The Assad Regime Ends | EYES ON PODCAST

Today we're joined by Mick Mulroy to talk about the Assad regimes collapse in Syria. Subscribe to the new EYES ON YouTube channel.⬇️ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJytcQbSOEKLGyhNwkqpd3A Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Find Jason here ⬇️https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social Find Andy Milburn here:⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 https://amilburn.substack.com/ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social https://open.substack.com/pub/amilburn/p/journal-of-a-plague-year?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=emo6q&utm_medium=ios Find Mick Mulroy here:⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ https://x.com/MickMulroy?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social #syria Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss.

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• 2:10Speaker 05

  Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes On. I'm Demetri, of course, you have Andy Milburn and Mick Mulroy. And the big news today is the Assad regime in Syria has fallen.

• 2:24Speaker 05

  Mick, what's on your radar with this?

• 2:30Speaker 06

  So I think the first thing to say is not only was it unexpected how quickly the Assad regime collapsed, but also that it happened, quite frankly, just to be, just to be, you know, straightforward with it. I don't know a lot of people, even the people that follow this very closely. And I know we had Charles on, Charles Lister on, just recently, who follows this probably as close as anybody that I know, that really predicted this was going to happen. That said, if you look back in hindsight's 2020, right, you can see the issues that could have led to this, which is Russia fully engaged in a war of their own choice that has significantly

• 3:11Speaker 06

  degraded their capabilities, especially outside of the Ukraine theater. Iran, Hezbollah, obviously getting systematically dismantled by Israel and Lebanon can't afford us to have all their, or a lot of their forces fighting for Assad in his country. So that was some of the factors that led to, I think, this really quick collapse of the regime. And strategically, it's a big failure for Iran and Russia. So that's a good thing. And obviously Assad himself, 13 years of a civil war, responsible for hundreds of thousands, if not over 500,000 civilian deaths,

• 3:56Speaker 06

  half of the population being displaced, and many millions leaving the country. So there's no love lost, there shouldn't be for anybody when it comes to the Assad regime. But the question, of course, is who is HTS? Are they truly moderated version of what they started, which was affiliated essentially of Al Qaeda in Syria? Is Jelani this, you know, new kind of leader? Or is he essentially just saying what he needs to say right now, just like the Taliban did during negotiations for our withdrawal? And even if he is, how is this going to play

• 4:37Speaker 06

  out? Is this really going to be a transition to a government selected by the people? And during

• 4:45Speaker 06

  What about the significant weapons that Assad has, chemical weapons, all these things falling into the wrong hands? Does this turn toward a civil war within a civil war? So there's a lot of questions, I think, that are still out there that we can, of course, talk here. But there, it's something that I think is very concerning, not only to the United States, but the region, right? The region is concerned about a mass exodus of refugees. And of course, we have 900 servicemen and women still active in Syria, in the eastern part. And according to the president's statements today, he's essentially doubling down on their need to be there. So that could change with the incoming administration, don't know.

• 5:30Speaker 06

  But that's another factor in this whole saga that's played out over the last 48 hours.

• 5:37Speaker 07

  Yeah, when we were talking to David McCloskey, just, you know, just last week, it seemed like it was going to be, even though, you know, Hamas had fought and they were advancing on harms, I think, I mean, the consensus among us, I mean, not that that's a very low bar, I know, but David, at least as a has had quite an interesting take on this, but the perception was that Damascus would probably prove too tough and not to crack, and that the, you know, the Russians would at least rally to defend the capital. But obviously, that didn't happen.

• 6:18Speaker 07

  I think, you know, to Mick's point, follow on, it's interesting when unexpected strategic events happen so quickly like this to see who is, who among the major players do have a kind of a backup plan? And, you know, clearly, Russia and Iran didn't, they didn't anticipate this happen. Russia was involved in kind of a, you know, it was focused, has been focused in the last week or so on evacuating its citizens, getting its essential personnel out of there, even out of So the naval port doesn't mean it's giving up on these bases. So I would add that as a note

