Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House

In Part 2 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House and Sheil Kapadia to discuss each of the Round 2 NFL playoff games (3:22) before making the Million-Dollar Picks for the NFL divisional round (55:33). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Joe House and Sheil Kapadia Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Bill Simmons?

  Hey, Wemby and the Spurs are going to be in Austin next month and I decided I wanted to see Wemby in Texas and I have to go. I'm going to see him live, but while I'm in town, let's get together, let's do a live show. Paramount Theater in Austin on Wednesday, February 19th. Tickets go on sale tomorrow at 10 a.m. Central time. Again, live, Austin, Wednesday, February 19th, Paramount Theater, some special guests. Basically, the BS Podcast just doing its thing. Tickets go on sale Saturday at 10 a.m. Central time. Details will be available at the ringer.com/events very soon. Hope to see you there. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season. Uber Eats is delivering deals every game day. This week, get 10 free boneless wings from Wingstop on qualifying

• 0:45Bill Simmons?

  orders. Game on, flavor on, Wingstop is here. So if your fantasy league is coming over for some in-person smack talk, order Wingstop on Uber Eats and get 10 boneless wings free. It's the perfect way to keep everyone fed tonight so you can focus on the game. No matter who scores big tonight, you'll score a great deal. Order now and get 10 boneless wings free from Wingstop only on Uber Eats. Offer valid from September 14th to September 27th and from November 2nd to November 16th. Order minimum before taxes and fees is required. See retailer's storefront for details. Taxes, fees, and terms apply. Product availability varies by region. Exclusions may apply. See app for details. This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Whether it's a pumpkin spice coffee that

• 1:30Bill Simmons?

  goes splat in your seat or a weekend tailgate that leaves your trunk full of gear and who knows what, you're going to want WeatherTech in your vehicle. Whether you call it fall, autumn, or spooky season, whether the mess is your fault, the kids, the dogs, or the weather's fault, you're going to want WeatherTech for American-made floor liners and a cargo liner that laugh in the face of fall weather. Visit weatherTech.com today. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed part one of this podcast, we put it up earlier today and it was a midseason power poll. That I got a lot of takes off on and really had a good time. And then Joel Anderson and Van Lathan joined me to talk about college football and a whole bunch of other stuff. The Ohio State Notre Dame game, Joel's five favorite things.

• 2:12Bill Simmons?

  Really fun pod, but we had to keep going because football is happening this weekend. Round two NFL playoffs. I have Sheil Kapati and Joe House joining us. We're going to break down every game, our favorite parts of each matchup, and then we're going to do some million dollar picks. I mentioned I wanted to talk about the wildfire recovery efforts out here in Southern California. I wanted to pass, look, there's a lot of great things happening. I wanted to pass along five charities that I really like. The Wildfire Recovery Fund, which is calfund.org. It's set up by the California Community Fund. That's just trying to get money to all the places we need as the Southern California is obviously in a major, major crisis right now. The SoCal Fire Fund, which you can find at eifoundation.org, eifoundation.org.

• 2:56Bill Simmons?

  It provides immediate and long-term support for community-centered recovery initiatives that aid students, school employees, and families impacted by the January 2025 fires. The third one is the LAFD Foundation Emergency Fire Fund, which you can find at supportlafd.org. They provide vital equipment and fund critical programs to help the LAFD save lives, protect communities. Then there's World Central Kitchen, wck.org. Their relief team is in Southern California right now, supporting first responders and families impacted by wildfires in the LA area. They have a link at the top when you go right to WCK to help Los Angeles specifically.

• 3:35Bill Simmons?

  And then last but not least, Habitat for Humanity, which has really gotten involved in the last week. They have a disaster response fund set up on their website at habitat.org for the wildfires. So I'm committing $250,000 total, 50K apiece to the five that I just mentioned. And if you're listening, do whatever you want, do whatever you can. There's no right answer for any of this, but that is, that's what I'm doing at least. All right, we are going to talk football right now with Sheil and House. Stay safe out there in Southern California. Hope, hope everybody is good. We're going to talk some football right now. First, our friends from Pearl Jam.

• 4:36Bill Simmons?

  All right, we're taping this. It is Thursday afternoon Pacific time. Joe House is here because we do Million Dollar Picks. We did not get to do them last week. We're going to try to bounce back strong this week. And we brought in the real star of the Ringer Sunday Pregame Show, Sheil Kapadia, who comes in every couple of weeks like Dion Waiters and just crushes it. Big heat checks from you. Congrats on that.

• 4:57Speaker 01

  Yeah, I said, you know, on the show, Indian Timothy Chalamet, you know, he goes on game day and just goes in, crushes it, disappears. I feel like that was my role on the Ringer Wise Guys.

• 5:07Speaker 02

  I mean, respectfully, everybody loves winners. We love having Sheil on. Sheil comes on, all he does is give out winners. But respectfully, if you're picking one thing a week, like, some of these winners were Deshaun Watson unders, like, uh, uh, okay. A.J. Brown on, you know, catches the week after he complained. He bitched like, oh, is A.J. Brown gonna get, yes. Again, we love winners.

• 5:31Bill Simmons?

  Sheil, this is what success looks like. Success comes with the backlash. You're feeling the backlash now.

• 5:37Speaker 01

  Minus 110 or better. Listen, that's all I look at. And then I go with the pick. I'm retiring on top. Thank you.

• 5:43Bill Simmons?

  Can we go right to the Eagles Rams game? We're gonna break down all four games. Sheil is a Philly student. You can see him on the Ringer Philly Special sometimes. So I do the Playoff Manifesto, and I'm gonna read all the rules in a second. The Playoff Manifesto goes back to the late 90s. I've been honing it, cultivating it, working it, adding rules, taking out rules. Eagles Rams has more manifesto rules attached to it than any playoff game I can ever remember.

• 6:13Speaker 01

  Wow.

• 6:13Bill Simmons?

  It has red flags. It has come hither, this is good. It is all over the map, which is what I can imagine you're probably feeling with this Eagles game, right?

• 6:25Speaker 01

  I actually feel like they're gonna win pretty handily in this game.

• 6:29Bill Simmons?

  Oh my god.

• 6:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm and I'm not usually like that. I've been on the on the fence. I wasn't sure about that Packers game. I feel pretty confident that the Eagles are gonna win this game. So I need to hear the violations they have going in.

• 6:42Bill Simmons?

  So we gotta go through the manifesto. Before we do, House, you're leaning Eagles, you're Eagles-ish too for this game, correct?

• 6:48Speaker 02

  I'm I'm beyond Eagles-ish. I'm I'm full on Eagle hump. I mean, it's go Birds, go. I I think that this is a terrible spot for the Rams. I think that the Eagles have advantages on both sides of the the the line, both defensive line and offensive line. It's like, we're playing in the in the freezing effing cold and and I know the team that has the better lines. Let's let's let's go. Let's let's go get a W.

• 7:12Bill Simmons?

  35 degrees, maybe worse. Rain and snow, potentially. Matthew Stafford, coming from LA. I'll go through some of the manifesto rules, because it really is eye opening. Rule number one, beware of the looked a little too good, the previous playoff round team.

• 7:31Bill Simmons?

  That couldn't be more Ramsey. Rule number three, beware of the nobody believes in us team. Don't try to talk yourself into one either. I think the Rams are trying to, there's a nobody believes in us case. Rule number four, a sad one, but beware of any team that might use a major off field distraction as a galvanizing force leading up to a game. We saw that last week, the Rams, all that, all the terrible stuff in LA. It really seemed like it affected them in the game positively. Rule number six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win. I'm gonna stop there before I keep going with the rules. Do the Rams genuinely have a chance to win, Sheil?

• 8:09Speaker 01

  I don't think they have a great chance. The Eagles have not lost a game that Jalen Hurts has started and finished since September 29. Week four, we've gone through this whole season where you're watching them, you're going, this passing game kinda sucks sometimes. Every drop back is resulting in a sack or a throwaway. And then their talent usually just overwhelms the opponent. There's one play by A.J. Brown, or Saquon Barkley, or last week it's Dallas Goddard, or Devante Smith. It's like, they don't have to be efficient down to down. And then what House said, they've got probably the best offensive line in football. So I add all those things up. And with as conservatively as Jalen Hertz is playing right now, for better or worse, they're not a team who's gonna like,

• 8:51Speaker 01

  give the game away. So every team always has a chance. We know that. But when you read that one out loud, that that really rang true to me.

• 8:59Bill Simmons?

  House is Sam Darnold. Is it true he's living in your attic right now?

• 9:03Speaker 02

  I mean, he's welcome. And by the way, he's still gonna get a great contract. It's not going to be the massive contract, but still, I mean, a couple of years, 25 million bucks, you could do worse. I mean, congratulations to him. What was his best hoped for outcome when he took the ball on first down, the first play of this season? I mean, I think if you told him, how about another couple of years and 25 million bucks? Are you good with that? I think he might have said yes.

