All-In's 2026 Predictions

(0:00) California exodus, asset seizure tax, Besties to Austin? (12:27) Biggest Political Winner (17:45) Biggest Political Loser (32:15) Biggest Business Winner (40:51) Biggest Business Loser (49:34) Biggest Business Deal (56:15) Most Contrarian Belief (1:03:05) Best Performing Asset (1:08:02) Worst Performing Asset (1:15:17) Most Anticipated Trend (1:21:18) Most Anticipated Media Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/reidhoffman/status/2009015043258552670 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/technology/google-founders-california-wealth-tax.html https://x.com/Daily_MailUS/status/2008903817341931618 https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-radiologist-apocalypse https://www.tipranks.com/news/atlanta-fed-doubles-q4-gdp-estimate-to-5-4-as-trade-deficit-plunges https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/the-160-000-mechanic-job-that-ford-cant-fill-fe6fd121

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  This is what we need. Let him go.

• 0:01Jason Calacanis?

  All right, here we go.

• 0:02Speaker 00

  This is Jason in the corner, warming up.

• 0:04Jason Calacanis?

  Two, shut the up, Friedberg. It's my show. Three, two. All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. The podcast I, Jason Calacanis, named, created, and I'm the executive producer for life. With me, my three Miss Grant friends, Chamath Palihopatia, our dictator. Love you, brother. Good seeing you in Tahoe. David Friedberg, our Sultan of Science, and yeah, the czar, yeah, who's now made his way down to Austin. Welcome, brother. Let's go shooting. Let's get those beef ribs. David Sacks, how are you? How are you, uh, how are you settling into the great state of Texas? Everybody wants to know.

• 0:43David Sacks?

  I'm loving the 70 degree weather. Is it like this all year round?

• 0:47Jason Calacanis?

  You know, it's, uh, this is a very wonderful time of year. Uh, you miss the two weeks where it goes to freezing temperatures. We have 10 days of freezing temperatures and then we have 80 days of 100 degree temperatures. But you'll be on a yacht or Italy or somewhere during that, like the rest of us. That's basically all you need to know about Austin. Just get out during the summers because it's brutal. That's it. Everything else is fan frickin' tastic. But in all seriousness, you're here. You're here. You've moved. You've domiciled in Texas. This is, this is, this has happened.

• 1:19David Sacks?

  It happened. It happened in December.

• 1:22Jason Calacanis?

  Yes.

• 1:23David Sacks?

  And so we closed on a new house. We moved in, went to the DMV. I signed a lease for an Austin office for craft.

• 1:32Jason Calacanis?

  Nice.

• 1:33David Sacks?

  It's done.

• 1:34Jason Calacanis?

  It's done.

• 1:34David Sacks?

  It's done.

• 1:36Jason Calacanis?

  Okay. I gotta, I'll get you a dentist and whatever else you need.

• 1:39David Sacks?

  I got a doctor too.

• 1:41Jason Calacanis?

  Okay. Does this mean I have to bring Moose back? This has been the big discussion in our house. Does this mean we lose Moose or do we have joint custody?

• 1:48David Sacks?

  He needs a significant acreage to run around. We know that.

• 1:51Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, he does. He does. But he misses you and I will definitely bring him by for a visit. And we'll be playing some backgammon, smoking some cigars.

• 2:00David Sacks?

  Yeah, you gotta come by.

• 2:01Jason Calacanis?

  Cannot wait.

• 2:02David Sacks?

  I can't believe you haven't come by yet.

• 2:03Jason Calacanis?

  And Chamath, what about you guys? You guys gonna come down? Two of four besties.

• 2:07Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Matt and I started the process in December. We are coming to check things out. We have not made any final decisions, though.

• 2:13Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, shout out to our boy Ro Khanna for driving everybody out of the state.

• 2:17David Sacks?

  So here's the funniest thing is we're all in the chat group discussing the California wealth tax, whether people are gonna leave or not. So Chamath, he's making a big show. I'm gonna stay and fight. I'm not leaving my home. They can't drive me out. And then meanwhile, I get a call from my broker who says she's helping Chamath find a place.

• 2:37Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, oh.

• 2:38David Sacks?

  What's going on?

• 2:39Jason Calacanis?

  Chamath doing backdoor trading? I'm shocked that Chamath tells you one thing and is doing another.

• 2:44Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh, my God.

• 2:45David Sacks?

  He's at least hedging his bets.

• 2:46Jason Calacanis?

  He's hedging his bets.

• 2:47David Sacks?

  A lot of people are hedging their bets. A lot of people are hedging.

• 2:50Jason Calacanis?

  Sergey's in Florida. He got a, I'm sorry, Larry's got a beautiful place in Florida, I see, according to the news. A lot of people. And I saw Governor Abbott reached out to you.

• 3:01David Sacks?

  That's right. He welcomed me to Texas on X. A lot of people did. Michael Dell did.

• 3:08Jason Calacanis?

  Ted Cruz.

• 3:09David Sacks?

  Ted Cruz. And yeah, it was a real welcome reception. It's funny. I never got anything like that when I was in California.

• 3:14Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Jason, I put it, I put this on.

• 3:17David Sacks?

  The politicians were never.

• 3:18Jason Calacanis?

  They weren't embracing you.

• 3:19David Sacks?

  Yeah, they were embracing me. I don't know why.

• 3:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Who knows? I put this on X, but when you look at our friends that have all explicitly left, it's about half a trillion of net worth, which I think is very bad for the long-term budget of California. Then I can pick about 25 people just off the top of my head. And then if you think about all the people that will stay and fight, I still intend to stay and fight, but where if we're forced to look down the barrel of a, an asset tax that has god knows what methodology, it's the only thing that's united everybody on the left and the right. Even Reid Hoffman thinks this is insane.

• 4:01Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think a lot of other people will leave. It's probably half the total wealth that the budget estimated would be available to be taxed will be gone.

• 4:10Jason Calacanis?

  Wow. I mean, these are, I don't understand.

• 4:13Chamath Palihapitiya?

  That has huge implications to the social programs and the general budget of California.

• 4:17David Sacks?

  Listen, I think this is going to be a topic, this is a prediction. I think this is going to be a topic throughout the year because it's not going away. They're gathering signatures right now.

• 4:26Jason Calacanis?

  I agree.

• 4:27David Sacks?

  And we're going to find out in, say, April, whether it's on the ballot. Now, it's possible they don't gather the signatures, but they only need about 850,000 of them. If it gets on the ballot, you know, again, we'll know in just a few months, there's going to be a huge freak out. And I think there'll be a lot of people who will say, I can't take the risk. They're going to leave the state. So I think there's going to be a rush for the exits. There's going to be all sorts of repercussions from that. Then there'll be an election in November. Obviously, we'll find out if it passes or not. And then there'll be legal challenges. So this is going to be a saga. I don't think this is over by a long shot. And quite frankly, even if it's beaten in 2026, I think a lot of people expect that some version, this comes back in 2028,

• 5:09David Sacks?

  which is the thing that kind of pushed me over the edge in terms of leaving is I don't think this problem is going away.

• 5:14Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's very difficult if you're an entrepreneur with a good idea to start building here because if you get stuck in success with a bunch of illiquid stock and have no way to pay 5% of that value, you're going to bankrupt your own company. Just doesn't make any sense.

• 5:30David Sacks?

  And what is if your company goes to zero the next year, which can totally happen with private companies, you still owe the tax bill.

• 5:37Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, I don't know how that reverses itself. It's a terrible idea. I mean, I was talking to Ro Khanna and Eric Swalwell, who we had on the program. And I told these guys, like, these dopey Democrats, you have to stop fraud first before you start seizing people's assets or start a discussion about raising taxes. And, you know, we had Nick Shirley on last week, who is doing his investigative journalism, shout out to Shirley. And how do we sell to the American public? That we want to seize their assets while and then sending it out the back door to fund fraud. That makes no sense. It's a leaky bucket, so fix the bucket first.

• 6:19Jason Calacanis?

  And then let's have an honest discussion about what the right tax rate is and and. Why do this with the unique tax? Why don't I just put a point on to capital gains or income tax and have that discussion?

• 6:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  That's a great point. You could also do what Bill Ackman suggested, which is. Stop allowing these margin loans. There's a lot that actually live off of margin. Is it a good idea? Yes and no, depending on the asset base you have. And if the tax laws changed, we would all change the approach.

• 6:46David Sacks?

  You mentioned that Larry and Sergey have left the state and they're probably getting dragged for that. But one of the reasons why I think they kind of have to is because the super voting stock provision. In this thing where the way they calculate the value of your stock is not based on its. Liquid market value, but if you own super voting shares. They multiply your ownership, your super voting by the market cap of the company. And they deem your shares be worth that, yeah. So for example, Larry and Sergey, I think they combined. Have voting power of about 52% of Google. So what's Google worth these days about?

• 7:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Three and a half trillion, four trillion.

• 7:22David Sacks?

  Okay, so now I think, I mean, they're very wealthy guys and they're each worth whatever 100 billion ish or. Whatever it is.

• 7:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think.

• 7:31David Sacks?

  200, but now their net worth will be deemed to be. I guess each one of them would be deemed to be roughly 1 trillion each. Not the, call it 200 billion. So the 5% tax for them is more like a 25% tax of all their net worth.

• 7:47Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So I mean, it becomes, it becomes 50 because you'd have to sell more than that to overcome. The drag of selling to generate 25 billion or 50 billion of net worth. You have to sell 2X that because you have to pay taxes on that.

• 7:58David Sacks?

  Right, so now what is the point of having that super voting? Provision in there is just totally punitive and vicious.

• 8:06Jason Calacanis?

  All right, so let's just go with a quick prediction here. I'm going to call an audible. We're going to get into the prediction show, folks. We've been delaying this prediction show because the world is moving at an incredible pace and the news is just, let's just call it what it is. It's just intense. We have a lot of stories you all want us to to cover. We will cover them, but we're going to start with our prediction show. Just lightning round prediction here. Does this seizure tax, I'm going to call it what it is. It's a seizure tax. They're seizing assets. Does the seizing assets tax go into effect or not? Does it pass or not? Friedberg, your first, yes or no? Give us a percentage polymarket it. Well, does it get on the ballot first and then does it? Well, we know it's going to get on the ballot. I think we agree with that.

• 8:46David Friedberg?

  That's not correct.

• 8:47Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, we don't know. Okay. So then I'll make it a two part. Fine. Does it get on the ballot? Does it pass? Chomak, you seem ready to go. Go. No, Friedberg, go ahead.

• 8:55David Friedberg?

  I don't think it's going to get on the ballot.

• 8:57Jason Calacanis?

  Oh.

• 8:58David Friedberg?

  I agree with that. In California, 100%.

• 9:01Jason Calacanis?

  All right. Here's your polymarket, everybody. Shout out to Shane. This is to make the ballot. This is to make the ballot. This is the question. Will the billionaires to Austin tax, wealth tax, drive people? Will it make it onto the California ballot lightly traded currently at 69%?

• 9:20David Sacks?

  Did you see how much lower it was? That spike happened after Ro Khanna elevated the issue. So when it became a cause celebre among progressives and Bernie Sanders weighed in, it spiked up from, what was it, like 45% to 80%?

• 9:34Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so when Ro Khanna committed political seppuku, it drove up. Maybe he had a bet. Maybe he placed a bet.

