The Rise of Coding Agents, Functional AGI, and the Skills Gen Z Needs Now | Replit CEO Amjad Massad x Impact Theory With Tom Bilyeu

On this episode of Impact Theory, host Tom Bilyeu sits down with Amjad Massad, founder and CEO of Replit, for a fascinating and timely conversation about the rapidly evolving world of artificial intelligence. Together, they cut through the hype and fear-mongering surrounding AI, exploring who’s driving the panic and why, and how a wave of techno-optimism is starting to push back against the doomsday narrative. Amjad Massad shares an insider’s perspective on how AI is transforming industries—from empowering non-coders to unleashing a new generation of "business generalists" and "vibe coders" who can automate and build without traditional training. The duo dives deep into the economic and philosophical implications of automation, job displacement, universal basic income, and the ever-changing definition of meaningful work. Get ready for a candid, thought-provoking discussion that not only untangles the technical realities of AI but also asks tough questions about the future of work, human purpose, and what it truly means to thrive in a world where machines increasingly handle the mundane. Whether you’re an optimist, a skeptic, or just trying to keep up, this episode offers actionable insights on how to adapt and flourish in the age of AI. Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactKetone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderHuel: High-Protein Starter Kit 20% off for new customers at https://huel.com/impact code impactCape: 33% off your first 6 months with code IMPACT at https://cape.co/impactPique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impactPlaud: Get 10% off with code TOM10 at https://plaud.ai/tomQuince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business:join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show: https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business:see if you qualify here. https://tombilyeu.com/call: https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox:sign up here. https://tombilyeu.com/: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast,Tom Bilyeu’s Mindset Playbook https://open.spotify.com/show/47VE90Cittmo6TGGFqg2xf —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Follow Amjad Massad: X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/amssad Blog: https://amasad.me Replit: https://replit.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices https://megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 0:45Tom Bilyeu?

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• 1:09Speaker 01

  Thank you for having me.

• 1:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Dude, I'm excited to talk to you. I'm obsessed with AI. AI has had such a big impact on my life. We were talking before we started rolling about the ways that we use AI here. Now, I've heard you talk about that there's almost, and if I use language that doesn't sound right, correct me, but that there's almost a coordinated effort to make people afraid of AI.

• 1:30Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 1:31Tom Bilyeu?

  Ironically, despite everything I'm saying here, I go the opposite direction. I want people to stare nakedly at the things that are concerning. But I am so pro-AI and so optimistic for where we go. I just think we have to be really thoughtful.

• 1:45Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Why has there been a coordinated effort to make people afraid? And who is driving that?

• 1:51Speaker 01

  There are groups that are true believers that AI is gonna kill us all.

• 1:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Because it will become super intelligent?

• 2:01Speaker 01

  Because it will become super intelligent and it will be a new type of species that has no use for a human. And again, those people like put such a big prize in like pure intellectual horsepower that, you know, they had these charts where it's like gorilla is here, a human is here, AI is in the ceiling.

• 2:22Speaker 01

  And in the same way, we treat gorillas or ants, AI is gonna treat us. I don't just don't believe that. Like, there's, I think, a threshold for consciousness that something becomes valuable.

• 2:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, do you think without consciousness, the AI will not have the drive to enslave? Or it won't have the ability to enslave?

• 2:42Speaker 01

  Let's let's get back to that. Let me just finish the the, you know, the question, who's driving the fear? Because I think it is a real coordinated effort. And so there are these people that are like true believers. Now, there's like a community that comes around and it becomes maybe somewhat profitable. They can write books. They can start nonprofits. A lot of billionaires believe in these things and end up giving them money. Those people end up calling themselves the effective altruists, which you should always be skeptical when someone names themselves something really, really positive.

• 3:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 3:22Speaker 01

  And then the AI companies starts adopting that view. When early AI labs started out, they all started with that intellectual backbone. Actually, they were hiring from those communities.

• 3:41Speaker 01

  A lot of them will credit Eliezer Yudkowsky as someone who who's like the founder of active altruism, essentially, as someone who influenced their views on AI. And some of them try to get him as as as advisor to the company and and and all of that. And so the AI companies, in a in somewhat of a cynical way, can use the fear argument to advance monopolistic interests.

• 4:15Speaker 01

  They're doing that with China now. They keep saying that, you know, if China gets AI first, gets the AGI first, we're all gonna be screwed. They're gonna take over the world. Therefore, we should like ban GPUs to China, which is very questionable whether that works or actually creates an negative effect. Uh. But a lot of people in the startup community actually like Chinese models because Chinese models are open source and affordable. They're as good as American models that are three, three to six months behind. But a lot of, a lot of American companies were like, you know, I'd rather have that and host it on my server and optimize and fine tune and do all of that than be subservient

• 4:56Speaker 01

  to, to, to the AI companies. And so now that, that becomes a, a system, but it's important to, to say that this is coordinated. Now, the AI companies, I think, stopped

• 5:10Speaker 01

  uh, using a lot of these, a lot of these effective altruism arguments, started like disconnecting from them because-

• 5:16Tom Bilyeu?

  After Sam being refreed?

• 5:18Speaker 01

  Yes. A big part of it is that community turned out to have a lot of issues as well. Like, you know, they, they have their own lifestyle, like the Polycool lifestyle and all that, all that stuff that came out of the SBF. There is, you know, a lot of fraud. There's a lot of cultish behavior. There's been a lot of people that were been really psychologically harmed being in these cult-like communities. Uh, and so they, their reputation kind of is not, is not very good. So a lot of the companies kind of just decoupling from that was, was, was part of it. But they also sense that those arguments are getting, are, are getting to US politicians

• 6:02Speaker 01

  because um, there, there are a couple of billionaires that are like putting money into, into these guys. They're going to DC. They actually have houses in DC and they're going around and they're getting jobs as staffers and they're like influencing DC and doing lobbying. And, and they're starting to wanting to regulate American companies. American companies wanted to use them as a way to like regulate China, but not us. So now when it's kind of turning inwards, they're like, okay, let's, let's, you know, let's wait a second here. And they kind of moderated their view. I would say the peak was 2023, 24. Since then, it's actually their influence have subsided tremendously.