• 9:28Bill Simmons?

  Unfortunately, it was the sports movie for him where the final scene was him, his teammates lifting him up after the Packers game and going nuts. And the movie should have just ended. But there was 20 minutes to go in the movie. And he got his ass kicked against the Lions and the and the and last week against the Rams. Sheil, we didn't talk about this on the pod, at least with you. Were you surprised that Darnold cratered like that? Because he roped me in. He roped me in. He roped Salin. Did he rope you in? He kinda half roped you in, right, House? Darnold?

• 10:03Speaker 02

  Well, sure, a little bit. I mean, the thing that we couldn't divine on our own, it just revealed itself, is that that offensive line for the Vikings suffered injuries on the left side that created some mismatches for both Detroit and for the Rams.

• 10:23Bill Simmons?

  And he couldn't.

• 10:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, he couldn't. There was no, he held the ball too long. He froze. He went back to his old DNA.

• 10:29Bill Simmons?

  But why didn't that happen against Green Bay? Sheil, what happened?

• 10:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, I wrote on the Ringer in like week 14, I had this piece that said the Vikings can't make the Daniel Jones mistake with Sam Darnold. And then the next three weeks, he was awesome. And I'm like, shoot, I might have screwed that one up. And I think if you zoom out, I think part of it's what House said. I think part of it is, we probably overrated that Vikings passing game. I mean, in the regular season, they were 14th in passing DVOA. They were like statistically in the mediocre range. And then they have these two games where you have some protection issues and a lot of what they did was based on the explosive passing game. And if he's holding on to the football and that's taken away, their run game was never really that efficient. They weren't that methodical. So yeah, I got roped back in. I thought they were gonna win that game. I thought that Lions

• 11:15Speaker 01

  game was kind of a blip on the radar and they were trending in the right direction. But it was kind of two games in a row where, you know, the ghost of Sam Darnold came back a little bit.

• 11:25Bill Simmons?

  I stayed at the craps table too long with Sam Darnold and with the, with the Steelers heading into December. Just should have taken my chips, gone with House to get some food, some 2 a.m. pizza, and just would have been super happy with it. Hey, House, when he said the, the Daniel Jones mistake, which I think is a great way to frame it, that's basically been the philosophy of the Washington Wizards for the last 40 years, right? The Daniel Jones mistake. This guy showed some hope. Here's a lot of money. Oh shit, we shouldn't have done that.

• 11:57Speaker 02

  Are we, why is there Wizards violence on this football podcast?

• 12:00Bill Simmons?

  I'm saying, I didn't know if that resonated.

• 12:02Speaker 02

  Who cares about the Wizards?

• 12:03Speaker 01

  I thought maybe it was, I didn't know if Daniel Jones was the guy starting for the Sixers tomorrow night because none of their guys play. So I was a little confused there. I'm glad you took the shot at the Wizards, not the Sixers. Thank you.

• 12:14Bill Simmons?

  Well, you know, Embiid, he'll be back eventually when there's that four really tough games in five. When do you play Charlotte? Embiid's gonna be back for that one.

• 12:21Speaker 02

  Circle it.

• 12:22Bill Simmons?

  He's got Charlotte circled. Is there a Toronto game? Oh, I'll play against Toronto. That's great. All right, more manifesto rules. We're not even done with this game. Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather. Yikes. Rule number eight. Beware of any and all aging QBs in cold weather unless they drink half their body weight in water and like 40 things Tom Brady did. Rule number 15. This is working against the Eagles, Sheil.

• 12:52Speaker 01

  Okay.

• 12:53Bill Simmons?

  Make sure the team with a home field advantage actually has a home field advantage. Philly's in that weird zone. The fans, they get fickle really fast. They get upset really fast. There's an ornery vibe in that stadium. Does that, do you feel that changes this week with the snow and the rain, or does it get worse?

• 13:12Speaker 01

  Yeah, I was in the stands those early 2000s when they had the McNabb teams and they were favorites against the Bucks and the Panthers and the fan base was so confident going into those games. And then you saw what happened. So really it comes down to early in the game. If you have a few three and outs, no, it doesn't change. This is in our DNA. This is what it's going to be like. But I think there's also a possibility that Saquon Barkley has a 35 yard run in the first quarter and all of a sudden the place is going bonkers and they don't actually have to worry about that. But yes, to answer your question, it could go either way if they get off to a slow start.

• 13:45Bill Simmons?

  It's the only out of the four home games, House. It's the only crowd that I feel like you might be able to take out in the first quarter. I don't feel like you're taking out Buffalo. KC's been there too many times. Detroit's gonna be a madhouse. I don't feel like that crowd's gonna get nervous. But I feel like you can get to the Philly crowd because there's that motto of the Eagles, that first quarter, 39 seconds of play. It's just, it just feels clumsy and discombobulated. It's 0-0 after the first quarter. Don't you think, House? Like there's, there's a world.

• 14:15Speaker 02

  Well, that's been the script all season. They're among the bottom teams in the NFL in terms of scoring in the first quarter. So they're not coming out and instilling confidence. They're not coming out and kicking ass. Now, they did score a touchdown within the first three minutes of the first quarter of this most recent game, but that's because of, you know, the bogus fumble that happened. And that was the only touchdown of the first half. And so like, if you want to be frustrated with the Eagles getting going, I think, I hope, I don't know, the good people of Philadelphia, having seen Hertz get his, the rust off a little bit with that Green Bay game, they'll be patient and understand the best way for the Eagles to win this football game is to just run the football down the Rams throat

• 14:58Speaker 02

  and do it, do it and do it. And it may take a little while to get the battering in place that that is their pathway. But Philly doesn't really strike me as a place that has a lot of patience.

• 15:10Bill Simmons?

  The only thing I didn't believe about everything you just said is when you said the good people of Philadelphia. You don't like Philadelphia.

• 15:16Speaker 02

  Wow.

• 15:17Bill Simmons?

  You don't.

• 15:18Speaker 02

  Buddy.

• 15:18Bill Simmons?

  You don't like Philadelphia. You don't.

• 15:20Speaker 02

  Philadelphia. Here's the thing.

• 15:21Bill Simmons?

  You're from Washington. Why would you like Philadelphia?

• 15:23Speaker 02

  Over the years, I've softened because of two things. There is incredible golf. Super underrated golf in the Philadelphia area. I got to play Marion, um, last year. Marvelous. But yes, the food in Philadelphia, again, crazy underrated. The food in Philadelphia, this we should go to. I did a Philadelphia food tour with Chris Ryan.

• 15:42Bill Simmons?

  I know.

• 15:42Speaker 02

  Five or six years ago on the House of Carbs because, and the scene just keeps getting better and better. So I have my soft spots for Philadelphia.

• 15:50Bill Simmons?

  Yeah. So it's basically just all selfish food and golf, the two things you care about.

• 15:54Speaker 02

  Hello.

• 15:54Bill Simmons?

  That's how to win over Joe House. Sheil, you agree with the food, food scene?

• 15:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, I want in on all of this house. Next time you come, Marion is about 15 minutes that way.

• 16:02Speaker 02

  Hey.

• 16:03Speaker 01

  I'm pointing here. Uh, and then, you know, obviously, uh, house eating. I mean, whether I'm observing or participating.

• 16:10Speaker 02

  You're participating.

• 16:11Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:12Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 16:13Speaker 01

  Yeah. Over a decade, I've been hearing about the legend.

• 16:15Bill Simmons?

  It starts out with participating and then it turns into observing. After, at about the 45 minute mark, when everyone else is finished and house is still eating somehow.

• 16:25Speaker 02

  Guilty. Guilty as charged.

• 16:27Bill Simmons?

  Two more rules. Take one last look at the quarterbacks and remember there's plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach. This is specifically a Hertz question. So I know, is Hertz, what does he command on your tech, on your Eagles text thread, Sheil? How much of the conversation is what's up with Hertz? Like 40%, 20%? What is it?

• 16:50Speaker 01

  Yeah, it's probably, it might be over 50% and the conversation has been, is it Hertz or is the coaching terrible? Because you'll be looking at the film and all that and everyone's pointing out, no one's open and they're running the same play seven times in a game. And it's like, what are they doing? And then you watch some of these other offenses and they're beautiful and guys are getting schemed wide open. So that's the big argument right now. In addition to can this team win the Super Bowl? You know how, yeah, how Philadelphia is.

• 17:17Bill Simmons?

  Well, the defense you have.

• 17:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, the defense is awesome. Everybody's. Happy with the defense. Everybody's happy with the offensive line. Saquon Barkley might have the highest approval rating of any Philadelphia athlete right now.

• 17:29Bill Simmons?

  Oh, wow.

• 17:29Speaker 01

  And he's only been there for a year.

• 17:30Bill Simmons?

  Who's this competition for that?