• 9:41David Sacks?

  I don't think it's political suicide for him. There's only two ways it doesn't get on the ballot, right? One is if the SCIU UHW, which is the union that supported this, proposed it, doesn't have the money to pay to collect the signatures. But you would think that they would, right? Eight million or so is roughly what it costs to gather the signatures for these types of things. Clearly, they can find 850,000 people in California who support it. If they're willing to put the effort in. The other possibility is that the powers that be, let's call it Gavin Newsom and the machine, are able to negotiate with this union to get them to stand down.

• 10:22David Sacks?

  And I don't have any insight into that because that's obviously Democrat politics, not Republican politics.

• 10:29Jason Calacanis?

  Freebie and Chamath might have some information. Okay, we'll leave it at that.

• 10:33David Sacks?

  We're gonna, we're gonna leave it at that. But if it does get on the ballot, what do you think the odds are that it passes?

• 10:38Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think it's gonna be a really important

• 10:41Jason Calacanis?

  Forty percent.

• 10:41Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Moment for people to vote. The ability to be industrious and have agency. Or what did Mamdani say? It's rugged individualism versus

• 10:53Jason Calacanis?

  Collectivism, also known as communism, as in collect. We collect your assets, Chamath.

• 10:58David Sacks?

  He said that we're gonna replace The frigidity. The frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.

• 11:07Jason Calacanis?

  I mean, at least he's saying it out loud. I like this new, I like these new politicians just telling you straight up what we're doing.

• 11:15David Sacks?

  Well, his new housing commissioner, have you seen this?

• 11:18Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, the white lady's like, white people must suffer. And then she's like, she had these things where she's like, I see white babies in the airport and it makes me mad. And I'm like, really? This is crazy.

• 11:30Jason Calacanis?

  What man broke up with this lady? Because that dude has created a monster.

• 11:36David Sacks?

  Didn't she say something like, we need to introduce a new relationship between white people and property, the property rights or something?

• 11:43Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, exactly.

• 11:44Jason Calacanis?

  I mean, they're saying it out loud now. And then I guess she had a mental breakdown and started crying when they came to see her.

• 11:51David Sacks?

  No, no, what happened is they pointed out that her parents own a multimillion dollar home and then she broke down in tears.

• 11:57Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, her mom's a white supremacist? I didn't realize her mom was a white supremacist. That explains it all. Because this is all about her mommy issues.

• 12:05David Sacks?

  I feel bad for her parents.

• 12:06Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, God, can you imagine your, imagine when your kid goes and does this? It says, we have to go collect your houses. I mean, listen, let's do it. Let's do it. Everybody wants to hear. Our predictions for 2026. We've been pushing it off. We're gonna give it to you right now. We always like to start since, you know, we got into politics here on the program at some point. The biggest political winner, last year's prediction for biggest political winner for 2025, to remind everybody, Friedberg said young candidates, well done. Gavin, who was on the show, sitting in for Sacks, who was busy joining the administration. He said Trump and centrism would be the biggest political winner. Chamath, you said fiscal conservatives who asked for restrained spending. It was a good thought.

• 12:52Jason Calacanis?

  And I said Gen X and elder millennials, the J.D. Vance, Tulsi, Sacks group. So let's go around the horn here. I wonder, Friedberg, who you think will be the biggest political winner of 2026? Friedberg, your chance.

• 13:07David Friedberg?

  Democratic Socialists of America, the DSA, just like the MAGA movement took over the Republican Party, I think the DSA is taking over the Democrat Party, and I think that's the move we'll see solidified in 2026.

• 13:17Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, tight is right, well done. Chima, who do you got for biggest political winner 2026?

• 13:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Whoever is going to fight waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local level.

• 13:29Jason Calacanis?

  Got it, so it's an open lane to anybody?

• 13:31Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's an open lane. It's a political gambit that I think will work really well in 26.

• 13:38Jason Calacanis?

  Very nicely done. David Sacks, gosh, I can't imagine who you would pick as a political winner in 2026.

• 13:44David Sacks?

  Well, I'm gonna, I'm gonna say that the Trump boom is gonna be the biggest political winner of 2026. The good economic news has started breaking out before 2025 was even over. We have 2.7% inflation, core CPI at 2.6, both those are 40 basis points below expectations, 4.3% GDP growth in Q3, lowest trade deficit since 2009. The Challenger Gray report out today showed that job cuts dropped 50% from November, which was itself down about 50% from October.

• 14:16Jason Calacanis?

  Give us a number for the boom. What is it gonna be?

• 14:18David Sacks?

  Hold on, the S&P 500 keeps making record highs, people are paying less for gas, mortgage costs have fallen by $3,000, real wages are up over $1,000, and by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts, possibly 75 to 100 basis points, and big tax refunds are coming in April, thanks to a bigger standard deduction and no tax on tips over time and social security. So I think there is so much good economic news coming, and it's already started, and I think that it's gonna have a huge impact, not just on the economy, but also on political perceptions for next year.

• 14:53Jason Calacanis?

  Pick your GDP for this boom year, 3, 4, 5, or 6 points, Sacks, I'm pitting you down. Pick 3, 4, 5.

• 14:59Chamath Palihapitiya?

  If you make it a prediction, then I'd like to pick as well.

• 15:02Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, I'm gonna go Sacks first.

• 15:03David Sacks?

  I'm gonna go for 5%.

• 15:04Jason Calacanis?

  Ooh.

• 15:05David Sacks?

  Within a rounding error, I believe, 5%.

• 15:06Jason Calacanis?

  Sure, sure, sure, plus or minus. Chima, you wanna pick a number? You said you did.

• 15:11Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I think the lower bound is 5, I think the upper bound is 6, too.

• 15:14Jason Calacanis?

  Wow, incredible, well.

• 15:16Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Just to put that in perspective.

• 15:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  If we print six, the only country in the modern world that we think of as a quasi-peer competitor that has printed six is the Chinese in a period where it had complete and total coordination and domination of a federal, state and local economy. And the fact that we can do it under democracy and capitalism is outrageous.

• 15:43Jason Calacanis?

  Freiburg, do you want to take a stab at that?

• 15:44David Friedberg?

  2026 growth?

• 15:45Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah.

• 15:45David Friedberg?

  4.6%.

• 15:47Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, I was gonna go with between four and five as well. In terms of my prediction for the big political winner, I went back and forth between the emperor's apprentice, Darth Vance, J.D. Vance, or the Mondami moment. I said Darth Vance for a couple of reasons. You know, he is out there defending Trump, and he's surging on polymarket, ending the polls. He's obviously the co-pilot of MAGA. He's done a great job of being second seat. He is not usurping President Trump, which would be a big political mistake. He's really navigating being the co-pilot there. But he is the most popular politician, clearly at Turning Point USA, and he is the OG in the America First, America Only moment. But

• 16:28Jason Calacanis?

  I'm gonna give the edge to the Mondami moment. He's 34 years old. He's got Ro Khanna at 49, pivoting into a socialist. And I think that's because Democrats believe the easiest way to win in 2026 is to go full socialist. And Trump has, I think, given this lane because he's forgotten about the working man and woman in America. Net disapproval for Trump on the economy, 58% inflation, despite what Sacks is saying there, it's still closer to 3% than 2%. And Trump just announced he wants to increase the military budget by 50% while people are still complaining about their healthcare. And Trump has turned into a complete neocon, bombing seven countries this year, and threatening to take over Colombia

• 17:12Jason Calacanis?

  and Greenland. Who knows if that's Trump being Trump, or if that's reality. But Trump becoming a neocon was not on anyone's bingo card. And I think Trump may have incited and given a bunch of fuel to the Mondami moment by not addressing the American people's needs and going for the international interventionism.

• 17:34Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, now.

• 17:36David Sacks?

  There was like three different answers right there.

• 17:38Jason Calacanis?

  My answer is clearly Madami. My second place, though, I like to always explain my thinking, is Darth Vance, J.D. Vance, biggest political loser. Last year's predictions, I said Putin, Gavin said Putin, Chamath, you said progressivism. And Friedberg, you said the pro-war neo-cons would be the biggest political losers. Uh, let's get into who we think will be the loser this year. Uh, Sax, why don't you start? Who's your big political loser in 2026, you think?

• 18:06David Sacks?

  Well, I said democratic centrism or democratic centrists, which is sort of the flip side of you guys saying that socialism or progressives are winners. And there's two reasons for this. One is because the socialist ideology is sort of ascended among the democratic base, especially the young people who support Mamdani, things like that. Unfortunately, our universities, our work madrassas have done a terrible job educating these students, and they've brainwashed a lot of them into this woke ideology. But also, there's the fact that there's so few House districts anymore that are truly competitive. So both the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball,

• 18:48David Sacks?

  they say that there's fewer than two dozen House races that are genuinely competitive going into 2026. That's because of gerrymandering and so on. So if you're a Democrat incumbent who is in one of these districts, like all but a couple dozen of them, your only real threat to losing your office is from the left, right? It's some young AOC type coming up to challenge you. And so you don't want to expose your left flank. So even the Democratic moderates have been shifting further and further to the left. And so you see this AOC-Mamdani effect happening there. So I'm kind of in the same camp as you guys, as this is not a good trend. But I put this as biggest political loser.

• 19:31Jason Calacanis?

  Biggest political loser.

• 19:32David Sacks?

  Democratic centrism.

• 19:33Jason Calacanis?

  Got it. Chamath, where do you go?

• 19:36Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Can I just go back and just nitpick with you a little bit? Why do you think progressivism didn't fail? And the only reason I ask you that is outside of a few pockets of progressivism, and specifically Mumdani. If you look at the elections in Virginia or the elections in New Jersey, those are more centrist than progressive. And if you look at the general approval rates of Democrats, they trended consistently down through 2025 as they hand-wringed themselves about leaving centrism and embracing progressivism. So the more talking points around progressivism that emerged, the poorer they performed. So I know your perception, or some people's perceptions,

• 20:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  may be different based on one localized win, but if you look at the broad trend, it didn't work. I just put that out there, just as the facts and not the vibes.

• 20:30David Sacks?

  Well, I don't want it to be true, just to be clear.

• 20:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I'm picking more of-

• 20:34David Sacks?

  I would love for the Democratic Party to be as centrist as possible.

• 20:36Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And I don't want it to be true either, but it does seem like that part is certain. No, but you just tested like it was wrong, and I wasn't wrong. Well, it might be a jump ball, might be the best way to describe it, because you have the Mumdani effect. I was right. Okay. Just look at the numerical numbers. The trends were horrible. Like, meaning wherever the Democrats started, the more progressive talking points they added, the poorer and poorer they performed. The approval ratings went down, the disapproval ratings went up. I'm not saying that they didn't win a mayoral race. They did do that. I'm just saying broadly speaking, nationwide, is the Democratic Party and its embrace of progressivism, at least at the federal level, has it paid off over 2025? And I would say categorically, mathematically, not. Okay. Okay, now going to 2026.