• 7:00Speaker 07

  of caution and that there's negotiations already taking place in Qatar between the Turks, who are backing HTS and and the Russians. So something something may evolve from that whereby the Russians still maintain a presence in Syria. So it's too early to celebrate. So the you know, the Turks are I would are well placed. Um, it it may be good news for for Europe and the United States, Assad, no crocodile tail is for Assad if there is a measure of stability, and that's the big if. Um, and the, you know, from the US perspective, aside from

• 7:41Speaker 07

  hitting Islamic State targets as a kind of a warning, a preemptive warning, it's not clear that we had a

• 7:48Speaker 00

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• 9:46Speaker 07

  Contingency plan or have a contingency plan on the shelf to handle this. The Israelis obviously did. I mean, they're conducting a series of strikes right now to prevent major weapons systems from falling into the wrong hands. They moved almost instantly into the area beyond the Golan Heights as a buffer zone. So clearly, you know, that wasn't something they threw together on the fly. That is something they had anticipated and be reacting to. But, you know, as a note of caution, typically when brutal dictatorships end, good things don't happen, at least not immediately.

• 10:27Speaker 07

  Think about Yugoslavia, Tito, perhaps not a brutal dictator, definitely a dictator. Think about Libya after Gaddafi, you know, still a mess. And of course Saddam, after the fall of Saddam. So history does not suggest that this, regardless of whether Jelani is sincere about what he's saying about having an inclusive, supporting an inclusive administration. And he's even saying HDS doesn't have to be the leader in this administration, even if he is sincere in that. Recent historical examples suggest that we're in for a period of extreme turbulence in Syria.

• 11:16Speaker 06

  Yeah, agreed, for sure.

• 11:19Speaker 07

  One thing real quick on Jellani, I was interested to see that he was rolled up by the Americans in Mosul in 2005, which happens to be, you know, it's funny how things come together. Carrillo, who now heads CENTCOM, was a battalion commander in Mosul 2005, which I know because I was attached to his battalion as an advisor. And according to the Washington Post, spent five years in Jellani, we're talking about, in US detention, was a friend, or at least a colleague of Baghdadi,

• 11:59Speaker 07

  who headed the Islamic State before they, you know, they broke with the Islamic State back in, I think it was 2014. And as Mick said, the Al-Nusra front, which Jellani headed, was definitely and openly an Al Qaeda affiliate. Now, since then, you know, Jellani's gone after both ISIS and Al Qaeda. But that means little, because even if he is reformed, there are other factors at play. And the guys who entered the prime minister's office, who made it into Damascus, kind of in a circle, government buildings first, were not HDS dudes. They were other Sunni extremist rebels.

• 12:38Speaker 07

  So it would be a mistake to say that Jellani, that the future of Syria is even in Jellani's hands.

• 12:49Speaker 06

  That's true, and we might see this breakdown. You know, there are coalitions, so it's not in their interest to be a coalition, right? Like I said, their main objective has been accomplished. And now it's, we'll find out, you know, whether someone would like to see it, a wholesale Islamic state under the guise of ISIS, or whether there's any inclination really to do what Jellani's telling Western media, right? So, and on the, it seems like every one of these guys got indoctrinated or got their PhD from being incarcerated by the United States in some form or fashion. Those are the ones that usually go on to lead the organization of which they started in, right?

• 13:32Speaker 06

  So that's something we might want to review in the future.

• 13:36Speaker 07

  Yeah, I mean, it's fair. Exactly. That's a really good point because everyone is saying, "Wow, Chalani is like, uh, he's like a, um, a, a very professional military leader." When you look at HTS, they have drone units, they've got tank units, they're tank infantry, you know, they've even, uh, if, if, if you watch some of the videos, they seem to have figured out tank infantry integration, a lot of things that, that in, not all Western militaries are done here thinking, "Where the hell did he learn this?" You know, it's, it wouldn't be surprising if he spent some time in incarceration, learning, uh, much of this doctrine, our own doctrine.

• 14:14Speaker 06

  Yep.

• 14:14Speaker 07

  I mean, after all, that's what Sinwar did with the Israelis.

• 14:18Speaker 06

  That's exactly right. Right? They learn their enemy.