• 17:32Speaker 01

  Uh, Bryce Harper.

• 17:33Bill Simmons?

  How about this? Nobody on the Sixers.

• 17:35Speaker 01

  No, uh, Maxi, everybody, everybody still loves Maxi. Um, so Maxi is on there.

• 17:40Bill Simmons?

  Whatever.

• 17:41Speaker 01

  Bryce Harper is there.

• 17:42Bill Simmons?

  Bryce.

• 17:43Speaker 01

  And then it, yeah, but I, I think Saquon Barkley has only been there for a year, but I said, it's the best offensive season for a Philadelphia Eagle since I've been alive. And, and I think that's true. And so I think, yeah, he, he's kind of taken over the fan base.

• 17:56Bill Simmons?

  Is there any explanation for the, the, the weird pace of the Eagles offense and the lack of unpredictability and just how there's a sameness to every drive? There's a methodical nature to it and they never zag. They never keep you on your toes. Why do they do it that way? I, I just don't understand it as a football fan.

• 18:17Speaker 01

  I think Sirianni has this like Bobby Knight saying in his office. That's like the, the team that makes the fewer mistakes wins or, or you, whatever, whatever the quote is. That's how they play. Like if you watch this last game, they are running the ball on every third and long. They're, they're being conservative, uh, on fourth down. If Jalen Hurts has an opportunity to throw the ball to A.J. Brown and he's not sure this year, he is just tucking the football, throwing it away and running. And so everything they do is kind of like, hey, our defense is awesome. Saquon's going to break one eventually. Let's not give the game away. And so I think that's why it looks like that.

• 18:53Bill Simmons?

  So like just save as few plays as possible. Keep the clock moving. Do you agree with that, House?

• 18:58Speaker 02

  I, I kind of do. It does fit the, um, you know, the personnel that, that the Eagles have. We did think that, that Kellen Winslow was going to come in as a whiz bang guy and, and really show, uh, you know, some, open up that offense in a way that, um, who was the poor guy that got run out of town last year?

• 19:16Speaker 01

  Brian Johnson. Yeah.

• 19:17Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah. But there was a lot of just bad taste left in the mouth from the Ron Johnson, uh, experiment.

• 19:24Bill Simmons?

  And Brian Johnson.

• 19:26Speaker 02

  All of them. All the Johnsons.

• 19:27Bill Simmons?

  Anyone named Johnson.

• 19:28Speaker 02

  Bad Johnson in the mouth. That's all I could say.

• 19:31Bill Simmons?

  Possible new rule. This is not in the manifesto. I'm just gonna throw it out here. It's a possibility. Possible new rule. Beware of any home playoff favorite with a frustrated fan base that might kind of hate the team, coach and/or QB.

• 19:48Speaker 01

  Yeah, I don't think they're there. I think they like the team a lot because

• 19:51Bill Simmons?

  Okay, good. Yeah, I'm checking. This is all right.

• 19:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, they like the team a lot. It's probably split on Hertz and it's probably split on Sirianni, I would say.

• 20:00Bill Simmons?

  So for the lean for a million dollar picks, I think House and I, we were talking about it earlier. If I had to bet it straight up, I would take the Eagles and I think the Rams won their game. I think everyone, the biggest manifesto rule is, boy, are the team that looked too good last week. I think they fit. I like them more in a teaser or a parlay, though, and I think that's the play with them. And if, you know, if they screw us, they screw us. But I think that's the way to go. You, are you safe with that, Sheil?

• 20:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, this would be, this would go down as one of the darker upsets at home. And now there have been some of those in recent Philadelphia sports memory. I think they're justifiably six and a half point favorites in this game. I would be, they could lose, but I would, I would be surprised if they lost this game.

• 20:47Bill Simmons?

  And House, you're on board with that?

• 20:49Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I think the Eagles are gonna win. I don't mind laying the six and a half. But if you want to tease them from six and a half down to a half and just have them, you know, win outright, I'm not going to argue with you.

• 20:59Bill Simmons?

  Let's do Chiefs Texans really quick. Chiefs minus eight and a half over the Texans.

• 21:06Bill Simmons?

  I still feel like if they call the intentional grounding on Stroud, or if that fumble shotgun that goes over his head, bounces to the left and the Chargers are up 13-0, that game's probably over. It was like it gave Stroud the superpower. I wasn't really impressed with either of those teams. Meanwhile, you got Casey, three wins from a three-peat. Andy Reid could have 29 playoff wins by mid-February. Mahomes could be 18-3 in the playoffs by mid-February. They're plus 350 for the Super Bowl, which seems high, because I think, I clearly think they're gonna win this game. And now you're just, you basically have plus 350 for two games. The, the one that jumped out to me, though, this was in the Bundo's column about how Casey has failed to cover every seven-plus spread this season.

• 21:53Bill Simmons?

  0 and 7, even though they won all of those games, Sheil. So this looks like the classic, just put them in a tease parlay because this is just what they do. They win by seven, they win by four, they win by three. And yet, I like how the Chiefs look lately. This is the best version of them we've seen this year. Could this be a little bit of a breakout party for them? Where are you leaning?

• 22:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, DeBundo scared me with that one too, in his column. But I feel the same way. I feel like the Chiefs have a lot of things going for them in this game. Like, the way they want to play is get the ball out quickly, methodical drives downfield. And that's the way you want to play against a team that has a great pass rush with the Houston Texans. So this isn't going to be like a new thing for them where they got to play left-handed or whatever. That's how they want to play. And to your point, that's how they were playing down the stretch of the season, where it was just long, methodical drives, the ball's not hitting the ground, Mahomes' short completions go down the field. So I like them offensively there. And then defensively, CJ Stroud is 29th against the Blitz this year. When you look at all the efficiency numbers, I like to look at Chiefs Blitz at the fifth highest rate in the NFL. So I'm with you.

• 22:59Speaker 01

  I didn't watch that Texans game last week. I wasn't like, wow, I feel differently about their offense. This was the worst offense of any team that made the playoffs by DVOA. And so I think they're going to have issues offensively. I think there's a chance they could ugly up the game a little bit with their defense and their pass rush. But I like the Chiefs, but I think you're right. If it is a slow game, maybe bump the Chiefs down and do do a teaser.

• 23:23Bill Simmons?

  So Chiefs, eighth run, eighth against the run, fourth QB hits, six QB hurries, 11th tackles behind the line of scrimmage. House, there's a random non-nerd sports hack talk case with Mahomes, where it's been Lamar and Josh for three, four weeks here.

• 23:46Bill Simmons?

  And Mahomes is kinda shoved to the side. He's like, old guy Mahomes, even though he was like 27, 28. But it's like, oh yeah, and Patrick Mahomes. But the, all the hype with this Lamar versus Josh and everyone talking about them the whole year and the Ravens and they're the best team. And it's just fucking fuel for that. We, everything we know about Mahomes, this is absolute fuel for this dude. And I wonder if this is, uh, he pulls it out this week, House.

• 24:12Speaker 02

  I love this.

• 24:12Bill Simmons?

  And he waves it around and he does the lasso and he's like, this is the first game of the weekend. Hey, by the way, I'm Patrick Mahomes. And he just does 17 Mahomes things and reminds us how great he is.

• 24:24Speaker 02

  Well, part of what is going to facilitate that is the health, the restored health for Kansas City. Really on both sides of the ball, but definitely, uh, on offense, um, all of their weapons will be available. One of my very favorite bets on the FanDuel Sportsbook is Patrick Mahomes over one and a half passing touchdowns. I, it was like minus 144. I have no issue whatsoever with laying it and I'll probably parlay that with Kansas City to win outright. That's fine. Um, I love the, the, the narrative aspect of this that you're describing BS, which is we're going into a weekend where everybody is absolutely appropriately fantasizing about what's going to come between Josh Allen and, and, and Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. And the first game of the weekend is like,

• 25:09Speaker 02

  y'all, I'm still here. I'm right here. I'm right here.

• 25:12Bill Simmons?

  I'm going for a three-peat, guys. Hey, I'm right, I'm right here.

• 25:16Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 25:16Bill Simmons?

  Winner still has to go through me. I just, I think those certain guys are like Brady was always wired like this and he's talked about it pretty openly. Like these guys take everything personally. They take every slate. They notice everything. They pretend they don't, but they do. Shield, does this add up to it all? This could be an FU performance from Mahomes?

• 25:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, absolutely. It could be an FU playoff run. I mean, they are well positioned. They are monster favorites at home. And then they're going to get to face whichever team lost that Ravens Bills battle and then they're

• 25:43Bill Simmons?

  Which will be a battle.

• 25:44Speaker 01

  Yeah. And then they're potentially in the Super Bowl. So, uh, absolutely from the narrative standpoint, not getting mentioned with, uh, you know, all pro, MVP, all those conversations that happen this time of year. And all they are, are the one seed in the AFC going for a three-peat.