• 21:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  What is my biggest political loser? What I would say is the biggest loser of '26 is the Monroe Doctrine. I think that when historians look back on the Trump presidency, they're going to rewrite it. I think people have tried to minimize Trump's worldview as a Trump corollary. I don't think that's what this is. They even tried to minimize it by calling it the Don Ro doctrine. I don't think that's what this is. I think that there is a clear Trump doctrine that trumped the Monroe Doctrine. And I think that is the political loser because there is a huge body politic that has been built around the Monroe Doctrine. How do we view wars? How do we view our spheres of influence? How do we view economic multilateralism versus

• 22:06Chamath Palihapitiya?

  unilateralism? All of that is out the window. You know, we view this as hemispheric dominance. That's Trump. We view it as proactive and in very specific cases interventionist. We intervene against drug cartels. We control immigration. We secure vital assets. That was, you know, not really the scope of the Monroe Doctrine. We have more transactional relationships, quite honestly, which allows us to react in the moment. So I think the Monroe Doctrine is the biggest loser of 2026. Friedberg, you're a biggest loser 2026.

• 22:41David Friedberg?

  My biggest political loser of 2026 is the tech industry. I think AI and tech wealth have become the lightning rod for populism on both sides of the aisle. I think the right is fracturing a bit where this call it alliance between tech and MAGA seems to be getting a really strong challenge from the more populist movement. In the same sense, the left is turning hard on tech because of tech's alignment with the right. And so I think we're going to see in the midterms a really big referendum against the tech industry coming out of

• 23:14Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Good one. That's a great one. Can I tell you guys a little story from yesterday? I had a meeting with three very senior sitting senators before I flew back to California. These are Republican senators. And Friedberg, I was surprised. Exactly what you said. There is a couple of companies that have exacerbated their frustration. They view those companies, these are techs, the tech leaders of these companies, as just not trustworthy. And they've largely been grinfing these guys for a long time. And they're pretty frustrated with it. So to your point, it is palpable.

• 23:52David Sacks?

  Look, I can tell you that The natural ally for tech is with MAGA because we still believe in property rights and innovation. And if the Democratic Party is truly going progressive, which means socialist, they want to rewrite your relationship to property rights, whatever that means, and impose wealth taxes and their realized gains taxes and all the rest of it. So, look, I don't think tech has that much of a choice as Arnold Schwarzenegger said in one of those movies, "Come with me if you want to live."

• 24:21Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Come with me if you want to live.

• 24:23David Sacks?

  Yes.

• 24:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Get in the chopper.

• 24:25David Sacks?

  But let me say this, the reason why there's anger on the populist right is because they remember the censorship and the deplatforming and the shadow banning and all that kind of stuff. And what there needs to be is, I think there just needs to be some meetings, some truth and reconciliation that happens between some of these tech leaders and some of these conservative influencers.

• 24:45David Friedberg?

  Guess what, David Sacks? I know one guy who can help make that happen.

• 24:48David Sacks?

  No, I would, I would like to host some of these meetings in 2026 and get these people together. Because I think that the tech companies have either realized their mistake, or they were pushed into it in a lot of cases by the Biden administration.

• 25:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Get a gun to their head. Yeah.

• 25:03David Sacks?

  Get a gun to their head. Now, I also think that one other mistake they've made is, quite frankly, they've been donors to only left-wing causes. And so, if you listen to Cernovich's account, he's like, "Look, guys, you banned us, you cost us our livelihood for years."

• 25:20Chamath Palihapitiya?

  De-banked us.

• 25:21David Sacks?

  De-banked us. Where's the restitution? Or at least, at least start giving some support to our conservative cultural causes.

• 25:28Chamath Palihapitiya?

  By the way, you nailed it on the head. The senators that I talked to, that's exactly what they want. They just wanted an apology. Just be honest and say you did it.

• 25:35David Friedberg?

  This asset seizure tax proposal in California and the conversation about other states, I think is bringing a lot of people to that table, Sacks, at least the tech people, to say, "Wait a second, maybe I shouldn't have been only left donating over all these years. Maybe, maybe I shouldn't have done this." And I think, contrary to what people may think, it may actually be doing a lot more positive for the right side than the left by putting this forward. This may actually be catalyzing a big change in Silicon Valley.

• 26:07Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, and if you, if you think about it, if you were Zuckerberg, or you were, you know, the Google executives, and the FBI is telling you, "Hey, we need you to take care of these censorship issues, we need you to label these things," etc., you know, it puts you in a pretty tough situation if the FBI is calling you, if you're trying to do M&A, and then, you know, look now, M&A, under Trump, is on fire. We'll talk about that more in our prediction show. For me, I was going back and forth in my biggest political loser with these dopey Democrats who are centrists, and the new neocon Trump.

• 26:49Jason Calacanis?

  Now, I don't know if Trump will continue these neocon ways, so I'm gonna just align with Sacks here that the centrists Democrats are gonna be this year's biggest political losers.

• 27:02David Sacks?

  All right, well, now that you've mentioned twice that Trump is a neocon, I have to respond to this.

• 27:08Jason Calacanis?

  No, you don't, you don't have to, but go ahead.

• 27:09David Sacks?

  Okay, look, the, the problem with neocon regime change operations was, I'd say, threefold. Number one, the invasion. You have this giant invasion, land armies, huge numbers of people getting killed, took, you know, months or a year. Took them like a year to get Saddam, right? Number two, you then have an occupation, because whoever you then put in power only stays in power if you have American GIs there pointing the guns. So you end up with a 10 or 20-year occupation. And then, third, you have nation building, which is you end up spending trillions of dollars, basically trying to turn them into us so that our troops can leave. That was the mistake of Afghanistan and Iraq. But

• 27:51David Sacks?

  look, what has Trump done that is like any of those things? There's been no invasion, no occupation, and no nation building. This war, I guess, with Venezuela, if you wanna call it that, it was a flawless operation. It lasted three hours.

• 28:04Jason Calacanis?

  Fantastic, yeah.

• 28:05David Sacks?

  I mean, I woke up, and it was like, you know, the meme where it's like, "Wake up, honey." It's like, "Wake up, honey, Trump's won another war." It was over before it even started. They went in there, and they basically captured Maduro. No Americans were killed. It was an absolutely flawless operation, and they are bringing him to justice. By the way, he begged for it, and he's on tape, talking a lot of smack at rallies, saying, "Come get me," you know, calling the Americans chicken and so on. So in any event... He was begging for it. We can go into a lot more of the, the reasons for doing it and defending it, but I just don't think this is a neocon policy. And in fact, it's the Democrats who've been calling to put in this Nobel Prize winner that you interviewed Friedberg, right?

• 28:50David Sacks?

  What's her name? Maria Conchito Alonso?

• 28:53Jason Calacanis?

  Machado.

• 28:54David Sacks?

  Machado, okay. Anyway. Oh.

• 28:58Jason Calacanis?

  Hector Elizondo. I think it's Hector Elizondo.

• 29:01Speaker 00

  I think he did somebody from the Brat Pack.

• 29:04David Sacks?

  No, she was in Running Man, I think. Anyway.

• 29:08David Sacks?

  But.

• 29:10David Sacks?

  But.

• 29:10Speaker 00

  You're talking about the Cuba, Venezuela actress?

• 29:13David Sacks?

  I thought her name was Maria Conchito Alonso. Okay. Maria Corina Machado. Sorry. That's just what I thought of.

• 29:20Speaker 00

  You mean Miss World, Miss World Venezuela 1975 winner Maria?

• 29:24David Sacks?

  Look, the Democrats are criticizing the administration for not putting her in power. But look, here's the problem. Nobel Prizes don't keep people in power. Men with guns keep people in power and she doesn't have the men with guns. So it'd be American GIs there would have to be the guns to keep her in power. And the administration has not done that. They're looking to basically work with the existing regime. And the big reason why we got sucked into Iraq is because that whole debaffication process where we didn't just get rid of Saddam, we took out the entire elite of the country, which created a huge insurgency. So there's been nothing like that, J Cal, is what I'm trying to tell you. In this case, it's a whole different paradigm, is what I'm trying to tell you.

• 30:08David Sacks?

  We're gonna need a new name for it. Maybe Chamath is right. It's definitely not neocon.

• 30:12Jason Calacanis?

  Not neocon. Yeah, we might need a new branding for it. It depends on, you know, if Trump is cosplaying neocon when he says he's going to take Greenland, when he says he's going to take Colombia next, when he says he's going to take Cuba. He's certainly playing the character of neocon publicly here. And who knows? That could be Trump just positioning himself and anchoring future negotiations. But if I was telling you, you know, before the election, when you were saying, "Hey", Do not let certain people become president, Nikki Haley, et cetera, because they're neocons and they're going to go to war with Venezuela, they're going to go to war with Iran. Well, that's exactly what Trump has done. And as flawless as our troops did, and my lord, we have the greatest military ever. So just incredible job and shout out to them to do

• 30:54Jason Calacanis?

  this and lose no American lives was just unbelievable. And it just says something about the dedication of these individuals. But things can go wrong, no matter how good you are. We could be sitting here right now with 12 captured Delta Force, we could have 50 dead Americans.

• 31:10David Sacks?

  Where's the war?

• 31:11Jason Calacanis?

  But if that did, this is where you have to be intellectually honest. If we were dealing with a situation where they didn't pick up the target and we had lost American troops and God forbid they had taken hostages, we would be sitting here with a much different discussion. And so we have to be very careful.

• 31:26David Sacks?

  Of course, but we're not.

• 31:26Jason Calacanis?

  I give, we're not, I give Trump, but that is an equal possibility.

• 31:29David Sacks?

  This is like.

• 31:30Jason Calacanis?

  Certainly a non-zero possibility. Things can go sideways.

• 31:33David Sacks?

  You sound like when Sam Harris was saying that imagine if COVID actually killed a lot of people, then the conversation would be different. Well, it didn't. There was no war here. And by the way, with Denmark.

• 31:45Jason Calacanis?

  And let's hope there isn't. And let's hope there isn't. You know, this is why I'll give Trump a lot of credit. He has been strategic. I do give you that.

• 31:50David Sacks?

  Stick and move. Stick and move is the game.

• 31:52Jason Calacanis?

  I pray that he can continue this record streak.

• 31:56David Sacks?

  First of all, even if we took Greenland, it's not going to be, there's 30,000 people who live there. But I think it's more likely that we'll, we'll make a deal. I think we're going to make an offer they can't refuse.

• 32:06Jason Calacanis?

  Okay. Ken Howard, shout out to our guy Ken Howard. Maybe you can make a deal. Let's make a deal.

• 32:10David Sacks?

  Make them an offer they can't refuse.

• 32:11Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah. I mean, how much could it cost? I mean, there's nothing there. Biggest business winner for 2025. Looks like Friedberg picked robots and autonomous hardware, year of the robot, I think. If you include robotaxi there, you nailed it. Certainly next year will be the year of Optimus 2027. Chamath, you said dollar-denominated stable coins. I think, given what we've seen with regulation, that was spot on. Gavin, shout out to our friend Gavin, he said big businesses that use AI thoughtfully, another great one. I pick Tesla, which is at an all time high, and Google, which of all of the mag seven? Crushed.

• 32:53Jason Calacanis?

  Is the biggest winner and they did 65%. So I know both of those. We did, I think all of us crushed that one. Who do you have Friedberg as your biggest business winner prediction for 2026? Go ahead, Friedberg.

• 33:04David Friedberg?