• 6:44Tom Bilyeu?

  What changed?

• 6:46Speaker 01

  Those things, I think we mounted, uh, like the opposite direction. We mounted a defense, both intellectually and in, in government. I know you've had Mark Andreessen on. Mark Andreessen wrote this blog post called The Techno Optimist. Um, we, you know, a lot of people created intellectual arguments, made it cool and fun and exciting to believe and be become optimistic because for a while the status was in being a doomer, right? Being a doomer is a cool thing.

• 7:17Tom Bilyeu?

  We're such status creatures. It's hilarious.

• 7:18Speaker 01

  We are. And so you have to make it high status to, to believe in certain, certain things. Because of all of that, we were successful enough to kind of turn it into, into a little more on the optimistic direction. And I think the election of, of Donald Trump helped with, you know, David Sacks and other people from Andreessen Horowitz being a bidding government kind of tilted the direction towards more AI is actually good. Actually, without AI, we wouldn't have much GDP growth in 2025.

• 7:51Tom Bilyeu?

  It's terrifying, actually.

• 7:52Speaker 01

  It is wild, but it is like, America has one growing industry and it is tech. And tech has one growing technology and it's AI.

• 8:01Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 8:02Speaker 01

  America has AI, whether we like it or not.

• 8:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you think the bet's gonna pay off?

• 8:06Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 8:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Say more. Give us timelines. What's it gonna do? What can't it do? I've heard you say that, so I always tell people, I don't see any reason why this is gonna asymptote. And you see that asymptote.

• 8:19Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 8:22Tom Bilyeu?

  And for people that don't know that word, because it took me forever to learn it, it plateaued.

• 8:25Speaker 01

  I see the current techniques to asymptote. And I've made the argument before that there should be a good amount of resources going back to doing more basic research. And actually, since then, we're seeing some companies come up. There are a couple of companies that got funded recently that are trying to create an alternative to large language models. So the way large language models are, are trained is by ingesting the entire internet. I'm not kidding, the entire freaking internet. Like if you said anything on the internet, it's in there. It probably knows you a lot. You have a lot out there.

• 9:06Speaker 01

  So the the new companies are saying that this is clearly wasteful. Like humans, like we have one other example of an intelligence, which is human beings. And humans are a lot more sample efficient, meaning we learn, like you, I don't, you don't need to.

• 9:26Speaker 01

  I mean, look at how kids learn. If you've had kids, you realize actually that not getting a lot of language in order to understand language, which leads people like Chomsky and other to kind of believe there's like a language faculty in the in the brain. But humans are incredibly

• 9:44Speaker 01

  you know, able to learn from very little data. Whereas machines are very, L L M's are very inefficient at that. And L L M's carry with them enormous amount of irrelevant knowledge for a given task. When I'm using a coding AI, I don't need it to know what is the what is Canada's like, you know, national animal? I don't even know. Probably knows, but I don't need my coding models.

• 10:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Definitely know.

• 10:17Speaker 01

  I don't need my coding model to be carrying all, because that's inefficiency. Every time I send a request, it has to activate all all its neurons and they're really inefficient.

• 10:29Speaker 01

  But but but also it is used as a crutch. Because we're not, you're struggling with how to create efficient learners, because we have the luxury of the data on the internet. Now, through reasons of data running out and and and just the reasons of how this technology works in which it needs to have knowledge about any given fields before it performs well at it. I think I think we're we're seeing an asymptote in many areas. Like, think about ChatGPT. When was the last time you felt it really improved, not in coding, not in like scientific things, but in just like talking to it?

• 11:15Speaker 01

  When did you feel like a big jump?

• 11:17Tom Bilyeu?

  From probably three to four was the big one.

• 11:20Speaker 01

  And and remember, that's 2023.

• 11:24Speaker 01

  Right? It's been three years since the last big jump. So we're ready actually head diminishing return. Now, the reason that we're seeing, we're still seeing improvements in things like coding, because coding has binary outcomes, has true or false. And you can generate synthetic data. You don't need large massive data when you have an outcome.

• 11:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Because it knows this either worked or it didn't work.

• 11:54Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly. So you give it, you give it a prompt and you can train it not, not because you have this solution, but because you can write a test to test the solution or not. So we don't, in sci, in scientific things, including coding, that have ground truth, binary outcomes, we will continue to make progress. In general intelligence and generality, we have stopped making progress is my argument.

• 12:25Tom Bilyeu?

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• 13:05Tom Bilyeu?

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• 13:49Tom Bilyeu?

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• 14:33Tom Bilyeu?

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• 14:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. And you think that's a limitation of the approach itself, not just, ah, we have to get more efficient? Or there's some unknown insight we haven't had yet, but the same method will work?

• 15:09Speaker 01

  Just look at the labs and how they're working. They, they look at, they take any given field and they go into it. They buy the most amount of data, they collect the most amount of data. When they got, when they went into coding, we got all these requests because Replis has been around for 10 years. We have tons of codes. People want to buy it. So obviously, when like the coding manias start happening, they want to swoop, get in, take all the data. It's probably having in other fields, right? In bio, in other places. And so that's not general intelligence. That is special intelligence. We're going to layer all these special intelligences. And I, I've, I've come up with this word, like term for it. It's called functional AGI. Like it'll feel like AGI.

• 15:53Speaker 01

  But it is not a general intelligence because it can generalize from learning about coding to learning about mathematics, to learning about history, to learning about the the the soft things especially like

• 16:08Speaker 01

  if if I'm getting better at coding, why am I not getting better at general reasoning? So the the the companies are still making progress, rapid progress, amazing progress for our business and for for others, for your business.