• 25:58Bill Simmons?

  So one bet, and this is something we saw last week with the quarterbacks that you don't want them to run during the first 18 weeks of the season. But when we get to the playoffs, you start using your legs more. And this has been, we, House, we've cashed in on this with Mahomes so many times. Like, he's basically even odds, 25-plus yards this week against Houston. We know he does this in the playoffs. In the playoffs, he starts moving around more, taking more chances, using his legs. So, you know, I thought last week I was mad that I didn't think of that with Lamar. It was so obvious that, of course, they were going to do that. Of course, he was going to use his legs like that. With the Texans,

• 26:40Bill Simmons?

  their D-line's really good. That's the one, like, their ends can put some pressure on, and the Chiefs tackles make me nervous. And as I play the game out on my head shield, that's the one thing I keep coming back to is like, let's say this is just one of those weird, classic, ugly first-half Chief playoff games. They're putting pressure on Mahomes. They get the one-long Nico Collins pass. Chiefs guy fumbles a punt, and all of a sudden, it's like 10-7 Texans at halftime. We're like, what the hell is going on? My T's is in danger. What's happening? I don't see another scenario other than that. Is there anything else we're not thinking of?

• 27:15Speaker 01

  No, that's the biggest thing. Their pressure against those tackles is one. Two is, the Chiefs are 30th in explosive plays. The only teams that create explosive plays at a lower rate than them have been the Raiders and the Browns. So they are going to have to work at it. And if you kind of shrink the game, and all of a sudden, you have a weird fumble or a weird penalty, and you ugly it up that way, then maybe the Texans have an opportunity here. The other thing is, if you still believe in CJ Stroud, and feel like the season has... I still like him. I don't like him here in this spot. Like, if you ask me if we're doing a pod in August, and how do I think he's going to perform? I think he's going to bounce back next year. I don't think he has it this year. But if you think he does have it this year, and he comes in and has him and Nico Collins combined for, like you said, 160

• 28:00Speaker 01

  yards, maybe that keeps him in it. I don't see it with their offensive scheme, their offensive line. I think he's going to have a tough day.

• 28:06Bill Simmons?

  He's an unusual quarterback because during the same game, it can feel like he lost his confidence. And then he completely gained it back and is like has swagger. And it's all happening over the course of three hours and you saw it happen last week. The playoff manifestos for this one, this is a big one, rule number six. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. And this has been something that's been really helpful over the years. And if, look, if you bet, if you pick KC minus eight and a half and they don't cover. The odds of threading that needle between the higher number and then winning like, you know, we call it. I, I'm just, I just want to pick winners and not worry about the Lions. So maybe a little bit less on that, but I don't think Houston has a chance to win. I don't think they're good enough. Um, so that's one.

• 28:52Bill Simmons?

  Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather. Boom Texans. There's a beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 Giants rule. I, I just want, I don't think the Texans remind me of the 2007 Giants, but I just wanted to talk it out. There's a couple similarities, right? Mixon running the ball, kind of a younger erratic up and down quarterback like Eli in 2007. A good pass rush, a really good coach. There's elements, but I'm not willing to go there. Sheila, you agree?

• 29:23Speaker 01

  I don't think so. Yeah, that, that would shock me.

• 29:25Bill Simmons?

  House?

• 29:26Speaker 02

  The Mixon thing especially is, is, is a stretch. Like he, he only runs well against teams that, that are, you know, that permit it and the game script. Like he had 60 of his 100 yards on the last drive of the game, the where Houston really closed out that game. Um, otherwise he, he had a, a, like a very average day. And that's really been the story of, uh, Joe Mixon this entire season. Like they, they came out with an offense that looks super formidable when everybody was healthy. I thought, oh, this is the version of Houston that's going to win this division and maybe win 12 games or something and really be a threat. Um, and then they had the injuries and their offensive line never was up to the task. And that's the problem with Mixon. They're just not, you can't establish the run, um, with, with, with the offensive line that they have.

• 30:10Speaker 02

  And they ain't establishing the run against the Chiefs. I'll tell you that much right now.

• 30:14Bill Simmons?

  Rule number 16 is take one last look at the quarterbacks. Mahomes versus Stroud. Mahomes has lost three times. He lost the D Ford game to Brady, his first year as a starter, where if D Ford doesn't say, it's one of the great breaks in the history of Boston sports, D Ford jumping offsides. You have that. You have him get his ass kicked by Tampa in the Super Bowl where, you know, there's real reasons for that. Tampa's defense was great. They were able to pressure him the whole game. It was a, it was a little bit of a goofy KC season. So that was the second one. And the third one was the game, House and I lost incredible amount of money on when the Bengals beat the Chiefs where Mahomes got concussed at the end of the second quarter and they pretended he wasn't, but something

• 30:55Bill Simmons?

  happened and he was never the same the rest of the game. My point is it's very unusual for Patrick Mahomes to lose in the playoffs. And I feel pretty safe about putting money on him against the Houston Texans, guys.

• 31:05Speaker 01

  Yeah, agreed.

• 31:07Speaker 02

  I think we're unanimous.

• 31:08Bill Simmons?

  Okay, great. We're gonna take a break and hit the other two games.

• 31:13Bill Simmons?

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• 31:55Bill Simmons?

  of the NFL. Must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You know how at the end of the season, your team goes to Cancun? Sometimes earlier than expected, sometimes after blowing a 3-1 series lead. But what if you went to Cancun? With Expedia, save up to 30% when you bundle and save. You can book the flight or the hotel now, then book the rest later. In all fairness, though, hopefully, your team doesn't go to Cancun. 1-2-3 Cancun. Or if they do, you

• 32:36Bill Simmons?

  go with them. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Sign in to save. Savings vary. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes. Yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady, calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group, Incorporated.

• 33:18Bill Simmons?

  PNC Bank, National Association, Member, FTIC. All right, our third game, the Lions against the Washington Seawords, the beloved team of Joe House.

• 33:31Bill Simmons?

  So here are the rookie quarterbacks that have made the conference title game house, the true rookies. Brock Purdy?

• 33:42Bill Simmons?

  Mark Sanchez? Joe Flacco?

• 33:47Bill Simmons?

  Ben Roethlisberger?

• 33:50Bill Simmons?

  Shaun King?

• 33:54Bill Simmons?

  Daniels is the most talented of all of those guys. His team needs him the most out of all of those guys. And I'm just pointing that out because it's so Brady, first year as a starter, made the Super Bowl. Mahomes, first year as a starter, almost made the Super Bowl. So if you think he's on that class, maybe that's a better comparison. Does Daniels have it in him to win two playoff games and drag this team to the conference title game?

• 34:22Speaker 02

  Are you asking me that question?

• 34:23Bill Simmons?

  I am.

• 34:24Speaker 02

  Hell, no. And it's not, it doesn't have anything to do with Jaden Daniels. He doesn't get to play defense. I mean, the problem isn't that the offense, they will have a great game plan and they will do their best to shrink the game. They will try and have long drives. They'll try and have, they'll, they'll try and replicate what they did against Tampa. In that game, both teams had exactly seven possessions. That's the best way for Washington to have a chance. They go, they, they. Every possession is a four down possession. There's no such thing as three downs and punt with Washington unless you know there are

• 35:00Bill Simmons?

  That's like fourth and nine or something. Yeah.

• 35:01Speaker 02

  And and on the very much on the wrong side of of the field. That's exactly right. But but Jayden Daniels can't control the the defense and the defense. God bless them. It's been bend, don't break all season long. They've put that offense in position to go win six consecutive last possession games. The last possession of the game for Washington, they've won. Um, that is, it's an absolute miracle. Uh, and Jayden Daniels is has been a tremendous, like you, you the hyperbole for for his performance, you know, I can't overstate how much um he's done to transform this franchise, but he doesn't play defense. So it's not, it's not up to him.

• 35:41Bill Simmons?

  So everything House just laid out, Sheil. This is why I I'm not betting it because I always lose on over unders, but the over under seems so high to me. It's 55 and a half. The Lions, I think, are 33 and a half, the over under for their total points on Fandel. And I agree with House. I think Washington's going to try to have these long ass drives and try to keep it to seven possessions on each side. And that's it. Why does everybody think this is going to be a shootout?

• 36:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, I I'm I'm with you. I'm with House. House nailed it. Like, an average NFL game, you get 11 possessions in a game. And so everything about this commander's game plan has to be lean into the variance, like House was saying. If it's only seven possessions, and now Jared Goff has a pass deflected at the line of scrimmage that uh, somebody comes down with

• 36:24Bill Simmons?

  Fumbles.