  I couldn't decide. My number one is Huawei, which I've mentioned in the past. Out of China, I think Huawei's effort to partner with SMIC to go deeper in the chip stack. And they're just firing on all cylinders. I do think keep an eye on Huawei. Over the next year, it's, it's going to outperform expectations, at least the Western expectations. And the second is a poly market. I think poly markets evolved from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated. And I do expect that after the deal we saw with NICE that all of the exchanges, and we're already seeing this with Robin Hood and Coinbase, and we should expect something from NASDAQ this

• 33:47David Friedberg?

  year. Dina Friedman talked to us about this. But I do think that prediction markets could become not just markets, but also news. And I think poly markets just in such a position to have a breakout year.

• 33:58Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, great one. Chamath, biggest business winner for 2026 after yourself. Who do you got?

• 34:06Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yeah, it's hard. I mean, I will pick me.

• 34:09Jason Calacanis?

  Yep.

• 34:10Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's already done. It's already in the books.

• 34:13Jason Calacanis?

  Don't hurt your elbow. Don't hyperextend your elbow.

• 34:16Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Already in the books. So it's all downhill from here.

• 34:19David Sacks?

  Nick, we need to use that meme of Obama giving himself a medal.

• 34:24Jason Calacanis?

  Chamath is giving himself.

• 34:27Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I will pick copper.

• 34:29Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, copper.

• 34:31Chamath Palihapitiya?

  We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need. Again, in the Trump doctrine view of the world, that is no longer as multilateral as it was, and we need to have unilateral national security. And if you look through that lens, the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper. And the reason is that it is.

• 35:05Chamath Palihapitiya?

  At least as it stands today, the most useful, cheap, amenable, conductive material that we have, that material manifests in everything, from our data centers to our chips, to our weapon systems. It's just everywhere, everywhere, everywhere. And right now, Jason, we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed. And so I will pick copper. Sax, what do you got? Biggest business winner 2026, your prediction?

• 35:42David Sacks?

  I said the IPO. I think 2026 is going to be a big year for IPOs. I'm not going to say which ones. I think there's going to be a bunch of them, a bunch of successful ones. And I think we could see trillions of dollars of new market cap created of public companies. For a while, people were concerned that the number of public companies were shrinking. Public companies were actually being taken private. This is going to be a big reversal of that trend. So I think this is going to be part of that Trump boom will be the idea.

• 36:10Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Love that one. I like that one.

• 36:11Jason Calacanis?

  Great one. I went with, since I nailed the Mag7 for last year and picked the highest performer with Google, and I placed a bet on that, so I'm feeling pretty good about it. My prediction for 2026 is that Amazon is going to have a massive year as they continue to replace humans with robots. That's why. Here's a chart for you. I've been talking about this a little bit. I think this is the most important company to watch because Zooks, their self-driving is working, they're making great progress with it. And here, when you look at this chart, you can see they're essentially flat in terms of hiring humans and they're surging in deploying robots. And they did their whole PR com strategy of calling them cobots and donating to Toys for Tots, et cetera. I think they'll be the first corporate

• 36:55Jason Calacanis?

  singularity, which is to say, the first company to have more robots. Driving their bottom line than humans. So that's my prediction for 2026 is Amazon and I'm going to place a bet on that.

• 37:08David Sacks?

  My prediction is that J. Cal is such a luck box that he'll end up being right about Amazon, but not having anything to do with the reason he gave.

• 37:16Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, right. They'll hire a billion humans to go do something and it'll be for a different reason. I am a luck box. That is true.

• 37:22Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It'll just be better free cash flow and all of a sudden more people using AWS and J. Cal will be right.

• 37:28Jason Calacanis?

  Well, I actually, I think the reason is, if you just, if you think about it, I don't know if you guys have had this experience, but with the delivery business, which was kind of a dog for a long time, obviously AWS is crushing it. But that delivery business here in Austin, we get everything the same day. You're going to experience this, David. There are, because of the, I think the geography here and the ability to have depot centers very close, everything you order on Amazon comes within the same day.

• 37:53David Sacks?

  You know what? I've noticed that already. I've already started ordering things from Amazon. You're right. It was all same day. I'm like, wait, what is going on?

• 37:59Jason Calacanis?

  What it is is we have a lot of space, 15 miles outside of the city center, 20 cent, and they built these huge warehouses. So you just get everything within four hours. They're like, we'll be right there. It's very bizarre.

• 38:10Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So Jason, you'll buy like virtues at like 8 a.m. and it arrives by noon?

• 38:16Jason Calacanis?

  Yes, absolutely. Absolutely. And when you put your order in for ethics and morality, it just never shows up. I don't know. It's lost again. Who knows? It's just incredible. We're just both ends of the spectrum here. Moral, it's like, so I was like, hello, customer support. I ordered a moral compass two years ago. It still hasn't arrived. Okay. Biggest business loser. I love each month.

• 38:37Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It hit behind the 20 billion.

• 38:39Jason Calacanis?

  It did. It did. Absolutely. All I know is I got my bequeathed, so I hope your compass never shows up.

• 38:46David Sacks?

  You got your bequeath on that deal?

• 38:48Jason Calacanis?

  Well, Sandeep came to Besties and he wanted to collect all Besties. We all got to place a little bet.

• 38:54David Sacks?

  Well, by the way, by the way, I divested, I divested my Grok shares as part of joining the government back in like February or March.

• 39:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh, God.

• 39:03David Sacks?

  So.

• 39:03Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Oh, by the way, by the way.

• 39:05Jason Calacanis?

  Would that cost you like, what, the last triple up?

• 39:08David Sacks?

  No, it was a small position that came from Grok acquiring Sunny's old company. We didn't invest in Grok. So it wasn't big, but the point was.

• 39:16Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, it's just another example of you sacrificing for the country, which I give you a lot of credit for.

• 39:20David Friedberg?

  It's good for Saks to put that on the record.

• 39:22David Sacks?

  Yeah. Well, it's just so ridiculous because I'm accused of somehow doing this job for money when it just keeps costing me money.

• 39:28Jason Calacanis?

  It's negative money.

• 39:28David Sacks?

  XAI just raised an up round at twice the valuation from the last round and we had to divest that too. Yeah. No, no, we didn't set it up. Hold on. Let's be clear. We didn't set it out. We divested it.

• 39:43Jason Calacanis?

  So you place the bet and then before you get to collect the ticket, you lose the last double up or triple up.

• 39:49Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The economic cost to Saks will probably exceed a billion dollars by the time he leaves.

• 39:53David Friedberg?

  Personally, this is crazy. I mean, people need to know this. It's a very important thing to put on the record. I think it's important for people.

• 39:58Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Everybody should know. All these dumb reporters don't get it, but Saks has sacrificed financially. An enormous amount to work on behalf of the government and the people. That's, that's really amazing.

• 40:10David Sacks?

  It's fine. I wouldn't even say anything about it if it weren't for the fact that we got these mainstream media reporters lying and saying the opposite. That somehow this job is making me money.

• 40:18David Friedberg?

  Right.

• 40:19David Sacks?

  I wouldn't say I worried about it otherwise.

• 40:21Jason Calacanis?

  Our biggest business loser 2025, Gavin said federal government service providers. I guess because of Doge and them being held to the fire, feet to the fire there to give us a better deal. Old guard defense contractors like Boeing and Lockheed was yours, Friedberg.

• 40:40Jason Calacanis?

  And Chamath, you said the Mac seven, you expected a decrease in the record concentration. I said OpenAI, which would see a peak valuation. And obviously I got that wrong. What do you got this year, Friedberg? Who do you think is going to be the biggest business loser of this year?

• 40:55David Friedberg?

  To follow up on Chamath and my conversation at the Christmas dinner. I think the state governments are going to have a real problem with finding financing because what's going on with the exposes that are underway on waste, fraud and abuse in state agencies, I think is going to lead to a conversation that's going to cause folks to question the long-term solvency and operations because the response won't be, hey, let's cut out the waste, fraud and the abuse. The response is going to be, we got to keep it going. And that is what is going to give people fear is that if they did respond, call it equivocally to the discoveries that the governments did, then I think that there's an opportunity to continue to be able to borrow and access

• 41:38David Friedberg?

  capital markets. But I do worry a lot about state governments borrowing. I think the other thing that's going to hit the fan this year in state governments is all of these unrealized pension liabilities. I think when these numbers start to come out this year and a lot of people are now digging deep into it, folks are going to wake up and be like, holy, there's a ginormous hole in these states and their obligations.

• 41:58Jason Calacanis?

  Why does the government have to do these pensions? Why can't we do superannuation like Australia does? We have to get this out of the, I love that pick.

• 42:06David Friedberg?

  That's called a defined contribution instead of a defined benefit. And if you get this defined contribution model and then just have good management, it all works out. So this is basically the problem with social security. Social security is a defined benefit and then all the money just doesn't sit anywhere. It doesn't exist. If it was a defined contribution.

• 42:22Jason Calacanis?

  It's just a liability.

• 42:23David Friedberg?

  And let me, let me give a shout out. If it was defined contribution like Invest America accounts or Trump accounts as they're being called, and you put the money in and you see how much you have and every year you track it and that's what your retirement is going to be, just like we might have with our 401ks or IRAs, that is a system that actually has true solvency. Otherwise, it becomes this runaway train of liability and that's effectively what the states have set up and it's very dangerous.

• 42:44Jason Calacanis?

  And if we were to take government out of it and then every American just had to put 10, 12, 14% into their retirement account and it was forced, you'd have happy people who feel some agency in their lives, which the people of Australia do. Chama, who's your loser 2026?

• 43:03Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I will pick the software industrial complex. So these are the companies that sell licensed SaaS to the corporations of America. It's about a three to four trillion dollar a year economy. That is separated into three buckets. Bucket one, which is the smallest, is the initial licensing. That's probably five to 10%. Buckets two and three, where all the money is made, is what's called maintenance and migration. Which is, how do I just maintain this big bulky license that I just bought for 300 billion dollars? As an example. Or how do I migrate it from product A to product B?

• 43:46Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Those last two buckets represent 90% of all the dollars in revenue that's generated in software. And because of the advancement of these models and the advancement of these technological techniques that we are all uncovering, building agents, building systems. I think you're going to see that total economic opportunity shrink and contract aggressively. The companies will still be able to do their business. It'll just be at a much, much lower incremental revenue. The customers will be able to do their business. They'll have a lot more flexibility and a lot of upstarts, I think, will have opportunity. I'm speaking my book, obviously, but I'm seeing it on the ground.

• 44:29Jason Calacanis?

  Because you have a company building software.

• 44:32Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Our entire business, 8090's business, has basically migrated to disrupting maintenance and migration patterns. I cannot describe how much opportunity there is. It's very tactical, mundane, not very sexy work, but it's incredibly lucrative. And so I expect that that thing is going to shrink. It's going to impact SaaS companies, public SaaS companies particularly, quite severely.

• 44:54Jason Calacanis?

  Where do you get sacks for your biggest business loser of 2026 prediction?

• 44:57David Sacks?

  For me, we already talked about this, but it was California because of the wealth tax and also the onerous regulations driving business and capital out of the state. I hope you guys are right that it does not make the ballot. If it does, I think there will be a panic and rush for the exits. Regardless, there's two major refineries closing by the spring. Higher gas prices will be the result. I just think that the politicians are not doing a good enough job in California dispelling the fears and the actual hostility of the business environment.

• 45:27Chamath Palihapitiya?

  That's a great one. And I went with.

• 45:30Jason Calacanis?