• 14:23Speaker 07

  So what's happened to Assad, Mick? I mean, is it, I, I know he, he appears to have appeared in Moscow, but you think that's, that's for real? I, uh, Jason, uh, Jason commented it might be his body doubles and there was, there was, uh, there were comments and it looked like credible comments on, in Twitter land suggesting that his plane had been shot down last night.

• 14:48Speaker 06

  Yes, and a lot of media organizations were following that, that thought it was credible. It was an IL-76 that apparently was shot down. Maybe that was the case and maybe he just wasn't on it. Uh, Russia, their, their official spokesperson is saying that he has received asylum and his family in Moscow. So could it be a body double? I don't know how long they would, or why they would necessarily find that helpful to do, rather than just acknowledge his death, but he'll have to make some kind of appearance, uh, soon. Uh, but it's clear he's not going back. So even if he made it out, he is, you know, going to be living in Moscow for the rest of his life.

• 15:29Speaker 05

  Yeah, Twitter was on fire yesterday about the, the plane crash and stuff, uh...

• 15:37Speaker 05

  Yeah, I think Jason was joking, I honestly about the body double thing. I mean, is does he former a government in exile and stuff like that and play, you know, sing that tune of like, you know, I'm gonna become, I'm gonna come back and all that or what? What do you think?

• 15:52Speaker 07

  It's difficult to imagine because his, even his loyalists left the sinking ship like rats, you know, I mean, even.

• 16:00Speaker 05

  It seems like there was a negotiation.

• 16:02Speaker 06

  I'd never heard of him, you know?

• 16:06Speaker 06

  Yeah, yeah, I mean, look how fast they just, they just melted away, right?

• 16:10Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 16:10Speaker 06

  I don't see, I mean, he has no real popular support. He was a strong man. He used his brutal tactics to get people to bend to his will, and that didn't work. It had to be Russia, right? He had to have support to even get to where he was. I don't think there's any chance that he would even entertain the idea of being a government in exile that would have any opportunity to come back.

• 16:33Speaker 07

  I suppose, I mean, it's, as we said, it's early days and it, and I, I'm not, I'm not looking for false glimmers of hope, but it is remarkable actually that the transition has been as orderly as it has. I mean, not transition. I mean, if you look, uh, it, it, the ATS imposed a curfew. Um, that doesn't appear to be widespread looting, except in, you know, if you exclude Assad's personal, personal house and a few other um, places. Um, there's been some clashes between, I believe, between the Turks or Tur- or rather Turkish backed rebels and the Kurds

• 17:14Speaker 07

  uh, in, in the northeast of the country. Um, and of course, some clashes between the Israelis and, and the rebels in the vicinity of Golan Heights. But aside from that, so far, um, things seem to be relatively quiet.

• 17:32Speaker 07

  The rebels have had, the other thing is rather than launch into kind of a debuff vacation process, the rebels, or Jalali has appealed personally to the police and civilian authorities, you know, Assad loyalists remain in their posts pending, pending the announcement of, he says, a unity government. So again, I don't want to be Pollyannaish, but at least these are good signs. It's more than we did when we invaded Iraq.

• 17:59Speaker 06

  Yeah, right. We're responsible for the debuff vacation. But the prime minister did stay, Jalali, not to be confused, the HTS leader, but the actual prime minister of Syria did stay, apparently. And he's made statements that all the opposition forces have agreed to this transition. So, I mean, we, we should want it to be the case, right? So we obviously shouldn't root against that happening. So it's a, it's a trust, maybe, but verify kind of scenario. Let's, let's see what they do rather than what they say. But to your point, Andy, they are saying the right things, even, even the opposition forces, so.

• 18:42Speaker 07

  So far, so good. But, you know, just kind of taking a step back, I mean, there are, there are really, and I know there are multiple, there are more factions, I'm, I'm simplifying this absurdly, Syria, you know, Syria analysts will, will no doubt say, but, I mean, there are the four main factions, right? There are the Turkish-backed Sunni rebels, of which HTS is the strongest, but not the only group. And previously, they're up in the northwest, they governed an area around it. There's the Kurds, you know, who essentially the SDF, but also the YPG, who are in the, in the north and east. And then there's, and I'm not sure this is still the case, how strong these

• 19:26Speaker 07

  guys are, but there was a, there's a kind of a Jordanian slash US-backed rebel group in the south. And then you have the Alawite loyalists who, who are along the, along the coast. And each one of those groups has its own army, right? So, I mean, the, the, the potential for civil war to continue is still there. But perhaps, you know, one incentive for that not happening, aside from, you know, Turkish, Qatari diplomacy with.