• 36:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, it has a bigger impact. Exactly. And that's how the commanders want to play. Methodical, long drives, uh, run the football, complete passes at a very high rate. So they've got that in them. And then the same thing about the fourth down stuff, like if they're in the red zone, if they're on the, you know, past midfield, they need to be aggressive, a fake punt here and there. Like, when you're an underdog of of this magnitude, and you're facing an offense in such a mismatch with the Lions offense against your defense, uh, I think that's how you have to play. So I don't, I would not go against Jayden Daniels in a big spot. I mean, I don't know that there's another quarterback in the NFC that You say, hey, if you take the Lions here minus eight and a half and it's whatever a three point game,

• 37:08Speaker 01

  a five point game in the fourth quarter and the commanders had fourth and six. Like, I want to be on the Jaden Daniels side on that because he's come through, you know, over and over and over again. And there's a couple schematic things here. I mean, we know how the Lions play man coverage and they want to blitz. Jaden Daniels, very good against man coverage because he can use his legs and he has killed the blitz. This year, like all those rookie quarterbacks you named as you were reeling them off. I'm like, that guy had a great team. That guy had a great team. That guy, like Jaden Daniels doesn't have a great team. He's putting the team on his back. And, uh, yeah, so I, I took the commanders with the points just when I pick, uh, every game. So I, I don't like being on the other side of that guy.

• 37:49Bill Simmons?

  Also in a dome against a not that good defense. It doesn't seem like the crowd's going to bother him because it doesn't seem like anything bothers them. And the amazing thing is how much they fucking trust him, House. Like some of the, some of the things they were asking to do in the second half, it was like, he's like 32 years old. That, that little lob screen pass, that was one of the key plays of the game. That adds up. I mean, nine things can go wrong in that play, but they trusted him and it just seems like over and over again, he has the wherewithal to know what to do in the right spots. He's really exciting. I think the line's too high. Um, I, I'm not going to put like a ton of money on Washington or anything, but I, you know, I was looking at the alt line of Washington plus four and a half is plus 182 on Fanduel.

• 38:34Bill Simmons?

  That, I think this could be a close game. It reminds me of some of the games last year when we had, you know, Green Bay as a, as a big underdog. We had Tampa as a big underdog, with the Rams were an underdog at one point. Like, I, I think they can score and I think even if they're down 14 plus, they can make, you know, get a cheap touchdown down the stretch. I just, I think the line's too high.

• 38:55Speaker 02

  So that, that's the, the case, right? Nine and a half is a big number when you have a quarterback on the other side like Jaden Daniels. And Washington will play this entire game all the way out, right? There's no, they're not going to do an El Foldo. Here. And so even if the Detroit's up 17 points with six minutes. It's left and Washington gets the ball and goes down. They'll, they could score a touchdown and get a two point conversion and you lose your bet because they take it from 17 down to nine and you've lost the nine and a half point cover. It's a great tease candidate. I mean, the, the thing with Detroit that I really believe is going to be the, the big swing here is they're going to establish the run.

• 39:35Speaker 02

  If David Montgomery is back and is, you know, in, in full force, they're going to establish the run and just run the football down Washington's throat. And it, so they might get explosive with it like they might, because if Jameer gets, gets outside, he gets gone, it just could be a couple of quick scores.

• 39:51Bill Simmons?

  That's my fear. Like you just, I always write down all the different stats and see how them teams match up and the offense first defense. And you just see that Washington defense 30th against the run. Detroit sixth with the run and that was without Montgomery the last couple of weeks and they're, the fear would be Detroit just rushing. You know, 49 carries for 270 yards, one of those games. Manifesto rules. Beware of the nobody believes in us team. Is Washington a nobody believes in us team house? Cause it seems like there's belief.

• 40:20Speaker 02

  I think there's belief. I mean, certainly here in, in Washington, and I think, you know, um, Jayden Daniels, this is part of the joy of being a Washington fan. He's captured the national imagination because of, of how, of his stones. He has the biggest balls of, of any athlete in Washington that I can think of. I mean, Ovi came in with, with big balls, but then Sidney Crosby kicked his ass for a while. Ovi finally sort of got the, the Stanley Copper, he's, he's threatening the great ones record.

• 40:48Bill Simmons?

  And Bradley Beal, Bradley Beal was the other one.

• 40:51Speaker 02

  God damn it. Let's just, let's, let's move on.

• 40:54Bill Simmons?

  Well, you're talking about Washington stars with huge balls who came through in big moments. That was the other guy that jumped to mind for me.

• 41:02Bill Simmons?

  You got a bunch of pick swaps for him.

• 41:04Speaker 02

  You're a dick.

• 41:07Bill Simmons?

  Two more manifesto rules. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. I don't necessarily think Washington's gonna win, but I also don't really believe in that Detroit defense either. And part of the calculus, when you think about, we're back in on Detroit, partly because their defense looked so good against Minnesota. And then the Rams, who were 26th in DVOA, also looked awesome against Minnesota and some, where do we stand on the Detroit defense right now? For what we know, guys coming back, all that stuff.

• 41:39Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, you look at the stats and stuff and they're what, top five in DVOA and they got some guys back and they hung in there and they had a great game plan against the Vikings, but I'm sort of with you. I want to see a little bit more. When we saw the Rams do that to the Vikings, I had the same thought like, all right, let me rethink what I think about that Lions defense. So I don't know, I, I think the Lions, I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the postseason began. I still think they're going to win this game, but if you told me, hey, which of these big dogs is going to actually win this weekend? Commanders, Rams or Texans? I'm riding with Jaden Daniels out of those three.

• 42:12Bill Simmons?

  I think I agree with that, House. And I'm not just saying that because you're here.

• 42:16Speaker 02

  I love it. No, I love it. And the case, that's the best case, right? Is that Jaden Daniels and Washington controlling the ball and offense. They play defense by playing great, efficient offense. And that's their best opportunity.

• 42:29Bill Simmons?

  House, is it possible for you to talk about the resurgence of Washington football over the last 12 months without breaking into tears?

• 42:36Speaker 02

  I mean, it's tears, we're beyond tears. Like this is, what it's done for my libido, for my love life, it's just been unbelievable.

• 42:46Bill Simmons?

  It's like a Viagra.

• 42:47Speaker 02

  It's better than that. I'll tell you what, it's better than that.

• 42:51Bill Simmons?

  So Washington ultimately is a football town and this brought it back after Dan Snyder basically injected medicine into everybody's bodies to put them into a medical coma the entire time he was an owner.

• 43:03Speaker 02

  It was worse than that and Danny Heifetz of The Ringer, a great story on theringer.com about the return of Washington as a, as a place where good football can happen. We have this legacy that's unbelievable, you know, 20 years of success that, that a bad owner came in and ruined, he ruined it for, for three generations almost. Like, there are people in, in my life who are like, this is our first playoff win. You know, there are, there are young folks here who never saw any of, of the old glory days with Joe Gibbs and, and, and, you know, the, the high-flying Washington attack. And it's just, you know, this didn't

• 43:44Bill Simmons?

  Now you guys are back.

• 43:45Speaker 02

  Football City, it's back, it's back, yes.

• 43:47Bill Simmons?

  Sheil, when I met House in 1988,

• 43:51Bill Simmons?

  and we, we went to college together, you were a year ahead of me, but 88, 90, 88, 89, 90, 91. And the Washington was like, they're probably the team. They were the, there was a bunch of successful teams in the 80s, but they were the most consistently successful over like a 12-year span, all the way through the Ripken Super Bowl. And that's how I, I knew you as this confident football fan. And then I gradually watched it get beaten out of you.

• 44:17Speaker 02

  Well, it coincided with the Patriots getting good and Tom Brady. Think about how bad that was for me.

• 44:24Bill Simmons?

  Well, we both, we both sucked in the 90s and then it went back. But is it, Sheil, is it weird for you that Washington has hope again? Cause you, you've probably kind of given up on them as an Eagles fan.

• 44:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, when, when I was first following the Eagles, it was those teams you're, you're mentioning and they were better than the Eagles. And there has been this long, I mean, the Giants have been one of the worst teams in the NFL the last decade. The Commanders have been hopeless. Now it's flipping a little bit. I will say, you know, this is a lot of love there for Josh Harris. I mean, if Josh Harris wants to buy the Wizards and give up the Sixers and just be a full-time DC guy, I think that would be okay with the, you know,

• 44:56Bill Simmons?

  Franchise trade.

• 44:58Speaker 02

  Yeah. Philly hates Josh Harris. The Sixers, they, they, they are so out on him as the Sixers owner. I hear it all the time from my Philly people.

• 45:06Bill Simmons?

  It's funny that you could be good at owning one team and then bad at owning the other team.

• 45:09Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 45:10Bill Simmons?

  But it, but it's basically like, you would think it was something of the same skill, skill set. All right. So we're going to lean toward, so Lions in a parlay or tees, we're all good with that?

• 45:20Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 45:20Bill Simmons?

  And then maybe, maybe a little hedge, Washington bet, like a little tiny one house?

• 45:25Speaker 02

  You can do it. I'm not participating. You do it. You do it. You do it.