  Young, white collar workers in America, I think they're going to be the biggest business loser. I think it's getting really hard for them to get entry level jobs. I'm seeing that all over the place because companies are having an easier job just automating with AI than training up Gen Z graduates. That's my belief. That's why I'm launched, founded University of Recontenance. If you are a young person, you got to be resilient. You're going to have to be self-reliant, independent of what Mondami, Mondami says about collectivism. It's easier to use AI than it is to train up. And we don't have professional development. That needs to come back. I just did an interview with the CEO of McKinsey, which you may have seen on the feed.

• 46:11Jason Calacanis?

  And this is the big challenge in corporate America is they're taking out the bottom two or three rungs and automating stuff. And we really need to develop young people so that they have a path to take the CEO jobs eventually. And I don't think they're going to have an easy time doing that. That's why I think all young people should start companies. I am talking my own book. I am talking about founder dot university, please apply Japan, Saudi, and in America. We're going to help you build companies. Thank you for my promo.

• 46:37David Friedberg?

  Jason, I got a text last night from a friend and it's in response to your comments about young people not being able to find jobs because of AI, which is the statement you've made a couple of times. He said, went to a roundabout of 50 CEOs of public and private companies and asked everyone if they're hiring junior engineers. Everyone said they are still, but not as much as before. Because during COVID, every college lowered the bar on admissions and the talent just isn't as good anymore. My friend went on and he said, you should talk about this to counter J Cal's point about AI taking young people's jobs. We see this with financial analysts and we see this with salespeople we hire. The Gen Z kids are all really challenging to hire because of cultural issues, not because we're not hiring them due to AI.

• 47:22David Friedberg?

  So we try and hire older people primarily to fill those roles. So there's a real interesting point that he was making. I texted a couple of their friends to ask them their opinion. And I've heard this concurrence, Jake how, which is like, a lot of people think that recent grads out of college, and this may be a COVID era phenomenon, they just. Don't seem to have the temperament, the motivation, the organizational skills.

• 47:45Jason Calacanis?

  Executive function.

• 47:47David Friedberg?

  Executive function. And by the way, some of our friends who I've talked to who have kids graduating college, there's even a conversation about none of these kids are motivated to get jobs or to make money. There's a very weird phenomenon in the youth right now. And this may be a COVID phenomenon, and it may be a cultural thing that's part of the long form of what's going on in our society. Or it may be a socialist trend, or it may be a populist trend, or it may just be that people have gotten too wealthy and the nation has truly split and you can't climb the ladder anymore. There's a bunch of things going on here, but I do not think, and I think a lot of people are echoing this, J Cal, that challenges that young people are having finding employment is purely rooted in an AI and automation phenomenon, but it may be a cultural phenomenon. And so I just put that on the plate for you to consider.

• 48:29Jason Calacanis?

  I do think it's both. I do think it is partially what you're saying is that maybe these young folks have, you know, they're just either entitled or their parents have enough money for them to skate and go sideways and maybe not be as career motivated. It could be a social thing. It could be a COVID thing. It could be all of those, and certainly multi-factor. I just know what I see on the ground, which is, you know, so many companies coming to me saying, we can replace the bottom third of these tasks and that those bottom third of tasks are typically done by young people out of school. So I think both things are probably true to a certain extent and time will tell. I do think it's going to be challenging and continue to be challenging. And you see that in the numbers

• 49:13Jason Calacanis?

  from, you know, Google, Uber, Coinbase, all these companies are doing more with less. And maybe that's just the nature of AI. Maybe the first thing you do is cut costs and maybe the second thing you do is hire people who know how to use these tools. If you are a young person who uses AI tools, you're going to find a job if you're a young person who isn't motivated and doesn't use AI tools. You're going to have a hard time. Let's go with the biggest deal. Last year's predictions for biggest deal for 2025. Traditional auto OEM consolidation, that was you, Chamath. I think that we haven't seen exactly the consolidation, but we have seen those businesses come apart. So I think it's, I give you definitely two thirds of our credit there. Gavin said a tidal wave of M and A. I think he's not wrong there. That has started to happen, certainly.

• 49:57Jason Calacanis?

  Friedberg, you said massive compute build out deals. Of course, you nailed that one. I said consolidation amongst the on-demand economy. That hasn't happened, but we do see a lot of deals occurring. And I said also Apple would buy Warner Brothers. I got that like a, I guess that wound up going to Netflix. So I give myself a half point for that. What do you have as your biggest deal for 2026, David Sacks?

• 50:21David Sacks?

  Well, I don't want to get, I don't want to get too specific here in terms of names of companies and that sort of thing. But what I would say is that I think there was a breakthrough in the last couple of months in terms of these coding assistants where they've been around for a while, but there seems to have been another level of quality achieved just in the last month or so. And you're really starting to hear, I mean, maybe a lot of it is hype, but there is, I think a lot of people are getting very excited about the potential here. And part of it is coding, part of it is just tool use. You can download the programs and so it has access to your file drive and it can take actions on your computer. This trend feels to me like chatbots did at the end of 2022, going into 23, where it's

• 51:04David Sacks?

  like people were really hyped about it, but then it continued to play out, play out in the next year. And so I think these, let's call it coding assistance slash tool use, I think will get bigger and bigger this year.

• 51:16Jason Calacanis?

  Friedberg, what do you got? Biggest deal?

• 51:19David Friedberg?

  Russia, Ukraine. I think it's going to settle out this year. I think there's a lot of motivating factors to get it settled out this year, economic and other political factors. But I do think it's going to settle out this year and it's going to bring a bit more stability to that region. And there's a whole reset that's underway this year, I think, in terms of geopolitics and where the powers all sit.

• 51:38Jason Calacanis?

  Trump can stop that war. He would be two for two.

• 51:41David Sacks?

  That's a good one.

• 51:42David Friedberg?

  I think this one's going to settle.

• 51:43Jason Calacanis?

  That would be, that would be great. He may not have done it on day one, but if he gets it done in, in, you know, year two, that's good enough for me. Chamath? Biggest deal 2026, what do you got?

• 51:53Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's not a specific deal, but it's an approach. I think that M and A cannot happen. And so it's the IP license M and A workaround. And I think you're going to see hundreds of billions of dollars of these kinds of deals. So this is the deal that Google did with Character AI. It's the same thing that they did.

• 52:11Jason Calacanis?

  Microsoft did it.

• 52:12Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Microsoft did it. It's obviously what Nvidia did with Grok. Why are these deals happening? Well, if you just look at what Facebook tried to do, they tried to buy Manus for $2.5 billion. Manus was a Chinese company that then left China and essentially rebuilt itself as a Singaporean business. The Chinese have now said, we're going to look at this. They are going to actively import export controls. They're going to actively look at which technologies and even which researchers are working on things that are critical enough that it just can't go abroad in this existential fight that they believe they're in with the United States. The United States is in equivalent such position. All of this leads me to believe that traditional M and A is effectively dead. I think it's going to be impossible to get a large transaction done. So how will you do it?

• 52:57Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You'll do what Sundar did, you'll do what Satya did, you'll do what Jensen did. You'll do what Mark did with Scale AI. These huge licensing deals that basically replace M and A. And I think that that as a deal type will get better and more refined and tighter and better executed. We were the third or fourth of these kinds of deals. And even the third or fourth iteration was quite good. By the time that you're into the middle part of next year and you've done 15 or 20 of these things. I think the lawyers that work on these things and the accountants will just be bulletproof.

• 53:31Jason Calacanis?

  The tax treatment is not ideal, but the speed at which you can do them is phenomenal. Because the next day, somebody like Sandeep can be working for Jensen, which is what Jensen wants. They want the talent. Zuckerberg wants the talent working there the next day.

• 53:45Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And the IP.

• 53:46Jason Calacanis?

  And the IP, of course. You know, for 2026, I think we're going to see some massive M and A. It doesn't matter to me how it occurs, but I do think we're going to see a 50 billion plus deal. And I think it could be one of the mag seven, an Apple, a Meta, a Microsoft or an Amazon going out and trying to buy. XAI, MISTRO, PROPLEXITY, ANTHROPIC, one of those four comes to mind. I know most of them probably want to go public and go it alone, but I think an offer could come in and during that race for which six or seven large language models. And man, it is a, it is a battle where they are moving up and down the rankings and beating each other out, you know, on the testing.

• 54:27Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Can I ask you a question?

• 54:27Jason Calacanis?

  And I think one of them's gonna, I think one of them's gonna go for it. I, I think it could wind up being Apple, Meta, or Amazon who buys an Anthropic or a Proplexity.

• 54:36Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I started where you were, but this is why I went to this deal type as the biggest business winner, because if any of those companies tried to buy, let's just say Anthropic, I think it's three years of antitrust minimum. It's worse than when Microsoft tried to buy Activision, because that was a niche product. And even that took almost two years and like three or four months, if I'm getting it right. It, or about two years. It's a huge slog, because it's a, it's about global coordination of multiple regulators.

• 55:07Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah. Did you have to get through the EU and everything else?

• 55:10Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And eventually, one of them takes the lead pole position. But in the Microsoft case, it wasn't just one. You had to navigate China, you had to navigate Europe. So I, I agree with you, because I think there's companies with so much cash on their balance sheets that are effectively getting debased every day. The markets will start to punish these companies. It just seems like you're right. There's going to be a hundred billion dollar transaction. I just suspect it'll end up as an IP license.

• 55:37Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah. And I think President Trump, one of his great strengths is that he moves quickly. Man, what a first year. Whether you like the decisions or not, he, he makes decisions. I think this is one of the things that Democrats are learning, is that you gotta actually get things done for the American people. I think he might instruct our government to let M and A be great again. And that would be great for American exceptionalism. These companies do need to merge and to continue to grow. And we should go, try to get from a Mag 7 to a Mag 17. We need more bigger companies with bigger footprints, taking on global markets. Most contrarian belief, most contrarian belief, people like this one. I said OpenAI loses its lead in the AI race.

• 56:22Jason Calacanis?

  And in fact, that has happened. If you look at the arenas and you look at their market share, they are being challenged. Chamath, you said the banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks. Gavin said one year of 5% plus GDP growth at one point over the next couple of years. Well done to Gavin. Friedberg, you said socialism rose back. Another amazing prediction. What's your prediction for this year since you crushed it last year, Friedberg? Go ahead.

• 56:49David Friedberg?

  My prediction is based on the premise that I think there is going to be this revolution in Iran and the Ayatollahs are going to be out. That's not the contrarian belief. I think that's the standard belief and I think that is going to happen and that's the premise. But a lot of people think that Iran is part of the destabilizing force in the Middle East. And I do think that there is already an anticipation of the turnover with the ruling parties in Iran. There is already this brewing conflict amongst the other Arab states. So I think that between UAE, Saudi, Qatar and this fraction in Yemen. And then I don't know if you guys have followed, but there's this kind of emerging independence movement for Somaliland, which is kind of north of Somalia.

• 57:33David Friedberg?

  That there may be more conflict brewing in the Middle East than anyone anticipates for this year. That will not necessarily involve Israel and/or Iran. It will actually be amongst the other Gulf states as they vie for influence and power. And that the contrarian point may in fact be that Iran has been a stabilizing force in that region. And by removing Iran and by changing over Iran and they become this kind of independent democratic state. And this particularly is going to be heightened as there's going to be this battle for who's going to take care of the Palestinians as the two-state solution emerges. And what's the role that Jordan's going to have to play versus Egypt versus Saudi? And it's going to lead to a lot of questions about resource allocation.