• 19:59Speaker 07

  Well, basically Turkish-Qatari diplomacy. One is the fact that the Turks and Qatar have a have a plan for a gas gas pipeline to run from Qatar to Bulgaria across Syria, which would be good news for everyone in Europe, because it would reduce dependency on on Russian gas. And of course, good news for the US interests if that comes. And of course, Qatar and Turkey. So, you know, so that that's important because both those countries have funded HTS and the most powerful rebel groups. And now they they stand to benefit from having that gas oil, had a gas platform.

• 20:45Speaker 07

  And then there is the incentive reconstruction itself. I mean, Syria is has been devastated. You know, the cost for reconstruction is estimated around $200 billion money coming in, and all those groups could potentially benefit from that. So if it if presented in the right way, and then I hate to, I hate to turn things over to Erdogan and the Qataris. But certainly, I don't, I'm not sure how much of an active stance you and United States is going to take in this. Then then at least there is a strong incentive to maintain maintain order.

• 21:24Speaker 06

  And that's important, right? So, you know, whether Turkey and Qatar benefit as long as it benefits the Syrian people. And in the case of the oil pipeline, Europe, right, encountering Russia. I mean, that is obviously something, and it would, I would assume it would bring some kind of resources to the Syrian people, right? That if they're going to have this pipeline going through their country, that they would get some of the benefits. And obviously, the reconstruction is to benefit them. So, you know, if countries are willing to to go into a conflict area. And help do the reconstruction, then good on them, to be frank. It's it's a it's not for the the countries that sit on the sideline and criticize.

• 22:10Speaker 06

  So that I think is is super important. The other part that you brought up, Andy, that has a lot of people questioning is just what is Syria, right? So you have large segments of, you mentioned all the different groups, the Alawites on the coast, the Sunni Arabs, you know, in the northwest, the Kurds taking a large portion of the country in the east, and then the that Arab group, which I do believe took part in actual going into Damascus on the Jordan border. I mean, if if they don't come up with a comprehensive way to incorporate all the groups of Syria, they don't have a Syria. I guess is another way to put it. They're just gonna they all have an army, as you said, and they all have territory.

• 22:53Speaker 06

  So and unless other sides are willing to fight and have the ability to win, which they don't, we're essentially going to see a completely partitioned Syria that isn't actually a functioning country. So if the group, the groups that are helping in the transition don't go toward incorporating all other groups, then they're not going to run a Syria as a country. They're going to run whatever section of the country that they already are running.

• 23:22Speaker 07

  Yeah, that's I mean, that's that's a great point. The Turks are already very nervous about and have been about, of course, about the SDF and the SDF against Syria Democratic Forces that are Kurdish backed and and the YPG. And the area of Syria that they control right now is actually very important part of Syria. I mean, it's it has it's the most of the oil fields, I believe, and it's I know the term breadbasket is overused and it's difficult to to think of the breadbasket in Syria, but it is Syria's breadbasket. It's the most arable land up there in the in the northeast and in a country that is largely desert. And so there's certainly,

• 24:04Speaker 07

  you know, the the probably strong Turkish and certainly Turkish proxy incentives to take some of that land back. And that could be behind some of the fighting that's taking place now in Manbij and and Raka on that scene between the Kurds and Arab Turkish backed forces.

• 24:25Speaker 07

  But Mick, what do you think about the Russians? I mean, the, first of all, do you think they were taken as by surprise as everyone else? Do you think this was a conscious decision to, to kind of?