• 45:30Bill Simmons?

  All right. The big Kahuna. Ravens Bills, which flipped. It was Bills minus one and a half and now it's Ravens minus one and a half, as predicted on this podcast with Sal on Sunday.

• 45:43Bill Simmons?

  There's so many ways to go with this and a couple of people have brought up versions of this, but I feel like I've been alive long enough that I've seen a lot of these. Like, people throw in like the great QB matchups and they they just grab two people who are really good. To me, it's different than a great QB matchup.

• 46:01Bill Simmons?

  It's a point of the career QB matchup, which I think is completely different and a lot more special. Right? So I wrote down like when we were in college, Montana and Elway played in the Super Bowl and it was really meaningful. Elway felt like this one man band. Montana had a chance to be like the greatest ever. And it was like, who's winning this? So just that moment felt important. Elway Favre was really fun. Elway had already won. Favre was kind of the next Elway. Elway's trying to go back to back. Favre's like the next guy. That was like a QB moment. 06, some people would say 03, 04, but Brady wasn't Brady really until 06. I don't personally think. 06, he had nobody. The Colts were the

• 46:43Bill Simmons?

  team. He goes in there in Indianapolis. It's Brady versus Manning. Manning's never beaten him in a big game. Manning comes back from 18. That was awesome. Brady versus Russell Wilson, would you put that in there for where we were with Russell Wilson in 2014 in the Super Bowl, already winning a Super Bowl? Felt like he was heading toward Rogers. Is he not quite good enough, Sheil?

• 47:05Speaker 01

  I think not quite good enough. That was still the defense, I feel like, with the identity of that team.

• 47:09Bill Simmons?

  How do you agree?

• 47:09Speaker 02

  Totally agree with that.

• 47:10Bill Simmons?

  All right, we'll cross out them. 2018, Brady versus Mahomes in KC, AFC title game. And then same thing 2020 when Brady was on the Bucks. That was the last time that Brady Mahomes was like the old, the old Wiz and champion versus the new upstart. This Lamar Josh battle is so unusual because neither guy has won. And they're at this awesome point in their career, even like I mentioned, oh six, 98, Montana Elway, like one side had won. This one, neither guy has won. And it's they're competing against each other for the right to now have to then beat Patrick Mahomes.

• 47:48Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 47:48Bill Simmons?

  It's a really unusual game. Sheil, can you remember any matchup quite like this in football? We've seen it in basketball, but not in football.

• 47:55Speaker 01

  No, this is because of the legacies and they're both still young in their career. So I still think like, there's going to be a lot of narratives that come out of whichever quarterback loses. And I'm probably going to be the nerd being like, relax like that, you know?

• 48:06Bill Simmons?

  Right.

• 48:06Speaker 01

  It wasn't all on that guy. Yeah, they're going to get there eventually. But it's been the same conversation around both these guys, really, to a large degree. They're both among the top two or three MVP candidates pretty much every year. You have them on your team, they get offensive coordinators paid, they get other players paid. It's like they, they are the star of the show and you can.

• 48:25Bill Simmons?

  Well, and they're one of ones too. There's, there's nobody like either guy.

• 48:28Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly. So you have that as well. And so it's just a matter of time before one of them breaks through. I'm not saying either of them is ever going to be there with Mahomes, but I think each of them's going to have their year. And who's it going to be this year? And who has the better supporting cast and who has the better chance? Like, it all comes down to this matchup and how they play in this game.

• 48:49Bill Simmons?

  House, I know how you feel about this game.

• 48:53Bill Simmons?

  This just seems like a terrible matchup for Buffalo.

• 48:57Bill Simmons?

  I just don't like the matchup. It's like a basketball team that's just going against an awesome center and doesn't have enough size to defend the center, right? It's, it's like those three Shaq years in the Lakers where they would just play whoever. They play the Sixers, the Nets, there's, and you just felt like, man, they just, they're the size. I just think Baltimore has too much size for this Buffalo defense. I don't see a world where that Buffalo defense can win the game, which means Allen just has to be. Perfect and has to have one of the great moments of his career, I think, to beat them. You, you agree on the this team stacked for Baltimore angle, right?

• 49:35Speaker 02

  That, that's definitely my point of view. I mean, the, the aspect of it that is so curious and what we'll see in this upcoming offseason, I wonder aloud, is it looks like a Baltimore had, has a defense that is well constructed to compete against Kansas City. I don't think that they could have anticipated what impact Derrick Henry would have on Baltimore and they don't have a defense that is, they just not big enough. They're, they're,

• 50:02Bill Simmons?

  You're talking about Buffalo's defense. Yeah.

• 50:03Speaker 02

  Buffalo, Buffalo's front seven is just too light. They just can't, they can put everybody in the box and that is a terrible predicament to put yourself into because Lamar really does have a next level of confidence. The way that they ran their offense against Pittsburgh last week, they just ran this, this option play.

• 50:24Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 50:24Speaker 02

  It was like a pick and roll and, and Pittsburgh had one kind of solution for it, but this, the, the, just the, the confidence that Lamar demonstrated in his ability to have, make the right choice and just do it. And he, he didn't break a sweat. He just was like, this is the way, and I just think the way that, that Baltimore will get off with Derrick Henry, we're gonna, he's gonna, they're gonna establish. Now, I don't think he's gonna run, have a 90 yard touchdown in the first touch like, like he did when these teams played in the regular season. But I do think they're gonna establish him and I do think he's gonna get his yards and it's gonna come early and then that Baltimore offense opens up and it's just a tough, I mean, I, I'm rooting for a tremendous game, so I want to see the very best out of, out of Josh.

• 51:10Speaker 02

  But I just,

• 51:10Bill Simmons?

  You're a lover of football.

• 51:12Speaker 02

  The field is tilted in my, in my humble estimation.

• 51:15Bill Simmons?

  Sheil, I watched Hard Knocks because they're doing the AFC North, so I actually watched this week's episode. And they had a lot of like behind the scenes stuff of before the game and during the game. And Lamar is just so fucking confident in all the stuff they capture like confident in a way that I just don't remember seeing in the previous things. I think, I think they all know something. They have something special with this combo with the Lamar and Henry that it's just unusual. It's different. It stands out. It's hard to stop and they have a swagger to it. You could just kind of see it. And, and what was really interesting about it, they had Cam Hayward miked and near the end of the first half, when the, when the Ravens got that last touchdown and the Steelers

• 52:00Bill Simmons?

  are on the field and he's like, we gotta try to strip the ball. Like I'm, I'm dead. Like I, like they're wearing us down. We gotta like force a turnover because he knows he was like, they were like killing them. Um, I just don't see why that wouldn't also happen to Buffalo's defense. So is there, what, what world does, does Buffalo win this game?

• 52:21Speaker 01

  All right. Let me make the case for the fine people of Western New York. Josh Allen.

• 52:25Bill Simmons?

  Yeah.

• 52:25Speaker 01

  I mean, narrative, Josh Allen, this was supposed to be a reset year. They get rid of Stefan Diggs. Oh, what no one, people are, people like me are picking the Jets to win the AFC East. All the guy does is put this new cast of characters on his back every week. They win that division going away. And now he gets to the playoffs and he's an underdog at home. He's healthy. He's one of the best quarterbacks we've seen in the last decade and his team is an underdog and everyone's pointing to that week four matchup and the Bills did not have either starting linebacker in that game. They did not have Taren Johnson, their nickel corner, who might be one of their best players on defense. All those guys are back here. And by

• 53:10Speaker 01

  the way, people are forgetting that the Ravens probably are not going to have their leading wide receiver in this game. Zay Flowers did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. So you're looking at two evenly matched teams, one that is healthier, the other that is without its starting wide receiver. Uh, you don't have to be perfect. You don't have to be perfect on defense. Yeah. Derrick Henry's going to get yards. Lamar Jackson is going to get yards. Can the Bills match them possession for possession? And can you get that one key turnover, that one key play on special teams? So. I see the path.

• 53:43Bill Simmons?

  And home field advantage.

• 53:45Speaker 01

  Home, yeah, I see the path for a Ravens blowout. You guys are right. House made the great point that the Bills are small up front and now you have the one team that you do not want to be small up front against and the Ravens could run for over 200. Uh, but I'm not counting up the, I was basically gonna take whichever team was the dog here and just say, I'm going with that. So I was just flipping a coin back and forth, changing my mind all week. But Josh Allen is a home dog, like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes. When these guys are home dogs, I'm just like, take them. If you lose, I'll live with it.

• 54:15Bill Simmons?

  Two playoff manifesto rules. Rule number nine, severely discount anything that happened in the first five to week, six weeks of the season.

• 54:23Speaker 01

  Hmm, that's a good one.

• 54:25Bill Simmons?

  That's a good one. I, I, when we go back to week four, week five, like guys are out, like it's just stupid. I, I always discount that. Rule number 16, take one last look at the quarterbacks. Here's the difference. This isn't just Allen versus Lamar. It's Allen versus Lamar and Henry.