• 58:15David Friedberg?

  So I think that this year could end up being a little bit nastier than folks anticipate in the Middle East as Iran turns over.

• 58:23Jason Calacanis?

  So actually got a contrarian belief for 2026?

• 58:26David Sacks?

  Yes, I said that AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it. I would refer you to Aaron Levy's post called Jevon's Paradox for Knowledge Workers. And the point of Jevon's Paradox is that as the cost of a resource goes down, the aggregate demand for it actually increases because you discover more and more use cases. So I think this will certainly happen with code. In the past, it's been very expensive to generate code. You have to hire engineers, there's not enough of them. It's an expensive resource. So the amount of software generated in the economy was limited by that. I think it's going to increase massively now because the cost of generating code is coming down so much. But there's other examples, too. You take a field like radiology.

• 59:12David Sacks?

  That's frequently cited as a profession that AI is going to put out of business. That's not what the data shows. The data shows that the number of radiologists is increasing. Why? Because the number of scans that people want to make is increasing. And it's true that AI can do some of the work, but you still need a doctor to prompt the AI, to interpret the AI, to validate it. So you get more efficient, the cost of scans goes down. And instead of it being a super speciality that happens very rarely, that you need like a referral on top of a referral to get, it becomes something that's normalized and everyone starts doing it and you start getting more and more scans that leads to better and better outcomes. So I think there's going to be a lot of those examples through the economy and we're going to look back

• 59:53David Sacks?

  and see that the job loss narrative was not only wrong, but we actually got job gains.

• 1:00:01Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, and for those of you who want to understand Jevon's Paradox a little more, you can look at something like electricity or steel or concrete. When we lowered the cost of those things, people didn't use less of it. They built skyscrapers and we had more routes for more airplanes to take you on more vacations. And that went from being something only rich people did to everybody. So Jevon's Paradox is definitely at work. What do you got, Chamath? What's on your contrarian belief?

• 1:00:26Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Gosh, I have two. Well, I'll give you them both and you can just see. My contrarian belief, number one, is I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla. And I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.

• 1:00:42David Friedberg?

  Oh, my God, I love that.

• 1:00:44Jason Calacanis?

  Well, he's talked about that before. He's talked about having a holding company for years of all of the collection. You could put Neuralink in there, too, right, Chamath? You could put in the Boring Company as well.

• 1:00:56Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Sure, I'm just giving you my contrarian take. There will be no IPO for SpaceX. I think it will just be, it specifically will be a reverse merger.

• 1:01:03Jason Calacanis?

  There you go.

• 1:01:05Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The second contrarian take is that I think the central banks

• 1:01:11Chamath Palihapitiya?

  will realize that there are limitations to gold and limitations to Bitcoin and will, as a result, seek out a completely new cryptographic paradigm that they can control on their balance sheet, that is fungible, that is tradable, and that is completely secure and private. And I think the reason why that privacy needs to exist is that for the sovereignty of a country, you need to be in a position where you have assets that are not easily disclosed

• 1:01:51Chamath Palihapitiya?

  to anybody else, friends or enemies alike. And then separately, cryptographically, if you're going to own a currency, you need to hedge against the eventual risk in the next five to 10 years that there's a quantum chip that can challenge the existing cryptographic schemes that are used.

• 1:02:13Jason Calacanis?

  And for my contrarian, I was thinking about going with OpenAI losing their lead and not being the number one company again, because I do think that will be the trend, that they will have the, they'll continue to give up. Their market share to other players, including Google and Gemini and XAI, et cetera. But I'm going to go with a pretty wild card here. I think the standoff with China is going to be largely resolved. And I think President Trump's, when he makes his visit there, I don't know if you're going to go on that one. Sax, but I think you should be included in it, obviously, because of the AI race. I do think that the standoff and the issues around Taiwan are going to be resolved.

• 1:02:52Jason Calacanis?

  And I think this could be the signature issue of Trump's second term is that we work out a working relationship where both China and America win without one of us losing. Best performing asset, best performing asset. Last year's prediction, I said Mag 7, which was up 22% versus the S and P 500 at plus 17. Chamathie were long CDS for a potential run on a major bank. You said it was a long shot. Gavin said high bandwidth memory makers like Micron, which was up 230%. That was a great call. And Friedberg, you said Chinese tech stocks and ETFs, Alibaba is up 85%.

• 1:03:32Jason Calacanis?

  Chinese tech ETF up 47% versus the S and P 500 at plus 17. So I guess that means Gavin Friedberg and then myself. What do you got for this year's best performing asset, Friedberg?

• 1:03:47David Friedberg?

  Polly market, polymarkets on a tear, network effects, replacing media, replacing markets.

• 1:03:54Jason Calacanis?

  Congrats to Shane at Polly Market. Do you have a best performing asset for 2026? Go ahead, Chamath.

• 1:03:59Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I would pick a basket of critical metals.

• 1:04:03Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, basket of critical metals. What do you got, Sax?

• 1:04:07David Sacks?

  It's getting a little bit redundant for me, but I just had the expanding super cycle in tech. I mean, again, this is just another facet of the boom. But actually, let me just show you some data that literally just came out. I feel like this is breaking news.

• 1:04:18Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, breaking news.

• 1:04:19David Sacks?

  Nick, can you pull this up? U.S. productivity just surged 4.9%. The strongest reading in nearly six years. And this is the news item is that the Atlanta Fed, their forecast for Q4 GDP just climbed to 5.4%. Can that be right?

• 1:04:38Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Yes.

• 1:04:39David Sacks?

  Can we get a fact check on that?

• 1:04:40Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Five to six is, I think, where we're going to see it, guys. We're going to see some sixes get printed.

• 1:04:46David Sacks?

  I mean,

• 1:04:47Jason Calacanis?

  January 8th, 2026, Atlanta Fed's GDP now model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4% significant jump from the previous estimate of 2.7% on January 5th.

• 1:04:59Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You have to remember that there's going to be 150 basis point correction in Q4 GDP because of the government furlough, okay? So, let's say that GDP was probably, call it four, you're going to see a print of two and a half. So you need to readjust that because now all the government workers are back, they're recounted in GDP. If you look through 2026, there's a handful of things that I think people do not understand well. Number one, all of non-farm payrolls has been completely reset and rebased. And the reason why is because of immigration. So what used to be 100 to 150 number print is now a 40 to 50 number print. Why is that important?

• 1:05:40Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Because when you look through earnings and you look at the lower 25% quartiles of earnings growth, they're off the charts. There's all of these anecdotal examples now of earnings just exceeding expectations. There was an article in the front page of the Wall Street Journal yesterday about Ford trying to pay mechanics $160,000 a year and having 5,000 openings. So to Saks's point, we are a coiled spring, closing the border, plus adding productivity lifts through AI and other things have created a growth dynamic in the United States that will really start to show itself in 26.

• 1:06:23Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So I think that you should be not short the US economy here. It is ready to rip.

• 1:06:31Jason Calacanis?

  And adding to all that, and just giving my pick, I think if we are in a rate cut environment and the tailwinds keep happening and people have a little bit of cash laying around, my pick for best performing asset will be the Robinhood Polly Market Prize picks, gambling, wagering space because people will be able to have a little cash around to make some bets. You could put Coinbase in there too, I guess.

• 1:06:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  By the way, the corollary to what we just talked about, if you see five and a half and six and a half prints and these employment numbers, a lot of this affordability stuff may be not as accurate as we think it is. Everybody right now is trying to figure out, okay, well, where are the pockets of unaffordability? And there are clearly some. But those are narrow and they can be fixed. But on a broad based basis, what Saks is is right. You have this combination of earnings growth, productivity growth.

• 1:07:25Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And now this overlay where you have these tax cuts that are going to hit in 26. My gosh, I mean, asset prices in general, I think, will do well. Now, you'll also see potentially home prices correct because if the president is successful in making sure Blackstone can buy houses, but on the other side, people are earning more and they can enter with interest rates that are now 100 to 150 basis points lower. You'll see a boom in housing.

• 1:07:50Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Where it's not the corporations that are buying the houses, but individuals. There's a lot of variables here that can, that can break in America's favor. This is why I think 6% is not unrealistic, which would be absolutely nuts.

• 1:08:01Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, let's move on to the worst performing asset. Last year's predictions for worst performing asset of 2025. I said legacy car companies and real estate. Both of those turned out to be correct. Chamath you said enterprise SaaS and the software industrial, industrial complex. Again, that looked correct as well. Gavin said enterprise SaaS. And Friedberg, you said vertical SaaS. So we had three SaaS and I had legacy car companies.

• 1:08:25David Friedberg?

  Let me give you, Jake, yeah, let me just give you some numbers on that to show you. ServiceNow down 30%, Workday down 18%, DocuSign down 23%, Dropbox down 9% and Box down 6%. While the S and P was up 17%. I think it's worth highlighting, like it was a challenging year for this enterprise SaaS.

• 1:08:44Jason Calacanis?

  Especially with the per seat pricing as opposed to consumption based pricing. If you have a static number of employees or less employees, like many of these companies do, there's just less seats to sell. So their whole growth was based on land and expand. You land the client and then you expand the client because they're adding staff. If you're not adding staff, you can't, you know, you don't have more people using Salesforce. Okay. So let's talk about our worst performing asset predictions for 2026. Who do you got? Saks worst performing asset of 2026?

• 1:09:15David Sacks?

  Well, I just said California luxury real estate because of the overhang of the wealth tax and all the things we're talking about.

• 1:09:22Jason Calacanis?

  That one hits close to home, I think.

• 1:09:23David Sacks?

  Now, yes, it does. Actually, what I'm hoping for is a dead cat bounce. If you guys are right that the ballot initiative fails, then the overhang will be lifted and maybe I can

• 1:09:36Jason Calacanis?

  Clear some real estate.

• 1:09:37David Sacks?

  Clear some.

• 1:09:39Jason Calacanis?

  It's not easy being, it's not easy being right sometimes. Freiburg, what do you got?

• 1:09:45David Friedberg?

  I mean, Zach, Zach, what, like, what, what's your discount price on that asset right now? I mean, like, I might make a bid, you know, if you give me a, oh, give me a good clearing.

• 1:09:55David Sacks?

  You got a hundred million dollars laying around?

• 1:09:57David Friedberg?

  Yeah, I'm not paying a hundred.

• 1:09:58Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, here we go. Bestie negotiations occurring.

• 1:10:01David Friedberg?

  All right.

• 1:10:02Jason Calacanis?

  Give them the bestie price, the buy it now bestie price.

• 1:10:04David Friedberg?

  No, no, no, no. Okay. By the way, you know, San Francisco has that insane luxury tax, which they have in LA too. You gotta pay 5% on any piece of real estate over 25 million.

• 1:10:15David Sacks?

  6% in San Francisco. Do you know that?

• 1:10:16David Friedberg?

  Which makes it even harder for these high-end places to trade.

• 1:10:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The way you're saying if I, if I bought Sax's house for a hundred, I'd have to spend a hundred and six. Oh, he has to pay 6%.

• 1:10:26Jason Calacanis?

  Six, yeah.

• 1:10:26Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And then you gotta pay your broker 6%. I mean, they're just basically freezing the market.

• 1:10:30Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, not the buyer.

• 1:10:32David Friedberg?

  Well, you can negotiate who pays it.