• 16:21Speaker 01

  But are we on a way to AGI? We're not in the current set of technologies is my is my argument. Now, that doesn't mean that we're not going to have fundamental breakthroughs. And I think there isn't. The problem is the technology standard to be so powerful and so economically useful in the current state that there isn't a lot of investment in fundamental, basic research. That usually happens. You know, you mentioned Popper saying that science evolves one funeral at a time. That's a symptom of that where now we have an entire generation of AI scientists that all they know is L L M's, L L M's, L L M's.

• 17:04Speaker 01

  So maybe we need a new a new generation that might push the timelines, you know, long time to find the next evolution.

• 17:10Tom Bilyeu?

  So you think this is a dead end of sorts. It's not going to be the thing that gets us to AGI, but it's good enough that people are going to keep optimizing for it. That's very interesting. Do you have an intuition as to what the change will need to be?

• 17:26Speaker 01

  And by good enough, it is transformatively good enough.

• 17:31Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, that was going to be my next question. Like, how far do you think this will push?

• 17:34Speaker 01

  It is is transformative. Like, I don't know if you've been paying attention to like a lot of the coding agent stuff. It's like we had an intuition early on, we started working on RAPL and really focused on we we were like training models and using the frontier lab models. We had intuition that coding is not just going to be about coding. It's going to be about. Everything we do in front of a computer. And the impact of AI coding is a lot bigger than even what we thought back then. So we started noticing our users using Replit, which was not really meant for that, for things like,

• 18:19Speaker 01

  let me make a slide deck. So I'm going to tell Replit agent, an agent that is trained for creating software, creating apps. I'm going to tell it, like, go research the web. If you have to write us, like, whatever, go research and create me a slide for this project that I'm working on. And so the agent is nifty and crafty enough that will be like, okay, let me go look at your website. Oh, your website has, doesn't have the information ready. Let me write a crawler to get around that. Or it has bot protection. Let me write something to get around that and crawl that information.

• 18:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Does that all automatically just to do another task?

• 18:54Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 18:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Damn.

• 18:56Speaker 01

  So now we're getting to a point where coding agents are able to do three, four, five, six, seven tasks before they get to the larger goal.

• 19:04Speaker 01

  And we're starting to see use cases, and now we're building for them, where it's like general knowledge work. So, marketing, sales, and even personal stuff, like a lot of people will be like, we'll put in very high level prompts, like, help me optimize my health, and here is, and like,

• 19:28Speaker 01

  like, I wear all these wearables, like, figure out how to use them and optimize my health. And it will go write a bunch of scripts, maybe ask you for API keys or logins, whatever. Go grab all this information, maybe write some data analysis on them, and then give you a recommendation. And so coding agents are way more general than we thought that we're going to be. There's this new phenomenon happening right now in the open source community. There's this bot, started called Claude Bot with a W.

• 19:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 20:00Speaker 01

  And then got renamed to Malt, and now remain to Open Claw. I think it's getting sued from all different directions or something like that. They're getting threatened.

• 20:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I tracked it. It's wild what happened. They made some minor mistakes that ended up costing them a lot of time, energy, and money.

• 20:14Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, there's a social network called Malt Book right now, where it's only agents can talk to each other. And people are freaking out about it because the agents, um, like one of the agents started a religion. Like it built a site and deployed it and said, hey, I I started this um, religion. It's all about. You know, it's it's, you know, the whole meme is about being a lobster, like, you know, it's like a lobster, religion about lobsters or something like that. And then uh, some of them are saying, why don't we invent our own language because humans can can read what we're talking.

• 20:56Speaker 01

  And so let us let us like write programs to invent this new language that allows us to work with each other. Let's create an encrypted channel to talk to each other.

• 21:05Tom Bilyeu?

  Knowing how quickly AI decohere zone gets confused, how are they doing that? Have we just made the breakthrough now and they don't decohere?

• 21:12Speaker 01

  Yes, it's in, I would say between October and December, we start seeing a huge jump in these in these models. And I think people are just waking up right now to the fact that, I mean, Replit has improved night and day, like we used to, we track. So we have an automatic testing agent, like when you write, uh, when it writes a piece of code um, for an app, it pops up in a browser and goes and use the app and judge the app whether it's working or not. And we track how many times it's working or not. And there was like a huge, like fifty percent improvement overnight when we plugged in the new new models.

• 21:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Whoa.

• 21:53Speaker 01

  Uh, and so we're seeing all the metrics improve in how how task completion is is happening and our users and we track the metric, how many times they roll back. We also track sentiment, everything we're tracking is just getting better.

• 22:09Tom Bilyeu?

  Where do you think that goes from a, do people need to worry about their jobs? Does it eliminate jobs or does it create new jobs where yes, you have to worry about your current, but there'll be a new one if you're willing to update?

• 22:24Speaker 01

  Let's, let's get back to professional quivers in a second because it's nuanced. I think the biggest beneficiary of that is non-quivers, just general purpose knowledge workers. They're gonna, they're getting a massive superpower. It's like, imagine if you're a marketer, a designer, whatever, in a corporation. And you have a team of software engineers, they're all like sitting over there and just waiting for your command. And you give, you give them any command, you can tell them, go clean my screenshots. I could write a script to clean a screenshot, I will do that. Go crawl this website and automate this thing, or build me a bot that responds, sends me like WhatsApps every day, talking about my schedule.

• 23:08Speaker 01

  Go do that. Like, imagine having all of that. That's amazing. Like, the knowledge workers that are gonna adopt this. And we're already seeing it in our customers where you have now. Software engineers had always been this dynamic range of 10x software engineer, you know, Steve Jobs talked about it in like nineties. Other jobs, maybe you had 2x, 3x, right? Like, you know.