• 54:42Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 54:44Bill Simmons?

  I like James Cook. He's good. The Henry thing is different and especially if they have a lead in the way they can keep it. I also feel like Baltimore's defense is just awesome against the run. And we saw it again, like for Pittsburgh, it was just the all time worst case scenario matchup. So for Allen, I think to beat them, he's gonna have to do stuff with his legs. He's gonna have to use his different receivers. It's gonna be a lot of like moving the ball 10, 11, 12 play drives. I just think Baltimore is the best team, guys. Now, we've been in this spot heading into round two and usually it doesn't work out with whoever we think that team is. I think they're really good. I'm, I'm, and I'm always like a little slow. The catch is the playoff Lamar piece.

• 55:30Bill Simmons?

  And, and what's interesting about this matchup is the stakes for both guys. If one of them really fails in this spot, it's, it's, it's, we talk about legacy a lot in sports, but like Lamar kinda needs this game. Like if he loses this one now with the better team. Then I, then I think it opens up a conversation where, cool, you're the regular season guy, but every year in January, we see the same thing happen. You know, what are you doing wrong? Um, is it, when you talk about playoffs with quarterbacks, Sheil, is that fair to hang the losses on them like we do? Semi fair, a little bit fair? Where do you stand?

• 56:04Speaker 01

  This is where I feel like we've swung too far in like the modern be fair to everyone type of sports analysis. Like when I was a kid, I remember watching like a local Philly sports show and they took a pumpkin and like Michael Jordan hadn't been Michael Jordan yet, and they took a bat and smashed this pumpkin and was like, Michael Jordan hasn't done anything. He's selfish. And I'm like, all right, that was crazy. But also now we're like, you, you can't like this past week, oh, you can't criticize Justin Herbert or Sam Darnold or Jordan Love. It's their offensive line. It's like, all right, that you can tell me a guy had a great regular season. You can show me the film from week 12. When the stakes are at their highest, how do they perform? And I agree that it always, it hasn't been

• 56:48Speaker 01

  all on Lamar Jackson. Last year, Zay Flowers fumbles. Like, we should point that stuff out. But also, when a quarterback doesn't play well in a big spot, and they're in a certain year, and it's not their first or second year in the NFL, I think it is, uh, it is fair to criticize them. So yeah, if these guys go up and down the field, and they both play awesome, and one of them loses, then no, I'm not going to be like, that guy can't win. But if one of them comes out and lays an egg and turns the ball over more than they do in the regular season, and their team loses, then we're allowed to. It's okay. We don't have to be like overly fair to some of these, some of these guys.

• 57:21Bill Simmons?

  I agree. I thought Justin Herbert was reprehensible last week.

• 57:24Speaker 02

  And it was fair to say so.

• 57:25Bill Simmons?

  I don't feel like I criticized him enough.

• 57:27Speaker 02

  He sucked, and Jordan Love sucked, and Sam Darnold sucked. They all sucked. And looked at the quarterbacks, they went, CJ Stroud was excellent. Jayden Daniels was excellent.

• 57:36Bill Simmons?

  For an hour and a half.

• 57:37Speaker 02

  Yeah, well, enough to win the football game. Matthew Stafford was excellent. We're allowed to say that.

• 57:45Bill Simmons?

  We're gonna take a break, then come back and do Million Dollar. But Shil, you're gonna stay on. We'll do Million Dollar picks for round two.

• 57:54Bill Simmons?

  This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Excitement is in the air. That's right. It's the start of NBA season. I can't wait to get together with friends, share some Michelob Ultras and watch Tip Off. Plus, as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action with experiences that make you feel like you're courtside to actual courtside tickets. Enter now for a chance to win at michelobultra.com/courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21+. Begins on October 1st, 2026. Ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry. Entry deadlines, prizes and details. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by State Farm.

• 58:39Bill Simmons?

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• 59:26Bill Simmons?

  All right, million dollar picks, round two. I'm going to throw out some possible bets. Ravens minus one and a half, we talked about. Shields, sounds like he's, you just like the dog. You don't feel like you're, you're just afraid of the game, it seems like.

• 59:38Speaker 01

  I took the Bills in my official picks, but it was a coin flip. So yeah, don't let my opinion there change what you guys think.

• 59:44Bill Simmons?

  I'm sticking with my Malcolm Gladwell blink test on that one. I just, I felt before I even knew what the line was, I was like, I just like the Ravens. I think it's a bad matchup for the Bills. If the Bills were playing the Chiefs, I'd feel better about it. I just don't like the Ravens Bills. So we're probably going to put something on Ravens minus one and a half. There's a couple parlay teaser options with Chiefs, Eagles, Lions on FanDuel. We do a little eight-point tease, even odds.

• 1:00:09Speaker 02

  Oh.

• 1:00:10Bill Simmons?

  We could take the Eagles all the way to plus one and a half. I know, I know it infuriates Rahim to, but it's actually better odds than the money line parlay to do the eight point tees and to bring everything down. There's a seven point tease that's plus 120. And there's a six point tease that's plus 140. So you would have Baltimore, uh, I'm not, sorry, uh, KC minus two and a half, the Eagles minus two and a half.

• 1:00:37Bill Simmons?

  Oh no, the Eagles even Lions minus two and a half. So my, my instinct is the eight point tease and you just have to win the Chiefs. You just have to win the Lions and then you get the free point and a half in the Eagles game and that's even odds and who's gonna fuck us is my instinct. Any, any alarms for either of you?

• 1:00:58Speaker 01

  I feel like if you lose that, you get to watch a Jaden Daniels classic playoff game. I think other than that you're safe, so it'll be worth it.

• 1:01:05Bill Simmons?

  I think that Lions 33 and a half is too high, but I don't want to bet it because I could also see a world where they score like 50 points, but I, I just think it's too high. I think they're trying to sucker you into, it's a lot of points, especially with how we laid out the game. I like the Mahomes 25 plus rushing yards bet. That's one 15 yard scramble when he does the thing where he sticks the ball out at the end and then gets a cheap shot and tries to pretend he got knocked unconscious for a second and try to get the flag and two more scrambles. It's like a four for 27 shield. Does that make sense to you?

• 1:01:40Speaker 01

  I think so. Yeah. And the Texans like to play man covers. They've got good corners. So there, there could be some plays in there where he has to hold on to the football, uh, make a play and he takes off.

• 1:01:50Speaker 02

  So here's my concern and I'm going to make a recommendation. You can't parlay this, but I prefer attempts to yards when it comes to Mahomes because kneel downs count as attempts and kneel downs behind the line of scrimmage detract from your, your rushing total. So if he's in the low 30s and they are running out the football at the end of the game and he kneels down twice, you're all of a sudden in the, in the, you know, uh, real danger zone of getting down to like 24 yards and you lose your bet. The total for rush attempts is four and a half. Three rushes over the course of the game and then two kneel downs. You collect on your bet. Yeah, that's one that I like.

• 1:02:33Speaker 01

  That's a veteran better right there. I feel like I need to take notes. I'm in awe. Like that is a man who has been burned by a kneel down at some point in the last 10, 20, 30 years.

• 1:02:42Bill Simmons?

  She, which one do you like more? The 4.5 runs or the 25 plus yards?

• 1:02:47Speaker 01

  How sold me on the kneel.

• 1:02:50Speaker 02

  You can do both.

• 1:02:51Bill Simmons?

  Yeah, no, I'm doing one.

• 1:02:52Speaker 02

  Can't parlay them, but.

• 1:02:53Bill Simmons?

  That's plus 110 on Fando. I'm gonna mark that one down. So Kelsey and Hopkins to both score touchdowns. Plus 931.

• 1:03:06Bill Simmons?

  Mentioning it. Hopkins to score plus 310.

• 1:03:11Bill Simmons?

  I, it's been interesting watching them integrate him into their offense and it seems like they really like them inside the 10. Or usually it's Kelsey. It seems that they like him too. I've always had bad luck with the TD bets, but I mentioned that. Stafford and Stroud to both throw a pick. So two road QBs against good defenses. Both throw a pick plus 195.

• 1:03:37Speaker 02

  I'm in. I love that one. I think it's, it's, I like the, the two to one odd. Stroud is like crazy. It's like minus 160 for him to throw a pick. It's some crazy number. So you're, this is really a Stafford bet and I don't, what's the, what's the status of Higbee? I mean, is, is he, is he?

• 1:03:55Speaker 01

  I think he's supposed to play, but we don't know. Yeah.

• 1:03:58Speaker 02

  That, that, that's a big.

• 1:03:59Bill Simmons?

  She'll see lukewarm on the, on the double pick that plus 195.