• 1:10:34David Sacks?

  The 5%, you know, quote unquote mansion tax has just killed LA real estate. You talk to brokers down there. Cause people used to flip houses a lot more. Now you just can't afford to do that.

• 1:10:44Jason Calacanis?

  Unintended consequences, folks.

• 1:10:45David Sacks?

  Really bad for the market.

• 1:10:46David Friedberg?

  What, you're telling me taxes slowed down transaction volume and reduced the growth of the economy? That's crazy. I had no idea. Zach, you should write that down. We should do a whole thing on that.

• 1:10:55Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, maybe we should.

• 1:10:56David Friedberg?

  That is crazy. I'd know, yeah.

• 1:10:57Jason Calacanis?

  Somebody make a note.

• 1:10:58David Friedberg?

  Yeah.

• 1:11:00Jason Calacanis?

  So worst performing asset, Chamath, what do you think? Worst performing asset?

• 1:11:04Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I won't say the worst performing, but I think a very poor performing asset will be hydrocarbons. I just think that the trend in oil is inexorable and it's down. And the reason it's down is irrespective of your thoughts on climate change, the trends on electrification and energy storage.

• 1:11:29Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Are just unstoppable. And so what that does is it shrinks the surface area where oil is useful. It's not like a cataclysmic thing, but it's sort of a melting iceberg where does it see $65 or $45? And I would say on a per barrel basis, I think it's more likely to see 45 than 65.

• 1:11:52Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, I went with the US dollar in different permutations of how you can buy it because our debt continues to grow unabated.

• 1:12:01Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The debasement trade, J Cal, J Cal owning the

• 1:12:05Jason Calacanis?

  I just think it's going to be hard for, you know, the USD because we're talking about, we've been at it, I think we're going to add 2 trillion in debt this year. And then if we're increasing, and again, I know Trump says, President Trump says a lot of things, but if we're increasing the military budget by 50%, that means that's going to be straight to our debt line. So it's going to be harder and harder for the dollar. It doesn't mean that America is not going to do great, but the value of the American dollar is going to be challenged, which we see in people moving to gold and silver and perhaps copper. Okay. If you could give us your worst performing asset of 2026.

• 1:12:40David Friedberg?

  It would be Netflix if they don't close the Warner Brothers deal. I do think Netflix's service is being challenged from all sides with deep content libraries. And I think we're seeing a great commoditization happening. I've also heard directly from folks in Hollywood, the creators of new content that people would prefer not to work with Netflix. They only pay creators cost plus 10% now. And so as a creator, you're actually better off not doing deals with Netflix anymore. So their content library is going to shrink because of the natural economic forces underway. Alternative, if they do close on Warner Brothers, I think they've got some good runway in terms of that content library and they'll be fine. And in that case, my worst performing asset would be traditional media stocks. And I

• 1:13:24David Friedberg?

  do think that they're going to underperform. There is just such an incredible variety of high quality content that's emerging from independent creators that are leveraging their own distribution platforms through YouTube and others. And I think that traditional media is going to continue to be deeply challenged as we've seen, for example, just in the news segment with the rise of citizen journalism. So that's the, that's what I would kind of

• 1:13:45Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah. And, you know, the Netflix observation, I think, is, was well founded because they're also, in terms of expanding their library, they just did a deal with Bill Simmons, I see, and with

• 1:13:58Jason Calacanis?

  Barstool Sports to move over their sports shows, podcasts, video shows from YouTube, and then going to take them off YouTube and put them on Netflix exclusively. So that's a really interesting trend as well to keep an eye on. Okay.

• 1:14:11David Sacks?

  By the way, before we move off asset, just on best performing asset, there's one category we didn't talk about, but I think it's kind of interesting, which is the category of assets that qualify for accelerated depreciation, capital equipment.

• 1:14:23Jason Calacanis?

  Ah, yes, yes, yes, yes.

• 1:14:24David Sacks?

  That includes things like planes, so forth. There's now 100% accelerated depreciation boats. For certain kinds of capital equipment because of the big beautiful bill and, you know, it kind of goes along with some of the tax cuts that we talked about. But man, that is making those markets super hot right now.

• 1:14:39Jason Calacanis?

  Absolutely. Try buying a plane these days. Very difficult. P P N E.

• 1:14:43David Friedberg?

  No, Jason, it's not planes. It's like caterpillar.

• 1:14:46Jason Calacanis?

  No, no, it's everything.

• 1:14:46David Friedberg?

  Tractors. Yeah. It, yeah, it's generators. It's Siemens. This is why Siemens stock is through the roof. All of this capital equipment, you get to write it off 100% year one. It's creating a massive infrastructure build out in the U.S. So

• 1:14:58Jason Calacanis?

  Absolutely.

• 1:14:59David Friedberg?

  There's some companies that are huge beneficiaries of this, obviously, because they're the sellers of the capital equipment.

• 1:15:04Jason Calacanis?

  And of course, this is one of the reasons GDP is going up is people are actually investing in business again. Okay. Most anticipated trend.

• 1:15:11David Friedberg?

  By the way, this is the corollary of the statement that if you reduce taxes, the economy grows. So.

• 1:15:16Jason Calacanis?

  Here we go.

• 1:15:17David Friedberg?

  Yeah.

• 1:15:18Jason Calacanis?

  Most anticipated trend of 2025. I said the wrath of Linacon ending and M and A and IPOs being back. Get some credit there. Chamath, you said the end of the deep state. I think you had a lot of credit there. Gavin said AI makes more progress per quarter in 2025 than it did in 2023. That's a great one. Free bird, you said the nuclear power build out. I think you get some credit there too. Yeah.

• 1:15:40David Friedberg?

  Not sure. Not sure. We got some work to do there.

• 1:15:43Jason Calacanis?

  Massively, massively short nuclear. You're still short nuclear, but I know my guy, Howard Lutnick, when I talked to him, I talked to Howard Lutnick as well. He said he's all in on nuclear.

• 1:15:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Free bird, can I tell you why I'm short nuclear? I think that we're in the very delicate part of the cycle where they've missed the window. So by the time that they deliver working SMRs at scale, the problem is that the marginal cost of electricity will effectively be zero and it'll have gone to zero because of a combination of. Solar and storage as well as coal and oil. And so it's just in a very delicate place where the large form factor nuclear reactors make zero economic sense by 2032 or 2035, which is when through the Byzantine permitting and building, they get it done. And then the SMRs, by the time that they get it done, they may not be able to meet the market either. So I think it's a very complicated moment for nuclear, actually, not scientifically, economically, just does not hang together mathematically.

• 1:16:40David Friedberg?

  I think that's if you assume no shift in the demand curve. And I think that like if you, if you look at China going to eight terawatts of production and by 2040 or whatever it is, and we're sitting at one and we're not moving, we are going to have a big catch up to do. And the question is, can we really build out two, three terawatts of electricity generation? How are we going to build out two to three terawatts of electricity generation? The amount of land that you would need with solar and what's it going to take to get all of that installed and so on? And by the way, there's a lot of this stuff in China. If you look at all the big solar build outs that they did where they're ripping it up now, this is a longer conversation, but I really do question whether we can pin everything on solar. It's going to be a mix of stuff.

• 1:17:24David Friedberg?

  And so your point may be right that in the near term, to meet the current kind of demand curve, nuclear is going to be economically challenged, but at some point here, there's an inflection that we have to meet.

• 1:17:33Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So what's your most anticipated trend of 2026, Friedberg?

• 1:17:37David Friedberg?

  Iran becoming an independent democratic state. I think I'm just speaking generally anticipated. I think a lot of people are anticipating that that's going to happen this year. There's an uprising in the streets. There is a weakening of the ayatollahs and there seems to be a moment underway.

• 1:17:54Chamath Palihapitiya?

  And the demographics are destiny. There's a lot of young people in Iran and they do not want to live under the current rule. They want to be free.

• 1:18:01David Friedberg?

  But there is a major economic problem in Iran in terms of affordability. You think we have an issue of affordability in the U.S. In Iran, it's very hard for people just to buy their basic necessities, basic needs. The majority of people, so that's why they are taking to the street. There is a real economic crisis underway that is motivating this turnover. Every year, everyone like anticipates some big change in the Middle East, but this could be the biggest rewriting of the Middle East in a long time.

• 1:18:25Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Okay, Sax, what do you got?

• 1:18:27David Sacks?

  For category.

• 1:18:28Jason Calacanis?

  Most anticipated trend of 2026. What do you got, Sacks?

• 1:18:32David Sacks?

  I said auditing government spending at all levels. Hmm, that's a good one. That's a good one. Decentralized Doge. Love. Yes. Let a thousand Nick Shurleys bloom.

• 1:18:43Jason Calacanis?

  Love. Let's do it. Audit everything.

• 1:18:45David Sacks?

  Audit everything. We need to normalize independent audits across the board.

• 1:18:48Jason Calacanis?

  Whistleblowers. Let's go.

• 1:18:50David Sacks?

  It is not acceptable for Gavin Newsom, for example, to prohibit audits as he did with homeless spending. All government spending needs to be opened up and audited by the public. We need people to see where it's going. And that that's just gotta happen.

• 1:19:03Jason Calacanis?

  Love it. The Pentagon. When's the Pentagon's? When are they gonna pass an audit, right? I mean, that's one of our biggest line items. Let's get them to be audited. Hey, there's something President Trump could do.

• 1:19:11David Sacks?

  They're actually at least trying. They're at least failing the audit.

• 1:19:16Jason Calacanis?

  They're at least failing you.

• 1:19:18David Sacks?

  Gavin Newsom's prohibiting the audit.

• 1:19:19Jason Calacanis?

  Start where you're prohibiting them first. How about that? Yeah, I mean, just audit everything, I think, would be. I love it. What do you got, Chum?

• 1:19:26Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I have a corollary to Friedberg's, which is, I think it's the expansion of this Trump doctrine. Independent of your politics, if you're an economic actor, you own a business, you invest in the stock market, whatever it is, you speculate cryptocurrencies, you must understand the movements on the chessboard in 2026. The best framework that I have used to organize myself is this idea of unilateralism, economic resilience. It's just a ginormous trend. And I think the output of it is going to be massive GDP prints on top of everything else.

• 1:20:00Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, and I think I'm gonna stick with my last year's prediction going into 2026 again. The wrath of Lina Khan ending. We saw the M and A train start with Grok, obviously, Netflix and Warner Brothers, Google and Wiz. So many deals are ready to be done and they're starting to pop off in M and A. We can debate what structure they are and regulators, et cetera, but they're happening. But I'll go with IPOs coming back. Right now, you've got to anticipate one of the following two will file. SpaceX, Android, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI. I think two of those file, and it is going to be gangbusters. The public wants these shares. They're buying them in the secondary markets. We have half as many publicly traded companies. The public

• 1:20:44Jason Calacanis?

  would like to participate, and this is something Trump can uniquely do that the Democrats were trying to stop and slow down, which was M and A and IPOs. I think this will be the year of the mega IPOs. It's going to be very exciting for Silicon Valley. It's going to be very exciting for the employees at these companies and for the pension funds and the endowments that own shares in these companies. They're going to be able to take that money and put it to good use, hopefully. So SpaceX, Android, Stripe, Anthropic, OpenAI, those are on the shortlist, obviously, of ones that could go public this year. All right, fun one we like to do is the most anticipated media. That's a fun one, you know? What are you looking forward to in 2026? Last year, I said Superman and Andor,

• 1:21:28Jason Calacanis?

  season two. Turns out Superman did great. Andor did amazing. It's the best TV show of the 21st century, I think. Chamath, you said enormity of the files that will be declassified. Epstein files, halfway there. JFK files, we haven't seen those. Gavin said 1923, season two. I don't even know what that is, but okay.