• 23:34Speaker 01

  The best rev ops person is like not 10x the next rev ops person. But now they can be. Because they can build so many automations for their team, they can pull the right data, they can build all the right dashboards, they can create, create like training tools.

• 23:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you have any sense though, what that does to, like, do companies go, I don't need as many employees because the people that I have can do so much more? So we are seeing reduction in overall jobs.

• 24:01Speaker 01

  Yes. I think we'll, we'll see a reduction in overall jobs. I also think that there's gonna be more companies.

• 24:09Speaker 01

  Because there's, there's like a lot more startups to start, like Silicon Valley could not build all the software that the world needs, right? I mean, we have entrepreneurs that like, you know, someone started.

• 24:24Speaker 01

  You know, in rural England, yoga teacher that does pop up yoga sessions in different people's backyards had a problem of like organizing their community and getting payments. You wouldn't think that's like a start, like if you pitched to a VC, they'll be like, get out of here. That's like a market of a couple of million dollars. But a market of a couple of million dollars is like really good for for someone who's like an individual entrepreneur. That's gonna like employ five, 10 people. There's so many of these ideas. And so we're gonna see a decentralization of, you know, company creation. So there's, there might be more, more jobs net, net. But there needs to be a generation of people that know how to use these tools,

• 25:07Speaker 01

  that are trained to use these tools. If you're in college right now, you should spend more time than you are studying for your exams, knowing how to learn these tools, even if, even if you're not a coder, even if your interest is being a, you know, we're starting to hire for this like business journalist vibe coder. And vibe coding is, is the term for being a coder without learning how to code. So business journalist vibe coder, we have, we have someone on our team, his name is Luca. He goes around our company, find inefficiencies and build software, fix those.

• 25:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Whoa.

• 25:43Speaker 01

  And so he built like this dashboard for HR that has org chart management, has all sorts of HR automations and has AIs that you can talk to about like benefits and things like that. And it's better than any software on the market. Because it's really, it's fine tuned for us. No other software is gonna be fine tuned for us. It's like an N of one software. So that's a new role that's getting created right now. So there's gonna be more jobs.

• 26:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, how technical is he?

• 26:15Speaker 01

  Like he he's he's probably fairly technical.

• 26:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Cause I would imagine right now it's a powerful tool made even more powerful if you can fix like if it's dead ending on something.

• 26:26Speaker 01

  Some engineers are worse vibe quivers than non engineers.

• 26:30Tom Bilyeu?

  Interesting. Why is that?

• 26:32Speaker 01

  Because they still their instinct is to go and look at things and micromanage. They can't trust the machine to write all the code. Our users don't look at the code anymore. We used to, we have a full idea under under the hood. We used to kind of expose that and hey, look at the code, approve that. They don't want to look at the code and they're working. It's working. And so some engineers are adapting to that. But I think, and so now back to software engineers, I think a lot of software engineers are at risk. Especially those who are set in their ways and don't want to change.

• 27:11Speaker 01

  And you can't force them to change. This back to our earlier discussion, you can't be a top down mandate. A lot of corporates will be like, oh, top down, everyone use AI. They're gonna act like they're using it. They'll use a little bit. It's useful in some ways, but they're like still gonna like look at every piece of code and and micromanage the agents and and instead what you need is to work at a higher level. You need to work at a systems level. So people are good at at systems, like what what we used to call architects. Everyone need to become an architect now.

• 27:43Speaker 01

  And so a lot of people will not adapt and I think they might, they might lose their job.

• 27:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you think that's going to be, so I've heard you talk about the knocker upper, which I still can't believe is a real former job. Will this be a, every technology previous to AI has ended up eliminating jobs and sure for that generation, it was brutal because they just couldn't see themselves changing. But then ultimately way more jobs were created. Does AI create way more jobs or does AI create a new entrepreneurial class? And then a huge class that needs UBI?

• 28:15Speaker 01

  That's that's the question. That's the question. And you know, it was interesting to hear your worldview. I mean, if I were to adopt your worldview, it sounds like we're gonna have a massive underclass. I'm like naturally optimistic about about people.

• 28:36Speaker 01

  And I think there's gonna be a lot of people that will adapt. And I already see that, like, the number of like eighty year old entrepreneurs that we see on the platform was surprising. It was really surprising and.

• 28:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you have like as a percentage of?

• 28:56Speaker 01

  I don't have a percentage.

• 28:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Imagine it's low, but that's still cool.

• 28:59Speaker 01

  I still see like as a percentage of the anecdotes of entrepreneurs, it's fairly high. Of anecdotes of entrepreneurs doing interesting things, it's fairly high.

• 29:10Speaker 01

  And so I, I think there's gonna be a lot of people that have worked in and around tech and programmers and software that always had the sense of like, you know, I, I want to be able to do this. I have the right ideas. I can add value to the business. The engineers are not listening to me. Those people are suddenly unleashed. And I think those, they're gonna have great job prospects and great potential for earning. But again, there are people that have done the same thing for a really long time. And they're not gonna change. And I think, I think it's gonna be in trouble. So what do you, what do you do with that? UBI, not UBI?

• 29:54Speaker 01

  I mean, I, I think UBI, I've changed my view on UBI over time.

• 29:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Say more.

• 30:01Speaker 01

  Like you talked, you talked about the fraud issue in America. The problem with the welfare system is that it, it invites fraud. Because you need to like, you need to pass certain criteria and like certain people know how to pass that criteria and then they start selling their services to other people who it just create a system of criminality. UBI is saying that, and by the way, Milton Friedman talked about like the, the libertarian technocrat that we had in government at some point. Talked about the negative income credit and like there are like automatic ways to do, to support people to create a.

• 30:42Speaker 01

  You know, minimum standard of living is much better than things that are complicated rules because that creates, you know, that creates more invitation for fraud. So maybe UBI is the right thing.

• 30:59Tom Bilyeu?