• 1:04:03Speaker 01

  Listen, it's fun. My only concern would be if it's snowy, are they going with a run heavy game plan? And then the Eagles are having one of those drives where it's like the Eagles have possessed the ball for 11 minutes in the city. So he doesn't have the opportunities to throw the pick.

• 1:04:17Speaker 02

  Great point.

• 1:04:18Speaker 01

  But, but listen, it's a little, you don't have to put.

• 1:04:20Bill Simmons?

  It's a sprinkle.

• 1:04:23Speaker 01

  I'm not gonna say no to any bet like that.

• 1:04:26Bill Simmons?

  Henry and Barkley both scored touchdowns plus 134 on Sunday. The little Sunday running back stud touchdown parlay. Henry with Hertz. Bumps to plus 175. Tush pushy. Something. Five yard scramble.

• 1:04:43Speaker 02

  Play both.

• 1:04:44Bill Simmons?

  Hertz TD plus 175.

• 1:04:47Speaker 02

  Play both.

• 1:04:48Bill Simmons?

  Josh Allen touchdown is plus 105.

• 1:04:52Speaker 01

  The other one.

• 1:04:53Bill Simmons?

  Anything jump out?

• 1:04:54Speaker 01

  Well, I do the other that when you were talking about the running backs, I like Saquon and Derrick Henry longest rush Derrick Henry's is like 20.5 Saquon Barkley's is 18 and a half yards. I think both of those guys are going to get the ball a lot and break one of them throughout the course of the game. So that's just if you're worried about getting cheated, like you said, on a touchdown where Saquon Barkley runs it to the one and then they give it to Jalen Hurts. That's one I would look at. I like the Barkley one specifically over 18 and a half yards as his longest rush. So pairing that with something with Henry could make sense.

• 1:05:29Bill Simmons?

  What are the odds on that longest rush? Do you remember?

• 1:05:32Speaker 01

  I can't. I think it's around minus 110 probably.

• 1:05:36Bill Simmons?

  House, have you ever experimented with the longest rush? I feel like I'm doing an exotic tequila shot. That's really exciting. Minus minus 120 for Barkley, 19 and up. And then for Henry, it's probably, I'm going to guess the same. That will be 20 and a half minus 120. So you try to hit both of them, probably split one, maybe lose a little vague or hit both. What do you think, House?

• 1:06:05Speaker 02

  Or lay them, just put them together. I agree with the idea that both of them are going to get them. Both of those teams are committed in a way that, that, you know, the future of the franchise is based on those two dudes going out and getting rushes. They're going to get all the touches. They're going to have all the opportunity. And if we believe in those offensive lines, then they're going to get there.

• 1:06:23Bill Simmons?

  Oh, it's a plus 236.

• 1:06:26Speaker 02

  And now.

• 1:06:28Bill Simmons?

  So need Henry for 21 yards. Barkley for 19.

• 1:06:35Speaker 01

  That's happening. Come on. Put it on the card. Before they change the odds.

• 1:06:38Speaker 02

  Put it on the card. The shield special. Put it on the card.

• 1:06:43Bill Simmons?

  All right. So we're going to add that one plus 236. And then there's some most rushing yards that I thought were interesting. Henry plus 320 Barkley plus 155. The Barkley plus 155 I thought was a little delectable. Gibbs plus 550, but Montgomery's probably going to be back. So I don't know how many carries he's going to get. But the rushing receiving one I really liked was McLaurin. Plus 850 for most most receiving yards this weekend. Hmm.

• 1:07:14Bill Simmons?

  Some garbage time stuff, one long one. House seems dubious.

• 1:07:19Speaker 02

  Well, I, I kinda like it. Um, the, they, I don't know how deep they're gonna try and, and go. It would have to be like a pitch and catch kind of thing, but that's the thing, right? Look at the scripts for the other teams. To me, it might be Xavier Worthy. I honestly think Worthy is gonna get a ton of punches.

• 1:07:38Bill Simmons?

  What do you have, like?

• 1:07:40Speaker 01

  Yeah, I, I have one of my best bets of the weekend is McLaurin over 68 and a half receiving yards. I mean, they're gonna have to, they're gonna have to move the ball. He is by far their go-to target. The Lions don't have a number one corner. The Lions don't play the type of defense where they're gonna put a safety over top of him. They're gonna say, we can be aggressive and play man coverage. I had McLaurin last week, uh, and it was, uh, it was fruitful. He had it very early in that game. And you're right, two of these games are in bad weather, you know, potentially Buffalo and Philadelphia. So now if you, and maybe even Kansas City. So you get the weather aspect of it being easier to throw the ball. So yeah, I'm in on the McLaurin over.

• 1:08:16Bill Simmons?

  So plus 850, most rushing, most receiving for the weekend. I think it's worth that little dabble, House. I like that.

• 1:08:21Speaker 02

  I'm on that. I'm on that. Yes. Hail, baby.

• 1:08:25Bill Simmons?

  And then the last one.

• 1:08:28Bill Simmons?

  Washington plus four and a half, plus 182. Is it worth a dabble?

• 1:08:35Speaker 02

  I'm out. So you have to, you, you get your answer from Shield.

• 1:08:39Speaker 01

  So, so you have the Lions in the other T's at what? Minus two and a half, right?

• 1:08:45Bill Simmons?

  It's like a very, very hairy middle, which is why you probably don't do it. If you take the Lions, you're just rooting for the Lions.

• 1:08:52Speaker 01

  Yeah, it might be, it might conflict you, but if you didn't have the other bet, I would say, again, Jaden Daniels rule, if it's over a field goal, why not?

• 1:09:04Bill Simmons?

  See, House is, I've never seen House do this before with gambling where he doesn't want to jinx his own team. It's really interesting.

• 1:09:11Speaker 02

  It's the divisional round of the effing playoffs. It's been 25 years. Like, what are you talking about? It's not surprising at all. I haven't been in this position in forever.

• 1:09:20Bill Simmons?

  Okay. So we.

• 1:09:22Speaker 01

  You only have a few weeks left. I mean, why, if you're feeling it, go with it, you know? It's not like week three.

• 1:09:27Speaker 02

  Could play my, I'm just gonna play my McLaurin overs to be satisfied. You made a great case. Play McLaurin overs. It's fine.

• 1:09:34Bill Simmons?

  All right. Do we like Josh Allen touchdown for plus 105 or no?

• 1:09:40Bill Simmons?

  Not really?

• 1:09:42Speaker 02

  I think, I think, I mean, you know, decent chance he'll do it.

• 1:09:46Bill Simmons?

  It's time.

• 1:09:50Bill Simmons?

  The million dollar picks, round two, here with Joe House and Sheil Kapadia. We are up 1.867 million for the season. We took last week off. We're coming back strong. First bet, an 8. tease on FanDuel with the Chiefs minus 8.5, the Eagles minus 6.5, and the Lions minus 8.5. We're teasing all of them down. It is even odds on FanDuel. We are breaking the Raheem Palmer rule. We're teasing the Eagles through the zero. I can see him like almost having a convulsion right now, but Eagles to plus 1.5, the other two just to win. That's plus 100. We're going to put 300K on that.

• 1:10:36Bill Simmons?

  Next bet, the Ravens minus 1.5. Sheil was nervous about this one. House and I just think it's a, no disrespect to the great people of Buffalo, bad matchup. Wrong team, wrong time. Ravens minus 1.5. We are putting 250K on that one. And then we're going to dabble in some stuff. Some, some 10K. Mahomes, 4.5 runs over, plus 110. Saquon and Henry. Saquon 18.5 yards over, longest run, with Henry longest run, 20.5. Plus 236, that's right, Sheil?

• 1:11:15Speaker 01

  I think so. Yeah, the bet is right.

• 1:11:17Bill Simmons?

  Each bust runs were good.

• 1:11:19Speaker 02

  It's a great one.

• 1:11:20Bill Simmons?

  Stafford, Stroud, both to throw one interception as the road quarterback in bad, in potentially bad weather games, plus 195.

• 1:11:30Bill Simmons?

  So we're doing McLaurin over 68 and a half receiving yards. One dude's too small McLaurin bets?

• 1:11:36Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:11:37Bill Simmons?

  McLaurin over 60 and a half. McLaurin had the most receiving yards of the weekend, plus 850, where there's two games outdoors. He's one of the only ones indoors. And what do you want to put in the parlays? 25K or 10K? I mean, not the parlays, the prop bets.

• 1:11:52Speaker 02

  10K is a good number. That's how people play them.

• 1:11:56Bill Simmons?

  10K. And those are the million dollar picks for round two. Sheil, happy gambling. Good luck with the Eagles. House, happy gambling. Good luck with the Washington, whatever your name is now.

• 1:12:07Speaker 02

  Hell, yes. Hell, yes.

• 1:12:09Bill Simmons?

  Hell. All right. Thanks, guys.

• 1:12:34Bill Simmons?

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• 1:13:15Bill Simmons?

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• 1:13:58Bill Simmons?

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