I'm paying the juice.

• 2:04:41Speaker 02

  Fine, fine, fine.

• 2:04:43Bill Simmons?

  Chiefs minus 126. We are not betting against the infrastructure. I did it last year on million dollar picks in the AFC title game. And I just said, never again, never again, never again. At least while they have this iteration of them. Chiefs minus 126 over the Bills. 300K?

• 2:05:02Speaker 02

  Yeah, yes. Yeah.

• 2:05:05Bill Simmons?

  And then?

• 2:05:07Bill Simmons?

  Houses, Washington, he officially said it's okay to call them the commanders.

• 2:05:11Speaker 02

  I'm, I'm saying it. They are the Washington commanders because they, they took that name from the colonoscopy juice toilet and they propped it up. It, it, this name belongs to this guy right here, number five over my left shoulder and it's, and he is the commandant of the commanders. This is the Washington commanders. I'm here for it. Hail to the C words.

• 2:05:36Bill Simmons?

  We are banking on a close game and we are grabbing Washington plus six and a half at minus 120. This feels to both of us and House has been very respectful of not veering too hard pro Washington. And even there was a couple of weeks where I felt like you were intentionally not taking them because you were being jinx rules.

• 2:05:56Speaker 02

  Could be.

• 2:05:57Bill Simmons?

  I just felt like either team can win this game. There's cases for both. I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles won by 28.

• 2:06:02Speaker 02

  Me either.

• 2:06:03Bill Simmons?

  I wouldn't be surprised if the, if Washington won by 10. I'm prepared for anything. That means take the points, putting 300K in that. We are going to do some 25K props, including Mahomes, longest pass, 34.5 yards, 35 yard Mahomes pass, we win. Mahomes over four and a half carries, minus 128. Josh Allen TD, minus 115.

• 2:06:27Speaker 02

  Of it.

• 2:06:29Bill Simmons?

  We're doing 25K on Kelsey, 68 plus yards with KC to win, plus 202.

• 2:06:37Speaker 02

  Great.

• 2:06:38Bill Simmons?

  And then the Mac Daddy one, we're putting 50K on this one.

• 2:06:42Speaker 02

  Let's go.

• 2:06:43Bill Simmons?

  It's a, it's a fiver. Now let's put 33K on this one, actually.

• 2:06:47Speaker 02

  Great, great.

• 2:06:48Bill Simmons?

  Just for good luck.

• 2:06:49Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:06:50Bill Simmons?

  Shout out to the legend Larry Bird. Kelsey, 50 plus yards. Hollins, one catch. Daniels, 250 pass rush combined. Dallas Goddard, your guy, 40 plus yards. Eckler, 40 plus yards rushing, receiving combined. That is plus 522. Over five to one odds. Boom.

• 2:07:14Bill Simmons?

  And then just for the hell of it, I'm putting 25K on a KC Washington Super Bowl.

• 2:07:18Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 2:07:19Bill Simmons?

  Plus 518. Just because we built this nest egg all year.

• 2:07:23Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:07:24Bill Simmons?

  At the craps table, I'm just throwing shit all over the place. Why not?

• 2:07:29Bill Simmons?

  If you have a seat for House in a pro Washington suite, which there's probably two of them in Philadelphia. Hit his Twitter. He's available.

• 2:07:37Speaker 02

  I will be there. I am definitely available. I will be at this football game by hook and by crook. I haven't yet figured out how I'm going to get through the turnstile. I will not be wearing any identifying Washington garb. I can tell you that much, but I am available.

• 2:07:51Bill Simmons?

  Maybe some Washington underwear.

• 2:07:52Speaker 02

  For me. I promise I won't eat all of the food in the suite. I promise. I promise.

• 2:07:57Bill Simmons?

  And nobody's allowed to punch House. House is old.

• 2:07:59Speaker 02

  Left hand up.

• 2:08:00Bill Simmons?

  Those are the million dollar picks for week. What week is this? 21? Week 21, conference championship. House, good luck. We're all room for you.

• 2:08:10Speaker 02

  Thank you, buddy.

• 2:08:13Bill Simmons?

  All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to McShay and House. Thanks to Sarudy and Kyle and Gahow. As always, don't forget you can watch videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. We also had Kevin O'Connor doing fake trades with me on Wednesday. If you missed that podcast, so we put up two in 24 hours. I will see you on Sunday night, right after Chiefs Bills, live Bill Simmons podcast. Go check it out on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. Have a great weekend.

• 2:09:05Bill Simmons?

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• 2:09:39Bill Simmons?

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• 2:10:21Bill Simmons?

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