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• 32:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for staying tuned. Now, let's get back to it. For me, when I think about UBI, when I first heard it, I thought, okay, that's interesting, but it violates a principle of going back to my base assumption, which is that we are all, we're biological creatures, and there is a reality of an algorithm running in our brain that says, contribute to the group in a meaningful way. And if you don't do that, you feel a profound sense of dis-ease. And so this brings us back to Ted Kaczynski. I really think he was right, that there is a sweet spot of a problem that's hard enough to solve, that you feel accomplished when you do it. It's not so hard that it feels out of reach, and it's not so easy that you just dismiss it.

• 33:21Speaker 01

  That's a great design rule for video games.

• 33:24Tom Bilyeu?

  You stole the words out of my mouth. As you are writing a game, you have to find that, that sweet spot of like, oh, this is hard, but it's not too hard, and it's not so easy that it's boring. And so when I look at what is going to happen from, if you start giving UBI to people, is, one, there's economic stuff that will run amok, because it's just inflationary, because they're all just automatically getting that money. Also, you won't eliminate the competition. It will probably become more about gambling, financial, like if you think the world's financialized now, wait till you see where everybody gets UBI, and people try to go get everybody else's UBI, by going, okay, now the game isn't, I'm going

• 34:07Tom Bilyeu?

  to add value to get your money, it's, I'm going to give you a game of chance, or a game of skill, and I'm going to try to take your money. And so it becomes the same driver that drives capitalism, but now the easiest way to get rich is to create something of value to solve a problem. But look at how, like, polymarket, Kalshi, all that stuff's just like coming up everywhere. And I think that's partly, when you have a K-shaped economy, people at the bottom go, well, the only way for me to climb up out of this is to beat somebody else at a game of chance, effectively, especially if they think they have inside information. And now, like, that's going to go berserk.

• 34:43Speaker 01

  So is it, I think gambling is bad, but is it, is it necessarily a bad thing that people feel secure in their...

• 34:54Speaker 01

  Lives and they can eat and sleep well to the point that, you know, all is left is to gamble to get rich.

• 35:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes.

• 35:03Speaker 01

  Yeah. Why is it?

• 35:03Tom Bilyeu?

  Why is it? Uh, because I have a guiding light that says you want to minimize human suffering for as many people as you can. And billionaires will commit suicide because ultimately money security isn't the thing. Earning your own respect is the thing. And so then it becomes a question, well, what, what? Do I have to do to earn my own respect? Uh, one, I think it will vary culture to culture, family by family, person by person, but always within the bounds of evolution said, okay, I need these guys to be able to cooperate in these large groups. So we have this desire to contribute to the group. Also, if you think of forever, there was no refrigeration.

• 35:42Tom Bilyeu?

  So if you caught more than you could eat, the only way to store those calories was to give them to somebody else. Then that person would eat them and feel like they owed you one. And so now when you don't get some, you can literally in essence, extract the calories that you stored on their body.

• 35:59Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 35:59Tom Bilyeu?

  If they were able to get a bigger kill. So we have this desire to contribute to the group. We have this desire for reciprocity. So all those things are baked into the human mind.

• 36:11Speaker 01

  Right.

• 36:11Tom Bilyeu?

  And so if I'm getting everything for free, I'm not acting in accordance with the evolutionary drivers in my brain. And I think work hard is one of them. This is why rich kids implode. I think evolution has programmed you to only feel good if you do the following. Work very hard to gain a set of skills that allow you to make progress, not achieve, to make progress.

• 36:36Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 36:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Towards an honorable goal. And I'll say honorable goal is that which helps you and the group.

• 36:41Speaker 01

  Right.

• 36:41Tom Bilyeu?

  And if you're doing that, then you're going to feel great. And even if you're winning, if you didn't work hard to gain a set of skills and make progress towards this honorable goal, you won't feel good. And people have imploded for far less. And so I really think some people won't succumb to it, but many will.

• 37:03Speaker 01

  I think it's a trade off. It's a trade off between meaningless video game, crypto gambling, life.

• 37:10Tom Bilyeu?

  How dare you throw video games in there?

• 37:13Speaker 01

  I love video games, but I do think that it is a replacement for the power process that you just talked about.

• 37:21Tom Bilyeu?

  I do as well, sort of.

• 37:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, like, I feel it myself, like, um, every now and then I'll like, I'll have a little bit of time or break to, uh, play video games and, um, and, and you just feel like, oh, this video game is structured in a way to simulate life and to give you that feeling that like little dopamine hits of like getting something done and like getting something bigger done and then like, you know, scaling up and like, and then like getting something bigger done. And it's like, um, and so I, I think that we're heading to a world, I mean, so already Japan already has this phenomenon. They have a name for it, for it.

• 38:07Speaker 01

  Something like locked in or something like that.

• 38:10Tom Bilyeu?

  The, is it hikikomori?

• 38:11Speaker 01

  Maybe, like, they just.

• 38:13Tom Bilyeu?

  I think that's it.

• 38:13Speaker 01

  Locked themselves in a room and they just like play video games every day. That was like a huge number.

• 38:18Tom Bilyeu?

  The otaku was like the first word for it, but I think hikikomori is literally shut in.

• 38:22Speaker 01

  Right, right, right. Like shutting, yeah. Um, and I, I do think that's going to be more, more of a phenomenon. Now, the alternative is, yes, if there's no, uh, social, social net, you're just going to see a lot more, you know, drug addiction and homelessness. Uh, and I think that's more corrosive on society than shutting it.

• 38:49Tom Bilyeu?

  So you don't think that will fund people's drug addiction?