• 24:40Speaker 06

  I think they were surprised. I do. I think we would have seen some effort to surge forces there to try to quash it early on rather than allow it to get momentum. I think they were caught flat footed, just like the rest of us. And by the time they made the decision, you know, the ball was rolling and they, they realized that they would have to contribute a lot to a fight that would largely probably require some ground forces since Hezbollah removed a lot of theirs and they weren't willing to do it, nor did they have it. And then when they started moving their assets out of, you know, Tartus and Latakia, I think that was an indicator to everybody that they weren't going to fully support the regime.

• 25:24Speaker 06

  And that's when, you know, all of his regime forces can see that too. And, and then it just, it starts building on itself. They start abandoning their positions and withdrawing and just disappearing. And then it just becomes fait accompli and that's what happened. So I think Russia realizes that it, it lost quite a bit in this, but they also realized that they didn't have the ability, once it was really rolling, to do anything about it.

• 25:54Speaker 07

  So kind of the man of the hour, the, I mean, it seems to me the guy who emerges from this as far as foreign leaders in the best position is Erdogan. And I mean, I know it's impossible to guess what he's going to do, but the Russians are going to be asking him for some kind of concessions to be allowed back in, I assume. And yet Erdogan.

• 26:18Speaker 07

  Erdogan hits a country that is part of NATO.

• 26:23Speaker 07

  And it would seem to me, I hope that the United States is leaning on him the other way to say no. I mean, what are your thoughts on that? Which way do you, that's an impossible question, which way do you think he's gonna lean?

• 26:35Speaker 06

  It is a difficult question, but the question that isn't difficult is that US should be leaning on, right? We should be. They are part of NATO, they are a longtime key strategic ally of the United States. We have an opportunity to hand Russia a significant defeat, strategic defeat. And we expect them

• 26:56Speaker 07

  At no cost, at no cost to us.

• 26:58Speaker 06

  No cost, at no cost to us. So this, this is, I think, yeah. Exactly. I think this is, now, of course, he's gonna ask something for us, right? So that's the way the world works. But I, you know, and we, you know, when I was in Pentagon, we had these discussions all the time about the YPG, the Kurds, BKK, etc. My take, and I don't know if it holds any sway with President Erdogan, is if you're concerned about the Kurds, then us being with them should make you feel better, right? They're not gonna attack our strategic treaty ally in the presence of the United States. I don't think the SDF would do that anyway. But, you know, without getting into the, you know, the whole discussion.

• 27:43Speaker 06

  I always thought the best argument we had, but certainly was

• 27:48Speaker 06

  it did hold sway with many of our Turkish allies, was that the United States being with the Kurds is a positive for Turkey. Right? So if that's gonna be the quid pro quo, I hope that we don't go down that road. We need to stay, we need to ensure that our partners are, to your said, it's a very minor contribution that has had a very significant outcome, not just in terms of defeating ISIS and ensuring the enduring defeat, but strategically against Iran and Russia. And the proof is right in front of us today. So hopefully that he can see that as well.

• 28:26Speaker 07

  What, you mentioned concessions. What, what other concessions do you think he may ask for? Do we ever give, end up giving him the F-16s that were such a huge issue back in? Twenty sixteen seventeen.

• 28:41Speaker 05

  Thirty fives. No, no.

• 28:43Speaker 06

  F thirty fives. I, you know, so the question was the, uh, the S three hundreds that he was purchasing from Russia. I

• 28:52Speaker 07

  Russia.

• 28:53Speaker 06

  Don't believe he

• 28:54Speaker 05

  I don't think they got the F thirty fives.

• 28:56Speaker 06

  Him on. Turn the, the F three, the S three hundred. And I think they might have, I don't know. Uh, maybe we'll, somebody, we should look that up.

• 29:06Speaker 00

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• 29:48Speaker 00

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• 31:19Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 31:19Speaker 06

  Don't use Russian air missile defense, one, because it sucks. Two, you can't, there's an issue of using that in close proximities to the F-35. So that was the other issue was a, it was a operational security thing.

• 31:35Speaker 05

  Yeah. So they never got the F-35s because they were getting the S-400, like you said, the S, yeah.

• 31:43Speaker 06

  Yeah, S-400 is right, the most advanced one. So maybe that's part of the discussions when it comes to making sure the Russians soundly defeated. Does not, is not allowed to go back in to maintain its warm water port or its airbase.