• 1:21:48David Friedberg?

  That's a Taylor, that's a Taylor Sheridan.

• 1:21:50Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, that's the Taylor one, yeah, yeah. You watching Landman? Landman's pretty great. Friedberg, you said AI video games. What do you got this year? Friedberg, you love the media. You're a cinephile. What are you looking forward to in media in 2026?

• 1:22:07David Friedberg?

  This isn't as much as what I'm looking forward to, but I do think the big trend in media is going to be the citizen journalism doing exposes. I think that we're just at the beginning of the expose marathon. Man on the street, pushing stuff, getting cameras in people's faces. The work of journalism has been decentralized, and I think there's going to be so much more that's going to be kind of shared and covered this year.

• 1:22:32Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, do you have one?

• 1:22:34David Friedberg?

  And by the way, the difference I would say in terms of what Nick Shirley is doing and what we've seen maybe in the past, but it's going to be the new trend, is much of the citizen journalism in the past has been to some degree, a little bit more passive. It's sort of like, hey, I caught this thing and I observed it. But now there are people that are going to actively take a camera and say, hey, I'm going to go discover this thing. I'm going to go deep on it. And that's what I think we're going to see happen in a big way this year.

• 1:22:55Jason Calacanis?

  Well, and there's a monetization path. You have Substack where people can give donations, GoFundMes, and on top of that, YouTube allowing you and X allowing you to share revenue on this particular category, which they previously didn't, as Nick Shirley pointed out, means there is a path to profitability there. Get more clicks, get more views, you make more money, and then you can reinvest it. So I think I like your choice a lot. Chamath, you have something you're anticipating?

• 1:23:19Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Exactly the same thing as Freebrooke. I'll just double down and...

• 1:23:22Jason Calacanis?

  Okay. And what about you, Sax? You got something you want to double down on investigative journalism?

• 1:23:27David Sacks?

  No, I thought we were talking about entertainment here.

• 1:23:31Jason Calacanis?

  Well, yeah, it's okay. These guys zigged where we zagged, but...

• 1:23:34David Friedberg?

  One of my weird like things that I watch on TikTok that I get stuck on and TikTok just keeps showing me them is these auditing videos. Have you guys ever seen these? First Amendment auditors? So these are people who take a camera, they stand on the street, and they just point the camera into someone's store or into a bank's window, and they just film the people in the bank.

• 1:23:53Jason Calacanis?

  And then they wind up spraying each other.

• 1:23:56David Friedberg?

  There's always people that come out. They're like, you can't do that. You're not allowed to do that. They're like, okay, I think I would like you to leave. I don't want to talk to you. And they just do this, and they instigate people to call the police. And what they're doing is they're auditing whether the police understand First Amendment rights. And then how the police react is basically the end of the video. Sometimes the police are like, you can't do that. And they're like, yes, I can. Call a supervisor. And then they teach the police officer that you're allowed to stand in public places and film. Otherwise, they're just like, hey, they go to the business owner, and they tell the business owner, this guy's allowed to do this. Leave him alone. I don't know why, but these videos are so entertaining.

• 1:24:29Jason Calacanis?

  Well, there's tension. There's a lot of tension there, and there's something, freedom of speech, which is the First Amendment for a reason.

• 1:24:35Chamath Palihapitiya?

  The store owner comes out, sometimes tries to physically confront the guy, but then you'll have like a woman walking with her like two-year-old child, and then she'll get into it, and she'll be like, hey, don't violate his constitutional rights. That's the best.

• 1:24:50David Friedberg?

  It's so good. You never know what's gonna happen. Each one of them is like a whole new adventure. I don't know why. It's such an interesting form of content. I like, love watching it.

• 1:24:58Jason Calacanis?

  It's a uniquely American phenomenon, too. Yeah, um, establish your freedom, your, your First Amendment rights and, and they even go into like the really dicey ones where they go to like the parking lot of a prison or into the lobby of a police station and do it and it gets pretty spicy. What do you got, Sacks? You got, you got any media you're looking forward to? These guys are going First Amendment investigative journalism, yada, yada. What do you got?

• 1:25:24David Sacks?

  Well, the new Christopher Nolan movie is coming out, The Odyssey. Looks interesting.

• 1:25:27Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Great call. Great call.

• 1:25:29Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, that's mine.

• 1:25:30Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Great call. What is it? What is it? What is that? What is that about? The Odyssey? Oh, come on. No, Homer's Odyssey?

• 1:25:37Jason Calacanis?

  Yes, but as interpreted by the great director of our time, Christopher Nolan.

• 1:25:42Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Have any of you idiots actually read The Odyssey? This is not great. I'm sorry, but The Odyssey is a terrible book.

• 1:25:51Jason Calacanis?

  Hmm. All right.

• 1:25:54Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, so we're gonna get some good comments there.

• 1:25:55Chamath Palihapitiya?

  You guys are all such wannabe poser intellectuals.

• 1:25:58Jason Calacanis?

  No, it's just Christopher Nolan is just great. It's IMAX. It's gonna be epic.

• 1:26:02Chamath Palihapitiya?

  It's trash. That book is blech.

• 1:26:05Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, you know.

• 1:26:06David Sacks?

  You don't like IMAX pentameter?

• 1:26:10Chamath Palihapitiya?

  So, so the idea of some confused person making a movie about it is also just a, how do I short that? Okay, that is actually, can I short that? Can I short that movie?

• 1:26:20Jason Calacanis?

  I'm on a poly market. I'm sure there will be. You could bet on the, bet on the box office.

• 1:26:24Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Pull it up, Nick. I bet zero.

• 1:26:26Jason Calacanis?

  Okay, it's gonna be a lot more than zero, I'm sure. I, I'm also a, um, a big fan of Timothy Chalabey and Dune Part Three is coming out. I also like Avengers Doomsday.

• 1:26:38Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Wait, Dune Three's coming? Oh, I love Dune.

• 1:26:41Jason Calacanis?

  Dune Part Three's coming out.

• 1:26:42Chamath Palihapitiya?

  I love Dune One and Two so, so much.

• 1:26:44Jason Calacanis?

  Two was great. I think one was a little bit of slow burn.

• 1:26:47David Sacks?

  Doom's Day will be good. Doomsday, actually, I go with that.

• 1:26:50Jason Calacanis?

  Avengers Doomsday is gonna be, I think, fantastic. Robert Downey Jr. As Doctor Doom, setting up Secret Wars, and then you're gonna tie up all the previous Marvel strings into one bow.

• 1:27:00Chamath Palihapitiya?

  Look at, look at, look at The Odyssey's zero.

• 1:27:01David Sacks?

  They're gonna use, they're gonna use Doomsday to bring back all the characters they killed.

• 1:27:06Jason Calacanis?

  Hey, besties, uh, here's a little something.

• 1:27:10Jason Calacanis?

  I think we're about to hit today 1 million YouTube subscribers before we do our Netflix deal and take the show off of YouTube. We hit a million before we

• 1:27:20David Friedberg?

  Wasn't it supposed to happen like a year and a half ago? We're gonna have like a million subscriber party a year and a half ago. You know, ask me, ask me what I think. Tell me why. Tell me why sex.

• 1:27:29David Sacks?

  Cause we never tell our subscribers to hit the like button or smash the subscribe button, whatever. Yeah. Every other podcast I watch on YouTube and I watch them all. They're always like, hit the like button, hit the like button.

• 1:27:41Jason Calacanis?

  Oh God. Well, you know what they're doing now too is the, the, the big trend now is to just do 10 minute quick hits as news breaks. So you, you, this is just flooding your channels. Ask me what I think about getting to a million subscribers. Jomoff, any thoughts on this seminal moment for the All In Pod hitting 1 billion subscribers on YouTube? Okay. I'm sorry. 1 million. You're welcome.

• 1:28:04David Friedberg?

  You're welcome. You're welcome.

• 1:28:08David Sacks?

  What's, what's this week at?

• 1:28:11Jason Calacanis?

  Oh, this week in Star Wars is quarter million. Don't worry about it. Um, it's a niche show. Don't worry.

• 1:28:15David Sacks?

  Not bad.

• 1:28:16Jason Calacanis?

  It's a fragile, not bad, not bad. Hey, listen, I love doing it. Uh, the reasons

• 1:28:19David Sacks?

  So there's four of us. There's four of us. One of you. So we have four times the subscribers.

• 1:28:25Jason Calacanis?

  Yeah, something like that. Yeah. Hey, listen, one of the great things you, you learn in media is when you build a super team, a super band, you know, you can actually do better than everybody individually. So collectively we can do better. And listen, it's not for me to say. Listen, you, I think you've adjusted to being Ringo Starr incredibly. Uh, listen, I, everybody says the same thing to me. Without the show, this would be propaganda and it would be, uh, the Trump's personal, uh,

• 1:28:54David Friedberg?

  Who says that to you?

• 1:28:55Jason Calacanis?

  Everybody, everybody.

• 1:28:57David Friedberg?

  Comes to the house to walk moose.

• 1:28:58Jason Calacanis?

  Everybody says, I'm the drink. That's, I'm the stir in the drink. I'm the, I'm the thing that stirs the drink.

• 1:29:03David Sacks?

  You're keeping the private equity wives watching. Great job.

• 1:29:06Jason Calacanis?

  Absolutely. I'm keeping them in. All the private equities love it.

• 1:29:09David Sacks?

  For every left winger you, that you keep watching the pod, we probably lose five.

• 1:29:15Jason Calacanis?

  Oh no. You could, I can tell you certainly. The people, the MAGA people, they love hating me. They love hating me and they love to come back every week to hate watch me and my takes. Watch. They do. They, just like they hate watch you, Chamath. Uh. The private. But it's for a different reason. They tune in to hate you and hate me. Uh, well, listen, it's been a great year. It's been a great year. Great job, besties. We kept the band together for one more year. Let's do a poly market. Chances, the all in podcast makes it to 2027. Honestly, honestly, it's not a hundred percent. It's not. It's never a hundred percent. Never a hundred. It's never a hundred percent. We'll do the best we can. You guys love the show. Smash the like button.

• 1:29:57Jason Calacanis?

  Comment, link, subscribe, whatever you want to do, write a review. Tell everybody how much you love Chamath sweaters and we'll see you. Love you boys. On another amazing all in podcast. Bye bye.

• 1:30:12David Sacks?

  We'll let your winners ride.

• 1:30:15Speaker 00

  Rain Man David Sacks.

• 1:30:19Speaker 00

  And it said, we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, West Coast. Queen of Kinoa.

• 1:30:32Speaker 00

  Besties are gone.

• 1:30:35Speaker 00

  That's my dog taking a piss in your driveway.

• 1:30:42Chamath Palihapitiya?

  We should all just get a room and just have a one big huge orgy because they're all just, it's like this, like sexual tension, but they just need to release somehow.

• 1:30:50Speaker 00

  What you're the bee. What you're a bee.

• 1:30:56Speaker 00

  We need to get merch. Besties are back.