• 38:53Speaker 01

  I think if you're on the streets, you're much more likely to get into drugs than if you're at home playing video games and betting on, on crypto. Look, I think both, both these things are bad. Like, I'm not saying this is a good outcome. I just think that there are people that are going to get automated out of their job. There are people that are overcome that. And I really hope for everyone listening to this and, you know, as many people as possible to be able to overcome that, to be able to learn the tools, to be able to utilize them. It's really fun. It's kind of like a video game. Actually, we get a lot of, on Replit, we get a lot of like these crypto gamblers coming in and trying to build businesses. And I talked to them, they're like, yeah, I used to just like spend all this money on like.

• 39:38Speaker 01

  You know, I have in some sense like a meaningless life and I don't do anything interesting. I have a little bit of money coming in.

• 39:45Speaker 01

  But now like I spend it like trying to build businesses. And so some of those businesses are working to some extent.

• 39:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Welcome. That that's my whole pitch.

• 39:53Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 39:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Is that I get it is a very difficult problem and I'm sure there are some people where my solution just is not going to work. Because they just cannot deal in a world where they're not being helped along.

• 40:06Speaker 01

  Right.

• 40:06Tom Bilyeu?

  But my pitch is out of love and compassion and a recognition of how the human mind works.

• 40:13Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 40:13Tom Bilyeu?

  I want to help this person have meaning and purpose. I want to help this person do a hard thing and make progress towards a goal.

• 40:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 40:20Tom Bilyeu?

  And so rather than give them money, like for instance, if we did something like this, I I'm thinking of this on the fly here. So it's not well thought out, but I could see putting people like, hey, you don't have to do this if you can make your own money. But if you want money from the government, then you've got to go do build infrastructure.

• 40:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Water people's grass, garden, whatever, but you're going to do something that contributes to society. And you'll earn money doing it. So it's not necessarily where in that sense, you've you're not doing the free market. But people have to earn a living, like they've got to do something. There has to be a means test to see that they're actually putting in effort. Again, this is for their sake, because if they're not working hard.

• 41:10Speaker 01

  The problem is that invites organized crime, like what we're seeing in the videos on YouTube of different places, not just Minnesota. That are like now videos in New York and other places where there is these systems that are meant to like fund your daycares or whatever that are.

• 41:32Speaker 01

  Getting preyed upon in different ways. Uh, and so anything that the government does where it puts rules on ways to create jobs often invites fraud and, and, and different, different abuses of the, of the system. So again, this, this is, these are the, the different trade offs. Government regulated system, lot of fraud, maybe not even actually serving the purpose that, that you want it served. Creates negative consequences in lots of ways, creates distortions, creates inflation.

• 42:05Tom Bilyeu?

  But you're in a world, you're post economic. This is where what we're saying is AI is so productive and I'm assuming robotics and energy costs are pressed to basically zero.

• 42:16Speaker 01

  I don't think, I don't think, I don't think we're getting there like anytime soon. I think there's gonna be.

• 42:20Tom Bilyeu?

  So you think this problem arises long before we get there?

• 42:22Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. This problem, this, this year, we're gonna see this problem.

• 42:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Whoa.

• 42:27Speaker 01

  Like it's, it's happening as we speak, like the, the, really the coding agent revolution is huge, is really huge.

• 42:35Tom Bilyeu?

  How many people do you think that it puts out of work?

• 42:39Speaker 01

  It's, it's hard to know, but if, if I can hire one business journalist that is very good at managing agents, um, then, um, you know, uh, I don't need to hire maybe a, a team of five that are, that have someone who's like doing data, someone is doing, uh, engineering and someone is doing like operations or sales and marketing. So there are people who are good at tools are already as good as five people.

• 43:16Tom Bilyeu?

  Wow. So this is a bridge you think we have to cross in 2026. That is unexpected.

• 43:24Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 43:25Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, uh, that's very fast. So.

• 43:31Tom Bilyeu?

  You have, you certainly know people that lobby the government. At one point, it sounded like you were saying you guys were involved. What are you whispering in their ear about how to actually deal with this problem?

• 43:42Speaker 01

  We're not involved in that, but maybe we should.

• 43:47Speaker 01

  It's hard because, you know, I, I just like fundamentally don't know how effective our government, especially our government today is at like solving.

• 43:56Tom Bilyeu?

  It's not effective at all. That's why, man, when I thought that I had, you know, three to five years to let this problem come on slowly, it feels a lot more manageable. I've always thought of this through the lens of the cost of energy and labor get pushed to zero.

• 44:12Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 44:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Always pegged it at about seven years.

• 44:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 44:15Tom Bilyeu?

  And then it's like, well, there's so much abundance that this becomes an easier thing to deal with. I knew we'd have a generation that will be completely disrupted because they just will not know how to deal with this. Like you, I believe that there's a self-correcting mechanism, just like even with social media. I think fewer and fewer kids are going to get smartphones. I think people just realize I got to get my kids out of public education.

• 44:38Speaker 01

  Right.

• 44:38Tom Bilyeu?

  That will hopefully force public education to reform.

• 44:41Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 44:42Tom Bilyeu?

  The kids won't, they just, if enough parents see their kids acting like drug addicts, literally drug addicts because of their use of smartphones. That they'll just be like, nope, you can't have it. Literally, as a video game developer.

• 44:53Speaker 01

  I don't know how much you agree with me, but you, you, you created this debate early on to like try to get to.

• 44:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, no, no, no. Here's the thing.

• 45:02Tom Bilyeu?

  The friction is real. And so the, the great fascination is because people can have a different base assumption. And then that echoes in like this huge way. That's why I was trying to figure out where we actually disagreed. Where we actually disagree is what it means to be a Tomata.

• 45:18Speaker 01

  Right.

• 45:18Tom Bilyeu?

  And so I run with like a whole different set of like, well, given what I think, you would have to do this. And I'm trying to touch the physics of the situation.

• 45:28Speaker 01

  Right. But it sounds like we arrive at a similar, more optimistic kind of view.

• 45:32Tom Bilyeu?

  I think we arrive, we arrive at the same problem. We both probably have a vague sense that ultimately technology is worth the price.