• 32:01Speaker 06

  Just a diplomatic presence like anybody else.

• 32:06Speaker 05

  So in terms of like US interests and national security interests, I mean, we have a legitimate interest in making sure that Syria doesn't become like Libya and like a bastion of like where terrorists can have camps, whether it's ISIS or any other.

• 32:24Speaker 05

  HTS is technically a terrorist organization, right?

• 32:28Speaker 05

  So like outside of like the economic, because I don't think we're going to have like a foot to stand on in there. Unless Turkey really does a lot of

• 32:37Speaker 05

  a lot of like helps us out. What are those, what are those security goals? Like what, what are the objectives from now?

• 32:48Speaker 07

  Well, one is to... I'm sorry, go ahead.

• 32:51Speaker 06

  No, you go ahead.

• 32:52Speaker 07

  Yeah, one is to negate that, to deny that area to our enemies or to our, you know, adversarial or countries that are, whose interests are inevitable to our own, namely Iran and, yes, Russia.

• 33:08Speaker 07

  It's long concerned us that Iran had, I know it's a cliche, but had developed a land bridge from Iraq to Lebanon. And so, any interruption of that, because all the disruption that came with that was against our interests. Of course, it's against our interests too, although some may not think so to deny Russia a warboard of port in the Mediterranean. That's, I would say, number one. Number two is just having a stable, energy-producing country there and not, no longer a sucking chest wound that is disgorging immigrants across Europe.

• 33:50Speaker 07

  And it's, you know, it would be difficult to understate the destabilizing influence that the war has had across Europe since 2011. I mean, the flood of Syrian refugees, Turkey alone is home to what, I mean, it's millions, right? I think something like four million. But so is the rest of Europe. There isn't a country in Europe, except for some eastern countries that have actively blocked them, that is not home to large numbers of Syrian refugees. And the effect on the economy, the effect on geopolitics, you know, the Brexit, the

• 34:31Speaker 07

  rise of populist parties in, certainly in Hungary and for a while there in Poland, other countries in Europe, and the rise of the right, the new right in Germany, all directly related to the inflow of refugees, most of whom are Syrian. So you see what a destabilizing influence the war in Syria has had, you know, across, at least across Europe, I would argue, across the world. All of those things, negating all of those things and enabling reconstruction, a stable government, an alternate source of energy for countries in Europe are things that are definitely within the interest of the United States.

• 35:15Speaker 06

  Yeah, and it's important to point out that the US, the only authority we have to be in Syria comes actually from the 2002 AUMF, right, the authorized US military force related to Al Qaeda and its affiliates, right? So, yeah, you start with Al Qaeda, you end up with Al Qaeda in Iraq, and then ISIS, and therefore, we are there, the authority, the legal authority to stay there is from that. So it's an important mission of itself, obviously, to defeat ISIS and sure it doesn't come back. But the secondary benefits that I would say we got is everything Andy just said, right? So it's pushing back against Russia, it's pushing back against Iran, it's cutting off the Iran corridor that brings arms to Hezbollah.

• 36:00Speaker 06

  It's all of these things, but the authority is the AUMF, the original AUMF. So we're there to help enable a partner to defeat ISIS. But our presence there is beyond just that, and we get a lot of strategic benefit from it. And by the way, if we were, every time we talked about reducing any of the forces when I was in the Pentagon, the first thing we heard from was Israel, then Jordan, and then it went down the list. The countries in the region do not want to see the United States leave Syria, period, period. They might have questions about, you know, what we're doing, who we're doing it with,

• 36:39Speaker 06

  all that stuff, but there's almost a universal, from my experience, belief that the US does help bring some stability in what would be complete chaos if we left. And that includes on top with this, in the southern border area of Jordan, and obviously all the positions with the SDF in the east. But the US is there primarily for countering terrorism, but the secondary is countering Russia, countering Iran. And I think that's just as important, and now it's shown to be that it's actually effective.