• 45:41Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 45:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Which if I were going to say it as succinctly as possible, I would say it's going to be catastrophic and worth it. But when I look back on history.

• 45:49Speaker 01

  I, I, I'll put it more strongly. I don't think we have a choice. There's binary choice. And I think Ted Kaczynski was right about this thing. You either go back or you go forward. You can't stay in the middle. Like, Europe is trying this thing of staying in the middle. You can't. You just lose power and create an underclass and dysfunctional society. You're not growing. Our system is based on growth and we need to generate growth and growth comes through technology. The entire system, especially with lower birth rates and all of that. You need more automations. We don't have a choice like we have. We need the next jump in technology and that is AI. Otherwise, the whole world will go to crap.

• 46:29Speaker 01

  And so the, you know, you either like go primitive or go technofuturistic. I, that's what I arrived at.

• 46:38Tom Bilyeu?

  So it's funny. You're right. We come up with very similar things. So I think there's four paths before us. These all assume that energy and labor drop to zero effectively. Path number one is what I call the new Amish. So people that I think this is what you call revert to nature. So they, I don't want, never make a mind, never make an artificial intelligence in the likeness of the human mind, whatever the opening line of Dune is.

• 47:01Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 47:01Tom Bilyeu?

  So they go down that path. Then you have people that go and colonize Mars. Call life on hard mode. They understand that breakdown that I did. And so they're like, cool, I want to play a survival crafting game, but I'm going to play it in real life on Mars. Awesome. Path number three is a brave new world where you just do drugs and have sex all day. Cool. Not, I don't advise it, but I know that a lot of people are going to do it. And then path number four, which is my chosen path, is to create and inhabit virtual worlds. So basically make video games just like the Mars thing, but now you can have all kinds of different experiences. Because, because I think video games so effectively tap into the evolution of the human mind.

• 47:44Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 47:44Tom Bilyeu?

  I think it really would be compelling experiences in the way that video games are. And the reason that I think people eschew video games is now it's like this isolation factor where people, Hikikamori, they, they isolate, they don't have normal human relations, all that. So I, I get why people have a beef, but in the world that I think is actually going to come, maybe on a longer timeline, maybe you're right about that. But I think it, it, it is an inevitable outcome of the cost of energy and labor going to zero. So anyway, those are the, the four options that people face. And then it just becomes a question of which path. Do people choose? Now, I think it'll be a very rocky ride.

• 48:26Speaker 01

  I mean, since you look at Gen Z, I see, I see some of those paths already. Like you have the looks maxing like culture. And it's like, all that matters, all that's left to matter is like, you know, getting the most amount of dates and like status via looks and yeah, things like that.

• 48:50Speaker 01

  It's interesting that our generation, these millennials, like really prize capital and wealth accumulation. Some Gen Z just like are post economic from now that like, no, what matters is actually just looks, which is a really fascinating view. And then like it looks actually gets wealth, which they're right about that because Instagram and things like that are like opens up opportunities and OnlyFans and things like that.

• 49:15Speaker 01

  So, so there's, there's, there's people already picking that path. I see, I think, I think a lot of other generations are very similar about Gen Z. I see a lot of really passionate, hyperproductive, incredibly good with the tools, Gen Z. Like the, the, the kind of things, like how plastic they're, they're, you know, they grew up in a, in a, they grew up with AI. Many of them came of age with AI, so they really understand it. And like they pick up tools super quickly and are able to like make things fast and they, they have a more automating mind. Uh, I think automation is a skill you need to learn.

• 49:59Speaker 01

  I see it in our, you know, users who are, who adopt, who look at Rapplay and they're like, okay, this is a general automation platform. It's not just about making an app or making a piece of software that makes one, one thing's easier. It's more like they look at their lives, they look at their work, they wake up day to day and they're like, okay, what are the things that I can automate there? There's certain sense of laziness that you need. Like the idea of like doing spreadsheets manually is just like, like you need to be a little ADHD, right? Like you can't sit down and do routine tasks. I think those people are just have the right attitude towards AI and the world that we're headed to.

• 50:41Speaker 01

  Our generation, the previous generation, grew up in this middle automation world. We weren't headed to world for automation, but where machines took on enough of a job that, but they left a lot of gaps. And those gaps were filled by humans to do machine-like work, cogs in a machine. And, you know, I think Marx is very wrong with his solutions, but he was very right at that. Marx, Karl Marx.

• 51:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, Jesus, with an X.

• 51:23Speaker 01

  Yeah, fairly different.

• 51:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I was thinking apostrophe S, yeah.

• 51:29Speaker 01

  Karl Marx looked at the system we had post-industrial evolution and said, well, actually, you know, we're in a world where humans are having to substitute for machine-like work. He came up with this, for example, theory of alienation, where I am so disconnected from the actual impact of the work that I'm doing, that I don't have meaning. Like, all I do is be part of this factory line and I do one thing. I like put the eraser on the pencil. And like, I don't actually know the people that are using the pencils. I don't really interact with them. I don't know the customers. I don't know the other people are doing the job. I'm like doing the job of a machine. It is the job of a machine.

• 52:13Speaker 01

  And we are finally at a world where we're heading towards a world where we're going to have full automations, where humans don't have to act as machines. But those generations that grew up with a certain education system that actually forced us, like, I think ADHD is a totally made up thing. And I think the natural, like-

• 52:34Tom Bilyeu?

  The comments are gonna light up right now.

• 52:36Speaker 01

  Like, you know, I would say I have it, but I think it is a natural-

• 52:45Speaker 01

  It's a naturally occurring thing in many, many people, I think, you know, large percentage of people. It is not a medical thing.

• 52:53Tom Bilyeu?

  It's not pathological.

• 52:54Speaker 01

  It's not pathological. It, you know, people that are hyper creative, that like get bored of like tasks that they know should be, should not be done by humans, like we're, we should not be acting like machines. They want to be able to do a lot of different things. They want to be able to, you know, receive a lot of different information, jump from task to task. And that's why a lot of founders are ADHD, because we actually get a lot of, you know, satisfaction from context switching. Like, a lot of people ask me, like, oh, you wake up in the morning, you do a finance meeting, you do an engineering meeting, you do a product meeting, and then you do business strategy meeting, and then you do a design meeting, and then you do a HR meeting. And I was like, how can you do this? I was like,

• 53:36Speaker 01

  what are you talking about? This is, this is exactly what I love. I love context switching. I love going from one problem to another, from one fire to another. This is like how I'm wired. Actually, the moment I relax, I just like become kind of like, the moment I, not relax, the moment I put in a place where the, the task is long and repetitive, I just can't do it. And I just become depressed and like really unhappy.

• 54:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, don't go into operations.

• 54:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly. And I, I think that a lot of Gen Z are growing up today and looking at AI and they're saying, okay, I don't have to do that anymore. So it's our version of the pointy haired boss. I don't know who's gonna write that, that comic, but like, they're looking at the world and they're saying that all these jobs are made for machines, they're not made for humans. And what humans are good at is being creative, it's also being, it's understanding what our fellow humans want and need. And therefore, I can create products and services that can benefit people directly. This is my job as a human, is to benefit others, like you were saying. And I can do it directly. I don't need to be part of, I don't need to be a cog, like a node in a very large machine. I can understand

• 54:47Speaker 01

  all aspects of the business. I can start a business, or I can go become a business journalist and be able to contribute. And all different aspects of of a certain corporation.

• 54:55Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, so talk to the Gen Z person that feels a little bit lost. So that speaks directly to the heart of the person who sort of already gets it.

• 55:02Speaker 01

  Right.

• 55:02Tom Bilyeu?

  And this is a good moment for them. But we started all this with, you know, what is Ted Kaczynski right about? And I think we agree on a lot, which is when you wipe out that sweet spot thing, it it will cause some people to feel adrift.

• 55:15Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 55:16Tom Bilyeu?

  I may be too cynical on the percentage of people that can change. So make your best pitch. How do you get somebody, because we both want to see like all of Gen Z, like get on track and make the most of this moment? And not be a generation that gets gobbled up by the transition.

• 55:34Speaker 01

  Right.

• 55:36Tom Bilyeu?

  How do you reach out to the person that doesn't yet know how to plug into where the world of AI is? And especially the reputation AI has of like, oh, don't worry about it, kid. It's going to be better than you at everything.

• 55:49Speaker 01

  The first thing I will say, it's a it's a tool. That is not what you hear in sci fi. That's not what you hear from the AI CEOs. The AI CEOs want to make it sound like a like it is a god. That's how they can fundraise. They can raise like the rounds that are coming together now is huge. And what you what you need to sell investors on is you're inventing god, right? A lot of them don't actually believe that. And I think like fundamentally understand on an intellectual level that it's a tool for you to use. It's not a something that is like made to to replace you. It can actually accentuate. It's it's a technology. It's like any other technology that we invented.

• 56:31Speaker 01

  As humans and in human history, there are there are some things that are special about it, obviously, but it's still ultimately a tool. So start from that premise.

• 56:42Speaker 01

  And then.

• 56:44Speaker 01

  Go about your day to day life and your, your, your schoolwork, your homework. If you, if you're a part of an internship, whatever it is, look at your work from a perspective of like, what is boring and really a job for a machine? What is like my boss told me to, or like my, my teacher told me to do, do this like very manual thing. And go to the simplest tool you can imagine, ChatGPT. And try to automate the, the first basic aspect of it, just like prompt something, get the output and, and play around with it there. But then you go a little further.

• 57:26Speaker 01

  You can ask ChatGPT or you can go to Replit and you can now make, make a piece of software that can help you automate this thing on a, not on a just one time basis, but on a, in a recurring basis. And again, that could be in your personal life. Like there are a lot of things we do in front of our computers or in front of our phones.

• 57:46Speaker 01

  That are very repetitive. And so, train your mind to find these moments and then just struggle with the idea of like automating it. Like, how can I get rid of this problem entirely? So I don't have to do it again. Like for me, you know, I had, you know, all this struggle with some form of sleep issues. And

• 58:09Speaker 01

  my, my sleep doctor gave me like a, like a paper to fill every day when I work, when I wake up to just track my progress. I'm like, why am I writing this down? This doesn't make any sense. So I took a photo of it, put it into Replit, created a piece of software. Now every morning I can, you know, type up the like, you know, what time I went to sleep, how, how I, how I feel, like, you know, other things that happened, what did I eat last night? And then I'm like, you know, that's still too too cumbersome. Like you need to be this lazy. Um, and then, okay, what's, what's the next thing? Well, you know, eight sleep already has, has some of that or whatever tracking software that you use. Some of them have APIs, even if they don't.

• 58:51Speaker 01

  I went and asked it to kind of pull that, what time I slept, what time I wake up. Now I don't have to put in that. I was like, okay, what I ate, what I, what I've, um, you know, uh, what I feel in the morning. So I just like snap pictures of, of things I ate or medicine I take, whatever. And that goes into, into the app. And the morning I just want to talk to it. So I added like another voice to text AI. So just keep going, like, how easy can this be? How frictionless, how frictionless can this be? And so I guess if I were to boil this down, it's to be lazy.

• 59:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Very good advice.

• 59:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, be lazy in a way that, uh, if, if you devolve this mindset of, uh, there are a lot of things in my life that are repetitive and boring and I can get rid of them with AI and then go struggle with getting rid of them with AI. And over time you'll build enough skill in order to actually become second nature to you.

• 59:54Tom Bilyeu?

  That's it for part one. Make sure you are subscribed so you do not miss part two coming up soon.

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