• 37:20Speaker 07

  Altar, by the way, is a very interesting place. I've been there a couple of times. I mean, it is, I've got to be careful about using the term shithole because every time I say shithole on this podcast, we get multiple complaints because it turns out it's someone's hometown, even Brooklyn. But Altar is the classic shithole, but a very strategically important one. And for a while, we held it down with, you know, what was an AOB. It was a kind of reinforced company with a partner nation force. And everyone was asking, you know, the media was asking why we're there. But it was a, we were a strategic speed bump and we were carving out, I mean,

• 38:00Speaker 07

  it was more than that. But we were, we were establishing just by our presence there, establishing a buffer zone that now is more important than ever. So to Mick's point, yeah, I would hope that we retain a presence there. 900 dudes total in, you know, the mid lower Euphrates Valley, which is, it's a very small amount. But again, goes, and by the way, a large, not all, but a large portion of those are special operations forces. So it goes again to why do we have special operations forces, small numbers achieving strategic effect. I think it's a great example, working by with and through partner nation forces. The other thing, the

• 38:45Speaker 07

  answer to your question, as far as negating bad consequences and what follows on is, remember this, the Russians have been pouring money, and Iran to a lesser extent, have been pouring money into the Assad regime's defense industry for a while. All right. I mean, Assad has, we know he has poison gas, he's used it multiple times, or at least. Yeah, multiple, it's fair to say more than once, multiple times. You know, obviously, he's got a fleet of jets, he's got a even after Israeli attacks, a significant anti-air defense capability goes on and on.

• 39:25Speaker 07

  All of those assets falling into the wrong hands could spell bad things for stability in the Middle East and for the United States. It's interesting, we may not have had a contingency plan, but as I commentated, the Israelis did. And looking, you know, on Israeli official Twitter sites, their air force conducted a series of strikes yesterday in over a hundred locations. Okay, according to them, the biggest air campaign that they have conducted since 1973, since the Yom Kippur War. And what are they focused on? Weapons production facilities, air defense systems, Syrian fighter jets. I don't know about, you know, WMD doesn't mention that.

• 40:11Speaker 07

  But but clearly that was part of their contingency plan to deny all of these weapons to, you know, prevent them from falling into the wrong hands, which is a good thing.

• 40:23Speaker 06

  Interesting side note, because I got a text from a friend of mine this morning on this is one of the issues that may be resolved. If you recall, when we went into Iraq, we were on the hunt for weapons of mass destruction and didn't find many. Some people believe that some of those were transferred to Syria. So I don't know, I'm not gonna, I don't know, I was but a young paramilitary officer at the time on that team. But it would be interesting to know, because I imagine there will be some kind of records, maybe. If they didn't destroy them, that, you know, some of these chemical weapons may have came from Iraq. That's that's for the analyst in the IC to determine.

• 41:05Speaker 06

  But it's an interesting side note is there's going to be a pretty significant intelligence effort now that largely these these folks has abandoned their posts. The intelligence service especially, and they're going to try to see, not only that, which is of interest to the US IC as a whole, but everybody that helped the regime in the last, you know. Twenty years, certainly the last thirteen years, and how they got around sanctions and how they did that. It can all be there. So there's a lot of nervous people, I think, companies, etc., and maybe they should be. Uh, because I think this is gonna be, this is gonna be.

• 41:41Speaker 07

  Maybe even politicians.

• 41:43Speaker 06

  Maybe even politicians, that's right.

• 41:46Speaker 07

  I, it would be, I.

• 41:49Speaker 07

  That, that would certainly be something that I hope in negotiating with the Turks to, for our, you know, our intelligence community to get their hands on. Um, that, I mean, let's see, that would be a significant find, finding the W and D at last. Twenty years later. Yeah, hey, on a. Damn it. Um, on a, uh, no, that's not Richie's sign that we need to be ending, he's just gonna. Uh, on a, uh, on, on a lightened note, you know, I, regardless of who was doing it, it was great seeing all these dudes being freed from, uh, from prisons. You know, there was, um, uh, something like the, the big prison in Harms, I, I forget the name, it begins with S.

• 42:34Speaker 07

  But there's something like thirteen thousand prisoners being freed from there, and these people having gone through, you know, just unimaginable hardship over the last few years. There's one guy who was imprisoned by Assad's father, Hafiz, because he beat him in a, in a, a horse competition, like a show champion competition, and has been in prison since then. You know, but these guys being released and just wandering down the street, uh, it's just, I mean, you can imagine how, how that must have felt. I mean, I, I got a lot of, amidst all the chaos, I got a lot of vicarious pleasure and relief from watching that.

• 43:13Speaker 06

  Yeah, and I actually got a chance to meet Caesar. If you remember the Caesar Act, it's named after him. He was the guy who smuggled out. Hundred thousands of photos of what they did in the prisons that I mean even when he came to the Pentagon, he had to have a mask on and all that stuff. But then his efforts led to the Caesar Act, which of course, so and it's got to be super emotional. I have a lot of Syrian friends, some of these are still do work for the White Helmets. So they've been texting me, you know, reuniting with people that have been in prison for 10 years, tortured the entire time. It's, it's, it's, we shouldn't go past that worrying about everything that we should worry about. But we should, to your point, Andy, recognize

• 43:56Speaker 06

  that for the Syrian people, this is absolutely a hugely emotional experience and one that will never be forgotten in the country. For sure. In fact, and I remember when we were going through Iraq, we came down from the north, and it was a similar situation where the prisons were being let out. And we were talking to some older man who was going through a translation with his son, and he kept whispering like really, really softly. And finally, as he started crying, and, you know, we said, why is he crying? He goes, I told my dad he didn't have to whisper anymore. You know, and that always stuck to me going, oh, wow, yeah, he should, he should never whisper again, right? He's, he's free. And

• 44:40Speaker 06

  it's, it's, it's something that we should remember, right? We get, you know, we're analysts, we focus on the national security implications, and that's what people I think want us to do. But it's also, there's a very human part of this. And right now, it is on display in Syria.

• 44:58Speaker 05

  Yeah, very well said.

• 44:59Speaker 00

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• 47:02Speaker 05

  I mean, how do we not end it there? That was perfect. Guys, don't forget to check out Mick's organizations, Fogwell and, oh my God.

• 47:17Speaker 06

  Lobo.

• 47:18Speaker 05

  Thank you, Jesus. Sorry about that. Of course, Mick is an analyst for ABC and Izan. Don't forget that. I'm coming for George Stephanopoulos. Don't worry about that.

• 47:31Speaker 05

  Andy Milburn, his book, When the Tempest Gathers, his Substack, his LinkedIn, his Blue Sky. All the links that you will need are in the description. I've made it very easy.

• 47:42Speaker 05

  Any final thoughts from you guys? Andy?

• 47:47Speaker 05

  You said it all.

• 47:48Speaker 07

  None from me.

• 47:49Speaker 05

  Stay tuned this week. We're gonna be extremely busy. We're gonna have multiple shows.

• 47:55Speaker 05

  A South Korean general, I forgot his name, Andy, what's his name?

• 47:59Speaker 07

  Lieutenant General Choon, yeah. And won a Korean version of the Medal of Honor in the 80s, right? And when we were nominally at peace with North Korea, of course, it never really has been peace. But when you read the story of how it happened, when you hear it, it's extraordinary. But also a big YouTuber in Korea. Good to see a retired lieutenant general doing that. Big following, you know, to include among the young. With comments about their recent, it's being called an auto coup, right? Auto not as an automatic, but being imposed from above. By President Yoon in Korea and what the implications are. And also his comments about threat from within, within South Korea and

• 48:42Speaker 07

  and and the North and from North Korea, you know, something that has dropped off the radar perhaps with all these all these other events around the world.

• 48:51Speaker 05

  Yeah, so excited for that. And also on Thursday, we're gonna have Charles Lister on to give us blow by blow of what's going on in Syria. At that point, we should have a little bit more information coming in. Maybe what a government would look like there or like the makings of a government. So it's gonna be a busy week at Eyes On. Don't forget to subscribe and like the videos. If you're listening to us on podcast. Rate and review it five stars. That helps as well. And support the show. Patreon.com slash the team house. Thanks, guys. This is good. Good stuff.

• 49:28Speaker 07

  Thank you, guys. Bye, everyone. Have a good rest of your day.

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